Evolutionary analysis of seasonal influenza A viruses in Pakistan 2020-2023

INTRODUCTION

Influenza A viruses cause global health concerns due to their high amino acid substitution rates. They are linked to yearly seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. This study focused on sequencing influenza A virus strains in Pakistan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed the genetic characteristics of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses circulating in Pakistan from January 2020 to January 2023. Whole genome sequences from influenza A (n = 126) virus isolates were amplified and sequenced by the Oxford Nanopore (MinION) platform.

RESULTS

The HA genes of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 underwent amino acid substitutions at positions K54Q, A186T, Q189E, E224A, R259K, and K308R in sequenced samples. The HA genes of influenza A(H3N2) had amino acid substitutions at G53D, E83K, D104G, I140M, S205F, A212T, and K276R in the sequenced samples. Furthermore, the HA gene sequences of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in this study belonged to subclade 6B.1A.5a.2a. Similarly, the HA gene sequences of influenza A(H3N2) were classified under six subclades (3C.3a.1 and 3C.2a1b.2a [2, 2a.1, 2b, 2c, and 2a.3b]). Notably, amino acid substitutions in other gene segments of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) were also found.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses co-circulated during the 2020-2023 influenza season in Pakistan. Continued surveillance is crucial for real-time monitoring of possible high-virulence variation and their relevance to existing vaccine strains.

Genetic differentiation and bottleneck effects in the malaria vectors Anopheles farauti and Anopheles punctulatus after an LLIN-based vector control program in Papua New Guinea

Implementation of long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) programs to control human malaria transmission leads to substantial reductions in the abundance of Anopheles mosquitoes, but the impact on the population genetic structure of the malaria vectors is poorly known, nor has it been investigated in Papua New Guinea, where malaria is highly endemic and where several species of Anopheles have vector roles. Here, we applied Wright's F-statistic, analysis of molecular variance, Bayesian structure analysis, and discriminant analysis of principle components to microsatellite genotype data to analyze the population genetic structure of Anopheles farauti between and within the northern and southern lowland plains and of Anopheles punctulatus within the northern plain of Papua New Guinea after such a program. Bottleneck effects in the two malaria vectors were analyzed using Luikart and Cornuet's tests of heterozygosity. A large, panmictic population of An. punctulatus pre-LLIN program diverged into two subregional populations corresponding to Madang and East Sepik provinces post-LLIN distribution and experienced a genetic bottleneck during this process. By contrast, the An. farauti population existed as two regional populations isolated by mountain ranges pre-LLIN, a genetic structure that persisted after the distribution of LLINs with no further geographic differentiation nor evidence of a genetic bottleneck. These findings show the differential response of populations of different vector species to interventions, which has implications for program sustainability and gene flow.

Pathways from maternal depression to child resilience: Socioeconomic, family, and individual factors in the 2004 Pelotas (Brazil) birth cohort

Background

The negative impacts of maternal depression on child mental health outcomes are well-documented. However, some children show adaptive functioning following exposure to maternal depression, demonstrating resilience. In a large birth cohort from Brazil, a middle-income country, we examined direct and indirect pathways, considering socioeconomic, family, and individual factors, contributing to the development of resilience.

Methods

Using data from the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort (N = 4231), we restricted the sample to those exposed to maternal depression up to age 6 years (depression present at ≥2 out of 5 assessment waves; n = 1132; 50% boys). Resilience was defined as scoring below or equal to the mean of the unexposed group on all four problem subscales of the parent-report Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at age 11 years. We examined pathways from socioeconomic status (SES; measured at birth) to resilience via cognitive stimulation (CS) (at 24 and 48 months) and Intelligence quotient (IQ) (at 6 years), and from CS to resilience via IQ, using counterfactual mediation.

