Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Enhanced active case finding of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Namibia: a protocol for the hotspots, hospitals, and households (H3TB) study

INTRODUCTION

Namibia is a high tuberculosis (TB)-burden country with an estimated incidence of 460/100 000 (around 12 000 cases) per year. Approximately 4.5% of new cases and 7.9% of previously treated TB cases are multidrug resistant (MDR) and 47% of patients with MDR-TB are HIV coinfected. Published data suggest a clustering of MDR-TB transmission in specific areas. Identifying transmission clusters is key to implementing high-yield and cost-effective interventions. This includes knowing the yield of finding TB cases in high-transmission zones (eg, community hotspots, hospitals or households) to deliver community-based interventions. We aim to identify such transmission zones for enhanced case finding and evaluate the effectiveness of this approach.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

H3TB is an observational cross-sectional study evaluating MDR-TB active case finding strategies. Sputum samples from MDR-TB cases in three regions of Namibia will be evaluated by whole genome sequencing (WGS) in addition to routine sputum investigations (Xpert MTB/RIF, culture and drug susceptibility testing). We will collect information on household contacts, use of community spaces and geographical map intersections between participants, synthesising these data to identify transmission hotspots. We will look at the feasibility, acceptability, yield and cost of case finding strategies in these hotspots, and in households of patients with MDR-TB and visitors of hospitalised patients with MDR-TB. A compartmental transmission dynamic model will be constructed to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of the strategies if scaled.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained. Participants will give informed consent. H3TB will capitalise on a partnership with the Ministry of Health and Social Services to follow up individuals diagnosed with MDR-TB and integrate WGS data with innovative contact network mapping, to allow enhanced case finding. Study data will contribute towards a systems approach to TB control. Equally important, it will serve as a role model for similar studies in other high-incidence settings.

A systematic review of risk factors for mortality among tuberculosis patients in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB)-associated mortality in South Africa remains high. This review aimed to systematically assess risk factors associated with death during TB treatment in South African patients.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of TB research articles published between 2010 and 2018. We searched BioMed Central (BMC), PubMed®, EBSCOhost, Cochrane, and SCOPUS for publications between January 2010 and December 2018. Searches were conducted between August 2019 and October 2019. We included randomised control trials (RCTs), case control, cross sectional, retrospective, and prospective cohort studies where TB mortality was a primary endpoint and effect measure estimates were provided for risk factors for TB mortality during TB treatment. Due to heterogeneity in effect measures and risk factors evaluated, a formal meta-analysis of risk factors for TB mortality was not appropriate. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for all studies and for specific subgroups so that these could be compared. Quality assessments were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale or the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool.

RESULTS

We identified 1995 titles for screening, 24 publications met our inclusion criteria (one cross-sectional study, 2 RCTs, and 21 cohort studies). Twenty-two studies reported on adults (n = 12561) and two were restricted to children < 15 years of age (n = 696). The CFR estimated for all studies was 26.4% (CI 18.1-34.7, n = 13257 ); 37.5% (CI 24.8-50.3, n = 5149) for drug-resistant (DR) TB; 12.5% (CI 1.1-23.9, n = 1935) for drug-susceptible (DS) TB; 15.6% (CI 8.1-23.2, n = 6173) for studies in which drug susceptibility was mixed or not specified; 21.3% (CI 15.3-27.3, n = 7375) for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV); 19.2% (CI 7.7-30.7, n = 1691) in HIV-negative TB patients; and 6.8% (CI 4.9-8.7, n = 696) in paediatric studies. The main risk factors associated with TB mortality were HIV infection, prior TB treatment, DR-TB, and lower body weight at TB diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Africa, overall mortality during TB treatment remains high, people with DR-TB have an elevated risk of mortality during TB treatment and interventions to mitigate high mortality are needed. In addition, better prospective data on TB mortality are needed, especially amongst vulnerable sub-populations including young children, adolescents, pregnant women, and people with co-morbidities other than HIV. Limitations included a lack of prospective studies and RCTs and a high degree of heterogeneity in risk factors and comparator variables.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The systematic review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number CRD42018108622. This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Investment ID OPP1173131) via the South African TB Think Tank.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance.

RESULTS

Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register

In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80-0.83). The highest SMR was in 15-24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15-24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.

