Tradeoffs between hygiene behaviors and triclosan loads from rivers to coastal seas in the post COVID-19 era

The use of healthcare products containing triclosan has surged globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we used a global spatially explicit model to simulate triclosan export by rivers to coastal seas in the post-COVID-19 era. The global triclosan model shows that the primary watersheds of triclosan export in Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia, United States, Brazil, India, and China, with river mouths presenting higher ecological risk distributed in Europe, South Asia, and America. It is estimated that triclosan concentrations in more than 77 % of global watersheds will be below the toxicity threshold by 2030 if the per capita use of triclosan is halved. Rather than completely restricting the use of triclosan, we should focus on integrating the effectiveness data of triclosan to develop recommendations for essential usage, substitutes, and wastewater treatment plants that minimize triclosan pollution in the post-COVID-19 era.

Urban air pollution evaluation in downtown streets of a medium-sized Latin American city using AERMOD dispersion model

The transport sector is considered the largest contributor of air pollutants in urban areas, mainly on-road vehicles, affecting the environment and human health. Bahía Blanca is a medium-sized Latin American city, with high levels of traffic in the downtown area during peak hours. In this regard, it is necessary to analyze air pollution using an air quality model considering that there are no air pollutant measurements in the central area. Furthermore, this type of study has not been carried out in the region and since the city is expected to grow, it is necessary to evaluate the current situation in order to make effective future decisions. In this sense, the AERMOD model (US-EPA version) and the RLINE source type were used in this work. This study analyzes the variations of pollutant concentrations coming from mobile sources in Bahía Blanca's downtown area, particularly carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) during the period Jul-2020 to Jun-2022. It is interesting to note the results show the maximum concentration values detected are not directly associated with maximum levels of vehicle flow or emission rates, which highlights the importance of meteorological parameters in the modeling. In addition, alternative scenarios are proposed and analyzed from a sustainable approach. Regarding the scenario analysis, it can be concluded that diesel vehicles have a large influence on NOx emissions. Moreover, restrictions as strict as those proposed for a Low Emission Zone would be less applicable in the city than alternative temporary measures that modify traffic at peak hours.

Demographic shrinkage promotes ecosystem services supply capacity in the karst desertification control

Although ecological services have been improved in karst desertification control areas, it is still unclear how population shrinkage affects ecosystem service supply capability through ecological assets. In this study, Theil-Sen median, regression analysis, and variance partitioning were applied to explore the linkages of population change (observed data and shared socioeconomic pathways 1-representative concentration pathways 2.6), ecological asset composition (land use), quality (Normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and tree height), and ecosystem services in different periods (population growth and decline periods). The results showed that the population change during the growth period (2000-2038) was dominated by migration patterns. In degraded ecoregions (karst desertification) dominated by population out-migration, the net expansion of forest was 15.88 % during 2000-2020, NDVI and tree height increased by 0.57 % and 54.96 %, and ecosystem service supply capability increased by 2.68 %. In contrast, in non-degraded ecoregions (non-karst and karst non-desertification) with population in-migration, change rates of forest (-5.40 % and - 23.68 %), NDVI (0.49 % and 0.53 %), tree height (-8.35 % and - 31.25 %), and ecosystem service supply capability (2.04 % and 2.18 %) were apparently lower than degraded ecoregions. During the population decline period (2039-2100), although the migration pattern between two regions during the growth period was replaced by a population drop within a single region, the positive correlation between population shrinkage with ecological assets and service supply capability was still followed. Overall, the study found that both ways of population shrinkage that involve out-migration and decline can alleviate the land pressure of degraded ecoregions, which enhances ecosystem service supply capability by regulating ecological assets.

Pluvial flood risk assessment for 2021-2050 under climate change scenarios in the Metropolitan City of Venice

