Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health literacy among pregnant women in the United Arab Emirates: The Mutaba'ah study

BACKGROUND

Health literacy is the degree to which individuals can obtain, process, understand, and communicate health-related information. Health literacy among pregnant women, in particular, may have a significant impact on maternal and child health. In the United Arab Emirates, no previous studies have been carried out to investigate the health literacy levels of pregnant women.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate antenatal health literacy levels and identify associated factors among pregnant Emirati women in the United Arab Emirates.

DESIGN

This analysis was based on the baseline cross-sectional data for pregnant women participating in the prospective cohort Mutaba'ah Study, recruited between May 2017 and August 2022.

METHODS

Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire during their antenatal visits that collected sociodemographic and pregnancy-related information. Adequacy of health literacy was assessed using the BRIEF health literacy screening tool with adequate health literacy defined as a score ⩾ 17. Regression modeling investigated the association between the pregnant women characteristics with having adequate health literacy level (ability to read and comprehend most patient education materials).

RESULTS

A total of 2694 responses to the BRIEF health literacy screening tool were analyzed. Approximately, three-quarters (71.6%) of respondents showed adequate health literacy, followed by marginal (22.8%), and limited (5.6%) health literacy levels, respectively. Higher education levels (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval = 1.46-2.08), employment (adjusted odds ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval = 1.10-1.65), and adequate social support (adjusted odds ratio = 1.69, 95% confidence interval = 1.26-2.28) were associated with adequate health literacy levels. Participants who expressed worry about birth were less likely to have adequate literacy levels (adjusted odds ratio = 0.70, 95% confidence interval = 0.58-0.85).

CONCLUSION

Nearly three-quarters of pregnant women have adequate health literacy. Nevertheless, measures including policies to sustain and enhance health literacy levels among all expectant mothers are required, with a specific focus on those having limited health literacy.

Hesitancy toward vaccination against COVID-19: A scoping review of prevalence and associated factors in the Arab world

Despite widespread availability of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 virus, the cause of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), its uptake in many Arab countries is relatively low. This literature review aimed to scope evidence on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (VH) in the Arab world. A total of 134 articles reporting prevalence of COVID-19 VH and associated factors, conducted in any of the 22 Arab League countries, were reviewed. COVID-19 VH prevalence ranged from 5.4% to 83.0%. Female gender, young age, low education level and lack of previous influenza vaccine uptake were most commonly reported to be associated with COVID-19 VH. The most-reported personal concerns contributing toward VH were related to the rapid development, safety and side effects of vaccine, as well as an overall lack of trust in government policies toward pandemic control and widespread conspiracy theories. Tailored interventions to enable the distribution of trusted information and enhance public acceptance of immunization are warranted.

Interventions to increase cervical screening uptake among immigrant women: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Numerous intervention studies have attempted to increase cervical screening uptake among immigrant women, nonetheless their screening participation remains low. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarise the evidence on interventions to improve cervical screening among immigrant women globally and identify their effectiveness. Databases PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, PsycINFO, ERIC, CINAHL and CENTRAL were systematically searched from inception to October 12, 2021, for intervention studies, including randomised and clinical controlled trials (RCT, CCT) and one and two group pre-post studies. Peer-reviewed studies involving immigrant and refugee women, in community and clinical settings, were eligible. Comparator interventions were usual or minimal care or attention control. Data extraction, quality appraisal and risk of bias were assessed by two authors independently using COVIDENCE software. Narrative synthesis of findings was carried out, with the main outcome measure defined as the cervical screening uptake rate difference pre- and post-intervention followed by random effects meta-analysis of trials and two group pre-post studies, using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software, to calculate pooled rate ratios and adjustment for publication bias, where found. The protocol followed PRISMA guidelines and was registered prospectively with PROSPERO (CRD42020192341). 1,900 studies were identified, of which 42 (21 RCTS, 4 CCTs, and 16 pre-post studies) with 44,224 participants, were included in the systematic review, and 28 with 35,495 participants in the meta-analysis. Overall, the uptake difference rate for interventions ranged from -6.7 to 96%. Meta-analysis demonstrated a pooled rate ratio of 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.29), with high heterogeneity. Culturally sensitive, multicomponent interventions, using different modes of information delivery and self-sampling modality were most promising. Interventions led to at least 15% increase in cervical screening participation among immigrant women. Interventions designed to overcome logistical barriers and use multiple channels to communicate culturally appropriate health promotion messages are most effective at achieving cervical screening uptake among immigrant women.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Women in the UAE Towards Breast and Cervical Cancer Prevention: A Cross-Sectional Study

