The relationship between low prolactin and type 2 diabetes

Prolactin (PRL) is secreted throughout life in men and women. At elevated levels, its physiological role in pregnancy and lactation, and pathological effects, are well known. However clinical implications of low circulating PRL are not well established. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between low PRL levels and type 2 diabetes. Five papers included cross-sectional studies comprising 8,720 men (mean age range 51.4-60 years) and 3,429 women (49.5-61.6 years), and four papers included cohort studies comprising 2,948 men (52.1-60.0 years) and 3,203 women (49.2-60.1 years). Individuals with pregnancy, lactation and hyperprolactinemia, drugs known to alter circulating PRL levels, or pituitary diseases had been excluded. Although most studies used quartiles to categorize PRL groups for analysis, PRL cut-off values (all measured by chemiluminescence immunoassay) were variably defined between studies: the lowest PRL quartiles ranged from 3.6 ng/ml to 7.2 ng/ml in men and between 4.5 ng/ml to 8 ng/ml in women; and the highest PRL quartiles ranged from 6.9 ng/ml to 13 ng/ml in men and 9.6 ng/ml to 15.8 ng/ml in women. Type 2 diabetes was defined variably using self-reported physician's diagnosis, fasting blood glucose, oral glucose tolerance test or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C). In cross-sectional studies, compared to individuals in the highest PRL groups (reference), those in the lowest PRL groups had greater risk of type 2 diabetes both in men: odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval = 1.86 (1.56-2.22) and in women: OR = 2.15 (1.63-2.85). In cohort studies, women showed a significant association between low PRL and type 2 diabetes: OR = 1.52 (1.02-2.28) but not men: OR = 1.44 (0.46-4.57). Relatively low heterogeneity was observed (I2 = 25-38.4%) for cross-sectional studies, but higher for cohort studies (I2 = 52.8-79.7%). In conclusion, low PRL is associated with type 2 diabetes, but discrepancy between men and women in the relationship within cohort studies requires further research.

Weight management using meal replacements and cardiometabolic risk reduction in individuals with pre-diabetes and features of metabolic syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

This review synthesized the evidence from randomized controlled trials comparing the effect of meal replacements (MRs) as part of a weight loss intervention with conventional food-based weight loss diets on cardiometabolic risk in individuals with pre-diabetes and features of metabolic syndrome. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched through January 16, 2024. Data were pooled using the generic inverse variance method and expressed as mean difference [95% confidence intervals]. The overall certainty of the evidence was assessed using GRADE. Ten trials (n = 1254) met the eligibility criteria. MRs led to greater reductions in body weight (-1.38 kg [-1.81, -0.95]), body mass index (BMI, -0.56 kg/m2 [-0.78, -0.34]), waist circumference (-1.17 cm [-1.93, -0.41]), HbA1c (-0.11% [-0.22, 0.00]), LDL-c (-0.18 mmol/L [-0.28, -0.08]), non-HDL-c (-0.17 mmol/L [-0.33, -0.01]), and systolic blood pressure (-2.22 mmHg [-4.20, -0.23]). The overall certainty of the evidence was low to moderate owing to imprecision and/or inconsistency. The available evidence suggests that incorporating MRs into a weight loss intervention leads to small important reductions in body weight, BMI, LDL-c, non-HDL-c, and systolic blood pressure, and trivial reductions in waist circumference and HbA1c, beyond that seen with conventional food-based weight loss diets.

Appetite and its Regulation: Are there Palatable Interventions for Heart Failure?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity is a major driver of heart failure (HF) incidence, and aggravates its pathophysiology. We summarized key reported and ongoing randomized clinical trials of appetite regulation and/or dietary energy restriction in individuals with HF.

RECENT FINDINGS

Weight loss can be achieved by structured supervised diet programs with behavioural change, medications, or surgery. The new glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists alone or in combination with other agents (e.g., glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon receptor agonists or amylin analogues) potently and sustainably reduce appetite, and, taken together with dietary advice, can produce substantial, life-changing, weight loss approaching that achieved by surgery. To date, data from the STEP-HFpEF trial show meaningful improvements in health status (Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire). Effective weight management could relieve several drivers of HF, to complement the existing treatments for HF with both reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Further trials of weight loss interventions will provide more definitive evidence to understand their effects on clinical events in patients with HF.

The metabolomic signature of weight loss and remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels.

RESULTS

Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes.

DATA AVAILABILITY

The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics_of_direct .

The remote diet intervention to reduce Long COVID symptoms trial (ReDIRECT): protocol for a randomised controlled trial to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a remotely delivered supported weight management programme for people with Long COVID and excess weight, with personalised improvement goals

Objectves

The Remote Diet Intervention to Reduce Long COVID Symptoms Trial (ReDIRECT) evaluates whether the digitally delivered, evidence-based, cost-effective Counterweight-Plus weight management programme improves symptoms of Long COVID in people with overweight/obesity.

Methods

Baseline randomised, non-blinded design with 240 participants allocated in a 1:1 ratio either to continue usual care or to add the remotely delivered Counterweight-Plus weight management programme, which includes a Counterweight dietitian supported delivery of 12 weeks total diet replacement, food reintroduction, and long-term weight loss maintenance. Randomisation is achieved by accessing a web-based randomisation system incorporated into the study web portal developed by a registered Clinical Trials Unit. We are using an innovative approach to outcome personalisation, with each participant selecting their most dominant Long COVID symptom as their primary outcome assessed at six months. Participants in the control arm enter the weight management programme after six months. We are recruiting participants from social media and existing networks (e.g., Long COVID Scotland groups), through newspaper advertisements and from primary care. Main inclusion criteria: people with Long COVID symptoms persisting > three months, aged 18 years or above, body mass index (BMI) above 27kg/m 2 (>25kg/m 2 for South Asians). The trial includes a process evaluation (involving qualitative interviews with participants and analysis of data on dose, fidelity and reach of the intervention) and economic evaluation (within-trial and long-term cost-utility analyses).

Anticipated results

The recruitment for this study started in December 2021 and ended in July 2022. Project results are not yet available and will be shared via peer-reviewed publication once the six-months outcomes have been analysed.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12595520.

Challenges in obtaining accurate anthropometric measures for adults with severe obesity: A community-based study

AIMS

The number of people with severe obesity (BMI ⩾40 kg/m²) is increasing rapidly, but is poorly documented, partly as a result of inappropriate standard anthropometric measurement methods for community-based people.

METHODS

As part of a broader study, people receiving care services and with severe obesity were visited at home. The people were assessed for measurements using different weighing scales and a standard portable stadiometer. If the stadiometer could not be used, their half arm span and knee height were measured to estimate their height using standard predictive equations.

RESULTS

Measurements were taken for 15 women and 10 men (n = 25) aged 40-87 years (mean 62 years). Weights ranged from 98.4 to 211.8 kg (mean 150 kg), with 16 participants requiring bariatric scales. For the six people who were unable to stand, we used wheelchair scales (n = 1), bed weighing scales (n = 2), routine weights from care home records (n = 2) or weight data from hospital records (n = 1). The standard portable stadiometer could only be used for one person; the others required alternative measures from which to estimate height. Large body habitus obscured bony landmarks, meaning alternative measures gave diverse heights. Fourteen participants had a ⩾8 cm difference in height between estimates from half arm span and knee height measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

Standard practice commonly does not provide reliable measurements for people with severe obesity, particularly those with mobility difficulties. An inability to measure weight and height accurately can exclude people from appropriate care, obscuring the true numbers affected and the effectiveness of future service planning. Safe community care requires the availability of specialist scales and standardised methods for height estimation appropriate for older and disabled people with severe obesity.

A Total Diet Replacement Weight Management Program for Difficult-to-Treat Asthma Associated With Obesity: A Randomized Controlled Feasibility Trial

BACKGROUND

Obesity is often associated with uncontrolled, difficult-to-treat asthma and increased morbidity and mortality. Previous studies suggest that weight loss may improve asthma outcomes, but with heterogenous asthma populations studied and unclear consensus on the optimal method of weight management. The Counterweight-Plus Programme (CWP) for weight management is an evidence-based, dietitian-led total diet replacement (TDR) program.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Can use of the CWP compared with usual care (UC) improve asthma control and quality of life in patients with difficult-to-treat asthma and obesity?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a 1:1 (CWP to UC) randomized, controlled single-center trial in adults with difficult-to-treat asthma and BMI of ≥ 30 kg/m2. The CWP was a 12-week TDR phase (800 kcal/d low-energy formula) followed by stepwise food reintroduction and weight loss maintenance for up to 1 year. The primary outcome was the change in Asthma Control Questionnaire 6 (ACQ6) score over 16 weeks. The secondary outcome was change in Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ) score.

