Attention based dynamic graph neural network for asset pricing

Recent studies suggest that networks among firms (sectors) play a vital role in asset pricing. This paper investigates these implications and develops a novel end-to-end graph neural network model for asset pricing by combining and modifying two state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. First, we apply the graph attention mechanism to learn dynamic network structures of the equity market over time and then use a recurrent convolutional neural network to diffuse and propagate firms' information into the learned networks. This novel approach allows us to model the implications of networks along with the characteristics of the dynamic comovement of asset prices. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in both predicting returns and improving portfolio performance. Our approach demonstrates persistent performance in different sensitivity tests and simulated data. We also show that the dynamic network learned from our proposed model captures major market events over time. Our model is highly effective in recognizing the network structure in the market and predicting equity returns and provides valuable market information to regulators and investors.

To wait, or too late? Modeling the effects of delayed ofatumumab treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Several disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) reduce relapse rates and slow disease progression. RRMS DMTs have varying efficacy and administration routes; DMTs prescribed first may not be the most effective on relapses or disease progression. Here, we aimed to quantify the benefit of initiating ofatumumab, a high-efficacy DMT, earlier in the treatment pathway.

METHODS

Aggregate data from a real-world cohort of patients with RRMS, who were eligible for dimethyl fumarate (DMF) or ofatumumab treatment within the UK National Health Service (N = 615), were used to produce a simulated patient cohort. The cohort was tracked through a discrete event simulation (DES) model, based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), with a lifetime time horizon. Outcomes assessed were: mean number of relapses, time to wheelchair (EDSS ≥7), and time to death. Two modeling approaches were used. The first compared outcomes between two treatment sequences (base case: ofatumumab to natalizumab versus DMF to ofatumumab). The second incorporated a time-specific delay of 1-5 years for switching from DMF to ofatumumab; the difference in outcomes as a function of increasing delay to ofatumumab are reported.

RESULTS

Compared with delayed ofatumumab, fewer relapses and increased time to wheelchair were predicted for earlier ofatumumab in the treatment-sequence approach (mean relapses over the lifetime time horizon: 8.63 versus 9.00; time to wheelchair: 17.55 versus 16.60 years). Time to death was similar for both sequences. At Year 10, a numerically greater proportion of patients receiving earlier ofatumumab had mild disease (EDSS 0-3: 44.12% versus 40.06%). Greater differences, reflecting poorer outcomes, were predicted for relapses and time to wheelchair with increasing delays to ofatumumab treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The DES model provided a means by which the magnitude of benefit associated with earlier ofatumumab initiation could be quantified; fewer relapses and a prolonged time to wheelchair were predicted.

Evaluating the cost-utility of intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin versus radical cystectomy in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the UK

AIMS

Approximately 75% of bladder cancer (BC) cases present as non-muscle-invasive BC (NMIBC). In patients with high-risk NMIBC, the mainstay treatment is intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), with immediate radical cystectomy (RC) as an alternative treatment option. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the cost-utility of BCG versus RC in patients with high-risk NMIBC from the UK healthcare payer perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A six-state Markov model was developed that covered controlled disease, recurrence, progression to muscle-invasive BC, metastatic disease, and death. The model included adverse events of BCG and RC and monitoring and palliative care. Drug costs were obtained from the British National Formulary. Intravesical delivery, RC, and monitoring costs were sourced from the National Tariff Payment System and the literature. Utility data were obtained from the literature. Analyses were run over a 30-year time horizon, with future costs and effects discounted at 3.5% per annum. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The base case analysis comparing BCG with RC showed that BCG would increase life expectancy by 0.88 years versus RC, from 7.74 to 8.62 years. BCG resulted in an increase of 0.76 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) versus RC, from 5.63 to 6.39 QALYs. Patients incurred lower lifetime costs if treated with BCG (£47,753) than with RC (£64,264). Cost savings were mainly driven by the lower cost of BCG versus RC, and palliative care costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that results were robust to assumptions.

LIMITATIONS

The evidence base informing efficacy estimates of BCG is heterogeneous as different BCG administration schedules were reported in the literature, while incidence and cost data on some BCG-associated adverse events were sparse.

