Archaeological evidence of resource utilisation of the great whales over the past two millennia: A systematic review protocol

Archaeological faunal remains provide key insights into human societies in the past, alongside information on previous resource utilisation and exploitation of wildlife populations. The great whales (Mysticete and sperm whales) were hunted unsustainably throughout the 16th - 20th centuries (herein defined as the modern period) leading to large population declines and variable recovery patterns among species. Humans have utilised whales as a resource through carcass scavenging for millennia; however, increasing local and regional ethnographic and archaeological evidence suggests that, prior to the modern period, hunting of the great whales was more common than previously thought; impacts of earlier hunting pressures on the population ecology of many whale species remains relatively unknown. Hunting guided by traditional ecological knowledge may have been sustainable and likely originated in societies that also incorporated opportunistic use of stranded individuals. The collation of georeferenced zooarchaeological data of the great whales between the 1st - 20th centuries CE worldwide will provide insight into the timescale and distribution of resource utilisation of the great whales and how this varied within and between societies, and may have changed over time. By comparing regions of known resource utilisation and breeding and feeding grounds of current-day whale populations, this information will subsequently be used to infer regions where whale populations were possibly lost or extirpated prior to detailed historical records. This systematic review protocol also provides a template for archaeologists, ecologists, and historians interested in using faunal remains to infer historical ecology and resource use of wild animal populations. The transparency of our data collection approach provides opportunities for reproducibility and comparability with future datasets.

Holocene deglaciation drove rapid genetic diversification of Atlantic walrus

Rapid global warming is severely impacting Arctic ecosystems and is predicted to transform the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of Arctic species, though these linkages are poorly understood. We address this gap in knowledge using palaeogenomics to examine how earlier periods of global warming influenced the genetic diversity of Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus), a species closely associated with sea ice and shallow-water habitats. We analysed 82 ancient and historical Atlantic walrus mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes), including now-extinct populations in Iceland and the Canadian Maritimes, to reconstruct the Atlantic walrus' response to Arctic deglaciation. Our results demonstrate that the phylogeography and genetic diversity of Atlantic walrus populations was initially shaped by the last glacial maximum (LGM), surviving in distinct glacial refugia, and subsequently expanding rapidly in multiple migration waves during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. The timing of diversification and establishment of distinct populations corresponds closely with the chronology of the glacial retreat, pointing to a strong link between walrus phylogeography and sea ice. Our results indicate that accelerated ice loss in the modern Arctic may trigger further dispersal events, likely increasing the connectivity of northern stocks while isolating more southerly stocks putatively caught in small pockets of suitable habitat.

The prelude to industrial whaling: identifying the targets of ancient European whaling using zooarchaeology and collagen mass-peptide fingerprinting

Taxonomic identification of whale bones found during archaeological excavations is problematic due to their typically fragmented state. This difficulty limits understanding of both the past spatio-temporal distributions of whale populations and of possible early whaling activities. To overcome this challenge, we performed zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry on an unprecedented 719 archaeological and palaeontological specimens of probable whale bone from Atlantic European contexts, predominantly dating from ca 3500 BCE to the eighteenth century CE. The results show high numbers of Balaenidae (many probably North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)) and grey whale (Eschrichtius robustus) specimens, two taxa no longer present in the eastern North Atlantic. This discovery matches expectations regarding the past utilization of North Atlantic right whales, but was unanticipated for grey whales, which have hitherto rarely been identified in the European zooarchaeological record. Many of these specimens derive from contexts associated with mediaeval cultures frequently linked to whaling: the Basques, northern Spaniards, Normans, Flemish, Frisians, Anglo-Saxons and Scandinavians. This association raises the likelihood that early whaling impacted these taxa, contributing to their extirpation and extinction. Much lower numbers of other large cetacean taxa were identified, suggesting that what are now the most depleted whales were once those most frequently used.

Population dynamics of Baltic herring since the Viking Age revealed by ancient DNA and genomics

The world's oceans are currently facing major stressors in the form of overexploitation and anthropogenic climate change. The Baltic Sea was home to the first "industrial" fishery ∼800 y ago targeting the Baltic herring, a species that is still economically and culturally important today. Yet, the early origins of marine industries and the long-term ecological consequences of historical and contemporary fisheries remain debated. Here, we study long-term population dynamics of Baltic herring to evaluate the past impacts of humans on the marine environment. We combine modern whole-genome data with ancient DNA (aDNA) to identify the earliest-known long-distance herring trade in the region, illustrating that extensive fish trade began during the Viking Age. We further resolve population structure within the Baltic and observe demographic independence for four local herring stocks over at least 200 generations. It has been suggested that overfishing at Øresund in the 16th century resulted in a demographic shift from autumn-spawning to spring-spawning herring dominance in the Baltic. We show that while the Øresund fishery had a negative impact on the western Baltic herring stock, the demographic shift to spring-spawning dominance did not occur until the 20th century. Instead, demographic reconstructions reveal population trajectories consistent with expected impacts of environmental change and historical reports on shifting fishing targets over time. This study illustrates the joint impact of climate change and human exploitation on marine species as well as the role historical ecology can play in conservation and management policies.