RESULTS

Thirty-five participants were randomized (36 screened) and 33 attended the 16-week follow-up (n = 17 in the CWP group, n = 16 in the UC group). Overall, mean ACQ6 score at baseline was 2.8 (95% CI, 2.4-3.1). Weight loss was greater in the CWP than UC group (mean difference, -12.1 kg; 95% CI, -16.9 to -7.4; P < .001). ACQ6 score improved more in the CWP than UC group (mean difference, -0.69; 95% CI, -1.37 to -0.01; P = .048). A larger proportion of participants achieved the minimal clinically important difference in ACQ6 score with CWP than with UC (53% vs 19%; P = .041; Number needed to treat, 3 [95% CI, 1.5-26.9]). AQLQ score improvement was greater in the CWP than UC group (mean difference, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.18-1.34; P = .013).

INTERPRETATION

Using a structured weight management program results in clinically important improvements in asthma control and quality of life over 16 weeks compared with UC in adults with difficult-to-treat asthma and obesity. This generalizable program is easy to deliver for this challenging phenotype. Longer-term outcomes continue to be studied.

TRIAL REGISTRY

ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT03858608; URL: www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov.

Overlooked and under-evidenced: Community health and long-term care service needs, utilization, and costs incurred by people with severe obesity

Numbers of people with severe obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m² ), with need for community health and long-term care (LTC) services, are increasing, but documentation is lacking. We identified individuals with severe obesity known to community health and care professionals in a representative United Kingdom region and used an investigator-administered questionnaire to record needs and use of community health and LTC services. Data were verified against health and LTC records. Local and published sources informed detailed micro-costing. Twenty-five individuals (15 women) consented, aged 40-87 (mean = 62) years, BMI 40-77 (mean = 55) kg/m² : 20 participants (80%) were housebound. Twenty-two different cross-sector community health and LTC services were used, including community equipment service (n = 23), district nursing (n = 20), occupational therapy (n = 14), and LTC (n = 12). Twenty-four (96%) participants used three or more services, with longest care episode lasting over 14 years. Total annual service costs incurred by participants varied from £2053 to £82 792; mean £26 594 (lower estimate £80 064; mean £22 462/upper estimate £88 870; mean £30 726), with greatest costs being for LTC. Individual costs for equipment (currently provided) and home adaptations (ever provided) ranged widely, from zero to £35 946. Total mean annual costs increased by ascending BMI category, up to BMI 70 kg/m² . This study provides a framework with which to inform service provision and economic analysis of weight management interventions. People with severe obesity may need sustained care from multiple community care services.

Physical activity, inactivity and sleep during the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

AIMS

As sustained weight loss is vital for achieving remission of type 2 diabetes, we explored whether randomisation to weight loss plus maintenance in the DiRECT trial was associated with physical activity, inactivity or sleep.

METHODS

Participants were randomised to either a dietary weight management programme or best-practice care. The weight management group were encouraged to increase daily physical activity to their sustainable maximum. Objective measurement was achieved using a wrist-worn GENEActiv accelerometer for 7 days at baseline, 12 and 24 months in both groups.

RESULTS

Despite average weight loss of 10 kg at 12 months in the intervention (n = 66) group, there were no differences in total physical activity or inactivity compared with the control (n = 104) at any time point. However, in our exploratory analysis, those who lost more than 10% of their baseline body weight performed on average 11 mins/day more light activity than the <10% group at 24 months (p = 0.033) and had significantly lower bouts of Inactivity_30min (interaction, p = 0.005) across 12 and 24 months. At 24 months, the ≥10% group had higher daily acceleration (38.5 ± 12.1 vs. 33.2 ± 11.1 mg, p = 0.020), and higher accelerations in the most active 5-hour period (59.4 ± 21.8 vs. 50.6 ± 18.3 mg, p = 0.023). Wakefulness after sleep onset decreased in the intervention group compared with the control group and also in the ≥10% weight loss group at 12 and 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Randomisation to a successful intensive weight loss intervention, including regular physical activity encouragement, was not associated with increased physical activity although sleep parameters improved. Physical activity was greater, and night-time waking reduced in those who maintained >10% weight loss at 12 and 24 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN03267836.

Participant experiences in the Diabetes REmission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

INTRODUCTION

The Diabetes REmission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) has shown that sustained remission of type 2 diabetes in primary care is achievable through weight loss using total diet replacement (TDR) with continued behavioural support. Understanding participants' experiences can help optimise the intervention, support implementation into healthcare, and understand the process of behaviour change.

METHODS

Thirty-four DiRECT participants were recruited into this embedded qualitative evaluation study. In-person and telephone interviews were conducted before the TDR; at week 6-8 of the TDR; 2 weeks into food reintroduction (FR); and at 1 year, to learn about participant experiences with the programme. Transcribed narratives were analysed thematically, and we used interpretation to develop overarching themes.

RESULTS

Initiation of the TDR and transition to FR were challenging and required increased behavioural support. In general, adhering to TDR proved easier than the participants had anticipated. Some participants chose the optional extension of TDR. Rapid weight loss and changes in diabetes markers provided ongoing motivation. Further weight loss, behavioural support and occasional use of TDR facilitated weight loss maintenance (WLM). A process of behaviour adaptation to change following regime disruption was identified in three stages: (1) expectations of the new, (2) overcoming difficulties with adherence, and (3) acceptance of continuous effort and establishment of routines.

CONCLUSIONS

The DiRECT intervention was acceptable and regularity, continuity, and tailoring of behavioural support was instrumental in its implementation in primary care. The adaptation process accounts for some of the individual variability of experiences with the intervention and highlights the need for programme flexibility.

Sex differences in intraorgan fat levels and hepatic lipid metabolism: implications for cardiovascular health and remission of type 2 diabetes after dietary weight loss

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Type 2 diabetes confers a greater relative increase in CVD risk in women compared with men. We examined sex differences in intraorgan fat and hepatic VLDL1-triacylglycerol (VLDL1-TG) export before and after major dietary weight loss.

METHODS

A group with type 2 diabetes (n = 64, 30 male/34 female) and a group of healthy individuals (n = 25, 13 male/12 female) were studied. Intraorgan and visceral fat were quantified by magnetic resonance and VLDL1-TG export by intralipid infusion techniques.

RESULTS

Triacylglycerol content of the liver and pancreas was elevated in people with diabetes with no sex differences (liver 16.4% [9.3-25.0%] in women vs 11.9% [7.0-23.1%] in men, p = 0.57, and pancreas 8.3 ± 0.5% vs 8.5 ± 0.4%, p = 0.83, respectively). In the absence of diabetes, fat levels in both organs were lower in women than men (1.0% [0.9-1.7%] vs 4.5% [1.9-8.0%], p = 0.005, and 4.7 ± 0.4% vs 7.6 ± 0.5%, p< 0.0001, respectively). Women with diabetes had higher hepatic VLDL1-TG production rate and plasma VLDL1-TG than healthy women (559.3 ± 32.9 vs 403.2 ± 45.7 mg kg-1 day-1, p = 0.01, and 0.45 [0.26-0.77] vs 0.25 [0.13-0.33] mmol/l, p = 0.02), whereas there were no differences in men (548.8 ± 39.8 vs 506.7 ± 29.2 mg kg-1 day-1, p = 0.34, and 0.72 [0.53-1.15] vs 0.50 [0.32-0.68] mmol/l, p = 0.26). Weight loss decreased intraorgan fat and VLDL1-TG production rates regardless of sex, and these changes were accompanied by similar rates of diabetes remission (65.4% vs 71.0%) and CVD risk reduction (59.8% vs 41.5%) in women and men, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In type 2 diabetes, women have liver and pancreas fat levels as high as those of men, associated with raised hepatic VLDL1-TG production rates. Dynamics of triacylglycerol turnover differ between sexes in type 2 diabetes and following weight loss. These changes may contribute to the disproportionately raised cardiovascular risk of women with diabetes.