CONCLUSIONS

Intravesical BCG led to increased QALYs and reduced costs versus RC for patients with high-risk NMIBC from the UK healthcare payer perspective.

Clinical and economic impact of ferric carboxymaltose treatment for iron deficiency in patients stabilized following acute heart failure: a multinational study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate clinical events and evaluate the financial implications of introducing ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) to treat iron deficiency (ID) at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50% in the UK, Switzerland and Italy.

METHODS

A decision analytic cost-offset model was developed to evaluate the costs associated with introducing FCM for all eligible patients in three countries compared to a world without FCM, over a five-year time horizon. Data from AFFIRM-AHF clinical trial were used to model clinical outcomes, using an established cohort state-transition Markov model. Country-specific prevalence estimates were derived using data from real-world studies to extrapolate number of events and consequent cost totals to the population at risk on a national scale.

RESULTS

The cost-offset modeling demonstrated that FCM is projected to be a cost-saving intervention in all three country settings over a five-year time horizon. Savings were driven primarily by reduced hospitalizations and avoided cardiovascular deaths, with net cost savings of -£14,008,238, -CHF25,456,455 and -€105,295,146 incurred to the UK, Switzerland and Italy, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Although AFFIRM-AHF was a multinational trial, efficacy data per country was not sufficiently large to enable country-specific analysis, therefore overall clinical parameters have been assumed to apply to all countries.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides further evidence of the potential cost savings achievable by treating ID with FCM at discharge in patients hospitalized for AHF with LVEF <50%. The value of FCM treatment within the healthcare systems of the UK, Switzerland and Italy was demonstrated even within a limited time frame of one year, with consistent cost savings indicated over a longer term.

Cost-effectiveness of apixaban and rivaroxaban in thromboprophylaxis of cancer patients treated with chemotherapy in Spain

BACKGROUND

Apixaban and rivaroxaban are two direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) recommended for thromboprophylaxis in cancer patients treated with chemotherapy in an ambulatory setting. We aimed to assess the cost-utility of thromboprophylaxis with apixaban and rivaroxaban vs no thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory cancer patients starting chemotherapy with an intermediate-to-high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), Khorana score ≥ 2 points.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from the perspective of Spain's National Health System (NHS) using an analytical decision model in the short-term (180 days) and a Markov model in the long-term (5 years). Transition probabilities were obtained from randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials of apixaban and rivaroxaban in adult ambulatory patients with cancer at risk for VTE, treated with chemotherapy (AVERT and CASSINI trials). The costs (€2,021) were taken from Spanish sources. The utilities of the model were obtained through the EQ-5D questionnaire. Deterministic (base case) and probabilistic (second-order Monte Carlo simulation) analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, apixaban generated a cost per patient of €1,082 ± 187, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of €713-1,442, while no prophylaxis produced a cost per patient of €1,146 ± 218, with a 95% CI of €700-1,491, with a saving of €64 per patient and a gain of 0.008 QALYs. Likewise, rivaroxaban provided a cost per patient of €993 ± 133, with a 95% CI of €748-1,310, while no prophylaxis produced a cost per patient of €872 ± 152, with a 95% CI of €602-1,250, with an additional expense of €121 per patient and a gain of 0.008 QALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

In thromboprophylaxis of cancer patients, the use of apixaban and rivaroxaban generated similar costs compared to non-prophylaxis, without the difference found being statistically significant, with a clinically insignificant QALY gain.

Adopting a portfolio of ultrasonic and advanced bipolar electrosurgery devices from a single manufacturer compared to currently used ultrasonic and advanced bipolar devices: a probabilistic budget impact analysis from a Spanish hospital perspective

AIMS

Advanced energy devices are commonly used in electrosurgery, including ultrasonic and advanced bipolar (ABP) devices. Smoke evacuation and reusable dispersive electrodes are also utilized during electrosurgery to improve staff and patient safety. This study assessed the budget impact of adopting a portfolio of Ethicon energy devices compared to devices from other manufacturers from a Spanish hospital perspective.