Ancient DNA evidence for the ecological globalization of cod fishing in medieval and post-medieval Europe

Understanding the historical emergence and growth of long-range fisheries can provide fundamental insights into the timing of ecological impacts and the development of coastal communities during the last millennium. Whole-genome sequencing approaches can improve such understanding by determining the origin of archaeological fish specimens that may have been obtained from historic trade or distant water. Here, we used genome-wide data to individually infer the biological source of 37 ancient Atlantic cod specimens (ca 1050-1950 CE) from England and Spain. Our findings provide novel genetic evidence that eleventh- to twelfth-century specimens from London were predominantly obtained from nearby populations, while thirteenth- to fourteenth-century specimens were derived from distant sources. Our results further suggest that Icelandic cod was indeed exported to London earlier than previously reported. Our observations confirm the chronology and geography of the trans-Atlantic cod trade from Newfoundland to Spain starting by the early sixteenth century. Our findings demonstrate the utility of whole-genome sequencing and ancient DNA approaches to describe the globalization of marine fisheries and increase our understanding regarding the extent of the North Atlantic fish trade and long-range fisheries in medieval and early modern times.

Ancient DNA reveals a southern presence of the Northeast Arctic cod during the Holocene

Climate change has been implicated in an increased number of distributional shifts of marine species during the last century. Nonetheless, it is unclear whether earlier climatic fluctuations had similar impacts. We use ancient DNA to investigate the long-term spawning distribution of the Northeast Arctic cod (skrei) which performs yearly migrations from the Barents Sea towards spawning grounds along the Norwegian coast. The distribution of these spawning grounds has shifted northwards during the last century, which is thought to be associated with food availability and warming temperatures. We genetically identify skrei specimens from Ruskeneset in west Norway, an archaeological site located south of their current spawning range. Remarkably, ¹⁴C analyses date these specimens to the late Holocene, when temperatures were warmer than present-day conditions. Our results either suggest that temperature is not the only driver influencing the spawning distribution of Atlantic cod, or could be indicative of uncertainty in palaeoclimate reconstructions in this region. Regardless, our findings highlight the utility of aDNA to reconstruct the historical distribution of economically important fish populations and reveal the complexity of long-term ecological interactions in the marine environment.

Walruses on the Dnieper: new evidence for the intercontinental trade of Greenlandic ivory in the Middle Ages

Mediaeval walrus hunting in Iceland and Greenland-driven by Western European demand for ivory and walrus hide ropes-has been identified as an important pre-modern example of ecological globalization. By contrast, the main origin of walrus ivory destined for eastern European markets, and then onward trade to Asia, is assumed to have been Arctic Russia. Here, we investigate the geographical origin of nine twelfth-century CE walrus specimens discovered in Kyiv, Ukraine-combining archaeological typology (based on chaîne opératoire assessment), ancient DNA (aDNA) and stable isotope analysis. We show that five of seven specimens tested using aDNA can be genetically assigned to a western Greenland origin. Moreover, six of the Kyiv rostra had been sculpted in a way typical of Greenlandic imports to Western Europe, and seven are tentatively consistent with a Greenland origin based on stable isotope analysis. Our results suggest that demand for the products of Norse Greenland's walrus hunt stretched not only to Western Europe but included Ukraine and, by implication given linked trade routes, also Russia, Byzantium and Asia. These observations illuminate the surprising scale of mediaeval ecological globalization and help explain the pressure this process exerted on distant wildlife populations and those who harvested them.

An accurate assignment test for extremely low-coverage whole-genome sequence data

Genomic assignment tests can provide important diagnostic biological characteristics, such as population of origin or ecotype. Yet, assignment tests often rely on moderate- to high-coverage sequence data that can be difficult to obtain for fields such as molecular ecology and ancient DNA. We have developed a novel approach that efficiently assigns biologically relevant information (i.e., population identity or structural variants such as inversions) in extremely low-coverage sequence data. First, we generate databases from existing reference data using a subset of diagnostic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with a biological characteristic. Low-coverage alignment files are subsequently compared to these databases to ascertain allelic state, yielding a joint probability for each association. To assess the efficacy of this approach, we assigned haplotypes and population identity in Heliconius butterflies, Atlantic herring, and Atlantic cod using chromosomal inversion sites and whole-genome data. We scored both modern and ancient specimens, including the first whole-genome sequence data recovered from ancient Atlantic herring bones. The method accurately assigns biological characteristics, including population membership, using extremely low-coverage data (as low as 0.0001x) based on genome-wide SNPs. This approach will therefore increase the number of samples in evolutionary, ecological and archaeological research for which relevant biological information can be obtained.

Historical Demographic Processes Dominate Genetic Variation in Ancient Atlantic Cod Mitogenomes

Ancient DNA (aDNA) approaches have been successfully used to infer the long-term impacts of climate change, domestication, and human exploitation in a range of terrestrial species. Nonetheless, studies investigating such impacts using aDNA in marine species are rare. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), is an economically important species that has experienced dramatic census population declines during the last century. Here, we investigated 48 ancient mitogenomes from historical specimens obtained from a range of archeological excavations in northern Europe dated up to 6,500 BCE. We compare these mitogenomes to those of 496 modern conspecifics sampled across the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Our results confirm earlier observations of high levels of mitogenomic variation and a lack of mutation-drift equilibrium—suggestive of population expansion. Furthermore, our temporal comparison yields no evidence of measurable mitogenomic changes through time. Instead, our results indicate that mitogenomic variation in Atlantic cod reflects past demographic processes driven by major historical events (such as oscillations in sea level) and subsequent gene flow rather than contemporary fluctuations in stock abundance. Our results indicate that historical and contemporaneous anthropogenic pressures such as commercial fisheries have had little impact on mitogenomic diversity in a wide-spread marine species with high gene flow such as Atlantic cod. These observations do not contradict evidence that overfishing has had negative consequences for the abundance of Atlantic cod and the importance of genetic variation in implementing conservation strategies. Instead, these observations imply that any measures toward the demographic recovery of Atlantic cod in the eastern Atlantic, will not be constrained by recent loss of historical mitogenomic variation.

