Evaluating the relationship between conditional cash transfer programme on preterm births: a retrospective longitudinal study using the 100 million Brazilian cohort

BACKGROUND

Preterm births increase mortality and morbidity during childhood and later life, which is closely associated with poverty and the quality of prenatal care. Therefore, income redistribution and poverty reduction initiatives may be valuable in preventing this outcome. We assessed whether receipt of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme - Bolsa Familia Programme, the largest in the world - reduces the occurrence of preterm births, including their severity categories, and explored how this association differs according to prenatal care and the quality of Bolsa Familia Programme management.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed involving the first live singleton births to mothersenrolled in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort from 2004 to 2015, who had at least one child before cohort enrollment. Only the first birth during the cohort period was included, but born from 2012 onward. A deterministic linkage with the Bolsa Familia Programme payroll dataset and a similarity linkage with the Brazilian Live Birth Information System were performed. The exposed group consisted of newborns to mothers who received Bolsa Familia from conception to delivery. Our outcomes were infants born with a gestational age < 37 weeks: (i) all preterm births, (ii) moderate-to-late (32-36), (iii) severe (28-31), and (iv) extreme (< 28) preterm births compared to at-term newborns. We combined propensity score-based methods and weighted logistic regressions to compare newborns to mothers who did and did not receive Bolsa Familia, controlling for socioeconomic conditions. We also estimated these effects separately, according to the adequacy of prenatal care and the index of quality of Bolsa Familia Programme management.

RESULTS

1,031,053 infants were analyzed; 65.9% of the mothers were beneficiaries. Bolsa Familia Programme was not associated with all sets of preterm births, moderate-to-late, and severe preterm births, but was associated with a reduction in extreme preterm births (weighted OR: 0.69; 95%CI: 0.63-0.76). This reduction can also be observed among mothers receiving adequate prenatal care (weighted OR: 0.66; 95%CI: 0.59-0.74) and living in better Bolsa Familia management municipalities (weighted OR: 0.56; 95%CI: 0.43-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

An income transfer programme for pregnant women of low-socioeconomic status, conditional to attending prenatal care appointments, has been associated with a reduction in extremely preterm births. These programmes could be essential in achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

Postnatal growth in small vulnerable newborns: a longitudinal study of 2 million Brazilians using routine register-based linked data

BACKGROUND

Preterm, low-birth weight (LBW) and small-for-gestational age (SGA) newborns have a higher frequency of adverse health outcomes, including linear and ponderal growth impairment.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the growth trajectories and to estimate catch-up growth during the first 5 y of life of small newborns according to 3 vulnerability phenotypes (preterm, LBW, SGA).

METHODS

Longitudinal study using linked data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort baseline, the Brazilian National Live Birth System (SINASC), and the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN) from 2011 to 2017. We estimated the length/height-for-age (L/HAZ) and weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) trajectories from children of 6-59 mo using the linear mixed model for each vulnerable newborn phenotype. Growth velocity for both L/HAZ and WAZ was calculated considering the change (Δ) in the mean z-score between 2 time points. Catch-up growth was defined as a change in z-score > 0.67 at any time during follow-up.

RESULTS

We analyzed 2,021,998 live born children and 8,726,599 observations. The prevalence of at least one of the vulnerable phenotypes was 16.7% and 0.6% were simultaneously preterm, LBW, and SGA. For those born at term, all phenotypes had a period of growth recovery from 12 mo. For preterm infants, the onset of L/HAZ growth recovery started later at 24 mo and the growth trajectories appear to be lower than those born at term, a condition aggravated among children with the 3 phenotypes. Preterm and female infants seem to experience slower growth recovery than those born at term and males. The catch-up growth occurs at 24-59 mo for males preterm: preterm + AGA + NBW (Δ = 0.80), preterm + AGA + LBW (Δ = 0.88), and preterm + SGA + LBW (Δ = 1.08); and among females: term + SGA + NBW (Δ = 0.69), term + AGA + LBW (Δ = 0.72), term + SGA + LBW (Δ = 0.77), preterm + AGA + LBW (Δ = 0.68), and preterm + SGA + LBW (Δ = 0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Children born preterm seem to reach L/HAZ and WAZ growth trajectories lower than those attained by children born at term, a condition aggravated among the most vulnerable.

Participation in Conditional Cash Transfer Program During Pregnancy and Birth Weight-Related Outcomes

Importance

There is limited evidence of the association of conditional cash transfers, an important strategy to reduce poverty, with prevention of adverse birth-related outcomes.

Objective

To investigate the association between receiving benefits from the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) and birth weight indicators.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a linked data resource, the Centro de Integracao de Dados e Conhecimentos Para Saude (CIDACS) birth cohort. All live-born singleton infants born to mothers registered in the cohort between January 2012 and December 2015 were included. Each analysis was conducted for the overall population and separately by level of education, self-reported maternal race, and number of prenatal appointments. Data were analyzed from January 3 to April 24, 2023.

Exposure

Live births of mothers who had received BFP until delivery (for a minimum of 9 months) were classified as exposed and compared with live births from mothers who did not receive the benefit prior to delivery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Low birth weight (LBW), birth weight in grams, and small for gestational age (SGA) were evaluated. Analytical methods used included propensity score estimation, kernel matching, and weighted logistic and linear regressions. Race categories included Parda, which translates from Portuguese as "brown" and is used to denote individuals whose racial background is predominantly Black and those with multiracial or multiethnic ancestry, including European, African, and Indigenous origins.

Results

A total of 4 277 523 live births (2 085 737 females [48.8%]; 15 207 among Asian [0.4%], 334 225 among Black [7.8%], 29 115 among Indigenous [0.7%], 2 588 363 among Parda [60.5%], and 1 310 613 among White [30.6%] mothers) were assessed. BFP was associated with an increase of 17.76 g (95% CI, 16.52-19.01 g) in birth weight. Beneficiaries had an 11% lower chance of LBW (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90). BFP was associated with a greater decrease in odds of LBW among subgroups of mothers who attended fewer than 7 appointments (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84-0.87), were Indigenous (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61-0.88), and had 3 or less years of education (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.72-0.81). There was no association between BFP and SGA, except among less educated mothers, who had a reduced risk of SGA (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.88).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that BFP was associated with increased birth weight and reduced odds of LBW, with a greater decrease in odds of LBW among higher-risk groups. These findings suggest the importance of maintaining financial support for mothers at increased risk of birth weight-related outcomes.

