Changing climate and reorganized species interactions modify community responses to climate variability

While an array of ecological mechanisms has been shown to stabilize natural community dynamics, how the effectiveness of these mechanisms-including both their direction (stabilizing vs. destabilizing) and strength-shifts under a changing climate remains unknown. Using a 35-y dataset (1985 to 2019) from a desert stream in central Arizona (USA), we found that as annual mean air temperature rose 1°C and annual mean precipitation reduced by 40% over the last two decades, macroinvertebrate communities experienced dramatic changes, from relatively stable states during the first 15 y of this study to wildly fluctuating states highly sensitive to climate variability in the last 10 y. Asynchronous species responses to climatic variability, the primary mechanism historically undergirding community stability, greatly weakened. The emerging climate regime-specifically, concurrent warming and prolonged multiyear drought-resulted in community-wide synchronous responses and reduced taxa richness. Diversity loss and new establishment of competitors reorganized species interactions. Unlike manipulative experiments that often suggest stabilizing roles of species interactions, we found that reorganized species interactions switched from stabilizing to destabilizing influences, further amplifying community fluctuations. Our study provides evidence of climate change-induced modifications of mechanisms underpinning long-term community stability, resulting in an overall destabilizing effect.

Interdependence of social-ecological-technological systems in Phoenix, Arizona: consequences of an extreme precipitation event

Complex adaptive systems - such as critical infrastructures (CI) - are defined by their vast, multi-level interactions and emergent behaviors, but this elaborate web of interactions often conceals relationships. For instance, CI is often reduced to technological components, ignoring that social and ecological components are also embedded, leading to unintentional consequences from disturbance events. Analysis of CI as social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) can support integrated decision-making and increase infrastructure's capacity for resilience to climate change. We assess the impacts of an extreme precipitation event in Phoenix, AZ to identify pathways of disruption and feedback loops across SETS as presented in an illustrative causal loop diagram, developed through semi-structured interviews with researchers and practitioners and cross-validated with a literature review. The causal loop diagram consists of 19 components resulting in hundreds of feedback loops and cascading failures, with surface runoff, infiltration, and water bodies as well as power, water, and transportation infrastructures appearing to have critical roles in maintaining system services. We found that pathways of disruptions highlight potential weak spots within the system that could benefit from climate adaptation, and feedback loops may serve as potential tools to divert failure at the root cause. This method of convergence research shows potential as a useful tool to illustrate a broader perspective of urban systems and address the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the Anthropocene.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43065-023-00085-6.

A global horizon scan for urban evolutionary ecology

Research on the evolutionary ecology of urban areas reveals how human-induced evolutionary changes affect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In a rapidly urbanizing world imposing many selective pressures, a time-sensitive goal is to identify the emergent issues and research priorities that affect the ecology and evolution of species within cities. Here, we report the results of a horizon scan of research questions in urban evolutionary ecology submitted by 100 interdisciplinary scholars. We identified 30 top questions organized into six themes that highlight priorities for future research. These research questions will require methodological advances and interdisciplinary collaborations, with continued revision as the field of urban evolutionary ecology expands with the rapid growth of cities.

Denitrification and DNRA in Urban Accidental Wetlands in Phoenix, Arizona

Denitrification and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) both require low oxygen and high organic carbon conditions common in wetland ecosystems. Denitrification permanently removes nitrogen from the ecosystem as a gas while DNRA recycles nitrogen within the ecosystem via production of ammonium. The relative prevalence of denitrification versus DNRA has implications for the fate of nitrate in ecosystems. Unplanned and unmanaged urban accidental wetlands in the Salt River channel near downtown Phoenix, Arizona, USA receive high nitrate relative to non-urban wetlands and have a high capacity for denitrification, but unknown capacity for DNRA. We conducted in-situ push-pull tests with isotopically labelled nitrate to measure denitrification and DNRA rates in three of the dominant vegetative patch types in these urban accidental wetlands. DNRA accounted for between 2 and 40% of nitrate reduction (DNRA plus denitrification) with the highest rates measured in patches of Ludwigia peploides compared to Typha spp. and non-vegetated patches. The wetland patches were similar with respect to dissolved organic carbon concentration but may have differed in carbon lability or strength of reducing conditions due to a combination of litter decomposition and oxygen supply via diffusion and aerenchyma. The ratio of DNRA to denitrification was negatively correlated with nitrate concentration, indicating that DNRA may become a more important pathway for nitrate attenuation at low nitrate concentration. Although DNRA was generally lower than denitrification, this pathway was an important component of nitrate attenuation within certain patches in these unmanaged urban accidental wetlands.

