Lessons from a population-based bladder cancer registry: exploring why survival is not improving

OBJECTIVE

To explore the causes of the decrease in bladder cancer survival that has occurred over the past four decades.

METHODS

We extracted data from the South Australian Cancer Registry. Data from the period 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2020 were extracted to explore changes in incidence and survival among a total of 8356 patients diagnosed with ≥pT1 disease. Invasive bladder cancer was defined as ≥pT1 in this study.

RESULTS

Invasive bladder cancer age-standardized incidence decreased from 7.20 cases per 100 000 people in 1977 to 5.85 cases per 100 000 in 2020. The mean age at diagnosis increased from 68 years to 76 years. The crude incidence for patients aged 80 years and over increased by 3.3% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1 to 4.6). Overall survival decreased over the study period (hazard ratio [HR] 1.22 [95% CI 1.09 to 1.35]), however, survival increased after adjusting for age at diagnosis (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.76 to 0.94]). Despite a decrease in non-bladder cancer-specific deaths in older people, there was no change in the bladder cancer-specific death rate in older people (HR 0.94 [95% CI 0.70 to 1.26]). Male sex was associated with higher survival (HR 0.87 [95% CI 0.83 to 0.92]), whereas socioeconomic advantage was not.

CONCLUSIONS

Invasive bladder cancer survival has decreased over the past 40 years, with the age structure of the population being a significant contributing factor.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We looked at why bladder cancer survival is decreasing using a large cancer registry with information from 1977 to 2020. We found that people are now more likely to be diagnosed at an older age. Older people often live for a shorter time with bladder cancer compared to younger people. Bladder cancer survival has decreased because there are more older people with the disease than previously.

Counting culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) children in Australian health research: Does it matter how we count?

OBJECTIVE

To describe how culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) children are identified and enumerated in routine data collections and in child health research in Australia.

METHODS

Descriptive analysis, where different definitions of CALD were applied to the 2021 Australian Census to measure the size of the CALD population of Australian children aged 0 to 17 years. Narrative review of the Australian child health literature to examine how CALD children were defined.

RESULTS

Applying various definitions to the 2021 Census, the estimated proportion of CALD children aged 0 to 17 ranged from 6.3% to 43%. The most commonly applied CALD indicators were language background other than English and being born overseas.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no consensus on how CALD is defined in Australian child health research. Application of different CALD indicators can generate up to seven-fold differences in estimates of who counts as being a CALD child.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

If we are to advance health and well-being equity for CALD children, we need a more consistent approach to understanding which children are counted as CALD.

The 'hot zone policy' for colorectal cancer screening presents unique risks and opportunities for rural Australia

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer has geographic inequities in Australia, with higher mortality rates and lower participation in the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) in remote and rural areas. The at-home kit is temperature-sensitive, necessitating a 'hot zone policy' (HZP); kits are not sent when an area's average monthly temperature is above 30°C. Australians in HZP areas are susceptible to potential screening disruptions but may benefit from well-timed interventions to improve participation. This study describes the demographics of HZP areas and estimates the impacts of potential screening changes.

METHODS

The number of individuals in HZP areas was estimated, as well as correlations with remoteness, socio-economic and Indigenous status. The potential impacts of screening changes were estimated.

RESULTS

Over a million eligible Australians live in HZP areas, which are more likely to be remote/rural, have lower socio-economic status and higher Indigenous populations. Predictive modelling estimates that any 3-month screening disruption would increase CRC mortality rates up to 4.1 times more in HZP areas vs unaffected areas, while targeted intervention could decrease mortality rates 3.4 times more in HZP areas.

CONCLUSION

People living in affected areas would be negatively impacted by any NBCSP disruption, compounding existing inequities. However, well-timed health promotion could have a stronger impact.

Public health partner authorities-How a health in all policies approach could support the development of a wellbeing economy

ISSUE ADDRESSED

Collaboration and partnerships across sectors are critical to the realisation of a wellbeing economy. Wellbeing SA-a government agency in South Australia-utilises a partnership mechanism under the state's public health legislation to achieve collaborative action for improved population health and wellbeing: Public Health Partner Authorities (PHPAs).

METHODS

The establishment and implementation of PHPAs draws strongly on the principles and practices of South Australia's Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach. This includes the utilisation of cross-sectoral partnerships to facilitate the implementation of co-design and co-benefits principles to deliver policies that support improved population health and wellbeing, while simultaneously delivering other societal benefits. Partnerships also facilitate the sharing of knowledge and resources, and the creation of joint solutions to complex policy issues.

RESULTS

PHPAs have been reported to offer a valuable, evidence-based and practical mechanism for embedding key concepts of wellbeing into the policies, practices and programs of other sectors, and provide the potential as one important tool for the formation of a wellbeing economy.

CONCLUSIONS

The achievement of a wellbeing economy is dependent on collaboration within and between sectors, and through strong community engagement. Developing a joint and inclusive understanding of wellbeing and its importance as a societal goal is critical, and can only be achieved through collaborative approaches. The implementation of PHPAs in South Australia has demonstrated the importance of partnerships to address complex issues across sectors, and has identified key elements to successful partnerships. SO WHAT?: South Australia's experience in implementing PHPAs and HiAP has demonstrated how health promotion practice, policy and research that incorporate successful partnerships can support high quality, effective intersectoral collaboration for the benefit of citizens, including some lessons that may be worth considering in the development and realisation of a wellbeing economy.

Twenty years of melanoma in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia (1997 - 2016)

BACKGROUND

Given the high incidence of melanoma in Australia alongside high mortality with later stage disease, we investigated the populations and locations most at risk, to optimise public health activities in areas where intervention is most needed. This study examines trends and identifies significant prognostic factors and potential disparities in incidence, mortality and survival between population groups in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

METHODS

The analysis includes data from the population-based cancer registries of the three states over a twenty-year period (1997-2016). Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates were calculated, and long-term trends analysed using Joinpoint Regression. Five-year relative survival estimates for the study population were calculated using the cohort method and multivariable flexible parametric survival models were applied for each jurisdiction to calculate adjusted excess mortality hazard ratios for the key characteristics.