A completeness indicator of gestational and congenital syphilis information in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the quality of information on gestational syphilis (GS) and congenital syphilis (CS) on the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN-Syphilis Brazil - Notifiable Diseases Information System) by compiling and validating completeness indicators between 2007 and 2018.

METHODS

Overall, care, and socioeconomic completeness scores were compiled based on selected variables, by using ad hoc weights assigned by experts. The completeness scores were analysed, considering the region and area of residence, the pregnant woman's race/colour, and the year of case notification. Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to validate the scores obtained by the weighted average method, compared with the values obtained by principal component analysis (PCA).

RESULTS

Most selected variables presented a good or excellent degree of completeness for GS and CS, except for clinical classification, pregnant woman's level of education, partner's treatment, and child's race/colour, which were classified as poor or very poor. The overall (89.93% versus 89.69%) and socioeconomic (88.71% versus 88.24%) completeness scores for GS and CS, respectively, were classified as regular, whereas the care score (GS-90.88%, and CS-90.72%) was good, despite improvements over time. Differences in the overall, care and socioeconomic completeness scores according to region, area of residence, and ethnic-racial groups were reported for syphilis notifications. The completeness scores estimated by the weighted average method and PCA showed a strong linear correlation (> 0.90).

CONCLUSION

The completeness of GS and CS notifications has been improving in recent years, highlighting the variables that form the care score, compared with the socioeconomic scores, despite differences between regions, area of residence, and ethnic-racial groups. The weighted average was a viable methodological alternative easily operationalised to estimate data completeness scores, allowing routine monitoring of the completeness of gestational and congenital syphilis records.

Cesarean sections and early-term births according to Robson classification: a population-based study with more than 17 million births in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Cesarean section (CS) rates are increasing worldwide and are associated with negative maternal and child health outcomes when performed without medical indication. However, there is still limited knowledge about the association between high CS rates and early-term births. This study explored the association between CSs and early-term births according to the Robson classification.

METHODS

A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed with routine registration data of live births in Brazil between 2012 and 2019. We used the Robson classification system to compare groups with expected high and low CS rates. We used propensity scores to compare CSs to vaginal deliveries (1:1) and estimated associations with early-term births using logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 17,081,685 live births were included. Births via CS had higher odds of early-term birth (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.32-1.32) compared to vaginal deliveries. Births by CS to women in Group 2 (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.49-1.51) and 4 (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.56-1.58) showed the highest odds of early-term birth, compared to vaginal deliveries. Increased odds of an early-term birth were also observed among births by CS to women in Group 3 (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.29-1.31), compared to vaginal deliveries. In addition, live births by CS to women with a previous CS (Group 5 - OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.35-1.37), a single breech pregnancy (Group 6 - OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.11-1.21, and Group 7 - OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.23), and multiple pregnancies (Group 8 - OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52) had high odds of an early-term birth, compared to live births by vaginal delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

CSs were associated with increased odds of early-term births. The highest odds of early-term birth were observed among those births by CS in Robson Groups 2 and 4.

New statistical process control charts for overdispersed count data based on the Bell distribution

Poisson distribution is a popular discrete model used to describe counting information, from which traditional control charts involving count data, such as the c and u charts, have been established in the literature. However, several studies recognize the need for alternative control charts that allow for data overdispersion, which can be encountered in many fields, including ecology, healthcare, industry, and others. The Bell distribution, recently proposed by Castellares et al. (2018), is a particular solution of a multiple Poisson process able to accommodate overdispersed data. It can be used as an alternative to the usual Poisson (which, although not nested in the Bell family, is approached for small values of the Bell distribution) Poisson, negative binomial, and COM-Poisson distributions for modeling count data in several areas. In this paper, we consider the Bell distribution to introduce two new exciting, and useful statistical control charts for counting processes, which are capable of monitoring count data with overdispersion. The performance of the so-called Bell charts, namely Bell-c and Bell-u charts, is evaluated by the average run length in numerical simulation. Some artificial and real data sets are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts.

Subsidised housing and diabetes mortality: a retrospective cohort study of 10 million low-income adults in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Housing-related factors can be predictors of health, including of diabetes outcomes. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and diabetes mortality among a large cohort of low-income adults in Brazil.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A cohort of 9 961 271 low-income adults, observed from January 2010 to December 2015, was created from Brazilian administrative records of social programmes and death certificates. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and time to diabetes mortality using a Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and regression adjustment. We assessed inequalities in this association by groups of municipality Human Development Index. Diabetes mortality included diabetes both as the underlying or a contributory cause of death.

RESULTS

At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 40.3 years (SD 15.6 years), with a majority of women (58.4%). During 29 238 920 person-years of follow-up, there were 18 775 deaths with diabetes as the underlying or a contributory cause. 340 683 participants (3.4% of the cohort) received subsidised housing. Subsidised housing residents had a higher hazard of diabetes mortality compared with non-residents (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). The magnitude of this association was more pronounced among participants living in municipalities with lower Human Development Index (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.62).

CONCLUSIONS

Subsidised housing residents had a greater risk of diabetes mortality, particularly those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities. This finding suggests the need to intensify diabetes prevention and control actions and prompt treatment of the diabetes complications among subsidised housing residents, particularly among those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D deficiency is associated with atopy, and sex may be an effect modifier of its association with asthma in teenagers from northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE

Sufficient vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]) serum levels are associated with decreased asthma symptoms. Our aim was to investigate associations between vitamin D and atopy, asthma, asthma severity, and asthma phenotypes in Brazilian teenagers.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study involved 942 individuals (11-19 years old) engaged in an asthma cohort. The ISAAC questionnaire was employed to diagnosis asthma and asthma severity. Serum allergen-specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE) was measured by ImmunoCap and serum 25(OH)D was measured by ELISA. We calculated the correlation between sIgE and 25(OH)D. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess associations of interest.

