Hypertension in NF1: A closer look at the primacy of essential hypertension versus secondary causes

BACKGROUND

We aimed to analyze hypertension in neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) in a Finnish population-based cohort in 1996-2014.

METHODS

A cohort of 1365 individuals with confirmed NF1 was compared with a control cohort of 13,923 individuals matched for age, sex, and area of residence. Diagnoses of hypertension were retrieved from the Finnish Care Register for Health Care. These registered data were separately analyzed for secondary and essential hypertension. Purchases of antihypertensive drugs were queried from the Finnish Register of Reimbursed Drug Purchases.

RESULTS

We identified 115 NF1 patients with hospital diagnosis of hypertension. Our findings revealed a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.64 (95% CI 1.34-2.00, p < 0.001) in NF1 versus controls. NF1 patients presented with a significantly increased hazard for both secondary hypertension (n = 9, HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.77-7.95, p < 0.001) and essential hypertension (n = 98, HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.39-2.14, p < 0.001). No difference in the HR of hypertension was observed between men and women, while NF1 patients with essential hypertension were, on average, younger than the controls. The proportions of individuals with antihypertensive medication did not differ between NF1 patients and controls (OR 0.85).

CONCLUSION

NF1 is a risk factor for hypertension. Despite the recognized risk for secondary hypertension, essential hypertension is the predominant type in NF1.

Underreporting of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Finland-Bayesian inference based on a series of serological surveys

In Finland, the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took place from March to June 2020, with the majority of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region. The magnitude and trend in the incidence of COVID-19 is one way to monitor the course of the epidemic. The diagnosed COVID-19 cases are a subset of the infections and therefore the COVID-19 incidence underestimates the SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The likelihood that an individual with SARS-CoV-2 infection is diagnosed with COVID-19 depends on the clinical manifestation as well as the infection testing policy and capacity. These factors may fluctuate over time and the underreporting of infections changes accordingly. Quantifying the extent of underreporting allows the assessment of the true incidence of infection. To obtain information on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland, a series of serological surveys was initiated in April 2020. We develop a Bayesian inference approach and apply it to data from the serological surveys, registered COVID-19 cases, and external data on antibody development, to estimate the time-dependent underreporting of SARS-Cov-2 infections during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. During the entire first wave, there were 1 to 5 (95% probability) SARS-CoV-2 infections for every COVID-19 case. The underreporting was highest before April when there were 4 to 17 (95% probability) infections for every COVID-19 case. It is likely that between 0.5%-1.0% (50% probability) and no more than 1.5% (95% probability) of the adult population in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the beginning of July 2020.

Presence of Streptococcus pyogenes in the throat in invasive Group A Streptococcal disease: a prospective two-year study in two health districts, Finland

PURPOSE

Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococcus, GAS) is an important human pathogen that can cause severe invasive (iGAS) infections. Throat carriage has been assumed to possibly lead to hematogenous seeding. Retrospective studies may estimate the incidence of throat carriage in iGAS patients inaccurately. In this study we aimed to gather data on the presence of GAS in the throat among iGAS patients in a prospective setting.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective clinical study covering iGAS infections in adult patients in two university hospitals in Finland from June 2018 to July 2020. Recruited patients' throats were swabbed for culture and isothermal amplification tests (IAT) to search for GAS. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as ID NCT03507101.

RESULTS

We enrolled 45 patients. Throat swabs were obtained from 39/45 (87%) patients. Ten patients (22%) had a positive IAT for GAS. They were statistically significantly more likely to be male (9/10 [90%] vs 13/29 [45%], p = .024). Several different emm types caused the iGAS infections.

CONCLUSIONS

GAS was frequently observed in throat swabs of patients with iGAS infection. This may suggest that hematogenous seeding from the nasopharynx is a possible portal of entry.

Whole genome sequencing reveals new links between spa t172/CC59 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus cases in low-endemicity region of Southwest Finland, 2007‒2016

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) rates have remained relatively low in Finland. In Southwest Finland, however, annual MRSA incidence increased from 12 to 25/100,000 between 2007 and 2016 with spa t172 strain causing one fourth (237/983) of all cases. This provoked us to study the molecular epidemiology of t172-MRSA, aiming to better understand the transmission of this strain type. We combined epidemiological data and whole genome sequencing (WGS) of a set of 64 (27%, 64/237) t172-MRSA isolates covering 10 years. Isolates represented sporadic and index cases of all identified healthcare-associated outbreaks (HAOs) and family clusters (FCs). Among the included 62 isolates, core-genome MLST analysis revealed eight genomic clusters comprising 24 (38.7%) isolates and 38 (61.3%) non-clustered isolates. Cluster 1 comprised ten and the remaining seven clusters two isolates each, respectively. Two epidemiologically distinct HAOs were linked in cluster 1. FCs were involved in all clusters. All strains were associated with epidemic clonal complex CC59. We were able to confirm the spread of several successful t172-MRSA subclones in regional healthcare and the community. WGS complemented routine surveillance by revealing undetected links between t172-MRSA cases. Targeted, WGS-based typing could enhance MRSA surveillance without the need for routine WGS diagnostics.

