Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Whole-Genome Sequencing Predicting Phenotypic Antitubercular Drug Resistance: Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

For simultaneous prediction of phenotypic drug susceptibility test (pDST) for multiple antituberculosis drugs, the whole genome sequencing (WGS) data can be analyzed using either a catalog-based approach, wherein 1 causative mutation suggests resistance, (eg, World Health Organization catalog) or noncatalog-based approach using complicated algorithm (eg, TB-profiler, machine learning). The aim was to estimate the predictive ability of WGS-based tests with pDST as the reference, and to compare the 2 approaches.

METHODS

Following a systematic literature search, the diagnostic test accuracies for 14 drugs were pooled using a random-effect bivariate model.

RESULTS

Of 779 articles, 44 with 16 821 specimens for meta-analysis and 13 not for meta-analysis were included. The areas under summary receiver operating characteristic curve suggested test accuracy was excellent (0.97-1.00) for 2 drugs (isoniazid 0.975, rifampicin 0.975), very good (0.93-0.97) for 8 drugs (pyrazinamide 0.946, streptomycin 0.952, amikacin 0.968, kanamycin 0.963, capreomycin 0.965, para-aminosalicylic acid 0.959, levofloxacin 0.960, ofloxacin 0.958), and good (0.75-0.93) for 4 drugs (ethambutol 0.926, moxifloxacin 0.896, ethionamide 0.878, prothionamide 0.908). The noncatalog-based and catalog-based approaches had similar ability for all drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

WGS accurately identifies isoniazid and rifampicin resistance. For most drugs, positive WGS results reliably predict pDST positive. The 2 approaches had similar ability.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

UMIN-ID UMIN000049276.

Value of Dynamic Computed Tomography Myocardial Perfusion in CAD: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

AIMS

Dynamic stress computed tomography (CT) perfusion is a non-invasive method for quantifying myocardial ischemia by assessing myocardial blood flow (MBF). In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of dynamic CT perfusion for the detection of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) across various CT scanners, obese patients, and its prognostic value.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane library for published studies evaluating the accuracy of CT myocardial perfusion in diagnosing functional significant ischemia by invasive fractional flow reserve. The diagnostic performance of dynamic CT perfusion in detecting ischemia was evaluated using a summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve. A total of 23 studies underwent meta- analysis. In myocardial region without ischemia, MBF was measured at 1.44 ml/min/g (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.75), while in region with ischemia, it was 0.94 ml/min/g (95% CI: 0.80-1.08) (p<0.001). On the patient-based analysis, the area under the sROC curve of CT-MBF was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 0.84 and specificity of 0.88. Differences in CT type (dual source vs. single source), and body mass index (BMI) did not significantly affect the diagnostic performance. The pooled hazard ratio of dynamic CT perfusion for predicting adverse events was 4.98 (95%CI: 2.08-11.93, p=<0.001, I2=61%, p for heterogeneity = 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic CT perfusion has high diagnostic performance in the quantitative assessment of ischemia and detection of functional myocardial ischemia as defined by invasive FFR, and may be useful in risk stratification of CAD patients.

Prognostic impact of MRI-derived feature tracking myocardial strain in patients with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To evaluate the clinical utility of feature tracking (FT)-derived myocardial strain in patients with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Electronic database searches of PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane advanced search, and EMBASE were performed. Studies on NIDCM were divided into categories according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; <30%, 30-40%, >40%), and correlations between strains and prevalence of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) were evaluated by weighted correlation coefficients. Global longitudinal strain (GLS) hazard ratios were also integrated for prediction of future adverse events.

RESULTS

The present meta-analysis analysed data from 5,767 patients with NIDCM from 30 eligible studies. GLS and global circumferential strain significantly differed across the three LVEF categories (all p<0.05); however, global radial strain did not. Only GLS showed a strong correlation with the prevalence of LGE (Spearman's correlation coefficient = 0.61). The pooled HR of GLS for predicting adverse events was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.23, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

In this meta-analysis, FT-derived GLS was strongly correlated with myocardial fibrosis and was an important predictor of future adverse events. These results suggest that FT-derived GLS may be useful in the pathological evaluation and risk stratification of NIDCM.

Real-world evidence of efficacy of pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy and nivolumab plus ipilimumab plus chemotherapy as initial treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

For advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), combination therapies including a PD-1 inhibitor plus chemotherapy or a PD-1 inhibitor, CTLA-4 inhibitor, and chemotherapy are standard first-line options. However, data directly comparing these regimens are lacking. This study compared the efficacy of pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy (CP) against nivolumab plus ipilimumab and chemotherapy (CNI) in a real-world setting.

METHODS

In this multicenter retrospective study, we compared the efficacy and safety of CP and CNI as first-line therapies in 182 patients with stage IIIB-IV NSCLC. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), while secondary outcomes included the response rate (RR) and safety profiles. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were utilized for data analysis, adjusting for confounding factors such as age, gender, and PD-L1 expression.

RESULTS

In this study, 160 patients received CP, while 22 received CNI. The CP group was associated with significantly better PFS than the CNI group (median 11.7 vs. 6.6 months, HR 0.56, p = 0.03). This PFS advantage persisted after propensity score matching to adjust for imbalances. No significant OS differences were observed. Grade 3-4 adverse events occurred comparably, but immune-related adverse events were numerically more frequent in the CNI group.

