IL-6-based mortality risk model for hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly become a global pandemic. Because the severity of the disease is highly variable, predictive models to stratify patients according to their mortality risk are needed.

Objective

Our aim was to develop a model able to predict the risk of fatal outcome in patients with COVID-19 that could be used easily at the time of patients' arrival at the hospital.

Methods

We constructed a prospective cohort with 611 adult patients in whom COVID-19 was diagnosed between March 10 and April 12, 2020, in a tertiary hospital in Madrid, Spain. The analysis included 501 patients who had been discharged or had died by April 20, 2020. The capacity of several biomarkers, measured at the beginning of hospitalization, to predict mortality was assessed individually. Those biomarkers that independently contributed to improve mortality prediction were included in a multivariable risk model.

Results

High IL-6 level, C-reactive protein level, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, ferritin level, d-dimer level, neutrophil count, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were all predictive of mortality (area under the curve >0.70), as were low albumin level, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, and ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO₂/FiO₂). A multivariable mortality risk model including the SpO₂/FiO₂ ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, LDH level, IL-6 level, and age was developed and showed high accuracy for the prediction of fatal outcome (area under the curve 0.94). The optimal cutoff reliably classified patients (including patients with no initial respiratory distress) as survivors and nonsurvivors with 0.88 sensitivity and 0.89 specificity.

Conclusion

This mortality risk model allows early risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 before the appearance of obvious signs of clinical deterioration, and it can be used as a tool to guide clinical decision making.

Prevalence by sex of preclinical carotid atherosclerosis in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is clinical trial evidence that only early, intensive risk factor control can reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in type 2 diabetes (T2DM). However, there is little information regarding preclinical atherosclerosis at diabetes diagnosis. We assessed carotid atherosclerosis in new-onset T2DM and control individuals without prior CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a cross-sectional case-control study, we determined intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque (IMT ≥1.5 mm) by ultrasound at all carotid sites in new-onset T2DM patients and controls. We assessed 106 T2DM patients, median age 62 years, 46% women, 19% smokers, 54% with hypertension, and 41% with dyslipidemia and 99 non-diabetic subjects matched by age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors. Compared to controls, T2DM patients had higher common carotid artery (CCA)-IMT (median 0.725 vs. 0.801 mm, p = 0.01), bulb-IMT (0.976 vs. 1.028 mm, p = 0.12), and internal carotid artery (ICA)-IMT (0.727 vs. 0.802 mm, p = 0.04). The prevalence of total plaque (60% vs. 72%, p = 0.06), ICA plaque (20% vs. 42%, p < 0.01), and harboring ≥3 plaques (16% vs. 35% p < 0.01) was also higher in T2DM. Plaque score (sum of maximum plaque heights) was also higher (p < 0.01) in T2DM. Diabetic women showed more advanced carotid atherosclerosis than diabetic men when they were compared with their respective non-diabetic counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high prevalence of preclinical atherosclerosis (carotid plaque presence and burden) in new-onset T2DM subjects, especially in women. Early, still reversible, preclinical atherosclerosis may explain in part why early intervention is effective to prevent CVD in this patient population.

Epidemiological study of Clostridium difficile infection in critical patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

Data on the epidemiology of infections caused by Clostridium difficile (CDI) in critically ill patients are scarce and center on studies with a limited time framework and/or epidemic outbreaks.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the characteristics and risk factors of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU with CDI, as well as the treatments used for the control of such infections.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective study was made of patients included in the ENVIN-ICU registry with CDI in 2012. Patients were followed up to 72 h after discharge from the ICU. A case report form was used to record the following data: demographic variables, risk factors related to CDI, treatment and outcome. Infections were classified as community-acquired, nosocomial out-ICU and nosocomial in-ICU, according to the day on which Clostridium difficile isolates were obtained. Infection rates as episodes per 10,000 days of ICU stay are presented. The global in-ICU and hospital mortality rates were calculated.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight episodes of CDI in 33 out of a total of 173 ICUs participating in the registry were recorded (19.1%) (2.1 episodes per 10,000 days of ICU stay). Forty-five patients were men (66.2%), with a mean (SD) age of 63.4 (16.4) years, a mean APACHE II score on ICU admission of 19.9 (7.4), and an underlying medical condition in 44 (64.7%). Sixty-two patients (91.2%) presented more than 3 liquid depositions/day, 40 (58.8%) in association with severe sepsis or septic shock. Community-acquired infection occurred in 13 patients (19.1%), nosocomial out-ICU infection in 13 (19.1%), and in-ICU infection in 42 (61.8%). Risk factors included age>64 years in 39 cases (57.4%), previous hospital admission (3 months) in 32 (45.6%), use of antimicrobials (previous 7 days) in 57 (83.8%), enteral nutrition in 23 (33.8%), and the use of H2 inhibitors in 39 (57.4%). Initial combined treatment was administered to 18 patients (26.5%). Metronidazole was used in 60 (88.2%) and vancomycin in 31 (45.6%). The in-ICU mortality rate was 25.0% (n=17), with a hospital mortality 27.9% (n=19).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of ICD in ICU patients is low, the infection affects severely ill patients, and is associated with high mortality. The presence of CDI is a marker of poor prognosis.

