Disease incidence and not case fatality drives the rural disadvantage in myocardial-infarction-related mortality in Germany

OBJECTIVE

Demographic and infrastructural developments might compromise medical care provision in rural regions, particularly for acute health conditions. Studying the case of myocardial infarction (MI), we investigated how MI-related mortality at ages 65+ varies between rural and urban regions in Germany and to what extent differences are driven by varying case fatality and disease incidence.

METHODS

The study relies on data containing all hospitalizations, cause-specific deaths and population counts for the total German population between years 2012-2018 and ages 65+. MI-related mortality, MI incidence and case fatality are compared between urban and rural regions in a population-wide analysis. The impacts of changing incidence and case fatality on rural-urban MI-related mortality differences are assessed using a counterfactual approach.

RESULTS

Rural regions in Germany show systematically higher MI-related death rates and MI incidence at ages 65+ compared to urban regions. Higher mortality is primarily the result of higher MI incidence in rural regions, while case fatality is largely similar. The rural excess in MI-related death rates would be nullified and 1 out of 6 MI-related deaths in rural regions could be prevented if rural regions in Germany would have at least the median MI incidence of urban regions.

CONCLUSIONS

MI incidence and not case fatality drives the rural disadvantage in MI-related mortality in Germany. Higher MI incidence points towards potential regional variation in the effectiveness of disease prevention. The findings highlight that improving disease prevention at the patient level carries larger opportunities for reducing regional MI-related mortality inequalities in Germany.

Trend of Lassa fever cases and factors associated with mortality in Liberia, 2016 - 2021: a secondary data analysis

Introduction

Lassa fever (LF) is endemic in Liberia and is immediately reportable. Suspected cases are confirmed at the National Public Health Reference Laboratory. However, there is limited information on the trend and factors associated with mortality. We described the epidemiological characteristics of LF cases and determined factors associated with mortality in Liberia from 2016 to 2021.

Methods

we reviewed 867 case-based LF surveillance data from 2016 to 2021 obtained from the National Public Health Institute of Liberia (NPHIL). The cases that met the suspected LF case definition were tested with RT-PCR. Using Epi Info 7.2.5.0. We conducted univariate, bivariate, and multivariate and analysis. We calculated frequencies, proportions. Positivity rate, case fatality rate, and factors associated with LF mortality using chi-square statistics and logistics regression at 5% level of significance.

Results

eighty-five percent (737/867) of the suspected cases were tested and 26.0% (192/737) were confirmed LF positive. The median age of confirmed LF cases was 21(IQR: 12-34) years. Age 10-19 years accounted for 24.5% (47/192) and females 54.2% (104/192). Bong 33.9% (65/192), Grand Bassa 31.8% (61/192), and Nimba counties, 21.9% (42/192) accounted for most of the cases. The median duration from symptom onset to hospital admission was 6 (IQR: 3-9) days. A majority, 66% (126/192) of the cases were reported during the dry season (October-March) and annual incidence was highest at 12 cases per 1,000,000 population in 2019 and 2020. The overall case fatality rate was 44.8%. Non-endemic counties, Margibi, 77.8% and Montserrado, 66.7% accounted for the highest case fatality rate (CFR), while 2018, 66.7% and 2021, 60.0% recorded the highest CFR during the period. Age ≥30 years (aOR=2.1,95% CI: 1.08-4.11, p=0.027) and residing in Grand Bassa County (aOR=0.3, 95% CI: 0.13-0.73, p=0.007) were associated with LF mortality.

Conclusion

Lassa fever was endemic in three of the fifteen counties of Liberia, case fatality rate remained generally high and widely varied. The high fatality of LF has been reported to the NPHIL and is currently being further investigated. There is a need to continuously train healthcare workers, especially in non-endemic counties to improve the LF treatment outcome.

Reduction in the incidence of invasive infections caused by encapsulated bacteria after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

Interaction between severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and IIEB remains under investigation. Objective: to compare IIEB incidence before and during COVID-19 pandemic, and assess incidence of coinfection with COVID-19 and case fatality. A cross-sectional study was performed on data from a centralized microbiology laboratory serving a network of healthcare centers comprising 713 pediatric and adult inpatient beds, expanded by 20% during the pandemic. Three periods were evaluated: (1) pre-pandemic: March 1, 2019-February 29, 2020; (2) pandemic year 1: March 1, 2020-February 28, 2021; (3) pandemic year 2: March 1, 2021-July 31, 2021. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed. 56 502 samples (96% blood cultures) from 27224 patients were analyzed. Of these, 54 samples (from 54 patients) were positive for encapsulated bacteria. IIEB incidence was: 167.4, 32.6, and 50.4 per 100000 samples for periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Twelve IIEB episodes occurred during the pandemic period: 10 Streptococcus pneumoniae, and 2 Haemophilus influenzae, of which 7 were SARS-CoV-2/S. pneumoniae coinfections, with an incidence of 5.68 per 10000 COVID-19-related hospitalizations (0.056%). IIEB case fatality was 31%, 29%, and 60% for each period, respectively, 3/7 patients with coinfection died (43%). Case fatality for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in patients without COVID-19, was 32.5%. Significant reduction in IIEB incidence was observed during the pandemic, coinciding with implementation of containment measures. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2/S. pneumoniae coinfection was low, with higher case fatality than IPD patients without COVID-19.

Evaluation of critical congenital heart disease from 2018 to 2020 in Turkey: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to examine the features of critical congenital heart disease (CCHD).

METHODS

The study was planned as a retrospective cohort study. Data for the study were obtained through national data collection systems and 2018-2020 CCHD cohort was established. In this study, we divided the patients into two groups: Group 1 included seven primary target diseases of the newborn CCHD screening program and Group 2 included secondary target diseases.

RESULTS

There were 9884 CCHD cases, with a prevalence of 27.8 per 10,000 live births. Of the cases 44.4% were in Group 1 (12.3 per 10,000) and 54.8% were in Group 2 (15.2 per 10,000). Of all cases 55.5% were male and the female/male ratio was 1/1.2. While 21.8% of the cases were premature, 23.0% were babies with low birth weight (LBW), 4.8% were born from multiple pregnancies. The highest prevalence of CCHD was found in LBW (84.8 per 10,000), premature infants (57.8 per 10,000) (p < 0.001). The fatality rate in the cohort was 16.6% in the neonatal period, 31.6% in the first year of life respectively. The mean estimated survival time in the birth cohort was 40.0 months (95% CI: 39.5-40.6). The mean survival time for Group 1 diseases was 33.4 months (95% CI: 32.5-34.2), while it was 45.4 months (95% CI: 44.7-46.0) for Group 2 diseases (p < 0.001). Preterm birth, LBW, maternal age and region were evaluated as factors associated with mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that CCHDs are common in Turkey and mortality rates are high. There are regional differences in CCHD both prevalence and survival. Improving prenatal diagnosis rates and expanding neonatal CCHD screening are of key importance.

Ambient particulate matter and in-hospital case fatality of acute myocardial infarction: A multi-province cross-sectional study in China

The acute myocardial infarction (AMI) outcomes have been extensively linked with ambient particulate matter (PM). However, whether a smaller particle has greater impact and the consequent attributable burden associated with PM of different sizes remain unclear. We conducted a multi-province cross-sectional study among AMI patients using the inpatient discharge datasets from four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) from 2014 to 2019. Ambient PM exposure for each patient was assessed using the ChinaHighAirPollutants dataset. We employed the mixed-effects logistic regression models to evaluate the association of PM of different sizes (PM1, PM2.5, PM10) on in-hospital case fatality. The potential reducible fractions in in-hospital case fatality were estimated through counterfactual analyses. Of 177,749 participants, 125,501 (70.6 %) were male and the in-hospital case fatality rate was 4.9%. For short-term (7-day average) exposure, the odds ratios (ORs) for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 (per 10 µg/m3) were 1.052 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.032-1.071), 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.014-1.037), and 1.016 (95% CI, 1.008-1.024), respectively. The estimated ORs for long-term exposure (annual average) were 1.303 (95 % CI, 1.252-1.356) for PM1, 1.209 (95 % CI, 1.178-1.241) for PM2.5, 1.157 (95 % CI, 1.134-1.181) for PM10. Short-term exposure to PM1 showed the highest potential reducible fraction (8.5 %, 95 % CI, 5.0-11.7 %), followed by PM2.5 and PM10, while the greatest potential reducible fraction of long-term exposure was observed in PM10 (30.9 %, 95 % CI, 27.2-34.4%), followed by PM2.5 and PM1. In summary, PM with smaller size had a more pronounced impact on in-hospital AMI case fatality, with PM1 exhibiting greater effects than PM2.5 and PM10. Substantial health benefits for AMI patients could be achieved by mitigating ambient PM exposure.

Analysis of myocardial infarction incidence and case-fatality in the last three decades in the province of Girona

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Myocardial infarction (MI) incidence and case fatality trends are highly informative but relatively untested at the population level. The objective of this work was to estimate MI incidence and case fatality in the Girona population aged 35-74 years, and to determine their 30-year trends (1990-2019).