METHODS

The main analysis compared the Ethicon advanced energy device portfolio (ultrasonic and ABP devices) to Non-Ethicon advanced energy devices. It was assumed that 4,000 procedures using one advanced energy device each were performed annually, and the cost impact of operating room time, length of stay, and transfusions were considered. A probabilistic budget impact analysis with 10,000 iterations was conducted for generalizability to other hospitals in Spain and Europe. Secondary analysis assessed whether cost savings from the Ethicon advanced energy device portfolio could offset costs of adopting smoke evacuation and reusable dispersive electrodes (Full Ethicon energy portfolio).

RESULTS

In the main analysis, the annual budget impact of introducing the Ethicon advanced energy device portfolio was cost saving in 79.8% of probabilistic iterations (mean: -€945,214; 95% credible interval [CrI]: -€3,242,710; €1,285,942) with a mean budget impact per procedure of -€236 (95% CrI: -€811; €321). In the secondary analysis, adding smoke evacuation and reusable dispersive electrodes was still cost saving in 75.3% of iterations compared to Non-Ethicon advanced energy devices (mean: -€778,208; 95% CrI: -€3,075,086; €1,464,728) with a mean budget impact per procedure of -€97 (95% CrI: -€384; €183). Savings resulted from differences in operating room time, length of hospital stay, and volume of disposable electrodes.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting Ethicon advanced energy devices demonstrated economic benefits compared to non-Ethicon devices. Introducing the advanced portfolio may improve surgical care quality and the full portfolio was cost saving while improving OR safety for staff and patients.

A modeling study of the effect of social distancing policies on the early spread of coronavirus disease 2019: a case of South Korea

The social distancing policy is an effective way to prevent the spread of infectious diseases in the initial phase of their outbreak when medical evidence to support a particular course of treatment is deficient. While studies on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have mainly focused on the effects of specific measures (e.g., school and workplace closures and restrictions on movement), few investigated the characteristics of epidemic trends in response to the intensity of the policy and the amount of time required for policy measures to take effect. This study employs the SIRD (susceptible, infected, recovered, and deceased) model to analyze the COVID-19 epidemic trend according to the intensity of the social distancing policy in South Korea. The model reveals that the reproduction number began at 5.58 and fluctuated between 0.14 and 1.72 during the study period in accordance with different policy intensities. At the beginning of the social distancing policy, restrictions on public facility use were likely to have been effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19. When the intervention was relaxed, the transmission potential increased significantly. According to the reproduction number, social distancing policies prove to be effective after 13-19 days of implementation; however, as the pandemic progressed, this period extended from 13-14 to 18-19 days for the same effect. This suggests that governments need to consider not only the intensity of the social distancing policy, but also people's low responsiveness as the pandemic remains prevalent over time. It is also recommended they take preemptive action to ensure sufficient time for the policy to achieve its stated goal.

Cost-effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants compared to low-molecular-weight-heparins for treatment of cancer associated venous thromboembolism in Spain

AIM

Recent studies have compared the efficacy and safety of direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOAC) and low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) for cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, there is no available cost-effectiveness analysis comparing DOAC and LMWH. The study aimed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of DOAC (apixaban, edoxaban, and rivaroxaban) vs. LMWH for the treatment of cancer-associated VTE in Spain from the Spanish healthcare system perspective.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model with a 12-month time horizon. The states included pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, major and non-major bleeding, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, post-thrombotic syndrome, and death. The use of medical resources and drug costs were obtained from the 2021 Spanish Ministry of Health database, and the main references for obtaining the outcomes were derived from Caravaggio, Hokusai VTE Cancer, ADAM VTE, and SELECT-D trials. We performed a deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to validate the robustness. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) scores cost per life-year (€/LY) gained and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (€/QALY) gained.

RESULTS

The 12-month cost of DOAC was 1,994€ (apixaban 1,944€, edoxaban 1,968€, rivaroxaban 2,122€) and 2,152€ for LMWH. The amount of QALY for DOAC was 0.54 (apixaban 0.55, rivaroxaban 0.53, and edoxaban 0.52) and 0.53 for LMWH. We observed similar results for LYs. ICER scores in terms both of €/LY and €/QALY show that DOAC is dominant over LMWH and apixaban showed the best profile.

LIMITATIONS

Our research is based on an indirect comparison of a short-term clinical trial.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that DOAC is cost-effective and cost-saving compared to LMWH in treating VTE.