RESULTS

There were more males with melanoma than females in all the three states. Over 60% of the cases occurred in the 40-74 years age group. Most melanomas had a Breslow thickness less than or equal to 1.0 mm. For males, Victoria and Queensland had a statistically significant increasing trend whereas in South Australia there was a decreasing trend. For females, the incidence rate trend was stable in Victoria but significantly decreasing in South Australia. In Queensland there was an increasing and statistically significant trend from 2006 to 2016. Across all three states there was a reducing incidence rate in the youngest cohort, stabilizing incidence in the 40-59-year-old age group, and increasing in the oldest cohorts. Five-year relative survival decreased with increasing age and with Breslow thickness across all three jurisdictions. Males had between 43%- 46% excess mortality compared to females in all the three states. There was higher risk with increasing age and Breslow thickness, with the largest risk among the 75 + age group and those with a Breslow thickness of > 4 mm.

CONCLUSION

It is the first time that data from these three registries has been analysed together in a uniform way, covering more than half of the Australian population. This study compares the epidemiology of melanoma across three states and provides a better understanding of trends and factors affecting outcome for Australians with melanoma. While there has been some improvement in aspects of incidence and mortality, this has not been evenly achieved across Australia.

Child protection contact among children of culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds: A South Australian linked data study

AIM

To describe the cumulative incidence of child protection (CP) system contact, maltreatment type, source of reports to age 7 years, and socio-demographic characteristics for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) Australian children.

METHODS

We used CP, education, health, and birth registrations data for children followed from birth up to age 7 from the South Australian Better Evidence, Better Outcomes, Linked Data (SA BEBOLD) platform.

PARTICIPANTS

SA born children enrolled in their first year of school from 2009 to 2015 (n = 76 563). CALD defined as non-Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, spoken language other than English, Indigenous or Sign, or had at least one parent born in a non-English speaking country.

OUTCOMES MEASURES

For CALD and non-CALD children, we estimated the cumulative incidence (risk) of CP contacts up to age 7, relative risk and risk differences for all levels of CP contact from notification to out-of-home care (OOHC), primary maltreatment type, reporter type, and socio-economic characteristics. Sensitivity analyses explored different population selection criteria and CALD definitions.

RESULTS

By age 7, 11.2% of CALD children had 'screened-in' notifications compared to 18.8% of non-CALD (risk difference [RD] 7.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 6.9-8.3)), and 0.6% of CALD children experienced OOHC compared to 2.2% of non-CALD (RD 1.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 1.3-1.8)). Emotional abuse was the most common substantiated maltreatment type for CALD and neglect for non-CALD. Among both groups, the most common reporter sources were police and education sector. Socio-economic characteristics were broadly similar. Sensitivity analyses results were consistent with primary analyses.

CONCLUSION

By age 7, CALD children had lower risk of contact with all levels of CP. Estimates based on primary and sensitivity analyses suggested CALD children were 5-9 percentage points less likely to have a report screened-in, and from 1.0 to 1.7 percentage points less likely to have experienced OOHC.

Community gardens and their effects on diet, health, psychosocial and community outcomes: a systematic review

Background

We systematically reviewed the effects of community gardens on physical and psychosocial health, health behaviors and community outcomes.

Methods

Quantitative studies that examined associations of health, psychosocial or community outcomes with community gardens were included in the review. Studies up to December 2020 were captured from searches of Medline, Web of Science, PsycInfo, EBSCOHost and CAB Abstracts. Data were extracted and study quality including risk of bias was examined.

Results

There were 53 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Studies examining associations between community gardens and nutrition or food security were most frequently reported (k = 23). Other factors examined for associations with community gardens were health (k = 16), psychosocial (k = 16) and community outcomes (k = 7). Effects appeared positive for fruit and vegetable intake, some psychosocial and community outcomes, but mixed for physical health outcomes. Evidence quality overall was low.

Conclusions

Community gardening was associated with higher fruit and vegetable intake, positive psychosocial and community outcomes, but poor evidence quality suggests the effects of community gardening may be overestimated.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13591-1.

COVID-19 vaccine willingness prior to and during the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Australia

This study aimed to assess vaccine willingness, and the reasons why respondents were not likely to receive COVID-19 vaccine prior to and during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. This cross-sectional survey (n = 5,130) was conducted between January and April 2021 in South Australia, Australia. Weighted multiple logistic regression was performed to assess the association between sociodemographic/health factors and outcome measures. The percentage of respondents who stated they were very likely to get vaccinated fluctuated between 50% and 78% during the survey period. The willingness of receiving COVID-19 vaccination was significantly lower among women than men (aOR: 0.70) and higher among adults ≥50 years (aOR: 1.82 for 50–69 years and aOR: 3.01 for ≥70 years vs 16–29-year olds). Other factors significantly associated with higher willingness were ≥Year 12 education (aOR: 2.50 for Year 12/TAFE/certificate/diploma vs <Year 12 education; aOR: 1.44 for bachelor’s degree or higher vs <Year 12 education), highest socioeconomic level vs lowest socioeconomic level (aOR: 1.75), and unpaid work/retirement/other vs unemployment (aOR: 1.77). Other factors such as being Aboriginal, not being married, not having chronic illness, and/or culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds were identified to be significantly related to low confidence in vaccine safety, perceived low risk of disease and/or perceived lack of information. Parents or caregivers were significantly less willing for their child to be vaccinated compared to people in general (OR: 0.62). Targeted campaigns to improve uptake need to include appropriate messaging about vaccine safety and disease burden in addition to strategies to improve access to less willing groups.

Opening up safely: public health system requirements for ongoing COVID-19 management based on evaluation of Australia's surveillance system performance

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community transmission was eliminated in Australia from 1/11/2020 to 30/6/2021, allowing evaluation of surveillance system performance in detecting novel outbreaks, including against variants of concern (VoCs). This paper aims to define system requirements for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance under future transmission and response scenarios, based on surveillance system performance to date.

METHODS

This study described and evaluated surveillance systems and epidemiological characteristics of novel outbreaks based on publicly available data, and assessed surveillance system sensitivity and timeliness in outbreak detection. These findings were integrated with analysis of other critical COVID-19 public health measures to establish future COVID-19 management requirements.

