Impact of prevention in primary care on costs in primary and secondary care for people with serious mental illness

A largely unexplored part of the financial incentive for physicians to participate in preventive care is the degree to which they are the residual claimant from any resulting cost savings. We examine the impact of two preventive activities for people with serious mental illness (care plans and annual reviews of physical health) by English primary care practices on costs in these practices and in secondary care. Using panel two-part models to analyze patient-level data linked across primary and secondary care, we find that these preventive activities in the previous year are associated with cost reductions in the current quarter both in primary and secondary care. We estimate that there are large beneficial externalities for which the primary care physician is not the residual claimant: the cost savings in secondary care are 4.7 times larger than the cost savings in primary care. These activities are incentivized in the English National Health Service but the total financial incentives for primary care physicians to participate were considerably smaller than the total cost savings produced. This suggests that changes to the design of incentives to increase the marginal reward for conducting these preventive activities among patients with serious mental illness could have further increased welfare.

Measurement of Dark Ice-Ablator Mix in Inertial Confinement Fusion

We present measurements of ice-ablator mix at stagnation of inertially confined, cryogenically layered capsule implosions. An ice layer thickness scan with layers significantly thinner than used in ignition experiments enables us to investigate mix near the inner ablator interface. Our experiments reveal for the first time that the majority of atomically mixed ablator material is "dark" mix. It is seeded by the ice-ablator interface instability and located in the relatively cooler, denser region of the fuel assembly surrounding the fusion hot spot. The amount of dark mix is an important quantity as it is thought to affect both fusion fuel compression and burn propagation when it turns into hot mix as the burn wave propagates through the initially colder fuel region surrounding an igniting hot spot. We demonstrate a significant reduction in ice-ablator mix in the hot-spot boundary region when we increase the initial ice layer thickness.

Labor supply and informal care responses to health shocks within couples: Evidence from the UK

Shocks to health have been shown to reduce labor supply for the individual affected. Less is known about household self-insurance through a partner's response. Previous studies have presented inconclusive empirical evidence on the existence of a health-related Added Worker Effect, and results limited to labor and income responses. We use UK longitudinal data to investigate within households both the labor supply and informal care responses of an individual to the event of an acute health shock to their partner. Relying on the unanticipated timing of shocks, we combine Coarsened Exact Matching and Entropy Balancing algorithms with parametric analysis and exploit lagged outcomes to remove bias from observed confounders and time-invariant unobservables. We find no evidence of a health-related Added Worker Effect but a significant and sizable Informal Carer Effect. This holds irrespective of spousal labor market position or household financial status and ability to purchase formal care provision, suggesting that partners' substitute informal care provision for time devoted to leisure activities.

Exploring mental health disability gaps in the labour market: the UK experience during COVID-19

People with long-term mental health problems that affect their daily activities are a growing proportion of the UK working population and they have a particularly low employment rate. We analyse gaps in labour market outcomes between mental health disabled and non-disabled people during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. We also decompose the outcome gaps in order to explore the relative importance of different factors in explaining these gaps. Our results suggest that the employment effects of the pandemic for mental health disabled people may have been temporary. However, they were more likely to be away from work and/or working reduced hours than people without a disability. Workers with mental health disability were over-represented in part-time work and in caring, leisure and other service occupations, which were disproportionately affected by COVID-19 and the economic response. This is important new evidence on the contribution of segmentation and segregation in explaining the labour market position of people with mental health disability. The longer term effects of the pandemic were still not apparent at the end of our analysis period (2021:Q3), but the concentration of disabled workers in cyclically sensitive sectors and part-time work means that they will always be particularly vulnerable to economic downturns.

Cuts to local government spending, multimorbidity and health-related quality of life: A longitudinal ecological study in England

BACKGROUND

Population health has stagnated or is declining in many high-income countries. We analysed whether nationally administered austerity cuts in England were associated with prevalence of multimorbidity (individuals with two or more long-term conditions) and health-related quality of life.

METHODS

We conducted an observational, longitudinal study on 147 local authorities in England. We examined associations of changes in spending over time (2009/10-2017/18), in total and by budget line, with (i) prevalence of multimorbidity, 2+ conditions (2011/12-2017/18), and (ii) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L) score (2012/13-2016/17). We estimated linear, log-log regression models, incorporating local authority fixed-effects, time-varying demographic and socio-economic confounders, and time trends.

FINDINGS

All local authorities experienced real spending cuts, varying from 42% (Barking and Dagenham) to 0·3% (Sefton). A 1% cut in per capita total service expenditure was associated with a 0·10% (95% CI 0·03 to 0·16) increase in prevalence of multimorbidity. We found no association (0·003%; 95% CI -0·01 to 0·01) with health-related quality of life. By budget line, after controlling for other spending, a 1% cut in public health expenditure was associated with a 0·15% (95% CI 0·11 to 0·20) increase in prevalence of multimorbidity, and a 1% cut in adult social care expenditure was associated with a 0·01% (95% CI 0·002 to 0·02) decrease in average health-related quality of life.

INTERPRETATION

Fiscal austerity is associated with worse multimorbidity and health-related quality of life. Policymakers should consider the potential health consequences of local government expenditure cuts and knock-on effects for health systems.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council.

Does commuting mode choice impact health?

Governments around the world are encouraging people to switch away from sedentary modes of travel towards more active modes, including walking and cycling. The aim of these schemes is to improve population health and to reduce emissions. There is considerable evidence on the latter, but relatively little on the former. This paper investigates the impact of mode choice on physical and mental health. Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, we exploit changes in mode of commute to identify health outcome responses. Individuals who change modes are matched with those whose mode remains constant. Overall we find that mode switches affect both physical and mental health. When switching from car to active travel we see an increase in physical health for women and in mental health for both genders. In contrast, both men and women who switch from active travel to car are shown to experience a significant reduction in their physical health and health satisfaction, and a decline in their mental health when they change from active to public transport.

