Temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths from 2007 to 2020 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Dengue, a disease with multifactorial determinants, is linked to population susceptibility to circulating viruses and the extent of vector infestation. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2007 to 2020. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) were utilized for the investigation. To assess the disease's progression over the study period and predict its future incidence, time series analyses were conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Over the study period, a total of 463,566 dengue cases and 125 deaths were reported. Notably, there was an increase in severe cases and deaths, marking hyperendemics characterized by simultaneous virus circulation (79.17% in 2016-50% in 2019). The generalized additive model revealed a non-linear pattern with epidemic peaks in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, indicating an explosive pattern of dengue incidence. The SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,0,0)12 model was validated for each year (2015 to 2019). Comparing the actual and predicted numbers of dengue cases, the model demonstrated its effectiveness for predicting cases in the municipality. The rising number of dengue cases emphasizes the importance of vector surveillance and control. Enhanced models and predictions by local health services will aid in anticipating necessary control measures to combat future epidemics.

Emergence of zoonotic sporotrichosis due to Sporothrix brasiliensis in Minas Gerais, Brazil: A molecular approach to the current animal disease

Sporotrichosis is a neglected fungal zoonosis with significant impacts on human and animal health. Accurate diagnosis, treatment, and understanding of the transmission dynamics of Sporothrix species are essential for mitigating the spread of sporotrichosis. This study aimed to identify the Sporothrix species involved in the ongoing outbreaks of animal sporotrichosis in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, and analyse the phylogenetic relationships between pathogenic species to investigate the outbreak origin. Additionally, to better understand the evolution of the disease, we conducted a retrospective survey of positive feline and canine cases from November 2017 to July 2021 with proven cultures for Sporothrix. A significant increase in animal cases over the last 4 years was observed, with cats being the most affected host. Sporothrix brasiliensis was the predominant agent in 100% of the clinical isolates (n = 180) molecularly identified. Phylogenetic and haplotype analysis points towards the cases isolated from Minas Gerais sharing the haplotype originating from a long-lasting outbreak of cat-transmitted sporotrichosis in Rio de Janeiro, however, with a secondary contribution from genotypes circulating in other outbreaks in Brazil. Thus, we present clear evidence of the circulation of different S. brasiliensis genotypes associated with animal sporotrichosis in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte. Genetic monitoring can contribute to understanding the causal agent for zoonotic sporotrichosis in epidemiological processes and help to implement disease prevention and control measures.

Determining the relationship between dengue and vulnerability in a Brazilian city: a spatial modeling analysis

Dengue is a viral infection transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This study aimed to assess the distribution of cases and deaths from dengue and severe dengue, and its relationship with social vulnerability in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2010 to 2018. The incidence and lethality rates of dengue and their relationship with sex, age, education, skin color, and social vulnerability were studied using chi-square tests, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analyses. The number of cases of dengue in Belo Horizonte during the study period was 324,044 dengue cases, with 1,334 cases of severe dengue and 88 deaths. During the past few decades, the incidence rate of both dengue and severe cases varied, with an average incidence rate of respectively 1515.5 and 6.2/100,000 inhabitants. The increase in dengue cases was directly related to areas with higher social vulnerability areas and more working-age people. Also, the disease is more severe in people self-declared as black, elderly, and male. The findings of this study might provide relevant information for health services in the organization of control and prevention policies for this problem, emphasizing the most vulnerable urban areas and categories.

Temporal relationship between human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in an urban area in southeastern Brazil: An application of the ARIMAX model

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease of public and animal health importance. With the urbanization of the disease, there is evidence of a temporal correlation between the occurrence of human (HVL) and canine (CVL) visceral leishmaniasis, usually with cases in dogs preceding those in humans. In this context, the objective of this study was to develop a time series model suitable for canine-human transmission of Leishmania infantum. Monthly cases of HVL and CVL from 2006 to 2018 in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were evaluated, and monthly health indicators were calculated for HVL and CVL, i.e., incidence coefficient (HVL_IC) and proportion of seropositive dogs (PSD), respectively. The temporal relationship was evaluated using an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) model for two different periods (January 2006-August 2013 and September 2013-December 2018). During the 13 years studied, 1115 new cases of HVL and 103,358 dogs seropositive for CVL were recorded. HVL_IC and PSD exhibited decreasing trends throughout the first study period (January 2006-August 2013). According to the ARIMAX model adjusted for this period, there was a temporal relationship between HVL_IC and PSD, with HVL_IC being influenced by HVL_IC for the last two and five months and by PSD for the third previous month. For the second study period (September 2013-December 2018), it was not possible to fit an ARIMAX model. This study highlights the improvements made by VL surveillance since 2006 in Belo Horizonte and contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of the disease by public health policy-makers, doctors and veterinarians involved in the prevention and control of zoonoses.