RESULTS

Twenty-five epidemiologically distinct outbreaks and five distinct clusters were identified in the study period, all linked through genomic sequencing to novel introductions from international travellers. Seventy percent (21/30) were detected through community testing of people with acute respiratory illness, and 30% (9/30) through quarantine screening. On average, 2.07% of the State population was tested in the week preceding detection for those identified through community surveillance. From 17/30 with publicly available data, the average time from seeding to detection was 4.9 days. One outbreak was preceded by unexpected positive wastewater results. Twenty of the 24 outbreaks in 2021 had publicly available sequencing data, all of which identified VoCs. A surveillance strategy for future VoCs similar to that used for detecting SARS-CoV-2 would require a 100-1000-fold increase in genomic sequencing capacity compared to the study period. Other essential requirements are maintaining outbreak response capacity and developing capacity to rapidly engineer, manufacture, and distribute variant vaccines at scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Australia's surveillance systems performed well in detecting novel introduction of SARS-CoV-2 while community transmission was eliminated; introductions were infrequent and case numbers were low. Detection relied on quarantine screening and community surveillance in symptomatic members of the general population, supported by comprehensive genomic sequencing. Once vaccine coverage is maximised, future COVID-19 control should shift to detection of SARS-CoV-2 VoCs, requiring maintenance of surveillance systems and testing all international arrivals, alongside greatly increased genomic sequencing capacity. Effective government support of localised public health response mechanisms and engagement of all sectors of the community is crucial to current and future COVID-19 management.

Acute respiratory infection symptoms and COVID-19 testing behaviour: results based on South Australian health surveys

Background

Effective syndromic surveillance alongside COVID-19 testing behaviours in the population including in higher risk and hard to reach subgroups is vital to detect re-emergence of COVID-19 transmission in the community. The aim of this paper was to identify the prevalence of acute respiratory infection symptoms and coronavirus testing behaviour among South Australians using data from a population based survey.

Methods

We used cross-sectional data from the 2020 state-wide population level health survey on 6857 respondents aged 18 years and above. Descriptive statistics were used to explore the risk factors and multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the factors associated with the acute respiratory infection symptoms and coronavirus testing behaviour after adjusting for gender, age, household size, household income, Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status, SEIFA, Country of birth, number of chronic diseases, wellbeing, psychological distress, and mental health.

Results

We found that 19.3% of respondents reported having symptoms of acute respiratory infection and the most commonly reported symptoms were a runny nose (11.2%), coughing (9.9%) and sore throat (6.2%). Fever and cough were reported by 0.8% of participants. Of the symptomatic respondents, 32.6% reported seeking health advice from a nurse, doctor or healthcare provider. Around 18% (n = 130) of symptomatic respondents had sought testing and a further 4.3% (n = 31) reported they intended to get tested. The regression results suggest that older age, larger household size, a higher number of chronic disease, mental health condition, poor wellbeing, and psychological distress were associated with higher odds of ARI symptoms. Higher household income was associated with lower odds of being tested or intending to be tested for coronavirus after adjusting for other explanatory variables.

Conclusions

There were relatively high rates of self-reported acute respiratory infection during a period of very low COVID-19 prevalence and low rate of coronavirus testing among symptomatic respondents. Ongoing monitoring of testing uptake, including in higher-risk groups, and possible interventions to improve testing uptake is key to early detection of disease.

Investigating the breast cancer screening-treatment-mortality pathway of women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer: Results from linked health data

OBJECTIVE

To examine the screening-treatment-mortality pathway among women with invasive breast cancer in 2006-2014 using linked data.

METHODS

BreastScreen histories of South Australian women diagnosed with breast cancer (n = 8453) were investigated. Treatments recorded within 12 months from diagnosis were obtained from linked registry and administrative data. Associations of screening history with treatment were investigated using logistic regression and with cancer mortality outcomes using competing risk analyses, adjusting for socio-demographic, cancer and comorbidity characteristics.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

For screening ages of 50-69 years, 70% had participated in BreastScreen SA ≤ 5 years and 53% ≤ 2 years of diagnosis. Five-year disease-specific survival post-diagnosis was 90%. Compared with those not screened ≤5 years, women screened ≤2 years had higher odds, adjusted for socio-demographic, cancer and comorbidity characteristics, and diagnostic period, of breast-conserving surgery (aOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.9-3.2) and radiotherapy (aOR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3). These women had a lower unadjusted risk of post-diagnostic cancer mortality (SHR 0.33, 95% CI 0.27-0.41), partly mediated by stage (aSHR 0.65, 95% CI 0.51-0.81), and less breast surgery (aSHR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99). Screening ≤2 years and conserving surgery appeared to have a greater than additive association with lower post-diagnostic mortality (interaction term SHR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23-0.78). The screening-treatment-mortality pathway was investigated using linked data.

Holistic approach supporting mental wellbeing of people in enforced quarantine in South Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

To report the experience of quarantine for international arrivals to South Australia requiring quarantine in a medi-hotel setting during the COVID-19 pandemic and to describe the range of evidence-based support services to mitigate the mental health impacts of quarantine.

METHODS

A range of services targeted at physical and mental wellbeing were provided. Data from 533 adult respondents out of 721 passengers were included. The Kessler 10 was used to measure psychological distress at two time points.

RESULTS

About 7.1% of respondents reported psychological distress at time one, reduced to 2.4% at time two. There was no significant difference in psychological distress by gender at either time point. The mean K10 score at time one was 13.6 (standard deviation=5.2) and the mean score at time two was 11.5 (standard deviation=3.1), with a significant reduction in mean scores (p<0.001) between the two time points.

CONCLUSIONS

The level of psychological stress in repatriated Australians was low at arrival and improved further at the time of release from quarantine. Implications for public health: A collaborative multi-sector approach to provide support services for individuals in quarantine can mitigate risks to mental wellbeing.

