EXPRESS: A Randomized Controlled Trial to Optimize Patientâs Selection for Endovascular Treatment in Acute Ischemic Stroke (SELECT2): Study Protocol

RATIONALE

Randomized evidence for endovascular thrombectomy(EVT) safety and efficacy in patients with large core strokes is lacking.

AIMS

To demonstrate EVT efficacy and safety in patients with large core on non-contrast CT or perfusion imaging(CT/MR) and determine if there is heterogeneity of treatment effect in large cores based on the imaging modality.

DESIGN

SELECT2 is a prospective, randomized, multi-center, assessor-blinded controlled trial with adaptive enrichment design, enrolling up to 560 patients.

PROCEDURE

Patients who meet the clinical criteria and have anterior circulation large vessel occlusions with large core on either NCCT(ASPECTS 3-5) or perfusion imaging(CTP[rCBF<30%] and/or MRI[ADC <620]â¥50cc) will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to undergo EVT or medical management(MM) only up to 24 hours of last known well.

STUDY OUTCOMES

The distribution of 90-day mRS scores is the primary outcome. Functional independence(mRS=0-2) rate is a secondary outcome. Other secondary outcomes include safety(symptomatic ICH, neurological worsening, mortality) and imaging outcomes.

ANALYSIS

A normal approximation of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test(the generalized likelihood ratio test) to assess the primary outcome. Functional independence rates, safety and imaging outcomes will also be compared.

DISCUSSION

The SELECT2 trial will evaluate EVT safety and efficacy in large cores on either CT or perfusion imaging and may provide randomized evidence to extend EVT eligibility to larger population. Registration: ClinicalTrials.govâNCT03876457.

Understanding mechanisms of integrated behavioral therapy for co-occurring obesity and depression in primary care: a mediation analysis in the RAINBOW trial

The RAINBOW trial demonstrated that an integrated collaborative care intervention was effective for improving weight and depression. This study examined mediation of the treatment effect by a priori specified lifestyle behaviors and cognitive functioning. Participants were randomized to a 12-month integrated intervention (n = 204) or usual care (n = 205). Body mass index (BMI) and 20-item Depression Symptom Check List (SCL-20) were co-primary outcomes (Y). To examine mediation, we assessed (a) the effect of the integrated intervention (X) on lifestyle behaviors (diet and physical activity) and cognitive functioning (problem-solving; M, X→M path a) and (b) the association of these behaviors with BMI and SCL-20 (M→Y path b). Mediation existed if paths a and b were significant or if path a and the product of coefficients test (paths a and b) were significant. Compared with usual care, the intervention led to significant improvements in leisure time physical activity (201.3 MET minutes/week [SD, 1,457.6]) and total calorie intake (337.4 kcal/day [818.3]) at 6 months but not 12 months (path a). These improvements were not significantly associated with improvements in BMI or SCL-20 (path b). However, avoidant problem-solving style score and increased fruit and vegetable intake significantly correlated with improvements in BMI at 6 and 12 months, respectively. Also, increased fruit and vegetable intake, higher dietary quality, and better problem-solving abilities significantly correlated with improvements in SCL-20 at 6 and 12 months. These findings did not support the hypothesized mediation, but suggest lifestyle behaviors and cognitive functioning to target in future intervention optimization.

Data Sharing, Clinical Trials, and Biomarkers in Precision Oncology: Challenges, Opportunities, and Programs at the Department of Veterans Affairs

Cancer genomic research reveals that a similar cancer clinical phenotype (e.g., non-small cell lung cancer) can arise from various mutations in tumor DNA. Thus, organ of origin is not a definitive classification. Further, targeted therapy for cancer patients (precision oncology) capitalizes on knowledge of individual patient mutational status to deliver treatment directed against the protein products of these mutations with the goal of reducing toxicity and enhancing efficacy relative to traditional nontargeted chemotherapy.

DASH for asthma: a pilot study of the DASH diet in not-well-controlled adult asthma

This pilot study aims to provide effect size confidence intervals, clinical trial and intervention feasibility data, and procedural materials for a full-scale randomized controlled trial that will determine the efficacy of Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) as adjunct therapy to standard care for adults with uncontrolled asthma. The DASH diet encompasses foods (e.g., fresh fruit, vegetables, and nuts) and antioxidant nutrients (e.g., vitamins A, C, E, and zinc) with potential benefits for persons with asthma, but it is unknown whether the whole diet is beneficial. Participants (n = 90) will be randomized to receive usual care alone or combined with a DASH intervention consisting of 8 group and 3 individual sessions during the first 3 months, followed by at least monthly phone consultations for another 3 months. Follow-up assessments will occur at 3 and 6 months. The primary outcome measure is the 7-item Juniper Asthma Control Questionnaire, a validated composite measure of daytime and nocturnal symptoms, activity limitations, rescue medication use, and percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second. We will explore changes in inflammatory markers important to asthma pathophysiology (e.g., fractional exhaled nitric oxide) and their potential to mediate the intervention effect on disease control. We will also conduct pre-specified subgroup analyses by genotype (e.g., polymorphisms on the glutathione S transferase gene) and phenotype (e.g., atopy, obesity). By evaluating a dietary pattern approach to improving asthma control, this study could advance the evidence base for refining clinical guidelines and public health recommendations regarding the role of dietary modifications in asthma management.

Two-year weight-loss maintenance in primary care-based Diabetes Prevention Program lifestyle interventions

Objective:

To investigate whether the effects on weight loss and cardiometabolic risk factor reduction of two technology-mediated lifestyle interventions for 15 months in a primary care-based translation trial sustained at 24 months (that is, 9 months after the end of intervention).

Design:

This study analyzed data from an extended follow-up of participants in the original ‘E-LITE' (Evaluation of Lifestyle Interventions to Treat Elevated Cardiometabolic Risk in Primary Care)-randomized controlled trial, which demonstrated the effectiveness of two adapted Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle interventions compared with usual primary care.

Subjects:

E-LITE randomized 241 overweight or obese participants with pre-diabetes and/or metabolic syndrome to receive usual care alone (n=81) or usual care plus a coach-led (n=79) or self-directed intervention (n=81). The interventions provided coach-led group behavioral weight-loss treatment or a take-home, self-directed DVD using the same 12-week curriculum, followed by 12 additional months of technology-mediated coach contact and self-monitoring support. Participants received no further intervention after month 15. A blinded assessor conducted 24-month visits by following the measurement protocols of the original trial. Measurements include weight and cardiometabolic risk factors (waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose, resting blood pressure, triglycerides, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol and triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio).

Results:

At month 24, mean±s.e. changes in body mass index (trial primary outcome) and weight (kg) from baseline were –1.9±0.3 (P=0.001) and –5.4±0.9 (P<0.001) in the coach-led intervention, and –1.6±0.3 (P=0.03) and –4.5±0.9 (P=0.001) in the self-directed intervention, compared with –0.9±0.3 and 2.4±0.9 in the usual care group. In addition, both interventions led to a greater percentage of participants maintaining ⩾7% weight loss and sustained improvements in waist circumference and fasting plasma glucose levels than usual care.