CONCLUSIONS

In real-world practice, CP demonstrated superior PFS compared with CNI. These findings can inform treatment selection in advanced NSCLC.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors for metastatic uveal melanoma: a meta-analysis

Several studies have evaluated immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) for metastatic uveal melanoma; however, the efficacy of ICIs in the previous studies varied greatly. In this systematic review, we searched for prospective or retrospective studies on single or dual-ICIs for metastatic uveal melanoma treatment. A random-effect model meta-analysis with generic inverse-variance was conducted, and 36 articles representing 41 cohorts of 1414 patients with metastatic uveal melanoma were included. The pooled outcomes were as follows: objective response rate (ORR) was 5.6% (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 3.7-7.5%; I2, 36%), disease control rate (DCR) was 32.5% (95% CI 27.2-37.7%; I2, 73%), median progression-free survival was 2.8 months (95% CI 2.7-2.9 months; I2, 26%), and median overall survival (OS) was 11.2 months (95% CI 9.6-13.2 months; I2, 74%). Compared to single-agent ICI, dual ICI led to better ORR (single-agent: 3.4% [95% CI 1.8-5.1]; dual-agent: 12.4% [95% CI 8.0-16.9]; P < 0.001), DCR (single-agent: 29.3%, [95% CI 23.4-35.2]; dual-agent: 44.3% [95% CI 31.7-56.8]; P = 0.03), and OS (single-agent: 9.8 months [95% CI 8.0-12.2]; dual-agent: 16.3 months [95% CI 13.5-19.7]; P < 0.001). Our analysis provided treatment outcomes as described above. Dual-ICIs appear better than single-agent ICIs for the treatment of metastatic uveal melanoma.

Right ventricular myocardial fibrosis evaluated by extracellular volume fraction by magnetic resonance imaging in patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the clinical utility of anomalous discoveries on cardiac magnetic resonance, particularly the right ventricular extracellular volume (RV-ECV), among individuals who underwent surgical repair for Tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF).

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of electronic databases including PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane advanced search, and EMBASE. Our analysis involved a comparison of ECV levels between rTOF patients and controls, as well as an evaluation of the predictive value of ECV for future adverse events.

RESULTS

We identified 16 eligible studies that encompassed 856 rTOF patients and 283 controls. Our meta-analysis showed a significant increase in LV-ECV among rTOF patients compared to control subjects (MD = 2.63, 95%CI: 1.35 to 3.90, p < 0.0001, I2 = 86%, p for heterogeneity < 0.00001). Moreover, RV-ECV was found to be substantially higher in patients compared to LV-ECV. Our meta-analysis also revealed a significant association between RV-ECV and adverse events (HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.27, p = 0.005, I2 = 0%, p for heterogeneity = 0.62), while LV-ECV did not show any significant association with adverse events (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.36, p = 0.16, I2 = 0%, p for heterogeneity = 0.46).

CONCLUSION

The results of this meta-analysis on RV-ECV confirmed the presence of RV fibrosis as one of the prognostic factors in rTOF patients.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improved diagnostic accuracy with three lung tumor markers compared to six-marker panel

Background

Combining multiple tumor markers increases sensitivity for lung cancer diagnosis in the cost of false positive. However, some would like to check as many as tumor markers in the fear of missing cancer. We though to propose a panel of fewer tumor markers for lung cancer diagnosis.

Methods

Patients with suspected lung cancer who simultaneously underwent all six tests [carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), cytokeratin-19 fragment (CYFRA), squamous cell carcinoma-associated antigen (SCC), neuron-specific enolase (NSE), pro-gastrin-releasing peptide (ProGRP), and sialyl Lewis-X antigen (SLX)] were included. Tumor markers with significant impact on the lung cancer in a logistic regression model were included in our panel. Area under the curve (AUC) was compared between our panel and the panel of all six.

Results

We included 1,733 [median 72 years, 1,128 men, 605 women, 779 (45%) confirmed lung cancer]. Logistic regression analysis suggested CEA, CYFRA, and NSE were independently associated with the lung cancer diagnosis. The panel of these three tumor markers [AUC =0.656, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.630-0.682, sensitivity 0.650, specificity 0.662] had better (P<0.001) diagnostic performance than six tumor markers (AUC =0.575, 95% CI: 0.548-0.602, sensitivity 0.829, specificity 0.321).

Conclusions

Compared to applying all six markers (at least one marker above the upper limit of normal), the panel with three markers (at least one marker above the upper limit of normal) led to a better predictive value by lowering the risk of false positives.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Efficacy and safety of macrolide therapy for adult asthma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The evidence for macrolide therapy in adult asthma is not properly established and remains controversial. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the efficacy and safety of macrolide therapy for adult asthma.

METHODS

We searched randomized controlled trials from MEDLINE via the PubMed, CENTRAL, and Ichushi Web databases. The primary outcome was asthma exacerbation. The secondary outcomes were serious adverse events (including mortality), asthma-related quality of life (symptom scales, Asthma Control Questionnaire, and Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire), rescue medication (puffs/day), respiratory function (morning peak expiratory flow, evening peak flow, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s), bronchial hyperresponsiveness, and minimum oral corticosteroid dose. Of the 805 studies, we selected seven studies for the meta-analysis, which was conducted using a random-effects model.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000050824).

RESULTS

No significant difference between macrolide and placebo for asthma exacerbations was observed (risk ratio 0.71, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.46-1.09; p = 0.12). Macrolide therapy for adult asthma showed a significant improvement in rescue medication with short-acting beta-agonists (mean difference -0.41, 95 % CI -0.78 to -0.04; p = 0.03). Macrolide therapy did not show more serious adverse events (odd ratio 0.61, 95 % CI 0.34-1.10; p = 0.10) than those with placebo. The other secondary outcomes were not significantly different between the macrolide and placebo groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Macrolide therapy for adult asthma may be more effective than placebo and could be a treatment option.

Pregnancy outcomes in patients with familial Mediterranean fever: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between FMF and pregnancy outcomes remains unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to clarify this association.

