Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

A cross-sectional study on factors associated with health seeking behaviour of Malawians aged 15+ years in 2016

Introduction

Health seeking behaviour (HSB) refers to actions taken by individuals who are ill in order to find appropriate remedy. Most studies on HSB have only examined one symptom or covered only a specific geographical location within a country. In this study, we used a representative sample of adults to explore the factors associated with HSB in response to 30 symptoms reported by adult Malawians in 2016.

Methods

We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey dataset. We fitted a multilevel logistic regression model of likelihood of ‘seeking care at a health facility’ using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and reported symptoms entered as a priori variables. We calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and their associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We set the level of statistical significance at P < 0.05.

Results

Of 6909 adults included in the survey, 1907 (29%) reported symptoms during the 2 weeks preceding the survey. Of these, 937 (57%) sought care at a health facility. Adults in urban areas were more likely to seek health care at a health facility than those in rural areas (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.19–2.30, P = 0.003). Females had a higher likelihood of seeking care from health facilities than males (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03–1.59, P = 0.029). Being of higher wealth status was associated with a higher likelihood of seeking care from a health facility (AOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.16–2.16, P = 0.004). Having fever and eye problems were associated with higher likelihood of seeking care at a health facility, while having headache, stomach ache and respiratory tract infections were associated with lower likelihood of seeking care at a health facility.

Conclusion

This study has shown that there is a need to understand and address individual, socioeconomic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and appropriate use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage among the adult population.

Potential impact of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission in Malawi: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 mitigation strategies have been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings due to the potential for widespread disruption to social and economic well-being. Here we predict the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Malawi, quantifying the potential impact of intervention strategies and increases in health system capacity.

METHODS

The infection fatality ratios (IFR) were predicted by adjusting reported IFR for China, accounting for demography, the current prevalence of comorbidities and health system capacity. These estimates were input into an age-structured deterministic model, which simulated the epidemic trajectory with non-pharmaceutical interventions and increases in health system capacity.

FINDINGS

The predicted population-level IFR in Malawi, adjusted for age and comorbidity prevalence, is lower than that estimated for China (0.26%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.69%, compared with 0.60%, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.3% in China); however, the health system constraints increase the predicted IFR to 0.83%, 95% UI 0.49%-1.39%. The interventions implemented in January 2021 could potentially avert 54 400 deaths (95% UI 26 900-97 300) over the course of the epidemic compared with an unmitigated outbreak. Enhanced shielding of people aged ≥60 years could avert 40 200 further deaths (95% UI 25 300-69 700) and halve intensive care unit admissions at the peak of the outbreak. A novel therapeutic agent which reduces mortality by 0.65 and 0.8 for severe and critical cases, respectively, in combination with increasing hospital capacity, could reduce projected mortality to 2.5 deaths per 1000 population (95% UI 1.9-3.6).

CONCLUSION

We find the interventions currently used in Malawi are unlikely to effectively prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission but will have a significant impact on mortality. Increases in health system capacity and the introduction of novel therapeutics are likely to further reduce the projected numbers of deaths.

Children's role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility

SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in all age groups including infants, children, and adolescents. However, the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic is still uncertain. This systematic review of early studies synthesises evidence on the susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the severity and clinical outcomes in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 by children in the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed. Reviewers extracted data from relevant, peer-reviewed studies published up to July 4th 2020 during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak using a standardised form and assessed quality using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. For studies included in the meta-analysis, we used a random effects model to calculate pooled estimates of the proportion of children considered asymptomatic or in a severe or critical state. We identified 2775 potential studies of which 128 studies met our inclusion criteria; data were extracted from 99, which were then quality assessed. Finally, 29 studies were considered for the meta-analysis that included information of symptoms and/or severity, these were further assessed based on patient recruitment. Our pooled estimate of the proportion of test positive children who were asymptomatic was 21.1% (95% CI: 14.0-28.1%), based on 13 included studies, and the proportion of children with severe or critical symptoms was 3.8% (95% CI: 1.5-6.0%), based on 14 included studies. We did not identify any studies designed to assess transmissibility in children and found that susceptibility to infection in children was highly variable across studies. Children's susceptibility to infection and onward transmissibility relative to adults is still unclear and varied widely between studies. However, it is evident that most children experience clinically mild disease or remain asymptomatically infected. More comprehensive contact-tracing studies combined with serosurveys are needed to quantify children's transmissibility relative to adults. With children back in schools, testing regimes and study protocols that will allow us to better understand the role of children in this pandemic are critical.

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

Factors associated with healthcare seeking behaviour for children in Malawi: 2016

OBJECTIVE

To characterise health seeking behaviour (HSB) and determine its predictors amongst children in Malawi in 2016.

METHODS

We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data set. The outcome of interest was HSB, defined as seeking care at a health facility amongst people who reported one or more of a list of possible symptoms given on the questionnaire in the past two weeks. We fitted a multivariate logistic regression model of HSB using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and symptoms entered as a priori variables.

RESULTS

Of 5350 children, 1666 (32%) had symptoms in the past two weeks. Of the 1666, 1008 (61%) sought care at health facility. The children aged 5-14 years were less likely to be taken to health facilities for health care than those aged 0-4 years. Having fever vs. not having fever and having a skin problem vs. not having skin problem were associated with increased likelihood of HSB. Having a headache vs. not having a headache was associated with lower likelihood of accessing care at health facilities (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.26-0.96, P = 0.04). Children from urban areas were more likely to be taken to health facilities for health care (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.17-2.85, P = 0.008), as were children from households with a high wealth status (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.25-2.78, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

There is a need to understand and address individual, socio-economic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage.

Household cost of malaria overdiagnosis in rural Mozambique

Background

It is estimated that over 70% of patients with suspected malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, diagnose and manage their illness at home without referral to a formal health clinic. Of those patients who do attend a formal health clinic, malaria overdiagnosis rates are estimated to range between 30–70%.

Methods

This paper details an observational cohort study documenting the number and cost of repeat consultations as a result of malaria overdiagnosis at two health care providers in a rural district of Mozambique. 535 adults and children with a clinical diagnosis of malaria were enrolled and followed over a 21 day period to assess treatment regimen, symptoms, number and cost of repeat visits to health providers in patients misdiagnosed with malaria compared to those with confirmed malaria (determined by positive bloodfilm reading).

Results

Diagnosis based solely on clinical symptoms overdiagnosed 23% of children (<16y) and 31% of adults with malaria. Symptoms persisted (p = 0.023) and new ones developed (p < 0.001) in more adults than children in the three weeks following initial presentation. Adults overdiagnosed with malaria had more repeat visits (67% v 46%, p = 0.01–0.06) compared to those with true malaria. There was no difference in costs between patients correctly or incorrectly diagnosed with malaria. Median costs over three weeks were $0.28 for those who had one visit and $0.76 for ≥ 3 visits and were proportionally highest among the poorest (p < 0.001)

Conclusion

Overdiagnosis of malaria results in a greater number of healthcare visits and associated cost for adult patients. Additionally, it is clear that the poorest individuals pay significantly more proportionally for their healthcare making it imperative that the treatment they receive is correct in order to prevent wastage of limited economic resources. Thus, investment in accurate malaria diagnosis and appropriate management at primary level is critical for improving health outcomes and reducing poverty.