Socio-eco-evolutionary dynamics in cities

Cities are uniquely complex systems regulated by interactions and feedbacks between nature and human society. Characteristics of human society-including culture, economics, technology and politics-underlie social patterns and activity, creating a heterogeneous environment that can influence and be influenced by both ecological and evolutionary processes. Increasing research on urban ecology and evolutionary biology has coincided with growing interest in eco-evolutionary dynamics, which encompasses the interactions and reciprocal feedbacks between evolution and ecology. Research on both urban evolutionary biology and eco-evolutionary dynamics frequently focuses on contemporary evolution of species that have potentially substantial ecological-and even social-significance. Still, little work fully integrates urban evolutionary biology and eco-evolutionary dynamics, and rarely do researchers in either of these fields fully consider the role of human social patterns and processes. Because cities are fundamentally regulated by human activities, are inherently interconnected and are frequently undergoing social and economic transformation, they represent an opportunity for ecologists and evolutionary biologists to study urban "socio-eco-evolutionary dynamics." Through this new framework, we encourage researchers of urban ecology and evolution to fully integrate human social drivers and feedbacks to increase understanding and conservation of ecosystems, their functions and their contributions to people within and outside cities.

The Complexity of Urban Eco-evolutionary Dynamics

Urbanization is changing Earth's ecosystems by altering the interactions and feedbacks between the fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain life. Humans in cities alter the eco-evolutionary play by simultaneously changing both the actors and the stage on which the eco-evolutionary play takes place. Urbanization modifies land surfaces, microclimates, habitat connectivity, ecological networks, food webs, species diversity, and species composition. These environmental changes can lead to changes in phenotypic, genetic, and cultural makeup of wild populations that have important consequences for ecosystem function and the essential services that nature provides to human society, such as nutrient cycling, pollination, seed dispersal, food production, and water and air purification. Understanding and monitoring urbanization-induced evolutionary changes is important to inform strategies to achieve sustainability. In the present article, we propose that understanding these dynamics requires rigorous characterization of urbanizing regions as rapidly evolving, tightly coupled human–natural systems. We explore how the emergent properties of urbanization affect eco-evolutionary dynamics across space and time. We identify five key urban drivers of change—habitat modification, connectivity, heterogeneity, novel disturbances, and biotic interactions—and highlight the direct consequences of urbanization-driven eco-evolutionary change for nature's contributions to people. Then, we explore five emerging complexities—landscape complexity, urban discontinuities, socio-ecological heterogeneity, cross-scale interactions, legacies and time lags—that need to be tackled in future research. We propose that the evolving metacommunity concept provides a powerful framework to study urban eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Nature-based approaches to managing climate change impacts in cities

Managing and adapting to climate change in urban areas will become increasingly important as urban populations grow, especially because unique features of cities amplify climate change impacts. High impervious cover exacerbates impacts of climate warming through urban heat island effects and of heavy rainfall by magnifying runoff and flooding. Concentration of human settlements along rivers and coastal zones increases exposure of people and infrastructure to climate change hazards, often disproportionately affecting those who are least prepared. Nature-based strategies (NBS), which use living organisms, soils and sediments, and/or landscape features to reduce climate change hazards, hold promise as being more flexible, multi-functional and adaptable to an uncertain and non-stationary climate future than traditional approaches. Nevertheless, future research should address the effectiveness of NBS for reducing climate change impacts and whether they can be implemented at scales appropriate to climate change hazards and impacts. Further, there is a need for accurate and comprehensive cost-benefit analyses that consider disservices and co-benefits, relative to grey alternatives, and how costs and benefits are distributed across different communities. NBS are most likely to be effective and fair when they match the scale of the challenge, are implemented with input from diverse voices and are appropriate to specific social, cultural, ecological and technological contexts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Traversing the Wasteland: A Framework for Assessing Ecological Threats to Drylands