Disentangling associations between vegetation greenness and dengue in a Latin American city: Findings and challenges

Being a Re-Emerging Infectious Disease, dengue causes 390 million cases globally and is prevalent in many urban areas in South America. Understanding the fine-scale relationships between dengue incidence and environmental and socioeconomic factors can guide improved disease prevention strategies. This ecological study examines the association between dengue incidence and satellite-based vegetation greenness in 3826 census tracts nested in 474 neighborhoods in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during the 2010 dengue epidemic. To reduce potential bias in the estimated dengue-greenness association, we adjusted for socioeconomic vulnerability, population density, building height and density, land cover composition, elevation, weather patterns, and neighborhood random effects. We found that vegetation greenness was negatively associated with dengue incidence in a univariate model, and this association attenuated after controlling for additional covariates. The dengue-greenness association was modified by socioeconomic vulnerability: while a positive association was observed in the least vulnerable census tracts, the association was negative in the most vulnerable areas. Using greenness as a proxy for vegetation quality, our results show the potential of vegetation management in reducing dengue incidence, particularly in socioeconomically vulnerable areas. We also discuss the role of water infrastructure, sanitation services, and tree cover in lowering dengue risk.

Prognostic factors associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis: a case-control study in Brazil

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify the prognostic factors associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) considering the clinical evolution of patients through a case-control study.

METHODS

We randomly selected 180 cases (death caused by VL) and 180 controls (cured) from Belo Horizonte's hospitals in Brazil, according to data found in the patients' medical records. Five models of multivariate logistic regression were performed following the chronological order of the variables between the onset of the symptoms and evolution of the VL cases.

RESULTS

Considering the multivariate models and the stages of clinical evolution of VL, the prognostic factors associated with death are: age >60 y, minor hemorrhagic phenomena, increased abdominal volume, jaundice, dyspnea, malnutrition, TB, billirubin >2 mg/dL, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) or Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT) >100 U/L, leukocytes >7000/mm3, hemoglobin <7 g/dL, platelets <50 000/mm3 and infection without defined focus and bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge regarding the prognostic factors associated with death from VL in different stages of the disease in large Brazilian urban centers such as Belo Horizonte may help optimize patient management strategies and contribute to reduce the high fatality rates in these cities.

Characterization of animal sporotrichosis in a highly urbanized area

An epidemiological characterization of animal sporotrichosis was carried out between 2017 and 2018, in a highly urbanized area in Brazil, including outcomes and the spatial distribution of the cases according to the health vulnerability index (HVI) of the study territory. One hundred and sixty-five cats and four dogs suspected of sporotrichosis were identified by a surveillance and control program previously implemented in the study area. One hundred and five of these animals (62.1 %) were considered positive for Sporothrix spp., of which 103 were cats and two were dogs. Cases predominated among male cats (53.4 %), although gender did not present a statistically significant association (p > 0.05) with sporotrichosis cases. Considering the positive cats, 55.4 % were not neutered and free access to the street was reported as a habit for 86.4 % of them. Roaming free in the streets increased the chance of infection by 2.54 times. We observed a high frequency of euthanasia or death (48.8 %) among 86 infected cats available to be included in the follow-up stage of the study, even when they were treated (46.5 %) and a low cure rate (31 %). The disease spread, unrelated to the HVI in the territory. Data produced suggested that avoiding access to the street seems to have greater importance to sporotrichosis control in cats than neutering and reinforces the importance of health education, especially in relation to responsible feline ownership. The free offer of diagnosis and treatment also should be taken into consideration as important measures to control the disease.

Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city

This ecological study analyzed the temporal pattern of clinically diagnosed and laboratory confirmed dengue cases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil from 1996 to 2017. The study was divided into two analytical parts, the first of which evaluated the association between dengue incidence and host and climatic factors. The second part encompassed data from 2002 to 2017 and examined dengue incidence in relation to virus serotype and an intra-urban socioeconomic index. Over 22 years there were 469,171 cases and four epidemic peaks. There was an increase in the number, severity, and lethality of cases over the last 10 years of the study period. Biological and environmental factors appear to modulate the behavior of dengue in a large urban center.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control.

Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the intra-urban spatial dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission is important to effectively guide vector control. Ovitraps are a sensitive, cost-effective vector surveillance tool, yet few longitudinal studies have evaluated ovitrap indices and dengue occurrence. We aimed to assess the spatial patterns of dengue incidence and Ae. aegypti ovitrap positivity index (OPI) over time and to examine the spatial relationship between these two variables.

METHODS

This study used 12 years (2007-2018) of dengue case records and biweekly Ae. aegypti ovitrap data in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We aggregated data by year and health centre catchment area (n = 152) and used both univariate and bivariate global Moran's I statistic and LISA to evaluate spatial clustering.

RESULTS

Annual dengue incidence ranged from 18 to 6262/100 000 residents and displayed spatial autocorrelation in 10/12 years, with shifting areas of high incidence. Annual OPI ranged from 35.7 to 47.6% and was clustered in all study years, but unlike dengue had consistent spatial patterns over time. Bivariate analysis found both positive (6/12 years) and negative (1/12 years) spatial associations between the two variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Low detected presence of Ae. aegypti was not a limiting factor in dengue transmission. However, stable spatial distribution of OPI suggests that certain areas may have persistent breeding sites. Future research should identify factors related to persistent Ae. aegypti hotspots to better guide vector management. Vector control efforts should be paired with additional data on population immunity, circulating serotypes and urban factors to better predict and control outbreaks.

Spatiotemporal patterns and integrated approach to prioritize areas for surveillance and control of visceral leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease with worldwide distribution. Brazil is the country with the largest number of cases in the Americas, and the state of Minas Gerais presents a high VL-related burden and a high case fatality rate. We aimed to analyse the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of VL occurrence and to identify priority risk areas for surveillance and control in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte-MG, the third largest metropolitan area in Brazil. An ecological study was conducted considering all cases of VL in humans confirmed from 2006 to 2017. The crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyse the distribution patterns of the disease (dispersed, random, or clustered) based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found between incidence rates. It was possible to observe a high concentration of VL cases in the metropolitan core area, with the identification of two high-risk clusters in strictly urban areas, showing an urban association with the disease. Ten municipalities were categorised as high risk for VL occurrence. Our results provide evidence for making decisions in surveillance programs, suggesting the prioritisation of the municipalities with more risk of transmission.

Spatial association between sporotrichosis in cats and in human during a Brazilian epidemics

Sporotrichosis is a subcutaneous granulomatous disease caused by the fungus Sporothrix spp. In Brazil, S. brasiliensis is reported in regions of outbreaks and epidemics in the zoonotic form of the disease where cats play an important role in the transmission of the disease to humans. Therefore, it is important to assess how the presence of infected cats impacts the risk for sporotrichosis in humans. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial association of sporotrichosis in cats and in humans from Belo Horizonte, a Brazilian city where an epidemics of sporotrichosis occurs since the first human case register in 2015, through an inhomogeneous Poisson process model. Feline and human cases of sporotrichosis recorded between January 2016 and June 2019 were georeferenced by address and spatial point patterns were generated. Feline case intensity and human demographic density were calculated using a kernel smoothed estimate. The distance to the nearest feline case was also compute. Model parameters were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimate. The model validation was performed by the evaluation of partial residual, leverage and influence measure. There were 343 cases of cats and 135 human cases of sporotrichosis. The average incidence of human sporotrichosis in the period was 1.343 per 100 thousand inhabitants, which is relatively low in relation to the population, but higher than that observed in other regions in zoonotic outbreak of the disease. The southern region of the municipality has a higher intensity of feline cases. According to the fitted model, the risk for human sporotrichosis is greater when at distances very close to a feline case, with a virtually stable effect for distances greater than 1 km. Regarding the intensity of feline cases there is a gradual increase in risk as the intensity of cases increases. From the leverage analysis it was observed that the model was particularly sensitive to the occurrence of human cases in the south and east regions, places with extreme values ​​of covariates. Poisson point process model seems to be a reasonable approach in spatial epidemiology when multiple sources of infection are involved, and there is a low incidence of the disease as long as it is reasonable to assume independence between cases. Interventions for disease prevention and control in humans are suggested to encompass disease control in cats and the search for feline cases, focused on diagnosis and control, close to reported human cases.

