Prognostic factors for disease activity in newly diagnosed teriflunomide-treated patients with multiple sclerosis: a nationwide Danish study

BACKGROUND

Clinicians frequently rely on relapse counts, T2 MRI lesion load (T2L) and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores to guide treatment decisions for individuals diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). This study evaluates how these factors, along with age and sex, influence prognosis during treatment with teriflunomide (TFL).

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide cohort study using data from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry.Eligible participants had relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome and initiated TFL as their first treatment between 2013 and 2019. The effect of age, pretreatment relapses, T2L and EDSS scores on the risk of disease activity on TFL were stratified by sex.

RESULTS

In total, 784 individuals were included (57.4% females). A high number of pretreatment relapses (≥2) was associated with an increased risk of disease activity in females only (OR and (95% CI): 1.76 (1.11 to 2.81)). Age group 50+ was associated with a lower risk of disease activity in both sexes (OR females=0.28 (0.14 to 0.56); OR males=0.22 (0.09 to 0.55)), while age 35-49 showed a different impact in males and females (OR females=0.79 (0.50 to 1.23); OR males=0.42 (0.24 to 0.72)). EDSS scores and T2L did not show any consistent associations.

CONCLUSION

A high number of pretreatment relapses was only associated with an increased risk of disease activity in females, while age had a differential impact on the risk of disease activity according to sex. Clinicians may consider age, sex and relapses when deciding on TFL treatment.

Big Multiple Sclerosis Data network: an international registry research network

BACKGROUND

The Big Multiple Sclerosis Data (BMSD) network ( https://bigmsdata.org ) was initiated in 2014 and includes the national multiple sclerosis (MS) registries of the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Italy, and Sweden as well as the international MSBase registry. BMSD has addressed the ethical, legal, technical, and governance-related challenges for data sharing and so far, published three scientific papers on pooled datasets as proof of concept for its collaborative design.

DATA COLLECTION

Although BMSD registries operate independently on different platforms, similarities in variables, definitions and data structure allow joint analysis of data. Certain coordinated modifications in how the registries collect adverse event data have been implemented after BMSD consensus decisions, showing the ability to develop together.

DATA MANAGEMENT

Scientific projects can be proposed by external sponsors via the coordinating centre and each registry decides independently on participation, respecting its governance structure. Research datasets are established in a project-to-project fashion and a project-specific data model is developed, based on a unifying core data model. To overcome challenges in data sharing, BMSD has developed procedures for federated data analysis.

FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

Presently, BMSD is seeking a qualification opinion from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to conduct post-authorization safety studies (PASS) and aims to pursue a qualification opinion also for post-authorization effectiveness studies (PAES). BMSD aspires to promote the advancement of real-world evidence research in the MS field.

COVID-19 vaccination and relapse activity: A nationwide cohort study of patients with multiple sclerosis in Denmark

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We evaluated whether there was a difference in the occurrence of relapses pre- and post-COVID-19 vaccination in a nationwide cohort of Danish patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, nationwide cohort study with a cutoff date of 1 October 2022. We used McNemar tests to assess changes in the proportion of patients with recorded relapses within 90 days and 180 days before and after first vaccine dose, and a negative binomial regression model to compare the 90 and 180 days postvaccination annualized relapse rate (ARR) to the 360 days prevaccination ARR. Multivariate Cox regression was used to estimate relapse risk factors.

RESULTS

We identified 8169 vaccinated (87.3% Comirnaty) patients without a recorded history of a positive COVID-19 test. We did not find statistically significant changes in the proportion of patients with relapses in the 90 days (1.3% vs. 1.4% of patients, p = 0.627) and 180 days (2.7% vs. 2.6% of patients, p = 0.918) pre- and postvaccination. Also, a comparison of the ARR 360 days before (0.064, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.058-0.070) with the ARR 90 (0.057, 95% CI = 0.047-0.069, p = 0.285) and 180 (0.055, 95% CI = 0.048-0.063, p = 0.060) days after vaccination did not show statistically significant differences. Lower age, higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score, and relapse within 360 days before vaccination were associated with a higher risk of relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find evidence of increased relapse activity following the administration of the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Predictors of treatment switching in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network

Background

Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods.

Objective

The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry.

Methods

In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect.

