Ecological study estimating melanoma overdiagnosis in the USA using the lifetime risk method

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the proportion of melanoma diagnoses (invasive and in situ) in the USA that might be overdiagnosed.

DESIGN

In this ecological study, incidence and mortality data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 registries database. DevCan software was used to calculate the cumulative lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma between 1975 and 2018, with adjustments made for changes in longevity and risk factors over the study period.

SETTING

USA.

PARTICIPANTS

White American men and women (1975-2018).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted for year 2018 competing mortality and changes in risk factors), which was inferred as likely overdiagnosis. The secondary outcome was an excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis in each year between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted and unadjusted).

RESULTS

Between 1975 and 2018 the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma (invasive and in situ) increased from 3.2% (1 in 31) to 6.4% (1 in 16) among white men, and from 1.6% (1 in 63) to 4.5% (1 in 22) among white women. Over the same period, the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma in situ increased from 0.17% (1 in 588) to 2.7% (1 in 37) in white men and 0.08% (1 in 1250) to 2.0% (1 in 50) in white women. An estimated 49.7% of melanomas diagnosed in white men and 64.6% in white women were overdiagnosed in 2018. Among people diagnosed with melanomas in situ, 89.4% of white men and 85.4% of white women were likely overdiagnosed in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Melanoma overdiagnosis among white Americans is significant and increasing over time with an estimated 44 000 overdiagnosed in men and 39 000 in women in 2018. A large proportion of overdiagnosed melanomas are in situ cancers, pointing to a potential focus for intervention.

Uterine atony prophylaxis with carbetocin versus oxytocin and the risk of major haemorrhage during caesarean section: A retrospective cohort study

Carbetocin and oxytocin are commonly recommended agents for active management of the third stage of labour. Evidence is inconclusive whether either one more effectively reduces the occurrence of important postpartum haemorrhage outcomes at caesarean section. We examined whether carbetocin is associated with a lower risk of severe postpartum haemorrhage (blood loss ≥ 1000 ml) in comparison with oxytocin for the third stage of labour in women undergoing caesarean section. This was a retrospective cohort study among women undergoing scheduled or intrapartum caesarean section between 1 January 2010 and 2 July 2015 who received carbetocin or oxytocin for the third stage of labour. The primary outcome was severe postpartum haemorrhage. Secondary outcomes included blood transfusion, interventions, third stage complications and estimated blood loss. Outcomes were examined overall and by timing of birth, scheduled versus intrapartum, using propensity score-matched analysis. Among 21,027 eligible participants, 10,564 women who received carbetocin and 3836 women who received oxytocin at caesarean section were included in the analysis. Carbetocin was associated with a lower risk of severe postpartum haemorrhage overall (2.1% versus 3.3%; odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.79; P < 0.001). This reduction was apparent irrespective of timing of birth. Secondary outcomes also favoured carbetocin over oxytocin. In this retrospective cohort study, the risk of severe postpartum haemorrhage associated with carbetocin was lower than that associated with oxytocin in women undergoing caesarean section. Randomised clinical trials are needed to further investigate these findings.

Histo-blood group antigen profile of Australian Aboriginal children and seropositivity following oral rotavirus vaccination

BACKGROUND

Histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) may influence immune responses to rotavirus vaccination.

METHODS

HBGA phenotyping was determined by detection of antigens A, B, H and Lewis a and b in saliva using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Secretor status was confirmed by lectin antigen assay if A, B and H antigens were negative or borderline (OD ± 0.1 of threshold of detection). PCR-RFLP analysis was used to identify the FUT2 'G428A' mutation in a subset. Rotavirus seropositivity was defined as serum anti-rotavirus IgA ≥ 20 AU/mL.

RESULTS

Of 156 children, 119 (76 %) were secretors, 129 (83 %) were Lewis antigen positive, and 105 (67 %) were rotavirus IgA seropositive. Eighty-seven of 119 (73 %) secretors were rotavirus seropositive, versus 4/9 (44 %) weak secretors and 13/27 (48 %) non-secretors.

CONCLUSIONS

Most Australian Aboriginal children were secretor and Lewis antigen positive. Non-secretor children were less likely to be seropositive to rotavirus antibodies following vaccination, but this phenotype was less common. HBGA status is unlikely to fully explain underperformance of rotavirus vaccines among Australian Aboriginal children.

Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUND

Viral epidemics or pandemics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) pose a global threat. Examples are influenza (H1N1) caused by the H1N1pdm09 virus in 2009, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Antiviral drugs and vaccines may be insufficient to prevent their spread. This is an update of a Cochrane Review last published in 2020. We include results from studies from the current COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of acute respiratory viruses.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and two trials registers in October 2022, with backwards and forwards citation analysis on the new studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs investigating physical interventions (screening at entry ports, isolation, quarantine, physical distancing, personal protection, hand hygiene, face masks, glasses, and gargling) to prevent respiratory virus transmission.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 11 new RCTs and cluster-RCTs (610,872 participants) in this update, bringing the total number of RCTs to 78. Six of the new trials were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic; two from Mexico, and one each from Denmark, Bangladesh, England, and Norway. We identified four ongoing studies, of which one is completed, but unreported, evaluating masks concurrent with the COVID-19 pandemic. Many studies were conducted during non-epidemic influenza periods. Several were conducted during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and others in epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016. Therefore, many studies were conducted in the context of lower respiratory viral circulation and transmission compared to COVID-19. The included studies were conducted in heterogeneous settings, ranging from suburban schools to hospital wards in high-income countries; crowded inner city settings in low-income countries; and an immigrant neighbourhood in a high-income country. Adherence with interventions was low in many studies. The risk of bias for the RCTs and cluster-RCTs was mostly high or unclear. Medical/surgical masks compared to no masks We included 12 trials (10 cluster-RCTs) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks to prevent the spread of viral respiratory illness (two trials with healthcare workers and 10 in the community). Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza-like illness (ILI)/COVID-19 like illness compared to not wearing masks (risk ratio (RR) 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84 to 1.09; 9 trials, 276,917 participants; moderate-certainty evidence. Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza/SARS-CoV-2 compared to not wearing masks (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.42; 6 trials, 13,919 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported (very low-certainty evidence). N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks We pooled trials comparing N95/P2 respirators with medical/surgical masks (four in healthcare settings and one in a household setting). We are very uncertain on the effects of N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks on the outcome of clinical respiratory illness (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.10; 3 trials, 7779 participants; very low-certainty evidence). N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks may be effective for ILI (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.03; 5 trials, 8407 participants; low-certainty evidence). Evidence is limited by imprecision and heterogeneity for these subjective outcomes. The use of a N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks probably makes little or no difference for the objective and more precise outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.34; 5 trials, 8407 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Restricting pooling to healthcare workers made no difference to the overall findings. Harms were poorly measured and reported, but discomfort wearing medical/surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators was mentioned in several studies (very low-certainty evidence).  One previously reported ongoing RCT has now been published and observed that medical/surgical masks were non-inferior to N95 respirators in a large study of 1009 healthcare workers in four countries providing direct care to COVID-19 patients.  Hand hygiene compared to control Nineteen trials compared hand hygiene interventions with controls with sufficient data to include in meta-analyses. Settings included schools, childcare centres and homes. Comparing hand hygiene interventions with controls (i.e. no intervention), there was a 14% relative reduction in the number of people with ARIs in the hand hygiene group (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.90; 9 trials, 52,105 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), suggesting a probable benefit. In absolute terms this benefit would result in a reduction from 380 events per 1000 people to 327 per 1000 people (95% CI 308 to 342). When considering the more strictly defined outcomes of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza, the estimates of effect for ILI (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.09; 11 trials, 34,503 participants; low-certainty evidence), and laboratory-confirmed influenza (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.30; 8 trials, 8332 participants; low-certainty evidence), suggest the intervention made little or no difference. We pooled 19 trials (71, 210 participants) for the composite outcome of ARI or ILI or influenza, with each study only contributing once and the most comprehensive outcome reported. Pooled data showed that hand hygiene may be beneficial with an 11% relative reduction of respiratory illness (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94; low-certainty evidence), but with high heterogeneity. In absolute terms this benefit would result in a reduction from 200 events per 1000 people to 178 per 1000 people (95% CI 166 to 188). Few trials measured and reported harms (very low-certainty evidence). We found no RCTs on gowns and gloves, face shields, or screening at entry ports.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The high risk of bias in the trials, variation in outcome measurement, and relatively low adherence with the interventions during the studies hampers drawing firm conclusions. There were additional RCTs during the pandemic related to physical interventions but a relative paucity given the importance of the question of masking and its relative effectiveness and the concomitant measures of mask adherence which would be highly relevant to the measurement of effectiveness, especially in the elderly and in young children. There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low to moderate certainty of evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect. The pooled results of RCTs did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection. Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness, and although this effect was also present when ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza were analysed separately, it was not found to be a significant difference for the latter two outcomes. Harms associated with physical interventions were under-investigated. There is a need for large, well-designed RCTs addressing the effectiveness of many of these interventions in multiple settings and populations, as well as the impact of adherence on effectiveness, especially in those most at risk of ARIs.

Characteristics of exceptionally good Doctors-A survey of public adults

Background

Systematic reviews have found that doctors can have a substantial effect on patients' physical health, beyond what can be explained by known factors. In a previous qualitative study, 13 medical doctors were interviewed on their experiences of exceptionally good doctors, and all had met at least one such doctor.

Objective

To determine how common it is for exceptionally good doctors to be encountered by patients and what are the characteristics of exceptionally good doctors.

Design

Mixed methods cross-sectional survey of 580 Amazon Mechanical Turk participants. Questions included doctor and participant demographics, and 34 Likert questions on characteristics of exceptionally good and average doctors. Free-text questions allowed participants to describe exceptional doctors, record their experience, and provide survey feedback. Stratified sampling ensured gender parity and 33% of participants aged ≥55 years. Analysis included descriptive statistics, statistical modelling of associations between Likert scale scores and patient demographics, and factor analysis.

