A Bayesian network analysis quantifying risks versus benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in Australia

The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine is associated with increased myocarditis incidence. Constantly evolving evidence regarding incidence and case fatality of COVID-19 and myocarditis related to infection or vaccination, creates challenges for risk-benefit analysis of vaccination. Challenges are complicated further by emerging evidence of waning vaccine effectiveness, and variable effectiveness against variants. Here, we build on previous work on the COVID-19 Risk Calculator (CoRiCal) by integrating Australian and international data to inform a Bayesian network that calculates probabilities of outcomes for the delta variant under different scenarios of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine coverage, age groups (≥12 years), sex, community transmission intensity and vaccine effectiveness. The model estimates that in a population where 5% were unvaccinated, 5% had one dose, 60% had two doses and 30% had three doses, there was a substantially greater probability of developing (239–5847 times) and dying (1430–384,684 times) from COVID-19-related than vaccine-associated myocarditis (depending on age and sex). For one million people with this vaccine coverage, where transmission intensity was equivalent to 10% chance of infection over 2 months, 68,813 symptomatic COVID-19 cases and 981 deaths would be prevented, with 42 and 16 expected cases of vaccine-associated myocarditis in males and females, respectively. These results justify vaccination in all age groups as vaccine-associated myocarditis is generally mild in the young, and there is unequivocal evidence for reduced mortality from COVID-19 in older individuals. The model may be updated to include emerging best evidence, data pertinent to different countries or vaccines and other outcomes such as long COVID.

Designing an evidence-based Bayesian network for estimating the risk versus benefits of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine

Uncertainty surrounding the risk of developing and dying from Thrombosis and Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS) associated with the AstraZeneca (AZ) COVID-19 vaccine may contribute to vaccine hesitancy. A model is urgently needed to combine and effectively communicate evidence on the risks versus benefits of the AZ vaccine. We developed a Bayesian network to consolidate evidence on risks and benefits of the AZ vaccine, and parameterised the model using data from a range of empirical studies, government reports, and expert advisory groups. Expert judgement was used to interpret the available evidence and determine the model structure, relevant variables, data for inclusion, and how these data were used to inform the model.

The model can be used as a decision-support tool to generate scenarios based on age, sex, virus variant and community transmission rates, making it useful for individuals, clinicians, and researchers to assess the chances of different health outcomes. Model outputs include the risk of dying from TTS following the AZ COVID-19 vaccine, the risk of dying from COVID-19 or COVID-19-associated atypical severe blood clots under different scenarios. Although the model is focused on Australia, it can be adapted to international settings by re-parameterising it with local data. This paper provides detailed description of the model-building methodology, which can be used to expand the scope of the model to include other COVID-19 vaccines, booster doses, comorbidities and other health outcomes (e.g., long COVID) to ensure the model remains relevant in the face of constantly changing discussion on risks versus benefits of COVID-19 vaccination.

Risk-benefit analysis of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in Australia using a Bayesian network modelling framework

Thrombosis and Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS) has been associated with the AstraZencea (AZ) COVID-19 vaccine (Vaxzevria). Australia has reported low TTS incidence of < 3/100,000 after the first dose, with case fatality rate (CFR) of 5-6%. Risk-benefit analysis of vaccination has been challenging because of rapidly evolving data, changing levels of transmission, and variation in rates of TTS, COVID-19, and CFR between age groups. We aim to optimise risk-benefit analysis by developing a model that enables inputs to be updated rapidly as evidence evolves. A Bayesian network was used to integrate local and international data, government reports, published literature and expert opinion. The model estimates probabilities of outcomes under different scenarios of age, sex, low/medium/high transmission (0.05%/0.45%/5.76% of population infected over 6 months), SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccine doses, and vaccine effectiveness. We used the model to compare estimated deaths from AZ vaccine-associated TTS with i) COVID-19 deaths prevented under different scenarios, and ii) deaths from COVID-19 related atypical severe blood clots (cerebral venous sinus thrombosis & portal vein thrombosis). For a million people aged ≥ 70 years where 70% received first dose and 35% received two doses, our model estimated < 1 death from TTS, 25 deaths prevented under low transmission, and > 3000 deaths prevented under high transmission. Risks versus benefits varied significantly between age groups and transmission levels. Under high transmission, deaths prevented by AZ vaccine far exceed deaths from TTS (by 8 to > 4500 times depending on age). Probability of dying from COVID-related atypical severe blood clots was 58-126 times higher (depending on age and sex) than dying from TTS. To our knowledge, this is the first example of the use of Bayesian networks for risk-benefit analysis for a COVID-19 vaccine. The model can be rapidly updated to incorporate new data, adapted for other countries, extended to other outcomes (e.g., severe disease), or used for other vaccines.

Celiac disease and bone health: is there a gap in the management of postmenopausal osteoporosis?

Malabsorption due to celiac disease (CD) may contribute to postmenopausal osteoporosis. This study aimed to survey participants with CD regarding their bone density, fractures, and bone-preserving medications; to compare tolerance of bone-preserving medications in participants with and without CD; and to review the evidence for CD screening and osteoporosis therapies in the setting of CD. We recruited 131 participants with CD and 102 participants without CD. Of those with CD, 87% were diagnosed in adulthood and 40% had no recognized gastrointestinal symptoms. In 21% CD was diagnosed after the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in 9% after a fracture. No difference was found in the tolerability of bone medications between participants with CD and those without. Review of the literature found that, although monitoring of bone health is recommended for patients with CD, screening for CD is not generally accepted for patients with osteoporosis, although studies of the prevalence of CD in osteoporosis had incomplete ascertainment methods. There is a lack of well-conducted studies and therefore insufficient data for the efficacy and tolerability of bone medication in CD. In conclusion, both CD and menopause lead to bone loss. Identifying CD in postmenopausal women should lead to modification of osteoporosis management.

Forensic isoscapes based on intra-individual temporal variation of δ 18O and 206Pb/207Pb in human teeth

Isotopic signatures used in the georeferencing of human remains are largely fixed by spatially distinct geologic and environmental processes. However, location-dependent temporal changes in these isotope ratios should also be considered when determining an individual's provenance and/or trajectory. Distributions of the relevant isotopes can be impacted by predictable external factors such as climate change, delocalisation of food and water sources and changes in sources and uses of metals. Using Multi-Collector Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) analyses of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb in tooth enamel and dentin from a population of 21 ± 1-year-old individuals born circa 1984 and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of δ ¹⁸O in their enamel, we examined the expected influence of some of these factors. The resulting adjustments to the geographic distribution of isotope ratios (isoscapes) found in tooth enamel and dentin may contain additional useful information for forensic identification, but the shifts in values can also impact the uncertainty and usefulness of identifications if they are not taken into account.KEY POINTSIsoscapes of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and δ ¹⁸O used for geolocation are not static.Within a few years, the enamel and dentin of a person may exhibit measurable differences in ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb even without changing locations.Changes in climatic patterns tied to rising temperatures are more significant than the direct effect of increasing temperature on δ ¹⁸O fixed in tooth bioapatite.Third molar (M3) enamel mineralisation includes material incorporated from before formal amelogenesis takes place.

