From a microscopic solution to a continuum description of active particles with a recoil interaction in one dimension

We consider a model system of persistent random walkers that can jam, pass through each other, or jump apart (recoil) on contact. In a continuum limit, where particle motion between stochastic changes in direction becomes deterministic, we find that the stationary interparticle distribution functions are governed by an inhomogeneous fourth-order differential equation. Our main focus is on determining the boundary conditions that these distribution functions should satisfy. We find that these do not arise naturally from physical considerations, but they need to be carefully matched to functional forms that arise from the analysis of an underlying discrete process. The interparticle distribution functions, or their first derivatives, are generically found to be discontinuous at the boundaries.

Statistical mechanics of a single active slider on a fluctuating interface

We study the statistical mechanics of a single active slider on a fluctuating interface, by means of numerical simulations and theoretical arguments. The slider, which moves by definition towards the interface minima, is active as it also stimulates growth of the interface. Even though such a particle has no counterpart in thermodynamic systems, active sliders may provide a simple model for ATP-dependent membrane proteins that activate cytoskeletal growth. We find a wide range of dynamical regimes according to the ratio between the timescales associated with the slider motion and the interface relaxation. If the interface dynamics is slow, the slider behaves like a random walker in a random environment, which, furthermore, is able to escape environmental troughs by making them grow. This results in different dynamic exponents to the interface and the particle: the former behaves as an Edward-Wilkinson surface with dynamic exponent 2, whereas the latter has dynamic exponent 3/2. When the interface is fast, we get sustained ballistic motion with the particle surfing a membrane wave created by itself. However, if the interface relaxes immediately (i.e., it is infinitely fast), particle motion becomes symmetric and goes back to diffusive. Due to such a rich phenomenology, we propose the active slider as a toy model of fundamental interest in the field of active membranes and, generally, whenever the system constituent can alter the environment by spending energy.

Width Scaling of an Interface Constrained by a Membrane

We investigate the shape of a growing interface in the presence of an impenetrable moving membrane. The two distinct geometrical arrangements of the interface and membrane, obtained by placing the membrane behind or ahead of the interface, are not symmetrically related. On the basis of numerical results and an exact calculation, we argue that these two arrangements represent two distinct universality classes for interfacial growth: while the well-established Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) growth is obtained in the "ahead" arrangement, we find an arrested KPZ growth with a smaller roughness exponent in the "behind" arrangement. This suggests that the surface properties of growing cell membranes and expanding bacterial colonies, for example, are fundamentally distinct.

Active Growth and Pattern Formation in Membrane-Protein Systems

Inspired by recent experimental observations of patterning at the membrane of a living cell, we propose a generic model for the dynamics of a fluctuating interface driven by particlelike inclusions which stimulate its growth. We find that the coupling between interfacial and inclusions dynamics yields microphase separation and the self-organization of traveling waves. These patterns are strikingly similar to those detected in experiments on biological membranes. Our results further show that the active growth kinetics do not fall into the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class for growing interfaces, displaying instead a novel superposition of scaling and sustained oscillations.

A study of the neuropathy associated with transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR) in the UK

BACKGROUND

Hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR) is usually characterised by a progressive peripheral and autonomic neuropathy often with associated cardiac failure and is due to dominantly inherited transthyretin mutations causing accelerated amyloid deposition. The UK population is unique in that the majority of patients have the T60A missense mutation in ATTR where tyrosine is replaced by adenine at position 60. This has been traced to a single founder mutation from north-west Ireland. The neuropathy phenotype is less well described than the cardiac manifestations in this group.

METHODS

We present the findings from an observational cohort study of patients with ATTR attending the National Hospital Inherited Neuropathy Clinic between 2009 and 2013. Detailed clinical neurological and electrophysiological data were collected on all patients alongside correlating autonomic and cardiac assessments. Follow-up data were available on a subset.

RESULTS

Forty-four patients with genetically confirmed ATTR were assessed; 37 were symptomatic; mean age at onset=62 years, range=38-75 years; 75.7% male. T60A was the most common mutation (17/37), followed by V30M (5/37). A severe, rapidly progressive, predominantly length dependent axonal sensorimotor neuropathy was the predominant phenotype. T60A patients were distinguished by earlier and more frequent association with carpal tunnel syndrome; a predominance of negative sensory symptoms at onset; significant vibration deficits; and a non-length dependent progression of motor deficit. Progression of the neuropathy was observed over a relatively short follow-up period (2 years) in 20 patients with evidence of clinically measurable annual change in Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score (-1.5 points per year) and Charcot Marie Tooth Neuropathy Score (CMTNS:2.7 points per year), and a congruent trend in the electrophysiological measures used.

CONCLUSION

The description of the ATTR neuropathy phenotype, especially in the T60A patients, should aid early diagnosis as well as contribute to the understanding of its natural history.