Results

Of 580 responses, 505 (86%) were included in the analysis. Factor analysis confirmed internal validity. Most respondents (86%) had met at least two exceptionally good doctors, of whom 55% were specialists. 58% of respondents regarded doctors as exceptional based on an overall impression with multiple reasons. Doctors were most commonly considered exceptional based on one or more of their personality, diagnostic, or intervention ability. Respondents who reported the doctors "willingly listened to them to the end" scored their doctors higher on 33 of 34 Likert questions, except for popularity. They also rated average doctors lower throughout.

Conclusions

Exceptionally good doctors appear to be commonly encountered by the adult public. Listening to patients willingly to the end is a highly rated and influential characteristic, suggesting that listening could be targeted for quality improvement.

Understanding African American vernacular English and reading achievement: Implications for the science of reading

The purpose of this article is to discuss issues of language, specifically African American Vernacular English (AAVE), as it relates to the reading performance of African American children. Previous research on the science of reading provides a research-based framework that is a starting point for evidence-based research that can be used to improve the reading outcomes of African American children. School psychology literature is limited in its inclusion of issues posed by deficit perspectives of AAVE with Black children and reading achievement. Given that practicing school psychologists spend significant portions of their time conducting assessments related to identifying and remediating reading problems, an increased awareness on how AAVE can impact African American children's reading performance is necessary. Implications for research and practice will be discussed, such as inclusion of instruments to differentiate between reading difficulties and dialect differences (i.e., Diagnostic Evaluation of Language Variation). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Characteristics of Exceptionally Good Doctors: A Protocol for a Cross-Sectional Survey of Adults

Background

Doctors constitute a significant proportion of a very large number of medical interactions. They are known to vary in the quality of their work, with some having an exceptionally beneficial effect on patients’ physical health. In a qualitative study, we interviewed medical doctors on their opinions and experiences of exceptionally good doctors. Their responses and the results from previous research are used as a basis for this proposed cross-sectional survey directed to members of the public on their encounters with exceptionally good doctors. The primary aim of this cross-sectional study is to describe the characteristics of exceptional doctors as reported by a large representative sample of adult patients.

Methods and Analysis

A mixed qualitative and quantitative anonymous cross-sectional survey of 500 Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) respondents, who have met one or more exceptionally good doctors in their life, will be conducted. Information requested will include reasons for nominating a particular doctor; experience of how that doctor differs from other and average doctors; and 34 5-point Likert scale questions on the characteristics of that doctor and the same Likert questions for the average doctor. An opportunity to report their experience in free-text form will be provided. Sample size will be sufficient to obtain a margin of error of 4%. The authors will provide descriptive statistics, including graphs of the Likert scale question responses; conduct factor analysis for internal validity; investigate satisficing and logical inconsistencies; and explore whether there are multiple types of exceptionally good doctors.

Discussion

Previous surveys of patients’ perceptions of doctors exist though none have focused on exceptionally good doctors. The expected results will include a list of characteristics that are important to patients in determining exceptionally good doctors.

Is There a Doctors' Effect on Patients' Physical Health, Beyond the Intervention and All Known Factors? A Systematic Review

Purpose

Despite billions of doctor visits worldwide each year, little is known on whether doctors themselves affect patients’ physical health after accounting for intervention and confounders such as patients’ and doctors’ data, hospital effects, nor how strong that doctors’ effect is. Knowledge of surgeons’ and psychotherapists’ effects exists, but not for 102 other medical specialties notwithstanding the importance of such knowledge.

Methods

Eligibility Criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs), case-control, and cohort studies including medical doctors except surgeons for any intervention, reporting the proportion of variance in patients’ outcomes owing to the doctors (random effects), or the fixed effects of grading doctors by outcomes, after multivariate adjustment. Exclusions: studies of <15 doctors or solely reporting doctors’ effects for known variables.

Sources

Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, inception to June 2020. Manual search for papers referring/referred to by resulting studies.

Risk of Bias

Using Newcastle–Ottawa scale.

Results

Despite all medical interventions bar surgery being eligible, only thirty cohort papers were found, covering 36,239 doctors, with 10 specialties, 21 interventions, 60 outcomes (17 unique). Studies reported doctors’ effects by grading doctors from best to worst, or by diversely calculating the doctor-attributed percentage of patients’ outcome variation, ie the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Sixteen studies presented fixed effects, 18 random effects, and 3 another approach. No RCTs found. Thirteen studies reported exceptionally good and/or poor performers with confidence intervals wholly outside the average performance. ICC range 0 to 33%, mean 3.9%. Highly diverse reporting, meta-analysis therefore not applicable.

Conclusion

Doctors, on their own, can affect patients’ physical health for many interventions and outcomes. Effects range from negligible to substantial, even after accounting for all known variables. Many published cohorts may reveal valuable information by reanalyzing their data for doctors’ effects. Positive and negative doctor outliers appear regularly. Therefore, it can matter which doctor is chosen.

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The Doctors' Effect on Patients' Physical Health Outcomes Beyond the Intervention: A Methodological Review

Background

Previous research suggests that when a treatment is delivered, patients’ outcomes may vary systematically by medical practitioner.

Objective

To conduct a methodological review of studies reporting on the effect of doctors on patients’ physical health outcomes and to provide recommendations on how this effect could be measured and reported in a consistent and appropriate way.

Methods

The data source was 79 included studies and randomized controlled trials from a systematic review of doctors’ effects on patients’ physical health. We qualitatively assessed the studies and summarized how the doctors’ effect was measured and reported.

Results

The doctors’ effects on patients’ physical health outcomes were reported as fixed effects, identifying high and low outliers, or random effects, which estimate the variation in patient health outcomes due to the doctor after accounting for all available variables via the intra-class correlation coefficient. Multivariable multilevel regression is commonly used to adjust for patient risk, doctor experience and other demographics, and also to account for the clustering effect of hospitals in estimating both fixed and random effects.

Conclusion

This methodological review identified inconsistencies in how the doctor’s effect on patients’ physical health outcomes is measured and reported. For grading doctors from worst to best performances and estimating random effects, specific recommendations are given along with the specific data points to report.

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Qualitative Study of Medical Doctors on Their Experiences and Opinions of the Characteristics of Exceptionally Good Doctors

BACKGROUND

It is generally accepted that there is a therapist effect in psychotherapy, with master therapists being studied using qualitative methods. There are surgeons with exceptionally positive patients' physical health outcomes, and qualitative research on what makes good doctors. However, characteristics of exceptionally good doctors are less studied and understood.

OBJECTIVE

To qualitatively study the opinions of physicians on exceptionally good doctors.

METHODS

Thirteen semi-structured interviews of English-speaking medical doctors of any specialty were conducted. Recruitment was achieved through the authors' network; contacting authors of relevant research papers; and Bond University's General Practitioner recruitment program. Their opinion was sought on what makes an exceptionally good doctor, whether they have met such a person, what was their experience of that person, and whether they consider themselves as exceptionally good doctors.

ANALYSIS

A six-phase thematic analysis in an experiential framework, as per Braun and Clarke, was implemented to identify themes and their details in an inductive approach with a realist epistemological position, ie, assuming truthful knowledge on what makes exceptionally good doctors can be obtained.

RESULTS

Each interviewee had met and been inspired by exceptionally good doctors. Descriptions covered six themes: character traits; other characteristics; patient relationships; peer and health care system relations; education; and treatment examples. Exceptionally good doctors were found to have up-to-date extensive medical knowledge and skills, relate well with patients, and have excellent diagnostic abilities. They tend to be humble, approachable, inspiring, and are long-remembered role models. However, they may not always be appreciated by their peers and their health care system because of their exceptional abilities.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Exceptional doctors are beneficial for their peers, their patients, and their health care system. Identifying, acknowledging, and making such doctors more accessible to medical students and junior doctors could have a positive impact on medical practice.

Is There a Surgeons’ Effect on Patients’ Physical Health, Beyond the Intervention, That Requires Further Investigation? A Systematic Review

Objective

To find and review published papers researching surgeons’ effects on patients’ physical health. Clinical outcomes of surgery patients with similar prognoses cannot be fully explained by surgeon skill or experience. Just as there are “hospital” and “psychotherapist” effects, there may be “surgeons” effects that persist after controlling for known variables like patient health and operation riskiness.

Methods

Cohort studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of any surgical intervention, which, after multivariate adjustment, either showed proportion of variance in patients’ physical health outcomes due to surgeons (random effects) or graded surgeons from best to worst (fixed effects). Studies with <15 surgeons or only ascribing surgeons’ effects to known variables excluded. Medline, PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO were used for search until June 2020. Manual search for papers referring/referred by resulting studies. Risk of bias assessed by Cochrane risk-of-bias tool and Newcastle–Ottawa Scale.

Results

Included studies: 52 cohort studies and three RCTs of 52,436+ surgeons covering 102 outcomes (33 unique). Studies either graded surgeons from best to worst or calculated the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), the percentage of patients’ variation due to surgeons, in diverse ways. Sixteen studies showed exceptionally good and/or bad performers with confidence intervals wholly above or below the average performance. ICCs ranged from 0 to 47%, median 4.0%. There are no well-established reporting standards; highly heterogeneous reporting, therefore no meta-analysis.

Discussion

Interpretation: There is a surgeons' effect on patients’ physical health for many types of surgeries and outcomes, ranging from small to substantial. Surgeons with exceptional patient outcomes appear regularly even after accounting for all known confounding variables. Many existing cohort studies and RCTs could be reanalyzed for surgeons’ effects especially after methodological reporting guidelines are published.