INTRODUCTION

Breast and cervical cancers represent two important causes of cancer-associated deaths in females. Uptake in prevention towards these cancers remains low in the United Arab Emirates.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to understand the knowledge, attitudes and practices of females residing in the Al Ain city, UAE, towards cervical and breast cancer prevention.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey was conducted with 300 women, aged 30 years and above. The primary outcome measure was cervical and breast cancer prevention knowledge. The knowledge was queried through a number of items, with the resulting aggregate scores categorized into good and low knowledge. Chi-square test was conducted to investigate the association between prevention knowledge and sociodemographic factors. Additional outcomes included attitude towards and uptake of cervical and breast cancer screening.

RESULTS

Of the participants surveyed, 36.7% had good knowledge on breast cancer prevention, while 5.3% on cervical cancer prevention. Although the majority of the participants believed that prevention methods could save lives, they reported negative attitudes, considering screening unnecessary and painful. The self-reported screening uptake was 23% and 31.3% for mammography and Pap smear, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The study reported that the knowledge and uptake of women was low for both breast and cervical cancer prevention. Targeted campaigns not only to increase knowledge but also to resolve misconceptions to change negative attitudes may lead to an increase in uptake.

Polycystic ovarian syndrome among women diagnosed with infertility in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence studies

BACKGROUND

Polycystic ovarian syndrome, a common endocrine disorder, is an important cause of infertility among women of reproductive age. Within the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, polycystic ovarian syndrome is found to affect women increasingly. No study has been carried out to critically summarize the evidence on the prevalence of polycystic ovarian syndrome among women suffering from infertility in these countries.

OBJECTIVE

This protocol aims to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the studies reporting the prevalence of polycystic ovarian syndrome among women seeking infertility treatment in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates).

DESIGN/METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The systematic review and meta-analysis will follow the following method.

DATA SOURCE

Five databases, including PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and SCOPUS, will be searched for observational studies using a combination of relevant keywords and Medical Subject Headings from inception of databases.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers will screen titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text search based on the eligibility criteria. The main outcome is to measure the proportion of women who have polycystic ovarian syndrome among infertility-diagnosed patients. In addition, the risk of bias in the included studies will be assessed using the national institute of health quality assessment tool for observational studies.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The random-effects method of the analysis with the inverse variance will be used to calculate the pooled prevalence of polycystic ovarian syndrome-attributed infertility. Variation in prevalence estimates will be calculated using subgroup analysis based on study and patients' characteristics and publication bias will be assessed via funnel plot inspection and Eggar's test.

DISCUSSION

A critical assessment of evidence on the prevalence of polycystic ovarian syndrome in women attending fertility clinics is helpful in risk quantification, enabling better planning for managing infertility in women with polycystic ovarian syndrome.

REGISTRATION

This protocol has been registered with PROSPERO, protocol registration number (CRD42022355087).

The prevalence and correlates of depression among patients with chronic diseases in the United Arab Emirates

BACKGROUND

Chronic diseases constitute a major public health problem in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity. Chronic diseases have been found to be associated with an increased prevalence of depression and depressive symptoms. Depression can have detrimental effect on the prognosis of the disease and quality of life in patients.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and correlates of depression in a sample of patients suffering from chronic disease in Al-Ain city, UAE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional survey based study was conducted with 417 participants recruited from seven primary health care centers of Al-Ain city. Men and women aged 18 years and above suffering from chronic disease filled the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were performed on the collected data to investigate correlates of different factors with depression. Data was analyzed using SPSS (version 26). The study was approved by Ambulatory Healthcare Services (AHS) Human Ethics Research Committee.

