Missing Black males among preterm births in the US, 1995 to 2019

BACKGROUND

In the US, non-Hispanic (NH) Black birthing persons show a two-fold greater risk of fetal death relative to NH white birthing persons. Since males more than females show a greater risk of fetal death, such loss in utero may affect the sex composition of live births born preterm (PTB; <37 weeks gestational age). We examine US birth data from 1995 to 2019 to determine whether the ratio of male to female preterm (i.e., PTB sex ratios) among NH Black births falls below that of NH whites and Hispanics.

METHODS

We acquired data on all live births in the US from January 1995 to December 2019. We arrayed 63 million live births into 293 "conception cohort" months of which 2,475,928 NH Black, 5,746,953 NH white, and 2,511,450 Hispanic infants were PTB. We used linear regression methods to identify trend and seasonal patterns in PTB sex ratios. We also examined subgroup differences in PTB sex ratios (e.g., advanced maternal ages, twin gestations, and narrower gestational age ranges).

RESULTS

The mean PTB sex ratio for NH Black births over the entire test period (1.06, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.07) is much lower than that for NH white births (1.18, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.19). NH Black PTB sex ratios are especially low for twins and for births to mothers 35 years or older. Only NH white PTB sex ratios show a trend over the test period.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of over 10 million PTBs reveals a persistently low male PTB frequency among NH Black conception cohorts relative to NH white cohorts. Low PTB sex ratios among NH Black births concentrate among subgroups that show an elevated risk of fetal death. PTB sex ratios may serve as an indicator of racial/ethnic and subgroup differences in fetal death, especially among male gestations.

Family cash transfers in childhood and birthing persons and birth outcomes later in life

Much literature in the US documents an intergenerational transmission of birthing person and perinatal morbidity in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. A separate line of work indicates that family cash transfers may improve life chances of low-income families well into adulthood. By exploiting a quasi-random natural experiment of a large family cash transfer among a southeastern American Indian (AI) tribe in rural North Carolina, we examine whether a "perturbation" in socioeconomic status during childhood improves birthing person/perinatal outcomes when they become parents themselves. We acquired birth records on 6805 AI and non-AI infants born from 1995 to 2018. Regression methods to examine effect modification tested whether the birthing person's American Indian (AI) status and exposure to the family cash transfer during their childhood years corresponds with improvements in birthing person and perinatal outcomes. Findings show an increase in age at childbearing (coef: 0.15 years, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05, 0.25) and a decrease in pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI; coef: -0.42, 95% CI: -0.76, -0.09) with increased duration of cash transfer exposure during childhood. The odds of large-for-gestational age at delivery, as well as mean infant birthweight, is also reduced among AI births whose birthing person had relatively longer duration of exposure to the cash transfer. We, however, observe no relation with other birthing person/perinatal outcomes (e.g., tobacco use during pregnancy, preterm birth). In this rural AI population, cash transfers in one generation correspond with improved birthing person and infant health in the next generation.

Preterm births among male and female conception cohorts in France during initial COVID-19 societal restrictions

PURPOSE

A recent meta-analysis finds reduced risk of preterm birth (PTB; <37 weeks gestational age) during the initial stage of COVID-19 in which infection rates remained relatively low but many societies imposed restrictions on movement. None of this work, however, examines sex-specific responses despite much literature on other ambient "shocks" which would predict male sensitivity. We use a conception cohort approach to explore potential sex-specific PTB responses in France, a country which imposed a lockdown in Spring 2020.

METHODS

We applied interrupted time series methods using national data in France for 207 weeks among 1403,284 males and 1341,359 females conceived from 19 Jan 2016 to 6 Jan 2020.

RESULTS

For males in utero, the 1st COVID-19 societal lockdown corresponds with a - 0.60 per 100 conception reduction in PTB cases per week, for 12 consecutive weeks (95% confidence interval [CI]: -.36, -.84). For females in utero, the PTB reduction is smaller (-0.40 reduction per 100 conceptions, for 10 consecutive weeks, 95% CI: -.15, -.61). A formal test of sex differences in the PTB response indicates a stronger reduction in male (vs. female) PTB during the lockdown (p = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Explanations for the counterintuitive reduction in PTB during COVID-19 among cohorts in utero during Spring 2020 should consider mechanisms that disproportionately affect males.

Racial disparities in law enforcement/court-ordered psychiatric inpatient admissions after the 2008 recession: a test of the frustration-aggression-displacement hypothesis

BACKGROUND

Societies under duress may selectively increase the reporting of disordered persons from vulnerable communities to law enforcement. Mentally ill African American males reportedly are perceived as more threatening relative to females and other race/ethnicities. We examine whether law enforcement/court order-requested involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations increased among African American males shortly after ambient economic decline-a widely characterized population stressor.

METHODS

We identified psychiatric inpatient admissions requested by law enforcement/court orders from 2006 to 2011 across four US states (Arizona, California, New York, North Carolina). Our analytic sample comprises 13.1 million psychiatric inpatient admissions across 95 counties over 72 months. We operationalized exposure to economic downturns as percent change in monthly employment in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). We used zero inflated negative binomial and linear fixed effects regression analyses to examine psychiatric inpatient admissions requested by law enforcement/court orders following regional employment decline over a time period that includes the Great Recession of 2008.

FINDINGS

Declines in monthly employment precede by one month a 6% increase in psychiatric hospitalizations requested by law enforcement/court order among African American males (p < 0.05), but not among other race/sex groups. Estimates amount to an excess of 2554 involuntary admissions among African American males statistically attributable to aggregate-level employment decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic downturns may increase involuntary psychiatric commitments among African American males. Our findings underscore the unique vulnerability of racial/ethnic minorities during economic contractions.

Changes in Acute ED Visits by Race/Ethnicity During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic

Emergency department (ED) visits for conditions unrelated to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic decreased during the early pandemic, raising concerns about critically ill patients forgoing care and increasing their risk of adverse outcomes. It is unclear if Hispanic and Black adults, who have a high prevalence of chronic conditions, sought medical assistance for acute emergencies during this time. This study used 2018-2020 ED visit data from the largest safety net hospital in Los Angeles County to estimate ED visit differences for cardiac emergencies, diabetic complications, and strokes, during the first societal lockdown among Black and Hispanic patients using time series analyses. Emergency department visits were lower than the expected levels during the first societal lockdown. However, after the lockdown ended, Black patients experienced a rebound in ED visits while visits for Hispanics remained depressed. Future research could identify barriers Hispanics experienced that contributed to prolonged ED avoidance.

Cannabis Vape Product Sales in California Following CDC's Initial Advisory About Lung Injuries

Introduction: The 2019 outbreak of e-cigarette or vaping product use-associated lung injury (EVALI) is believed to have been caused by vitamin E acetate, an additive used in some cannabis vaporizer products. Previous studies have primarily focused on changes in sales of electronic nicotine delivery systems following the initial advisory issued by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on August 17, 2019. The present study is intended to examine variation by age groups in sales of regulated cannabis vape products in the state of California before, during, and after the outbreak. Methods: Weekly sales revenue of cannabis vape products (from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2020) was obtained from a sample of recreational cannabis retailers licensed in California. An interrupted time series analysis, using AutoRegressive, Integrated, Moving Average methods, was employed to estimate changes in the sales and market share of cannabis vape products in the weeks following the CDC advisory. Results: The total volume of regulated cannabis vape product sales increased substantially over the 3-year study period (2018-2020). Sales and market share of cannabis vape products, however, declined in both young and older adults immediately following the advisory, rebounding to pre-EVALI levels only for the young adults. For sales, the potential EVALI effect following the CDC's advisory equates to an 8.0% and 2.2% decline below expected levels in the older and young adults, respectively. Conclusions: The differential age effect on sales may reflect concerns regarding health effects of cannabis vaping products and greater awareness of the outbreak among older adults. Findings highlight the importance of informing consumers about health risks associated with using cannabis vape products acquired from regulated versus illicit sources.