Position Statement on Atopic Dermatitis in Sub-Saharan Africa: current status and roadmap

BACKGROUND

The first International Society of Atopic Dermatitis (ISAD) global meeting dedicated to atopic dermatitis (AD) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was held in Geneva, Switzerland in April 2019. A total of 30 participants were present at the meeting, including those from 17 SSA countries, representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Foundation for Dermatology (IFD) (a committee of the International League of Dermatological Societies, ILDS www.ilds.org), the Fondation pour la Dermatite Atopique, as well as specialists in telemedicine, artificial intelligence and therapeutic patient education (TPE).

RESULTS

AD is one of the most prevalent chronic inflammatory skin diseases in SSA. Besides neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with a dermatological presentation, AD requires closer attention from the WHO and national Departments of Health.

CONCLUSIONS

A roadmap has been defined with top priorities such as access to essential medicines and devices for AD care, in particular emollients, better education of primary healthcare workers for adequate triage (e.g. better educational materials for skin diseases in pigmented skin generally and AD in particular, especially targeted to Africa), involvement of traditional healers and to a certain extent also patient education, bearing in mind the barriers to effective healthcare faced in SSA countries such as travel distances to health facilities, limited resources and the lack of dermatological expertise. In addition, several initiatives concerning AD research in SSA were discussed and should be implemented in close collaboration with the WHO and assessed at follow-up meetings, in particular, at the next ISAD meeting in Seoul, South Korea and African Society of Dermatology and Venereology (ASDV) meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, both in 2020.

Sulfamate in environmental waters

Although sulfamate (the anion of sulfamic acid) has been in use for decades in various industrial and other applications, there is no previously published information about its occurrence and fate in environmental waters. In this study sulfamate was widely detected in environmental waters in Ontario, Canada, ranging up to 128,000ng/L. It was always detected (>100ng/L) in bulk precipitation samples and streams, it was usually detected in samples of lake water, and often detected in groundwater. Spatial and temporal variations suggest that both widespread atmospheric deposition and localized land-based anthropogenic sources of sulfamate may be important. Lower concentrations or non-detections of sulfamate in waters that had relatively low dissolved oxygen (e.g. some groundwaters) suggest that sulfamate may be degraded in the environment under suboxic or anoxic conditions. Given our findings of a wide distribution of sulfamate in environmental waters, including precipitation, it is not likely to be very useful as a wastewater tracer.

Estimating cumulative wastewater treatment plant discharge influences on acesulfame and Escherichia coli in a highly impacted watershed with a fully-integrated modelling approach

Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharge is often considered a principal source of surface water contamination. In this study, a three-dimensional fully-integrated groundwater-surface water model was used to simulate the transport characteristics and cumulative loading of an artificial sweetener (acesulfame) and fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli) from WWTPs within a 6800 km² mixed-use, highly impacted watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model, which employed 3.5 × 10⁶ computational nodes and 15 layers, facilitated a comprehensive assessment of groundwater-surface water interactions under high and low flow conditions; processes typically not accounted for in WWTP cumulative effects models. Simulations demonstrate that the model had significant capacity in reproducing the average and transient multi-year groundwater and surface water flow conditions in the watershed. As a proxy human-specific conservative tracer, acesulfame was useful for model validation and to help inform the representation of watershed-scale transport processes. Using a uniform WWTP acesulfame loading rate of 7.14 mg person^-1 day^-1, the general spatial trends and magnitudes of the acesulfame concentration profile along the main river reach within the watershed were reproduced; however, model performance was improved by tuning individual WWTP loading rates. Although instream dilution and groundwater-surface water interactions were strongly dependent on flow conditions, the main reach primarily consisted of groundwater discharge zones. For this reason, hydrodynamic dispersion in the hyporheic zone is shown as the predominant mechanism driving acesulfame into near-stream shallow groundwater, while under high flow conditions, the simulations demonstrate the potential for advective flushing of the shallow groundwater. Regarding the cumulative impact of the WWTPs on E. coli concentrations in the surface flow system, simulated transient E. coli levels downstream of WWTPs in the watershed were significantly lower than observed values, thus highlighting the potential importance of other sources of E. coli in the watershed.

Randomised clinical trial: efficacy, safety and dosage of adjunctive allopurinol in azathioprine/mercaptopurine nonresponders (AAA Study)

BACKGROUND

Thiopurine hypermethylation towards 6-methylmercaptopurine (6MMP) instead of 6-thioguanine nucleotides (6TGN) is associated with inefficacy in patients with IBD. Allopurinol reverses such hypermethylation.

AIMS

To prospectively determine efficacy of allopurinol-thiopurine combination and to compare 2 doses of allopurinol.

DESIGN

In a multicentre, double-blind trial, patients with clinically active or steroid-dependent IBD and thiopurine shunting were randomised to 50 or 100 mg/d allopurinol and 25% of their screening thiopurine dose, which was subsequently optimised, aiming for 6TGN of 260-500 pmol/8x10⁸ RBCs. The primary endpoint was steroid-free clinical remission at 24 weeks.

RESULTS

Of 73 patients, 39 (53% [95% CI 42-65]) achieved steroid-free remission, (54% with 50 mg/d and 53% with 100 mg/d). 81% were able to discontinue steroids. Therapeutic 6TGN levels were achieved in both groups. Final thiopurine doses were lower with 100 mg/d allopurinol (P < 0.005). 6MMP: 6TGN ratio decreased from mean 64 to 4 (P < 0.001), being higher with 50 mg/d (6 ± 1.83) than for 100 mg/d ([1 ± 0.16], P = 0.003). Three patients on 50 mg/d failed to sustain low ratios at 24 weeks. Toxicity was minimal; three patients on 50 mg/d allopurinol developed transient leukopenia. Alanine aminotransferase concentrations decreased (P < 0.001) similarly in both arms. Faecal calprotectin levels at study end were lower in patients who achieved the primary endpoint (median 171 [85-541] vs 821[110-5892] ug/g, P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Low-dose allopurinol-thiopurine combination safely reverses shunting and optimises 6TGN with associated improvement in disease activity. 100 mg/d allopurinol is preferable due to greater metabolite profile stability and lower thiopurine dose without additional toxicity.

Altered walking strategy and increased unsteadiness in participants with impaired glucose tolerance and Type 2 diabetes relates to small-fibre neuropathy but not vitamin D deficiency

AIMS

To investigate alterations in walking strategy and dynamic sway (unsteadiness) in people with impaired glucose tolerance and people with Type 2 diabetes in relation to severity of neuropathy and vitamin D levels.

METHODS

A total of 20 people with Type 2 diabetes, 20 people with impaired glucose tolerance and 20 people without either Type 2 diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance (control group) underwent gait analysis using a motion analysis system and force platforms, and detailed assessment of neuropathy and serum 25 hydroxy-vitamin D levels.