Whole-Genome Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from Quarantine Hotel Outbreak

Hotel quarantine for international travelers has been used to prevent coronavirus disease spread into Australia. A quarantine hotel–associated community outbreak was detected in South Australia. Real-time genomic sequencing enabled rapid confirmation tracking the outbreak to a recently returned traveler and linked 2 cases of infection in travelers at the same facility.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma survival in South Australia: time trends and impact of tumour location

BACKGROUND

It is unclear how global developments in management of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have affected survival of Australian patients. This study aimed to determine trends in survival of PDAC over the last three decades in South Australia and to compare survival based on cancer location (head and uncinate process versus body and tail).

METHODS

A retrospective observational cohort study to include all cases of PDAC reported to the South Australian (state) Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2017.

RESULTS

A total of 1051 patients diagnosed with PDAC between 1990 and 2017 were included. An overall increase in number of reported PDAC cases over time with more than a doubling in the crude rate from 1.73 to 3.50 per 100 000 persons between the decades 1990-1999 and 2010-2017 (P < 0.001) was noted. Overall median survival for PDAC was 7.4 months (95% confidence interval 6.8-8.0 months) and this has improved in recent decades. Overall median survival for PDAC affecting head and uncinate process of pancreas was significantly higher compared to body and tail (7.6 months versus 4.1 months; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study from South Australia demonstrates an increased reporting of PDAC over the last three decades. Although overall survival for patients with PDAC remains low, there has been a modest improvement in recent decades. The overall survival is significantly lower for patients with PDAC involving the body and tail compared to the head and uncinate process of pancreas. Risk factors for poor survival include the male gender and advancing age (>70 years).

Female breast cancer treatment and survival in South Australia: Results from linked health data

Objective

We investigated treatment and survival by clinical and sociodemographic characteristics for service evaluation using linked data.

Method

Data on invasive female breast cancers (n = 13,494) from the South Australian Cancer Registry (2000–2014 diagnoses) were linked to hospital inpatient, radiotherapy and universal health insurance data. Treatments ≤12 months from diagnosis and survival were analysed, using adjusted odds ratios (aORs) from logistic regression, and adjusted sub‐hazard ratios (aSHRs) from competing risk regression.

Results and conclusion

Five‐year disease‐specific survival increased to 91% for 2010–2014. Most women had breast surgery (90%), systemic therapy (72%) and radiotherapy (60%). Less treatment applied for ages 80+ vs <50 years (aOR 0.10, 95% CI 0.05–0.20) and TNM stage IV vs stage I (aOR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.22). Surgical treatment increased during the study period and strongly predicted higher survival. Compared with no surgery, aSHRs were 0.31 (95% CI 0.26–0.36) for women having breast‐conserving surgery, 0.49 (95% CI 0.41–0.57) for mastectomy and 0.42 (95% CI 0.33–0.52) when both surgery types were received. Patients aged 80+ years had lower survival and less treatment. More trial evidence is needed to optimise trade‐offs between benefits and harms in these older women. Survival differences were not found by residential remoteness and were marginal by socioeconomic status.

Trends in soft drink and sugar-sweetened beverage consumption among South Australians, focusing on distribution of intake by subpopulation

OBJECTIVE

This study focused on describing local trends in sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption, including variations between subgroups, to inform equitable health policy to curb soft drink consumption.

METHODS

Weighted data were obtained from the South Australian Monitoring and Surveillance System, a state-based population health survey that monitors trends in health risk factors and chronic disease via computer-assisted telephone interviewing. From 2008 onwards, participants provided an estimate of the average amount of soft drink they consumed per day.

RESULTS

From 2008-2017, there were significant decreases in the proportion of adults who consumed any SSBs, but the mean consumption per consumer increased. High-risk dietary and lifestyle behaviours are the strongest predictors for consumption of soft drink, but there is also a significant association with socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Population trends mask increasing inequity. There is a societal trend away from the consumption of SSBs across all subgroups, but at-risk groups who engage in clusters of unhealthy behaviours remain high consumers. Implications for public health: The identification of at-risk populations allows research to focus more precisely on the structural barriers, beliefs, attitudes and facilitators of ongoing consumption of SSB in order to inform future health promotion efforts.

Monitoring TNM stage of female breast cancer and survival across the South Australian population, with national and international TNM benchmarking: A population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Using linked cancer registry and administrative data to monitor, tumour, node and metastases (TNM) stage and survival from female breast cancer in Australia.

METHOD

Analysis of 2000-2014 diagnoses with linked population-based data to investigate: (1) sociodemographic predictors of advanced stage (stages III and IV), using unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression; and (2) sociodemographic factors and stage as predictors of breast cancer survival using competing risk regression.

DESIGN

Population-based registry cohort.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

14 759 South Australian women diagnosed in 2000-2014.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Stage and survival.

RESULTS

At diagnosis, 46% of women were classified as stage I, 39% as stage II, 12% as stage III and 4% as stage IV. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, advanced stage was more common: (1) for ages <50 years; and although not statistically significant, for ages 80+ years; and (2) in women from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Compared with 2000-2004 diagnoses, stage and sociodemographic adjusted risks (sub-HRs (SHRs)) of breast cancer death were lower in 2005-2009 (SHR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and 2010-2015 (SHR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.67). Compared with stage I, the SHR was 3.87 (95% CI 3.32 to 4.53) for stage II, 10.87 (95% CI 9.22 to 12.81) for stage III, and 41.97 (95% CI 34.78 to 50.65) for stage IV. Women aged 70+ years at diagnosis and those living in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas were at elevated risk of breast cancer death, independent of stage and sociodemographic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Stage varied by age, diagnostic period and socioeconomic status, and was a stronger predictor of survival than other statistically significant sociodemographic predictors. Achieving earlier diagnosis outside the original BreastScreen target of 50-69 years (as applying <2014) and in residents of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas likely would increase cancer survival at a population level.

Colorectal cancer screening using faecal occult blood tests for Indigenous adults: A systematic literature review of barriers, enablers and implemented strategies

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening using a Faecal Occult Blood Test (FOBT) is a well-established population intervention to reduce mortality and morbidity of CRC. As Indigenous people are not fully benefiting from the screening programs, a greater understanding of barriers and enablers affecting participation is needed.

