Availability of evidence and comparative effectiveness for surgical versus drug interventions: an overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to examine the prevalence of comparisons of surgery to drug regimens, the strength of evidence of such comparisons and whether surgery or the drug intervention was favoured.

DESIGN

Systematic review of systematic reviews (umbrella review).

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Systematic reviews attempt to compare surgical to drug interventions.

DATA EXTRACTION

We extracted whether the review found any randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for eligible comparisons. Individual trial results were extracted directly from the systematic review.

SYNTHESIS

The outcomes of each meta-analysis were resynthesised into random-effects meta-analyses. Egger's test and excess significance were assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 188 systematic reviews intended to compare surgery versus drugs. Only 41 included data from at least one RCT (total, 165 RCTs) and covered a total of 103 different outcomes of various comparisons of surgery versus drugs. A GRADE assessment was performed by the Cochrane reviewers for 87 (83%) outcomes in the reviews, indicating the strength of evidence was high in 4 outcomes (4%), moderate in 22 (21%), low in 27 (26%) and very low in 33 (32%). Based on 95% CIs, the surgical intervention was favoured in 38/103 (37%), and the drugs were favoured in 13/103 (13%) outcomes. Of the outcomes with high GRADE rating, only one showed conclusive superiority in our reanalysis (sphincterotomy was better than medical therapy for anal fissure). Of the 22 outcomes with moderate GRADE rating, 6 (27%) were inconclusive, 14 (64%) were in favour of surgery and 2 (9%) were in favour of drugs. There was no evidence of excess significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Though the relative merits of surgical versus drug interventions are important to know for many diseases, high strength randomised evidence is rare. More randomised trials comparing surgery to drug interventions are needed.

Time-varying risk of death after SARS-CoV-2 infection in Swedish long-term care facility residents: a matched cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities is associated with higher mortality after the acute phase of infection, and to estimate survival in uninfected residents.

DESIGN

Extended follow-up of a previous, propensity score-matched, retrospective cohort study based on the Swedish Senior Alert register.

SETTING

LTC facilities in Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

n=3604 LTC residents with documented SARS-CoV-2 until 15 September 2020 matched to 3604 uninfected controls using time-dependent propensity scores on age, sex, health status, comorbidities, prescription medications, geographical region and Senior Alert registration time. In a secondary analysis (n=3731 in each group), geographical region and Senior Alert registration time were not matched for in order to increase the follow-up time in controls and allow for an estimation of median survival.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality until 24 October 2020, tracked using the National Cause of Death Register.

RESULTS

Median age was 87 years and 65% were women. Excess mortality peaked at 5 days after documented SARS-CoV-2-infection (HR 21.5, 95% CI 15.9 to 29.2), after which excess mortality decreased. From the second month onwards, mortality rate became lower in infected residents than controls. The HR for death during days 61-210 of follow-up was 0.76 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.93). The median survival of uninfected controls was 1.6 years, which was much lower than the national life expectancy in Sweden at age 87 (5.05 years in men, 6.07 years in women).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death after SARS-CoV-2 infection in LTC residents peaked after 5 days and decreased after 2 months, probably because the frailest residents died during the acute phase, leaving healthier residents remaining. The limited life expectancy in this population suggests that LTC resident status should be accounted for when estimating years of life lost due to COVID-19.

Time-varying risk of death after SARS-CoV-2 infection in Swedish long-term care facility residents: a matched cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities is associated with higher mortality after the acute phase of infection, and to estimate survival in uninfected residents.

DESIGN

Extended follow-up of a previous, propensity score-matched, retrospective cohort study based on the Swedish Senior Alert register.

SETTING

LTC facilities in Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

n=3604 LTC residents with documented SARS-CoV-2 until 15 September 2020 matched to 3604 uninfected controls using time-dependent propensity scores on age, sex, health status, comorbidities, prescription medications, geographical region and Senior Alert registration time. In a secondary analysis (n=3731 in each group), geographical region and Senior Alert registration time were not matched for in order to increase the follow-up time in controls and allow for an estimation of median survival.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality until 24 October 2020, tracked using the National Cause of Death Register.

RESULTS

Median age was 87 years and 65% were women. Excess mortality peaked at 5 days after documented SARS-CoV-2-infection (HR 21.5, 95% CI 15.9 to 29.2), after which excess mortality decreased. From the second month onwards, mortality rate became lower in infected residents than controls. The HR for death during days 61-210 of follow-up was 0.76 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.93). The median survival of uninfected controls was 1.6 years, which was much lower than the national life expectancy in Sweden at age 87 (5.05 years in men, 6.07 years in women).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death after SARS-CoV-2 infection in LTC residents peaked after 5 days and decreased after 2 months, probably because the frailest residents died during the acute phase, leaving healthier residents remaining. The limited life expectancy in this population suggests that LTC resident status should be accounted for when estimating years of life lost due to COVID-19.

Citation impact and social media visibility of Great Barrington and John Snow signatories for COVID-19 strategy

OBJECTIVE

The Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) and the John Snow Memorandum (JSM), each signed by numerous scientists, have proposed hotly debated strategies for handling the COVID-19 pandemic. The current analysis aimed to examine whether the prevailing narrative that GBD is a minority view among experts is true.

METHODS

The citation impact and social media presence of the key GBD and JSM signatories was assessed. Citation data were obtained from Scopus using a previously validated composite citation indicator that incorporated also coauthorship and author order and ranking was against all authors in the same Science-Metrix scientific field with at least five full papers. Random samples of scientists from the longer lists of signatories were also assessed. The number of Twitter followers for all key signatories was also tracked.

RESULTS

Among the 47 key GBD signatories, 20, 19 and 21, respectively, were top-cited authors for career impact, recent single-year (2019) impact or either. For comparison, among the 34 key JSM signatories, 11, 14 and 15, respectively, were top cited. Key signatories represented 30 different scientific fields (9 represented in both documents, 17 only in GBD and 4 only in JSM). In a random sample of n=30 scientists among the longer lists of signatories, five in GBD and three in JSM were top cited. By April 2021, only 19/47 key GBD signatories had personal Twitter accounts versus 34/34 of key JSM signatories; 3 key GBD signatories versus 10 key JSM signatories had >50 000 Twitter followers and extraordinary Kardashian K-indices (363-2569). By November 2021, four key GBD signatories versus 13 key JSM signatories had >50 000 Twitter followers.

CONCLUSIONS

Both GBD and JSM include many stellar scientists, but JSM has far more powerful social media presence and this may have shaped the impression that it is the dominant narrative.

Overall and COVID-19-specific citation impact of highly visible COVID-19 media experts: bibliometric analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether the COVID-19 experts who appear most frequently in media have high citation impact for their research overall, and for their COVID-19 peer-reviewed publications in particular and to examine the representation of women among such experts.

DESIGN

Cross-linking of data sets of most highly visible COVID-19 media experts with citation data on the impact of their published work (career-long publication record and COVID-19-specific work).