RESULTS

The majority 62.41% (n = 254) of the sample were females, 57.97% (n = 240) aged above 55 years and with a median (Q25, Q75) duration of chronic disease of 8 (4, 15) years. The prevalence of depression was 21.1% (95% CI: 17.5%-25.3%). With severe depression was in 1.7% and mild-moderate in 34.7% of the participants. Depression severity was statistically significantly associated with increasing age (p = 0.006), low level of education (p<0.001), presence of asthma (p = 0.007) and heart disease (p = 0.013). Unadjusted logistic regression reported that presence of depression was significantly associated with female gender (cOR = 1.8, [95% CI; 1.1-3.1], p = 0.025), and presence of chronic kidney disease (cOR = 4.9, [95% CI; 1.3-20.2], p = 0.020) and heart disease (cOR = 2.9, [95% CI; 1.6-5.4], p = 0.001) longer duration of disease in years (cOR = 1.04, [95% CI; 1.01-1.07], p = 0.003). However, in the adjusted logistic regression analysis, participants with heart disease (aOR = 2.8, [95% CI; 1.4-5.5], p = 0.004), and with longer duration of disease (aOR = 1.04, [1.01-1.07], p = 0.014) remained significantly associated statistically with higher chance of having depression.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of depression was quite high and the study highlights for health care professionals and policy makers, the importance of mental health support as part of a comprehensive management plan for patients with chronic diseases. A multidisciplinary comprehensive program will improve the long-term outcomes of these patients. Patients with chronic diseases may need more support and counseling at primary health care levels.

What do South Asian immigrant women know about HPV, cervical cancer and its early detection: A cross-sectional Australian study

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Low HPV and cervical cancer knowledge levels among South Asian immigrant women.

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One third participants aware of the renewed cervical screening program changes.

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Screening uptake significantly associated with HPV and cervical cancer awareness.

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GP discussion on the topic found to have important role in increasing knowledge.

Cervical cancer commonly caused by Human Papillomavirus (HPV) imposes a significant burden in Asia. This study examined the awareness and knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and its early detection methods among South Asian immigrant women in Australia to determine factors associated with knowledge deficits. A cross-sectional internet-based survey was completed by a convenience sample of women (n=148), with South-Asian background, residing in Queensland during May-October 2019. Main outcome variables were awareness of HPV, cervical cancer, cervical screening test (Pap test and HPV test) and HPV test self-sampling availability (Yes/No). HPV and cervical cancer knowledge were assessed via 16-item and 20 item aggregated scales respectively, (higher scores indicating better knowledge). Five individual items queried knowledge of the Pap and HPV test, and one item actual cervical screening uptake. One-way ANOVA was used to study differences in HPV and cervical cancer knowledge among sociodemographic groups. Of 148 participating women, 55% (n=86) had heard of HPV, 77% (n=114) of cervical cancer and 81.8% (n=121) of Pap tests. Only one third of participants (n=49) were aware that now an HPV test is used for cervical screening and 10% (n=15) of its self-sampling availability, whereas 55.4% (n=82) reported participation in screening previously. The mean HPV knowledge score was 5.3 (S.D: 5.7) and mean cervical cancer knowledge score 9.8 (S.D: 6.5) with zero being the most common score on both scales. Higher knowledge scores were significantly associated with higher educational level, English language proficiency, discussion with a GP on the topic and previous participation in screening. The majority of participants lacked detailed knowledge about the available screening tests. This study identified key target groups for future interventions.