Total Diet Replacement Within an Integrated Intensive Lifestyle Intervention for Remission of Type 2 Diabetes: Lessons From DiRECT

The prognosis for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains concerning, yet its seriousness is often underestimated. T2D is a manifestation, in susceptible individuals, of the disease-process of obesity, and at diagnosis, 10-year survival rates for T2D are around 50%. Here, we will examine: (a) the role of weight loss in T2D, (b) use of total diet replacements (TDRs) to induce weight loss, (c) the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) protocol and key results, (d) other dietary interventions related to T2D remission, (e) remission in real life, and (f) future directions. Remission of short-duration T2D will usually require 10-15% body weight loss, and results from the DiRECT trial demonstrated that this can be achieved within routine care in nearly half of all people undertaking a supported, TDR-led behavioural weight management programme. In light of these findings, which have since been replicated in the Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism (DIADEM-I) trial conducted in the Middle East and North Africa, it is now time to prioritize weight loss programmes for T2D remission from diagnosis, and with increasing acceptance and availability of digital healthcare, there is an opportunity to scale up delivery of remission programmes in a cost effective manner.

Diets for weight management in adults with type 2 diabetes: an umbrella review of published meta-analyses and systematic review of trials of diets for diabetes remission

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Weight reduction is fundamental for type 2 diabetes management and remission, but uncertainty exists over which diet type is best to achieve and maintain weight loss. We evaluated dietary approaches for weight loss, and remission, in people with type 2 diabetes to inform practice and clinical guidelines.

METHODS

First, we conducted a systematic review of published meta-analyses of RCTs of weight-loss diets. We searched MEDLINE (Ovid), PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, up to 7 May 2021. We synthesised weight loss findings stratified by diet types and assessed meta-analyses quality with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2. We assessed certainty of pooled results of each meta-analysis using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) (PROSPERO CRD42020169258). Second, we conducted a systematic review of any intervention studies reporting type 2 diabetes remission with weight-loss diets, in MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, up to 10 May 2021. Findings were synthesised by diet type and study quality (Cochrane Risk of Bias tool 2.0 and Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions [ROBINS-I]), with GRADE applied (PROSPERO CRD42020208878).

RESULTS

We identified 19 meta-analyses of weight-loss diets, involving 2-23 primary trials (n = 100-1587), published 2013-2021. Twelve were 'critically low' or 'low' AMSTAR 2 quality, with seven 'high' quality. Greatest weight loss was reported with very low energy diets, 1.7-2.1 MJ/day (400-500 kcal) for 8-12 weeks (high-quality meta-analysis, GRADE low), achieving 6.6 kg (95% CI -9.5, -3.7) greater weight loss than low-energy diets (4.2-6.3 MJ/day [1000-1500 kcal]). Formula meal replacements (high quality, GRADE moderate) achieved 2.4 kg (95% CI -3.3, -1.4) greater weight loss over 12-52 weeks. Low-carbohydrate diets were no better for weight loss than higher-carbohydrate/low-fat diets (high quality, GRADE high). High-protein, Mediterranean, high-monounsaturated-fatty-acid, vegetarian and low-glycaemic-index diets all achieved minimal (0.3-2 kg) or no difference from control diets (low to critically low quality, GRADE very low/moderate). For type 2 diabetes remission, of 373 records, 16 met inclusion criteria. Remissions at 1 year were reported for a median 54% of participants in RCTs including initial low-energy total diet replacement (low-risk-of-bias study, GRADE high), and 11% and 15% for meal replacements and Mediterranean diets, respectively (some concerns for risk of bias in studies, GRADE moderate/low). For ketogenic/very low-carbohydrate and very low-energy food-based diets, the evidence for remission (20% and 22%, respectively) has serious and critical risk of bias, and GRADE certainty is very low.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Published meta-analyses of hypocaloric diets for weight management in people with type 2 diabetes do not support any particular macronutrient profile or style over others. Very low energy diets and formula meal replacement appear the most effective approaches, generally providing less energy than self-administered food-based diets. Programmes including a hypocaloric formula 'total diet replacement' induction phase were most effective for type 2 diabetes remission. Most of the evidence is restricted to 1 year or less. Well-conducted research is needed to assess longer-term impacts on weight, glycaemic control, clinical outcomes and diabetes complications.

Banting Memorial Lecture 2021-Banting, banting, banter and bravado: Convictions meet evidence in the scientific process: Diabetes UK Professional Conference, 27 April 2021

This personal account presents some glimpses into the clinical research processes which have made radical changes to our understanding of disease and treatment, and some characteristics of researchers, drawn from history and personal experiences around obesity and type 2 diabetes. Some summary messages emerge: The history of clinical diabetes research has shown how, perhaps through skilful leadership, combining very different personalities, skills and motivation can solve great challenges: Type 2 diabetes is a primary nutritional disease, secondary to the disease-process of obesity, not a primary endocrine disease. Type 2 diabetes is a manifestation of the disease-process of obesity, revealed by weight gain in people with underlying metabolic syndrome genetics/diathesis, mediated in large part at least by reversible ectopic fat accumulation impairing function of organs (liver, pancreas, brown adipose tissue). Treat overweight/obesity more seriously (defined as a disease-process with multiple organ-specific complications-not as a disease-state or BMI cut-off). Discuss the complications and risks of T2D openly: remission is as important as for cancers. Offer and support an optimal dietary weight management program as soon as possible from diagnosis, specifically aiming for remission: (a) Warn against non-evidence-based programs that look similar or claim to have similar potential: we have fully evidence-based programs; (b) Target sustained loss of >15 kg for Europeans (possibly less, e.g. >10 kg for Asians?). Increase future research support to enhance long-term weight loss maintenance. Several approaches need consideration: (a) Personalise diet compositions (recognising there is no intrinsic advantage from different carbohydrate/fat content). (b) Novel diet strategies (e.g. 5:2, time-restricted, flexible diet compositions). (c) New pharmaceutical agents as adjuncts to diet if necessary. (d) Novel food supplements to increase endogenous GLP-1 secretion.

Antihypertensive medication needs and blood pressure control with weight loss in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Our aim was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a planned therapeutic withdrawal of all antihypertensive and diuretic medications, on commencing a formula low-energy diet replacement, targeting remission of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis of changes in BP, antihypertensive medication prescriptions and symptoms during the initial total diet replacement phase was performed in the intervention arm of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (n = 143) and in the subset (n = 69) who discontinued antihypertensive medications at the start of total diet replacement. The Counterweight-Plus total diet replacement provided about 3470 kJ/day (830 kcal) with automatic reductions in all nutrients, including sodium, to achieve marked negative energy balance and rapid weight loss over 12-20 weeks, with regular BP monitoring and an antihypertensive reintroduction protocol based on current clinical guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 143 intervention group participants who commenced total diet replacement, 78 (55%) were on treatment for hypertension at baseline. The overall mean BP fell significantly from the start of total diet replacement (week 1) and was significantly lower at week 20, after total diet replacement finished, and also at 12 and 24 months. Of the 78 participants previously on treatment for hypertension, 65 (83%) stopped all antihypertensive and diuretic medications as per protocol, and four (5%) stopped some drugs. These 69 participants experienced no immediate (within the first week) change in BP, but their mean BP fell significantly from 9 weeks. No excessive rises in BP were recorded in individuals, but antihypertensive medications were reintroduced during total diet replacement to manage raised BP for 19/69 (27.5%) participants, mostly within the first 3-7 weeks, despite some weight loss. Reintroduction of antihypertensive medications was necessary for 5/19 participants previously on one drug, and for 14/19 previously on two or more drugs. Of the 69 who stopped antihypertensives, 19 (28%) remained off medications at 24 months. Among the 53 participants who achieved sustained remissions of diabetes at 24 months (with a mean weight loss of 11.4 kg), 31 had been previously treated for hypertension. Twenty-seven stopped medication at baseline, and 15/27 required reintroduction of antihypertensive medications. Mild to moderate dizziness, suggesting some postural hypotension, was reported during total diet replacement by 51 participants, 15 of whom had recorded dizziness at baseline prior to starting total diet replacement, with nine of these on antihypertensive or diuretic medications.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Replacing antihypertensive medications with a 3470 kJ/day (830 kcal) diet to induce weight loss reduces BP substantially and may increase mild dizziness. It is safe to stop antihypertensives, but BP should be monitored regularly, particularly for those taking two or more antihypertensives, as over two-thirds will require reintroduction of some medications. Long-term support to maintain weight loss is vital.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN registry, number 03267836.

