Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Unveiling the truth: is COVID-19 reimbursement in Colombia a flawed design? A cost-of-illness analysis for moderate, severe and critical infections

PURPOSE

This study examines the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian Health System, focusing on the adequacy of reimbursement rates for inpatient stays. The study, based on a cost of illness analysis, aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the reimbursement scheme and identify potential economic losses within the health system.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study protocol outlines the inclusion criteria for patients >18 years with confirmed COVID-19 infection and moderate to critical disease. Patients hospitalised between June 2020 and June 2021 for at least 24 hours were included. Exclusion criteria involved pregnant patients and those initially hospitalised for non-COVID-19.

RESULTS

The study included 781 patients contributing to 790 hospitalisations. Demographic and clinical characteristics were analysed, with critical illness being the most prevalent category (61%). The overall mortality rate was 20.3%, primarily observed in critically ill patients. In the general ward for moderate cases, the reimbursement rate saw a substantial increase from US$3237 in 2020 to US$6760 in 2021, surpassing median resource utilisation. However, for severe cases in the intermediate care unit, reimbursement rates decreased, indicating potential insufficiency in covering costs. In the intensive care unit for critical cases, despite improved reimbursement rates, median resource utilisation still exceeds the 2021 rate, suggesting financial insufficiency in reimbursement rates.

CONCLUSION

Our study underscores the inadequacies of the previous reimbursement system in addressing the varying resource utilisation and costs associated with COVID-19 inpatient care. Our analysis reveals substantial discrepancies between estimated costs and actual resource utilisation, particularly for severe and critical cases. We advocate for government flexibility in revising reimbursement baskets, supported by pilot studies to assess effectiveness. The use of real-world evidence forms a crucial basis for informed adjustments to reimbursement levels in preparation for future pandemics. This proactive approach ensures alignment between reimbursement policies and the actual costs associated.

Managed competition in Colombia: convergence of public and private insurance and delivery

The Colombian health system has made a deep transition into managed competition since a major reform in 1993. A market for insurers was created, the consumer has free choice of insurer and a national-level equalisation fund distributes revenues via a per-capita payment. Fully subsidised insurance for the poor and informal, and a comprehensive standardised benefit package for subsidised and contributory schemes (both schemes covering 98 per cent of the population), has led to a low level of out-of-pocket expenses and high financial protection, as well as to reduced gaps in equity in access. The preconditions for managed competition are largely met, but improving health care providers' organisation towards integrated care, to enable them to deliver more value, is a necessary step to achieve the expected results of managed competition in terms of efficiency and quality. Although the current system is likely to be reformed in the coming months, the nature and extent of those reforms are not defined yet, so our analysis is based on the current system.

Cost Analysis of High-Flow Oxygen Therapy Compared with Conventional Oxygen Therapy in Severe COVID-19 in Colombia: Data from a Randomized Clinical Trial

Background

A randomized clinical trial (HiFlo-COVID-19 Trial) showed that among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with high-flow oxygen therapy (HFOT) significantly reduced the need for invasive mechanical ventilation support and time for clinical recovery compared with conventional oxygen therapy (COT). However, the cost of this strategy is unknown.

Objective

We examined total cost of HFOT treatment compared with COT in real-world setting.

Methods

We conducted a post-trial-based cost analysis from the perspective of a managed competition healthcare system, using actual records of billed costs. Cost categories include general ward, intensive care unit, procedures, imaging, laboratories, medications, supplies, and others.

Results

A total of 188 participants (mean age 60, 33% female) were included. Average costs (and standard deviation) in the HFOT group were USD $7992 (7394) and in the COT group USD $ 10,190 (9402). Differences, however, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.093). However, resource use was always less costly for the HNFO group, with an overall percentage decrease of 27%. Two categories make up 72% of all savings: medications (41%) and intensive care unit (31%).

Conclusion

For patients in ICU with severe COVID-19 the cost of treatment with HFOT as compared to COT is likely to be cost-saving due to less use of medications and length of stay in ICU.

Scarcity in abundance? Spatial inequalities in Rheumatoid Arthritis in a health system with financial equity

BACKGROUND

This paper estimates spatial inequalities of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) in Colombia and explores correlates of those disparities from a health system perspective.

METHODS

We apply descriptive epidemiology to healthcare administrative records for estimation of crude and age-standardized prevalences, and health systems thinking for identification of barriers to effective access in RA diagnosis.

