Sex Differences in the Generalizability of Randomized Clinical Trials in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

AIMS

To understand how sex differences impact the generalizability of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF, we sought to compare clinical characteristics and clinical outcomes between RCTs and HF observational registries stratified by sex.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from 2 HF registries and 5 HFrEF RCTs were used to create three subpopulations: one RCT population (n=16,917; 21.7% females), registry patients eligible for RCT inclusion (n=26,104; 31.8% females), and registry patients ineligible for RCT inclusion (n=20,910; 30.2% females). Clinical endpoints included all-cause mortality, CV mortality, and first HF hospitalization at one-year. Males and females were equally eligible for trial enrollment (56.9% of females and 55.1% of males in the registries). One-year mortality rates were 5.6%, 14.0%, and 28.6% for females and 6.9%, 10.7%, and 24.6% for males in the RCT, RCT-eligible, and RCT-ineligible groups. After adjusting for 11 HF prognostic variables, RCT females showed higher survival compared to RCT-eligible females (Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.72; 95% CI 0.62 - 0.83), while RCT males showed higher adjusted mortality rates compared to RCT-eligible males (SMR 1.16; 95% CI 1.09-1.24). Similar results were also found for cardiovascular mortality (SMR 0.89; 95%CI 0.76-1.03 for females, SMR 1.43; 95%CI 1.33-1.53 for males).

CONCLUSION

Generalizability of HFrEF RCTs differed substantially between the sexes, with females having lower trial participation and females trial participants having lower mortality rates compared to similar females in the registries, while males had higher than expected cardiovascular mortality rates in RCTs compared to similar males in registries. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Effect of disease related biases on the subjective assessment of social functioning in Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia patients

BACKGROUND

Questionnaires are the current hallmark for quantifying social functioning in human clinical research. In this study, we compared self- and proxy-rated (caregiver and researcher) assessments of social functioning in Schizophrenia (SZ) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and evaluated if the discrepancy between the two assessments is mediated by disease-related factors such as symptom severity.

METHODS

We selected five items from the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS) to assess social functioning in 53 AD and 61 SZ patients. Caregiver- and researcher-rated assessments of social functioning were used to calculate the discrepancies between self-rated and proxy-rated assessments. Furthermore, we used the number of communication events via smartphones to compare the questionnaire outcomes with an objective measure of social behaviour.

RESULTS

WHODAS results revealed that both AD (p < 0.001) and SZ (p < 0.004) patients significantly overestimate their social functioning relative to the assessment of their caregivers and/or researchers. This overestimation is mediated by the severity of cognitive impairments (MMSE; p = 0.019) in AD, and negative symptoms (PANSS; p = 0.028) in SZ. Subsequently, we showed that the proxy scores correlated more strongly with the smartphone communication events of the patient when compared to the patient-rated questionnaire scores (self; p = 0.076, caregiver; p < 0.001, researcher-rated; p = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

Here we show that the observed overestimation of WHODAS social functioning scores in AD and SZ patients is partly driven by disease-related biases such as cognitive impairments and negative symptoms, respectively. Therefore, we postulate the development and implementation of objective measures of social functioning that may be less susceptible to such biases.

Does the effectiveness of IUI in couples with unexplained subfertility depend on their prognosis of natural conception? A replication of the H2Oil study

STUDY QUESTION

Can we replicate the finding that the benefit of IUI-ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) compared to expectant management for couples with unexplained subfertility depends on the prognosis of natural conception?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The estimated benefit of IUI-OS did not depend on the prognosis of natural conception but did depend on when treatment was started after diagnosis, with starting IUI-OS later yielding a larger absolute and relative benefit of treatment.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IUI-OS is often the first-line treatment for couples with unexplained subfertility. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) compared IUI-OS to expectant management using different thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception as inclusion criteria and found different results. In a previous study (a Dutch national cohort), it was found that the benefit of IUI-OS compared to expectant management seemed dependent on the prognosis of natural conception, but this finding warrants replication.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

We conducted a secondary analysis of the H2Oil study (n = 1119), a multicentre RCT that evaluated the effect of oil-based contrast versus water-based contrast during hysterosalpingography (HSG). Couples were randomized before HSG and followed up for 3-5 years. We selected couples with unexplained subfertility who received HSG and had follow-up or pregnancy data available. Follow-up was censored at the start of IVF, after the last IUI cycle or at last contact and was truncated at a maximum of 18 months after the fertility workup.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

The endpoint was time to conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy. We used the sequential Cox approach comparing in each month the ongoing pregnancy rates over the next 6 months of couples who started IUI-OS to couples who did not. We calculated the prognosis of natural conception for individual couples, updated this over consecutive failed cycles and evaluated whether prognosis modified the effect of starting IUI-OS. We corrected for known predictors of conception using inverse probability weighting.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Data from 975 couples were available. There were 587 couples who received at least one IUI-OS cycle within 18 months after HSG of whom 221 conceived leading to an ongoing pregnancy (rate: 0.74 per couple per year over a median follow-up for IUI of 5 months). The median period between HSG and starting IUI-OS was 4 months. Out of 388 untreated couples, 299 conceived naturally (rate: 0.56 per couple per year over a median follow-up of 4 months). After creating our mimicked trial datasets, starting IUI-OS was associated with a higher chance of ongoing pregnancy by a pooled, overall hazard ratio of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.19-1.89) compared to expectant management. We did not find strong evidence that the effect of treatment was modified by a couple's prognosis of achieving natural conception (Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) decreased by 1 point). The effect of treatment was dependent on when couples started IUI-OS (AIC decreased by more than 2 points). The patterns of estimated absolute chances over time for couples with increasingly better prognoses were different from the previous study but the finding that starting later yields a larger benefit of treatment was similar. We found IUI-OS increased the absolute chance of pregnancy by at least 5% compared to expectant management. The absolute chance of pregnancy after IUI-OS seems less variable between couples and starting times of treatment than the absolute chance after expectant management.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

This is a secondary analysis, as the H2Oil trial was not designed with this research question in mind. Owing to sample size restrictions, it remained difficult to distinguish between the ranges of prognoses in which true benefit was found.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We replicated the finding that starting IUI-OS later after diagnosis yields a larger absolute and relative benefit of treatment. We did not replicate the dependency of the effect of IUI-OS on the prognosis of natural conception and could not identify clear thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception when IUI-OS was and/or was not effective. Because many of these couples still have good chances of natural conception at the time of diagnosis, we suggest clinicians should advise couples to delay the start of IUI-OS for several months to avoid unnecessary treatment.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The H2Oil study (NTR 3270) was an investigator-initiated study that was funded by the two academic institutions (AMC and VUmc) of the Amsterdam UMC. The follow-up study (NTR 6577) was also an investigator-initiated study with funding by Guerbet, France. The funders had no role in study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of the data. B.W.M. is supported by an Investigator grant (GNT1176437) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). K.D. reports receiving travel and speaker fees from Guerbet. B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, Merck KGaA, iGenomix and Guerbet. V.M. reports receiving travel- and speaker fees as well as research grants from Guerbet.

Cost-effectiveness of medically assisted reproduction or expectant management for unexplained subfertility: when to start treatment?

STUDY QUESTION

Over a time period of 3 years, which order of expectant management (EM), IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) and IVF is the most cost-effective for couples with unexplained subfertility with the female age below 38 years?

SUMMARY ANSWER

If a live birth is considered worth €32 000 or less, 2 years of EM followed by IVF was the most cost-effective, whereas above €32 000 this was 1 year of EM, 1 year of IUI-OS and then 1 year of IVF.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IUI-OS and IVF are commonly used fertility treatments for unexplained subfertility although many couples can conceive naturally, as no identifiable barrier to conception could be found by definition. Few countries have guidelines on when to proceed with medically assisted reproduction (MAR), mostly based on the expected probability of live birth after treatment, but there is a lack of evidence to support the strategies proposed by these guidelines. The increased uptake of IUI-OS and IVF over the past decades and costs related to reimbursement of these treatments are pressing concerns to health service providers. For MAR to remain affordable, sustainable and a responsible use of public funds, guidance is needed on the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for unexplained subfertility, including EM.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We developed a decision analytic Markov model that follows couples with unexplained subfertility of which the woman is under 38 years of age for a time period of 3 years from completion of the fertility workup onwards. We divided the time axis of 3 years into three separate periods, each comprising 1 year. The model was based on contemporary evidence, most notably the dynamic prediction model for natural conception, which was combined with MAR treatment effects from a network meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials. We changed the order of options for managing unexplained subfertility for the 1 year periods to yield five different treatment policies in total: IVF-EM-EM (immediate IVF), EM-IVF-EM (delayed IVF), EM-EM-IVF (postponed IVF), IUIOS-IVF-EM (immediate IUI-OS) and EM-IUIOS-IVF (delayed IUI-OS).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The main outcomes per policy over the 3-year period were the probability of live birth, the average treatment and delivery costs, the probability of multiple pregnancy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and finally, which policy yields the highest net benefit in which costs for a policy were deducted from the health effects, i.e. live births gained. We chose the Dutch societal perspective, but the model can be easily modified for other locations or other perspectives. The probability of live birth after EM was taken from the dynamic prediction model for natural conception and updated for Years 2 and 3. The relative effects of IUI-OS and IVF in terms of odds ratios, taken from the network meta-analysis, were applied to the probability of live birth after EM. We applied standard discounting procedures for economic analyses for Years 2 and 3. The uncertainty around effectiveness, costs and other parameters was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which we drew values from distributions and repeated this procedure 20 000 times. In addition, we changed model assumptions to assess their influence on our results.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