Reasons behind Low Cervical Screening Uptake among South Asian Immigrant Women: A Qualitative Exploration

Despite advancements in prevention strategies, cervical cancer remains a leading cause of death among underprivileged women. Although Australia has low age-standardized cervical cancer incidence rates compared with other countries, disparities exist in cervical screening uptake among certain population subgroups, especially those from culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) backgrounds. South Asian immigrant women have been reported to have lower cervical screening uptake than Australian-born women and those from other immigrant backgrounds. The objective of this study was to gain insight into the reasons and barriers for low cervical screening participation among South Asian immigrant women, through qualitative exploration. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 women, aged 26–50 years, living in Queensland, Australia, who were recruited via purposive sampling. After translation and transcription of recorded interviews, data was analysed via inductive thematic approach. Resulting themes, illustrating barriers towards screening, included: lack of cervical cancer and screening knowledge, especially of the changes in the revised screening program; effect of preventive, health-seeking behaviours; health care system factors; role of practical constraints and influence of sociocultural beliefs. Results suggest that culturally informed interventions, that involve relevant information provision and behavioural change strategies, to clarify women’s misconceptions, are required.

Cervical screening uptake: A cross-sectional study of self-reported screening attitudes, behaviours and barriers to participation among South Asian immigrant women living in Australia

Introduction:

Cervical cancer remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among women from low and lower middle-income countries, as well as underserved population subgroups in high-income countries. Migration from South Asia to Australia has increased over the last decade, and immigrant women from this region have been reported as a subgroup, with less than optimal cervical screening participation in Australia. This study examined cervical screening uptake and associated behavioural attitudes among South Asian immigrant women living in Queensland Australia.

Methods:

A cross-sectional, Internet-based survey was used to collect data from a convenience sample of 148 South Asian women living in Queensland. The main outcome measure was receipt of cervical screening test ever (yes/no) and its recency (within 2 years/more than 2 years). The survey also examined participants’ views on barriers towards screening and ways to enhance it.

Results:

Of 148 women who completed the survey, 55.4% (n = 82) reported ever having a cervical screening test before and 43.9% (n = 65) reported having it in previous two years. Not having a previous cervical screening test was significantly associated with duration of stay in Australia for less than five years, not having access to a regular general practitioner (GP), not being employed, having low cervical cancer knowledge level and not knowing if cervical screening test is painful or not. Most commonly reported barriers to screening uptake included considering oneself not at risk, lack of time and lack of information. The most favoured strategy among participants was encouragement by GP and awareness through social media advertisements.

Conclusion:

This study provided insights into factors that need consideration when developing future targeted interventions.

Anticoagulation and bleeding events in Patients with Post- Operative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery

Background

Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POPAF) following cardiac surgery is a common arrhythmia associated with an increased morbidity and mortality. There is little data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anticoagulation (AC) in POPAF patients. We investigated the occurrence of 30-days POP major bleeding or embolic events and their timing in relation to the index cardiac surgery, the initiation of the arrhythmia and of anticoagulation in patients who developed new onset POPAF.

Methods

4,073 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery from September 2010- December 2016 were evaluated. Patients with history of AF/Aflutter were excluded. POPAF was confirmed by ECG or telemetry. Major post-operative bleeding that occurred after AF was defined using PLATO criteria or the BARC scale (any ≥3).

Results

3,230 patients were included (37% CABG, 69% valve surgery). The incidence of POAF was 24%. The median time (IQR) of POPAF was 3 (2) days after the index surgery. 64% of POAF patients were male and 14% had a history of stroke. The mean (SD) age was 72 (9) years old. The average (SD) CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.9 (1.5). The initial postoperative AC was full dose heparin, lovenox or argatroban in 58% of patients. The rest of patients had low dose heparin/lovenox for DVT prophylaxis and/or were started on oral anticoagulation without a bridge. The median (IR) time of POPAF to anticoagulation was 1 (2) days. There were 15 (1.9%) major bleeding events; 88% of which occurred in patients receiving full anticoagulation. Major bleeding events occurred a median of 15 (9) days after the index surgery and 9 (6) days after anticoagulation. Independent predictors of major bleed were history of PAD (P&lt;0.01) and pre-operative use of b-blockers (P=0.04). There were 11 (1.4%) POP strokes which occurred a median of 5 (16) days after the index surgery, and 2 (13) days after POPAF. 63% of strokes happened in patients that received anticoagulation. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score were 3.9 (1.5) and 4.7 (1.7), P=0.1 for patients without and with strokes, respectively. Stroke history (P&lt;0.01) was the only independent stroke predictor. Both strokes and bleeding events were associated with significantly longer ICU and hospital length of stay. 86% of POPAF patients received amiodarone during hospitalization and 2.1% electric cardioversion. Upon discharge, 2.3% of patients were in in atrial fibrillation and 0.8% in atrial flutter.