Conclusion

In terms of patient outcomes, it can matter which surgeon is chosen. Surgeons with exceptional patient outcomes are worth studying further.

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Protocol for a Qualitative Study on Doctors' Opinions on and Experiences of Exceptionally Good Doctors

OBJECTIVE

Doctors have a varying effect on patients' physical health. This means that there are doctors that are more effective than others. Even though the doctor is a part of very many medical interactions, it is not known in which way exceptionally good doctors differ from their peers. After authoring two systematic and one methodological review on identifying exceptional doctors, the authors in this qualitative interview-based study take a bottom-up, inductive approach to answer the question of what makes an exceptionally good doctor.

METHODS

About 10-15 semi-structured interviews of medical doctors of any specialty who speak English will be conducted. Recruitment will be through the authors' network and their referrals. Questions will be whether they have an opinion on what makes an exceptionally good doctor, whether they have met such a person and how did this doctor differ from other doctors. The interviews will be done by a 62-year old PhD student who is not a clinician but has extensive experience in having personal conversations as a financial adviser. This could be helpful as the interviewer is only aware that there are exceptionally good doctors but has no notion how exceptionally good doctors differ from their colleagues.

ANALYSIS

A six-phase thematic analysis in an experiential framework as per Braun and Clarke will be implemented with the aim to find out what the doctors think and have experienced. This is an inductive approach using a realist epistemological position under the assumption that it is possible to acquire truthful knowledge on what makes exceptionally good doctors.

DISCUSSION

Previous qualitative research on exceptionally good doctors consisted of interviewing author-selected exceptionally good doctors. This study takes a step back from this approach by asking the peers of exceptionally good doctors how they define being exceptionally good and how they experience such doctors.

Risk Factors of Shoulder and Elbow Injuries in Baseball: A Scoping Review of 3 Types of Evidence

Background

Shoulder and elbow overuse injuries are the most common problems in baseball players. No scoping review has compared the findings from different types of evidence.

Purpose

To map the broad evidence from 3 types of evidence (epidemiological, biomechanical, and narrative) on potential risk factors for shoulder and elbow injuries in baseball and identify gaps in the existing literature to guide future research.

Study Design

Scoping review.

Methods

Eight electronic databases were searched from inception to May 14, 2020. Any peer-reviewed papers that investigated or discussed potential risk factors for shoulder and elbow injuries in baseball were included.

Results

A total of 302 studies (107 epidemiological studies, 85 biomechanical studies, and 110 narrative reviews) were included. Risk factors were categorized into 9 domains: sports profiles, physical characteristics/functions, pitching mechanics, performance, behavioral, psychosocial, biological and developmental, injury/sports profiles, and environmental factors. Studies were consistent in supporting limited shoulder range of motion (ROM) and player positions (pitchers or catchers) as risk factors for shoulder injuries. For elbow injuries, the majority of the included studies suggested that being pitchers or catchers and working with higher ball velocity can be risk factors.

Conclusion

Findings were consistent in some risk factors, such as limited shoulder ROM and positions. However, findings were inconsistent or limited for most factors, and substantial research gaps were identified. Research assessing those factors with inconsistent or limited evidence in the current literature were recognized to be priorities for future studies.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline) oral rotavirus vaccine is licensed as 2 doses in the first 6 months of life. In settings with high child mortality rates, clinical protection conferred by 2 doses of Rotarix is reduced. We assessed vaccine immune response when an additional dose of Rotarix was given to Australian Aboriginal children 6 to <12 months old.

Methods

ORVAC is a 2-stage, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Australian Aboriginal children 6 to <12 months old who had received 1 or 2 prior doses of Rotarix rotavirus vaccine were randomized 1:1 to receive an additional dose of Rotarix or matched placebo. The primary immunological end point was seroresponse defined as an anti-rotavirus immunoglobulin A level ≥20 AU/mL, 28–56 days after the additional dose of Rotarix or placebo.

Results

Between March 2018 and August 2020, a total of 253 infants were enrolled. Of these, 178 infants (70%) had analyzable serological results after follow-up; 89 were randomized to receive Rotarix, and 89 to receive placebo. The proportion with seroresponse was 85% after Rotarix compared with 72% after placebo. There were no occurrences of intussusception or any serious adverse events.

Conclusions

An additional dose of Rotarix administered to Australian Aboriginal infants 6 to <12 months old increased the proportion with a vaccine seroresponse.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT02941107.

Progression of Intracranial Hemorrhage After Chemical Prophylaxis Using Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin in Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury

INTRODUCTION

Chemical prophylaxis using low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) is considered a standard of care for venous thromboembolism in trauma patients. Our center performs a head computed tomography (CT) scan 24 hours after initiation with prophylactic LMWH in the setting of a known traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose was to determine the overall incidence of ICH progression after chemoprophylaxis in patients with a TBI.

METHODS

This retrospective study was performed at a Level I trauma center, from 1/1/2014 to 12/31/2017. Study patients were drawn from the institution's trauma registry based on Abbreviated Injury Score codes.

RESULTS

778 patients met all inclusion criteria after initial chart review. The proportion of patients with an observed radiographic progression of intracranial hemorrhage after LMWH was 5.8%. 3.1% of patients had a change in clinical management. Observed radiographic progression after LMWH prophylaxis and the presence of SDH on initial CT, the bilateral absence of pupillary response in the emergency department, and a diagnosis of dementia were found to have statistically significant correlation with bleed progression after LMWH was initiated.

CONCLUSION

Over a 4-year period, the use of CT to evaluate for radiographic progression of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage 24 hours after receiving LMWH resulted in a change in clinical management for 3.1% of patients. The odds of intracranial hemorrhage progression were approximately 6.5× greater in patients with subdural hemorrhage on initial CT, 3.1× greater in patients with lack of bilateral pupillary response in ED, and 4.2× greater in patients who had been diagnosed with dementia.

Calcineurin-Inhibitor Induced Pain Syndrome in a Heart Transplant Patient

Calcineurin-inhibitor induced pain syndrome (CIPS) also called the "symmetrical bone syndrome" is a condition describing reversible lower extremity pain in patients after organ transplantation who are receiving calcineurin inhibitors, especially tacrolimus. We present a case of CIPS after orthotopic heart transplant complicated with concurrent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We emphasize the presentation; diagnostic evaluation, and findings. We then discuss the proposed pathophysiologic mechanisms of CIPS and conclude with discussion of management strategies. Additionally, we present a table to guide clinicians in assessing posttransplant bone pain syndromes. To our knowledge, this is the first article to describe a case of CIPS with concurrent SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Left Ventricular Impaired Relaxation and Interstitial Myocarditis Identified in Sepsis-Associated Cardiac Dysfunction: Use of a Rodent Model

BACKGROUND Sepsis is a serious clinical problem that results from the systemic response of the body to infection. Left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction is increasingly appreciated as a contributor to morbidity and mortality in sepsis. Animal models may offer a method of studying diastolic dysfunction while controlling for many potential clinical confounders, such as sepsis duration, premorbid condition, and therapeutic interventions. This study sought to evaluate an endotoxemia (LPS) rodent model of sepsis, with regard to echocardiographic evidence, including tissue Doppler, of LV diastolic dysfunction and histopathology findings. MATERIAL AND METHODS Fourteen male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly allocated (1: 1) to LPS or saline (control). Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) was measured through cannulation of the carotid artery. After a 30-min stabilization, baseline assessment with echocardiography and blood collection was performed. Rats were administered 0.9% saline or LPS (10 mg/mL). Follow-up echocardiography and blood collection were performed after 2 h. Hearts were removed post-mortem and pathology studied using histology and immunohistochemistry. RESULTS LPS was associated with hypotension (MAP 81.86±31.67 mmHg; 124.29±20.16; p=0.02) and LV impaired relaxation (myocardial early diastolic velocity [e'] 0.06±0.02 m/s; 0.09±0.02; P=0.008). Histopathology and immunohistochemistry demonstrated evidence of interstitial myocarditis (hydropic changes and inflammation). CONCLUSIONS LPS was associated with both diastolic dysfunction (impaired relaxation) and interstitial myocarditis. These features may offer a link between the structural and functional changes that have previously been described separately in clinical sepsis. This may facilitate further studies focused upon the mechanism and potential benefit treatment of sepsis-associated cardiac dysfunction.

Sleep Quality and Daytime Sleepiness in Prelicensure Baccalaureate Nursing Students

BACKGROUND

Nursing students need to learn about sleep health to provide safe patient care. The purpose of this study was to investigate sleep in nursing students and describe factors that affect their sleep.

METHOD

This study used a cross-sectional descriptive design with a convenience sample from baccalaureate nursing programs in a midwestern region of the United States. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, and Sleep Hygiene Index.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-four nursing students reported poor sleep quality, excessive daytime sleepiness, and maladaptive sleep hygiene, regardless of their year of study or enrollment status. Behavior of technology use into the night was the most frequent reason why students lost sleep.

CONCLUSION

Learning the importance of sleep hygiene, good sleep quality, and the associated health benefits may assist nursing students with achieving optimal daytime functioning. Consideration should be given to sleep health content as a thread through nursing curriculum. [J Nurs Educ. 2021;60(4):196-202.].

Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUND

Viral epidemics or pandemics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) pose a global threat. Examples are influenza (H1N1) caused by the H1N1pdm09 virus in 2009, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Antiviral drugs and vaccines may be insufficient to prevent their spread. This is an update of a Cochrane Review published in 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011. The evidence summarised in this review does not include results from studies from the current COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of acute respiratory viruses.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL on 1 April 2020. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, and the WHO ICTRP on 16 March 2020. We conducted a backwards and forwards citation analysis on the newly included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs of trials investigating physical interventions (screening at entry ports, isolation, quarantine, physical distancing, personal protection, hand hygiene, face masks, and gargling) to prevent respiratory virus transmission. In previous versions of this review we also included observational studies. However, for this update, there were sufficient RCTs to address our study aims.   DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence. Three pairs of review authors independently extracted data using a standard template applied in previous versions of this review, but which was revised to reflect our focus on RCTs and cluster-RCTs for this update. We did not contact trialists for missing data due to the urgency in completing the review. We extracted data on adverse events (harms) associated with the interventions.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 44 new RCTs and cluster-RCTs in this update, bringing the total number of randomised trials to 67. There were no included studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Six ongoing studies were identified, of which three evaluating masks are being conducted concurrent with the COVID pandemic, and one is completed. Many studies were conducted during non-epidemic influenza periods, but several studies were conducted during the global H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009, and others in epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016. Thus, studies were conducted in the context of lower respiratory viral circulation and transmission compared to COVID-19. The included studies were conducted in heterogeneous settings, ranging from suburban schools to hospital wards in high-income countries; crowded inner city settings in low-income countries; and an immigrant neighbourhood in a high-income country. Compliance with interventions was low in many studies. The risk of bias for the RCTs and cluster-RCTs was mostly high or unclear. Medical/surgical masks compared to no masks We included nine trials (of which eight were cluster-RCTs) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks to prevent the spread of viral respiratory illness (two trials with healthcare workers and seven in the community). There is low certainty evidence from nine trials (3507 participants) that wearing a mask may make little or no difference to the outcome of influenza-like illness (ILI) compared to not wearing a mask (risk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 1.18. There is moderate certainty evidence that wearing a mask probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza compared to not wearing a mask (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.26; 6 trials; 3005 participants). Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported. Two studies during COVID-19 plan to recruit a total of 72,000 people. One evaluates medical/surgical masks (N = 6000) (published Annals of Internal Medicine, 18 Nov 2020), and one evaluates cloth masks (N = 66,000). N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks We pooled trials comparing N95/P2 respirators with medical/surgical masks (four in healthcare settings and one in a household setting). There is uncertainty over the effects of N95/P2 respirators when compared with medical/surgical masks on the outcomes of clinical respiratory illness (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.10; very low-certainty evidence; 3 trials; 7779 participants) and ILI (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.03; low-certainty evidence; 5 trials; 8407 participants). The evidence is limited by imprecision and heterogeneity for these subjective outcomes. The use of a N95/P2 respirator compared to a medical/surgical mask probably makes little or no difference for the objective and more precise outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.34; moderate-certainty evidence; 5 trials; 8407 participants). Restricting the pooling to healthcare workers made no difference to the overall findings. Harms were poorly measured and reported, but discomfort wearing medical/surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators was mentioned in several studies. One ongoing study recruiting 576 people compares N95/P2 respirators with medical surgical masks for healthcare workers during COVID-19. Hand hygiene compared to control Settings included schools, childcare centres, homes, and offices. In a comparison of hand hygiene interventions with control (no intervention), there was a 16% relative reduction in the number of people with ARIs in the hand hygiene group (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.86; 7 trials; 44,129 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), suggesting a probable benefit. When considering the more strictly defined outcomes of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza, the estimates of effect for ILI (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.13; 10 trials; 32,641 participants; low-certainty evidence) and laboratory-confirmed influenza (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.30; 8 trials; 8332 participants; low-certainty evidence) suggest the intervention made little or no difference. We pooled all 16 trials (61,372 participants) for the composite outcome of ARI or ILI or influenza, with each study only contributing once and the most comprehensive outcome reported. The pooled data showed that hand hygiene may offer a benefit with an 11% relative reduction of respiratory illness (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.95; low-certainty evidence), but with high heterogeneity. Few trials measured and reported harms. There are two ongoing studies of handwashing interventions in 395 children outside of COVID-19. We identified one RCT on quarantine/physical distancing. Company employees in Japan were asked to stay at home if household members had ILI symptoms. Overall fewer people in the intervention group contracted influenza compared with workers in the control group (2.75% versus 3.18%; hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.97). However, those who stayed at home with their infected family members were 2.17 times more likely to be infected. We found no RCTs on eye protection, gowns and gloves, or screening at entry ports.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The high risk of bias in the trials, variation in outcome measurement, and relatively low compliance with the interventions during the studies hamper drawing firm conclusions and generalising the findings to the current COVID-19 pandemic. There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low-moderate certainty of the evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect. The pooled results of randomised trials did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks during seasonal influenza. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection. Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness. Harms associated with physical interventions were under-investigated. There is a need for large, well-designed RCTs addressing the effectiveness of many of these interventions in multiple settings and populations, especially in those most at risk of ARIs.

Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUND

Viral epidemics or pandemics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) pose a global threat. Examples are influenza (H1N1) caused by the H1N1pdm09 virus in 2009, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Antiviral drugs and vaccines may be insufficient to prevent their spread. This is an update of a Cochrane Review published in 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011. The evidence summarised in this review does not include results from studies from the current COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of acute respiratory viruses.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL on 1 April 2020. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, and the WHO ICTRP on 16 March 2020. We conducted a backwards and forwards citation analysis on the newly included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs of trials investigating physical interventions (screening at entry ports, isolation, quarantine, physical distancing, personal protection, hand hygiene, face masks, and gargling) to prevent respiratory virus transmission. In previous versions of this review we also included observational studies. However, for this update, there were sufficient RCTs to address our study aims.   DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence. Three pairs of review authors independently extracted data using a standard template applied in previous versions of this review, but which was revised to reflect our focus on RCTs and cluster-RCTs for this update. We did not contact trialists for missing data due to the urgency in completing the review. We extracted data on adverse events (harms) associated with the interventions.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 44 new RCTs and cluster-RCTs in this update, bringing the total number of randomised trials to 67. There were no included studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Six ongoing studies were identified, of which three evaluating masks are being conducted concurrent with the COVID pandemic, and one is completed. Many studies were conducted during non-epidemic influenza periods, but several studies were conducted during the global H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009, and others in epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016. Thus, studies were conducted in the context of lower respiratory viral circulation and transmission compared to COVID-19. The included studies were conducted in heterogeneous settings, ranging from suburban schools to hospital wards in high-income countries; crowded inner city settings in low-income countries; and an immigrant neighbourhood in a high-income country. Compliance with interventions was low in many studies. The risk of bias for the RCTs and cluster-RCTs was mostly high or unclear. Medical/surgical masks compared to no masks We included nine trials (of which eight were cluster-RCTs) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks to prevent the spread of viral respiratory illness (two trials with healthcare workers and seven in the community). There is low certainty evidence from nine trials (3507 participants) that wearing a mask may make little or no difference to the outcome of influenza-like illness (ILI) compared to not wearing a mask (risk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 1.18. There is moderate certainty evidence that wearing a mask probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza compared to not wearing a mask (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.26; 6 trials; 3005 participants). Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported. Two studies during COVID-19 plan to recruit a total of 72,000 people. One evaluates medical/surgical masks (N = 6000) (published Annals of Internal Medicine, 18 Nov 2020), and one evaluates cloth masks (N = 66,000). N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks We pooled trials comparing N95/P2 respirators with medical/surgical masks (four in healthcare settings and one in a household setting). There is uncertainty over the effects of N95/P2 respirators when compared with medical/surgical masks on the outcomes of clinical respiratory illness (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.10; very low-certainty evidence; 3 trials; 7779 participants) and ILI (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.03; low-certainty evidence; 5 trials; 8407 participants). The evidence is limited by imprecision and heterogeneity for these subjective outcomes. The use of a N95/P2 respirator compared to a medical/surgical mask probably makes little or no difference for the objective and more precise outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.34; moderate-certainty evidence; 5 trials; 8407 participants). Restricting the pooling to healthcare workers made no difference to the overall findings. Harms were poorly measured and reported, but discomfort wearing medical/surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators was mentioned in several studies. One ongoing study recruiting 576 people compares N95/P2 respirators with medical surgical masks for healthcare workers during COVID-19. Hand hygiene compared to control Settings included schools, childcare centres, homes, and offices. In a comparison of hand hygiene interventions with control (no intervention), there was a 16% relative reduction in the number of people with ARIs in the hand hygiene group (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.86; 7 trials; 44,129 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), suggesting a probable benefit. When considering the more strictly defined outcomes of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza, the estimates of effect for ILI (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.13; 10 trials; 32,641 participants; low-certainty evidence) and laboratory-confirmed influenza (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.30; 8 trials; 8332 participants; low-certainty evidence) suggest the intervention made little or no difference. We pooled all 16 trials (61,372 participants) for the composite outcome of ARI or ILI or influenza, with each study only contributing once and the most comprehensive outcome reported. The pooled data showed that hand hygiene may offer a benefit with an 11% relative reduction of respiratory illness (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.95; low-certainty evidence), but with high heterogeneity. Few trials measured and reported harms. There are two ongoing studies of handwashing interventions in 395 children outside of COVID-19. We identified one RCT on quarantine/physical distancing. Company employees in Japan were asked to stay at home if household members had ILI symptoms. Overall fewer people in the intervention group contracted influenza compared with workers in the control group (2.75% versus 3.18%; hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.97). However, those who stayed at home with their infected family members were 2.17 times more likely to be infected. We found no RCTs on eye protection, gowns and gloves, or screening at entry ports.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The high risk of bias in the trials, variation in outcome measurement, and relatively low compliance with the interventions during the studies hamper drawing firm conclusions and generalising the findings to the current COVID-19 pandemic. There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low-moderate certainty of the evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect. The pooled results of randomised trials did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks during seasonal influenza. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection. Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness. Harms associated with physical interventions were under-investigated. There is a need for large, well-designed RCTs addressing the effectiveness of many of these interventions in multiple settings and populations, especially in those most at risk of ARIs.