Functional MRI during the execution of a motor task in patients with multiple sclerosis and fatigue

PURPOSE

This study was undertaken to assess cortical activation during execution of a motor task in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and fatigue.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We enrolled 24 right-handed patients affected by relapsing-remitting MS and mild disability (12 with and 12 without fatigue) and 15 healthy volunteers. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination (1.5 T) was performed with conventional sequences and an echoplanar imaging (EPI) sequence for functional MRI (fMRI). The motor task consisted of sequential finger tapping performed with the right hand. Statistical maps of motor activation were obtained. Comparison between the two subgroups of patients and between patients and controls was performed with analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical analysis (p<0.05).

RESULTS

Compared with controls, patients without fatigue showed greater activation of the primary sensorimotor cortex bilaterally, of the right supplementary motor cortex, of the left premotor cortex, of the left cerebellum and of the superior parietal lobule bilaterally. Compared with patients without fatigue, patients with fatigue demonstrated greater activation of the right premotor area, of the putamen and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with fatigue have greater activation of the motor-attentional network when performing a simple motor task.

A prospective comparison of galactomannan in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid for the diagnosis of pulmonary invasive aspergillosis in medical patients under intensive care: comparison with the diagnostic performance of galactomannan and of (1→ 3)-β-d-glucan chromogenic assay in serum samples

Diagnosis of fungal pneumonia (FP) in critically ill patients is challenging. Circulating biomarkers for the diagnosis of FP have limitations and the combination of different assays in serum samples and directly from the target organ may further improve the diagnosis of FP. We prospectively assessed the diagnostic utility of paired galactomannan (GM) in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) and serum GM and (1→3)-β-D-glucan (BG) assays in critically ill patients at risk of FP. Patients with FP were classified according to European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer-Mycoses Study Group criteria, with modifications. Out of 847 admissions, 51 patients were eligible. There were nine invasive aspergillosis (IA) cases (four proven, five probable), three proven Pneumocysitis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP) cases and one mixed FP case (probable IA and proven PJP). The diagnostic accuracy as given by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in IA cases (proven and probable) for GM in BAL was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94-1.00), whilst for GM and BG in serum it was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74-0.96) and 0.815 (95% CI, 0.66-0.96), respectively. For IA cases (proven and probable) AUC for GM in BAL was significantly higher than GM and BG in serum (p 0.025 and p 0.032, respectively). In one of four proven and one of six probable IA cases, GM in serum remained negative, whereas GM in BAL was positive. In patients with IA, GM (90%) and BG (80%) appeared a mean of 4.3 days (range, 1-10 days) before Aspergillus was cultured. GM detection in BAL appears to improve the diagnosis of IA in critical patients.

I nterferon beta-1a slows progression of brain atrophy in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis predominantly by reducing gray matter atrophy

Background Brain atrophy, as assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), has been correlated with disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Recent evidence indicates that both white matter (WM) and gray matter (GM) are subject to atrophy in patients with MS. Although neurological deficiencies in MS are primarily due to loss of WM, the clinical significance of GM atrophy has not been fully explored in MS.

Methods We have undertaken a three-year, open-label study, comparing 26 patients who elected to receive intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IFN β-1a) therapy, with 28 patients who elected not to receive therapy. Both groups had quantitative cranial MRI scans at study entry and after three years, and standardized clinical assessments every six months. Brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), GM fraction (GMF), and WM fraction (WMF) percent changes were calculated, and T2- and T1-lesion volumes (LVs) assessed.

Results After three years, mean percent (%) change in BPF favored the IFN β-1a treatment group (IFN β-1a —1.3% versus the control group —2.5%, P=0.009), as did the mean percent change in GMF (+0.2 versus —1.4%, P=0.014), and the mean percent change in T1-LV (—9.3 versus +91.6%, P=0.011). At the end of the study, there was a significant within-patient decrease in BPF for both groups (P=0.02 for the IFN β-1a treatment group, and P<0.001 for the control group), a significant within-patient decrease in WMF for the IFN β-1a treatment group (P=0.01), and a significant decrease in GMF for the control group (P=0.013) when compared with baseline.

Conclusion Over a three-year period, treatment with IFN β-1a significantly slowed the progression of whole-brain and GM atrophy, and of T1-hypointense LV accumulation, when compared with the control group. Multiple Sclerosis 2007; 13: 490-501. http://msj.sagepub.com

Nontraumatic headache in the Emergency Department: a survey in the province of Trieste

The objective was to study the demographics, diagnostic procedures and therapies employed in order to provide guidelines to Emergency Department (ED) physicians. A six–month retrospective analysis of the records of all patients presenting with nontraumatic headache (NTH) to the EDs of the Province of Trieste was performed. Of 38,238 patients screened, 300 (0.8%) presented with NTH and 49.7% were referred to specialists. Patients were classified as having secondary headache (41.3%), primary headache (24.3%) and headache with no obvious source (NOS) (34.4%). One hundred and seventy patients were treated with mono– or polytherapy. Of 50 patients with migraine, 36 were treated with NSAIDs and 4 with triptans. 68.4% of patients were referred to a general practitioner and 31.6% were admitted. The frequency of NTH was lower than in other studies. NOS headache was frequent. Only 10% of migraineurs received triptans. Diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines for ED physicians are needed.