Drylands cover 41% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, play a critical role in global ecosystem function, and are home to over two billion people. Like other biomes, drylands face increasing pressure from global change, but many of these ecosystems are close to tipping points, which, if crossed, can lead to abrupt transitions and persistent degraded states. Their limited but variable precipitation, low soil fertility, and low productivity have given rise to a perception that drylands are wastelands, needing societal intervention to bring value to them. Negative perceptions of drylands synergistically combine with conflicting sociocultural values regarding what constitutes a threat to these ecosystems. In the present article, we propose a framework for assessing threats to dryland ecosystems and suggest we must also combat the negative perceptions of drylands in order to preserve the ecosystem services that they offer.

Global change-driven effects on dissolved organic matter composition: Implications for food webs of northern lakes

Northern ecosystems are experiencing some of the most dramatic impacts of global change on Earth. Rising temperatures, hydrological intensification, changes in atmospheric acid deposition and associated acidification recovery, and changes in vegetative cover are resulting in fundamental changes in terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages. The effects of global change are readily observed in alterations in the supply of dissolved organic matter (DOM)-the messenger between terrestrial and lake ecosystems-with potentially profound effects on the structure and function of lakes. Northern terrestrial ecosystems contain substantial stores of organic matter and filter or funnel DOM, affecting the timing and magnitude of DOM delivery to surface waters. This terrestrial DOM is processed in streams, rivers, and lakes, ultimately shifting its composition, stoichiometry, and bioavailability. Here, we explore the potential consequences of these global change-driven effects for lake food webs at northern latitudes. Notably, we provide evidence that increased allochthonous DOM supply to lakes is overwhelming increased autochthonous DOM supply that potentially results from earlier ice-out and a longer growing season. Furthermore, we assess the potential implications of this shift for the nutritional quality of autotrophs in terms of their stoichiometry, fatty acid composition, toxin production, and methylmercury concentration, and therefore, contaminant transfer through the food web. We conclude that global change in northern regions leads not only to reduced primary productivity but also to nutritionally poorer lake food webs, with discernible consequences for the trophic web to fish and humans.

Mixed method approach to assess atmospheric nitrogen deposition in arid and semi-arid ecosystems

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems (aridlands) cover a third of Earth's terrestrial surface and contain organisms that are sensitive to low level atmospheric pollutants. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) inputs to aridlands are likely to cause changes in plant community composition, fire frequency, and carbon cycling and storage. However, few studies have documented long-term rates of atmospheric N inputs in aridlands because dry deposition is technically difficult to quantify, and extensive sampling is needed to capture fluxes with spatially and temporally heterogeneous rainfall patterns. Here, we quantified long-term spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic N deposition in protected aridland ecosystems across an extensive urban-rural gradient using multiple sampling methods. We compared long-term rates of N deposition from ion-exchange resin (IER) collectors (bulk and throughfall, 2006-2015), wet-dry bucket collectors (2006-2015), and dry deposition from the inferential method using passive samplers (2010-2012). From mixed approaches with IER collectors and inferential methods, we determined that 7.2 ± 0.4 kgNha^-1y^-1 is deposited to protected Sonoran Desert within metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona and 6.1 ± 0.3 kgNha^-1y^-1 in nearby desert ecosystems. Regional scale models overestimated deposition rates for our sampling period by 60% and misidentified hot spots of deposition across the airshed. By contrast, the easy-deployment IER throughfall collectors showed minimal spatial variation across the urban-rural gradient and underestimated deposition fluxes by 54%, largely because of underestimated dry deposition in throughfall. However, seasonal sampling of the IER collectors over 10 years allowed us to capture significant seasonal variation in N deposition and the importance of precipitation timing. These results, derived from the longest, spatially and temporally explicit dataset in drylands, highlight the need for long-term, mixed methods to estimate atmospheric nutrient enrichment to aridlands in a rapidly changing world.