Antidepressant Prescription Behavior Among Primary Care Clinician Providers After an Interprofessional Primary Care Psychiatric Training Program

Primary care providers (PCPs) are increasingly called upon to screen for and treat depression. However, PCPs often lack the training to diagnose and treat depression. We designed an innovative 12-month evidence and mentorship-based primary care psychiatric training program entitled the University of California, Irvine (UCI) School of Medicine Train New Trainers Primary Care Psychiatry (TNT PCP) Fellowship and examined whether this training impacted clinician prescription rates for antidepressants. We retrieved information on 18,844 patients and 192 PCPs from a publicly insured health program in Southern California receiving care between 2017 and 2021. Of the 192 PCPs, 42 received TNT training and 150 did not. We considered a patient as exposed to the provider's TNT treatment if they received care from a provider after the provider completed the 1-year fellowship. We utilized the number of antidepressant prescriptions per patient, per quarter-year as the dependent variable. Linear regression models controlled for provider characteristics and time trends. Robustness checks included clustering patients by provider identification. After PCPs completed TNT training, "exposed" patients received 0.154 more antidepressant prescriptions per quarter-year relative to expected levels (p < 0.01). Clustering of standard errors by provider characteristics reduced precision of the estimate (p < 0.10) but the direction and magnitude of the results were unchanged. Early results from the UCI TNT PCP Fellowship demonstrate enhanced antidepressant prescription behavior in PCPs who have undergone TNT training. A novel, and relatively low-cost, clinician training program holds the potential to empower PCPs to optimally deliver depression treatment.

A novel approach to estimate the impact of health workforce investments on health outcomes through increased coverage of HIV, TB and malaria services

BACKGROUND

Globally, HIV, TB and malaria account for an estimated three million deaths annually. The Global Fund partnered with the World Health Organization to assist countries with health workforce planning in these areas through the development of an integrated health workforce investment impact tool. Our study illustrates the development of a user-friendly tool (with two MS Excel calculator subcomponents) that computes associations between human resources for health (HRH) investment inputs and reduced morbidity and mortality from HIV, TB, and malaria via increased coverage of effective treatment services.

METHODS

We retrieved from the peer-reviewed literature quantitative estimates of the relation among HRH inputs and HRH employment and productivity. We converted these values to additional full-time-equivalent doctors, nurses and midwives (DNMs). We used log-linear regression to estimate the relation between DNMs and treatment service coverage outcomes for HIV, TB, and malaria. We then retrieved treatment effectiveness parameters from the literature to calculate lives saved due to expanded treatment coverage for HIV, TB, and malaria. After integrating these estimates into the tool, we piloted it in four countries.

RESULTS

In most countries with a considerable burden of HIV, TB, and malaria, the health workforce investments include a mix of pre-service education, full remuneration of new hires, various forms of incentives and in-service training. These investments were associated with elevated HIV, TB and malaria treatment service coverage and additional lives saved. The country case studies we developed in addition, indicate the feasibility and utility of the tool for a variety of international and local actors interested in HRH planning.

CONCLUSIONS

The modelled estimates developed for illustrative purposes and tested through country case studies suggest that HRH investments result in lives saved across HIV, TB, and malaria. Furthermore, findings show that attainment of high targets of specific treatment coverage indicators would require a substantially greater health workforce than what is currently available in most LMICs. The open access tool can assist with future HRH planning efforts, particularly in LMICs.

Association of the 2021 Child Tax Credit Advance Payments With Low Birth Weight in the US

IMPORTANCE

Infants and pregnant people in the US fare worse on almost all health measures compared with those in peer nations. Families in the US are more likely to live in poverty and have a less generous social safety net, which has generated debate over the contribution of economic conditions to this disparity.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between temporary increases in income during pregnancy through the 2021 expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) and birth outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study applied a comparison-population, interrupted time series design to data from US birth certificates (January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2021) to test whether the log odds of low birth weight (LBW) among monthly cohorts of births exposed to the CTC would coincide with a decreased incidence of LBW. All singleton live births to US residents aged 15 to 49 years with available data were included.

EXPOSURE

Monthly birth cohorts exposed to the CTC were defined as those born to parous people during the CTC advance payment period from July through December 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was the natural logarithm of the odds of LBW (<2500 g) among monthly birth cohorts.

RESULTS

Among included births (n = 28 866 466), 61.2% were to parous people, the majority were to people aged 20 to 39 years (91.7%), and 6.5% were born LBW. The odds of LBW increased above expected values in 5 of the 6 months of the CTC payments (range of increases, 3.3%-5.4% across the 5 months). The outlier-adjusted odds of LBW increased, on average, by 4.2% (95% CI, 2.7%-5.7%) among the monthly birth cohorts exposed to the CTC.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found that the odds of LBW among birth cohorts exposed to the CTC increased above expected values in 5 of the 6 months of the CTC advance payments. Additional research is needed to evaluate rival explanations for this increase in LBW among births exposed to the CTC payments.

A novel indicator of selection in utero

Background and objectives

Selection in utero predicts that population stressors raise the standard for how quickly fetuses must grow to avoid spontaneous abortion. Tests of this prediction must use indirect indicators of fetal loss in birth cohorts because vital statistics systems typically register fetal deaths at the 20th week of gestation or later, well after most have occurred. We argue that tests of selection in utero would make greater progress if researchers adopted an indicator of selection against slow-growing fetuses that followed from theory, allowed sex-specific tests and used readily available data. We propose such an indicator and assess its validity as a dependent variable by comparing its values among monthly birth cohorts before, and during, the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden.

Methodology

We apply Box-Jenkins methods to 50 pre-pandemic birth cohorts (i.e., December 2016 through January 2020) and use the resulting transfer functions to predict counterfactual values in our suggested indicator for selection for ten subsequent birth cohorts beginning in February 2020. We then plot all 60 residual values as well as their 95% detection interval. If birth cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic lost more slow-growing fetuses than expected from history, more than one of the last 10 (i.e. pandemic-exposed) residuals would fall below the detection interval.

Results

Four of the last 10 residuals of our indicator for males and for females fell below the 95% detection interval.

Conclusions and implications

Consistent with selection in utero, Swedish birth cohorts in gestation at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic included fewer than expected infants who grew slowly in utero.

Mental health symptoms following the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol

On January 6, 2021, rioters stormed the US Capitol to overturn the Congressional certification of Joseph Biden as the 46th president of the United States. In previous work, the symbolic dis/empowerment framework, as a result of sociopolitical context, has influenced health outcomes in certain sub-populations. We examine whether the Capitol Riot corresponds with an increase in mental health symptoms and explore whether this relation differs by individual political party affiliation and/or state electoral college victory. We utilize the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative panel of adults, between March 10, 2020-July 11, 2021. Using fixed effects linear regression, we find a modest increase above expected levels in mental health symptoms immediately following the Capitol Riot. This result holds for Democrats overall, Democrats in Biden states, and when restricting analyses to only states that voted for Biden (or separately, for Trump). Democrats show the greatest increase of mental health symptoms following the Capital Riot, supporting the symbolic dis/empowerment framework as well as notions of political polarization and allegiance. Social and political events of national importance may adversely affect mental health of specific subpopulations.