METHODS

Electronic databases-PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane, and EMBASE-were searched on 20 December 2022, using specific search terms. Case-control, cohort, and randomized clinical trial studies comparing patients with FMF and healthy controls were considered eligible. We excluded systematic reviews, meta-analyses, case series with fewer than five cases, republished articles without new findings on pregnancy outcomes, studies targeting paternal FMF, and those not published in English. The results were summarized in the form of odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs, using a random-effects model. This study was registered in the University hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (Japan) as UMIN000049827.

RESULTS

The initial electronic search identified 611 records, of which 9 were included in this meta-analysis (177 735 pregnancies, 1242 with FMF, and 176 493 healthy controls). FMF was significantly associated with increased odds of preterm deliveries (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.05-2.67; I2 = 22%) and insignificantly associated with increased odds of fetal growth restriction (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.90-2.34; I2 = 0%) and hypertensive disorders during pregnancy (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.87-1.87; I2 = 0%).

CONCLUSION

FMF was significantly associated with preterm delivery and insignificantly associated with fetal growth restriction and hypertensive disorders. All of the included studies were observational studies. Treatment characteristics were not fully collected from the articles, and further analysis of treatments for FMF in pregnancy is still warranted.

ILD-GAP combined with the monocyte ratio could be a better prognostic prediction model than ILD-GAP in patients with interstitial lung diseases

BACKGROUND

The ILD-GAP scoring system is known to be useful in predicting prognosis in patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD). An elevated monocyte count was associated with increased risks of IPF poor prognosis. We examined whether the ILD-GAP scoring system combined with the monocyte ratio (ILD-GAPM) is superior to the conventional ILD-GAP model in predicting ILD prognosis.

METHODS

In patients with ILD treated between April 2013 and April 2017, we were retrospectively assessed the relationships between baseline clinical parameters, including age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index score (CCIS), ILD diagnosis, blood biomarkers, pulmonary function test results, and disease outcomes. In ILD patients were included idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (iNSIP), collagen vascular disease-related interstitial pneumonia (CVD-IP), chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (CHP), and unclassifiable ILD (UC-ILD). We also assessed the ability to predict prognosis was compared between the ILD-GAP and ILD-GAPM models.

RESULTS

A total of 179 patients (mean age, 73 years) were assessed. All of them were taken pulmonary function test, including percentage predicted diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide. ILD patients included 56 IPF cases, 112 iNSIP and CVD-IP cases, 6 CHP cases and 5 UC-ILD cases. ILD-GAPM provided a greater area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (0.747) than ILD-GAP (0.710) for predicting 3-year ILD-related events. Furthermore, the log-rank test showed that the Kaplan-Meier curves in ILD-GAPM were significantly different by stage (P = 0.015), but not by stage in ILD-GAP (P = 0.074).

CONCLUSIONS

The ILD-GAPM model may be a more accurate predictor of prognosis for ILD patients than the ILD-GAP model.

Treatment-related adverse events, including fatal toxicities, in patients with solid tumours receiving neoadjuvant and adjuvant immune checkpoint blockade: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Incorporating immune checkpoint blockade into perioperative cancer therapy has improved clinical outcomes. However, the safety of immune checkpoint blockade needs better evaluation, given the chances of more prolonged disease-free survival. We aimed to assess how adding immune checkpoint blockade to perioperative therapy affects treatment-related adverse events.

METHODS

For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library from database inception until Aug 8, 2023, for randomised controlled trials that assessed the addition of immune checkpoint blockade to neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy for cancer, reported treatment-related deaths, and had a design in which the experimental group assessed immune checkpoint blockade in combination with the therapy used in the control group. Meta-analysis was done to pool odds ratios (ORs) of treatment-related deaths, any grade and grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events, serious adverse events, and adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022343741.

FINDINGS

28 randomised controlled trials with 16 976 patients were included. The addition of immune checkpoint blockade was not significantly associated with increased treatment-related deaths (OR 1·76, 95% CI 0·95-3·25; p=0·073), consistent across immune checkpoint blockade subtype (I2=0%). 40 fatal toxicities were identified across 9864 patients treated with immune checkpoint blockade, with pneumonitis being the most common (six [15·0%]); 13 fatal toxicities occurred among 7112 patients who were not treated with immune checkpoint blockade. The addition of immune checkpoint blockade increased the incidence of grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events (OR 2·73, 95% CI 1·98-3·76; p<0·0001), adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation (3·67, 2·45-5·51; p<0·0001), and treatment-related adverse events of any grade (2·60 [1·88-3·61], p<0·0001). The immune checkpoint blockade versus placebo design primarily used as adjuvant therapy was associated with increased incidence of treatment-related deaths (4·02, 1·04-15·63; p=0·044) and grade 3-4 adverse events (5·31, 3·08-9·15; p<0·0001), whereas the addition of immune checkpoint blockade in the neoadjuvant setting was not associated with increased incidence of treatment-related death (1·11, 95% CI 0·38-3·29; p=0·84) or grade 3-4 adverse events (1·17, 0·90-1·51; p=0·23).

INTERPRETATION

The addition of immune checkpoint blockade to perioperative therapy was associated with an increase in grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events and adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation. These findings provide safety insights for further clinical trials assessing neoadjuvant or adjuvant immune checkpoint blockade therapy. Clinicians should closely monitor patients for treatment-related adverse events to prevent treatment discontinuations and morbidity from these therapies in earlier-stage settings.

FUNDING

None.