Pluvial flood is a natural hazard occurring from extreme rainfall events that affect millions of people around the world, causing damages to their properties and lives. The magnitude of projected climate risks indicates the urgency of putting in place actions to increase climate resilience. Through this study, we develop a Machine Learning (ML) model to predict pluvial flood risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for future scenarios of precipitation for the period 2021-2050, considering different triggering factors and precipitation patterns. The analysis is focused on the case study area of the Metropolitan City of Venice (MCV) and considers 212 historical pluvial flood events occurred in the timeframe 1995-2020. The methodology developed implements spatio-temporal constraints in the ML model to improve pluvial flood risk prediction under future scenarios of climate change. Accordingly, a cross-validation approach was applied to frame a model able to predict pluvial flood at any time and space. This was complemented with historical pluvial flood data and the selection of nine triggering factors representative of territorial features that contribute to pluvial flood events. Logistic Regression was the most reliable model, with the highest AUC score, providing robust result both in the validation and test set. Maximum cumulative rainfall of 14 days was the most important feature contributing to pluvial flood occurrence. The final output is represented by a suite of risk maps of the flood-prone areas in the MCV for each quarter of the year for the period 1995-2020 based on historical data, and risk maps for each quarter of the period 2021-2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 of future precipitation scenarios. Overall, the results underline a consistent increase in extreme events (i.e., very high and extremely high risk of pluvial flooding) under the more catastrophic scenario RCP8.5 for future decades compared to the baseline.

Waste LCA and the future

Life cycle assessment (LCA) models quantifying the environmental aspects of waste management have become an integral part of waste management decision-making over the last two decades and have provided ample knowledge on both environmental benefits and drawbacks in the way we handle waste. Waste management and LCA modelling of waste management systems will soon be challenged by profound changes necessary in our societies and sectors to meet sustainable development goals. Foreseen changes in energy, material, and nutrient provision will directly and indirectly affect waste management in terms of its operation and goals. This study reflects on anticipated changes in society and industrial sectors and how these changes may affect waste management and LCA modelling of waste management systems in terms of waste input, the modelling of technologies and systems and exchanges of energy, materials, and nutrients, as well as how it may affect impact assessment and the interpretation of results. The study provides practical recommendations for LCA modelling of future waste management systems, which will hopefully lead to robust assessments that can support decision-making in an evolving society subject to great changes.

Effect of Future Climate Change on Stratosphere-to-Troposphere-Exchange Driven Ozone in the Northern Hemisphere

Future estimates of atmospheric pollutant concentrations serve as critical information for policy makers to formulate current policy indicators to achieve future targets. Tropospheric burden of O3 is modulated not only by anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions, but also by the downward transport of O3 associated with stratosphere to troposphere exchange (STE). Hence changes in the estimates of STE and its contributions are key to understand the nature and intensity of future ground level O3 concentrations. The difference in simulated O3 mixing ratios with and without the O3-Potential Vorticity (PV) parameterization scheme is used to represent the model estimated influence of STE on tropospheric O3 distributions. Though STE contributions remain constant in Northern hemisphere as a whole, regional differences exist with Europe (EUR) registering increased STE contribution in both spring and winter while Eastern China (ECH) reporting increased contribution in spring in 2050 (RCP8.5) as compared to 2015. Importance of climate change can be deduced from the fact that ECH and EUR recorded increased STE contribution to O3 in RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Comparison of STE and non-STE meteorological process contributions to O3 due to climate change revealed that contributions of non-STE processes were highest in summer while STE contributions were highest in winter. EUR reported highest STE contribution while ECH reported highest non-STE contribution. None of the 3 regions show consistent low STE contribution due to future climate change (< 50%) in all seasons indicating the significance of STE to ground level O3.

Pluvial flood adaptation using nature-based solutions: An integrated biophysical-economic assessment

Globally, flood events are considered the costliest natural hazard. Changes in precipitation patterns and large areas of impervious surfaces in urban environments are increasing the sensitivity of these systems to runoff production. At the same time, projected global sea-level rise may further increase the frequency of compound flooding due to simultaneous storm surge, sea-level rise and pluvial runoff that cause vast socio-economic and ecological impacts to coastal cities. In this context, over the last decade, the role of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) has been recognised to support climate change adaptation by addressing ideas of multi-functionality, non-linearity and heterogeneity in urban design. Thus, increasing awareness about NBS benefits increases the willingness to accept these solutions. However, empirical evidence of NBS effectiveness at the urban catchment scale is still subject to debate. This study develops a spatial biophysical-economic framework that allows for the integrated assessment of NBS flood risk mitigation impacts, costs and benefits in the face of climate change, combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, benefit transfer methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Specifically, the InVEST Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model was used to assess the biophysical impacts of NBS on urban pluvial flood risk, benefit-transfer methods were used to evaluate the economic implications of such solutions, and GIS was used to integrate and map biophysical impacts and economic implications. For the case of the coastal lagoon city of Aveiro (Portugal), NBS scenarios of green roofs and bioswales under current and future climate conditions were assessed. The main findings of this study show that green roofs scenarios would save 32 % of the flood damages to buildings and infrastructures every year, while bioswales help save only 0.1 %. Moreover, green roofs implementation provides larger benefits in the future climate scenario (representative concentration pathway - RCP - 4.5). The findings confirm the extent to which knowledge on NBS benefits and costs is partial and uncertain, thus requiring constant progress through biophysical-economic assessment to support an evolutive decision making process in climate adaptation planning.