Results

Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48-2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79-8.41; reference = 1996-2006).

Conclusion

Switching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.

The impact of healthcare systems on the clinical diagnosis and disease-modifying treatment usage in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis: a real-world perspective in five registries across Europe

Introduction

Prescribing guidance for disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is centred on a clinical diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). DMT prescription guidelines and monitoring vary across countries. Standardising the approach to diagnosis of disease course, for example, assigning RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS) diagnoses, allows examination of the impact of health system characteristics on the stated clinical diagnosis and treatment access.

Methods

We analysed registry data from six cohorts in five countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and United Kingdom) on patients with an initial diagnosis of RRMS. We standardised our approach utilising a pre-existing algorithm (DecisionTree, DT) to determine patient diagnoses of RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS). We identified five global drivers of DMT prescribing: Provision, Availability, Funding, Monitoring and Audit, data were analysed against these concepts using meta-analysis and univariate meta-regression.

Results

In 64,235 patients, we found variations in DMT use between countries, with higher usage in RRMS and lower usage in SPMS, with correspondingly lower usage in the UK compared to other registers. Factors such as female gender (p = 0.041), increasing disability via Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score (p = 0.004), and the presence of monitoring (p = 0.029) in SPMS influenced the likelihood of receiving DMTs. Standardising the diagnosis revealed differences in reclassification rates from clinical RRMS to DT-SPMS, with Sweden having the lowest rate Sweden (Sweden 0.009, range: Denmark 0.103 - UK portal 0.311). Those with higher EDSS at index (p < 0.03) and female gender (p < 0.049) were more likely to be reclassified from RRMS to DT-SPMS. The study also explored the impact of diagnosis on DMT usage in clinical SPMS, finding that the prescribing environment and auditing practices affected access to treatment.

Discussion

This highlights the importance of a healthcare system's approach to verifying the clinical label of MS course in facilitating appropriate prescribing, with some flexibility allowed in uncertain cases to ensure continued access to treatment.

Socioeconomic status of the elderly MS population compared to the general population: a nationwide Danish matched cross-sectional study

Introduction/objectives

Multiple sclerosis (MS) leads to physical and cognitive disability, which in turn impacts the socioeconomic status of the individual. The altered socioeconomic trajectory combined with the critical role of aging in MS progression could potentially lead to pronounced differences between MS patients and the general population. Few nations have the ability to connect long-term clinical and socioeconomic data at the individual level, and Denmark's robust population-based registries offer unique insights. This study aimed to examine the socioeconomic aspects of elderly Danish MS patients in comparison to matched controls from the general population.

Methods

A nationwide population-based study in Denmark was conducted, comprising all living MS patients aged 50 years or older as of 1 January 2021. Patients were matched 1:10 based on sex, age, ethnicity, and residence with a 25% sample of the total Danish population. Demographic and clinical information was sourced from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, while socioeconomic data were derived from national population-based registries containing details on education, employment, social services, and household characteristics. Univariate comparisons between MS patients and matched controls were then carried out.

Results

The study included 8,215 MS patients and 82,150 matched individuals, with a mean age of 63.4 years (SD: 8.9) and a 2:1 female-to-male ratio. For those aged 50-64 years, MS patients demonstrated lower educational attainment (high education: 28.3 vs. 34.4%, P < 0.001) and fewer received income from employment (46.0 vs. 78.9%, P < 0.001), and working individuals had a lower annual income (48,500 vs. 53,500€, P < 0.001) in comparison to the controls. Additionally, MS patients within this age group were more likely to receive publicly funded practical assistance (14.3 vs. 1.6%, P < 0.001) and personal care (10.5 vs. 0.8%, P < 0.001). Across the entire population, MS patients were more likely to live alone (38.7 vs. 33.8%, P < 0.001) and less likely to have one or more children (84.2 vs. 87.0%, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

MS presents significant socioeconomic challenges among the elderly population, such as unemployment, reduced income, and increased dependence on social care. These findings underscore the pervasive impact of MS on an individual's life course, extending beyond the clinical symptoms of cognitive and physical impairment.

Natalizumab treatment of multiple sclerosis - a Danish nationwide study with 13 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND

Natalizumab is a widely used high-efficacy treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Real-world evidence regarding long-term effectiveness and safety is warranted. We performed a nationwide study evaluating prescription patterns, effectiveness, and adverse events.