METHODS

The REGICOR (Girona Heart Registry) monitored MI incidence and case fatality rates from 1990 to 2008. For the period 2008 to 2019, we linked discharges from Girona hospitals (n=4 974 977) and mortality registry (n=70 405) during this period. Our linkage algorithm selected key MI diagnostic codes and removed duplicates. Estimates from the linkage algorithm and the REGICOR registry were compared using chi-square tests for overlapping years (2008-2009). We estimated the annual percent change (APC) of standardized MI incidence and 28-day case fatality, and analyzed their trends using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

MI incidence and case fatality estimates were similar in the linkage algorithm and the REGICOR registry. We observed significant decreasing trends in the incidence of MI. The trend was APC, -0.96% (95% confidence interval (95%CI), -1.4 to -0.53) in women from 1990 to 2019 and -4.2% (95%CI, -5.5 to -3.0) in men from 1994 to 2019. The largest decrease in case fatality was -3.8% (95%CI, -5.1 to -2.5) from 1995 to 2003 in women and -2.4% (95%CI, -2.9 to -1.9) from 1995 to 2004 in men, mainly due to prehospital case fatality declines: -1.8% (95%CI, -2.6 to -1.1) in men and -3.2% (95%CI, -4.6 to -1.8) in women.

CONCLUSIONS

In Girona, MI incidence and case fatality decreased between 1990 and 2019. The incidence showed a slow but continuous decrease while case fatality only stabilized in the last decade, particularly in women.

IN-PATIENT PNEUMONIA BURDEN AND CASE FATALITY RATES IN CHILDREN OVER TWO DECADES IN FEDERAL TEACHING HOSPITAL, GOMBE (FTHG)

Introduction

Pneumonia is the leading cause of death among children globally accounting for an estimated 1.2 million (18%) total deaths annually. The number of childhood-related deaths from pneumonia is approximately 2000-fold higher in developing than in developed countries. Nigeria contributes the highest of pneumonia-related deaths globally.

Objectives

To determine the case fatality rates (CFR) of pneumonia from 2000-2019 in paediatric ward, FTHG.

Methodology

All cases of pneumonia admissions and deaths in patients aged 0-18 years, using ICD-10 classification, were retrieved and analysed. The mainstay of diagnosis is clinical and/or radiographic features.

Results

A total of 26,716 children were admitted during this period, 1151 had pneumonia (4.3%) and 118 died. Males constituted 647 (56.2%) and females 43.8% of the total pneumonia admissions. Children aged 0-5 years had the highest pneumonia admissions, followed by 6-9 years. Admissions were highest in the wet than the dry season. Pneumonia CFR was 10.2%; 10.9% in females and 9.7% in males. Under-5 constituted 84% (969/1151) of pneumonia admission with a CFR of 9.3%. CFR were 10.3% and 21% in 6-10 years, and 11-18 years respectively. The CFR between2000-2004 was 14.1%, 2005-2009:21.1%, 2010-2014:10.2% and 2015-2019:7.2%. Kanuri had the highest CFR of 56.2%.(P <0.05) Other ethnic groups were 29.4% in Waja, 25% in Tula, 21.4% in Igbo, 16.6% in Yoruba, 12.1% in Tangale, 10.2% in Hausa, 8.8%in Bolewa and 8.3% in Fulani. The CFR was highest in February20.2%.

Conclusion

Pneumonia Case fatality is high.

SEVEN-YEAR REVIEW OF PAEDIATRIC AND ADOLESCENTS HIV CARE SERVICES AT ABUBAKAR TAFAWA BALEWA UNIVERSITY TEACHING HOSPITAL BAUCHI, NIGERIA

Introduction

Although the global morbidity and mortality rates associated with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are decreasing, this improvement is slow in Sub-Saharan Africa. The treatment of HIV in children and adolescents is associated with high failure and mortality. The objectives of this study are to describe HIV treatment regimens and case fatality rates for paediatric and adolescent patients.

Methodology

Retrospective review of data of all children aged <17 years seen for Paediatric HIV Care Clinic in Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University Teaching Hospital (ATBUTH) Bauchi. Descriptive data were extracted from the electronic database of the Hospital.

Results

A total of 289 children and adolescents aged 3 to 16 years (mean 12 ± 3.3 yrs; female: male ratio 1.03:1) were cared for during the period under review. Most of the patients (73.7%, n-213) were adolescents. One hundred and twenty-two (42.2%) patients were active on treatment and regular with follow-up visits; 117 (40.5%) patients had an interruption in treatment (were either lost to follow-up or missed follow-up appointments for at least one month beyond their appointment date). Two patients refused to continue with their medications despite appropriate counseling. The case fatality rate was 4.2% (n=12).

Conclusion

There was a high rate of interruption in treatment among children and adolescents being treated for HIV at our centre. The case fatality rate was 4.2%.

Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective.

METHODS

In this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries.

RESULTS

Compared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: - 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: - 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

The availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

A malaria death due to an imported Plasmodium falciparum infection in Sri Lanka during the prevention of re-establishment phase of malaria

BACKGROUND

Sri Lanka has maintained a rigorous programme to prevent the re-establishment of malaria ever since the disease was eliminated in October 2012. It includes efforts to sustain case surveillance to ensure early diagnosis and management of malaria. Yet, in April of 2023 the death occurred of an individual with imported malaria.

CASE PRESENTATION

The deceased was a 37-year-old Sri Lankan male who returned to Sri Lanka on the 10th of April after a business trip to several countries including Tanzania. He was febrile on arrival and consulted three Allopathic Medical Practitioners in succession in his home town in the Western Province of Sri Lanka, over a period of 5 days starting from the very day that he arrived in the country. Malaria was not tested for at any of these consultations and his clinical condition deteriorated. On the evening of 14th of April he was admitted to the medical intensive care unit of a major private hospital in the capital city of Colombo with multiple organ failure. There, on a request by the treating physician blood was tested for malaria and reported early the next morning as Plasmodium falciparum malaria with a high parasitaemia (> 10%). The patient died shortly after on the 15th of April before any anti-malarial medication was administered. The deceased had been a frequent business traveller to Africa, but with no past history of malaria. He had not taken chemoprophylaxis for malaria on this or previous travels to Africa.

DISCUSSION

The patient's P. falciparum infection progressed rapidly over 5 days of arriving in Sri Lanka leading to severe malaria without being diagnosed, despite him seeking healthcare from three different Medical Practitioners. Finally, a diagnosis of malaria was made on admission to an intensive care unit; the patient died before anti-malarial medicines were administered.

CONCLUSIONS

This first death due to severe P. falciparum malaria reported in Sri Lanka after elimination of the disease was due to the delay in diagnosing malaria.

Clinical epidemiology and case fatality due to antimicrobial resistance in Germany: a systematic review and meta-analysis, 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2021

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is of public health concern worldwide.AimWe aimed to summarise the German AMR situation for clinicians and microbiologists.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 60 published studies and data from the German Antibiotic-Resistance-Surveillance (ARS). Primary outcomes were AMR proportions in bacterial isolates from infected patients in Germany (2016-2021) and the case fatality rates (2010-2021). Random and fixed (common) effect models were used to calculate pooled proportions and pooled case fatality odds ratios, respectively.ResultsThe pooled proportion of meticillin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus infections (MRSA) was 7.9% with a declining trend between 2014 and 2020 (odds ratio (OR) = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.886-0.891; p < 0.0001), while vancomycin resistance in Enterococcus faecium (VRE) bloodstream infections increased (OR = 1.18; (95% CI: 1.16-1.21); p < 0.0001) with a pooled proportion of 34.9%. Case fatality rates for MRSA and VRE were higher than for their susceptible strains (OR = 2.29; 95% CI: 1.91-2.75 and 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22-2.33, respectively). Carbapenem resistance in Gram-negative pathogens (Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Enterobacter spp. and Escherichia coli) was low to moderate (< 9%), but resistance against third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones was moderate to high (5-25%). Pseudomonas aeruginosa exhibited high resistance against carbapenems (17.0%; 95% CI: 11.9-22.8), third-generation cephalosporins (10.1%; 95% CI: 6.6-14.2) and fluoroquinolones (24.9%; 95% CI: 19.3-30.9). Statistical heterogeneity was high (I2 > 70%) across studies reporting resistance proportions.ConclusionContinuous efforts in AMR surveillance and infection prevention and control as well as antibiotic stewardship are needed to limit the spread of AMR in Germany.

Central nervous system abscesses and empyemas in England: epidemiological trends over five decades

OBJECTIVES

To report on population-based epidemiological trends in central nervous system (CNS) abscesses and empyemas in England over five decades.

METHODS

Trend analyses of age-sex-specific hospital admission and death rates using routinely collected English national hospital discharge records, mortality records, and annual population denominators from 1968 to 2019.

RESULTS

Hospital admission rates for CNS abscesses and empyemas were stable in England until the late 1980s. In the last two decades of the study period (1999-2019), first-time admissions increased from 1.24 per 100,000 population in 1999 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.35) to 2.86 in 2019 (95% CI 2.72-3.01). Admission rates were highest among infants and older adults, and were higher for males than females. There were small but significant increases in annual mortality rates for CNS abscesses and empyemas over the last two decades of the study period after accounting for population ageing, but mortality remained low at around 0.1-0.2 per 100,000 population. Mortality increased with advancing age; deaths in childhood were extremely rare. Case fatality rates where a relevant diagnosis was recorded as either the underlying or contributing cause were 4.3% and 9.7% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in CNS abscesses and empyemas in England might reflect improved case ascertainment, but the likelihood of a true rise in incidence should be considered.