Influence of age, IGRA results, and inflammatory markers on mortality in hospitalized tuberculosis patients

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death globally. Identifying the factors associated with mortality during hospitalization for TB is crucial for improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors, including T-SPOT.TB test results and routine laboratory markers of inflammation, associated with death during hospitalization due to TB.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 244 hospitalized TB patients. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, T-SPOT.TB results, and laboratory parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Among the patients, 206 survived and 38 died during hospitalization. Multivariate analysis revealed that age (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.15, p = 0.001), a negative T-SPOT.TB test result (HR: 4.01, 95% CI: 1.78-9.01, p < 0.001), elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.08, p = 0.007), and increased neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.07, p = 0.025) were independent risk factors for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified age, a negative T-SPOT.TB result, elevated CRP levels, and a high NLR as significant independent risk factors for death in hospitalized TB patients. These findings underscore the importance of these parameters in the risk stratification and management of hospitalized TB patients. Further research is warranted to elucidate the mechanisms behind these associations and to validate these results in different populations.

Trends in Gastrointestinal Infections during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Concerns of Post-Pandemic Resurgence in Japan

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was very broad and substantial, affecting a variety of fields worldwide. In Japan, the infection began spreading in March 2020. At that time, the government alerted people to cancel overseas travel, and encouraged wearing of masks, handwashing, sanitizing and keeping social distance. We sought to determine how COVID-19 infections affected other infectious diseases by investigating the trends in seven gastrointestinal infections that are listed among the 77 important infectious diseases designated by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases. We compared seven gastrointestinal infectious diseases, namely cholera, bacterial dysentery, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever, amoebic dysentery, and giardiasis, in terms of numbers of new cases before the COVID-19 pandemic (2012-2019) and during the pandemic (2020-2022). During the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2022), the incidence of the seven infections decreased significantly (p < 0.05) compared with before the pandemic (2012-2019). The sharp and significant decline in incidence of these seven infections in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2022) appears to be due to restrictions on overseas travel and strict anti-infection measures, such as self-quarantine and encouragement of handwashing and sanitizing. The number of new cases of gastrointestinal infections in Japan is expected to increase in 2024 as these measures lapse. It is important for physicians to continue to monitor trends in gastrointestinal infections and educate people about proper infection prevention.

Serum heme oxygenase-1 as a prognostic biomarker in patients with acute exacerbation of interstitial lung disease

Serum heme oxygenase (HO)-1 level has been reported as a clinically reliable diagnostic biomarker for acute exacerbation of interstitial lung disease (ILD); however, its utility for predicting mortality among these patients is unclear. Serum HO-1 levels of patients newly diagnosed with acute exacerbation of ILD were measured at the time of initiating steroid pulse therapy. The relationship between serum HO-1 and various other serum biomarkers, change in HRCT findings, and disease prognosis at 12 weeks after diagnosis of acute exacerbation was evaluated in 51 patients, of whom 17 (33%) had idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Serum HO-1 was higher in patients with acute exacerbation of IPF than in patients with acute exacerbation of other ILDs. Serum HO-1 levels were higher in patients who died within these 12 weeks than in survivors. Among age, sex, comorbidities, IPF diagnosis, HRCT findings, and blood biomarkers, serum HO-1 was a primary predictor of 12-week mortality. In 41 patients who underwent repeat HRCT, serum HO-1 was higher in patients with honeycomb progression than in those without. Serum HO-1 measurement could be useful for evaluating disease mortality and morbidity of patients with acute exacerbation of ILDs.

Atezolizumab addition to platinum doublet: evaluating survival outcomes for patients with extensive disease small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of adding atezolizumab to the platinum doublet regimen for extensive disease small cell lung cancer (ED-SCLC) remains marginally limited.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed the real-world efficacy and safety of atezolizumab in addition to carboplatin and etoposide (EP + A), versus carboplatin and etoposide (EP) alone in previously untreated ED-SCLC patients.

RESULTS

From a total of 99 patients, 46 were assigned to the EP + A group, and 53 to the EP group. No significant difference was observed in progression-free survival between the groups. However, the overall survival (OS) was significantly longer in the EP + A group (20.8 vs 12.1 months; HR: 0.52; p = 0.0127). Patients older than 70 years, male, with performance status 0-1, without liver metastasis, and low levels of C-reactive protein and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, experienced longer OS in the EP + A group compared to the EP group.

CONCLUSION

The addition of atezolizumab to the platinum doublet regimen significantly extended OS in ED-SCLC patients, particularly among certain subgroups, suggesting its potential value in personalized treatment strategies. Further investigation is warranted to validate these findings.

Risk of Macrophage Activation Syndrome in Patients with Adult-Onset Still's Disease Treated with IL-1 and IL-6 Inhibitors: A Meta-analysis and Single-Center Experience

INTRODUCTION

Patients with adult-onset Still's disease (AOSD) are at risk of developing macrophage activation syndrome (MAS), a life-threatening condition. Some cases of MAS have been reported following the use of biological agents, highlighting the need to identify contributing factors. This study aims to examine the characteristics of MAS in patients with AOSD treated with anakinra (ANA) or tocilizumab (TCZ).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across four online databases to identify studies reporting the incidence rates of MAS in patients with AOSD treated with ANA or TCZ. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model and the generic inverse variance method to estimate the pooled incidence rates. The difference in incidence rates of MAS between TCZ and ANA was assessed. Additionally, we analyzed laboratory data and clinical features of AOSD cases at our institution, stratifying them into two groups: those who developed MAS after TCZ administration and those who did not.

RESULTS

Of the 455 screened articles, we included five ANA and six TCZ studies. The pooled incidence rates of MAS were 1.50% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0-3.36) for ANA (345 patients) and 14.01% (95% CI 4.51-23.51) for TCZ (94 patients). MAS incidence was significantly higher in the TCZ group (P = 0.01). Among the 17 patients from our institution, the six patients who developed MAS had significantly higher white blood cell and neutrophil counts, as well as elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, and ferritin before TCZ induction (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AOSD, the manifestation of MAS is influenced by multiple causative factors. Consequently, the administration of TCZ should be approached with caution, particularly in patients exhibiting elevated inflammatory markers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was registered with the Clinical Trial Registry of the University Hospital Medical Information Network (Japan) as UMIN000049243.