RESULTS

The crude and age-standardized RA prevalence for Colombia in 2018 is estimated at 0.43% and 0.36%, respectively. In the contributory regime, the binding constraint is effective access to rheumatologists in rural and sparsely populated areas; this constraint in workforce affects service delivery, and ultimately comes from the lack of a differentiated model for effective provision of healthcare in those areas (governance).

CONCLUSIONS

There are opportunities for implementation of public health policies and health system interventions that would lead to a better identification of RA patients and the subsequent more precise estimation of RA prevalence, and most importantly, to reduce exposition to risk factors and accurate diagnosis and treatment of RA patients.

A comparison of resource use of insured and uninsured venezuelan migrants: evidence from the hospital setting

BACKGROUND

There is no characterization of resource use in the hospital setting for immigrants in Colombia, we aimed to describe the resource use by Venezuelan immigrants, comparing those enrolled in the national health insurance system with those with and without the ability to pay.

METHODS

Retrospective review in the billing data system of our Hospital from 2011 to 2020. We collected information for 6,837 hospital episodes associated with 1,022 Venezuelan patients, hospital's billing information for all services rendered was extracted.

RESULTS

The mean cost per patient event were 4,595 USD for those without the ability to pay, costing 2.37 times more than a legal resident insured. Care in the ICU, inpatient days, surgery, and OB-GYN department consume most resources provided to vulnerable migrants.

DISCUSSION

Enrolment in the national health insurance may allow better access to health services by vulnerable Venezuelan migrants and thus reduce resource use for the health system.

Automated extraction of information from free text of Spanish oncology pathology reports

Background

Pathology reports are stored as unstructured, ungrammatical, fragmented, and abbreviated free text with linguistic variability among pathologists. For this reason, tumor information extraction requires a significant human effort. Recording data in an efficient and high-quality format is essential in implementing and establishing a hospital-based-cancer registry.

Objective

This study aimed to describe implementing a natural language processing algorithm for oncology pathology reports.

Methods

An algorithm was developed to process oncology pathology reports in Spanish to extract 20 medical descriptors. The approach is based on the successive coincidence of regular expressions.

Results

The validation was performed with 140 pathological reports. The topography identification was performed manually by humans and the algorithm in all reports. The human identified morphology in 138 reports and by the algorithm in 137. The average fuzzy matching score was 68.3 for Topography and 89.5 for Morphology.

Conclusions

A preliminary algorithm validation against human extraction was performed over a small set of reports with satisfactory results. This shows that a regular-expression approach can accurately and precisely extract multiple specimen attributes from free-text Spanish pathology reports. Additionally, we developed a website to facilitate collaborative validation at a larger scale which may be helpful for future research on the subject.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Increase in direct costs for health systems due to lupus nephritis: the case of Colombia

Objective

Lupus nephritis is one of the most severe complications of systemic lupus erythematosus and it has been estimated that can occur in up to 60% of patients. Direct costs of lupus nephritis have not been studied in developing countries. This study aimed to describe lupus nephritis direct costs in Colombia.

Methods

Administrative data from two Colombian health maintenance organizations for 2014 and 2015 was obtained. An algorithm based on the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10^th revision codes was developed to identify patients with lupus nephritis and lupus nephritis under study.

Results

The average annual per-patient, all-claims, all-cause direct cost for lupus nephritis was US$ 12,624, 7.5 times higher than the average lupus patient without lupus nephritis. For lupus nephritis cases under study, estimated direct cost was US$ 3,664, 2 times higher than average lupus patient in Colombia. Difference in lupus nephritis patients is mainly accounted for the cost and frequency of procedures, exceeding by a factor of 5 the cost for durable medical equipment and the cost for drugs, respectively.

Conclusion

Lupus patients who progress to lupus nephritis stage increased seven-fold the average annual per-patient, all-claims, and all-cause direct cost for the Colombian health system.

COVID-19 RESPONSE IN COLOMBIA: HITS AND MISSES

Introduction

Colombia has been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, being ranked 22nd among 187 countries in deaths per 100,000 people by February 2022. The country has also experienced the worst economic recession in its history, with real GDP contracting 7% in 2020. This paper describes Colombia's pre-pandemic context and the overall effect of the pandemic on health and economic indicators and examines the government's response to COVID-19.