Visceral leishmaniasis control actions: epidemiological indicators for its effectiveness evaluation in a Brazilian urban area

This research applies indicators concerning control of the visceral leishmaniasis canine reservoir in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Data were obtained from the Zoonoses Control Information System (SCZOO) and the Brazilian Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN) database. First we analyzed (i) existing associations between canine epidemiological indicators, where the dependent variable was the canine seroprevalence A (2007 to 2013), and the independent variables were, as follows: canine seroprevalence B (2006 to 2012); percentage of positive dogs by ELISA test reagents that were not euthanized; the relationship between the human and canine population; canine population testing coverage by census surveys; and the years of study (2006 to 2013); (ii) then, we examined the association between human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) cases between 2007 to 2013 and the mentioned variables related to dogs and years. Statistical analysis was done by a generalized linear model (GLM). One unit increases in canine seroprevalence B and canine seroprevalence A were associated to 13% and 12% increases in HVL rates, respectively. The increase in one human/dog ratio unit was associated with a 13% decrease in HVL rates. Canine seroprevalence, human/dog ratio and non-euthanasia of ELISA-reactive dogs in the environment were adequate indicators for analyzing the canine enzootic transmission and the occurrence of HVL cases.

Associated factors and spatial patterns of the epidemic sporotrichosis in a high density human populated area: A cross-sectional study from 2016 to 2018

An epidemiological characterization of human and feline sporotrichosis was carried out between 2016 and 2018, in a high density-populated area in Brazil. Professionals were trained to identify suspect cats and notify vets to interview the owners and collect swabs of the wounds from these animals. Mycological cultures were performed, and colonies identified as Sporothrix spp. Subsequently, data regarding the outcome from suspect animals were collected. Confirmed cases of human sporotrichosis (56) were also counted and analyzed for spatial distribution. 118 positive animals were observed. The prevalence of feline sporotrichosis was 8.36 ‰ (CI 95 %, 5.38-9.55 ‰). The odds for being positive in animals that lived only partially at home were 3.02 times greater than for those cats without access to the street (OR 3.02, CI 95 % 1,96-10,43). There was no statistically significant association between environmental variables and positive diagnosis, corroborating the hypothesis that direct transmission by infected cats plays a greater role in the occurrence and continuous outbreaks of sporotrichosis in Brazil. Among the positive animals, 61.90 % (CI 95 % 58.95-64.96) died, and they had an odds to die in the next six months 6.30 times greater than negative animals (p < 0.05, OR 6.30, CI 95 % 2,79-14,42). The case fatality rate was 55.08 % in cats (CI 95 % 49.20-51.15). The cause-specific death rate was 4.6 ‰ in cats (CI 95 % 3.4-6 ‰). Only 7.62 % (CI 95 % 7.12-8.16) positive cats were treated and cured. Among dead positive animals, 29.23 % were inappropriately discarded. In the study period 56 human cases were recorded in the Barreiro region. Regions with highest prevalence of feline sporotrichosis, had greater frequencies of both human and feline cases. This is the first report on the epidemic of sporotrichosis in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The free offer for treatment and veterinary care for these animals should be taken into consideration, as well as the collection and incineration of the dead ones, as measures of public health, followed by the guidance and care for the human patient.

Effectiveness of the mass use of deltamethrin-impregnated dog collars for preventing transmission of canine leishmaniasis by Lutzomyia spp.: A cluster randomized controlled trial