Carbon lost and carbon gained: a study of vegetation and carbon trade-offs among diverse land uses in Phoenix, Arizona

Human modification and management of urban landscapes drastically alters vegetation and soils, thereby altering carbon (C) storage and rates of net primary productivity (NPP). Complex social and ecological processes drive vegetation cover in cities, leading to heterogeneity in C dynamics depending on regional climate, land use, and land cover. Recent work has demonstrated homogenization in ecological processes within human-dominated landscapes (the urban convergence hypothesis) in soils and biotic communities. However, a lack of information on vegetation in arid land cities has hindered an understanding of potential C storage and NPP convergence across a diversity of ecosystem types. We estimated C storage and NPP of trees and shrubs for six different land-use types in the arid metropolis of Phoenix, Arizona, USA, and compared those results to native desert ecosystems, as well as other urban and natural systems around the world. Results from Phoenix do not support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, C storage in urban trees and shrubs was 42% of that found in desert vegetation, while NPP was only 20% of the total NPP estimated for comparable natural ecosystems. Furthermore, the overall estimates of C storage and NPP associated with urban trees in the CAP ecosystem were much lower (8-63%) than the other cities included in this analysis. We also found that C storage (175.25-388.94 g/m² ) and NPP (8.07-15.99 g·m^-2 ·yr^-1 ) were dominated by trees in the urban residential land uses, while in the desert, shrubs were the primary source for pools (183.65 g/m² ) and fluxes (6.51 g·m^-2 ·yr^-1 ). These results indicate a trade-off between shrubs and trees in arid ecosystems, with shrubs playing a major role in overall C storage and NPP in deserts and trees serving as the dominant C pool in cities. Our research supports current literature that calls for the development of spatially explicit and standardized methods for analyzing C dynamics associated with vegetation in urbanizing areas.

Assessment of regional variation in streamflow responses to urbanization and the persistence of physiography

Aquatic ecosystems are sensitive to the modification of hydrologic regimes, experiencing declines in stream health as the streamflow regime is altered during urbanization. This study uses streamflow records to quantify the type and magnitude of hydrologic changes across urbanization gradients in nine U.S. cities (Atlanta, GA, Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, Detroit, MI, Raleigh, NC, St. Paul, MN, Pittsburgh, PA, Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR) in two physiographic settings. Results indicate similar development trajectories among urbanization gradients, but heterogeneity in the type and magnitude of hydrologic responses to this apparently uniform urban pattern. Similar urban patterns did not confer similar hydrologic function. Study watersheds in landscapes with level slopes and high soil permeability had less frequent high-flow events, longer high-flow durations, lower flashiness response, and lower flow maxima compared to similarly developed watersheds in landscape with steep slopes and low soil permeability. Our results suggest that physical characteristics associated with level topography and high water-storage capacity buffer the severity of hydrologic changes associated with urbanization. Urbanization overlain upon a diverse set of physical templates creates multiple pathways toward hydrologic impairment; therefore, we caution against the use of the urban homogenization framework in examining geophysically dominated processes.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period - a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI - high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.

Denitrification mitigates N flux through the stream-floodplain complex of a desert city

The Indian Bend Wash (IBW) flood-control project relies on a greenbelt to carry floods through Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. The greenbelt is characterized by a chain of shallow artificial lakes in a larger floodplain of irrigated turf, which has been protected from encroaching urban development. As such, this urban stream-floodplain complex can be divided into three subsystems: artificial lakes, channelized stream segments, and floodplain. We conducted experiments to evaluate which, if any, of these subsystems were important sites of denitrification, and to explore factors controlling denitrification rates. Denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) bioassays were conducted on sediments from eight lake and six stream segments as well as soil samples from eight floodplain transects. Mass-specific potential denitrification rates were significantly higher in lakes than in streams or floodplains. Nutrient limitation bioassays revealed that nitrate (NO3-) limited denitrification in lake sediments, a surprising finding given that NO3(-)-rich groundwater additions frequently raised lake NO3(-) concentration above 1 mg N/L. Experiments on intact lake cores suggested that denitrification was limited by the rate NO3(-) diffused into sediments, rather than its availability in overlying water. Floodplain denitrification was limited by water content, not NO3(-) or C, and irrigation of soils stimulated denitrification. We constructed a N budget for the IBW stream-floodplain complex based on our experimental results. We found that both lakes and floodplains removed large quantities of N, with denitrification removing 261 and 133 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) from lake sediments and floodplain soils, respectively, indicating that lakes are hotspots for denitrification. Nevertheless, because floodplain area was >4.5 times that of lakes, floodplain soils removed nearly 2.5 times as much N as lake sediments. Given the desert's low annual precipitation, a finding that floodplain soils are active sites of denitrification might seem implausible; however, irrigation is common in urban landscapes, and it elevated annual denitrification in IBW. Based on our results, we conclude that construction of artificial lakes created hotspots while application of irrigation water created hot moments for denitrification in the stream-floodplain complex, demonstrating that management decisions can improve the ability of urban streams to provide critical ecosystem services like N retention.