Methods

Descriptive chronologic policy analysis on the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia and the measures and interventions implemented, using publicly available secondary data from Colombia's official agencies and international sources published from March 2020 to February 2022.

Results

The Colombian healthcare system increased its capacity in terms of infrastructure and human resources (from 8.6 ICU beds per 100,000 pre-pandemic to 21.9 in 2020, from 1.7 to 1.3 per 1000 doctors and nurses, respectively in 2019 to 1.8 and 1.5 per 1000 in 2020). The government commenced the National Vaccination Strategy on February 17, 2021, despite a slow start it managed to fully vaccinate 65.1% of its population, including Venezuelan immigrants, by February 2022.

Conclusions

Colombia's response to the pandemic combines hits and misses. The country organized an early and robust response; increased its healthcare system capacity; designed a risk-based, equitable, and inclusive national vaccination strategy; and introduced a flexible and responsive vaccine rollout. However, the government chose the wrong timing for reform, implemented a long and unpredictable lockdown, was late to procure COVID-19 vaccines and has not appropriately tackled vaccine hesitancy.

Public interest summary

Colombia has been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 138,000 COVID-19 deaths and over 6 million cases by the end of February 2022. According to number of deaths per 100,000 people, Colombia ranks 22nd in the world, among 187 countries. The country has also experienced the worst economic recession in its history. The Colombian healthcare system has been able to cope with a high number of COVID-19 cases without collapsing, but some public health indicators deteriorated. Colombia's response to the pandemic combines hits and misses. The country organized an early and robust response; increased its healthcare system capacity; designed a risk-based, equitable, and inclusive national vaccination strategy; and introduced a flexible and responsive vaccine rollout. As of February 2022, Colombia has fully vaccinated 65.1% of its population. However, the government chose the wrong timing for a tax reform, implemented a long and unpredictable lockdown, was late to procure COVID-19 vaccines and has not appropriately tackled vaccine hesitancy, which certainly contributed to its undesirable position in the mortality world raking.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Eficiencia en organizaciones prestadoras de servicios de salud: ilustración de casos en el contexto colombiano

Los sistemas de salud comparten una preocupación mundial: la sostenibilidad financiera. El costo de oportunidad de los recursos públicos en escenarios de escasez demanda de académicos, hacedores de políticas y administradores en salud para buscar ineficiencias y corregirlas. Este artículo presenta un resumen de literatura de marcos conceptuales para entender e identificar ineficiencias en los sistemas de salud. También resume algunos hallazgos para Colombia, publicados en la literatura gris, e ilustra ejemplos de detección y corrección de ineficiencias en el ámbito de la prestación de servicios de salud en el país. En la mayoría de los casos ilustrados no se requieren cuantiosas inversiones; en su lugar, se requiere voluntad y liderazgo para la integración y coordinación de equipos de trabajo y el seguimiento de guías y protocolos de práctica clínica; apoyo institucional a procesos innovadores y compromiso institucional e investigación en mejores prácticas. Se resalta la necesidad de un cambio de cultura en las organizaciones prestadoras de servicios de salud hacia la medición con información para la toma de decisiones basada en evidencia.

Safe and effective re-use policy for high-efficiency filtering facepiece respirators (FFRS): Experience of one hospital during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020

The high transmissibility rate of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 facilitated an exponential growth in the number of infections, posing a tremendous threat to healthcare systems across the world. The use of Non-oil 95% efficiency (N95) respirators demonstrated to reduce the risk of virus transmission. The escalated demand in N95 respirators during 2020 generated a massive shortage worldwide which resulted in serious implications, one being an increase in healthcare providers' costs. In response, various optimization strategies were implemented. This study aimed to assess the implementation of a safe and effective re-use policy for high-efficiency filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) in a high-complexity university hospital in 2020. Associated costs were estimated through a descriptive accounting analysis of resources saved. Acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility rates were 80.5%, 78.8%, and 83.6%, respectively. With an implementation cost of approximately 10,000 USD, there was a 56.1% reduction in FFRs consumption, compared with a non-policy scenario, with savings exceeding 500,000 USD in 2020. In a pandemic scenario where it is vital to spare resources, a FFRs rational use policy demonstrated to be a highly cost-efficient alternative in order to save resources without increasing contagion risk among healthcare workers.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

BACKGROUND

Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.

METHODS

Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.

RESULTS

Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.