SETTING

Cable news appearance in prime-time programming or overall media appearances.

PARTICIPANTS

Most highly visible COVID-19 media experts in the USA, Switzerland, Greece and Denmark.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Citation data from Scopus along with discipline-specific ranks of overall career-long and COVID-19-specific impact based on a previously validated composite citation indicator.

RESULTS

We assessed 76 COVID-19 experts who were highly visible in US prime-time cable news, and 50, 12 and 2 highly visible experts in media in Denmark, Greece and Switzerland, respectively. Of those, 23/76, 10/50, 2/12 and 0/2 were among the top 2% of overall citation impact among scientists in the same discipline worldwide. Moreover, 37/76, 15/50, 7/12 and 2/2 had published anything on COVID-19 that was indexed in Scopus as of 30 August 2021. Only 18/76, 6/50, 2/12 and 0/2 of the highly visible COVID-19 media experts were women. 55 scientists in the USA, 5 in Denmark, 64 in Greece and 56 in Switzerland had a higher citation impact for their COVID-19 work than any of the evaluated highly visible media COVID-19 experts in the respective country; 10/55, 2/5, 22/64 and 14/56 of them were women.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite notable exceptions, there is a worrisome disconnect between COVID-19 claimed media expertise and scholarship. Highly cited women COVID-19 experts are rarely included among highly visible media experts.

Systematic examination of preprint platforms for use in the medical and biomedical sciences setting

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this review is to identify all preprint platforms with biomedical and medical scope and to compare and contrast the key characteristics and policies of these platforms.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Preprint platforms that were launched up to 25 June 2019 and have a biomedical and medical scope according to MEDLINE's journal selection criteria were identified using existing lists, web-based searches and the expertise of both academic and non-academic publication scientists. A data extraction form was developed, pilot tested and used to collect data from each preprint platform's webpage(s).

RESULTS

A total of 44 preprint platforms were identified as having biomedical and medical scope, 17 (39%) were hosted by the Open Science Framework preprint infrastructure, 6 (14%) were provided by F1000 Research (the Open Research Central infrastructure) and 21 (48%) were other independent preprint platforms. Preprint platforms were either owned by non-profit academic groups, scientific societies or funding organisations (n=28; 64%), owned/partly owned by for-profit publishers or companies (n=14; 32%) or owned by individuals/small communities (n=2; 5%). Twenty-four (55%) preprint platforms accepted content from all scientific fields although some of these had restrictions relating to funding source, geographical region or an affiliated journal's remit. Thirty-three (75%) preprint platforms provided details about article screening (basic checks) and 14 (32%) of these actively involved researchers with context expertise in the screening process. Almost all preprint platforms allow submission to any peer-reviewed journal following publication, have a preservation plan for read access and most have a policy regarding reasons for retraction and the sustainability of the service.

CONCLUSION

A large number of preprint platforms exist for use in biomedical and medical sciences, all of which offer researchers an opportunity to rapidly disseminate their research findings onto an open-access public server, subject to scope and eligibility.

A consensus-based transparency checklist

We present a consensus-based checklist to improve and document the transparency of research reports in social and behavioural research. An accompanying online application allows users to complete the form and generate a report that they can submit with their manuscript or post to a public repository.

Validation protocols for blood pressure measuring devices: the impact of the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol and the development of a Universal Standard

In the last three decades protocols for the validation of blood pressure measuring devices have been developed by the US Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation, the British Hypertension Society, the German Hypertension League, the European Society of Hypertension Working Group on blood pressure Monitoring and the International Organization for Standardization. The European Society of Hypertension International Protocol required much smaller sample size than the other protocols, aiming to reduce the time, resources and cost of validation studies and thereby increase the number of validated devices. Given its specifications, the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol was adequate for 'high- and low-accuracy' devices, yet assessment of 'moderate accuracy' devices had high uncertainty with resultant high rate of device failure. Thus, devices validated using the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol should be considered to be as accurate as those validated with the previous Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation or British Hypertension Society protocols. However, the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol did not allow subgroup evaluation (arm sizes, special populations, etc). The mission of the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol to promote the concept of validation has been well achieved, as almost double studies have been published using it than all the other protocols together. However, the maintenance of different validation protocols is confusing and therefore experts from the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation, European Society of Hypertension International Protocol and International Organization for Standardization have now developed the AAMI/ESH/ISO Universal Standard (ISO 81060-2:2018) as the recommended 21st-century procedure for worldwide application. The European Society of Hypertension Working Group has published a practical guide for using the Universal Standard. It is in the interests of all scientific bodies to propagate the Universal Standard and ensure its wide implementation.

A universal standard for the validation of blood pressure measuring devices: Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation/European Society of Hypertension/International Organization for Standardization (AAMI/ESH/ISO) Collaboration Statement

: In the last 30 years, several organizations, such as the US Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI), the British Hypertension Society, the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) Working Group on Blood Pressure (BP) Monitoring and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) have developed protocols for clinical validation of BP measuring devices. However, it is recognized that science, as well as patients, consumers and manufacturers would be best served if all BP measuring devices were assessed for accuracy according to an agreed single validation protocol that had global acceptance. Therefore, an international initiative was taken by AAMI, ESH and ISO experts who agreed to develop a universal standard for device validation. This statement presents the key aspects of a validation procedure, which were agreed by the AAMI, ESH and ISO representatives as the basis for a single universal validation protocol. As soon as the AAMI/ESH/ISO standard is fully developed, this will be regarded as the single universal standard and will replace all other previous standards/protocols.

A Universal Standard for the Validation of Blood Pressure Measuring Devices: Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation/European Society of Hypertension/International Organization for Standardization (AAMI/ESH/ISO) Collaboration Statement

In the past 30 years, several organizations, such as the US Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI), the British Hypertension Society, the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) Working Group on Blood Pressure (BP) Monitoring, and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), have developed protocols for clinical validation of BP measuring devices. However, it is recognized that science, as well as patients, consumers, and manufacturers, would be best served if all BP measuring devices were assessed for accuracy according to an agreed single validation protocol that had global acceptance. Therefore, an international initiative was taken by the AAMI, ESH, and ISO experts who agreed to develop a universal standard for device validation. This statement presents the key aspects of a validation procedure, which were agreed by the AAMI, ESH, and ISO representatives as the basis for a single universal validation protocol. As soon as the AAMI/ESH/ISO standard is fully developed, this will be regarded as the single universal standard and will replace all other previous standards/protocols.