Intravenous iron for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in China: a patient-level simulation model and cost-utility analysis comparing ferric derisomaltose with iron sucrose

OBJECTIVES

Two intravenous (IV) iron formulations, ferric derisomaltose (FDI) and iron sucrose (IS), are currently available for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in China. Clinical studies have demonstrated that FDI has an improved efficacy and safety profile versus IS, while requiring fewer infusions to correct iron deficits. Based on these findings, the present study evaluated the costs and benefits of FDI and IS for the treatment of IDA, from a healthcare system and societal perspective in China.

METHODS

A patient-level model was developed to project time to hematological response and incidence of cardiovascular adverse events and hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) associated with FDI and IS over 5 years. Costs included iron acquisition, administration, and adverse event/HSR treatment costs, based on published studies, fee schedules, and a physician survey. Health state utilities associated with adverse events, HSRs, and the number of infusions were obtained from the literature and a time trade-off survey.

RESULTS

From a healthcare system perspective, FDI was associated with incremental costs of RMB 1,934 (purchasing power parity USD 462) and incremental quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.078 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) versus IS, yielding an incremental cost-utility ratio of RMB 24,901 (USD 5,949) in the base case scenario. From a societal perspective, FDI was associated with reduced total costs and therefore dominant versus IS.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations included the absence of clinical data specific to China and insufficient data to model persistence with treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

This was the first cost-utility analysis comparing FDI and IS for the treatment of IDA in China. Based on a patient-level model, FDI was found to improve quality of life and reduce administration and adverse events costs relative to IS. Using the 2020 Chinese gross domestic product per capita of RMB 72,447 (USD 17,307) as a cost-effectiveness threshold, FDI would be considered cost-effective in China.

The PRIME Type 2 Diabetes Model: a novel, patient-level model for estimating long-term clinical and cost outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The growing burden of diabetes mellitus and recent progress in understanding cardiovascular outcomes for type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients continue to make the disease a priority for healthcare decision-makers around the world. Our objective was to develop a new, product-independent model capable of projecting long-term clinical and cost outcomes for populations with T2D to support health economic evaluation.

METHODS

Following a systematic literature review to identify longitudinal study data, existing T2D models and risk formulae for T2D populations, a model was developed (the PRIME Type 2 Diabetes Model [PRIME T2D Model]) in line with good practice guidelines to simulate disease progression, diabetes-related complications and mortality. The model runs as a patient-level simulation and is capable of simulating treatment algorithms and risk factor progression, and projecting the cumulative incidence of macrovascular and microvascular complications as well as hypoglycemic events. The PRIME T2D Model can report clinical outcomes, quality-adjusted life expectancy, direct and indirect costs, along with standard measures of cost-effectiveness and is capable of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Several approaches novel to T2D modeling were utilized, such as combining risk formulae using a weighted model averaging approach that takes into account patient characteristics to evaluate complication risk.

RESULTS

Validation analyses comparing modeled outcomes with published studies demonstrated that the PRIME T2D Model projects long-term patient outcomes consistent with those reported for a number of long-term studies, including cardiovascular outcomes trials. All root mean squared deviation (RMSD) values for internal validations (against published studies used to develop the model) were 1.1% or less and all external validation RMSDs were 3.7% or less.

CONCLUSIONS

The PRIME T2D Model is a product-independent analysis tool that is available online and offers new approaches to long-standing challenges in diabetes modeling and may become a useful tool for informing healthcare policy.HIGHLIGHTSThe PRIME Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) Model is a new, product-independent simulation model.The model offers new approaches to long-standing challenges in diabetes modeling.PRIME T2D Model projects outcomes consistent with those from clinical trials.The model is designed to be a useful tool for informing healthcare policy in T2D.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score test in node-positive early breast cancer

AIMS

Given the high rate of adverse events and high cost of adjuvant chemotherapy, it is optimal to avoid its use when endocrine therapy is equally effective at preventing distant recurrence of early breast cancer. The Oncotype DX test is a predictive and prognostic multigene assay used to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer based on a Recurrence Score (RS) result. A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis compared the Oncotype DX test to clinical risk tools alone for HR+/HER2- node-positive (1-3 axillary lymph nodes) early breast cancer patients based on results from the RxPONDER trial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A decision-tree and Markov model was developed in Microsoft Excel. Distributions of patients and distant recurrence probabilities with endocrine and chemo-endocrine therapy were derived from the RxPONDER trial, TransATAC and SWOG-8814. Chemotherapy assignment data were obtained from the Clalit registry. The cost of adjuvant chemotherapy was based on the distribution of treatments used in the UK combined with published drug unit costs in the UK. The cost of distant recurrence and health state utility values were obtained from literature.