Decreases in resource use after implementing an interdisciplinary management program for patients with placenta accreta spectrum

OBJECTIVE

Placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) often causes severe morbidity and demands the availability of abundant health resources. Research has shown that the participation of experienced interdisciplinary groups in specialized centers improves clinical outcomes. Our objective is to measure resource use variation after implementing an interdisciplinary management program for this condition.

METHODS

Using detailed billing information, hospital care resource use was measured at constant prices for women with PAS who were treated between 2011 and 2019. Cases were classified before (Group 1) and after (Group 2) the implementation of the program. A third group included women with intraoperative MAP findings (Group 3). Comparisons were made using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

The mean reduction in resource use after the program was 16.5% per patient. The program also reduced variability in resource use as measured by the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation, which decreased by 55.2% and 46.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The interdisciplinary management of patients affected by PAS in experienced hospitals is associated with a reduction in resource use and variability.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Parkinson's disease prevalence, age distribution and staging in Colombia

Parkinson’s disease (PD) has the second highest prevalence among neurodege - nerative diseases. In Colombia, PD population dynamics are currently unknown. Health records offer a unique resource to study frequency and multi-morbidity of chronic diseases. The aim of this research is to estimate prevalence and staging using administrative data (AD) provided by Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs). A cross-sectional study was conducted using 2015 AD from two Colombian HMOs (4.312.928 beneficiaries, 9.01% of the affiliated Colombian population). PD prevalence and severity was estimated by age and sex. Prevalence was adjusted to WHO demographics. Age-adjusted PD prevalence was 205.89 per 100.000 inhabitants. Prevalence increment of 62.13% was found between those aged ≥40 years and those aged ≥50 years. Similarly, each extra decade (50-80+) represented an increment of 83.65%, 80.95%, and 35.10%. Between 40 and 89 years, males exhibited a significantly higher PD prevalence compared to females. Advanced PD was more frequent as age increased from 3.77% in the group between 40 to 49 years to 25.86% in those older than 89 years. More common related comorbidities were arterial hypertension, diabetes, and psychiatric disorders; the first two increased their frequency with age, and the last one maintained its prevalence across all age groups. AD sets are useful to estimate the prevalence and staging of PD. Prevalence of PD in Colombia is higher in men and increases with age, as well as disease severity.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Direct cost of Parkinson's disease in a health system with high judicialization: evidence from Colombia

Objective: To estimate all-claims-all-conditions expenditures paid for by health plans for patients suffering from Parkinson´s disease (PD). Methods: Using administrative claims data from two health maintenance organizations for 2014 and 2015 in Colombia, we identified 2,917 patients with PD by applying an algorithm that uses International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System codes. Descriptive statistics were applied to compute unadjusted all-cause median costs. A generalized linear model was used to estimate adjusted and attributable direct costs of advanced PD. Results: Approximately 30% of the all-cause direct costs were associated with technologies not included in universal health coverage benefit packages. In 2015, the annual median interquartile range per patient all-cause direct costs to insurers was USD1,576 (605-3,617). About 16% of patients had advanced PD. Regression analysis estimated that additional costs attributable to advanced PD was USD3,416 (p = 0.000). Multimorbidity was highly prevalent, and 96% of PD patients had at least one other chronic condition. Conclusions: In the context of high judicialization, patients suffering from PD must increasingly use the judicial system to access treatment. To promote more equitable and efficient access benefit packages, developing countries must consider more thoroughly the needs of these patients.

Analyzing Factors Associated with Trash Pickers' Health Status: Census Data in a Major City in Colombia

This study aims to identify factors associated with the probability of trash pickers feeling physically or mentally ill and assesses differences by gender. To achieve these, we estimated multivariate regression models by using data from a census' update of 3109 trash pickers in Cali-Colombia in 2015. Outcomes are defined by two binary variables for whether the trash picker reports 14 or more days during the last month with physical and mental illness. Factors included demographic, family, psychological, socioeconomic and job characteristics. We found gender differences in several risk factors. Also a strong link between physical and mental health was found. Trash picker women are more vulnerable than men, public policy interventions aimed at prevention and treatment of mental health problems will have a positive side effect on their physical and mental health.