Excess Injury Mortality in Washington State During the 2021 Heat Wave

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

Under global warming scenarios, heat waves of this magnitude will become much more common. Adaptation and planning efforts are needed to protect residents of the historically temperate Pacific Northwest for a range of health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(6):657-660. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307269).

New York City's Stop, Question, and Frisk Policy and Psychiatric Emergencies among Black Americans

Under the Stop, Question, and Frisk (SQF) policy, New York City (NYC) police stopped Black Americans at more than twice the rate of non-Hispanic whites, after controlling for arrests and precinct differences. We examined whether police stops of Black Americans during SQF correspond positively with psychiatric emergency department (ED) visits among Black residents in NYC. We utilized as the exposure all police stops, stops including frisking, and stops including use of force among Black Americans in NYC between 2006 and 2015 from the New York City Police Department's New York City-Stop, Question, and Frisk database. We examined 938,356 outpatient psychiatric ED visits among Black Americans in NYC between 2006 and 2015 from the Statewide Emergency Department Database (SEDD). We applied Box-Jenkins time-series methods to control for monthly temporal patterns. Results indicate that all stops, frisking, and use of force of Black residents correspond with increased psychiatric ED visits among Black Americans in NYC (all stops-coef = 0.024, 95%CI = 0.006, 0.043; frisking-coef = 0.048, 95%CI = 0.015, 0.080; use of force-coef = 0.109, 95%CI = 0.028, 0.190). Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in police stops equates to a 2.72% increase in psychiatric ED visits among Black residents in NYC. Use of force may have the greatest mental health consequences due to perceived threats of physical violence or bodily harm to other members of the targeted group. Racially biased and unconstitutional police encounters may have acute mental health implications for the broader Black community not directly involved in the encounter itself.

Selection in utero against male twins in the United States early in the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

We aim to contribute to the literature reporting tests of selection in utero. The theory of reproductive suppression predicts that natural selection would conserve mechanisms, referred to collectively as selection in utero, that spontaneously abort fetuses unlikely to thrive as infants in the prevailing environment. Tests of this prediction include reports that women give birth to fewer than expected male twins, historically among the frailest of infants, during stressful times. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in Spring 2020 demonstrably stressed the population. We test the hypothesis that conception cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic in the United States yielded fewer than expected live male twin births.

METHODS

We retrieved deidentified data on the universe of live births in the United States from the National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate records. We applied Box-Jenkins time-series methods to the twin secondary sex ratio computed for 77 monthly conception cohorts spanning August 2013 to December 2019 to detect outlying cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic.

RESULTS

The twin secondary sex ratio fell below expected values in three conception cohorts (i.e., July, September, and October 2019, all p < .05) exposed in utero to the onset of the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results add to prior findings consistent with selection in utero. The role of selection in utero in shaping the characteristics of live births cohorts, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, warrants further scrutiny.

Exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic and early, moderate and overall preterm births in the United States: A conception cohort approach

BACKGROUND

The United States (US) data suggest fewer-than-expected preterm births in 2020, but no study has examined the impact of exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic at different points in gestation on preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to determine-among cohorts exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic-whether observed counts of overall, early and moderately preterm birth fell outside the expected range.

METHODS

We used de-identified, cross-sectional, national birth certificate data from 2014 to 2020. We used month and year of birth and gestational age to estimate month of conception for birth. We calculated the count of overall (<37 weeks gestation), early (<33 weeks gestation) and moderately (33 to <37 weeks gestation) preterm birth by month of conception. We employed time series methods to estimate expected counts of preterm birth for exposed conception cohorts and identified cohorts for whom the observed counts of preterm birth fell outside the 95% detection interval of the expected value.

RESULTS

Among the 23,731,146 births in our study, the mean prevalence of preterm birth among monthly conception cohorts was 9.7 per 100 live births. Gestations conceived in July, August or December of 2019-that is exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic in the first or third trimester-yielded approximately 3245 fewer moderately preterm and 3627 fewer overall preterm births than the expected values for moderate and overall preterm. Gestations conceived in August and October of 2019-that is exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic in the late second to third trimester-produced approximately 498 fewer early preterm births than the expected count for early preterm.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic may have promoted longer gestation among close-to-term pregnancies, reduced risk of later preterm delivery among gestations exposed in the first trimester or induced selective loss of gestations.

Stress/depression across the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Global estimates suggest strained mental health during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the lack of nationally representative and longitudinal data with clinically validated measures limits knowledge longer into the pandemic.

METHODS

Data from 10 rounds of nationally representative surveys from Denmark tracked trends in risk of stress/depression from just before the first lockdown and through to April 2022. We focused on age groups and men and women in different living arrangements and controlled for seasonality in mental health that could otherwise be spuriously related to pandemic intensity.

RESULTS

Prior to first lockdown, we observed a "parent gap", which closed with the first lockdown. Instead, a gender gap materialized, with women experiencing higher risks than men-and higher than levels predating first lockdown. Older respondents (+ 70 years) experienced increasing risks of stress/depression early in the pandemic, while all other groups experienced decreases. But longer into the pandemic, risks increased for all age groups and reached (and sometimes exceeded) levels from before first lockdown.

CONCLUSION

Denmark had low infection rates throughout most of the pandemic, low mortality rates across the entire pandemic, and offered financial aid packages to curb financial strains. Despite this circumstance, initial improvements to mental health during the first lockdown in Denmark were short-lived. Two years of pandemic societal restrictions correspond with deteriorating mental health, as well as a change from a parenthood gap in mental health before first lockdown to a gender gap two years into the pandemic.

Psychiatric Emergencies in Los Angeles County During, and After, Initial COVID-19 Societal Restrictions: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Emergency department (ED) visits for psychiatric care in the US reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work, however, does not control for strong temporal patterning in visits before the pandemic and does not examine a potential "rebound" in demand for psychiatric care following the relaxation of initial societal restrictions. Here, we examine COVID-19-related perturbations in psychiatric care during and after the 1st stage of societal restrictions in the largest safety-net hospital in Los Angeles. We retrieved psychiatric ED visit data (98,888 total over 156 weeks, Jan 2018 to Dec 2020) from Los Angeles County + USC Medical Center. We applied interrupted time series methods to identify and control for autocorrelation in psychiatric ED visits before examining their relation with the 1st stage of societal restrictions (i.e., March 13 to May 8, 2020), as well as the subsequent "rebound" period of relaxed restrictions (i.e., after May 8, 2020). Psychiatric ED visits fell by 78.13 per week (i.e., 12%) during the 1st stage of societal restrictions (SD = 23.99, p < 0.01). Reductions in ED visits for alcohol use, substance use, and (to a lesser extent) anxiety disorders accounted for the overall decline. After the 1st stage of societal restrictions, however, we observe no "rebound" above expected values in psychiatric ED visits overall (coef = - 16.89, SD = 20.58, p = 0.41) or by diagnostic subtype. This pattern of results does not support speculation that, at the population level, foregoing ED care during initial societal restrictions subsequently induced a psychiatric "pandemic" of urgent visits.

Job loss and fetal growth restriction: identification of critical trimesters of exposure

PURPOSE

Previous research suggests that job loss in a household during pregnancy may perturb fetal growth. However, this work often cannot rule out unmeasured confounding due to selection into job loss. Recent work using data on exogenous job loss (due to a plant closure) finds that a father's unexpected job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low weight birth. Using a unique set of linked registries in Denmark, we build on this work and examine whether associations between a father's unexpected job loss and low birthweight differ by trimester of in utero exposure. We additionally examine trimester-specific associations of job loss with small-for-gestational-age, a proxy for restricted fetal growth, which may cause low birthweight.