Results

A minority of children exposed to maternal depression showed resilience (12.4%). There was evidence of indirect pathways from SES to resilience via CS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-3.38) and IQ (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.42), such that higher SES was associated with resilience via both higher levels of CS and higher IQ, which, in turn, were each positively associated with resilience. Furthermore, there was evidence of a direct (OR = 1.86, 95% CI 1.01-3.76) and total effect (OR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.05-3.89) of CS on resilience, even after controlling for SES. However, these effects varied depending on how persistent and severe depression was defined.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that CS in early childhood may represent a modifiable protective factor for children exposed to maternal depression and a promising intervention target to promote child resilience in the context of maternal depression exposure.

Co-designing a theory-informed, multicomponent intervention to increase vaccine uptake with Congolese migrants: A qualitative, community-based participatory research study (LISOLO MALAMU)

INTRODUCTION

Disparities in the uptake of routine and COVID-19 vaccinations have been observed in migrant populations, and attributed to issues of mistrust, access and low vaccine confidence. Participatory research approaches and behaviour change theory hold the potential for developing tailored vaccination interventions that address these complex barriers in partnership with communities and should be explored further.

METHODS

This study used a theory-informed, community-based participatory research approach to co-design a culturally tailored behaviour change intervention aimed at increasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake among Congolese migrants in London, United Kingdom (2021-2022). It was designed and led by a community-academic partnership in response to unmet needs in the Congolese community as the COVID-19 pandemic started. Barriers and facilitators to COVID-19 vaccination, information and communication preferences, and intervention suggestions were explored through qualitative in-depth interviews with Congolese migrants, thematically analysed, and mapped to the theoretical domains framework (TDF) and the capability, opportunity, motivation, behaviour model to identify target behaviours and strategies to include in interventions. Interventions were co-designed and tailored in workshops involving Congolese migrants.

RESULTS

Thirty-two Congolese adult migrants (24 (75%) women, mean 14.3 (SD: 7.5) years in the United Kingdom, mean age 52.6 (SD: 11.0) years) took part in in-depth interviews and 16 (same sample) took part in co-design workshops. Fourteen barriers and 10 facilitators to COVID-19 vaccination were identified; most barrier data related to four TDF domains (beliefs about consequences; emotion; social influences and environmental context and resources), and the behavioural diagnosis concluded interventions should target improving psychological capability, reflective and automatic motivations and social opportunities. Strategies included culturally tailored behaviour change techniques based on education, persuasion, modelling, enablement and environmental restructuring, which resulted in a co-designed intervention comprising community-led workshops, plays and posters. Findings and interventions were disseminated through a community celebration event.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates how behavioural theory can be applied to co-designing tailored interventions with underserved migrant communities through a participatory research paradigm to address a range of health issues and inequalities. Future research should build on this empowering approach, with the goal of developing more sensitive vaccination services and interventions which respond to migrant communities' unique cultural needs and realities.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Patient and public involvement (PPI) were embedded in the participatory study design and approach, with community members co-producing all stages of the study and co-authoring this paper. An independent PPI board (St George's Migrant Health Research Group Patient and Public Involvement Advisory Board) comprising five adult migrants with lived experience of accessing healthcare in the United Kingdom were also consulted at significant points over the course of the study.

Circulation patterns and molecular epidemiology of human respiratory syncytial virus over five consecutive seasons in Morocco

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the leading cause of respiratory tract infections in infants and young children. we investigated the prevalence and characteristics of HRSV in Morocco and explored trends in circulating genotypes through partial G gene analysis of HRSV strains prevalent from 2012 to 2017.

Methods

Respiratory samples were gathered from both outpatients and inpatients meeting ILI or SARI case definitions. The patients' ages varied from 1 month to 99 years old. Nucleic acids were extracted and HRSV type/subtype was detected by RT-qPCR. A subset of positive samples was randomly selected in each epidemic year, the complete viral genome was sequenced, phylogenetic analysis was performed using the MEGA7 program and the genotypes were confirmed.