From IVF-EM-EM to EM-IUIOS-IVF, the probability of live birth varied from approximately 54-64% and the average costs from approximately €4000 to €9000. The policies IVF-EM-EM and EM-IVF-EM were dominated by EM-EM-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. The policy IUIOS-IVF-EM was dominated by EM-IUIOS-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. After removal of policies that were dominated, the ICER for EM-IUIOS-IVF was approximately €31 000 compared to EM-EM-IVF. The range of ICER values between the lowest 25% and highest 75% of simulation replications was broad. The net benefit curve showed that when we assume a live birth to be worth approximately €20 000 or less, the policy EM-EM-IVF had the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit. Between €20 000 and €50 000 monetary value per live birth, it was uncertain whether EM-EM-IVF was better than EM-IUIOS-IVF, with the turning point of €32 000. When we assume a monetary value per live birth over €50 000, the policy with the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit was EM-IUIOS-IVF. Results for subgroups with different baseline prognoses showed the same policies dominated and the same two policies that were the most likely to achieve the highest net benefit but at different threshold values for the assumed monetary value per live birth.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our model focused on population level and was thus based on average costs for the average number of cycles conducted. We also based the model on a number of key assumptions. We changed model assumptions to assess the influence of these assumptions on our results. The change in relative effectiveness of IVF over time was found to be highly influential on results and their interpretation.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

EM-EM-IVF and EM-IUIOS-IVF followed by IVF were the most cost-effective policies. The choice depends on the monetary value assigned to a live birth. The results of our study can be used in discussions between clinicians, couples and policy makers to decide on a sustainable treatment protocol based on the probability of live birth, the costs and the limitations of MAR treatment.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by the ZonMw Doelmatigheidsonderzoek (80-85200-98-91072). The funder had no role in the design, conduct or reporting of this work. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA and Guerbet and travel and research support from ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Predicting the chances of having a baby with or without treatment at different time points in couples with unexplained subfertility

STUDY QUESTION

Can we develop a prediction model that can estimate the chances of conception leading to live birth with and without treatment at different points in time in couples with unexplained subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Yes, a dynamic model was developed that predicted the probability of conceiving under expectant management and following active treatments (in vitro fertilisation (IVF), intrauterine insemination with ovarian stimulation (IUI + SO), clomiphene) at different points in time since diagnosis.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Couples with no identified cause for their subfertility continue to have a realistic chance of conceiving naturally, which makes it difficult for clinicians to decide when to intervene. Previous fertility prediction models have attempted to address this by separately estimating either the chances of natural conception or the chances of conception following certain treatments. These models only make predictions at a single point in time and are therefore inadequate for informing continued decision-making at subsequent consultations.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A population-based study of 1316 couples with unexplained subfertility attending a regional clinic between 1998 and 2011.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

A dynamic prediction model was developed that estimates the chances of conception within 6 months from the point when a diagnosis of unexplained subfertility was made. These predictions were recomputed each month to provide a dynamic assessment of the individualised chances of conception while taking account of treatment status in each month. Conception must have led to live birth and treatments included clomiphene, IUI + SO, and IVF. Predictions for natural conception were externally validated using a prospective cohort from The Netherlands.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 554 (42%) couples started fertility treatment within 2 years of their first fertility consultation. The natural conception leading to live birth rate was 0.24 natural conceptions per couple per year. Active treatment had a higher chance of conception compared to those who remained under expectant management. This association ranged from weak with clomiphene to strong with IVF [clomiphene, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.91); IUI + SO, HR = 2.90 (2.06 to 4.08); IVF, HR = 5.09 (4.04 to 6.40)]. Female age and duration of subfertility were significant predictors, without clear interaction with the relative effect of treatment.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

We were unable to adjust for other potentially important predictors, e.g. measures of ovarian reserve, which were not available in the linked Grampian dataset that may have made predictions more specific. This study was conducted using single centre data meaning that it may not be generalizable to other centres. However, the model performed as well as previous models in reproductive medicine when externally validated using the Dutch cohort.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

For the first time, it is possible to estimate the chances of conception following expectant management and different fertility treatments over time in couples with unexplained subfertility. This information will help inform couples and their clinicians of their likely chances of success, which may help manage expectations, not only at diagnostic workup completion but also throughout their fertility journey.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office postdoctoral training fellowship in health services research and health of the public research (ref PDF/12/06). B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, and Guerbet. None of the other authors declare any conflicts of interest.

Is IUI with ovarian stimulation effective in couples with unexplained subfertility?

STUDY QUESTION

Does starting IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) within 1.5 years after completion of the fertility workup increase ongoing pregnancy rates compared to expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

IUI-OS is associated with higher chances of ongoing pregnancy compared to expectant management in unexplained subfertile couples, specifically those with poor prognoses of natural conception, i.e. <15% over 6 months or <25% over 1 year.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IUI-OS is often the first-line treatment for couples with unexplained subfertility. Two randomized controlled trials compared IUI-OS to expectant management using different thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception as inclusion criteria and found conflicting results. A cohort of couples with unexplained subfertility exposed to expectant management and IUI-OS offers an opportunity to determine the chances of conception after both strategies and to evaluate whether the effect of IUI-OS depends on a couple's prognosis of natural conception.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A prospective cohort study on couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility who could start IUI-OS at any point after completion of the fertility workup, recruited in seven Dutch centres between January 2002 and February 2004. Decisions regarding treatment were subject to local protocols, the judgement of the clinician and the wishes of the couple. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 106 were excluded. Follow up was censored at the start of IVF, after the last IUI cycle or at last contact and truncated at a maximum of 1.5 years after the fertility workup.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The endpoint was time to conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy. We used the sequential Cox approach comparing in each month ongoing pregnancy rates over the next 6 months of couples who started IUI-OS to couples who did not. We calculated the prognosis of natural conception for individual couples, updated this over consecutive failed cycles and evaluated whether prognosis modified the effect of starting IUI-OS. We corrected for known predictors of conception using inverse probability weighting.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Data from 1896 couples were available. There were 800 couples whom had at least one IUI-OS cycle within 1.5 years post fertility workup of whom 142 couples conceived (rate: 0.50 per couple per year, median follow up 4 months). The median period between fertility workup completion and starting IUI-OS was 6.5 months. Out of 1096 untreated couples, 386 conceived naturally (rate: 0.31 per couple per year, median follow up 7 months). Starting IUI-OS was associated with a higher chance of ongoing pregnancy by a pooled, overall hazard ratio of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.47-2.62) compared to expectant management. The effect of treatment was modified by a couple's prognosis of achieving natural conception (P = 0.01), with poorer prognoses or additional failed natural cycles being associated with a stronger effect of treatment. The predicted 6-month ongoing pregnancy rate for a couple with a prognosis of 25% at completion of the fertility workup over the next six cycles (~40% over 1 year) was 25% (95% CI: 21-28%) for expectant management and 24% (95% CI: 9-36%) when starting IUI-OS directly. For a couple with a prognosis of 15% (25% over 1 year), these predicted rates were 17% (95% CI: 15-19%) for expectant management and 24% (95% CI: 15-32%) for starting IUI-OS.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The effect estimates are based on a prospective cohort followed up for 1.5 years after completion of the fertility workup. Although we balanced the known predictors of conception between treated and untreated couples using inverse probability weighting, observational data may be subject to residual confounding. The results need to be confirmed in external datasets.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

These results explain the discrepancies between previous trials that compared IUI-OS to expectant management, but further studies are required to establish the threshold at which IUI-OS is (cost-)effective.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was facilitated by (Grant 945/12/002) from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. S.B. reports acting as Editor-in-Chief of HROpen. The other authors have no conflicts of interest.