Cardiotoxicity Associated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have shown significant efficacy in various cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer, small cell lung cancer, melanoma, classical Hodgkin lymphoma, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, urothelial cancer, and renal cell carcinoma [...].

The Complex Interaction between Proton Pump Inhibitors and Cancer Treatment

We have read the article authored by Rizzo et al [...].

Clinical Utility of Computed Tomography-Derived Myocardial Extracellular Volume Fraction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT)-derived extracellular volume fraction (ECV) is a noninvasive method to quantify myocardial fibrosis. Although studies suggest CT is a suitable measure of ECV, clinical use remains limited.

OBJECTIVES

A meta-analysis was performed to determine the clinical value of CT-derived ECV in cardiovascular diseases.

METHODS

Electronic database searches of PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane advanced search, and EMBASE were performed. The most pivotal analysis entailed the comparison of ECV ascertained through CT-ECV among the control, aortic stenosis, and cardiac amyloidosis cohorts. The diagnostic test accuracy for detecting cardiac amyloidosis was assessed using summary receiver-operating characteristics curve.

RESULTS

Pooled CT-derived ECV values were 28.5% (95% CI: 27.3%-29.7%) in the control, 31.9 (95% CI: 30.2%-33.8%) in the aortic stenosis, and 48.9% (95% CI: 44.5%-53.3%) in the cardiac amyloidosis group. ECV was significantly elevated in aortic stenosis (P = 0.002; vs controls) but further elevated in cardiac amyloidosis (P < 0.001; vs aortic stenosis). CT-derived ECV had a high diagnostic accuracy for cardiac amyloidosis, with sensitivity of 92.8% (95% CI: 86.7%-96.2%), specificity of 84.8% (95% CI: 68.6%-93.4%), and area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.88-1.00).

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of CT-derived ECV evaluation in cardiac disease. The high diagnostic accuracy of CT-ECV suggests the usefulness of CT-ECV in the diagnosis of cardiac amyloidosis in preoperative CT planning for transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

The Effectiveness and Safety of Long-Term Macrolide Therapy for COPD in Stable Status: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a prevalent condition with fewer treatments available as the severity increases. Previous systematic reviews have demonstrated the benefits of long-term macrolide use. However, the therapeutic differences between different macrolides and the optimal duration of use remain unclear. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effectiveness of long-term macrolide use in reducing COPD exacerbations, compare the therapeutic differences among macrolides, and determine the appropriate treatment duration. Four databases (PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and ICHU-SHI) were searched until 20 March 2023, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled effect. Results: The meta-analysis included nine randomized controlled trials involving 1965 patients. The analysis revealed an odds ratio (OR) of 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19, 0.59, p < 0.001) for the reduction in exacerbation frequency. Notably, only azithromycin or erythromycin showed suppression of COPD exacerbations. The ORs for reducing exacerbation frequency per year and preventing hospitalizations were -0.50 (95% CI: -0.81, -0.19; p = 0.001) and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.3, 0.97; p = 0.04), respectively. Statistical analyses showed no significant differences between three- and six-month macrolide prescriptions. However, studies involving a twelve-month prescription showed an OR of 0.27 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.68; p = 0.005; I2 = 81%). Although a significant improvement in St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total scores was observed with a mean difference of -4.42 (95% CI: -9.0, 0.16; p = 0.06; I2 = 94%), the minimal clinically important difference was not reached. While no adverse effects were observed between the two groups, several studies have reported an increase in bacterial resistance. Conclusions: Long-term use of azithromycin or erythromycin suppresses COPD exacerbations, and previous studies have supported the advantages of a 12-month macrolide prescription over a placebo.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Microvascular dysfunction in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although microvascular dysfunction (MVD) is considered an essential pathophysiology in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), the frequency and prognostic impact of MVD are not fully understood. This meta-analysis evaluated the frequency of MVD in patients with HFpEF and its utility in risk stratification.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

On May 26, 2022, a literature search was performed on PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane library, and Embase using the search terms such as "Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction," "HFpEF," "microvascular dysfunction," and "MVD." The prevalence of MVD in patients with HFpEF was calculated using the general inverse variance method. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to examine the association between MVD and prognosis in patients with HFpEF.

RESULTS

Data pertaining to a total of 941 patients diagnosed with HFpEF were extracted from the collective pool of 9 studies. The results of the meta-analysis revealed that the frequency of MVD among patients with HFpEF was found to be 55.5% (95% CI: 34.8%-76.2%), with a substantial degree of heterogeneity (I2  = 98%, p for heterogeneity <.001). Among the five studies that provided data on the association between MVD and prognosis, a significant statistical association was observed in four of them.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis revealed that approximately 50% of patients diagnosed with HFpEF exhibited MVD. Moreover, the presence of MVD demonstrated significant prognostic implications in multiple studies conducted on patients with HFpEF. These findings strongly suggest that MVD plays a crucial role in the underlying pathophysiology of patients with HFpEF.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.

Interpretation

Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

The clinical impact of comorbidities among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis undergoing anti-fibrotic treatment: A multicenter retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), few studies have investigated the clinical impact of anti-fibrotic treatment (AFT) with and without comorbidities. The aim of the study was to determine whether Charlson Comorbidity Index score (CCIS) can predict the efficacy of AFT in patients with IPF.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed data extracted from the medical records of IPF patients who received anti-fibrotic agents between 2009 and 2019. The collected data included age, sex, CCIS, pulmonary function test, high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) pattern, gender/age/physiology (GAP) score, and 3-year IPF-related events defined as the first acute exacerbation or death within 3 years after starting AFT.