Jamming and Attraction of Interacting Run-and-Tumble Random Walkers

We study a model of bacterial dynamics where two interacting random walkers perform run-and-tumble motion on a one-dimensional lattice under mutual exclusion and find an exact expression for the probability distribution in the steady state. This stationary distribution has a rich structure comprising three components: a jammed component, where the particles are adjacent and block each other; an attractive component, where the probability distribution for the distance between particles decays exponentially; and an extended component in which the distance between particles is uniformly distributed. The attraction between the particles is sufficiently strong that even in the limit where continuous space is recovered for a finite system, the two walkers spend a finite fraction of time in a jammed configuration. Our results potentially provide a route to understanding the motility-induced phase separation characteristic of active matter from a microscopic perspective.

Modelling the effect of myosin X motors on filopodia growth

We present a numerical simulation study of the dynamics of filopodial growth in the presence of active transport by myosin X motors. We employ both a microscopic agent-based model, which captures the stochasticity of the growth process, and a continuum mean-field theory which neglects fluctuations. We show that in the absence of motors, filopodia growth is overestimated by the continuum mean-field theory. Thus fluctuations slow down the growth, especially when the protrusions are driven by a small number (10 or less) of F-actin fibres, and when the force opposing growth (coming from membrane elasticity) is large enough. We also show that, with typical parameter values for eukaryotic cells, motors are unlikely to provide an actin transport mechanism which enhances filopodial size significantly, unless the G-actin concentration within the filopodium greatly exceeds that of the cytosol bulk. We explain these observations in terms of order-of-magnitude estimates of diffusion-induced and advection-induced growth of a bundle of Brownian ratchets.

The public health response to the re-emergence of syphilis in Wales, UK

During the 1990s, cases of infectious syphilis were uncommon in Wales. In 2002, an outbreak occurred in a sexual network of men who have sex with men (MSM) attending a sauna. A multidisciplinary outbreak control team was convened to raise awareness of the outbreak among MSM and health professionals, assess the extent of outbreak, and initiate surveillance measures. It is likely that early intensive control efforts dampened the epidemic curve. However, since 2006 the number of cases has increased steadily to a peak of four cases per 100,000 population in 2008. The majority of cases continue to occur in MSM (81% in 2009) and in those attending genitourinary (GU) medicine clinics in south east Wales (76%). Traditional sexual networks such as saunas, bars/clubs and cruising grounds remain frequently reported, but Internet-based networks are assuming increasing importance. Public health interventions have been sustained, using traditional partner notification, health promotion initiatives, and more innovative Internet network tracing methods.

Two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Wales--the possible impact of media coverage on consultation rates, April-December 2009

In the United Kingdom, the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic had a distinct two-wave pattern of general practice consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI). We describe the epidemiology of the influenza pandemic in Wales between April and December 2009 using integrated data from a number of independent sources: GP surveillance, community virology surveillance, hospital admissions and deaths, and media enquiries monitoring. The first wave peaked in late July at 100 consultations per 100,000 general practice population and attracted intensive media coverage. The positivity rate for the A(H1N1)2009 influenza did not exceed 25% and only 44 hospitalisations and one death were recorded. By contrast, the second wave peaked in late October and although characterised by lower ILI consultation rates (65 consultations per 100,000 general practice population) and low profile media activity, was associated with much higher positivity rates for pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 (60%) and substantially more hospital admissions (n=379) and deaths (n=26). The large number of ILI-related consultations during the first wave in Wales probably reflected the intensive media activity rather than influenza virus circulating in the community. Data from community surveillance schemes may therefore have considerably overestimated the true incidence of influenza. This has implications for the future interpretation of ILI surveillance data and their use in policy making, and underlines the importance of using integrated epidemiological, virological and hospital surveillance data to monitor influenza activity.

Two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 in Wales – the possible impact of media coverage on consultation rates, April – December 2009

In the United Kingdom, the influenza A(H1N1)2009 pandemic had a distinct two-wave pattern of general practice consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI). We describe the epidemiology of the influenza pandemic in Wales between April and December 2009 using integrated data from a number of independent sources: GP surveillance, community virology surveillance, hospital admissions and deaths, and media enquiries monitoring. The first wave peaked in late July at 100 consultations per 100,000 general practice population and attracted intensive media coverage. The positivity rate for the A(H1N1)2009 influenza did not exceed 25% and only 44 hospitalisations and one death were recorded. By contrast, the second wave peaked in late October and although characterised by lower ILI consultation rates (65 consultations per 100,000 general practice population) and low profile media activity, was associated with much higher positivity rates for pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 (60%) and substantially more hospital admissions (n=379) and deaths (n=26). The large number of ILI-related consultations during the first wave in Wales probably reflected the intensive media activity rather than influenza virus circulating in the community. Data from community surveillance schemes may therefore have considerably overestimated the true incidence of influenza. This has implications for the future interpretation of ILI surveillance data and their use in policy making, and underlines the importance of using integrated epidemiological, virological and hospital surveillance data to monitor influenza activity.