RESULTS

Ankle strength (P = 0.01) and power (P = 0.003) during walking and walking speed (P = 0.008) were preserved in participants with impaired glucose tolerance but significantly lower in participants with Type 2 diabetes compared with control participants; however, step width (P = 0.005) and dynamic medio-lateral sway (P = 0.007) were significantly higher and posterior maximal movement (P = 0.000) was lower in participants with impaired glucose tolerance, but preserved in those with Type 2 diabetes compared with the control group. Dynamic medio-lateral sway correlated with corneal nerve fibre length (P = 0.001) and corneal nerve branch density (P = 0.001), but not with vibration perception threshold (P = 0.19). Serum 25 hydroxy-vitamin D levels did not differ significantly among the groups (P = 0.10) and did not correlate with any walking variables or measures of dynamic sway.

CONCLUSIONS

Early abnormalities in walking strategy and dynamic sway were evident in participants with impaired glucose tolerance, whilst there was a reduction in ankle strength, power and walking speed in participants with Type 2 diabetes. Unsteadiness correlated with small-, but not large-fibre neuropathy and there was no relationship between vitamin D levels and walking variables.

Introductory anatomy and physiology in an undergraduate nursing curriculum

Using an educational data mining approach, first-year academic achievement of undergraduate nursing students, which included two compulsory courses in introductory human anatomy and physiology, was compared with achievement in a final semester course that transitioned students into the workplace. We hypothesized that students could be grouped according to their first-year academic achievement using a two-step cluster analysis method and that grades achieved in the human anatomy and physiology courses would be strong predictors of overall achievement. One cohort that graduated in 2014 (n = 105) and one that graduated in 2015 (n = 94) were analyzed separately, and for both cohorts, two groups were identified, these being "high achievers" (HIGH) and "low achievers" (LOW). Consistently, the anatomy and physiology courses were the strongest predictors of group assignment, such that a good grade in these was much more likely to put a student into a high-achieving group. Students in the HIGH groups also scored higher in the Transition to Nursing course when compared with students in the LOW groups. The higher predictor importance of the anatomy and physiology courses suggested that if a first-year grade-point average was calculated for students, an increased weighting should be attributed to these courses. Identifying high-achieving students based on first-year academic scores may be a useful method to predict future academic performance.

Vulnerability to intimate partner violence and poor mental health in the first 4-year postpartum among mothers reporting childhood abuse: an Australian pregnancy cohort study

The purpose of this study was to investigate intergenerational patterns of abuse and trauma and the health consequences for women in the early childbearing years. A prospective pregnancy cohort of 1507 nulliparous women (≦24 weeks gestation) were recruited in Melbourne, Australia, 2003-2005. Follow-up was scheduled in late pregnancy, 3-, 6- and 12-month and 4-year postpartum. Childhood abuse was retrospectively reported at 4-year postpartum using the Child Maltreatment History Self Report. Intimate partner violence (IPV) was assessed at 1- and 4-year postpartum with the Composite Abuse Scale. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed in all follow-ups using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between childhood abuse, maternal mental health and IPV. Childhood abuse was reported by 41.1 % of women. In the 4 years after having their first child, 28.2 % of women reported IPV, 25.2 % depression and 31.6 % anxiety. Childhood abuse was associated with odds of depression or anxiety 1.5-2.6 times greater and 1.8-3.2 times greater for IPV. Childhood physical abuse remained significantly associated with depression and anxiety in pregnancy and postpartum after adjusting for IPV and stressful life events, while sexual abuse remained significantly associated only with anxiety. Women who begin childbearing with a history of childhood abuse are more vulnerable to IPV and poor mental health. All health care services and agencies in contact with children, young people and families should have adequate training to identify trauma associated with abuse and IPV and provide first line supportive care and referral.

Use of an Artificial Sweetener to Identify Sources of Groundwater Nitrate Contamination

The artificial sweetener acesulfame (ACE) is a potentially useful tracer of waste water contamination in groundwater. In this study, ACE concentrations were measured in waste water and impacted groundwater at 12 septic system sites in Ontario, Canada. All samples of septic tank effluent (n = 37) had ACE >6 µg/L, all samples of groundwater from the proximal plume zones (n = 93) had ACE >1 µg/L and, almost all samples from the distal plume zones had ACE >2 µg/L. Mean mass ratios of total inorganic nitrogen/ACE at the 12 sites ranged from 680 to 3500 for the tank and proximal plume samples. At five sites, decreasing ratio values in the distal zones indicated nitrogen attenuation. These ratios were applied to three aquifers in Canada that are nitrate-stressed and an urban stream where septic systems are present nearby to estimate the amount of waste water nitrate contamination. At the three aquifer locations that are agricultural, low ACE values (<0.02-0.15 µg/L) indicated that waste water contributed <15% of the nitrate in most samples. In groundwater discharging to the urban stream, much higher ACE values (0.2-11 µg/L) indicated that waste water was the likely source of >50% of the nitrate in most samples. This study confirms that ACE is a powerful tracer and demonstrates its use as a diagnostic tool for establishing whether waste water is a significant contributor to groundwater contamination or not.

People with diabetic peripheral neuropathy display a decreased stepping accuracy during walking: potential implications for risk of tripping

AIM

To examine the stepping accuracy of people with diabetes and diabetic peripheral neuropathy.

METHODS

Fourteen patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), 12 patients with diabetes but no neuropathy (D) and 10 healthy non-diabetic control participants (C). Accuracy of stepping was measured whilst the participants walked along a walkway consisting of 18 stepping targets. Preliminary data on visual gaze characteristics were also captured in a subset of participants (diabetic peripheral neuropathy group: n = 4; diabetes-alone group: n = 4; and control group: n = 4) during the same task.

RESULTS

Patients in the diabetic peripheral neuropathy group, and patients in the diabetes-alone group were significantly less accurate at stepping on targets than were control subjects (P < 0.05). Preliminary visual gaze analysis identified that patients diabetic peripheral neuropathy were slower to look between targets, resulting in less time being spent looking at a target before foot-target contact.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired motor control is theorized to be a major factor underlying the changes in stepping accuracy, and potentially altered visual gaze behaviour may also play a role. Reduced stepping accuracy may indicate a decreased ability to control the placement of the lower limbs, leading to patients with neuropathy potentially being less able to avoid observed obstacles during walking.

Resistance exercise training increases lower limb speed of strength generation during stair ascent and descent in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy

AIM

To examine the effects of a 16-week resistance exercise training intervention on the speed of ankle and knee strength generation during stair ascent and descent, in people with neuropathy.

METHODS

A total of 43 people: nine with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, 13 with diabetes but no neuropathy and 21 healthy control subjects ascended and descended a custom-built staircase. The speed at which ankle and knee strength were generated, and muscle activation patterns of the ankle and knee extensor muscles were analysed before and after a 16-week intervention period.

