Designing, development and validation of an app to reduce the response time of the emergency medical services

INTRODUCTION

Delays in prehospital care attributable to the call-taking process can often be traced back to miscommunication, including uncertainty around the call location. Geolocation applications have the potential to streamline the call-taking process by accurately identifying the caller's location.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate an application to geolocate emergency calls and compare the response time of calls made via the application with those of conventional calls made to the Brazilian Medical Emergency System (Serviço de Atendimento Médico de Urgência-SAMU).

METHODS

This study was conducted in two stages. First, a geolocating application for SAMU emergency calls (CHAMU192) was developed using a mixed methods approach based on design thinking and subsequently validated using the System Usability Scale (SUS). In the second stage, sending time of the geolocation information of the app was compared with the time taken to process information through conventional calls. For this, a hypothetical case control study was conducted with SAMU in the Maringá, Paraná, Brazil. A control group of 350 audio recordings of emergency calls from 2019 was compared to a set of test calls made through the CHAMU192 app. The CHAMU192 group consisted of 201 test calls in Maringá. In test calls, the location was obtained by GPS and sent to the SAMU communication system. Comparative analysis between groups was performed using the Mann-Whitney test.

RESULTS

CHAMU192 had a SUS score of 90, corresponding to a "best imaginable" usability rating. The control group had a median response time of 35.67 seconds (26.00-48.12). The response time of the CHAMU192 group was 0.20 (0.15-0.24).

CONCLUSION

The use of the CHAMU192 app by emergency medical services could significantly reduce response time. The results demonstrate the potential of app improving the quality and patient outcomes related to the prehospital emergency care services.

Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers

Smoking cessation is an important public health policy worldwide. However, as far as we know, there is a lack of screening of variables related to the success of therapeutic intervention (STI) in Brazilian smokers by machine learning (ML) algorithms. To address this gap in the literature, we evaluated the ability of eight ML algorithms to correctly predict the STI in Brazilian smokers who were treated at a smoking cessation program in Brazil between 2006 and 2017. The dataset was composed of 12 variables and the efficacies of the algorithms were measured by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We plotted a decision tree flowchart and also measured the odds ratio (OR) between each independent variable and the outcome, and the importance of the variable for the best model based on PPV. The mean global values for the metrics described above were, respectively, 0.675±0.028, 0.803±0.078, 0.485±0.146, 0.705±0.035 and 0.680±0.033. Supporting vector machines performed the best algorithm with a PPV of 0.726±0.031. Smoking cessation drug use was the roof of decision tree with OR of 4.42 and importance of variable of 100.00. Increase in the number of relapses also promoted a positive outcome, while higher consumption of cigarettes resulted in the opposite. In summary, the best model predicted 72.6% of positive outcomes correctly. Smoking cessation drug use and higher number of relapses contributed to quit smoking, while higher consumption of cigarettes showed the opposite effect. There are important strategies to reduce the number of smokers and increase STI by increasing services and drug treatment for smokers.

Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular Diseases Sensitive to Primary Health Care in Paraná State, Brazil: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Model

PURPOSE

To analyze spatiotemporal trends in hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) sensitive to primary health care (PHC) among individuals aged 50-69 years in Paraná State, Brazil, from 2014 to 2019 and investigate correlations between PHC services and the Social Development Index.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study using publicly available secondary data to analyze the municipal incidence of hospitalizations for CVD sensitive to PHC and to estimate the risk of hospitalization for this group of diseases and associated factors using hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.

RESULTS

There was a 5% decrease in the average rate of hospitalizations for PHC-sensitive CVD from 2014 to 2019. Regarding standardized hospitalization rate (SHR) according to population size, we found that no large municipality had an SHR >2. Likewise, a minority of these municipalities had SHR values of 1-2 (33%). However, many small and medium-sized municipalities had SHR values >2 (47% and 48%, respectively). A greater Social Development Index value served as a protective factor against hospitalizations, with a relative risk of 0.957 (95% credible interval, 0.929-0.984).

CONCLUSIONS

The annual risk of hospitalization decreased over time; however, small municipalities had the greatest rates of hospitalization, indicating an increase in health inequity. The inverse association between social development and hospitalizations for CVD sensitive to PHC raises questions about intersectionality in health care.

Mortality in Women with Coronary Artery Disease in Paraná State, Brazil: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis

Background

Mortality resulting from coronary artery disease (CAD) among women is a complex issue influenced by many factors that encompass not only biological distinctions but also sociocultural, economic, and healthcare-related components. Understanding these factors is crucial to enhance healthcare provisions. Therefore, this study seeks to identify the social and clinical variables related to the risk of mortality caused by CAD in women aged 50 to 79 years old in Paraná state, Brazil, between 2010 and 2019.

Methods

This is an ecological study based on secondary data sourced from E-Gestor, IPARDES, and DATASUS. We developed a model that integrates both raw and standardized coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality rates, along with sociodemographic and healthcare service variables. We employed Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to assess the relative risk of CAD mortality, focusing specifically on women across the state of Paraná.

Results

A total of 14,603 deaths from CAD occurred between 2010 and 2019. Overall, temporal analysis indicates that the risk of CAD mortality decreased by around 22.6% between 2010 (RR of 1.06) and 2019 (RR of 0.82). This decline was most prominent after 2014. The exercise stress testing rate, accessibility of cardiology centers, and IPARDES municipal performance index contributed to the reduction of CAD mortality by approximately 4%, 8%, and 34%, respectively. However, locally, regions in the Central-West, Central-South, Central-East, and Southern regions of the Central-North parts of the state exhibited risks higher-than-expected.

Conclusion

In the last decade, CAD-related deaths among women in Paraná state decreased. This was influenced by more exercise stress testing, better access to cardiology centers, improved municipal performance index. Yet, elevated risks of deaths persist in certain regions due to medical disparities and varying municipal development. Therefore, prioritizing strategies to enhance women's access to cardiovascular healthcare in less developed regions is crucial.

Correction: Applicability of machine learning technique in the screening of patients with mild traumatic brain injury

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290721.].

Development of a mobile application for emergency shift handovers using the National Early Warning Score

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a prototype of a mobile application shift handover between nurses in the emergency room using a severity scale.

METHOD

This is a technological tool carried out at the Universidade Estadual de Maringá using design thinking, divided into four phases: discovering, defining, developing, and delivering. To structure the information, a checklist was used based on the Situation Background Assessment Recommendation, and to categorize patients in terms of severity, the National Early Warning Score was used. The validation of the sample was carried out by 10 nurses, specialized in the field of urgency and emergency, using the System Usability Scale questionnaire to assess usability. The content validity coefficient was used for analysis.

RESULTS

The application scored 75.75 in usability and had a content validity coefficient of 0.8.

CONCLUSION

The prototype obtained an excellent evaluation of usability and agreement between evaluators. Future studies are needed for implementation in practice, evaluating the practicality, applicability, efficiency and time savings in shift information transfer.

Built environment influence on the incidence of elderly pedestrian collisions in a medium-large city in southern Brazil: a spatial analysis

Trauma disproportionately affects vulnerable road users, especially the elderly. We analyzed the spatial distribution of elderly pedestrians struck by vehicles in the urban area of Maringa city, from 2014 to 2018. Hotspots were obtained by kernel density estimation and wavelet analysis. The relationship between spatial relative risks (RR) of elderly run-overs and the built environment was assessed through Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). Incidents were more frequent in the central and southeast regions of the city, where the RR was up to 2.58 times higher. The QCA test found a significant association between elderly pedestrian victims and the presence of traffic lights, medical centers/hospitals, roundabouts and schools. There is an association between higher risk of elderly pedestrians collisions and specific elements of built environments in Maringa, providing fundamental data to help guide public policies to improve urban mobility aimed at protecting vulnerable road users and planning an age-friendly city.

