Is the emergency department used as a substitute or a complement to primary care in Medicaid?

Policies to decrease low-acuity emergency department (ED) use have traditionally assumed that EDs are a substitute for unavailable primary care (PC). However, such policies can exacerbate ED overcrowding, rather than ameliorate it, if patients use EDs to complement, rather than substitute, their PC use. We tested whether Medicaid managed care enrolees visit the ED for nonemergent and PC treatable conditions to substitute for or to complement PC. Based on consumer choice theory, we modelled county-level monthly ED visit rate as a function of PC supply and used 2012-2015 New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) outpatient data and non-linear least squares method to test substitution vs complementarity. In the post-Medicaid expansion period (2014-2015), ED and PC are substitutes state-wide, but are complements in highly urban and poorer counties during nights and weekends. There is no evidence of complementarity before the expansion (2012-2013). Analyses by PC provider demonstrate that the relationship between ED and PC differs depending on whether PC is provided by physicians or advanced practice providers. Policies to reduce low-acuity ED use via improved PC access in Medicaid are likely to be most effective if they focus on increasing actual appointment availability, ideally by physicians, in areas with low PC provider supply. Different aspects of PC access may be differently related to low-acuity ED use.

US trends in social isolation, social engagement, and companionship ⎯ nationally and by age, sex, race/ethnicity, family income, and work hours, 2003-2020

Social connectedness is essential for health and longevity, while isolation exacts a heavy toll on individuals and society. We present U.S. social connectedness magnitudes and trends as target phenomena to inform calls for policy-based approaches to promote social health. Using the 2003-2020 American Time Use Survey, this study finds that, nationally, social isolation increased, social engagement with family, friends, and 'others' (roommates, neighbors, acquaintances, coworkers, clients, etc.) decreased, and companionship (shared leisure and recreation) decreased. Joinpoint analysis showed that the pandemic exacerbated upward trends in social isolation and downward trends in non-household family, friends, and 'others' social engagement. However, household family social engagement and companionship showed signs of progressive decline years prior to the pandemic, at a pace not eclipsed by the pandemic. Work hours emerged as a structural constraint to social engagement. Sub-groups allocated social engagement differently across different relationship roles. Social engagement with friends, others, and in companionship plummeted for young Americans. Black Americans experienced more social isolation and less social engagement, overall, relative to other races. Hispanics experienced much less social isolation than non-Hispanics. Older adults spent more time in social isolation, but also relatively more time in companionship. Women spent more time with family while men spent more time with friends and in companionship. And, men's social connectedness decline was steeper than for women. Finally, low-income Americans are more socially engaged with 'others' than those with higher income. We discuss potential avenues of future research and policy initiatives that emerge from our findings.

Are Increasing Trends in Opioid-Related Hospitalizations Attributable to Increases in Diagnosis Recordability? Evidence from 2 Large States

Based on calculations using all-listed diagnoses, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) reports increasing national trends in opioid-related hospitalizations. It is unclear whether the reported increases are attributable to increases in available diagnosis fields. We leveraged increases in available diagnosis fields, ie, diagnosis recordability, in 2 states to examine their effects on opioid-related hospitalizations, graphically and with nonlinear least squares. Hospitalization data from Texas (1999-2011, N = 36 593 049) and New York (2005-2015Q3, N = 27 582 208) were aggregated to quarter-year in each state. Opioid-related hospitalizations were identified using the same International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) Diagnosis Codes as AHRQ. In Texas, the increase in diagnosis recordability resulted in a 29.9% discrete shift in the number of recorded opioid diagnoses and a 3-fold increase in the slope. In New York, a smaller discrete shift (3.1%) and a 3-fold increase in the slope were identified, although a more pronounced change in the trend occurred 5 years earlier (slope change from flat to increasing). Increases in recordability lead to a broader definition of opioid-related hospitalizations, if all-listed diagnoses are used; we found that more hospitalizations are identified using the postchange definition than with the prechange definition (9.7% more in Texas and 4.9% more in New York after 4 years). We conclude that reported increases in opioid-related hospitalizations are partially attributable to increases in diagnosis recordability. Cross-state and temporal comparisons of opioid-related hospitalization rates based on all-listed diagnoses can misrepresent the true relative extent of opioid-related hospital use and therefore of the opioid epidemic.

Did Medicaid expansion matter in states with generous Medicaid?

OBJECTIVES

It is unclear whether the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act had an effect on coverage in states with relatively generous pre-expansion Medicaid eligibility levels. We examined the effect of the Medicaid expansions on Medicaid coverage in 4 generous states: New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Delaware.

STUDY DESIGN

We used the American Community Survey (2011-2016) to estimate effects on coverage among nonelderly adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level.

METHODS

We estimated differences in differences (DID) in marginal probabilities following probit models, comparing New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Delaware with nonexpansion states on the East Coast.

RESULTS

There is strong evidence of the effect in New York: DID estimates ranged from 3.3 to 5.2 percentage points. There is weak or no evidence of coverage gains in the other 3 states. Pronounced effects were found among the racial/ethnic majority (white, non-Hispanic white, and nonblack populations) in New York, as well as the working poor and previously eligible in New York and Massachusetts.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in states with relatively generous pre-expansion Medicaid programs, the expansion can produce nontrivial coverage gains, as evidenced by New York. Our findings of spillover effects may indicate the relative importance and success of a simplified enrollment process and increased media coverage in boosting enrollment in Medicaid. Our subgroup analyses highlight a potential need to improve access to office-based care to accommodate the growing population of the working poor on Medicaid and potential changes in the Medicaid risk pool served by managed care organizations and subsequent decreases in capitated payments.