RESULTS

We found that 25(OH)D deficiency was positively associated with atopy (OR 1.45, confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.00) and high levels of this vitamin negatively correlated with sIgE to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (r = -0.11, p = 0.019). The average 25(OH)D serum level was 27.0 ± 9.5 ng/ml; 366 individuals (38.8%) had a sufficient level. There was no association between 25(OH)D and asthma, asthma severity or asthma phenotypes in the population. However, sex was a possible effect modifier of the association between vitamin D and asthma: insufficiency in asthmatic women (86%) was higher than in asthmatic men (42%), and there was an association between insufficient vitamin D levels and greater asthma risk only in women (OR = 3.06, 95% CI 1.16-8.07).

CONCLUSION

We have shown that vitamin D deficiency was associated with greater risk of atopy in both sexes and vitamin D insufficiency was associated with asthma only in women. There was no association between vitamin D levels and asthma phenotypes or asthma severity.

Differences in risk factors for incident and recurrent preterm birth: a population-based linkage of 3.5 million births from the CIDACS birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth (PTB) is a syndrome resulting from a complex list of underlying causes and factors, and whether these risk factors differ in the context of prior PTB history is less understood. The aim of this study was to explore whether PTB risk factors in a second pregnancy were different in women with versus without previous PTB.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study using data from the birth cohort of the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS) for the period 2001 to 2015. We used longitudinal transition models with multivariate logistic regression to investigate whether risk factors varied between incident and recurrent PTB.

RESULTS

A total of 3,528,050 live births from 1,764,025 multiparous women were analyzed. We identified different risk factors (P_difference <0.05) between incident and recurrent PTB. The following were associated with an increased chance for PTB incidence, but not recurrent: household overcrowding (OR 1.09), maternal race/ethnicity [(Black/mixed-OR 1.04) and (indigenous-OR 1.34)], young maternal age (14 to 19 years-OR 1.16), and cesarean delivery (OR 1.09). The following were associated with both incident and recurrent PTB, respectively: single marital status (OR 0.85 vs 0.90), reduced number of prenatal visits [(no visit-OR 2.56 vs OR 2.16) and (1 to 3 visits-OR 2.44 vs OR 2.24)], short interbirth interval [(12 to 23 months-OR 1.04 vs OR 1.22) and (<12 months, OR 1.89, 95 vs OR 2.58)], and advanced maternal age (35-49 years-OR 1.42 vs OR 1.45). For most risk factors, the point estimates were higher for incident PTB than recurrent PTB.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors for PTB in the second pregnancy differed according to women's first pregnancy PTB status. The findings give the basis for the development of specific prevention strategies for PTB in a subsequent pregnancy.

Recurrence of preterm births: A population-based linkage with 3.5 million live births from the CIDACS Birth Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the recurrence of preterm birth (PTB) among the poorest half of the Brazilian population.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective study was conducted in Brazil with the live births of multiparous women extracted from the CIDACS Birth Cohort between 2001 and 2015. We used multivariate logistic regression to estimate the odds of recurrent PTB in second and third births.

RESULTS

A total of 3 528 050 live births from 1 764 025 multiparous women were analyzed. The adjusted odds for the occurrence of a PTB given a previous PTB was 2.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.53-2.62). Lower gestational age increased the odds of a subsequent PTB (<28 weeks: adjusted OR [aOR] 3.61, 95% CI 3.41-3.83; 28-31 weeks: aOR 3.34, 95% CI 3.19-3.49; and 32-36 weeks: aOR 2.42, 95% CI 2.38-2.47). Women who had two previous PTBs were at high risk of having a third (aOR 4.98, 95% CI 4.70-5.27). Recurrence of PTB was more likely when the inter-birth interval was less than 12 months.

CONCLUSION

In Brazil, a middle-income country, women with a previous PTB had an increased risk of a subsequent one. This association was affected by gestational age, the number of PTBs, severity of previous PTBs, and a short interval between births.

Factors associated with small- and large-for-gestational-age in socioeconomically vulnerable individuals in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence points to diverse risk factors associated with small- (SGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) births. A more comprehensive understanding of these factors is imperative, especially in vulnerable populations.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the occurrence of and sociodemographic factors associated with SGA and LGA births in poor and extremely poor populations of Brazil.

METHODS

The study population consisted of women of reproductive age (14-49 y), whose last child was born between 2012 and 2015. INTERGROWTH 21st consortium criteria were used to classify weight for gestational age according to sex. Multinomial logistic regression modeling was performed to investigate associations of interest.

RESULTS

Of 5,521,517 live births analyzed, SGA and LGA corresponded to 7.8% and 17.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed greater odds of SGA in children born to women who self-reported as black (OR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.22), mixed-race (parda) (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.09), or indigenous (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.15), were unmarried (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.08), illiterate (OR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.42, 1.52), did not receive prenatal care (OR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.53, 1.60), or were aged 14-20 y (OR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.22) or 35-49 y (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.13). Considering LGA children, higher odds were found in infants born to women living in households with ≥3 inadequate housing conditions (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.12), in indigenous women (OR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.25), those who had 1-3 y of schooling (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.19), 1-3 prenatal visits (OR: 1.16; CI 95%: 1.14, 1.17), or were older (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.25, 1.27).

CONCLUSIONS

In poorer Brazilian populations, socioeconomic, racial, and maternal characteristics are consistently associated with the occurrence of SGA births, but remain less clearly linked to the occurrence of LGA births.

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil

COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.