External validation of a dynamic prediction model for repeated predictions of natural conception over time

STUDY QUESTION

How well does a previously developed dynamic prediction model perform in an external, geographical validation in terms of predicting the chances of natural conception at various points in time?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The dynamic prediction model performs well in an external validation on a Scottish cohort.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Prediction models provide information that can aid evidence-based management of unexplained subfertile couples. We developed a dynamic prediction model for natural conception (van Eekelen model) that is able to update predictions of natural conception when couples return to their clinician after a period of unsuccessful expectant management. It is not known how well this model performs in an external population.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A record-linked registry study including the long-term follow-up of all couples who were considered unexplained subfertile following a fertility workup at a Scottish fertility clinic between 1998 and 2011. Couples with anovulation, uni/bilateral tubal occlusion, mild/severe endometriosis or impaired semen quality according to World Health Organization criteria were excluded.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The endpoint was time to natural conception, leading to an ongoing pregnancy (defined as reaching a gestational age of at least 12 weeks). Follow-up was censored at the start of treatment, at the change of partner or at the end of study (31 March 2012). The performance of the van Eekelen model was evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination at various points in time. Additionally, we assessed the clinical utility of the model in terms of the range of the calculated predictions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Of a total of 1203 couples with a median follow-up of 1 year and 3 months after the fertility workup, 398 (33%) couples conceived naturally leading to an ongoing pregnancy. Using the dynamic prediction model, the mean probability of natural conception over the course of the first year after the fertility workup was estimated at 25% (observed: 23%). After 0.5, 1 and 1.5 years of expectant management after the completion of the fertility workup, the average probability of conceiving naturally over the next year was estimated at 18% (observed: 15%), 14% (observed: 14%) and 12% (observed: 12%). Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted chances and the observed fraction of ongoing pregnancy within risk groups. Discrimination was moderate with c statistics similar to those in the internal validation, ranging from 0.60 to 0.64. The range of predicted chances was sufficiently wide to distinguish between couples having a good and poor prognosis with a minimum of zero at all times and a maximum of 55% over the first year after the workup, which decreased to maxima of 43% after 0.5 years, 34% after 1 year and 29% after 1.5 years after the fertility workup.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The model slightly overestimated the chances of conception by ~2-3% points on group level in the first-year post-fertility workup and after 0.5 years of expectant management, respectively. This is likely attributable to the fact that the exact dates of completion of the fertility workup for couples were missing and had to be estimated.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The van Eekelen model is a valid and robust tool that is ready to use in clinical practice to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility on their individualized chances of natural conception at various points in time, notably when couples return to the clinic after a period of unsuccessful expectant management.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office postdoctoral training fellowship in health services research and health of the public research (ref PDF/12/06). There are no conflicts of interest.

IVF for unexplained subfertility; whom should we treat?

STUDY QUESTION

Which couples with unexplained subfertility can expect increased chances of ongoing pregnancy with IVF compared to expectant management?

SUMMARY ANSWER

For couples in which the woman is under 40 years of age, IVF is associated with higher chances of conception than expectant management.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The clinical indications for IVF have expanded over time from bilateral tubal blockage to include unexplained subfertility in which there is no identifiable barrier to conception. Yet, there is little evidence from randomized controlled trials that IVF is effective in these couples.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We compared outcomes in British couples with unexplained subfertility undergoing IVF (n = 40 921) from registry data to couples with the same type of subfertility on expectant management. Those couples on expectant management (defined as no intervention aside from the advice to have intercourse) comprised a prospective nation-wide Dutch cohort (n = 4875) and a retrospective regional cohort from Aberdeen, Scotland (n = 975). We excluded couples who had tried for <1 year to conceive and also those with anovulation, uni- or bilateral tubal occlusion, mild or severe endometriosis or male subfertility i.e. impaired semen quality according to World Health Organization criteria.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We matched couples who received IVF and couples on expectant management based on their characteristics to control for confounding. We fitted a Cox proportional hazards model including patient characteristics, IVF treatment and their interactions to estimate the individualized chance of conception over 1 year—either following IVF or expectant management for all combinations of patient characteristics. The endpoint was conception leading to ongoing pregnancy, defined as a foetus reaching a gestational age of at least 12 weeks.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The adjusted 1-year chance of conception was 47.9% (95% CI: 45.0–50.9) after IVF and 26.1% (95% CI: 24.2–28.0) after expectant management. The absolute difference in the average adjusted 1-year chances of conception was 21.8% (95%CI: 18.3–25.3) in favour of IVF. The effectiveness of IVF was influenced by female age, duration of subfertility and previous pregnancy. IVF was effective in women under 40 years, but the 1-year chance of an IVF conception declined sharply in women over 34 years. In contrast, in woman over 40 years of age, IVF was less effective, with an absolute difference in chance compared to expectant management of 10% or lower. Regardless of female age, IVF was also less effective in couples with a short period of secondary subfertility (1 year) who had chances of natural conception of 30% or above.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The 1-year chances of conception were based on three cohorts with different sampling mechanisms. Despite adjustment for the three most important prognostic patient characteristics, namely female age, duration of subfertility and primary or secondary subfertility, our estimates might not be free from residual confounding.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

IVF should be used selectively based on judgements on gain compared to continuing expectant management for a given couple. Our results can be used by clinicians to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility, to inform their expectations and facilitate evidence-based, shared decision making.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by Tenovus Scotland [grant G17.04]. Travel for RvE was supported by the Amsterdam Reproduction & Development Research Group [grant V.000296]. SB reports acting as editor-in-chief of HROpen. Other authors have no conflicts.

Comparing methods to combine functional loss and mortality in clinical trials for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Objective

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) clinical trials based on single end points only partially capture the full treatment effect when both function and mortality are affected, and may falsely dismiss efficacious drugs as futile. We aimed to investigate the statistical properties of several strategies for the simultaneous analysis of function and mortality in ALS clinical trials.

Methods

Based on the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database, we simulated longitudinal patterns of functional decline, defined by the revised amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale (ALSFRS-R) and conditional survival time. Different treatment scenarios with varying effect sizes were simulated with follow-up ranging from 12 to 18 months. We considered the following analytical strategies: 1) Cox model; 2) linear mixed effects (LME) model; 3) omnibus test based on Cox and LME models; 4) composite time-to-6-point decrease or death; 5) combined assessment of function and survival (CAFS); and 6) test based on joint modeling framework. For each analytical strategy, we calculated the empirical power and sample size.

Results

Both Cox and LME models have increased false-negative rates when treatment exclusively affects either function or survival. The joint model has superior power compared to other strategies. The composite end point increases false-negative rates among all treatment scenarios. To detect a 15% reduction in ALSFRS-R decline and 34% decline in hazard with 80% power after 18 months, the Cox model requires 524 patients, the LME model 794 patients, the omnibus test 526 patients, the composite end point 1,274 patients, the CAFS 576 patients and the joint model 464 patients.

Conclusion

Joint models have superior statistical power to analyze simultaneous effects on survival and function and may circumvent pitfalls encountered by other end points. Optimizing trial end points is essential, as selecting suboptimal outcomes may disguise important treatment clues.

Predictors of mortality in hospital survivors with type 2 diabetes mellitus and acute coronary syndromes

AIM

To define the predictors of long-term mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 7226 patients from a randomized trial, testing the effect on cardiovascular outcomes of the dual peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonist aleglitazar in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome (AleCardio trial), were analysed. Median follow-up was 2 years. The independent mortality predictors were defined using Cox regression analysis. The predictive information provided by each variable was calculated as percent of total chi-square of the model. All-cause mortality was 4.0%, with cardiovascular death contributing for 73% of mortality. The mortality prediction model included N-terminal proB-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.68; 95% confidence interval = 1.51-1.88; 27% of prediction), lack of coronary revascularization (hazard ratio = 2.28; 95% confidence interval = 1.77-2.93; 18% of prediction), age (hazard ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.05; 15% of prediction), heart rate (hazard ratio = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.03; 10% of prediction), glycated haemoglobin (hazard ratio = 1.11; 95% confidence interval = 1.03-1.19; 8% of prediction), haemoglobin (hazard ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.02; 8% of prediction), prior coronary artery bypass (hazard ratio = 1.61; 95% confidence interval = 1.11-2.32; 7% of prediction) and prior myocardial infarction (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.87; 6% of prediction).

CONCLUSION

In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome, mortality prediction is largely dominated by markers of cardiac, rather than metabolic, dysfunction.

Natural conception: repeated predictions over time

STUDY QUESTION

How can we predict chances of natural conception at various time points in couples diagnosed with unexplained subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We developed a dynamic prediction model that can make repeated predictions over time for couples with unexplained subfertility that underwent a fertility workup at a fertility clinic.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The most frequently used prediction model for natural conception (the 'Hunault model') estimates the probability of natural conception only once per couple, that is, after completion of the fertility workup. This model cannot be used for a second or third time for couples who wish to know their renewed chances after a certain period of expectant management.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A prospective cohort studying the long-term follow-up of subfertile couples included in 38 centres in the Netherlands between January 2002 and February 2004. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 10⁶ were excluded.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The primary endpoint was time to natural conception, leading to an ongoing pregnancy. Follow-up time was censored at the start of treatment or at the last date of contact. In developing the new dynamic prediction model, we used the same predictors as the Hunault model, i.e. female age, duration of subfertility, female subfertility being primary or secondary, sperm motility and referral status. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we assessed the utility of the model in terms of the variability of the calculated predictions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Of the 4999 couples in the cohort, 1053 (21%) women reached a natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy within a mean follow-up of 8 months (5th and 95th percentile: 1-21). Our newly developed dynamic prediction model estimated the median probability of conceiving in the first year after the completion of the fertility workup at 27%. For couples not yet pregnant after half a year, after one year and after one and a half years of expectant management, the median probability of conceiving over the next year was estimated at 20, 15 and 13%, respectively. The model performed fair in an internal validation. The prediction ranges were sufficiently broad to aid in counselling couples for at least two years after their fertility workup.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The dynamic prediction model needs to be validated in an external population.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This dynamic prediction model allows reassessment of natural conception chances after various periods of unsuccessful expectant management. This gives valuable information to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility that are seen for a fertility workup.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This study was facilitated by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. No competing interests.