A community outbreak of Legionnaires' disease in South Wales, August-September 2010

During August and September 2010, an outbreak comprising 22 cases of Legionnaires' disease was identified by the public health service in Wales. The cases are distributed over a wide geographical area in South East Wales. There are two space-time clusters centred on the upper Rhymney Valley and the lower Cynon Valley respectively. Epidemiological investigations are compatible with cooling towers in each location as the potential source, but environmental inspections were satisfactory and microbiological investigations are inconclusive.

Female Cape sugarbirds (Promerops cafer) modify egg investment both for extra-pair mates and for male tail length

The differential allocation hypothesis predicts that females should invest more in reproduction when paired with attractive males. We measured egg volume in Cape sugarbirds (Promerops cafer), a sexually dimorphic passerine, in relation to paternity of the offspring and in response to an experimental tail length treatment. We manipulated tail length, after pair formation, but before egg laying: males had their tails either shortened or left unmanipulated. Our manipulation was designed to affect female allocation in a particular breeding attempt rather than long-term mate choice: males with shortened tails would appear to be signalling at a lower level than they should given their quality. We found that egg volume was smaller in the nests of males with experimentally shortened tails but larger when the offspring were the result of extra-pair matings. Both these findings are consistent with the differential allocation hypothesis. We suggest that tail length may be used by females as a cue for mate quality, eliciting reduced female investment when breeding with social mates; and with males with shortened tails.

Sexual selection and condition-dependence

The handicap theory of sexual selection suggests that females prefer mates who display extravagant ornaments that advertise their quality or condition. It is often assumed that as such ornamental traits undergo sexually-selected exaggeration, they must inevitably become more sensitive to condition, and thus more informative. Here, we show that this is not necessarily the case. Depending on the precise form of the relationship between trait size and cost, expression may become more or less condition-dependent as the trait undergoes exaggeration, or may remain unchanged. This leads us to question how much of the information content of sexual signals can be attributed to sexual selection, and how much to pre-existing, naturally-selected condition-dependence.

A genome screen of 35 bipolar affective disorder pedigrees provides significant evidence for a susceptibility locus on chromosome 15q25-26

Bipolar affective disorder is a heritable, relatively common, severe mood disorder with lifetime prevalence up to 4%. We report the results of a genome-wide linkage analysis conducted on a cohort of 35 Australian bipolar disorder families which identified evidence of significant linkage on chromosome 15q25-26 and suggestive evidence of linkage on chromosomes 4q, 6q and 13q. Subsequent fine-mapping of the chromosome 15q markers, using allele frequencies calculated from our cohort, gave significant results with a maximum two-point LOD score of 3.38 and multipoint LOD score of 4.58 for marker D15S130. Haplotype analysis based on pedigree-specific, identical-by-descent allele sharing, supported the location of a bipolar susceptibility gene within the Z(max-1) linkage confidence interval of 17 cM, or 6.2 Mb, between markers D15S979 and D15S816. Non-parametric and affecteds-only linkage analysis further verified the linkage signal in this region. A maximum NPL score of 3.38 (P=0.0008) obtained at 107.16 cM (near D15S130), and a maximum two-point LOD score of 2.97 obtained at marker D15S1004 (affecteds only), support the original genome-wide findings on chromosome 15q. These results are consistent with four independent positive linkage studies of mood and psychotic disorders, and raise the possibility that a common gene for susceptibility to bipolar disorder, and other psychiatric disorders may lie in this chromosome 15q25-26 region.

Tuberculosis in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland

AIMS

To describe the clinical features, diagnosis and management of children with tuberculosis in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.

METHODS

Cases of culture-confirmed and clinically diagnosed tuberculosis were reported to the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit from December 2003 to January 2005.

RESULTS

385 eligible cases were reported. Pulmonary disease was present in 154 (40%) children. Just over half (197, 51%) of children presented clinically and most of the remainder (166, 43%) at contact tracing. A probable source case was identified for 73/197 (36%) of the children presenting clinically. The majority (253, 66%) of children had a microbiological and/or histological investigation, and culture results were available for 240 (62%), of whom 102 (26%) were culture positive. Drug resistance was reported in 15 (0.4%) cases. 44% (128/292) of non-white children did not receive the recommended quadruple drug therapy. Seven children died. Only 57% (217) of children were managed by a paediatric subspecialist in respiratory or infectious diseases or a general paediatrician with a special interest in one of these areas. Fewer than five cases were reported from 119/143 (83%) respondents and 72 of 96 (75%) centres.

CONCLUSIONS

Many paediatricians and centres see few children with tuberculosis. This may affect adherence to national guidelines. Managed clinical networks for children with tuberculosis may improve management and should be the standard of care.