Case Fatality Rates of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Are Decreasing with Substantial between-Country Variation: A Systematic Review of Population-Based Studies between 1980 and 2020

BACKGROUND

The declining prevalence of smoking and hypertension has been associated with the decrease of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) incidence in the 21st century. Since these same risk factors are linked to SAH mortality, the case fatality rate (CFR) of SAH has potentially also decreased during recent decades. Thus, we conducted a systematic review to address SAH CFR changes over the last 40 years.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search in OVID Medline, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases. We focused on population-based studies published between 1980 and 2020 that had included both hospitalized and nonhospitalized SAH cases, and reported 1-month CFRs for at least two individual study periods for the same population. Finally, we used a linear regression analysis to estimate the annual CFR changes in each identified population and pooled the regional changes for larger geographical and sex-specific analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 4,562 initial publications, we included 22 studies (three of which reached a high-quality classification) consisting of 17,593 SAH patients from 16 different populations and 10 countries. Between 1980 and 2020, SAH CFR declined in all but two populations by an average of -1.5%/year. In the continent-based pooled geographical analyses, CFR decline was the most noticeable in North America (-2.4%/year) and Oceania (-2.2%/year). The decline was more moderate in Northern Europe (-0.8%/year) and Southern Europe (-0.7%/year). Overall, CFRs declined both in women (-1.9%/year) and in men (-1.2%/year). When comparing the first and second half of the study period, CFRs declined from 41% to 31%.

CONCLUSION

Short-term SAH CFRs seem to have declined since 1980. Time trends of SAH CFRs can still be identified for only a few populations, and high-quality data are scarce. Whether the observed decline relates to changes in risk factors, treatment outcomes or diagnostics remains to be studied.

A systematic review of risk factors for mortality among tuberculosis patients in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB)-associated mortality in South Africa remains high. This review aimed to systematically assess risk factors associated with death during TB treatment in South African patients.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of TB research articles published between 2010 and 2018. We searched BioMed Central (BMC), PubMed®, EBSCOhost, Cochrane, and SCOPUS for publications between January 2010 and December 2018. Searches were conducted between August 2019 and October 2019. We included randomised control trials (RCTs), case control, cross sectional, retrospective, and prospective cohort studies where TB mortality was a primary endpoint and effect measure estimates were provided for risk factors for TB mortality during TB treatment. Due to heterogeneity in effect measures and risk factors evaluated, a formal meta-analysis of risk factors for TB mortality was not appropriate. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for all studies and for specific subgroups so that these could be compared. Quality assessments were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale or the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool.

RESULTS

We identified 1995 titles for screening, 24 publications met our inclusion criteria (one cross-sectional study, 2 RCTs, and 21 cohort studies). Twenty-two studies reported on adults (n = 12561) and two were restricted to children < 15 years of age (n = 696). The CFR estimated for all studies was 26.4% (CI 18.1-34.7, n = 13257 ); 37.5% (CI 24.8-50.3, n = 5149) for drug-resistant (DR) TB; 12.5% (CI 1.1-23.9, n = 1935) for drug-susceptible (DS) TB; 15.6% (CI 8.1-23.2, n = 6173) for studies in which drug susceptibility was mixed or not specified; 21.3% (CI 15.3-27.3, n = 7375) for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV); 19.2% (CI 7.7-30.7, n = 1691) in HIV-negative TB patients; and 6.8% (CI 4.9-8.7, n = 696) in paediatric studies. The main risk factors associated with TB mortality were HIV infection, prior TB treatment, DR-TB, and lower body weight at TB diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Africa, overall mortality during TB treatment remains high, people with DR-TB have an elevated risk of mortality during TB treatment and interventions to mitigate high mortality are needed. In addition, better prospective data on TB mortality are needed, especially amongst vulnerable sub-populations including young children, adolescents, pregnant women, and people with co-morbidities other than HIV. Limitations included a lack of prospective studies and RCTs and a high degree of heterogeneity in risk factors and comparator variables.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The systematic review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number CRD42018108622. This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Investment ID OPP1173131) via the South African TB Think Tank.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of Covid-19 illness and predictors of in-hospital mortality in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Patients' race and ethnicity may play a role in mortality from Covid-19. Studies in China, the US, and Europe have been conducted on the predictors of Covid-19 mortality, yet in the EMR countries, such studies are scarce. Therefore, we aimed to describe the hospitalization rate, ICU-admission, and in-hospital mortality of Covid-19 and predictors of in-hospital mortality in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

E-medical records were examined for all Covid-19 patients diagnosed in five tertiary hospitals affiliated with the Saudi-National Guard-Health Affairs during March 21, 2020, and September 12, 2021, based on a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, (n = 35,284). Data were collected on patients' characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory findings, hospitalization, ICU admission, and in-hospital and overall mortality. Logestic regressions were used to identify the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The best laboratory parameters cut-off values to predict in-hospital mortality were identified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Significance was considered at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Of all 35,284 Covid-19 patients, 81.8% were adults and 21.7% were hospitalized. Compared to non-hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients were more of female gender (52.1% versus 47.3%, p < 0.001) and had higher mean age (p < 0.001), higher mean BMI (p < 0.001), and higher rates of: diabetes (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001), ischemic heart disease (p < 0.001), cancer (p < 0.001), COPD (p < 0.001) and asthma (p = 0.011). The study showed 3.1% overall case-fatality, 20.3% ICU admission rate, and 9.7% in-hospital mortality. Predictors of in-hospital mortality among adult patients were; patients' age ≥ 70 years (OR = 6.93, 95% CI 1.94-24.79), ischemic heart disease (OR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.05-3.09), ICU admission (OR = 24.38, 95% CI 15.64-38.01), abnormal C-reactive protein "CRP" (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.08-3.16), abnormal D-dimer (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.15-3.36), lymphopenia (OR = 2.76, 95% CI 2.03-3.3.76), high neutrophil count (OR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.54-2.87), and abnormal procalcitonin (OR = 3.33, 95% CI 1.88-5.90). The best laboratory parameters cut-off values to predict in-hospital mortality were CRP > 72.25 mg/L (AUC = 0.64), D-dimer > 1125 µg/L (AUC = 0.75), neutrophils count > 5,745 × 10^9/L (AUC = 0.70), lymphocytic count < 1.10 × 10^9/L (AUC = 0.72), and procalcitonin > 0.18 ng/mL (AUC = 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of hospitalization, ICU-admission, in-hospital mortality and overall case fatality were nearly comparable to the rates in western countries. Early interventions are necessary for high-risk Covid-19 patients, especially elderly patients and those with cardiac diseases.

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the ECOWAS region

Objective

to analyse the pandemic after one year in terms of the evolution of morbidity and mortality and factors that may contribute to this evolution.

Design

This is a secondary analysis of data gathered to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of cases, incidence rate, cumulative incidence rate, number of deaths, case fatality rate and their trends were analysed during the first year of the pandemic. Testing and other public health measures were also described according to the information available.

Settings

The 15 States members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) were considered.

Results

As of 31st March 2021, the ECOWAS region reported 429,760 COVID-19 cases and 5,620 deaths. In the first year, 1,110.75 persons were infected per million, while 1.31% of the confirmed patients died. The ECOWAS region represents 30% of the African population. One year after the start of COVID-19 in ECOWAS, this region reported 10% of the cases and 10% of the deaths in the continent. Cumulatively, the region has had two major epidemic waves; however, countries show different patterns. The case fatality rate presented a fast growth in the first months and then decreased to a plateau.

Conclusion

We learn that the context of COVID-19 is specific to each country. This analysis shows the importance of better understanding each country's response. During this first year of the pandemic, the problem of variants of concern and the vaccination were not posed.

Funding

The study was funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) under CATALYSE project.

Declining COVID-19 case-fatality in Georgia, USA, March 2020 to March 2021: a sign of real improvement or a broadening epidemic?

PURPOSE

To examine whether declines in the crude U.S. COVID-19 case fatality ratio is due to improved clinical care and/or other factors.

METHODS

We used multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age and other individual-level characteristics, to examine associations between report month and mortality among confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and hospitalized cases in Georgia reported March 2, 2020 to March 31, 2021.

RESULTS

Compared to August 2020, mortality risk among cases was lowest in November 2020 (OR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.78-0.91) and remained lower until March 2021 (OR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.77-0.95). Among hospitalized cases, mortality risk increased in December 2020 (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27) and January 2021 (OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.14-1.36), before declining until March 2021 (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.78-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

After adjusting for other factors, including the shift to a younger age distribution of cases, we observed lower mortality risk from November 2020 to March 2021 compared to August 2020 among cases. This suggests that improved clinical management may have contributed to lower mortality risk. Among hospitalized cases, mortality risk increased again in December 2020 and January 2021, but then decreased to a risk similar to that among all cases by March 2021.

The lethality of suicide methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The use of suicide methods largely determines the outcome of suicide acts. However, no existing meta-analysis has assessed the case fatality rates (CFRs) by different suicide methods. The current study aimed to fill this gap.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, ProQuest and Embase for studies reporting method-specific CFRs in suicide, published from inception to 31 December 2020. A random-effect model meta-analysis was applied to compute pooled estimates.

RESULTS

Of 10,708 studies screened, 34 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Based on the suicide acts that resulted in death or hospitalization, firearms were found to be the most lethal method (CFR:89.7%), followed by hanging/suffocation (84.5%), drowning (80.4%), gas poisoning (56.6%), jumping (46.7%), drug/liquid poisoning (8.0%) and cutting (4.0%). The rank of the lethality for different methods remained relatively stable across study setting, sex and age group. Method-specific CFRs for males and females were similar for most suicide methods, while method-CFRs were specifically higher in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first meta-analysis that provides significant evidence for the wide variation of the lethality of suicide methods. Restricting highly lethal methods based on local context is vital in suicide prevention.