Mortality in South African Children and Adolescents Routinely Treated for Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death among those <20 years of age. We describe changes in TB mortality among children and adolescents in South Africa over a 13-year period, identify risk factors for mortality, and estimate excess TB-related mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of all patients <20 years of age routinely recorded in the national electronic drug-susceptible TB treatment register (2004-2016). We developed a multivariable Cox regression model for predictors of mortality and used estimates of mortality among the general population to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs).

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2016, 729 463 children and adolescents were recorded on TB treatment; 84.0% had treatment outcomes and 2.5% (18 539) died during TB treatment. The case fatality ratio decreased from 3.3% in 2007 to 1.9% in 2016. In the multivariable Cox regression model, ages 0 to 4, 10 to 14, and 15 to 19 years (compared with ages 5 to 9 years) were associated with increased risk of mortality, as was HIV infection, previous TB treatment, and extrapulmonary involvement. The SMR of 15 to 19-year-old female patients was more than double that of male patients the same age (55.3 vs 26.2). Among 10 to 14-year-olds and those who were HIV-positive, SMRs increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality in South African children and adolescents treated for TB is declining but remains considerable, with 2% dying during 2016. Adolescents (10 to 19 years) and those people living with HIV have the highest risk of mortality and the greatest SMRs. Interventions to reduce mortality during TB treatment, specifically targeting those at highest risk, are urgently needed.

Estimating the magnitude of pulmonary tuberculosis patients missed by primary health care clinics in South Africa

SETTING

The present study was conducted at 20 randomly selected primary health clinics across Buffalo City Metropolitan Health District, a high TB burden district in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion of TB patients missed by primary health clinics.

DESIGN

We enrolled 1255 TB-symptomatic individuals exiting primary health clinics between March and December 2015. Participants were interviewed and asked to provide sputum for Xpert® MTB/RIF testing.

RESULTS

Clinic staff screened 79.1% of participants seeking care for TB-related symptoms and 21.9% of those attending a clinic for other reasons (P < 0.001). Of those screened by clinic staff, 21.5% reported submitting sputum, although only 9.8% had available results. Study staff tested sputum from 779 participants not tested by clinic staff. Of these, 39 (5.0%) individuals tested positive for TB, three of whom were rifampicin-resistant; 15/39 (38.5%) were never screened and 24/39 (61.5%) were screened but not tested by clinic staff. We estimate that the health system missed 62.9-78.5% of TB patients attending primary health clinics for TB-related symptoms and 89.5-100% of those attending a clinic for other reasons.

CONCLUSION

Low rates of TB screening and testing by the health system resulted in missed TB patients. Universal TB screening and testing of symptomatic individuals should be instituted in high TB burden communities in South Africa.

A systematic review of prediction models for prevalent pulmonary tuberculosis in adults

A systematic review was conducted to describe the quality and characteristics of prediction models for prevalent pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in adults at routine TB care settings. A prediction model was defined as the combination of two or more clinical predictors designed to estimate the probability of having TB. Studies using culture-confirmed PTB as reference standard were included. Models for in-patients, children or specific patient populations were excluded. PubMed, Scopus and the Cochrane Library and abstracts from the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, American Thoracic Society and European Respiratory Society conferences were searched. The CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) checklist was used for data extraction and quality assessment. From 13 671 identified records, six were included for data extraction; three assessed smear-negative, culture-positive PTB as outcome and three focused on human immunodeficiency virus infected individuals only. Reporting of model development, performance and evaluation was poor. In four studies, predictive performance was evaluated using the development data set (apparent performance), one study did an internal validation and one study did an external validation. Results were not pooled due to heterogeneity. Existing prediction models for estimating prevalent PTB in adults at primary care level are poorly reported and validated and are not useful for TB screening. The World Health Organization symptom screen is recommended.

Scanty smears associated with initial loss to follow-up in South African tuberculosis patients

BACKGROUND

Smear-positive patients should be started on anti-tuberculosis treatment promptly. However, studies show that up to 38% of diagnosed patients are initial loss to follow-up (LTFU), meaning they do not start treatment after diagnosis. We investigated determinants of initial LTFU at primary health care facilities.

DESIGN

In a facility-matched case-control study, health care facilities were visited from October 2010 to September 2012. After identification from registers, patients were traced and invited to complete a questionnaire.