Diet, body size, physical activity and risk of prostate cancer: An umbrella review of the evidence

The existing literature on the relationship between diet, body size, physical activity and prostate cancer risk was summarised by the World Cancer Research Fund Continuous Update Project (CUP). An evaluation of the robustness of this evidence is required to help inform public health policy. The robustness of this evidence was evaluated using several criteria addressing evidence strength and validity, including the statistical significance of the random effects summary estimate and of the largest study in a meta-analysis, number of prostate cancer cases, between-study heterogeneity, 95% prediction intervals, small-study effects bias, excess significance bias and sensitivity analyses with credibility ceilings. A total of 248 meta-analyses were extracted from the CUP, which studied associations of 23 foods, 31 nutrients, eight indices of body size and three indices of physical activity with risk of total prostate cancer development, mortality or cancer development by stage and grade. Of the 176 meta-analyses using a continuous scale to measure the exposures, no association presented strong evidence by satisfying all the aforementioned criteria. Only the association of height with total prostate cancer incidence and mortality presented highly suggestive evidence with a 4% higher risk per 5 cm greater height (95% confidence interval, 1.03, 1.05). Associations for body mass index, weight, height, dietary calcium and spirits intake were supported by suggestive evidence. Overall, the association of diet, body size, physical activity and prostate cancer has been extensively studied, but no association was graded with strong evidence.

Methods to increase reproducibility in differential gene expression via meta-analysis

Findings from clinical and biological studies are often not reproducible when tested in independent cohorts. Due to the testing of a large number of hypotheses and relatively small sample sizes, results from whole-genome expression studies in particular are often not reproducible. Compared to single-study analysis, gene expression meta-analysis can improve reproducibility by integrating data from multiple studies. However, there are multiple choices in designing and carrying out a meta-analysis. Yet, clear guidelines on best practices are scarce. Here, we hypothesized that studying subsets of very large meta-analyses would allow for systematic identification of best practices to improve reproducibility. We therefore constructed three very large gene expression meta-analyses from clinical samples, and then examined meta-analyses of subsets of the datasets (all combinations of datasets with up to N/2 samples and K/2 datasets) compared to a ‘silver standard’ of differentially expressed genes found in the entire cohort. We tested three random-effects meta-analysis models using this procedure. We showed relatively greater reproducibility with more-stringent effect size thresholds with relaxed significance thresholds; relatively lower reproducibility when imposing extraneous constraints on residual heterogeneity; and an underestimation of actual false positive rate by Benjamini–Hochberg correction. In addition, multivariate regression showed that the accuracy of a meta-analysis increased significantly with more included datasets even when controlling for sample size.

PRISMA harms checklist: improving harms reporting in systematic reviews

INTRODUCTION

For any health intervention, accurate knowledge of both benefits and harms is needed. Systematic reviews often compound poor reporting of harms in primary studies by failing to report harms or doing so inadequately. While the PRISMA statement (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) helps systematic review authors ensure complete and transparent reporting, it is focused mainly on efficacy. Thus, a PRISMA harms checklist has been developed to improve harms reporting in systematic reviews, promoting a more balanced assessment of benefits and harms.

METHODS

A development strategy, endorsed by the EQUATOR Network and existing reporting guidelines (including the PRISMA statement, PRISMA for abstracts, and PRISMA for protocols), was used. After the development of a draft checklist of items, a modified Delphi process was initiated. The Delphi consisted of three rounds of electronic feedback followed by an in-person meeting.

RESULTS

The PRISMA harms checklist contains four essential reporting elements to be added to the original PRISMA statement to improve harms reporting in reviews. These are reported in the title ("Specifically mention 'harms' or other related terms, or the harm of interest in the review"), synthesis of results ("Specify how zero events were handled, if relevant"), study characteristics ("Define each harm addressed, how it was ascertained (eg, patient report, active search), and over what time period"), and synthesis of results ("Describe any assessment of possible causality"). Additional guidance regarding existing PRISMA items was developed to demonstrate relevance when synthesising information about harms.

CONCLUSION

The PRISMA harms checklist identifies a minimal set of items to be reported when reviewing adverse events. This guideline extension is intended to improve harms reporting in systematic reviews, whether harms are a primary or secondary outcome.

HELOW: a program for testing extreme homogeneity in meta-analysis

Meta-analysis aims to synthesize results from different studies. Although, in a meta-analysis the presence of large between-study heterogeneity is routinely evaluated, in some instances is also important to probe whether there is extreme between-study homogeneity (i.e. extreme low between-study heterogeneity). HELOW (HEterogeneity LOW) is a program for testing extreme homogeneity in a meta-analysis of risk ratios when binary outcome and Mantel-Haenszel fixed effects summary risk ratio estimate are employed. The significance of extreme homogeneity is assessed using a Monte Carlo test. Extreme homogeneity may yield insights for the statistical and clinical interpretation of the data.

Recommendations and proposed guidelines for assessing the cumulative evidence on joint effects of genes and environments on cancer occurrence in humans

We propose guidelines to evaluate the cumulative evidence of gene-environment (G × E) interactions in the causation of human cancer. Our approach has its roots in the HuGENet and IARC Monographs evaluation processes for genetic and environmental risk factors, respectively, and can be applied to common chronic diseases other than cancer. We first review issues of definitions of G × E interactions, discovery and modelling methods for G × E interactions, and issues in systematic reviews of evidence for G × E interactions, since these form the foundation for appraising the credibility of evidence in this contentious field. We then propose guidelines that include four steps: (i) score the strength of the evidence for main effects of the (a) environmental exposure and (b) genetic variant; (ii) establish a prior score category and decide on the pattern of interaction to be expected; (iii) score the strength of the evidence for interaction between the environmental exposure and the genetic variant; and (iv) examine the overall plausibility of interaction by combining the prior score and the strength of the evidence and interpret results. We finally apply the scheme to the interaction between NAT2 polymorphism and tobacco smoking in determining bladder cancer risk.

Impact of schizophrenia candidate genes on schizotypy and cognitive endophenotypes at the population level

BACKGROUND

Aspects of cognitive function and schizotypy have been proposed as potential endophenotypes for schizophrenia. It is unknown whether the expression of these endophenotypes at the population level is modulated by the genetic variability of candidate susceptibility genes for schizophrenia.

METHODS

We examined the potential impact of 18 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the DTNBP1, NRG1, DAOA/G32, and DAAO genes, on cognition and self-rated schizotypy, in a representative population of 2243 young male military conscripts. Single SNP and haplotype associations were evaluated.

RESULTS

The DTNBP1 SNPs rs2619522 and rs760761 exhibited several single marker associations, the minor alleles being associated with lower attention capacity but also a decrease in positive and paranoid schizotypy scores. The DTNBP1 haplotype load had borderline associations with nonverbal IQ, paranoid schizotypy, and sustained attention. For individual NRG1 polymorphisms, isolated but weak signals of association were noted with sustained attention and working memory but not schizotypy. The risk allele of functional SNP8NRG243177 was associated with reduced spatial working memory capacity. An isolated effect of DAAO haplotype variability was noted on negative and disorganization schizotypy. No convincing association of DAOA/G32 variability was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

The DTNBP1 and, less so, NRG1 and DAAO variants might exert gene-specific modulating effects on schizophrenia endophenotypes at the population level.