Seasonal COVID-19 surge related hospital volumes and case fatality rates

BACKGROUND

Seasonal and regional surges in COVID-19 have imposed substantial strain on healthcare systems. Whereas sharp inclines in hospital volume were accompanied by overt increases in case fatality rates during the very early phases of the pandemic, the relative impact during later phases of the pandemic are less clear. We sought to characterize how the 2020 winter surge in COVID-19 volumes impacted case fatality in an adequately-resourced health system.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of all adult diagnosed with COVID-19 in a large academic healthcare system between August 25, 2020 to May 8, 2021, using multivariable logistic regression to examine case fatality rates across 3 sequential time periods around the 2020 winter surge: pre-surge, surge, and post-surge. Subgroup analyses of patients admitted to the hospital and those receiving ICU-level care were also performed. Additionally, we used multivariable logistic regression to examine risk factors for mortality during the surge period.

RESULTS

We studied 7388 patients (aged 52.8 ± 19.6 years, 48% male) who received outpatient or inpatient care for COVID-19 during the study period. Patients treated during surge (N = 6372) compared to the pre-surge (N = 536) period had 2.64 greater odds (95% CI 1.46-5.27) of mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. Adjusted mortality risk returned to pre-surge levels during the post-surge period. Notably, first-encounter patient-level measures of illness severity appeared higher during surge compared to non-surge periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed excess mortality risk during a recent winter COVID-19 surge that was not explained by conventional risk factors or easily measurable variables, although recovered rapidly in the setting of targeted facility resources. These findings point to how complex interrelations of population- and patient-level pandemic factors can profoundly augment health system strain and drive dynamic, if short-lived, changes in outcomes.

EQUAL Candida score, an effective tool for predicting the outcomes of Candida tropicalis candidaemia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Candida tropicalis is the most common non-albicans Candida species found in Asia-Pacific countries, including Thailand. The pathogen is known for its great virulence, which causes a high case-fatality rate. Associations between case fatality and patient characteristics, infectious disease unit consultation, and EQUAL Candida score were investigated.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted with 160 cases of C. tropicalis bloodstream infection between 2015 and 2019 at a single, large, tertiary centre in Thailand. Clinical characteristics, clinical presentations, patient outcomes (30-day case-fatality rate) and independent predictive factors were analysed.

RESULTS

The 30-day case-fatality rate was 68.1%. The median of the EQUAL Candida score was 8. Independent factors for the prediction of case fatality were septic shock (hazard ratio, 1.84), the use of mechanical ventilation (hazard ratio, 2.03) and the EQUAL Candida score (hazard ratio, 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive factors for 30-day case fatality were septic shock, mechanical ventilation use and the EQUAL Candida score. It is recommended that the EQUAL score be considered for patients infected with C. tropicalis candidaemia to reduce the case-fatality rate.

Is intensive care unit mortality a valid survival outcome measure related to critical illness?

RATIONALE

Use of death as an outcome of intensive care unit (ICU) admission may be biased by differential discharge decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the validity of ICU survival status as an outcome measure of all cause case-fatality.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of first admissions among adults to four ICUs in North Brisbane, Australia was assembled. Death in ICU (censored at discharge or 30 days) was compared with 30-day overall case-fatality.

RESULTS

The 30-day overall case-fatality was 8.1% (2436/29,939). One thousand six hundred and thirty-one deaths occurred within the ICU stay and 576 subsequent during hospital post-ICU discharge within 30-days; ICU and hospital case-fatality rates were 5.4% and 7.4%, respectively. An additional 229 patients died after hospital separation within 30 days of ICU admission of which 110 (48.0%) were transferred to another acute care hospital, 80 (34.9%) discharged home, and 39 (17.0%) transferred to an aged care/chronic care/rehabilitation facility. Patients who died after ICU discharge were older, had higher APACHE III scores, were more likely to be elective surgical patients, and were less likely to be out of state residents or managed in a tertiary referral hospital. Limiting determination of case-fatality to ICU information alone would correctly detect 95% (780/821) of all-cause mortality at day 3, 90% (1093/1213) at day 5, 75% (1524/2019) at day 15, 72% (1592/2244) at day 21, and 67% (1631/2436) at day 30 of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of ICU case-fatality significantly underestimates the true burden and biases assessment of determinants of critical illness-related mortality in our region.

The Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Malaysia

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has rapidly spread across the globe. Critical to the control of COVID-19 is the characterisation of its epidemiology. Despite this, there has been a paucity of evidence from many parts of the world, including Malaysia. We aim to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Malaysia to inform prevention and control policies better.

METHODS

Malaysian COVID-19 data was extracted from 16 March 2020 up to 31 May 2021. We estimated the following epidemiological indicators: 7-day incidence rates, 7-day mortality rates, case fatality rates, test positive ratios, testing rates and the time-varying reproduction number (Rt).

FINDINGS

Between 16 March 2020 and 31 May 2021, Malaysia has reported 571,901 cases and 2,796 deaths. Malaysia's average 7-day incidence rate was 26•6 reported infections per 100,000 population (95% CI: 17•8, 38•1). The average test positive ratio and testing rate were 4•3% (95% CI: 1•6, 10•2) and 0•8 tests per 1,000 population (95% CI: <0•1, 3•7), respectively. The case fatality rates (CFR) was 0•6% (95% CI: <0•1, 3•7). Among the 2,796 cases who died, 87•3% were ≥ 50 years.

INTERPRETATION

The public health response was successful in the suppression of COVID-19 transmission or the first half of 2020. However, a state election and outbreaks in institutionalised populations have been the catalyst for more significant community propagation. This rising community transmission has continued in 2021, leading to increased incidence and strained healthcare systems. Calibrating NPI based on epidemiological indicators remain critical for us to live with the virus. (243 words).

FUNDING

This study is part of the COVID-19 Epidemiological Analysis and Strategies (CEASe) Project with funding from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (UM.0000245/HGA.GV).

Rural-urban differences in stroke risk

Rural-urban health disparities in life expectancy are large and increasing, with the rural-urban disparity stroke mortality serving as a potential contributor. Data from Vital Statistics shows an unexplained temporal pattern in the rural-urban disparity in stroke-specific mortality, with the magnitude of the disparity increasing from 15% to 25% between 1999 and 2010, but subsequently decreasing to 8% by 2019. This recent decrease in the magnitude of the rural-urban disparity in stroke mortality appears to be driven by a previously unreported plateauing of stroke mortality in urban areas and a continued decline of stroke mortality in rural areas. There is a need to better understand the contributors to these temporal changes; however, a general lack of temporal data on potential contributors prevents this investigation. However considering contributors to the rural-urban differences pooled across time, an overall a higher stroke incidence in rural areas appears to be a contributor to the higher rural stroke mortality, with this higher incidence potentially associated with a higher prevalence of stroke risk factors in rural areas. Conversely, studies assessing rural-urban disparities in stroke case fatality show smaller and inconsistent associations. To the extent that disparities in case fatality do exist, there are many studies showing rural-urban disparities in stroke care could be contributing. While these data offer insights to the overall rural-urban disparities in stroke mortality, additional data are needed to help understand temporal changes in the magnitude of the rural-urban stroke mortality disparity.

Does tuberculosis screening improve individual outcomes? A systematic review

BACKGROUND

To determine if tuberculosis (TB) screening improves patient outcomes, we conducted two systematic reviews to investigate the effect of TB screening on diagnosis, treatment outcomes, deaths (clinical review assessing 23 outcome indicators); and patient costs (economic review).

METHODS

Pubmed, EMBASE, Scopus and the Cochrane Library were searched between 1/1/1980-13/4/2020 (clinical review) and 1/1/2010-14/8/2020 (economic review). As studies were heterogeneous, data synthesis was narrative.

FINDINGS

Clinical review: of 27,270 articles, 18 (n=3 trials) were eligible. Nine involved general populations. Compared to passive case finding (PCF), studies showed lower smear grade (n=2/3) and time to diagnosis (n=2/3); higher pre-treatment losses to follow-up (screened 23% and 29% vs PCF 15% and 14%; n=2/2); and similar treatment success (range 68-81%; n=4) and case fatality (range 3-11%; n=5) in the screened group. Nine reported on risk groups. Compared to PCF, studies showed lower smear positivity among those culture-confirmed (n=3/4) and time to diagnosis (n=2/2); and similar (range 80-90%; n=2/2) treatment success in the screened group. Case fatality was lower in n=2/3 observational studies; both reported on established screening programmes. A neonatal trial and post-hoc analysis of a household contacts trial found screening was associated with lower all-cause mortality. Economic review: From 2841 articles, six observational studies were eligible. Total costs (n=6) and catastrophic cost prevalence (n=4; range screened 9-45% vs PCF 12-61%) was lower among those screened.

INTERPRETATION

We found very limited patient outcome data. Collecting and reporting this data must be prioritised to inform policy and practice.

FUNDING

WHO and EDCTP.