Predictors of type 2 diabetes remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

AIM

To identify predictors of type 2 diabetes remission in the intervention arm of DiRECT (Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial).

METHODS

Participants were aged 20-65 years, with type 2 diabetes duration of <6 years and BMI 27-45 kg/m² , and were not receiving insulin. Weight loss was initiated by total diet replacement (825-853 kcal/day, 3-5 months, shakes/soups), and weight loss maintenance support was provided for 2 years. Remissions (HbA_1c <48 mmol/mol [<6.5%], without antidiabetes medications) in the intervention group (n = 149, mean age 53 years, BMI 35 kg/m² ) were achieved by 68/149 participants (46%) at 12 months and by 53/149 participants (36%) at 24 months. Potential predictors were examined by logistic regression analyses, with adjustments for weight loss and effects independent of weight loss.

RESULTS

Baseline predictors of remission at 12 and 24 months included being prescribed fewer antidiabetes medications, having lower triglyceride and gamma-glutamyl transferase levels, and reporting better quality of life with less anxiety/depression. Lower baseline HbA_1c was a predictor at 12 months, and older age and male sex were predictors at 24 months. Being prescribed antidepressants predicted non-remission. Some, but not all effects were explained by weight loss. Weight loss was the strongest predictor of remission at 12 months (adjusted odds ratio per kg weight loss 1.24, 95% CI 1.14, 1.34; P < 0.0001) and 24 months (adjusted odds ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.13, 1.35; P <0.0001). Weight loss in kilograms and percentage weight loss were equally good predictors. Early weight loss and higher programme attendance predicted more remissions. Baseline BMI, fasting insulin, fasting C-peptide and diabetes duration did not predict remission.

CONCLUSIONS

Other than weight loss, most predictors were modest, and not sufficient to identify subgroups for which remission was not a worthwhile target.

A novel decision model to predict the impact of weight management interventions: The Core Obesity Model

Aims

Models are needed to quantify the economic implications of obesity in relation to health outcomes and health-related quality of life. This report presents the structure of the Core Obesity Model (COM) and compare its predictions with the UK clinical practice data.

Materials and methods

The COM is a Markov, closed-cohort model, which expands on earlier obesity models by including prediabetes as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and sleep apnea and cancer as health outcomes. Selected outcomes predicted by the COM were compared with observed event rates from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink-Hospital Episode Statistics (CPRD-HES) study. The importance of baseline prediabetes prevalence, a factor not taken into account in previous economic models of obesity, was tested in a scenario analysis using data from the 2011 Health Survey of England.

Results

Cardiovascular (CV) event rates predicted by the COM were well matched with those in the CPRD-HES study (7.8-8.5 per 1000 patient-years across BMI groups) in both base case and scenario analyses (8.0-9.4 and 8.6-9.9, respectively). Rates of T2D were underpredicted in the base case (1.0-7.6 vs. 2.1-22.7) but increased to match those observed in CPRD-HES for some BMI groups when a prospectively collected prediabetes prevalence was used (2.7-13.1). Mortality rates in the CPRD-HES were consistently higher than the COM predictions, especially in higher BMI groups.

Conclusions

The COM predicts the occurrence of CV events and T2D with a good degree of accuracy, particularly when prediabetes is included in the model, indicating the importance of considering this risk factor in economic models of obesity.

Weight loss-induced increase in fasting ghrelin concentration is a predictor of weight regain: Evidence from the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

AIM

To investigate whether appetite-related hormones were predictors of weight regain in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

DiRECT is a cluster-randomized clinical trial, designed to assess the effect of weight loss on type 2 diabetes remission. For this post hoc analysis, data were available for 253 (147 interventions, 106 controls) individuals with type 2 diabetes (age 53.6 ± 7.5 years, body mass index 34.7 ± 4.4 kg/m2 , 59% men). Intervention participants received a 24-month weight management programme, and controls remained on usual diabetes care. Fasting plasma concentrations of leptin, ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide-1 and peptide YY were measured at baseline, 12 months and 24 months in all participants, and at 5 months in a subset of participants in the intervention (n = 56) and control groups (n = 22). Potential predictors were examined using multivariable linear regression models.

RESULTS

The intervention group lost 14.3 ± 6.0% body weight at 5 months but regained weight over time, with weight losses of 10.0 ± 7.5% at 12 months and 7.6 ± 6.3% at 24 months. Weight loss in controls was 1.1 ± 3.7% and 2.1 ± 5.0% at 12 and 24 months, respectively. Body weight increased by 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4, 4.1; P = 0.019) between 12 and 24 months for every 1-ng/mL increase in ghrelin between baseline and 12 months, and weight regain between 12 and 24 months was increased by 1.1% (95% CI 0.2, 2.0; P = 0.023) body weight for every 1-ng/mL increase in ghrelin at 12 months.

CONCLUSION

The rise in ghrelin (but not any other measured hormone) during diet-induced weight loss was a predictor of weight regain during follow-up, and concentrations remained elevated over time, suggesting a small but significant compensatory drive to regain weight. Attenuating the effects of ghrelin may improve weight-loss maintenance.

Estimating and reporting treatment effects in clinical trials for weight management: using estimands to interpret effects of intercurrent events and missing data

In the approval process for new weight management therapies, regulators typically require estimates of effect size. Usually, as with other drug evaluations, the placebo-adjusted treatment effect (i.e., the difference between weight losses with pharmacotherapy and placebo, when given as an adjunct to lifestyle intervention) is provided from data in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). At first glance, this may seem appropriate and straightforward. However, weight loss is not a simple direct drug effect, but is also mediated by other factors such as changes in diet and physical activity. Interpreting observed differences between treatment arms in weight management RCTs can be challenging; intercurrent events that occur after treatment initiation may affect the interpretation of results at the end of treatment. Utilizing estimands helps to address these uncertainties and improve transparency in clinical trial reporting by better matching the treatment-effect estimates to the scientific and/or clinical questions of interest. Estimands aim to provide an indication of trial outcomes that might be expected in the same patients under different conditions. This article reviews how intercurrent events during weight management trials can influence placebo-adjusted treatment effects, depending on how they are accounted for and how missing data are handled. The most appropriate method for statistical analysis is also discussed, including assessment of the last observation carried forward approach, and more recent methods, such as multiple imputation and mixed models for repeated measures. The use of each of these approaches, and that of estimands, is discussed in the context of the SCALE phase 3a and 3b RCTs evaluating the effect of liraglutide 3.0 mg for the treatment of obesity.

Brief formula low-energy-diet for relapse management during weight loss maintenance in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

BACKGROUND

Weight loss maintenance (WLM) is critical for sustaining type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission, but poorly evidenced. We evaluated brief return to formula low-energy-diet (LED) as relapse treatments (RTs) during the WLM phase of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

METHODS

This post-hoc evaluation included all participants commencing the WLM phase of DiRECT. The protocol offered RT when regain of >2 kg occurred.

RESULTS

In total, 123/149 (83%) DiRECT intervention participants commenced the WLM phase after 26 (17%) had withdrawn prior to the WLM phase. Most participants [99/123 (80%)] regained >2 kg during the WLM phase, among whom 60/99 (61%) were recorded as using RT and 39/99 (39%) not using any RT. At baseline, RT users had a higher mean (SD) body mass index [35.8 (4.9) kg m^-2 vs. 33.8 (3.9) kg m^-2 , p = 0.0231] and had greater social deprivation (P = 0.0003) than non-users, although otherwise the groups were similar. Weight loss ≥ 2k g was achieved in 30/93 (32%) of RT attempts. At 2 years, those regaining >2 kg and using RT (n = 60) had mean (SD) weight losses of 7.4 (6.1) kg, with 25 (42%) remissions and 7 (12%) programme withdrawals. Those regaining >2 kg but not using RT (n = 39) had weight losses of 8.8 (6.0) kg, with 21 (54%) remissions and 4 (10%) programme withdrawals (all not significant). Twelve participants were never recorded as having regained >2 kg or using RTs and, at 2 years, their weight losses were 12.9 (9.2) kg, with 4 (33%) remissions and 8 (67%) programme withdrawals.