Conditional Cash Transfer Program and Leprosy Incidence: Analysis of 12.9 Million Families From the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease predominately affecting poor and marginalized populations. To test the hypothesis that poverty-alleviating policies might be associated with reduced leprosy incidence, we evaluated the association between the Brazilian Bolsa Familia (BFP) conditional cash transfer program and new leprosy case detection using linked records from 12,949,730 families in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2007–2014). After propensity score matching BFP beneficiary to nonbeneficiary families, we used Mantel-Haenszel tests and Poisson regressions to estimate incidence rate ratios for new leprosy case detection and secondary endpoints related to operational classification and leprosy-associated disabilities at diagnosis. Overall, cumulative leprosy incidence was 17.4/100,000 person-years at risk (95% CI: 17.1, 17.7) and markedly higher in “priority” (high-burden) versus “nonpriority” (low-burden) municipalities (22.8/100,000 person-years at risk, 95% confidence interval (CI): 22.2, 23.3, compared with 14.3/100,000 person-years at risk, 95% CI: 14.0, 14.7). After matching, BFP participation was not associated with leprosy incidence overall (incidence rate ratio (IRR)_Poisson = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.04) but was associated with lower leprosy incidence when restricted to families living in high-burden municipalities (IRR_Poisson = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.96). In high-burden municipalities, the association was particularly pronounced for paucibacillary cases (IRR_Poisson = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.98) and cases with leprosy-associated disabilities (IRR_Poisson = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.97). These findings provide policy-relevant evidence that social policies might contribute to ongoing leprosy control efforts in high-burden communities.

CIDACS-RL: a novel indexing search and scoring-based record linkage system for huge datasets with high accuracy and scalability

Background

Record linkage is the process of identifying and combining records about the same individual from two or more different datasets. While there are many open source and commercial data linkage tools, the volume and complexity of currently available datasets for linkage pose a huge challenge; hence, designing an efficient linkage tool with reasonable accuracy and scalability is required.

Methods

We developed CIDACS-RL (Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health – Record Linkage), a novel iterative deterministic record linkage algorithm based on a combination of indexing search and scoring algorithms (provided by Apache Lucene). We described how the algorithm works and compared its performance with four open source linkage tools (AtyImo, Febrl, FRIL and RecLink) in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive value using gold standard dataset. We also evaluated its accuracy and scalability using a case-study and its scalability and execution time using a simulated cohort in serial (single core) and multi-core (eight core) computation settings.

Results

Overall, CIDACS-RL algorithm had a superior performance: positive predictive value (99.93% versus AtyImo 99.30%, RecLink 99.5%, Febrl 98.86%, and FRIL 96.17%) and sensitivity (99.87% versus AtyImo 98.91%, RecLink 73.75%, Febrl 90.58%, and FRIL 74.66%). In the case study, using a ROC curve to choose the most appropriate cut-off value (0.896), the obtained metrics were: sensitivity = 92.5% (95% CI 92.07–92.99), specificity = 93.5% (95% CI 93.08–93.8) and area under the curve (AUC) = 97% (95% CI 96.97–97.35). The multi-core computation was about four times faster (150 seconds) than the serial setting (550 seconds) when using a dataset of 20 million records.

Conclusion

CIDACS-RL algorithm is an innovative linkage tool for huge datasets, with higher accuracy, improved scalability, and substantially shorter execution time compared to other existing linkage tools. In addition, CIDACS-RL can be deployed on standard computers without the need for high-speed processors and distributed infrastructures.

Factors associated with low birth weight at term: a population-based linkage study of the 100 million Brazilian cohort

BACKGROUND

Factors associated with low birth weight at term (TLBW), a proxy for intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), are not well-elucidated in socioeconomically vulnerable populations. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with TLBW in impoverished Brazilian women.

METHODS

Records in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort database were linked to those in the National System of Information on Live Births (SINASC) to obtain obstetric, maternal, birth and socioeconomic data between 2001 and 2015. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate associations between variables of exposure and TLBW.

RESULTS

Of 8,768,930 term live births analyzed, 3.7% presented TLBW. The highest odds of TLBW were associated with female newborns (OR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.47-1.50), whose mothers were black (OR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.18-1.22), had a low educational level (OR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.53-1.62), were aged ≥35 years (OR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.43-1.46), had a low number of prenatal care visits (OR: 2.48; 95% CI: 2.42-2.54) and were primiparous (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.60-1.64). Lower odds of TLBW were found among infants whose mothers lived in the North, Northeast and Center-West regions of Brazil compared to those in the South.

CONCLUSION

Multiple aspects were associated with TLBW, highlighting the need to comprehensively examine the mechanisms underlying these factors, especially in more vulnerable Brazilian populations, in order to contribute to the elaboration of health policies and promote better conditions of life for poor and extremely poor mothers and children.

Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on leprosy treatment adherence and cure in patients from the nationwide 100 Million Brazilian Cohort: a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

Indirect financial costs and barriers to health-care access might contribute to leprosy treatment non-adherence. We estimated the association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme, the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), on leprosy treatment adherence and cure in patients in Brazil.

METHODS

In this quasi-experimental study, we linked baseline demographic and socioeconomic information for individuals who entered the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2014, with the PBF payroll database and the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, which includes nationwide leprosy registries. Individuals were eligible for inclusion if they had a household member older than 15 years and had not received PBF aid or been diagnosed with leprosy before entering the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort; they were excluded if they were partial receivers of PBF benefits, had missing data, or had a monthly per-capita income greater than BRL200 (US$50). Individuals who were PBF beneficiaries before leprosy diagnosis were matched to those who were not beneficiaries through propensity-score matching (1:1) with replacement on the basis of baseline covariates, including sex, age, race or ethnicity, education, work, income, place of residence, and household characteristics. We used logistic regression to assess the average treatment effect on the treated of receipt of PBF benefits on leprosy treatment adherence (six or more multidrug therapy doses for paucibacillary cases or 12 or more doses for multibacillary cases) and cure in individuals of all ages. We stratified our analysis according to operational disease classification (paucibacillary or multibacillary). We also did a subgroup analysis of paediatric leprosy restricted to children aged up to 15 years.

FINDINGS

We included 11 456 new leprosy cases, of whom 8750 (76·3%) had received PBF before diagnosis and 2706 (23·6%) had not. Overall, 9508 (83·0%) patients adhered to treatment and 10 077 (88·0%) were cured. After propensity score matching, receiving PBF before diagnosis was associated with adherence to treatment (OR 1·22, 95% CI 1·01-1·48) and cure (1·26, 1·01-1·58). PBF receipt did not significantly improve treatment adherence (1·37, 0·98-1·91) or cure (1·12, 0·75-1·67) in patients with paucibacillary leprosy. For patients with multibacillary disease, PBF beneficiaries had better treatment adherence (1·37, 1·08-1·74) and cure (1·43, 1·09-1·90) than non-beneficiaries. In the propensity score-matched analysis in 2654 children younger than 15 years with leprosy, PBF exposure was not associated with leprosy treatment adherence (1·55, 0·89-2·68) or cure (1·57, 0·83-2·97).