Harnessing Expert Judgment to Support Clinical Decisions When the Evidence Base Is Weak

PURPOSE

In the process of developing an evidence-based decision dashboard to support treatment decisions for patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer, we found that the clinical evidence base is insufficient to provide high-quality comparative outcome data. We therefore sought to determine if clinically acceptable outcome estimates could be created using a modified version of the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF), a formal method for eliciting judgments regarding probability distributions of expected decision outcomes.

METHODS

We asked a panel of 3 urologists, 4 radiation oncologists, and 2 medical oncologists to estimate the probabilities of 11 treatment outcomes based on their clinical experience and an annotated evidence summary. The estimates were elicited using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet containing a self-guided, adapted version of the SHELF Roulette method distributed via email. We created combined outcome estimates by taking the mean values of the panel members' upper and lower 95% bounds for each outcome. The combined estimates were then distributed via email to the panel for final approval.

RESULTS

Eight of the 9 responses were judged to be correct applications of the SHELF method and included in the combined outcome estimates. The final set of outcome estimates was unanimously accepted by the clinician panel members and used to create a decision dashboard suitable for clinical use and evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Many important health care decisions need to be made in situations where the evidence base is inadequate. Use of a formal protocol for eliciting expert judgments is feasible and can be used to promote evidence-based practice by providing a powerful tool to facilitate the combination of professional judgment with research evidence and patient preferences to guide clinical decisions.

The Feasibility of Sophisticated Multicriteria Support for Clinical Decisions

BACKGROUND

Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are well-suited to serve as the foundation for clinical decision support systems. To do so, however, they need to be appropriate for use in busy clinical settings. We compared decision-making processes and outcomes of patient-level analyses done with a range of multicriteria methods that vary in ease of use and intensity of decision support, 2 factors that could affect their ease of implementation into practice.

METHODS

We conducted a series of Internet surveys to compare the effects of 5 multicriteria methods that differ in user interface and required user input format on decisions regarding selection of a preferred method for lowering the risk of cardiovascular disease. The study sample consisted of members of an online Internet panel maintained by Fluidsurveys, an Internet survey company. Study outcomes were changes in preferred option, decision confidence, preparation for decision making, the Values Clarification and Decisional Uncertainty subscales of the Decisional Conflict Scale, and method ease of use.

RESULTS

The frequency of changes in the preferred option ranged from 9% to 38%, P < 0.001, and rose progressively as the level of decision support provided by the MCDM method increased. The proportion of respondents who rated the method as easy ranged from 57% to 79% and differed significantly among MCDM methods, P = 0.003, but was not consistently related to intensity of decision support or ease of use.

CONCLUSION

Decision support based on MCDM methods is not necessarily limited by decreases in ease of use. This result suggests that it is possible to develop decision support tools using sophisticated multicriteria techniques suitable for use in routine clinical care settings.

Should Health Numeracy Be Assessed Objectively or Subjectively?

INTRODUCTION

Because current evidence suggests that numeracy affects how people make decisions, it is an important factor to account for in studies assessing the effectiveness of medical decision support interventions. Subjective and objective numeracy assessment methods are available that vary in theoretical background, skills assessed, known relationship with decision making skills, and ease of implementation. The best way to use these tools to assess numeracy when conducting medical decision-making research is currently unknown.

METHODS

We conducted Internet surveys comparing numeracy assessments obtained using the subjective numeracy scale (SNS) and 5 objective numeracy scales. Each study participant completed the SNS and 1 objective numeracy measure. Following each assessment, participants indicated willingness to repeat the assessment and rated its user acceptability.

RESULTS

The overall response rate was 78%, resulting in a total sample size of 673. Spearman correlations between the SNS and the objective numeracy measures ranged from 0.19 to 0.44. Acceptability assessments for the short form of the Numeracy Understanding in Medicine Instrument and the SNS did not differ significantly. The other objective scales all had lower acceptability ratings than the SNS.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are consistent with prior research suggesting that objective and subjective numeracy scales measure related but distinct constructs. Due to current uncertainty regarding which construct is more likely to influence the effectiveness of decision support interventions, these findings warrant further investigation to determine the proper use of objective versus subjective numeracy assessments in medical decision-making research. Pending additional information, a reasonable approach is to measure both objective and subjective numeracy so that the full range of actual and perceived numeracy skills can be taken into account.

Decision Aids: The Effect of Labeling Options on Patient Choices and Decision Making

BACKGROUND

Conscious and unconscious biases can influence how people interpret new information and make decisions. Current standards for creating decision aids, however, do not address this issue.

METHOD

Using a 2×2 factorial design, we developed surveys that contained a decision scenario (involving a choice between aspirin or a statin drug to lower risk of heart attack) and a decision aid. Each aid presented identical information about reduction in heart attack risk and likelihood of a major side effect. They differed in whether the options were labeled and the amount of decisional guidance: information only (a balance sheet) versus information plus values clarification (a multicriteria decision analysis). We sent the surveys to members of 2 Internet survey panels. After using the decision aid, participants indicated their preferred medication. Those using a multicriteria decision aid also judged differences in the comparative outcome data provided for the 2 options and the relative importance of achieving benefits versus avoiding risks in making the decision.