The importance of independent risk-factors for long-term mortality prediction after cardiac surgery

The purpose of the present study was to determine independent predictors for long-term mortality after cardiac surgery. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was developed to score in-hospital mortality and recent studies have shown its ability to predict long-term mortality as well. We compared forecasts based on EuroSCORE with other models based on independent predictors. Medical records of patients with cardiac surgery who were discharged alive (n = 4852) were retrospectively reviewed. Their operative surgical risks were calculated according to EuroSCORE. Patients were randomly divided into two groups: training dataset (n = 3233) and validation dataset (n = 1619). Long-term survival data (mean follow-up 5.1 years) were obtained from the National Death Index. We compared four models: standard EuroSCORE (M1); logistic EuroSCORE (M2); M2 and other preoperative, intra-operative and post-operative selected variables (M3); and selected variables only (M4). M3 and M4 were determined with multivariable Cox regression analysis using the training dataset. The estimated five-year survival rates of the quartiles in compared models in the validation dataset were: 94.5%, 87.8%, 77.1%, 64.9% for M1; 95.1%, 88.0%, 80.5%, 64.4% for M2; 93.4%, 89.4%, 80.8%, 64.1% for M3; and 95.8%, 90.9%, 81.0%, 59.9% for M4. In the four models, the odds of death in the highest-risk quartile was 8.4-, 8.5-, 9.4- and 15.6-fold higher, respectively, than the odds of death in the lowest-risk quartile (P < 0.0001 for all). EuroSCORE is a good predictor of long-term mortality after cardiac surgery. We developed and validated a model using selected preoperative, intra-operative and post-operative variables that has better discriminatory ability.

Collaborative analysis of alpha-synuclein gene promoter variability and Parkinson disease

CONTEXT

Identification and replication of susceptibility genes for Parkinson disease at the population level have been hampered by small studies with potential biases. Alpha-synuclein (SNCA) has been one of the most promising susceptibility genes, but large-scale studies have been lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether allele-length variability in the dinucleotide repeat sequence (REP1) of the SNCA gene promoter is associated with Parkinson disease susceptibility, whether SNCA promoter haplotypes are associated with Parkinson disease, and whether REP1 variability modifies age at onset.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We performed a collaborative analysis of individual-level data on SNCA REP1 and flanking markers in patients with Parkinson disease and controls. Study site recruitment, data collection, and analyses were performed between April 5, 2004, and December 31, 2005. Eighteen participating sites of a global genetics consortium provided clinical data. Genotyping was performed for SNCA REP1, -770, and -116 markers at individual sites; however, each site also provided 20 DNA samples for regenotyping centrally.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Measures included estimations of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in controls; a test of heterogeneity; analyses for association of single variants or haplotypes; and survival analyses for age at onset.

RESULTS

Of the 18 sites, 11 met stringent criteria for concordance with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and low genotyping error rate. These 11 sites provided complete data for 2692 cases and 2652 controls. There was no heterogeneity across studies (P>.60). The SNCA REP1 alleles differed in frequency for cases and controls (P<.001). Genotypes defined by the 263 base-pair allele were associated with Parkinson disease (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.69; P<.001 for trend). Multilocus haplotypes differed in frequency for cases and controls (global score statistic, P<.001). Two-loci haplotypes were associated with Parkinson disease only when they included REP1 as one of the loci. However, genotypes defined by REP1 alleles did not modify age at onset (P = .55).

CONCLUSION

This large-scale collaborative analysis demonstrates that SNCA REP1 allele-length variability is associated with an increased risk of Parkinson disease.

Association of Leiden mutation in factor V gene with hypertension in pregnancy and pre-eclampsia: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether the V Leiden mutation is consistently associated with hypertension in pregnancy across populations of pregnant women.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of studies comparing women with and without hypertension in pregnancy for the V Leiden mutation.

METHODS

Studies were identified with MEDLINE and EMBASE searches complemented with perusal of bibliographies of retrieved articles and communication with investigators. Data were evaluated with random effects models and between-study heterogeneity was estimated. Sensitivity analyses examined the effect of population and study characteristics. Bias diagnostics evaluated the evolution of the postulated effect over time and the potential for publication bias. RESULTS Across 19 studies (2742 hypertensive women, 2403 controls), V Leiden mutation increased the odds of hypertensive disease of pregnancy by 2.25-fold [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.50-3.38], but there was large between-study heterogeneity (P = 0.002). The results were similar and heterogeneity persisted when sensitivity analyses were limited to studies with Caucasians, proteinuria, diastolic hypertension threshold > 110 mmHg, specified selection of cases, and matching. While studies published up to 2000 showed an odds ratio of 3.16 (95% CI, 2.04-4.92), no association was seen in studies published in 2001-2002 (odds ratio 0.97; 95% CI, 0.61-1.54). There was also evidence of potential publication bias: the five largest studies showed no association (odds ratio 1.21; 95% CI, 0.84-1.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Although modest effects of V Leiden mutation on the risk of hypertension in pregnancy cannot be excluded, the association observed in early and small studies may be typical of bias, in particular time-lag bias and publication bias.

Effects of CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I alleles on HIV-1 disease progression: the protection varies with duration of infection

OBJECTIVE

To examine temporal variation in the effects of CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I chemokine receptor gene polymorphisms on HIV-1 disease progression.

DESIGN

Pooled analysis of individual patient data from 10 cohorts of HIV-1 seroconverters from the United States, Europe, and Australia.

METHODS

We studied HIV-1 seroconverters of European (n = 1635) or African (n = 215) ancestry who had been genotyped for CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I. We used Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying coefficients to determine whether the genetic protection against AIDS (1987 case definition) and death varied with time since seroconversion.

RESULTS

Protection against AIDS conferred by CCR5-Delta32 held constant at a 31% (RH 0.69, 95% CI 0.54, 0.88) reduction in risk over the course of HIV-1 infection, whereas protection against death held constant at a 39% reduction in risk (RH 0.61, 95% CI 0.45, 0.88). When the period from AIDS to death was isolated, the survival benefit of CCR5-Delta32 diminished 2 years after AIDS. Protection against AIDS conferred by CCR2-64I was greatest early in the disease course. Compared with individuals without CCR5-Delta32 or CCR2-64I, individuals with one or two copies of CCR2-64I had a 58% lower risk of AIDS during the first 4 years after seroconversion (RH 0.42, 95% CI 0.23, 0.76), a 19% lower risk during the subsequent 4 years (RH 0.81, 95% CI 0.59, 1.12), and no significant protection thereafter.

CONCLUSION

The protection against AIDS provided by CCR5-Delta32 is continuous during the course of infection. In contrast, the protection provided by CCR2-64I is greatest early in the course of infection.