METHODS

Searches were carried out in PubMed, Embase, Sociological Abstracts, Scopus, CINAHL, and selected websites. Both qualitative and quantitative studies related to Indigenous populations of Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United States of America were assessed for quality and data related to FOBT were extracted and synthetised.

RESULTS

A total of 375 publications were identified and screened against the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Thirty-four studies were included in the review. The barriers for participation in CRC screening included the lack of culturally competent health service access, particularly access to Indigenous health service providers. Medical discrimination, long-standing distrust in Western medicine and/or health staff and screening tests were all identified as barriers for Indigenous people. There were a small number of promising interventions to improve participation, which could be considered on a broader scale to increase overall participation by Indigenous people in CRC screening.

CONCLUSIONS

The review identified barriers and possible enablers for Indigenous participation in the CRC screening program, some which appear to be unique to Indigenous people. Further intervention studies conducted in partnership with Indigenous communities are needed to improve participation.

How effective are family-based and institutional nutrition interventions in improving children's diet and health? A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Effective strategies to improve dietary intake in young children are a priority to reduce the high prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases in adulthood. This study aimed to assess the impact of family-based and school/preschool nutrition programs on the health of children aged 12 or younger, including the sustainability of these impacts and the relevance to socio-economic inequalities.

METHODS

A systematic review of literature published from 1980 to December 2014 was undertaken. Randomised controlled trials involving families with children aged up to 12 years in high income countries were included. The primary outcomes were dietary intake and health status. Results were presented in a narrative synthesis due to the heterogeneity of the interventions and outcomes.

RESULTS

The systematic search and assessment identified 39 eligible studies. 82% of these studies were set in school/preschools. Only one school study assessed the impact of involving parents systematically. The family-based programs which provided simple positive dietary advice to parents and regular follow-up reduced fat intake significantly. School and family-based studies, if designed and implemented well, increased F&V intake, particularly fruit. Effective school-based programs have incorporated role-models including peers, teachers and heroic figures, rewards and increased access to healthy foods. School nutrition programs in disadvantaged communities were as effective as programs in other communities.

CONCLUSIONS

Family and school nutrition programs can improve dietary intake, however evidence of the long-term sustainability of these impacts is limited. The modest overall impact of even these successful programs suggest complementary nutrition interventions are needed to build a supportive environment for healthy eating generally.

Mandatory desexing of dogs: one step in the right direction to reduce the risk of dog bite? A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Preventing dog bites is an intractable problem given the complex dog bite injury environment. Desexing of dogs has the opportunity of creating a safer injury environment, given the potential links between desexing and behaviour change in dogs.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was conducted to examine the evidence for desexing of dogs to reduce dog bite risk within a population health paradigm. Medline and CAB Abstracts were searched for studies that reported data on the association of dog neuter status with the risk of dog bite. All definitions of dog bite were included and all empirical studies were included in the review, limited to those published in English. Quality appraisal and data extraction were based on the 2013 evidence-based practice and critical appraisal tool from the University of Auckland.

RESULTS

Five out of six observational studies, from four study populations found evidence that intact dogs were associated with an increased risk of dog bite compared with desexed dogs. The effect sizes ranged across the studies and given the heterogeneity of the studies no single effect size on the association between desexing and dog bite risk could be estimated.

CONCLUSIONS

There is consistent evidence that desexing dogs is associated with a reduced risk of dog bite, although the studies reflect association and may not be causal. Although recent publications have suggested desexing is associated with health and behavioural costs in some breeds, population level evidence supports desexed dogs having a longer lifespan, and being less likely to wander with the added benefit of reducing unwanted litters. Thus, mandatory desexing presents a possible opportunity for prevention of dog bites expanding dog bite prevention beyond an education-only approach.

Characteristics of Indigenous adults with poorly controlled diabetes in north Queensland: implications for services

Background

Indigenous Australian adults with diabetes continue to have suboptimal clinical control and poorer outcomes compared with non-Indigenous people although there is a paucity of data documenting the detailed health status of Indigenous people in Australia. To further investigate the characteristics of Indigenous Australian adults with poorly controlled diabetes we analysed baseline data from a cluster randomized trial aiming to deliver a program of integrated community-based intensive chronic disease management for Indigenous people in remote communities in far north Queensland, Australia.

Methods

Indigenous adults aged 18 to 65 years from 12 clinics in rural north Queensland with established type 2 diabetes and with HbA1c ≥8.5% were invited to participate. The primary outcome variable measured at baseline was HbA1c. Other variables measured included socio-demographic indicators, health literacy, BMI, blood pressure, lipids, renal function, smoking status and quality of life measures. Data were collected between December 2010 and July 2011. Analysis was performed by ethnicity – Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander.

Results

One hundred and ninety three participants were included in the analysis. Very high rates of albuminuria, high rates of smoking, dyslipidaemia, hypertension and elevated BMI were recorded. Aboriginal participants reported higher levels of socio-economic disadvantage, higher smoking rates, lower BMI and worse self-reported health status than Torres Strait Islander participants.

Conclusion

These results demonstrate a high potential for improved culturally sound community-based management of diabetes and other comorbid conditions in this very high risk population. They also provide further evidence for including albuminuria in cardiovascular risk calculation.

Benefits of modest weight or waist circumference loss in a remote North Queensland Indigenous population

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the potential benefit to individuals of differing magnitudes of weight or waist circumference loss in an Indigenous population.

METHOD

Data were from the Well Person's Health Check, a cohort study in 19 rural Indigenous communities in Far North Queensland. Baseline data were collected between 1998 and 2000 from 2,583 people aged 15 to 75, an estimated participation rate of 44.5%. Follow-up data were collected between 2004 and 2007 from 729 participants. Associations between change in weight and waist circumference for those who were overweight or obese (n=486) with changes in serum lipids, fasting glucose, blood pressure and Gamma-Glutamyltransferase (GGT) were estimated using linear regression.