METHODS

A nationwide cohort study using the Danish MS Registry. Patients initiating natalizumab between June 2006 and April 2020 were included. Patient characteristics, annualized relapse rates (ARRs), confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score worsening, MRI activity (new/enlarging T2- or gadolinium-enhancing lesions), and reported adverse events were evaluated. Further, prescription patterns and outcomes across different time periods ("epochs") were analysed.

RESULTS

In total, 2424 patients were enrolled, with a median follow-up time of 2.7 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.2-5.1). In recent epochs, patients were younger, had lower EDSS scores, had fewer pre-treatment relapses and were more often treatment naïve. At 13 years of follow-up, 36% had a confirmed EDSS worsening. On-treatment ARR was 0.30, corresponding to a 72% reduction from pre-initiation. MRI activity was rare, 6.8% had activity within 2-14 months from treatment start, 3.4% within 14-26 months, and 2.7% within 26-38 months. Approximately 14% of patients reported adverse events, with cephalalgia constituting the majority. During the study, 62.3% discontinued treatment. Of these, the main cause (41%) was due to JCV antibodies, while discontinuations due to disease activity (9%) or adverse events (9%) were less frequent.

CONCLUSION

Natalizumab is increasingly used earlier in the disease course. Most patients treated with natalizumab are clinically stable with few adverse events. JCV antibodies constitute the main cause for discontinuation.

Proportion and characteristics of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in five European registries using objective classifiers

Background

To assign a course of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) (SPMS) may be difficult and the proportion of persons with SPMS varies between reports. An objective method for disease course classification may give a better estimation of the relative proportions of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and SPMS and may identify situations where SPMS is under reported.

Materials and methods

Data were obtained for 61,900 MS patients from MS registries in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (UK), including date of birth, sex, SP conversion year, visits with an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, MS onset and diagnosis date, relapses, and disease-modifying treatment (DMT) use. We included RRMS or SPMS patients with at least one visit between January 2017 and December 2019 if ≥ 18 years of age. We applied three objective methods: A set of SPMS clinical trial inclusion criteria ("EXPAND criteria") modified for a real-world evidence setting, a modified version of the MSBase algorithm, and a decision tree-based algorithm recently published.

Results

The clinically assigned proportion of SPMS varied from 8.7% (Czechia) to 34.3% (UK). Objective classifiers estimated the proportion of SPMS from 15.1% (Germany by the EXPAND criteria) to 58.0% (UK by the decision tree method). Due to different requirements of number of EDSS scores, classifiers varied in the proportion they were able to classify; from 18% (UK by the MSBase algorithm) to 100% (the decision tree algorithm for all registries). Objectively classified SPMS patients were older, converted to SPMS later, had higher EDSS at index date and higher EDSS at conversion. More objectively classified SPMS were on DMTs compared to the clinically assigned.

Conclusion

SPMS appears to be systematically underdiagnosed in MS registries. Reclassified patients were more commonly on DMTs.

Real-world experience of cladribine treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: A Danish nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Cladribine is a nucleoside analogue interfering with synthesis and repair of DNA. Treatment with cladribine leads to a preferential reduction in lymphocytes, resulting in profound depletion of B-cells with a rapid recovery of naïve B-cells, while T-cell show a lesser but long-lasting depletion It is approved for treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). Cladribine tablets 3.5 mg/kg bodyweight are administered in two yearly treatment courses, each including two treatment series lasting 4 or 5 days, one at the start of the first month and the other at the start of the second month.

OBJECTIVE

To describe treatment patterns of cladribine in a real-world setting.

METHODS

Registry based observational cohort study with prospectively enrolled cases from December 2017 through June 2021. The data source is The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, which is a near complete nationwide population-based registry. Outcomes were length of the treatment, preceding and following treatments, treatment response, and safety data.