Record Energetics for an Inertial Fusion Implosion at NIF

Inertial confinement fusion seeks to create burning plasma conditions in a spherical capsule implosion, which requires efficiently absorbing the driver energy in the capsule, transferring that energy into kinetic energy of the imploding DT fuel and then into internal energy of the fuel at stagnation. We report new implosions conducted on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) with several improvements on recent work [Phys. Rev. Lett. 120, 245003 (2018)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.120.245003; Phys. Rev. E 102, 023210 (2020)PRESCM2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.102.023210]: larger capsules, thicker fuel layers to mitigate fuel-ablator mix, and new symmetry control via cross-beam energy transfer; at modest velocities, these experiments achieve record values for the implosion energetics figures of merit as well as fusion yield for a NIF experiment.

Evidence of Three-Dimensional Asymmetries Seeded by High-Density Carbon-Ablator Nonuniformity in Experiments at the National Ignition Facility

Inertial confinement fusion implosions must achieve high in-flight shell velocity, sufficient energy coupling between the hot spot and imploding shell, and high areal density (ρR=∫ρdr) at stagnation. Asymmetries in ρR degrade the coupling of shell kinetic energy to the hot spot and reduce the confinement of that energy. We present the first evidence that nonuniformity in the ablator shell thickness (∼0.5% of the total thickness) in high-density carbon experiments is a significant cause for observed 3D ρR asymmetries at the National Ignition Facility. These shell-thickness nonuniformities have significantly impacted some recent experiments leading to ρR asymmetries on the order of ∼25% of the average ρR and hot spot velocities of ∼100  km/s. This work reveals the origin of a significant implosion performance degradation in ignition experiments and places stringent new requirements on capsule thickness metrology and symmetry.

Multimorbidity combinations, costs of hospital care and potentially preventable emergency admissions in England: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with multimorbidities have the greatest healthcare needs and generate the highest expenditure in the health system. There is an increasing focus on identifying specific disease combinations for addressing poor outcomes. Existing research has identified a small number of prevalent "clusters" in the general population, but the limited number examined might oversimplify the problem and these may not be the ones associated with important outcomes. Combinations with the highest (potentially preventable) secondary care costs may reveal priority targets for intervention or prevention. We aimed to examine the potential of defining multimorbidity clusters for impacting secondary care costs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used national, Hospital Episode Statistics, data from all hospital admissions in England from 2017/2018 (cohort of over 8 million patients) and defined multimorbidity based on ICD-10 codes for 28 chronic conditions (we backfilled conditions from 2009/2010 to address potential undercoding). We identified the combinations of multimorbidity which contributed to the highest total current and previous 5-year costs of secondary care and costs of potentially preventable emergency hospital admissions in aggregate and per patient. We examined the distribution of costs across unique disease combinations to test the potential of the cluster approach for targeting interventions at high costs. We then estimated the overlap between the unique combinations to test potential of the cluster approach for targeting prevention of accumulated disease. We examined variability in the ranks and distributions across age (over/under 65) and deprivation (area level, deciles) subgroups and sensitivity to considering a smaller number of diseases. There were 8,440,133 unique patients in our sample, over 4 million (53.1%) were female, and over 3 million (37.7%) were aged over 65 years. No clear "high cost" combinations of multimorbidity emerged as possible targets for intervention. Over 2 million (31.6%) patients had 63,124 unique combinations of multimorbidity, each contributing a small fraction (maximum 3.2%) to current-year or 5-year secondary care costs. Highest total cost combinations tended to have fewer conditions (dyads/triads, most including hypertension) affecting a relatively large population. This contrasted with the combinations that generated the highest cost for individual patients, which were complex sets of many (6+) conditions affecting fewer persons. However, all combinations containing chronic kidney disease and hypertension, or diabetes and hypertension, made up a significant proportion of total secondary care costs, and all combinations containing chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and hypertension had the highest proportion of preventable emergency admission costs, which might offer priority targets for prevention of disease accumulation. The results varied little between age and deprivation subgroups and sensitivity analyses. Key limitations include availability of data only from hospitals and reliance on hospital coding of health conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that there are no clear multimorbidity combinations for a cluster-targeted intervention approach to reduce secondary care costs. The role of risk-stratification and focus on individual high-cost patients with interventions is particularly questionable for this aim. However, if aetiology is favourable for preventing further disease, the cluster approach might be useful for targeting disease prevention efforts with potential for cost-savings in secondary care.

Patterns of emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a spatial cross-sectional analysis of observational data

OBJECTIVES

To examine the spatial and temporal patterns of English general practices' emergency admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs).

DESIGN

Observational study of practice level annual hospital emergency admissions data for ACSCs for all English practices from 2004-2017.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients with an emergency admission to a National Health Service hospital in England who were registered with an English general practice.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Practice level age and gender indirectly standardised ratios (ISARs) for emergency admissions for ACSC.

RESULTS

In 2017, 41.8% of the total variation in ISARs across practices was between the 207 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) (the administrative unit for general practices) and 58.2% was across practices within CCGs. ACSC ISARs increased by 4.7% between 2004 and 2017, while those for conditions incentivised by the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) fell by 20%. Practice ISARs are persistent: practices with high rates in 2004 also had high rates in 2017. Standardising by deprivation as well as age and gender reduced the coefficient of variation of practice ISARs in 2017 by 22%.

CONCLUSIONS

There is persistent spatial pattern of emergency admissions for ACSC across England both within and across CCGs. We illustrate the reduction in ACSCs emergency admissions across the study period for conditions incentivised by the QOF but find that this was not accompanied by a reduction in variation in these admissions across practices. The observed spatial pattern persists when admission rates are standardised by deprivation. The persistence of spatial clusters of high emergency admissions for ACSCs within and across CCG boundaries suggests that policies to reduce potentially unwarranted variation should be targeted at practice level.