Results

The 3679 specimens were collected from 2012 to 2017, of which 726 (19.7%) were positive for HRSV. The 35% (257/726) of HRSV-positives were of the HRSV-A subtype, while the HRSV-B subtype accounted for 61% (442/726). The co-infection rate was 3.7% (27/726). The virus circulates in a periodic pattern, where epidemics occur during the fall months through early spring. HRSV genotype was confirmed in 127 specimens (56 HRSV-A and 71 HRSV-B). Based on phylogenetic analysis, all HRSV-A were ON1 genotype, and HRSV-B were mostly BA9 genotype. HRSV-B belonging to the BA10 genotype was detected in 2012 exclusively.

Conclusions

BA9, BA10, and ON1 were the only HRSV genotypes detected between 2012 and 2017. Variations in the G gene amino acid chain were identified in local strains, which suggests an increased need for continuous genomic surveillance.

The effectiveness of primary series CoronaVac vaccine in preventing COVID-19 illness: A prospective cohort study among healthcare workers in Azerbaijan, May-November 2021

Background

Healthcare workers (HCWs) have suffered considerable morbidity and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Few studies have evaluated the CoronaVac vaccine effectiveness (VE), particularly in Eastern Europe, where the vaccine has been widely used.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study among HCWs in seven hospitals in Baku, Azerbaijan between May 17 and November 30, 2021, to evaluate primary series (two-dose) CoronaVac VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants completed weekly symptom questionnaires, provided nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing when symptomatic, and provided serology samples at enrollment that were tested for anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid antibodies. We estimated VE as (1 - hazard ratio)*100 using a Cox proportional hazards model with vaccination status as a time-varying exposure, adjusting for hospital and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection status.

Results

We enrolled 1582 HCWs. At enrollment, 1040 (66%) had received two doses of CoronaVac; 421 (27%) were unvaccinated. During the study period, 72 PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred; 36/39 (92%) sequenced samples were classified as Delta variants. Primary series VE against COVID-19 illness was 29% (95% CI: -51%; 67%) for the entire analysis period. For the Delta-only period (July 1-November 30, 2021), primary series VE was 19% (95% CI: -81%; 64%). For the entire analysis period, primary series VE was 39% (95% CI: -40%; 73%) for HCWs vaccinated within 14-149 days and 19% (95% CI: -81%; 63%) for those vaccinated ≥150 days.

Conclusions

During a period in Azerbaijan characterized by mostly Delta circulation, VE point estimates suggested that primary series CoronaVac protected nearly 1 in 3 HCWs against COVID-19, but 95% confidence intervals were wide, with lower bounds that crossed zero, reflecting the limited precision of our VE estimates. Our findings underscore the need to consider booster doses for individuals who have received the primary series of CoronaVac.

Urban Governance, Multisectoral Action, and Civic Engagement for Population Health, Wellbeing, and Equity in Urban Settings: A Systematic Review

Objectives: To identify the validated and reliable indicators and tools to assess good governance for population health, wellbeing, and equity in urban settings, and assess processes of multisectoral action and civic engagement as reported by peer-reviewed articles. Methods: We conducted a systematic review searching six databases for observational studies reporting strategies of either urban health, multisectoral action or civic engagement for wellbeing, health, or equity. Results: Out of 8,154 studies initially identified we included 17. From the included studies, 14 presented information about high-income countries. The general population was the main target in most studies. Multisectoral action was the most frequently reported strategy (14 studies). Three studies used Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool (Urban HEART). Health indicators were the most frequently represented (6 studies). Barriers and facilitators for the implementation of participatory health governance strategies were reported in 12 studies. Conclusion: Data on the implementation of participatory health governance strategies has been mainly reported in high-income countries. Updated and reliable data, measured repeatedly, is needed to closely monitor these processes and further develop indicators to assess their impact on population health, wellbeing, and equity.

Effective alcohol policies are associated with reduced consumption among demographic groups who drink heavily

BACKGROUND

Alcohol policies stand out among other noncommunicable disease-relevant policies for the lack of uptake. Composite indicators have been developed to measure the effects of alcohol control policy. We investigated whether drinking patterns among demographic groups from general population samples of drinkers from diverse countries are associated with alcohol control policy as measured by the International Alcohol Control (IAC) Policy Index.