Clinical and molecular characteristics and treatment outcomes of advanced right-colon, left-colon and rectal cancers: data from 1180 patients in a phase III trial of panitumumab with an extended biomarker panel

BACKGROUND

Primary tumour location (PTL) is being adopted by clinicians to guide treatment decisions in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Here we test PTL as a predictive marker for panitumumab efficacy, and examine its relationship with an extended biomarker profile. We also examine rectal tumours as a separate location.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

mCRC patients from the second-line PICCOLO trial of irinotecan versus irinotecan/panitumumab (IrPan). PTL was classified as right-PTL, left-PTL or rectal-PTL. PTL was assessed as a predictive biomarker for IrPan effect in RAS-wild-type (RAS-wt) patients (compared with irinotecan alone), then tested for independence alongside an extended biomarker profile (BRAF, epiregulin/amphiregulin (EREG/AREG) and HER3 mRNA expression).

RESULTS

PTL data were available for 1180 patients (98.5%), of whom 558 were RAS-wt. High HER3 expression was independently predictive of panitumumab overall survival improvement, but PTL and EREG/AREG were not. IrPan progression-free survival (PFS) improvement compared with irinotecan was seen in left-PTL [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.61, P = 0.002) but not right-PTL (HR = 0.98, P = 0.90) (interaction P = 0.05; RAS/BRAF-wt interaction P = 0.10), or in rectal-PTL (HR = 0.82, P = 0.20) (interaction P = 0.14 compared with left-PTL; RAS/BRAF-wt interaction P = 0.04). Patients with right-PTL and high EREG/AREG or HER3 expression, had IrPan PFS improvement (high EREG/AREG HR = 0.20, P = 0.04; high HER3 HR = 0.33, P = 0.10) compared with irinotecan. Similar effect was seen for rectal-PTL patients (high EREG/AREG HR = 0.44, P = 0.03; high HER3 HR = 0.34, P = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

RAS-wt patients with left-PTL are more likely to have panitumumab PFS advantage than those with right-PTL or rectal-PTL. However, an extended biomarker panel demonstrated significant heterogeneity in panitumumab PFS effect within a tumour location. AREG/EREG and HER3 mRNA expression identifies patients with right-PTL or rectal-PTL who achieve similar PFS effect with panitumumab as left-colon patients. Testing could provide a more reliable basis for clinical decision making. Further validation and development of these biomarkers is required to optimise routine patient care.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN identifier: ISRCTN93248876.

Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines

BACKGROUND

Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients' risk.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors.

METHODS

We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age- and sex-adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six-level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71-4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23-2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76-0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70-0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study.

CONCLUSIONS

This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self-assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically-assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions.

Is there a causal relationship between vitamin D and melanoma risk? A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Several preclinical studies have identified the antiproliferative effects of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D; vitamin D]. Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is essential for vitamin D synthesis yet increases the risk of melanoma. Observational studies on the association of vitamin D levels with melanoma risk have reported inconclusive results, and are difficult to interpret owing to the potential confounding from the dual role of UVR.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether there is a causal association between genetically predicted 25(OH)D concentrations and melanoma using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.

METHODS

We performed MR using summary data from a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of melanoma risk, consisting of 12 874 cases and 23 203 controls. Five single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with 25(OH)D concentration - rs12785878, rs10741657, rs2282679, rs6013897 and rs116970203 - were selected as instrumental variables. An inverse variance weighted method was used to access the evidence for causality. MR results from the melanoma meta-analysis were combined with results from an MR study based on a melanoma risk GWAS using UK Biobank data.

RESULTS

A 20 nmol L^-1 decrease in 25(OH)D was not associated with melanoma risk [odds ratio (OR) 1·06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·95-1·19]. Results from the UK Biobank were concordant with this, with meta-analysis of our and UK Biobank-derived MR causal estimates showing no association (OR 1·02, 95% CI 0·92-1·13 for a 20 nmol L^-1 decrease).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that vitamin D levels may not be causally associated with the risk of melanoma. What's already known about this topic? Antitumour activity of vitamin D has been identified in preclinical studies. Observational studies link vitamin D deficiency with an increased risk of a range of cancers. There is a growing public interest for vitamin D supplementation. Observational studies of melanoma are fraught with difficulties because while higher ultraviolet radiation levels increase vitamin D levels, such exposure is also associated with increased melanoma risk. Results from observational studies are inconclusive regarding the effect of vitamin D on melanoma risk. What does this study add? Using Mendelian randomization, an approach to causal inference, which is analogous to a natural randomized controlled trial, we found no causal association between vitamin D levels and melanoma.

Unlocking the potential of ancient fish DNA in the genomic era

Fish are the most diverse group of vertebrates, fulfil important ecological functions and are of significant economic interest for aquaculture and wild fisheries. Advances in DNA extraction methods, sequencing technologies and bioinformatic applications have advanced genomic research for nonmodel organisms, allowing the field of fish ancient DNA (aDNA) to move into the genomics era. This move is enabling researchers to investigate a multitude of new questions in evolutionary ecology that could not, until now, be addressed. In many cases, these new fields of research have relevance to evolutionary applications, such as the sustainable management of fisheries resources and the conservation of aquatic animals. Here, we focus on the application of fish aDNA to (a) highlight new research questions, (b) outline methodological advances and current challenges, (c) discuss how our understanding of fish ecology and evolution can benefit from aDNA applications and (d) provide a future perspective on how the field will help answer key questions in conservation and management. We conclude that the power of fish aDNA will be unlocked through the application of continually improving genomic resources and methods to well-chosen taxonomic groups represented by well-dated archaeological samples that can provide temporally and/or spatially extensive data sets.