RESULTS

Of 973 participants, 233 (24%) were cases and 740 (74%) controls. Initial LTFU was associated with smear grade (pooled adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.90, scanty at baseline) for participants identified at facilities, but not with age (overall P = 0.80) or sex (aOR 0.83, 95%CI 0.58-1.20). Of the 233 cases, 197 (85%) were traced in the community, of whom 58 (29%) were found. Among the group found, initial LTFU was associated with age (aOR 3.38, 95%CI 1.15-9.95) and smear grade (aOR 0.08, 95%CI 0.02-0.34, scanty at baseline).

CONCLUSION

Scanty smear positivity was associated with initial LTFU. Tuberculosis programmes should start scanty smear-positive patients on treatment early and develop alternative community tracing strategies. Health care worker training could address the first aspect, and the use of technology to improve treatment initiation, such as mobile phone applications, the second.

Tuberculosis cure rates and the ETR.Net: investigating the quality of reporting treatment outcomes from primary healthcare facilities in Mpumalanga province, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis control programs rely on accurate collection of routine surveillance data to inform program decisions including resource allocation and specific interventions. The electronic TB register (ETR.Net) is dependent on accurate data transcription from both paperbased clinical records and registers at the facilities to report treatment outcome data. The study describes the quality of reporting of TB treatment outcomes from facilities in the Ehlanzeni District, Mpumalanga Province.

METHODS

A descriptive crossectional study of primary healthcare facilities in the district for the period 1 January - 31 December 2010 was performed. New smear positive TB cure rate data was obtained from the ETR.Net followed by verification of paperbased clinical records, both TB folders and the TB register, of 20% of all new smear positive cases across the district for correct reporting to the ETR.Net. Facilities were grouped according to high (>70%) and low cure rates (≤ 70%) as well as high (> 20%) and low (≤ 20%) error proportions in reporting. Kappa statistic was used to determine agreement between paperbased record, TB register and ETR.Net.

RESULTS

Of the100 facilities (951 patient clinical records), 51(51%) had high cure rates and high error proportions, 14(14%) had a high cure rate and low error proportion whereas 30(30%) had low cure rates and high error proportions and five (5%) had a low cure rate with low error proportion. Fair agreement was observed (Kappa = 0.33) overall and between registers. Of the 473 patient clinical records which indicated cured, 383(81%) was correctly captured onto the ETR.Net, whereas 51(10.8%) was incorrectly captured and 39(8.2%) was not captured at all. Over reporting of treatment success of 12% occurred on the ETR.Net.

CONCLUSIONS

The high error proportion in reporting onto the ETR.Net could result in a false sense of improvement in the TB control programme in the Ehlanzeni district.

Patient Diagnostic Rate as Indicator of Tuberculosis Case Detection, South Africa

To address the uncertainty of the indirectly measured tuberculosis case detection rate, we used survey data stratified by HIV status to calculate the patient diagnostic rate, a directly measurable indicator, in 8 communities in South Africa. Rates were lower among HIV-negative than HIV-positive persons. Tuberculosis programs should focus on HIV-negative persons.

Antiretroviral treatment among co-infected tuberculosis patients in integrated and non-integrated facilities

BACKGROUND

South Africa has the second worst tuberculosis-human immunodeficiency virus (TB-HIV) syndemic in the world: in 2011, the TB-HIV co-infection rate was estimated at 65%. Integration of TB and HIV health-care services was implemented to increase antiretroviral treatment (ART) uptake among eligible patients.

AIM

To evaluate whether integrated TB and HIV facilities had better ART uptake among eligible patients compared to non-integrated facilities.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study using routine TB programme data from January to December 2010. ART eligibility was defined as a CD4+ cell count <350 cells/μl.

RESULTS

Respectively 2761 (86.8%) and 3611 (84.7%) patients were eligible for ART at integrated and non-integrated facilities (P < 0.001). The proportion of patients started on ART at integrated facilities did not differ significantly from that of non-integrated facilities (35.9% vs. 37.1%, P = 0.340), but the proportion with unknown HIV status (31.8% vs. 24.5%, P < 0.001) and unknown CD4+ cell count (40.9% vs. 30.4%, P < 0.001) did.