METHODS

Representative samples of adult drinkers from 10 countries (five high-income and five middle-income) were surveyed about alcohol consumption, using beverage and location-specific questions.

MEASUREMENTS

The IAC Policy Index was analyzed with frequency, typical occasion quantity, and volume consumed. Analyses used mixed models that included interactions between country IAC Policy Index score and age group, gender, and education level.

FINDINGS

Each increase in IAC policy index score (reflecting more effective alcohol policy) was associated with a 13.9% decrease in drinking frequency (p = 0.006) and a 16.5% decrease in volume (p = 0.001). With each increase in IAC Policy Index score, both genders decreased for all three measures, but men less so than women. Women decreased their typical occasion quantity by 1.2% (p = 0.006), frequency by 3.1% (p < 0.001), and total volume by 4.2% (p < 0.001) compared to men. Low and mid-education groups decreased their typical occasion quantity by 2.6% (p < 0.001) and 1.6% (p = 0.001), respectively, compared to high education, while for drinking frequency the low education group increased by 7.0% (p < 0.001). There was an overall effect of age (F = 19.27, p < 0.0001), with 18-19 and 20-24-year-olds showing the largest decreases in typical occasion quantity with increasing IAC policy index score.

CONCLUSIONS

The IAC Policy Index, reflecting four effective policies, was associated with volume and frequency of drinking across 10 diverse countries. Each increase in the IAC Policy Index was associated with lower typical quantities consumed among groups reporting heavy drinking: young adults and less well-educated. There is value in implementing such alcohol policies and a need to accelerate their uptake globally.

Estimation of seasonal influenza disease burden using sentinel site data in Pakistan 2017–2019: A cross‐sectional study

Background

The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic highlighted the need for reliable disease burden estimation from low‐ and middle‐income countries like Pakistan. We designed retrospective age‐stratified estimation of influenza‐related severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) incidence in Islamabad Pakistan 2017–2019.

Materials and Methods

The catchment area was mapped on SARI data from one designated influenza sentinel site and other healthcare facilities in the Islamabad region. The incidence rate was calculated as per 100,000 for each age group with 95% confidence interval.

Results

The catchment population for the sentinel site was 0.7 million against the total denominator of 1.015 million, and incidence rates were adjusted. During January 2017 to December 2019, among 13,905 hospitalizations, 6715 (48%) patients were enrolled; 1208 of these (18%) were positive for influenza. During 2017, influenza A/H3 dominated with 52% detections followed by A(H1N1)pdm09 (35%) and influenza B (13%). Furthermore, elderly 65+ years age group had highest hospitalizations and influenza positive. The incidence rates of all cause respiratory and influenza‐related SARI were highest among children >5 years; highest incidence was found in 0 to 11 month/year group with 424/100,000 cases and lowest in 5–15 years 56/100,000. The estimated average annual influenza‐associated hospitalization percentage was 29.3% during the study period.

Conclusion

Influenza accounts for a significant proportion of respiratory morbidity and hospitalization. These estimates would enable governments for evidence‐based decisions and priority allocation of health resources. It is necessary to test for other respiratory pathogens for more clear disease burden estimation.

Effective alcohol policies and lifetime abstinence: An analysis of the International Alcohol Control policy index

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol abstinence remains common among adults globally, although low and middle-income countries are experiencing declines in abstention. The effect of alcohol policies on lifetime abstinence is poorly understood. The International Alcohol Control (IAC) policy index was developed to benchmark and monitor the uptake of effective alcohol policies and has shown strong associations with alcohol per capita consumption and drinking patterns. Uniquely, the index incorporates both policy 'stringency' and 'impact', reflecting policy implementation and enforcement, across effective policies. Here we assessed the association of the IAC policy index with lifetime abstinence in a diverse sample of jurisdictions.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between the IAC policy index score, and its components, and lifetime abstinence among adults (15+ years) in 13 high and middle-income jurisdictions. We examined the correlations for each component of the index and stringency and impact separately.