Trends in and drivers of healthcare expenditure in the English NHS: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

In England, rises in healthcare expenditure consistently outpace growth in both GDP and total public expenditure. To ensure the National Health Service (NHS) remains financially sustainable, relevant data on healthcare expenditure are needed to inform decisions about which services should be delivered, by whom and in which settings.

METHODS

We analyse routine data on NHS expenditure in England over 9 years (2008/09 to 2016/17). To quantify the relative contribution of the different care settings to overall healthcare expenditure, we analyse trends in 14 healthcare settings under three broad categories: Hospital Based Care (HBC), Diagnostics and Therapeutics (D&T) and Community Care (CC). We exclude primary care and community mental health services settings due to a lack of consistent data. We employ a set of indices to aggregate diverse outputs and to disentangle growth in healthcare expenditure that is driven by activity from that due to cost pressures. We identify potential drivers of the observed trends from published studies.

RESULTS

Over the 9-year study period, combined NHS expenditure on HBC, D&T and CC rose by 50.2%. Expenditure on HBC rose by 54.1%, corresponding to increases in both activity (29.2%) and cost (15.7%). Rises in expenditure in inpatient (38.5%), outpatient (57.2%), and A&E (59.5%) settings were driven predominately by higher activity. Emergency admissions rose for both short-stay (45.6%) and long-stay cases (26.2%). There was a switch away from inpatient elective care (which fell by 5.1%) and towards day case care (34.8% rise), likely reflecting financial incentives for same-day discharges. Growth in expenditure on D&T (155.2%) was driven by rises in the volume of high cost drugs (270.5%) and chemotherapy (110.2%). Community prescribing grew by 45.2%, with costs falling by 24.4%. Evidence on the relationship between new technologies and healthcare expenditure is mixed, but the fall in drug costs could reflect low generic prices, and the use of health technology assessment or commercial arrangements to inform pricing of new medicines.

CONCLUSIONS

Aggregate trends in HCE mask enormous variation across healthcare settings. Understanding variation in activity and cost across settings is an important initial step towards ensuring the long-term sustainability of the NHS.

The association between primary care quality and health-care use, costs and outcomes for people with serious mental illness: a retrospective observational study

Background

Serious mental illness, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and other psychoses, is linked with high disease burden, poor outcomes, high treatment costs and lower life expectancy. In the UK, most people with serious mental illness are treated in primary care by general practitioners, who are financially incentivised to meet quality targets for patients with chronic conditions, including serious mental illness, under the Quality and Outcomes Framework. The Quality and Outcomes Framework, however, omits important aspects of quality.

Objectives

We examined whether or not better quality of primary care for people with serious mental illness improved a range of outcomes.

Design and setting

We used administrative data from English primary care practices that contribute to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, accident and emergency attendances, Office for National Statistics mortality data and community mental health records in the Mental Health Minimum Data Set. We used survival analysis to estimate whether or not selected quality indicators affect the time until patients experience an outcome.

Participants

Four cohorts of people with serious mental illness, depending on the outcomes examined and inclusion criteria.

Interventions

Quality of care was measured with (1) Quality and Outcomes Framework indicators (care plans and annual physical reviews) and (2) non-Quality and Outcomes Framework indicators identified through a systematic review (antipsychotic polypharmacy and continuity of care provided by general practitioners).

Main outcome measures

Several outcomes were examined: emergency admissions for serious mental illness and ambulatory care sensitive conditions; all unplanned admissions; accident and emergency attendances; mortality; re-entry into specialist mental health services; and costs attributed to primary, secondary and community mental health care.

Results

Care plans were associated with lower risk of accident and emergency attendance (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.80), serious mental illness admission (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.75), ambulatory care sensitive condition admission (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.83), and lower overall health-care (£53), primary care (£9), hospital (£26) and mental health-care costs (£12). Annual reviews were associated with reduced risk of accident and emergency attendance (hazard ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.85), serious mental illness admission (hazard ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.84), ambulatory care sensitive condition admission (hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.87), and lower overall health-care (£34), primary care (£9) and mental health-care costs (£30). Higher general practitioner continuity was associated with lower risk of accident and emergency presentation (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 0.97) and ambulatory care sensitive condition admission (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.92), but not with serious mental illness admission. High continuity was associated with lower primary care costs (£3). Antipsychotic polypharmacy was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of unplanned admission, death or accident and emergency presentation. None of the quality measures was statistically significantly associated with risk of re-entry into specialist mental health care.

Limitations

There is risk of bias from unobserved factors. To mitigate this, we controlled for observed patient characteristics at baseline and adjusted for the influence of time-invariant unobserved patient differences.

Conclusions

Better performance on Quality and Outcomes Framework measures and continuity of care are associated with better outcomes and lower resource utilisation, and could generate moderate cost savings.

Future work

Future research should examine the impact of primary care quality on measures that capture broader aspects of health and functioning.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 25. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Acute health shocks and labour market outcomes: Evidence from the post crash era

We investigate the labour supply response to an acute health shock for individuals of all working ages, in the post crash era, combining coarsened exact matching and entropy balancing to preprocess data prior to undertaking parametric regression. Identification exploits uncertainty in the timing of an acute health shock, defined by the incidence of cancer, stroke, or heart attack, based on data from Understanding Society. The main finding implies a substantial increase in the baseline probability of labour market exit along with reduced hours and earnings. Younger workers display a stronger labour market attachment than older counterparts, conditional on a health shock. Impacts are stronger for women, older workers, and those who experience more severe limitations and impairments. This is shown to be robust to a broad range of approaches to estimation. Sensitivity tests based on pre-treatment outcomes and using future health shocks as a placebo treatment support our identification strategy.