Applicability of machine learning technique in the screening of patients with mild traumatic brain injury

Even though the demand of head computed tomography (CT) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) has progressively increased worldwide, only a small number of individuals have intracranial lesions that require neurosurgical intervention. As such, this study aims to evaluate the applicability of a machine learning (ML) technique in the screening of patients with mild TBI in the Regional University Hospital of Maringá, Paraná state, Brazil. This is an observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, and retrospective study using ML technique to develop a protocol that predicts which patients with an initial diagnosis of mild TBI should be recommended for a head CT. Among the tested models, he linear extreme gradient boosting was the best algorithm, with the highest sensitivity (0.70 ± 0.06). Our predictive model can assist in the screening of mild TBI patients, assisting health professionals to manage the resource utilization, and improve the quality and safety of patient care.

Spatial distribution of mortality from colorectal cancer in the southern region of Brazil

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the leading cause of death due to cancer worldwide. In Brazil, it is the second most frequent cancer in men and women, with a mortality reaching 9.4% of those diagnosed. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of CRC deaths among municipalities in south Brazil, from 2015 to 2019, in different age groups (50-59 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and 80 years old or more) and identify the associated variables. Global Spatial Autocorrelation (Moran's I) and Local Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) analyses were used to evaluate the spatial correlation between municipalities and CRC mortality. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were applied to evaluate global and local correlations between CRC deaths, sociodemographic, and coverage of health care services. For all age groups, our results found areas with high CRC rates surrounded by areas with similarly high rates mainly in the Rio Grande do Sul state. Even as factors associated with CRC mortality varied according to age group, our results suggested that improved access to specialized health centers, the presence of family health strategy teams, and higher rates of colonoscopies are protective factors against colorectal cancer mortality in southern Brazil.

Exploring regional disparities in lung cancer mortality in a Brazilian state: A cross-sectional ecological study

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer (LC) is one of the main causes of mortality in Brazil; geographic, cultural, socioeconomic and health access factors can affect the development of the disease. We explored the geospatial distribution of LC mortality, and associated factors, between 2015 and 2019, in Parana state, Brazil.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We obtained mortality (from the Brazilian Health Informatics Department) and population rates (from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics [IBGE]) in people over 40 years old, accessibility of oncology centers by municipality, disease diagnosis rate (from Brazilian Ministry of Health), the tobacco production rate (IBGE) and Parana Municipal Performance Index (IPDM) (from Parana Institute for Economic and Social Development). Global Moran's Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association were performed to evaluate the spatial distribution of LC mortality in Parana state. Ordinary Least Squares Regression and Geographically Weighted Regression were used to verify spatial association between LC mortality and socioeconomic indicators and health service coverage. A strong spatial autocorrelation of LC mortality was observed, with the detection of a large cluster of high LC mortality in the South of Parana state. Spatial regression analysis showed that all independent variables analyzed were directly related to LC mortality by municipality in Paraná.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a disparity in the LC mortality in Parana state, and inequality of socioeconomic and accessibility to health care services could be associated with it. Our findings may help health managers to intensify actions in regions with vulnerability in the detection and treatment of LC.

Antivenom access impacts severity of Brazilian snakebite envenoming: A geographic information system analysis

BACKGROUND

Snakebite envenoming (SBE) is a neglected tropical disease capable of causing both significant disability and death. The burden of SBE is especially high in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to perform a geospatial analysis evaluating the association of sociodemographics and access to care indicators on moderate and severe cases of SBE in Brazil.

METHODS

We conducted an ecological, cross-sectional study of SBE in Brazil from 2014 to 2019 using the open access National System Identification of Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) database. We then collected a set of indicators from the Brazil Census of 2010 and performed a Principal Component Analysis to create variables related to health, economics, occupation, education, infrastructure, and access to care. Next, a descriptive and exploratory spatial analysis was conducted to evaluate the geospatial association of moderate and severe events. These variables related to events were evaluated using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression. T-values were plotted in choropleth maps and considered statistically significant when values were <-1.96 or >+1.96.

RESULTS

We found that the North region had the highest number of SBE cases by population (47.83/100,000), death rates (0.18/100,000), moderate and severe rates (22.96/100,000), and proportion of cases that took more than three hours to reach healthcare assistance (44.11%). The Northeast and Midwest had the next poorest indicators. Life expectancy, young population structure, inequality, electricity, occupation, and more than three hours to reach healthcare were positively associated with greater cases of moderate and severe events, while income, illiteracy, sanitation, and access to care were negatively associated. The remaining indicators showed a positive association in some areas of the country and a negative association in other areas.

CONCLUSION

Regional disparities in SBE incidence and rates of poor outcomes exist in Brazil, with the North region disproportionately affected. Multiple indicators were associated with rates of moderate and severe events, such as sociodemographic and health care indicators. Any approach to improving snakebite care must work to ensure the timeliness of antivenom administration.

UTILIZAÇÃO DA GROUNDED THEORY NA EXTRAÇÃO, CODIFICAÇÃO E ANÁLISE DE DADOS EM METASSÍNTESES DE LITERATURA

RESUMO Objetivo: descrever a condução de extração, análise e codificação de dados utilizando a Grounded Theory, na perspectiva Straussiana, em Metassínteses de literatura. Método: trata-se de um ensaio teórico-reflexivo sobre a condução da extração de dados de revisões com metassíntese. Para delineamento do processo de busca dos estudos qualitativos, este ensaio aborda, de forma sucinta, as etapas sequenciais do Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses e da Joanna Briggs Institute. O processo de extração, análise e codificação foi realizado seguindo os pressupostos da Grounded Theory, com a perspectiva Straussiana. São as bases teórico-metodológicas nas primeiras etapas das diretrizes dos guias de revisão de literatura e Metassíntese, iniciando com a pergunta de pesquisa até chegar às etapas da revisão, divididas em identificação, seleção, elegibilidade e inclusão. Resultados: nos resultados são descritos o processo de extração, análise e codificação de dados na perspectiva Straussiana, com uso de análise comparativa dos dados, memorandos, diagramas e possibilidades de novos grupos amostrais a partir da leitura analítica minuciosa dos estudos inclusos. Por fim, é realizada a saturação teórica, com síntese dos achados, com exemplos de categorias e subcategorias, emersão do fenômeno central e apresentação da modelo paradigmático. Conclusão: o ensaio apresenta subsídios para a compreensão da condução de extração, análise e codificação de dados em Metassínteses baseada na perspectiva Straussiana, possibilitando, de forma sistematizada, a síntese de evidências qualitativas e contribuindo no desenvolvimento de modelos ou teorias de caráter conceitual.