An Application of Sequential Meta-Analysis to Gene Expression Studies

Most of the discoveries from gene expression data are driven by a study claiming an optimal subset of genes that play a key role in a specific disease. Meta-analysis of the available datasets can help in getting concordant results so that a real-life application may be more successful. Sequential meta-analysis (SMA) is an approach for combining studies in chronological order while preserving the type I error and pre-specifying the statistical power to detect a given effect size. We focus on the application of SMA to find gene expression signatures across experiments in acute myeloid leukemia. SMA of seven raw datasets is used to evaluate whether the accumulated samples show enough evidence or more experiments should be initiated. We found 313 differentially expressed genes, based on the cumulative information of the experiments. SMA offers an alternative to existing methods in generating a gene list by evaluating the adequacy of the cumulative information.

The influence of life events on first and recurrent admissions in bipolar disorder

Background

Life events play an important role in the onset and course of bipolar disorder. We will test the influence of life events on first and recurrent admissions in bipolar disorder and their interaction to test the kindling hypothesis.

Methods

We collected information about life events and admissions across the life span in 51 bipolar patients. We constructed four models to explore the decay of life event effects on admissions. To test their interaction, we used the Andersen-Gill model.

Results

The relationship between life events and admissions was best described with a model in which the effects of life events gradually decayed by 25% per year. Both life event load and recurrent admissions significantly increased the risk of both first and subsequent admissions. No significant interaction between life event load and number of admissions was found.

Conclusions

Life events increase the risk of both first and recurrent admissions in bipolar disorder. We found no significant interaction between life events and admissions, but the effect of life events on admissions decreases after the first admission which is in line with the kindling hypothesis.

Behavioral signatures related to genetic disorders in autism

Background

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is well recognized to be genetically heterogeneous. It is assumed that the genetic risk factors give rise to a broad spectrum of indistinguishable behavioral presentations.

Methods

We tested this assumption by analyzing the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) symptom profiles in samples comprising six genetic disorders that carry an increased risk for ASD (22q11.2 deletion, Down’s syndrome, Prader-Willi, supernumerary marker chromosome 15, tuberous sclerosis complex and Klinefelter syndrome; total n = 322 cases, groups ranging in sample sizes from 21 to 90 cases). We mined the data to test the existence and specificity of ADI-R profiles using a multiclass extension of support vector machine (SVM) learning. We subsequently applied the SVM genetic disorder algorithm on idiopathic ASD profiles from the Autism Genetics Resource Exchange (AGRE).

Results

Genetic disorders were associated with behavioral specificity, indicated by the accuracy and certainty of SVM predictions; one-by-one genetic disorder stratifications were highly accurate leading to 63% accuracy of correct genotype prediction when all six genetic disorder groups were analyzed simultaneously. Application of the SVM algorithm to AGRE cases indicated that the algorithm could detect similarity of genetic behavioral signatures in idiopathic ASD subjects. Also, affected sib pairs in the AGRE were behaviorally more similar when they had been allocated to the same genetic disorder group.

Conclusions

Our findings provide evidence for genotype-phenotype correlations in relation to autistic symptomatology. SVM algorithms may be used to stratify idiopathic cases of ASD according to behavioral signature patterns associated with genetic disorders. Together, the results suggest a new approach for disentangling the heterogeneity of ASD.

Common carotid intima-media thickness does not add to Framingham risk score in individuals with diabetes mellitus: the USE-IMT initiative

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this work was to investigate whether measurement of the mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) improves cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with diabetes.

METHODS

We performed a subanalysis among 4,220 individuals with diabetes in a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis involving 56,194 subjects from 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We first refitted the risk factors of the Framingham heart risk score on the individuals without previous cardiovascular disease (baseline model) and then expanded this model with the mean common CIMT (CIMT model). The absolute 10 year risk for developing a myocardial infarction or stroke was estimated from both models. In individuals with diabetes we compared discrimination and calibration of the two models. Reclassification of individuals with diabetes was based on allocation to another cardiovascular risk category when mean common CIMT was added.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, 684 first-time cardiovascular events occurred among the population with diabetes. The C statistic was 0.67 for the Framingham model and 0.68 for the CIMT model. The absolute 10 year risk for developing a myocardial infarction or stroke was 16% in both models. There was no net reclassification improvement with the addition of mean common CIMT (1.7%; 95% CI -1.8, 3.8). There were no differences in the results between men and women.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

There is no improvement in risk prediction in individuals with diabetes when measurement of the mean common CIMT is added to the Framingham risk score. Therefore, this measurement is not recommended for improving individual cardiovascular risk stratification in individuals with diabetes.

Prediction of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE

Treatment in advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is based on primary cytoreductive surgery followed by platinum-based chemotherapy. Successful cytoreduction to minimal residual tumour burden is the most important determinant of prognosis. However, extensive surgical procedures to achieve maximal debulking are inevitably associated with postoperative morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study is to determine predictors of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC.

METHODS

All patients in the South Western part of the Netherlands who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC between January 2004 and December 2007 were identified from the Rotterdam Cancer Registry database. All peri- and postoperative complications within 30 days after surgery were registered and classified according to the definitions of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP). To investigate independent predictors of 30-day morbidity, a Cox proportional hazards model with backward stepwise elimination was utilised. The identified predictors were entered into a nomogram.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-three patients entered the study protocol. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 136 (46%) patients. 30-day morbidity was seen in 99 (34%) patients. Postoperative morbidity could be predicted by age (P=0.007; odds ratio [OR] 1.034), WHO performance status (P=0.046; OR 1.757), extent of surgery (P=0.1308; OR=2.101), and operative time (P=0.017; OR 1.007) with an optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.68.

CONCLUSION

30-day morbidity could be predicted by age, WHO performance status, operative time and extent of surgery. The generated nomogram could be valuable for predicting operative risk in the individual patient.

Preoperative predictors for residual tumor after surgery in patients with ovarian carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Suboptimal debulking (>1 cm residual tumor) results in poor survival rates for patients with an advanced stage of ovarian cancer. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model, based on simple preoperative parameters, for patients with an advanced stage of ovarian cancer who are at risk of suboptimal cytoreduction despite maximal surgical effort.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 187 consecutive patients with a suspected clinical diagnosis of advanced-stage ovarian cancer undergoing upfront debulking between January 1998 and December 2003. Preoperative parameters were Karnofsky performance status, ascites and serum concentrations of CA 125, hemoglobin, albumin, LDH and blood platelets. The main outcome parameter was residual tumor >1 cm. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was employed for testing possible prediction models. A clinically applicable graphic model (nomogram) for this prediction was to be developed.

RESULTS

Serum concentrations of CA 125 and blood platelets in the group with residual tumor >1 cm were higher in comparison to the optimally cytoreduced group (p < 0.0001 and <0.01, respectively). Serum albumin and hemoglobin levels were lower in the group with residual tumor (p < 0.0001 and <0.05, respectively). The frequency of preoperative ascites was higher in the group with residual tumor (p < 0.0005). The prediction model, consisting of CA 125 and albumin, for remaining with residual tumor showed an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.79. A nomogram for probability of residual tumor >1 cm based on serum levels of CA 125 and albumin was established.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative residual tumor despite maximal surgical effort can be predicted by preoperative CA 125 and serum albumin levels. With a nomogram based on these two parameters, probability of postoperative residual tumor in each individual patient can be predicted. This proposed nomogram may be valuable in daily routine practice for counseling and to select treatment modality.

A mild treatment strategy for in-vitro fertilisation: a randomised non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Mild in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment might lessen both patients' discomfort and multiple births, with their associated risks. We aimed to test the hypothesis that mild IVF treatment can achieve the same chance of a pregnancy resulting in term livebirth within 1 year compared with standard treatment, and can also reduce patients' discomfort, multiple pregnancies, and costs.

METHODS

We did a randomised, non-inferiority effectiveness trial. 404 patients were randomly assigned to undergo either mild treatment (mild ovarian stimulation with gonadotropin-releasing hormone [GnRH] antagonist co-treatment combined with single embryo transfer) or a standard treatment (stimulation with a GnRH agonist long-protocol and transfer of two embryos). Primary endpoints were proportion of cumulative pregnancies leading to term livebirth within 1 year after randomisation (with a non-inferiority threshold of -12.5%), total costs per couple up to 6 weeks after expected date of delivery, and overall discomfort for patients. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Clinical Trial, number ISRCTN35766970.