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that being a beneficiary of the PBF, which facilitates cash transfers and improved access to health care, is associated with greater leprosy multidrug therapy adherence and cure in multibacillary cases. These results are especially relevant for patients with multibacillary disease, who are treated for a longer period and have lower cure rates than those with paucibacillary disease.

FUNDING

CONFAP/ESRC/MRC/BBSRC/CNPq/FAPDF-Doenças Negligenciadas, the UK Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brazil (CAPES).

The Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS): Linking Health and Social Data in Brazil

The Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS) was created in 2016 in Salvador, Bahia-Brazil with the objective of integrating data and knowledge aiming to answer scientific questions related to the health of the Brazilian population. This article details our experiences in the establishment and operations of CIDACS, as well as efforts made to obtain high-quality linked data while adhering to security, ethical use and privacy issues. Every effort has been made to conduct operations while implementing appropriate structures, procedures, processes and controls over the original and integrated databases in order to provide adequate datasets to answer relevant research questions. Looking forward, CIDACS is expected to be an important resource for researchers and policymakers interested in enhancing the evidence base pertaining to different aspects of health, in particular when investigating, from a nation-wide perspective, the role of social determinants of health and the effects of social and environmental policies on different health outcomes.

Administrative Data Linkage in Brazil: Potentials for Health Technology Assessment

Health technology assessment (HTA) is the systematic evaluation of the properties and impacts of health technologies and interventions. In this article, we presented a discussion of HTA and its evolution in Brazil, as well as a description of secondary data sources available in Brazil with potential applications to generate evidence for HTA and policy decisions. Furthermore, we highlighted record linkage, ongoing record linkage initiatives in Brazil, and the main linkage tools developed and/or used in Brazilian data. Finally, we discussed the challenges and opportunities of using secondary data for research in the Brazilian context. In conclusion, we emphasized the availability of high quality data and an open, modern attitude toward the use of data for research and policy. This is supported by a rigorous but enabling legal framework that will allow the conduct of large-scale observational studies to evaluate clinical, economical, and social impacts of health technologies and social policies.

Propensity Score Methods in Health Technology Assessment: Principles, Extended Applications, and Recent Advances

Randomized clinical trials (RCT) are accepted as the gold-standard approaches to measure effects of intervention or treatment on outcomes. They are also the designs of choice for health technology assessment (HTA). Randomization ensures comparability, in both measured and unmeasured pretreatment characteristics, of individuals assigned to treatment and control or comparator. However, even adequately powered RCTs are not always feasible for several reasons such as cost, time, practical and ethical constraints, and limited generalizability. RCTs rely on data collected on selected, homogeneous population under highly controlled conditions; hence, they provide evidence on efficacy of interventions rather than on effectiveness. Alternatively, observational studies can provide evidence on the relative effectiveness or safety of a health technology compared to one or more alternatives when provided under the setting of routine health care practice. In observational studies, however, treatment assignment is a non-random process based on an individual’s baseline characteristics; hence, treatment groups may not be comparable in their pretreatment characteristics. As a result, direct comparison of outcomes between treatment groups might lead to biased estimate of the treatment effect. Propensity score approaches have been used to achieve balance or comparability of treatment groups in terms of their measured pretreatment covariates thereby controlling for confounding bias in estimating treatment effects. Despite the popularity of propensity scores methods and recent important methodological advances, misunderstandings on their applications and limitations are all too common. In this article, we present a review of the propensity scores methods, extended applications, recent advances, and their strengths and limitations.

Factors associated with the double burden of malnutrition among adolescents, National Adolescent School-Based Health Survey (PENSE 2009 and 2015)

Objective

To assess the sociodemographic factors associated with the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) among Brazilian adolescents.

Methods

This was a descriptive study based on data from 59,637 and 10,770 students who participated in the National Adolescent School-Based Health Survey (PeNSE), 2009 and 2015 editions, respectively. Weight and height measurements were obtained to evaluate nutritional status. DBM was classified as follows: adolescents with high BMI-for-age and low height-for-age (BMI/A: Z-score > +1 and H/A: Z-score < -2). Sociodemographic data on the participants were also collected. A multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to detect associations of interest.

Results

The prevalence of DBM in the 2009 and 2015 editions of the PeNSE was 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. In the 2009 edition, the chance of DBM was lower among boys (OR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.45–0.81) and higher among those over 14 years old (OR = 2.40; 95% CI = 1.80–3.20), living in the country’s north and northeast regions (OR = 2.01; 95% CI = 1.49–2.84), and from families with a low maternal education level (OR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.07–2.04). In the 2015 edition, no significant associations were found regarding the DBM outcome.

Conclusion

The results indicate the presence of socioeconomic inequalities in the occurrence of DBM in the 2009 edition of the PeNSE. Simultaneous interventions in the area of equity are necessary to prevent the advancement of nutrition-related problems.

African biogeographical ancestry, atopic and non-atopic asthma and atopy: A study in Latin American children

BACKGROUND

Genetic variants underlying African ancestry have been suggested be implicated in the ethnic-racial inequalities reported for asthma and allergies.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between individual African ancestry and asthma symptoms, atopic and non-atopic asthma, and atopy in children.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study encompassing 1190 individuals was conducted. African biogeographic ancestry was estimated using 370 539 genome-wide SNPs. Serum levels of specific IgE were measured, and skin prick test (SPT) performed for the most common local aeroallergens. Information on asthma symptoms was obtained by applying the International Study of Allergy and Asthma in Childhood questionnaire. The associations between the proportion of individual African ancestry and the outcomes investigated were analyzed through multivariate models adjusted for socio-environmental variables, infections markers, and psychosocial factors.