CONCLUSIONS

Most people with T2D experience weight regain >2 kg during the 2 years after substantial weight loss with a LED. Only one-third of RTs corrected their 2-kg regain, resulting in similar weight losses, remissions and programme withdrawals at 2 years compared to those not using RTs; however, both groups had weight losses below those not recorded as regaining >2 kg during WLM.

2-year remission of type 2 diabetes and pancreas morphology: a post-hoc analysis of the DiRECT open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The pancreas is small and irregular in shape in people with type 2 diabetes. If these abnormalities are caused by the disease state itself rather than being a predisposing factor, remission of type 2 diabetes should restore normal pancreas morphology. The objective of this study was to determine whether changes in pancreas volume and shape occurred during 2 years of remission.

METHODS

For this post-hoc analysis, we included a subset of adult participants of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT), who had type 2 diabetes and were randomly assigned to a weight management intervention or routine diabetes management. Intervention group participants were categorised as responders (HbA_1c <6·5% [48 mmol/mol] and fasting blood glucose <7·0 mmol/L, off all anti-diabetes medication) and non-responders, who were classified as remaining diabetic. Data on pancreas volume and irregularity of pancreas border at baseline, 5 months, 12 months, and 24 months after intervention were compared between responders and non-responders; additional comparisons were made between control group participants with type 2 diabetes and a non-diabetic comparator (NDC) group, who were matched to the intervention group by age, sex, and post-weight-loss weight, to determine the extent of any normalisation. We used a mixed-effects regression model based on repeated measures ANOVA with correction for potential confounding. Magnetic resonance techniques were employed to quantify pancreas volume, the irregularity of the pancreas borders, and intrapancreatic fat content. β-cell function and biomarkers of tissue growth were also measured.

FINDINGS

Between July 25, 2015, and Aug 5, 2016, 90 participants with type 2 diabetes in the DiRECT subset were randomly assigned to intervention (n=64) or control (n=26) and were assessed at baseline; a further 25 non-diabetic participants were enrolled into the NDC group. At baseline, mean pancreas volume was 61·7 cm³ (SD 16·0) in all participants with type 2 diabetes and 79·8 cm³ (14·3) in the NDC group (p<0·0001). At 24 months, pancreas volume had increased by 9·4 cm³ (95% CI 6·1 to 12·8) in responders compared with 6·4 cm³ (2·5 to 10·3) in non-responders (p=0·0008). Pancreas borders at baseline were more irregular in participants with type 2 diabetes than in the NDC group (fractal dimension 1·138 [SD 0·027] vs 1·097 [0·025]; p<0·0001) and had normalised by 24 months in responders only (1·099 [0·028]). Intrapancreatic fat declined by 1·02 percentage points (95% CI 0·53 to 1·51) in 32 responders and 0·51% (-0·17 to 1·19) in 13 non-responders (p=0·23).

INTERPRETATION

These data show for the first time, to our knowledge, reversibility of the abnormal pancreas morphology of type 2 diabetes by weight loss-induced remission.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

'I have been all in, I have been all out and I have been everything in-between': A 2-year longitudinal qualitative study of weight loss maintenance

BACKGROUND

Qualitative studies investigating weight management experiences are usually cross-sectional or of short duration, which limits understanding of the long-term challenges.

METHODS

Eleven women [mean (SD) age 44.9 (9.8) years; body mass index 40.3 (4.0) kg m^-2 ] participated in this longitudinal qualitative study, which included up to 20 weeks of total diet replacement (825-853 kcal day^-1 ) and ongoing support for weight loss maintenance (WLM), to 2 years. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at baseline and programme end, as well as at key intervals during the intervention. Questions examined five theoretical themes: motivation, self-regulation, habits, psychological resources and social/environmental influences. Data were coded and analysed in nvivo (https://qsrinternational.com/nvivo) using the framework method.

RESULTS

In total, 64 interviews were completed (median, n = 6 per participant). Mean (SD) weight loss was 15.7 (9.6) kg (14.6% body weight) at 6 months and 9.6 (9.9) kg (8.8% body weight) at 2 years. The prespecified theoretical model offered a useful framework to capture the variability of experiences. Negative aspects of obesity were strong motivations for weight loss and maintenance. Perceiving new routines as sustainable and developing a 'maintenance mindset' was characteristic of 'Maintainers', whereas meeting emotional needs at the expense of WLM goals during periods of stress and negative mood states was reported more often by 'Regainers'. Optimistic beliefs about maintaining weight losses appeared to interfere with barrier identification and coping planning for most participants.

CONCLUSIONS

People tended to be very optimistic about WLM without acknowledging barriers and this may undermine longer-term outcomes. The potential for regain remained over time, mainly as a result of emotion-triggered eating to alleviate stress and negative feelings. More active self-regulation during these circumstances may improve WLM, and these situations represent important targets for intervention.

Type 2 diabetes remission: 2 year within-trial and lifetime-horizon cost-effectiveness of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Approximately 10% of total healthcare budgets worldwide are spent on treating diabetes and its complications, and budgets are increasing globally because of ageing populations and more expensive second-line medications. The aims of the study were to estimate the within-trial and lifetime cost-effectiveness of the weight management programme, which achieved 46% remissions of type 2 diabetes at year 1 and 36% at year 2 in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

METHODS

Within-trial analysis assessed costs of the Counterweight-Plus intervention in DiRECT (including training, programme materials, practitioner appointments and low-energy diet), along with glucose-lowering and antihypertensive medications, and all routine healthcare contacts. Lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was estimated according to projected durations of remissions, assuming continued relapse rates as seen in year 2 of DiRECT and consequent life expectancy, quality of life and healthcare costs.

RESULTS

Mean total 2 year healthcare costs for the intervention and control groups were £3036 and £2420, respectively: an incremental cost of £616 (95% CI -£45, £1269). Intervention costs (£1411; 95% CI £1308, £1511) were partially offset by lower other healthcare costs (£796; 95% CI £150, £1465), including reduced oral glucose-lowering medications by £231 (95% CI £148, £314). Net remission at 2 years was 32.3% (95% CI 23.5%, 40.3%), and cost per remission achieved was £1907 (lower 95% CI: intervention dominates; upper 95% CI: £4212). Over a lifetime horizon, the intervention was modelled to achieve a mean 0.06 (95% CI 0.04, 0.09) QALY gain for the DiRECT population and mean total lifetime cost savings per participant of £1337 (95% CI £674, £2081), with the intervention becoming cost-saving within 6 years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Incorporating the lifetime healthcare cost savings due to periods of remission from diabetes and its complications, the DiRECT intervention is predicted to be both more effective (QALY gain) and cost-saving in adults with type 2 diabetes compared with standard care. This conclusion appears robust to various less favourable model scenarios, providing strong evidence that resources could be shifted cost-effectively to support achieving remissions with the DiRECT intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN03267836 Graphical abstract.

Lower carbohydrate and higher fat intakes are associated with higher hemoglobin A1c: findings from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2016

PURPOSE

Evidence of low-carbohydrate, high-fat diets (LCHF) for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) prevention is scarce. We investigated how carbohydrate intake relates to HbA1c and T2DM prevalence in a nationally representative survey dataset.

METHODS

We analyzed dietary information (4-day food diaries) from 3234 individuals aged ≥ 16 years, in eight waves of the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2016). We calculated LCHF scores (0-20, higher score indicating lower  %food energy from carbohydrate, with reciprocal higher contribution from fat) and UK Dietary Reference Value (DRV) scores (0-16, based on UK dietary recommendations). Associations between macronutrients and diet scores and diabetes prevalence were analyzed (in the whole sample) using multivariate logistic regression. Among those without diabetes, analyses between exposures and %HbA1c (continuous) were analyzed using multivariate linear regression. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, smoking status, total energy intake, socioeconomic status and survey years.