Impact of Rotavirus Vaccines on Gastroenteritis Hospitalizations in Western Australia: A Time-series Analysis

Background

Rotavirus vaccination was introduced into the Australian National Immunisation Program in mid-2007. We aimed to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccination program on the burden of hospitalizations associated with all-cause acute gastroenteritis (including rotavirus gastroenteritis and non-rotavirus gastroenteritis) in the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population in Western Australia.

Methods

We identified all hospital records, between July 2004 and June 2012, with a discharge diagnosis code for all-cause gastroenteritis. Age-specific hospitalization rates for rotavirus and non-rotavirus acute gastroenteritis before and after the introduction of the rotavirus vaccination program were compared. Interrupted time-series models were used to examine differences in the annual trends of all-cause gastroenteritis hospitalization between the two periods.

Results

Between July 2004 and June 2012, there were a total of 106,974 all-cause gastroenteritis-coded hospitalizations (1,381 rotavirus-coded [15% among Aboriginal] and 105,593 non-rotavirus gastroenteritis-coded [7% among Aboriginal]). Following rotavirus vaccination introduction, significant reductions in rotavirus-coded hospitalization rates were observed in all children aged <5 years (up to 79% among non-Aboriginal and up to 66% among Aboriginal). Among adults aged ≥65 years, rotavirus-coded hospitalizations were 89% (95% confidence interval, 16–187%) higher in the rotavirus vaccination program period. The time-series analysis suggested reductions in all-cause gastroenteritis hospitalizations in the post-vaccination period among both vaccinated and unvaccinated (age-ineligible) children, with increases observed in adults aged ≥45 years.

Conclusions

Rotavirus vaccination has been associated with a significant decline in gastroenteritis hospitalizations among children. The increase in the elderly requires further evaluation, including assessment of the cost-benefits of rotavirus vaccination in this population.

The ORVAC trial: a phase IV, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of a third scheduled dose of Rotarix rotavirus vaccine in Australian Indigenous infants to improve protection against gastroenteritis: a statistical analysis plan

Objective

The purpose of this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, adaptive design trial with frequent interim analyses is to determine if Australian Indigenous children, who receive an additional (third) dose of human rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix, GlaxoSmithKline) for children aged 6 to < 12 months, would improve protection against clinically significant all-cause gastroenteritis.

Participants

Up to 1000 Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereafter Indigenous) infants aged 6 to < 12 months will be recruited from all regions of the Northern Territory.

Interventions

The intervention is the addition of a third scheduled dose of human monovalent rotavirus vaccine.

Co-primary and secondary outcome measures

ORVAC has two co-primary outcomes: (1) anti-rotavirus IgA seroconversion, defined as serum anti-rotavirus IgA ≥ 20 U/ml 28 to 55 days post Rotarix/placebo, and (2) time from randomisation to medical attendance for which the primary reason for presentation is acute gastroenteritis or acute diarrhoea illness before age 36 months. Secondary outcomes include (1) change in anti-rotavirus IgA log titre, (2) time from randomisation to hospitalisation with primary admission code presumed or confirmed acute diarrhoea illness before age 36 months, (3) time from randomisation to hospitalisation for which the admission is rotavirus confirmed diarrhoea illness before age 36 months and (4) time from randomisation to rotavirus infection (not necessarily requiring hospitalisation) meeting the jurisdictional definition before age 36 months.

Discussion

A detailed, prospective statistical analysis plan is presented for this Bayesian adaptive design. The plan was written by the trial statistician and details the study design, pre-specified adaptative elements, decision thresholds, statistical methods and the simulations used to evaluate the operating characteristics of the trial. As at August 2020, four interim analyses have been run, but no stopping rules have been triggered. Application of this SAP will minimise bias and supports transparent and reproducible research.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02941107. Registered on 21 October 2016

Original protocol for the study

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032549

Estimating the magnitude of cancer overdiagnosis in Australia

Objectives

To estimate the proportion of cancer diagnoses in Australia that might reasonably be attributed to overdiagnosis by comparing current and past lifetime risks of cancer.

Design, setting, and participants

Routinely collected Australian Institute of Health and Welfare national data were analysed to estimate recent (2012) and historical (1982) lifetime risks (adjusted for competing risk of death and changes in risk factors) of diagnoses with five cancers: prostate, breast, renal, thyroid cancers, and melanoma.

Main outcome measure

Difference in lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2012, interpreted as probable overdiagnosis.

Results

For women, absolute lifetime risk increased by 3.4 percentage points for breast cancer (invasive cancers, 1.7 percentage points), 0.6 percentage point for renal cancer, 1.0 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 5.1 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 0.7 percentage point). An estimated 22% of breast cancers (invasive cancers, 13%), 58% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 54% of melanomas (invasive melanoma, 15%) were overdiagnosed, or 18% of all cancer diagnoses (8% of invasive cancer diagnoses). For men, absolute lifetime risk increased by 8.2 percentage points for prostate cancer, 0.8 percentage point for renal cancer, 0.4 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 8.0 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 1.5 percentage points). An estimated 42% of prostate cancers, 42% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 58% of melanomas (invasive melanomas, 22%) were overdiagnosed, or 24% of all cancer diagnoses (16% of invasive cancer diagnoses). Alternative assumptions slightly modified the estimates for overdiagnosis of breast cancer and melanoma.

Conclusions

About 11 000 cancers in women and 18 000 in men may be overdiagnosed each year. Rates of overdiagnosis need to be reduced and health services should monitor emerging areas of overdiagnosis.

The ORVAC trial protocol: a phase IV, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of a third scheduled dose of Rotarix rotavirus vaccine in Australian Indigenous infants to improve protection against gastroenteritis

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus vaccines were introduced into the Australian National Immunisation Program in 2007. Despite this, Northern Territory Indigenous children continue to be hospitalised with rotavirus at a rate more than 20 times higher than non-Indigenous children in other Australian jurisdictions, with evidence of waning protection in the second year of life. We hypothesised that scheduling an additional (third) dose of oral human rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix, GlaxoSmithKline) for children aged 6 to <12 months would improve protection against clinically significant all-cause gastroenteritis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This Bayesian adaptive clinical trial will investigate whether routinely scheduling an additional dose of Rotarix for Australian Indigenous children aged 6 to <12 months old confers significantly better protection against clinically important all-cause gastroenteritis than the current two-dose schedule at 2 and 4 months old. There are two coprimary endpoints: (1) seroconversion from baseline serum anti-rotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) titre <20 U/mL prior to an additional dose of Rotarix/placebo to serum anti-rotavirus IgA titre >20 U/mL following the administration of the additional dose of Rotarix/placebo and (2) time from randomisation to medical attendance (up to age 36 months old) for which the primary reason is acute gastroenteritis/diarrhoea. Secondary endpoints include the change in anti-rotavirus IgA log titre, time to hospitalisation for all-cause diarrhoea and for rotavirus-confirmed gastroenteritis/diarrhoea, and rotavirus notification. Analysis will be based on Bayesian inference with adaptive sample size.

ETHICS, REGISTRATION AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been granted by Central Australian Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC-16-426) and Human Research Ethics Committee of the Northern Territory Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research (HREC-2016-2658). Study investigators will ensure the trial is conducted in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and with the ICH Guidelines for Good Clinical Practice. Individual participant consent will be obtained. Results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publication. The trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02941107) and important modifications to this protocol will be updated.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02941107; Pre-results.

Is the risk of cancer in Australia overstated? The importance of competing mortality for estimating lifetime risk

OBJECTIVES

To calculate lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis and cancer-specific death, adjusted for competing mortality, and to compare these estimates with the corresponding risks published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

DESIGN, SETTING

Analysis of publicly available annual AIHW data on age-specific cancer incidence and mortality - for breast cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, melanoma of the skin, and lung cancer - and all-cause mortality in Australia, 1982-2013.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis and mortality (to age 85), adjusted for competing mortality.

RESULTS

During 1982-2013, AIHW estimates were consistently higher than our competing mortality-adjusted estimates of lifetime risks of diagnosis and death for all five cancers. Differences between AIHW and adjusted estimates declined with time for breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, and lung cancer (for men only), but remained steady for lung cancer (women only) and melanoma of the skin. In 2013, the respective estimated lifetime risks of diagnosis (AIHW and adjusted) were 12.7% and 12.1% for breast cancer, 18.7% and 16.2% for prostate cancer, 9.0% and 7.0% (men) and 6.4% and 5.5% (women) for colorectal cancer, 7.5% and 6.0% (men) and 4.4% and 4.0% (women) for melanoma of the skin, and 7.6% and 5.8% (men) and 4.5% and 3.9% (women) for lung cancer.

CONCLUSION

The method employed in Australia to calculate the lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis and mortality overestimates these risks, especially for men.

SToP (See, Treat, Prevent) skin sores and scabies trial: study protocol for a cluster randomised, stepped-wedge trial for skin disease control in remote Western Australia

INTRODUCTION

Skin is important in Australian Aboriginal culture informing kinship and identity. In many remote Aboriginal communities, scabies and impetigo are very common. Untreated skin infections are painful, itchy and frequently go untreated due to under-recognition and lack of awareness of their potential serious complications. We hypothesise that the skin infection burden in remote Aboriginal communities can be reduced by implementing streamlined training and treatment pathways integrated with environmental health and health promotion activities, tested in the See, Treat, Prevent (SToP skin sores and scabies) trial.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

SToP will evaluate a skin control programme using a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial design with three intervention components (the 'SToP activities'): (1) seeing skin infections (development of training resources implemented within a community dermatology model); (2) treating skin infections (employing the latest evidence for impetigo, and scabies treatment); and (3) preventing skin infections (embedded, culturally informed health promotion and environmental health activities). Four community clusters in the remote Kimberley region of Western Australia will participate. Following baseline data collection, two clusters will be randomly allocated to the SToP activities. At 12 months, the remaining two clusters will transition to the SToP activities. The primary outcome is the diagnosis of impetigo in children (5-9 years) at school-based surveillance. Secondary outcome measures include scabies diagnosis, other child health indicators, resistance to cotrimoxazole in circulating pathogenic bacteria, determining the economic burden of skin disease and evaluating the cost effectiveness of SToP activities.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol was approved by the health ethics review committees at the Child and Adolescent Health Service (Approval number RGS0000000584), the Western Australian Aboriginal Health Ethics Committee (Reference number: 819) and the University of Western Australia (Reference RA/4/20/4123). Study findings will be shared with community members, academic and medical communities via publications and presentations, and in reports to funders. Authorship for all publications based on this study will be determined in line with the Uniform Requirements for Manuscripts Submitted to Biomedical Journals published by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors. Sharing results with organisations and communities who contributed to the study is paramount. The results of the SToP trial will be shared with participants in a suitable format, such as a single summary page provided to participants or presentations to communities, the Kimberly Aboriginal Health Planning Forum Research Subcommittee and other stakeholders as appropriate and as requested. Communication and dissemination will require ongoing consultation with Aboriginal communities to determine appropriate formats.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12618000520235.