Reconciling the obesity paradox: Obese patients suffer the highest critical illness associated mortality rates

The obesity paradox refers to the observation that obese patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) have lower case fatality as compared to healthy weight patients. However, selection bias could explain the apparent paradox. Our objective was to assess whether obese people have a different overall burden of critical illness associated mortality. A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted in North Brisbane ICUs during 2017-2019. Patients were classified as underweight, healthy weight, overweight, and obese according to BMIs <18.5, 18.5-24.9, 25-29.9, and ≥ 30 kg/m², respectively. ICU admission incidence rates were 245.6, 138.2, 178.9, and 421.9 per 100,000 population; 90-day all cause case fatalities were 24.0%, 17.0%, 18.1%, and 16.0%; and critical illness associated mortality rates were 58.8, 23.4, 32.4, and 67.7 per 100,000 population among underweight, healthy weight, overweight, and obese patients, respectively. As compared to patients of healthy weight, those who were underweight (relative risk; RR 2.51; 95% CI, 1.79-3.44), overweight (RR 1.38; 95% CI, 1.16-1.65), and obese (RR 2.89; 2.43-3.43) were each at significantly higher risk for critical illness associated mortality. While obese patients have lower case fatality they are at much higher risk for ICU admission and as result suffer the highest burden of critical illness associated mortality in our region.

Mortality in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study

Background

Escherichia coli is the most common cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and mortality is an important aspect of burden of disease. Using a multinational population-based cohort of E. coli BSIs, our objectives were to evaluate 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate, and determine factors associated with each.

Methods

During 2014–2018, we identified 30-day deaths from all incident E. coli BSIs from surveillance nationally in Finland, and regionally in Sweden (Skaraborg) and Canada (Calgary, Sherbrooke, western interior). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate factors associated with 30-day case fatality risk. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion were year (2014–2018), region (five areas), age (< 70-years-old, ≥70-years-old), sex (female, male), third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance (susceptible, resistant), and location of onset (community-onset, hospital-onset). The European Union 28-country 2018 population was used to directly age and sex standardize mortality rates. We used a multivariable Poisson model to estimate factors associated with mortality rate, and year, region, age and sex were considered for inclusion.

Results

From 38.7 million person-years of surveillance, we identified 2961 30-day deaths in 30,923 incident E. coli BSIs. The overall 30-day case fatality risk was 9.6% (2961/30923). Calgary, Skaraborg, and western interior had significantly increased odds of 30-day mortality compared to Finland. Hospital-onset and 3GC-resistant E. coli BSIs had significantly increased odds of mortality compared to community-onset and 3GC-susceptible. The significant association between age and odds of mortality varied with sex, and contrasts were used to interpret this interaction relationship. The overall standardized 30-day mortality rate was 8.5 deaths/100,000 person-years. Sherbrooke had a significantly lower 30-day mortality rate compared to Finland. Patients that were either ≥70-years-old or male both experienced significantly higher mortality rates than those < 70-years-old or female.

Conclusions

In our study populations, region, age, and sex were significantly associated with both 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate. Additionally, 3GC resistance and location of onset were significantly associated with 30-day case fatality risk. Escherichia coli BSIs caused a considerable burden of disease from 30-day mortality. When analyzing population-based mortality data, it is important to explore mortality through two lenses, mortality rate and case fatality risk.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06326-x.

Estimating age-specific COVID-19 fatality risk and time to death by comparing population diagnosis and death patterns: Australian data

Background

Mortality is a key component of the natural history of COVID-19 infection. Surveillance data on COVID-19 deaths and case diagnoses are widely available in the public domain, but they are not used to model time to death because they typically do not link diagnosis and death at an individual level. This paper demonstrates that by comparing the unlinked patterns of new diagnoses and deaths over age and time, age-specific mortality and time to death may be estimated using a statistical method called deconvolution.

Methods

Age-specific data were analysed on 816 deaths among 6235 cases over age 50 years in Victoria, Australia, from the period January through December 2020. Deconvolution was applied assuming logistic dependence of case fatality risk (CFR) on age and a gamma time to death distribution. Non-parametric deconvolution analyses stratified into separate age groups were used to assess the model assumptions.

Results

It was found that age-specific CFR rose from 2.9% at age 65 years (95% CI:2.2 – 3.5) to 40.0% at age 95 years (CI: 36.6 – 43.6). The estimated mean time between diagnosis and death was 18.1 days (CI: 16.9 – 19.3) and showed no evidence of varying by age (heterogeneity P = 0.97). The estimated 90% percentile of time to death was 33.3 days (CI: 30.4 – 36.3; heterogeneity P = 0.85). The final age-specific model provided a good fit to the observed age-stratified mortality patterns.

Conclusions

Deconvolution was demonstrated to be a powerful analysis method that could be applied to extensive data sources worldwide. Such analyses can inform transmission dynamics models and CFR assessment in emerging outbreaks. Based on these Australian data it is concluded that death from COVID-19 occurs within three weeks of diagnosis on average but takes five weeks in 10% of fatal cases. Fatality risk is negligible in the young but rises above 40% in the elderly, while time to death does not seem to vary by age.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01314-w.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection profile in Qatar: An 8-year experience

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged in 2012. The objective of the study was to describe the epidemiology, risk factors, clinical characteristics, and outcome of MERS-CoV in Qatar. A total of 28 cases of MERS-CoV were identified, corresponding to an incidence of 1.7 per 1,000,000 population. Most patients had a history of contact with camels 15, travel to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 7 or known contact with individuals with confirmed MERS-CoV infection 7. Majority of patients had acute kidney injury (AKI) 17 and 9 needed renal replacement therapy. All patients were hospitalized, 14 required critical care support. Overall, total of 10 died. The immediate cause of death was multiorgan failure with acute respiratory syndrome (ARDS) 9. MERS-CoV is a rare infection in the State of Qatar. There was no hospital outbreaks or healthcare worker reported infection. The infection causes severe respiratory failure and acute renal failure. Patients with AKI and on ventilator support carry higher risk of mortality.

Positivity Rate, Predictors, and Outcome of Paediatric Lassa Fever Disease (LFD) in a Lassa Fever Endemic State, South-East Nigeria

Background

The pattern and case fatality rate of Paediatric Lassa fever disease (LFD) is not well documented even in Lassa fever endemic communities.

Aim and Objective

This prospective observational study was aimed at determining the pattern and outcome of Paediatric LFD.

Methodology

A total of 183 children that met the criteria for LFD suspects were subjected to the Lassa virus PCR test. The suspects that tested positive were recruited into the study and a structured questionnaire was used to collect information on socio-demographics.

Results

Of the 183 LFD suspects that were tested, 24 of them were positive to Lassa virus PCR, giving a positivity rate of 13.1%. The mean duration of illness before hospital presentation was 8.54 ± 3.83 days. All the subjects had a history of fever. Abdominal pain and vomiting were the two highest presenting complaints after fever. Seven out of 24 children died during the study period, giving a case fatality rate (CFR) of 29.2%. Subjects who presented with convulsions and unconsciousness (OR =10.00, 95% CI= 1.2, 81.81, p=0.020), bleeding (OR =40.00, 95% CI= 12.96, 539.67, p=0.020), poor urine output (OR =40.00, 95% CI= 12.96, 539.67, p=0.020) were more likely to die of LFD compared to their colleagues without such symptoms.

Conclusion

The positivity rate and case fatality rate of LFD in children were high. Public enlightenment on the common features of Lassa fever disease and the need to seek health care early for children with febrile illness is advocated.

Impact of Underlying Comorbidities on Mortality in SARS-COV-2 Infected Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The evidence has shown that SARS CoV-2 infected patients with comorbidities are more likely to have severe disease sequel and mortality. In SARS-CoV-2 infected cancer patients risks associated with other underlying comorbidities might vary from those in non-cancer SARS CoV-2 infected patients. The relative impact of different underlying health conditions among patients with cancer and SARS CoV-2 infection remains yet to be explored. This systematic review aims to explore the prevalence of comorbidities among cancer patients with SARS CoV-2 infection and their impact on mortality.

METHODS

Online databases PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of science were searched for articles published between 9th July 2019 to July 8th 2020.Studies of cancer patients (>18 years) with diagnosis of SARS CoV-2 infection, published in English were included. A random-effects modelling for the meta-analyses was applied to assess the pooled prevalence and odds ratio for mortality due to comorbidities in SARS CoV-2 infected cancer patients.

RESULTS

Total 31studies with 4086 SARS-CoV-2 infectedcancer patientsmet the inclusion criteria. Most prevalent co-morbidities in cancer patients with SARS CoV-2 infection were hypertension [42.3% (95%CI:37.5- 47.0)], diabetes [17.8% (95% CI: 15.3-20.4)] and cardiovascular diseases [16.7% (95%CI:12.9-20.4)].The risk of mortality (pOR) was significantly higher in individuals with hypertension[1.6(95%CI 1.24-2.00)], cardiovascular diseases [2.2 (95%CI 1.49- 3.27)], chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases [1.4(95% CI 1.05-2.00)] and diabetes [1.35(95%CI 1.06-1.73)].

CONCLUSION

Our results indicates that the mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected cancer patients is affected by preexisting non-cancer comorbidities. By identifying the comorbidities predictive for mortality, clinicians can better stratify the risk of cancer patients presenting with SARS-COV-2, on their initial contact with health services.
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Trends in suicide rates and the case-fatality of pesticide self-poisoning in an agricultural county in china, 2009 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Suicide rates in China have declined substantially in the last two decades, however, the correlates of the decreases are still unclear.

METHODS

Using hospital-based suicidal acts registry system in Meixian county, we reviewed all episodes of suicidal behaviors presented at hospitals from 2009 to 2014. The data was combined with the suicides reported in the same period by the county's Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Stratified by gender and method, age-standardized incidences of suicide death, suicide attempts, suicidal acts, as well as the case-fatalities of suicidal acts, were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to test the time trends changes of the annual incidences and case-fatalities. Correlation coefficients between suicide rates and case-fatality were estimated.