RESULTS

In the overall study sample, 194 (6.0%) had diabetes. Mean intake was 48.0%E for carbohydrates, and 34.9%E for total fat. Every 5%E decrease in carbohydrate, and every 5%E increase in fat, was associated with 12% (95% CI 0.78-0.99; P = 0.03) and 17% (95% CI 1.02-1.33; P = 0.02) higher odds of diabetes, respectively. Each two-point increase in LCHF score is related to 8% (95% CI 1.02-1.14; P = 0.006) higher odds of diabetes, while there was no evidence for association between DRV score and diabetes. Among the participants without diagnosed diabetes (n = 3130), every 5%E decrease in carbohydrate was associated with higher %HbA1c by + 0.016% (95% CI 0.004-0.029; P = 0.012), whereas every 5%E increase in fat was associated with higher  %HbA1c by + 0.029% (95% CI 0.015-0.043; P < 0.001). Each two-point increase in LCHF score is related to higher  %HbA1c by + 0.010% (0.1 mmol/mol), while each two-point increase in the DRV score is related to lower  %HbA1c by - 0.023% (0.23 mmol/mol).

CONCLUSIONS

Lower carbohydrate and higher fat intakes were associated with higher HbA1c and greater odds of having diabetes. These data do not support low(er) carbohydrate diets for diabetes prevention.

Erratum: Validity of predictive equations to estimate RMR in females with varying BMI - CORRIGENDUM

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1017/jns.2020.11.].

Time Course of Normalization of Functional β-Cell Capacity in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial After Weight Loss in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess functional β-cell capacity in type 2 diabetes during 2 years of remission induced by dietary weight loss.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A Stepped Insulin Secretion Test with Arginine was used to quantify functional β-cell capacity by hyperglycemia and arginine stimulation. Thirty-nine of 57 participants initially achieved remission (HbA_1c <6.5% [<48 mmol/mol] and fasting plasma glucose <7 mmol/L on no antidiabetic drug therapy) with a 16.4 ± 7.7 kg weight loss and were followed up with supportive advice on avoidance of weight regain. At 2 years, 20 participants remained in remission in the study. A nondiabetic control (NDC) group, matched for age, sex, and weight after weight loss with the intervention group, was studied once.

RESULTS

During remission, median (interquartile range) maximal rate of insulin secretion increased from 581 (480-811) pmol/min/m² at baseline to 736 (542-998) pmol/min/m² at 5 months, 942 (565-1,240) pmol/min/m² at 12 months (P = 0.028 from baseline), and 936 (635-1,435) pmol/min/m² at 24 months (P = 0.023 from baseline; n = 20 of 39 of those initially in remission). This was comparable to the NDC group (1,016 [857-1,507] pmol/min/m²) by 12 (P = 0.064) and 24 (P = 0.244) months. Median first-phase insulin response increased from baseline to 5 months (42 [4-67] to 107 [59-163] pmol/min/m²; P < 0.0001) and then remained stable at 12 and 24 months (110 [59-201] and 125 [65-166] pmol/min/m², respectively; P < 0.0001 vs. baseline) but lower than that of the NDC group (250 [226-429] pmol/min/m²; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

A gradual increase in assessed functional β-cell capacity occurred after weight loss, becoming similar to that of NDC group participants by 12 months. This result was unchanged at 2 years with continuing remission of type 2 diabetes.

Low and reduced carbohydrate diets: challenges and opportunities for type 2 diabetes management and prevention

Low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) have been promoted for weight control and type 2 diabetes (T2D) management, based on an emerging body of evidence, including meta-analyses with an indication of publication bias. Proposed definitions vary between 50 and 130 g/d, or <10 and <40 % of energy from carbohydrate, with no consensus on LCD compositional criteria. LCD are usually followed with limited consideration for other macronutrients in the overall diet composition, introducing variance in the constituent foods and in metabolic responses. For weight management, extensive evidence supports LCD as a valid weight loss treatment, up to 1-2 years. Solely lowering carbohydrate intake does not, in the medium/long term, reduce HbA1c for T2D prevention or treatment, as many mechanisms interplay. Under controlled feeding conditions, LCD are not physiologically or clinically superior to diets with higher carbohydrates for weight-loss, fat loss, energy expenditure or glycaemic outcomes; indeed, all metabolic improvements require weight loss. Long-term evidence also links the LCD pattern to increased CVD risks and mortality. LCD can lead to micronutrient deficiencies and increased LDL-cholesterol, depending on food selection to replace carbohydrates. Evidence is limited but promising regarding food choices/sources to replace high-carbohydrate foods that may alleviate the negative effects of LCD, demanding further insight into the dietary practice of medium to long term LCD followers. Long-term, high-quality studies of LCD with different food sources (animal and/or plant origins) are needed, aiming for clinical endpoints (T2D incidence and remission, cardiovascular events, mortality). Ensuring micronutrient adequacy by food selection or supplementation should be considered for people who wish to pursue long-term LCD.

The role of appetite-related hormones, adaptive thermogenesis, perceived hunger and stress in long-term weight-loss maintenance: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Weight-loss maintenance is challenging, and few succeed in the long term. This study aimed to explain how appetite-related hormones, adaptive thermogenesis, perceived hunger and stress influence weight-loss maintenance.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Fifteen adult women (age, 46.3 ± 9.5 years; BMI, 39.4 ± 4.3 kg/m²) participated in a 24-month intervention, which included 3-5 months total diet replacement (825-853 kcal/d). Body weight and composition (Magnetic Resonance Imaging), resting metabolic rate (indirect calorimetry), and fasting plasma concentration of leptin, ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), peptide YY (PYY), and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) were measured at baseline and after weight loss, around 6 months. Perceptions relating to weight-loss maintenance were explored using qualitative interviews.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) changes in body weight (-13.8 ± 6.3 kg) and total adipose tissue (-11.5 ± 4.9 kg) were significant (P < 0.001). Weight loss was associated with a significant reduction in resting metabolic rate (-291 ± 226 kcal/day, P < 0.001) and adaptive thermogenesis (-150 ± 162 kcal/day, P = 0.003), reduction in leptin (P < 0.001) and GLP-1 (P = 0.015), an increase in ghrelin (P < 0.001), and no changes in PYY and GDF-15. Weight regain between 6 and 24 months (6.1 ± 6.3 kg, P < 0.05) was negatively correlated with GLP-1 at baseline (r = −0.7, P = 0.003) and after weight loss (r = -0.7, P = 0.005). Participants did not report increased hunger after weight loss, and stress-related/emotional eating was perceived as the main reason for regain.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight regain is more likely with lower fasting GLP-1 at baseline and following weight loss, but psychological aspects of eating behaviour appear as important in attenuating weight-loss maintenance.

Hepatic Lipoprotein Export and Remission of Human Type 2 Diabetes after Weight Loss

The role of hepatic lipoprotein metabolism in diet-induced remission of type 2 diabetes is currently unclear. Here, we determined the contributions of hepatic VLDL1-triglyceride production rate and VLDL1-palmitic acid content to changes in intra-pancreatic fat and return of first phase insulin response in a subgroup of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial. Liver fat, VLDL1-triglyceride production, and intra-pancreatic fat decreased after weight loss and remained normalized after 24 months of remission. First-phase insulin response remained increased only in those maintaining diabetes remission. Compared with those in remission at 24 months, individuals who relapsed after initial remission had a greater rise in the content of VLDL1-triglyceride and VLDL1-palmitic acid, re-accumulated intra-pancreatic fat, and lost first-phase response by 24 months. Thus, we observed temporal relationships between VLDL1-triglyceride production, hepatic palmitic acid flux, intra-pancreatic fat, and β-cell function. Weight-related disordered fat metabolism appears to drive development and reversal of type 2 diabetes.

Turning the tables on obesity: young people, IT and social movements

Despite the rising incidence of childhood obesity, international data from Eurostat show that the prevalence of obesity among those aged 15-19 years remains under 5%, which offers an important opportunity for preventing subsequent adult obesity. Young people engage poorly, even obstructively, with conventional health initiatives and are often considered 'hard to reach'. However, when approached in the language of youth, via IT, they express great concern, and unwanted weight gain in young people can be prevented by age-appropriate, independent, online guidance. Additionally, when shown online how 'added value' by industry can generate consumer harms as free market 'externalities', and how obesogenic 'Big Food' production and distribution incur environmental and ethical costs, young people make lasting behavioural changes that attenuate weight gain. This evidence offers a novel approach to obesity prevention, handing the initiative to young people themselves and supporting them with evidence-based methods to develop, propagate and 'own' social movements that can simultaneously address the geopolitical concerns of youth and obesity prevention.