Nonequilibrium phase transitions in the extraction of membrane tubes by molecular motors

The extraction of membrane tubes by molecular motors is known to play an important role for the transport properties of eukaryotic cells. By studying a generic class of models for the tube extraction, we discover a rich phase diagram. In particular we show that the density of motors along the tube can exhibit shocks, inverse shocks, and plateaux, depending on parameters which could in principle be probed experimentally. In addition the phase diagram exhibits interesting reentrant behavior.

An evaluation of the completeness of reporting of childhood tuberculosis

The sensitivity of the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance (ETS) scheme for monitoring tuberculosis in children is unknown. We used the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit (BPSU) reporting scheme to conduct a prospective observational study of tuberculosis in children aged <16 yrs in the UK. Reported cases were then matched with records from the ETS database. A total of 320 cases were reported to the BPSU between January and December 2004. We estimated that there were 557 paediatric cases in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2004: 222 (40%) cases reported to both BPSU and ETS, 98 (18%) reported to BPSU but not ETS and 237 (42%) reported to ETS but not BPSU. Children aged <5 yrs were significantly less likely to be reported to ETS compared with older children (p<0.01). There is substantial under-reporting of childhood tuberculosis, especially of children aged <5 yrs. ETS provides a representative picture of the demographics but may miss approximately 20% of cases. This should be taken into account when planning training and resource requirements for tuberculosis. Increased efforts are needed to ensure that all paediatric cases are reported to ETS.

Nonequilibrium phase transition in the sedimentation of reproducing particles

We study numerically and analytically the dynamics of a sedimenting suspension of active, reproducing particles, such as growing bacteria in a gravitational field. In steady state we find a nonequilibrium phase transition between a "sedimentation" regime, analogous to the sedimentation equilibrium of passive colloids, and a "uniform" regime, in which the particle density is constant in all but the top and bottom of the sample. We discuss the importance of fluctuations in particle density in locating the phase-transition point, and report the kinetics of sedimentation at early times.

Pre-exercise hypervolaemia is not detrimental to arterial oxygenation of horses performing a prolonged exercise protocol simulating the second day of a 3-day equestrian event

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY

Hyperhydration, prior to prolonged moderate-intensity exercise simulating the 2nd day of a 3-day equestrian event (E3DEC), may induce arterial hypoxaemia detrimental to performance.

OBJECTIVES

Because moderate-intensity exercise does not induce arterial hypoxaemia in healthy horses, the effects of pre-exercise hypervolaemia on arterial oxygenation were examined during a prolonged exercise protocol.

METHODS

Blood-gas studies were carried out on 7 healthy, exercise-trained Thoroughbred horses in control and hyperhydration experiments. The study conformed to a randomised crossover design. The sequence of treatments was randomised for each horse and 7 days were allowed between studies. Hyperhydration was induced by administering 0.425 g/kg bwt NaCl via nasogastric tube followed by free access to water. The exercise protocol was carried out on a treadmill set at a 3% uphill grade and consisted of walking at 2 m/sec for 2 min, trotting for 10 min at 3.7 m/sec, galloping for 2 min at 14 m/sec (which elicited maximal heart rate), trotting for 20 min at 3.7 m/sec, walking for 10 min at 1.8 m/sec, cantering for 8 min at 9.2 m/sec, trotting for 1 min at 5 m/sec and walking for 5 min at 2 m/sec.

RESULTS

NaCl administration induced a significant mean +/- s.e. 15.5 +/- 1.1% increase in plasma volume as indicated by a significant reduction in plasma protein concentration. In either treatment, whereas arterial hypoxaemia was not observed during periods of submaximal exercise, short-term maximal exertion caused significant arterial hypoxaemia, desaturation of haemoglobin, hypercapnoea, and acidosis in both treatments. However, the magnitude of exercise-induced arterial hypoxaemia, desaturation of haemoglobin, hypercapnoea, and acidosis in both treatments remained similar, and statistically significant differences between treatments could not be demonstrated.

CONCLUSIONS

It was concluded that significant pre-exercise expansion of plasma volume by this method does not adversely affect the arterial oxygenation of horses performing a prolonged exercise protocol simulating the 2nd day of an E3DEC.

Model of hyphal tip growth involving microtubule-based transport

We propose a simple model for mass transport within a fungal hypha and its subsequent growth. Inspired by the role of microtubule-transported vesicles, we embody the internal dynamics of mass inside a hypha with mutually excluding particles progressing stochastically along a growing one-dimensional lattice. The connection between long-range transport of materials for growth and the resulting extension of the hyphal tip has not previously been addressed in the modeling literature to our knowledge. We derive and analyze mean-field equations for the model and present a phase diagram of its steady-state behavior, which we compare to simulations. We discuss our results in the context of the filamentous fungus Neurospora crassa.

