The role of tropical rainfall in driving range dynamics for a long-distance migratory bird

Predicting how the range dynamics of migratory species will respond to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the factors that operate across the annual cycle to control the distribution and abundance of a species. Here, we use multiple lines of evidence to reveal that environmental conditions during the nonbreeding season influence range dynamics across the life cycle of a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Using long-term data from the nonbreeding grounds and breeding origins estimated from stable hydrogen isotopes in tail feathers, we found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years. A long-term drying trend throughout the Caribbean is associated with higher mortality for individuals from the northern portion of the species' breeding range, resulting in an approximate 500 km southward shift in breeding origins of this Jamaican population over the past 30 y. This shift in connectivity is mirrored by changes in the redstart's breeding distribution and abundance. These results demonstrate that the climatic effects on demographic processes originating during the tropical nonbreeding season are actively shaping range dynamics in a migratory bird.

Coproduction and modeling spatial contact networks prevent bias about infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus transmission for Snake River Basin salmonids

Much remains unknown about variation in pathogen transmission across the geographic range of a free-ranging fish or animal species and about the influence of movement (associated with husbandry practices or animal behavior) on pathogen transmission. Salmonid hatcheries are an ideal system in which to study these processes. Salmonid hatcheries are managed for endangered species recovery, supplementation of threatened or at-risk fish stocks, support of fisheries, and ecosystem stability. Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is a rhabdovirus of significant concern to salmon aquaculture. Landscape IHNV transmission dynamics previously had been estimated only for salmonid hatcheries in the Lower Columbia River Basin (LCRB). The objectives of this study were to estimate IHNV transmission dynamics in a unique geographic region, the Snake River Basin (SRB), and to quantitatively estimate the effect of model coproduction on inference because previous assessments of coproduction have been qualitative. In contrast to the LCRB, the SRB has hatchery complexes consisting of a main hatchery and ≥1 satellite facility. Knowledge about hatchery complexes was held by a subset of project researchers but would not have been available to project modelers without coproduction. Project modelers generated and tested multiple versions of Bayesian susceptible-exposedinfected models to realistically represent the SRB and estimate the effect of coproduction. Models estimated the frequency of transmission routes, route-specific infection probabilities, and infection probabilities for combinations of salmonid hosts and IHNV lineages. Model results indicated that in the SRB, avoiding exposure to IHNV-positive adult salmonids is the most important action to prevent juvenile infections. Migrating adult salmonids exposed juvenile cohort-sites most frequently, and the infection probability was greatest following exposure to migrating adults. Without coproduction, the frequency of exposure by migrating adults would have been overestimated by 70 cohort-sites, and the infection probability following exposure to migrating adults would have been underestimated by∼0.09. The coproduced model had less uncertainty in the infection probability if no transmission route could be identified (Bayesian credible interval (BCI) width = 0.12) compared to the model without coproduction (BCI width = 0.34). Evidence for virus lineage MD specialization on steelhead and rainbow trout (both Oncorhynchus mykiss) was apparent without model coproduction. In the SRB, we found a greater probability of virus lineage UC infection in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) compared to in O. mykiss, whereas in the LCRB, UC more clearly exhibited a generalist approach. Coproduction influenced estimates that depended on transmission routes, which operated differently at main hatcheries and satellite sites within hatchery complexes. Hatchery complexes are found outside of the SRB and are not specific to salmonid hatcheries alone. There is great potential for coproduction and modeling spatial contact networks to advance understanding about infectious disease transmission in complex production systems and surrounding free-ranging animal populations.

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

Changes in Container-Breeding Mosquito Diversity and Abundance Along an Urbanization Gradient are Associated With Dominance of Arboviral Vectors

Environmental conditions associated with urbanization are likely to influence the composition and abundance of mosquito (Diptera, Culicidae) assemblages through effects on juvenile stages, with important consequences for human disease risk. We present six years (2011-2016) of weekly juvenile mosquito data from distributed standardized ovitraps and evaluate how variation in impervious cover and temperature affect the composition and abundance of container-breeding mosquito species in Maryland, USA. Species richness and evenness were lowest at sites with high impervious cover (>60% in 100-m buffer). However, peak diversity was recorded at sites with intermediate impervious cover (28-35%). Four species were observed at all sites, including two recent invasives (Aedes albopictus Skuse, Ae. japonicus Theobald), an established resident (Culex pipiens L), and one native (Cx. restuans Theobald). All four are viral vectors in zoonotic or human transmission cycles. Temperature was a positive predictor of weekly larval abundance during the growing season for each species, as well as a positive predictor of rapid pupal development. Despite being observed at all sites, each species responded differently to impervious cover. Abundance of Ae. albopictus larvae was positively associated with impervious cover, emphasizing that this medically-important vector not only persists in the warmer, impervious urban landscape but is positively associated with it. Positive temperature effects in our models of larval abundance and pupae occurrence in container habitats suggest that these four vector species are likely to continue to be present and abundant in temperate cities under future temperature scenarios.