Life Expectancy of White and Non-White Elite Heavyweight Boxers

BACKGROUND

In post-industrial countries, ethnic minorities suffer poorer health and premature deaths. The present study examined ethnic differences in life expectancy and related features among elite heavyweight boxers.

METHODS

Dates of birth and death, anthropometry, and championship years were gathered from media archives for champions and challengers (never been a champion) between years 1889 and 2019. Cox regression adjusted for age at contest, nationality, BMI, champion/challenger status, and number of contests was used to assess survival.

RESULTS

All 237 boxers, 83 champions (37.3% whites) and 154 challengers (61.0% whites), who contested for heavyweight championships were identified. By 2019, 110 (75 whites, 34 non-whites) were known to have died. Non-white boxers died at an earlier age than whites boxers (mean ± SD = 59.8 ± 14.2 years versus 67.3 ± 16.4 years, p = 0.018) and had shorter survival: HR = 2.13 (95% CI = 1.4-3.3). Among non-white boxers, deaths were higher from neurological disorders: OR = 8.2 (95% CI = 1.3-13.5) and accidents: OR = 15.1 (95% CI = 2.3-98.2), while death from natural causes was lower: OR = 0.2 (95% CI = 0.03-0.8). After boxing careers, fewer non-white boxers had non-manual jobs (34.4% versus 71.8%) than manual (34.4% versus 19.7%) or were unemployed (28.1% versus 2.8%). Reported substance abuse was similar across ethnicity (8.0% versus 8.8%) but conviction rates were higher among non-white boxers (17.6%) than white (1.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with white boxers, non-white boxers tend to die younger with excess neurological and accidental deaths, and they have lower social positions in later life. Sporting authorities should reappraise the wisdom of permitting head injuries in sport and monitor and support the health and wellbeing of sports men and women after retirement.

Secular trends in adiposity and musculoskeletal dimensions of elite heavyweight boxers between 1889 and 2019

Purpose

With improving nutrition and health, athletes have grown taller and heavier over the past century. Since there is no weight restriction in the heavyweight class, secular changes in anthropometric measurements of heavyweight boxers may mirror those of contemporary general populations.

Objectives

We aimed to (1) examine secular trends in adiposity and musculoskeletal measurements in heavyweight boxers, (2) determine anthropometric differences between champions and unsuccessful challengers.

Methods

Detailed demographics taken at time of contest (first official World Championship to current contest: 1889–2019) were collected from media archives.

Results

All 237 boxers (83 champions, 154 challengers) contesting a recognised heavyweight World Championships were identified. They had mean (± SD) age = 28.9 ± 4.1 years, height = 187.3 ± 6.5 cm, reach = 195.2 ± 9.4 cm, weight = 97.5 ± 11.5 kg, BMI = 27.8 ± 2.4 kg/m2 and waist = 87.9 ± 6.2 cm. Contest years explained 25.9% (p < 0.001) of the variance in BMI for champions and 30.9% (p < 0.001) for challengers, 9.1% (p < 0.071) in WC for champions and 19.9% (p < 0.001) for challengers. Contest years correlated with height (r = 0.531, p < 0.001), reach (r = 0.341, p < 0.001), weight (r = 0.603, p < 0.001) and BMI (r = 0.370, p = 0.001) among all documented boxers, and with waist only in challengers (r = 0.349, p < 0.001) but not in champions (r = 0.078, p = 0.509). Compared with challengers, champions had greater stature by + 3.4 cm (p < 0.001), reach + 3.6 cm (p = 0.005) and weight + 3.7 kg (p = 0.017), with similar BMI and waist. Champions had larger biceps and forearms but did not differ from challengers in other musculoskeletal dimensions.

Conclusions

Over 130 years elite heavyweight boxers have increased in size (BMI) and reach but waists in champions have remained static. Being heavier, taller with longer and bigger arms, but with similar in BMI and waist, appear to be differentiating factors between champions and challengers.

Impacts of carbohydrate-restricted diets on micronutrient intakes and status: A systematic review

A systematic review of published evidence on micronutrient intake/status with carbohydrate-restricted diets (CRD) was conducted in Web of Science, Medline, Embase, Scopus, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov up to October 2018. We identified 10 studies: seven randomized controlled trials (RCTs) ("Atkins"-style, n = 5; "Paleolithic" diets, n = 2), two Atkins-style noncontrolled trials and one cross-sectional study. Prescribed carbohydrate varied 4% to 34% of energy intake. Only one noncontrolled trial prescribed multivitamin supplements. Dietary intakes/status were reported over 2 to 104 weeks, with weight losses from 2 to 9 kg. No diagnoses of deficiency were reported. Intakes of thiamine, folate, magnesium, calcium, iron, and iodine all decreased significantly (-10% to -70% from baseline) with any CRD types. Atkins diet trials (n = 6; 4%-34%E carbohydrate) showed inconsistent changes in vitamin A, E, and β-carotene intakes, while a single "Paleolithic" diet trial (28%E carbohydrate) reported increases in these micronutrients. One other "Paleolithic" diet (30%E carbohydrate) reported a rise in moderate iodine deficiency from 15% to 73% after 6 months. In conclusion, few studies have assessed the impacts of CRD on micronutrients. Studies with different designs point towards reductions in several vitamins and minerals, with potential risk of micronutrient inadequacies. Trial reporting standards are expected to include analysis of micronutrient intake/status. Micronutrients in foods and/or supplements should be considered when designing, prescribing or following CRDs.

Associations of BMI, waist circumference, body fat, and skeletal muscle with type 2 diabetes in adults

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is known to be associated with high BMI and waist circumference (WC). These measures do not discriminate well between skeletal muscle (SM) and body fat (BF), which may have opposite influences.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of population-based data from 58,128 aged 18-85 yrs from Scottish Health Surveys (2003, 2008-2011) and Health Surveys for England (2003-2006, 2008-2013), excluding pregnant women and insulin-treated diabetes. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of known T2D, and of screened HbA1c > 48 mmol/mol (> 6.5%), with sex-specific quintiles of BMI, WC, and BF% and SM% estimated by validated anthropometric equations, adjusted for age, sex, smoking, ethnicity, country, and survey year.

RESULTS

As expected, ORs for having known T2D rose with quintiles of BMI (1, 1.5, 2.3, 3.1, and 6.5) and WC (1, 1.8, 2.5, 3.5, and 8.7). Compared to the lowest BF% quintile, OR for having T2D in highest BF% quintile was 11.1 (95% CI = 8.4-14.6). Compared to the highest SM% quintile, OR for having T2D in lowest SM% quintile was 2.0 (1.7-2.4). Of 72 adults with T2D/HbA1c > 6.5% in the lowest quintile of BF%, 27 (37.5%) were in quintile 1 of SM%. Similar patterns of OR were observed for having HbA1c > 6.5% in those without known T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimated BF% associates strongly with T2D. Low SM% also has a significant association, suggesting a neglected aspect of aetiology within T2D. These two simple measures with biological relevance, available from data collected in most health surveys, may be more useful than the purely statistical terms BMI.

Type 2 diabetes remission: economic evaluation of the DiRECT/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme within a primary care randomized controlled trial

AIM

The Counterweight-Plus weight management programme achieved 46% remission of Type 2 diabetes at 1 year in the DiRECT trial. We estimated the implementation costs of the Counterweight-Plus programme and its 1-year cost-effectiveness in terms of diabetes remission, compared with usual care, from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective.

METHODS

Within-trial total costs included programme set-up and running costs (practitioner appointment visits, low-energy formula diet sachets and training), oral anti-diabetes and anti-hypertensive medications, and healthcare contacts. Total costs were calculated for aggregated resource use for each participant and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were based on 1000 non-parametric bootstrap iterations.

RESULTS

One-year programme costs under trial conditions were estimated at £1137 per participant (95% CI £1071, £1205). The intervention led to a significant cost-saving of £120 (95% CI £78, £163) for the oral anti-diabetes drugs and £14 (95% CI £7.9, £22) for anti-hypertensive medications compared with the control. Deducting the cost-savings of all healthcare contacts from the intervention cost resulted an incremental cost of £982 (95% CI £732, £1258). Cost per 1 year of diabetes remission was £2359 (95% CI £1668, £3250).