Impact of Selected Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence in Southern Finland during 2020-2021

We modelled the impact of selected meteorological factors on the daily number of new cases of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa in southern Finland from August 2020 until May 2021. We applied a DLNM (distributed lag non-linear model) with and without various environmental and non-environmental confounding factors. The relationship between the daily mean temperature or absolute humidity and COVID-19 morbidity shows a non-linear dependency, with increased incidence of COVID-19 at low temperatures between 0 to -10 °C or at low absolute humidity (AH) values below 6 g/m³. However, the outcomes need to be interpreted with caution, because the associations found may be valid only for the study period in 2020-2021. Longer study periods are needed to investigate whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has a seasonal pattern similar such as influenza and other viral respiratory infections. The influence of other non-environmental factors such as various mitigation measures are important to consider in future studies. Knowledge about associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 can be useful information for policy makers and the education and health sector to predict and prepare for epidemic waves in the coming winters.

Nanosecond-Scale Proton Emission from Strongly Oblate-Deformed ^{149}Lu

Using the fusion-evaporation reaction ^{96}Ru(^{58}Ni,p4n)^{149}Lu and the MARA vacuum-mode recoil separator, a new proton-emitting isotope ^{149}Lu has been identified. The measured decay Q value of 1920(20) keV is the highest measured for a ground-state proton decay, and it naturally leads to the shortest directly measured half-life of 450_{-100}^{+170}  ns for a ground-state proton emitter. The decay rate is consistent with l_{p}=5 emission, suggesting a dominant πh_{11/2} component for the wave function of the proton-emitting state. Through nonadiabatic quasiparticle calculations it was concluded that ^{149}Lu is the most oblate deformed proton emitter observed to date.

Approximate likelihood-based estimation method of multiple-type pathogen interactions: An application to longitudinal pneumococcal carriage data

While the serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae are known to compete during colonization in human hosts, our knowledge of how competition occurs is still incomplete. New insights of pneumococcal between‐type competition could be generated from carriage data obtained by molecular‐based detection methods, which record more complete sets of serotypes involved in co‐carriage than when detection is done by culture. Here, we develop a Bayesian estimation method for inferring between‐type interactions from longitudinal data recording the presence/absence of the types at discrete observation times. It allows inference from data containing co‐carriage of two or more serotypes, which is often the case when pneumococcal presence is determined by molecular‐based methods. The computational burden posed by the increased number of types detected in co‐carriage is addressed by approximating the likelihood under a multi‐state model with the likelihood of only those trajectories with minimum number of acquisition and clearance events between observation times. The proposed method's performance was validated on simulated data. The estimates of the interaction parameters of acquisition and clearance were unbiased in settings with short sampling intervals between observation times. With less frequent sampling, the estimates of the interaction parameters became more biased, but their ratio, which summarizes the total interaction, remained unbiased. Confounding due to unobserved heterogeneity in exposure could be corrected by including individual‐level random effects. In an application to empirical data about pneumococcal carriage in infants, we found new evidence for between‐serotype competition in clearance, although the effect size was small.

Solving the Puzzles of the Decay of the Heaviest Known Proton-Emitting Nucleus ^{185}Bi

Two long-standing puzzles in the decay of ^{185}Bi, the heaviest known proton-emitting nucleus are revisited. These are the nonobservation of the 9/2^{-} state, which is the ground state of all heavier odd-A Bi isotopes, and the hindered nature of proton and α decays of its presumed 60-μs 1/2^{+} ground state. The ^{185}Bi nucleus has now been studied with the ^{95}Mo(^{93}Nb,3n) reaction in complementary experiments using the Fragment Mass Analyzer and Argonne Gas-Filled Analyzer at Argonne National Laboratory's ATLAS facility. The experiments have established the existence of two states in ^{185}Bi; the short-lived T_{1/2}=2.8_{-1.0}^{+2.3}  μs, proton- and α-decaying ground state, and a 58(2)-μs γ-decaying isomer, the half-life of which was previously attributed to the ground state. The reassignment of the ground-state lifetime results in a proton-decay spectroscopic factor close to unity and represents the only known example of a ground-state proton decay to a daughter nucleus (^{184}Pb) with a major shell closure. The data also demonstrate that the ordering of low- and high-spin states in ^{185}Bi is reversed relative to the heavier odd-A Bi isotopes, with the intruder-based 1/2^{+} configuration becoming the ground, similar to the lightest At nuclides.

Spotlight influenza: Estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness in elderly people with assessment of residual confounding by negative control outcomes, Finland, 2012/13 to 2019/20

Background

Cohort studies on vaccine effectiveness are prone to confounding bias if the distribution of risk factors is unbalanced between vaccinated and unvaccinated study subjects.

Aim

We aimed to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness in the elderly population in Finland by controlling for a sufficient set of confounders based on routinely available register data.

Methods

For each of the eight consecutive influenza seasons from 2012/13 through 2019/20, we conducted a cohort study comparing the hazards of laboratory-confirmed influenza in vaccinated and unvaccinated people aged 65–100 years using individual-level medical and demographic data. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as 1 minus the hazard ratio adjusted for the confounders age, sex, vaccination history, nights hospitalised in the past and presence of underlying chronic conditions. To assess the adequacy of the selected set of confounders, we estimated hazard ratios of off-season hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection as a negative control outcome.

Results

Each analysed cohort comprised around 1 million subjects, of whom 37% to 49% were vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza ranged from 16% (95% confidence interval (CI): 12–19) to 48% (95% CI: 41–54). More than 80% of the laboratory-confirmed cases were hospitalised. The adjusted off-season hazard ratio estimates varied between 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94–1.05) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.15), indicating that residual confounding was absent or negligible.