USE OF GROUNDED THEORY IN THE EXTRACTION, CODING AND ANALYSIS OF DATA IN LITERATURE META-ANALYSES

ABSTRACT Objective: to describe the conduction of data extraction, analysis and codification using the Straussian perspective of Grounded Theory, in Literature Meta-analysis. Method: this is a theoretical-reflexive study on the data extraction from reviews with meta-anaylses. To design the process of searching for qualitative studies, this study briefly addresses the sequential steps of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses and the Joanna Briggs Institute. The extraction, analysis and codification process were carried out following the assumptions of grounded theory, with the Straussian perspective. They are the theoretical-methodological bases in the first stages of the guidelines of the literature review and Meta-analyses guides, starting with the research question until reaching the review stages, divided into identification, selection, eligibility, and inclusion. Results: the results describe the process of data extraction, analysis and codification from the Straussian perspective, using comparative analysis of data, memoranda, diagrams and possibilities of new sample groups from the detailed analytical reading of the included studies. Finally, theoretical saturation is performed, with an analysis of the findings, with examples of categories and subcategories, the emergence of the central phenomenon and presentation of the paradigmatic model. Conclusion: the essay presents subsidies for the understanding of the conduction of extraction, analysis and codification of data in meta-analyses based on the Straussian perspective, enabling the systematized analysis of qualitative evidence and contributing to the development of models or theories of conceptual character

Spatial-temporal analysis of hospitalizations with death caused by oral cancer in Brazil and its correlation with the expansion of healthcare coverage

BACKGROUND

Oral cancer (OC) is a growing public health problem worldwide. In Brazil, the National Oral Health Policy, implemented in 2004, expanded access to oral health services and prioritized OC care. However, it is not known whether this expansion resulted in a reduction in hospital admissions with death. This study aimed to analyze the proportion of hospital admissions who progressed to death due to OC in Brazil from 2007 to 2019 and its correlation with the coverage of health services.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study is an ecological, longitudinal, and analytical study of hospital admissions with death due to OC recorded in the Brazilian Hospital Information System. The following analyses were performed: descriptive, spatial (choropleth maps and Moran index), and negative binomial regression, with a hierarchical approach, estimating crude and adjusted regression coefficients (β) and respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) (alpha=5%).

RESULTS

In 2019, Moran's index (I) of spatial autocorrelation showed a negative association between hospital admissions with death and dentist surgeon/inhabitant rate (I=-0.176), physician/inhabitant rate (I=-0.157), family health strategy (FHS) coverage (I=-0.080), oral health team (OHT) coverage (I= -0.129), dental specialty centers (DSC)/inhabitant rate (I= -0.200), and oncology bed/inhabitant rate (I= -0.101). In the adjusted regression analysis, the proportion of hospitalizations with deaths caused by OC was higher in Brazilian states with a lower medical ̸inhabitant ratio (β= -0.014; p=0.040), a lower dentists/inhabitant ratio (β= -0.720; p=0.045), a lower number of DSC (β= -0.004; p<0.000), a lower amount paid per hospitalization (β= -10.350; p<0.001), and a lower number of biopsies (β= -0.00008; p=0.010). The proportion of hospitalizations that progressed to death showed a positive association with the number of days of hospitalization (β= 0.00002; p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased health care coverage has decreased serious hospital admissions with deaths caused by OC in Brazil.

Impact of socioeconomic factors and health determinants on preterm birth in Brazil: a register-based study

BACKGROUND

More than 15 million children are born preterm annually. While preterm survival rates have increased in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries, like Brazil, continue to battle high neonatal mortality rates due to a lack of adequate postnatal care. Globally, neonatal mortality is higher for preterm infants compared to those born at term. Our study aims to map and analyze the spatial, socioeconomic, and health coverage determinants related to preterm birth in Brazil in order to understand how spatial variations in demographics and access to primary care may affect preterm birth occurrences.  METHODS: Using publicly available national-level data from the Brazilian health system for 2008-2017, we conducted an ecological study to visualize the spatial distributions of preterm birth along with socioeconomic status, the structure of health services, and primary care work process, each consisting of multiple variables reduced via principal component analysis. Regression models were created to determine predictive effects of numeric and spatial variation of these scores on preterm birth rates.

RESULTS

In Brazil, preterm birth rates increased from 2008-2017, with small and rural municipalities frequently exhibiting higher rates than urban areas. Scores in socioeconomic status and work process were significant predictors of preterm birth rates, without taking into account spatial adjustment, with more positive scores in socioeconomic status predicting higher preterm birth rates (coefficient 0.001145) and higher scores in work process predicting lower preterm birth rates (coefficient -0.002416). Geographically weighted regression showed socioeconomic status to be a more significant predictor in the North, with the work process indicators being most significant in the Northeast.

CONCLUSIONS

Results support that primary care work process indicators are more significant in estimating preterm birth rates than physical structures available for care. These results emphasize the importance of ensuring the presence of the minimum human resources needed, especially in the most deprived areas of Brazil. The association between social determinants of health and preterm birth rates raises questions regarding the importance of policies dedicated to foster equity in the accessibility of healthcare services, and improve income as protective proxies for preterm birth.

Emergency Care Gap in Brazil: Geographical Accessibility as a Proxy of Response Capacity to Tackle COVID-19

Background: The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has claimed thousands of lives worldwide and disrupted the health system in many countries. As the national emergency care capacity is a crucial part of the COVID-19 response, we evaluated the Brazilian Health Care System response preparedness against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: A retrospective and ecological study was performed with data retrieved from the Brazilian Information Technology Department of the Public Health Care System. The numbers of intensive care (ICU) and hospital beds, general or intensivist physicians, nurses, nursing technicians, physiotherapists, and ventilators from each health region were extracted. Beds per health professionals and ventilators per population rates were assessed. A health service accessibility index was created using a two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA). A spatial analysis using Getis-Ord Gi^* was performed to identify areas lacking access to high-complexity centers (HCC).

Results: As of February 2020, Brazil had 35,682 ICU beds, 426,388 hospital beds, and 65,411 ventilators. In addition, 17,240 new ICU beds were created in June 2020. The South and Southeast regions have the highest rates of professionals and infrastructure to attend patients with COVID-19 compared with the northern region. The north region has the lowest accessibility to ICUs.

Conclusions: The Brazilian Health Care System is unevenly distributed across the country. The inequitable distribution of health facilities, equipment, and human resources led to inadequate preparedness to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the ineffectiveness of public measures of the municipal and federal administrations aggravated the pandemic in Brazil.

Microplanning for designing vaccination campaigns in low-resource settings: A geospatial artificial intelligence-based framework

Existing campaign-based healthcare delivery programs used for immunization often fall short of established health coverage targets due to a lack of accurate estimates for population size and location. A microplan, an integrated set of detailed planning components, can be used to identify this information to support programs such as equitable vaccination efforts. Here, we presents a series of steps necessary to create an artificial intelligence-based framework for automated microplanning, and our pilot implementation of this analysis tool across 29 countries of the Americas. Further, we describe our processes for generating a conceptual framework, creating customized catchment areas, and estimating up-to-date populations to support microplanning for health campaigns. Through our application of the present framework, we found that 68 million individuals across the 29 countries are within 5 km of a health facility. The number of health facilities analyzed ranged from 2 in Peru to 789 in Argentina, while the total population within 5 km ranged from 1,233 in Peru to 15,304,439 in Mexico. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of using this methodological framework to support the development of customized microplans for health campaigns using open-source data in multiple countries. The pandemic is demanding an improved capacity to generate successful, efficient immunization campaigns; we believe that the steps described here can increase the automation of microplans in low resource settings.

Emergency Care Sensitive Conditions in Brazil: A Geographic Information System Approach to Timely Hospital Access

Background

The benefits of treatment for many conditions are time dependent. The burden of these emergency care sensitive conditions (ECSCs) is especially high in low- and middle-income countries. Our objective was to analyze geospatial trends in ECSCs and characterize regional disparities in access to emergency care in Brazil.