METHODS

We apply a sibling control design to over 1.4 million live births in Denmark, 1980 to 2017, to examine whether this plausibly exogenous form of job loss corresponds with increased risk of low weight or small-for-gestational-age births, depending on the timing of displacement in the first, second, or third trimester.

RESULTS

Results indicate an elevated risk of low birthweight (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.62) and small-for-gestational-age (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) among gestations exposed to job loss in the second trimester of pregnancy. Sensitivity analyses using continuous outcome measures (e.g., birthweight in grams, birthweight for gestational age percentile) and maternal fixed effects analyses produce substantively similar inference.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the notion that unexpected job loss may affect fetal growth and that the second trimester in particular appears sensitive to this external stressor.

COVID-19 case counts and COVID-19 related Emergency Department visits: differences by immigration status, March-December 2020

Background

Undocumented immigrants face barriers to health care access, which may have been exacerbated during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. We test whether undocumented immigrants in Los Angeles County accessed COVID-19 related medical care by examining their Emergency Department (ED) patterns through high and low periods of COVID-19 infection. If undocumented immigrants were underutilizing or foregoing health care, we expect null or weaker associations between COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 related ED visits relative to Medi-Cal patients.

Methods

We analyzed all ED visits to the Los Angeles County + University of Southern California (LAC + USC) Medical Center between March - December 2020 (n = 85,387). We conducted logistic regressions with Los Angeles County weekly COVID-19 case counts as our main independent variable and an interaction between case counts and immigration status, stratified by age (over and under 65 years).

Results

We found that undocumented immigrants under 65 years old had a higher odds for a COVID-19 related ED visit compared to Medi-Cal patients and that both undocumented and Medi-Cal patients had higher odds of a COVID-19 related ED visit as COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County increased. For patients over 65 years, Medi-Cal patients actually had a weaker association between ED visits and county COVID-19 counts; as COVID-19 case counts rose, the odds of a COVID-19 related ED visit increased for the undocumented patients.

Conclusion

While the overall likelihood of undocumented patients having a COVID-19 related ED visit varies compared to Medi-Cal patients - for younger patients, the odds is higher; for older patients, the odds is lower - it does not appear that undocumented patients underutilized the ED during the early COVID-19 pandemic relative to Medi-Cal patients. The ED may be a viable source of contact for this high-risk population for future outreach.

Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings before the 2020-21 winter surge of COVID-19 in the United States

Objective

COVID-19 in the US disproportionately affected, and continues to affect, racial/ethnic minorities. Although risky social gatherings for Thanksgiving and Christmas in 2020 contributed substantially to the "winter surge" in cases and deaths, no research examines potential racial/ethnic differences in behaviors related to holiday gatherings.

Design

We used the Understanding America Survey (UAS) - Coronavirus Tracking, a nationally representative study of US adults, to examine associations between race/ethnicity and risky holiday gathering behavior (i.e., gathering with non-household members and with little to no social distancing or mask-wearing). We applied logistic regression models to examine racial/ethnic and socioeconomic differences in risky holiday gatherings while accounting for a person's pre-holiday perception of COVID-19 risk as well as related behaviors.

Results

Non-Hispanic Black adults showed a lower prevalence of attending a risky Thanksgiving gathering than did non-Hispanic White adults (15 % vs 43 %, p <.001). The magnitude of this racial/ethnic difference was also found for risky Christmas gatherings. Hispanic and "Other" race/ethnicity adults also appeared less likely than non-Hispanic whites to attend a risky holiday gathering. Higher-income households attended a risky holiday gathering more frequently, when compared with lower income households (p <.001). Logistic regression results, which controlled for other COVID-19 related behaviors, support these main findings.

Conclusions

Racial/ethnic minorities, and non-Hispanic Black adults in particular, appeared least likely to have engaged in risky holiday gatherings in late 2020. If replicated, our findings appear consistent with the notion that behavioral modification among racial/ethnic minorities may have reduced the intensity of the 2020/21 "winter surge" in COVID-19.

Emergency Department Utilization Among Undocumented Latino Patients During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objective

To determine whether Latino undocumented immigrants had a steeper decline in Emergency Department (ED) utilization compared to Latino Medi-Cal patients in a Los Angeles safety-net hospital, March 13, 2020, to May 8, 2020.

Study Design

The data were extracted from patient medical records for ED visits at LAC + USC Medical Center from January 2018 to September 2020. We analyzed weekly ED encounters among undocumented Latino patients in the nine-week period after COVID was declared a national emergency. We applied time-series routines to identify and remove autocorrelation in ED encounters before examining its relation with the COVID-19 pandemic. We included Latino patients 18 years of age and older who were either on restricted or full-scope Medi-Cal (n = 230,195).

Results

All low-income Latino patients, regardless of immigration status, experienced a significant decline in ED utilization during the first nine weeks of the pandemic. Undocumented patients, however, experienced an even steeper decline. ED visits for this group fall below expected levels between March 13, 2020, and May 8, 2020 (coef. =  − 38.67; 95% CI =  − 71.71, − 5.63). When applied to the weekly mean of ED visits, this translates to a 10% reduction below expected levels in ED visits during this time period.

Conclusion

Undocumented immigrants’ health care utilization was influenced by external events that occurred early in the pandemic, such as strict stay-at-home orders and the public charge rule change. Health care institutions and local policy efforts could work to ensure that hospitals are safer spaces for undocumented immigrants to receive care without immigration concerns.

Patterned Outcomes, Unpatterned Counterfactuals, and Spurious Results: Perinatal Health Outcomes Following COVID-19

The epidemiologic literature estimating the indirect or secondary effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on pregnant people and gestation continues to grow. Our assessment of this scholarship, however, leads us to suspect that the methods most commonly used may lead researchers to spurious inferences. This suspicion arises because the methods do not account for temporal patterning in perinatal outcomes when deriving counterfactuals, or estimates of the outcomes had the pandemic not occurred. We illustrate the problem in 2 ways. First, using monthly data from US birth certificates, we describe temporal patterning in 5 commonly used perinatal outcomes. Notably, for all but 1 outcome, temporal patterns appear more complex than much of the emerging literature assumes. Second, using data from France, we show that using counterfactuals that ignore this complexity produces spurious results. We recommend that subsequent investigations on COVID-19 and other perturbations use widely available time-series methods to derive counterfactuals that account for strong temporal patterning in perinatal outcomes.

State lockdown policies, mental health symptoms, and using substances

Objective

Previous literature finds an increase in depressive symptoms, substance use, and suicidal ideation following the COVID-19 pandemic in the US – suicides do not appear to increase. We examine whether 1) state lockdown policies in the US precede an increase in mental health symptoms; and 2) the extent to which using substances amplifies or attenuates the relation.

Methods

We specified, as our exposure variable, the timing of state-level lockdown orders. We used, as the outcome variable, the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4) that measures anxiety and depression symptoms. We utilized the Understanding America Study (UAS), a nationally representative sample of 7,597 adults across 50 states in the US, surveyed biweekly between March 10, 2020 and November 11, 2020. Linear fixed effect analyses controlled for time-invariant individual factors, as well as employment status, household income, and previous mental health diagnosis.