RESULTS

Ankle and knee strength generation during both stair ascent and descent were significantly higher after the intervention than before the intervention in the people with diabetes who undertook the resistance exercise intervention (P < 0.05). Although muscle activations were altered by the intervention, there were no observable patterns that underpinned the observed changes.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased speed of ankle and knee strength generation observed after the intervention would be expected to improve stability during the crucial weight acceptance phase of stair ascent and descent, and ultimately contribute towards reducing the risk of falling. Improvements in muscle strength as a result of the resistance exercise training intervention are likely to be the most influential factor for increasing the speed of strength generation. It is recommended that these exercises could be incorporated into a multi-faceted exercise programme to improve safety in people with diabetes and neuropathy.

Degradation of sucralose in groundwater and implications for age dating contaminated groundwater

The artificial sweetener sucralose has been in use in Canada and the US since about 2000 and in the EU since 2003, and is now ubiquitous in sanitary wastewater in many parts of the world. It persists during sewage treatment and in surface water environments and as such, has been suggested as a powerful tracer of wastewater. In this study, longer-term persistence of sucralose was examined in groundwater by undertaking a series of three sampling snapshots of a well constrained wastewater plume in Canada (Long Point septic system) over a 6-year period from 2008 to 2014. A shrinking sucralose plume in 2014, compared to earlier sampling, during this period when sucralose use was likely increasing, provides clear evidence of degradation. However, depletion of sucralose from a mean of 40 μg/L in the proximal plume zone, occurred at a relatively slow rate over a period of several months to several years. Furthermore, examination of septic tank effluent and impacted groundwater at six other sites in Canada, revealed that sucralose was present in all samples of septic tank effluent (6-98 μg/L, n = 32) and in all groundwater samples (0.7-77 μg/L, n = 64). Even though sucralose degradation is noted in the Long Point plume, its ubiquitous presence in the groundwater plumes at all seven sites implies a relatively slow rate of decay in many groundwater septic plume environments. Thus, sucralose has the potential to be used as an indicator of 'recent' wastewater contamination. The presence of sucralose identifies groundwater that was recharged after 2000 in Canada and the US and after 2003 in the EU and many Asian countries.

Tracking undergraduate student achievement in a first-year physiology course using a cluster analysis approach

A cluster analysis data classification technique was used on assessment scores from 157 undergraduate nursing students who passed 2 successive compulsory courses in human anatomy and physiology. Student scores in five summative assessment tasks, taken in each of the courses, were used as inputs for a cluster analysis procedure. We aimed to group students into high-achieving (HA) and low-achieving (LA) clusters and to determine the ability of each summative assessment task to discriminate between HA and LA students. The two clusters identified in each semester were described as HA (n = 42) and LA (n = 115) in semester 1 (HA1 and LA1, respectively) and HA (n = 91) and LA (n = 42) in semester 2 (HA2 and LA2, respectively). In both semesters, HA and LA means for all inputs were different (all P < 0.001). Nineteen students moved from the HA1 group into the LA2 group, whereas 68 students moved from the LA1 group into the HA2 group. The overall order of importance of inputs that determined group membership was different in semester 1 compared with semester 2; in addition, the within-cluster order of importance in LA groups was different compared with HA groups. This method of analysis may 1) identify students who need extra instruction, 2) identify which assessment is more effective in discriminating between HA and LA students, and 3) provide quantitative evidence to track student achievement.

Identification of translational dermatology research priorities in the U.K.: results of an electronic Delphi exercise

BACKGROUND

Translational research is the direct application of basic and applied research to patient care. It is estimated that there are at least 2000 different skin diseases; thus, there are considerable challenges in seeking to undertake research on each of these disorders.

OBJECTIVES

This electronic Delphi (e-Delphi) exercise was conducted in order to generate a list of translational dermatology research questions that are regarded as a priority for further investigations.

METHODS

During the first phase of the e-Delphi exercise, 228 research questions were generated by an expert panel that included clinical academic dermatologists, clinical dermatologists, nonclinical scientists, dermatology trainees and representatives from patient support groups.

RESULTS

Following completion of the second and third phases, 40 questions on inflammatory skin disease, 20 questions on structural skin disorders/genodermatoses, 37 questions on skin cancer and eight miscellaneous questions were designated as priority translational dermatology research questions (PRQs). In addition to PRQs on a variety of disease areas (including multiple PRQs on psoriasis, eczema, squamous cell carcinoma and melanoma), there were a number of cross-cutting themes that identified a need to investigate mechanisms/pathogenesis of disease and the necessity to improve treatments for patients with skin disease.

CONCLUSIONS

It is predicted that this list of PRQs will help to provide a strategic direction for translational dermatology research in the U.K. and that addressing this list of questions will ultimately provide clinical benefit for substantial numbers of patients with skin disorders.

Efficacy of thiopurines and adalimumab in preventing Crohn's disease recurrence in high-risk patients - a POCER study analysis

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease recurs in the majority of patients after intestinal resection.

AIM

To compare the relative efficacy of thiopurines and anti-TNF therapy in patients at high risk of disease recurrence.

METHODS

As part of a larger study comparing post-operative management strategies, patients at high risk of recurrence (smoker, perforating disease, ≥2nd operation) were treated after resection of all macroscopic disease with 3 months metronidazole together with either azathioprine 2 mg/kg/day or mercaptopurine 1.5 mg/kg/day. Thiopurine-intolerant patients received adalimumab induction then 40 mg fortnightly. Patients underwent colonoscopy at 6 months with endoscopic recurrence assessed blind to treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 101 patients [50% male; median (IQR) age 36 (25-46) years] were included. There were no differences in disease history between thiopurine- and adalimumab-treated patients. Fifteen patients withdrew prior to 6 months, five due to symptom recurrence (of whom four were colonoscoped). Endoscopic recurrence (Rutgeerts score i2-i4) occurred in 33 of 73 (45%) thiopurine vs. 6 of 28 (21%) adalimumab-treated patients [intention-to-treat (ITT); P = 0.028] or 24 of 62 (39%) vs. 3 of 24 (13%) respectively [per-protocol analysis (PPA); P = 0.020]. Complete mucosal endoscopic normality (Rutgeerts i0) occurred in 17/73 (23%) vs. 15/28 (54%) (ITT; P = 0.003) and in 27% vs. 63% (PPA; P = 0.002). The most advanced disease (Rutgeerts i3 and i4) occurred in 8% vs. 4% (thiopurine vs. adalimumab).

CONCLUSIONS

In Crohn's disease patients at high risk of post-operative recurrence adalimumab is superior to thiopurines in preventing early disease recurrence.

Sources of aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) in urban and rural catchments in Ontario, Canada: Glyphosate or phosphonates in wastewater?