Condition-Specific Competitive Effects of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes albopictus on the Resident Culex pipiens among Different Urban Container Habitats May Explain Their Coexistence in the Field

Condition-specific competition, when environmental conditions alter the outcome of competition, can foster the persistence of resident species after the invasion of a competitively superior invader. We test whether condition-specific competition can facilitate the areawide persistence of the resident and principal West Nile virus vector mosquito Culex pipiens with the competitively superior invasive Aedes albopictus in water from different urban container habitats. (2) Methods: We tested the effects of manipulated numbers of A. albopictus on C. pipiens' survival and development in water collected from common functional and discarded containers in Baltimore, MD, USA. The experiment was conducted with typical numbers of larvae found in field surveys of C. pipiens and A. albopictus and container water quality. (3) Results: We found increased densities of A. albopictus negatively affected the survivorship and development of C. pipiens in water from discarded containers but had little effect in water from functional containers. This finding was driven by water from trash cans, which allowed consistently higher C. pipiens' survival and development and had greater mean ammonia and nitrate concentrations that can promote microbial food than other container types. (4) Conclusions: These results suggest that the contents of different urban containers alter the effects of invasive A. albopictus competition on resident C. pipiens, that trash cans, in particular, facilitate the persistence of C. pipiens, and that there could be implications for West Nile virus risk as a result.

Higher West Nile Virus Infection in Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes From Lower Income Neighborhoods in Urban Baltimore, MD

The temperate United States has experienced increasing incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. Recent studies conducted in Baltimore, MD have demonstrated a negative relationship between abundances of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Culex mosquitoes and mean neighborhood income level, but have not looked at the presence of pathogens. Mosquitoes collected from five socioeconomically variable neighborhoods were tested for infection by West Nile, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in 2015 and 2016, and again from four of the neighborhoods in 2017. Minimum infection rates of pooled samples were compared among neighborhoods for each year, as well as among individual blocks in 2017. West Nile virus was detected in both Ae. albopictus and Culex pools from all neighborhoods sampled in 2015 and 2017. No infected pools were detected in any year for chikungunya or Zika viruses, and none of the target viruses were detected in 2016. Infection rates were consistently higher for Culex than for Ae. albopictus. Minimum infection rate was negatively associated with mean neighborhood income for both species in 2015. Although earlier work has shown a positive association between block-level abandonment and mosquito abundance, no association was detected in this study. Still, we demonstrate that viral infection in mosquito pools can differ substantially across adjacent urban neighborhoods that vary by income. Though trap security and accessibility often inform city sampling locations, detecting and managing arboviral risk requires surveillance across neighborhoods that vary in socioeconomics, including lower income areas that may be less accessible and secure but have higher infection rates.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices Survey in Greece before the Implementation of Sterile Insect Technique against Aedes albopictus

Simple Summary

Aedes albopictus, also known as the Asian tiger mosquito, tends to breed in various artificial containers frequently found in urban areas. Since urban areas cannot be easily accessed for the application of control measures, community engagement is considered beneficial in vector control. The area of Vravrona, Greece was selected for the implementation of the sterile insect technique (SIT) against Aedes albopictus for the first time in Greece. In the current study, a door-to-door campaign was used as a prerelease intervention to raise community awareness about SIT and encourage removal of mosquito habitats in their yards. A KAP (knowledge, attitude, practices) survey was used to collect these data of local community members. Our results demonstrate that using the door-to-door campaign as a prerelease method can raise community awareness, reduce the initial mosquito population, and potentially improve SIT efficacy. The participation of key persons, such as scientific experts and municipality members, in the implementation of the interventions is crucial for the successful engagement of community and may prove important in granting permission to enter their private properties for entomological surveillance.

Abstract

Community involvement in Aedes albopictus management can be very efficient and result in raising awareness among citizens. Toward this end, a door-to-door campaign can encourage active community participation in vector control. The current study describes the results of an intervention where a KAP (knowledge, attitude, practices) survey tool was paired with a door-to-door campaign and was implemented as an intervention method in Vravrona area (Attica, Greece) before the release of sterile males (sterile insect technique, SIT) against Aedes albopictus. The KAP tool was used to shed light on the knowledge, practices, and attitudes of local community members in order to better prepare and motivate participation in household mosquito control and to assess current understanding of SIT. Each household also received specific information about mosquito source habitat in their own yards at the time of the initial KAP survey. These household data were complemented by standardized mosquito trapping in the municipality. Our findings indicate that citizens’ attitude toward SIT ranged from indecisive to fully supportive, while 77.5% of the respondents agreed that the SIT has many advantages over chemical control methods. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that using the door-to-door campaign as an intervention and prerelease method before SIT can suppress the initial mosquito population and potentially improve its efficacy. Lastly, we show that the presence of local municipality officials during door-to-door visits was associated with increased willingness from the residents to participate in the intervention.