Impact of family practice continuity of care on unplanned hospital use for people with serious mental illness

Objective

To investigate whether continuity of care in family practice reduces unplanned hospital use for people with serious mental illness (SMI).

Data Sources

Linked administrative data on family practice and hospital utilization by people with SMI in England, 2007‐2014.

Study Design

This observational cohort study used discrete‐time survival analysis to investigate the relationship between continuity of care in family practice and unplanned hospital use: emergency department (ED) presentations, and unplanned admissions for SMI and ambulatory care‐sensitive conditions (ACSC). The analysis distinguishes between relational continuity and management/ informational continuity (as captured by care plans) and accounts for unobserved confounding by examining deviation from long‐term averages.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

Individual‐level family practice administrative data linked to hospital administrative data.

Principal Findings

Higher relational continuity was associated with 8‐11 percent lower risk of ED presentation and 23‐27 percent lower risk of ACSC admissions. Care plans were associated with 29 percent lower risk of ED presentation, 39 percent lower risk of SMI admissions, and 32 percent lower risk of ACSC admissions.

Conclusions

Family practice continuity of care can reduce unplanned hospital use for physical and mental health of people with SMI.

Association Between Antipsychotic Polypharmacy and Outcomes for People With Serious Mental Illness in England

OBJECTIVE

Although U.K. and international guidelines recommend monotherapy, antipsychotic polypharmacy among patients with serious mental illness is common in clinical practice. However, empirical evidence on its effectiveness is scarce. Therefore, the authors estimated the effectiveness of antipsychotic polypharmacy relative to monotherapy in terms of health care utilization and mortality.

METHODS

Primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink, hospital data from Hospital Episode Statistics, and mortality data from the Office of National Statistics were linked to compile a cohort of patients with serious mental illness in England from 2000 to 2014. The antipsychotic prescribing profile of 17,255 adults who had at least one antipsychotic drug record during the period of observation was constructed from primary care medication records. Survival analysis models were estimated to identify the effect of antipsychotic polypharmacy on the time to first occurrence of each of three outcomes: unplanned hospital admissions (all cause), emergency department (ED) visits, and mortality.

RESULTS

Relative to monotherapy, antipsychotic polypharmacy was not associated with increased risk of unplanned hospital admission (hazard ratio [HR]=1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.98-1.32), ED visit (HR=0.95; 95% CI=0.80-1.14), or death (HR=1.02; 95% CI=0.76-1.37). Relative to not receiving antipsychotic medication, monotherapy was associated with a reduced hazard of unplanned admissions to the hospital and ED visits, but it had no effect on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results support current guidelines for antipsychotic monotherapy in routine clinical practice. However, they also suggest that when clinicians have deemed antipsychotic polypharmacy necessary, health care utilization and mortality are not affected.

Do care plans and annual reviews of physical health influence unplanned hospital utilisation for people with serious mental illness? Analysis of linked longitudinal primary and secondary healthcare records in England

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether two primary care activities that are framed as indicators of primary care quality (comprehensive care plans and annual reviews of physical health) influence unplanned utilisation of hospital services for people with serious mental illness (SMI).

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective observational cohort study using linked primary care and hospital records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for 5158 patients diagnosed with SMI between April 2006 and March 2014, who attended 213 primary care practices in England that contribute to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database.

OUTCOMES AND ANALYSIS

Cox survival models were used to estimate the associations between two primary care quality indicators (care plans and annual reviews of physical health) and the hazards of three types of unplanned hospital utilisation: presentation to accident and emergency departments (A&E), admission for SMI and admission for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC).

RESULTS

Risk of A&E presentation was 13% lower (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98) and risk of admission to hospital for ACSC was 23% lower (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.99) for patients with a care plan documented in the previous year compared with those without a care plan. Risk of A&E presentation was 19% lower for those who had a care plan documented earlier but not updated in the previous year (HR: 0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.97) compared with those without a care plan. Risks of hospital admission for SMI were not associated with care plans, and none of the outcomes were associated with annual reviews.

CONCLUSIONS

Care plans documented in primary care for people with SMI are associated with reduced risk of A&E attendance and reduced risk of unplanned admission to hospital for physical health problems, but not with risk of admission for mental health problems. Annual reviews of physical health are not associated with risk of unplanned hospital utilisation.

End-Of-Life Medical Spending In Last Twelve Months Of Life Is Lower Than Previously Reported

Although end-of-life medical spending is often viewed as a major component of aggregate medical expenditure, accurate measures of this type of medical spending are scarce. We used detailed health care data for the period 2009-11 from Denmark, England, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Taiwan, the United States, and the Canadian province of Quebec to measure the composition and magnitude of medical spending in the three years before death. In all nine countries, medical spending at the end of life was high relative to spending at other ages. Spending during the last twelve months of life made up a modest share of aggregate spending, ranging from 8.5 percent in the United States to 11.2 percent in Taiwan, but spending in the last three calendar years of life reached 24.5 percent in Taiwan. This suggests that high aggregate medical spending is due not to last-ditch efforts to save lives but to spending on people with chronic conditions, which are associated with shorter life expectancies.

Point Prevalence of Adult Intestinal Failure in Republic Of Ireland

Parenteral Nutrition (PN) is a life-saving treatment used for patients with Intestinal Failure (IF). PN is complex and demands highly specialised care to avoid serious complications in the home setting. All tertiary centres in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) were contacted to assess the prevalence of IF requiring PN and complications, over a one year period. Sixty-seven patients were treated across 15 centres: a period prevalence of 14.6 and 9.6 patients per million for long-term PN and home PN respectively. Three-quarters of patients experienced at least one major complication with 18% mortality rate over the study period. There were 2.86 admissions per HPN patient, each lasting mean 13.4 days. One-third experienced catheter-related infections. There was a reduced length of stay during emergency re-admissions in high volume centres (mean 31 v 43 days, p=0.17). The establishment of a National Centre for IF/HPN in ROI is integral to reducing PN-associated complications.