Active surveillance for tuberculosis in Wales: 1996-2003

AIMS

To estimate the incidence of active tuberculosis (TB) and study the use of chemoprophylaxis for latent TB in children in Wales, and to identify potential areas for improving prevention and management.

METHODS

Active surveillance for TB in children aged 0-15 years from July 1996 to December 2003, using the Welsh Paediatric Surveillance Scheme.

RESULTS

A total of 232 children, 102 with active TB (2.3 per 100 000) and 130 with latent TB (2.9 per 100 000), were identified. Nearly half (45%) belonged to ethnic minorities (19% were of black African origin), a much higher proportion than the base population. Pulmonary disease was the most common presentation (47%), including six (9%) children who were sputum smear positive. There were 10 cases of disseminated TB, nearly all in white children under 10 years of age. Less than two thirds of eligible children (27/46, 59%) were known to have received BCG immunisation. The source of infection was an adult household contact in most cases, but was not known in 44 cases, particularly among teenagers. Four community outbreaks occurred during the surveillance period, including three in high schools.

CONCLUSION

TB incidence in children in Wales remains low, but the epidemiology is changing with an increasing proportion of cases in black African children. The high proportion of patients with disseminated TB is of particular concern. TB in teenagers was often associated with school outbreaks. Many eligible children do not receive BCG immunisation, indicating further scope for prevention.

Using facsimile cascade to assist case searching during a Q fever outbreak

In September 2002, facsimiles were sent to 360 primary-care physicians alerting them to a local outbreak of Q fever. The physicians subsequently submitted serology samples on significantly more patients than in a previously comparable period in 2001. Facsimile cascade assists effective communication with primary-care physicians in an outbreak investigation.

Interaction-driven real-space condensation

We study real-space condensation in a broad class of stochastic mass transport models. We show that the steady state of such models has a pair-factorized form which generalizes the standard factorized steady states. The condensation in this class of models is driven by interactions which give rise to a spatially extended condensate that differs fundamentally from the previously studied examples. We present numerical results as well as a theoretical analysis of the condensation transition and show that the criterion for condensation is related to the binding-unbinding transition of solid-on-solid interfaces.

Listeria outbreak associated with sandwich consumption from a hospital retail shop, United Kingdom

An outbreak of listeriosis occurred in the Swindon area of the UK in autumn 2003. Five cases were detected in pregnant women. Four of these women were thought to have eaten prepacked sandwiches from a retail outlet in one particular hospital. Sampling at the supplier detected Listeria monocytogenes, which was indistinguishable on molecular testing from the patients’ isolates. Recent changes in UK food legislation should help diminish the risk of further outbreaks/cases such as ours occurring.

Hyperhydration prior to a simulated second day of the 3-day moderate intensity equestrian competition does not cause arterial hypoxemia in Thoroughbred horses

Dehydration and the associated impairment of cardiovascular and thermoregulatory function comprise major veterinary problems in horses performing prolonged exercise, particularly under hot and humid conditions. For these reasons, there is considerable interest in using pre-exercise hyperhydration to help maintain blood volume in the face of the excessive fluid loss associated with sweat production during prolonged exertion. However, recently it was reported that pre-exercise hyperhydration causes arterial hypoxemia in horses performing moderate intensity exercise simulating the second day of an equestrian 3-day event competition (E3DEC) which may adversely affect performance (Sosa Leon et al. in Equine Vet J Suppl 34:425-429, 2002). These findings are contrary to data from horses performing short-term maximal exertion, wherein hyperhydration did not affect arterial O2 tension/saturation. Thus, our objective in the present study was to examine the impact of pre-exercise hyperhydration on arterial oxygenation of Thoroughbred horses performing an exercise test simulating the second day of an E3DEC. Control and hyperhydration studies were carried out on seven healthy Thoroughbred horses in random order, 7 days apart. In the control study, horses received no medications. In the hyperhydration experiments, nasogastric administration of NaCl (0.425 g/kg) 5 h pre-exercise induced a plasma volume expansion of 10.9% at the initiation of exercise. This methodology for inducing hypervolemia was different from that of Sosa Leon et al. (2002). Blood-gas tensions/pH as well as plasma protein, hemoglobin and blood lactate concentrations were measured pre-exercise and during the exercise test. Our data revealed that pre-exercise hyperhydration neither adversely affected arterial O2 tension nor hemoglobin-O2 saturation at any time during the exercise test simulating the second day of an E3DEC. Further, it was observed that arterial blood CO2 tension, pH, and blood lactate concentrations also were not affected by pre-exercise hyperhydration. However, hemodilution in hyperhydrated horses caused an attenuation of the expansion in the arterial to mixed-venous blood O2 content gradient during phases B and D of the exercise protocol, which was likely offset by an increase in cardiac output. It is concluded that pre-exercise hyperhydration of horses induced in the manner described above is not detrimental to arterial oxygenation of horses performing an exercise test simulating the second day of an E3DEC.