Current and future water balance of a mountain subcatchment of Issyk-Kul Lake, Tien Shan range, Kyrgyzstan

Snow and ice dominated basins are particularly vulnerable to climate change but estimating their hydrological balance remains challenging in data-scarce regions like the Tien Shan mountains. With the overall aim of modeling of the large Issyk-Kul Lake basin in Kyrgyzstan, this article focuses on the hydrological balance of the Chon Kyzyl-Suu basin, a representative sub-catchment of the lake basin. The study involved two steps: first, calibration/validation of a distributed hydrological snow model, second, assessment of future trends in runoff, evaporation, snow melt and glacier melt under different climate scenarios. Our results show that the balance of the basin is already upset due to glacier mass loss and that groundwater processes play a significant role in generating discharge. Climate projections for the next 40 years (2020-2060) show no significant trend in precipitation under scenario ssp2-4.5 but an 8.9 % decrease in precipitation under scenario ssp5-8.5. at the same time, air temperature will increase by 0.4 °C under scenario ssp2-4.5, and by 1.8 °C under scenario ssp5-8.5. Under the "business as usual" scenario (ssp2-4.5), the annual river flow of the headwater basins should increase by 13 %, or under the "pessimistic" ssp5-8.5 scenario, by 28 %, mainly due to the increase in glacier runoff. These results make it possible to envisage realistic modeling at the scale of the lake at a daily time step.

Leaving a plastic legacy: Current and future scenarios for mismanaged plastic waste in rivers

Mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) entering the riverine environment is concerning, given that most plastic pollution never reaches the oceans, and it has a severe negative impact on terrestrial ecosystems. However, significant knowledge gaps on the storage and remobilization of MPW within different rivers over varying timescales remain. Here we analyze the exposure of river systems to MPW to better understand the sedimentary processes that control the legacy of plastic waste. Using a conservative approach, we estimate 0.8 million tonnes of MPW enter rivers annually in 2015, affecting an estimated 84 % of rivers by surface area, globally. By 2060, the amount of MPW input to rivers is expected to increase nearly 3-fold, however improved plastic waste strategies through better governance can decrease plastic pollution by up to 72 %. Currently, most plastic input occurs along anthropogenically modified rivers (49 %) yet these represent only 23 % of rivers by surface area. Another 17 % of MPW occur in free-flowing actively migrating meandering rivers that likely retain most plastic waste within sedimentary deposits, increasing retention times and likelihood of biochemical weathering. Active braided rivers receive less MPW (14 %), but higher water discharge will also increase fragmentation to form microplastics. Only 20 % of plastic pollution is found in non-migrating and free-flowing rivers; these have the highest probability of plastics remaining within the water column and being transferred downstream. This study demonstrates the spatial variability in MPW affecting different global river systems with different retention, fragmentation, and biochemical weathering rates of plastics. Targeted mitigation strategies and environmental risk assessments are needed at both international and national levels that consider river system dynamics.

Co-production of future scenarios of policy action plans in a science-policy-industry interface - The case of microfibre pollution from waste water treatment plants in Norway

One of the ambitions of the UN Decade of Ocean Science is stakeholder interaction to co-produce new ideas and solutions for policy action plans to ensure that environmental challenges are mitigated in a timely manner. Regulations around the release of microfibres are largely lacking, and we are at an excellent point of departure to test integrative methods of such co-production. We co-designed conceptual maps and Bayesian Belief Networks with probabilistic future scenarios within both inter- and intra-sectoral workshops with industry and scientific stakeholders to gain comparable results of policy action scenarios for curbing the challenge of microfibre pollution within this context. We found that when scientists worked on this alone, their focus was different than when working together with industry directly. Scientists focused on methods for avoiding release into the environment from a technical vantage point, whereas industry emphasized regulatory requirements needed to avoid ambiguity within the sector.