FINDINGS

The proportions of cumulative pregnancies that resulted in term livebirth after 1 year were 43.4% with mild treatment and 44.7% with standard treatment (absolute number of patients=86 for both groups). The lower limit of the one-sided 95% CI was -9.8%. The proportion of couples with multiple pregnancy outcomes was 0.5% with mild IVF treatment versus 13.1% (p<0.0001) with standard treatment, and mean total costs were 8333 euros and 10745 euros, respectively (difference 2412 euros, 95% CI 703-4131). There were no significant differences between the groups in the anxiety, depression, physical discomfort, or sleep quality of the mother.

INTERPRETATION

Over 1 year of treatment, cumulative rates of term livebirths and patients' discomfort are much the same for mild ovarian stimulation with single embryos transferred and for standard stimulation with two embryos transferred. However, a mild IVF treatment protocol can substantially reduce multiple pregnancy rates and overall costs.

PCOS according to the Rotterdam consensus criteria: change in prevalence among WHO-II anovulation and association with metabolic factors

OBJECTIVE

The current report aims to compare the prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) diagnosed according to the new Rotterdam criteria (Rott-PCOS) versus the previous criteria as formulated by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (NIH-PCOS) in women with normogonadotropic (WHO-II) anovulation and assess the frequency of obesity and related factors determined in these women.

DESIGN

Cohort study based on large anovulation screening database.

SETTING

Two large tertiary referral centres for reproductive medicine.

POPULATION

WHO-II normogonadotropic, anovulatory, infertility cases.

METHODS

WHO-II cases were extracted from the screening database and classified according to both the Rotterdam and NIH criteria for PCOS. Within these two classes, the prevalence of obesity, hyperglycaemia and insulin resistance was assessed and compared and their relation to the difference in diagnostic criteria applied was analysed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of diagnosis PCOS in the WHO-II anovulation group. Prevalence of obesity, hyperglycaemia and insulin resistance in the two diagnostic classes.

RESULTS

The Rott-PCOS group appeared to be more than 1.5 times larger than the group classified as NIH-PCOS (91 versus 55% of the WHO-II cohort). Especially, women with ovarian dysfunction and polycystic ovaries at ultrasound scan, but without hyperandrogenism, were added to the PCOS diagnostic group. The Rott-PCOS exhibited a lower frequency of obesity, hyperglycaemia and insulin resistance compared with the NIH-PCOS group. Obese women in the Rott-PCOS group without androgen excess had a different metabolic profile compared with obese women in the NIH-PCOS group, with lower rates of hyperglycaemia and hyperinsulinism, despite comparable distributions of body weight.

CONCLUSION

The present findings indicate that with the new Rotterdam consensus criteria, oligo/anovulatory women with less severe metabolic derangement will be added to the heterogeneous group of women with PCOS.

Age-related differences in features associated with polycystic ovary syndrome in normogonadotrophic oligo-amenorrhoeic infertile women of reproductive years

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of age on clinical, endocrine and sonographic features associated with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in normogonadotrophic anovulatory infertile women of reproductive years.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Four hundred and seventy-two oligo-amenorrhoeic infertile patients, presenting with normal FSH and oestradiol concentrations, aged 17-42 years underwent a standardised initial evaluation including: cycle history, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio and transvaginal ultrasound scanning of ovaries. Fasting blood samples were obtained for extensive endocrine evaluation. Cycle duration, serum levels of gonadotrophins, androgens, oestradiol, insulin, glucose, inhibin B as well as mean number of follicles, ovarian volume and ovarian stroma echogenicity were assessed.

RESULTS

Older women had significantly lower LH and androgen and inhibin B serum levels. Similarly, older women presented with a reduced number of ovarian follicles. Age was inversely correlated with cycle duration (r=-0.112, P=0.02), LH (r=-0.154, P=0.001), testosterone (r=-0.194, P=0.001), androstenedione (r=-0.170, P=0.001), dehydroepiandrosterone (r=-0.157, P=0.001), insulin (r=-0.126, P=0.02), inhibin B (r=-0.118, P=0.03) serum levels and mean follicle number (r=-0.100, P=0.03). A positive correlation was observed between age and glucose to insulin ratio (r=0.138, P=0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced age in normogonadotrophic anovulatory infertile women is associated with lower LH and androgen levels and with a decreased number of ovarian follicles. Although during reproductive years observed differences are relatively small, these age-related changes may affect the observed incidence of PCOS.

Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis

The performance of a predictive model is overestimated when simply determined on the sample of subjects that was used to construct the model. Several internal validation methods are available that aim to provide a more accurate estimate of model performance in new subjects. We evaluated several variants of split-sample, cross-validation and bootstrapping methods with a logistic regression model that included eight predictors for 30-day mortality after an acute myocardial infarction. Random samples with a size between n = 572 and n = 9165 were drawn from a large data set (GUSTO-I; n = 40,830; 2851 deaths) to reflect modeling in data sets with between 5 and 80 events per variable. Independent performance was determined on the remaining subjects. Performance measures included discriminative ability, calibration and overall accuracy. We found that split-sample analyses gave overly pessimistic estimates of performance, with large variability. Cross-validation on 10% of the sample had low bias and low variability, but was not suitable for all performance measures. Internal validity could best be estimated with bootstrapping, which provided stable estimates with low bias. We conclude that split-sample validation is inefficient, and recommend bootstrapping for estimation of internal validity of a predictive logistic regression model.

Absent biologically relevant associations between serum inhibin B concentrations and characteristics of polycystic ovary syndrome in normogonadotrophic anovulatory infertility

BACKGROUND

Dominant follicle selection is disturbed in normogonadotrophic anovulatory infertility [World Health Organization (WHO) 2] and remaining early antral follicles are either healthy or atretic. This study was conducted to investigate whether inhibin B serum concentrations (produced by healthy small antral follicles) represent the extent of ovarian abnormalities in WHO 2 women and patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), constituting a subgroup of WHO 2 patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Ultrasonographic and endocrine characteristics in 379 WHO 2 patients and 30 normo-ovulatory controls were compared. In the WHO 2 patients, the PCOS subgroup and the controls, inhibin B concentrations were similar. Inhibin B concentrations were weakly but significantly correlated with the total number of ovarian follicles (r = 0.282; P < 0.001), LH (r = 0.347; P < 0.001), and testosterone (r = 0.269; P < 0.001) but not with serum oestradiol concentrations (r = 0.057). Most (71%) patients with elevated inhibin B also presented with increased concentrations of LH and/or hyperandrogenaemia. In a subgroup of 190 subjects, classified as PCOS based on hyperandrogenaemia and polycystic ovaries, elevated inhibin B concentrations were found in 23% of cases. Aforementioned correlations were similar in PCOS as in WHO 2 patients.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, inhibin B serum concentrations are normal in WHO 2 and PCOS women, suggesting a normal number of healthy early antral follicles despite increased overall follicle numbers in PCOS.

Low-dose exogenous FSH initiated during the early, mid or late follicular phase can induce multiple dominant follicle development

This prospective, randomized trial in normo-ovulatory women was designed to test whether administration of low-dose exogenous FSH initiated during the early, mid to late follicular phase can induce multiple dominant follicle development. Forty normal weight women (age 19-35 years, cycle length 25-32 days) participated. A fixed dose (75 IU/day) of recombinant FSH was started on either cycle day 3 (n = 13), 5 (n = 13) or 7 (n = 14) until the induction of ovulation with human chorionic gonadotrophin. Frequent transvaginal ultrasound scans and blood sampling were performed. Multifollicular growth occurred in all groups (overall in 60%), although day 7 starters showed less multifollicular growth. Age, cycle length and initial FSH and inhibin B concentrations were similar between subjects with single or multiple follicle development. However, for all women the lower the body mass index (BMI), the more follicles emerged (r = -0.44, P = 0.007). If multifollicular growth occurred, the length of the luteal phase was reduced (P = 0.002) and midluteal serum concentrations of LH (P = 0.03) and FSH (P = 0.004) were decreased and oestradiol (P = 0.002) and inhibin A (P = 0.01) were increased. In conclusion, interference with decremental serum FSH concentrations by administration of low dose FSH starting on cycle day 3, 5 or as late as day 7, is capable of disrupting single dominant follicle selection. The role of BMI in determining ovarian response suggests that differences in pharmacokinetics of exogenous FSH are involved. Multifollicular growth per se has a distinct effect on luteal phase characteristics. These observations may be relevant for the design of mild ovarian stimulation protocols.

Estimated event-free life expectancy after autograft aortic root replacement in adults

BACKGROUND

Autograft aortic root replacement is an established therapeutic option for young adults with aortic valve disease. Unfortunately, most series are small with a limited follow-up. Meta-analysis and microsimulation modeling were used to predict long-term outcome based on currently available midterm data.