Methods

From publicly available datasets, we extracted data on patients assigned an ECSC-related ICD-10 code and on the country's emergency facilities from 2015-2019. Using ArcGIS, OpenStreetMap, and WorldPop, we created catchment areas corresponding to 180 minutes of driving distance from each hospital. We then used ArcGIS to characterize space-time trends in ECSC admissions and to complete an Origin-Destination analysis to determine the path from household to closest hospital.

Findings

There were 1362 municipalities flagged as "hot spots," areas with a high volume of ECSCs. Of those, 69.7% were more than 180 minutes (171 km) from the closest emergency facility. These municipalities were primarily located in the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espiríto Santo, Tocantins, and Amapá. In the North region, only 69.1% of the population resided within 180 minutes of an emergency hospital.

Interpretations

Significant geographical barriers to accessing emergency care exist in certain areas of Brazil, especially in peri-urban areas and the North region. One limitation of this approach is that geolocation was not possible in some areas and thus we are likely underestimating the burden of inadequate access. Subsequent work should evaluate ECSC mortality data.

Funding

This study was funded by the Duke Global Health Institute Artificial Intelligence Pilot Project.

Distribution and spatial autocorrelation of the hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in adults in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the distribution and spatial autocorrelation of the hospitalization rates for cardiovascular diseases in adults, and to verify the correlation with socioeconomic and health factors in Brazil.

METHODS

An ecological study of hospitalization rates for cardiovascular diseases in adults from 2005 to 2016. Spatial dependence was analyzed by the Moran Global and Local autocorrelation coefficients. The correlation between hospitalization rates and socioeconomic and health variables was calculated using the Spearman's correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

The highest hospitalization rates were observed in the states of Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso, with high-high autocorrelation clusters for ischemic heart disease. The hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases were strongly correlated with low schooling, alcohol consumption, and diagnosis of hypertension.

CONCLUSION

The high rates of hospitalization in the states mentioned, linked to socioeconomic and health factors, suggest public policies focused on the theme.

Helicopter Transportation of Brazilian Trauma Patients: A Comparison of Times to Care

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to analyze helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) transport with secondary land ambulance transfer, comparing landings performed inside and outside the hospital complex to the emergency department.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional observational study of HEMS transports of trauma patients between 2016 and 2018 in southern Brazil. Patients were attended by the HEMS team at the trauma site or stabilized in hospitals nearby and subsequently referred to trauma centers. In this region, no trauma centers have their own helipads so helicopters land in remote areas close to the hospital, which may be inside or outside the hospital complex. Both landings require ground emergency medical service transport, with off-site landings necessitating ground emergency medical service transport via public access roads to reach the hospital. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and on-site and off-site transport times were compared using a t-test for independent samples.

RESULTS

Of 176 transports, 28.5% resulted in on-site landings, whereas 71.5% occurred off-site. The ground transport time when the landing zone was off-site was 5 minutes longer than on-site (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Off-site landings result in longer transports to the emergency room. The construction of helipads in trauma centers can reduce transport time, in addition to reducing the costs and sequelae of trauma.

Influence of the global crisis of 2008 and the brazilian political oscillations of 2014 on suicide rates: An analysis of the period from 2002 to 2017

Global suicide rates have increased in recent decades becoming a serious social and public health problem. In Brazil, rates have been increasing annually. We aimed to analyze the correlation between suicide mortality rates and global economic and political crisis periods of 2008 and 2014 in Brazil. The analysis of suicide mortality in Brazil was done using a time-series segmented linear regression model that estimated the trend of rates over time. To obtain the model, changes in the trend of both abrupt and gradual suicide rates were investigated. The results indicate statistically significant changes showing an upward trend of suicide rates during the world economic crisis (2008-2013) and during the economic and political crisis in Brazil (2014-2017) compared to previous periods, especially at the extremes of schooling (3 < years and > 8 years). Among white and parda, there were significant trend rates increases in both periods and in different regions. In the Northeast and South regions, we observed a significant increase in the trend rate for males after the Brazilian economic and political crisis (2014 to 2017). We can conclude that the national suicide rates were influenced by the economic and political instability that our country has been going through since 2008, affecting each region differently. Further studies are needed to explore the reasons for interregional differences and the relation of suicide with unemployment rates and possible economic predictors.

The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors, Coverage and Access to Health on Heart Ischemic Disease Mortality in a Brazilian Southern State: A Geospatial Analysis

Background

No other disease has killed more than ischemic heart disease (IHD) for the past few years globally. Despite the advances in cardiology, the response time for starting treatment still leads patients to death because of the lack of healthcare coverage and access to referral centers.

Objectives

To analyze the spatial disparities related to IHD mortality in the Parana state, Brazil.

Methods

An ecological study using secondary data from Brazilian Health Informatics Department between 2013-2017 was performed to verify the IHD mortality. An spatial analysis was performed using the Global Moran and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to verify the spatial dependency of IHD mortality. Lastly, multivariate spatial regression models were also developed using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to identify socioeconomic indicators (aging, income, and illiteracy rates), exam coverage (catheterization, angioplasty, and revascularization rates), and access to health (access index to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers) significantly correlated with IHD mortality. The chosen model was based on p < 0.05, highest adjusted R2 and lowest Akaike Information Criterion.

Results

A total of 22,920 individuals died from IHD between 2013-2017. The spatial analysis confirmed a positive spatial autocorrelation global between IDH mortality rates (Moran's I: 0.633, p < 0.01). The LISA analysis identified six high-high pattern clusters composed by 66 municipalities (16.5%). GWR presented the best model (Adjusted R2: 0.72) showing that accessibility to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers, and revascularization and angioplasty rates differentially affect the IHD mortality rates geographically. Aging and illiteracy rate presented positive correlation with IHD mortality rate, while income ratio presented negative correlation (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Regions of vulnerability were unveiled by the spatial analysis where sociodemographic, exam coverage and accessibility to health variables impacted differently the IHD mortality rates in Paraná state, Brazil.

Highlights

The increase in ischemic heart disease mortality rates is related to geographical disparities.The IHD mortality is differentially associated to socioeconomic factors, exam coverage, and access to health.Higher accessibility to chemical reperfusion centers did not necessarily improve patient outcomes in some regions of the state.Clusters of high mortality rate are placed in regions with low amount of cardiologists, income and schooling.

The Impact of Violence on the Anxiety Levels of Healthcare Personnel During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic stressed the importance of healthcare personnel. However, there is evidence of an increase in violence against them, which brings consequences, such as anxiety. The aim of this study was to analyze the anxiety levels of health professionals who have or not suffered violence during the COVID-19 pandemic, and verify the variables associated with the risk of starting to take medication for anxiety. Methods: We assessed the anxiety profile of health professionals in Brazil through an online questionnaire, using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item Scale (GAD-7), in relation to groups of participants who have or not suffered violence during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient to check the consistency of the responses, and the effect size using the r coefficient. Principal Component Analysis was used to verify the differences in anxiety scores between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was also used to verify the variables associated with the risk of starting medication for anxiety and considered statistically significant when p < 0.05. Results: A total of 1,166 health professionals participated in the study, in which 34.13% had a normal anxiety profile, 40.14% mild, 15.78% moderate, and 9.95% severe. The mean score of the sum of the GAD-7 was 7.03 (SD 5.20). The group that suffered violence had a higher mean (8.40; SD 5.42) compared to the group that did not (5.70; SD 4.60). In addition, the median between both groups was significantly different (7.0 vs. 5.0; p < 0.01). Approximately 18.70% of the participants reported having started taking medication to treat anxiety during the pandemic. The factors that increased the chances of these professionals starting medication for anxiety p < 0.05 were having suffered violence during the pandemic (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.42-2.77), being nurses (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.04-2.47) or other types of health professionals (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.04-2.38), and having a mild (OR 2.11; 95% CI 1.37-3.34), moderate (OR 4.05; 95% CI 2.48-6.71) or severe (OR 9.08; 95% CI 5.39-15.6) anxiety level. Conclusion: Brazilian healthcare professionals who have suffered violence during the pandemic have higher anxiety scores and higher risk to start taking anxiety medication.