Conclusion

Seasonal influenza vaccination reduces the hazard of severe influenza disease in vaccinated elderly people. Data about age, sex, vaccination history and utilisation of hospital care proved sufficient to control confounding.

Increased risk for dementia in neurofibromatosis type 1

PURPOSE

To determine the risk for dementia in neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) using a Finnish nationwide cohort of individuals with NF1, and data from national registries.

METHODS

A Finnish cohort of 1,349 individuals with confirmed NF1 according to the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) diagnostic criteria was compared with a control cohort of 13,870 individuals matched for age, sex, and area of residence. Dementia-related hospital visits were retrieved from the Finnish Care Register for Health Care using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes G30 and F00-F03. Purchases of antidementia drugs were queried with Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification code N06D from the drug reimbursement register maintained by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland. The follow-up spanned 1998-2014.

RESULTS

Totals of 16 and 165 individuals with at least two dementia-related diagnoses or drug purchases were identified in the NF1 and control cohorts, respectively. The hazard ratio for dementia in NF1 was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-2.80, P = 0.050). In an analysis stratified by the type of dementia, the risk for Alzheimer disease was increased in NF1 compared to controls with a hazard ratio of 2.88 (95% CI 1.47-5.66, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Dementia and especially Alzheimer disease are previously unrecognized neurological complications of NF1.

Impact and effectiveness of a conjugate vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease in Finland - a modelling approach

The evaluation of the public health impact of a vaccination program is essential in monitoring its policy relevance. Vaccine impact (VI) is usually assessed in a before-after design, in which data on disease burden without vaccination program is required from a historical reference period. It takes into account the indirect effects and therefore aims to describe the public health performance of the vaccination program in the population. Vaccine effectiveness (VE), measured in parallel settings, quantifies the benefit for an individual of being vaccinated but does not address the indirect effects of a vaccination program. The motivation of this paper is to gain insight into patterns of how VI and VE have manifested under large-scale use of a ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Finnish children. We construct a simple pseudo-dynamic model that mimics typical post-vaccination trends in the incidences of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease in children when the proportion of vaccine-type carriage decreases. In the context of the model, we define the parameters of interest for VI and VE and explore how their expected values evolve over time. For comparison, we demonstrate the application of VI and VE estimation by using register data.

Effectiveness of 2 Influenza Vaccines in Nationwide Cohorts of Finnish 2-Year-Old Children in the Seasons 2015-2016 Through 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

From 2015-2016 through 2017-2018, injectable, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3) and a nasal spray, tetravalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) were used in parallel in Finland. To understand how well vaccination with each vaccine type protected children against influenza under real-life conditions, vaccine effectiveness in 2-year-olds was estimated for all 3 seasons.

METHODS

Each season, a nationwide register-based cohort study was conducted. The study population comprised 60 088, 60 860, and 60 345 children in 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018, respectively. Laboratory-confirmed influenza was the study outcome. Seasonal influenza vaccination with either LAIV4 or IIV3 was the time-dependent exposure of interest. Vaccine effectiveness was defined as 1 minus the hazard ratio comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated children.

RESULTS

From 2015-2016 through 2017-2018, the effectiveness of LAIV4 against influenza of any virus type was estimated at 54.2% (95% confidence interval, 32.2-69.0%), 20.3% (-12.7%, 43.6%), and 30.5% (10.9-45.9%); the corresponding effectiveness of IIV3 was 77.2% (48.9-89.8%), 24.5% (-29.8%, 56.1%), and -20.1% (-61.5%, 10.7%). Neither influenza vaccine clearly excelled in protecting children. The LAIV4 effectiveness against type B was greater than against type A and greater than the IIV3 effectiveness against type B.

CONCLUSIONS

To understand how influenza vaccines could be improved, vaccine effectiveness must be analyzed by vaccine and virus type. Effectiveness estimates also expressing overall protection levels are needed to guide individual and programmatic decision-making processes. Supported by this analysis, the vaccination program in Finland now recommends LAIV4 and injectable, tetravalent inactivated influenza vaccines replacing IIV3.

Mitigation of biases in estimating hazard ratios under non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes-applications to influenza vaccine effectiveness

Background

Non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes in time-to-event data affects event counts as well as the risk sets, thus, biasing the estimation of hazard ratios. We investigate how imperfect observation of incident events affects the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on hazard ratios.

Methods

Imperfect time-to-event data contain two classes of events: a portion of the true events of interest; and false-positive events mistakenly recorded as events of interest. We develop an estimation method utilising a weighted partial likelihood and probabilistic deletion of false-positive events and assuming the sensitivity and the false-positive rate are known. The performance of the method is evaluated using simulated and Finnish register data.

Results

The novel method enables unbiased semiparametric estimation of hazard ratios from imperfect time-to-event data. False-positive rates that are small can be approximated to be zero without inducing bias. The method is robust to misspecification of the sensitivity as long as the ratio of the sensitivity in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated is specified correctly and the cumulative risk of the true event is small.

Conclusions

The weighted partial likelihood can be used to adjust for outcome measurement errors in the estimation of hazard ratios and effectiveness but requires specifying the sensitivity and the false-positive rate. In absence of exact information about these parameters, the method works as a tool for assessing the potential magnitude of bias given a range of likely parameter values.