Value of Xenografts in the Investigation of Prostatic Function: Preliminary Communication

Two of 33 prostatic tumour xenografts were established and passaged. Testosterone supplementation did not improve tumour take rates. The histological grade of the parent tumour was the principal factor affecting xenograft survival. Preliminary studies on established tumour xenografts suggest that their value lies in the study of tumour biology, and that they have no direct therapeutic application at present.

Neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza: a systematic review and meta-analysis of regulatory and mortality data

BACKGROUND

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs) are stockpiled and recommended by public health agencies for treating and preventing seasonal and pandemic influenza. They are used clinically worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To (1) describe the potential benefits and harms of NIs for influenza in all age groups by reviewing all clinical study reports (CSRs) of published and unpublished randomised, placebo-controlled trials and regulatory comments; and (2) determine the effect of oseltamivir (Tamiflu(®), Roche) treatment on mortality in patients with 2009A/H1N1 influenza.

METHODS

We searched trial registries, electronic databases and corresponded with regulators and sponsors to identify randomised trials of NIs. We requested full CSRs and accessed regulators' comments. We included only those trials for which we had CSRs. To examine the effects of oseltamivir on 2009A/H1N1 influenza mortality, we requested individual patient data (IPD) from corresponding authors of all included observational studies.

RESULTS

Effect of oseltamivir and zanamivir (Relenza®, GlaxoSmithKline) in the prevention and treatment of influenza: Oseltamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults by 16.8 hours [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.4 to 25.1 hours]. Zanamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults by 0.60 days (95% CI 0.39 to 0.81 days). Oseltamivir reduced unverified pneumonia in adult treatment [risk difference (RD) 1.00%, 95% CI 0.22% to 1.49%]; similar findings were observed with zanamivir prophylaxis in adults (RD 0.32%, 95% CI 0.09% to 0.41%). Oseltamivir treatment of adults increased the risk of nausea (RD 3.66%, 95% CI 0.90% to 7.39%) and vomiting (RD 4.56%, 95% CI 2.39% to 7.58%). In the treatment of children, oseltamivir induced vomiting (RD 5.34%, 95% CI 1.75% to 10.29%). Both oseltamivir and zanamivir prophylaxis reduced the risk of symptomatic influenza in individuals (oseltamivir RD 3.05%, 95% CI 1.83% to 3.88%; zanamivir RD 1.98%, 95% CI 0.98% to 2.54%) and in households (oseltamivir RD 13.6%, 95% CI 9.52% to 15.47%; zanamivir RD 14.84%, 95% CI 12.18% to 16.55%). Oseltamivir increased psychiatric adverse events in the combined on- and off-treatment periods (RD 1.06%, 95% CI 0.07% to 2.76%) and the risk of headaches while on treatment (RD 3.15%, 95% CI 0.88% to 5.78%). Effect of oseltamivir on mortality in patients with 2009A/H1N1 influenza: Analysis of summary data of 30 studies as well as IPD of four studies showed evidence of time-dependent bias. After adjusting for time-dependent bias and potential confounding variables, competing risks analysis of the IPD showed insufficient evidence that oseltamivir reduced the risk of mortality (hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Oseltamivir and zanamivir cause small reductions in the time to first alleviation of influenza symptoms in adults. The use of oseltamivir increases the risk of nausea, vomiting, psychiatric events in adults and vomiting in children. Oseltamivir has no protective effect on mortality among patients with 2009A/H1N1 influenza. Prophylaxis with either NI may reduce symptomatic influenza in individuals and in households. The balance between benefits and harms should be considered when making decisions about use of NIs for either prophylaxis or treatment of influenza.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002245.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Effects of Assault Type on Cognitive Behaviour Therapy for Coexisting Depression and Alcohol Misuse

Although assault exposure is common in mental health and substance misusing populations, screening for assaults in treatment settings is frequently overlooked. This secondary analysis explored the effects of past sexual (SA) and physical (PA) assault on depression, alcohol misuse, global functioning and attrition in the Depression and Alcohol Integrated and Single focussed Intervention (DAISI) project, whose participants (N = 278) received cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for their depression and/or alcohol misuse. Of the 278 DAISI participants, 220 consented to screening for past assault (either by a stranger or non-stranger) at baseline. Depression, alcohol, and global functioning assessments were administered at baseline and 3, 12, 24, and 36 months post baseline. A between-group analysis was used to assess differences between SA and No SA, and PA and No PA groupings, on adjusted mean treatment outcomes across all assessment periods. SA and PA participants had similar mean symptom reductions compared to No SA and No PA participants except for lower depression and global functioning change scores at the 12-month follow-up. People with coexisting depression and alcohol misuse reporting SA or PA can respond well to CBT for depression and alcohol misuse. However, follow-up is recommended in order to monitor fluctuations in outcomes.

Protective effect of hormone therapy among women with hysterectomy/oophorectomy

Study question

Does exposure to menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) in mid-aged women alter their risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and all-cause mortality?

Summary answer

MHT soon after menopause is unlikely to increase the risk of CVD mortality or all-cause mortality and may have a protective effect for women with hysterectomy/oophorectomy.

What is known already

The balance of benefits and risks of MHT are currently unclear and may differ according to when treatment starts and whether women have an intact uterus.

Study design size, duration

A total of 13 715 participants from the mid-aged population-based cohort (born 1946-1951) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were followed from 1998 to 2013.

Participants/materials setting methods

The measures included cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, exposure to MHT and menopausal status (based on 3-yearly self-reports). Electronic prescriptions data on MHT were also available from mid-2002 onwards. At each follow-up survey wave, participants were classified as: an existing user of MHT, an initiator of MHT or a non-initiator of MHT.

Main results and the role of chance

After adjusting for confounding variables, existing users of MHT had a reduced risk (hazard ratio 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.92) of CVD mortality compared with non-initiators. Insufficient evidence of an association was identified for initiators of MHT (0.66; 0.35-1.24). For all-cause mortality, risks were reduced for both initiators (0.69; 0.55-0.87) and existing users (0.80; 0.70-0.91). In a subgroup analysis, women with hysterectomy/oophorectomy had lower risks of CVD mortality for both initiators (0.14; 0.02-0.98) and existing users (0.55; 0.34-0.90), but no evidence of an association was found for women whose MHT commenced during or after menopause. Similarly for all-cause mortality, only the women with hysterectomy/oophorectomy had lower risks for both initiators (0.47; 0.31-0.70) and existing users (0.69; 0.58-0.82).

Limitations, reasons for caution

Limitations include the observational nature of the study, the small number of deaths, MHT use being self-reported and the classification of menopausal status also being based on self-reported information.

Wider implications of the findings

Women considering MHT soon after menopause can be reassured that the treatment is unlikely to increase their risk of CVD mortality or all-cause mortality.

Study funding/competing interest(s)

The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is funded by the Australian Department of Health. G.D.M. is funded by the Australian Research Council Future Fellowship. L.C. was funded by a China scholarship council (CSC) graduate scholarship. All authors report no conflict of interest.

Trial registration number

N/A.

Population-based cohort study of variation in the use of emergency cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background

The aims of this prospective population-based cohort study were to identify the patient and hospital characteristics associated with emergency cholecystectomy, and the influences of these in determining variations between hospitals.

Methods

Data were collected for consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing the performance of emergency cholecystectomy were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2).

Results

Data were collected on 4744 cholecystectomies from 165 hospitals. Increasing age, lower ASA fitness grade, biliary colic, the need for further imaging (magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography), endoscopic interventions (endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography) and admission to a non-biliary centre significantly reduced the likelihood of an emergency cholecystectomy being performed. The multilevel model was used to calculate the probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy for a woman aged 40 years or over with an ASA grade of I or II and a BMI of at least 25·0 kg/m2, who presented with acute cholecystitis with an ultrasound scan showing a thick-walled gallbladder and a normal common bile duct. The mean predicted probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy was 0·52 (95 per cent c.i. 0·45 to 0·57). The predicted probabilities ranged from 0·02 to 0·95 across the 165 hospitals, demonstrating significant variation between hospitals.

Conclusion

Patients with similar characteristics presenting to different hospitals with acute gallbladder pathology do not receive comparable care.

The genomic architecture of resistance to Campylobacter jejuni intestinal colonisation in chickens

BACKGROUND

Campylobacter is the leading cause of foodborne diarrhoeal illness in humans and is mostly acquired from consumption or handling of contaminated poultry meat. In the absence of effective licensed vaccines and inhibitors, selection for chickens with increased resistance to Campylobacter could potentially reduce its subsequent entry into the food chain. Campylobacter intestinal colonisation levels are influenced by the host genetics of the chicken. In the present study, two chicken populations were used to investigate the genetic architecture of avian resistance to colonisation: (i) a back-cross of two White Leghorn derived inbred lines [(61 x N) x N] known to differ in resistance to Campylobacter colonisation and (ii) a 9(th) generation advanced intercross (61 x N) line.