Rodents harbouring zoonotic pathogens take advantage of abandoned land in post-Katrina New Orleans

Leptospirosis is a disease that disproportionately affects impoverished urban communities, but is likely to become more prevalent as changing climate alters flooding regimes. The persistence and transmission of the Leptospira pathogen is reliant on small vertebrate animals, predominantly rodents. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Peterson et al. demonstrate how changes in rodent diversity and abundances across the complex mosaic of abandonment and recovery investment in post-Katrina New Orleans can predict zoonotic infection prevalence. Understanding the ecological conditions that support persistence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens in urban ecosystems, where they are most likely to affect humans, is critical to effective monitoring and prevention.

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus specialization in a multihost salmonid system

Many pathogens interact and evolve in communities where more than one host species is present, yet our understanding of host-pathogen specialization is mostly informed by laboratory studies with single species. Managing diseases in the wild, however, requires understanding how host-pathogen specialization affects hosts in diverse communities. Juvenile salmonid mortality in hatcheries caused by infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) has important implications for salmonid conservation programs. Here, we evaluate evidence for IHNV specialization on three salmonid hosts and assess how this influences intra- and interspecific transmission in hatchery-reared salmonids. We expect that while more generalist viral lineages should pose an equal risk of infection across host types, viral specialization will increase intraspecific transmission. We used Bayesian models and data from 24 hatcheries in the Columbia River Basin to reconstruct the exposure history of hatcheries with two IHNV lineages, MD and UC, allowing us to estimate the probability of juvenile infection with these lineages in three salmonid host types. Our results show that lineage MD is specialized on steelhead trout and perhaps rainbow trout (both Oncorhynchus mykiss), whereas lineage UC displayed a generalist phenotype across steelhead trout, rainbow trout, and Chinook salmon. Furthermore, our results suggest the presence of specialist-generalist trade-offs because, while lineage UC had moderate probabilities of infection across host types, lineage MD had a small probability of infection in its nonadapted host type, Chinook salmon. Thus, in addition to quantifying probabilities of infection of socially and economically important salmonid hosts with different IHNV lineages, our results provide insights into the trade-offs that viral lineages incur in multihost communities. Our results suggest that knowledge of the specialist/generalist strategies of circulating viral lineages could be useful in salmonid conservation programs to control disease.

The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics

Many important endemic and emerging diseases are transmitted by vectors that are biting arthropods. The functional traits of vectors can affect pathogen transmission rates directly and also through their effect on vector population dynamics. Increasing empirical evidence shows that vector traits vary significantly across individuals, populations, and environmental conditions, and at time scales relevant to disease transmission dynamics. Here, we review empirical evidence for variation in vector traits and how this trait variation is currently incorporated into mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission. We argue that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world. We provide a conceptual framework for incorporating trait variation into vector-borne disease transmission models, and highlight key empirical and theoretical challenges. This framework provides a means to conceptualize how traits can be incorporated in vector borne disease systems, and identifies key areas in which trait variation can be explored. Determining when and to what extent it is important to incorporate trait variation into vector borne disease models remains an important, outstanding question.

Theoretical Perspectives of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study: Conceptual Evolution in a Social-Ecological Research Project

The Earth's population will become more than 80% urban during this century. This threshold is often regarded as sufficient justification for pursuing urban ecology. However, pursuit has primarily focused on building empirical richness, and urban ecology theory is rarely discussed. The Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) has been grounded in theory since its inception and its two decades of data collection have stimulated progress toward comprehensive urban theory. Emerging urban ecology theory integrates biology, physical sciences, social sciences, and urban design, probes interdisciplinary frontiers while being founded on textbook disciplinary theories, and accommodates surprising empirical results. Theoretical growth in urban ecology has relied on refined frameworks, increased disciplinary scope, and longevity of interdisciplinary interactions. We describe the theories used by BES initially, and trace ongoing theoretical development that increasingly reflects the hybrid biological-physical-social nature of the Baltimore ecosystem. The specific mix of theories used in Baltimore likely will require modification when applied to other urban areas, but the developmental process, and the key results, will continue to benefit other urban social-ecological research projects.

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Aedes albopictus Body Size Differs Across Neighborhoods With Varying Infrastructural Abandonment

Mosquitoes pose an increasing risk in urban landscapes, where spatial heterogeneity in juvenile habitat can influence fine-scale differences in mosquito density and biting activity. We examine how differences in juvenile mosquito habitat along a spectrum of urban infrastructure abandonment can influence the adult body size of the invasive tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae). Adult Ae. albopictus were collected across 3 yr (2015-2017) from residential blocks in Baltimore, MD, that varied in abandonment level, defined by the proportion of houses with boarded-up doors. We show that female Ae. albopictus collected from sites with higher abandonment were significantly larger than those collected from higher income, low abandonment blocks. Heterogeneity in mosquito body size, including wing length, has been shown to reflect differences in important traits, including longevity and vector competence. The present work demonstrates that heterogeneity in female size may reflect juvenile habitat variability across the spatial scales most relevant to adult Aedes dispersal and human exposure risk in urban landscapes. Previous work has shown that failure to manage abandonment and waste issues in impoverished neighborhoods supports greater mosquito production, and this study suggests that mosquitoes in these same neighborhoods could live longer, produce more eggs, and have different vector potential.