Shape Coexistence at Zero Spin in ^{64}Ni Driven by the Monopole Tensor Interaction

The low-spin structure of the semimagic ^{64}Ni nucleus has been considerably expanded: combining four experiments, several 0^{+} and 2^{+} excited states were identified below 4.5 MeV, and their properties established. The Monte Carlo shell model accounts for the results and unveils an unexpectedly complex landscape of coexisting shapes: a prolate 0^{+} excitation is located at a surprisingly high energy (3463 keV), with a collective 2^{+} state 286 keV above it, the first such observation in Ni isotopes. The evolution in excitation energy of the prolate minimum across the neutron N=40 subshell gap highlights the impact of the monopole interaction and its variation in strength with N.

Search for Nova Presolar Grains: γ-Ray Spectroscopy of ^{34}Ar and its Relevance for the Astrophysical ^{33}Cl(p,γ) Reaction

The discovery of presolar grains in primitive meteorites has initiated a new era of research in the study of stellar nucleosynthesis. However, the accurate classification of presolar grains as being of specific stellar origins is particularly challenging. Recently, it has been suggested that sulfur isotopic abundances may hold the key to definitively identifying presolar grains with being of nova origins and, in this regard, the astrophysical ^{33}Cl(p,γ)^{34}Ar reaction is expected to play a decisive role. As such, we have performed a detailed γ-ray spectroscopy study of ^{34}Ar. Excitation energies have been measured with high precision and spin-parity assignments for resonant states, located above the proton threshold in ^{34}Ar, have been made for the first time. Uncertainties in the ^{33}Cl(p,γ) reaction have been dramatically reduced and the results indicate that a newly identified ℓ=0 resonance at E_{r}=396.9(13)  keV dominates the entire rate for T=0.25-0.40  GK. Furthermore, nova hydrodynamic simulations based on the present work indicate an ejected ^{32}S/^{33}S abundance ratio distinctive from type-II supernovae and potentially compatible with recent measurements of a presolar grain.

Haploinsufficiency of the NF1 gene is associated with protection against diabetes

Background

The hereditary predisposition to diabetes is only partially explained by genes identified so far. Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is a rare monogenic dominant syndrome caused by aberrations of the NF1 gene. Here, we used a cohort of 1410 patients with NF1 to study the association of the NF1 gene with type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

A total of 1410 patients were confirmed to fulfil the National Institutes of Health diagnostic criteria for NF1 by individually reviewing their medical records. The patients with NF1 were compared with 14 017 controls matched for age, sex and area of residence as well as 1881 non-NF1 siblings of the patients with NF1. Register-based information on purchases of antidiabetic medication and hospital encounters related to diabetes were retrieved. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate the relative risk for diabetes in NF1.

Results

Patients with NF1 showed a lower rate of T2D when compared with a 10-fold control cohort (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.43) or with their siblings without NF1 (HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.47). The estimates remained practically unchanged after adjusting the analyses for history of obesity and dyslipidaemias. The rate of T1D in NF1 was decreased although statistically non-significantly (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.25).

Conclusion

Haploinsufficiency of the NF1 gene may protect against T2D and probably T1D. Since NF1 negatively regulates the Ras signalling pathway, the results suggest that the Ras pathway may be involved in the pathogenesis of diabetes.

Capturing multiple-type interactions into practical predictors of type replacement following human papillomavirus vaccination

Current HPV vaccines target a subset of the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types. If HPV types compete during infection, vaccination may trigger replacement by the non-targeted types. Existing approaches to assess the risk of type replacement have focused on detecting competitive interactions between pairs of vaccine and non-vaccine types. However, methods to translate any inferred pairwise interactions into predictors of replacement have been lacking. In this paper, we develop practical predictors of type replacement in a multi-type setting, readily estimable from pre-vaccination longitudinal or cross-sectional prevalence data. The predictors we propose for replacement by individual non-targeted types take the form of weighted cross-hazard ratios of acquisition versus clearance, or aggregate odds ratios of coinfection with the vaccine types. We elucidate how the hazard-based predictors incorporate potentially heterogeneous direct and indirect type interactions by appropriately weighting type-specific hazards and show when they are equivalent to the odds-based predictors. Additionally, pooling type-specific predictors proves to be useful for predicting increase in the overall non-vaccine-type prevalence. Using simulations, we demonstrate good performance of the predictors under different interaction structures. We discuss potential applications and limitations of the proposed methodology in predicting type replacement, as compared to existing approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Silent cancer agents: multi-disciplinary modelling of human DNA oncoviruses'.

Changing epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a low endemicity area-new challenges for MRSA control

The incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has increased sharply in Hospital District of Southwest Finland (HD). To understand reasons behind this, a retrospective, population-based study covering 10 years was conducted. All new 983 MRSA cases in HD from January 2007 to December 2016 were analysed. Several data sources were used to gather background information on the cases. MRSA cases were classified as healthcare-associated (HA-MRSA), community-associated (CA-MRSA), and livestock contact was determined (livestock-associated MRSA, LA-MRSA). Spa typing was performed to all available strains. The incidence of MRSA doubled from 12.4 to 24.9 cases/100000 persons/year. The proportion of clinical infections increased from 25 to 32% in the 5-year periods, respectively, (p < 0.05). The median age decreased from 61 years in 2007 to 30 years in 2016. HA-MRSA accounted for 68% of all cases, of which 32% associated with 26 healthcare outbreaks. The proportion of CA-MRSA cases increased from 13% in 2007 to 43% in 2016. Of CA-MRSA cases, 43% were among family clusters, 32% in immigrants and 4% were LA-MRSA. The Gini-Simpson diversity index for spa types increased from 0.86 to 0.95 from the first to the second 5-year period. The proportion of a predominant strain t172 decreased from 43% in 2009 to 7% in 2016. The rise in the proportion of CA-MRSA, the switch to younger age groups, the complexity of possible transmission routes and the growing spa-type diversity characterize our current MRSA landscape. This creates challenges for targeted infection control measures, demanding further studies.