Results

Regression results indicate an increase in PHQ-4 scores of approximately 1.70 during lockdown, relative to no lockdown (p < 0.05). Relative to no lockdown, an increase in alcohol use corresponds with a 0.08 unit decrease in PHQ-4 scores during lockdown (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

State lockdown policies precede greater mental health symptoms. Increases in consuming alcohol attenuates the relation between state lockdown policies and mental health symptoms. Results may portend greater addiction following the pandemic warranting further investigation into utilization of substance use treatment.

Projecting health labor market dynamics for a health system in transition: planning for a resilient health workforce in Saudi Arabia

Background

Health workforce planning is critical for health systems to safeguard the ability to afford, train, recruit, and retain the appropriate number and mix of health workers. This balance is especially important when macroeconomic structures are also reforming. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is moving toward greater diversification, privatization, and resiliency; health sectorreform is a key pillar of this transition.

Methods

We used the Ministry of Health Yearbook data on the number of workers and health expenditures from 2007 to 2018 and projected health labor market supply and demand of workers through 2030, evaluated the potential shortages and surpluses, and simulated different policy scenarios to identify relevant interventions. We further focused on projections for health workers who are Saudi nationals and health worker demand within the public sector (versus the private sector) to inform national objectives of reducing dependency on foreign workers and better deploying public sector resources.

Results

We projected the overall health labor market to demand 9.07 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (356,514) in 2030; the public sector will account for approximately 67% of this overall demand. Compared to a projected supply of 10.16 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (399,354), we estimated an overall modest surplus of about 42,840 physicians and nurses in 2030. However, only about 17% of these workers are estimated to be Saudi nationals, for whom there will be a demand shortage of 287,895 workers. Among policy scenarios considered, increasing work hours had the largest effect on reducing shortages of Saudi workers, followed by bridge programs for training more nurses. Government resources can also be redirected to supporting more Saudi nurses while still ensuring adequate numbers of physicians to meet service delivery goals in 2030.

Conclusion

Despite projected overall balance in the labor market for health workers in 2030, without policy interventions, severe gaps in the Saudi workforce will persist and limit progress toward health system resiliency in Saudi Arabia. Both supply- and demand-side policy interventions should be considered, prioritizing those that increase productivity among Saudi health workers, enhance training for nurses, and strategically redeploy financial resources toward employing these workers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-021-00747-8.

Birth outcomes following unexpected job loss: a matched-sibling design

BACKGROUND

Research documents social and economic antecedents of adverse birth outcomes, which may include involuntary job loss. Previous work on job loss and adverse birth outcomes, however, lacks high-quality individual data on, and variation in, plausibly exogenous job loss during pregnancy and therefore cannot rule out strong confounding.

METHODS

We analysed unique linked registries in Denmark, from 1980 to 2017, to examine whether a father's involuntary job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low-weight (i.e. <2500 grams) and/or preterm (i.e. <37 weeks of gestational age) birth. We applied a matched-sibling design to 743 574 sibling pairs.

RESULTS

Results indicate an increased risk of a low-weight birth among infants exposed in utero to fathers' unexpected job loss [odds ratio (OR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.75]. Sex-specific analyses show that this result holds for males (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.53) but not females (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.91). We find no relation with preterm birth.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the inference that a father's unexpected job loss adversely affects the course of pregnancy, especially among males exposed in utero.

Child Undernutrition following the Introduction of a Large-Scale Toilet Construction Campaign in India

BACKGROUND

Lack of toilets and the widespread practice of open defecation may contribute to India's large burden of child undernutrition.

OBJECTIVES

We examine whether a large national sanitation campaign launched in 2014, the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), precedes a reduction in stunting and wasting among under 5-y-old (u5) children in India.

METHODS

In this observational study, we used district-level data from before (2013-2014) and after (2015-2016) SBM from 3 national surveys to derive, as our outcomes, the percentage of u5 children per district who are stunted and wasted. We defined our exposures as 1) binary indicator of SBM and 2) percentage of households with toilets per district. Our analytic sample comprised nearly all 640 Indian districts (with ∼1200 rural/urban divisions per district per time point). Linear regression analyses controlled for baseline differences in districts, linear time trends by state, and relevant covariates.

RESULTS

Relative to pre-SBM, u5 stunting declines by 0.06% (95% CI: -0.10, -0.01; P = 0.009) with every percentage increase in households with toilets post-SBM. Rural regions and districts with higher pre-SBM toilet availability show greater decline in u5 stunting post-SBM.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in toilet availability on a national scale, precipitated by the SBM sanitation campaign, is associated with a reduction in undernutrition among u5 children in India over the early phase of the campaign.

Cohort Selection In Utero against Male Twins and Childhood Cancers: A Population-Based Register Study

BACKGROUND

Cancer ranks as the second leading cause of death among children ages 1 to 14 years in the United States. Previous research finds that strong cohort selection in utero against males precedes a reduction in live-born males considered frail. We examine whether such cohort selection in utero may similarly affect the frequency of childhood cancers among male live births.

METHODS

We examined 1,368 childhood cancers among males born in Sweden over 144 months, from January 1990 to December 2001, and followed to age 15 in the Swedish Cancer Registry. We retrieved the count of male twins by birth month from the Swedish Birth Registry. We applied autoregressive, integrated, moving average time-series methods to identify and control for temporal patterns in monthly childhood cancers and to evaluate robustness of results.

RESULTS

Fewer childhood cancers occur among monthly male birth cohorts with elevated selection in utero (i.e., a low count of live-born male twins). This association appears in the concurrent month (coef = 0.04; 95% CI, 0.001-0.079) as well as in the following month in which most births from the twin's conception cohort are "scheduled" to be born (coef = 0.055; 95% CI, 0.017-0.094).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated cohort selection in utero may reduce the number of frail male gestations that would otherwise have survived to birth and received a cancer diagnosis during childhood.

IMPACT

This novel result warrants further investigation of prenatal exposures, including those at the population level, that may induce cohort selection in utero for some cancer types but not others.

Stillbirth as left truncation for early neonatal death in California, 1989-2015: a time-series study

BACKGROUND

Some scholars posit that attempts to avert stillbirth among extremely preterm gestations may result in a live birth but an early neonatal death. The literature, however, reports no empirical test of this potential form of left truncation. We examine whether annual cohorts delivered at extremely preterm gestational ages show an inverse correlation between their incidence of stillbirth and early neonatal death.

METHODS

We retrieved live birth and infant death information from the California Linked Birth and Infant Death Cohort Files for years 1989 to 2015. We defined the extremely preterm period as delivery from 22 to < 28 weeks of gestation and early neonatal death as infant death at less than 7 days of life. We calculated proportions of stillbirth and early neonatal death separately by cohort year, race/ethnicity, and sex. Our correlational analysis controlled for well-documented declines in neonatal mortality over time.

RESULTS

California reported 89,276 extremely preterm deliveries (live births and stillbirths) to Hispanic, non-Hispanic (NH) Black, and NH white mothers from 1989 to 2015. Findings indicate an inverse correlation between stillbirth and early neonatal death in the same cohort year (coefficient: -0.27, 95% CI of - 0.11; - 0.42). Results remain robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the notion that cohorts with an elevated risk of stillbirth also show a reduced risk of early neonatal death among extremely preterm deliveries. Results add to the evidence base that selection in utero may influence the survival characteristics of live-born cohorts.

Community antibiotic prescribing for children in France from 2015 to 2017: a cross-sectional national study

OBJECTIVES

To assess recent community antibiotic prescribing for French children and identify areas of potential improvement.