Assessing Effectiveness of Recommended Residential Yard Management Measures Against Ticks

Public health authorities recommend a range of nonchemical measures to control blacklegged ticks Ixodes scapularis Say, 1821 (Ixodida: Ixodidae) in residential yards. Here we enumerate these recommendations and assess their relationship to larval tick abundance in 143 yards in Dutchess County, New York, an area with high Lyme disease incidence. We examined the relationship between larval tick abundance and eight property features related to recommendations from public health agencies: presence or absence of outdoor cats, wood piles, trash, stone walls, wood chip barriers separating lawn from adjacent forest, bird feeders, fencing, and prevalence of Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii DC [Ranunculales: Berberidaceae]). We assessed abundance of larval ticks using two methods, flagging for questing ticks and visual examination of ticks on white-footed mice Peromyscus leucopus Rafinesque, 1818 (Rodentia: Cricetidae). More questing larvae were found in yards where trash or stone walls were present. These effects were less pronounced as forest area increased within the yard. Counts of larvae per mouse were lower in properties with >75% of the yard fenced than in properties with less fencing. We find partial support for recommendations regarding trash, stone walls, and fencing. We did not detect effects of outdoor cats, bird feeders, barriers, wood piles, or Japanese barberry. There was low statistical power to detect effects of ground barriers (gravel, mulch, or woodchip), which were present in only two properties.

Relationships Among Immature-Stage Metrics and Adult Abundances of Mosquito Populations in Baltimore, MD

Reducing water-holding containers that provide habitat for immature-stage (eggs, larvae, pupae) mosquitoes is often an effective means of managing urban mosquito-borne diseases. It is generally accepted that adult mosquito abundances are strongly influenced by the availability of container habitat. Yet few studies have directly examined if adult abundances are associated with the presence and abundance of immature stages among city blocks, which is the spatial scale at which common urban mosquitoes disperse and management is often conducted. In this study, we compared larval and pupal population metrics to adult female abundances of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex pipiens/restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) across 12 blocks in four socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods in Baltimore, MD. Aedes albopictus and Cx. pipiens/restuans were the most abundant taxa, constituting 81.8 and 95.8% of collected adult and immature-stage individuals, respectively. Despite being collected on all blocks in all neighborhoods, adult female Ae. albopictus but not Cx. pipiens/restuans were predicted by immature-stage population metrics. Adult female Ae. albopictus abundance was positively and consistently predicted by the mean number of occupied discarded containers per parcel across the four socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods. Our results suggest that immature-stage monitoring in landscapes dominated by container habitat may not be an effective predictor of adult Cx. pipiens/restuans abundance, but removing discarded container habitat should be a priority action to manage Ae. albopictus, which is usually the most pestiferous species in temperate cities in the eastern United States and many regions worldwide.

Reducing Aedes albopictus breeding sites through education: A study in urban area

Aedes albopictus tends to proliferate in small, often man-made bodies of water, largely present in urban private areas. For this reason, education and community participation are considered crucial for source reduction and mosquito control. In the current study, we identify mosquito breeding habitat and evaluate the effectiveness of resident education. Since 2010 several outbreaks of West Nile virus infection occurred in Greece however urban population has no previous experience with mosquito–borne disease related to Aedes species, such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. After the introduction of Ae. albopictus in Greece, urban areas have been considered to be at risk of epidemic arboviral outbreaks and identifying effective control strategies is imperative. Our study examines the relationship between mosquito breeding sources and socioeconomic or demographic characteristics of different households in a Greek municipality and evaluates efficacy of resident education. The results revealed that only a minority of residents knew where mosquitoes breed (18.6%) and only 46% felt that residents had any responsibility for managing breeding habitat. Our findings strongly suggest that only the presence of scientific staff inspecting possible habitats in their properties, could be enough to stimulate practices towards source reduction. However, educational interventions alone with printed education material cannot enhance significant community participation and source reduction.

Primary blood-hosts of mosquitoes are influenced by social and ecological conditions in a complex urban landscape

Background

Temperate urban landscapes support persistent and growing populations of Culex and Aedes mosquito vectors. Large urban mosquito populations can represent a significant risk for transmission of emergent arboviral infection. However, even large mosquito populations are only a risk to the animals they bite. The purpose of this study is to identify and assess spatial patterns of host-use in a temperate urban landscape with heterogeneous socio-economic and ecological conditions.

Results

Mosquito blood meals were collected from neighborhoods categorized along a socio-economic gradient in Baltimore, MD, USA. Blood meal hosts were identified for two Aedes (Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus) and three Culex (Cx. pipiens, Cx. restuans and Cx. salinarius) species. The brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) was the most frequently detected host in both Aedes species and Cx. salinarius. Human biting was evident in Aedes and Culex species and the proportion of human blood meals from Ae. albopictus varied significantly with neighborhood socio-economic status. Aedes albopictus was most likely to feed on human blood hosts (at 50%) in residential blocks categorized as having income above the city median, although there were still more total human bites detected from lower income blocks where Ae. albopictus was more abundant. Birds were the most frequently detected Culex blood hosts but were absent from all Aedes sampled.