RESULTS

The Oncotype DX test was found to be more effective (with an estimated 0.02 additional QALYs) at a lower estimated cost (-£989) compared to clinical risk tools alone. The results did not substantially change with more conservative clinical and cost scenarios. The RxPONDER trial was restricted to RS 0-25, and data synthesis with other studies was required to inform the analysis, which increased uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

The Oncotype DX test is highly likely to be cost-effective in node-positive early breast cancer. The results were driven by reduction in the use of chemotherapy with consequence avoidance of the costs and harmful effects of chemotherapy. Targeted treatment of a minority (11%) of women with RS 26-100 who benefit from chemotherapy reduced cost and improved survival.

Modification of treatment-sequence model with a customizable number of treatments to better reflect contemporary and future clinical practice in moderate to severe psoriasis

AIMS

Existing treatment-sequence models for psoriasis are limited by lines of treatments included. We sought to more accurately capture the patient experience with an increasing number of treatments while maintaining the complexity and transparency of current models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We adapted a standard treatment-sequence model for psoriasis with two lines of active treatments followed by best supportive care (BSC). The first line was used to model the targeted treatments for comparison (Biologic A or B). The second line was used potentially to model all treatments (excluding the first-line treatment) before BSC, termed the basket of biologics (BoB). First-line treatment and the BoB were modeled with an induction and maintenance phase. The BoB efficacy was assumed to be the average of all treatments included and the BoB annual discontinuation rate was based on the number of treatments included and their individual annual discontinuation rate. A varying number of treatments in the BoB were tested (1, 5, 10). Model inputs were from published literature.

RESULTS

In our example, when the number of treatments in the BoB increased from 1 to 10, the annual discontinuation rate of the BoB dropped from 16.5% to 1.2%. Time on BoB increased from 4.16 to 19.16 years and the time on BSC decreased from 28.28 to 13.29 years. Total costs and quality-adjusted life years increased with an increasing number of treatments in the BoB.

LIMITATIONS

The properties of the BoB were simplified in order to maintain the transparency of the model. Results may differ if individual treatments in the BoB are modeled line by line.

CONCLUSIONS

Modification with the BoB allows a greater number of treatments within the model, providing a closer reflection of clinical reality, and has implications for evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of psoriasis treatments.

Stick or twist? Cost-effectiveness of siponimod compared with continuing existing disease-modifying therapies in the treatment of active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in the UK

OBJECTIVE

Identification of the phenotypic transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is often delayed due to disease complexity and an unwillingness to withdraw RRMS disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), driven by limited SPMS treatment options. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence for efficacy in patients with SPMS, DMTs licensed for RRMS are frequently continued into the early stages of SPMS. The cost-effectiveness of oral siponimod, an active SPMS DMT, versus continued oral or infused RRMS DMTs for patients with active SPMS, was evaluated.

METHODS

A cohort Markov model based on disease progression through Expanded Disability Status Scale health states, with annual cycles and lifetime horizon, was employed to determine the cost-effectiveness of siponimod from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective for patients with active SPMS. Baseline characteristics, health state utility values, hazard ratios for time to 6-month confirmed disability progression, annualized relapse rate ratios and adverse events for siponimod were obtained from the phase 3 EXPAND clinical trial, supplemented by published literature. Published costs, resource use data and comparator efficacy data were obtained from the literature and, in the absence of data, reasonable assumptions were made.

RESULTS

Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were greater for siponimod versus all comparators (3.45 versus 2.69-2.83). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as cost per QALY, for siponimod versus natalizumab (dominant), ocrelizumab (£4,760), fingolimod (£10,033) and dimethyl fumarate (£15,837) indicated that siponimod was cost-effective at the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Recognition of active SPMS and treatment of this phenotype with siponimod offers a cost-effective and clinically beneficial treatment approach compared with the continuation of oral or infused RRMS DMTs.