RESULTS

Age-standardized suicide rates among females declined by 20.4% per year, meanwhile, overall suicide rates were characterized by downward trend without statistical significance. The annual proportions of suicide deaths by pesticide self-poisoning ranged from 57.1% to 82.6%. There were positive or marginally positive correlations between suicide rates and case-fatalities of suicidal acts in gender- and method-specific groups (r values range from 0.77 to 0.89).

LIMITATIONS

Underreporting in the hospital-based registry system and misclassification in the death reporting system. Changes in other related factors are not yet accessible.

CONCLUSION

Suicide rates in females declined prominently in Meixian from 2009 to 2014, even though overall suicide rates remained steady. Pesticide ingestion were most common suicide method. Restriction of pesticide and reduction in the case-fatality are critical targets of suicide prevention in rural China.

Differences in the clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in the epicenter and peripheral areas of the pandemic from China: a retrospective, large-sample, comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

There is limited information on the difference in epidemiology, clinical characteristics and outcomes of the initial outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan (the epicenter) and Sichuan (the peripheral area) in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study was conducted to investigate the differences in the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 between the epicenter and peripheral areas of pandemic and thereby generate information that would be potentially helpful in formulating clinical practice recommendations to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The Sichuan & Wuhan Collaboration Research Group for COVID-19 established two retrospective cohorts that separately reflect the epicenter and peripheral area during the early pandemic. The epidemiology, clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients in the two groups were compared. Multivariate regression analyses were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with regard to the outcomes.

RESULTS

The Wuhan (epicenter) cohort included 710 randomly selected patients, and the peripheral (Sichuan) cohort included 474 consecutive patients. A higher proportion of patients from the periphery had upper airway symptoms, whereas a lower proportion of patients in the epicenter had lower airway symptoms and comorbidities. Patients in the epicenter had a higher risk of death (aOR=7.64), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (aOR=1.66), delayed time from illness onset to hospital and ICU admission (aOR=6.29 and aOR=8.03, respectively), and prolonged duration of viral shedding (aOR=1.64).

CONCLUSIONS

The worse outcomes in the epicenter could be explained by the prolonged time from illness onset to hospital and ICU admission. This could potentially have been associated with elevated systemic inflammation secondary to organ dysfunction and prolonged duration of virus shedding independent of age and comorbidities. Thus, early supportive care could achieve better clinical outcomes.

Infection pattern, case fatality rate and spread of Lassa virus in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic infectious disease of public concern in Nigeria. The infection dynamics of the disease is not well elucidated in Nigeria. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of infection, case fatality rate and spread of lassa virus (LASV) from 2017 to 2020.

METHODS

Weekly epidemiological data on LF from December, 2016 to September, 2020 were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The number of confirmed cases and deaths were computed according to months and states. Descriptive statistics was performed and case fatality rate was calculated. Distribution and spread maps of LF over the four years period was performed on ArcMap 10.7.

RESULTS

A total of 2787 confirmed cases and 516 deaths were reported in Nigeria from December, 2016 to September, 2020. Increase in number of cases and deaths were observed with 298, 528, 796 and 1165 confirmed cases and 79, 125, 158 and 158 deaths in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Over 60% of the cases were reported in two states, Edo and Ondo states. The LF cases spread from 19 states in 2017 to 32 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2020. Ondo state (25.39%) had the highest of deaths rate from LF over the four years. Case fatality rate (CFR) of LF was highest in 2017 (26.5%) with CFR of 23.7, 19.6 and 13.4% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The peak of infection was in the month of February for the four years. Infections increases at the onset of dry season in November and decline till April when the wet season sets-in.

CONCLUSION

There is an annual increase in the number of LASV infection across the states in Nigeria. There is need to heighten control strategies through the use of integrated approach, ranging from vector control, health education and early diagnosis.

[Case fatality of COVID-19 in patients with neurodegenerative dementia]

Introduction

The elderly population is the group most threatened by COVID-19, with the highest mortality rates. This study aims to analyse the case fatality of COVID-19 in a cohort of patients with degenerative dementia.

Methods

We conducted a descriptive case-control study of a sample of patients diagnosed with primary neurodegenerative dementia.

Results

Twenty-four of the 88 patients with COVID-19 included in the study died: 10/23 (43.4%) patients diagnosed with dementia and 14/65 (21.5%) controls; this difference was statistically significant.

Discussion

Our results suggest that case fatality of COVID-19 is significantly higher among patients with primary degenerative dementia than in other patients with similar mean ages and comorbidities.

The epidemiology of acute coronary syndromes in French Guiana

BACKGROUND

French Guiana is an overseas territory of France with marked specificities in terms of populations, socioeconomic factors, risk factors, and an access to care. In this context, the objective of the present study was to describe the epidemiology of acute coronary syndromes in French Guiana and to make comparisons with mainland France and neighbouring country.

METHODS

The data were obtained from a retrospective descriptive hospital-based cohort conceived to describe the incidence of acute coronary syndromes and their epidemiologic and clinical characteristics. It included patients aged 18 or more hospitalised for a first coronary syndrome in the reference centre for coronary syndromes in Cayenne French Guiana between Jan 1st 2012 and Dec 31st 2014. Overall, 266 patients were analysed.

RESULTS

The mean age was 64 years (SD=12.54). A majority of patients were men (sex ratio=1.83). The proportion of patients born in an overseas French territory (44.36%) was similar to that of those born in a foreign country (43.98%), and 11.65% were born in mainland France. Only 59% of patients had regular health insurance. Moreover, 33.21% had universal medical insurance (CMU for those below a minimal income), 4.91% had state insurance (for illegal foreign patients) and 2.64% had no insurance at all. The main risk factors were high blood pressure (73.68%), diabetes (39.85%), hypercholesterolemia (40.23%), and smoking (37.97%). Overall, 82/266 patients developed an ST elevation coronary syndrome (STEMI) and 184/266 had a non-ST elevation coronary syndrome NSTEMI or unstable angina pectoris. Thrombolysis was only performed in 20.73% of patients with STEMI. Mortality at 1 month was 8/82 (9.76%) for STEMI and 2/184 (1.09%) for NSTEMI.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiologic profile of acute coronary syndromes in French Guiana is different from that of mainland France and Europe to the neighbouring country Brazil. Mortality of STEMI also seems higher than in mainland France, but similar to Brazil. In a context of frequent health inequalities, interventions targeting the major risk factors, notably high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes, have the potential to significantly impact cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Incidence and case fatality of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage admitted to hospital between 2008 and 2014 in Norway

Background

To provide age- and sex-specific incidence and case fatality rates for non-traumatic aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) in Norway. We also studied time trends in incidence and case fatality, as well as predictors of death following aSAH.

Methods

A nationwide study using discharge data for patients admitted with aSAH between 2008 and 2014.

Results

A total of 1732 patients with aSAH were included. The mean age was 60 years (SD 14) and 63% were females. Crude annual incidence was 5.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 5.4–6.0) and was higher in females (6.3 per 100,000, 95% CI 5.9–6.7) compared with males (4.9 per 100,000, 95% CI 4.5–5.3). The annual decline in aSAH incidence was 3.2% per year (p = 0.007). The cumulative proportions of fatalities at days 30, 90, and 1 year were 22%, 25%, and 37%, respectively. The 30-day mortality rate did not change during the study period. Age (HR 0.7–2.2) and aneurysms in the posterior circulation (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3–2.3, p = 0.001) were associated with higher 30-day case fatality following aSAH, while aneurysm repair (HR 0.2, 95% CI 0.2–0.3, p < 0.001) was associated with lower risk.

Conclusions

The incidence of aSAH declined in Norway between 2008 and 2014. Case fatality following aSAH continues to be high, and the 30-day mortality during the study period was unchanged. Increasing age and aneurysms in the posterior circulation were associated with increased risk of death within 30 days following aSAH.

The burden of laboratory-confirmed pertussis in low- and middle-income countries since the inception of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) in 1974: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

An effective vaccine against Bordetella pertussis was introduced into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) by WHO in 1974, leading to a substantial global reduction in pertussis morbidity and mortality. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, the epidemiology of pertussis remains largely unknown. This impacts negatively on pertussis control strategies in these countries. This study aimed to systematically and comprehensively review published literature on the burden of laboratory-confirmed pertussis in LMICs over the 45 years of EPI.

METHODS

Electronic databases were searched for relevant literature (1974 to December 2018) using common and MeSH terms for pertussis. Studies using PCR, culture or paired serology to confirm Bordetella pertussis and parapertussis in symptomatic individuals were included if they had clearly defined numerators and denominators to determine prevalence and mortality rates.

RESULTS

Eighty-two studies (49,167 participants) made the inclusion criteria. All six WHO regions were represented with most of the studies published after 2010 and involving mainly upper middle-income countries (n = 63; 77%). PCR was the main diagnostic test after the year 2000. The overall median point prevalence of PCR-confirmed Bordetella pertussis was 11% (interquartile range (IQR), 5-27%), while culture-confirmed was 3% (IQR 1-9%) and paired serology a median of 17% (IQR 3-23%) over the period. On average, culture underestimated prevalence by 85% (RR = 0.15, 95% CI, 0.10-0.22) compared to PCR in the same studies. Risk of pertussis increased with HIV exposure [RR, 1.4 (95% CI, 1.0-2.0)] and infection [RR, 2.4 (95% CI, 1.1-5.1)]. HIV infection and exposure were also related to higher pertussis incidences, higher rates of hospitalisation and pertussis-related deaths. Pertussis mortality and case fatality rates were 0.8% (95% CI, 0.4-1.4%) and 6.5% (95% CI, 4.0-9.5%), respectively. Most deaths occurred in infants less than 6 months of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the widespread use of pertussis vaccines, the prevalence of pertussis remains high in LMIC over the last three decades. There is a need to increase access to PCR-based diagnostic confirmation in order to improve surveillance. Disease control measures in LMICs must take into account the persistent significant infant mortality and increased disease burden associated with HIV infection and exposure.