Mental health, interpersonal trust and subjective well-being in a high violence context

This paper assesses whether two factors of wellbeing, social capital (interpersonal trust and social networks) and subjective well-being are associated with frequent mental distress and if there are any mediating effects by gender in a city of high urban violence. This paper relies on data that comes from a sample of over 1300 people representative by gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic breakdown of the city of Cali in Colombia, which was collected in 2017 through face-to-face surveys. Our study uses logistic regression with fixed-effects at the district level to control for unobserved time-invariant factors. At the individual level, our analyses account for social and demographic context variables. The dependent variable is mental distress, defined as having 14 or more days feeling mentally ill in the previous 30-day period. Independent variables of interest are "interpersonal trust in unknown people" measured in a scale 0-10 and, social networks measured using the number of family members and close friends and subjective well-being through a question about life satisfaction in a scale 0-10. We find risk factors for mental health distress were low trust in unknown people, low life satisfaction, high levels of depression, living in cohabitation, being female, not having children, and living in middle socio-economic status. The odds of feeling mentally ill decreased as trust in unknown people increased by each unit in the trust scale (OR: 0.92). There were gender differences, with women's mental health being less likely to be affected by lack of interpersonal trust (OR: 0.94) than men (OR: 0.76). Our study suggests that actions aimed at fostering interpersonal trust in unknown people could positively affect mental health distress for both males and females. In the context of high urban violence, our study shows that men are more likely to benefit from such actions.

Direct cost of lupus care in the developing world: the case of Colombia

Background

Lupus is a chronic autoimmune and incurable rheumatic disease and has a global prevalence of 3.2–517.5 cases per 100,000 people. However, currently there is no knowledge regarding the actual direct cost of patients with lupus to healthcare systems in developing countries. This study aimed to determine the direct cost of lupus care in Colombia.

Methods

To identify patients with lupus, claims data of 2 years from two health insurers were subjected to an algorithm according to International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision codes. Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to assess the direct cost of lupus care.

Results

The average annual per-patient, all-claims, all-cause direct cost was $2355; this is approximately 9 times the average annual premium received by health insurers for covering the public benefits package. Approximately 50% of direct costs are not included in the public benefits package. The incidence of one or more condition is 98.4%. The direct cost incurred by patients with two comorbidities was 1.8 times more, with three chronic conditions was 1.9 times more and with six chronic conditions was 4.5 times more than that incurred by patients with only lupus.

Conclusions

The direct cost of lupus care in the developing world may be higher than expected; in addition, access to healthcare may not be equal for the entire population.

Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.

INTERPRETATION

Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparing the Medicaid Prospective Drug Utilization Review Program Cost-Savings Methods Used by State Agencies in 2015 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The Medicaid Drug Utilization Review (DUR) program is a 2-phase process conducted by Medicaid state agencies. The first phase is a prospective DUR process and involves electronically monitoring prescription drug claims to identify prescription-related problems, such as therapeutic duplication, contraindications, incorrect dosage, or duration of treatment. The second phase is a retrospective DUR involving ongoing, periodic examinations of claims data to identify patterns of fraud, abuse, underutilization, drug-drug interaction, and medically unnecessary care, and implement corrective actions when needed. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires each state to measure the prescription drug cost-savings generated from its DUR programs annually, but it provides no methodology for doing so. An earlier article compared the methodologies used by states to measure cost-savings in their retrospective DUR program in fiscal years 2014 and 2015.

OBJECTIVE

To describe and synthesize the methodologies used by states to measure cost-savings using their Medicaid prospective DUR program in federal fiscal years 2015 and 2016.

METHODS

For each state, we downloaded from Medicaid's website the cost-savings methodologies included in the Medicaid DUR 2015 and 2016 reports. We then reviewed and synthesized the reports. Methods described by the states were classified into a unique group based on the methodology used, except for Arkansas and Connecticut, which were classified in more than 1 category for the same period.

RESULTS

Currently, 3 different methodologies are being used by states. In 2015 and 2016, the most common methodology used (by 18 states) was the calculation of total claim rejections and subtracting claim resubmissions at the amount actually paid. The comparisons of DUR program cost-savings among states are unreliable, because the states lack a common methodology in the way they measure their performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the lack of methodologic consistency among states in measuring the savings in the Medicaid DUR program shown in this analysis, the federal government must lead an effort to define a unique methodology to measure cost-savings in its entire DUR program. This will help to improve the measure of savings among states and understand how this program is performing in that matter.