A Value Sensitive Scenario Planning Method for Adaptation to Uncertain Future Sea Level Rise

Value sensitive design (VSD) aims at creating better technology based on social and ethical values. However, VSD has not been applied to long-term and uncertain future developments, such as societal planning for climate change. This paper describes a new method that combines elements from VSD with scenario planning. The method was developed for and applied to a case study of adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in southern Sweden in a series of workshops. The participants of the workshops found that the method provided a framework for discussing long-term planning, enabled identification of essential values, challenged established planning practices, helped find creative solutions, and served as a reminder that we do not know what will happen in the future. Finally, we reflect on the limitations of the method and suggest further research on how it can be improved for value sensitive design of adaptation measures to manage uncertain future sea level rise.

Assessment of COVID-19 pandemic effects on ship pollutant emissions in major international seaports

This study aims to investigate the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic effects and associated restrictive rules on ship activities and pollutant emissions (CO2, SOX, NOX, PM, CO, CH4) in four major seaports, namely the Ports of Singapore, Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Hamburg. We used 2019 as the baseline year to show the business-as-usual emission and compared with the estimated quantity during the July 2020-July 2021 pandemic period. We also project future ship emissions from August 2021-August 2022 to illustrate two potential port congestion scenarios due to COVID-19. The results show that the ship emissions in all four ports generally increased by an average of 79% because of the prolonged turnaround time in port. Importantly, majority of ship emissions occurred during the extended hoteling time at berth and anchorage areas as longer operational times were needed due to pandemic-related delays, with increases ranging from 27 to 123% in the total emissions across ports. The most affected shipping segments were the container ships and dry bulk carriers which the total emissions of all pollutants increased by an average of 94-142% compared with 2019. Overall, the results of this study provide a comprehensive review of the ship emission outlook amid the pandemic uncertainty.

The long-term legacy of plastic mass production

Mismanaged plastic waste is transported via rivers or city drains into the ocean where it accumulates in coastal sediments, ocean gyres and the deep ocean. Plastic harms marine biota and may ultimately return to humans via the food chain. Private initiatives proposing to collect plastic from the sea and rivers have gained widespread attention, especially in the media. However, few of these methods are proven concepts and it remains unclear how effective they are. Here we estimate the amount of plastic in the global surface ocean to assess the long-term legacy of plastic mass production, calculate the time required to clean up the oceans with river barriers and clean up devices, and explore the fate of collected plastic waste. We find that the projected impact of both single and multiple clean up devices is very modest. A significant reduction of plastic debris in the ocean can be only achieved with collection at rivers or with a combination of river barriers and clean up devices. We also show that the incineration and production of plastic has a significant long-term effect on the global atmospheric carbon budget. We conclude that a combination of reduced plastic emissions and reinforced collection is the only way to rid the ocean of plastic waste.

Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science

A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5-10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be "simple" (amenable to solutions from science alone), "complicated" (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), "complex" (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or "chaotic" (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.

Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain

Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies.

Phosphorus flow analysis in the maize based food-feed-energy systems in China

Phosphorus (P) is an essential and limiting nutrient for agricultural systems, where the demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and bio-fuel are the major drivers of the intensification of agricultural production systems. Globally, maize is one of three main cereal crops, a main feedstock for animal production and a substrate for the production of bio-ethanol. This study investigated P flows through the multiple utilization systems of maize (as represented by the subsystems of food, feed and energy production) at a crop level of 2016 as reference year and made future predictions of P flows for the year 2030 based on different scenarios for food-feed-energy systems in China. For 2016, the subsystem of animal production resulted in the highest waste of P due to inappropriate manure management, but the subsystem of value-added products (Bio-fuel production, distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), maize-oil) showed the lowest P use efficiency (39%). From the value-added subsystem, 17% of P from the process flow to the subsystem of animal production as DDGS, and 61% of P is wasted associated with wastewater and sludge. Future scenarios of structural adjustments in the maize consumption system predict that the supply of maize for animal feed will be threatened if the policy of the Biofuel National Promotion before 2020 is fully implemented in China, as current maize production will not meet the future demand of food, feed and energy simultaneously. The results emphasized the use of P waste resources and better sludge management from a systems perspective. This also implied the importance of exploring coordinated development and integrated strategies for sustainable P flow management in multiple utilization systems.