RESULTS

In total 268 patients had started therapy with cladribine tablets, 89 men and 179 women, with a median age of 40 years (interquartile range (IQR) 32-48. The disease course was relapsing-remitting MS in 97.8% of the patients, and at treatment start the median time from disease onset was 8.1 years (IQR 4.2-14.5) and EDSS 2.5 (IQR 1.5-3.5). Thirty-four patients (12.7%) were treatment naïve while 56 (20.9%) had received one previous disease-modifying therapy (DMT), 67 (25.0%) two, and 111 (41.4%) three or more previous DMTs. In total, 214 (80.0%) patients had completed the full treatment of two courses of cladribine, while 54 (20.0%) had received only one course of cladribine tablets. The median follow-up time after cladribine initiation was 34.7 months (IQR 23.3-43.7). Compared with an annualized relapse rate (ARR) of 0.67 (95% CI [0.56, 0.79]) in the year prior to start of cladribine, ARR was reduced to 0.11 (95% CI [0.08, 0.15]) in year 0-2 after 3-month re-baseline with cladribine (84.8% reduction). Adverse events, reported in 44 (16.4%) of the patients, were mild or moderate, and herpes zoster was only reported in 2 patients. In total, 30 (11.2%) patients discontinued cladribine treatment, of whom 7 (2.6%) discontinued because of adverse effects and 12 (4.5%) discontinued because of disease activity.

CONCLUSION

In this nationwide review of all Danish patients starting therapy with cladribine tablets in a real-world setting, cladribine treatment was safe, and the therapeutic response was as expected from previous clinical trials. A prolonged observation period is necessary to assess the long-term benefit and risk of cladribine.

Canalized gene expression during development mediates caste differentiation in ants

Ant colonies are higher-level organisms consisting of specialized reproductive and non-reproductive individuals that differentiate early in development, similar to germ-soma segregation in bilateral Metazoa. Analogous to diverging cell lines, developmental differentiation of individual ants has often been considered in epigenetic terms but the sets of genes that determine caste phenotypes throughout larval and pupal development remain unknown. Here, we reconstruct the individual developmental trajectories of two ant species, Monomorium pharaonis and Acromyrmex echinatior, after obtaining >1,400 whole-genome transcriptomes. Using a new backward prediction algorithm, we show that caste phenotypes can be accurately predicted by genome-wide transcriptome profiling. We find that caste differentiation is increasingly canalized from early development onwards, particularly in germline individuals (gynes/queens) and that the juvenile hormone signalling pathway plays a key role in this process by regulating body mass divergence between castes. We quantified gene-specific canalization levels and found that canalized genes with gyne/queen-biased expression were enriched for ovary and wing functions while canalized genes with worker-biased expression were enriched in brain and behavioural functions. Suppression in gyne larvae of Freja, a highly canalized gyne-biased ovary gene, disturbed pupal development by inducing non-adaptive intermediate phenotypes between gynes and workers. Our results are consistent with natural selection actively maintaining canalized caste phenotypes while securing robustness in the life cycle ontogeny of ant colonies.

Rebound of clinical disease activity after fingolimod discontinuation? A nationwide cohort study of patients in Denmark

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether clinical rebound occurred after fingolimod discontinuation in a complete population of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) in Denmark. We further identified clinical and demographical factors associated with disease reactivation after fingolimod discontinuation.

METHODS

The population comprised 992 RRMS patients treated with fingolimod for 6 months or more. We estimated annualised relapse rates (ARR) before, during and after treatment. We estimated overall ARRs and ARRs stratified by disease activity before discontinuation. We calculated the proportion of patients with a higher clinical disease activity after discontinuation than before treatment start. Finally, we analysed the association between variables at discontinuation and time to first relapse after discontinuation.

RESULTS

The ARR 3 months after discontinuation (ARR=0.56; 95% CI=0.47 to 0.66) was statistically significantly lower (p<0.01) than the ARR 1 year before treatment (ARR=0.74; 95% CI=0.69 to 0.80). Results were similar when repeating analyses in patients with and without disease activity before discontinuation. In total, 124 patients (12.5%) had clinical rebound. Of those, 36 had no disease breakthrough before discontinuation (3.6% of total population). On treatment disease activity (HR=1.98, p<0.01), lower age (HR=0.98, p=0.01) and female sex (HR=1.68, p=0.02) were associated with a higher relapse risk after discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on average ARR levels, there was no evidence of clinical rebound after fingolimod discontinuation. In total, 12.5% of patients had clinical rebound. Only 3.6%, however, had clinical rebound without disease activity before discontinuation. Disease activity before discontinuation, female sex and younger age were statistically significantly associated with a higher relapse risk after discontinuation.