Conclusions

This study highlights fine-scale variation in host-use by medically important mosquito vectors and specifically investigates blood meal composition at spatial scales relevant to urban mosquito dispersal and human exposure. Further, the work emphasizes the importance of neighborhood economics and infrastructure management in shaping both the relative abundance of vectors and local blood feeding strategies. The invasive brown rat was an important blood source across vector species and neighborhoods in Baltimore. We show that social and economic conditions can be important predictors of transmission potential in urban landscapes and identify important questions about the role of rodents in supporting urban mosquito populations.

Effects of tire leachate on the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus and the native congener Aedes triseriatus

Discarded vehicle tire casings are an important artificial habitat for the developmental stages of numerous vector mosquitoes. Discarded vehicle tires degrade under ultraviolet light and leach numerous soluble metals (e.g., barium, cadmium, zinc) and organic substances (e.g., benzothiazole and its derivatives [BZTs], polyaromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs]) that could affect mosquito larvae that inhabit the tire casing. This study examined the relationship between soluble zinc, a common marker of tire leachate, on mosquito densities in tire habitats in the field, and tested the effects of tire leachate on the survival and development of newly hatched Aedes albopictus and Aedes triseriatus larvae in a controlled laboratory dose-response experiment. In the field, zinc concentrations were as high as 7.26 mg/L in a single tire and averaged as high as 2.39 (SE ± 1.17) mg/L among tires at a single site. Aedes albopictus (37/42 tires, 81.1%) and A. triseriatus (23/42, 54.8%) were the most widespread mosquito species, co-occurred in over half (22/42, 52.4%) of all tires, and A. triseriatus was only collected without A. albopictus in one tire. Aedes triseriatus was more strongly negatively associated with zinc concentration than A. albopictus, and another common mosquito, C. pipiens, which was found in 17 tires. In the laboratory experiment, A. albopictus per capita rate of population change (λ') was over 1.0, indicating positive population growth, from 0-8.9 mg/L zinc concentration (0-10,000 mg/L tire leachate), but steeply declined to zero from 44.50-89.00 mg/L zinc (50,000-100,000 mg/L tire leachate). In contrast, A. triseriatus λ' declined at the lower concentration of 0.05 mg/L zinc (100 mg/L tire leachate), and was zero at 0.45, 8.90, 44.50, and 89.00 mg/L zinc (500, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 mg/L tire leachate). These results indicate that tire leachate can have severe negative effects on populations of container-utilizing mosquitoes at concentrations commonly found in the field. Superior tolerance to tire leachate of A. albopictus compared to A. triseriatus, and possibly other native mosquito species, may have facilitated the replacement of these native species as A. albopictus has invaded North America and other regions around the world.

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States

The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.

Nonnative forest insects and pathogens in the United States: Impacts and policy options

We review and synthesize information on invasions of nonnative forest insects and diseases in the United States, including their ecological and economic impacts, pathways of arrival, distribution within the United States, and policy options for reducing future invasions. Nonnative insects have accumulated in United States forests at a rate of ~2.5 per yr over the last 150 yr. Currently the two major pathways of introduction are importation of live plants and wood packing material such as pallets and crates. Introduced insects and diseases occur in forests and cities throughout the United States, and the problem is particularly severe in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Nonnative forest pests are the only disturbance agent that has effectively eliminated entire tree species or genera from United States forests within decades. The resulting shift in forest structure and species composition alters ecosystem functions such as productivity, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. In urban and suburban areas, loss of trees from streets, yards, and parks affects aesthetics, property values, shading, stormwater runoff, and human health. The economic damage from nonnative pests is not yet fully known, but is likely in the billions of dollars per year, with the majority of this economic burden borne by municipalities and residential property owners. Current policies for preventing introductions are having positive effects but are insufficient to reduce the influx of pests in the face of burgeoning global trade. Options are available to strengthen the defenses against pest arrival and establishment, including measures taken in the exporting country prior to shipment, measures to ensure clean shipments of plants and wood products, inspections at ports of entry, and post-entry measures such as quarantines, surveillance, and eradication programs. Improved data collection procedures for inspections, greater data accessibility, and better reporting would support better evaluation of policy effectiveness. Lack of additional action places the nation, local municipalities, and property owners at high risk of further damaging and costly invasions. Adopting stronger policies to reduce establishments of new forest insects and diseases would shift the major costs of control to the source and alleviate the economic burden now borne by homeowners and municipalities.