Mapping risk of ischemic heart disease using machine learning in a Brazilian state

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of deaths globally. Machine learning studies predicting mortality rates for ischemic heart disease (IHD) at the municipal level are very limited. The goal of this paper was to create and validate a Heart Health Care Index (HHCI) to predict risk of IHD based on location and risk factors. Secondary data, geographical information system (GIS) and machine learning were used to validate the HHCI and stratify the IHD municipality risk in the state of Paraná. A positive spatial autocorrelation was found (Moran's I = 0.6472, p-value = 0.001), showing clusters of high IHD mortality. The Support Vector Machine, which had an RMSE of 0.789 and error proportion close to one (0.867), was the best for prediction among eight machine learning algorithms after validation. In the north and northwest regions of the state, HHCI was low and mortality clusters patterns were high. By creating an HHCI through ML, we can predict IHD mortality rate at municipal level, identifying predictive characteristics that impact health conditions of these localities' guided health management decisions for improvements for IHD within the emergency care network in the state of Paraná.

VARIABLES INVOLVED IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SCHOOL BULLYING: A BAYESIAN NETWORK ANALYSIS

Objective:

To analyze the management of bullying by the managers of elementary schools.

Methods:

Descriptive, exploratory research carried out through semi-structured interviews with 17 school counselors from a city in the South of Brazil, randomly selected from different geographical sectors. The interviews were recorded with participants’ consent and, after transcription and checking, were discarded. The interviews covered the following subjects: sociodemographic characterization of subjects, school functioning, comprehension, recognition and management of bullying cases by counselors. Data analysis was performed using the Bayesian network associated with content analysis.

Results:

The majority of subjects were females, between 30 and 50 years old. Fifteen subjects were graduated in pedagogy, and all had postgraduate degrees. Most of them worked as counselor for less than three years. Only two subjects, between 30 and 50 years old, understood the term bullying. Case recognition was lower in this age group. Having a degree influenced positively the recognition of bullying. The higher the number of students in the school, the lower the recognition of cases by managers. All subjects managed cases by addressing children, families, staff, and involving professionals and support groups.

Conclusions:

The understanding and recognition of bullying was given by a few interviewees. All managers reported similar management actions in the cases. Given the scarcity of studies on bullying management in schools, more studies in this area could improve the approach of cases and contribute to their reduction.

Geospatial analysis of births with congenital disorders, Paraná, 2008-2015: ecological study

OBJECTIVE

analyze the pattern of spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of births with congenital disorders and its relationship with social, economic, health care and environmental indicators in Paraná, Brazil, from 2008 to 2015.

METHOD

ecological study with variables extracted from secondary banks, related to the births of children of mothers residing in Paraná, in two quadrennial (2008-2011 and 2012-2015). The analysis of the rates was performed with univariate spatial (Moran) and multivariate approach (Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression).

RESULTS

the occurrence of congenital disorders presented a significant association (p<0.05) with: registration in primary care of pregnant women over 20 years of age; urbanization degree; consumption of pesticides; and balance of female formal employment.

CONCLUSION/FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

social, health care and environmental variables showed a non-stationary spatial pattern in the analyzed period and influenced positively and negatively the rates.

Road traffic crash experience among commercial motorcyclists in Kigali, Rwanda

Objective: Road traffic injuries (RTI) cause ∼1.2 million deaths and 50 million injuries annually, disproportionately occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Although policy changes and infrastructural developments have continued to contribute to the decrease in RTI-related deaths, limited studies have investigated the relationship between motorcycle taxi driver behaviors and RTIs in Rwanda. This study aims to describe the safety behaviors of commercial motorcyclists in Kigali, Rwanda.Methods: We surveyed 609 commercial motorcyclists in January 2014 then conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the results, including descriptive and bivariate logistic regression analyses.Results: We found that 38.7% of surveyed motorcycle drivers experienced a crash during their lifetime, of which, more than half (n = 134, 56.8%) suffered injuries. Of all injuries, 38.8% (n = 52) resulted in hospitalization, and 14.2% (n = 19) in disability. Among motorcyclists, 100% reported always wearing a helmet, 99% reported always wearing a chin strap, and 98.8% reported always having a passenger helmet. There was an association between sustaining a crash and believing that helmets (p = 0.08) and chin straps (p = 0.05) reduced crash risk.Conclusions: Rwandan commercial motorcyclists demonstrate generally proper safety behaviors, but remain a high-risk occupational group. Road safety policy initiatives have been effective in changing driver behavior regardless of driver safety beliefs.

Lifetime prevalence of intimate partner violence against women in an urban Brazilian city: A cross-sectional survey

Background

Intimate partner violence is a global health burden that disproportionately affects women and their health outcomes. Women in Brazil are also affected by interpersonal violence. We aimed to estimate the lifetime prevalence of three forms of interpersonal violence against women (IPVAW) and to identify sociodemographic factors associated with IPVAW in one urban Brazilian city.

Methods

Using a cross-sectional design, we interviewed women aged ≥18 years in the urban Brazilian city, Maringá, who currently have or have had an intimate partner. The 13-item WHO Violence Against Women instrument was used to ask participants about their experiences with intimate partner violence, categorized into psychological, physical and sexual violence. We estimated associations between IPVAW and sociodemographic characteristics using generalized linear models.

Results and conclusions

Of the 419 women who were enrolled and met inclusion criteria, lifetime prevalence of IPVAW was 56%. Psychological violence was more prevalent (52%) than physical (21%) or sexual violence (13%). Twenty-eight women (6.4%) experienced all three forms of IPVAW. Women were more likely to experience violence if they were employed, did not live with their partner or had 4 or more children. Educational level, household income, age and race were not significantly associated factors. Our findings highlight a high prevalence of IPVAW in a community in southern Brazil.

Suicide mortality among youth in southern Brazil: a spatiotemporal evaluation of socioeconomic vulnerability

Objective:

To conduct a geospatial analysis of suicide deaths among young people in the state of Paraná, southern Brazil, and evaluate their association with socioeconomic and spatial determinants.

Methods:

Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data on suicide mortality rates (SMR) were extracted for three age groups (15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 years) from two 5-year periods (1998-2002 and 2008-2012). Geospatial data were analyzed through exploratory spatial data analysis. We applied Bayesian networks algorithms to explore the network structure of the socioeconomic predictors of SMR.

Results:

We observed spatial dependency in SMR in both periods, revealing geospatial clusters of high SMR. Our results show that socioeconomic deprivation at the municipality level was an important determinant of suicide in the youth population in Paraná, and significantly influenced the formation of high-risk SMR clusters.