Evidence for Rigid Triaxial Deformation in ^{76}Ge from a Model-Independent Analysis

An extensive, model-independent analysis of the nature of triaxial deformation in ^{76}Ge, a candidate for neutrinoless double-beta (0νββ) decay, was carried out following multistep Coulomb excitation. Shape parameters deduced on the basis of a rotational-invariant sum-rule analysis provided considerable insight into the underlying collectivity of the ground-state and γ bands. Both sequences were determined to be characterized by the same β and γ deformation parameter values. In addition, compelling evidence for low-spin, rigid triaxial deformation in ^{76}Ge was obtained for the first time from the analysis of the statistical fluctuations of the quadrupole asymmetry deduced from the measured E2 matrix elements. These newly determined shape parameters are important input and constraints for calculations aimed at providing, with suitable accuracy, the nuclear matrix elements relevant to 0νββ.

Masses and Beta-decay Studies of Neutron-rich Nuclei using the X-array and Gammasphere

Properties of neutron-rich nuclei in the A˜160 region are important for achieving a better understanding of the nuclear structure in this region where little is known owing to diffculties in the production of these nuclei at the present nuclear physics facilities. These properties are essential ingredients in the interpretation of the rareearth peak at A˜160 in the r process abundance distribution, since theoretical models are sensitive to nuclear structure input. Predicated on these ideas, we have initiated a new experimental program at Argonne National Laboratory. During the first experiment, beams from the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade radioactive beam facility were used in conjunction with the SATURN decay station and the X-array. We focused initially on several odd-odd nuclei, where β decays of both the ground state and an excited isomer were investigated. Because of the spin difference, a variety of structures in the daughter nuclei were selectively populated and characterized based on their decay properties. Mass measurements using the Canadian Penning Trap aimed at establishing the excitation energy of the β-decaying isomers were also carried out. Evidence was found for a change in the single-particle structure, which in turn results in the formation of a sizable N=98 sub-shell gap at large deformation. Results from the first experimental campaign using the newly-commissioned β-decay station at Gammasphere are also presented.

Cohort study design for estimating the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in real time based on register data: The Finnish example

This paper presents the principles of implementing register-based cohort studies as currently applied for real-time estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness in Finland. All required information is retrieved from computerised national registers and deterministically linked via the unique personal identity code assigned to each Finnish resident. The study cohorts comprise large subpopulations eligible for a free seasonal influenza vaccination as part of the National Vaccination Programme. The primary outcome is laboratory-confirmed influenza. Each study subject is taken to be at risk of experiencing the outcome from the onset of the influenza season until the first of the following three events occurs: outcome, loss to follow up or end of season. Seasonal influenza vaccination is viewed as time-dependent exposure. Accordingly, each subject may contribute unvaccinated and vaccinated person-time during their time at risk. The vaccine effectiveness is estimated as one minus the influenza incidence rate ratio comparing the vaccinated with the unvaccinated within the study cohorts. Data collection in register-based research is an almost fully automated process. The effort, resources and the time spent in the field are relatively small compared to other observational study designs. This advantage is pivotal when vaccine effectiveness estimates are needed in real time. The paper outlines possible limitations of register-based cohort studies. It also addresses the need to explore how national and subnational registers available in the Nordic countries and elsewhere can be utilised in vaccine effectiveness research to guide decision making and to improve individual health as well as public health.

Superallowed α Decay to Doubly Magic ^{100}Sn

We report the first observation of the ^{108}Xe→^{104}Te→^{100}Sn α-decay chain. The α emitters, ^{108}Xe [E_{α}=4.4(2)  MeV, T_{1/2}=58_{-23}^{+106}  μs] and ^{104}Te [E_{α}=4.9(2)  MeV, T_{1/2}<18  ns], decaying into doubly magic ^{100}Sn were produced using a fusion-evaporation reaction ^{54}Fe(^{58}Ni,4n)^{108}Xe, and identified with a recoil mass separator and an implantation-decay correlation technique. This is the first time α radioactivity has been observed to a heavy self-conjugate nucleus. A previous benchmark for study of this fundamental decay mode has been the decay of ^{212}Po into doubly magic ^{208}Pb. Enhanced proton-neutron interactions in the N=Z parent nuclei may result in superallowed α decays with reduced α-decay widths significantly greater than that for ^{212}Po. From the decay chain, we deduce that the α-reduced width for ^{108}Xe or ^{104}Te is more than a factor of 5 larger than that for ^{212}Po.

Probing the Single-Particle Character of Rotational States in ^{19}F Using a Short-Lived Isomeric Beam

A beam containing a substantial component of both the J^{π}=5^{+}, T_{1/2}=162  ns isomeric state of ^{18}F and its 1^{+}, 109.77-min ground state is utilized to study members of the ground-state rotational band in ^{19}F through the neutron transfer reaction (d,p) in inverse kinematics. The resulting spectroscopic strengths confirm the single-particle nature of the 13/2^{+} band-terminating state. The agreement between shell-model calculations using an interaction constructed within the sd shell, and our experimental results reinforces the idea of a single-particle-collective duality in the descriptions of the structure of atomic nuclei.