Ebola outbreak in West Africa, 2014 - 2016: Epidemic timeline, differential diagnoses, determining factors, and lessons for future response

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) that raged between 2014 and 2016 in the West African sub-region was one of the global epidemics that spiked international public health concern in the last decade. Since the discovery of ebolavirus in 1976, the 2014-2016 epidemics have been the worst with significant case fatality rates and socioeconomic impact in the affected countries. This review looks at important health determinants that directly accounted for the spatial events of rapid spread and severity of EVD in West Africa, with consequent high fatality rates. It also brings up a time-point health determinant model to conceptualize understanding of this important outbreak with a view to enlightening the public andproviding valuable recommendations that may be crucial to preventing or curtailing any future outbreak of the disease.

Con la ley y sin la ley/With and without the law: Utilization of abortion services and case fatality in Mexico, 2000-2016

OBJECTIVE

To describe utilization of health services for, and case fatality from, abortion in Mexico.

METHOD

A historical cohort study using a census of state-level aggregate hospital discharge and primary care clinic data across Mexico's 32 states from January 2000 to December 2016. Abortive events and changes over time in utilization per 1000 women aged 15-44 years, and case fatality per 100 000 abortion-related events were described by year, health sector, and state. Associations of location (Mexico City vs 31 other states) and time (Mexico City implemented legal abortion services in 2007) with outcomes were tested by linear regression, controlling for secular trends.

RESULTS

The national abortion utilization rate was 6.7 per 1000 women in 2000, peaked at 7.9 in 2011, and plateaued to 7.0 in 2016. In Mexico City, utilization peaked at 16.7 in 2014 and then plateaued. Nationwide, the case-fatality rate declined over time from 53.7 deaths per 100 000 events in 2000 to 33.0 in 2016. Case fatality declined more rapidly in Mexico City than in the other 31 states to 12.3 in 2015.

CONCLUSION

Case fatality from abortive events has decreased across Mexico. Where abortion became legal, utilization increased sharply but plateaued afterward.

Early and late case fatality after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome in France, 2010-2015

BACKGROUND

Case-fatality data for acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are scarce in unselected French patients.

AIMS

To analyse early and late case-fatality rates in patients with ACS in France, case fatality determinants and time trends between 2010 and 2015.

METHODS

For each year from 2010 to 2015, all patients hospitalized for ACS in France and aged>18 years were selected. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess determinants of case fatality at 3 days, 4-30 days and 31-365 days after hospital admission.

RESULTS

In 2015, cumulative 3-day, 30-day and 1-year case-fatality rates were, respectively, 2.0%, 5.1% and 11.1% for all patients with ACS, and 3.9%, 8.5% and 13.8% for those with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Admission through the emergency department was associated with a higher risk of death, particularly at 3 days. Female sex was associated with higher case-fatality rates at 3 days, but with lower case-fatality rates at 31-365 days. Social deprivation was associated with higher case-fatality rates for all periods for all patients with ACS. A significant decrease was found between 2010 and 2015 in case-fatality rates at 31-365 days, particularly for patients with STEMI; this time trend was no longer significant after additional adjustment for hospital management.

CONCLUSIONS

Case fatality up to 1 year after hospitalization for ACS was non-negligible, highlighting the need to ensure better follow-up after the acute stage, particularly in the most deprived patients. As hospital admission through the emergency department still occurs frequently, health policy should promote a national campaign to increase the awareness and preparedness of the general population regarding ACS. Finally, our results suggest that women need specific attention early after the index event.

Stroke incidence in the young: evidence from a Norwegian register study

Introduction

While there is a general agreement that stroke incidence among the elderly is declining in the developed world, there is a concern that it may be increasing among the young. The present study investigates this issue for the Norwegian population for the years 2010–2015. Cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) for patients younger than 55 years were identified through the Norwegian Patient Registry and the Norwegian Cause-of-death Registry.

Methods

Negative binomial regression modelling was used to estimate temporal trends in the CVA incidence rates for the young, aged 15–54, with 10-year sub-intervals, and for children below the age of 18. The main outcomes were CVA incidence per 100,000 person-years at risk (PY), 30-day stroke mortality per 100,000 PY, and 30-day case-fatality rates.

Results

The analysis showed a negative and non-significant temporal trend in the CVA incidence (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 0.052$$\end{document}p=0.052) as well as for 30-day mortality (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p = 0.074$$\end{document}p=0.074) for the age group 15–54. Overall, the inclusion of an interaction for age in the bracket 45–54 suggested that any temporal decline is restricted to this age bracket. The analyses of the 10-year age brackets 15–24, 25–34, and 34–45, provided evidence neither for an increase, nor for a decrease, in incidence. Among the children, the estimated temporal coefficients were positive, but non-significant, consistent with a stationary trend.

Conclusion

Weak statistical evidence was found for a decline in CVA incidence and for overall stroke 30-day case fatality for 15–54 year olds, but the decline was significant only for the 45–54 age band. All results considered, the study suggests a stationary or decreasing temporal trend in CVA incidence and stroke fatality for children (0–18) and young (15–54) in Norway. Even larger data sets are needed to estimate these temporal trends accurately.

Progress toward eliminating TB and HIV deaths in Brazil, 2001-2015: a spatial assessment

BACKGROUND

Brazil has high burdens of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV, as previously estimated for the 26 states and the Federal District, as well as high levels of inequality in social and health indicators. We improved the geographic detail of burden estimation by modelling deaths due to TB and HIV and TB case fatality ratios for the more than 5400 municipalities in Brazil.

METHODS

This ecological study used vital registration data from the national mortality information system and TB case notifications from the national communicable disease notification system from 2001 to 2015. Mortality due to TB and HIV was modelled separately by cause and sex using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed effects regression model. TB incidence was modelled using the same approach. Results were calibrated to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Case fatality ratios were calculated for TB.

RESULTS

There was substantial inequality in TB and HIV mortality rates within the nation and within states. National-level TB mortality in people without HIV infection declined by nearly 50% during 2001 to 2015, but HIV mortality declined by just over 20% for males and 10% for females. TB and HIV mortality rates for municipalities in the 90th percentile nationally were more than three times rates in the 10th percentile, with nearly 70% of the worst-performing municipalities for male TB mortality and more than 75% for female mortality in 2001 also in the worst decile in 2015. The same municipality ranking metric for HIV was observed to be between 55% and 61%. Within states, the TB mortality rate ratios by sex for municipalities in the worst decile versus the best decile varied from 1.4 to 2.9, and HIV varied from 1.4 to 4.2. The World Health Organization target case fatality rate for TB of less than 10% was achieved in 9.6% of municipalities for males versus 38.4% for females in 2001 and improved to 38.4% and 56.6% of municipalities for males versus females, respectively, by 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates in municipalities within the same state exhibited nearly as much relative variation as within the nation as a whole. Monitoring the mortality burden at this level of geographic detail is critical for guiding precision public health responses.

Epidemiology, clinical presentation, risk factors, intensive care admission and outcomes of invasive meningococcal disease in England, 2010-2015

The epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is constantly changing as new strains are introduced into a population and older strains are removed through vaccination, population immunity or natural trends. Consequently, the clinical disease associated with circulating strains may also change over time. In England, IMD incidence has declined from 1.8/100,000 in 2010/2011 to 1.1/100,000 in 2013/2014, with a small increase in 2014/2015 to 1.3/100,000. Between 01 January 2011 and 30 June 2015, MenB was responsible for 73.0% (n = 2489) of 3411 laboratory-confirmed IMD cases, followed by MenW (n = 371, 10.9%), MenY (n = 373, 10.9%) and MenC (n = 129, 3.8%); other capsular groups were rare (n = 49, 1.4%). Detailed questionnaires were completed for all 3411 laboratory-confirmed cases. Clinical presentation varied by capsular group and age. Atypical presentations were uncommon (244/3411; 7.2%), increasing from 1.2% (41/3411) in children to 3.5% (120/3411) in older adults. Known IMD risk factors were rare (18/3411; 0.5%) and included complement deficiency (n = 11), asplenia (n = 6) or both (n = 1). Nearly a third of cases required intensive care (1069/3411; 31.3%), with rates highest in adults. The 28-day CFR was 6.9% (n = 237), with the lowest rates in 0-14 year-olds (85/1885, 4.5%) and highest among 85+ year-olds (30/94, 31.9%). These observations provide a useful baseline for the current burden of IMD in a European country with enhanced national surveillance.

Early and One-Year Outcomes of Acute Stroke in the Industrial Region of Poland During the Decade 2006-2015: The Silesian Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND

Poland, classified as a high-income country, is still considered to have a high cardiovascular risk population. During the last decade, the standards of care in acute stroke (AS) had markedly improved; thus, we aimed to assess whether and how it translated into early and late outcomes.