Discontinuation of Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus: a meta-analysis and decision analysis

We performed a meta-analysis and a decision analysis on the discontinuation of prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus who had adequate immune recovery while receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy. In the meta-analysis (14 studies with 3584 subjects who had discontinued prophylaxis), 8 cases of PCP occurred during 3449 person-years (0.23 cases per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval, 0.10-0.46]). In the decision analysis, mortality and time spent alive without immunodeficiency in the modeled discontinuation strategy were similar to those in the continuation strategy. For patients who received primary prophylaxis, the discontinuation strategy led to slightly fewer episodes of PCP and fewer toxicity-related prophylaxis withdrawals (e.g., 8.6 vs. 34.5 cases per 100 patients during a 10-year period). Patients on the discontinuation strategy were more likely to be receiving trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole when they became immunodeficient. Comparative results were similar for patients with prior PCP. Discontinuation of PCP prophylaxis in patients with adequate immune recovery is a useful strategy that should be widely considered.

Effects of CCR5-Delta32, CCR2-64I, and SDF-1 3'A alleles on HIV-1 disease progression: An international meta-analysis of individual-patient data

BACKGROUND

Studies relating certain chemokine and chemokine receptor gene alleles with the outcome of HIV-1 infection have yielded inconsistent results.

OBJECTIVE

To examine postulated associations of genetic alleles with HIV-1 disease progression.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of individual-patient data.

SETTING

19 prospective cohort studies and case-control studies from the United States, Europe, and Australia.

PATIENTS

Patients with HIV-1 infection who were of European or African descent.

MEASUREMENTS

Time to AIDS, death, and death after AIDS and HIV-1 RNA level at study entry or soon after seroconversion. Data were combined with fixed-effects and random-effects models.

RESULTS

Both the CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I alleles were associated with a decreased risk for progression to AIDS (relative hazard among seroconverters, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively; P = 0.01 for both), a decreased risk for death (relative hazard among seroconverters, 0.64 and 0.74; P < 0.05 for both), and lower HIV-1 RNA levels after seroconversion (difference, -0.18 log(10) copies/mL and -0.14 log(10) copies/mL; P < 0.05 for both). Having the CCR5-Delta32 or CCR2-64I allele had no clear protective effect on the risk for death after development of AIDS. The results were consistent between seroconverters and seroprevalent patients. In contrast, SDF-1 3'A homozygotes showed no decreased risk for AIDS (relative hazard for seroconverters and seroprevalent patients, 0.99 and 1.03, respectively), death (relative hazard, 0.97 and 1.00), or death after development of AIDS (relative hazard, 0.81 and 0.97; P > 0.5 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

The CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I alleles had a strong protective effect on progression of HIV-1 infection, but SDF-1 3'A homozygosity carried no such protection.

Replication validity of genetic association studies

The rapid growth of human genetics creates countless opportunities for studies of disease association. Given the number of potentially identifiable genetic markers and the multitude of clinical outcomes to which these may be linked, the testing and validation of statistical hypotheses in genetic epidemiology is a task of unprecedented scale. Meta-analysis provides a quantitative approach for combining the results of various studies on the same topic, and for estimating and explaining their diversity. Here, we have evaluated by meta-analysis 370 studies addressing 36 genetic associations for various outcomes of disease. We show that significant between-study heterogeneity (diversity) is frequent, and that the results of the first study correlate only modestly with subsequent research on the same association. The first study often suggests a stronger genetic effect than is found by subsequent studies. Both bias and genuine population diversity might explain why early association studies tend to overestimate the disease protection or predisposition conferred by a genetic polymorphism. We conclude that a systematic meta-analytic approach may assist in estimating population-wide effects of genetic risk factors in human disease.

Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on the comparative efficacy and safety of azithromycin against other antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections

We carried out a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of azithromycin compared with other antibiotics in the treatment of lower respiratory tract infections, including acute bronchitis (five comparisons including 1372 patients), acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis (13 comparisons including 1342 patients) and community-acquired pneumonia (18 comparisons with 1664 patients). For the first two indications, azithromycin did not offer any statistically significant reduction in clinical failures [random effects odds ratios 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-1.31 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.31-1.32, respectively] and absolute risk differences were small. For community-acquired pneumonia, azithromycin significantly reduced clinical failures by about one-third (random effects odds ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.41-0.95). The absolute incremental benefit was approximately one clinical failure prevented per 50 treated patients with community-acquired pneumonia. There was no significant heterogeneity for different comparators and for bacterial versus atypical pneumonias. Azithromycin was discontinued because of adverse events in only 23 of 3487 patients (0.7%). Although results should be interpreted cautiously as most trials were open-label and susceptible to bias, the meta-analysis indicates that, compared with antibiotics with traditional pharmacokinetics that require more prolonged courses, azithromycin offers no significant advantage for bronchitis, but may be more effective in community-acquired pneumonia.

Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on the comparative efficacy and safety of azithromycin against other antibiotics for upper respiratory tract infections

We carried out a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing 3-5 days of azithromycin with other antibiotics that are typically given in longer courses for the treatment of upper respiratory tract infections. For acute otitis media (19 comparisons including 3421 patients), acute sinusitis (11 comparisons including 1742 patients) and acute pharyngitis (16 comparisons including 2447 patients), azithromycin had similar clinical failure rates to the other antibiotics [random effects odds ratios 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-1.54; 0.91, 95% CI 0.60-1.39; and 1.07, 95% CI 0.59-1.94, respectively]. The difference in clinical failures was <0.5%, and no 95% CIs exceeded 2.0%. There was no heterogeneity between studies. Subtle differences between comparators could have been due to chance. There were no significant differences in bacteriological outcomes. Azithromycin was discontinued because of adverse events in only 37 of 4870 (0.8%) patients. Short courses of azithromycin are as effective as longer courses of other antibiotics for upper respiratory tract infections. Convenience of dosing should be balanced against the increased cost of this regimen for the treatment of these common infections, where often no antibiotic may be indicated at all.

Effect of early patient enrollment on the time to completion and publication of randomized controlled trials

The authors evaluated whether early enrollment affects the significance of the results and the time to completion and publication of randomized controlled trials. Seventy-seven efficacy randomized controlled trials (total enrollment, 28,992 patients) initiated by the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Clinical Trials Group between 1986 and 1996 were evaluated. After adjustment for target sample size, for each 10-fold increase in the first-month accrual, the odds of a trial reaching statistically significant results increased 2.8-fold (p = 0.040). The relative enrollment during the first month over target sample size (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.40 per 10 percent increase, p = 0.004) and masking (HR = 1.78 for double-blind vs. single or unblinded studies, p = 0.031) were the major predictors of faster completion. Rapid early accrual (HR = 1.09 per 10 additional patients accrued the first month, p = 0.011) and statistical significance in favor of an experimental arm (HR = 2.47, p = 0.004) independently predicted faster publication. Early enrollment is a strong predictor of whether a study will reach formal statistical significance, and it can offer predictive information on the time needed to complete the study and publish its findings. Ongoing unpublished studies and their enrollment rates may need to be considered when interpreting the accumulated evidence.