Conclusion:

This study shows sustained benefits of the two primary care-based, technology-mediated DPP lifestyle interventions. The findings warrant replication in long-term studies involving diverse populations.

Comparison of dynamic block randomization and minimization in randomized trials: a simulation study

BACKGROUND

Minimizing the imbalance of key baseline covariates between treatments is known to be very important to the precision of the estimate of treatment effect in clinical research. Dynamic randomization allocation techniques have been used to achieve balance across multiple baseline characteristics. However, empirical data are limited on how these techniques compare in terms of balance and efficiency. We are motivated by a newly funded randomized controlled trial, in which we have the option of choosing between two methods of randomization at the subject level: (1) randomizing individual subjects consecutively as they are enrolled, using Pocock and Simon's minimization method, and (2) simultaneously randomizing blocks of subjects once all subjects in a block have been enrolled, using a balance algorithm originally developed for cluster randomized trials.

PURPOSE

To compare dynamic block randomization and minimization in terms of balance on baseline covariates and statistical efficiency. Simple randomization was included as a reference.

METHODS

A simulation study using data from a previous randomized controlled trial was conducted to compare balance statistics and the accuracy and power of hypothesis testing among the randomization methods.

RESULTS

Dynamic block randomization consistently produced the best balance and highest power for various sample and treatment effect sizes, even after post-adjustment of the pre-specified baseline covariates in all three methods. Consistent with previous reports, minimization performed better in balance and power than simple randomization; however, the differences were noticeably smaller compared to those between dynamic block randomization and simple randomization.

LIMITATIONS

In this simulation study, we considered three sample sizes and two block sizes for a two-arm randomized trial. We assumed no interactions among the multiple baseline covariates. It is necessary to evaluate how the results may vary when the simulation conditions are changed before drawing broader conclusions regarding comparisons between the randomization methods.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that dynamic block randomization outperforms minimization with regard to achieving balance and maximizing efficiency. Nevertheless, the differences across the three randomization strategies are modest. The statistical advantages associated with dynamic block randomization need to be considered in relation to the planned sample size and the practical issues for its implementation in deciding the preferred method of randomization for a given trial (e.g., the time required to accrue blocks of subjects of adequate size as balanced against the need to commence intervention/treatment immediately in those randomized to that experimental condition).

The Breathe Easier through Weight Loss Lifestyle (BE WELL) Intervention: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Obesity and asthma have reached epidemic proportions in the US. Their concurrent rise over the last 30 years suggests that they may be connected. Numerous observational studies support a temporally-correct, dose-response relationship between body mass index (BMI) and incident asthma. Weight loss, either induced by surgery or caloric restriction, has been reported to improve asthma symptoms and lung function. Due to methodological shortcomings of previous studies, however, well-controlled trials are needed to investigate the efficacy of weight loss strategies to improve asthma control in obese individuals.

METHODS/DESIGN

BE WELL is a 2-arm parallel randomized clinical trial (RCT) of the efficacy of an evidence-based, comprehensive, behavioral weight loss intervention, focusing on diet, physical activity, and behavioral therapy, as adjunct therapy to usual care in the management of asthma in obese adults. Trial participants (n = 324) are patients aged 18 to 70 years who have suboptimally controlled, persistent asthma, BMI between 30.0 and 44.9 kg/m2, and who do not have serious comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, stroke). The 12-month weight loss intervention to be studied is based on the principles of the highly successful Diabetes Prevention Program lifestyle intervention. Intervention participants will attend 13 weekly group sessions over a four-month period, followed by two monthly individual sessions, and will then receive individualized counseling primarily by phone, at least bi-monthly, for the remainder of the intervention. Follow-up assessment will occur at six and 12 months. The primary outcome variable is the overall score on the Juniper Asthma Control Questionnaire measured at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include lung function, asthma-specific and general quality of life, asthma medication use, asthma-related and total health care utilization. Potential mediators (e.g., weight loss and change in physical activity level and nutrient intake) and moderators (e.g., socio-demographic characteristics and comorbidities) of the intervention effects also will be examined.

DISCUSSION

This RCT holds considerable potential for illuminating the nature of the obesity-asthma relationship and advancing current guidelines for treating obese adults with asthma, which may lead to reduced morbidity and mortality related to the comorbidity of the two disorders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00901095.

An α 2C -Adrenergic Receptor Polymorphism Alters the Norepinephrine-Lowering Effects and Therapeutic Response of the β-Blocker Bucindolol in Chronic Heart Failure

Background— Adrenergic activation is an important determinant of outcomes in chronic heart failure. Adrenergic activity is regulated in part by prejunctional α 2C -adrenergic receptors (ARs), which exhibit genetic variation in humans. Bucindolol is a novel β-AR blocking agent that also lowers systemic norepinephrine and thus is also a sympatholytic agent. This study investigated whether α 2C -AR polymorphisms affect sympatholytic effects of bucindolol in patients with heart failure.

Methods and Results— In the β-Blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial, adrenergic activation was estimated by systemic venous norepinephrine measured at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months posttreatment in patients treated with placebo or bucindolol. In the β-Blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial AR polymorphism substudy, DNA was collected from 1040 of the 2708 randomized patients, and α 2C -AR gene polymorphisms (α 2C Del322-325 or the wild-type counterpart) were measured by polymerase chain reaction and gel electrophoresis. Patients who were α 2C Del carriers (heterozygotes or homozygotes) exhibited a much greater sympatholytic response to bucindolol (decrease in norepinephrine at 3 months of 153±57 pg/mL, P =0.012 compared with placebo versus decrease of 50±13 pg/mL in α 2C wild type, P =0.0005 versus placebo; P =0.010 by interaction test). α 2C Del carriers had no evidence of a favorable survival benefit from bucindolol (mortality compared with placebo hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.57 to 2.08; P =0.80), whereas bucindolol-treated subjects who were wild type for the α 2C -AR had a 30% reduction in mortality (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.96; P =0.025).

Conclusions— In the β-Blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial AR polymorphism substudy, the norepinephrine lowering and clinical therapeutic responses to bucindolol were strongly influenced by α 2C receptor genotype.

A meta-analysis of patients receiving allogeneic or autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant in mycosis fungoides and Sézary syndrome

The survival outlook in advanced mycosis fungoides (MF) is poor. Autologous and allogeneic stem cell transplants (SCT) have been shown, in small case series and case reports, to have the potential for long-term remission or to alter disease course. Allogeneic SCT is thought to have a curative potential secondary to a graft-versus-lymphoma (GVL) effect. A patient-level meta-analysis was performed to compare the outcome of allogeneic versus autologous SCT in patients with MF/Sézary syndrome (SS) using 39 cases from the literature. There were a total of 20 allogeneic and 19 autologous transplant cases. The gender, age, and stage distribution was similar between the transplant groups. The allogeneic group received significantly more systemic therapies prior to transplant (P < .0005) and had longer follow-up after transplant. Overall survival (OS) results showed a more favorable outcome of patients who received allogeneic SCT (P = .027). Event-free survival (EFS) demonstrated a more durable response in patients who received allogeneic SCT (P = .002). In the allogeneic group, the majority (70%) of patients experienced persistent graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), mostly with mild to moderate severity, and 2 of 4 deaths were related to GVHD. Meanwhile, the majority of the deaths (8 of 10) in the autologous group were because of progressive disease. These results support the belief that allogeneic SCT offers a better survival and disease-free outcome versus autologous SCT in MF/SS, likely because of a GVL effect.