RESULTS

The study sample size was 536. Participants using decision aids with unlabeled options were more likely to choose a statin: 56% versus 25% (P < 0.001). The type of decision aid made no difference. This effect persisted after adjustment for differences in survey company, age, gender, education level, health literacy, and numeracy. Participants using unlabeled decision aids were also more likely to interpret the data presented as favoring a statin with regard to both treatment benefits and risk of side effects (P ≤ 0.01). There were no significant differences in decision priorities (P = 0.21).

CONCLUSION

Identifying the options in patient decision aids can influence patient preferences and change how they interpret comparative outcome data.

Prehospital Trauma Triage Decision-making: A Model of What Happens between the 9-1-1 Call and the Hospital

We describe the decision-making process used by emergency medical services (EMS) providers in order to understand how 1) injured patients are evaluated in the prehospital setting; 2) field triage criteria are applied in-practice; and 3) selection of a destination hospital is determined. We conducted separate focus groups with advanced and basic life support providers from rural and urban/suburban regions. Four exploratory focus groups were conducted to identify overarching themes and five additional confirmatory focus groups were conducted to verify initial focus group findings and provide additional detail regarding trauma triage decision-making and application of field triage criteria. All focus groups were conducted by a public health researcher with formal training in qualitative research. A standardized question guide was used to facilitate discussion at all focus groups. All focus groups were audio-recorded and transcribed. Responses were coded and categorized into larger domains to describe how EMS providers approach trauma triage and apply the Field Triage Decision Scheme. We conducted 9 focus groups with 50 EMS providers. Participants highlighted that trauma triage is complex and there is often limited time to make destination decisions. Four overarching domains were identified within the context of trauma triage decision-making: 1) initial assessment; 2) importance of speed versus accuracy; 3) usability of current field triage criteria; and 4) consideration of patient and emergency care system-level factors. Field triage is a complex decision-making process which involves consideration of many patient and system-level factors. The decision model presented in this study suggests that EMS providers place significant emphasis on speed of decisions, relying on initial impressions and immediately observable information, rather than precise measurement of vital signs or systematic application of field triage criteria.

Regulatory focus affects physician risk tolerance

Risk tolerance is a source of variation in physician decision-making. This variation, if independent of clinical concerns, can result in mistaken utilization of health services. To address such problems, it will be helpful to identify nonclinical factors of risk tolerance, particularly those amendable to intervention-regulatory focus theory suggests such a factor. This study tested whether regulatory focus affects risk tolerance among primary care physicians. Twenty-seven primary care physicians were assigned to promotion-focused or prevention-focused manipulations and compared on the Risk Taking Attitudes in Medical Decision Making scale using a randomization test. Results provide evidence that physicians assigned to the promotion-focus manipulation adopted an attitude of greater risk tolerance than the physicians assigned to the prevention-focused manipulation (p = 0.01). The Cohen's d statistic was conventionally large at 0.92. Results imply that situational regulatory focus in primary care physicians affects risk tolerance and may thereby be a nonclinical source of practice variation. Results also provide marginal evidence that chronic regulatory focus is associated with risk tolerance (p = 0.05), but the mechanism remains unclear. Research and intervention targeting physician risk tolerance may benefit by considering situational regulatory focus as an explanatory factor.

How Older Persons Structure Information in the Decision to Seek Medical Care

Typical models of the decision to seek care consider information as a single conceptual object. This paper presents an alternative that allows multiple objects. For older persons seeking care, results support this alternative. Older decision-makers that segregate information into multiple conceptual objects assessed separately are characterized by socio-demographic (younger age, racial category, non-Hispanic, higher education, higher income, and not married), health status (better general health for men and worse general health for women, fewer known illnesses), and neuropsychological (less memory loss for men, trouble concentrating and trouble making decisions for men) factors. Results of this study support the conclusion that older persons are more likely to integrate information, and individuals with identifiable characteristics are more likely to do so than others. The theory tested in this study implies a potential explanation for misutilization of care (either over or under-utilization).

Who avoids going to the doctor and why? Audience segmentation analysis for application of message development

This exploratory study examines the prevalent and detrimental health care phenomenon of patient delay in order to inform formative research leading to the design of communication strategies. Delayed medical care diminishes optimal treatment choices, negatively impacts prognosis, and increases medical costs. Various communication strategies have been employed to combat patient delay, with limited success. This study fills a gap in research informing those interventions by focusing on the portion of patient delay occurring after symptoms have been assessed as a sign of illness and the need for medical care has been determined. We used CHAID segmentation analysis to produce homogeneous segments from the sample according to the propensity to avoid medical care. CHAID is a criterion-based predictive cluster analysis technique. CHAID examines a variety of characteristics to find the one most strongly associated with avoiding doctor visits through a chi-squared test and assessment of statistical significance. The characteristics identified then define the segments. Fourteen segments were produced. Age was the first delineating characteristic, with younger age groups comprising a greater proportion of avoiders. Other segments containing a comparatively larger percent of avoiders were characterized by lower income, lower education, being uninsured, and being male. Each segment was assessed for psychographic properties associated with avoiding care, reasons for avoiding care, and trust in health information sources. While the segments display distinct profiles, having had positive provider experiences, having high health self-efficacy, and having an internal rather than external or chance locus of control were associated with low avoidance among several segments. Several segments were either more or less likely to cite time or money as the reason for avoiding care. And several older aged segments were less likely than the remaining sample to trust the government as a source for health information. Implications for future research are discussed.

Is personality associated with health care use by older adults?