Association of collagen Ialpha 1 Sp1 polymorphism with the risk of prevalent fractures: a meta-analysis

Several studies have addressed the effect of the Spl polymorphism of the collagen Ialpha 1 (COLIA1) gene on the prevalence of fractures. The results are not in full agreement on whether this polymorphism is associated with fracture risk. To clarify this uncertainty, we performed a meta-analysis including 13 eligible studies with 3641 subjects. The COLIA1 Spl polymorphism showed a dose-response relationship with the prevalence of fractures. The risk was 1.25-fold (95% CI, 1.09-1.45) in Ss heterozygotes versus SS homozygotes, 1.68-fold (95% CI, 1.35-2.10) in ss homozygotes versus SS homozygotes, and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.04-1.75) for ss homozygotes versus Ss heterozygotes by random effects calculations. There was modest heterogeneity for these three effect estimates (p value for heterogeneity, 0.17, 0.16, and 0.08, respectively). The Sp1 polymorphism effects possibly were larger when the analysis was limited to studies considering only vertebral fractures (pooled risk ratios [RR], 1.30, 2.07, and 1.46, respectively). Conversely, the Spl polymorphism effects tended to be smaller in studies with mean patient age > or = 65 years than in studies with younger patients on average, but the differences were not formally significant. We estimated the total average attributable fraction (AF) of fractures due to the s allele in European/U.S. populations as 9.4%. The meta-analysis suggests an important role for the Spl polymorphism in the regulation of fracture risk; however, potential heterogeneity across ethnic groups, age groups, and skeletal sites may be important to clarify in future studies. Very large studies or meta-analyses are required to document subtle genetic differences in fracture risk.

Technical report: evidence for the diagnosis and treatment of acute uncomplicated sinusitis in children: a systematic overview

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and analyze the existing evidence for the diagnosis and treatment of acute uncomplicated sinusitis in children.

DESIGN

A systematic overview and meta-analysis considered all pertinent studies with at least 10 children younger than 18 years with acute symptoms of <30 days and without serious complications.

OUTCOMES

Clinical improvement rates for intervention studies of antibiotics or ancillary measures; concordance of diagnostic tests (expressed as likelihood ratios).

RESULTS

Of 1857 citations originally reviewed, we identified 21 qualifying studies, compared with 450 reports on complications of acute sinusitis and 233 nonsystematic reviews of the subject. The qualifying studies included 5 randomized, controlled trials and 8 case series on antibiotic therapy, 3 randomized, controlled trials on ancillary treatments, and 8 studies with information on diagnostic tests (including 3 therapeutic trials). Definitions and inclusion criteria were heterogeneous across studies. The pooled clinical improvement rate with antibiotics was 88% (177/202) in randomized, controlled trials and 92% (318/345) in nonrandomized studies; the improvement rates on no antibiotics were 60% and 80%, respectively. Improvement rates were significantly higher in nonrandomized studies (Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.05-3.04, stratified for use of antibiotics). Data on ancillary measures were sparse and heterogeneous. In studies comparing clinical findings with plain film radiography, the pooled rate of abnormal radiographic findings against a clinical diagnosis of sinusitis was 73% (596/814; range: 55% to 96% between studies). There was poor concordance between clinical criteria, plain radiographs, ultrasonography, computed tomography, and fluid on aspiration in all available paired assessments (all positive likelihood ratios were </=4 and all negative likelihood ratios were >/=0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Good, high-quality evidence for acute uncomplicated sinusitis in children is limited. Diagnostic modalities show poor concordance, and treatment options are based on inadequate data. More evidence is needed for defining the optimal treatment and diagnostic methods for this common condition.

Patterns of patient enrollment in randomized controlled trials

We aimed to describe enrollment patterns in a large cohort of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and evaluate whether early recruitment predicts the ability of RCTs to reach their target enrollment. We considered all 77 efficacy RCTs initiated by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group between 1986 and 1996 (28,992 patients enrolled until November 1999). Thirteen RCTs (17%) failed to reach half their target recruitment. Enrollment trajectories showed that the initial rate of accrual determined the subsequent rates of enrollment. The target sample size was attained by 7/8, 11/14, 15/35 and 4/20 of trials with very rapid, rapid, moderate and slow enrollment during the first 3 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Enrollment during the first month or two strongly correlated with subsequent accrual (P < 0.001). The patient pool, the eligibility criteria, the attractiveness of a trial and adequacy of the network of clinical sites may influence RCT enrollment. Early enrollment offers strong evidence on the feasibility of a trial and is indicative of its future pace of recruitment.

Comparison of evidence of treatment effects in randomized and nonrandomized studies

CONTEXT

There is substantial debate about whether the results of nonrandomized studies are consistent with the results of randomized controlled trials on the same topic.

OBJECTIVES

To compare results of randomized and nonrandomized studies that evaluated medical interventions and to examine characteristics that may explain discrepancies between randomized and nonrandomized studies.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (1966-March 2000), the Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2000), and major journals were searched.

STUDY SELECTION

Forty-five diverse topics were identified for which both randomized trials (n = 240) and nonrandomized studies (n = 168) had been performed and had been considered in meta-analyses of binary outcomes.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on events per patient in each study arm and design and characteristics of each study considered in each meta-analysis were extracted and synthesized separately for randomized and nonrandomized studies.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Very good correlation was observed between the summary odds ratios of randomized and nonrandomized studies (r = 0.75; P<.001); however, nonrandomized studies tended to show larger treatment effects (28 vs 11; P =.009). Between-study heterogeneity was frequent among randomized trials alone (23%) and very frequent among nonrandomized studies alone (41%). The summary results of the 2 types of designs differed beyond chance in 7 cases (16%). Discrepancies beyond chance were less common when only prospective studies were considered (8%). Occasional differences in sample size and timing of publication were also noted between discrepant randomized and nonrandomized studies. In 28 cases (62%), the natural logarithm of the odds ratio differed by at least 50%, and in 15 cases (33%), the odds ratio varied at least 2-fold between nonrandomized studies and randomized trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite good correlation between randomized trials and nonrandomized studies-in particular, prospective studies-discrepancies beyond chance do occur and differences in estimated magnitude of treatment effect are very common.

Bias in uncontrolled therapeutic trials in rheumatology due to selection of populations with extreme characteristics

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of biases from selection of patients with extreme characteristics in recent uncontrolled therapeutic studies in rheumatology.

METHODS

We hand searched 4 major rheumatology journals for uncontrolled trials published in 1997 or 1998 that measured therapeutic efficacy by comparing one or more variables at followup vs at baseline. We evaluated the susceptibility to bias from random measurement error and natural variability for variables used for defining eligibility that overlap with those used for defining outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies were analyzed. In 22 studies, the eligibility criteria were related to the outcome criteria and defined a patient population with extreme characteristics. Only 3 studies clearly reported that they had performed a baseline measurement separate from the screening (eligibility) measurement. The remaining 19 reports (76%) might be susceptible to bias: in 7, identical variables were used for eligibility criteria and outcomes; 3 used outcome variables that were also used for characterizing eligibility along with other criteria; 2 used specific eligibility variables that were part of composite outcome scores; and 7 selected patients on the basis of vague descriptors of disease severity, while disease severity was also the outcome.