Conclusion:

While youth suicide is multifactorial, there are predictable geospatial and sociodemographic factors associated with high SMR among municipalities in Paraná. Suicide among youth aged 15-29 occurs in geographic clusters which are associated with socioeconomic deprivation. Rural settings with poor infrastructure and development also correlate with increased SMR clusters.

Disparities in surgical care for children across Brazil: Use of geospatial analysis

Background

Health systems for surgical care for children in low- and middle-income countries remain poorly understood. Our goal was to characterize the delivery of surgical care for children across Brazil and to identify associations between surgical resources and childhood mortality.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional, ecological study to analyze surgical care for children in the public health system (Sistema Único de Saúde) across Brazil from 2010 to 2015. We collected data from several national databases, and used geospatial analysis (two-step floating catchment, Getis-Ord-Gi analysis, and geographically weighted regression) to explore relationships between infrastructure, workforce, access, procedure rate, under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), and perioperative mortality rate (POMR).

Results

A total of 246,769 surgical procedures were performed in 6,007 first level/ district hospitals and 491 referral hospitals across Brazil over the study period. The surgical workforce is distributed unevenly across the country, with 0.13–0.26 pediatric surgeons per 100,000 children in the poorer North, Northeast and Midwest regions, and 0.6–0.68 pediatric surgeons per 100,000 children in the wealthier South and Southeast regions. Hospital infrastructure, procedure rate, and access to care is also unequally distributed across the country, with increased resources in the South and Southeast compared to the Northeast, North, and Midwest. The U5MR varies widely across the country, although procedure-specific POMR is consistent across regions. Increased access to care is associated with lower U5MR across Brazil, and access to surgical care differs by geographic region independent of socioeconomic status.

Conclusions

There are wide disparities in surgical care for children across Brazil, with infrastructure, manpower, and resources distributed unevenly across the country. Access to surgical care is associated with improved U5MR independent of socioeconomic status. To address these disparities, policy should direct the allocation of surgical resources commensurate with local population needs.

Early death by tuberculosis as the underlying cause in a state of Southern Brazil: Profile, comorbidities and associated vulnerabilities

AIM

To know the profile of adults who died by tuberculosis as the main cause, the time interval between the diagnosis and death, associated comorbidities and vulnerabilities.

METHOD

Observational study of secondary data regarding deaths by tuberculosis that occurred in the State of Paraná, Brazil, from 2008 to 2015. A linkage between the databases of mortality and tuberculosis notification system was conducted for data enrichment. Frequency tables, Exact Fisher test and Z test have identified statistical associations.

RESULTS

Linkage points out 12.1% (115/944) of under-reporting in the 944 deaths identified. Early deaths accounted for 74.6% (705/944). The male sex (75.8%) was associated with the early death group. Almost half of the deaths reported in notification system (414/829) had one or more vulnerabilities. Early death were associated with respiratory system diseases and symptoms (p=0.0001) and mental and behavioral disorders (p=0.0001).

CONCLUSION

High number of early deaths due TB indicate the need to seek out the respiratory symptomatic and use faster diagnostic methods. Strategies for treatment adherence, adequate monitoring of comorbidities and multisectorial support may prevent early and late death. The presence of vulnerabilities indicates that efforts beyond the health sector are needed in order to eliminate tuberculosis as public health problem.

The distribution of cardiac diagnostic testing for acute coronary syndrome in the Brazilian healthcare system: A national geospatial evaluation of health access

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the utilization of cardiac diagnostic testing in Brazil and how such testing is related with local rates of acute coronary syndrome (ACS)-related mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from DATASUS, the public national healthcare database, absolute counts of diagnostic tests performed were calculated for each of the 5570 municipalities and mapped. Spatial error regression and geographic weighted regression models were used to describe the geographic variation in the association between ACS mortality, income, and access to diagnostic testing. From 2008 to 2014, a total of 4,653,884 cardiac diagnostic procedures were performed in Brazil, at a total cost of $271 million USD. The overall ACS mortality rate during this time period was 133.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants aged 20 to 79. The most commonly utilized test was the stress ECG (3,015,993), followed by catheterization (862,627), scintigraphy (669,969) and stress echocardiography (105,295). The majority of these procedures were conducted in large urban centers in more economically developed regions of the country. Increased access to testing and increased income were not uniformly associated with decreased ACS mortality, and tremendous geographic heterogeneity was observed in the relationship between these variables.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of testing for ACS in Brazil is conducted at referral centers in developed urban settings. Stress ECG is the dominant testing modality in use. Increased access to diagnostic testing was not consistently associated with decreased ACS mortality across the country.

Spatial prediction of risk areas for vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the State of Paraná, southern Brazil

After obtaining certification of the absence of transmission of the Trypanosoma cruzi by Triatoma infestans in 2006, other native species of protozoan vectors have been found in human dwellings within municipalities of the State of Paraná, Southern Brazil. However, the spatial distribution of T. cruzi vectors and how climatic and landscape combined variables explain the distribution are still poorly understood. The goal of this study was to predict the potential distribution of T. cruzi vectors as a proxy for Chagas disease transmission risk using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on climatic and landscape variables. We hypothesize that ENM based on both climate and landscape variables are more powerful than climate-only or landscape-only models, and that this will be true independent of vector species. A total of 2,662 records of triatomines of five species were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance from 2007 to 2013. The species with the highest number of specimens was Panstrongylus megistus (73%; n = 1,943), followed by Panstrongylus geniculatus (15.4%; 411), Rhodnius neglectus (6.0%; 159), Triatoma sordida (4.5%; 119) and Rhodnius prolixus (1.1%; 30). Of the total, 71.9% were captured at the intradomicile. T. cruzi infection was observed in 19.7% of the 2,472 examined insects. ENMs were generated based on selected climate and landscape variables with 1 km2 spatial resolution. Zonal statistics were used for classifying the municipalities as to the risk of occurrence of synanthropic triatomines. The integrated analysis of the climate and landscape suitability on triatomines geographical distribution was powerful on generating good predictive models. Moreover, this showed that some municipalities in the northwest, north and northeast of the Paraná state have a higher risk of T. cruzi vector transmission. This occurs because those regions present high climatic and landscape suitability values for occurrence of their vectors. The frequent invasion of houses by infected triatomines clearly indicates a greater risk of transmission of T. cruzi to the inhabitants. More public health attention should be given in the northern areas of the State of Paraná, which presents high climate and landscape suitabilities for the disease vectors. In conclusion, our results-through spatial analysis and predictive maps-showed to be effective in identifying areas of potential distribution and, consequently, in the definition of strategic areas and actions to prevent new cases of Chagas' disease, reinforcing the need for continuous and robust surveillance in these areas.

Road traffic injury in sub-Saharan African countries: A systematic review and summary of observational studies

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to evaluate, through a systematic review of hospital-based studies, the proportion of road traffic injuries and fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

In accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines, we searched the following electronic databases: PubMed, Embase, Africa-Wide Information, Global Health, and Web of Science. Articles were eligible if they measured proportion of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in SSA by using hospital-based studies. In addition, a reference and citation analysis was conducted as well as a data quality assessment.

RESULTS

Up to 2015, there were a total of 83 hospital-based epidemiologic studies, including 310,660 trauma patients and 99,751 RTI cases, in 13 SSA countries. The median proportion of RTIs among trauma patients was 32% (4 to 91%), of which the median proportion of death for the included articles was 5% (0.3 to 41%).