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases

BACKGROUND

Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods.

DISCUSSION

Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects.

CONCLUSION

Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.

Acquisition and Transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae Are Facilitated during Rhinovirus Infection in Families with Children

RATIONALE

Laboratory and clinical evidence suggests synergy between rhinoviruses and Streptococcus pneumoniae in the pathogenesis of respiratory tract infections. However, it is unclear whether rhinoviruses promote pneumococcal acquisition and transmission.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the impact of rhinovirus infection on the acquisition and transmission of pneumococci within families with children.

METHODS

We investigated 29 families with at least two children. The follow-up started at the onset of respiratory infectious symptoms in any family member and consisted of daily symptom diary and nasal swab samples from each participant twice per week for 3 weeks. Swabs were taken by the parents and sent to a study clinic by mail. Rhinoviruses were detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and typed by sequencing. Pneumococci were identified by an antigen test and by standard culture methods, serotyping, and whole-genome sequencing. The effect of rhinovirus infection on the rates of pneumococcal acquisition and within-family transmission was estimated from the observed acquisition events and person-times spent uncolonized, using Poisson regression.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Rhinovirus was detected in 38 subjects (30%) at the onset and in 86 subjects (67%) during the follow-up. S. pneumoniae was detected on the first day in 9 (7%) and during follow-up in 38 (30%) subjects. Children with rhinovirus infection had a 4.3-fold rate of pneumococcal acquisition from the community (95% confidence interval, 1.1-15.4) and a 14.8-fold rate of within-family transmission (95% confidence interval, 3.1-69.6) compared with children without rhinovirus infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Rhinovirus infection within families facilitates acquisition and within-family transmission of S. pneumoniae.

Obesity, Underweight, and Smoking Are Associated with Worse Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Finnish Healthy Young Men: A Population-Based Study

Background

Obesity and smoking are strongly associated with worse cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). Most previous studies that have examined the association of body composition with CRF have neither assessed non-linearity nor separately examined the effects of underweight. Thus, very little is known on how underweight affects CRF. Possible joint effects of obesity and smoking on CRF have not been adequately explored.

Aims

We examined the association between body mass index (BMI) and smoking with CRF in 1,629 Finnish army conscripts. We focused on non-linear effects of BMI in order to assess the importance of underweight. We also examined whether the cooccurrence of obesity and smoking potentiates their deleterious effects on CRF.

Methods

We used the Cooper’s 12-minute run test (12MR) to measure CRF. The 12MR score was analyzed as continuous (linear, polynomial, and restricted cubic spline regression) and categorical. In categorical analyses, we used binary logistic regression with the 12MR score in two groups (low = lowest quintile vs. intermediate/high = quintiles 2–5) and multinomial logistic regression with the 12MR score in three groups (low = lowest quintile, intermediate = quintiles 2 and 3, and high = quintiles 4 and 5).

Results

Non-linearity in the spline model was statistically significant (p < 0.001). In addition, the non-linear models had a clearly better fit than the linear one in terms of Akaike Information Criterion and R-squared values. There was a statistically significant interaction between smoking and BMI (p < 0.01). In the categorical analysis, overweight/obese regular smokers were at a particularly high risk of not achieving high CRF.

Conclusion

In healthy young men, not only overweight/obesity but also underweight may be associated with worse CRF. This provides a potential mechanism for the previously reported association between underweight and increased mortality. The cooccurrence of overweight/obesity and regular smoking may have a deleterious effect on CRF.

Sustained reduction in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease despite waning effects of a catch-up campaign in Kilifi, Kenya: A mathematical model based on pre-vaccination data

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We predict a substantial decline in the carriage prevalence of vaccine serotypes.

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About a 56% reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease is also predicted.

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The decline is predicted to be sustainable ten years post-vaccination.

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The current vaccination schedule is unlikely to achieve elimination of vaccine serotypes.

Background

In 2011, Kenya introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine together with a catch-up campaign for children aged <5 years in Kilifi County. In a post-vaccination surveillance study based in Kilifi, there was a substantial decline in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). However, given the continued circulation of the vaccine serotypes it is possible that vaccine-serotype disease may re-emerge once the effects of the catch-up campaign wear off.

Methods

We developed a compartmental, age-structured dynamic model of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease for three serotype groups: the 10-valent vaccine serotypes and two groups of non-vaccine serotypes based on their susceptibility to mutual competition. The model was calibrated to age- and serotype-specific data on carriage and IPD in the pre-vaccination era and used to predict carriage prevalence and IPD up to ten years post-vaccination in Kilifi. The model was validated against the observed carriage prevalence after vaccine introduction.

Results

The model predicts a sustained reduction in vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage prevalence from 33% to 8% in infants and from 30% to 8% in 1–5 year olds over the 10-year period following vaccine introduction. The incidence of IPD is predicted to decline across all age groups resulting in an overall reduction of 56% in the population, corresponding to 10.4 cases per 100,000 per year. The vaccine-type IPD incidence is estimated to decline by 83% while non-vaccine-type IPD incidence is predicted to increase by 52%. The model's predictions of carriage prevalence agrees well with the observed data in the first five years post-vaccination.