Correlation analysis suggests that occurrences of AMPA in streams of southern Ontario are linked mainly to glyphosate in both urban and rural settings, rather than to wastewater sources, as some previous studies have suggested. For this analysis the artificial sweetener acesulfame was analyzed as a wastewater indicator in surface water samples collected from urban and rural settings in southern Ontario, Canada. This interpretation is supported by the concurrence of seasonal fluctuations of glyphosate and AMPA concentrations. Herbicide applications in larger urban centres and along major transportation corridors appear to be important sources of glyphosate and AMPA in surface water, in addition to uses of this herbicide in rural and mixed use areas. Fluctuations in concentrations of acesulfame and glyphosate residues were found to be related to hydrologic events.

Dyspareunia and childbirth: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between mode of delivery, perineal trauma and dyspareunia.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Six maternity hospitals in Melbourne, Australia.

SAMPLE

A total of 1507 nulliparous women recruited in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy.

METHOD

Data from baseline and postnatal questionnaires (3, 6, 12 and 18 months) were analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Study-designed self-report measure of dyspareunia at 18 months postpartum.

RESULTS

In all, 1244/1507 (83%) women completed the baseline and all four postpartum questionnaires; 1211/1237 (98%) had resumed vaginal intercourse by 18 months postpartum, with 289/1211 (24%) women reporting dyspareunia. Compared with women who had a spontaneous vaginal delivery with an intact perineum or unsutured tear, women who had an emergency caesarean section (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.41, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.4-4.0; P = 0.001), vacuum extraction (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.3-4.1; P = 0.005) or elective caesarean section (aOR 1.71, 95% CI 0.9-3.2; P = 0.087) had increased odds of reporting dyspareunia at 18 months postpartum, adjusting for maternal age and other potential confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Obstetric intervention is associated with persisting dyspareunia. Greater recognition and increased understanding of the roles of mode of delivery and perineal trauma in contributing to postpartum maternal morbidities, and ways to prevent postpartum dyspareunia where possible, are warranted.

Altered glycosylation in donor mice causes rejection of strain-matched skin and heart grafts

Differential protein glycosylation in the donor and recipient can have profound consequences for transplanted organs, as evident in ABO-incompatible transplantation and xenotransplantation. In this study, we investigated the impact of altered fucosylation on graft acceptance by using donor mice overexpressing human α1,2-fucosyltransferase (HTF). Skin and heart grafts from HTF transgenic mice were rapidly rejected by otherwise completely matched recipients (median survival times 16 and 14 days, respectively). HTF skin transplanted onto mice lacking T and B cells induced an natural killer cell-mediated innate rejection crisis that affected 50-95% of the graft at 10-20 days. However, in the absence of adaptive immunity, the residual graft recovered and survived long-term (>100 days). Experiments using "parked" grafts or MHC class II-deficient recipients suggested that indirect rather than direct antigen presentation plays a role in HTF skin graft rejection, although the putative antigen(s) was not identified. We conclude that altered glycosylation patterns on donor tissue can trigger a powerful rejection response comprising both innate and adaptive components. This has potential implications for allotransplantation, in light of increasing recognition of the variability of the human glycome, and for xenotransplantation, where carbohydrate remodeling has been a lynchpin of donor genetic modification.

Residues of the herbicide glyphosate in riparian groundwater in urban catchments

The herbicide glyphosate and its putative metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) have been found in urban streams, but limited information is available on their presence in urban riparian groundwater. Information is also lacking regarding the source of AMPA in these urban settings (glyphosate metabolite or wastewater), and whether, if present, glyphosate residues in urban riparian groundwater contribute significantly to urban streams. Glyphosate and AMPA were detected in shallow riparian groundwater at 4 of 5 stream sites in urban catchments in Canada and each were found in approximately 1 in 10 of the samples overall. Frequency of observations of glyphosate and AMPA varied substantially between sites, from no observations in a National Park near the Town of Jasper Alberta, to observations of both glyphosate and AMPA in more than half of the samples along two short reaches of streams in Burlington, Ontario. In these two catchments, AMPA was correlated with glyphosate, rather than the artificial sweetener acesulfame, suggesting that the AMPA is derived mainly from glyphosate degradation rather than from wastewater sources. Land use, localized dosage history, depth below ground and other factors likely control the occurrence of detectable glyphosate residues in groundwater.

Two orthodenticle-related genes in the short-germ beetle Tribolium castaneum

To investigate the molecular basis of head evolution, we searched for genes related to the Drosophila orthodenticle (otd) homeobox gene in the short-germ beetle Tribolium castaneum. Unexpectedly, we found that there are two otd-related genes in Tribolium, with predicted homeodomains highly similar to that of the single Drosophila gene. One of the two genes (Tc otd-1) is more related in both amino acid sequence and expression pattern to fruitfly otd. Tc otd-1 is expressed in a broad anterior stripe in the blastoderm embryo, suggesting a role in early head segmentation similar to that of the Drosophila gene. The second gene (Tc otd-2) is more similar in sequence to the otd-related genes isolated from different vertebrate species (the Otx gene family). Tc otd-2 is not transcribed in the blastoderm, but is expressed later in more limited subsets of cells in the anterior brain. Both Tribolium genes and the Drosophila gene are, unlike the vertebrate genes, also expressed at the developing ventral midline of the embryo. Our results are consistent with the idea that an otd/Otx gene specified anterior head structures in the last ancestor common to arthropods and vertebrates. Within the arthropod lineage, we propose that this gene acquired a function in cells at the developing midline prior to the duplication that generated the two Tribolium genes.

An artificial sweetener and pharmaceutical compounds as co-tracers of urban wastewater in groundwater

Groundwater in urban areas can be affected by numerous wastewater sources. Distinguishing these sources can facilitate better management of urban water resources and wastewater, and protection of urban aquatic environments. A single wastewater tracer, even if ideal (i.e. low background levels, non-reactive, low detection limits, etc.), would be unable to accomplish this task. Here, we investigated the potential advantages of using a suite of anthropogenic chemicals as co-tracers to distinguish wastewater sources that contribute to groundwater contamination at two urban sites. We considered both relatively ubiquitous and non-ubiquitous tracers in wastewater. At the Jasper (Alberta, Canada) site, concentrations of an artificial sweetener, two pharmaceutical compounds, and a degradate of nicotine in groundwater were strongly correlated as co-tracers. This evidence, along with the similar spatial distributions of these co-tracers could be used to delineate and distinguish a single municipal wastewater plume. At the Barrie (Ontario, Canada) site, there was moderate to strong correlation of the wastewater co-tracers, but local differences in their distributions and in the ratios of their concentrations could be used to infer that mixtures of two or more domestic septic plumes were present in the groundwater at this site. This study demonstrates the benefit of applying a suite of tracers to urban groundwater affected by wastewater contamination. This approach should be applicable at other urban sites.

Does method of birth make a difference to when women resume sex after childbirth?

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the timing of resumption of vaginal sex and assess associations with method of birth, perineal trauma and other obstetric and social factors.

DESIGN

Prospective pregnancy cohort study of nulliparous women.

SETTING

Melbourne, Australia.

SAMPLE

A total of 1507 nulliparous women recruited in early pregnancy (≤24 weeks).