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a zoonosis that greatly impacts public health, especially in developing countries. The effectiveness of deltamethrin-impregnated dog collars for preventing transmission of canine leishmaniasis (CanL) by the sand fly Lutzomyia spp. in countries with high incidence of the disease, such as Brazil, remains unknown. A cluster randomized controlled trial was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of these collars in preventing infection of dogs with Leishmania infantum. Two areas were selected in a municipality endemic for VL in Brazil: an experimental area (EA) and a control area (CA). In both areas, blood samples were collected from dogs for detection of CanL. Seronegative dogs from the EA received collars impregnated with deltamethrin 4%. After six months, the dogs were retested for CanL and the incidence of the disease, the relative risk, and the effectiveness of collaring determined. In the baseline survey, 1020 dogs from the EA and 589 from the CA were examined. The prevalence calculated for EA was 4.41% (CI95% 3.27-5.91), and 7.13% (CI95% 5.25-9.59) for CA. In the second evaluation, 454 dogs from the EA and 292 from the CA were examined. The person-time incidence calculated for EA was 3.51% (CI95% 1.30-7.48), and for CA was 11.81% (CI95% 7.03-18.23). The difference between the calculated incidences was statistically significant (p = 0.009). The relative risk was 0.2972 (CI95% 0.1204-0.7339; p = 0.009), and the efficacy of the proposed measure was estimated in 70.27%. This report evaluated the effectiveness of the mass use of deltamethrin-impregnated dog collars in areas of transmission of VL by Lutzomyia spp. Collaring was able to protect dogs and may represent an effective strategy that could be implemented to control infection in both dogs and humans in Brazil and perhaps other countries where Lutzomyia spp. is the main vector of the disease.

Effectiveness of the Brazilian Visceral Leishmaniasis Surveillance and Control Programme in reducing the prevalence and incidence of Leishmania infantum infection

Background

Control strategies adopted by the Brazilian Visceral Leishmaniasis Surveillance and Control Programme (VLSCP) include identifying and culling seropositive infected dogs, early diagnosis and treatment of human cases, chemical control of the vector and population awareness. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the VLSCP on the prevalence and incidence rates of Leishmania infantum in children residing in areas under different VLSCP intervention times.

Methods

A quasi-experimental epidemiological study with a panel (two cross-sectional) and a concurrent cohort was performed in three areas of Belo Horizonte, southeast Brazil. The first cross-sectional study (I) was carried out with 1875 children, 478 of which were enrolled in the cohort study. In the second cross-sectional study (II), 413 additional children were included, totalizing 891 children. Laboratory diagnosis was performed by ELISA-rK39. Analyses included multilevel logistic and Poisson regression models.

Results

The incidence rates of L. infantum infection were: 14.4% in the area where VLSCP intervention was initiated in 2006 (AI2006); 21.1% in the area where intervention was initiated in 2008 (AI2008); and 11.6% in the area where intervention was initiated in 2010 (AI2010 - control area). A follow-up period of 24 months showed that the persons-time incidence rates in AI2006, AI2008, and AI2010 were: 6.2/100, 10/100, and 5.6/100 persons/24 months, respectively. The final prevalence rates of infection (cross-sectional II - in 2012), compared to the initial rates (cross-sectional I - in 2010), increased 83.7% in AI2006, 74.1% in AI2008, and decreased 5% in AI2010. Analysis of the effectiveness revealed that children residing in AI2008 are more likely to be infected (OR = 1.84; 95% CI: 1.06-3.23) and present a higher risk of infection (IRR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.05-2.95) compared to those in AI2010. No statistically significant differences were observed in asymptomatic infection (OR and IRR) in AI2006 compared to AI2010.

Conclusions

The VLSCP was not effective at controlling L. infantum infection in areas where interventions had respectively been carried out for six and four years. However, it is unclear what the consequences in terms of human infection and diseases would be in the absence of the VLSCP. Efforts to improve the effectiveness of control measures remain a necessary priority.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3166-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Spatial and temporal relationships between human and canine visceral leishmaniases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 2006-2013

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem in Brazil, and control of this disease constitutes a major challenge. The purpose of this study was to assess the existing spatial and temporal relationships between cases of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CanL) and human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) recorded in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, from 2006 to 2013.