Effectiveness of Print Education at Reducing Urban Mosquito Infestation through Improved Resident-Based Management

Improving resident-based management and knowledge of mosquitoes is often an integral component of integrated mosquito management, especially in urban landscapes with considerable mosquito habitat on privately owned lands. This study tested the effectiveness of print education materials at reducing urban mosquito exposure through improving resident knowledge of, and attitudes towards, mosquitoes and mosquito management in Washington DC, USA. There was a specific focus on the removal of water-filled containers that are utilized by the developmental stages of the two most common vector species in the region, Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens. Households in six neighborhoods that varied in socio-economic status were administered knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) surveys in 2010 and 2012, and had their yards surveyed for container habitats and immature mosquitoes (larvae and pupae) in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Half the households (intervention, n = 120) received education materials in 2011 and 2012 to yield a before-after control-intervention (BACI) design. Unexpectedly, residents in intervention households were more likely to show decreased concern for mosquito-borne illnesses than residents in control households, which did not receive materials. Moreover, there was a greater probability that control households reduced containers in 2012 than intervention households, particularly when they had low numbers of baseline (2010) containers. Irrespective of control, reductions in containers were associated with decreased abundances of immature mosquitoes. Overall, our findings suggest that print education materials may have unintended negative effects on resident attitudes and household management of mosquito production. We recommend that mosquito control agencies need to carefully consider their content of print messages and the effectiveness of strategies that passively convey information with little or no engagement with control professionals.

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain persistent gaps in understanding of vital rates and drivers in mosquito-vectored disease systems, and vast holes in understanding for other arthropod vectored diseases. Empirical studies are needed to better understand the physiological constraints and socio-ecological processes that generate heterogeneity in critical transmission parameters, including vector survival and fitness. Likewise, laboratory experiments and transmission models must evaluate vector response to realistic field conditions, including variability in sociological and environmental conditions.

Climate change and species interactions: ways forward

With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide.

Mycobiome of the bat white nose syndrome affected caves and mines reveals diversity of fungi and local adaptation by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans

Current investigations of bat White Nose Syndrome (WNS) and the causative fungus Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans (Pd) are intensely focused on the reasons for the appearance of the disease in the Northeast and its rapid spread in the US and Canada. Urgent steps are still needed for the mitigation or control of Pd to save bats. We hypothesized that a focus on fungal community would advance the understanding of ecology and ecosystem processes that are crucial in the disease transmission cycle. This study was conducted in 2010–2011 in New York and Vermont using 90 samples from four mines and two caves situated within the epicenter of WNS. We used culture-dependent (CD) and culture-independent (CI) methods to catalogue all fungi (‘mycobiome’). CD methods included fungal isolations followed by phenotypic and molecular identifications. CI methods included amplification of DNA extracted from environmental samples with universal fungal primers followed by cloning and sequencing. CD methods yielded 675 fungal isolates and CI method yielded 594 fungal environmental nucleic acid sequences (FENAS). The core mycobiome of WNS comprised of 136 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) recovered in culture and 248 OTUs recovered in clone libraries. The fungal community was diverse across the sites, although a subgroup of dominant cosmopolitan fungi was present. The frequent recovery of Pd (18% of samples positive by culture) even in the presence of dominant, cosmopolitan fungal genera suggests some level of local adaptation in WNS-afflicted habitats, while the extensive distribution of Pd (48% of samples positive by real-time PCR) suggests an active reservoir of the pathogen at these sites. These findings underscore the need for integrated disease control measures that target both bats and Pd in the hibernacula for the control of WNS.

When is a parasite not a parasite? Effects of larval tick burdens on white-footed mouse survival

Many animal species can carry considerable burdens of ectoparasites: parasites living on the outside of a host's body. Ectoparasite infestation can decrease host survival, but the magnitude and even direction of survival effects can vary depending on the type of ectoparasite and the nature and duration of the association. When ectoparasites also serve as vectors of pathogens, the effects of ectoparasite infestation on host survival have the potential to alter disease dynamics by regulating host populations and stabilizing transmission. We quantified the impact of larval Ixodes scapularis tick burdens on both within-season and overwinter survival of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) using a hierarchical Bayesian capture-mark-recapture model. I. scapularis and P. leucopus are, respectively, vectors and competent reservoirs for the causative agents of Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Using a data set of 5587 individual mouse capture histories over sixteen years, we found little evidence for any effect of tick burdens on either within-season or overwinter mouse survival probabilities. In male mice, tick burdens were positively correlated with within-season survival probabilities. Mean maximum tick burdens were also positively correlated with population rates of change during the concurrent breeding season. The apparent indifference of mice to high tick burdens may contribute to their effectiveness as reservoir hosts for several human zoonotic pathogens.

A tale of two city blocks: differences in immature and adult mosquito abundances between socioeconomically different urban blocks in Baltimore (Maryland, USA)

Infrastructure degradation in many post-industrial cities has increased the availability of potential mosquito habitats, including container habitats that support infestations of invasive disease-vectors. This study is unique in examining both immature and adult mosquito abundance across the fine-scale variability in socio-economic condition that occurs block-to-block in many cities. We hypothesized that abundant garbage associated with infrastructure degradation would support greater mosquito production but instead, found more mosquito larvae and host-seeking adults (86%) in parcels across the higher socio-economic, low-decay block. Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens were 5.61 (p < 0.001) and 4.60 (p = 0.001) times more abundant, respectively. Most discarded (garbage) containers were dry during peak mosquito production, which occurred during the 5th hottest July on record. Containers associated with human residence were more likely to hold water and contain immature mosquitoes. We propose that mosquito production switches from rain-fed unmanaged containers early in the season to container habitats that are purposefully shaded or watered by mid-season. This study suggests that residents living in higher socioeconomic areas with low urban decay may be at greater risk of mosquito-borne disease during peak mosquito production when local container habitats are effectively decoupled from environmental constraints.