Health care expenditures, age, proximity to death and morbidity: Implications for an ageing population

This paper uses Hospital Episode Statistics, English administrative data, to investigate the growth in admitted patient health care expenditures and the implications of an ageing population. We use two samples of around 40,000 individuals who (a) used inpatient health care in the financial year 2005/06 and died by the end of 2011/12 and (b) died in 2011/12 and had some hospital utilisation since 2005/06. We use a panel structure to follow individuals over seven years of this administrative data, containing estimates of inpatient health care expenditures (HCE), information regarding individuals' age, time-to-death (TTD), morbidities at the time of an admission, as well as the hospital provider, year and season of admission. We show that HCE is principally determined by proximity to death rather than age, and that proximity to death is itself a proxy for morbidity.

Publisher's Note: X-ray shadow imprint of hydrodynamic instabilities on the surface of inertial confinement fusion capsules by the fuel fill tube [Phys. Rev. E 95, 031204(R) (2017)]

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.95.031204.

X-ray shadow imprint of hydrodynamic instabilities on the surface of inertial confinement fusion capsules by the fuel fill tube

Measurements of hydrodynamic instability growth for a high-density carbon ablator for indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion implosions on the National Ignition Facility are reported. We observe significant unexpected features on the capsule surface created by shadows of the capsule fill tube, as illuminated by laser-irradiated x-ray spots on the hohlraum wall. These shadows increase the spatial size and shape of the fill tube perturbation in a way that can significantly degrade performance in layered implosions compared to previous expectations. The measurements were performed at a convergence ratio of ∼2 using in-flight x-ray radiography. The initial seed due to shadow imprint is estimated to be equivalent to ∼50-100 nm of solid ablator material. This discovery has prompted the need for a mitigation strategy for future inertial confinement fusion designs as proposed here.

A quasi-Monte-Carlo comparison of parametric and semiparametric regression methods for heavy-tailed and non-normal data: an application to healthcare costs

We conduct a quasi-Monte-Carlo comparison of the recent developments in parametric and semiparametric regression methods for healthcare costs, both against each other and against standard practice. The population of English National Health Service hospital in-patient episodes for the financial year 2007-2008 (summed for each patient) is randomly divided into two equally sized subpopulations to form an estimation set and a validation set. Evaluating out-of-sample using the validation set, a conditional density approximation estimator shows considerable promise in forecasting conditional means, performing best for accuracy of forecasting and among the best four for bias and goodness of fit. The best performing model for bias is linear regression with square-root-transformed dependent variables, whereas a generalized linear model with square-root link function and Poisson distribution performs best in terms of goodness of fit. Commonly used models utilizing a log-link are shown to perform badly relative to other models considered in our comparison.

Potential of Earlier Detection and Treatment of Disease-Related Malnutrition with Oral Nutrition Supplements to Release Acute Care Bed Capacity

A recent systematic review and meta-analysis shows that appropriate use of oral nutrition supplements (ONS) in community patients is associated with a significant reduction in hospitalisations. Given higher use of acute care resource by malnourished versus normally nourished patients, this paper examines the potential to reduce bed utilisation by applying these results to Irish inpatient and malnutrition prevalence data. In 2013, adults admitted to hospital with medium or high malnutrition risk scores used an estimated 36% of adult acute inpatient bed days. Targeted use of ONS in community patients might reduce hospitalisation by 168,438 adult bed days per year, equivalent to 460 beds per day. This is particularly important, given high bed occupancy rates and twelve month daily averages of 254 patients on trolleys. Relevant stakeholders should consider strategies to ensure effective ONS use with a view to improving outcomes and reducing pressure on the acute care system.

Methods for the estimation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analysis involves the comparison of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a new technology, which is more costly than existing alternatives, with the cost-effectiveness threshold. This indicates whether or not the health expected to be gained from its use exceeds the health expected to be lost elsewhere as other health-care activities are displaced. The threshold therefore represents the additional cost that has to be imposed on the system to forgo 1 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of health through displacement. There are no empirical estimates of the cost-effectiveness threshold used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To provide a conceptual framework to define the cost-effectiveness threshold and to provide the basis for its empirical estimation. (2) Using programme budgeting data for the English NHS, to estimate the relationship between changes in overall NHS expenditure and changes in mortality. (3) To extend this mortality measure of the health effects of a change in expenditure to life-years and to QALYs by estimating the quality-of-life (QoL) associated with effects on years of life and the additional direct impact on QoL itself. (4) To present the best estimate of the cost-effectiveness threshold for policy purposes.

METHODS

Earlier econometric analysis estimated the relationship between differences in primary care trust (PCT) spending, across programme budget categories (PBCs), and associated disease-specific mortality. This research is extended in several ways including estimating the impact of marginal increases or decreases in overall NHS expenditure on spending in each of the 23 PBCs. Further stages of work link the econometrics to broader health effects in terms of QALYs.

RESULTS

The most relevant 'central' threshold is estimated to be £12,936 per QALY (2008 expenditure, 2008-10 mortality). Uncertainty analysis indicates that the probability that the threshold is < £20,000 per QALY is 0.89 and the probability that it is < £30,000 per QALY is 0.97. Additional 'structural' uncertainty suggests, on balance, that the central or best estimate is, if anything, likely to be an overestimate. The health effects of changes in expenditure are greater when PCTs are under more financial pressure and are more likely to be disinvesting than investing. This indicates that the central estimate of the threshold is likely to be an overestimate for all technologies which impose net costs on the NHS and the appropriate threshold to apply should be lower for technologies which have a greater impact on NHS costs.