CONCLUSION

The number of studies evaluating RTI proportions and fatalities in SSA countries is increasing but without the exponential rise expected from World Health Organization calls for research during the Decade of Action for Road Traffic Injuries. Further research infrastructure including standardization of taxonomy, definitions, and data reporting measures, as well as funding, would allow for improved cross-country comparisons.

Geospatial analysis of unmet pediatric surgical need in Uganda

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), an estimated 85% of children do not have access to surgical care. The objective of the current study was to determine the geographic distribution of surgical conditions among children throughout Uganda.

METHODS

Using the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need (SOSAS) survey, we enumerated 2176 children in 2315 households throughout Uganda. At the district level, we determined the spatial autocorrelation of surgical need with geographic access to surgical centers variable.

FINDINGS

The highest average distance to a surgical center was found in the northern region at 14.97km (95% CI: 11.29km-16.89km). Younger children less than five years old had a higher prevalence of unmet surgical need in all four regions than their older counterparts. The spatial regression model showed that distance to surgical center and care availability were the main spatial predictors of unmet surgical need.

INTERPRETATION

We found differences in unmet surgical need by region and age group of the children, which could serve as priority areas for focused interventions to alleviate the burden. Future studies could be conducted in the northern regions to develop targeted interventions aimed at increasing pediatric surgical care in the areas of most need.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

Hotspots and causes of motor vehicle crashes in Baltimore, Maryland: A geospatial analysis of five years of police crash and census data

INTRODUCTION

Road traffic injuries are a leading killer of youth (aged 15-29) and are projected to be the 7th leading cause of death by 2030. To better understand road traffic crash locations and characteristics in the city of Baltimore, we used police and census data, to describe the epidemiology, hotspots, and modifiable risk factors involved to guide further interventions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data on all crashes in Baltimore City from 2009 to 2013 were made available from the Maryland Automated Accident Reporting System. Socioeconomic data collected by the US CENSUS 2010 were obtained. A time series analysis was conducted using an ARIMA model. We analyzed the geographical distribution of traffic crashes and hotspots using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial autocorrelation. Spatial regression was performed to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic indicators on hotspots.

RESULTS

In Baltimore City, between 2009 and 2013, there were a total of 100,110 crashes reported, with 1% of crashes considered severe. Of all crashes, 7% involved vulnerable road users and 12% had elderly or youth involvement. Reasons for crashes included: distracted driving (31%), speeding (6%), and alcohol or drug use (5%). After 2010, we observed an increasing trend in all crashes especially from March to June. Distracted driving then youth and elderly drivers were consistently the highest risk factors over time. Multivariate spatial regression model including socioeconomic indicators and controlling for age, gender and population size did not show a distinct predictor of crashes explaining only 20% of the road crash variability, indicating crashes are not geographically explained by socioeconomic indicators alone.

CONCLUSION

In Baltimore City, road traffic crashes occurred predominantly in the high density center of the city, involved distracted driving and extremes of age with an increase in crashes from March to June. There was no association between socioeconomic variables where crashes occurred and hotspots. In depth analysis of how modifiable risk factors are impacted by geospatial characteristics and the built environment is warranted in Baltimore to tailor interventions.

Quantifying the pediatric surgical need in Uganda: results of a nationwide cross-sectional, household survey

PURPOSE

Little is known about the prevalence of pediatric surgical conditions in low- and middle-income countries. Many children never seek medical care, thus the true prevalence of surgical conditions in children in Uganda is unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of surgical conditions in children in Uganda.

METHODS

Using the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need (SOSAS) survey, we enumerated 4248 individuals in 2315 households in 105 randomly selected clusters throughout Uganda. Children aged 0-18 were included if randomly selected from the household; for those who could not answer for themselves, parents served as surrogates.

RESULTS

Of 2176 children surveyed, 160 (7.4 %) reported a currently untreated surgical condition. Lifetime prevalence of surgical conditions was 14.0 % (305/2176). The predominant cause of surgical conditions was trauma (48.4 %), followed by wounds (19.7 %), acquired deformities (16.2 %), and burns (12.5 %). Of 90 pediatric household deaths, 31.1 % were associated with a surgically treatable proximate cause of death (28/90 deaths).

CONCLUSION

Although some trauma-related surgical burden among children can be adequately addressed at district hospitals, the need for diagnostics, human resources, and curative services for more severe trauma cases, congenital deformities, and masses outweighs the current capacity of hospitals and trained pediatric surgeons in Uganda.

Road Traffic Injury Prevention Initiatives: A Systematic Review and Metasummary of Effectiveness in Low and Middle Income Countries

Background

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a growing but neglected global health crisis, requiring effective prevention to promote sustainable safety. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) share a disproportionately high burden with 90% of the world’s road traffic deaths, and where RTIs are escalating due to rapid urbanization and motorization. Although several studies have assessed the effectiveness of a specific intervention, no systematic reviews have been conducted summarizing the effectiveness of RTI prevention initiatives specifically performed in LMIC settings; this study will help fill this gap.

Methods

In accordance with PRISMA guidelines we searched the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, TRID, Lilacs, Scielo and Global Health. Articles were eligible if they considered RTI prevention in LMICs by evaluating a prevention-related intervention with outcome measures of crash, RTI, or death. In addition, a reference and citation analysis was conducted as well as a data quality assessment. A qualitative metasummary approach was used for data analysis and effect sizes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of emerging themes.

Results

Of the 8560 articles from the literature search, 18 articles from 11 LMICs fit the eligibility and inclusion criteria. Of these studies, four were from Sub-Saharan Africa, ten from Latin America and the Caribbean, one from the Middle East, and three from Asia. Half of the studies focused specifically on legislation, while the others focused on speed control measures, educational interventions, enforcement, road improvement, community programs, or a multifaceted intervention.

Conclusion

Legislation was the most common intervention evaluated with the best outcomes when combined with strong enforcement initiatives or as part of a multifaceted approach. Because speed control is crucial to crash and injury prevention, road improvement interventions in LMIC settings should carefully consider how the impact of improvements will affect speed and traffic flow. Further road traffic injury prevention interventions should be performed in LMICs with patient-centered outcomes in order to guide injury prevention in these complex settings.

System dynamics modeling in the evaluation of delays of care in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients within a tiered health system

Background

Mortality rates amongst ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients remain high, especially in developing countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the factors related with delays in the treatment of STEMI patients to support a strategic plan toward structural and personnel modifications in a primary hospital aligning its process with international guidelines.

Methods and Findings

The study was conducted in a primary hospital localized in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. We utilized a qualitative and quantitative integrated analysis including on-site observations, interviews, medical records analysis, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and System Dynamics Modeling (SD). Main cause of delays were categorized into three themes: a) professional, b) equipment and c) transportation logistics. QCA analysis confirmed four main stages of delay to STEMI patient’s care in relation to the ‘Door-in-Door-out’ time at the primary hospital. These stages and their average delays in minutes were: a) First Medical Contact (From Door-In to the first contact with the nurse and/or physician): 7 minutes; b) Electrocardiogram acquisition and review by a physician: 28 minutes; c) ECG transmission and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Center team feedback time: 76 minutes; and d) Patient’s Transfer Waiting Time: 78 minutes. SD baseline model confirmed the system’s behavior with all occurring delays and the need of improvements. Moreover, after model validation and sensitivity analysis, results suggested that an overall improvement of 40% to 50% in each of these identified stages would reduce the delay.

