Geographical shifts in the successional dynamics of inland dune shrub communities

Species' environmental requirements and large-scale spatial and evolutionary processes determine the structure and composition of local communities. However, ecological interactions also have major effects on community assembly at landscape and local scales. We evaluate whether two xerophytic shrub communities occurring in SW Portugal follow constrained ecological assembly dynamics throughout large geographical extents, or their composition is rather driven by species' individualistic responses to environmental and macroecological constraints. Inland dune xerophytic shrub communities were characterized in 95 plots. Then, we described the main gradients of vegetation composition and assessed the relevance of biotic interactions. We also characterized the habitat suitability of the dominant species, Stauracanthus genistoides, and Ulex australis, to map the potential distribution of the xerophytic shrub communities. Finally, we examined the relationships between the vegetation gradients and a broad set of explanatory variables to identify the relative importance of each factor driving changes in community composition. We found that xerophytic shrubs follow uniform successional patterns throughout the whole geographical area studied, but each community responds differently to the main environmental gradients in each region. Soil organic matter is the main determinant of community variations in the northern region, Setúbal Peninsula, whereas aridity is so in the South/South-Western region. In contrast, in the central region, Comporta, the variation between S. genistoides and U. australis communities is explained mainly by aridity and temperature seasonality, followed by the individualistic responses of the dominant species and soil organic matter. Overall, these results indicate that, the relative importance of the main factors causing community-level responses varies according to regional processes and the suitability of the environmental conditions for the dominant species in these communities. These responses are also determined by intrinsic community mechanisms that result in a high degree of similarity in the gradient-driven community stages in different regions.

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions.

Identifying suitable habitats and current conservation status of a rare and elusive reptile in Iran

Knowledge gaps regarding species distribution and abundance are great in remote regions with political instability, and they might be even larger concerning elusive and rare species. We predict the potential distribution for Hierophis andreanus, a poorly known endemic snake in the Iranian Plateau, and assess its conservation status in relation to existing protected areas. We used a maximum entropy modeling tool and Mahalanobis distance to produce an ensemble species distribution model. The most suitable habitats where located mainly in mountain ranges and adjacent areas of Iran and Afghanistan. Mean temperature and slope were the most important predictors for our models. Furthermore, just five localities for H. andreanus were inside the Iranian protected areas. A 10 km expansion from existing boundaries of protected areas in all directions would double protected localities to 10, and a 20 km buffer would result in 13 protected localities. Our findings are particularly valuable to select locations to conduct new surveys and produce a more reliable estimate of current population size to improve conservation and management for this reptile in the Irano-Anatolian region.

Evidence for rangewide panmixia despite multiple barriers to dispersal in a marine mussel

Oceanographic features shape the distributional and genetic patterns of marine species by interrupting or promoting connections among populations. Although general patterns commonly arise, distributional ranges and genetic structure are species-specific and do not always comply with the expected trends. By applying a multimarker genetic approach combined with Lagrangian particle simulations (LPS) we tested the hypothesis that oceanographic features along northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean shores influence dispersal potential and genetic structure of the intertidal mussel Perna perna. Additionally, by performing environmental niche modelling we assessed the potential and realized niche of P. perna along its entire native distributional range and the environmental factors that best explain its realized distribution. Perna perna showed evidence of panmixia across >4,000 km despite several oceanographic breaking points detected by LPS. This is probably the result of a combination of life history traits, continuous habitat availability and stepping-stone dynamics. Moreover, the niche modelling framework depicted minimum sea surface temperatures (SST) as the major factor shaping P. perna distributional range limits along its native areas. Forthcoming warming SST is expected to further change these limits and allow the species to expand its range polewards though this may be accompanied by retreat from warmer areas.

Palaeoclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean explain genetic diversity of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows

Past environmental conditions in the Mediterranean Sea have been proposed as main drivers of the current patterns of distribution of genetic structure of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica, the foundation species of one of the most important ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. Yet, the location of cold climate refugia (persistence regions) for this species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is not clear, precluding the understanding of its biogeographical history. We used Ecological Niche Modelling together with existing phylogeographic data to locate Pleistocene refugia in the Mediterranean Sea and to develop a hypothetical past biogeographical distribution able to explain the genetic diversity presently found in P. oceanica meadows. To do that, we used an ensemble approach of six predictive algorithms and two Ocean General Circulation Models. The minimum SST in winter and the maximum SST in summer allowed us to hindcast the species range during the LGM. We found separate glacial refugia in each Mediterranean basin and in the Central region. Altogether, the results suggest that the Central region of the Mediterranean Sea was the most relevant cold climate refugium, supporting the hypothesis that long-term persistence there allowed the region to develop and retain its presently high proportion of the global genetic diversity of P. oceanica.

Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus , which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula.

METHODS

Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling.

KEY RESULTS

The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides-spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii , the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations.

CONCLUSIONS

: The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary processes driving the evolution of species adaptations and how they determine their current geographical ranges.

High unexpected genetic diversity of a narrow endemic terrestrial mollusc

The Iberian Peninsula has an extensive record of species displaying strong genetic structure as a result of their survival in isolated pockets throughout the Pleistocene ice ages. We used mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data to analyze phylogeographic patterns in endemic land snails from a valley of central Portugal (Vale da Couda), putatively assigned to Candidula coudensis, that show an exceptionally narrow distributional range. The genetic survey presented here shows the existence of five main mitochondrial lineages in Vale da Couda that do not cluster together suggesting independent evolutionary histories. Our results also indicate a departure from the expectation that species with restricted distributions have low genetic variability. The putative past and contemporary models of geographic distribution of Vale da Couda lineages are compatible with a scenario of species co-existence in more southern locations during the last glacial maximum (LGM) followed by a post-LGM northern dispersal tracking the species optimal thermal, humidity and soil physical conditions.