Expression and prognostic significance of a panel of tissue hypoxia markers in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinomas

PURPOSE

To investigate the expression pattern of hypoxia-induced proteins identified as being involved in malignant progression of head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and to determine their relationship to tumor pO(2) and prognosis.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We performed immunohistochemical staining of hypoxia-induced proteins (carbonic anhydrase IX [CA IX], BNIP3L, connective tissue growth factor, osteopontin, ephrin A1, hypoxia inducible gene-2, dihydrofolate reductase, galectin-1, IkappaB kinase beta, and lysyl oxidase) on tumor tissue arrays of 101 HNSCC patients with pretreatment pO(2) measurements. Analysis of variance and Fisher's exact tests were used to evaluate the relationship between marker expression, tumor pO(2), and CA IX staining. Cox proportional hazard model and log-rank tests were used to determine the relationship between markers and prognosis.

RESULTS

Osteopontin expression correlated with tumor pO(2) (Eppendorf measurements) (p = 0.04). However, there was a strong correlation between lysyl oxidase, ephrin A1, and galectin-1 and CA IX staining. These markers also predicted for cancer-specific survival and overall survival on univariate analysis. A hypoxia score of 0-5 was assigned to each patient, on the basis of the presence of strong staining for these markers, whereby a higher score signifies increased marker expression. On multivariate analysis, increasing hypoxia score was an independent prognostic factor for cancer-specific survival (p = 0.015) and was borderline significant for overall survival (p = 0.057) when adjusted for other independent predictors of outcomes (hemoglobin and age).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a panel of hypoxia-related tissue markers that correlates with treatment outcomes in HNSCC. Validation of these markers will be needed to determine their utility in identifying patients for hypoxia-targeted therapy.

Eating attitudes in high school students in the Philippines: a preliminary study

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence of abnormal eating attitudes among high school students from Pasig Catholic College in the Philippines.

METHODS

Two survey questionnaires, the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT) and Beck's Depression Inventory (BDI), were administered to 932 high school students. The height and weight of the subjects were measured, and their body mass indices (BMI) calculated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of abnormal eating attitudes according to the EAT scores was 14.5 +/- 3.2% among males and 15.0 +/- 3.5% among females, comparable to the 7-22% found in Western countries. There was a weak correlation between the EAT scores and BMI (r=0.180, p=0.01), and between the EAT scores and Beck's Depression Inventory (r=0.187, p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate the presence of abnormal eating attitudes among Filipino high school students from Pasig Catholic College, which suggests that further study of eating disorders and their associated risks is warranted.

Strengthening clinical effectiveness trials: equipoise-stratified randomization

As psychiatric practice patterns evolve to take advantage of the growing list of treatments with proven efficacy, research studies with broader aims will become increasingly important. Randomized trials may need to accommodate multiple treatment options. In completely randomized designs, patients are assigned at random to one of the options, requiring that patients and clinicians find each of the options acceptable. In "clinician's choice" designs, patients are randomized to a small number of broad strategies and the choice of specific option within the broad strategy is left up to the clinician. The clinician's choice design permits some scope to patient and clinician preferences, but sacrifices the ability to make randomization-based comparisons of specific options. We describe a new approach, which we call the "equipoise stratified" design, that merges the advantages and avoids the disadvantages of the other two designs for clinical trials. The three designs are contrasted, using the National Institute of Mental Health Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression trial as an example.

Use of a simple symptom questionnaire to predict Barrett's esophagus in patients with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux

OBJECTIVE

Accurately predicting Barrett's esophagus (BE) in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is difficult. Using logistic regression analysis of symptom questionnaire scores we created a model to predict the presence of BE.

METHODS

We conducted a logistic regression analysis of symptom data collected prospectively on 517 GERD patients and created a prediction model based on patient gender, age, ethnicity, and symptom severity.

RESULTS

There were 337 (65%) males and 180 (35%) females, of whom 99 (19%) had Barrett's esophagus (BE). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the predictive ability of gender, age, and ethnicity along with symptoms of heartburn, nocturnal pain, odynophagia, presence of belching, dysphagia, relief of symptoms with food, and nausea. The only significant predictors (at the 0.05 level) were male gender, heartburn, nocturnal pain, and odynophagia (all with positive effects on the presence of BE) and dysphagia (which had a negative effect). A nomogram was produced to show the effect of a given predictor on the probability of having BE in the context of the effects of the other predictors, and to estimate the probability of having BE for a given individual. The mean score (+/-SD) for the BE patients in our sample was 397.4+/-46.2 with a range of 292-530. For the patients without BE, the mean score (+/-SD) was 351.3+/-60.3 with a range of 190 - 528 (p < 0.001). If screening for BE is performed at a score of 375 or more, our model would have a specificity of 63% with a sensitivity of 77% (95% CI 61-86% given the 63% specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

By asking seven questions about symptom severity, clinicians may be able to assign a probability to the presence of BE, and thus, determine the need for endoscopy in GERD patients.

Design of Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study no. 420: group treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a significant problem for a large number of veterans who receive treatment from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health-care system. VA Cooperative Study 420 is a randomized clinical trial of group psychotherapy for treating PTSD among veterans who sought VA care. Participants at ten sites were randomly assigned to receive one of the two treatments: active treatment that embedded exposure therapy in a group context or comparison treatment that avoided trauma focus and instead addressed current interpersonal problems. Treatment was delivered weekly to groups of six participants for 30 weeks, followed by five monthly booster sessions. Follow-up assessments were conducted at the end of treatment (7 months) and the end of boosters (12 months) for all participants. Long-term follow-up data were collected for a subset of participants at 18 and 24 months. The primary outcome is PTSD severity; other symptoms, functional status, quality of life, physical health, and service utilization also were assessed. Data analysis will account for the clustering introduced by the group nature of the intervention. The pivotal comparison was at the end of treatment. Analyses of subsequent outcomes will concentrate on the question of the durability of effects. The study provides an example of how to address the unique challenges posed by multisite trials of group psychotherapy through attention to methodological and statistical issues. This article discusses these challenges and describes the design and methods of the study. Control Clin Trials 2001;22:74-88

Non-Q-wave myocardial infarction following thrombolytic therapy: a comparison of outcomes in patients randomized to invasive or conservative post-infarct assessment strategies in the Veterans Affairs non-Q-wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) Trial

OBJECTIVES

We wished to determine the effect of post-infarct management strategy on event rates (death or recurrent nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI]) in patients who evolved non-Q-wave MI (NQMI) following thrombolytic therapy.