CONTEXT

The patterns of health care utilization in the United States pose well-established challenges for public policy. Although economic and sociological research has resulted in considerable knowledge about what influences the use of health services, the psychological literature in this area is underdeveloped. Importantly, it is not known whether personality traits are associated with older adults' use of acute and long-term care services.

METHODS

Data were collected from 1,074 community-dwelling seniors participating in a Medicare demonstration. First they completed a self-report questionnaire measuring the "Big Five" personality traits: Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness. During the next two years, the participants maintained daily journals of their use of health care services. We used regression models based on the Andersen behavioral model of health care utilization to test for associations.

FINDINGS

Our hypothesis that higher Neuroticism would be associated with greater health care use was confirmed for three services-probability of any emergency department (ED) use, likelihood of any custodial nursing home use, and more skilled nursing facility (SNF) days for SNF users-but was disconfirmed for hospital days for those hospitalized. Higher Openness to Experience was associated with a greater likelihood of custodial home care use, and higher Agreeableness and lower Conscientiousness with a higher probability of custodial nursing home use. For users, lower Openness was associated with more ED visits and SNF days, and lower Conscientiousness with more ED visits. For many traits with significant associations, the predicted use was 16 to 30 percent greater for people high (low) versus low (high) in specific traits.

CONCLUSIONS

Personality traits are associated with Medicare beneficiaries' use of many expensive health care services, findings that have implications for health services research and policy. Accordingly, person-centered interventions, population-based translational effectiveness programs, and other personalized approaches that leverage the profound advances in personality psychology in recent decades should be considered.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard

Background

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.

Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement.

Methods

We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis.

Results

The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive.

Conclusions

Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making.

Identifying sincerity of effort based on the combined predictive ability of multiple grip strength tests

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective Cohort.

INTRODUCTION

Detecting sincerity of effort (SOE) of grip strength remains a frustrating and elusive task for hand therapists because there are no valid, reliable, or widely accepted assessments for identifying feigned effort. Some therapists use various combinations of different SOE tests in an attempt to identify feigned effort, but there is lack of evidence to support this practice.

PURPOSE

The present study examined the ability of a combination of three grip strength tests commonly used in the clinic to detect SOE: the five rung grip test, rapid exchange grip test, and coefficient of variation. A secondary purpose was to compare the predictive ability between the logistic and linear regression models.

METHODS

Healthy participants (n=146) performed the three SOE tests exerting both maximal and submaximal efforts. We compared the ability of two regression models, the logistic and linear models, to predict sincere versus insincere efforts.

RESULTS

Combining the three tests predicted SOE better than each test alone. Yet, the full logistic model, which was the best predictor of SOE, explained only 42% of variance and correctly classified only 58% of the efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support the clinical practice of combining these three tests to detect SOE.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Not applicable.

Cardiac resynchronization and quality of life in patients with minimally symptomatic heart failure

OBJECTIVES

This study compared the quality of life (QOL) of patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) to patients with an ICD only.

BACKGROUND

CRT with ICD is associated with a reduction in heart failure risk among minimally symptomatic patients. It is unknown whether this improves QOL.

METHODS

This study uses the MADIT-CRT (Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy) data. The MADIT-CRT enrolled 1,820 patients at 110 centers across 14 countries. Patients had ischemic cardiomyopathy (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class I or II) or nonischemic cardiomyopathy (NYHA functional class II only), sinus rhythm, an ejection fraction of 30% or less, and prolonged intraventricular conduction with a QRS duration of 130 ms or more. QOL was evaluated on the 1,699 patients with baseline and follow-up measures using the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Six dimensions (Physical Limitation, Symptom Stability, Symptom Frequency, Symptom Burden, Quality of Life, and Social Limitations) and 3 summary scores (Total Symptom, Clinical Summary, and Overall Summary) were analyzed.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 2.4 years, the CRT-ICD group had greater improvement than the ICD-only group on all KCCQ measures (p < 0.05 on each scale). These differences were significant among patients with left bundle branch block conduction disturbance (n = 1,204, p < 0.01 on each scale), but not among patients without left bundle branch block (n = 494).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with patients with ICD only, CRT-ICD is associated with greater improvement in QOL among relatively asymptomatic patients, specifically among those with left bundle branch conduction disturbance.

Coronary stent use in New York State in the drug-eluting stent era

OBJECTIVES

The drug-eluting stent (DES) was perceived as a revolutionary medical technology because of the lower risk of restenosis compared with bare metal stent (BMS). However, the safety of DES use was called into question in 2006 due to increased incidence of catastrophic late stent thrombosis. This study aims to describe coronary stent use in the DES era in New York State.

METHODS

Using New York State statewide hospital discharge database, we conducted descriptive analysis and logistic regression to examine the independent impacts of the introduction of DES and of the DES safety concern on DES utilization, controlling for patient demographics, co-morbidities and hospital effects.

RESULTS

In the first year following the introduction of DES technology, there was a 10-fold increase in the odds of DES use versus BMS use (AOR: 10.86, 95% CI: 9.84-11.99, P < 0.001). When the safety of DES use was called into question, the odds of DES utilization decreased by 75% over a 9-month period (AOR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.20-0.26, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Following the introduction of DES, there was a rapid adoption of DES by interventional cardiologists, followed by a rapid abandonment of DES when significant safety issues were raised. After the safety of DES was called into question, there was a reduction in the use of DES and in the use of stents in general.