METHODS

We analysed 221 768 paediatric (<15 years) visits in a national sample of 680 French GPs and 70 community paediatricians (IQVIA's EPPM database), from March 2015 to February 2017, excluding well-child visits. We calculated antibiotic prescription rates per 100 visits, separately for GPs and paediatricians. For respiratory tract infections (RTIs), we described broad-spectrum antibiotic use and duration of treatment. We used Poisson regression to identify factors associated with antibiotic prescribing.

RESULTS

GPs prescribed more antibiotics than paediatricians [prescription rate 26.1 (95% CI 25.9-26.3) versus 21.6 (95% CI 21.0-22.2) per 100 visits, respectively; P < 0.0001]. RTIs accounted for more than 80% of antibiotic prescriptions, with presumed viral RTIs being responsible for 40.8% and 23.6% of all antibiotic prescriptions by GPs and paediatricians, respectively. For RTIs, antibiotic prescription rates per 100 visits were: otitis, 68.1 and 79.8; pharyngitis, 67.3 and 53.3; sinusitis, 67.9 and 77.3; pneumonia, 80.0 and 99.2; bronchitis, 65.2 and 47.3; common cold, 21.7 and 11.6; bronchiolitis 31.6 and 20.1; and other presumed viral RTIs, 24.1 and 11.0, for GPs and paediatricians, respectively. For RTIs, GPs prescribed more broad-spectrum antibiotics [49.8% (95% CI 49.3-50.3) versus 35.6% (95% CI 34.1-37.1), P < 0.0001] and antibiotic courses of similar duration (P = 0.21). After adjustment for diagnosis, antibiotic prescription rates were not associated with season and patient age, but were significantly higher among GPs aged ≥50 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Future antibiotic stewardship campaigns should target presumed viral RTIs, broad-spectrum antibiotic use and GPs aged ≥50 years.

Monitoring outpatient antibiotic utilization using reimbursement and retail sales data: a population-based comparison in France, 2012-17

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether a retail sales database could be used to monitor antibiotic utilization in the outpatient setting at the national level.

METHODS

We extracted 2012-17 outpatient antibiotic extrapolated retail sales (IQVIA's Xponent) and reimbursement data from the National Health Insurance (SNDS) in metropolitan France. We compared estimates of antibiotic use and consumption [number of antibiotic drug deliveries (DrID) and defined daily doses (DID) per 1000 inhabitants per day]. We relied on relative differences, Pearson's r statistics and time series using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling to study: (i) differences in point estimates, (ii) correlation, and (iii) consistency in time trends between Xponent and SNDS. The analysis was conducted overall and in subgroups (age groups, therapeutic classes, major antimicrobial agents and regions).

RESULTS

We analysed approximately 377 million antibiotic drug deliveries, comprising nearly 3.4 billion DDDs. Overall, Xponent slightly overestimated SNDS point estimates with yearly relative differences of +3.5% for DrID and +3.3% for DID. Peaks in relative differences were observed for July and August months. Relative differences were <5% in most subgroups, except for fosfomycin and three French regions. Overall and across most subgroups, the correlation between Xponent and SNDS monthly aggregated estimates was almost perfect (r ≥ 0.992 for all subgroups, except for one region). ARIMA modelling showed high consistency between Xponent's and SDNS's DrID time series, but detected timepoints where the series significantly diverged.

CONCLUSIONS

IQVIA's Xponent and SNDS data were highly consistent. Xponent database seems suitable for monitoring outpatient antibiotic utilization in France.

Risk of stress/depression and functional impairment in Denmark immediately following a COVID-19 shutdown

Background

Existing estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 burden on mental wellbeing come from countries with high mortality rates. This study therefore aimed to investigate the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown (March–April 2020) on risk for stress/depression and functional impairment in a representative sample of adult individuals in Denmark, which had lower infection rates, and whether the impact of lockdown was heterogeneous across living situation.

Methods

Using a representative, randomly drawn sample from the complete Danish adult population interviewed in March 2 to April 13, 2020 (n = 2836) and again in July 2020 (n = 1526, 54% retention rate), we study how the imposed lockdown announced March 11 following the onset of the first Danish wave of COVID-19 infections affected mental wellbeing. We use the World Health Organization Five Well-being Index (WHO-5) and the Work and Social Adjustment Scale (WSAS) to capture risk for stress/depression (WHO-5 < 50) and functional impairment (WSAS > 10). Using covariate adjusted ordinary least squares linear probability models and exploiting variation in the timing of responses occurring just before and just after the introduction of lockdown, we compare respondents before lockdown to respondents that answered during lockdown, as well as to answers in re-interviews in July.

Results

In our fully controlled models, we find reduced depressive symptoms among adults immediately after the shutdown, concentrated in adults with children living at home (−.089, p < .01 (from pre lockdown baseline .273)). Measures of functional impairment also declined immediately after the March shutdown among adults with children living at home (−.066, p < .05 (from pre lockdown baseline .150)). Impairment intensified for the entire sample between March and July (+.199, p < .001 (from pre lockdown baseline .248)), but depressive symptoms remained at lower rate in July (−.033, p < .05 (from pre lockdown baseline .332).

Conclusions

Findings in Denmark indicate that living with children at home may have, in the short term, buffered the potential mental health sequelae of the COVID-19 shutdown.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11020-3.

Characteristics associated with downward residential mobility among birthing persons in California

BACKGROUND

Substantial research documents health consequences of neighborhood disadvantage. Patterns of residential mobility that differ by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) may sort non-Hispanic (NH) Black and low-SES families into disadvantaged neighborhoods. In this study, we leverage a sibling-linked dataset to track residential mobility among birthing persons between pregnancies and investigate baseline characteristics associated with downward mobility, including race/ethnicity, SES, and pre-existing health conditions.

METHODS

We used a probabilistic linkage strategy to identify births to the same person between 2007 and 2015 (n = 624,222) and categorized downward residential mobility by quartile-level increases in neighborhood disadvantage. We defined strong downward mobility as a move from a neighborhood with very low (quartile 1) to very high (quartile 4) disadvantage and estimated the logit (i.e., log-odds) of strong downward mobility as a function of racial/ethnic, sociodemographic, and health characteristics of the birthing person and their first birth. We further explored the role of neighborhood housing affordability by examining changes in affordability from first to second birth by race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

NH Black birthing persons show an over three-fold increased odds of strong downward mobility relative to NH white birthing persons (OR = 3.34, CI: 2.91, 3.84). To a lesser extent, Hispanic race/ethnicity, WIC receipt, low educational attainment, obesity, and infant preterm birth (PTB) also predict strong downward mobility. Examination of changes in neighborhood affordability indicate that over half of NH Black birthing persons move to a more affordable neighborhood, compared to less than a quarter of NH white birthing persons, before the birth of their second child. Results remain consistent across outcomes, measures of neighborhood SES, and modified log-Poisson models.

CONCLUSION

We find an elevated risk of strong downward mobility among NH Black and low-SES birthing persons. Future research may identify other factors (e.g., housing affordability) that generate downward residential mobility to identify interventions that promote neighborhood equity.

A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA.

METHODS

We constructed an epidemiologic "needs-based" model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns.

RESULTS

When projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.