CONCLUSION

Several recent uncontrolled trials of therapeutic interventions in rheumatology are subject to biases stemming from the selection of patients with extreme characteristics. Baseline evaluations separate from the screening measurements should be performed and eligibility criteria and outcomes should be carefully defined.

Identification and catheter ablation of extracardiac and intracardiac components of ligament of Marshall tissue for treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

INTRODUCTION

The ligament of Marshall is a left atrial neuromuscular bundle with sympathetic innervation that may be a source of atrial fibrillation (AF)-inducing automatic activity.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Twenty-four patients with paroxysmal AF (including 18 with adrenergic AF) and 25 with other arrhythmias underwent catheter mapping. In cases of adrenergic AF, radiofrequency ablation was attempted when Marshall potentials were recorded. Patients were followed for 2 months before and 11.2 +/- 4.2 months after the procedure. Catheterization of the distal superoposterior coronary sinus was feasible in 14 patients with AF (10 with adrenergic AF) and 12 patients without AF. A discrete Marshall potential was recorded in 12 patients with AF versus 3 patients without AF (P = 0.004). In 10 patients with adrenergic AF, this potential followed the atrial electrogram during sinus rhythm by 26 +/- 5 msec on left atrial recordings and 24 +/- 4 msec on coronary sinus recordings, and preceded it during atrial ectopy by 29 +/- 5 msec and 26 +/- 5 msec, respectively. It was abolished by epicardial (n = 1), endocardial (n = 4), or combined epicardial and endocardial ablation (n = 5). Seven patients with ablation showed significant reductions in adrenergic AF, whereas no significant change was seen in 8 adrenergic AF patients not undergoing ablation (P = 0.004). No improvement was seen in 3 of 4 patients with only endocardial ablation, whereas all 6 patients with epicardial ablation improved (P = 0.033).

CONCLUSION

Recording of Marshall potential is feasible in patients with paroxysmal AF. Combined epicardial and endocardial catheter ablation of ligament of Marshall tissue may reduce the paroxysms of adrenergic AF.

Pathways for inappropriate dispensing of antibiotics for rhinosinusitis: a randomized trial

We evaluated the extent of and factors that determine the inappropriate use of antibiotics that are obtained without a physician's prescription. Ninety-eight Greek pharmacists were visited by actress-researchers who played clients requesting antibiotics without a physician's prescription. Pharmacists were randomly challenged in a scenario that involved simulated cases of acute uncomplicated rhinosinusitis with either low fever (38.5 degrees C) or high fever (40 degrees C). Antibiotics were offered by 34 (69%) of 49 pharmacists who were presented with the high-fever scenario and by 42 (86%) of 49 pharmacists who were presented with the low-fever scenario (risk difference, 16.3%; P = .05). Thirty-two (65%) and 35 (71%) pharmacists in the high- and low-fever study arms, respectively, agreed to sell the actress-researchers broad-spectrum antibiotics. Only 28 (57%) and 17 (35%) pharmacists, respectively, recommended that the patient visit a physician (P = .03). Inappropriate recommendations regarding antibiotic use were very common in the studied setting. Antibiotics were more likely to be offered to persons who did not have a prescription when they were less likely to be clinically indicated.

Diagnosing acute cardiac ischemia in the emergency department: a systematic review of the accuracy and clinical effect of current technologies

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Acute cardiac ischemia (ACI) encompasses the diagnoses of unstable angina pectoris and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Accurate diagnosis and triage of patients with ACI in the emergency department should increase survival for these patients and reduce unnecessary hospital admissions.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of the English-language literature published between 1966 and December 1998 on the accuracy and clinical effect of diagnostic technologies for ACI. We evaluated prospective and retrospective studies of adult patients who presented to the ED with symptoms suggesting ACI. Outcomes were diagnostic performance (test sensitivity and specificity) and measures of clinical effect. Meta-analyses were performed when appropriate. A decision and cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted that investigated various diagnostic strategies used in the diagnosis of ACI in the ED.

RESULTS

We screened 6,667 abstracts, reviewed 407 full articles, and included 106 articles articles in the main analysis. Single measurements of biomarkers at presentation to the ED have low sensitivity for AMI, although they have high specificity. Serial measurements greatly increase the sensitivity for AMI while maintaining their excellent specificity. Diagnostic technologies to evaluate ACI in selected populations, such as electrocardiography, sestamibi perfusion imaging, and stress ECG, may have very good to excellent sensitivity; however, they have not been sufficiently studied. The Goldman Chest Pain Protocol has good sensitivity (about 90%) for AMI but has not been shown to result in any differences in hospitalization rate, length of stay, or estimated costs in the single clinical effect study performed. Its applicability to patients with unstable angina pectoris has not been evaluated. The use of an Acute Cardiac Ischemia-Time-Insensitive Predictive Instrument led to the appropriate triage of 97% of patients with ACI presenting to the ED and reduced unnecessary hospitalizations.

CONCLUSION

Many of the current technologies remain underevaluated, especially regarding their clinical effect. The extent to which combinations of tests may provide better accuracy than any single test needs further study.

Evidence on interventions to reduce medical errors: an overview and recommendations for future research

OBJECTIVE

To critically review the existing evidence on interventions aimed at reducing errors in health care delivery.

DESIGN

Systematic review of randomized trials on behavioral, educational, informational and management interventions relating to medical errors. Pertinent studies were identified from MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Clinical Trials Registry, and communications with experts.

SETTING

Both inpatients and outpatients qualified. No age or disease restrictions were set.

MEASUREMENTS

Outcomes were medical errors, including medication, prescription, and diagnostic errors, and excluding preventive medicine errors and simple ordering of redundant tests.

MAIN RESULTS

Thirteen randomized studies qualified for evaluation. The trials varied extensively in their patient populations (mean age, 2 weeks to 83 years), study setting, definition of errors, and interventions. Most studies could not afford masking and rigorous allocation concealment. In 9 of 13 studies, error rates in the control arms were very high (10% to 63%), and large treatment benefits from the studied interventions were demonstrated for the main outcome. Interventions were almost always effective in a sample of 24 nonrandomized studies evaluated for comparison. Actual patient harm from serious errors was rarely recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

Medical errors were very frequent in the studies we identified, arising sometimes in more than half of the cases where there is an opportunity for error. Relatively simple interventions may achieve large reductions in error rates. Evidence on reduction of medical errors needs to be better categorized, replicated, and tested in study designs maximizing protection from bias. Emphasis should be placed on serious errors.