RESULTS

Overall, the total IAC policy index scores were positively correlated with lifetime abstinence (r = 0.76), as were both the stringency (r = 0.62) and impact (r = 0.82) scores. Marketing restrictions showed higher correlations with lifetime abstinence than other policy domains (r = 0.80), including restrictions on physical availability, pricing policies and drink-driving prevention.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that restricting alcohol marketing could be an important policy for the protection of alcohol abstention. The IAC policy index may be a useful tool to benchmark the performance of alcohol policy in supporting alcohol abstention in high and middle-income countries.

Pregnancy Interventions to Improve Birth Outcomes: What Are the Effects on Maternal Outcomes? A Scoping Review

Objectives: Interventions in pregnancy are commonly evaluated for their effects on birth outcomes because maternal infection and poor nutrition are the primary contributors to adverse pregnancy outcomes, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the extent to which such interventions directly impact maternal health and nutrition has not been succinctly characterized.

Methods: We conducted a scoping review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of 27 pregnancy interventions to summarize the evidence of impact on maternal outcomes.

Results: Overall, these were reported incompletely, and we failed to find any evidence for eight interventions. Influenza vaccination, insecticide-treated bed nets, intermittent preventive treatment for malaria, anthelmintic therapy, and treatment of bacterial vaginosis, asymptomatic bacteriuria, and periodontal disease during pregnancy provided direct benefit to women, with reductions in infection risk. Nutritional interventions such as micronutrient supplementation and balanced energy and protein improved outcomes of maternal anemia and gestational weight gain, particularly in deficient populations. Calcium and low dose aspirin significantly reduced the risk of pre-eclampsia.

Conclusion: These findings highlight antenatal interventions benefitting maternal health and provide insights into pathways for impacting birth and infant outcomes.

Affirmative action in healthcare resource allocation: Vaccines, ventilators and race

This article is about the potential justification for deploying some form of affirmative action (AA) in the context of healthcare, and in particular in relation to the pandemic. We call this Affirmative Action in healthcare Resource Allocation (AARA). Specifically, we aim to investigate whether the rationale and justifications for using prioritization policies based on race in education and employment apply in a healthcare setting, and in particular to the COVID-19 pandemic. We concentrate in this article on vaccines and ventilators because these are both highly scarce resources in the pandemic, and there has been a need to develop policies for allocating them. However, as will become clear, the ethical considerations relating to them may diverge. We first set out two rationales for AAs and what they might entail in a healthcare setting. We then consider some disanalogies between AA and AARA, as well as the different implications of AARA for allocating ventilators as opposed to vaccines. Finally, we consider some of the practical ways in which AARA could be implemented, and conclude by responding to some key objections.

Effectiveness and safety of dolutegravir and raltegravir for treating children and adolescents living with HIV: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Globally about 1.7 million children were living with HIV in 2020. Two integrase strand transfer inhibitors, dolutegravir and raltegravir, are increasingly used in children. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effectiveness and safety of dolutegravir and raltegravir in children and adolescents living with HIV, aged 0-19 years.

METHODS

Sources included MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, clinical trial registries, abstracts from key conferences and reference list searching. Observational studies and clinical trials published January 2009-March 2021 were eligible. Outcomes included efficacy/effectiveness (CD4 counts and viral load) and/or safety outcomes (mortality, grade 3/4 adverse events and treatment discontinuation) through 6 months or more post-treatment initiation. Risk of bias was assessed using previously published tools appropriate for the study design. Narrative syntheses were conducted.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In total, 3626 abstracts and 371 papers were screened. Eleven studies, including 2330 children/adolescents, reported data on dolutegravir: one randomized controlled trial (RCT; low risk of bias), one single-arm trial (unclear risk of bias) and nine cohort studies (three low risk of bias, two unclear risk and four high risk). Ten studies, including 649 children/adolescents receiving raltegravir, were identified: one RCT (low risk of bias), one single-arm trial (low risk of bias) and eight cohort studies (four low risk of bias, three unclear risk and one high risk). Viral suppression levels in children/adolescents at 12 months were high (>70%) in most studies assessing dolutegravir (mostly second- or subsequent-line, or mixed treatment lines), and varied from 42% (5/12) to 83% (44/53) at 12 months in studies assessing raltegravir (mostly second- or subsequent-line). Across all studies assessing dolutegravir or raltegravir, grade 3/4 adverse events (clinical and/or laboratory) were reported in 0-50% of subjects, few resulted in discontinuation, few were drug related and no deaths were attributed to either drug.