Quantifying spillover benefits in value assessment: a case study of increased graft survival on the US kidney transplant waitlist

AIM

To quantify the wider impacts of increased graft survival on the size of the kidney transplant waitlist and health and economic outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The analysis employed known steady-state solutions to a double-queueing system as well as simulations of this system. Baseline input parameters were sourced from the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network and the United States Renal Data System. Three increased graft survival scenarios were modeled: decreases in repeat transplant candidates joining the waitlist of 25%, 50%, and 100%.

RESULTS

Under the three scenarios, we estimated that the US waitlist size would decrease from 91,822 to 85,461 (6.9% decrease), 80,073 (12.8% decrease), and 69,340 (24.4% decrease), respectively. Patient outcomes improved, with lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for a 1-year cohort of transplant recipients increasing by 10,010, 16,888, and 43,345 over the three scenarios. Discounted lifetime costs for the cohort in the new steady state were lower by $1.6 billion, $2.3 billion, and $9.0 billion for each scenario, respectively. Spillover impacts (i.e. benefits that accrued beyond the patients who directly experienced increased graft survival) accounted for 41-48% of the QALY gains and ranged from cost increases of 3.3% to decreases of 5.5%.

LIMITATIONS

The model is a simplification of reality and does not account for the full degree of patient heterogeneity occurring in the real world. Health economic outcomes are extrapolated based on the assumption that the median patient is representative of the overall population.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing graft survival reduces demand from repeat transplants candidates, allowing additional candidates to receive transplants. These spillover impacts decrease waitlist size and shorten wait times, leading to improvements in graft and patient survival as well as quality-of-life. Cost-effectiveness analyses of treatments that increase kidney graft survival should incorporate spillover benefits that accrue beyond the direct recipient of an intervention.

A cost-utility analysis of SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres versus best supportive care in the treatment of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer refractory to chemotherapy in the UK

BACKGROUND

Limited treatment options are available in chemotherapy-refractory or -intolerant metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The objective of the present analysis was to evaluate the cost-utility of SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres relative to best supportive care (BSC) in the treatment of chemotherapy refractory mCRC from the perspective of the UK national healthcare payer.

METHODS

A cost-utility model was developed in Microsoft Excel to simulate transitions from progression-free survival to post-progression survival and death in patients with mCRC. Unit costs were captured in 2019 pounds sterling (GBP) based on the literature, formulary listings, and National Health Service (NHS) England reference costs. Future costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% per annum. A series of one-way sensitivity analyses, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were conducted.

RESULTS

The base case analysis showed that SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres would result in an increase in discounted quality-adjusted life years gained from 0.69 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to 1.50 QALYs, with an associated increase in cost from GBP 15,268 to GBP 34,168 yielding an incremental cost-utility ratio of GBP 23,435 per QALY. PSA showed that there would be a 56% likelihood that SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres would be cost-effective relative to BSC at a willingness-to-pay threshold of GBP 30,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

This cost-utility analysis showed that, relative to BSC, SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres would be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with mCRC in the UK setting from the national healthcare payer perspective.

A patient-level cost-effectiveness analysis of iron isomaltoside versus ferric carboxymaltose for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in the United Kingdom

Objectives: Intravenous iron is the recommended treatment for patients with iron deficiency anemia (IDA) where oral iron is ineffective or rapid iron replenishment is required. Two high-dose, rapid-administration intravenous iron formulations are currently available in the UK: iron isomaltoside 1000/ferric derisomaltose (IIM) and ferric carboxymaltose (FCM). An indirect treatment comparison (ITC) recently showed that improvement from baseline hemoglobin was significantly larger with IIM than FCM. The objective was to use the ITC findings to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of IIM versus FCM from the UK healthcare payer perspective.Methods: A patient-level simulation model was developed in R to evaluate the cost per patient experiencing hematological response with IIM versus FCM. The model generated a simulated cohort from parametric distributions of baseline hemoglobin and bodyweight. Changes in hemoglobin were modeled based on data from the ITC, covaried with baseline hemoglobin based on patient-level data from a randomized controlled trial. Posological models of the iron formulations were developed based on the summaries of product characteristics. UK-specific costs were based on healthcare resource groups.Results: The proportion of patients experiencing hematological response was 9.0% higher with IIM relative to FCM (79.0% versus 70.0%), based on modeling of clinically realistic, correlated distributions of baseline hemoglobin and change from baseline hemoglobin. The mean number of infusions needed to administer the required dose was 1.92 with FCM, versus 1.38 with IIM, resulting in costs of £637 and £457 per treated patient with FCM and IIM respectively, corresponding to respective costs of £910 and £579 per responder.Conclusions: The analysis showed that using IIM rather than FCM in patients with IDA was dominant and would reduce the number of iron infusions required to correct iron deficiency, thereby reducing the costs associated with IDA treatment and simultaneously increasing the proportion of patients with IDA experiencing a clinically meaningful hematological response.

Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?: A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April. The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July. If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.

A cost analysis of SIR-Spheres yttrium-90 resin microspheres versus tyrosine kinase inhibitors in the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma in France, Italy, Spain and the UK

Background and aims: A wide range of treatment options are available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including systemic treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) such as sorafenib and lenvatinib, immunotherapies, locoregional therapies such as selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) and treatments with curative intent such as resection, radiofrequency ablation and liver transplantation. Given the substantial economic burden associated with HCC treatment, the aim of the present analysis was to establish the cost of using SIRT with SIR-Spheres yttrium-90 (Y-90) resin microspheres versus TKIs from healthcare payer perspectives in France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK).Methods: A cost model was developed to capture the costs of initial systemic treatment with sorafenib (95%) or lenvatinib (5%) versus SIRT in patients with HCC in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages B and C. A nested Markov model was utilized to model transitions between progression-free survival (PFS), progression and death, in addition to transitions between subsequent treatment lines. Cost and resource use data were identified from published sources in each of the four countries.Results: Relative to TKIs, SIRT with SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres were found to be cost saving in all four country settings, with the additional costs of the microspheres and the SIRT procedure being more than offset by reductions in drug and drug administration costs, and treatment of adverse events. Across the four country settings, total cost savings with SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres fell within the range 5.4-24.9% and SIRT resulted in more patients ultimately receiving treatments with curative intent (4.6 vs. 1.4% of eligible patients).Conclusion: SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres resulted in cost savings relative to TKIs in the treatment of unresectable HCC in all four country settings, while increasing the proportion of patients who become eligible for treatments with curative intent.

Assessing the potential cost-effectiveness of a gene therapy for the treatment of hemophilia A

Aim: Hemophilia A is a genetic, chronic disorder classified by deficient or defective coagulation factor VIII (FVIII) that puts those affected at risk for spontaneous bleeding episodes, which lead to joint damage and chronic pain over time. Currently, most severe hemophilia A patients are treated with prophylactic FVIII, which requires costly and frequent infusions and life-long adherence to medication. A gene therapy (valoctocogene roxaparvovec) is currently in development for the treatment of severe hemophilia A. This model assessed the potential cost-effectiveness of treating patients with valoctocogene roxaparvovec rather than prophylactic therapy.Materials and methods: We developed an individual-based, state-transition microsimulation model for assessing the likely cost-effectiveness of valoctocogene roxaparvovec compared to prophylactic FVIII. Men aged 30 with severe hemophilia A were modeled over a lifetime horizon, and costs were reported from the perspective of the United States health care system. Through microsimulation, patient-level heterogeneity was captured in starting weight, starting Pettersson score (PS), durability of valoctocogene roxaparvovec, and annual bleed rate (ABR).Results: The model projects that treatment with single-administration valoctocogene roxaparvovec would be cost-saving to people with hemophilia A at a price point comparable to other currently available gene therapy products due to its potential to reduce FVIII utilization, direct medical costs, lifetime bleeds, and accumulated joint damage.Limitations: The model relies upon evidence-based assumptions for clinical inputs due to limited data availability. Such uncertainty was mitigated by modeling heterogeneity across the population, specifically with regards to long-term gene therapy durability, lifetime bleed rates, and joint damage progression.Conclusion: Valoctocogene roxaparvovec was found to be cost-saving-on average by about $6.8 million per patient-and more effective than prophylactic therapy for treatment of hemophilia A. The comparative benefit of gene therapy was observed across a broad range of simulated patients that were representative of the real-world severe hemophilia A population.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of standalone trabecular micro-bypass stents in patients with mild-to-moderate open-angle glaucoma in Canada

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-utility of two trabecular micro-bypass stents (TBS) implantation vs standard of care (SOC) in patients with mild-to-moderate open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in the Canadian healthcare setting.