RESULTS

Weight or waist circumference loss was associated in a dose response fashion with blood pressure reduction (e.g. 10% or greater weight loss compared with no weight loss was associated with reduction of 11.3 mmHg systolic (95% confidence interval -17.8, -4.8). Those with greater waist circumference loss had a greater reduction in GGT (-8.3, 95% confidence interval -23.5, 6.8) but there was no apparent increase in GGT reduction with increasing weight loss, although these were measured with low precision. There was no apparent effect of either weight or waist circumference loss on serum lipids and fasting glucose in this population.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows potentially large beneficial effects of weight or waist circumference loss over several years in a remote living Indigenous cohort. The associations were large enough to be of clinical benefit, despite weight loss being modest for most.

Who uses complementary and alternative therapies in regional South Australia? Evidence from the Whyalla Intergenerational Study of Health

OBJECTIVE

o assess the prevalence of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) and service use for people with a chronic disease in rural and regional Australia, where reported prevalence of CAM use is higher.

METHODS

ata were from the Whyalla Intergenerational Study of Health, a population representative cross sectional study of 1146 people recruited in 2008-2009. Self-reported chronic disease diagnosis and health service use including CAM use were collected. Complementary and other medicines were recorded at a clinic visit in a reduced sample (n=722) and SF36 data were collected by questionnaire.

RESULTS

round 32% of respondents reported complementary medicine use and 27% CAM service use. There was no difference in the overall prevalence of CAM use among those with and without a chronic disease (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.7-1.3). Greater age- and sex-adjusted use of complementary medicines was associated with the ability to save money (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.17-2.63), but not with any other socioeconomic position indicator. Those who reported using prescribed medication were more likely to report using complementary medicines (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.35-3.24).

CONCLUSIONS

he prevalence of CAM use in this regional community appeared lower than reported in similar communities outside of South Australia. Mainstream medicine use was associated with complementary medicine use, increasing the risk of an adverse drug interaction. This suggests that doctors and pharmacists should be aware of the possibility that their clients may be using complementary medicines, and the need for vigilance regarding potential side effects and interactions between complementary and mainstream therapies.

What is the 'real' admission rate of acute pancreatitis in a regional Australian population?

OBJECTIVE

Capture-recapture analysis was used to more accurately quantify the admission rate for acute pancreatitis in a regional hospital setting, in comparison to the usual method of case ascertainment. Reasons for differences in capture for the various methods were also sought.

METHODS

Admissions for acute pancreatitis were enumerated over a 40-month period using three data sources: hospital classification of admission diagnoses, prospective case identification, and receipt of diagnosis-specific pathology specimens. Capture-recapture analysis was applied with log-linear modelling to account for likely dependency between data sources. Covariates were noted to explain capture probability by the various data sources and for eventual stratification in the analysis process.

RESULTS

For the census period, there were 304 admissions after merging of data sources, giving a crude admission rate of 7.6 per month. Crude ascertainment rates for discharge records and prospective identification were 44% and 52% respectively. Following log-linear modelling, total admissions more than doubled to 644 (adjusted admission rate 16.1 per month). Of the covariates considered, admissions of less than three days' duration and those occurring in December and January were significantly associated with increased capture by the hospital discharge records data source.

CONCLUSIONS

In this clinical setting, admissions for acute pancreatitis are grossly underestimated by the standard case ascertainment method. The reasons for this are not clear. Hospital discharge records are nevertheless more effective than prospective case ascertainment for certain cases, such as brief admissions and those in holiday periods. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC? Capture-recapture analysis was originally developed in animal ecology, but has since been used to estimate both prevalent and incident cases of human disease. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD? This study exposes possible deficiencies in the single-source case ascertainment methods used by most hospitals to enumerate incident cases. It is the first time that capture-recapture techniques have been used to estimate acute pancreatitis admissions. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS? To obtain accurate admissions estimates for diseases such as acute pancreatitis, capture-recapture analysis with multiple data sources is advisable. One possible solution may be to conduct intermittent prospective censuses to complement existing retrospective ascertainment methods. On a more general level, clinical staff should be better trained to provide more accurate and detailed information in case records.

Have purpose-built vaccine refrigerators reduced the cost of vaccine losses in South Australia?

OBJECTIVES

There is limited epidemiological data on the performance of different refrigerator types for vaccine storage in the real world. This study aims to measure if the introduction of purpose-built vaccine refrigerators has reduced the cost of vaccine losses in South Australia.

METHODS

Data were taken from a register for all recorded vaccine storage cold chain events in South Australia from 2008 to 2009 and a survey of vaccine providers conducted in 2009.

RESULTS

There were 531 respondents to the survey (51% response rate). A greater proportion of cold chain breaches in purpose-built vaccine refrigerators did not lead to a loss of vaccine (10.3%) compared with the other refrigerator types. Purpose-built vaccine refrigerators had a relative risk of 3.31 (95% CI, 2.15-5.11) of a heat event (as opposed to cold event) and were more likely to have a cold chain breach from electrical failure (relative risk ratio 15.05, 95% CI 4.04-56.05) than bar refrigerators. The average cost of loss of vaccine for purpose-built vaccine refrigerators was $2,321.20, which was greater than the cost of vaccine loss from a bar refrigerator of $1,339.06 (95% CI $61.47-1,902.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Although purpose-built vaccine refrigerators were less likely to lead to vaccine loss per cold chain breach, they had a greater average cost of vaccine loss per cold chain event because they held a greater volume of vaccine. There is a need for development of Standards to guide purpose-built vaccine refrigerators manufacturing and a review of the National Vaccine Storage Guidelines to place a greater emphasis on the need for back up plans in the event of electrical failure.

Pragmatic randomised trial of a 12-week exercise and nutrition program for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women: clinical results immediate post and 3 months follow-up

Background

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women experience higher rates of heart disease and type 2 diabetes than non-Indigenous Australian women. Increasing physical activity, improving diets and losing weight have been shown to reduce cardio metabolic risk. The primary aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of a 12-week structured exercise and nutrition program in a cohort of urban Indigenous Australian women on waist circumference, weight and biomedical markers of metabolic functioning from baseline (T1) to program completion (T2). The secondary aim assessed whether these outcomes were maintained at 3-month follow-up.