RESULTS

Each 20% increase in the proportion of African ancestry was negatively associated with SPT reactivity (OR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.66-0.96) and positively associated with asthma symptoms in non-atopic individuals (OR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.03-1.89). We estimated that socioeconomic status and number of infections mediated 28.4% of the effect of African ancestry on SPT reactivity, while 20.2% of the effect on non-atopic asthma was explained by socioeconomic status and behavioral problems in children.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative association observed between African ancestry and atopy is most probably explained by unobserved environmental or social factors that covariate with ancestry. For non-atopic asthma, in turn, putative genetic variants of risk underlying African ancestry may play some role.

Social, Environmental and Behavioral Determinants of Asthma Symptoms in Brazilian Middle School Students-A National School Health Survey (Pense 2012)

Biological and psychosocial factors are recognized contributors to the worldwide burden of asthma. However, the relationship between psychosocial factors and asthma symptoms among students in low- and middle-income countries remains underexplored. We aimed to identify socioeconomic, environmental, psychosocial, family-related and lifestyle factors associated with the self-reporting of asthma symptoms in Brazilian adolescents. This is a cross-sectional study using data from the 2012 PeNSE survey (n = 109,104). We analyzed the following variables: socioeconomic conditions, demographic characteristics, lifestyle, family context and dynamics, psychosocial indicators, smoking, and exposure to violence. Our outcome variable was the self-report of asthma symptoms in the past 12 months. The prevalence of wheezing was 22.7% (21.5–23.9). After adjusting for sex, age and the variables from higher hierarchical levels, exposure to violence (feeling unsafe at school, being frequently bullied, being exposed to fights with firearms) and physical aggression by an adult in the family were the environmental factors that showed the strongest associations with self-reporting of asthma symptoms. For psychosocial indicators of mental health and social integration, feelings of loneliness and sleeping problems were the strongest factors, and among individual behavioral factors, the largest associations were found for tobacco consumption. Our findings were consistent with previous studies, showing an association between self-reported asthma symptoms and socio-economic status, family context and dynamics, psychosocial indicators of mental health, exposure to violence and social integration, as well as a sedentary lifestyle and tobacco use.

Biogeographical ancestry is associated with socioenvironmental conditions and infections in a Latin American urban population

Racial inequalities are observed for different diseases and are mainly caused by differences in socioeconomic status between ethnoracial groups. Genetic factors have also been implicated, and recently, several studies have investigated the association between biogeographical ancestry (BGA) and complex diseases. However, the role of BGA as a proxy for non-genetic health determinants has been little investigated. Similarly, studies comparing the association of BGA and self-reported skin colour with these determinants are scarce. Here, we report the association of BGA and self-reported skin colour with socioenvironmental conditions and infections. We studied 1246 children living in a Brazilian urban poor area. The BGA was estimated using 370,539 genome-wide autosomal markers. Standardised questionnaires were administered to the children’s guardians to evaluate socioenvironmental conditions. Infection (or pathogen exposure) was defined by the presence of positive serologic test results for IgG to seven pathogens (Toxocara spp, Toxoplasma gondii, Helicobacter pylori, and hepatitis A, herpes simplex, herpes zoster and Epstein-Barr viruses) and the presence of intestinal helminth eggs in stool samples (Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichiuris trichiura). African ancestry was negatively associated with maternal education and household income and positively associated with infections and variables, indicating poorer housing and living conditions. The self-reported skin colour was associated with infections only. In stratified analyses, the proportion of African ancestry was associated with most of the outcomes investigated, particularly among admixed individuals. In conclusion, BGA was associated with socioenvironmental conditions and infections even in a low-income and highly admixed population, capturing differences that self-reported skin colour miss. Importantly, our findings suggest caution in interpreting significant associations between BGA and diseases as indicative of the genetic factors involved.

•

We studied the relationship between BGA and social determinants of health.

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We compared the BGA and the self-reported skin color as proxies for these determinants.

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African ancestry was associated with poor socioenvironmental conditions and infections.

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The self-reported skin color was associated with infections only.

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Social stratification related to BGA persists even in a poor and highly admixed population.

Screening for common mental disorders using the SRQ-20 in Brazil: what are the alternative strategies for analysis?

Objective:

To analyze the prevalence of common mental disorders (CMD) assessed with the Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), using the established cutoff point, and comparing it with the results of a joint correspondence factor analysis (CFA) and cluster analysis and of a latent class analysis (LCA).

Methods:

A cross-sectional study was carried out in an urban sample of 1,095 women aged 19 to 55 years. Joint CFA-cluster analysis and LCA were used.

Results:

We found a high prevalence of CMD, regardless of classification method (37.6% when using the cutoff point; 44.4% and 52% for LCA and joint CFA-cluster, respectively). The alternative analysis strategies describe the cases more efficiently when compared to the traditional cutoff method, especially regarding more severe symptoms. Both alternative strategies also provide a description of the SRQ-20 dimensions in their particularities, which may be useful for the planning and implementation of specific actions in a given population.

Conclusion:

The SRQ-20 cutoff point seems to underestimate the magnitude of CMD among women. The alternative methods of analysis presented herein highlight the different possibilities of using this important instrument of screening for mental health.

Evaluation of record linkage of two large administrative databases in a middle income country: stillbirths and notifications of dengue during pregnancy in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Due to the increasing availability of individual-level information across different electronic datasets, record linkage has become an efficient and important research tool. High quality linkage is essential for producing robust results. The objective of this study was to describe the process of preparing and linking national Brazilian datasets, and to compare the accuracy of different linkage methods for assessing the risk of stillbirth due to dengue in pregnancy.

METHODS

We linked mothers and stillbirths in two routinely collected datasets from Brazil for 2009-2010: for dengue in pregnancy, notifications of infectious diseases (SINAN); for stillbirths, mortality (SIM). Since there was no unique identifier, we used probabilistic linkage based on maternal name, age and municipality. We compared two probabilistic approaches, each with two thresholds: 1) a bespoke linkage algorithm; 2) a standard linkage software widely used in Brazil (ReclinkIII), and used manual review to identify further links. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were estimated using a subset of gold-standard data created through manual review. We examined the characteristics of false-matches and missed-matches to identify any sources of bias.