Conclusion

The post-operative course of major bleeds and stroke in patients with POPAF after cardiac surgery is different. Bleeding events are delayed and appear related to anticoagulation. The relative benefit of perioperative anticoagulation remains unclear.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Cervical Cancer Screening Among Immigrant Women Residing in Australia: A Systematic Review

Since the introduction of systematic population-based cervical cancer screening in Australia in 1991, age-standardized incidence of cervical cancer has halved. Given recent advances in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening, cervical cancer may be eliminated nationally within 20 years. However, immigrant women are not equitably reached by screening efforts. This study systematically reviewed evidence on cervical cancer screening practices among immigrant women in Australia. A systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, and PsycINFO and gray literature for English language studies published till March 1, 2019, was conducted. Observational and qualitative studies evaluating cervical cancer screening awareness and participation of immigrant women were screened. Of 125 potentially relevant studies, 25 were eligible: 16 quantitative (4 cohort, 12 cross-sectional), 6 qualitative, and 3 mixed-methods studies. Quantitative studies indicated 1% to 16% lower screening rates among migrant women compared with Australian-born women, with participation of South Asian women being significantly lower (odds ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval = 0.48-0.61). Qualitative studies illustrated factors affecting women's willingness to participate in screening, including insufficient knowledge, low-risk perception, and unavailability of a female health professionals being key barriers. Future studies should focus on South Asian women, due to recent increase in their immigration.

Clinical and urodynamic outcomes in children with anorectal malformation subtype of recto-bladder neck fistula

INTRODUCTION

Patients with anorectal malformations (ARMs) have a high incidence of genitourinary anomalies. Those with a recto-bladder neck fistula may represent a high-risk group, but their long-term urologic outcomes are poorly described.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical and urodynamic outcomes in a large cohort of patients with an ARM subtype of recto-bladder neck fistula.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed of patients who had been treated for a recto-bladder neck fistula at the present institution since 2007. The primary outcomes were the ability to achieve urinary continence after 4 years of age, and development of a mildly decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) or worse (<89 ml/min/1.73 m²). Continence was defined as the ability to store urine for 3-4 h during the day and 8 h overnight without leakage.

RESULTS

Demographic and clinical data are provided in the Summary Table. The most recent urodynamic findings included the presence of detrusor overactivity in 30 (75%) patients, median leak point pressure of 56.0 cmH₂O (range, 14-140), median functional cystometric capacity at 40 cmH₂O of 125.5% age-expected capacity (range, 36-473%), and median maximum cystometric capacity of 131.0% age-expected capacity (range, 44-473%). A mildly decreased GFR or worse developed in 13 (24%) patients. Of the 52 (78%) patients who were followed by pediatric urology at the present institution with a median follow-up of 30.9 months (range, 0.0-86.8), 35 (67%) were at least 4 years of age and could be assessed for continence. Continence was achieved in five (14%) patients voiding spontaneously and 15 (43%) performing CIC. Recurrent urinary tract infections (UTI) (OR 0.70, P = 0.006) were an independent predictor of incontinence, while urethral anomalies (OR 1.40, P = 0.03) were an independent predictor of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on multiple logistic regression analysis.

DISCUSSION

The findings favorably compared with other studies, but were more robust due to the size of the cohort and breadth of urologic evaluation. Limitations included the retrospective design at a single institution. Incomplete clinical data and misclassification of continence may have lead to bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This large cohort of patients with an ARM subtype of recto-bladder neck fistula had a high incidence of genitourinary anomalies. They were rarely able to achieve continence with spontaneous voiding alone and were at risk of developing CKD, both of which were likely multifocal in origin. Long-term urologic follow-up is warranted for patients with a recto-bladder neck fistula.