RESULTS

We assessed 130 patients (median age, 74 years) who received nintedanib (n = 70) or pirfenidone (n = 60). Median duration of AFT was 425 days. Patients were categorized into high (≥ 3 points) and low (≤ 2 points) CCIS groups. There was no significant difference between the groups in terms of age, sex, duration of AFT, GAP score, or incidence of usual interstitial pneumonia pattern on HRCT except percentage predicted diffusion capacity of lung for carbon monoxide. Also, significant difference was not seen between the groups for 3-year IPF-related events (P = 0.75). Especially, in the low CCIS group but not the high CCIS group, the longer duration of AFT had better disease outcome.

CONCLUSION

In the present study, we could not show any relation between CCIS and IPF disease outcomes in patients undergoing AFT, though the longer duration of AFT might be beneficial for IPF outcomes among patients with low CCIS.

Adverse events induced by durvalumab and tremelimumab combination regimens: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have shown remarkable therapeutic outcomes among cancer patients. Durvalumab plus tremelimumab (DT) is under investigation as a new ICI combination therapy, and its efficacy has been reported in various types of cancer. However, the safety profile of DT remains unclear, especially considering rare adverse events (AEs).

Objective

We aimed to assess the frequency of AEs associated with DT.

Design

This study type is a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data Sources and Methods

Four databases were searched for articles. Randomized trials, single-arm trials, and prospective and retrospective observational studies were included. The type of cancer, previous treatment, and performance status were not questioned. Major AE indicators such as any AE and the pooled frequency of each specific AE were used as outcomes. As a subgroup analysis, we also compared cases in which DT was performed as first-line treatment with those in which it was performed as second-line or later treatment. The protocol for this systematic review was registered on the University Hospital Medical Information Network (UMIN) Center website (ID: UMIN000046751).

Results

Forty-one populations including 3099 patients were selected from 30 articles. Pooled frequencies of key AE indicators are shown below: any AEs, 77.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 67.9-87.6]; grade ⩾ 3 AEs, 29.3% (95% CI: 24.2-34.4); serious AEs, 34.9% (95% CI: 28.1-41.7); AE leading to discontinuation, 13.3% (95% CI: 9.3-17.4); treatment-related deaths, 0.98% (95% CI: 0.5-1.5). AEs with a frequency exceeding 15% are shown below: fatigue, 30.1% (95% CI: 23.8-36.3); diarrhea, 21.7% (95% CI: 17.8-25.6); pruritus 17.9% (95% CI: 14.4-21.3); decreased appetite, 17.7% (95% CI: 13.7-22.0); nausea, 15.6% (95% CI: 12.1-19.6). There were no significant differences in these pooled frequencies between subgroups.

Conclusions

The incidence of any AE in DT therapy was approximately 78%, and the incidence of grade 3 or higher AEs was approximately 30%, which was independent of prior therapy.

Aetiological agents of adult community-acquired pneumonia in Japan: systematic review and meta-analysis of published data

OBJECTIVE

Epidemiological information is essential in providing appropriate empiric antimicrobial therapy for pneumonia. This study aimed to clarify the epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) by conducting a systematic review of published studies in Japan.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCE

PubMed and Ichushi web database (January 1970 to October 2022).

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Clinical studies describing pathogenic micro-organisms in CAP written in English or Japanese, excluding studies on pneumonia other than adult CAP, investigations limited to specific pathogens and case reports.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Patient setting (inpatient vs outpatient), number of patients, concordance with the CAP guidelines, diagnostic criteria and methods for diagnosing pneumonia pathogens as well as the numbers of each isolate. A meta-analysis of various situations was performed to measure the frequency of each aetiological agent.

RESULTS

Fifty-six studies were included and 17 095 cases of CAP were identified. Pathogens were undetectable in 44.1% (95% CI 39.7% to 48.5%). Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common cause of CAP requiring hospitalisation or outpatient care (20.0% (95% CI 17.2% to 22.8%)), followed by Haemophilus influenzae (10.8% (95% CI 7.3% to 14.3%)) and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (7.5% (95% CI 4.6% to 10.4%)). However, when limited to CAP requiring hospitalisation, Staphylococcus aureus was the third most common at 4.9% (95% CI 3.9% to 5.8%). Pseudomonas aeruginosa was more frequent in hospitalised cases, while atypical pathogens were less common. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus accounted for 40.7% (95% CI 29.0% to 52.4%) of S. aureus cases. In studies that used PCR testing for pan-respiratory viral pathogens, human enterovirus/human rhinovirus (9.4% (95% CI 0% to 20.5%)) and several other respiratory pathogenic viruses were detected. The epidemiology varied depending on the methodology and situation.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiology of CAP varies depending on the situation, such as in the hospital versus outpatient setting. Viruses are more frequently detected by exhaustive genetic searches, resulting in a significant variation in epidemiology.

Efficient detection of somatic UBA1 variants and clinical scoring system predicting patients with variants in VEXAS syndrome

OBJECTIVES

To efficiently detect somatic UBA1 variants and establish a clinical scoring system predicting patients with pathogenic variants in VEXAS (vacuoles, E1 enzyme, X-linked, autoinflammatory, somatic) syndrome.

METHODS

Eighty-nine Japanese patients with clinically suspected VEXAS syndrome were recruited [81 males and 8 females; median onset age (IQR) 69.3 years (62.1-77.6)]. Peptide nucleic acid-clamping PCR (PNA-PCR), regular PCR targeting exon 3 clustering UBA1 variants, and subsequent Sanger sequencing were conducted for variant screening. Partitioning digital PCR (pdPCR) or targeted amplicon deep sequencing (TAS) was also performed to evaluate the variant allele frequency (VAF). We developed our clinical scoring system to predict UBA1 variant-positive and ‑negative patients and assessed the diagnostic value of our system using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Forty patients with reported pathogenic UBA1 variants (40/89, 44.9%) were identified, including a case having a variant with VAF of 1.7%, using a highly sensitive method. Our clinical scoring system considering >50 years of age, cutaneous lesions, lung involvement, chondritis, and macrocytic anaemia efficiently predicted patients with UBA1 variants (the area under the curve for the scoring total was 0.908).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic screening with the combination of regular PCR and PNA-PCR detected somatic UBA1 variants with high sensitivity and specificity. Our scoring system could efficiently predict patients with UBA1 variants.