An environmental (pre)history of European fishing: past and future archaeological contributions to sustainable fisheries

This paper explores the past and potential contribution of archaeology to marine historical ecology. The primary focus is European fishing of marine and diadromous taxa, with global comparisons highlighting the wider applicability of archaeological approaches. The review illustrates how study of excavated fish bones, otoliths and shells can inform our understanding of: (a) changes in biogeography, including the previous distribution of lost species; (b) long-term fluctuations in the aquatic environment, including climate change; (c) the intensity of exploitation and other anthropogenic effects; (d) trade, commodification and globalisation. These issues are also relevant to inform fisheries conservation and management targets. Equally important, the long (pre)history of European fishing raises awareness of our ecological heritage debt, owed for centuries of wealth, sustenance and well-being, and for which we share collective responsibility. This debt represents both a loss and a reason for optimism, insofar as it is a reservoir of potential to be filled by careful stewardship of our rivers, lakes, seas and oceans.

Tracking Five Millennia of Horse Management with Extensive Ancient Genome Time Series

Horse domestication revolutionized warfare and accelerated travel, trade, and the geographic expansion of languages. Here, we present the largest DNA time series for a non-human organism to date, including genome-scale data from 149 ancient animals and 129 ancient genomes (≥1-fold coverage), 87 of which are new. This extensive dataset allows us to assess the modern legacy of past equestrian civilizations. We find that two extinct horse lineages existed during early domestication, one at the far western (Iberia) and the other at the far eastern range (Siberia) of Eurasia. None of these contributed significantly to modern diversity. We show that the influence of Persian-related horse lineages increased following the Islamic conquests in Europe and Asia. Multiple alleles associated with elite-racing, including at the MSTN "speed gene," only rose in popularity within the last millennium. Finally, the development of modern breeding impacted genetic diversity more dramatically than the previous millennia of human management.

Ancient DNA reveals the chronology of walrus ivory trade from Norse Greenland

The importance of the Atlantic walrus ivory trade for the colonization, peak, and collapse of the medieval Norse colonies on Greenland has been extensively debated. Nevertheless, no studies have directly traced medieval European ivory back to distinct Arctic populations of walrus. Analysing the entire mitogenomes of 37 archaeological specimens from Europe, Svalbard, and Greenland, we here discover that Atlantic walrus comprises two monophyletic mitochondrial (MT) clades, which diverged between 23 400 and 251 120 years ago. Our improved genomic resolution allows us to reinterpret the geographical distribution of partial MT data from 306 modern and nineteenth-century specimens, finding that one of these clades was exclusively accessible to Greenlanders. With this discovery, we ascertain the biological origin of 23 archaeological specimens from Europe (most dated between 900 and 1400 CE). These results reveal a significant shift in trade from an early, predominantly eastern source towards a near exclusive representation of Greenland ivory. Our study provides empirical evidence for how this remote Arctic resource was progressively integrated into a medieval pan-European trade network, contributing to both the resilience and vulnerability of Norse Greenland society.

The chronology of reindeer hunting on Norway's highest ice patches

The melting of perennial ice patches globally is uncovering a fragile record of alpine activity, especially hunting and the use of mountain passes. When rescued by systematic fieldwork (glacial archaeology), this evidence opens an unprecedented window on the chronology of high-elevation activity. Recent research in Jotunheimen and surrounding mountain areas of Norway has recovered over 2000 finds-many associated with reindeer hunting (e.g. arrows). We report the radiocarbon dates of 153 objects and use a kernel density estimation (KDE) method to determine the distribution of dated events from ca 4000 BCE to the present. Interpreted in light of shifting environmental, preservation and socio-economic factors, these new data show counterintuitive trends in the intensity of reindeer hunting and other high-elevation activity. Cold temperatures may sometimes have kept humans from Norway's highest elevations, as expected based on accessibility, exposure and reindeer distributions. In times of increasing demand for mountain resources, however, activity probably continued in the face of adverse or variable climatic conditions. The use of KDE modelling makes it possible to observe this patterning without the spurious effects of noise introduced by the discrete nature of the finds and the radiocarbon calibration process.

The globalization of naval provisioning: ancient DNA and stable isotope analyses of stored cod from the wreck of the Mary Rose, AD 1545

A comparison of ancient DNA (single-nucleotide polymorphisms) and carbon and nitrogen stable isotope evidence suggests that stored cod provisions recovered from the wreck of the Tudor warship Mary Rose, which sank in the Solent, southern England, in 1545, had been caught in northern and transatlantic waters such as the northern North Sea and the fishing grounds of Iceland and Newfoundland. This discovery, underpinned by control data from archaeological samples of cod bones from potential source regions, illuminates the role of naval provisioning in the early development of extensive sea fisheries, with their long-term economic and ecological impacts.

Next-generation sequencing identifies germline MRE11A variants as markers of radiotherapy outcomes in muscle-invasive bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

Muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) can be cured by radical radiotherapy (RT). We previously found tumour MRE11 expression to be predictive of survival following RT in MIBC, and this was independently validated in a separate institute. Here, we investigated germline MRE11A variants as possible predictors of RT outcomes in MIBC, using next-generation sequencing (NGS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The MRE11A gene was amplified in germline DNA from 186 prospectively recruited MIBC patients treated with RT and sequenced using bar-coded multiplexed NGS. Germline variants were analysed for associations with cancer-specific survival (CSS). For validation as a prognostic or predictive marker, rs1805363 was then genotyped in a cystectomy-treated MIBC cohort of 256 individuals. MRE11A mRNA isoform expression was measured in bladder cancer cell lines and primary tumour samples.