RESULTS

From records of 678,999 dengue cases and 62,373 stillbirths, the gold-standard linkage identified 191 cases. The bespoke linkage algorithm with a conservative threshold produced 131 links, with sensitivity = 64.4% (68 missed-matches) and PPV = 92.5% (8 false-matches). Manual review of uncertain links identified an additional 37 links, increasing sensitivity to 83.7%. The bespoke algorithm with a relaxed threshold identified 132 true matches (sensitivity = 69.1%), but introduced 61 false-matches (PPV = 68.4%). ReclinkIII produced lower sensitivity and PPV than the bespoke linkage algorithm. Linkage error was not associated with any recorded study variables.

CONCLUSION

Despite a lack of unique identifiers for linking mothers and stillbirths, we demonstrate a high standard of linkage of large routine databases from a middle income country. Probabilistic linkage and manual review were essential for accurately identifying cases for a case-control study, but this approach may not be feasible for larger databases or for linkage of more common outcomes.

Dissociation between skin test reactivity and anti-aeroallergen IgE: Determinants among urban Brazilian children

Background

The dissociation between specific IgE and skin prick test reactivity to aeroallergens, a common finding in populations living in low and middle-income countries, has important implications for the diagnosis and treatment of allergic diseases. Few studies have investigated the determinants of this dissociation. In the present study, we explored potential factors explaining this dissociation in children living in an urban area of Northeast Brazil, focusing in particular on factors associated with poor hygiene.

Methods

Of 1445 children from low income communities, investigated for risk factors of allergies, we studied 481 with specific IgE antibodies to any of Blomia tropicalis, Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus, Periplaneta americana and Blatella germanica allergens. Data on demographic, environmental and social exposures were collected by questionnaire; serum IgG and stool examinations were done to detect current or past infections with viral, bacterial, protozoan and intestinal helminth pathogens. We measured atopy by skin prick testing (SPT) and specific IgE (sIgE) to aerollergens in serum (by ImmunoCAP). SIgE reactivity to B. tropicalis extract depleted of carbohydrates was measured by an in-house ELISA. Total IgE was measured by in house capture ELISA. SNPs were typed using Illumina Omni 2.5.

Results

Negative skin prick tests in the presence of specific IgE antibodies were frequent. Factors independently associated with a reduced frequency of positive skin prick tests were large number of siblings, the presence of IgG to herpes simplex virus, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura infections, living in neighborhoods with infrequent garbage collection, presence of rodents and cats in the household and sIgE reactivity to glycosylated B. tropicalis allergens. Also, SNP on IGHE (rs61737468) was negatively associated with SPT reactivity.

Conclusions

A variety of factors were found to be associated with decreased frequency of SPT such as unhygienic living conditions, infections, total IgE, IgE response to glycosylated allergens and genetic polymorphisms, indicating that multiple mechanisms may be involved. Our data, showing that exposures to an unhygienic environment and childhood infections modulate immediate allergen skin test reactivity, provide support for the “hygiene hypothesis”.

A genome-wide association study of asthma symptoms in Latin American children

Background

Asthma is a chronic disease of the airways and, despite the advances in the knowledge of associated genetic regions in recent years, their mechanisms have yet to be explored. Several genome-wide association studies have been carried out in recent years, but none of these have involved Latin American populations with a high level of miscegenation, as is seen in the Brazilian population.

Methods

1246 children were recruited from a longitudinal cohort study in Salvador, Brazil. Asthma symptoms were identified in accordance with an International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire. Following quality control, 1 877 526 autosomal SNPs were tested for association with childhood asthma symptoms by logistic regression using an additive genetic model. We complemented the analysis with an estimate of the phenotypic variance explained by common genetic variants. Replications were investigated in independent Mexican and US Latino samples.

Results

Two chromosomal regions reached genome-wide significance level for childhood asthma symptoms: the 14q11 region flanking the DAD1 and OXA1L genes (rs1999071, MAF 0.32, OR 1.78, 95 % CI 1.45–2.18, p-value 2.83 × 10⁻⁸) and 15q22 region flanking the FOXB1 gene (rs10519031, MAF 0.04, OR 3.0, 95 % CI 2.02–4.49, p-value 6.68 × 10⁻⁸ and rs8029377, MAF 0.03, OR 2.49, 95 % CI 1.76–3.53, p-value 2.45 × 10⁻⁷). eQTL analysis suggests that rs1999071 regulates the expression of OXA1L gene. However, the original findings were not replicated in the Mexican or US Latino samples.

Conclusions

We conclude that the 14q11 and 15q22 regions may be associated with asthma symptoms in childhood.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12863-015-0296-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Penalised logistic regression and dynamic prediction for discrete-time recurrent event data

We consider methods for the analysis of discrete-time recurrent event data, when interest is mainly in prediction. The Aalen additive model provides an extremely simple and effective method for the determination of covariate effects for this type of data, especially in the presence of time-varying effects and time varying covariates, including dynamic summaries of prior event history. The method is weakened for predictive purposes by the presence of negative estimates. The obvious alternative of a standard logistic regression analysis at each time point can have problems of stability when event frequency is low and maximum likelihood estimation is used. The Firth penalised likelihood approach is stable but in removing bias in regression coefficients it introduces bias into predicted event probabilities. We propose an alterative modified penalised likelihood, intermediate between Firth and no penalty, as a pragmatic compromise between stability and bias. Illustration on two data sets is provided.

Weight gain in the first two years of life, asthma and atopy: the SCAALA cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between weight gain in the first two years of life and the occurrence of wheezing, asthma, serum IgE, skin reactivity and pulmonary function.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

The metropolitan region of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.

SUBJECTS

The association was studied between 1997 and 2005 in 669 children up to 11 years of age. Data were collected on asthma and risk factors, both current factors and those present in the first years of life. Weight gain was considered fast when the Z-score was >0·67. Poisson regression was used in the multivariate statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Wheezing was reported in 25·6 % of the children. Weight gain was considered fast (Z-score >0·67) in 29·6 % of the children and slow (Z-score <-0·67) in 13·9 %. Children in the slow weight gain group had 36 % fewer symptoms of asthma (prevalence ratio = 0·65; 95 % CI 0·42, 0·99).

