Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely employed to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Their associated effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have however been unequally studied across regions. Few studies have focused on the Gulf states despite their potential role for global pandemic spread, in particular in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through religious pilgrimages. We study the association between NPIs and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the first pandemic wave between March and October 2020. We infer associations between NPIs introduction and lifting through a spatial SEIR-type model that allows for inferences of region-specific changes in transmission intensity. We find that reductions in transmission were associated with NPIs implemented shortly after the first reported case including Isolate and Test with School Closure (region-level mean estimates of the reduction in R0 ranged from 25-41%), Curfew (20-70% reduction), and Lockdown (50-60% reduction), although uncertainty in the estimates was high, particularly for the Isolate and Test with School Closure NPI (95% Credible Intervals from 1% to 73% across regions). Transmission was found to increase progressively in most regions during the last part of NPI relaxation phases. These results can help informing the policy makers in the planning of NPI scenarios as the pandemic evolves with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the availability of vaccination.

Long-term Trajectories of C-Reactive Protein Among Men Living With and Without HIV Infection in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) is an inflammatory biomarker associated with all-cause mortality and morbidities such as cardiovascular disease. CRP is increased with HIV infection and thought to increase with age, though trajectories of CRP with aging have not been well characterized. We investigated trajectories of CRP in men from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, according to HIV infection and HIV viral load status.

METHODS

CRP measurements from 12 250 serum samples, provided by 2132 men over a span of 30 years, were categorized by HIV status at sample collection: HIV uninfected (HIV-, n = 1717), HIV infected with undetectable RNA (HIV+ suppressed, n = 4075), and detectable HIV RNA (HIV+ detectable, n = 6458). Age-related trajectories of CRP were fit to multivariable linear mixed models; we tested for differences in trajectories by HIV status.

RESULTS

CRP increased with age in all sample groups. HIV+ detectable and HIV+ suppressed samples had higher CRP than HIV- samples throughout the observed age range of 20-70 years (p < .05). CRP concentrations at age 45 years were 38% (95% CI: 26%-50%) and 26% (15%-38%) higher in HIV+ detectable and HIV+ suppressed samples, respectively, relative to HIV- samples. HIV+ detectable samples showed more rapid linear increases with age (8% higher/decade, 0.3%-16%) than HIV- samples.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed higher concentrations of CRP across 5 decades of age in men living with HIV, and steeper increases with age in men with detectable HIV RNA, relative to HIV- men. These results are consistent with a contribution of inflammation to the higher risk of age-related comorbidities with HIV infection.

Self-Reported Cannabis Use and Markers of Inflammation in Men Who Have Sex With Men With and Without HIV

Background: Chronic inflammation contributes to aging and organ dysfunction in the general population, and is a particularly important determinant of morbidity and mortality among people with HIV (PWH). The effect of cannabis use on chronic inflammation is not well understood among PWH, who use cannabis more frequently than the general population. Materials and Methods: We evaluated participants in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) beginning in 2004 with available data on cannabis use and inflammatory biomarkers. Associations of current cannabis use with plasma concentrations of inflammatory markers were adjusted for hepatitis C, tobacco smoking, and comorbidities. Markers were analyzed individually and in exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Results: We included 1352 men within the MACS. Twenty-seven percent of HIV-negative men, 41% of HIV viremic men, and 35% of virologically suppressed men reported cannabis use at baseline. Among cannabis users, 20-25% in all groups defined by HIV serostatus were daily users, and the same proportion reported weekly use. The remaining ∼50% of users in all groups reported monthly or less frequent use. Four biomarker groupings were identified by EFA: Factor 1: immune activation markers; Factor 2: proinflammatory cytokines; Factor 3: Th1- and Th2-promoting cytokines; and Factor 4: inflammatory chemokines. In EFA, daily users had 30% higher levels of Factor 2 biomarkers than nonusers (p=0.03); this was the only statistically significant difference by cannabis use status. Among individual markers, concentrations of IL-1β, IL-2, IL-6, and IL-8 (Factor 2); IL-10 (Factor 3); and BAFF (Factor 1) were higher (p<0.05) among daily cannabis users than among nonusers, after adjusting for HIV serostatus and other covariates. Discussion: Associations between daily cannabis use and proinflammatory biomarker levels did not differ by HIV serostatus. Further prospective studies with measured cannabis components are needed to clarify the impact of these compounds on inflammation. Our findings can facilitate for hypothesis generation and selection of biomarkers to include in such studies.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease in HIV controller and long-term nonprogressor populations

OBJECTIVES

Elite controllers (ECs), viraemic controllers (VCs), and long-term nonprogressors (LTNPs) control HIV viral replication or maintain CD4 T-cell counts without antiretroviral therapy, but may have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk compared to HIV-uninfected persons. We evaluated subclinical carotid and coronary atherosclerosis and inflammatory biomarker levels among HIV controllers, LTNPs and noncontrollers and HIV-uninfected individuals in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) and the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS).

METHODS

We measured carotid plaque presence and common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) in 1729 women and 1308 men, and the presence of coronary artery calcium and plaque in a subgroup of men. Associations between HIV control category and carotid and coronary plaque prevalences were assessed by multivariable regression analyses adjusting for demographics and CVD risk factors. Serum inflammatory biomarker concentrations [soluble CD163 (sCD163), soluble CD14 (sCD14), galectin-3 (Gal-3), galectin-3 binding protein (Gal-3BP) and interleukin (IL)-6] were measured and associations with HIV control category assessed.