Flocking regimes in a simple lattice model

We study a one-dimensional lattice flocking model incorporating all three of the flocking criteria proposed by Reynolds [Computer Graphics 21, 4 (1987)]: alignment, centering, and separation. The model generalizes that introduced by O. J. O'Loan and M. R. Evans [J. Phys. A. 32, L99 (1999)]. We motivate the dynamical rules by microscopic sampling considerations. The model exhibits various flocking regimes: the alternating flock, the homogeneous flock, and dipole structures. We investigate these regimes numerically and within a continuum mean-field theory.

Domestic and travel-related foodborne gastrointestinal illness in a population health survey

Routine surveillance data underestimate incidence of foodborne gastrointestinal (FGI) illness and provide little information on illness related to travel. We analysed data from the Welsh Health Survey to estimate population incidence, and to examine risk factors for FGI and factors associated with consulting a doctor. Reported frequency of any FGI in the 3 months before interview was 20.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.5-20.4; equivalent to 0.8 episodes per person-year], and for travel-related FGI was 1.6% (95% CI 1.5-1.8). In the final model, sex, age group, marital status, self-reported health, long-term illness, smoking and alcohol consumption were all independent predictors of FGI. People who consulted a doctor were likely to be older, in poorer health, taking regular medication, or to report mental illness. FGI is common but risk factors for illness and consultation differ and impressions of the epidemiology of the disease based on surveillance data are therefore distorted.

Condensation transitions in a model for a directed network with weighted links

An exactly solvable model for the rewiring dynamics of weighted, directed networks is introduced. Simulations indicate that the model exhibits two types of condensation: (i) a phase in which, for each node, a finite fraction of its total out-strength condenses onto a single link; (ii) a phase in which a finite fraction of the total weight in the system is directed into a single node. A virtue of the model is that its dynamics can be mapped onto those of a zero-range process with many species of interacting particles--an exactly solvable model of particles hopping between the sites of a lattice. This mapping, which is described in detail, guides the analysis of the steady state of the network model and leads to theoretical predictions for the conditions under which the different types of condensation may be observed. A further advantage of the mapping is that, by exploiting what is known about exactly solvable generalizations of the zero-range process, one can infer a number of generalizations of the network model and dynamics which remain exactly solvable.

Critical phase in nonconserving zero-range processes and rewiring networks

Zero-range processes, in which particles hop between sites on a lattice, are closely related to rewiring networks, in which rewiring of links between nodes takes place. Both systems exhibit a condensation transition for appropriate choices of the dynamical rules. The transition results in a macroscopically occupied site for zero-range processes and a macroscopically connected node for networks. Criticality, characterized by a scale-free distribution, is obtained only at the transition point. This is in contrast with the widespread scale-free complex networks. Here we propose a generalization of these models whereby criticality is obtained throughout an entire phase, and the scale-free distribution does not depend on any fine-tuned parameter.

Nature of the condensate in mass transport models

We study the phenomenon of real space condensation in the steady state of a class of one-dimensional mass transport models. We derive the criterion for the occurrence of a condensation transition and analyze the precise nature of the shape and the size of the condensate in the condensed phase. We find two distinct condensate regimes: one where the condensate is Gaussian distributed and the particle number fluctuations scale normally as L(1/2) where L is the system size, and the second regime where the particle number fluctuations become anomalously large and the condensate peak is non-Gaussian. We interpret these results within the framework of sums of random variables.

The seasonality of human campylobacter infection and Campylobacter isolates from fresh, retail chicken in Wales

Seasonal peaks in both human campylobacter infections and poultry isolates have been observed in several European countries but remain unexplained. We compared weekly data on human campylobacter infections with thermophilic Campylobacter isolation rates from fresh, retail chicken samples (n = 514) purchased weekly in Wales between January and December 2002. Human isolates (n = 2631) peaked between weeks 22 and 25 (early June) and chicken isolates (n = 364) between weeks 24 and 26 (late June). In the absence of a temporal association, we postulate that the seasonal rise in humans is not caused by a rise in isolation rates in poultry but that both are more likely to be associated with a common, but as yet unidentified, environmental source.

Disorder and nonconservation in a driven diffusive system

We consider a disordered asymmetric exclusion process in which randomly chosen sites do not conserve particle number. The model is motivated by features of many interacting molecular motors such as RNA polymerases. We solve the steady state exactly in the two limits of infinite and vanishing nonconserving rates. The first limit is used as an approximation to large but finite rates and allows the study of Griffiths singularities in a nonequilibrium steady state despite the absence of any transition in the pure model. The disorder is also shown to induce a stretched exponential decay of system density with stretching exponent phi=2/5 .

Declining incidence of chickenpox in the absence of universal childhood immunisation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the epidemiology of chickenpox in Wales from 1986 to 2001.