METHODS

Data provided by the Belo Horizonte Health Services regarding the disease control routine were analyzed in order to perform a retrospective observational and ecological study. Information regarding the incidence rate of HVL and canine seroprevalence was examined in relation to control actions performed atthe 148 coverage areas of healthcare centers for the period between 2006 and 2013. A time series analysis was performed using the Gretl 1.9.12 software followed by the assessment of the existing increasing or declining trend and seasonality in the occurrence of CanL and HVL. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were adjusted, intervention analysis was performed, vector autoregressive models were developed, and Granger causality was used for testing temporal relationships between variables. The hot spot analysis tool was used for cluster identification through Getis-OrdGi statistics. The ArcGis for desktop 10.2.1 software was used for spatial analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 866 HVL cases in Belo Horizonte between 2006 and 2013. The mean proportion of canine seroprevalence (PCP) was 7.31% and the mean proportion of monitored hosts (PMH) was 6.73%.HVL and PCP showed a decreasing trend, while PMH increased over time (P<0.05). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Granger analysis showed a temporal relation between CanL and HVL cases. Maps illustrating the spatial distribution of cases and obituaries of HVL and CanL cases also showed an apparent association between the occurrence of leishmaniasis in humans, and data about canine cases recorded in the previous years.

CONCLUSIONS

Cases of HVL were preceded by PMH and PCP cases. Similar results were observed for intraspecific cases (i.e. between PCP and other canine cases and between HVL and other HVL cases), which indicated the existence of favorable environmental conditions for the transmission and spread of L. infantum in Belo Horizonte.

Spatial and temporal trends of visceral leishmaniasis by mesoregion in a southeastern state of Brazil, 2002-2013

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is expanding in Brazil and in other South American countries, a process that has been associated with the urbanization of the disease. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution of VL in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais and identifies the areas with higher risks of transmission.

Methodology

An ecological study with spatial and time series analyzes of new confirmed cases of VL notified to the Brazilian Notifiable Disease Information System between 2002 and 2013, considering the 12 mesoregions of Minas Gerais. Two complementary methodologies were used: thematic maps of incidence and Poisson (log-linear) generalized linear model. Thematic maps using crude and smoothed cumulative incidences were generated for four trienniums. Poisson Regression measured the variation of the average number of cases from one year to the following, for each mesoregion.

Principal findings

The 5,778 cases analyzed revealed a heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution of VL in Minas Gerais. Six mesoregions (Central Mineira, Jequitinhonha, Metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Northwest of Minas, North of Minas, and Vale do Rio Doce) were responsible for the expansion and maintenance of VL, with incidence rates as high as 26/100,000 inhabitants. The Vale do Rio Doce and Jequitinhonha mesoregions showed a considerable increase in the incidence rates in the last period studied. The other six mesoregions reported only sporadic cases and presented low and unsteady incidence rates, reaching a maximum of 1.2/100,000 inhabitants.

Conclusions/Significance

The results contribute to further the current understanding about the expansion of VL in Minas Gerais and may help guide actions for disease control.

This article presents the spatial and temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Minas Gerais State and identifies the greater risk areas of transmission. This study is both timely and substantive because Minas Gerais is an important Brazilian state in the number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis. The results showed that during the 12-year time series the VL had a heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution in the state of Minas Gerais. Among the 12 existing mesoregions, six (Central Mineira, Jequitinhonha, Metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Northwest of Minas, North of Minas, and Vale do Rio Doce) were responsible for the expansion and maintenance of VL in the state. Among them, the Vale do Rio Doce and Jequitinhonha mesoregions presented a considerable increase in the incidence rates of the disease in the last period. In the other six mesoregions only sporadic cases of the disease were reported during the study period. The results of in this study may contribute to a better understanding the dynamic of the disease in Minas Gerais. Also these findings can provide subsidies to assist the actions of the control program of VL.

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis in urban households as risk factor of transmission of visceral leishmaniasis

Urban occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is linked to households with characteristics conducive to the presence of sand flies. This study proposes an ad hoc classification of households according to the environmental characteristics of receptivity to phlebotominae and an entomological study to validate the proposal. Here we describe the phlebotominae population found in intra- and peridomiciliary environments and analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the VL vector Lutzomyia longipalpis of households receptive to VL. In the region, 153 households were classified into levels of receptivity to VL followed by entomological surveys in 40 of those properties. Kruskal-Wallis verified the relationship between the households' classification and sand fly abundance and Kernel analysis evaluated L. longipalpis spatial distribution: of the 740 sand flies were captured, 91% were L. longipalpis; 82% were found peridomiciliary whilst the remaining 18% were found intradomiciliary. No statistically significant association was found between sandflies and households levels. L. longipalpis counts were concentrated in areas of high vulnerability and some specific households were responsible for the persistence of the infestation. L. longipalpis prevails over other sand fly species for urban VL transmission. The entomological study may help target the surveillance and vector control strategies to domiciles initiating and/or maintaining VL outbreaks.