CONCLUSIONS

Slower weight gain in the early years of life may constitute a protective factor against symptoms of asthma. The relevance of this finding for public health is not yet certain, since it is known that children with slow and fast weight gain may be more likely to develop adverse health consequences related to both these situations.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for Toxocara infection in children from an urban large setting in Northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to standardize an "in house" immunoassay to detect anti-Toxocara IgG antibodies in human serum to estimate the seroprevalence of Toxocara infection, and to identify its potential risk factors in children living in poor areas of Salvador, a large northeastern Brazilian city.

METHODS

Parents of 1309 children answered a questionnaire containing possible risk factor for acquisition of this infection. Blood was collected and the presence of anti-Toxocara IgG antibodies was detected by indirect ELISA using T. canis larval excretory-secretory antigens in sera previously absorbed with Ascaris lumbricoides antigens.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence of Toxocara infection was 48.4%. Children's age, low maternal schooling, contact with dogs and cats, and household located in paved streets were shown to be risk factors for Toxocara infection.

CONCLUSIONS

The seroprevalence of Toxocara infection is high among children living in a poor urban setting of Brazil. The association of low maternal education with higher Toxocara infection supports studies showing that low socioeconomic status is a risk factor for the acquisition of this infection as a reflection of hygiene habits of the family. And both infected-dogs and cats may be involved in this parasite transmission in this children population.

Structural equation modeling in epidemiology

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is an important statistical tool for evaluating complex relations in several research areas. In epidemiology, the use and discussion of SEM have been limited thus far. This article presents basic principles and concepts in SEM, including an application using epidemiological data analysis from a study on the determinants of cognitive development in young children, considering constructs related to organization of the child's home environment, parenting style, and the child's health status. The relations between the constructs and cognitive development were measured. The results showed a positive association between psychosocial stimulus at home and cognitive development in young children. The article presents the contributions by SEM to epidemiology, highlighting the need for an a priori theoretical model for improving the study of epidemiological questions from a new perspective.

Risk factors for atopic and non-atopic asthma in a rural area of Ecuador

Background

Asthma has emerged as an important public health problem of urban populations in Latin America. Epidemiological data suggest that a minority of asthma cases in Latin America may be associated with allergic sensitisation and that other mechanisms causing asthma have been overlooked. The aim of the present study was to investigate risk factors for atopic and non-atopic asthma in school-age children.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 3960 children aged 6–16 years living in Afro-Ecuadorian rural communities in Esmeraldas province in Ecuador. Allergic diseases and risk factors were assessed by questionnaire and allergic sensitisation by allergen skin prick reactivity.

Results

A total of 390 (10.5%) children had wheeze within the previous 12 months, of whom 14.4% had at least one positive skin test. The population-attributable fraction for recent wheeze associated with atopy was 2.4%. Heavy Trichuris trichiura infections were strongly inversely associated with atopic wheeze. Non-atopic wheeze was positively associated with maternal allergic symptoms and sedentarism (watching television (>3 h/day)) but inversely associated with age and birth order.

Conclusions

The present study showed a predominance of non-atopic compared with atopic wheeze among schoolchildren living in a poor rural region of tropical Latin America. Distinct risk factors were associated with the two wheeze phenotypes and may indicate different causal mechanisms. Future preventive strategies in such populations may need to be targeted at the causes of non-atopic wheeze.

Estimating adjusted prevalence ratio in clustered cross-sectional epidemiological data

Background

Many epidemiologic studies report the odds ratio as a measure of association for cross-sectional studies with common outcomes. In such cases, the prevalence ratios may not be inferred from the estimated odds ratios. This paper overviews the most commonly used procedures to obtain adjusted prevalence ratios and extends the discussion to the analysis of clustered cross-sectional studies.

Methods

Prevalence ratios(PR) were estimated using logistic models with random effects. Their 95% confidence intervals were obtained using delta method and clustered bootstrap. The performance of these approaches was evaluated through simulation studies. Using data from two studies with health-related outcomes in children, we discuss the interpretation of the measures of association and their implications.

Results

The results from data analysis highlighted major differences between estimated OR and PR. Results from simulation studies indicate an improved performance of delta method compared to bootstrap when there are small number of clusters.

Conclusion

We recommend the use of logistic model with random effects for analysis of clustered data. The choice of method to estimate confidence intervals for PR (delta or bootstrap method) should be based on study design.

Effect of vitamin A supplementation on diarrhoea and acute lower-respiratory-tract infections in young children in Brazil

A beneficial effect of periodic vitamin A supplementation on childhood mortality has been demonstrated, but the effect on morbidity is less clear. We investigated the effect of vitamin A supplementation on diarrhoea and acute lower-respiratory-tract infections (ALRI) in children from northeastern Brazil in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled community trial. 1240 children aged 6-48 months were assigned vitamin A or placebo every 4 months for 1 year. They were followed up at home three times a week, and data about the occurrence and severity of diarrhoea and ALRI were collected. Any child with cough and respiratory rate above 40 breaths per min was visited by a paediatrician. The overall incidence of diarrhoea episodes was significantly lower in the vitamin-A-supplemented group than in the placebo group (18.42 vs 19.58 x 10(-3) child-days; rate ratio 0.94 [95% Cl 0.90-0.98]). The benefit of supplementation was greater as regards severe episodes of diarrhoea; the incidence was 20% lower in the vitamin A group than in the placebo group (rate ratio 0.80 [0.65-0.98]). With the standard definition of diarrhoea (> or = 3 liquid or semi-liquid stools in 24 h) the effect of vitamin A on mean daily prevalence did not reach significance, but as the definition of diarrhoea was made more stringent (increasing number of stools per day), a significant benefit became apparent, reaching for diarrhoea with 6 or more liquid or semi-liquid stools in 24 h a 23% lower prevalence. We found no effect of vitamin A supplementation on the incidence of ALRI. The reduction in severity of diarrhoea may be the most important factor in the lowering of mortality by vitamin A supplementation.