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Tittensor DP, Novaglio C, Harrison CS, Heneghan RF, Barrier N, Bianchi D, Bopp L, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Britten GL, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Coll M, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Fernandes-Salvador JA, Fulton EA, Galbraith ED, Gascuel D, Guiet J, John JG, Link JS, Lotze HK, Maury O, Ortega-Cisneros K, Palacios-Abrantes J, Petrik CM, du Pontavice H, Rault J, Richardson AJ, Shannon L, Shin YJ, Steenbeek J, Stock CA, Blanchard JL. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nat Clim Chang 2021; 11:973-981. [PMID: 34745348 PMCID: PMC8556156 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX USA
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA USA
| | - Ryan F. Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Nicolas Barrier
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
| | | | - Gregory L. Britten
- Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA USA
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales Australia
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | | | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI USA
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Jonathan Rault
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Lynne Shannon
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Charles A. Stock
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
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Séférian R, Berthet S, Yool A, Palmiéri J, Bopp L, Tagliabue A, Kwiatkowski L, Aumont O, Christian J, Dunne J, Gehlen M, Ilyina T, John JG, Li H, Long MC, Luo JY, Nakano H, Romanou A, Schwinger J, Stock C, Santana-Falcón Y, Takano Y, Tjiputra J, Tsujino H, Watanabe M, Wu T, Wu F, Yamamoto A. Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6. Curr Clim Change Rep 2020; 6:95-119. [PMID: 32837849 PMCID: PMC7431553 DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). RECENT FINDINGS The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. SUMMARY Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
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Affiliation(s)
- Roland Séférian
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Sarah Berthet
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Andrew Yool
- National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK
| | - Julien Palmiéri
- National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD-IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure / Université PSL, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Sorbonne Université, Paris, PSL University, Paris, France
| | | | | | - Olivier Aumont
- LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
| | - James Christian
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC Canada
| | - John Dunne
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Marion Gehlen
- LSCE-IPSL, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Hongmei Li
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
| | | | - Jessica Y. Luo
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | | | - Jörg Schwinger
- NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Charles Stock
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Yohei Takano
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- Present Address: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA
| | - Jerry Tjiputra
- NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Michio Watanabe
- Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
| | - Tongwen Wu
- Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Fanghua Wu
- Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Akitomo Yamamoto
- Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
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Lee YJ, Matrai PA, Friedrichs MAM, Saba VS, Aumont O, Babin M, Buitenhuis ET, Chevallier M, de Mora L, Dessert M, Dunne JP, Ellingsen IH, Feldman D, Frouin R, Gehlen M, Gorgues T, Ilyina T, Jin M, John JG, Lawrence J, Manizza M, Menkes CE, Perruche C, Le Fouest V, Popova EE, Romanou A, Samuelsen A, Schwinger J, Séférian R, Stock CA, Tjiputra J, Tremblay LB, Ueyoshi K, Vichi M, Yool A, Zhang J. Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models. J Geophys Res Oceans 2016; 121:8635-8669. [PMID: 32818130 PMCID: PMC7430529 DOI: 10.1002/2016jc011993] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959-2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Younjoo J Lee
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, Maine, USA
- Now at Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA
| | | | - Marjorie A M Friedrichs
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia, USA
| | - Vincent S Saba
- National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Olivier Aumont
- Laboratoire Océan, Climat, Exploitation et Application Numérique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
| | - Marcel Babin
- Takuvik Joint International Laboratory, CNRS-Université Laval, Québec, Canada
| | - Erik T Buitenhuis
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Matthieu Chevallier
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | | | - Morgane Dessert
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/UBO, Institut Universitaire et Européen de la Mer, Plouzané, France
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | | | - Doron Feldman
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
| | - Robert Frouin
- Climate, Atmospheric Science, and Physical Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Marion Gehlen
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Thomas Gorgues
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/UBO, Institut Universitaire et Européen de la Mer, Plouzané, France
| | | | - Meibing Jin
- International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
- Laboratoty for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
| | - Jasmin G John
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Jon Lawrence
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Manfredi Manizza
- Geosciences Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Christophe E Menkes
- Laboratoire Océan, Climat, Exploitation et Application Numérique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
| | | | - Vincent Le Fouest
- LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés, Université de La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Ekaterina E Popova
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Anastasia Romanou
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
| | - Annette Samuelsen
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre and Hjort Centre for Marine Ecosystem Dynamics, Bergen, Norway
| | - Jörg Schwinger
- Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Roland Séférian
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Charles A Stock
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Jerry Tjiputra
- Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - L Bruno Tremblay
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | - Kyozo Ueyoshi
- Climate, Atmospheric Science, and Physical Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Marcello Vichi
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Andrew Yool
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Jinlun Zhang
- Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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