Ecosystem response to nutrient enrichment across an urban airshed in the Sonoran Desert

Rates of nitrogen (N) deposition have increased in arid and semiarid ecosystems, but few studies have examined the impacts of long-term N enrichment on ecological processes in deserts. We conducted a multiyear, nutrient-addition study within 15 Sonoran Desert sites across the rapidly growing metropolitan area of Phoenix, Arizona (USA). We hypothesized that desert plants and soils would be sensitive to N enrichment, but that these effects would vary among functional groups that differ in terms of physiological responsiveness, proximity to surface N sources, and magnitude of carbon (C) or water limitation. Inorganic N additions augmented net potential nitrification in soils, moreso than net potential N mineralization, highlighting the important role of nitrifying microorganisms in the nitrate economy of drylands. Winter annual plants were also responsive to nutrient additions, exhibiting a climate-driven cascade of resource limitation, from little to no production in seasons of low rainfall (winter 2006 and 2007), to moderate N limitation with average precipitation (winter 2009), to limitation by both N and P in a season of above-normal rainfall (winter 2008). Herbaceous production is a potentially important mechanism of N retention in arid ecosystems, capable of immobilizing an amount equal to or greater than that deposited annually to soils in this urban airshed. However, interannual variability in precipitation and abiotic processes that limit the incorporation of detrital organic matter into soil pools may limit this role over the long term. In contrast, despite large experimental additions of N and P over four years, growth of Larrea tridentata, the dominant perennial plant of the Sonoran Desert, was unresponsive to nutrient enrichment, even during wet years. Finally, there did not appear to be strong ecological interactions between nutrient addition and location relative to the city, despite the nearby activity of nearly four million people, perhaps due to loss or transfer pathways that limit long-term N enrichment of ecosystems by the urban atmosphere.

Nutrient variation in an urban lake chain and its consequences for phytoplankton production

In the Central Arizona-Phoenix (CAP) ecosystem, managers divert mixed stream water and groundwater to maintain an artificial lake chain in Indian Bend Wash (IBW), a historically flashy, ephemeral, desert stream. Nutrient concentrations in the CAP ecosystem's groundwater, stream water, and floodwater differ: stream water has low concentrations of both inorganic N and P, while groundwater is low in inorganic P but rich in nitrate (NO(3)(-)). Consequently, groundwater contribution drives inorganic N concentrations in the lake chain. In contrast, floodwater typically has high P concentrations while remaining low in N. Thus we expected N and P concentrations in IBW lakes to vary with the mix of water flowing through them. Elevated NO(3)(-) and low inorganic P concentrations were predicted when groundwater pumping was pronounced and this prediction was supported. We hypothesized that these predictable changes in water chemistry would affect nutrient limitation of phytoplankton. Laboratory nutrient-addition bioassays demonstrated that phytoplankton growth was P-limited throughout the summer of 2003 when N/P was high. However, after a late-season flood drove N/P below 31:1, the expected threshold between N and P limitation, N limitation was observed. Our results indicate that effects of floods, the preeminent historic drivers of Sonoran Desert stream biogeochemistry, are mitigated in urban ecosystems by decisions about which spigots to turn. Consequently, nutrient limitation of urban streams is driven as much by management decisions as by natural hydrologic variation.