Attitudes towards drug-eluting stent use and the distribution of motivation type among interventional cardiologists

OBJECTIVES

The safety of drug-eluting stent (DES) use was called into question in 2006. However, the attitudes towards DES use after DES safety concerns were expressed and the distribution of chronic motivation type among interventional cardiologists are unknown. This study aims to examine the current attitudes towards DES use among interventional cardiologists and to investigate the distribution of chronic motivation type among these doctors.

METHODS

A questionnaire survey of interventional cardiologists was conducted in New York State from October 2008 to April 2009. The questionnaire included face valid items to measure the attitudes towards DES use, valid Regulatory Focus Questionnaire to measure the chronic motivation type, and items collecting demographic information.

RESULTS

A total of 119 valid responses were received (response rate: 47%). There were no statistically significant differences regarding the demographic factors between the respondents and the non-respondents. The vast majority of interventional cardiologists (92%) agreed that 'DES is a revolutionary technology' and that 'DES use will increase in the future' (70%). The chronic motivation type of the respondents was predominantly sensitive to positive outcomes (89%).

CONCLUSIONS

Interventional cardiologists had a very positive attitude regarding DES technology and predicted future growth of DES use. The vast majority of interventional cardiologists were found to be concerned about achieving positive outcomes and wanted to prevent errors of omission. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report the distribution of chronic motivation type among doctors.

How well do commonly used data presentation formats support comparative effectiveness evaluations?

BACKGROUND

Good decisions depend on an accurate understanding of the comparative effectiveness of decision alternatives. The best way to convey data needed to support these comparisons is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To determine how well 5 commonly used data presentation formats convey comparative effectiveness information.

METHODS

The study was an Internet survey using a factorial design. Participants consisted of 279 members of an online survey panel. Study participants compared outcomes associated with 3 hypothetical screening test options relative to 5 possible outcomes with probabilities ranging from 2 per 5000 (0.04%) to 500 per 1000 (50%). Data presentation formats included a table, a "magnified" bar chart, a risk scale, a frequency diagram, and an icon array. Outcomes included the number of correct ordinal judgments regarding the more likely of 2 outcomes, the ratio of perceived versus actual relative likelihoods of the paired outcomes, the intersubject consistency of responses, and perceived clarity.

RESULTS

The mean number of correct ordinal judgments was 12 of 15 (80%), with no differences among data formats. On average, there was a 3.3-fold difference between perceived and actual likelihood ratios (95% confidence interval = 3.0-3.6). Comparative judgments based on flowcharts, icon arrays, and tables were all significantly more accurate and consistent than those based on risk scales and bar charts (P < 0.001). The most clearly perceived formats were the table and the flowchart. Low subjective numeracy was associated with less accurate and more variable data interpretations and lower perceived clarity for icon displays, bar charts, and flow diagrams.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the data presentation formats studied can reliably provide patients, especially those with low subjective numeracy, with an accurate understanding of comparative effectiveness information.

A role for regulatory focus in explaining and combating clinical inertia

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

It is well established that clinical inertia generates suboptimal care in patients with chronic diseases, and policies and interventions have yet to satisfactorily address the problem.

METHODS

This paper integrates the relevant literatures on clinical inertia and Regulatory Focus Theory (RFT) from psychology to identify an actionable explanatory mechanism.

RESULTS

We review RFT and show that it provides a mechanism that may explain key provider contributions to clinical inertia. We then identify two general intervention strategies based on RFT: one that changes individual sensitivity to positive/negative outcomes and another that maintains the sensitivity to positive/negative outcome but frames how information is provided to match the sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that RFT is a plausible explanation to guide the development of policies and interventions for mitigating clinical inertia.

Role of the gender-linked norm of toughness in the decision to engage in treatment for depression

OBJECTIVE

Given their prevalence and persuasive power in our culture, gender norms--commonly described as socially reinforced, learned expectations of what it means to be a man or a woman--likely contribute to sex differences in service utilization for depression. This study investigated whether sex differences in toughness, a gender-linked norm characterized by a desire to hide pain and maintain independence, were associated with a preference to wait for depression to resolve on its own without active professional treatment ("wait-and-see" approach).

METHODS

Participants (N=1,051) in the California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey were contacted in a follow-on survey to assess toughness, the kind of treatment they would prefer were they to receive a diagnosis of depression, and current symptoms of depression. Participants who reported ever having been diagnosed as having a depressive disorder on the BRFSS were oversampled threefold. Analyses were conducted using linear and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Men and women who scored higher on toughness had a greater preference for the wait-and-see approach (OR=1.14, p<.01). Women were less likely to prefer the wait-and-see approach (OR=.58, p<.04) and scored lower on toughness (B=-.70, p<.01). Men's greater levels of toughness partially mediated the sex difference in treatment preferences (OR=.91, p<.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Men's greater adherence to the toughness norm explained part of the sex difference observed in treatment-seeking preferences, but toughness undermined women's treatment seeking as well. Findings could be used to inform novel public health communications intended to attract both men and women to psychiatric services.

Role of the gender-linked norm of toughness in the decision to engage in treatment for depression

OBJECTIVE

Given their prevalence and persuasive power in our culture, gender norms--commonly described as socially reinforced, learned expectations of what it means to be a man or a woman--likely contribute to sex differences in service utilization for depression. This study investigated whether sex differences in toughness, a gender-linked norm characterized by a desire to hide pain and maintain independence, were associated with a preference to wait for depression to resolve on its own without active professional treatment ("wait-and-see" approach).