Methods

One hundred Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women aged 18–64 years living in the Adelaide metropolitan area were recruited. The program included two 60-minute group cardiovascular and resistance training classes per week, and four nutrition education workshops. Participants were randomly assigned to an ‘active’ group or ‘waitlisted’ control group. Body weight, height, waist and hip circumference, blood pressure, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1C), lipid profile and C-reactive protein (CRP) were assessed at baseline (T1), immediately after the program (T2) and three months post program (T3).

Results

The active group showed modest reductions in weight and body mass index (BMI). Compared to the waitlisted group, the active group had a statistically significantly change in weight and BMI from baseline assessments; at T2, ^-1.65 kg and ^-0.66 kg/m² and at T3, ^-2.50 kg and ^-1.03 kg/m², respectively. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure also had a statistically significant difference from baseline in the active group compared to the waitlisted group at T2, ^-1.24 mmHg and ^-2.46 mmHg and at T3, ^-4.09 mmHg and ^-2.17 mmHg, respectively. The findings were independent of the baseline measure of the outcome variable, age, households with children and employment status. Changes in waist circumference and other clinical measures were not significant at T2 or T3. The primary outcome measure, waist circumference, proved problematic to assess reliably. Missing data and participants lost to follow-up were significant.

Conclusions

This 12-week exercise program demonstrated modest reductions in weight, BMI and blood pressure at T2, which improved further at 3-month follow-up (T3). Positive intervention effects were observed despite low attendance at exercise classes. Structured exercise programs implemented in community settings require attention to understanding the barriers to participation for this high risk group.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12610000224022

Does an early childhood intervention affect cardiometabolic risk in adulthood? Evidence from a longitudinal study of preschool attendance in South Australia

OBJECTIVES

There is an expectation that a positive social, cognitive and behavioural trajectory from early childhood developmental interventions will lead to improved population health and reduced health inequalities. However, there is limited direct evidence for this. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of participation in the South Australian Kindergarten Union preschool programme on adult cardiovascular biomedical risk factors. Kindergarten Union preschools delivered high-quality, comprehensive services to children aged 2-4 years and their families, including education, parenting and health services.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective population-based cohort study.

METHODS

The effect of attendance at a Kindergarten Union preschool on a range of cardiometabolic risk factors was assessed using data from the North West Adelaide Health Study 1999-2007. The study sample was taken from participants in the 2007 survey (n = 1064, 44.8% attended preschool) who lived in South Australia as children and were born during the years 1937-1969.

RESULTS

Preschool attendance had a beneficial effect on hypertension in adulthood [prevalence ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-0.97] and an indication of benefit on hypercholesterolaemia (prevalence ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.71-1.05), but had no effect on dyslipidaemia, central obesity, high fasting blood glucose or metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that preschool attendance was associated with reduced risk of hypertension in adulthood, but no effect was seen for the other cardiometabolic factors. These findings may reflect differing causal pathways and trajectories of these risk factors from childhood to adulthood, but confirmation from other studies is required.

Pneumococcal disease in South Australia: vaccine success but no time for complacency

BACKGROUND

Trends in age specific and serotype specific incidence rates for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) were examined in South Australia 4 years before and 5 years after the commencement of the Australian universal childhood 7 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV) program.

METHODS

IPD cases were identified by routine enhanced surveillance. IPD serotypes were grouped according to those covered by the 7vPCV, the six serotypes specific to the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (13vPCV), the 11 serotypes specific to the 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPV), as well as non-13vPCV and non-23vPPV groups. Poisson regression was used to calculate age-specific and serotype-specific incident rate ratios (IRRs) comparing pre (2002-2004) and post (2007-2009) universal childhood 7vPCV periods.

RESULTS

Following the introduction of the 7vPCV program, the rate of IPD in children aged <2 years decreased by 81% for all serotypes (IRR 0.19, 95% CI, 0.13-0.28) and by 98% for 7vPCV serotypes (IRR 0.02, 95% CI, 0.007-0.07). At the same time, there was some evidence for an increase in IPD caused by 13vPCV specific serotypes (IRR 1.58, 95% CI, 0.78-3.21) and non-13vPCV serotypes (IRR 1.80, 95% CI, 0.45-7.21). Among adults aged ≥65 years, overall there was a 27% reduction in IPD caused by all serotypes following introduction of the 7vPCV program (IRR 0.73, 95% CI, 0.58-0.93). However, the rate of IPD increased in the last 2 years of the study period. The initial decrease was a result of a 74% reduction in the rate of IPD due to 7vPCV serotypes (IRR 0.26, 95% CI, 0.17-0.40). At the same time, the rate of IPD increased for 13vPCV specific serotypes (IRR 1.55, 95% CI, 0.94-2.54), 23vPPV specific serotypes (IRR 1.91, 95% CI, 0.99-3.71) and particularly non-23vPPV serotypes (IRR 5.3, 95% CI, 1.83-15.34).

CONCLUSION

There has been a large direct and sustained benefit from the universal 7vPCV program in children, particularly those aged <2 years, with some evidence for serotype replacement. There is also good evidence that the childhood program has provided indirect benefits to adults aged ≥65 years, although serotype replacement has reduced the initial benefits.

Lack of folate improvement in high risk indigenous Australian adults over an average of 6.5 years: a cohort study

Socioeconomically vulnerable groups in developed countries suffer excess chronic disease due in large part to an energy dense but nutrient poor diet. Low folate can be a marker of poor dietary quality and is also affected by smoking and chronic alcohol intake, all of which cluster in groups with a low socioeconomic position. A 4.5 to 9 year follow-up study of 567 indigenous adults from remote communities in far north Queensland, Australia, from 1998 to 2007 was conducted. Analysis of the effects of demographic factors, smoking, risky alcohol drinking, fruit and vegetable intake and waist circumference on changes in red cell folate (RCF) status was conducted. Prevalence of low red cell folate doubled in the cohort from a high baseline over this seven year period: 36.9% deficient in 2007, 15.9% at baseline (p<0.001). Smoking was associated with lower folate levels. People with a normal RCF were less likely to be smokers, and were more likely to have a greater number of serves of vegetables (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.10) than those who were deficient at follow-up. The introduction of voluntary folate fortification since 1995 does not appear to have impacted on the already poor folate status of this cohort of adults. The increased prevalence of low folate has occurred despite improvements in the food supply, indicating the need for nutrition promotion, and subsidies for healthy food in remote communities. The impact of mandatory folate fortification of flour since 2009 should be assessed in this high risk population.