Conclusion

We predict a sustained and substantial decline in IPD through PCV vaccination and that the current regimen is insufficient to fully eliminate vaccine-serotype circulation in the model. We show that the observed impact is likely to be sustained despite waning effects of the catch-up campaign.

New Pneumococcal Carriage Acquired in Association with Acute Respiratory Infection Is Prone to Cause Otitis Media

For considering vaccine-prevention of pneumococcal acute otitis media (PncAOM), relationships between pneumococcal carriage, respiratory infection and PncAOM need to be understood. We analyzed nasopharyngeal samples collected from 329 unvaccinated Finnish children aged 2-24 months at scheduled visits and at visits during respiratory infection in 1994-97. We assessed temporal associations of respiratory infection with pneumococcal acquisition and whether PncAOM hazard depends on the relative timing of acquisition and the infection onset. The data comprised 607 person-years of risk-time for acquisition, 245 person-months of concurrent respiratory infection and carriage, and 119 episodes of PncAOM. The acquisition hazard was 3-fold in the month preceding respiratory sickness (hazard ratio, HR 3.5, 90% credible interval CI 2.9, 4.1) as compared to acquisition in healthy children. Moreover, the PncAOM hazard was markedly higher (HR 3.7, 90% CI 2.4, 5.3) during the first month of carriage acquired around the acute phase of respiratory infection (between 1 month before and 1 week after the sickness onset), as compared to carriage acquired later during sickness. The high proportion (76%) of PncAOM events occurring within 1 month of acquisition was due to frequent acquisition being associated with respiratory infection as well as the susceptibility of such acquisition to cause otitis media.

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 – 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 – 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic.

In 2009, the threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (referenced in media as ‘swine flu’) created a heavy burden to the public health systems wordwide. In Finland, an extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season 2009/2010. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We built a probabilistic model of influenza transmission that accounts for observation bias and the possible impact of the changing weather and population behaviour. We used the model to simulate the spread of influenza in Finland during the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on social contacts in the population, we estimated that 9% of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 during the studied period. Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season.

Estimation and interpretation of heterogeneous vaccine efficacy against recurrent infections

Vaccine-induced protection may not be homogeneous across individuals. It is possible that a vaccine gives complete protection for a portion of individuals, while the rest acquire only incomplete (leaky) protection of varying magnitude. If vaccine efficacy is estimated under wrong assumptions about such individual level heterogeneity, the resulting estimates may be difficult to interpret. For instance, population-level predictions based on such estimates may be biased. We consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous vaccine efficacy against an infection that can be acquired multiple times (susceptible-infected-susceptible model). The estimation is based on a limited number of repeated measurements of the current status of each individual, a situation commonly encountered in practice. We investigate how the placement of consecutive samples affects the estimability and efficiency of vaccine efficacy parameters. The same sampling frequency may not be optimal for efficient estimation of all components of heterogeneous vaccine protection. However, we suggest practical guidelines allowing estimation of all components. For situations in which the estimability of individual components fails, we suggest to use summary measures of vaccine efficacy.

Dynamics of pneumococcal transmission in vaccine-naive children and their HIV-infected or HIV-uninfected mothers during the first 2 years of life

Pneumococcal vaccine-naïve mother-child dyads in South Africa had nasopharyngeal swabs taken 9 times within the first 2 years of the children's lives between January 2007 and May 2009. To quantify the strength of the association of serotype-specific carriage in mother-child dyads, a stochastic transmission model was fitted to the data. Children were more susceptible to individual serotypes included in the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) transmitted by their mothers than vice versa; however, children infected their mothers with these serotypes more frequently than mothers infected children. The child-to-mother steady-state forces of pneumococcal acquisition were between 0.36 and 3.29 (per 1,000 days) compared with 0.06-0.51 for mother-to-child transmission. Although children of mothers infected with human immunodeficiency virus were more often exposed to PCV7 serotypes by their mothers, their risk of acquisition remained low compared with the risk of child-to-mother transmission. Mothers acquired pneumococci at lower rates (per 1,000 days) from unmeasured exposure within families and in the wider community (range, 0.12-1.69 per 1,000 days) than did children (range, 1.10-5.21 per 1,000 days). Pneumococcal immunization of young children is expected to have an indirect effect of reducing PCV7 serotype maternal colonization and possibly disease even in settings such as ours, in which there is a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus-infected mothers.

Design questions for Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccine trials with a colonisation endpoint

Evaluation of vaccine efficacy for protection against colonisation (VEcol) with Streptococcus pneumoniae and other bacterial pathogens is often based on a cross-sectional study design, in which only one nasopharyngeal sample is obtained per study subject. Here we investigate the feasibility of this study design by investigating a number of practical design problems. Specific questions are related to the timing of colonisation measurement with respect to the time of vaccination, the adjustment for the within-host replacement of vaccine-type colonisation by the non-vaccine type pneumococci, and the impact of multiple serotype colonisation on VEcol estimation. We also discuss the issue of choosing the control vaccine, including comparison of two active pneumococcal vaccines, as well as the sample size and the statistical power of colonisation endpoint trials. In addition, the statistical design with the specific aim to include information about VEcol in the licensure process of new pneumococcal vaccine products is discussed.