Sildenafil and suicide in Sweden

Much theory asserts that sexual intimacy sustains mental health. Experimental tests of such theory remain rare and have not provided compelling evidence because ethical, practical, and cultural constraints bias samples and results. An epidemiologic approach would, therefore, seem indicated given the rigor the discipline brings to quasi-experimental research. For reasons that remain unclear, however, epidemiologist have largely ignored such theory despite the plausibility of the processes implicated, which engender, for example, happiness, feelings of belonging and self-worth, and protection against depression. We use an intent-to-treat design, implemented via interrupted time-series methods, to test the hypothesis that the monthly incidence of suicide, a societally important distal measure of mental health in a population, decreased among Swedish men aged 50–59 after July 2013 when patent rights to sildenafil (i.e., Viagra) ceased, prices fell, and its use increased dramatically. The test uses 102 pre, and 18 post, price-drop months. 65 fewer suicides than expected occurred among men aged 50–59 over test months following the lowering of sildenafil prices. Our findings could not arise from shared trends or seasonality, biased samples, or reverse causation. Our results would appear by chance fewer than once in 10,000 experiments. Our findings align with theory indicating that sexual intimacy reinforces mental health. Using suicide as our distal measure of mental health further implies that public health programming intended to address the drivers of self-destructive behavior should reduce barriers to intimacy in the middle-aged populations.

Estimated seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among adults in Orange County, California

Clinic-based estimates of SARS-CoV-2 may considerably underestimate the total number of infections. Access to testing in the US has been heterogeneous and symptoms vary widely in infected persons. Public health surveillance efforts and metrics are therefore hampered by underreporting. We set out to provide a minimally biased estimate of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among adults for a large and diverse county (Orange County, CA, population 3.2 million). We implemented a surveillance study that minimizes response bias by recruiting adults to answer a survey without knowledge of later being offered SARS-CoV-2 test. Several methodologies were used to retrieve a population-representative sample. Participants (n = 2979) visited one of 11 drive-thru test sites from July 10th to August 16th, 2020 (or received an in-home visit) to provide a finger pin-prick sample. We applied a robust SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Microarray technology, which has superior measurement validity relative to FDA-approved tests. Participants include a broad age, gender, racial/ethnic, and income representation. Adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 11.5% (95% CI: 10.5-12.4%). Formal bias analyses produced similar results. Prevalence was elevated among Hispanics (vs. other non-Hispanic: prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.47, 95% CI 1.22-1.78) and household income < $50,000 (vs. > $100,000: PR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.79). Results from a diverse population using a highly specific and sensitive microarray indicate a SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of ~ 12 percent. This population-based seroprevalence is seven-fold greater than that using official County statistics. In this region, SARS-CoV-2 also disproportionately affects Hispanic and low-income adults.

Green mobility and obesity risk: A longitudinal analysis in California

Previous work reports an inverse association between neighborhood greenness and obesity. Limitations of this work, which relies largely on cross-sectional data, include that studies often lack control for unmeasured genetic and sociodemographic factors that may confound associations, and cannot disentangle temporal order between neighborhood greenness and obesity. We move beyond a cross-sectional approach and leverage a longitudinal sibling-linked dataset with health, residential, and demographic information on women with two births in California between 2007 and 2015 (N = 552,929). We used a sibling comparison design to control for unmeasured stable characteristics of women and tested whether a positive change in neighborhood greenness (i.e., "upward green mobility") precedes a reduction in obesity risk. Models also adjusted for baseline obesity risk and time-varying individual- and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. As hypothesized, we find that upward green mobility varies inversely with the odds of obesity. Results indicate that small decreases in neighborhood greenness may also show protective associations with obesity risk. Our findings, if replicated, suggest that changing levels (particularly increases) of greenness in the residential environment may combat the rise of obesity.

Emergency Department visits for depression following police killings of unarmed African Americans

Previous literature on racism and adverse mental health largely focuses on individual-level exposures. We investigate whether and to what extent structural racism, as measured by police killings of unarmed African Americans, affect a severe and acute mental health outcome among African Americans: depression-related Emergency Department (ED) visits. We used police killings of unarmed African Americans as our exposure and depression-related ED visits (per 100,000 population) as our outcome. We examined the relation across 75 counties from five US states between 2013 and 2015 (2700 county-months). Linear fixed effect analyses controlled for time-invariant county-factors as well as the number of hospitals and arrests for violent crimes (per 100,000 population). Police killings of unarmed African Americans correspond with an 11% increase in ED visits per 100,000 population related to depression among African Americans in the concurrent month and three months following the exposure (p < 0.05). Researchers and policymakers may want to consider prevention efforts to reduce racial bias in policing and implement surveillance of fatal police encounters. These encounters, moreover, may worsen mental health and help-seeking in the ED among African Americans not directly connected to the encounter.

The 2016 presidential election and periviable births among Latina women

OBJECTIVE

Research suggests that sociopolitical stressors connected with the 2016 presidential election were associated with increases in preterm birth among Latina women. This study determined whether periviable births (<26 weeks gestation), which exhibit extremely high rates of infant morbidity and mortality, among US Latina women increased above expected levels after the 2016 US presidential election.

METHODS

We assigned singleton live births among Latina and non-Latina white women in the US to 96 monthly conception cohorts conceived from January 2009 through December 2016. We constructed risk ratios by dividing the rate of periviable birth among Latina women by the rate among non-Latina white women. We used time-series methods to determine if the risk ratio of periviable births in cohorts conceived by Latina women and exposed to the election of 2016 exceeded those expected from autocorrelation and calendar effects.

RESULTS

We found an outlying sequence of risk ratios among Latina women starting with the cohort conceived in April and ending with that conceived in November 2016. Increases in the ratios ranged from 0.07 above an expected of 1.61 for the cohort conceived in June, to 0.39 above an expected of 1.27 for the cohort conceived in April.

CONCLUSION

We find that pregnancies in gestation at the time of the 2016 election among Latina women yielded more than expected periviable births. These findings support the argument that the prospect of anti-immigrant policies promised by the Trump campaign sufficiently stressed Latina women to affect the timing of birth.

Non-COVID-19 deaths after social distancing in Norway

Lay persons and policy makers have speculated on how national differences in the imposition of social distancing to reduce SARS CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection has affected non-COVID-19 deaths. No rigorous estimation of the effect appears in the scholarly literature. We use time-series methods to compare non-COVID-19 deaths in Norway during its 9 weeks of mandated social distancing to those expected from history as well as from non-COVID-19 deaths in relatively less restricted Sweden. We estimate that 430 fewer Norwegians than expected died from causes other than COVID-19. We argue that failing to account for averted non-COVID-19 deaths will lead to an underestimate of the benefits of social distancing policies.

A test of oscillation in the human secondary sex ratio

Background and objectives

The sex ratio of human birth cohorts predicts the health and longevity of their members. Most literature invokes natural selection in support of the argument that heritable tendencies to produce male or female offspring induce oscillation in the sex ratio and its sequelae. Tests of the argument remain exceedingly rare because they require vital statistics describing many generations of a population both unaffected by migration and exposed to an exogenous stressor virulent enough to change the sex ratio at birth. We contribute to the literature by using time-series modeling to detect oscillation in the best data currently available for such a test.

Methodology

We apply rigorous time-series methods to data describing Sweden from 1751 through 1830, a period when the population not only aged in place without migration, but also exhibited the effects of an Icelandic volcanic eruption including a historically low secondary sex ratio. That very low sex ratio should have induced oscillation if heritable mechanisms appear in humans.

Results

We detected oscillation in the ratio but not that predicted by heritable tendencies to produce males or females. We found peak-to-trough oscillation at 14 rather than the approximately 32 years expected from the heritable tendencies argument.

Conclusions and implications

Our findings suggest that mechanisms other than perturbation of heritable tendencies to produce males or females induce oscillation in the human secondary sex ratio. These other mechanisms may include reproductive suppression and selection in utero.