Higher mosquito production in low-income neighborhoods of Baltimore and Washington, DC: understanding ecological drivers and mosquito-borne disease risk in temperate cities

Mosquito-vectored pathogens are responsible for devastating human diseases and are (re)emerging in many urban environments. Effective mosquito control in urban landscapes relies on improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecological and social factors that define where mosquito populations can grow. We compared the density of mosquito habitat and pupae production across economically varying neighborhoods in two temperate U.S. cities (Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC). Seven species of mosquito larvae were recorded. The invasive Aedes albopictus was the only species found in all neighborhoods. Culex pipiens, a primary vector of West Nile virus (WNV), was most abundant in Baltimore, which also had more tire habitats. Both Culex and Aedes pupae were more likely to be sampled in neighborhoods categorized as being below median income level in each city and Aedes pupae density was also greater in container habitats found in these lower income neighborhoods. We infer that lower income residents may experience greater exposure to potential disease vectors and Baltimore residents specifically, were at greater risk of exposure to the predominant WNV vector. However, we also found that resident-reported mosquito nuisance was not correlated with our measured risk index, indicating a potentially important mismatch between motivation needed to engage participation in control efforts and the relative importance of control among neighborhoods.

Linking mosquito infestation to resident socioeconomic status, knowledge, and source reduction practices in suburban Washington, DC

Eliminating water-holding containers where mosquitoes oviposit and develop (source reduction) can help manage urban disease-vector mosquitoes. Source reduction requires residents to be knowledgeable of effective practices and motivated to implement them. We tested relationships between demographics, resident knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP), and mosquito infestation by administering larval mosquito surveys and KAP questionnaires in Washington, DC. Respondents who reported practicing source reduction had lower numbers of pupae-positive containers and Culex pipiens-positive containers, but not Aedes albopictus-positive containers or water-holding containers, in their yards. When controlling for numbers of water-holding containers in statistical models, residents who reported source reduction had lower numbers of A. albopictus-positive containers in addition to numbers of pupae-positive containers and C. pipiens-positive containers. These results suggest that while active container reduction may be effective at reducing C. pipiens and overall pupal production, it may be offset by other resident activities that add containers to yards, and that source reduction that involves mosquito habitat management without outright container removal can also be effective at reducing A. albopictus. Source reduction was related to respondent knowledge of mosquitoes and, in particular, specific knowledge of mosquito development, which both varied with demographics alongside respondent motivation to control mosquitoes. Respondents from high socioeconomic status households reported greater knowledge but lower motivation than respondents from middle and low socioeconomic-status households. We conclude that mosquito-related education will help promote community-based container management as part of integrated mosquito management programs, particularly in middle and low socioeconomic status neighborhoods with lower knowledge and high motivation.

Range-wide effects of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on the abundance of a Neotropical migrant songbird

Geographic variation in the population dynamics of a species can result from regional variability in climate and how it affects reproduction and survival. Identifying such effects for migratory birds requires the integration of population models with knowledge of migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. We used Bayesian hierarchical models with 26 years of Breeding Bird Survey data (1982-2007) to investigate the impacts of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on abundance of American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) across the species range. We focused on 15 populations defined by Bird Conservation Regions, and we included variation across routes and observers as well as temporal trends and climate effects. American Redstart populations that breed in eastern North America showed increased abundance following winters with higher plant productivity in the Caribbean where they are expected to overwinter. In contrast, western breeding populations showed little response to conditions in their expected wintering areas in west Mexico, perhaps reflecting lower migratory connectivity or differential effects of winter rainfall on individuals across the species range. Unlike the case with winter climate, we found few effects of temperature prior to arrival in spring (March-April) or during the nesting period (May-June) on abundance the following year. Eight populations showed significant changes in abundance, with the steepest declines in the Atlantic Northern Forest (-3.4%/yr) and the greatest increases in the Prairie Hardwood Transition (4%/yr). This study emphasizes how the effects of climate on populations of migratory birds are context dependent and can vary depending on geographic location and the period of the annual cycle. Such knowledge is essential for predicting regional variation in how populations of a species might vary in their response to climate change.