METHODS

We combined our center's experience with autograft aortic root replacement in 85 adult patients in a meta-analysis with reported results of three other hospitals. The outcomes of this meta-analysis were entered in a microsimulation model, calculating (event-free) life expectancy after autograft aortic root replacement.

RESULTS

The pooled results comprised 380 patients with a total follow-up of 1,077 patient-years. Mean age was 37 years (range 16 to 68 years). Male/female ratio was 2.7. Operative mortality was 2.6% (n = 10); during follow-up 6 more patients died. Linearized annual risk estimates were 0.5% for thromboembolism, 0.3% for endocarditis, and 0.4% for nonstructural valve failure. Structural autograft failure requiring reoperation occurred in 5 patients, and a Weibull function was constructed accordingly. Using this information, the microsimulation model predicted age- and gender-specific mean, reoperation-free, and event-free life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current evidence the calculated average autograft-related reoperation-free life expectancy is 16 years. The combination of meta-analysis and microsimulation provides a promising and powerful tool for estimating long-term outcome after aortic valve replacement.

Dynamics of the development of multiple follicles during ovarian stimulation for in vitro fertilization using recombinant follicle-stimulating hormone (Puregon) and various doses of the gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist ganirelix (Orgalutran/Antagon)

OBJECTIVE

To investigate relations between dose of GnRH antagonist and follicular phase characteristics.

DESIGN

Randomized controlled multicenter trial.

SETTING

Tertiary referral fertility centers.

PATIENT(S)

Three hundred and twenty-nine IVF patients.

INTERVENTION(S)

Ovarian stimulation for IVF with recombinant FSH starting on cycle day 2. From cycle day 7 onwards, cotreatment was provided with 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, or 2.0 mg/d GnRH antagonist.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Number of follicles, total follicular surface area, gonadotropin, and serum steroid concentrations.

RESULT(S)

In 311 patients, similar follicular growth was observed in all treatment groups. FSH levels increased during the follicular phase. Late follicular phase LH, androstenedione (AD), and E(2) levels showed a GnRH antagonist dose-related decrease (P<0.05). Late follicular phase E(2) levels correlated with total follicular surface area, AD, LH, and FSH (all P<0.001). Increasing GnRH antagonist doses exhibited additional suppressive action on E(2) levels.

CONCLUSION(S)

Follicular growth was unaffected by the dose of GnRH antagonist. A rise in follicular phase FSH serum concentrations during the follicular phase, largely related to exogenous FSH, enabled ongoing follicular growth in all treatment groups. The effect of GnRH antagonist on late follicular phase E(2) levels could not be exclusively attributed to suppression of LH.

Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with a bioprosthesis: predictions based on meta-analysis and microsimulation

BACKGROUND

Bioprostheses are widely used as an aortic valve substitute, but knowledge about prognosis is still incomplete. The purpose of this study was to provide insight into the age-related life expectancy and actual risks of reoperation and valve-related events of patients after aortic valve replacement with a porcine bioprosthesis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a meta-analysis of 9 selected reports on stented porcine bioprostheses, including 5837 patients with a total follow-up of 31 874 patient-years. The annual rates of valve thrombosis, thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and nonstructural dysfunction were 0.03%, 0.87%, 0.38%, and 0.38%, respectively. The annual rate of endocarditis was estimated at 0.68% for >6 months of implantation and was 5 times as high during the first 6 months. Structural valve deterioration was described with a Weibull model that incorporated lower risks for older patients. These estimates were used to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a mathematical microsimulation model. The model was used to predict life expectancy and actual risks of reoperation and valve-related events after implantation for patients of different ages. For a 65-year-old male, these figures were 11.3 years, 28%, and 47%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of meta-analysis with microsimulation enabled a detailed insight into the prognosis after aortic valve replacement with a bioprosthesis for patients of different ages. This information will be useful for patient counseling and clinical decision making. It also could serve as a baseline for the evaluation of newer valve types.

Somatostatin receptor scintigraphy useful in stage I-II Hodgkin's disease: more extended disease identified

Somatostatin receptor (SS-R) scintigraphy successfully shows primary cancers and metastases in patients with a variety of SS-R-positive tumours. In vitro studies have shown that SS-Rs are present in lymph nodes from patients with Hodgkin's disease (HD). We performed a prospective study in 126 newly diagnosed patients with HD and compared the results of SS-R scintigraphy with conventional staging procedures, i.e. physical examination, computerized tomography (CT) scanning and other imaging techniques. We report positive scintigraphy in all patients. The lesion-related sensitivity was 94% and varied from 98% for supradiaphragmatic lesions to 67% for infradiaphragmatic lesions. In comparison with CT scanning and ultrasonography, SS-R scintigraphy provided superior results for the detection of Hodgkin's localizations above the diaphragm. In the intra-abdominal region, the CT scan was more sensitive than the SS-R scan. A false-positive scan was rarely seen. In stages I and II supradiaphragmatic HD patients, SS-R scintigraphy detected more advanced disease in 18% (15 out of 83) of patients, resulting in an upstaging to stage III or IV, thus directly influencing patient management. Our data would support the validity of SS-R scanning as a powerful imaging technique for the staging of patients with HD.

Somatostatin receptor scintigraphy in the initial staging of low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphomas

In this prospective study, somatostatin receptor (SS-R) scintigraphy was compared with conventional staging procedures for the initial staging of patients with low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL).

METHODS

Fifty consecutive untreated patients with low-grade NHL underwent SS-R scintigraphy as part of their initial staging. Planar images were obtained 24 and 48 h after intravenous injection of 220 MBq (111)In-pentetreotide. SPECT images of the upper abdomen were obtained from all patients. SS-R scans were evaluated blindly without knowledge of the results of the conventional staging methods. SS-R scintigraphy findings were compared with the results of physical and radiologic examinations.

RESULTS

SS-R scintigraphy findings were positive in 42 of 50 patients (84%). In 10 patients (20%), the SS-R scan revealed new lesions that had not been revealed by conventional staging procedures. These 10 patients were all upgraded to a higher stage. Consequently, the treatment plan would have been altered in 5 patients (10%). However, in 19 patients (38%), lesions apparent after conventional staging methods were missed by SS-R scintigraphy. The sensitivity of SS-R scintigraphy varied from 62% for supradiaphragmatic lesions to 44% for infradiaphragmatic lesions. The specificity of SS-R scintigraphy was high (98%-100%). In comparison with CT scanning and sonography, SS-R scintigraphy is inferior for the visualization of NHL lesions in the thorax and abdomen.

CONCLUSION

Although SS-R scintigraphy findings are positive in a large proportion of patients with low-grade NHL, in most patients only part of the lesions can be visualized. Because of the limited sensitivity, we recommend SS-R scintigraphy for initial staging of patients with low-grade NHL only in selected conditions and not for the general work-up.

Prognostic modeling with logistic regression analysis: in search of a sensible strategy in small data sets

Clinical decision making often requires estimates of the likelihood of a dichotomous outcome in individual patients. When empirical data are available, these estimates may well be obtained from a logistic regression model. Several strategies may be followed in the development of such a model. In this study, the authors compare alternative strategies in 23 small subsamples from a large data set of patients with an acute myocardial infarction, where they developed predictive models for 30-day mortality. Evaluations were performed in an independent part of the data set. Specifically, the authors studied the effect of coding of covariables and stepwise selection on discriminative ability of the resulting model, and the effect of statistical "shrinkage" techniques on calibration. As expected, dichotomization of continuous covariables implied a loss of information. Remarkably, stepwise selection resulted in less discriminating models compared to full models including all available covariables, even when more than half of these were randomly associated with the outcome. Using qualitative information on the sign of the effect of predictors slightly improved the predictive ability. Calibration improved when shrinkage was applied on the standard maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients. In conclusion, a sensible strategy in small data sets is to apply shrinkage methods in full models that include well-coded predictors that are selected based on external information.

Normal anal sphincter anatomy and age- and sex-related variations at high-spatial-resolution endoanal MR imaging

PURPOSE

To describe the various patterns of normal sphincter anatomy as seen at endoanal magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and to assess sex- and age-related variations in the dimensions of the anal sphincter to refine the diagnosis of sphincter disorders.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Endoanal MR imaging (1.5 T) was performed in 100 healthy volunteers (50 women, 50 men) evenly distributed between ages 20 and 85 years. The essential anatomic structures were evaluated, and various patterns in men and women were recorded. The thickness of the anal sphincter muscles and the length of the anal canal were measured, and age- and sex-related correlations were studied.

RESULTS

Sex-related differences included a significantly shorter external sphincter in women than in men both laterally (mean, 27.1 mm +/- 5.4 vs 28.6 mm +/- 4.3; P: <.05) and anteriorly (mean, 14.0 mm +/- 3.0 vs 27.0 mm +/- 53.0; P: <.051). The superficial transverse perineal muscle is located more superiorly in women than in men. The central perineal tendon in men is a central muscular insertion point; in women, it represents an area where muscle fibers imbricate. Age-related variations included a significant decrease in the thickness of the external sphincter in men (P: <.01). Significant decrease in the thickness of the longitudinal muscle and increase in the thickness of the internal sphincter were noted in both sexes (P: <.01).