LIMITATIONS

The central estimate is based on identifying a preferred analysis at each stage based on the analysis that made the best use of available information, whether or not the assumptions required appeared more reasonable than the other alternatives available, and which provided a more complete picture of the likely health effects of a change in expenditure. However, the limitation of currently available data means that there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimate of the overall threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

The methods go some way to providing an empirical estimate of the scale of opportunity costs the NHS faces when considering whether or not the health benefits associated with new technologies are greater than the health that is likely to be lost elsewhere in the NHS. Priorities for future research include estimating the threshold for subsequent waves of expenditure and outcome data, for example by utilising expenditure and outcomes available at the level of Clinical Commissioning Groups as well as additional data collected on QoL and updated estimates of incidence (by age and gender) and duration of disease. Nonetheless, the study also starts to make the other NHS patients, who ultimately bear the opportunity costs of such decisions, less abstract and more 'known' in social decisions.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research-Medical Research Council Methodology Research Programme.

The Influence of Cost-Effectiveness and Other Factors on Nice Decisions

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) emphasises that cost-effectiveness is not the only consideration in health technology appraisal and is increasingly explicit about other factors considered relevant but not the weight attached to each. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of cost-effectiveness and other factors on NICE decisions and whether NICE's decision-making has changed over time. We model NICE's decisions as binary choices for or against a health care technology in a specific patient group. Independent variables comprised of the following: clinical and economic evidence; characteristics of patients, disease or treatment; and contextual factors potentially affecting decision-making. Data on all NICE decisions published by December 2011 were obtained from HTAinSite [www.htainsite.com]. Cost-effectiveness alone correctly predicted 82% of decisions; few other variables were significant and alternative model specifications had similar performance. There was no evidence that the threshold has changed significantly over time. The model with highest prediction accuracy suggested that technologies costing £40 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) have a 50% chance of NICE rejection (75% at £52 000/QALY; 25% at £27 000/QALY). Past NICE decisions appear to have been based on a higher threshold than £20 000-£30 000/QALY. However, this may reflect consideration of other factors that cannot be easily quantified. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Healthcare Cost Regressions: Going Beyond the Mean to Estimate the Full Distribution

Understanding the data generating process behind healthcare costs remains a key empirical issue. Although much research to date has focused on the prediction of the conditional mean cost, this can potentially miss important features of the full distribution such as tail probabilities. We conduct a quasi-Monte Carlo experiment using the English National Health Service inpatient data to compare 14 approaches in modelling the distribution of healthcare costs: nine of which are parametric and have commonly been used to fit healthcare costs, and five others are designed specifically to construct a counterfactual distribution. Our results indicate that no one method is clearly dominant and that there is a trade-off between bias and precision of tail probability forecasts. We find that distributional methods demonstrate significant potential, particularly with larger sample sizes where the variability of predictions is reduced. Parametric distributions such as log-normal, generalised gamma and generalised beta of the second kind are found to estimate tail probabilities with high precision but with varying bias depending upon the cost threshold being considered.

Do public smoking bans have an impact on active smoking? Evidence from the UK

The literature on the effects of public smoking bans on smoking behaviour presents conflicting results and there is limited evidence on their impact on active smoking. This paper evaluates the impact of smoking bans on active smoking using data from the British Household Panel Survey and exploiting the policy experiment provided by the differential timing of the introduction of the bans in Scotland and England. We assess the short-term impact of the smoking bans by employing a series of flexible difference-in-differences fixed effects panel data models. We find that the introduction of the public smoking bans in England and Scotland had limited short-run effects on both smoking prevalence and the total level of smoking. Although we identify significant differences in trends in smoking consumption across the survey period by population sub-groups, we find insufficient evidence to conclude that these were affected by the introduction of the smoking bans. These results challenge those found in the public health literature but are in line with the most recent strand of economic literature indicating that there is no firm evidence on the effects of smoking bans on smoking.

Comparing costs and outcomes across programmes of health care

This paper examines the expenditure choices of local health authorities operating under fixed budget constraints. It applies a theoretical model of budgeting to a data set from 303 English Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) across ten broad programmes of health care to derive estimates of the elasticity of expenditure in each programme with respect to the total income of the PCT. The results suggest quite similar income elasticities across most programmes, in the range 0.644-1.128. The only outlier is the musculoskeletal programme with an elasticity of about 0.46. The modelling also derives estimates of spending elasticities with respect to medical needs and thereby permits calculation of the implicit cost of saving a life year in five programmes of care. The results are important as they indicate to policy makers how specific programme areas might be affected by general budgetary reductions.

A person based formula for allocating commissioning funds to general practices in England: development of a statistical model

OBJECTIVES

To develop a formula for allocating resources for commissioning hospital care to all general practices in England based on the health needs of the people registered in each practice

DESIGN

Multivariate prospective statistical models were developed in which routinely collected electronic information from 2005-6 and 2006-7 on individuals and the areas in which they lived was used to predict their costs of hospital care in the next year, 2007-8. Data on individuals included all diagnoses recorded at any inpatient admission. Models were developed on a random sample of 5 million people and validated on a second random sample of 5 million people and a third sample of 5 million people drawn from a random sample of practices.

SETTING

All general practices in England as of 1 April 2007. All NHS inpatient admissions and outpatient attendances for individuals registered with a general practice on that date.

SUBJECTS

All individuals registered with a general practice in England at 1 April 2007.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Power of the statistical models to predict the costs of the individual patient or each practice's registered population for 2007-8 tested with a range of metrics (R(2) reported here). Comparisons of predicted costs in 2007-8 with actual costs incurred in the same year were calculated by individual and by practice.