Eighteen-year follow up after Hancock II bioprosthesis insertion

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY

The long-term (18 years) results after aortic (AVR), mitral (MVR) and double (aortic/mitral, DVR) valve replacement with Hancock II bioprosthesis were investigated.

METHODS

Between 1978 and 1996, 279 Hancock II bioprostheses were implanted in 269 patients (166 males, 113 females; mean age 61.8+/-13.3 years). There were 135 AVR (48.4%), 122 MVR (43.8%) and 22 DVR (7.8%). Preoperatively, 208 patients (77.3%) were in NYHA functional class III/IV, 53 (19.7%) had previous cardiac surgery, and 19 (7.1%) underwent concomitant coronary artery bypass. Follow up (mean seven years) was 96% complete, with a total of 1,857 patient-years.

RESULTS

There were 20 early (7.3%), and 78 (29.0%) late deaths. At the last follow up, 68.3% of patients were in NYHA functional class I/II. The actuarial survival rate of patients at 10 and 18 years after discharge was 67.7+/-5.0% and 44.7+/-8.8% after AVR and 64.5+/-5.6% and 32.7+/-11.5% after MVR, respectively; survival after DVR was 74.0+/-11.2% at 12 years. At 10 and 18 years, actuarial freedom from thromboembolism was 83.5+/-4.5% and 73.1+/-10.5% after AVR and 82.1+/-4.3% and 73.2+/-7.3% after MVR; it was 78.4+/-15.0% after DVR at 12 years. At these times, actuarial freedom from hemorrhage was 88.7+/-3.8% and 83.5+/-6.2% after AVR and 79.0+/-4.9% and 32.6+/-23.3% after MVR; freedom after DVR was 36.2+/-26.6%. Probability of freedom from endocarditis at 10 and >15 years was 93.4+/-3.5% and 85.9+/-7.8% after AVR and 97.0+/-2.1% and 97.0+/-2.1% for MVR, respectively; freedom at 10 years after DVR was 75.0+/-21.6%. Freedom from structural deterioration at 10 and 18 years was 77.9+/-5.3% and 18.7+/-14.6% after AVR and 78.3+/-6.0% and 32.1+/-10.2% after MVR; freedom at 10 and 12 years after DVR was 64.0+/-17.5% and 32.0+/-24.2%. A low incidence of structural valve deterioration was found in AVR patients aged >65 years (p = 0.0478). Hemorrhage and paravalvular leak were more frequent in MVR (p = 0.0296 and 0.0309, respectively). No difference was seen in thromboembolism after anticoagulation for one or three months after AVR. Actuarial freedom from explantation at 10 and 18 years was 73.1+/-5.9% and 15.9+/-13.5% after AVR and 77.1+/-6.1% and 37.3+/-9.7% after MVR; freedom at 10 and 12 years after DVR was 72.0+/-17.8% and 24.0+/-20.4%.

CONCLUSION

Over an 18-year follow up, the Hancock II bioprosthesis has shown satisfactory results, with a low incidence of valve-related complications, especially in elderly patients in the aortic position.

Outcome of patients after curative resection of pulmonary metastases

BACKGROUND

Resective surgery can play a role in solitary pulmonary metastasis or in a few multiple metastases of the lungs.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the cure rate and survival in patients with pulmonary metastases after surgical resection. Inclusion criteria included no evidence of extrapulmonary metastases or local control of the primary neoplasia. Selective adjunctive therapy was added when applicable.

RESULTS

Twenty-five out of 53 patients with resected pulmonary metastases are still alive and disease free. After a 5-year period of follow-up the cure rate obtained was 42%.

CONCLUSIONS

In selected patients, resective surgery of solitary or limited multiple pulmonary metastases should be useful, offering the patients a high rate of curability and long term survival. These positive results suggest that adjunctive therapies should be added after resective surgery.

Single dose pharmacokinetics of fenspiride hydrochloride: phase I clinical trial

The absolute bioavailability of fenspiride has been studied in twelve healthy volunteers. It was administered IV and orally in single doses of 80 mg fenspiride hydrochloride according to a randomised crossover pattern. Following IV administration, the plasma clearance of fenspiride was about 184 ml.min-1, and its apparent volume of distribution was moderately large (215 l). When given orally as a tablet, fenspiride exhibited fairly slow ab- sorption; the maximum plasma concentration (206 ng.ml-1) was achieved 6 h after administration. The absolute bioavailability was almost complete (90%). The tablet had slow release characteristics. The elimination half-life obtained from the plasma data was 14 to 16 h independent of the route of administration.