METHODS

The deterioration in visual field (VF) defect over a 15-year time horizon was tracked using a Markov model with Hodapp-Parrish-Anderson stages of glaucoma (mild, moderate, advanced, severe/blind) and death as health states. Meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials were conducted to estimate the pooled reduction in intraocular pressure (IOP) and medication use due to TBS and SOC. The rate of decline in VF loss was adjusted by the extent of IOP reduction to estimate transition probabilities. Healthcare resource utilization, unit costs (2017 CAD), and progression-related utility scores were obtained by literature review, and medication costs with wastage were obtained from IMS Brogan PharmaStat. The impact of parameter and methodological uncertainty on costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was examined using probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis showed an additional reduction of 1.13 medications/patient and an additional decrease in IOP of -1.10 mmHg at 36 months favoring TBS. TBS strongly dominated medication alone, due to higher improvement in quality-of-life (0.068 QALYs), fewer blind eyes (-0.0031), and a decrease in total healthcare costs of C$2,908.3 per patient over the time horizon (C$9,394.1 TBS vs C$12,302.4 medication alone). Sensitivity analyses showed that results were robust to the uncertainties in model inputs and assumptions. Time-to-dominance was 44 months (3.7 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The TBS procedure was cost-effective over SOC in a 15-year time horizon, with quality-of-life gains.

The potential value of rapid, cloud-enabled onsite testing for the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis in the United States

AIMS

Improvements in information technology have granted the recent development of rapid, cloud-enabled, onsite laboratory testing for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This study aims to quantify the value to payers of such technologies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

To calculate the value of rapid, cloud-enabled, onsite laboratory testing to diagnose RA relative to traditional, centralized laboratory testing, an Excel-based decision tree model was created that simulated potential cost-savings to payers who cover routine evaluations of RA patients in the US. First, a conceptual framework was created to identify the value components of rapid, cloud-enabled onsite testing. Second, value associated with patient time savings, savings on visit fees, change in treatment costs, and QALY improvements was measured, leveraging existing literature and information from an observational study. Lastly, these value components were combined to estimate the total incremental value accruing to payers per patient-year relative to centralized laboratory testing.

RESULTS

Rapid, cloud-enabled, onsite testing is estimated to save one office and 1.81 laboratory visits during the evaluation period for the average patient. Results from an observational study found that rapid, cloud-enabled testing increased the likelihood of completing diagnostic orders from 84.5% to 97%, resulting in an increased probability of early treatment (3.5 percentage points) with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs among patients eligible for treatment. The combined total value was $5,648 per evaluated patient-year. This value is primarily attributed to health benefits of early treatment ($5,048), fewer visit payments ($459), and patient time savings due to fewer office ($216) and laboratory visits ($255).

LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Data on the impact of rapid, cloud-enabled, onsite testing on patient health, care delivery, and clinical decision-making is scarce. More robust real-world data would confirm the validity of our model. Rapid, cloud-enabled, onsite testing has the potential to generate significant value to payers.

Calibration to American options: numerical investigation of the de-Americanization method

American options are the reference instruments for the model calibration of a large and important class of single stocks. For this task, a fast and accurate pricing algorithm is indispensable. The literature mainly discusses pricing methods for American options that are based on Monte Carlo, tree and partial differential equation methods. We present an alternative approach that has become popular under the name de-Americanization in the financial industry. The method is easy to implement and enjoys fast run-times (compared to a direct calibration to American options). Since it is based on ad hoc simplifications, however, theoretical results guaranteeing reliability are not available. To quantify the resulting methodological risk, we empirically test the performance of the de-Americanization method for calibration. We classify the scenarios in which de-Americanization performs very well. However, we also identify the cases where de-Americanization oversimplifies and can result in large errors.