DESIGN

Descriptive analysis of chickenpox consultations reported by the Welsh general practice sentinel surveillance scheme for infectious diseases, compared with annual shingles consultation rates from the same scheme to exclude reporting fatigue and data from a general practice morbidity database to validate results.

SETTING

A total of 226,884 patients registered with one of 30 volunteer general practices participating in the sentinel surveillance scheme.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age standardised and age specific incidence of chickenpox.

RESULTS

Crude and age standardised consultation rates for chickenpox declined from 1986 to 2001, with loss of epidemic cycling. Rates remained stable in 0-4 year olds but declined in all older age groups, particularly those aged 5-14 years. Shingles consultation rates remained constant over the same period. Data from the morbidity database displayed similar trends.

CONCLUSION

General practitioner consultation rates for chickenpox are declining in Wales except in pre-school children. These findings are unlikely to be a reporting artefact but may be explained either by an overall decline in transmission or increased social mixing in those under 5 years old, through formal child care and earlier school entry, and associated increasing rates of mild or subclinical infection in this age group. Further investigation, particularly by serological surveillance, is necessary before universal varicella immunisation can be considered in the UK.

Limits on the evolution of tail ornamentation in birds

In birds, elongated tails are one of the most common and most studied ornaments. However, the tail also has an aerodynamic function, playing a role in turning and slow flight. If a tail is to function as an ornament, then there will be an inevitable conflict between the aerodynamic role and the signaling role. Aerodynamic theory has developed to the point where it is possible to predict the aerodynamic and mechanical consequences of ornamental tails of different sizes and shapes. Tail elongation will influence many different mechanical and aerodynamic parameters. For at least some and possibly all of these parameters, there will be limits that are placed by the bird's anatomy, morphology, or physiology on the extent to which the effect of tail elongation could be tolerated. For example, if a particular tail morphology meant that the power required to fly exceeded the power available from the flight muscles, then the bird would obviously be unable to fly with such a tail. To examine whether these considerations could limit the development of ornamental tails, the effect of long tails of different shapes was examined on three parameters: static balance, lift-to-drag ratio, and the cost of flight. All three of these parameters were found to limit the range of possible tail morphologies that could be developed by birds. These limits were most acute for small birds, which may not be able to operate with a long tail of any shape. Slightly larger birds would be able to develop elongated streamers and forked tails but not pintails or wedge-shaped tails. Medium to large birds are less constrained and could develop a much wider range of tails than small birds, but there will always be limits to the sizes of tail ornament that could be developed. Thus the physical consequences of ornamentation on ecology and behavior are likely to be responsible for some of the patterns of ornamentation observed in nature.

An outreach education and treatment project in Ghana for the early stage of Mycobacterium ulcerans disease

Mycobacterium ulcerans disease starts as a painless, subcutaneous nodule, excision of which prevents the development of large Buruli ulcers. An outreach programme was set up in Ghana to promote nodule recognition and excision. The programme was cost-effective and shifted the pattern of disease presentation. This could from a model for other countries.

Condensation transitions in a two-species zero-range process

We study condensation transitions in the steady state of a zero-range process with two species of particles. The steady state is exactly soluble-it is given by a factorized form provided the dynamics satisfy certain constraints-and we exploit this to derive the phase diagram for a quite general choice of dynamics. This phase diagram contains a variety of mechanisms of condensate formation, and a phase in which the condensate of one of the particle species is sustained by a "weak" condensate of particles of the other species. We also demonstrate how a single particle of one of the species (which plays the role of a defect particle) can induce Bose condensation above a critical density of particles of the other species.

Glassy dynamics in the asymmetrically constrained kinetic Ising chain

We study the dynamics of the East model, comprising a chain of uncoupled spins in a downward-pointing field. Glassy effects arise at low temperatures T from the kinetic constraint that spins can only flip if their left neighbor is up. We give details of our previous solution of the nonequilibrium coarsening dynamics after a quench to low T [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 3238 (1999)], including the anomalous coarsening of down-spin domains with typical size d approximately t(T ln 2), and the pronounced "fragile glass" divergence of equilibration times as t(*)=exp(1/T(2) ln 2). We also link the model to the paste-all coarsening model, defining a family of interpolating models that all have the same scaling distribution of domain sizes. We then proceed to the problem of equilibrium dynamics at low T. Based on a scaling hypothesis for the relation between time scales and length scales, we propose a model for the dynamics of "superdomains" which are bounded by up-spins that are frozen on long time scales. From this we deduce that the equilibrium spin correlation and persistence functions should exhibit identical scaling behavior for low T, decaying as g(t). The scaling variable is t=(t/t(*))(T ln 2), giving strongly stretched behavior for low T. The scaling function g(.) decays faster than exponential, however, and in the limit T-->0 at fixed t reaches zero at a finite value of t.