Changes in prognosis of the Danish multiple sclerosis population over time

BACKGROUND

The course of multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to be milder in recent decades.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how time from onset to disability milestones and how demographic and clinical characteristics have changed through subsequent onset cohorts of patients with MS.

METHODS

In the nationwide Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, we have registered all 13,562 Danish patients with onset of MS or clinically isolated syndrome from 1996 through 2020. For the analyses of prognosis, we used all cases with relapsing onset (N = 11,669). After stratification into 5-year onset cohorts, we computed the hazard ratios for disability endpoints for all cohorts having at least 10 years of follow-up and the oldest 1996-2000 onset cohort as reference.

RESULTS

Patients in more recent MS onset cohorts have a shorter diagnostic delay and more of them start disease-modifying treatment within 1 year since diagnosis. The prognosis was better for later onset cohorts. For the 2001-2005 cohort, the hazard ratio for confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4 was 0.85 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.76-0.95) and for confirmed EDSS 6: 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.88). For the more recent 2006-2010 cohort, the corresponding hazard ratios were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62-0.79) and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.50-0.71).

CONCLUSION

We observed a considerable improvement of the prognosis in recent onset cohorts of relapsing-onset MS.

Ocrelizumab treatment in multiple sclerosis: A Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Real-world evidence regarding the effectiveness and safety of ocrelizumab for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) is limited. The aim was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of ocrelizumab treatment for MS in a real-world setting.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted where clinical and magnetic resonance imaging data of MS patients enrolled prospectively in the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry who initiated ocrelizumab treatment between January 2018 and November 2020 were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 1104 patients (85.7% relapsing-remitting MS [RRMS], 8.8% secondary progressive MS [SPMS], 5.5% primary progressive MS [PPMS]) were included, with a median follow-up period of 1.3 years. At baseline, the mean age was 41.4 years in the RRMS group, 44.5 years in the PPMS group and 50.3 years in the SPMS group. Median Expanded Disability Status Scale score was 2.5, 3.5 and 5.5, respectively. Most RRMS and SPMS patients had received previous disease-modifying therapies (87.5% and 91.8%, respectively), whereas PPMS patients were mostly treatment naïve (78.7%). After ocrelizumab initiation, 9.3% of the patients experienced a relapse and 8.7% a 24 weeks confirmed disability worsening. Conversely, 16.7% showed a 24 weeks confirmed disability improvement. After ~1 year of treatment, most patients (94.5%) were free of magnetic resonance imaging activity. Ocrelizumab was generally well tolerated, as side effects were only reported for 10% of patients, mostly consisting of infusion-related reactions and infections.

CONCLUSIONS

It is shown that most MS patients treated with ocrelizumab are clinically stabilized and with an adverse event profile consistent with the experience from the pivotal clinical trials.

Ant cuticular hydrocarbons are heritable and associated with variation in colony productivity

In social insects, cuticular hydrocarbons function in nest-mate recognition and also provide a waxy barrier against desiccation, but basic evolutionary features, including the heritability of hydrocarbon profiles and how they are shaped by natural selection are largely unknown. We used a new pharaoh ant (Monomorium pharaonis) laboratory mapping population to estimate the heritability of individual cuticular hydrocarbons, genetic correlations between hydrocarbons, and fitness consequences of phenotypic variation in the hydrocarbons. Individual hydrocarbons had low to moderate estimated heritability, indicating that some compounds provide more information about genetic relatedness and can also better respond to natural selection. Strong genetic correlations between compounds are likely to constrain independent evolutionary trajectories, which is expected, given that many hydrocarbons share biosynthetic pathways. Variation in cuticular hydrocarbons was associated with variation in colony productivity, with some hydrocarbons experiencing strong directional selection. Altogether, this study builds on our knowledge of the genetic architecture of the social insect hydrocarbon profile and indicates that hydrocarbon variation is shaped by natural selection.