CONCLUSION

High-spatial-resolution endoanal MR imaging provides excellent visualization of pelvic floor structures. Severe atrophy as it occurs in incontinent patients should be differentiated from physiologic, age-related thinning of the external sphincter and longitudinal muscle.

Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets

Logistic regression analysis may well be used to develop a prognostic model for a dichotomous outcome. Especially when limited data are available, it is difficult to determine an appropriate selection of covariables for inclusion in such models. Also, predictions may be improved by applying some sort of shrinkage in the estimation of regression coefficients. In this study we compare the performance of several selection and shrinkage methods in small data sets of patients with acute myocardial infarction, where we aim to predict 30-day mortality. Selection methods included backward stepwise selection with significance levels alpha of 0.01, 0.05, 0. 157 (the AIC criterion) or 0.50, and the use of qualitative external information on the sign of regression coefficients in the model. Estimation methods included standard maximum likelihood, the use of a linear shrinkage factor, penalized maximum likelihood, the Lasso, or quantitative external information on univariable regression coefficients. We found that stepwise selection with a low alpha (for example, 0.05) led to a relatively poor model performance, when evaluated on independent data. Substantially better performance was obtained with full models with a limited number of important predictors, where regression coefficients were reduced with any of the shrinkage methods. Incorporation of external information for selection and estimation improved the stability and quality of the prognostic models. We therefore recommend shrinkage methods in full models including prespecified predictors and incorporation of external information, when prognostic models are constructed in small data sets.

Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets

Logistic regression analysis may well be used to develop a prognostic model for a dichotomous outcome. Especially when limited data are available, it is difficult to determine an appropriate selection of covariables for inclusion in such models. Also, predictions may be improved by applying some sort of shrinkage in the estimation of regression coefficients. In this study we compare the performance of several selection and shrinkage methods in small data sets of patients with acute myocardial infarction, where we aim to predict 30-day mortality. Selection methods included backward stepwise selection with significance levels alpha of 0.01, 0.05, 0. 157 (the AIC criterion) or 0.50, and the use of qualitative external information on the sign of regression coefficients in the model. Estimation methods included standard maximum likelihood, the use of a linear shrinkage factor, penalized maximum likelihood, the Lasso, or quantitative external information on univariable regression coefficients. We found that stepwise selection with a low alpha (for example, 0.05) led to a relatively poor model performance, when evaluated on independent data. Substantially better performance was obtained with full models with a limited number of important predictors, where regression coefficients were reduced with any of the shrinkage methods. Incorporation of external information for selection and estimation improved the stability and quality of the prognostic models. We therefore recommend shrinkage methods in full models including prespecified predictors and incorporation of external information, when prognostic models are constructed in small data sets.

Free androgen index and leptin are the most prominent endocrine predictors of ovarian response during clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility

We have previously demonstrated that obese hyperandrogenic amenorrheic women are less likely to ovulate after clomiphene citrate (CC) medication. The present study was designed to identify whether additional endocrine screening characteristics, all potentially involved in ovarian dysfunction in 182 normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertile women, are associated with ovarian response, which may improve overall prediction of CC-resistant anovulation. Standardized endocrine screening took place before initiation of CC medication (50 mg/day; increasing doses up to 150 mg/day if required) from cycle days 3-7. Screening included serum assays for fasting insulin and glucose, insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), IGF-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), IGFBP-3, free IGF-I, inhibin B, leptin, and vascular endothelial growth factor. Forty-two women (22% of the total group) did not ovulate at the end of follow-up (a total number of 325 cycles were analyzed). Fasting serum insulin, insulin/glucose ratio, IGFBP-1, and leptin were all significantly different in univariate analyses (P < or = 0.02), comparing CC responders vs. nonresponders. Forward stepwise multivariate analyses in combination with factors reported earlier for prediction of patients remaining anovulatory after CC revealed a prediction model including 1) free androgen index (FAI = testosterone/sex hormone-binding globulin ratio), 2) cycle history (oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea), 3) leptin level, and 4) mean ovarian volume. These data suggest that decreased insulin sensitivity, hyperandrogenemia, and obesity, all associated with polycystic ovary syndrome, are prominent factors involved in ovarian dysfunction, preventing these ovaries from responding to stimulation by raised endogenous FSH levels due to CC medication. By using leptin instead of body mass index or waist to hip ratio, the previous model for prediction of patients remaining anovulatory after CC medication could be slightly improved (area under the curve from 0.82-0.85). This may indicate that leptin is more directly involved in ovarian dysfunction in these patients. The capability of insulin and IGFBP-1 to predict patients who remain anovulatory after CC disappears when FAI enters into the model due to a significant correlation between FAI and these endocrine parameters. This suggests that markers for insulin sensitivity (e.g. IGFBP-1 and insulin) are associated with abnormal ovarian function through its correlation with androgens, whereas leptin is directly involved in ovarian dysfunction.

Prognostic models based on literature and individual patient data in logistic regression analysis

Prognostic models can be developed with multiple regression analysis of a data set containing individual patient data. Often this data set is relatively small, while previously published studies present results for larger numbers of patients. We describe a method to combine univariable regression results from the medical literature with univariable and multivariable results from the data set containing individual patient data. This 'adaptation method' exploits the generally strong correlation between univariable and multivariable regression coefficients. The method is illustrated with several logistic regression models to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction. The regression coefficients showed considerably less variability when estimated with the adaptation method, compared to standard maximum likelihood estimates. Also, model performance, as distinguished in calibration and discrimination, improved clearly when compared to models including shrunk or penalized estimates. We conclude that prognostic models may benefit substantially from explicit incorporation of literature data.

Follicular and luteal phase characteristics following early cessation of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist during ovarian stimulation for in-vitro fertilization

Gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRHa) are widely used in in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for the prevention of a premature rise in luteinizing hormone (LH) concentrations. However, the administration of GnRHa during the follicular phase may also impair subsequent luteal function due to retarded recovery of pituitary gonadotrophin secretion. Therefore, luteal supplementation is generally applied. The present study was designed to determine whether a premature LH surge would still be prevented after early cessation of GnRHa during ovarian stimulation and whether subsequent luteal phase LH production would be sufficient to support progesterone synthesis by the corpus luteum. Sixty patients were randomized for three groups: (i) A long GnRHa/human menopausal gonadotrophin (HMG) protocol with luteal support by repeated human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) (n = 20), (ii) early follicular phase cessation of GnRHa without luteal support (n = 20), and (iii) a long GnRHa protocol without luteal support (n = 20). Frequent ultrasound and blood sampling was performed during the entire IVF cycle. Forty normo-ovulatory women served as controls. No premature LH surges were found after early cessation of GnRHa. In this group, some pituitary recovery occurred during the late luteal phase, but this did not affect corpus luteum function. Progesterone concentrations were shown to be dependent on disappearance of the pre-ovulatory bolus of HCG. Pregnancies occurred in all three groups. In conclusion, early follicular phase cessation of GnRHa is still effective in the prevention of a premature rise in LH. Although some pituitary recovery was observed thereafter, corpus luteum function is still abnormal due to early luteolysis.

Implantation rates after in vitro fertilization and transfer of a maximum of two embryos that have undergone three to five days of culture

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate implantation and pregnancy rates in patients undergoing IVF after the transfer of a maximum of two embryos that had been cultured for 3-5 days.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

An IVF laboratory at a tertiary referral university hospital.

PATIENT(S)

One thousand seven hundred eighty-seven couples who underwent their first IVF cycle between January 1995 and December 1997.

INTERVENTION(S)

In vitro fertilization and transfer of embryos after 3, 4, or 5 days of culture using a single medium without coculture.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Implantation and pregnancy rates.

RESULT(S)

Overall implantation and pregnancy rates were not significantly different with different culture periods. Forty-one percent of all available embryos developed into blastocysts on day 5. The transfer of at least one good-quality blastocyst could be performed in 62% of patients. Blastocysts had an implantation rate of 26% per embryo, whereas the implantation rate of eight-cell embryos on day 3 was 18%. Implantation rates for retarded, normal, and advanced embryos were not significantly different with an extended culture period.

CONCLUSION(S)

Under the study conditions, the transfer of embryos after 5 days rather than 3 days of embryo culture did not change the overall implantation and pregnancy rates. The implantation potential of embryos available for transfer can be assessed better after an extended culture period. Five days of culture allows the transfer of a reduced number of embryos without decreasing overall pregnancy rates.