METHOD

Women were recruited from six public hospitals. Data from hospital records and self-administered questionnaires at recruitment and 3, 6 and 12 months postpartum were analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Resumption of vaginal sex.

RESULTS

Sexual activity was resumed earlier than vaginal sex, with 53% resuming sexual activity by 6 weeks postpartum, and 41% attempting vaginal sex. By 8 weeks a majority of women had attempted vaginal sex (65%), increasing to 78% by 12 weeks, and 94% by 6 months. Compared with women who had a spontaneous vaginal birth with an intact perineum, women who had a spontaneous vaginal birth with an episiotomy (adjusted odds ratio 3.43, 95% confidence interval 1.9-6.2) or sutured perineal tear (adjusted odds ratio 3.18, 95% confidence interval 2.1-4.9) were more likely not to have resumed vaginal sex by 6 weeks postpartum. Similarly, women who had an assisted vaginal birth or caesarean section had raised odds of delaying resumption of sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Most women having a first birth do not resume vaginal sex until later than 6 weeks postpartum. Women who have an operative vaginal birth, caesarean section or perineal tear or episiotomy appear to delay longer.

The onset, recurrence and associated obstetric risk factors for urinary incontinence in the first 18 months after a first birth: an Australian nulliparous cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the contribution of obstetric risk factors to persistent urinary incontinence (UI) between 4 and 18 months postpartum.

DESIGN

Prospective pregnancy cohort.

SETTING

Six metropolitan public hospitals in Victoria, Australia.

SAMPLE

A total of 1507 nulliparous women recruited to the Maternal Health Study in early pregnancy (≤24 weeks of gestation).

METHODS

Data from hospital records and self-administered questionnaires/telephone interviews at ≤24 and 30-32 weeks of gestation and at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 18 months postpartum analysed using logistic regression.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Persistent UI 4-18 months postpartum in women continent before pregnancy.

RESULTS

Of the women who were continent before pregnancy, 44% reported UI 4-18 months postpartum, and 25% reported persistent UI (symptoms at multiple follow ups). Compared with spontaneous vaginal birth, women who had a caesarean before labour (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.4, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.2-0.9), in first-stage labour (aOR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.6) or in second-stage labour (aOR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-1.0) were less likely to report persistent UI 4-18 months postpartum. Prolonged second-stage labour in women who had an operative vaginal birth was associated with increased likelihood of UI (aOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.6). Compared with women who were continent in pregnancy, women reporting UI in pregnancy had a seven-fold increase in odds of persistent UI (aOR 7.4, 95% CI 5.1-10.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent UI is common after childbirth and is more likely following prolonged labour in combination with operative vaginal birth. The majority of women reporting persistent UI at 4-18 months postpartum also experienced symptoms in pregnancy.

Wide spectrum of filaggrin-null mutations in atopic dermatitis highlights differences between Singaporean Chinese and European populations

BACKGROUND

Null mutations in the filaggrin gene (FLG) cause ichthyosis vulgaris (IV) and predispose to atopic dermatitis (AD). Cohort studies in Europe and Japan have reported an FLG mutation carrier frequency of between 14% and 56%, but the prevalent European FLG mutations are rare or absent in Chinese patients with IV and AD.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate further the spectrum of FLG-null mutations in Chinese patients and to compare it with that in other populations.

METHODS

We conducted comprehensive FLG genetic analysis in a discovery cohort of 92 Singaporean Chinese individuals with IV and/or moderate-to-severe AD. All detected FLG mutations were then screened in a cohort of 425 patients with AD and 440 normal controls. Results In total, 22 FLG-null mutations, of which 14 are novel, were identified in this study; the combined null FLG genotype of 17 mutations detected in cases and controls showed strong association with AD [Fisher's exact test; P = 5·3 × 10⁻⁹; odds ratio (OR) 3·3], palmar hyperlinearity (Fisher's exact test; P = 9·0 × 10⁻¹⁵; OR 5·8), keratosis pilaris (Fisher's exact test; P = 0·001; OR 4·7) and with increased severity of AD (permutation test; P = 0·0063).

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasizes the wider genetic landscape of FLG-null mutations in Asia that is slowly emerging.

Low urinary iodine postpartum is associated with hypothyroid postpartum thyroid dysfunction and predicts long-term hypothyroidism

BACKGROUND

Postpartum thyroid dysfunction (PPTD) is characterized by an early hyperthyroid phase followed, with peak prevalence at 6 months, by a hypothyroid phase which carries a risk of long-term hypothyroidism. Iodine has a major effect on thyroid function. Western Australia has previously been shown to be iodine replete.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the iodine status of women with and without PPTD and the relationship of iodine status postpartum with long-term hypothyroidism.

DESIGN

Case-control with follow-up.

PATIENTS

A total of 149 women at 6 months postpartum (74 PPTD, 75 controls) with 98 (46 PPTD, 52 controls) followed up at 12 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Urinary iodine concentration (UIC) and thyroid function at 6 months postpartum; thyroid function at 12-year follow-up.

RESULTS

At 6 months postpartum, median UIC (quartiles) for observed TSH ranges were: for TSH < 0·4 mU/l 130·0 μg/l (82·0, 170·0); for TSH 0·4-4·0 mU/l 123·0 μg/l (80·5, 168·0); for TSH > 4·0 mU/l 85·0 μg/l (40·0, 141·5), P = 0·018. The odds ratio (OR) of hypothyroid PPTD with each unit of decreasing log iodine was 2·54, (95%CI: 1·47, 4·35), and with UIC < 50 μg/l, OR 4·22, (95%CI: 1·54, 11·55). In the long term, decreased log UIC significantly predicted hypothyroidism at 12-year follow-up (P = 0·002); as did UIC < 100 μg/l (P = 0·03) and UIC < 50 μg/l (P = 0·02). The association was independent of antibody status.

CONCLUSION

Low UIC measured at 6 months postpartum is associated with hypothyroid PPTD and independently predicts long-term hypothyroidism. We believe that it results from more severe preceding destructive thyroiditis, with discharge of thyroidal iodine, and thereby predicts a greater risk of long-term hypothyroidism.

Effects of prolonged second stage, method of birth, timing of caesarean section and other obstetric risk factors on postnatal urinary incontinence: an Australian nulliparous cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the contribution of prolonged labour, method of birth, timing of caesarean section and other obstetric risk factors to postpartum urinary incontinence.

DESIGN

Prospective pregnancy cohort.

SETTING

Six metropolitan public hospitals in Victoria, Australia.

SAMPLE

A total of 1507 nulliparous women recruited to the maternal health study in early pregnancy (≤24 weeks).

METHOD

Data from hospital medical records and self-administered questionnaires/telephone interviews at ≤24 and 30-32 weeks of gestation and 3 months postpartum analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Urinary incontinence 3 months postpartum in women continent before the index pregnancy.