Data-model fusion to better understand emerging pathogens and improve infectious disease forecasting

Ecologists worldwide are challenged to contribute solutions to urgent and pressing environmental problems by forecasting how populations, communities, and ecosystems will respond to global change. Rising to this challenge requires organizing ecological information derived from diverse sources and formally assimilating data with models of ecological processes. The study of infectious disease has depended on strategies for integrating patterns of observed disease incidence with mechanistic process models since John Snow first mapped cholera cases around a London water pump in 1854. Still, zoonotic and vector-borne diseases increasingly affect human populations, and methods used to successfully characterize directly transmitted diseases are often insufficient. We use four case studies to demonstrate that advances in disease forecasting require better understanding of zoonotic host and vector populations, as well of the dynamics that facilitate pathogen amplification and disease spillover into humans. In each case study, this goal is complicated by limited data, spatiotemporal variability in pathogen transmission and impact, and often, insufficient biological understanding. We present a conceptual framework for data-model fusion in infectious disease research that addresses these fundamental challenges using a hierarchical state-space structure to (1) integrate multiple data sources and spatial scales to inform latent parameters, (2) partition uncertainty in process and observation models, and (3) explicitly build upon existing ecological and epidemiological understanding. Given the constraints inherent in the study of infectious disease and the urgent need for progress, fusion of data and expertise via this type of conceptual framework should prove an indispensable tool.

West Nile virus impacts in American crow populations are associated with human land use and climate

West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in the western hemisphere during the summer of 1999, reawakening US public awareness of the potential severity of vector-borne pathogens. Since its New World introduction, WNV has caused disease in human, avian, and mammalian communities across the continent. American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) are a highly susceptible WNV host and when modeled appropriately, changes in crow abundances can serve as a proxy for the spatio-temporal presence of WNV. We use the dramatic declines in abundance of this avian host to examine spatio-temporal heterogeneity in WNV intensity across the northeastern US, where WNV was first detected. Using data from the Breeding Bird Survey, we identify significant declines in crow abundance after WNV emergence that are associated with lower forest cover, more urban land use, and warmer winter temperatures. Importantly, we document continued declines as WNV was present in an area over consecutive years. Our findings support the urban-pathogen link that human WNV incidence studies have shown. For each 1% increase in urban land cover we expect an additional 5% decline in the log crow abundance beyond the decline attributed to WNV in undeveloped areas. We also demonstrate a significant relationship between above-average winter temperatures and WNV-related declines in crow abundance. The mechanisms behind these patterns remain uncertain and hypotheses requiring further research are suggested. In particular, a strong positive relationship between urban land cover and winter temperatures may confound mechanistic understanding, especially when a temperature-sensitive vector is involved.

West Nile virus emergence and large-scale declines of North American bird populations

Emerging infectious diseases present a formidable challenge to the conservation of native species in the twenty-first century. Diseases caused by introduced pathogens have had large impacts on species abundances, including the American chestnut, Hawaiian bird species and many amphibians. Changes in host population sizes can lead to marked shifts in community composition and ecosystem functioning. However, identifying the impacts of an introduced disease and distinguishing it from other forces that influence population dynamics (for example, climate) is challenging and requires abundance data that extend before and after the introduction. Here we use 26 yr of Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to determine the impact of West Nile virus (WNV) on 20 potential avian hosts across North America. We demonstrate significant changes in population trajectories for seven species from four families that concur with a priori predictions and the spatio-temporal intensity of pathogen transmission. The American crow population declined by up to 45% since WNV arrival, and only two of the seven species with documented impact recovered to pre-WNV levels by 2005. Our findings demonstrate the potential impacts of an invasive species on a diverse faunal assemblage across broad geographical scales, and underscore the complexity of subsequent community response.

Modeling seed dispersal distances: implications for transgenic Pinus taeda

Predicting forest-tree seed dispersal across a landscape is useful for estimating gene flow from genetically engineered (GE) or transgenic trees. The question of biocontainment has yet to be resolved, although field-trial permits for transgenic forest trees are on the rise. Most current field trials in the United States occur in the Southeast where Pinus taeda L., an indigenous species, is the major timber commodity. Seed dispersal distances were simulated using a model where the major determinants were: (1) forest canopy height at seed release, (2) terminal velocity of the seeds, (3) absolute seed release, and (4) turbulent-flow statistics, all of which were measured or determined within a P. taeda plantation established from seeds collected from wild forest-tree stands at the Duke Forest near Durham, North Carolina, USA. In plantations aged 16 and 25 years our model results showed that most of the seeds fell within local-neighborhood dispersal distances, with estimates ranging from 0.05 to 0.14 km from the source. A fraction of seeds was uplifted above the forest canopy and moved via the long-distance dispersal (LDD) process as far as 11.9-33.7 km. Out of 10(5) seeds produced per hectare per year, roughly 440 seeds were predicted to be uplifted by vertical eddies above the forest canopy and transported via LDD. Of these, 70 seeds/ha traveled distances in excess of 1 km from the source, a distance too great to serve as a biocontainment zone. The probability of LDD occurrence of transgenic conifer seeds at distances exceeding 1 km approached 100%.

Rising CO2 levels and the fecundity of forest trees

We determined the reproductive response of 19-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) to 4 years of carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment (ambient concentration plus 200 microliters per liter) in an intact forest. After 3 years of CO2 fumigation, trees were twice as likely to be reproductively mature and produced three times as many cones and seeds as trees at ambient CO2 concentration. A disproportionate carbon allocation to reproduction under CO2 enrichment results in trees reaching maturity sooner and at a smaller size. This reproductive response to future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to change loblolly dispersal and recruitment patterns.