RESULTS

We included 135 HIV controllers (30 ECs) and 135 LTNPs in the study. Carotid plaque prevalence and carotid IMT were similar in HIV controllers, LTNPs and HIV-uninfected individuals. HIV controllers and LTNPs had lower prevalences of carotid plaque compared to viraemic HIV-infected individuals. The prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis was similar in HIV controllers/LTNPs compared to HIV-uninfected and viraemic HIV-infected men. Controllers and LTNPs had higher concentrations of sCD163 and sCD14 compared to HIV-uninfected persons.

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical CVD was similar in HIV controllers, LTNPs and HIV-uninfected individuals despite elevated levels of some inflammatory biomarkers. Future studies of HIV controllers and LTNPs are needed to characterize the risk of CVD among HIV-infected persons.

Partial Normalization of Biomarkers of Inflammation and Immune Activation Among Virally Suppressed Men With HIV Infection and High ART Adherence

Background

The objective of this study was to investigate whether 100% antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence in men with HIV (MWH) is associated with normalization of concentrations of biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation compared with HIV-uninfected men.

Methods

We analyzed person-visits with available biomarker data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) among MWH receiving ART with HIV RNA <50 copies/mL and among HIV-uninfected men. Self-reported adherence was classified as 100% if no missed ART doses in the past 4 days were reported. We evaluated associations between ART adherence and concentrations of 24 serum biomarkers compared with HIV-uninfected visits using a generalized gamma model, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

Person-visits (2565 from MWH reporting 100% ART adherence and 1588 from HIV-uninfected men) from a total of 1469 men were included in the analysis. Serum concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL-6), soluble interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R), IL-1β, interferon-γ (IFN-γ), chemokine C-C motif ligand 2 (CCL2), and CCL14 from person-visits among MWH who reported 100% adherence were similar to HIV-uninfected person-visits. Comparatively higher concentrations of 11 biomarkers and lower concentrations of 7 biomarkers were observed in person-visits from MWH who reported 100% ART adherence, compared with HIV-uninfected person-visits.

Conclusions

Although MWH with virologic suppression who reported 100% ART adherence exhibited overall higher concentrations of biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation compared with HIV-uninfected men, some biomarker concentrations were similar in both groups. These findings suggest that optimal ART adherence could have clinical implications beyond achieving and sustaining viral suppression.

Suboptimal Adherence to Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Is Associated With Higher Levels of Inflammation Despite HIV Suppression

BACKGROUND

 Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals exhibit residual inflammation regardless of virologic suppression. We evaluated whether suboptimal adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with greater residual inflammation than optimal adherence, despite virologic suppression.

METHODS

 Longitudinal self-reported cART adherence data and serum concentrations of 24 biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation were measured at the same study visit in HIV RNA-suppressed (<50 copies/mL) HIV-infected men in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1998 to 2009. Associations between dichotomized 6-month (<100% vs 100%) and categorized 4-day (<85%, 85%-99%, and 100%) cART adherence with biomarker concentrations were evaluated.

RESULTS

 A total of 912 men provided 2816 person-visits with documented plasma HIV RNA suppression. In adjusted models, person-visits at which <100% cART 6-month adherence was reported had higher concentrations of interleukin 2, 6, and 10, interferon γ, tumor necrosis factor α, and C-reactive protein than person-visits at which 100% cART adherence (P < .05) was reported. These same differences were observed in person-visits reporting <85% versus 100% 4-day cART adherence, but not in visits reporting 85%-99% versus 100% cART adherence. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, tumor necrosis factor α remained significantly higher (11% increase; P < .001) in person-visits at which <100% adherence was reported.

CONCLUSIONS

 Higher concentrations of inflammatory biomarkers were observed among HIV RNA-suppressed men who reported <100% cART adherence than among more adherent men. Residual HIV replication (ie, below the limit of detection), more likely among men with suboptimal adherence, is a plausible mechanism. Whether improving cART adherence could affect residual inflammation and associated morbidity and mortality rates should be investigated.

Inflammatory Biomarkers and Mortality Risk Among HIV-Suppressed Men: A Multisite Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-induced inflammation and immune activation persist after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and HIV suppression and may contribute to mortality risks that exceed those in HIV-uninfected populations, though associations are unclear.

METHODS

In the prospective Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, comprising men who have sex with men from Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh, concentrations of 24 biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation were measured in stored serum from HIV-positive men obtained after cART-induced HIV suppression between 1996 and 2009. The outcome was nonaccidental death, with follow-up until 2014. We used Cox proportional hazards models to test whether biomarker concentrations predict time from HIV suppression to death and adjusted for multiple tests. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was employed to identify groupings of biomarkers that predict mortality risk.

RESULTS

Of 670 men followed up from HIV suppression, 54 died by the end of 2013. After adjustment for age, CD4(+) cell count, hepatitis B or C virus infection, and smoking, concentrations in the highest quartile of 4 biomarkers were significantly associated with mortality risk after controlling the false discovery rate at 5%: interleukin (IL) 6 (hazard ratio, 3.54; 95% confidence interval, 2.06-6.10), soluble IL 2Rα (3.29, 1.85-5.85), soluble CD14 (2.67, 1.55-4.61), and chemokine (CXC motif) ligand 13 (CXCL13; 2.26; 1.29-3.95). EFA yielded 2 biomarker groupings that were independent predictors of mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite having undetectable HIV RNA levels during cART, men with higher concentrations of several biomarkers (particularly IL 6, soluble IL 2Rα, soluble CD14, and CXCL13) had higher hazards of long-term mortality. Correlations observed among biomarker concentrations may represent underlying inflammatory processes that contribute to mortality risk.