RESULTS

Carriage of at least one of six (five novel) rare variants was associated with the worse RT outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 4.04, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.42-11.51, P = 0.009). The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs1805363 (minor allele frequency 11%), was also associated with worse CSS (per-allele HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.34-3.28, Ptrend = 0.001) following RT in MIBC, with a gene-dosage effect observed, but no effect seen on CSS in the cystectomy cohort (Ptrend = 0.89). Furthermore, rs1805363 influenced relative MRE11A isoform expression, with increased isoform 2 expression with carriage of the rs1805363 minor A allele.

CONCLUSIONS

Germline MRE11A SNP rs1805363 was predictive of RT, but not of cystectomy outcome in MIBC. If successfully validated in an independent RT-treated cohort, this SNP could be a useful clinical tool for selecting patients for bladder-conserving treatment.

Spatial variability in sulphur isotope values of archaeological and modern cod (Gadus morhua)

RATIONALE

This study presents the first sulphur isotope data of modern and archaeological cod (Gadus morhua) bone collagen, undertaken to identify large-scale spatial variability of significance as both baseline values for studies of human diet and a potential variable in isotope-based studies of fish trading.

METHODS

Collagen was extracted from modern and archaeological cod bones using a weak HCl solution and analysed for its sulphur isotopic composition by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS).

RESULTS

The archaeological cod have sulphur isotope values ranging from +9.1‰ to +18.2‰, whereas values for modern specimens range from +14.8‰ to +18.3‰. The modern data show values implying less freshwater influence, consistent with their offshore catch locations, but also corroborate some of the regional variability evident from the archaeological evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The archaeological data have a large range of sulphur isotope values compared with the modern populations, probably indicating they were taken from a wide range of geographic locations, including both coastal and offshore locales. They show broad trends of regional difference that may relate to both the fish populations targeted (e.g. 'inshore' versus 'offshore') and the baseline values of the local ecosystem (e.g. degree of freshwater input from river systems).

The determinants of periorbital skin ageing in participants of a melanoma case-control study in the U.K

BACKGROUND

Skin ageing is said to be caused by multiple factors. The relationship with sun exposure is of particular interest because the detrimental cutaneous effects of the sun may be a strong motivator to sun protection. We report a study of skin ageing in participants of an epidemiological study of melanoma.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the predictors of periorbital cutaneous ageing and whether it could be used as an objective marker of sun exposure.

METHODS

Photographs of the periorbital skin in 1341 participants were graded for wrinkles, degree of vascularity and blotchy pigmentation and the resultant data assessed in relation to reported sun exposure, sunscreen use, body mass index (BMI), smoking and the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene status. Data were analysed using proportional odds regression.

RESULTS

Wrinkling was associated with age and heavy smoking. Use of higher sun-protection factor sunscreen was protective (P = 0·01). Age, male sex, MC1R variants ('r', P=0·01; 'R', P=0·02), higher reported daily sun exposure (P=0·02), increased BMI (P=0·01) and smoking (P=0·02) were risk factors for hypervascularity. Blotchy pigmentation was associated with age, male sex, higher education and higher weekday sun exposure (P=0·03). More frequent sunscreen use (P=0·02) and MC1R variants ('r', P=0·03; 'R', P=0·001) were protective.

CONCLUSIONS

Periorbital wrinkling is a poor biomarker of reported sun exposure. Vascularity is a better biomarker as is blotchy pigmentation, the latter in darker-skinned individuals. In summary, male sex, sun exposure, smoking, obesity and MC1R variants were associated with measures of cutaneous ageing. Sunscreen use showed some evidence of being protective.

Stable isotope evidence for late medieval (14th-15th C) origins of the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) fishery

Although recent historical ecology studies have extended quantitative knowledge of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) exploitation back as far as the 16th century, the historical origin of the modern fishery remains obscure. Widespread archaeological evidence for cod consumption around the eastern Baltic littoral emerges around the 13th century, three centuries before systematic documentation, but it is not clear whether this represents (1) development of a substantial eastern Baltic cod fishery, or (2) large-scale importation of preserved cod from elsewhere. To distinguish between these hypotheses we use stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis to determine likely catch regions of 74 cod vertebrae and cleithra from 19 Baltic archaeological sites dated from the 8th to the 16th centuries. δ(13)C and δ(15)N signatures for six possible catch regions were established using a larger sample of archaeological cod cranial bones (n = 249). The data strongly support the second hypothesis, revealing widespread importation of cod during the 13th to 14th centuries, most of it probably from Arctic Norway. By the 15th century, however, eastern Baltic cod dominate within our sample, indicating the development of a substantial late medieval fishery. Potential human impact on cod stocks in the eastern Baltic must thus be taken into account for at least the last 600 years.

Melanoma sentinel node biopsy and prediction models for relapse and overall survival

BACKGROUND

To optimise predictive models for sentinal node biopsy (SNB) positivity, relapse and survival, using clinico-pathological characteristics and osteopontin gene expression in primary melanomas.

METHODS

A comparison of the clinico-pathological characteristics of SNB positive and negative cases was carried out in 561 melanoma patients. In 199 patients, gene expression in formalin-fixed primary tumours was studied using Illumina's DASL assay. A cross validation approach was used to test prognostic predictive models and receiver operating characteristic curves were produced.

RESULTS

Independent predictors of SNB positivity were Breslow thickness, mitotic count and tumour site. Osteopontin expression best predicted SNB positivity (P=2.4 × 10⁻⁷), remaining significant in multivariable analysis. Osteopontin expression, combined with thickness, mitotic count and site, gave the best area under the curve (AUC) to predict SNB positivity (72.6%). Independent predictors of relapse-free survival were SNB status, thickness, site, ulceration and vessel invasion, whereas only SNB status and thickness predicted overall survival. Using clinico-pathological features (thickness, mitotic count, ulceration, vessel invasion, site, age and sex) gave a better AUC to predict relapse (71.0%) and survival (70.0%) than SNB status alone (57.0, 55.0%). In patients with gene expression data, the SNB status combined with the clinico-pathological features produced the best prediction of relapse (72.7%) and survival (69.0%), which was not increased further with osteopontin expression (72.7, 68.0%).