BACKGROUND

Patients who evolve NQMI following thrombolytic therapy are often considered to be at high risk and are frequently managed with routine early invasive testing despite a lack of data supporting improved outcome.

METHODS

The Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) study included 115 patients who evolved NQMI following thrombolytic therapy. We compared the event rates in patients randomized to routine early coronary angiography with those in patients randomized to a conservative strategy of noninvasive functional assessment, with angiography reserved for patients with spontaneous or induced ischemia.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 23 months, 19 of 58 patients (33%) randomized to the invasive management strategy died or suffered recurrent nonfatal MI, compared with 11 of 57 patients (19%) randomized to the conservative strategy (p = 0.152). Equivalent numbers of patients were subjected to revascularization (percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or coronary artery bypass graft). There were more deaths in the invasive management group than in the conservative management group (11 vs. 2). Excess deaths could not be attributed to periprocedural mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall event rates (death or recurrent nonfatal MI) are comparable with conservative and invasive strategies in patients who evolve NQMI following thrombolytic therapy. Mortality rate in patients managed conservatively is low (3.5%), and routine invasive management may be associated with an increased risk of death.

Sample-size calculations for the Cox proportional hazards regression model with nonbinary covariates

This paper derives a formula to calculate the number of deaths required for a proportional hazards regression model with a nonbinary covariate. The method does not require assumptions about the distributions of survival time and predictor variables other than proportional hazards. Simulations show that the censored observations do not contribute to the power of the test in the proportional hazards model, a fact that is well known for a binary covariate. This paper also provides a variance inflation factor together with simulations for adjustment of sample size when additional covariates are included in the model. Control Clin Trials 2000;21:552-560

Early invasive versus ischaemia-guided strategies in the management of non-Q wave myocardial infarction patients with and without prior myocardial infarction; results of Veterans Affairs Non-Q Wave Infarction Strategies in Hospital (VANQWISH) trial

AIMS

To compare the role of early invasive vs conservative management strategies in treating patients with non-Q wave myocardial infarction with or without a prior myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND

In patients recovering from non-Q wave myocardial infarction, the prognosis among patients with a first non-Q wave myocardial infarction is significantly better than in patients with a prior myocardial infarction, yet physicians often adopt an early invasive strategy to treat patients with a first non-Q wave myocardial infarction.

METHODS

Non-Q wave myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the VANQWISH trial with a history of prior myocardial infarction were compared to those with a first non-Q wave myocardial infarction, for the trial primary end-point of death or myocardial infarction at 1 and 12 months, as well as for the initial randomized treatment strategy.

RESULTS

Of the 920 non-Q wave myocardial infarction patients, 396 had a history of prior myocardial infarction and 524 did not. Patients with a history of prior myocardial infarction were older and had a higher incidence of multiple high-risk baseline characteristics than those with a first non-Q wave myocardial infarction. Compared to the group with a first myocardial infarction, the prior myocardial infarction group suffered more events at both 1 month (11% vs 6%, P=0.007) and at 12 months (29% vs 16%, P<0.001). This difference in outcome remained significant even after adjusting for confounding variables (P<0.0001 at 12 months). Among the non-Q wave myocardial infarction patients with a prior myocardial infarction, the frequency of death or recurrent myocardial infarction was similar in both invasive and conservative groups during the first year of follow-up. Among the first non-Q wave myocardial infarction group, those assigned to the conservative strategy had significantly fewer events (3% vs 9%, P=0.009 at 1 month; 12% vs 20%, P=0.016 at 12 months) and mortality (1% vs 5%, P=0.012 at one month; 5% vs 11%, P=0.009 at 12 months) than those assigned to early invasive strategy.

CONCLUSION

A history of prior myocardial infarction identifies a moderately high-risk subset of non-Q wave myocardial infarction patients who display similar long-term outcomes regardless of the strategy assignment; however, patients with a first non-Q wave myocardial infarction may fare better with a conservative or ischaemia-guided approach during the first post infarction year.

Electronic trial banks: a complementary method for reporting randomized trials

BACKGROUND

Randomized clinical trial (RCT) results are often difficult to find, interpret, or apply to clinical care. The authors propose that RCTs be reported into electronic knowledge bases-trial banks-in addition to being reported in text. What information should these trial-bank reports contain?

METHODS

Using the competency decomposition method, the authors specified the ideal trial-bank contents as the information necessary and sufficient for completing the task of systematic reviewing.

RESULTS

They decomposed the systematic reviewing task into four top-level tasks and 62 subtasks. 162 types of trial information were necessary and sufficient for completing these subtasks. These items relate to a trial's design, execution, administration, and results.

CONCLUSION

Trial-bank publishing of these 162 items would capture into computer-understandable form all the trial information needed for critically appraising and synthesizing trial results. Decision-support systems that access shared, up-to-date trial banks could help clinicians manage, synthesize, and apply RCT evidence more effectively.

Flexible treatment strategies in chronic disease: clinical and research implications

Multiple treatments are available for nearly all the mood disorders. This range of treatment options adds a new dimension of choice to clinical decision making. In addition to prescribing the best initial treatment, clinicians should have an algorithm for deciding if and when to make subsequent changes in treatment to take advantage of second-line treatment options when necessary. This article aims to 1) show that a wide variety of clinical decisions can be framed as choices among adaptive (within-patient) threshold-based strategies or algorithms, illustrating the generality of the concept; 2) illustrate two ways to design randomized clinical trials to compare treatment strategies with each other to decide which strategy is best; and 3) discuss some of the advantages offered by these designs, in terms of both patient acceptability and adherence to experimental protocols.

Panic disorder versus panic disorder with major depression; defining and understanding differences in psychiatric morbidity

The present study examined the impact of comorbid major depressive disorder (MDD) on psychiatric morbidity, panic symptomatology and frequency of other comorbid psychiatric conditions in subjects with panic disorder (PD). Four hundred thirty-seven patients with PD were evaluated at intake as part of a multicenter longitudinal study of anxiety disorders; 113 of these patients were also in an episode of MDD. Patients were diagnosed by DSM-III-R criteria utilizing structured clinical interviews. The 113 PD/MDD patients were compared with the 324 remaining PD subjects regarding panic symptoms at intake, sociodemographic, quality of life and psychiatric morbidity variables. Differences in frequency of other comorbid Axis I psychiatric disorders were assessed at intake; personality disorders were evaluated twelve months after intake. The results revealed the PD/MDD patients exhibit increased morbidity and decreased psychosocial functioning as compared to PD patients. Personality disorders were more prevalent in the PD/MDD group at six month follow-up assessment; the PD/MDD group also had an increased frequency of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and more comorbid Axis I anxiety disorders as compared to the PD group. The total number and frequency of panic symptoms was highly consistent between the two patient groups.