＜Editors' Choice＞ Comparison of clinical features between patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic interstitial pneumonia and collagen vascular disease-associated interstitial pneumonia

Acute exacerbation (AE) of interstitial pneumonia (IP) shows poor prognosis, due to the typical histological pattern of diffuse alveolar damage superimposed upon lung fibrosis. The previous reports comparing clinical features between AE of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs) and those of IPs with known etiology are limited. We retrospectively compared clinical parameters including age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index score (CCIS), blood biomarkers at diagnosis of AE, treatment, and 3-month mortality between patients with AE of IIPs and collagen vascular disease-associated interstitial pneumonia (CVD-IP). We assessed 85 patients, comprising 66 patients with AE of IIPs (78%) and 19 patients with AE of CVD-IP (22%). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression selected CCIS (hazard ratio, 1.281; 95% confidence interval, 1.055-1.556; P = 0.012) and log serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (hazard ratio, 6.267; 95% confidence interval, 2.172-18.085; P < 0.001) as significant predictors of 3-month mortality among these patients. Also, the adjusted survival curves using sex, CCIS, and serum LDH showed no significant differences between these two groups. In conclusion, among AE patients, CCIS and serum LDH level may be more important prognostic factors for 3-month mortality rather than two classification of IP subtypes: IIPs and CVD-IP.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnostic accuracy of whole heart coronary magnetic resonance angiography: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to comprehensively investigate the diagnostic ability of 1.5 T and 3.0 T whole heart coronary angiography (WHCA) to detect significant coronary artery disease (CAD) on X-ray coronary angiography.

METHODS

A literature search of electronic databases, including PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane advanced search, and EMBASE, was performed to retrieve and integrate articles showing significant CAD detectability of 1.5 and 3.0 T WHCA.

RESULTS

Data from 1899 patients from 34 studies were included in the meta-analysis. 1.5 T WHCA had a summary area under ROC of 0.88 in the patient-based analysis, 0.90 in the vessel-based analysis, and 0.92 in the segment-based analysis. These values for 3.0 T WHCA were 0.94, 0.95, 0.96, respectively. Contrast-enhanced 3.0 T WHCA had significantly higher specificity than non-contrast-enhanced 1.5 T WHCA on a patient-based analysis (0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.92 vs. 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.82, P = 0.02). There were no differences in diagnostic performance on a patient-based analysis by use of vasodilators, beta-blockers or between Asian and Western countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The diagnostic performance of WHCA was deemed satisfactory, with contrast-enhanced 3.0 T WHCA exhibiting higher specificity compared to non-contrast-enhanced 1.5 T WHCA in a patient-based analysis. There were no significant differences in diagnostic performance on a patient-based analysis in terms of vasodilator or beta-blocker use, nor between Asian and Western countries. However, further large-scale multicentre studies are crucial for the widespread global adoption of WHCA.

Variant STAT4 and Response to Ruxolitinib in an Autoinflammatory Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Disabling pansclerotic morphea (DPM) is a rare systemic inflammatory disorder, characterized by poor wound healing, fibrosis, cytopenias, hypogammaglobulinemia, and squamous-cell carcinoma. The cause is unknown, and mortality is high.

METHODS

We evaluated four patients from three unrelated families with an autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance of DPM. Genomic sequencing independently identified three heterozygous variants in a specific region of the gene that encodes signal transducer and activator of transcription 4 (STAT4). Primary skin fibroblast and cell-line assays were used to define the functional nature of the genetic defect. We also assayed gene expression using single-cell RNA sequencing of peripheral-blood mononuclear cells to identify inflammatory pathways that may be affected in DPM and that may respond to therapy.

RESULTS

Genome sequencing revealed three novel heterozygous missense gain-of-function variants in STAT4. In vitro, primary skin fibroblasts showed enhanced interleukin-6 secretion, with impaired wound healing, contraction of the collagen matrix, and matrix secretion. Inhibition of Janus kinase (JAK)-STAT signaling with ruxolitinib led to improvement in the hyperinflammatory fibroblast phenotype in vitro and resolution of inflammatory markers and clinical symptoms in treated patients, without adverse effects. Single-cell RNA sequencing revealed expression patterns consistent with an immunodysregulatory phenotype that were appropriately modified through JAK inhibition.

CONCLUSIONS

Gain-of-function variants in STAT4 caused DPM in the families that we studied. The JAK inhibitor ruxolitinib attenuated the dermatologic and inflammatory phenotype in vitro and in the affected family members. (Funded by the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology Foundation and others.).

Long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) plus long-acting beta-agonist (LABA) versus LABA plus inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) for stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs), long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs), and inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) are inhaled medications used to manage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). When two classes of medications are required, a LAMA plus an ICS (LABA+ICS) were previously recommended within a single inhaler as the first-line treatment for managing stable COPD in people in high-risk categories. However, updated international guidance recommends a LAMA plus a LABA (LAMA+LABA). This systematic review is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in 2017.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the benefits and harms of LAMA+LABA versus LABA+ICS for treatment of people with stable COPD.