Optimal formation of genetically modified and functional pancreatic islet spheroids by using hanging-drop strategy

BACKGROUND

Rejection and hypoxia are important factors causing islet loss at an early stage after pancreatic islet transplantation. Recently, islets have been dissociated into single cells for reaggregation into so-called islet spheroids. Herein, we used a hanging-drop strategy to form islet spheroids to achieve functional equivalence to intact islets.

METHODS

To obtain single islet cells, we dissociated islets with trypsin-EDTA digestion for 10 minutes. To obtain spheroids, we dropped various numbers of single cells (125, 250, or 500 cells/30 μL drop) onto a Petri dish, that was inverted for incubation in humidified air containing 5% CO(2) at 37 °C for 7 days. The aggregated spheroids in the droplets were harvested for further culture.

RESULTS

The size of the aggregated islet spheroids depended on the number of single cells (125-500 cells/30 μL droplet). Their morphology was similar to that of intact islets without any cellular damage. When treated with various concentrations of glucose to evaluate responsiveness, their glucose-mediated stimulation index value was similar to that of intact islets, an observation that was attributed to strong cell-to-cell interactions in islet spheroids. However, islet spheroids aggregated in general culture dishes showed abnormal glucose responsiveness owing to weak cell-to-cell interactions. Cell-to-cell interactions in islet spheroids were confirmed with an anti-connexin-36 monoclonal antibody. Finally, nonviral poly(ethylene imine)-mediated interleukin-10 cytokine gene delivered beforehand into dissociated single cells before formation of islet spheroids increased the gene transfection efficacy and interleukin-10 secretion from islet spheroids >4-fold compared with intact islets.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrated the potential application of genetically modified, functional islet spheroids with of controlled size and morphology using an hanging-drop technique.

Biostability and disinfectant by-product formation in drinking water blended with UF-treated filter backwash water

The overall objective of this study was to investigate the impact of blending membrane-treated water treatment plant (WTP) residuals with plant-filtered water on finished water quality in terms of biostability and disinfectant by-product (DBP) formation. Filter backwash water (FBWW) was treated with a pilot-scale ultrafiltration (UF) membrane to produce permeate that was blended with plant-finished water. The batch studies involved storing samples for a specified time with a disinfectant residual to simulate residence time in the distribution system. Both chlorinated and non-chlorinated FBWW streams were evaluated, and the experimental design incorporated free chlorine, monochloramine, and chlorine dioxide in parallel to a model system that did not receive a disinfectant dose. The results of the study found that blending 10% UF-treated FBWW with plant-filtered water did not have an impact on water biostability as monitored with heterotrophic plate counts (HPCs) or DBP concentrations as monitored by TTHM and HAA5 concentrations. However, the presence of preformed THM and HAA species found in chlorinated FBWW streams may result in higher levels of initial DBP concentrations in blended water matrices, and could have a significant impact on finished water quality in terms of meeting specific DBP guidelines or regulations.

Use of fungi for the bioconversion of rice straw into cellulase enzyme

Cellulase production was carried out by solid state bioconversion (SSB) method using rice straw, a lignocellulosic material and agricultural waste, as the substrate of three Trichoderma spp. and Phanerochaete chrysosporium in lab-scale experiments. The results were compared to select the best fungi among them for the production of cellulase. Phanerochaete chrysosporium was found to be the best among these species of fungi, which produced the highest cellulase enzyme of 1.43 IU/mL of filter paper activity (FPase) and 2.40 IU/mL of carboxymethylcellulose activity (CMCase). The "glucosamine" and "reducing sugar" parameters were observed to evaluate the growth and substrate utilization in the experiments. In the case of Phanerochaete Chrysosporium, the highest glucosamine concentration was 1.60 g/L and a high concentration of the release of reducing sugar was measured as 2.58 g/L obtained on the 4th day of fermentation. The pH values were also recorded. The range of the pH was about 5.15 to 5.56 in the case of Phanerochaete Chrysosporium.