RESULTS

The level of colonisation with Campylobacter jejuni following experimental infection was found to be a quantitative trait. A back-cross experiment using 1,243 fully informative single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers revealed quantitative trait loci (QTL) on chromosomes 7, 11 and 14. In the advanced intercross line study, the location of the QTL on chromosome 14 was confirmed and refined and two new QTLs were identified located on chromosomes 4 and 16. Pathway and re-sequencing data analysis of the genes located in the QTL candidate regions identified potential pathways, networks and candidate resistance genes. Finally, gene expression analyses were performed for some of the candidate resistance genes to support the results.

CONCLUSION

Campylobacter resistance in chickens is a complex trait, possibly involving the Major Histocompatibility Complex, innate and adaptive immune responses, cadherins and other factors. Two of the QTLs for Campylobacter resistance are co-located with Salmonella resistance loci, indicating that it may be possible to breed simultaneously for enhanced resistance to both zoonoses.

Genome-wide SNP analysis identifies major QTL for Salmonella colonization in the chicken

Salmonella-infected poultry products are a major source of human Salmonella infection. The prophylactic use of antimicrobials in poultry production was recently banned in the EU, increasing the need for alternative methods to control Salmonella infections in poultry flocks. Genetic selection of chickens more resistant to Salmonella colonization provides an attractive means of sustainably controlling the pathogen in commercial poultry flocks and its subsequent entry into the food chain. Analysis of different inbred chickens has shown that individual lines are consistently either susceptible or resistant to the many serovars of Salmonella that have been tested. In this study, two inbred chicken lines with differential susceptibility to Salmonella colonization (61 ((R)) and N((S)) ) were used in a backcross experimental design. Unlike previous studies that used a candidate gene approach or low-density genome-wide screens, we have exploited a high-density marker set of 1255 SNPs covering the whole genome to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL). Analysis of log-transformed caecal bacterial levels between the parental lines revealed a significant difference at 1, 2, 3 and 4 days post-infection (P < 0.05). Analysis of the genotypes of the backcross (F1  × N) population (n = 288) revealed four QTL on chromosomes 2, 3, 12 and 25 for the two traits examined in this study: log-transformed bacterial counts in the caeca and presence of a hardened caseous caecal core. These included one genome-wide significant QTL on chromosome 2 at 20 Mb and three additional QTL, on chromosomes 3, 12 and 25 at 96, 15 and 1 Mb, respectively, which were significant at the chromosome-wide level (P < 0.05). The results generated in this study will inform future breeding strategies to control these pathogens in commercial poultry flocks.

Patient-reported outcomes after discontinuation of long-term topical corticosteroid treatment for atopic dermatitis: a targeted cross-sectional survey

Background

Topical corticosteroid (TCS) treatment is widely prescribed for atopic dermatitis (AD). However, TCS treatment is associated with tachyphylaxis, and discontinuation after long-term use may cause exacerbation of symptoms. Some AD patients are reluctant to use TCS.

Objective

To evaluate patient-reported short- and long-term outcomes after discontinuation of TCS treatment for AD.

Methods

Questionnaires were distributed to adult AD patients (n=1,812) of doctors who did not recommend TCS as first-line therapy for patients who preferred to avoid TCS. Data collected included current TCS use, duration of TCS use, past discontinuation of TCS use, exacerbation of symptoms after discontinuation of TCS use, and limitations to daily activities because of AD.

Results

Of 918 respondents, 97.7% had used TCS, of whom 92.3% had experienced discontinuation of TCS use. After discontinuation, 63.9% experienced their most severe AD symptoms ever. The severity of exacerbation of symptoms was significantly correlated with the length of TCS use (P<0.001). Although most respondents who experienced severe exacerbation after TCS discontinuation were not current TCS users, they generally had fewer current limitations to activities than when AD symptoms were at their worst.

Conclusion

Adult Japanese AD patients who experience severe exacerbation of symptoms immediately after discontinuation of TCS use generally improve over time. We suggest caution regarding long-term TCS treatment in AD patients.

Risk of bias in industry-funded oseltamivir trials: comparison of core reports versus full clinical study reports

BACKGROUND

The Cochrane risk of bias tool is a prominent instrument used to evaluate potential biases in clinical trials. In three updates of our Cochrane review on neuraminidase inhibitors, we assessed risk of bias on the same trials using different levels of detail: the trials in journal publications, in core reports, and in full clinical study reports. Here we analyse whether progressively greater amounts of information and detail in full clinical study reports (including trial protocols, statistical analysis plans, certificates of analyses, individual participant data listings and randomisation lists) affected our risk of bias assessments.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used the Cochrane risk of bias tool to assess and compare risk of bias in 14 oseltamivir trials (reported in 10 clinical study reports) obtained from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the manufacturer, Roche. With more detailed information, reported in clinical study reports, no previous assessment of 'high' risk of bias was reclassified as 'low' or 'unclear' in the main analysis, and over half (55%, 34/62) of the previous assessments of 'low' risk of bias were reclassified as 'high'. Most assessments of 'unclear' risk of bias (67%, or 28/42) were reclassified as 'high' risk of bias when our judgements were based on full clinical study reports. The limits of our study were our relative inexperience in dealing with large information sets, sometimes subjective bias judgements and focus on industry trials. Comparison with journal publications was not possible because of the low number of trials published.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that as information increased in the document, this increased our assessment of bias. This may mean that risk of bias has been insufficiently assessed in Cochrane reviews based on journal publications.

Campylobacter jejuni gene cj0511 encodes a serine peptidase essential for colonisation

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A novel peptidase Cj0511 in an important human bacterial pathogen Campylobacter jejuni has been characterized.

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Proteolytic properties of Cj0511 protein were detected in whole cell lysates using zymography.

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Enzymatic studies conducted with a purified protein confirmed the prediction of a serine peptidase.

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The cj0511 mutant was severely attenuated in a chicken colonisation model, suggesting a role in infection.

According to MEROPS peptidase database, Campylobacter species encode 64 predicted peptidases. However, proteolytic properties of only a few of these proteins have been confirmed experimentally. In this study we identified and characterised a Campylobacter jejuni gene cj0511 encoding a novel peptidase. The proteolytic activity associated with this enzyme was demonstrated in cell lysates. Moreover, enzymatic studies conducted with a purified protein confirmed a prediction of it being a serine peptidase. Furthermore, cj0511 mutant was found to be severely attenuated in chicken colonisation model, suggesting a role of the Cj0511 protein in infection.

Neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing and treating influenza in adults and children

BACKGROUND

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs) are stockpiled and recommended by public health agencies for treating and preventing seasonal and pandemic influenza. They are used clinically worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the potential benefits and harms of NIs for influenza in all age groups by reviewing all clinical study reports of published and unpublished randomised, placebo-controlled trials and regulatory comments.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched trial registries, electronic databases (to 22 July 2013) and regulatory archives, and corresponded with manufacturers to identify all trials. We also requested clinical study reports. We focused on the primary data sources of manufacturers but we checked that there were no published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from non-manufacturer sources by running electronic searches in the following databases: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Embase.com, PubMed (not MEDLINE), the Database of Reviews of Effects, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Economic Evaluations Database.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised, placebo-controlled trials on adults and children with confirmed or suspected exposure to naturally occurring influenza.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We extracted clinical study reports and assessed risk of bias using purpose-built instruments. We analysed the effects of zanamivir and oseltamivir on time to first alleviation of symptoms, influenza outcomes, complications, hospitalisations and adverse events in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. All trials were sponsored by the manufacturers.