CONCLUSION

Integration of TB and HIV services in the Free State (2009-2010) was not associated with improved ART uptake. The reasons why are not clear. Of concern are the high proportions of unknown HIV status and CD4+ cell count results, especially at integrated facilities, and the small proportion of patients on ART, which may indicate poor implementation of integration.

Factors affecting treatment outcomes in drug-resistant tuberculosis cases in the Northern Cape, South Africa

The Northern Cape Province has low cure rates (21%) for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB). We audited the programme to identify factors affecting treatment outcomes. Cases admitted to two drug-resistant TB units from 2007 to 2009 had data extracted from clinical folders. Unfavourable treatment outcomes were found in 58% of the 272 cases. A multivariable regression analysis found that male sex was associated with unfavourable outcome (P = 0.009). Weight at diagnosis (P < 0.001) and oral drug adherence (P < 0.001) were also associated with an unfavourable outcome; however, injectable drug adherence was not (P = 0.395). Positive baseline smear and human immunodeficiency virus positive status were not associated with unfavourable outcome. Shorter, more patient-friendly regimens may go a long way to improving adherence and outcomes.

Characteristics of clients who access mobile compared to clinic HIV counselling and testing services: a matched study from Cape Town, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Studies within sub-Saharan African countries have shown that mobile services increase uptake of HIV counselling and testing (HCT) services when compared to clinics and are able to access different populations, but these have included provider-initiated HCT in clinics. This study aimed to compare the characteristics of clients who self-initiated HCT at either a mobile or a clinic service in terms of demographic and socio-economic variables, also comparing reasons for accessing a particular health service provider.

METHODS

This study took place in eight areas around Cape Town. A matched design was used with one mobile HCT service matched with one or more clinics (offering routine HCT services) within each of the eight areas. Adult clients who self-referred for an HIV test within a specified time period at either a mobile or clinic service were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected between February and April 2011 using a questionnaire. Summary statistics were calculated for each service type within a matched pair and differences of outcomes from pairs were used to calculate effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

1063 participants enrolled in the study with 511 from mobile and 552 from clinic HCT services. The proportion of males accessing mobile HCT significantly exceeded that of clinic HCT (p < 0.001). The mean age of participants attending mobile HCT was higher than clinic participants (p = 0.023). No significant difference was found for socio-economic variables between participants, with the exception of access to own piped water (p = 0.029). Participants who accessed mobile HCT were significantly more likely to report that they were just passing, deemed an "opportunistic" visit (p = 0.014). Participants who accessed clinics were significantly more likely to report the service being close to home or work (p = 0.035).

CONCLUSIONS

An HCT strategy incorporating a mobile HCT service, has a definite role to play in reaching those population groups who do not typically access HCT services at a clinic, especially males and those who take advantage of the opportunity to test. Mobile HCT services can complement clinic services.

Tuberculosis patients in primary care do not start treatment. What role do health system delays play?

SETTING

Primary health care facilities in five provinces of South Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between the proportion of sputum results with a prolonged smear turnaround time and the proportion of smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) cases initially lost to follow-up.

DESIGN

The unit of investigation was a primary health care facility and the outcome was the initial loss to follow-up rate per facility, which was calculated by comparing the sputum register with the TB treatment register. A prolonged turnaround time was defined as more than 48 h from when the sputum sample was documented in the sputum register to receipt of the result at the facility.

RESULTS

The mean initial loss to follow-up rate was 25% (95%CI 22-28). Smear turnaround time overall was inversely associated with initial loss to follow-up (P = 0.008), when comparing Category 2 (33-66% turnaround time within 48 h) with Category 1 (0-32%) (OR 0.73, 95%CI 0.48-1.13, P = 0.163) and when comparing Category 3 (67-100%) with Category 1 (OR 0.62, 95%CI 0.39-0.99, P = 0.045). The population preventable fraction of initial loss to follow-up (when turnaround time was <48 h in ≥67% of smear results) was 21%.

CONCLUSION

Initial loss to follow-up should be reported as part of the TB programme to ensure that patients are initiated on treatment to prevent transmission within communities.

Tuberculosis in healthcare workers and infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Challenges exist regarding TB infection control and TB in hospital-based healthcare workers in South Africa. However, few studies report on TB in non-hospital based healthcare workers such as primary or community healthcare workers. Our objectives were to investigate the implementation of TB infection control measures at primary healthcare facilities, the smear positive TB incidence rate amongst primary healthcare workers and the association between TB infection control measures and all types of TB in healthcare workers.