CONCLUSIONS

These reassuring findings suggest that dolutegravir and raltegravir are effective and safe as preferred regimens in children and adolescents living with HIV. With the rollout of dolutegravir in paediatric populations already underway, it is critical that data are collected on safety and effectiveness in infants, children and adolescents, including on longer-term outcomes, such as weight and metabolic changes.

PROTOCOL: Digital interventions to reduce social isolation and loneliness in older adults: An evidence and gap map

This is the protocol for a Campbell systematic review. The objectives are as follows: the aim is to map available evidence on the effects of digital interventions to mitigate social isolation and/or loneliness in older adults in all settings except hospital settings.

Switching Among Biosimilars: A Review of Clinical Evidence

Biological medicines have improved patients’ outcomes, but their high costs may limit access. Biosimilars, alternatives that have demonstrated high similarity in terms of quality, safety, and efficacy to an already licensed originator biological product, could increase competition and decrease prices. Given the expanding number of biosimilars, patients may switch from originator to biosimilar or among biosimilars. Randomized trials and observational studies conducted with multiple biosimilars over many disease areas confirmed the safety and efficacy of switching from originator to biosimilar. This study summarizes evidence on switching between biosimilars for which there are concerns to provide future guidance. A systematic search (MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) for studies on anti-TNF agents, assessing clinical efficacy and safety of biosimilar-to-biosimilar switch in chronic inflammatory diseases, was performed. We retrieved 320 records and included 19 clinical studies. One study with historical control compared switching between biosimilars to maintenance of the same biosimilar. Ten were controlled cohort studies comparing switching between two biosimilars vs. switching from originator to a biosimilar or vs. multiple switches. Eight were single-arm cohort studies, where participants switched from one biosimilar to another, and the outcomes were compared before and after the switch. Overall, these studies did not highlight significant concerns in switching between biosimilars. Therefore, switching studies seem difficult to perform and unnecessary with the body of evidence suggesting no real problems in practice coupled with stringent regulatory requirements. Monitoring the use of biosimilars in clinical practice could support clinical decision-making, rational use of biological medicines, and help to further realize possible savings.

Implementation of HCV screening in the 1969-1989 birth-cohort undergoing COVID-19 vaccination

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The World Health Organization (WHO) goal of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by 2030 relies on the scaling-up of both identification and linkage to care of the infected population, worldwide. In Italy, the estimated burden of HCV carriers who are unaware of their infection amounts to 200 000 persons, a projection that reinforces the need for broadening population access to effective screening programmes.

METHODS

A pivotal screening programme targeting subjects born between 1969 and 1989 has been conducted in Lombardy, Northern Italy, where point-of-care (POC) testing was offered for free concomitantly to COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

Amongst 7219 subjects born between 1969 and 1989 who underwent HCV screening through POC, 7 (0.10%) subjects tested anti-HCV positive: 5 (0.07%) had confirmed anti-HCV positivity (Table 1) and 4 of them (0.05%) were HCV-RNA positive by standard confirmation tests.

CONCLUSIONS

This pivotal study demonstrated the feasibility of a POC-based anti-HCV screening programme in young adults undergoing COVID-19 vaccination. The prevalence of HCV infection in subjects born in the 1969-1989 cohort in Italy seems to be lower than previously estimated. Whether the extension of this programme to subjects born before 1969 could lead to improved screening effectiveness should be a matter of debate.