Higher pharmaceutical public expenditure after direct price control: improved access or induced demand? The Colombian case

Background

High pharmaceutical expenditure is one of the main concerns for policymakers worldwide. In Colombia, a middle-income country, outpatient prescription represents over 10% of total health expenditure in the mandatory benefits package (POS), and close to 90% in the complementary government fund (No POS). In order to control expenditure, since 2011, the Ministry of Health introduced price caps on inpatient drugs reimbursements by active ingredient. By 2013, more than 400 different products, covering 80% of public pharmaceutical expenditure were controlled. This paper investigates the effects of the Colombian policy efforts to control expenditure by controlling prices.

Methods

Using SISMED data, the official database for prices and quantities sold in the domestic market, we estimate a Laspeyres price index for 90 relevant markets in the period 2011-2015, and, then, we estimate real pharmaceutical expenditure.

Results

Results show that, after direct price controls were enacted, price inflation decreased almost - 43%, but real pharmaceutical expenditure almost doubled due mainly to an increase in units sold. Such disproportionate increase in units sold maybe attributable to better access to drugs due to lower prices, and/or to an increase in marketing efforts by the pharmaceutical industry to maintain profits.

Conclusions

We conclude that pricing interventions should be implemented along with a strong market monitoring to prevent market distortions such as inappropriate and unnecessary drug use.

Comparing the Medicaid Retrospective Drug Utilization Review Program Cost-Savings Methods Used by State Agencies

BACKGROUND

The Medicaid Drug Utilization Review (DUR) program is a 2-phase process conducted by Medicaid state agencies. The first phase is a prospective DUR and involves electronically monitoring prescription drug claims to identify prescription-related problems, such as therapeutic duplication, contraindications, incorrect dosage, or duration of treatment. The second phase is a retrospective DUR and involves ongoing and periodic examinations of claims data to identify patterns of fraud, abuse, underutilization, drug-drug interaction, or medically unnecessary care, implementing corrective actions when needed. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires each state to measure prescription drug cost-savings generated from its DUR programs on an annual basis, but it provides no guidance or unified methodology for doing so.

OBJECTIVES

To describe and synthesize the methodologies used by states to measure cost-savings using their Medicaid retrospective DUR program in federal fiscal years 2014 and 2015.

METHOD

For each state, the cost-savings methodologies included in the Medicaid DUR 2014 and 2015 reports were downloaded from Medicaid's website. The reports were then reviewed and synthesized. Methods described by the states were classified according to research designs often described in evaluation textbooks.

DISCUSSION

In 2014, the most often used prescription drugs cost-savings estimation methodology for the Medicaid retrospective DUR program was a simple pre-post intervention method, without a comparison group (ie, 12 states). In 2015, the most common methodology used was a pre-post intervention method, with a comparison group (ie, 14 states). Comparisons of savings attributed to the program among states are still unreliable, because of a lack of a common methodology available for measuring cost-savings.

CONCLUSION

There is great variation among states in the methods used to measure prescription drug utilization cost-savings. This analysis suggests that there is still room for improvement in terms of methodology transparency, which is important, because lack of transparency hinders states from learning from each other. Ultimately, the federal government needs to evaluate and improve its DUR program.

Alcohol use disorders and psychiatric diseases in Colombia

BACKGROUND

An accurate understanding of co-occurrence and comorbidity of alcohol use disorders (AUD) in Colombia is crucial for public health.

OBJECTIVE

A secondary analysis was conducted, using a 2003/2004 government´s population database to determine the lifetime associations between AUD and other mental and addictive disorders in people of Colombia aged 18-65 years.

METHODS

Several statistical analysis were performed: testing prevalence difference in mental disorders by whether the individual had an AUD; a stratified analysis by gender and logistic regression analyses accounting for differences in demographic, socio-economic, behavioral and self-reported health status variables.

RESULTS

People with AUD comprised 9% of the population, of which 88% were males and on average 37 years old. They were more likely to be males, be working, and be current smokers; and less likely to be at home or retired. The population with AUD had greater chance to comply with criteria for all disorders but minor depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, nicotine dependence, and oppositional defiant disorder.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates a high prevalence of mental disorders in the adult population with AUD in Colombia. The findings highlight the importance of comorbidity as a sign of disease severity and impact on public health and supports the need for training of more professionals and developing appropriate interventions and services.