METHODS

Silesian Stroke Registry was created from the administrative database of the public, obligatory, health -insurer in Poland. The AS cases were selected based on primary diagnosis coded in ICD-10 as I60-I64 for years 2006-2015 (n = 120,844). Index hospitalization together with data on re-hospitalizations, procedures, ambulatory visits, rehabilitation and all-cause deaths in a 1-year follow-up were analyzed.

RESULTS

The rates of admissions per 100,000 adult population varied between 41-47 for haemorrhagic and 257-275 for ischaemic stroke with substantial decrease in almost all age groups except for the oldest patients. In ischaemic stroke, thrombolytic therapy raised from 0 to 8.8% in 2015, along with significant trends of decreasing 30-day (from 20 to 16%) and 12-month (from 35 to 31%) case fatality. In haemorrhagic stroke, case fatality had not changed. After ischaemic stroke, 12-month readmissions due to AS declined from 11-12% in 2006-2009 to 9% in 2010-2014. The percentage of patients benefiting from rehabilitation increased from 24 to 32%.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population of industrial province, we showed recent, positive trends in AS admissions, treatment and 1-year outcomes. Development of stroke unit networks and increase in thrombolytic treatment were at least in part responsible for survival improvement and reduction of recurrence of AS. However, case-fatality and stroke recurrence remain high compared to those of other developed countries.

The outcome and timing of death of 17,767 nosocomial bloodstream infections in acute care hospitals in Finland during 1999-2014

Few studies covering all patient groups and specialties are available regarding the outcome of nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSI). We analyzed the role of patient characteristics and causative pathogens of nosocomial BSIs reported by the hospitals participating in national surveillance in Finland during 1999-2014, in terms of outcome, with particular interest in those leading to death within 2 days (i.e. early death). National nosocomial BSI surveillance was laboratory-based and hospital-wide. Data on nosocomial BSIs was collected by infection control nurses, and dates of death were obtained from the national population registry with linkage to national identity codes. A total of 17,767 nosocomial BSIs were identified; 557 BSIs (3%) were fatal within 2 days and 1150 (6%) within 1 week. The 1-month case fatality was 14% (2460 BSIs), and 23% of the deaths occurred within 2 days and 47% within 1 week. The patients who died early were older than those who survived > 28 days, and their BSIs were more often related to intensive care. Gram-positive bacteria caused over half of the BSIs of patients who survived, whereas gram-negative bacteria, especially Pseudomonas aeruginosa, caused more often BSIs of patients who died early, and fungi BSIs of patients who died within 1 week. A significant portion of patients with nosocomial BSIs died early, which underlines the importance of rapid recognition of BSI. Hospital-wide surveillance data of causative pathogens can be utilized when composing recommendations for empiric antimicrobial treatment in collaboration with clinicians, as well as when promoting infection prevention.

Are respiratory complications of Plasmodium vivax malaria an underestimated problem?

BACKGROUND

Respiratory complications are uncommon, but often life-threatening features of Plasmodium vivax malaria. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and lethality associated with such complications among P. vivax malaria patients in a tertiary hospital in the Western Brazilian Amazon, and to identify variables associated with severe respiratory complications, intensive care need and death. Medical records from 2009 to 2016 were reviewed aiming to identify all patients diagnosed with P. vivax malaria and respiratory complications. Prevalence, lethality and risk factors associated with WHO defined respiratory complications, intensive care need and death were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 587 vivax malaria patients were hospitalized during the study period. Thirty (5.1%) developed respiratory complications. Thirteen (43.3%) developed severe respiratory complications, intensive care was required for 12 (40%) patients and 5 (16.6%) died. On admission, anaemia and thrombocytopaenia were common findings, whereas fever was unusual. Patients presented different classes of parasitaemia and six were aparasitaemic on admission. Time to respiratory complications occurred after anti-malarials administration in 18 (60%) patients and progressed very rapidly. Seventeen patients (56.7%) had comorbidities and/or concomitant conditions, which were significantly associated to higher odds of developing severe respiratory complications, need for intensive care and death (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Respiratory complications were shown to be associated with significant mortality in this population. Patients with comorbidities and/or concomitant conditions require special attention to avoid this potential life-threatening complication.

Burden of bloodstream infection in an area of Mid-Norway 2002-2013: a prospective population-based observational study

BACKGROUND

Studies from several countries indicate that the incidence and mortality of bloodstream infection (BSI) have been increasing over time.

METHODS

We studied the burden of disease and death related to BSI in a defined geographical area of Mid-Norway, where BSI episodes were prospectively recorded by the same microbiological department during 12 consecutive years. Death from BSI was defined as death within 30 days of BSI detection. Age and sex standardized incidence and mortality rates and case fatality rates were calculated.

RESULTS

Between 2002 and 2013, 1995 episodes of BSI in 1719 patients aged 16 to 99 years were included. The overall incidence of BSI was 215 per 100,000 person-years. The incidence increased exponentially with age, particularly in males. The incidence increased from 205 to 223 per 100,000 person-years from 2002-07 to 2008-13. Escherichia coli was the most frequently isolated infective agent, followed by Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. The rate of S. pneumoniae BSI decreased over time in males (on average by 9.2% annually), but not in females. The total rate of BSI microbes with acquired resistance increased slightly over time, but did not exceed 2 episodes per 100,000 person-years. The mortality of BSI was 32 per 100,000 person-years, higher in males than in females (36 vs. 28 per 100,000 person-years) and was significantly higher in old age, particularly in males. The total BSI mortality was similar in the first and second halves of the study period, but the mortality of S. pneumoniae BSI decreased in males (15.0% annually). The crude case fatality decreased from the first to the second half of the study period (17.2% to 13.1%; p = 0.014). The rate of blood culture sampling increased more than twofold during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality of BSI remained stable during 2002-2013. At the same time, BSI incidence increased and case fatality rate decreased, perhaps because an increased rate of blood culture sampling may have led to improved detection of milder BSI episodes. Very low, yet slightly increasing rates of microbes with acquired resistance were observed.

Premature mortality of epilepsy in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from the Mortality Task Force of the International League Against Epilepsy

To determine the magnitude of risk factors and causes of premature mortality associated with epilepsy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conducted a systematic search of the literature reporting mortality and epilepsy in the World Bank-defined LMICs. We assessed the quality of the studies based on representativeness; ascertainment of cases, diagnosis, and mortality; and extracted data on standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and mortality rates in people with epilepsy. We examined risk factors and causes of death. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 19.8 (range 9.7-45.1) deaths per 1,000 people with epilepsy with a weighted median SMR of 2.6 (range 1.3-7.2) among higher-quality population-based studies. Clinical cohort studies yielded 7.1 (range 1.6-25.1) deaths per 1,000 people. The weighted median SMRs were 5.0 in male and 4.5 in female patients; relatively higher SMRs within studies were measured in children and adolescents, those with symptomatic epilepsies, and those reporting less adherence to treatment. The main causes of death in people with epilepsy living in LMICs include those directly attributable to epilepsy, which yield a mean proportional mortality ratio (PMR) of 27.3% (range 5-75.5%) derived from population-based studies. These direct causes comprise status epilepticus, with reported PMRs ranging from 5 to 56.6%, and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), with reported PMRs ranging from 1 to 18.9%. Important causes of mortality indirectly related to epilepsy include drowning, head injury, and burns. Epilepsy in LMICs has a significantly greater premature mortality, as in high-income countries, but in LMICs the excess mortality is more likely to be associated with causes attributable to lack of access to medical facilities such as status epilepticus, and preventable causes such as drowning, head injuries, and burns. This excess premature mortality could be substantially reduced with education about the risk of death and improved access to treatments, including AEDs.

Decreased mortality risk due to first acute coronary syndrome in women with postmenopausal hormone therapy use

OBJECTIVES

The role of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) in the incidence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has been studied extensively, but less is known of the impact of HT on the mortality risk due to an ACS.

STUDY DESIGN AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We extracted from a population-based ACS register, FINAMI, 7258 postmenopausal women with the first ACS. These data were combined with HT use data from the National Drug Reimbursement Register; 625 patients (9%) had used various HT regimens. The death risks due to ACS before admission to hospital, 2-28, or 29-365days after the incident ACS were compared between HT users and non-users with logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

In all follow-up time points, the ACS death risks in HT ever-users were smaller compared to non-users. Of women with HT ever use, 42% died within one year as compared with 52% of non-users (OR 0.62, p<0.001). Most deaths (84%) occurred within 28days after the ACS, and in this group 36% of women with ever use of HT (OR 0.73, p=0.002) and 30% of women with ≥5year HT use (OR 0.54, p<0.001) died as compared to 43% of the non-users. Age ≤60 or >60 years at the HT initiation was accompanied with similar reductions in ACS mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Postmenopausal HT use is accompanied with reduced mortality risk after primary ACS.

Case fatality models for epidemics in growing populations

The asymptotically homogeneous SIR model of Thieme (1992) for growing populations, with incidence depending in a general way on total population size, is reconsidered with respect to other parameterizations that give clear insight into epidemiological relevant relations and thresholds. One important feature of the present approach is case fatality as opposed to differential mortality. Although case fatality models and differential mortality models are equivalent via a transformation in parameter space, the underlying ideas and the dynamic behaviors are different, e.g. the basic reproduction number depends on differential mortality but not on case fatality. The persistent distributions and exponents of growth of infected solutions are computed and discussed in terms of the parameters. The notion of asymptotically exponentially growing state (as opposed to stationary state or exponential solution) coined by Thieme is interpreted in terms of stability theory. Of some interest are limiting cases of models without recovery where two infected solutions exist.