Shock formation in an exclusion process with creation and annihilation

We investigate shock formation in an asymmetric exclusion process with creation and annihilation of particles in the bulk. We show how the continuum mean-field equations can be studied analytically and hence derive the phase diagrams of the model. In the large system-size limit direct simulations of the model show that the stationary state is correctly described by the mean-field equations, thus the predicted mean-field phase diagrams are expected to be exact. The emergence of shocks and the structure of the phase diagram are discussed. We also analyze the fluctuations of the shock position by using a phenomenological random walk picture of the shock dynamics. The stationary distribution of shock positions is calculated, by virtue of which the numerically determined finite-size scaling behavior of the shock width is explained.

Phase transition in the ABC model

Recent studies have shown that one-dimensional driven systems can exhibit phase separation even if the dynamics is governed by local rules. The ABC model, which comprises three particle species that diffuse asymmetrically around a ring, shows anomalous coarsening into a phase separated steady state. In the limiting case in which the dynamics is symmetric and the parameter q describing the asymmetry tends to one, no phase separation occurs and the steady state of the system is disordered. In the present work, we consider the weak asymmetry regime q=exp(-beta/N), where N is the system size, and study how the disordered state is approached. In the case of equal densities, we find that the system exhibits a second-order phase transition at some nonzero beta(c). The value of beta(c)=2pi square root 3 and the optimal profiles can be obtained by writing the exact large deviation functional. For nonequal densities, we write down mean-field equations and analyze some of their predictions.

Presumed Pseudomonas folliculitis outbreak in children following an outdoor games event

In early summer 2001, an outbreak of atypical rash occurred among children from 24 junior schools who attended an outdoor games event. The event comprised a series of five water games including a water slide, and within 24 hours of attending the event 151/593 (26%) children developed a papulopustular rash. The rash had a characteristic distribution, predominantly over the lower trunk and buttocks, with some involvement of the arms and legs. Pseudomonas aeruginosa was isolated from a water butt used to draw water for the games, and from the tank of a fire engine that supplied the water. Similar outbreaks, due to Pseudomonas folliculitis, have been previously described and in immunocompromised people this can be associated with serious illness. We recommend that superchlorinated water be used for water play events and that care be taken to avoid abrasive surfaces.

An outbreak of viral gastroenteritis following environmental contamination at a concert hall

In January 1999, an outbreak of viral gastroenteritis affected more than 300 people who attended a metropolitan concert hall over a 5-day period. Norwalk-like virus (NLV) was confirmed in faecal samples by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay. The index case was a concert attendee who vomited in the auditorium and adjacent male toilet. Gastrointestinal illness occurred among members of 8/15 school parties who attended the following day. Children who sat on the same level of the auditorium as the index case were much more likely to be ill than those seated elsewhere (relative risk 7.1, 95% confidence interval 5.4-9.2. P < 0.001). The majority of other reported cases had not been present on the evening of the vomiting incident. Disinfection procedure was poor and the disinfectant used contained no sodium hypochlorite. Transmission most likely occurred through direct contact with contaminated fomites. The outbreak has implications for disinfection procedures following vomiting incidents at public venues.

Lee-Yang zeros and phase transitions in nonequilibrium steady states

We consider how the Lee-Yang description of phase transitions in terms of partition function zeros applies to nonequilibrium systems. Here, one does not have a partition function; instead we consider the zeros of a steady-state normalization factor in the complex plane of the transition rates. We obtain the exact distribution of zeros in the thermodynamic limit for a specific model, the boundary-driven asymmetric simple exclusion process. We show that the distributions of zeros at the first- and the second-order nonequilibrium phase transitions of this model follow the patterns known in the Lee-Yang equilibrium theory.

Public health management of an outbreak of group C meningococcal disease in university campus residents

BACKGROUND

Increasing numbers of outbreaks of Group C meningococcal disease in teenagers and young adults led to a new policy in the UK in 1999 of vaccinating all new college students. The largest of these outbreaks involved seven students in one university, six of whom were from one hall of residence, and two of whom died.

METHODS

Control of the outbreak involved close medical surveillance of resident students, mass chemoprophylaxis and vaccination, and wide dissemination of daily information bulletins. Investigation of the epidemiology of the outbreak involved searching for the network of close contacts between cases, a prevalence survey of carriage of meningogocci and a case control study of risk factors for carriage.

RESULTS

Clinical cases could be linked by a discrete network of social contacts within the halls of residence, but the Group C epidemic strain (2a P1.5) was not detected in 454 students (upper 95% confidence interval 0.7%). Carriage of any meningococcal strain (19%) was associated with patronage of the campus bar (OR = 3.0, 0.99-9.1).

CONCLUSION

Important factors in the control of the outbreak were rapid institution of mass chemopropylaxis and immunisation of residents, and involvement of student organizations in the dissemination of information about the disease and its control. The role of campus bars in dissemination of the carriage of meningogocci deserves further investigation.