Performance of a rapid diagnostic test for the detection of visceral leishmaniasis in a large urban setting

INTRODUCTION

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) may improve the early detection of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), but their real-world performance requires additional study. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of an rK39-based RDT (Kalazar Detect™) for the detection of VL in an endemic, large urban area.

METHODS

Data were collected from a registry of rK39 RDT performed at 11 emergency care units in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, and from a national database of reportable communicable diseases of the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN).

RESULTS

The rapid rK39 test was performed in 476 patients, with 114 (23.9%) positive results. The analysis of rK39 RDT performance was based on 381 (80%) cases reported to the SINAN database, of which 145 (38.1%) were confirmed cases. Estimates for sensitivity and specificity were 72.4% (95% CI: 64.6-79%) and 99.6% (95%CI: 97.6-99.9%), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were estimated at 99.1% (95%CI: 94.9-99.8%) and 85.5% (95%CI: 80.8-89.1%), respectively. In addition, close agreement between the rK39 RDT and indirect immunofluorescence was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, the rK39 RDT showed a high specificity but only moderate sensitivity. In endemic areas for VL, treatment may be considered in cases with clinical manifestations and a positive rK39 RDT, but those with a negative test should be subjected to further investigation.

Evaluation of change in canine diagnosis protocol adopted by the visceral leishmaniasis control program in Brazil and a new proposal for diagnosis

The techniques used for diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in Brazil ELISA and IFAT have been extensively questioned because of the accuracy of these tests. A recent change in the diagnosis protocol excluded IFAT and included the Dual-Path Platform (DPP). We evaluated the prevalence and incidence rates of Leishmania spp. before and after the change in the protocol. In addition, based on our results, we propose a new alternative that is less expensive for the screening and confirmation of CVL. Plasma samples were obtained from a serobank from dogs evaluated in a cross-sectional study (1,226 dogs) and in a cohort study of susceptible animals (n = 447), followed for 26 months. Serology testing was performed using ELISA, IFAT, and DPP. The incidence and prevalence of CVL were determined by using the protocol of the Visceral Leishmaniasis Control and Surveillance Program until 2012 (ELISA and IFAT using filter paper) and the protocol used after 2012 (DPP and ELISA using plasma). The prevalence was 6.2% and the incidence was 2.8 per 1,000 dog-months for the protocol used until 2012. For the new diagnosis protocol for CVL resulted in an incidence of 5.4 per 1,000 dog-months and a prevalence of 8.1%. Our results showed that the prevalence and incidence of infection were far greater than suggested by the previously used protocol and that the magnitude of infection in endemic areas has been underestimated. As tests are performed sequentially and euthanasia of dogs is carried out when the serological results are positive in both tests, the sequence does not affect the number of animals to be eliminated by the Control Program. Then we suggest to municipalities with a large demand of exams to use ELISA for screening and DPP for confirmation, since this allows easier performance and reduced cost.

Low parasite load estimated by qPCR in a cohort of children living in urban area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

BACKGROUND

An important issue associated with the control of visceral leishmaniasis is the need to identify and understand the relevance of asymptomatic infection caused by Leishmania infantum. The aim of this study was to follow the course of asymptomatic L. infantum infection in children in an area of Brazil where it is endemic. The children were assessed twice during a 12-month period.

METHODOLOGY

In this population study, 1875 children, ranging from 6 months to 7 years of age, were assessed. Blood samples were collected on filter papers via finger prick and tested by ELISA (L. infantum soluble antigen and rk39). Seropositives samples (n = 317) and a number of seronegatives samples (n = 242) were subjected to qPCR. After 12 months, blood samples were collected from a subgroup of 199 children and tested for Leishmania spp. to follow the course of infection.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

At baseline qPCR testing identified 82 positive samples. The prevalence rate, as estimated for 1875 children based on the qPCR results, was 13.9%. The qPCR testing of whole blood samples collected from a cohort of children after 12 months (n = 199) yielded the following results: of the 44 (22.1%) children with positive qPCR results at baseline, only 10 (5.0%) remained positive, and 34 (17.1%) became negative; and of the 155 (77.9%) children with negative qPCR results, 131 (65.8%) remained negative, and 24 (12.1%) became positive at the follow-up measurement. The samples with positive findings at baseline (n = 82) had a mean of 56.5 parasites/mL of blood; and at follow-up the mean positive result was 7.8 parasites/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

The peripheral blood of asymptomatic children had a low and fluctuating quantity of Leishmania DNA and a significant decrease in parasitemia at 1-year follow-up. Quantitative PCR enables adequate monitoring of Leishmania infection.