Placebo control groups in randomized treatment trials: a statistician's perspective

Because a statistical tie between standard treatment and an innovation is uninterpretable, most trials intended to demonstrate efficacy of innovations in psychopharmacology employ a placebo control group, despite the existence of standard medications for many disorders. In this review I consider the statistical issues that inform the ethics of the decision to use a placebo condition and make the following points: 1) the investigator is relying on the assumption that the effects of delayed standard treatment are neither long-lasting nor harmful; 2) the usual practice of truncating follow-up when a patient ceases to adhere to a study treatment makes it difficult to empirically test that assumption; 3) placebo control trials often suffer from methodological weaknesses (including nonrandom truncation) that reduce their inferential power; 4) these subtleties place a substantial burden on the informed consent process; 5) alternative designs are available but not well explored, due to the dominant role of "regulatory" trial methodology; and 6) researchers should consider other goals besides helping to introduce another treatment that improves on placebos but not the standard treatment.

Multiple recurrences of major depressive disorder

OBJECTIVE

The authors of this study examined multiple recurrences of unipolar major depressive disorder.

METHOD

A total of 318 subjects with unipolar major depressive disorder were prospectively followed for 10 years within a multicenter naturalistic study. Survival analytic techniques were used to examine the probability of recurrence after recovery from the index episode.

RESULTS

The mean number of episodes of major depression per year of follow-up was 0. 21, and nearly two-thirds of the subjects suffered at least one recurrence. The number of lifetime episodes of major depression was significantly associated with the probability of recurrence, such that the risk of recurrence increased by 16% with each successive recurrence. The risk of recurrence progressively decreased as the duration of recovery increased. Within subjects, there was very little consistency in the time to recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Major depressive disorder is a highly recurrent illness. The risk of the recurrence of major depressive disorder progressively increases with each successive episode and decreases as the duration of recovery increases.

The iron (Fe) and atherosclerosis study (FeAST): a pilot study of reduction of body iron stores in atherosclerotic peripheral vascular disease

BACKGROUND

Levels of body iron stores, represented by the serum ferritin concentration, rise with age after adolescence in men and menopause in women. This rise has been implicated mechanistically and epidemiologically in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis through iron-induced oxygen free radical-mediated lipid oxidation. However, the precise contribution of iron stores to atherosclerosis and its complications are unknown because prospective randomized trials designed to test effects of reduction of iron stores on clinical outcomes in this disease have not been performed.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In preparation for a prospective randomized trial, a randomized pilot study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility, safety, and methodologic accuracy of calibrated reduction in iron stores by phlebotomy in a cohort of patients with advanced peripheral vascular disease. Phlebotomy resulted in a significant reduction in serum ferritin concentration to near targeted levels. Thus the formula for calculating the volume of blood to be removed to achieve a predetermined decrement in serum ferritin concentration was accurate and phlebotomy was not associated with any adverse laboratory or clinical effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduction of body iron stores to a predetermined level is feasible and can be achieved in a timely manner with excellent patient compliance. Prospective randomized trials of calibrated reduction of body iron stores may be undertaken to define their pathophysiologic significance in atherosclerosis and other diseases in which excessive iron-induced oxidative stress has been implicated.

Comparison based on age of baseline electrocardiographic abnormalities in non-Q-wave myocardial infarction. VANQWISH Trial Research Investigators. Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital

OBJECTIVE

To compare the incidence of electrocardiographic abnormalities between older (age > or = 70 years) and younger patients presenting with acute non-Q-wave myocardial infarction.

DESIGN

Retrospective review of qualifying electrocardiograms in 918 patients enrolled in the multicenter Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) study.

SETTING

Seventeen Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 918 patients (224 > or = 70 years old) with acute non-Q-wave myocardial infarction.

MEASUREMENTS

Comparison of electrocardiograms in patients aged > or = 70 years and younger patients for presence of left ventriculary hypertrophy, widened QRS complex, ST and T wave abnormalities, rhythm other than sinus, heart rate > or = 80 beats/minute, and location of acute non-Q-wave myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Left ventricular hypertrophy and ST depression > or = 1 mm were significantly more frequent in older than in younger patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients presenting with non-Q-wave myocardial infarction have a greater incidence of left ventricular hypertrophy and ST depression on their electrocardiograms than younger patients. Both of these electrocardiographic findings have previously been associated with increased risk of death and recurrent myocardial infarction and may help account for the worse prognosis of non-Q-wave myocardial infarction in older patients.

Plans, designs, and analyses for clinical trials of anti-cocaine medications: where we are today. NIDA/VA/SU Working Group on Design and Analysis

Increased interest in addiction psychopharmacology has raised unique methodologic issues in the design, conduct, and analysis of outcomes in clinical trials of therapeutic agents for drug dependence. This article summarizes issues raised at a meeting in Palo Alto, California, on November 4, 1996, that was sponsored by the Medication Development Division of the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program to discuss the methodologic issues in clinical trials of cocaine pharmacotherapy.

Course of treatment received by depressed patients

Using data from an observational study of affective disorders, we describe the rates of transition among levels of antidepressant treatment for subjects with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), and relate these changes to changes in clinical status. We report on the treatment received during the first 10 years of follow-up in the Collaborative Depression Study by 555 patients with a diagnosis of MDD of at least one month's duration. This work extends the initial examination of treatment received during the first eight weeks after entry into this study that showed depressed patients to be on low levels of treatment. Multiplicative intensity models which generalize survival analysis models were used to analyse these data. Description of the course of treatment of these depressed patients shows that low levels of treatment persist for these patients across subsequent episodes, and that these episodes, like the index one, are characterized by extended time in a symptomatic subcriterion state after acute symptoms have improved. These long-term descriptions of treatment support the initial hypothesis that these CDS patients were undertreated. The long-term tendency toward undertreatment seems to persist even as newer treatments become available and widely accepted in practice.

Improving informed consent in clinical trials: a duty to experiment

Practitioners of clinical trials have a responsibility to ensure that patients' participation in research be informed and voluntary. This responsibility implies that we should strive continuously to improve the effectiveness of methods for informing prospective research volunteers about experimental studies, thereby enhancing the protection of their interests. We should test innovations in informed consent in realistic contexts (i.e., in clinical trials) and with randomization, when it is appropriate, at the first opportunity. In this study, we develop a preliminary proposal to improve the quality of informed consent, based on experimentation with informed consent in ongoing clinical trials. We discuss the conceptual, ethical, organizational, and technical bases for such an effort.

Utility of psychophysiological measurement in the diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder: results from a Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study

This multisite study tested the ability of psychophysiological responding to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis (current, lifetime, or never) in a large sample of male Vietnam veterans. Predictor variables for a logistic regression equation were drawn from a challenge task involving scenes of combat. The equation was tested and cross-validated demonstrating correct classification of approximately 2/3 of the current and never PTSD participants. Results replicate the finding of heightened psychophysiological responding to trauma-related cues by individuals with current PTSD, as well as differences in a variety of other domains between groups with and without the disorder. Follow-up analyses indicate that veterans with current PTSD who do not react physiologically to the challenge task manifest less reexperiencing symptoms, depression, and guilt. Discussion addresses the value of psychophysiological measures for assessment of PTSD.