Atmospheric deposition of carbon and nutrients across an arid metropolitan area

Urbanization is increasing rapidly in semi-arid environments and is predicted to alter atmospheric deposition of nutrients and pollutants to cities as well as to ecosystems downwind. We examined patterns of wet and coarse dry deposition chemistry over a five-year period at 7 sites across the Central Arizona-Phoenix (CAP) study area, one of two urban sites within the National Science Foundation's Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. Wet and dry deposition of organic carbon (oC) were significantly elevated in the urban core; in contrast, mean annual wet and dry fluxes of nitrogen (N) were low (<6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)) compared to previous estimates and did not differ significantly among sites. Wet deposition of sulfate (SO(4)2-) was high across CAP (mean 1.39 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) as S) and represented the dominant anion in rainfall. Dry deposition rates did not show strong seasonal trends with the exception of oC, which was 3-fold higher in winter than in summer; ammonium (NH4+) deposition was high but more variable. Dry deposition of NO3- and oC was strongly correlated with particulate base cations and dust-derived soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), suggesting that urban-derived dust is scrubbing the atmosphere of acidic gases and entrained particles and increasing local deposition. Differences between measured and predicted rates of dry N deposition to the urban core may be explained by incomplete collection of gas phase N on surrogate deposition surfaces in this hot and arid environment. The extent of urban enhancement of cations and oC inputs to desert ecosystems appears to be restricted to the urbanized metropolitan area rather than extending far downwind, although a low number of sites make it difficult to resolve this spatial pattern. Nevertheless, wet and dry inputs may be important for biogeochemical cycles in nutrient and carbon-poor desert ecosystems within and near arid cities.

Hierarchical Bayesian scaling of soil properties across urban, agricultural, and desert ecosystems

Ecologists increasingly use plot-scale data to inform research and policy related to regional and global environmental change. For soil chemistry research, scaling from the plot to the region is especially difficult due to high spatial variability at all scales. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model of plot-scale soil nutrient pools to predict storage of soil organic carbon (oC), inorganic carbon (iC), total nitrogen (N), and available phosphorus (avP) in a 7962-km2 area including the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan area and its desert and agricultural surroundings. The Bayesian approach was compared to a traditional approach that multiplied mean values for urban mesic residential, urban xeric residential, nonresidential urban, agricultural, and desert areas by the aerial coverage of each land-use type. Both approaches suggest that oC, N, and avP are correlated with each other and are higher (in g/m2) in mesic residential and agricultural areas than in deserts or xeric residential areas. In addition to traditional biophysical variables, cultural variables related to impervious surface cover, tree cover, and turfgrass cover were significant in regression models predicting the regional distribution of soil properties. We estimate that 1140 Gg of oC have accumulated in human-dominated soils of this region, but a significant portion of this new C has a very short mean residence time in mesic yards and agricultural soils. For N, we estimate that 130 Gg have accumulated in soils, which explains a significant portion of "missing N" observed in the regional N budget. Predictions for iC differed between the approaches because the Bayesian approach predicted iC as a function of elevation while the traditional approach employed only land use. We suggest that Bayesian scaling enables models that are flexible enough to accommodate the diverse factors controlling soil chemistry in desert, urban, and agricultural ecosystems and, thus, may represent an important tool for ecological scaling that spans land-use types. Urban planners and city managers attempting to reduce C emissions and N pollution should consider ways that landscape choices and impervious surface cover affect city-wide soil C, N, and P storage.

Hierarchical regulation of nitrogen export from urban catchments: interactions of storms and landscapes

In urban catchments of arid central Arizona, we investigate how the export of mineral and organic nitrogen (N) in storm runoff is regulated by interactions between local landscape characteristics and broader scale storm features. First, we test whether N export is more a function of (1) processes that affect N concentration in runoff or (2) the propensity of the catchment to convey rainfall as runoff. With data pooled across catchments, the mass of N in export (load) is determined by processes regulating runoff N concentration. There are exceptions when catchments are examined individually, where N load from some catchments is determined by the hydrologic responsiveness of the catchment. Second, we investigate the relationship between N export and catchment features. Loads per catchment area were greater from more impervious catchments, probably because impervious catchments held more N in a mobilizable phase and conveyed more rainfall as overland flow. Loads per area were lower from larger catchments, possibly owing to more N-retention hot spots in larger catchments. Catchments with the greatest N exports were those with commercial land use, and loads decreased as development became less prevalent or as residential replaced industrial land use. Third, we investigated how catchment features moderated direct responses of N export to storms. Export was less correlated with storm features in catchments that were larger, more pervious, and less industrial. Results support an "N build and flush" hypothesis, which purports that there is little biotic processing of N deposited to arid, urban surfaces with little organic matter. The rate and duration of deposition determine the size of the mobile N pool. Any amount of rainfall capable of generating overland flow would entrain nearly all mobilizable N and export it from the catchment. Nonetheless, these results suggest that, even with daunting seasonal and interannual variability in storm conditions, material export can be reduced by managing intrinsic catchment features.