Deviance-Aware Discovery of High-Quality Process Models

Process Discovery techniques, allowing to extract graph-like models from large process logs, are a valuable mean for grasping a summarized view of real business processes’ behaviors. If augmented with statistics on process performances (e.g., processing times), such models help study the evolution of process performances across different processing steps, and possibly detect bottlenecks and worst practices. However, when the process analyzed exhibits complex and heterogeneous behaviors, these techniques fail to yield good quality models, in terms of readability, accuracy and generality. In particular, the presence of deviant traces may lead to cumbersome models and misleading performance statistics. Current noise/outlier filtering solutions can alleviate this problem and help discover a better model for “normal” process executions, but they do not provide insight on the deviant ones. Then, difficult and expensive analyses are usually performed to extract interpretable and general enough patterns for deviant behaviors. The performance-oriented discovery approach proposed here is addressed to recognize and describe both a normal execution scenario and deviant ones for the process analyzed, by inducing different sub-models: (i) a collection of readable clustering rules (conjunctive patterns over trace attributes) defining the deviance scenarios; (ii) a performance model [Formula: see text] for the “normal” traces that do not fall in any deviant scenario; and (iii) a performance model (and a “difference” model emphasizing the differences in behaviors from the “normal” execution scenario), for each discovered deviance scenario. Technically, these models are discovered by exploiting a conceptual clustering method, embedded in an iterative optimization scheme where the current version of [Formula: see text] is replaced with the model extracted from the newly found normality cluster, in case the latter is more accurate than [Formula: see text]; on the other hand, the clustering procedure is devised to greedily find groups of traces that maximally deviate from [Formula: see text]. Tests on real-life logs confirmed the validity of this approach, and its capability to find good performance models, and to support the analysis of deviant process instances.

A Robust and Versatile Multi-View Learning Framework for the Detection of Deviant Business Process Instances

Increasing attention has been paid to the detection and analysis of “deviant” instances of a business process that are connected with some kind of “hidden” undesired behavior (e.g. frauds and faults). In particular, several recent works faced the problem of inducing a binary classification model (here named deviance detection model ) that can discriminate between deviant traces and normal ones, based on a set of historical log traces (labeled as either deviant or normal). Current solutions rely on applying standard classifier-induction methods to a feature-based representation of the given traces, where the features include sequence-based patterns extracted from the corresponding sequences of activities. However, there is no consensus on which kinds of patterns are the most suitable for such a task. On the other hand, mixing multiple pattern families together may produce a heterogenous, redundant and sparse representation of the traces that likely leads to poor deviance detection models. In this paper, we propose an ensemble-learning method for solving this problem, where multiple base classifiers are trained on different feature-based views of the log (each obtained by mapping the traces onto a distinguished collection of patterns). A stacking procedure is used to combine the discovered base models into an overall probabilistic model that associates any new trace with an estimate of the probability that it reflects a deviant process instance. This helps the analyst prioritize the inspection of the cases that are more likely to be deviant. The method also takes advantage of all nonstructural data available in the log, and employs a resampling mechanism to deal with the rarity of deviances in the training log. It has been conceived as the core of a comprehensive framework for detecting and analyzing business process deviances. The framework supports the analyst to investigate suspect deviances, and provides some feedback to the learning method for improving the accuracy of the discovered deviance detection models. Tests on several real-life datasets proved the validity of the approach, as concerns its capability to discover an accurate deviance detection model, and to effectively exploit new (originally unlabeled) traces via active learning and self-training mechanisms.

Artificial selection on ant female caste ratio uncovers a link between female-biased sex ratios and infection by Wolbachia endosymbionts

Social insect sex and caste ratios are well-studied targets of evolutionary conflicts, but the heritable factors affecting these traits remain unknown. To elucidate these factors, we carried out a short-term artificial selection study on female caste ratio in the ant Monomorium pharaonis. Across three generations of bidirectional selection, we observed no response for caste ratio, but sex ratios rapidly became more female-biased in the two replicate high selection lines and less female-biased in the two replicate low selection lines. We hypothesized that this rapid divergence for sex ratio was caused by changes in the frequency of infection by the heritable bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia, because the initial breeding stock varied for Wolbachia infection, and Wolbachia is known to cause female-biased sex ratios in other insects. Consistent with this hypothesis, the proportions of Wolbachia-infected colonies in the selection lines changed rapidly, mirroring the sex ratio changes. Moreover, the estimated effect of Wolbachia on sex ratio (~13% female bias) was similar in colonies before and during artificial selection, indicating that this Wolbachia effect is likely independent of the effects of artificial selection on other heritable factors. Our study provides evidence for the first case of endosymbiont sex ratio manipulation in a social insect.