Early clinical manifestations associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis

BACKGROUND

In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil).

METHODOLOGY

The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002-2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Model 1 (period 2002-2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007-2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3-6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2-4.8) and age ≥60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5-4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2-10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3-7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7-27.2) and age ≥60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4-7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality.

Prevalence and factors associated with Leishmania infantum infection of dogs from an urban area of Brazil as identified by molecular methods

Background

Various factors contribute to the urbanization of the visceral leishmaniasis (VL), including the difficulties of implementing control measures relating to the domestic reservoir. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis in an urban endemic area in Brazil and the factors associated with Leishmania infantum infection among seronegative and PCR-positive dogs.

Methodology

A cross-sectional study was conducted in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Blood samples were collected from 1,443 dogs. Serology was carried out by using two enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Biomanguinhos/FIOCRUZ/RJ and “in house”), and molecular methods were developed, including PCR-RFLP. To identify the factors associated with early stages of infection, only seronegative (n = 1,213) animals were evaluated. These animals were divided into two groups: PCR-positive (n = 296) and PCR-negative (n = 917) for L. infantum DNA. A comparison of these two groups of dogs taking into consideration the characteristics of the animals and their owners was performed. A mixed logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with L. infantum infection.

Principal Findings

Of the 1,443 dogs examined, 230 (15.9%) were seropositive in at least one ELISA, whereas PCR-RFLP revealed that 356 animals (24.7%) were positive for L. infantum DNA. Results indicated that the associated factors with infection were family income<twice the Brazilian minimum salary (OR 2.3; 95%CI 1.4–3.8), knowledge of the owner regarding the vector (OR 1.9; 95%CI 1.1–3.4), the dog staying predominantly in the backyard (OR 2.2; 95%CI 1.1–4.1), and a lack of previous serological examination for VL (OR 1.5; 95%CI 1.1–2.3).

Conclusions

PCR detected a high prevalence of L. infantum infection in dogs in an area under the Control Program of VL intervention. Socioeconomic variables, dog behavior and the knowledge of the owner regarding the vector were factors associated with canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL). The absence of previous serological examination conducted by the control program was also associated with L. infantum infection. It is necessary to identify the risk factors associated with CVL to understand the expansion and urbanization of VL.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a disease caused by the parasite Leishmania infantum, and dogs are the most important domestic reservoirs of the agent. During recent decades, VL has expanded to large Brazilian urban centers. In the present work, we have demonstrated by using molecular techniques that the rate of canine infection as detected by serology has been considerably underestimated. Two groups of seronegative dogs (infected and non-infected according to molecular methods) were further evaluated from data obtained through interviews with owners of the animals. The factors associated with Leishmania infection in dogs were a family income of less than two minimum salaries, the knowledge of the owner regarding the vector, the dog spending most of its time in the backyard and the dog never having had a previous serological examination. Awareness regarding the factors associated with canine infection will improve health services and the understanding of the disease's expansion in urban areas.

Visceral leishmaniasis in large Brazilian cities: challenges for control

The objectives of this article were to discuss the rapid spread of visceral leishmaniasis in urban areas of Brazil and to raise practical questions and perspectives related to control of the disease. Among the proposed methods, the elimination of seropositive dogs is the most controversial and least accepted by society. Its impact on incidence rates varies among studies (positive in some and relatively unimportant in others). Treatment of infected dogs, although widespread in veterinary practice, is based on studies with weak scientific evidence. Insecticide spraying of areas is more acceptable to the population, but is costly and operationally difficult. Intra and inter-urban factors have scarcely been studied and may affect control of the disease. Finally, the article discusses the use of deltamethrin-impregnated dog collars and vaccines, with high expectations for impact on disease transmission, although no product currently available on the market has been fully evaluated, so that further studies are required.