CONCLUSION

Use of these models should be tested in other data sets in order to improve predictive and prognostic data for patients.

Immunoblotting using multiple antigens is essential to demonstrate the true risk of Helicobacter pylori infection for gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) for detection of Helicobacter pylori infection, using IgG antibodies, may significantly underestimate the association with gastric cancer.

AIM

To compare associations between H. pylori and cardia (CGC) and noncardia gastric cancer (NCGC) using ELISA and immunoblotting and determine the effect of atrophic gastritis on detection.

METHODS

Nested case-control study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Helicobacter pylori antibodies were detected in subjects with CGC (n = 18), NCGC (n = 34) and controls (n = 69 and 134 respectively) using ELISA (pylori DTect) and immunoblot (Helicoblot 2.1). Pepsinogen I levels were measured using ELISA.

RESULTS

Using ELISA, H. pylori-positivity in the CGC group was 33% vs. 35% in controls [odds ratio (OR = 0.9, 95% CI: 0.3-2.7)], while that in the NCGC group was 79% vs. 63% in controls [OR = 2.3 (95% CI: 0.9-5.8)]. Based on immunoblotting, H. pylori-positivity in the CGC group was 44% vs. 39% in their controls [OR = 1.2 (95% CI: 0.4-3.4)], while that in the NCGC group was 94% vs. 63% in controls [OR = 10.6 (95% CI: 2.4-47.4)]. Pepsinogen I levels in the NCGC cases and controls showed the lowest median level (4 ng/mL) to be in subjects negative by ELISA but positive by immunoblotting.

CONCLUSION

Immunoblotting improves the accuracy of H. pylori studies involving gastric cancer.

Power, validity, bias and robustness of family-based association analysis methods in the presence of linkage for late onset diseases

This simulation-based report compares the performance of five methods of association analysis in the presence of linkage using extended sibships: the Family-Based Association Test (FBAT), Empirical Variance FBAT (EV-FBAT), Conditional Logistic Regression (CLR), Robust CLR (R-CLR) and Sibship Disequilibrium Test (SDT). The two tests accounting for residual familial correlation (EV-FBAT and R-CLR) and the model-free SDT showed correct test size in all simulated designs, while FBAT and CLR were only valid for small effect sizes. SDT had the lowest power, while CLR had the highest power, generally similar to FBAT and the robust variance analogues. The power of all model-dependent tests dropped when the model was misspecified, although often not substantially. Estimates of genetic effect with CLR and R-CLR were unbiased when the disease locus was analysed but biased when a nearby marker was analysed. This study demonstrates that the genetic effect does not need to be extreme to invalidate tests that ignore familial correlation and confirms that analogous methods using robust variance estimation provide a valid alternative at little cost to power. Overall R-CLR is the best-performing method among these alternatives for the analysis of extended sibship data.

Family based studies and genetic epidemiology: theory and practice

Family based studies have underpinned many successes in uncovering the causes of monogenic and oligogenic diseases. Now research is focussing on the identification and characterisation of genes underlying common diseases and it is widely accepted that these studies will require large population based samples. Population based family study designs have the potential to facilitate the analysis of the effects of both genes and environment. These types of studies integrate the population based approaches of classic epidemiology and the methods enabling the analysis of correlations between relatives sharing both genes and environment. The extent to which such studies are feasible will depend upon population- and disease-specific factors. To review this topic, a symposium was held to present and discuss the costs, requirements and advantages of population based family study designs. This article summarises the features of the meeting held at The University of Sheffield, August 2006.

The polyAT, intronic IVS11-6 and Lys939Gln XPC polymorphisms are not associated with transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

Chemical carcinogens from cigarette smoking and occupational exposure are risk factors for bladder transitional cell carcinoma (TCC). The Xeroderma Pigmentosum Group C (XPC) gene is essential for repair of bulky adducts from carcinogens. The Xeroderma Pigmentosum Group C gene polymorphisms may alter DNA repair capacity (DRC), thus giving rise to genetic predisposition to bladder cancer. Recent studies have demonstrated linkage disequilibrium between three polymorphisms in the XPC gene (polyAT, IVS11-6 and Lys939Gln) and these have been shown to influence the DRC, as well as to be associated with bladder cancer risk. We analysed all three XPC polymorphisms in 547 bladder TCC patients and 579 cancer-free controls to investigate the association between these polymorphisms and bladder cancer susceptibility, and we also attempted to assess gene–environmental interactions. We confirmed strong linkage disequilibrium among the polymorphisms (Lewontin's D′>0.99). Using logistic regression adjusting for smoking, occupational and family history, neither the heterozygote nor the homozygote variants of these polymorphisms were associated with increased bladder cancer risk (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval] for heterozygote 0.82 [0.63–1.07], 0.82 [0.63–1.08] and 0.83 [0.63–1.08] for PolyAT, IVS11-6 and Lys939Gln, respectively and homozygote variant, 0.98 [0.68–1.42], 0.99 [0.69–1.43] and 1.01 [0.70–1.46]). Moreover, we did not find any significant interaction between these XPC polymorphisms and environmental exposure to cigarette smoking and occupational carcinogens.