Comparative transcriptomics reveals the conserved building blocks involved in parallel evolution of diverse phenotypic traits in ants

BACKGROUND

Reproductive division of labor in eusocial insects is a striking example of a shared genetic background giving rise to alternative phenotypes, namely queen and worker castes. Queen and worker phenotypes play major roles in the evolution of eusocial insects. Their behavior, morphology and physiology underpin many ecologically relevant colony-level traits, which evolved in parallel in multiple species.

RESULTS

Using queen and worker transcriptomic data from 16 ant species we tested the hypothesis that conserved sets of genes are involved in ant reproductive division of labor. We further hypothesized that such sets of genes should also be involved in the parallel evolution of other key traits. We applied weighted gene co-expression network analysis, which clusters co-expressed genes into modules, whose expression levels can be summarized by their 'eigengenes'. Eigengenes of most modules were correlated with phenotypic differentiation between queens and workers. Furthermore, eigengenes of some modules were correlated with repeated evolution of key phenotypes such as complete worker sterility, the number of queens per colony, and even invasiveness. Finally, connectivity and expression levels of genes within the co-expressed network were strongly associated with the strength of selection. Although caste-associated sets of genes evolve faster than non-caste-associated, we found no evidence for queen- or worker-associated co-expressed genes evolving faster than one another.

CONCLUSIONS

These results identify conserved functionally important genomic units that likely serve as building blocks of phenotypic innovation, and allow the remarkable breadth of parallel evolution seen in ants, and possibly other eusocial insects as well.

Ant colonies prefer infected over uninfected nest sites

During colony relocation, the selection of a new nest involves exploration and assessment of potential sites followed by colony movement on the basis of a collective decision making process. Hygiene and pathogen load of the potential nest sites are factors worker scouts might evaluate, given the high risk of epidemics in group-living animals. Choosing nest sites free of pathogens is hypothesized to be highly efficient in invasive ants as each of their introduced populations is often an open network of nests exchanging individuals (unicolonial) with frequent relocation into new nest sites and low genetic diversity, likely making these species particularly vulnerable to parasites and diseases. We investigated the nest site preference of the invasive pharaoh ant, Monomorium pharaonis, through binary choice tests between three nest types: nests containing dead nestmates overgrown with sporulating mycelium of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium brunneum (infected nests), nests containing nestmates killed by freezing (uninfected nests), and empty nests. In contrast to the expectation pharaoh ant colonies preferentially (84%) moved into the infected nest when presented with the choice of an infected and an uninfected nest. The ants had an intermediate preference for empty nests. Pharaoh ants display an overall preference for infected nests during colony relocation. While we cannot rule out that the ants are actually manipulated by the pathogen, we propose that this preference might be an adaptive strategy by the host to “immunize” the colony against future exposure to the same pathogenic fungus.

The chemical basis of host nest detection and chemical integration in a cuckoo paper wasp

Insect social life is governed by chemicals. A great number of studies have demonstrated that the blend of hydrocarbons present on the cuticle (CHCs) plays a pivotal role in intra- and inter-specific communication. It is not surprising, therefore, that social parasites, specialized in exploiting the costly parental care provided by host workers, exploit the host chemical communication system too. Throughout their life cycle, social parasites intercept and break this CHC-based code. Recently, however, several polar compounds (mainly peptides) have been found in addition to CHCs both on the cuticle and on the comb surface of social insects, and their semiochemical role has been demonstrated in some circumstances. In the present study, we used the paper wasp social parasite-host system Polistes sulcifer (Zimmerman)-Polistes dominulus (Christ) to evaluate the relative importance of the CHCs and polar compounds in two different steps of the host exploitation process: host nest detection by the pre-usurping parasite and parasite chemical integration into the host colony. After separating the polar and apolar fractions of the host nest as well as those of pre- and post-usurpation parasites, we carried out laboratory assays based on the binary choice model. Our results show that nest polar compounds neither are used by the parasite to detect the host's nest nor play a role in parasite chemical integration into the host colony. In contrast, we demonstrate that CHCs are fundamental in both steps, thus confirming their primary role in social insect life and consequently in social parasite-host interactions.