Utility of psychophysiological measurement in the diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder: results from a Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study

This multisite study tested the ability of psychophysiological responding to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis (current, lifetime, or never) in a large sample of male Vietnam veterans. Predictor variables for a logistic regression equation were drawn from a challenge task involving scenes of combat. The equation was tested and cross-validated demonstrating correct classification of approximately 2/3 of the current and never PTSD participants. Results replicate the finding of heightened psychophysiological responding to trauma-related cues by individuals with current PTSD, as well as differences in a variety of other domains between groups with and without the disorder. Follow-up analyses indicate that veterans with current PTSD who do not react physiologically to the challenge task manifest less reexperiencing symptoms, depression, and guilt. Discussion addresses the value of psychophysiological measures for assessment of PTSD.

Outcomes in patients with acute non-Q-wave myocardial infarction randomly assigned to an invasive as compared with a conservative management strategy. Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies in Hospital (VANQWISH) Trial Investigators

BACKGROUND

Non-Q-wave myocardial infarction is usually managed according to an "invasive" strategy (i.e., one of routine coronary angiography followed by myocardial revascularization).

METHODS

We randomly assigned 920 patients to either "invasive" management (462 patients) or "conservative" management, defined as medical therapy and noninvasive testing, with subsequent invasive management if indicated by the development of spontaneous or inducible ischemia (458 patients), within 72 hours of the onset of a non-Q-wave infarction. Death or nonfatal infarction made up the combined primary end point.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 23 months, 152 events (80 deaths and 72 nonfatal infarctions) occurred in 138 patients who had been randomly assigned to the invasive strategy, and 139 events (59 deaths and 80 nonfatal infarctions) in 123 patients assigned to the conservative strategy (P=0.35). Patients assigned to the invasive strategy had worse clinical outcomes during the first year of follow-up. The number of patients with one of the components of the primary end point (death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) and the number who died were significantly higher in the invasive-strategy group at hospital discharge (36 vs. 15 patients, P=0.004, for the primary end point; 21 vs. 6, P=0.007, for death), at one month (48 vs. 26, P=0.012; 23 vs. 9, P=0.021), and at one year (111 vs. 85, P=0.05; 58 vs. 36, P= 0.025). Overall mortality during follow-up did not differ significantly between patients assigned to the conservative-strategy group and those assigned to the invasive-strategy group (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51 to 1.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients with non-Q-wave myocardial infarction do not benefit from routine, early invasive management consisting of coronary angiography and revascularization. A conservative, ischemia-guided initial approach is both safe and effective.

Developing and comparing treatment strategies: an annotated portfolio of designs

Useful clinical strategies are adaptive, specifying the sequence of treatments that are alternatives, what it means for the treatment to "work," the rules for abandoning a treatment, and the subsequent treatments. Because combinatorial complexity precludes comparison of every possible whole strategy, current experiment-based methods rely on comparisons among a few options at particularly crucial decision points, and strategies are pieced together from scraps of information. Nonexperimental methods for strategy development offer a seductive alternative, but their advantages may be illusory. Clinical investigators deploy a wide range of study designs to compare treatment strategies in mental health. This article organizes the types of designs by their purpose and annotates this list with comments on the strengths and weaknesses of each type. We conclude with some general comments on the overall process of development of treatment strategies.

Maintenance strategies for unipolar depression: an observational study of levels of treatment and recurrence

BACKGROUND

This paper analyses data from a large observational study of the course of affective illness to provide insight into the duration and dose of effective maintenance therapies.

METHODS

The data are 236 unipolar patients who had received antidepressants during recovery and were followed for affective recurrence for up to 5 years. Using data on the naturally selected somatic treatments, we have conducted analyses that adjust for the potential confounding effects of prognosis and treatment intensity to estimate the causal effect of level of medication on the course of recurrence.

RESULTS

The results of these analyses show that it is important for patients to remain on the level of somatotherapy used to treat the acute episode for the initial 8 months after symptoms have abated. After that time, the rate of recurrence for patients with fewer than five previous episodes is approximately 1% per week or less at all levels of medication (including discontinuation). Patients who had experienced more than several recurrences are at greater risk of recurrence and continue to benefit from any level of medication during the first year after recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

The CDS analyses reported here suggest that effective maintenance strategies for all but highly recurrent patients may be a middle road, opting for full-dose strategies of limited duration. These results have implications at both the policy and the clinical level, given the need to consider both monetary and nonmonetary costs (side-effects) associated with continued pharmacotherapy during remission.

LIMITATIONS

The observational design of the CDS limits the degree to which cause and effect relationships can be inferred from the observed associations.

Design and baseline characteristics of the Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) trial. VANQWISH Trial Research Investigators

OBJECTIVES

The Veterans Affairs Non-Q-Wave Infarction Strategies In-Hospital (VANQWISH) trial was designed to compare outcomes of patients with a non-Q wave myocardial infarction (NQMI) who were randomized prospectively to an early "invasive" strategy versus an early "conservative" strategy. The primary objective was to compare early and late outcomes between the two strategies using a combined trial end point (all-cause mortality or nonfatal infarction) during at least 1 year of follow-up.

BACKGROUND

Because of the widely held view that survivors of NQMI are at high risk for subsequent cardiac events, management of these patients has become more aggressive during the last decade. There is a paucity of data from controlled trials to support such an approach, however.

METHODS

Appropriate patients with a new NQMI were randomized to an early "invasive" strategy (routine coronary angiography followed by myocardial revascularization, if feasible) versus an early "conservative" strategy (noninvasive, predischarge stress testing with planar thallium scintigraphy and radionuclide ventriculography), where the use of coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization was guided by the development of ischemia (clinical course or results of noninvasive tests, or both).

RESULTS

A total of 920 patients were randomized (mean follow-up 23 months, range 12 to 44). The mean patient age was 61 +/- 10 years; 97% were male; 38% had ST segment depression at study entry; 30% had an anterior NQMI; 54% were hypertensive; 26% had diabetes requiring insulin; 43% were current smokers; 43% had a previous acute myocardial infarction; and 45% had antecedent angina within 3 weeks of the index NQMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline characteristics were compatible with a moderate to high risk group of patients with an NQMI.

Quantitative overview of randomized trials of amiodarone to prevent sudden cardiac death

BACKGROUND

Some randomized clinical trials of amiodarone therapy to prevent sudden cardiac death have had positive results and others have had negative results, but all were relatively small. This meta-analysis aimed to pool all trials to assess the effect of amiodarone on mortality and the impact of differences in patient population and study design on trial outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Fifteen randomized trials were identified, and outcome measures were combined by use of a random effects model. The effect of patient population and study design on total mortality was assessed by use of a hierarchical Bayes model. Amiodarone reduced total mortality by 19% (confidence limits, 6% to 31%; P<.01), with somewhat greater reductions in cardiac mortality (23%, P<.001) and sudden death (30%, P<.001). Mortality reductions were similar in trials enrolling patients after myocardial infarction (21%), with left ventricular dysfunction (22%), and after cardiac arrest (25%). There was a trend toward greater risk reduction in trials requiring evidence of ventricular ectopy (25%) than in the remaining trials (10%). The trials using placebo controls had considerably less risk reduction (10%) than trials with active controls (27%) or usual care controls (42%, posterior odds <0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Amiodarone reduced total mortality by 10% to 19% in patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. Amiodarone reduced risk similarly in patients after myocardial infarction, with heart failure, or with clinically evident arrhythmia. The apparent inconsistencies among results of randomized trials appear to be due to small sample sizes and the type of control group used, not the type of patient enrolled.