The origins of intensive marine fishing in medieval Europe: the English evidence

The catastrophic impact of fishing pressure on species such as cod and herring is well documented. However, the antiquity of their intensive exploitation has not been established. Systematic catch statistics are only available for ca.100 years, but large-scale fishing industries existed in medieval Europe and the expansion of cod fishing from the fourteenth century (first in Iceland, then in Newfoundland) played an important role in the European colonization of the Northwest Atlantic. History has demonstrated the scale of these late medieval and post-medieval fisheries, but only archaeology can illuminate earlier practices. Zooarchaeological evidence shows that the clearest changes in marine fishing in England between AD 600 and 1600 occurred rapidly around AD 1000 and involved large increases in catches of herring and cod. Surprisingly, this revolution predated the documented post-medieval expansion of England's sea fisheries and coincided with the Medieval Warm Period--when natural herring and cod productivity was probably low in the North Sea. This counterintuitive discovery can be explained by the concurrent rise of urbanism and human impacts on freshwater ecosystems. The search for 'pristine' baselines regarding marine ecosystems will thus need to employ medieval palaeoecological proxies in addition to recent fisheries data and early modern historical records.

The Relationship Between the Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF) 5′UTR Variant A61G and Melanoma/Nevus Susceptibility

The inheritance of a G allele in position 61 in the 5'UTR of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) gene has been reported to increase melanoma susceptibility, a finding we have investigated in this study. The most potent phenotypic risk factor for melanoma is the atypical mole syndrome (AMS) phenotype. Our hypothesis is that the AMS is genetically determined and that nevus genes are also low penetrance melanoma susceptibility genes. We report that the G allele frequencies were the same in 697 healthy women and 380 melanoma cases (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.8-1.2 p=0.76). We therefore found no evidence that this polymorphism is a melanoma susceptibility gene. Furthermore, we found no evidence that the polymorphism controls the nevus phenotype (nevus number, number atypical nevi or AMS phenotype). We did find some evidence that the G allele may be associated with decreased tumor Breslow thickness (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9) for the A/A genotype versus A/G and G/G combined in tumors of thickness >3.5 vs < or =3.5 mm and may therefore act as a predictor of survival, although this finding is not in accord with the original report. This is the second study to find no association between EGF +61 and melanoma susceptibility.

Modeling and dissection of longitudinal blood pressure and hypertension phenotypes in genetic epidemiological studies

We discuss analyses of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 data from the Framingham Heart Study and simulations based on this study. We summarize analyses that investigated measures of systolic blood pressure or hypertension as the main phenotype, with the main focus being the modeling of this complex longitudinal phenotype. The approaches include familial aggregation methods and one-stage and two-stage linkage methods. For one-stage linkage methods, phenotype modeling is carried out jointly with the linkage analysis or incorporated in the analysis design. For two-stage linkage methods, phenotypes are first modeled in order to develop summary measures that are then analyzed in a subsequent linkage analysis. Results depend on phenotype selection and on how analyses account for longitudinality, treatment effects, and heterodasticity.

Segregation analysis comparing liability and quantitative trait models for hypertension using the Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 simulated data

Discrete (qualitative) data segregation analysis may be performed assuming the liability model, which involves an underlying normally distributed quantitative phenotype. The appropriateness of the liability model for complex traits is unclear. The Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 simulated data provides measures on systolic blood pressure, a highly complex trait, which may be dichotomized into a discrete trait (hypertension). We perform segregation analysis under the liability model of hypertensive status as a qualitative trait and compare this with results using systolic blood pressure as a quantitative trait (without prior knowledge at that stage of the true underlying simulation model) using 1050 pedigrees ascertained from four replicates on the basis of at least one affected member. Both analyses identify models with major genes and polygenic components to explain the family aggregation of systolic blood pressure. Neither of the methods estimates the true parameters well (as the true model is considerably more complicated than those considered for the analysis), but both identified the most complicated model evaluated as the preferred model. Segregation analysis of complex diseases using relatively simple models is unlikely to provide accurate parameter estimates but is able to indicate major gene and/or polygenic components in familial aggregation of complex diseases.

Linkage and association analysis of nevus density and the region containing the melanoma gene CDKN2A in UK twins

Rare mutations in the CDKN2A gene are highly penetrant for melanoma. Density of nevi is under strong genetic control and high density is a potent risk factor for melanoma. We used linkage and association analysis in adolescent twins from the UK to examine the hypothesis that the region containing the CDKN2A gene also contains a quantitative trait locus influencing normal nevus development. Five markers in the CDKN2A region were genotyped in 115 dizygotic twin pairs, and one marker (D9S942) was genotyped in 103 monozygotic twin pairs, all of whom had been phenotyped for nevus density. Linkage analysis showed no evidence of a quantitative trait locus influencing nevus density in this chromosomal region. A model partitioning the variation in phenotype into within- and between-twin pair components showed weak evidence of association between higher nevus density and longer mean length of the two D9S942 alleles (P=0.01). This relation, which was also observed in an earlier Australian twin study, could be because of the linkage disequilibrium between D9S942 and a neighbouring functional locus. Further investigation of this region is warranted in large-scale linkage or association studies.

FcgammaRIIIA-158V and rheumatoid arthritis: a confirmation study

OBJECTIVES

To develop a robust assay for genotyping the FcgammaRIIIA-158V/F polymorphism and to confirm the putative association between the FcgammaRIIIA-158V allele and rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

This allelic association study examined the FcgammaRIIIA-158V/F polymorphism for association with RA. A novel single-stranded conformational polymorphism assay was used to genotype 828 RA patients and 581 controls from the UK.