Accuracy and clinical effect of out-of-hospital electrocardiography in the diagnosis of acute cardiac ischemia: a meta-analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate quantitatively the evidence on the diagnostic performance of out-of-hospital ECG for the diagnosis of acute cardiac ischemia (ACI) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and the clinical effect of out-of-hospital thrombolysis.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the English-language literature published between 1966 and December 1998 on the diagnostic accuracy of out-of-hospital ECG and the clinical effect of out-of-hospital thrombolysis. Both prospective and retrospective studies qualified for the assessment of diagnostic performance. For clinical effect, data from prospective nonrandomized studies were synthesized separately from data from randomized trials. Diagnostic performance was assessed by using estimates of test sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios and was summarized by using summary receiver-operating characteristic curves. Measures of clinical effect included time savings, early ventricular function, early mortality, and long-term survival.

RESULTS

Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated in 11 studies with a total of 7,508 patients. Data were available for ACI in 5 studies and for AMI in 8 studies. For ACI, the random-effects pooled sensitivity was 76% (95% CI, 54% to 89%), the specificity was 88% (95% CI, 67% to 96%), and the diagnostic odds ratio was 23 (95% CI, 6.3 to 85). The respective figures for AMI were sensitivity of 68% (95% CI, 59% to 76%), specificity of 97% (95% CI, 89% to 92%), and diagnostic odds ratio of 104 (95% CI, 48 to 224). Both in nonrandomized (n=4, total 1,531 patients) and randomized (n=9, total 6,643 patients) studies, out-of-hospital thrombolysis shortened the time from onset of symptoms to thrombolytic treatment by 40 to 60 minutes. Data on short-term ejection fraction were sparse. Hospital mortality was reduced by 16% (95% CI, 2% to 27%) among randomized trials, and a similar estimate of effect was seen in nonrandomized studies. There was no clear effect on long-term mortality, but data were sparse.

CONCLUSION

Out-of-hospital ECG has excellent diagnostic performance for AMI and very good performance for ACI. Out-of-hospital thrombolysis achieves time savings and improves short-term mortality, but the effect on long-term mortality is unknown.

Accuracy of imaging technologies in the diagnosis of acute cardiac ischemia in the emergency department: a meta-analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We sought to quantitatively evaluate the evidence on the diagnostic performance of imaging technologies (including rest and stress echocardiography and technetium-99m sestamibi scanning) for the diagnosis of acute cardiac ischemia and acute myocardial infarction in the emergency department.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the English-language literature published between 1966 and December 1998. Both prospective and retrospective studies qualified for the assessment of diagnostic performance. Diagnostic performance was assessed by means of random-effect estimates of test sensitivity, specificity, and the diagnostic odds ratio and was summarized by using summary receiver-operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated in 10 studies of rest echocardiography, 2 studies of dobutamine stress echocardiography, and 6 studies of technetium-99m sestamibi scanning. However, only 3 rest echocardiography and 5 technetium-99m sestamibi studies evaluated patients strictly in the ED setting. Patient populations were often highly selected to represent low- or moderate-risk groups. When limited to ED studies, rest echocardiography showed excellent sensitivity of 93% (95% CI, 81% to 97%) and good specificity of 66% (95% CI, 43% to 83%). The results were similar when all studies were considered, including data from reports of admitted patients and patients sent to the cardiac care unit. There was insufficient literature on stress echocardiography in the ED to properly assess the technology. Technetium-99m sestamibi scanning also showed excellent sensitivity (range, 91.5% to 100%) and good specificity (range, 49.3% to 84.4%) for acute myocardial infarction; for acute cardiac ischemia, the random-effects pooled sensitivity was 89% (95% CI, 73% to 96%), and the pooled specificity was 77% (95% CI, 63% to 87%).

CONCLUSION

For selected low- and moderate-risk patient groups, echocardiography and technetium-99m sestamibi imaging appear to have very good diagnostic performance with a similar sensitivity and specificity profile. More evidence should be accumulated on their performance specifically in the ED setting.

C-Reactive protein concentrations and angiographic characteristics of coronary lesions

BACKGROUND

C-Reactive protein (CRP) is a strong predictor of clinical outcome in coronary artery disease (CAD), and inflammation has been implicated in the process. We aimed to evaluate whether CRP concentrations measured with a new, automated particle-enhanced immunoturbidimetric method for high-sensitivity CRP may be related to specific high-risk angiographic features of coronary lesions.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, we examined 103 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac catheterization for suspected CAD. We assessed the association of preprocedural CRP concentrations with clinical presentation (unstable angina) and angiographic features of coronary lesions.

RESULTS

Twenty patients had unstable angina. Independent predictors of unstable angina included increased CRP [odds ratio (OR), 2.93 per 10-fold increase in CRP; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.28-6.69; P = 0.01] and the presence of macroscopic thrombus (OR, 7.08; 95% CI, 1.33-37.8; P = 0.02). Thirty-two culprit lesions had macroscopic thrombus or eccentric/irregular discrete morphology without total occlusion. Increased CRP was the strongest predictor of such features (OR, 2.04 per 10-fold increase in CRP; 95% CI, 1.03-4.04; P = 0.04), and the effect was independent of the presence of unstable angina.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with suspected CAD undergoing coronary angiography, increased CRP is strongly associated with unstable angina and with specific high-risk features of the culprit coronary lesions.

Accuracy of biomarkers to diagnose acute cardiac ischemia in the emergency department: a meta-analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate quantitatively the evidence on the diagnostic performance of presentation and serial biochemical markers for emergency department diagnosis of acute cardiac ischemia (ACI), including acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and unstable angina.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the English-language literature published between 1966 and December 1998. We examined the diagnostic performance of creatine kinase, creatine kinase-MB, myoglobin, and troponin I and T testing. Diagnostic performance was assessed by using estimates of test sensitivity and specificity and was summarized by summary receiver-operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Only 4 studies were found that evaluated all patients with ACI; 73 were found that focused only on a diagnosis of AMI. To diagnose ACI, presentation biomarker tests had sensitivities of 16% to 19% and specificities of 96% to 100%; serial biomarker tests had sensitivities of 31% to 45% and specificities of 95% to 98%. Considering only the diagnosis of AMI, presentation biomarker tests had summary sensitivities of 37% to 49% and summary specificities of 87% to 97%; serial biomarker tests had summary sensitivities of 79% to 93% and summary specificities of 85% to 96%. Variation of test sensitivity was best explained by test timing. Longer symptom duration or time between serial tests yielded higher sensitivity.

CONCLUSION

The limited evidence available to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers for ACI suggests that biomarkers have very low sensitivity to diagnose ACI. Thus, biomarkers alone will greatly underdiagnose ACI and will be inadequate to make triage decisions. For AMI diagnosis alone, multiple testing of individual biomarkers over time substantially improves sensitivity, while retaining high specificity, at the expense of additional time. Further high-quality studies are needed on the clinical effect of using biomarkers for patients with ACI in the ED and on optimal timing of serial testing and in combination with other tests.