SEARCH METHODS

We performed an electronic search of the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization Clinical Trials Search Portal, followed by handsearches. Two review authors screened the selected articles. The most recent search was run on 10 September 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included parallel or cross-over randomised controlled trials of at least one month's duration, comparing LAMA+LABA and LABA+ICS for stable COPD. We included studies conducted in an outpatient setting and irrespective of blinding.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and evaluated risk of bias. We resolved any discrepancies through discussion. We analysed dichotomous data as odds ratios (ORs), and continuous data as mean differences (MDs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Review Manager 5. Primary outcomes were: participants with one or more exacerbations of COPD; serious adverse events; quality of life, as measured by the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score change from baseline; and trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). We used the GRADE framework to rate our certainty of the evidence in each meta-analysis as high, moderate, low or very low.  MAIN RESULTS: This review updates the first version of the review, published in 2017, and increases the number of included studies from 11 to 19 (22,354 participants). The median number of participants per study was 700. In each study, between 54% and 91% (median 70%) of participants were males. Study participants had an average age of 64 years and percentage predicted FEV1 of 51.5% (medians of study means). Included studies had a generally low risk of selection, performance, detection, attrition, and reporting biases. All but two studies were sponsored by pharmaceutical companies, which had varying levels of involvement in study design, conduct, and data analysis. Primary outcomes The odds of having an exacerbation were similar for LAMA+LABA compared with LABA+ICS (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.06; I2 = 61%; 13 studies, 20,960 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). The odds of having a serious adverse event were also similar (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.15; I2 = 20%; 18 studies, 23,183 participants; high-certainty evidence). Participants receiving LAMA+LABA had a similar improvement in quality of life, as measured by the SGRQ, to those receiving LABA+ICS (MD -0.57, 95% CI -1.36 to 0.21; I2 = 78%; 9 studies, 14,437 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) but showed a greater improvement in trough FEV1 (MD 0.07, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.08; I2 = 73%; 12 studies, 14,681 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).  Secondary outcomes LAMA+LABA decreased the odds of pneumonia compared with LABA+ICS from 5% to 3% (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.72; I2 = 0%; 14 studies, 21,829 participants; high-certainty evidence) but increased the odds of all-cause death from 1% to 1.4% (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.75; I2 = 0%; 15 studies, 21,510 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). The odds of achieving a minimal clinically important difference of four or more points on the SGRQ were similar between LAMA+LABA and LABA+ICS (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.25; I2 = 77%; 4 studies, 13,614 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Combination LAMA+LABA therapy probably holds similar benefits to LABA+ICS for exacerbations and quality of life, as measured by the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire, for people with moderate to severe COPD, but offers a larger improvement in FEV1 and a slightly lower risk of pneumonia. There is little to no difference between LAMA+LABA and LAMA+ICS in the odds of having a serious adverse event. Whilst all-cause death may be lower with LABA+ICS, there was a very small number of events in the analysis, translating to a low absolute risk. Findings are based on moderate- to high-certainty evidence from heterogeneous trials with an observation period of less than one year. This review should be updated again in a few years.

Local Control Correlates with Overall Survival in Radiotherapy for Early-stage Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review

PURPOSE

Local control (LC) is an important outcome of local cancer therapy, besides overall survival (OS). We conducted a comprehensive literature search to investigate whether a high LC rate contributes to good OS in radiotherapy for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Studies in patients receiving radiotherapy for peripheral ES-NSCLC, mainly staged as T1-2N0M0 were included for a systematic review. Relevant information was collected including, dose fractionation, T stage, median age, 3-year LC, cancer-specific survival (CSS), disease-free survival (DFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and OS. Correlations between outcomes and clinical variables were evaluated.

RESULTS

After screening, 101 data points from 87 studies including 13,435 patients were selected for the quantitative synthesis. Univariate meta-regression analysis revealed that the coefficients between the 3-year LC and 3-year DFS, DMFS, CSS, and OS were 0.753 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.307-1.199; p<0.001), 0.360 (95% CI: 0.128-0.593; p=0.002), 0.766 (95% CI: 0.489-1.044; p<0.001), and 0.574 (95% CI: 0.275-0.822; p<0.001), respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that the 3-year LC (coefficient, 0.561; 95% CI: 0.254-0.830; p<0.001) and T1 proportion (coefficient, 0.207; 95% CI: 0.030-0.385; p=0.012) were significantly associated with the 3-year OS and CSS (coefficient for 3-year LC, 0.720; 95% CI: 0.468-0.972; p<0.001 and T1 proportion, 0.002; 95% CI: 0.000-0.003; p=0.012). Toxicities ≥grade 3 were low (3.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Three-year LC was correlated with three-year OS in patients receiving radiotherapy for ES-NSCLC. A 5% increase in 3-year LC is expected to improve the 3-year CSS and OS rates by 3.8% and 2.8%, respectively.

Incidence and Risk of Hematological Adverse Events Associated With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been a breakthrough in cancer therapy. ICI therapy is generally better tolerated than cytotoxic chemotherapy; however, hematological adverse events (AEs) have not been fully analyzed. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the incidence and risk of ICI-related hematological AEs.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and the Web of Science Core Collection. Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving ICI combination regimens were selected. The experimental group received ICIs with systemic treatment, and the control group received only the same systemic treatment. Odds ratios (ORs) for anemia, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia were calculated using a random-model meta-analysis.

Results

We identified 29 RCTs with 20,033 patients. The estimated incidence rates for anemia of all grades and grades III-V were 36.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 30.23 - 42.75) and 4.1% (95% CI 3.85 - 4.42), respectively. The incidence of neutropenia (all grades 29.7%, grades III-V 5.3%) and thrombocytopenia (all grades 18.0%, grades III-V 1.6%) was also calculated.

Conclusion

Treatment with ICIs seemed unlikely to increase the incidence of anemia, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia in all grades. However, programmed cell death-1 receptor ligand inhibitors significantly increased the risk of grades III-V thrombocytopenia (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.11 - 2.11). Further research is needed to examine the potential risk factors.