RESULTS

The FcgammaRIIIA-158V allele was associated with both RA (P=0.02) and nodules (P=0.04). Individuals homozygous for this higher affinity allele had a significantly increased risk of RA (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.18) and the development of nodules (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.20-4.01). There was no evidence of an interaction with the shared epitope.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a novel assay to genotype the FcgammaRIIIA-158F/V polymorphism and confirmed that homozygosity for the FcgammaRIIIA-158V allele is associated with UK Caucasian RA, particularly in those individuals with nodules, suggesting FcgammaRIIIA may play a role in determining disease severity or in the development of nodules per se.

Investigation of interaction between N-acetyltransferase 2 and heterocyclic amines as potential risk factors for colorectal cancer

Fast N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) acetylators may be at increased risk of colorectal cancer through the activation of carcinogenic heterocyclic amines (HA), which are produced by meat cooked at high temperatures and are found in cigarette smoke. A study of 500 incident colorectal cancer cases and population controls, matched for age, sex and general practitioner, was conducted in the UK to investigate this hypothesis. Usual meat intake and lifetime smoking habits were estimated using a detailed questionnaire administered by interview. Subjects also indicated how well cooked they ate their meat. Subjects were classified as fast or slow NAT2 acetylators on the basis of NAT2 genotype. Complete genotype data were available on 433 matched pairs. The risk of colorectal cancer showed a steady increase with meat intake, rising to an odds ratio of 1.51 [95% confidence interval (1.03, 2.23)] for the highest versus the lowest quartile, after adjustment for total energy intake, and this was even more pronounced for red meat [odds ratio 1.97 (1.30, 2.98)]. However, this effect was not influenced by the preference for well-done meat. Smoking was also associated with an increased risk [odds ratio 1.47 (1.10, 1.98) for ever- versus never-smokers]. In both cases and controls approximately 40% of subjects were classified as fast acetylators, and the risks associated with (red) meat intake and smoking did not vary with NAT2 status. This study provides no support for the hypothesis that fast NAT2 acetylators are at increased risk of colorectal cancer, even if exposed to high levels of HA from well-cooked meat or smoking.

Heritability of features of the insulin resistance syndrome in a community-based study of healthy families

AIMS

To investigate genetic and environmental influences on anthropometric, metabolic and fibrinolytic traits of the insulin resistance syndrome (IRS) in a population not characterized by a high degree of insulin resistance.

METHODS

We recruited 537 adults from 89 randomly ascertained healthy families of white north European origin from the general population. We used maximum likelihood analysis to estimate the heritabilities and effects of environmental covariates on traits of the IRS in these families.

RESULTS

Adjusted for age, sex and body mass index, the traits showed considerable heritability. For waist-hip ratio, heritability was 15%. The heritabilities of fasting glucose, insulin and estimated insulin resistance were 20%, 23% and 23%, respectively. Heritabilities were 20%, 24% and 43% for triglycerides, LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol, respectively. For PAI-1 Ag and t-PA Ag they were 20% and 26%. Covariates explained 20-25% of the variance of lipids and insulin resistance and 35-36% of fibrinolytic factors. Childhood household influences significantly affected variance for waist-hip ratio (4%), fasting insulin (11%) and estimated insulin resistance (12%).

CONCLUSIONS

These family data demonstrate significant genetic influence on anthropometric, fibrinolytic and glucose-related traits of the IRS in a healthy white North European population.

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis classified by the ILAR criteria: HLA associations in UK patients

OBJECTIVE

To determine the HLA associations with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and its subgroups as defined by the International League of Associations for Rheumatology (ILAR) classification criteria.

METHODS

Five hundred and twenty-one UK Caucasian JIA patients and 537 UK Caucasian controls were typed for HLA class II alleles. Phenotype and haplotype frequencies were compared between all JIA cases and controls and between the seven ILAR-defined JIA subgroups.

RESULTS

Three haplotypes (DRB1*08-DQA1*0401-DQB1*0402; DRB1*11-DQA1*05-DQB1*03; DRB1*1301-DQA1*01-DQB1*06) were associated with increased risk and one (DRB1*04-DQA1*03-DQB1*03) with decreased risk of JIA. However, in each case the frequencies also varied between JIA subgroups.

CONCLUSION

This study categorically demonstrates that there are multiple HLA class II associations with JIA. It has also, for the first time, defined these associations in the seven different ILAR subgroups in UK JIA cases. Although there are a number of common associations, each ILAR subgroup exhibits different patterns of HLA associations, suggesting that the ILAR classification system does define genetically distinct groups of patients.

A weak association of HLA-B*2702 with Behçet's disease

This study aimed to analyse the association of HLA-B alleles other than -B51 with Behçet's disease (BD). We also investigated the frequency of HLA-B alleles sharing the same natural killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) binding sequence with HLA-B51. Broad-genotyping of HLA-B locus by PCR-SSOP in 174 Turkish BD patients and 191 healthy controls confirmed the strong association of B*51 with BD (60.9% in BD patients, 24.6% in healthy controls, OR = 4.78). No other HLA-B allele was identified showing an association with BD after adjusting for multiple testing or by using relative predispositional effects (RPE) analysis after the deletion of B*51. HLA-B alleles reacting with the sequence specific oligonucleotide probe 23, which corresponds to the KIR binding site of B*51, were found to be positive in 127 BD patients (73%) and 90 controls (47%) (OR = 3.03, 95% CI 2-4.7). The repeated RPE analysis after separating HLA-B alleles carrying B51-KIR binding sequence as distinct alleles within a broad-type allele group revealed B*2702 allele as the only allele showing an association with BD after the deletion of B*51. Selective increase of B*2702, the only B*27 allele carrying the same KIR binding sequence with B*51, warrants investigation of the possibility of interaction of HLA molecules with KIRs on NK or other T cells in the pathogenesis of BD.