CONCLUSIONS

Remission of Type 2 diabetes within 1-year can be achieved at a cost below the annual cost of diabetes (including complications). Providing a reasonable proportion of remissions can be maintained over time, with multiple medical gains expected, as well as immediate social benefits, there is a case for shifting resources within diabetes care budgets to offer support for people with Type 2 diabetes to attempt remission. (Clinical Trial Registry No.: ISRCTN03267836).

Predictive model of length of stay in hospital among older patients

BACKGROUND

Most National Health Service (NHS) hospital bed occupants are older patients because of their frequent admissions and prolonged length of stay (LOS). We evaluated demographic and clinical factors as predictors of LOS in a single NHS Trust and derived an equation to estimate LOS.

METHODS

Stepwise logistic and linear regressions were used to predict prolonged LOS (upper-quintile LOS > 17 days) and LOS respectively, from demographic factors and acute and pre-existing conditions.

RESULTS

Of 374 (men:women = 127:247) admitted patients (20% to orthogeriatric, 69% to general medical and 11% to surgical wards), median age of 85 years (IQR = 78-90), 77 had acute first hip fracture; 297 had previous hip fracture (median time since previous fracture = 2.4 years) and 21 (7.1%) had recurrent hip fracture, with median time since first fracture = 2.4 years. Median LOS was 6.5 days (IQR = 1.8-14.8), and 38 (10.2%) died after 4.8 days (IQR = 1.6-14.3). Prolonged LOS was associated with discharge to places other than usual residence: OR = 3.1 (95% CI 1.7-5.7), acute stroke: OR = 10.1 (3.7-26.7), acute first hip fractures: OR = 6.8 (3.1-14.8), recurrent hip fractures: OR = 9.5 (3.2-28.7), urinary tract infection/pneumonia: OR = 4.0 (2.1-8.0), other acute fractures: OR = 9.8 (3.0-32.3) and malignancy: OR = 15.0 (3.1-71.8). Predictive equation showed estimated LOS was 11.6 days for discharge to places other than usual residence, 15 days for pre-existing or acute stroke, 9-14 days for acute and recurrent hip fractures, infections, other acute fractures and malignancy; these factors together explained 32% of variability in LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

A useful estimate of outcome and LOS can be made by constructing a predictive equation from information on hospital admission, to provide evidence-based guidance for resource requirements and discharge planning.

Durability of a primary care-led weight-management intervention for remission of type 2 diabetes: 2-year results of the DiRECT open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The DiRECT trial assessed remission of type 2 diabetes during a primary care-led weight-management programme. At 1 year, 68 (46%) of 149 intervention participants were in remission and 36 (24%) had achieved at least 15 kg weight loss. The aim of this 2-year analysis is to assess the durability of the intervention effect.

METHODS

DiRECT is an open-label, cluster-randomised, controlled trial done at primary care practices in the UK. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated list to provide an integrated structured weight-management programme (intervention) or best-practice care in accordance with guidelines (control), with stratification for study site (Tyneside or Scotland) and practice list size (>5700 or ≤5700 people). Allocation was concealed from the study statisticians; participants, carers, and study research assistants were aware of allocation. We recruited individuals aged 20-65 years, with less than 6 years' duration of type 2 diabetes, BMI 27-45 kg/m², and not receiving insulin between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2016. The intervention consisted of withdrawal of antidiabetes and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal per day formula diet for 12-20 weeks), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and then structured support for weight-loss maintenance. The coprimary outcomes, analysed hierarchically in the intention-to-treat population at 24 months, were weight loss of at least 15 kg, and remission of diabetes, defined as HbA_1c less than 6·5% (48 mmol/mol) after withdrawal of antidiabetes drugs at baseline (remission was determined independently at 12 and 24 months). The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836, and follow-up is ongoing.

FINDINGS

The intention-to-treat population consisted of 149 participants per group. At 24 months, 17 (11%) intervention participants and three (2%) control participants had weight loss of at least 15 kg (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7·49, 95% CI 2·05 to 27·32; p=0·0023) and 53 (36%) intervention participants and five (3%) control participants had remission of diabetes (aOR 25·82, 8·25 to 80·84; p<0·0001). The adjusted mean difference between the control and intervention groups in change in bodyweight was -5·4 kg (95% CI -6·9 to -4·0; p<0·0001) and in HbA_1c was -4·8 mmol/mol (-8·3 to -1·4 [-0·44% (-0·76 to -0·13)]; p=0·0063), despite only 51 (40%) of 129 patients in the intervention group using anti-diabetes medication compared with 120 (84%) of 143 in the control group. In a post-hoc analysis of the whole study population, of those participants who maintained at least 10 kg weight loss (45 of 272 with data), 29 (64%) achieved remission; 36 (24%) of 149 participants in the intervention group maintained at least 10 kg weight loss. Serious adverse events were similar to those reported at 12 months, but were fewer in the intervention group than in the control group in the second year of the study (nine vs 22).

INTERPRETATION

The DiRECT programme sustained remissions at 24 months for more than a third of people with type 2 diabetes. Sustained remission was linked to the extent of sustained weight loss.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

Associations of body fat and skeletal muscle with hypertension

Hypertension is known to be associated with obesity, while its relationship to skeletal muscle, SM (SM; a marker of general health and body function), remains uncertain. We analyzed population-based data of 22 591 men (mean age: 51.6 ± 16.9 years) and 27 845 nonpregnant women (50.6 ± 16.9 years) from Scottish Health Surveys (2003, 2008-2011) and Health Surveys for England (2003-2006, 2008-2013) including 2595 non-insulin- and 536 insulin-treated diabetic patients. Compared with normotensive individuals (no hypertension history with normal systolic [SBP < 140 mm Hg] and diastolic blood pressure [DBP < 90 mm Hg]), percent body fat (BF%) was significantly higher and percent SM lower (P < 0.001) in undetected (no hypertension history with raised SBP ≥ 140 and/or DBP ≥ 90 mm Hg), controlled (hypertension history with normal BP), uncontrolled (hypertension history with raised BP), and untreated hypertension. The prevalences of hypertension within BF% quintiles were 11.8%, 24.8%, 41.4%, 56.8%, and 71.6% and SM% quintiles were 67.5%, 53.3%, 39.5%, 27.4%, and 18.5%. Compared to referent groups (lowest BF% quintile or highest SM% quintile), odds ratio (age, sex, smoking, ethnicity, country, survey year, and diabetes adjusted) for having all types of hypertension in the highest BF% quintile was 5.5 (95% confidence interval = 5.0-5.9) and lowest SM% quintile was 2.3 (2.2-2.5). Compared with those without diabetes, individuals with diabetes had a 2.3-fold-2.6-fold greater risk of hypertension, independent of confounding factors and BF% or SM%. The associations of hypertension with BF% were higher than those with body mass index (BMI). In conclusion, both BF and SM should be considered when analyzing results from health surveys, rather than relying on BMI which does not discriminate between the two.

Remission of Human Type 2 Diabetes Requires Decrease in Liver and Pancreas Fat Content but Is Dependent upon Capacity for β Cell Recovery

The Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial reported return and persistence of non-diabetic blood glucose control in 46% of people with type 2 diabetes of up to 6 years duration. Detailed metabolic studies were performed on a subgroup (intervention, n = 64; control, n = 26). In the intervention group, liver fat content decreased (16.0% ± 1.3% to 3.1% ± 0.5%, p < 0.0001) immediately after weight loss. Similarly, plasma triglyceride and pancreas fat content decreased whether or not glucose control normalized. Recovery of first-phase insulin response (0.04[-0.05-0.32] to 0.11[0.0005-0.51] nmol/min/m², p < 0.0001) defined those who returned to non-diabetic glucose control and this was durable at 12 months (0.11[0.005-0.81] nmol/min/m², p = 0.0001). Responders were similar to non-responders at baseline but had shorter diabetes duration (2.7 ± 0.3 versus 3.8 ± 0.4 years; p = 0.02). This study demonstrates that β cell ability to recover long-term function persists after diagnosis, changing the previous paradigm of irreversible loss of β cell function in type 2 diabetes.