LAY SUMMARY

The male to female ratio in human birth cohorts predicts longevity but its variation over time remains unexplained. We test the long-held theory that the ratio oscillates due to heritable tendencies to produce males or females. We find oscillation, but it appears due to social processes rather than heritable mechanisms.

Income dividends and subjective survival in a Cherokee Indian cohort: a quasi-experiment

Persons with high temporal discounting tend to value immediate gratification over future gains. Low self-reported lifespan (SRL)-an individual's assessment of a relatively short future lifespan-concentrates in low-income populations and may reflect high temporal discounting. We use casino-based cash dividends among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI) as a quasi-experiment to test whether large income gains among EBCI members translate into increased SRL. We used SRL data for EBCI and White youth, aged 19 to 28, participating in two waves of the Life Time Trajectory of Youth (LTI-Y) survey from 2000 to 2010. We controlled for unobserved confounding across individuals, time, and region through a longitudinal design using a difference-in-difference analytic approach (N = 294). We conducted all analyses separately by gender and by quartile of socioeconomic status. Cash dividends correspond with a 15.23 year increase in SRL among EBCI men below the lowest socio-economic quartile at baseline relative to Whites (standard error = 5.39, p < .01). Results using other socio-economic cut-points support improved SRL among EBCI men (but not women). The large magnitude of this result among EBCI men indicates that a non-trivial cash dividend to a low-income population may confer long-term benefits on perceptions of future lifespan and, in turn, reduce temporal discounting.Abbreviations: EBCI: Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians; SES: Socioeconomic Status; LTI-Y: Life Trajectory Interview for Youth; GSMS: Great Smoky Mountains Study; SRL: Self-Reported Lifespan; SSS: Subjective Social Status.

Immigrant apprehensions and birth outcomes: Evidence from California birth records 2008-2015

While several studies find adverse birth outcomes among Latina mothers after discrete immigration enforcement events, it is unknown whether day-to-day enforcement activities precede adverse birth outcomes. This study examines birth outcomes among Latinas following local immigrant apprehensions-48-h holds on suspected undocumented immigrants by local law enforcement-over an 8-year period. County-level apprehensions, scaled to 1000 of the population, were averaged across the third trimester. We analyzed the association between county-level apprehensions and low birth weight (LBW) and preterm birth (PTB) between 2008 and 2015 in California using spline logistic regression models with knots at the quartiles of apprehensions and included covariates, county fixed-effects, and a time propensity variable to account for trend and seasonality in LBW and PTB. We performed these regressions for non-Hispanic White, all Latina, and foreign-born (FB) Latina mothers. There were no significant associations between apprehensions and LBW. For all Latina women, there were no differences in PTB between zero apprehensions and levels that were below the median. Latina mothers exposed to moderately high apprehensions had lower odds for PTB compared to zero apprehensions. At the highest levels of apprehensions, however, Latina women showed significantly elevated odds of PTB (at 0.71 apprehensions: OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12). PTB responded differentially to localized enforcement threats. At lower and moderate levels, Latino communities may have mobilized in ways that reduced the risk for PTB. Risks emerged at the highest levels of enforcement, underlying the intense fear and anxiety in hyper-surveilled areas.

Psychiatric-related Revisits to the Emergency Department Following Rapid Expansion of Community Mental Health Services

OBJECTIVES

Repeat visits (revisits) to emergency departments (EDs) for psychiatric care reflect poor continuity of care and impose a high financial cost. We test whether rapid expansion of community health centers (CHCs)-which provide regional, low-cost primary care-correspond with fewer repeat psychiatric-related ED visits (PREDVs).

METHODS

We obtained repeated cross-sectional time-series data for 7.8 million PREDVs from the State Emergency Department Database for four populous U.S. states (California, Florida, North Carolina, and New York) from 2006 to 2011. We specified as the outcome variable the count of repeat visits per ED visitor with a psychiatric diagnosis. We retrieved aggregate-level mental health visits at CHCs from the Uniform Data System. Negative binomial regression methods controlled for individual-level confounders, county health system and sociodemographic attributes, year fixed effects, and county fixed effects.

RESULTS

The risk of a repeat PREDV decreased with a county-level increase in mental health patients seen at CHCs (incidence rate ratio = 0.986, 95% confidence interval = 0.98 to 0.99). Conversion of this rate ratio to the number of revisits averted indicated 34,000 fewer repeat PREDVs in these four states statistically associated with a 1% expansion in CHC mental health visits. Exploratory analyses found that revisits decline for relatively mild/moderate illnesses (e.g., mood, anxiety disorders) but not for severe illnesses (e.g., schizophrenia/psychoses).

CONCLUSION

An increase in mental health services at CHCs corresponds with a modest decline in repeat PREDVs. This decline concentrates among those with less severe mental illnesses.

African American/white disparities in psychiatric emergencies among youth following rapid expansion of Federally Qualified Health Centers

OBJECTIVE

To test whether rapid expansion of mental health services in Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) reduces African American/white disparities in youth psychiatric emergency department (ED) visits.

DATA SOURCES

Secondary ED data for psychiatric care for 3.3 million African American and white youth in nine states, 2006-2011. We used the HCUP SEDD and SID. We obtained FQHC service data from the Uniform Data System.

STUDY DESIGN

The psychiatric ED visit is the dependent variable. Logistic regression methods control for individual risk factors for ED use, as well as county-level health system factors and county and year fixed effects. Key independent variables include indicators of mental health service capacity in FQHCs in a county-year.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

We extracted ED psychiatric visits for 3.3 million African American and white youth in nine states, 2006-2011, from the HCUP SEDD and SID, and FQHC data from the Uniform Data System.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Overall mental health visits at FQHCs correlate positively with psychiatric ED visits among African American youth. However, increases in the number of mental health visits per FQHC patient corresponds with fewer outpatient psychiatric ED visits among African American youth, relative to white youth (odds ratio = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.94, 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in the intensity of services offered per mental health patient at FQHCs-rather than increases in overall capacity-may reduce African American youth's overreliance on the ED for psychiatric care.

Psychiatric Emergency Department Visits After Regional Expansion of Community Health Centers

OBJECTIVE

Regional primary health care system capacity may affect the demand for psychiatric visits to the emergency department (ED). In the United States, community health centers (CHCs), which serve low-income regions regardless of individuals' ability to pay, expanded primary care services by over 70% in the past decade. No research, however, evaluates whether this expansion affects overall psychiatric ED visits. This hypothesis is tested in 143 U.S. counties that expanded CHC services.

METHODS

For the years 2006 through 2011, 18.84 million psychiatric outpatient ED visits were aggregated by county-year for the 143 U.S. counties with a participating CHC. The rate of psychiatric ED cases in a county-year is the dependent variable. Two independent variables were examined: total patients seen at CHCs and total patients receiving mental health services at CHCs. Fixed-effects regression methods controlled for county effects, year effects, and other health care and sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

Psychiatric ED visits fell below expected levels in county-years where the volume of overall CHC patients rose (coefficient=-0.059; standard error=0.027, p=0.03). Findings indicate no relation between the volume of mental health patients seen at CHCs and psychiatric ED visits.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in general primary health care to an underserved population, in the form of CHCs, corresponds with a decline in psychiatric ED visits. This result coheres with a recent Medicaid expansion experiment in which increased access to general primary care reduced the prevalence of undiagnosed and untreated depression. Findings, if replicated, may hold policy implications for regional health systems.