The beneficial effects of preschool attendance on adult cardiovascular disease risk

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of South Australian Kindergarten Union participation on adult cardiovascular behavioural risk factors.

METHODS

Using a retrospective cohort design, this study examined the effect of attendance at a Kindergarten Union preschool from 1940 to 1972 on behavioural risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adults 34-67 years. Dichotomous outcomes were analysed using a generalised linear model (Poisson distribution) with robust variance estimates. Outcomes with more than two categories were analysed with a multinomial logistic model.

RESULTS

There was a beneficial effect of preschool on high physical activity relative to sedentary and on ever smoking, but a negative effect on fruit consumption. Preschool attendance was not associated with alcohol risk or vegetable consumption under traditional criteria, however the point estimate for vegetable consumption was in the beneficial direction. The point estimates from the multinomial model suggested a step-wise decreasing risk for preschool attendees to have less risk of experiencing multiple behavioural risk factors (e.g. risk of five risk factors for preschool participants compared with non-participants).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Attendance at a Kindergarten Union preschool was associated with a reduced risk of two and an indication of benefit in a third behavioural risk factor in adulthood. This study provides some evidence for the potential health benefit of interventions outside of the health sector to prevent cardiovascular diseases, which are strongly associated with lifelong social disadvantage.

Can attending preschool reduce the risk of tobacco smoking in adulthood? The effects of Kindergarten Union participation in South Australia

BACKGROUND

Innovative strategies beyond the health system are required to reduce the prevalence of smoking. Early child development interventions are examples of interventions that can help set children on positive social and educational trajectories, which in turn may also reduce the prevalence of smoking. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of attendance at Kindergarten Union preschools on tobacco smoking in adulthood.

METHODS

Kindergarten Union preschools delivered comprehensive services to children and their families, including education, parenting and health services, with a number of features consistent with contemporary ideas of high-quality service delivery. Using a retrospective cohort design with data from the North West Adelaide Health Study, this study examined different aspects of smoking behaviour in adults aged 34-67 years who attended a Kindergarten Union preschool at some stage between 1940 and 1972. Data were analysed using generalised linear model poisson regression with robust variance estimates, adjusting for both child and adult socio-economic factors and history of parental smoking.

RESULTS

People who attended preschool had a reduced risk of ever smoking (prevalence ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98) and a reduced risk of current smoking in adulthood (prevalence ratio 0.77 (95% CI 0.59 to 1.00)), compared with those who did not attend preschool. There was no effect of preschool attendance on age at smoking uptake, age at quitting or the probability of quitting smoking.

CONCLUSION

Attendance at the high-quality Kindergarten Union preschools was associated with a reduction in the initial uptake of smoking and thus the probability of being a current smoker. Among their other potential social benefits, high-quality, universal preschool programmes have the potential to help reduce smoking prevalence across the population.

Can preschool improve child health outcomes? A systematic review

Early childhood development interventions (ECDIs) have the potential to bring about wide ranging human capital benefits for children through to adulthood. Less is known, however, about the potential for such interventions to improve population health. The aim of this study was to examine the evidence for child health effects of centre-based preschool intervention programs for healthy 4 year olds, beyond the preschool years. Medline, Embase, ERIC, Psych Info, Sociological Abstracts, the Cochrane Library, C2-SPECTR and the Head Start database were searched using terms relating to preschool and health from 1980 to July 2008, limited to English language publications. Reference lists and the journal Child Development were hand searched for eligible articles missed by the electronic search. There were 37 eligible studies identified. The reviewed studies examined a range of interventions from centre-based preschool alone, to interventions also including parenting programs and/or health services. The study populations were mostly sampled from populations at risk of school failure (76%). Only eight of the 37 studies had a strong methodological rating, 15 were evaluated as at moderate potential risk of bias and 14 as at high potential risk of bias. The review found generally null effects of preschool interventions across a range of health outcomes, however there was some evidence for obesity reduction, greater social competence, improved mental health and crime prevention. We conclude that the great potential for early childhood interventions to improve population health across a range of health outcomes, as anticipated by policy makers worldwide, currently rests on a rather flimsy evidence base. Given the potential and the increasingly large public investment in these interventions, it is imperative that population health researchers, practitioners and policy makers worldwide collaborate to advance this research agenda.

The Importance of Numbers: Using Capture-recapture to make the Homeless Count in Adelaide

An important problem for the homeless service sector is understanding the size of homeless populations, which has implications on planning services and social policy. The aim of this study is to apply capture-recapture methods to count the primary homeless population in the Adelaide city council area, to examine the use of an alternative method to the Australian Bureau of Statistics census. Capture-recapture techniques were used to analyse homeless registers from three different services to estimate the number of primary homeless people in the Adelaide city council area from 19 June to 19 September 2005. Log-linear model and the sample coverage method were employed to analyse the data. The log-linear model results gave a population estimate of 455 (95% confidence interval 299, 762), and the sample coverage method of 311 (95% confidence interval 229, 466), compared with 104 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics census. Multiple sources of information utilising different methodologies should be considered together when attempting to plan services for primary homeless people, as all available techniques have important limitations. Capture-recapture is an important method to supplement any attempt at enumeration of hidden, mobile or difficult-to-reach populations.

Recurrent gonorrhoea in South Australia, 1987-2003

In Australia, it is unclear if individuals are being recurrently infected with gonorrhoea, a proxy for identifying core groups. We reviewed all notified gonococcal (GC) infections in South Australia between 1987 and 2003. A case of repeated GC infection is one in which at least one further episode of GC infection occurred after 30 days and within 365 days of the first infection. There were 253 recurrent infections (7.26%) from 238 individuals. Men who have sex with men (MSM) and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI) were significantly more likely to be recurrently infected with gonorrhoea than the rest of the South Australian population. This method of identifying individuals who have recurrent gonococcal infections can be used to target more frequent screening for individuals in a population who are more likely to be a part of the core group.