A distinct urban biogeochemistry?

Most of the global human population lives in urban areas where biogeochemical cycles are controlled by complex interactions between society and the environment. Urban ecology is an emerging discipline that seeks to understand these interactions, and one of the grand challenges for urban ecologists is to develop models that encompass the myriad influences of people on biogeochemistry. We suggest here that existing models, developed primarily in unmanaged and agricultural ecosystems, work poorly in urban ecosystems because they do not include human biogeochemical controls such as impervious surface proliferation, engineered aqueous flow paths, landscaping choices, and human demographic trends. Incorporating these human controls into biogeochemical models will advance urban ecology and will require enhanced collaborations with engineers and social scientists.

Carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry and nitrogen cycling rates in streams

Stoichiometric analyses can be used to investigate the linkages between N and C cycles and how these linkages influence biogeochemistry at many scales, from components of individual ecosystems up to the biosphere. N-specific NH4+ uptake rates were measured in eight streams using short-term 15N tracer additions, and C to N ratios (C:N) were determined from living and non-living organic matter collected from ten streams. These data were also compared to previously published data compiled from studies of lakes, ponds, wetlands, forests, and tundra. There was a significant negative relationship between C:N and N-specific uptake rate; C:N could account for 41% of the variance in N-specific uptake rate across all streams, and the relationship held in five of eight streams. Most of the variation in N-specific uptake rate was contributed by detrital and primary producer compartments with large values of C:N and small values for N-specific uptake rate. In streams, particulate materials are not as likely to move downstream as dissolved N, so if N is cycling in a particulate compartment, N retention is likely to be greater. Together, these data suggest that N retention may depend in part on C:N of living and non-living organic matter in streams. Factors that alter C:N of stream ecosystem compartments, such as removal of riparian vegetation or N fertilization, may influence the amount of retention attributed to these ecosystem compartments by causing shifts in stoichiometry. Our analysis suggests that C:N of ecosystem compartments can be used to link N-cycling models across streams.

Merging aquatic and terrestrial perspectives of nutrient biogeochemistry

Although biogeochemistry is an integrative discipline, terrestrial and aquatic subdisciplines have developed somewhat independently of each other. Physical and biological differences between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems explain this history. In both aquatic and terrestrial biogeochemistry, key questions and concepts arise from a focus on nutrient limitation, ecosystem nutrient retention, and controls of nutrient transformations. Current understanding is captured in conceptual models for different ecosystem types, which share some features and diverge in other ways. Distinctiveness of subdisciplines has been appropriate in some respects and has fostered important advances in theory. On the other hand, lack of integration between aquatic and terrestrial biogeochemistry limits our ability to deal with biogeochemical phenomena across large landscapes in which connections between terrestrial and aquatic elements are important. Separation of the two approaches also has not served attempts to scale up or to estimate fluxes from large areas based on plot measurements. Understanding connectivity between the two system types and scaling up biogeochemical information will rely on coupled hydrologic and ecological models, and may be critical for addressing environmental problems associated with locally, regionally, and globally altered biogeochemical cycles.

Socioeconomics drive urban plant diversity

Spatial variation in plant diversity has been attributed to heterogeneity in resource availability for many ecosystems. However, urbanization has resulted in entire landscapes that are now occupied by plant communities wholly created by humans, in which diversity may reflect social, economic, and cultural influences in addition to those recognized by traditional ecological theory. Here we use data from a probability-based survey to explore the variation in plant diversity across a large metropolitan area using spatial statistical analyses that incorporate biotic, abiotic, and human variables. Our prediction for the city was that land use, along with distance from urban center, would replace the dominantly geomorphic controls on spatial variation in plant diversity in the surrounding undeveloped Sonoran desert. However, in addition to elevation and current and former land use, family income and housing age best explained the observed variation in plant diversity across the city. We conclude that a functional relationship, which we term the "luxury effect," may link human resource abundance (wealth) and plant diversity in urban ecosystems. This connection may be influenced by education, institutional control, and culture, and merits further study.