COVID-19 Risk Perception, Trust in Institutions and Negative Affect Drive Positive COVID-19 Vaccine Intentions

Objectives: To investigate country-specific drivers and barriers of positive COVID-19 vaccine intentions in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), one of the two entities comprising Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Methods: A cross-sectional study design was used, using an online behavioural insights survey tool adapted to the context of FBiH. Three survey waves, each including approximately 1,000 adults, were conducted in July, September and December 2020. Fixed-effects regression analysis was used to explore the drivers, barriers and attitudes towards accepting a future COVID-19 vaccine.

Results: COVID-19 risk perception, trust in health institutions and negative affect were positive predictors of positive COVID-19 vaccine intentions, as were living in urban areas and having a college education (versus having primary or secondary education). Conversely, being female, feeling that the pandemic was overhyped by the media and the country of vaccine production were negative predictors.

Conclusion: This study provided snapshots on the state of attitudes regarding a future COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy in 2020. These findings provided useful insights into the efforts to introduce and roll out the COVID-19 vaccines in FBiH. Further efforts should focus on better understanding the demographic, cultural and behavioural contexts of COVID-related vaccination perceptions in FBiH.

Household transmission of COVID-19 among the earliest cases in Antananarivo, Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Households are among the highest risk for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In sub-Saharan Africa, very few studies have described household transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work aimed to describe the epidemiologic parameters and analyze the secondary attack rate (SAR) in Antananarivo, Madagascar, following the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the country in March 2020.

METHODS

A prospective case-ascertained study of all identified close contacts of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections was conducted in Antananarivo from March to June 2020. Cases and household contacts were followed for 21 days. We estimated epidemic parameters of disease transmission by fitting parametric distributions based on infector-infected paired data. We assessed factors influencing transmission risk by analyzing the SAR.

FINDINGS

Overall, we included 96 index cases and 179 household contacts. Adjusted with the best-fit normal distribution, the incubation period was 4.1 days (95% CI 0.7-7.5]). The serial interval was 6.0 days (95% CI [2.4-9.6]) after adjusting with the best-fit Weibull distribution. On average, each index case infected 1.6 family members (95%CI [0.9-2.3]). The mean SAR among close contacts was 38.8% (95% CI [19.5-58.2]) with the best-fit gamma distribution. Contacts older than 35 years old were more likely to be infected, and the highest SAR was found among them.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study provide key insights into the epidemiology of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar. High rates of household transmission were found in Antananarivo, emphasizing the need for preventive measures to reduce community transmission.

Psychosocial interventions for improving engagement in care and health and behavioural outcomes for adolescents and young people living with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Adolescents and young people comprise a growing proportion of new HIV infections globally, yet current approaches do not effectively engage this group, and adolescent HIV-related outcomes are the poorest among all age groups. Providing psychosocial interventions incorporating psychological, social, and/or behavioural approaches offer a potential pathway to improve engagement in care and health and behavioural outcomes among adolescents and young people living with HIV (AYPLHIV).

METHODS

A systematic search of all peer-reviewed papers published between January 2000 and July 2020 was conducted through four electronic databases (Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, PubMed and Scopus). We included randomized controlled trials evaluating psychosocial interventions aimed at improving engagement in care and health and behavioural outcomes of AYPLHIV aged 10 to 24 years.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Thirty relevant studies were identified. Studies took place in the United States (n = 18, 60%), sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe) and Southeast Asia (Thailand). Outcomes of interest included adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), ART knowledge, viral load data, sexual risk behaviours, sexual risk knowledge, retention in care and linkage to care. Overall, psychosocial interventions for AYPLHIV showed important, small-to-moderate effects on adherence to ART (SMD = 0.3907, 95% CI: 0.1059 to 0.6754, 21 studies, n = 2647) and viral load (SMD = -0.2607, 95% CI -04518 to -0.0696, 12 studies, n = 1566). The psychosocial interventions reviewed did not demonstrate significant impacts on retention in care (n = 8), sexual risk behaviours and knowledge (n = 13), viral suppression (n = 4), undetectable viral load (n = 5) or linkage to care (n = 1) among AYPLHIV. No studies measured transition to adult services. Effective interventions employed various approaches, including digital and lay health worker delivery, which hold promise for scaling interventions in the context of COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights the potential of psychosocial interventions in improving health outcomes in AYPLHIV. However, more research needs to be conducted on interventions that can effectively reduce sexual risk behaviours of AYPLHIV, as well as those that can strengthen engagement in care. Further investment is needed to ensure that these interventions are cost-effective, sustainable and resilient in the face of resource constraints and global challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Loneliness Among Older Adults in Latin America, China, and India: Prevalence, Correlates and Association With Mortality