Conclusions

This evaluation suggests that investment in health personnel training, diminution of bureaucracy, and management of guidelines might lead to important improvements decreasing the delay of STEMI patients’ care. In addition, this work provides evidence that SD modeling may highlight areas where health system managers can implement and evaluate the necessary changes in order to improve the process of care.

Acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa: the need for data

BACKGROUND

Trends in the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa have not been well described, despite growing recognition of the increasing burden of cardiovascular disease in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this systematic review was to describe the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health Archive, CINAHL, and Web of Science, and conducted reference and citation analyses. Inclusion criteria were: observational studies, studies that reported incidence or prevalence of acute myocardial infarction, studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, and studies that defined acute myocardial infarction by EKG changes or elevation of cardiac biomarkers. Studies conducted prior to 1992 were excluded. Two independent reviewers analyzed titles and abstracts, full-texts, and references and citations. These reviewers also performed quality assessment and data extraction. Quality assessment was conducted with a validated scale for observational studies.

FINDINGS

Of 2292 records retrieved, seven studies met all inclusion criteria. These studies included a total of 92,378 participants from highly heterogeneous study populations in five different countries. Methodological quality assessment demonstrated scores ranging from 3 to 7 points (on an 8-point scale). Prevalence of acute myocardial infarction ranged from 0.1 to 10.4% among the included studies.

INTERPRETATION

There is insufficient population-based data describing the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa. Well-designed registries and surveillance studies that capture the broad and diverse population with acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa using common diagnostic criteria are critical in order to guide prevention and treatment strategies.

REGISTRATION

Registered in International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) Database #CRD42012003161.

Brazilian road traffic fatalities: a spatial and environmental analysis

Background

Road traffic injuries (RTI) are a major public health epidemic killing thousands of people daily. Low and middle-income countries, such as Brazil, have the highest annual rates of road traffic fatalities. In order to improve road safety, this study mapped road traffic fatalities on a Brazilian highway to determine the main environmental factors affecting road traffic fatalities.

Methods and Findings

Four techniques were utilized to identify and analyze RTI hotspots. We used spatial analysis by points by applying kernel density estimator, and wavelet analysis to identify the main hot regions. Additionally, built environment analysis, and principal component analysis were conducted to verify patterns contributing to crash occurrence in the hotspots. Between 2007 and 2009, 379 crashes were notified, with 466 fatalities on BR277. Higher incidence of crashes occurred on sections of highway with double lanes (ratio 2∶1). The hotspot analysis demonstrated that both the eastern and western regions had higher incidences of crashes when compared to the central region. Through the built environment analysis, we have identified five different patterns, demonstrating that specific environmental characteristics are associated with different types of fatal crashes. Patterns 2 and 4 are constituted mainly by predominantly urban characteristics and have frequent fatal pedestrian crashes. Patterns 1, 3 and 5 display mainly rural characteristics and have higher prevalence of vehicular collisions. In the built environment analysis, the variables length of road in urban area, limited lighting, double lanes roadways, and less auxiliary lanes were associated with a higher incidence of fatal crashes.

Conclusions

By combining different techniques of analyses, we have identified numerous hotspots and environmental characteristics, which governmental or regulatory agencies could make use to plan strategies to reduce RTI and support life-saving policies.

Serious adverse events associated with yellow fever 17DD vaccine in Brazil: a report of two cases

BACKGROUND

The yellow fever vaccine is regarded as one of the safest attenuated virus vaccines, with few side-effects or adverse events. We report the occurrence of two fatal cases of haemorrhagic fever associated with yellow fever 17DD substrain vaccine in Brazil.

METHODS

We obtained epidemiological, serological, virological, pathological, immunocytochemical, and molecular biological data on the two cases to determine the cause of the illnesses.

FINDINGS

The first case, in a 5-year-old white girl, was characterised by sudden onset of fever accompanied by headache, malaise, and vomiting 3 days after receiving yellow fever and measles-mumps-rubella vaccines. Afterwards she decompensated with icterus and haemorrhagic signs and died after a 5-day illness. The second patient-a 22-year-old black woman-developed a sore throat and fever accompanied by headache, myalgia, nausea, and vomiting 4 days after yellow fever vaccination. She then developed icterus, renal failure, and haemorrhagic diathesis, and died after 6 days of illness. Yellow fever virus was recovered in suckling mice and C6/36 cells from blood in both cases, as well as from fragments of liver, spleen, skin, and heart from the first case and from these and other viscera fragments in case 2. RNA of yellow fever virus was identical to that previously described for 17D genomic sequences. IgM ELISA tests for yellow fever virus were negative in case 1 and positive in case 2; similar tests for dengue, hantaviruses, arenaviruses, Leptospira, and hepatitis viruses A-D were negative. Tissue injuries from both patients were typical of wild-type yellow fever.

INTERPRETATION

These serious and hitherto unknown complications of yellow fever vaccination are extremely rare, but the safety of yellow fever 17DD vaccine needs to be reviewed. Host factors, probably idiosyncratic reactions, might have had a substantial contributed to the unexpected outcome.

Comparative efficacy of three different diethylcarbamazine regimens in lymphatic filariasis

To assess the efficacy of diethylcarbamazine (DEC) in clearing Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae (mf) from the circulation, we conducted a single blind hospital-based therapeutic trial of 3 DEC regimens. All patients were assessed by filtration of 1 mL of venous blood taken before and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after DEC administration. The efficacy of a 12 d course of 6 mg/kg DEC once daily was identical to that of a similar course with 2 mg/kg given 3 times daily, indicating that split-dose treatment does not improve mf clearance over single daily drug administration. Microfilarial densities in patients treated only once with 6 mg/kg DEC remained significantly higher at 1, 3, and 6 months after treatment. However, all 3 treatment regimens proved equally effective in controlling microfilaraemia after 12 months, when 41, 42 and 40% of patients in the 3 treatment groups were amicrofilaraemic. These results suggest that a single DEC dose of 6 mg/kg administered annually or biannually may be a suitable regimen to control bancroftian filariasis in Recife, Brazil.

Treatment of bancroftian filariasis in Recife, Brazil: a two-year comparative study of the efficacy of single treatments with ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine

The effectiveness of single oral doses of ivermectin (200 or 400 micrograms/kg) and diethylcarbamazine (DEC, 6 mg/kg), preceded 4 d earlier by either placebo or very small doses of these drugs, was compared, over a 2-year period, in a double-blind trial in 67 microfilaraemic Brazilian men with bancroftian filariasis. Regimens containing ivermectin alone decreased the number of microfilariae significantly faster and more effectively for the first month after treatment than regimens containing DEC alone, but the latter were significantly more effective throughout the second year after treatment (1.7-8.2% of pretreatment levels with DEC vs. 12.6-30.8% with ivermectin during that period); the higher ivermectin dose showed a tendency towards more effectiveness than the lower dose. Most effective was the combination of ivermectin (20 micrograms/kg) followed 4 d later by DEC (6 mg/kg), with reduction of microfilaraemia to 2.4% of pretreatment levels at 2 years. Adverse reactions were well tolerated with all regimens, the reactions being significantly more generalized (i.e., fever) following ivermectin and localized (i.e., scrotal inflammatory nodules around dying adult worms) following DEC. Further trials of single-dose combination therapy vs. single high doses of ivermectin or DEC should determine the ideal regimen for treatment and control of bancroftian filariasis.