Plasma levels of neuroexcitatory amino acids in patients with migraine or tension headache

Plasma amino acids were analysed in patients with migraine with (9) and without (80) aura, in patients with tension headache (14) and in controls (62). The neuroexcitatory amino acids glutamic acid, glutamine, glycine, cysteic acid and homocysteic acid were elevated in migraine patients while total thiols (cysteine/cystine) were reduced. Patients with tension headache had values which were similar to those of controls. Tryptophan was elevated in migraine patients without aura only. Studies on two patients showed that the raised resting excitatory amino acid levels became still further elevated during a migraine attack. These results show that high concentrations of neurotransmitter amino acids occur normally in migraine patients and suggest that this profile may be a contributory factor in migraine attacks. Tension headache, however, has different biochemical parameters.

Aspergillus fungal mass detected by transesophageal echocardiography

Cardiac fungal infections have become more prevalent and are being diagnosed with increasing frequency. The most common infective organism is Candida albicans, followed by Aspergillus fumigatus and Cryptococcus. Cardiac involvement is usually associated with endocarditis, myocarditis, pericarditis, or intracardiac fungal mass. Early diagnosis is imperative, as these patients have poor outcome once there is cardiac involvement. In this report we describe a patient in whom an intracardiac mass was detected with transesophageal echocardiography and confirmed to be aspergillus fungal ball at surgery.

Platelet sulphotransferase activity, plasma sulphate levels and sulphation capacity in patients with migraine and tension headache

Activity of both the M- and P-forms of sulphotransferase (ST) was measured in platelets from patients with migraine, tension headache and controls. Mean PST values were 0.065 +/- 0.023 and 0.057 +/- 0.052 nmol/mg protein/min for migraine patients with and without aura. The corresponding values for tension headache and controls were 0.122 +/- 0.059 and 0.127 +/- 0.093 nmol/mg protein/min respectively (p < 0.05). Mean MST values were not different for any of the groups, and MST and PST activities measured in two patients during a migraine attack were not significantly altered from baseline levels. Mean plasma inorganic sulphate concentrations and paracetamol metabolites were not significantly different in any of the groups studied. The results suggest that PST activity may be a factor in the aetiology of migraine.

IgG anticardiolipin antibody titer > 40 GPL and the risk of subsequent thrombo-occlusive events and death. A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Anticardiolipin antibodies (aCL) have been associated with an increased risk of stroke and thrombo-occlusive events. Little is known about the influence of aCL on recurrent thrombo-occlusive events.

METHODS

Consecutively identified patients (n = 132) with focal cerebral ischemia [stroke = 112, transient ischemic attack (TIA) = 20] harboring aCL of at least 10 GPL units at the time of their index event were prospectively followed to estimate the effect of aCL titer on time to and risk of subsequent thrombo-occlusive events (stroke, TIA, deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction) and death. On the basis of prior literature, we divided patients into those with aCL < or = 40 GPL (n = 111; mean age, 63 +/- 14 years; mean follow-up, 1.95 years) and those with aCL > 40 GPL (n = 21; mean age, 54 +/- 20 years; mean follow-up, 1.50 years).

RESULTS

There was no difference between groups for prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, atrial fibrillation, prior TIA, or sex. The GPL > 40 group was younger (54 +/- 20 versus 63 +/- 14 years; P = .055), had more prior strokes [9/21 (48%) versus 27/111 (20%); P = .030], more frequent subsequent thrombo-occlusive events and death [15/21 (71%) versus 51/111 (48%); P = .030], and a shorter median time (years) to event (0.15 versus 0.61, log rank P = .005). The risk ratio for recurrent event and death with GPL > 40 obtained from Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for prior strokes, prior TIAs, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, and cigarette smoking was 1.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 3.5; P = .051).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that subsequent thrombo-occlusive events and death after focal cerebral ischemia associated with IgG aCL may occur sooner and more frequently with GPL > 40.