Comparative analysis of Streptococcus pneumoniae transmission in Portuguese and Finnish day-care centres

Background

Day-care centre (DCC) attendees play a central role in maintaining the circulation of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the population. The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage is highest in DCC attendees but varies across countries and is found to be consistently lower in Finland than in Portugal. We compared key parameters underlying pneumococcal transmission in DCCs to understand which of these contributed to the observed differences in carriage prevalence.

Methods

Longitudinal data about serotype-specific carriage in DCC attendees in Portugal (47 children in three rooms; mean age 2 years; range 1–3 years) and Finland (91 children in seven rooms; mean age 4 years; range 1–7 years) were analysed with a continuous-time event history model in a Bayesian framework. The monthly rates of within-room transmission, community acquisition and clearing carriage were estimated.

Results

The posterior mean of within-room transmission rate was 1.05 per month (Portugal) vs. 0.63 per month (Finland). The smaller rate of clearance in Portugal (0.57 vs. 0.73 per month) is in accordance with the children being younger. The overall community rate of acquisition was larger in the Portuguese setting (0.25 vs. 0.11 per month), in agreement with that the groups belonged to a larger DCC. The model adequately predicted the observed levels of carriage prevalence and longitudinal patterns in carriage acquisition and clearance.

Conclusions

The difference in prevalence of carriage (61% in Portuguese vs. 26% among Finnish DCC attendees) was assigned to the longer duration of carriage in younger attendees and a significantly higher rate of within-room transmission and community acquisition in the Portuguese setting.

Estimating strain-specific and overall efficacy of polyvalent vaccines against recurrent pathogens from a cross-sectional study

Evaluating vaccine efficacy for protection against colonization with bacterial pathogens is an area of growing interest. Colonization of the nasopharynx is an asymptomatic carrier state responsible for person-to-person transmission. It differs from most clinical outcomes in that it is common, recurrent, and observed only in its prevalent state. To estimate rates of acquisition and clearance of colonization requires repeated active sampling of the same individuals over time, an expensive and invasive undertaking. Motivated by feasibility constraints in efficacy trials with colonization endpoints, investigators have been estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional studies without principled methods. We present two examples of vaccine studies estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional data on nasopharyngeal colonization by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus). This study presents a framework for defining and estimating strain-specific and overall vaccine efficacy for susceptibility to acquisition of colonization (VE(acq)) when there is a large number of strains with mutual interactions and recurrent dynamics of colonization. We develop estimators based on one observation of the current status per study subject, evaluate their robustness, and re-analyze the two vaccine trials. Methodologically, the proposed estimators are closely related to case-control studies with prevalent cases, with appropriate consideration of the at-risk time in choosing the controls.

Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.

The fundamental link between pneumococcal carriage and disease

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a major cause of worldwide mortality and morbidity, and to a large extent is vaccine-preventable. Nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus precedes disease and is the source of pneumococcal spread between people. The use of vaccine effect on carriage as part of the vaccine licensure and post-vaccine introduction evaluation could facilitate and expand the licensure of new, life-saving pneumococcal vaccines and enable a comprehensive estimate of population effects after vaccine introduction. The authors provide a review of the evidence supporting pneumococcal carriage at the individual level as an immediate and necessary precursor to pneumococcal disease. Based on such a causal link between carriage and disease, the authors emphasize the role of information on pneumococcal carriage in vaccine trials and in public health decision-making.

Optimal designs for epidemiologic longitudinal studies with binary outcomes

Alternating presence and absence of a medical condition in human subjects is often modelled as an outcome of underlying process dynamics. Longitudinal studies provide important insights into research questions involving such dynamics. This article concerns optimal designs for studies in which the dynamics are modelled as a binary continuous-time Markov process. Either one or both the transition rate parameters in the model are to be estimated with maximum precision from a sequence of observations made at discrete times on a number of subjects. The design questions concern the choice of time interval between observations, the initial state of each subject and the choice between number of subjects versus repeated observations per subject. Sequential designs are considered due to dependence of the designs on the model parameters. The optimal time spacing can be approximated by the reciprocal of the sum of the two rates. The initial distribution of the study subjects should be taken into account when relatively few repeated samples per subject are to be collected. A study with a reasonably large size should be designed in more than one phase because there are then enough observations to be spent in the first phase to revise the time spacing for the subsequent phases.

Serotype-specific hyporesponsiveness to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in infants carrying pneumococcus at the time of vaccination

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether pneumococcal carriage at the time of 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-11) administration interferes with immune response in infants.

STUDY DESIGN

A total of 1111 Filipino infants recruited into an immunogenicity and carriage study, nested in an efficacy trial, received PCV-11 or saline solution placebo at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Antibody concentrations to the most frequently carried vaccine serotypes 6B, 19F, and 23F were measured by enzyme immunoassay from sera obtained at 18 weeks and 9 months of age. Serotype-specific antibody concentration was compared between groups of children among PCV-11 recipients stratified according to their carriage status at 6 weeks of age.

RESULTS

Antibody concentrations to 6B, 19F, and 23F were significantly lower at 18 weeks and 9 months of age among children who were carriers of the specific serotype at 6 weeks of age than among non-carriers of the serotype. The hyporesponsiveness was specific to the carried serotype. The specific antibody concentrations induced by PCV-11 among carriers did not differ significantly from those in placebo recipients, whereas the differences were highly significant among noncarriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumococcal carriage, prevalent in Filipino infants, interferes with serotype-specific immune response to primary series of PCV and has potential implications for immunization programs.