MAIN RESULTS

We obtained 107 clinical study reports from the European Medicines Agency (EMA), GlaxoSmithKline and Roche. We accessed comments by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), EMA and Japanese regulator. We included 53 trials in Stage 1 (a judgement of appropriate study design) and 46 in Stage 2 (formal analysis), including 20 oseltamivir (9623 participants) and 26 zanamivir trials (14,628 participants). Inadequate reporting put most of the zanamivir studies and half of the oseltamivir studies at a high risk of selection bias. There were inadequate measures in place to protect 11 studies of oseltamivir from performance bias due to non-identical presentation of placebo. Attrition bias was high across the oseltamivir studies and there was also evidence of selective reporting for both the zanamivir and oseltamivir studies. The placebo interventions in both sets of trials may have contained active substances. Time to first symptom alleviation. For the treatment of adults, oseltamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms by 16.8 hours (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.4 to 25.1 hours, P < 0.0001). This represents a reduction in the time to first alleviation of symptoms from 7 to 6.3 days. There was no effect in asthmatic children, but in otherwise healthy children there was (reduction by a mean difference of 29 hours, 95% CI 12 to 47 hours, P = 0.001). Zanamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults by 0.60 days (95% CI 0.39 to 0.81 days, P < 0.00001), equating to a reduction in the mean duration of symptoms from 6.6 to 6.0 days. The effect in children was not significant. In subgroup analysis we found no evidence of a difference in treatment effect for zanamivir on time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults in the influenza-infected and non-influenza-infected subgroups (P = 0.53). Hospitalisations. Treatment of adults with oseltamivir had no significant effect on hospitalisations: risk difference (RD) 0.15% (95% CI -0.78 to 0.91). There was also no significant effect in children or in prophylaxis. Zanamivir hospitalisation data were unreported. Serious influenza complications or those leading to study withdrawal. In adult treatment trials, oseltamivir did not significantly reduce those complications classified as serious or those which led to study withdrawal (RD 0.07%, 95% CI -0.78 to 0.44), nor in child treatment trials; neither did zanamivir in the treatment of adults or in prophylaxis. There were insufficient events to compare this outcome for oseltamivir in prophylaxis or zanamivir in the treatment of children. Pneumonia. Oseltamivir significantly reduced self reported, investigator-mediated, unverified pneumonia (RD 1.00%, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.49); number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) = 100 (95% CI 67 to 451) in the treated population. The effect was not significant in the five trials that used a more detailed diagnostic form for pneumonia. There were no definitions of pneumonia (or other complications) in any trial. No oseltamivir treatment studies reported effects on radiologically confirmed pneumonia. There was no significant effect on unverified pneumonia in children. There was no significant effect of zanamivir on either self reported or radiologically confirmed pneumonia. In prophylaxis, zanamivir significantly reduced the risk of self reported, investigator-mediated, unverified pneumonia in adults (RD 0.32%, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.41); NNTB = 311 (95% CI 244 to 1086), but not oseltamivir. Bronchitis, sinusitis and otitis media. Zanamivir significantly reduced the risk of bronchitis in adult treatment trials (RD 1.80%, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.80); NNTB = 56 (36 to 155), but not oseltamivir. Neither NI significantly reduced the risk of otitis media and sinusitis in both adults and children. Harms of treatment. Oseltamivir in the treatment of adults increased the risk of nausea (RD 3.66%, 95% CI 0.90 to 7.39); number needed to treat to harm (NNTH) = 28 (95% CI 14 to 112) and vomiting (RD 4.56%, 95% CI 2.39 to 7.58); NNTH = 22 (14 to 42). The proportion of participants with four-fold increases in antibody titre was significantly lower in the treated group compared to the control group (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.97, I(2) statistic = 0%) (5% absolute difference between arms). Oseltamivir significantly decreased the risk of diarrhoea (RD 2.33%, 95% CI 0.14 to 3.81); NNTB = 43 (95% CI 27 to 709) and cardiac events (RD 0.68%, 95% CI 0.04 to 1.0); NNTB = 148 (101 to 2509) compared to placebo during the on-treatment period. There was a dose-response effect on psychiatric events in the two oseltamivir "pivotal" treatment trials, WV15670 and WV15671, at 150 mg (standard dose) and 300 mg daily (high dose) (P = 0.038). In the treatment of children, oseltamivir induced vomiting (RD 5.34%, 95% CI 1.75 to 10.29); NNTH = 19 (95% CI 10 to 57). There was a significantly lower proportion of children on oseltamivir with a four-fold increase in antibodies (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.00, I(2) = 0%). Prophylaxis. In prophylaxis trials, oseltamivir and zanamivir reduced the risk of symptomatic influenza in individuals (oseltamivir: RD 3.05% (95% CI 1.83 to 3.88); NNTB = 33 (26 to 55); zanamivir: RD 1.98% (95% CI 0.98 to 2.54); NNTB = 51 (40 to 103)) and in households (oseltamivir: RD 13.6% (95% CI 9.52 to 15.47); NNTB = 7 (6 to 11); zanamivir: RD 14.84% (95% CI 12.18 to 16.55); NNTB = 7 (7 to 9)). There was no significant effect on asymptomatic influenza (oseltamivir: RR 1.14 (95% CI 0.39 to 3.33); zanamivir: RR 0.97 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.24)). Non-influenza, influenza-like illness could not be assessed due to data not being fully reported. In oseltamivir prophylaxis studies, psychiatric adverse events were increased in the combined on- and off-treatment periods (RD 1.06%, 95% CI 0.07 to 2.76); NNTH = 94 (95% CI 36 to 1538) in the study treatment population. Oseltamivir increased the risk of headaches whilst on treatment (RD 3.15%, 95% CI 0.88 to 5.78); NNTH = 32 (95% CI 18 to 115), renal events whilst on treatment (RD 0.67%, 95% CI -2.93 to 0.01); NNTH = 150 (NNTH 35 to NNTB > 1000) and nausea whilst on treatment (RD 4.15%, 95% CI 0.86 to 9.51); NNTH = 25 (95% CI 11 to 116).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Oseltamivir and zanamivir have small, non-specific effects on reducing the time to alleviation of influenza symptoms in adults, but not in asthmatic children. Using either drug as prophylaxis reduces the risk of developing symptomatic influenza. Treatment trials with oseltamivir or zanamivir do not settle the question of whether the complications of influenza (such as pneumonia) are reduced, because of a lack of diagnostic definitions. The use of oseltamivir increases the risk of adverse effects, such as nausea, vomiting, psychiatric effects and renal events in adults and vomiting in children. The lower bioavailability may explain the lower toxicity of zanamivir compared to oseltamivir. The balance between benefits and harms should be considered when making decisions about use of both NIs for either the prophylaxis or treatment of influenza. The influenza virus-specific mechanism of action proposed by the producers does not fit the clinical evidence.

Post-exposure passive immunisation for preventing measles

BACKGROUND

Measles outbreaks continue to occur in countries with high vaccination coverage. Passive immunisation is generally considered to prevent measles in someone who is not immune and has been exposed to infection. Estimates of effectiveness have varied and no minimum effective dose has been determined.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of intramuscular injection or intravenous infusion of immunoglobulins (passive immunisation) for preventing measles when administered to exposed susceptible people before the onset of symptoms.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL (2013, Issue 7), MEDLINE (1946 to July week 5, 2013), CINAHL (1981 to August 2013) and EMBASE (1974 to August 2013).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs and prospective, controlled (cohort) studies if: participants were susceptible and exposed to measles, polyclonal immunoglobulins derived from human sera or plasma were administered intramuscularly or intravenously as the only intervention in at least one group and the number of subsequent measles cases was measured. We excluded studies of other sources of immunoglobulins.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently extracted data and critically appraised the included studies. We attempted to contact study authors for missing information. We described the results of studies not included in meta-analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We included one RCT, two quasi-RCTs and 10 cohort studies (3925 participants). No studies were rated as low risk of bias for all criteria. Critical appraisal was constrained by a lack of information in most studies. The overall quality of the evidence was moderate.Seven studies (1432 participants) assessed cases of measles after immunoglobulin versus no treatment. Heterogeneity was explained by subgrouping according to the blood product used as an approximation of dose of immunoglobulin. When given within seven days of exposure, immunoglobulins were effective at preventing measles: gamma globulin (risk ratio (RR) 0.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08 to 0.36), convalescent serum (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.29 to RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.54) and adult serum (RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.59). The differences in the effectiveness of different blood products were supported by studies not included in the meta-analysis and by two studies (702 participants) that found gamma globulin more effective than serum (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69).Based on three studies (893 participants) immunoglobulin was effective at preventing death due to measles compared to no treatment (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.44).Two studies included measles vaccine alone among the intervention groups. Meta-analysis could not be undertaken. Both studies suggested the vaccine was more effective than gamma globulin.No serious adverse events were observed in any of the included studies, although reporting of adverse events was poor overall. Non-serious adverse events included transient fever, rash, muscle stiffness, local redness and induration.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Passive immunisation within seven days of exposure is effective at preventing measles, with the risk for non-immune people up to 83% less than if no treatment is given. Given an attack rate of 45 per 1000 (per the control group of the most recent included study), gamma globulin compared to no treatment has an absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 37 per 1000 and a number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) of 27. Given an attack rate of 759 per 1000 (per the attack rate of the other included study assessing gamma globulin), the ARR of gamma globulin compared to no treatment is 629 and the NNTB is two.It seems the dose of immunoglobulin administered impacts on effectiveness. A minimum effective dose of measles-specific antibodies could not be identified.Passive immunisation is effective at preventing deaths from measles, reducing the risk by 76% compared to no treatment. Whether the benefits of passive immunisation vary among subgroups of non-immune exposed people could not be determined.Due to a paucity of evidence comparing vaccine to passive immunisation, no firm conclusions can be drawn regarding relative effectiveness.The included studies were not specifically designed to detect adverse events.Future research should consider the effectiveness of passive immunisation for preventing measles in high-risk populations such as pregnant women, immunocompromised people and infants. Further efforts should be made to determine the minimum effective dose of measles-specific antibodies for post-exposure prophylaxis and the relative effectiveness of vaccine compared to immunoglobulin.

The effects of Mary Rose conservation treatment on iron oxidation processes and microbial communities contributing to acid production in marine archaeological timbers

The Tudor warship the Mary Rose has reached an important transition point in her conservation. The 19 year long process of spraying with polyethylene glycol (PEG) has been completed (April 29^th 2013) and the hull is air drying under tightly controlled conditions. Acidophilic bacteria capable of oxidising iron and sulfur have been previously identified and enriched from unpreserved timbers of the Mary Rose, demonstrating that biological pathways of iron and sulfur oxidization existed potentially in this wood, before preservation with PEG. This study was designed to establish if the recycled PEG spray system was a reservoir of microorganisms capable of iron and sulfur oxidization during preservation of the Mary Rose. Microbial enrichments derived from PEG impregnated biofilm collected from underneath the Mary Rose hull, were examined to better understand the processes of cycling of iron. X-ray absorption spectroscopy was utilised to demonstrate the biological contribution to production of sulfuric acid in the wood. Using molecular microbiological techniques to examine these enrichment cultures, PEG was found to mediate a shift in the microbial community from a co-culture of Stenotrophomonas and Brevunidimonas sp, to a co-culture of Stenotrophomonas and the iron oxidising Alicyclobacillus sp. Evidence is presented that PEG is not an inert substance in relation to the redox cycling of iron. This is the first demonstration that solutions of PEG used in the conservation of the Mary Rose are promoting the oxidation of ferrous iron in acidic solutions, in which spontaneous abiotic oxidation does not occur in water. Critically, these results suggest PEG mediated redox cycling of iron between valence states in solutions of 75% PEG 200 and 50% PEG 2000 (v/v) at pH 3.0, with serious implications for the future use of PEG as a conservation material of iron rich wooden archaeological artefacts.