Description of antipanic therapy in a prospective longitudinal study

The authors present a summary scale for assessing the percentage of patients in a large longitudinal study of panic disorder who received proven effective psychopharmacologic treatment. Such a scale provides a means for assessing and comparing somatic treatments of panic disorder across medication classes. The antipanic therapy levels were applied to data on medication treatment received by 492 patients participating in a naturalistic study and reflect psychopharmacologic treatment prescribed in 11 academic centers. Results show that among patients treated by psychiatrists at major teaching hospitals only 54% of the most symptomatic groups received optimal pharmacologic treatment. Among less symptomatic patients, who nonetheless met full criteria for panic disorder with or without agoraphobia, only 43% received maximal therapy.

Prediction of adolescent affective disorder: effects of prior parental affective disorders and child psychopathology

OBJECTIVE

To examine the role of major parental and child diagnostic factors in predicting episodes of serious affective disorder in adolescents in a nonreferred sample.

METHOD

The sample included 139 youngsters (average age 14 years at enrollment) drawn from a health maintenance organization and evaluated at two points in time 4 years apart. Both parents and adolescents were assessed using structured diagnostic instruments scored according to criterion systems. Parent and child lifetime diagnoses identified in the first assessment were used to predict the onset of episodes of serious affective disorder in the adolescents which occurred between the first and second assessment.

RESULTS

Stepwise multiple regression analyses of the significant univariate factors showed that the most powerful predictors of episodes of affective disorder were total number of diagnoses the adolescents received prior to first assessment, lifetime duration of parental major depressive disorder, and total number of lifetime nonaffective disorders of the parents.

CONCLUSION

Broad risk factors from different domains best predict episodes of affective disorder in children and adolescents.

Assessing risk for the Tourette spectrum of disorders among first-degree relatives of probands with Tourette syndrome

Previous studies have indicated that genetic investigations of Tourette syndrome (TS) should focus on a phenotype that includes not only TS, but chronic tics (CT) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) as well. These studies have shown that sex may play a role in determining which of the disorders in the TS spectrum is expressed in a susceptible individual. Female relatives of TS probands far more often express OCD, while male relatives more often express TS or CT. Data from the Yale Family Study of TS were used to model risk to first-degree relatives of probands with TS for a variety of TS disease phenotypes. Risk to relatives was modeled using multivariate Cox regression analysis, a method appropriate for assessing risk when there is correlation among disease onsets. This is the first known application of this method to family data. The study identified two proband characteristics that increase the risk for disease onset among both male and female relatives for all TS spectrum disorders, lending credence to the hypothesis that TS spectrum disorders share a common etiology. These were a relatively younger age-at-onset, and no experience of simple motor tics. The predictive ability of two additional factors varied by both sex and disease phenotype. These characteristics, i.e., proband onset with compulsive tics, and proband onset with range, appear to increase risk primarily in female relatives, and for the OCD part of the spectrum.

A multiple imputation strategy for clinical trials with truncation of patient data

Clinical trials of drug treatments for psychiatric disorders commonly employ the parallel groups, placebo-controlled, repeated measure randomized comparison. When patients stop adhering to their originally assigned treatment, investigators often abandon data collection. Thus, non-adherence produces a monotone pattern of unit-level missing data, disabling the analysis by intent-to-treat. We propose an approach based on multiple imputation of the missing responses, using the approximate Bayesian bootstrap to draw ignorable repeated imputations from the posterior predictive distribution of the missing data, stratifying by a balancing score for the observed responses prior to withdrawal. We apply the method and some variations to data from a large randomized trial of treatments for panic disorder, and compare the results to those obtained by the original analysis that used the standard (endpoint) method.

Causal estimation of time-varying treatment effects in observational studies: application to depressive disorder

Clinicians recognize three phases of the treatment of major depression: an acute phase to control disabling symptoms, a continuation phase to avoid relapses of a single episode, and a preventive phase to avoid recurrences of new episodes over time. With no directly measurable trace of the underlying pathological process, the distinction is based arbitrarily on the passage of time in remission. The clinician who has successfully treated a patient with antidepressant medications in the acute phase has a critical clinical decision to make for the continuation and preventive phases: whether to continue to prescribe the medication, for how long, and at what dose. This decision, like most clinical decisions in psychiatry, is not yet completely determined by the results of randomized clinical trials. Only a handful of such trials have been completed, covering just a fraction of the possible maintenance strategies (defined by treatment drop times). For many reasons, observational studies of the outcome of naturally occurring treatment choices play an important supporting role, helping to extend the reach of completed studies and to design new studies. Causal inference from observational studies has usually been considered in the context of a decision among a few fixed alternatives at a single time. The particular causal effect of interest in the maintenance of remission dictates that treatment be studied over remission time. This challenges the causal analysis of the observational study. We present issues arising from assessing temporal treatment effects due to nonrandomized treatment assignment over time. We use data from a large observational study of the course of affective illness, to illustrate an approach to this problem.

Remission and relapse in subjects with panic disorder and panic with agoraphobia: a prospective short-interval naturalistic follow-up

This article reports on the course of uncomplicated panic disorder and panic with agoraphobia on 309 patients participating in the Harvard/Brown Anxiety Research Project, a prospective longitudinal study of patients with DSM-III-R-defined anxiety disorders. At 1 year, there was a .39 probability of full remission for uncomplicated panic disorder and a .17 probability of full remission for panic disorder with agoraphobia Similar differences in time to remission for these syndromes were still found when criteria for remission were made less stringent. However, even requiring less improvement for remission left a large percentage of subjects in an episode, and for those that remitted, relapse occurred quickly, indicating a chronic and recurrent course of illness. This is the first longitudinal, prospective, naturalistic study on a large cohort of subjects with anxiety disorders to have regular, structured, short-interval follow-up. Our results are consistent with the view that panic disorder has a chronic course with high rates of relapse after remission and longer episodes when agoraphobia is a part of the constellation of symptoms.

Prognostic effect of the variable course of alcoholism on the 10-year course of depression

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive effect of the clinical activity of patients' alcohol use on the course of major depressive disorder.

METHOD

One hundred seventy-six probands with Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC) diagnoses of both major depressive disorder and alcoholism were compared to 412 probands with major depressive disorder only by using 10 years of short-interval, prospective follow-up data collected as part of the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study. The course of depression was examined by using intensity analysis to represent transitions between states of major depressive disorder. The effect of patients' RDC alcoholism status on the long-term course of major depressive disorder was examined by stratifying the analyses by three levels of alcoholism--never alcoholic, not meeting criteria for current alcoholism, and current alcoholism.