RESULTS

Models including person level information (age, sex, and ICD-10 codes diagnostic recorded) and a range of area level information (such as socioeconomic deprivation and supply of health facilities) were most predictive of costs. After accounting for person level variables, area level variables added little explanatory power. The best models for resource allocation could predict upwards of 77% of the variation in costs at practice level, and about 12% at the person level. With these models, the predicted costs of about a third of practices would exceed or undershoot the actual costs by 10% or more. Smaller practices were more likely to be in these groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A model was developed that performed well by international standards, and could be used for allocations to practices for commissioning. The best formulas, however, could predict only about 12% of the variation in next year's costs of most inpatient and outpatient NHS care for each individual. Person-based diagnostic data significantly added to the predictive power of the models.

Contractual conditions, working conditions and their impact on health and well-being

Given changes in the labour market in past decades, it is of interest to evaluate whether and how contractual and working conditions affect health and psychological well-being in society today. We consider the effects of contractual and working conditions on self-assessed health and psychological well-being using twelve waves (1991/1992-2002/2003) of the British Household Panel Survey. For self-assessed health, the dependent variable is categorical, and we estimate non-linear dynamic panel ordered probit models, while for psychological well-being, we estimate a dynamic linear specification. The results show that both contractual and working conditions have an influence on health and psychological well-being and that the impact is different for men and women.

Does better disease management in primary care reduce hospital costs? Evidence from English primary care

We apply cross-sectional and panel data methods to a database of 5 million patients in 8000 English general practices to examine whether better primary care management of 10 chronic diseases is associated with reduced hospital costs. We find that only primary care performance in stroke care is associated with lower hospital costs. Our results suggest that the 10% improvement in the general practice quality of stroke care between 2004/5 and 2007/8 reduced 2007/8 hospital expenditure by about £130 million in England. The cost savings are due mainly to reductions in emergency admissions and outpatient visits, rather than to lower costs for patients treated in hospital or to reductions in elective admissions.

Health systems' responsiveness and its characteristics: a cross-country comparative analysis

OBJECTIVES. Responsiveness has been identified as one of the intrinsic goals of health care systems. Little is known, however, about its determinants. Our objective is to investigate the potential country-level drivers of health system responsiveness. DATA SOURCE. Data on responsiveness are taken from the World Health Survey. Information on country-level characteristics is obtained from a variety of sources including the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). STUDY DESIGN. A two-step procedure. First, using survey data we derive a country-level measure of system responsiveness purged of differences in individual reporting behavior. Secondly, we run cross-sectional country-level regressions of responsiveness on potential drivers. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Health care expenditures per capita are positively associated with responsiveness, after controlling for the influence of potential confounding factors. Aspects of responsiveness are also associated with public sector spending (negatively) and educational development (positively). CONCLUSIONS. From a policy perspective, improvements in responsiveness may require higher spending levels. The expansion of nonpublic sector provision, perhaps in the form of increased patient choice, may also serve to improve responsiveness. However, these inferences are tentative and require further study.

Inequality and polarisation in health systems' responsiveness: a cross-country analysis

The World Health Report 2000 proposed three fundamental goals for health systems encompassing population health, health care finance and health systems responsiveness. The goals incorporate both an efficiency and equity dimension. While inequalities in population health and health care finance have motivated two important strands of research, inequalities in responsiveness have received less attention in health economics. This paper examines inequality and polarisation in responsiveness, bridging this gap in the literature and contributing towards an integrated analysis of health systems performance. It uses data from the World Health Survey to measure and compare inequalities in responsiveness across 25 European countries. In order to respect the inherently ordinal nature of the responsiveness data, median-based measures of inequality and polarisation are employed. The results suggest that, in the face of wide differences in the health systems analysed, there exists large variability in inequality in responsiveness across countries.

Analysis of the validity of the vignette approach to correct for heterogeneity in reporting health system responsiveness

Despite the growing popularity of the vignette methodology to deal with self-reported, categorical data, the formal evaluation of the validity of this methodology is still a topic of research. Some critical assumptions need to hold in order for this method to be valid. In this paper we analyse the assumption of "vignette equivalence" using data on health system responsiveness contained within the World Health Survey. We perform several tests to check the assumption of vignette equivalence. First, we use a test based on the global ordering of the vignettes. A minimal condition for the assumption of vignette equivalence to hold is that individual responses are consistent with the global ordering of vignettes. Secondly, using the hierarchical ordered probit model (HOPIT) model on the pool of countries, we undertake sensitivity analyses, stratifying countries according to the Inglehart-Welzel scale and the Human Development Index. The results of this analysis are robust, suggesting that the vignette equivalence assumption is not contradicted. Thirdly, we model the reporting behaviour of the respondents through a two-step regression procedure to evaluate whether the vignettes construct is perceived by respondents in different ways. Overall, across the analyses the results do not contradict the assumption of vignette equivalence and accordingly lend support to the use of the vignette methodology when analysing self-reported data and health system responsiveness.

Initial experience with a rapid access blackouts triage clinic

Transient loss of consciousness (T-LOC), or blackout, is common in acute medicine. Clinical skills are not done well, with at least 74,000 patients misdiagnosed and mistreated for epilepsy in England alone. The aim of this study was to provide a rapid, structured assessment and an electrocardiogram (ECG) for patients with blackouts, aiming to identify high risk, reduce misdiagnoses, reduce hospital admission rates for low-risk patients, diagnose and treat where appropriate, and also provide onward specialist referral. The majority of patients had syncope, and very few had epilepsy. A high proportion had an abnormal ECG. A specialist-nurse-led rapid access blackouts triage clinic (RABTC) provided rapid effective triage for risk, a comprehensive assessment format, direct treatment for many patients, and otherwise a prompt appropriate onward referral. Rapid assessment through a RABTC reduced re-admissions with blackouts. Widespread use of the web-based blackouts tool could provide the NHS with a performance map. The U.K. has low rates of pacing compared to Western Europe, which RABTCs might help correct. The RABTC sits between first responders and specialist referral, providing clinical assessment and ECG in all cases, and referral where appropriate.