Objectives: This study was designed to explore prevalence and correlates of self-reported loneliness and to investigate whether loneliness predicts mortality among older adults (aged 65 or above) in Latin America, China and India. Methods: The study investigated population-based cross-sectional (2003-2007) and longitudinal surveys (follow-up 2007-2010) from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group project. Poisson regression and Cox regression analyses were conducted to analyse correlates of loneliness and its association with mortality. Results: The standardised prevalence of loneliness varied between 25.3 and 32.4% in Latin America and was 18.3% in India. China showed a low prevalence of loneliness (3.8%). In pooled meta-analyses, there was robust evidence to support an association between loneliness and mortality across Latin American countries (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26, I2 = 10.1%) and China (HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.03-2.41), but there were no associations in India. Conclusion: Our findings suggest potential cultural variances may exist in the concept of loneliness in older age. The effect of loneliness upon mortality is consistent across different cultural settings excluding India. Loneliness should therefore be considered as a potential dimension of public health among older populations.

Optimizing infant HIV diagnosis with additional screening at immunization clinics in three sub-Saharan African settings: a cost-effectiveness analysis

INTRODUCTION

Uptake of early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) varies widely across sub-Saharan African settings. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of universal maternal HIV screening at infant immunization visits, with referral to EID and maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation.

METHODS

Using the CEPAC-Pediatric model, we compared two strategies for infants born in 2017 in Côte d'Ivoire (CI), South Africa (SA), and Zimbabwe: (1) existing EID programmes offering six-week nucleic acid testing (NAT) for infants with known HIV exposure (EID), and (2) EID plus universal maternal HIV screening at six-week infant immunization visits, leading to referral for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation (screen-and-test). Model inputs included published Ivoirian/South African/Zimbabwean data: maternal HIV prevalence (4.8/30.8/16.1%), current uptake of EID (40/95/65%) and six-week immunization attendance (99/74/94%). Referral rates for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation after screen-and-test were 80%. Costs included NAT ($24/infant), maternal screening ($10/mother-infant pair), ART ($5 to 31/month) and HIV care ($15 to 190/month). Model outcomes included mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) among HIV-exposed infants, and life expectancy (LE) and mean lifetime per-person costs for children with HIV (CWH) and all children born in 2017. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using discounted (3%/year) lifetime costs and LE for all children. We considered two cost-effectiveness thresholds in each country: (1) the per-capita GDP ($1720/6380/2150) per year-of-life saved (YLS), and (2) the CEPAC-generated ICER of offering 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens (e.g. offering second-line ART; $520/500/580/YLS).

RESULTS

With EID, projected six-week MTCT was 9.3% (CI), 4.2% (SA) and 5.2% (Zimbabwe). Screen-and-test decreased total MTCT by 0.2% to 0.5%, improved LE by 2.0 to 3.5 years for CWH and 0.03 to 0.07 years for all children, and increased discounted costs by $17 to 22/child (all children). The ICER of screen-and-test compared to EID was $1340/YLS (CI), $650/YLS (SA) and $670/YLS (Zimbabwe), below the per-capita GDP but above the ICER of 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens in all countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal maternal HIV screening at immunization visits with referral to EID and maternal ART initiation may reduce MTCT, improve paediatric LE, and be of comparable value to current HIV-related interventions in high maternal HIV prevalence settings like SA and Zimbabwe.