METHODS

One hundred and thirty three primary healthcare facilities were visited in five provinces of South Africa in 2009. At each facility, a TB infection control audit and facility questionnaire were completed. The number of healthcare workers who had had TB during the past three years was obtained.

RESULTS

The standardised incidence ratio of smear positive TB in primary healthcare workers indicated an incidence rate of more than double that of the general population. In a univariable logistic regression, the infection control audit score was significantly associated with reported cases of TB in healthcare workers (OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.08, p=0.02) as was the number of staff (OR=3.78, 95%CI 1.77-8.08). In the multivariable analysis, the number of staff remained significantly associated with TB in healthcare workers (OR=3.33, 95%CI 1.37-8.08).

CONCLUSION

The high rate of TB in healthcare workers suggests a substantial nosocomial transmission risk, but the infection control audit tool which was used did not perform adequately as a measure of this risk. Infection control measures should be monitored by validated tools developed and tested locally. Different strategies, such as routine surveillance systems, could be used to evaluate the burden of TB in healthcare workers in order to calculate TB incidence, monitor trends and implement interventions to decrease occupational TB.

Tuberculosis among community-based health care researchers

BACKGROUND

Occupational tuberculosis (TB) in hospital-based health care workers is reported regularly, but TB in community-based health care researchers has not often been addressed.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate TB incidence in health care researchers in a high TB and human immunodeficiency virus prevalent setting in the Western Cape, South Africa. The health care researchers were employed at the Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Stellenbosch University.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed of routine information concerning employees at the Desmond Tutu TB Centre. The Centre has office-based and community-based employees.

RESULTS

Of 180 researchers included in the analysis, 11 TB cases were identified over 250.4 person-years (py) of follow-up. All cases were identified among community-based researchers. TB incidence was 4.39 per 100 py (95%CI 2.45-7.93). The standardised TB morbidity ratio was 2.47 (95%CI 1.25-4.32), which exceeded the standard population rate by 147%.

CONCLUSIONS

TB incidence in South Africa was 948 per 100,000 population per year in 2007; in the communities where the researchers worked, it was 1875/100,000. Community-based researchers in the study population have a 2.34 times higher TB incidence than the community. It is the responsibility of principal investigators to implement occupational health and infection control guidelines to protect researchers.

Antisense suppression of a potato alpha-SNAP homologue leads to alterations in cellular development and assimilate distribution

Using the cDNA-AFLP method, we have isolated a transcript-derived fragment (TDF) which shows a differential expression pattern during tuber organogenesis of Solanum tuberosum L. The TDF was used to isolate a cDNA clone carrying a 1.5 kb insert and potentially coding for a 32.5 kDa peptide which, by homology, represents a potato homologue of an alpha-snap gene and has been designated Stsnap. Northern analysis showed that the Stsnap gene is expressed in actively dividing tissues throughout the potato plant. Analysis of genomic DNA from potato revealed that the Stsnap gene is likely to be a single-copy gene. The expression of antisense Stsnap cDNA under the control of the CaMV 35S promoter results in plants with an altered morphology such as curled leaves. Several of these transgenic lines also display cellular and developmental abnormalities with distinct changes in assimilate transport including accumulation of starch and soluble sugars in source leaves. We argue that these findings are consistent with the hypothetical function of the StSNAP gene product in vesicle targeting and fusion during plant development.

Differential substrate behaviour of phenol and aniline derivatives during conversion by horseradish peroxidase

For the first time saturating overall k(cat) values for horseradish peroxidase (HRP) catalysed conversion of phenols and anilines are described. These k(cat) values correlate quantitatively with calculated ionisation potentials of the substrates. The correlations for the phenols are shifted to higher k(cat) values at similar ionisation potentials as compared to those for anilines. (1)H-NMR T(1) relaxation studies, using 3-methylphenol and 3-methylaniline as the model substrates, revealed smaller average distances of the phenol than of the aniline protons to the paramagnetic Fe(3+) centre in HRP. This observation, together with a possibly higher extent of deprotonation of the phenols than of the anilines upon binding to the active site of HRP, may contribute to the relatively higher HRP catalysed conversion rates of phenols than of anilines.