Alcohol use disorders and psychiatric diseases in Colombia

Background: An accurate understanding of co-occurrence and comorbidity of alcohol use disorders (AUD) in Colombia is crucial for public health. Objective: A secondary analysis was conducted, using a 2003/2004 government´s population database to determine the lifetime associations between AUD and other mental and addictive disorders in people of Colombia aged 18-65 years. Methods: Several statistical analysis were performed: testing prevalence difference in mental disorders by whether the individual had an AUD; a stratified analysis by gender and logistic regression analyses accounting for differences in demographic, socio-economic, behavioral and self-reported health status variables. Results: People with AUD comprised 9% of the population, of which 88% were males and on average 37 years old. They were more likely to be males, be working, and be current smokers; and less likely to be at home or retired. The population with AUD had greater chance to comply with criteria for all disorders but minor depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, nicotine dependence, and oppositional defiant disorder. Conclusion: This study demonstrates a high prevalence of mental disorders in the adult population with AUD in Colombia. The findings highlight the importance of comorbidity as a sign of disease severity and impact on public health and supports the need for training of more professionals and developing appropriate interventions and services.

Level-I trauma centre treatment effects on return to work in teaching hospitals

BACKGROUND

Previous research found a positive effect of Level-I trauma centres on return to work outcomes for patients 18-64 years old who were mainly working before injury. Trauma centres were compared to hospitals that differed on average in characteristics such as size and staffing, among others. Thus, a portion of the effect found could be due to general differences in hospital variables rather than the special characteristics of Level I trauma centres. Comparing Level I trauma centres to other Teaching hospitals provides a more refined test of the effect of these centres on return-to-work outcomes.

METHODS

The National Study on the Costs and Outcomes of Trauma (NSCOT) is the main source of data for our empirical investigation. We used non-linear instrumental variables methods to control for unobserved characteristics and restrict the sample to teaching hospitals. The first method is the two-stage residual inclusion model in which we identify the effect using the proportion of resident population served by Helicopter Ambulance Services (at the state level) as an instrumental variable. The second method is a recursive bivariate probit model.

RESULTS

We found that treatment at Level-I trauma centres has a positive effect on return to work outcomes three months after injury. The estimated effect is statistically significant and positive, but lower than the estimate that did not focus on teaching hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

A previous study found positive effects of treatment at a Level-I trauma centre on return-to-work outcomes, however, a portion of the effect found was due to general differences in hospital variables.

Medicare payments: how much do chronic conditions matter?

OBJECTIVE

Analyze differences in Medicare Fee-for-Service utilization (i.e., program payments) by beneficiary characteristics, such as gender, age, and prevalence of chronic conditions.

METHODS

Using the 2008 and 2010 Chronic Conditions Public Use Files, we conduct a descriptive analysis of enrollment and program payments by gender, age categories, and eleven chronic conditions.

RESULTS

We find that the effect of chronic conditions on Medicare payments is dramatic. Average Medicare payments increase significantly with the number of chronic conditions. Finally, we quantify the effect of individual conditions and find that "Stroke / Transient Ischemic Attack" and "Chronic Kidney Disease" are the costliest chronic conditions for Part A, and "Cancer" and "Chronic Kidney Disease" are the costliest for Part B.

Level-I trauma center effects on return-to-work outcomes

BACKGROUND

Injury is the leading cause of death for persons aged 1-44 years in the United States. Injuries have a substantial economic cost. For that reason, regional systems of trauma care in which the more acutely injured patients are transported to Level-I (L-I) trauma centers (TCs) has been widely advocated. However, the cost of TC care is high, raising questions about the value of such an approach.

OBJECTIVES

To study L-I TC effectiveness and study return-to-work (RTW) outcomes.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Using data from National Study on the Costs and Outcomes of Trauma, the authors address the issue of selection bias by comparing naive estimates to matching techniques, as well as to nonlinear instrumental variable models (2SRI) and bivariate probit estimators.

SUBJECTS

Individuals ages 18-64 who were mainly working before traumatic injury. Patients selected for the study were treated at 69 hospitals located in 12 states in the United States. N = 1790.

MEASURES

Treatment is binary indicator on whether treated at L-I TC. Outcome is binary indicator on whether returned to work within 3 months after injury. Covariates include: demographics, pre-injury characteristics (job, health and insurance status), injury descriptors, other income sources, etc.

RESULTS

Across all models that control for unobserved factors, the authors find that L-I TC treatment is positively associated with RTW within 3 months after injury. The estimated average marginal effect of treatment on the probability of RTW ranges from 23 to 38 percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

Benefits of L-I TC care extend beyond mortality and morbidity.