RESULTS

Of the women continent before pregnancy, 26% reported new incontinence at 3 months postpartum. Compared with women who had a spontaneous vaginal birth, women who had a caesarean section before labour (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5) or in the first stage of labour (adjusted OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.4) were less likely to be incontinent 3 months postpartum. Adjusted OR for incontinence after caesarean section in the second stage of labour compared with spontaneous vaginal birth was 0.5 (95% CI 0.2-1.0). Prolonged second stage labour was associated with increased likelihood of postpartum incontinence in women who had a spontaneous vaginal birth (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.4) or operative vaginal birth (adjusted OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.8).

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to pregnancy itself, physiological changes associated with the second stage of labour appear to play a role in postpartum urinary incontinence.

The effect of fenofibrate on HDL cholesterol and HDL particle concentration in postmenopausal women on tibolone therapy

BACKGROUND

Low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and particle concentration are risk factors for coronary heart disease in women. Tibolone lowers HDL cholesterol and HDL particle concentration, an effect that could be reversed by the peroxisome proliferator-activator receptor-α agonist fenofibrate.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effects of fenofibrate on plasma HDL particles in postmenopausal women taking tibolone therapy.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized crossover study conducted in a women's health clinic. Fourteen postmenopausal women taking tibolone 2.5 mg daily for menopausal symptoms were randomized to either fenofibrate 160 mg daily or no treatment for 8 weeks, followed by a 3-week wash-out for fenofibrate and then crossed over to alternate therapy for another 8 weeks. The main outcome measure was changes in plasma HDL cholesterol concentration, apoA-I and apoA-II, LpA-I and LpA-I-A-II.

RESULTS

After 8 weeks of fenofibrate therapy, there was no change in HDL cholesterol, 1.13 ± 0.06 v 1.16 ± 0.06 mmol/l (P = 0.47) or apoA-I, 1.19 ± 0.05 v 1.20 ± 0.05 g/l (P = 0.23). LpA-I fell significantly 0.35 ± 0.03 v 0.29 ± 0.02 (P = 0.02) but there was a rise in apoA-II, 0.35 ± 0.01 v 0.39 ± 0.01 g/l (P = 0.01). There was a significant fall in total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apoB.

CONCLUSION

In women taking tibolone, fenofibrate increases plasma apoA-II concentration and effects a redistribution of HDL subfractions but does not correct tibolone-induced changes in HDL cholesterol or HDL particle concentration. The mechanism and significance of this require further investigation.

Postpartum thyroid dysfunction and the long-term risk of hypothyroidism: results from a 12-year follow-up study of women with and without postpartum thyroid dysfunction

BACKGROUND

The long-term risk of hypothyroidism following postpartum thyroid dysfunction (PPTD) is uncertain. Most previous studies have been small, short-term or have lacked a control group.

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain the long-term risk of hypothyroidism in women following PPTD. Design and participants A 12-year longitudinal study of 409 women (including 71 with PPTD) who previously participated in a PPTD prevalence study.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome measure was hypothyroidism (defined as TSH greater than 4 mU/l or on thyroxine replacement) at follow-up. Outcomes in women with and without PPTD were compared by logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off for baseline TSH as a predictor of hypothyroidism in the cohort.

RESULTS

At follow-up, hypothyroidism was present in 27 of 71 women who had PPTD at baseline (38%) and 14 of 338 women without PPTD (4%). From multivariate analysis, odds ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for hypothyroidism were - 4.8 (1.6, 14.1) for PPTD; 8.2 (2.8, 24.6) for positive thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb); 9.7 (2.6, 37.0) for the hypothyroid phase of PPTD and 51.4 (19.2, 137.5) for hypothyroid PPTD with positive TPOAb. A baseline TSH above 2.6 mU/l was the optimal cut-off for predicting hypothyroidism (sensitivity 76%, specificity 86%).

CONCLUSIONS

PPTD is a strong predictor of hypothyroidism in the long-term. Women who present with postpartum hypothyroidism or have positive TPOAb are at particularly high risk, suggesting that close long-term follow-up is advisable if thyroxine replacement is not instituted at an early stage.

Filaggrin loss-of-function variants are associated with atopic comorbidity in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND

Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has a high prevalence of coexistent atopy. Filaggrin (FLG) loss-of-function variants (null-alleles) are associated with eczema and asthma in association with eczema. The aim was to assess the contribution of FLG null-alleles to pediatric IBD susceptibility and to coexistent atopy (eczema, asthma, allergic rhinitis, or food allergy).

METHODS

FLG variants (R501X and 2282del4) were genotyped in 403 children with IBD, 683 parents, and 996 population controls.

RESULTS

In all, 11% of IBD patients carried at least 1 FLG null-allele compared to 11% of population controls (P > 0.4). Carriage of 1 or more null-alleles in patients with atopy (present in 52% of IBD patients) differed from IBD patients without atopy (14% versus 6%, P = 0.01; odds ratio [OR] 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-5.1). The effect of FLG null-alleles was strongest for eczema (19% versus 7%, P = 0.0003; OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.7-6.6) and food allergy (28% versus 8%, P = 0.0001; OR 4.5, 95% CI 2.0-10.0). The presence of more than 1 atopic disease tended to increase the associated OR: eczema + asthma (23% versus 7%, P = 0.001; OR 3.9, 95% CI 1.6-9.1), eczema + asthma + allergic rhinitis (29% versus 7%, P = 0.0006; OR 5.4, 95% CI 1.9-15.4) and eczema + asthma + allergic rhinitis + food allergy (45% versus 6%, P < 10(-4); OR 12.2, 95% CI 3.2-46.3). Logistic regression analysis of IBD cases confirmed the association of carriage of an FLG null-allele with atopy (P = 0.01; OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-5.1) and co-occurrence of different forms of atopy (P = 0.003; OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.5-8.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Filaggrin null-alleles have no effect on IBD susceptibility but contribute to coexistent eczema and food allergy.

Filaggrin haploinsufficiency is highly penetrant and is associated with increased severity of eczema: further delineation of the skin phenotype in a prospective epidemiological study of 792 school children

Background

Null mutations within the filaggrin gene (FLG) cause ichthyosis vulgaris and are associated with atopic eczema. However, the dermatological features of filaggrin haploinsufficiency have not been clearly defined.

Objectives

This study investigated the genotype–phenotype association between detailed skin phenotype and FLG genotype data in a population-based cohort of children.

Methods

Children (n= 792) aged 7–9 years were examined by a dermatologist. Features of ichthyosis vulgaris, atopic eczema and xerosis were recorded and eczema severity graded using the Three Item Severity score. Each child was genotyped for the six most prevalent FLG null mutations (R501X, 2282del4, R2447X, S3247X, 3702delG, 3673delC). Fisher’s exact test was used to compare genotype frequencies in phenotype groups; logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios and penetrance of the FLG null genotype and a permutation test performed to investigate eczema severity in different genotype groups.