Stepwise selection in small data sets: a simulation study of bias in logistic regression analysis

Stepwise selection methods are widely applied to identify covariables for inclusion in regression models. One of the problems of stepwise selection is biased estimation of the regression coefficients. We illustrate this "selection bias" with logistic regression in the GUSTO-I trial (40,830 patients with an acute myocardial infarction). Random samples were drawn that included 3, 5, 10, 20, or 40 events per variable (EPV). Backward stepwise selection was applied in models containing 8 or 16 pre-specified predictors of 30-day mortality. We found a considerable overestimation of regression coefficients of selected covariables. The selection bias decreased with increasing EPV. For EPV 3, 10, or 40, the bias exceeded 25% for 7, 3, and 1 in the 8-predictor model respectively, when a conventional selection criterion was used (alpha = 0.05). For these EPV values, the bias was less than 20% for all covariables when no selection was applied. We conclude that stepwise selection may result in a substantial bias of estimated regression coefficients.

Fecal incontinence: endoanal US versus endoanal MR imaging

PURPOSE

To assess endoanal ultrasonography (US) and endoanal magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for mapping of anal sphincter defects that have been validated at surgery in patients with fecal incontinence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

US, MR imaging, and surgical findings in 22 women with fecal incontinence who underwent sphincter repair were retrospectively reviewed. US and MR imaging had been performed before surgery. The findings were evaluated separately and validated with surgical results.

RESULTS

Endoanal MR imaging findings showed better agreement with surgical results than did endoanal US findings for diagnosis of lesions of the external sphincter (kappa value, 0.85 vs 0.53) and of the internal sphincter (kappa value, 0.64 vs 0.49). Endoanal US could not accurately demonstrate thinning of the external sphincter. MR imaging results correlated moderately with US results (kappa = 0.39). If endoanal MR images alone had been considered, the correct surgical decision would have been made in 21 (95%) patients; if endoanal US images alone had been considered, the correct decision would have been made in 17 (77%) patients.

CONCLUSION

MR imaging is more accurate than US for demonstration of sphincter lesions. MR imaging provides higher spatial resolution and better inherent image contrast for lesion characterization. Endoanal MR imaging allows more precise description of the extent and structure of complex lesions and is superior for help in decisions about optimal therapy.

Predictors of chances to conceive in ovulatory patients during clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility

The present prospective follow-up study was designed to identify whether clinical, endocrine, or ultrasound characteristics assessed by standardized initial screening of normogonadotropic oligo/amenorrheic infertile patients could predict conception in 160 women who reached ovulation after clomiphene citrate (CC) medication. Additional inclusion criteria were total motile sperm count of the partner above 1 million and a negative history for any tubal disease. Daily CC doses of 50 mg (increasing up to 150 mg in case of absent ovarian response) from cycle days 3-7 were used. First conception (defined as a positive urinary pregnancy test) was the end point for this study. A cumulative conception rate of 73% was reached within 9 CC-induced ovulatory cycles. Patients who did conceive presented more frequently with lower age (P < 0.0001) and amenorrhea (P < 0.05) upon initial screening. In a univariate analysis, patients with elevated initial serum LH concentrations (>7.0 IU/L) had a higher probability of conceiving (P < 0.01). In a multivariate analysis, age and cycle history (oligomenorrhea vs. amenorrhea) were identified as the only significant parameters for prediction of conception. These observations suggest that there is more to be gained from CC ovulation induction in younger women presenting with profound oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea. Screening characteristics involved in the prediction of ovulation after CC medication in normogonadotropic oligo/amenorrheic patients (body weight and hyperandrogenemia, as shown previously) are distinctly different from predictors of conception in ovulatory CC patients (age and the severity of cycle abnormality). This disparity suggests that the FSH threshold (magnitude of FSH required for stimulation of ongoing follicle growth and ovulation) and oocyte quality (chances for conception in ovulatory cycles) may be differentially regulated.

Endoanal MRI of perianal fistulas: the optimal imaging planes

Twenty consecutive patients with the clinical suspicion of a perianal fistula were studied to define the optimal and time-efficient imaging planes for endoanal MRI in the identification and classification of perianal fistulas. The duration of each part of the MR procedure was recorded in all patients. Off-axis axial (A), coronal (C), sagittal (S) and radial (R) T2-weighted sequences were performed in all patients. Sets of images and combinations of images (A; R; CS; AR; ACS; ARCS) without patient data were reviewed in masked fashion and independently with a 2-month interval between each set. The reader was masked to the results of previous readings. The findings were compared with the surgical findings. The number of correctly identified and classified fistula and the sensitivity and specificity were determined. Twenty fistulas were present at surgery: 14 transsphincteric fistulas and six intersphincteric fistulas. Eighteen fistulas were correctly identified with the radial (R) and combined coronal sagittal (CS) sequences. In all other sequences or combinations of sequences all 20 fistulas were identified. Classification was correct with A in 16 patients, with R in 15, with CS in 15, with AR in 18, with ACS in 17 and with ARCS in 18. The sensitivity and specificity were optimal using AR or ARCS (0. 86 and 1 respectively). The optimal and most time-efficient imaging protocol for endoanal MRI of perianal fistulas thus comprises the axial and radial imaging planes.

Predictors of patients remaining anovulatory during clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility

The diagnostic criteria used to identify patients suffering from polycystic ovary syndrome remain controversial. The present prospective longitudinal follow-up study was designed to identify whether certain criteria assessed during standardized initial screening could predict the response to ovulation induction with clomiphene citrate (CC) in 201 patients presenting with oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea and infertility. Serum FSH levels were within the normal range (1-10 IU/L), and all patients underwent spontaneous or progestin-induced withdrawal bleeding. Initial CC doses were 50 mg daily for 5 days starting on cycle day 3. In the case of an absent response, doses were increased to 100 and 150 mg daily in subsequent cycles. First ovulation with CC was used as the end point. After a complete follow-up (in the case of a nonresponse, at least 3 treatment cycles with daily CC doses up to 150 mg), 156 patients (78%) ovulated. The free androgen index (FAI = testosterone/sex hormone-binding globulin ratio), body mass index (BMI), cycle history (oligomenorrhea vs. amenorrhea), serum androgen (testosterone and/or androstenedione) levels, and mean ovarian volume assessed by transvaginal sonography were all significantly different (P < 0.01) in responders from those in nonresponders. FAI was chosen to be the best predictor in univariate analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve in a multivariate prediction model including FAI, BMI, cycle history, and mean ovarian volume was 0.82. Patients whose ovaries are less likely to respond to stimulation by FSH due to CC treatment can be predicted on the basis of initial screening characteristics, such as FAI, BMI, cycle history (oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea), and mean ovarian volume. These observations may add to ongoing discussion regarding etiological factors involved in ovarian dysfunction in these patients and classification of normogonadotropic anovulatory infertile women.

The use of confidence intervals for individual utilities: limits to formal decision analysis for treatment choice

This paper discusses the use of confidence intervals for utility measurements. Classic test theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals for utilities. The theory is enhanced to calculate confidence areas for combined utilities and confidence bands for the threshold line. As an example it is shown that, if confidence intervals are taken into account, the implied preferred treatment of T3-larynx carcinoma patients is uncertain for a wide range of utilities, considering the mediocre reliability of most methods of utility assessment. This implies that although utility measurement and formal decision analysis can be a useful way to look at the decision problem, ambiguity, which must be resolved by other means, will often remain.

The 'utility' of the visual analog scale in medical decision making and technology assessment. Is it an alternative to the time trade-off?

Methods often used for the valuation of health states are the time trade-off (TTO) and the visual analog scale (VAS). The VAS is easier than the TTO and can be self-administered; however it usually leads to lower scores. In the literature a power transformation of group mean VAS scores to TTO scores has been proposed. We were able to replicate this finding of a power function. We found coefficients that were very similar to those from the literature, for 183 cancer patients. The relationship existed independently of disease state and health status.

Perioperative mortality of elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery. A clinical prediction rule based on literature and individual patient data

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery is a major vascular procedure with a considerable risk of (mainly cardiac) mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate elective perioperative mortality, we developed a clinical prediction rule based on several well-established risk factors: age, gender, a history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, ischemia on the electrocardiogram, pulmonary impairment, and renal impairment.

METHODS

Two sources of data were used: (1) individual patient data from 246 patients operated on at the University Hospital Leiden (the Netherlands) and (2) studies published in the literature between 1980 and 1994. The Leiden data were analyzed with univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Literature data were pooled with meta-analysis techniques. The clinical prediction rule was based on the pooled odds ratios from the literature, which were adapted by the regression results of the Leiden data.

RESULTS

The strongest adverse risk factors in the literature were congestive heart failure and cardiac ischemia on the electrocardiogram, followed by renal impairment, history of myocardial infarction, pulmonary impairment, and female gender. The literature data further showed that a 10-year increase in age more than doubled surgical risk. In the Leiden data, most multivariate effects were smaller than the univariate effects, which is explained by the positive correlation between the risk factors. In the clinical prediction rule, cardiac, renal, and pulmonary comorbidity are the most important risk factors, while age per se has a moderate effect on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A readily applicable clinical prediction rule can be based on the combination of literature data and individual patient data. The risk estimates may be useful for clinical decision making in individual patients.