METHODS

Participants (N=1,051) in the California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey were contacted in a follow-on survey to assess toughness, the kind of treatment they would prefer were they to receive a diagnosis of depression, and current symptoms of depression. Participants who reported ever having been diagnosed as having a depressive disorder on the BRFSS were oversampled threefold. Analyses were conducted using linear and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Men and women who scored higher on toughness had a greater preference for the wait-and-see approach (OR=1.14, p<.01). Women were less likely to prefer the wait-and-see approach (OR=.58, p<.04) and scored lower on toughness (B=-.70, p<.01). Men's greater levels of toughness partially mediated the sex difference in treatment preferences (OR=.91, p<.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Men's greater adherence to the toughness norm explained part of the sex difference observed in treatment-seeking preferences, but toughness undermined women's treatment seeking as well. Findings could be used to inform novel public health communications intended to attract both men and women to psychiatric services.

Factors associated with emergency department use among the rural elderly

CONTEXT

Emergency Department (ED) use among the rural elderly may present a different pattern from the urban elderly, thus requiring different policy initiatives. However, ED use among the rural elderly has seldom been studied and is little understood.

PURPOSE

To characterize factors associated with having any versus no ED use among the rural elderly.

METHODS

A cross-sectional and observational study of 1,736 Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older who live in nonmetropolitan areas. The data are from the 2002 to 2005 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). A logistic regression model was estimated that included measures of predisposing characteristics, enabling factors, need variables, and health behavior as suggested by Anderson's behavioral model of health service utilization.

FINDINGS

During a 1-year period, 20.8% of the sample had at least 1 ED visit. Being widowed, more educated, enrolled in Medicaid, with fair/poor self-perceived physical health, respiratory diseases, and heart disease were associated with a higher likelihood of having any ED visits. However, residing in the western and southern United States and being enrolled in Medicaid managed care were associated with lower probability of having any ED visits. While Medicaid enrollees who reported excellent, very good, good, or fair physical health were more likely to have at least 1 ED visit than those not on Medicaid, Medicaid enrollees reporting poor physical health may be less likely to have any ED visits.

CONCLUSION

Policy makers and hospital administrators should consider these factors when managing the need for emergency care, including developing interventions to provide needed care through alternate means.

Managed care quality and disenrollment in New York SCHIP

BACKGROUND

During the past decade, experts have devoted substantial efforts to quality improvement for managed care. Although a handful of studies have examined the effect of quality on enrollment, few have systematically investigated the association between managed care quality and plan disenrollment, especially among lowincome populations.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether higher-quality measures in managed care plans are associated with lower disenrollment from the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) in New York State.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Observational study of managed care plan disenrollment for a New York statewide cohort of 2206 new SCHIP enrollees.

MEASUREMENTS

Managed care quality was measured by 7 Consumer Assessment of Health Plans Survey (CAHPS) scores and 3 Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) scores, obtained from the 2002 New York State Managed Care Plan Performance Report. Disenrollment was defined as being disenrolled from an SCHIP plan for 2 or more consecutive months based on the New York SCHIP universal billing files.

RESULTS

Nearly 40% of children were disenrolled during the study period. No overall effects of plan quality on disenrollment were detected, but plans with higher scores in "preventive care visits" had a significantly lower disenrollment rate. The disenrollment rate in the eligibility recertification period was 3.2 percentage points higher than that in other time periods.

CONCLUSION

Disenrollment was not associated with overall managed care plan quality as measured by CAHPS and HEDIS, suggesting that further study is warranted to determine optimal strategies for enhancing managed care quality in the SCHIP population.

Is there a downside to customizing care? Implications of general and patient-specific treatment strategies

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The use of general clinical guidelines versus customization of patient care presents a dilemma for clinicians managing chronic illness. The objective of this project is to investigate the claim that the performance of customized strategies for the management of chronic illness depends on accurate patient categorization, and inaccurate categorization can lead to worse performance than that achievable using a general clinical guideline.

METHODS

This paper is based on an analysis of a basic utility model that differentiates between the use of general management strategies and customized strategies.

RESULTS

The analysis identifies necessary conditions for preferring general strategies to customized strategies as a trade-off between strategy performance and the probability of correct patient categorization. The analysis shows that customized treatment strategies developed under optimal conditions are not necessarily preferred.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of the analysis have four implications regarding the design and use of clinical guidelines and customization of care: (i) the balance between the applications of more general strategies versus customization depends on the specificity and accuracy of the strategies; (ii) adoption of clinical guidelines may be stifled as the complexity of guidelines increases to account for growing evidence; (iii) clinical inertia (i.e. the failure to intensify an indicated treatment) can be a rational response to strategy specificity and the probability of misapplication; and, (iv) current clinical guidelines and other decision-support tools may be improved if they accommodate the need for customization of strategies for some patients while providing support for proper categorization of patients.

Managed care quality of care and plan choice in New York SCHIP

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether low-income parents of children enrolled in the New York State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) choose managed care plans with better quality of care.

DATA SOURCES

2001 New York SCHIP evaluation data; 2001 New York State Managed Care Plan Performance Report; 2000 New York State Managed Care Enrollment Report.

STUDY DESIGN

Each market was defined as a county. A final sample of 2,325 new enrollees was analyzed after excluding those in markets with only one SCHIP plan. Plan quality was measured using seven Consumer Assessment of Health Plans Survey (CAHPS) and three Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) scores. A conditional logit model was applied with plan and individual/family characteristics as covariates.

PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

There were 30 plans in the 45 defined markets. The choice probability increased 2.5 percentage points for each unit increase in the average CAHPS score, and the association was significantly larger in children with special health care needs. However, HEDIS did not show any statistically significant association with plan choice.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-income parents do choose managed care plans with higher CAHPS scores for their newly enrolled children, suggesting that overall quality could improve over time because of the dynamics of enrollment.

A connection between medication adherence, patient sense of uniqueness, and the personalization of information

Adherence to treatment regimens is important to achieve optimal disease management. However, nonadherence is evident across numerous clinical contexts, which leads to a higher disease burden on society. Among the various factors associated with patient adherence behavior, patient beliefs are the most influential set of factors. Several cognitive-social models and constructs that incorporate patient belief have been developed to explain patient health behaviors, such as the Health Belief Model, Self-Efficacy Model, Theory of Planned Behavior and so on. However, these models do not explain the formulation of health beliefs. The underlying mechanism accounting for patient variation in information processing that generates beliefs needs to be investigated, which will inform the development of interventions. We propose that patient's sense of uniqueness moderates the self-attribution of statistically-based information. Self-attribution is defined as a person's perceived probability that a statement applies to herself, and is influenced by experience and sense of uniqueness. Sense of uniqueness is a person's general belief regarding how unique she is. Statistically-based information is defined as information derived from or regarding aggregated effects or influences. Basically, the proposed hypothesis is that patients who have a stronger belief that they are unique are less likely to attribute to themselves statistically-based propositions regarding the majority of their group and are more likely to attribute to themselves statistically-based propositions regarding the minority. We further model the relationship between sense of uniqueness and self-attribution of information in terms of an idealized inexperienced person, and then extend the model to include the effect of personal experience. The estimation of hypothesis-specific effect parameters can be achieved by maximum likelihood. In conclusion, the sense of uniqueness hypothesis is general to the formulation of personal beliefs and consequently has implications for deliberate health behavior and indeed personal behavior in general.

Projection, stereotyping, and the perception of chronic medical conditions

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypotheses that people with chronic medical conditions are more likely than those without chronic medical conditions to project personal characteristics onto the population with chronic medical conditions, and that people without chronic medical conditions are more likely to stereotype those with chronic medical conditions.

METHODS

The study is a secondary analysis of the 2000 Chronic Illness and Caregiving survey conducted by Harris Interactive Inc. using linear and probit regressions.

RESULTS

The hypothesis that persons with chronic medical conditions project their characteristics onto the population of those with chronic medical conditions is strongly supported. The hypothesis that persons without chronic medical conditions stereotype the population of those with chronic medical conditions is weakly supported.

DISCUSSION

The findings imply that characterizations of persons with chronic medical conditions vary more among those with chronic medical conditions than among those without, and that those without chronic medical conditions have more homogeneous representations. This difference between those who have chronic medical conditions and those who do not implies a potential for greater variation in support for the particulars of policies addressing chronic medical conditions among those with chronic medical conditions.

Primary care physician office visits for depression by older Americans

BACKGROUND

Older patients mostly receive depression care from primary care physicians, but it is not known whether depression treatment is primarily received from family/general practice physicians or internal medicine physicians and whether the type of depression treatment offered varies between these types of primary care physicians.

OBJECTIVE

To assess what proportion of visits for depression are to family/general practice physicians or to internal medicine physicians and whether the type of depression treatment offered varies by primary care physician specialty.

DESIGN

Data from the 2000 and 2001 National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys, a nationally representative survey of visits to office-based practices using clustered sampling, were used.

PARTICIPANTS

Office-based physician practices in the United States.

RESULTS

There were an estimated 9.8 million visits made to office-based providers by older patients for depression in 2001 to 2002, of which 64% were to primary care physicians. Visits to primary care providers were evenly split between Internists and family/general practice physicians. There was no significant difference in the rate of antidepressant prescribing between visits to Internists versus family/general practice (55.9% vs 48.0%; P = .42). Mental health counseling or psychotherapy was offered more often during visits to family/general practice physicians than to Internists (39.4% vs 14.0%; P = .07).

CONCLUSIONS

Visits for depression by elderly patients continue to take place in primary care settings to both family/general practice physicians and Internists. Interventions aimed at improving depression care in primary care should focus on both types of primary care physicians and emphasize improving rates of diagnosis and referral for counseling or psychotherapy as a viable treatment option.

When to combine hypotheses and adjust for multiple tests

OBJECTIVE

To provide guidelines for identifying composite hypotheses and addressing the probability of false rejection for multiple hypotheses.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING

Examples from the literature in health services research are used to motivate the discussion of composite hypothesis tests and multiple hypotheses.

METHODS

This article is a didactic presentation.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

It is not rare to find mistaken inferences in health services research because of inattention to appropriate hypothesis generation and multiple hypotheses testing. Guidelines are presented to help researchers identify composite hypotheses and set significance levels to account for multiple tests.

CONCLUSIONS

It is important for the quality of scholarship that inferences are valid: properly identifying composite hypotheses and accounting for multiple tests provides some assurance in this regard.

An individual-based framework for the study of medical error

BACKGROUND

In the late 1990s, medical error came into focus as a problem to be explicitly acknowledged and addressed. Research on this topic is amassing in the epidemiology of medical error and the system and human factors that contribute to error. In addition, however, an understanding of medical errors in terms of the underlying decision process is needed.

OBJECTIVE

To present an individual-based framework for the study of medical errors in the context of the decision maker.