RESULTS

Depressed probands who were either never alcoholic or currently nonactive alcoholic had twice the likelihood of recovery from major depressive disorder than did actively alcoholic depressed probands. The three levels of alcoholism did not differentially predict recurrence of major depressive disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide long-term, empirically derived evidence for the deleterious effect of current alcoholism on recovery from depression. The lack of a differential effect of the three levels of alcoholism on recurrence of major depressive disorder suggests that other factors may have greater predictive value.

Unipolar relatives in bipolar pedigrees: a search for indicators of underlying bipolarity

In an effort to identify features indicative of underlying bipolarity within the unipolar relatives of bipolar probands, we compared unipolar relatives of bipolars with unipolar relatives of unipolars. Using data from the Collaborative Study of the Psychobiology of Depression, we compared a number of demographic and clinical features individually, and then developed a logistic regression model for the differences found. Unipolar relatives of bipolars were somewhat more likely to be male and to have subthreshold bipolar features, and less likely to have panic symptoms. In addition, they had a small but significant decrease in the number of depressive symptoms and a large decrease in all treatment indicators. A multiple logistic regression model for these differences was highly significant, but had limited ability to discriminate between the two groups. These differences are not large enough to effectively discriminate between the groups for the purposes of classification. These particular results may result from a number of factors, most likely the choice of comparison group. Nonetheless, the work demonstrates a potential method for the construction of caseness indices for use in genetic studies of bipolar and other psychiatric disorders.

Causes of death among 936 elderly patients with 'pure' anxiety neurosis in Stockholm County, Sweden, and in patients with depressive neurosis or both diagnoses

The survival probability and distribution of causes of death were estimated among all 255 male and 685 female inpatients with "pure" anxiety neurosis in Stockholm County between 1969 and 1986 who had survived until 71 years of age. When controlling for sex, age, time period, and catchment area, we found three determined suicides among the men (v 0.8 expected) and four suicides among the women (v 1.1 expected). The shift in the distribution of causes of death was significant in women (P = .024). There were 55 heart deaths among the men versus 46.1 expected. Among 2,331 patients with depressive neurosis and among 1,641 patients with both anxiety and depressive neuroses, suicides were more common than expected in both elderly men and women.

The impact of parental affective disorder on depression in offspring: a longitudinal follow-up in a nonreferred sample

OBJECTIVE

This study explored the effects of parental affective disorder on offspring in a nonreferred health maintenance organization 4 years after initial examination.

METHOD

The sample, average age 18.5 years, included 91% of the 153 youngsters initially studied. The main instruments were structured diagnostic interviews scored according to criterion systems for both parents and children; assessment of the youngsters was blind to the previous assessment.

RESULTS

Rates of major depressive disorder were higher in the children of parents with affective disorder (26%) compared with those whose parents had no disorder (10%).

CONCLUSION

Depression and other parental affective disorders, as they occur in the community in parents who often are neither recognized nor treated, are associated with serious affective disorder in offspring. Clinical and preventive approaches for these offspring are needed and should be targeted to all families in which there is serious parental affective disorder, not just those who present for psychiatric treatment.

Patterns and predictors of recovery in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to assess the course and outcome of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa at 1 year in a large cohort of women with eating disorders.

METHOD

A prospective, naturalistic, longitudinal design was used to map the course of 225 women with anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and mixed anorexia and bulimia nervosa. Structured interviews were conducted quarterly. Follow-up data are presented in terms of patterns of recovery, clinical features predictive of time to recovery, and the role of comorbid disorders as fixed predictors.

RESULTS

The recovery rate of bulimics was significantly better than that of anorexic or mixed subjects, yet nearly half the anorexic and mixed subjects no longer met full DSM-III-R criteria for at least 8 consecutive weeks during the first year of follow-up. Percent ideal body weight and type of eating disorder were significantly associated with outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the diagnosis of anorexia nervosa has severe implications.

Influence of depression on the treatment of panic disorder with imipramine, alprazolam and placebo

This paper presents findings from a multisite study of 126 subjects meeting DSM-III-R criteria for Panic Disorder who also met criteria for a concurrent Major Depressive Episode, Dysthymia, or Depressive Disorder NOS. The study's primary aim was to discern the influence of varying degrees of depression on the comparative efficacy of alprazolam, imipramine and placebo on anxiety outcomes. A placebo-controlled, double-blind, parallel random assignment design was utilized over a total of 16 weeks. There was no medication effect on panic outcomes. At endpoint, percent of anticipatory anxiety (i.e., time spent worrying about having an anxiety attack) was significantly lower in the patients taking active medications vs. placebo. Phobic measures were significantly improved by alprazolam, vs. both imipramine and placebo early in the study; however, by week 8 both active medications were equally superior to placebo in the reduction of phobic symptoms. In addition, both active medications were significantly more effective than placebo in reducing depression. The same efficacy pattern (i.e., active medications superior to placebo) was observed on measures of general functioning. Importantly, there were no significant interactions observed between medication and presence of major depression on the depression measures, indicating that both alprazolam and imipramine were equally efficacious in treating the depression in patients with panic disorder and major depression. Since the patients enrolled in this study suffered from major depressive disorder in the mild to moderate severity range, these results may not be transferrable to patients with panic disorder and severe major depression.

Bipolar I: a five-year prospective follow-up

We explored the course of bipolar I illness in 172 probands who were followed up prospectively for up to 5 years. Probands were grouped into three categories based on whether the symptoms of the index episode were only depressed, only manic, or mixed/cycling. Data were available for recovery from the index episode, subsequent relapse, and rates of recovery from the first prospective episode. Pure manic probands had a significantly faster rate of recovery (median, 6 weeks) than the mixed/cycling probands (median, 17 weeks), and the pure depressive probands had an intermediate rate (median, 11 weeks). After 5 years of follow-up the mixed/cycling patients continue to have the lowest cumulative probability of recovery from the index episode. Mixed/cycling probands also had a substantially faster time to relapse after recovery from the index episode compared with pure manic patients. For those patients who relapsed, the mixed/cycling patients had the lowest cumulative probability of recovery from the first prospectively observed episode. The treatment received by these patients is described and there is a discussion of how this treatment may have influenced the findings on course and outcome.

Secular trends in lifetime onset of MDD stratified by selected sociodemographic risk factors

We used multivariate proportional hazards (Cox) models to investigate the effects of cohort of birth on age of first onset of major depression measured independently at two occasions, about six years apart, in the first degree relatives of probands with major affective illnesses. We estimated the cohort trends in strata defined by sociodemographic and other measures, to see if the cohort trends are the same across strata. Graphical summaries of the trends reveal a generally consistent pattern of increasing rates and earlier age of onset with successive birth cohorts, across all strata examined. The relatives with a divorced parent had a somewhat delayed secular increase, suggesting either a ceiling effect or an interaction of the two risk factors (recent cohort of birth and divorced parents) such that the combined effect is less than the sum of the individual effects. Otherwise, the cohort effect is persistent and ubiquitous in this sample.