Results

Ten children in this cohort had ichthyosis vulgaris, of whom five had mild–moderate eczema. The penetrance of FLG null mutations with respect to flexural eczema was 55·6% in individuals with two mutations, 16·3% in individuals with one mutation and 14·2% in wild-type individuals. Summating skin features known to be associated with FLG null mutations (ichthyosis, keratosis pilaris, palmar hyperlinearity and flexural eczema) showed a penetrance of 100% in children with two FLG mutations, 87·8% in children with one FLG mutation and 46·5% in wild-type individuals (P< 0·0001, Fisher exact test). FLG null mutations were associated with more severe eczema (P= 0·0042) but the mean difference was only 1–2 points in severity score. Three distinct patterns of palmar hyperlinearity were observed and these are reported for the first time.

Conclusions

Filaggrin haploinsufficiency appears to be highly penetrant when all relevant skin features are included in the analysis. FLG null mutations are associated with more severe eczema, but the effect size is small in a population setting.

Heart rate variability and ventilatory efficiency

The aims of this investigation were to identify possible associations between the resting high frequency component of heart rate variability and measures of ventilatory efficiency, determined during exercise, in a group of endurance trained athletes. V'E, V'CO2, and V'O2 were measured during incremental exercise up to the anaerobic threshold (AT) and up to volitional exhaustion (V'O2 max) in 12 subjects. Resting high frequency heart rate variability (HF(NU)), determined using spectral analysis of ECG traces, was correlated with the V'E vs. V'CO2 slope calculated from data up to the AT, where a negative linear relation between the V'E vs. V'CO2 slope and HF (NU) was recorded (R(2)=0.69). Also, resting HF (NU) was correlated with the V'E vs. V'CO (2) slope, when the data used for slope calculation included all V'E vs. V'CO2 data up to V'O2 max (R(2)=0.56). However, there was no evidence of association between the minimum V'E:V'CO (2) and resting HF(NU) (R(2)=0.08). Negative relations between V'E vs. V'CO2 slope and resting HF(NU) suggest that HF(NU) plays a role in matching blood flow in the lung to alveolar ventilation throughout the ventilatory cycle.

Indirect measures of human vagal withdrawal during head-up tilt with and without a respiratory acidosis

Human ECG records were analyzed during supine (SUP) rest and whole body 80 degrees head-up tilt (HUT), with a respiratory acidosis (5%CO(2)) and breathing room air (RA). HUT increased heart rate in both conditions (RA(SUP) 60 +/- 13 vs. RA(HUT) 79 +/- 16; 5%CO(2SUP) 63 +/- 12 vs. 5%CO(2HUT) 79 +/- 14 beats min(-1)) and decreased mean R-R interval, with no changes in the R-R interval standard deviation. When corrected for changes in frequency spectrum total power (NU), the high frequency (0.15-0.4 Hz) component (HF(NU)) of heart rate variability decreased (RA(SUP) 44.01 +/- 21.57 vs. RA(HUT) 24.05 +/- 13.09; 5%CO(2SUP) 69.23 +/- 15.37 vs. 5%CO(2HUT) 47.64 +/- 21.11) without accompanying changes in the low frequency (0.04-0.15 Hz) component (LF(NU)) (RA(SUP) 52.36 +/- 21.93 vs. RA(HUT) 66.58 +/- 19.49; 5%CO(2SUP) 22.97 +/- 11.54 vs. 5%CO(2HUT) 40.45 +/- 21.41). Positive linear relations between the tilt-induced changes (Delta) in HF(NU) and R-R interval were recorded for RA (DeltaHF(NU) = 0.0787(DeltaR-R) - 11.3, R (2) = 0.79, P < 0.05), and for 5%CO(2) (DeltaHF(NU) = 0.0334(DeltaR-R) + 1.1, R (2) = 0.82, P < 0.05). The decreased HF component suggested withdrawal of vagal activity during HUT. For both RA and 5%CO(2), the positive linear relations between DeltaHF(NU) and DeltaR-R suggested that the greater the increase in heart rate with HUT, the greater the vagal withdrawal. However, a reduced range of DeltaHF during HUT with respiratory acidosis suggested vagal withdrawal was lower with a respiratory acidosis.

Human ventilatory efficiency and respiratory sinus arrhythmia during head-up tilt

Cardiac vagal withdrawal when moving from supine to an upright posture may be independent of respiratory sinus arrhythmia. Further, ventilatory efficiency of an upright lung may improve with clustering of heart beats during inhalation. We studied healthy human subjects (n=8, 6 male) during supine rest (SUP) and 80 degrees head-up tilt (HUT). ECG and expired breath were sampled continuously to determine heart rate, mean and end-tidal (ET) fractional content (F) of O2 and CO2, tidal volume (V(T)) and breathing frequency (Bf). HUT increased heart rate (47+/-3 vs. 59+/-9 beats min(-1), p<0.01), decreased the high frequency component of heart rate variability (8.76+/- vs. 7.07+/-1.12, p<0.05), and increased the ratio of low to high frequency components in the heart rate (0.62+/-0.6 vs. 1.79+/-2.07, p<0.05). HUT did not change VT, Bf, or minute ventilation (V'E), but decreased FCO2 (4.90+/-0.48 vs. 4.56+/-0.42 %, p<0.05) and FETCO2 (6.64+/-0.24 vs. 6.30+/-0.27 %, p<0.01). HUT increased the CO2 ventilatory equivalent (24.88+/-2.50 vs. 26.74+/-2.61, p<0.01). Mean heart rate during inhalation increased with HUT (26+/-3 vs. 34+/-6 beats min-1), with no change during exhalation. Increased clustering of heart beats during inhalation independent of a decrease in HF cardiac variability may partly offset decreases in ventilatory efficiency of an upright lung.

Heritability of serum TSH, free T4 and free T3 concentrations: a study of a large UK twin cohort

OBJECTIVE

Thyroid hormone action influences many metabolic and synthetic processes, but the degree of regulation attributed to genes and environmental factors affecting normal variation remains controversial.

DESIGN

We investigated the magnitude of the genetic and environmental determination of serum concentrations of free (f) T3, fT4, TSH and the fT4 x TSH product and their variation, in a large cohort of twin pairs. Female dizygous and monozygous twins (849 and 213 pairs, respectively) from the TwinsUK registry (mean age 45.5, range 18-80 years) were studied.

RESULTS

Comparison of thyroid parameters within various groups showed no differences between smoking categories, and higher serum TSH and lower fT3 in subjects with positive thyroid antibodies. Using structural equation modelling, we estimated the heritable contribution to serum thyroid parameters (with 95% confidence intervals) to be 65% (58%-71%) for TSH, 65% (58%-71%) for the fT4 x TSH product, 39% (20%-55%) for fT4 and 23% (3%-41%) for fT3.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that genetic regulation is a particularly important determinant of TSH and the fT4 x TSH product, and is a less important determinant of fT4 and fT3 concentrations in Caucasian women. These data from a large well-characterized cohort suggest that while there is a strong heritable contribution to serum TSH, variation in fT4 and fT3 concentrations may be less explained by genetic factors and more driven by environmental effects than previously thought.