RESULTS

A framework is developed in terms of four state spaces: the decision environment, problem, goal, and action spaces. The role of information uncertainty is discussed. The framework is purposefully simple to provide flexibility and options for research-specific extensions, but sufficient structure is imposed to guide understanding and investigation.

CONCLUSION

Understanding medical error in terms of the proposed framework can guide research and subsequent interventions by illuminating where in the decision process such errors are generated.

Another Look at Observational Studies in Rehabilitation Research: Going Beyond the Holy Grail of the Randomized Controlled Trial

Horn SD, DeJong G, Ryser DK, Veazie PJ, Teraoka J. Another look at observational studies in rehabilitation research: going beyond the holy grail of the randomized controlled trial. This commentary compares randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and clinical practice improvement (CPI) approaches to study design, evaluates their relative advantages and disadvantages, and discusses their implications for rehabilitation research and evidence-based practice. Many argue that observational cohort studies are not sufficient as scientific evidence for practice change. We challenge this assertion by introducing the concept of a CPI study: a comprehensive observational paradigm structured to decrease biases generally associated with observational research. One strength of CPI studies is their attention to defining and characterizing the "black box" of clinical practice. CPI studies require demanding data collection, but by using bivariate and multivariate associations among patient characteristics, process steps, and outcomes, they can uncover best practices more quickly while achieving many of the presumed advantages of RCTs.

Making improvements in the management of patients with type 2 diabetes: a possible role for the control of variation in glycated hemoglobin

Glucose level varies over time due to a number of complex physiologic processes. Evidence suggests variation in glucose level contributes to risk of complications. The timescale associated with variation in glucose level is on the order of seconds to minutes, yet diabetes complications stem from years of cumulative effects. This difference between timescale suggests a slower timescale may better represent the influential component of variation. We hypothesize variation in glycated hemoglobin captures the component of variation associated with future complications. Moreover, we hypothesize that patient-management strategies influence variation in glycated hemoglobin level. From a systems control perspective, increasing variation may well reflect a policy of closed loop feedback control where changes in patient glycated hemoglobin are addressed after the fact. Such a strategy attends to problems as they arise. In contrast, decreasing variation may result from a clinical strategy that is anticipatory and proactive. A physician using a proactive strategy will base current moves on anticipation of future states, controlling variation in patient outcomes such as glycated hemoglobin. We motivate our discussion using observational data from a large multispecialty medical group in Minnesota: we characterize the within-patient trend and variation of glycated hemoglobin in adults with type 2 diabetes, describe patterns of variation, and identify factors associated with variation. Our hypotheses imply: (1) patterns of variation in glycated hemoglobin reflect physician treatment strategy; (2) variation provides an independent contribution to risk of diabetes complications; (3) the development of treatment strategies that control variation may be a beneficial goal in the management of type 2 diabetes.

Improving risk adjustment for Medicare capitated reimbursement using nonlinear models

OBJECTIVES

This article compares a linear risk-adjusted model of medical expenditures for Medicare patients with a model that explicitly account for skewness in distribution of expenditures.

METHODS

A model of expenditures and a model of the square root of expenditures, each expressed as linear combinations of risk adjusters, are estimated using data from the 1992 through 1994 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys. Five sets of risk adjusters are considered. Each combination of model and set of risk adjusters is tested for linearity, heteroscedasticity, in-sample fit (R2), forecast performance (forecast bias and forecast mean squared error), and overfitting the data. We analyze forecast performance (1)based on forecasts in same year used for estimation, and (2)based on forecasts in the year following that used for estimation.

RESULTS

In the first analysis, the model using a square root transformation of expenditures as the dependent variable and the more parsimonious specification of risk adjusters performs best in terms of forecast squared error and overfitting. The untransformed model performs best in terms of forecast bias in each group based on severity of disability, with the exception of the severely disabled for whom the square root model is best. In the second analysis, the square root model performs better than the untransformed model in terms of forecast squared error, but neither model is statistically distinguishable from zero in terms of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting for skewness in expenditures tends to improve precision but not necessarily bias, except among the severely disabled. Adjusting for health status improves risk adjustment.

Understanding variation in chronic disease outcomes

We propose an explanation for variation in disease outcomes based on patient adaptation to the conditions of chronic disease. We develop a model of patient adaptation using the example of Type 2 diabetes mellitus and assumptions about the process entailed in transforming self-care behaviors of compliance with treatment, compliance with glucose monitoring, and patient's knowledge seeking behavior into health outcomes of glycemic control and patient satisfaction. Using data from 609 adults with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes we develop an efficiency (fitness) frontier in order to identify best practice (maximally adapted) patients and forms (archetypes) of patient inefficiency. Outcomes of frontier patients are partitioned by categories of returns to scale. Outcomes for off-frontier patients are associated with disease severity and patient archetype. The model implicates strategies for improved health outcomes based on fitness and self-care behaviors.

The effects of capitation payment on the organizational structure of medical group practices

This study explores the effects of capitation payment on the structural elements used by medical group practices to control physician-directed use of resources and the quality of patient care. Forty-five medical groups located in the highly competitive Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area were studied. The range of capitation payment in these medical group practices is from 2% to 87%. Although the practices vary considerably in the extent to which they have developed these control mechanisms, it does not appear that capitation payment is a major factor influencing that pattern. It appears that many of these medical group practices either use less formal mechanisms than those included in this study to control resource use and the quality of care or use none at all. In either event, the data suggest that the effects of capitation payment on the structure of medical practices may be overestimated.