Bioreductive activation of catechol estrogen-ortho-quinones: aromatization of the B ring in 4-hydroxyequilenin markedly alters quinoid formation and reactivity

There is a clear association between excessive exposure to estrogens and the development of cancer in several tissues including breast and endometrium. The risk factors for women developing these cancers are all associated with longer estrogen exposure, as may be facilitated by early menses, late menopause and long-term estrogen replacement therapy. Equilenin (1,3,5(10),6,8-estrapentaen-3-ol-17-one) or its 17-hydroxylated analogs make up 15% of the most widely prescribed estrogen replacement formulation, Premarin, and yet there is very little information on the human metabolism of these estrogens. In this study, we synthesized the catechol metabolite of equilenin, 4-hydroxyequilenin, and examined how aromatization of the B ring affects the formation and reactivity of the o-quinone (3,5-cyclohexadien-1,2-dione). 4-Hydroxyequilenin-o-quinone is much more redox-active and longer-lived than the endogenous catechol estrone-o-quinones, which suggests that the mechanism(s) of toxicity of the former could be quite different. Interestingly, the rate of reduction of the 4-hydroxyequilenin-o-quinone is increased at least 13-fold in the presence of NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase (DT-diaphorase). Once NADH is consumed however, the catechol auto-oxidized rapidly to the o-quinone. NADH consumption was accompanied by dicumarol-sensitive oxygen uptake both with the purified enzyme and with cytosol from human melanoma cells with high levels of DT-diaphorase activity. P450 reductase and rat liver microsomes also catalyzed NADPH consumption and oxygen uptake. 4-Hydroxyestrone-o-quinone was also rapidly reduced by NAD(P)H; however, this o-quinone does not auto-oxidize and once the o-quinone is reduced the reaction terminates. Including oxidative enzymes in the incubation completes the redox couple and 4-hydroxyestrone-o-quinone behaves like 4-hydroxyequilenin-o-quinone. These data suggest that reduction of estrogen-o-quinones may not result in detoxification. Instead this could represent a cytotoxic mechanism involving consumption of reducing equivalents (NADH/NADPH) as well as formation of superoxide and other reactive oxygen species leading to oxidative stress. Finally, we have compared the cytotoxicity of 4-hydroxyequilenin with that of the estrone catechols in human melanoma cells. 4-Hydroxyequilenin is 5-fold more toxic in these cells compared with 4-hydroxyestrone (ED50 = 7.8 versus 38 microM, respectively) suggesting that formation of the longer-lived redox-active 4-hydroxyequilenin-o-quinone was responsible for the cytotoxic differences. These results substantiate the conclusion that the involvement of quinoids in catechol estrogen toxicity depends on a combination of the rate of formation of the o-quinone, the lifetime of the o-quinone, and the electrophilic/redox reactivity of the quinoids.

Footprinting studies of DNA-sequence recognition by nogalamycin

We have studied the DNA sequence binding preference of the antitumour antibiotic nogalamycin by DNase-I footprinting using a variety of DNA fragments. The DNA fragments were obtained by cloning synthetic oligonucleotides into longer DNA fragments and were designed to contain isolated ligand-binding sites surrounded by repetitive sequences such as (A)n.(T)n and (AT)n. Within regions of (A)n.(T)n, clear footprints are observed with low concentrations of nogalamycin (< 5 microM), with apparent binding affinities for tetranucleotide sequences which decrease in the order TGCA > AGCT = ACGT > TCGA. In contrast, within regions of (AT)n, the ligand binds best to AGCT; binding to TCGA and TGCA is no stronger than to alternating AT. Within (ATT)n, the preference is for ACGT > TCGA. Although each of these binding sites contains all four base pairs, there is no apparent consensus sequence, suggesting that the selectivity is affected by local DNA dynamic and structural effects. At higher drug concentrations (> 25 microM), nogalamycin prevents DNAse-I cleavage of (AT)n but shows no interaction with regions of (AC)n.(GT)n. Regions of (A)n.(T)n, which are poorly cut by DNase I, show enhanced rates of cleavage in the presence of low concentrations of nogalamycin, but are protected from cleavage at higher concentrations. We suggest that this arises because drug binding to adjacent regions distorts the DNA to a structure which is more readily cut by the enzyme and which is better able to bind further ligand molecules.