The role of the staff MFF in distributing NHS funding: taking account of differences in local labour market conditions

The National Health Service (NHS) in England distributes substantial funds to health-care providers in different geographical areas to pay for the health care required by the populations they serve. The formulae that determine this distribution reflect populations' health needs and local differences in the prices of inputs. Labour is the most important input and area differences in the price of labour are measured by the Staff Market Forces Factor (MFF). This Staff MFF has been the subject of much debate. Though the Staff MFF has operated for almost 30 years this is the first academic paper to evaluate and test the theory and method that underpin the MFF. The theory underpinning the Staff MFF is the General Labour Market method. The analysis reported here reveals empirical support for this theory in the case of nursing staff employed by NHS hospitals, but fails to identify similar support for its application to medical staff. The paper demonstrates the extent of spatial variation in private sector and NHS wages, considers the choice of comparators and spatial geography, incorporates vacancy modelling and illustrates the effect of spatial smoothing.

Statistical analysis of EQ-5D profiles: does the use of value sets bias inference?

Health state profile data, such as those provided by the EQ-5D, are widely collected in clinical trials, population surveys, and a growing range of other important health sector applications. However, these profile data are difficult to summarize to give an overall view of the health of a given population that can be analyzed for differences between groups or within groups over time. A common way of short cutting this problem is to transform profiles into a single number, or index, using sets of weights, often elicited from the general public in the form of values. Are there any problems with this procedure? In this article, the authors demonstrate the underlying effects of the use of value sets as a means of weighting profile data. They show that any set of weights introduces an exogenous source of variance to health profile data. These can distort findings about the significance of changes in health between groups or over time. No set of weights is neutral in its effect. If a summary of patient-reported outcomes is required, it may be better to use an instrument that yields this directly (such as the EQ VAS) along with the descriptive instrument. If this is not possible, researchers should have a clear rationale for their choice of weights and be aware that those weights may exert a nontrivial effect on their analysis. This article focuses on the EQ-5D, but the arguments and their implications for statistical analysis are relevant to all health state descriptive systems.

Can regional resource shares be based only on prevalence data? An empirical investigation of the proportionality assumption

The needs component of the current formulae for allocating resources for hospital services and prescribing in England is based on a utilisation approach. This assumes that expenditure on NHS activity in different geographical areas reflects relative needs and supply conditions, and that these can be disentangled by regression models to yield an estimate of relative need. These assumptions have been challenged on the grounds that the needs of some groups may be systematically 'unmet'. Critics have suggested an alternative based on variations in the prevalence of health conditions, called the 'epidemiological approach'. The epidemiological approach uses direct measures of morbidity to allocate health care resources. It divides the total national budget into disease programmes based on primary diagnosis, computes the proportion of total cases for each programme in each geographical area, and then allocates budgets to geographical areas proportional to their share of total cases. The main obstacle to the epidemiological approach has been seen as its very demanding data requirements. But it also faces methodological challenges. These centre on the assumption of proportionality which, at the area level to which resources will be allocated, requires that the average level of need for 'cases' within each disease programme is the same in every area. We illustrate the epidemiological approach, and test the proportionality assumption underpinning it, using data from the 2002-2004 rounds of the Health Survey for England. We find regional variation in disease severity for major diseases, which suggests that health care needs for some conditions vary by area. Further analysis suggests that the epidemiological approach might systematically underallocate resources to rural areas, areas with younger populations, and deprived areas. Since the proportionality assumption underpinning the epidemiological approach does not hold, its adoption would fail to take account of variations in severity. This casts some doubt on the utility of the approach for resource allocation at the present time.

Health care deprivation profiles in the measurement of inequality and inequity: an application to GP fundholding in the English NHS

This paper proposes a new approach to the measurement of inequality and inequity in the delivery of health care based on contributions from the literature on poverty and deprivation. This approach has some appealing characteristics: (1) inequity is additively decomposable by population subgroups; (2) the approach does not rely on socio-economic ranks; (3) it provides a graphical representation of the distribution of inequity; (4) it offers a range of indices consistent with dominance. An empirical application is provided investigating the effect of the GP fundholding reform on equity in English NHS. The results show that the most equitable GP practices self-selected into the scheme in 1991; evidence of an inequity-reducing treatment effect as well as a self-selection effect are found in 1992 and 1993; the self-selection process reduces and no evidence of a treatment effect is present thereafter.

Circulating beta-carotene levels and type 2 diabetes-cause or effect?

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Circulating beta-carotene levels are inversely associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, but the causal direction of this association is not certain. In this study we used a Mendelian randomisation approach to provide evidence for or against the causal role of the antioxidant vitamin beta-carotene in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We used a common polymorphism (rs6564851) near the BCMO1 gene, which is strongly associated with circulating beta-carotene levels (p = 2 x 10(-24)), with each G allele associated with a 0.27 standard deviation increase in levels. We used data from the InCHIANTI and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) studies to estimate the association between beta-carotene levels and type 2 diabetes. We next used a triangulation approach to estimate the expected effect of rs6564851 on type 2 diabetes risk and compared this with the observed effect using data from 4549 type 2 diabetes patients and 5579 controls from the Diabetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) Consortium.

RESULTS

A 0.27 standard deviation increase in beta-carotene levels was associated with an OR of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86-0.95) for type 2 diabetes in the InCHIANTI study. This association was similar to that of the ULSAM study (OR 0.90 [0.84-0.97]). In contrast, there was no association between rs6564851 and type 2 diabetes (OR 0.98 [0.93-1.04], p = 0.58); this effect size was also smaller than that expected, given the known associations between rs6564851 and beta-carotene levels, and the associations between beta-carotene levels and type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our findings in this Mendelian randomisation study are in keeping with randomised controlled trials suggesting that beta-carotene is not causally protective against type 2 diabetes.