Charting out the future agricultural trade and its impact on water resources

International agricultural trade triggers inter-dependency among distant countries, not only in economic terms but also under an environmental perspective. Agricultural trade has been shown to drive environmental threats pertaining to biodiversity loss and depletion and pollution of freshwater resources. Meanwhile, trade can also encourage production where it is most efficient, hence minimizing the use of natural resources required by agriculture. In this study, we provide a country-level assessment of the future international trade for 6 primary crops and 3 animal products composing 70% of the human diet caloric content. We set up four variegate socio-economic scenarios with different level of economic developments, diets habits, population growth dynamics, and levels of market liberalization. Results show that the demand of agricultural goods and the correspondent trade flow will increase with respect to current levels by 10-50% and 74-178% by 2050, respectively. The largest increase in the amount of traded goods is expected under the Economic Optimism scenario that will see an average trade flow of 2830 kcal/cap/day (i.e., nearly doubling the current per-capita flow). Most of the increase will be driven by the trade of crops for animal feeding, particularly maize will be the most traded crop. The trade networks architecture in 2050 and 2080 will be very different from the one we actually know, with a clear shift of the trade pole from the Western toward the Eastern economies. The dramatic changes of global food-sources and trade patterns will jeopardize the water resources of new regions while exacerbating the pressure in those areas that will continue serving food also in the future. In spite of this, trade may annually save around 40-60 m³ of water per person, compared to a situation where countries are self-sufficient.

Land use dynamics and future scenarios of the Rio Doce State Park buffer zone, Minas Gerais, Brazil

It is necessary to understand the importance of landscapes that comprise the environment across a broad range of time and space and that each part of these landscapes responds to changes in environmental factors and land use. This study employs a multiscale modeling approach in the Rio Doce State Park (PERD), located in Minas Gerais, Brazil, based on a previous study on land use change in this region over the last 30 years (1985-2015), with an aim of predicting possible scenarios for the next 15 years (2015-2030). The results indicate that the municipalities and buffer zones within the PERD will suffer from increased human disturbance in all four land use types present in the region (Urban, Agriculture, Pasture, and Forestry). Correspondingly, areas of natural environment (Forest and Water) will shrink due to an increase in forest fragmentation, causing the loss of permanent ecological reserves, thereby endangering the biodiversity of these areas. Cooperation between the local community and private companies is therefore necessary to improve regional environmental conservation, encourage advanced sustainable development, and improve the quality of life for residents within each municipality near the State Park.

Possibilities for the future of global mental health: a scenario planning approach

BACKGROUND

Global mental health is a widely used term describing initiatives in policies, research and practice to improve the mental health of people worldwide. It has been gaining momentum over the last 10 years, reflected in increasing funding opportunities, training programmes, and publications. In light of the rising importance of global mental health and the various uncertainties about its future directions, this paper explores what the future may hold for global mental health in 30 years' time.

METHOD

A scenario planning method was used, involving a workshop with experts from four continents and a range of backgrounds, including clinical and academic psychiatry, psychology, art and music therapy, service user advisory role, funder of global health research and post-graduate students.

RESULTS

Six distinct scenarios that describe potential future situations were developed: universal standards for care; worldwide coordination of research; making use of diversity; focus on social factors; globalised care through technology; mental health as a currency in global politics.

CONCLUSIONS

These scenarios consider different social, economic, scientific and technological drivers and focus on distinct aspects. Some reflect a global application of possible trends in mental health, whilst others apply general global developments to mental health care. They are not fixed forecasts, but instead may help to promote discussion and debate about further developments and decisions.

Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Mepraia spinolai and Mepraia gajardoi

Background

Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios.

Methods

We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations.

Results

The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi.

Conclusions

The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.

Modelling global river export of microplastics to the marine environment: Sources and future trends

Microplastics, transported by rivers to oceans, are triggering environmental concern. This study aims to better understand river export of microplastics from land to sea. We developed the Global Riverine Export of Microplastics into Seas (GREMiS) model, a global, spatially explicit model for analysing the annual microplastics export to coastal seas. Our results indicate that riverine microplastics export varies among world regions, with several hotspots, e.g., South East Asia, and, depending on the 2050 scenario, may be doubled ('Business as usual') or halved due to improved waste management ('Environment profits'). Globally, our model simulations indicated fragmentation of macroplastics as the main source of microplastics, but this result heavily depends on the assumed fragmentation rate. Sewerage discharges contributed only 20%, ranging from 1% (Africa) to 60% (OECD countries) and decreasing by 2050 as a result of improved sanitation. We conclude that, combating microplastics in the aquatic environment requires more region-specific analyses.

National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt

This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986-2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions.

Constructing future scenarios as a tool to foster responsible research and innovation among future synthetic biologists

The emerging field of synthetic biology, the (re-)designing and construction of biological parts, devices and systems for useful purposes, may simultaneously resolve some issues and raise others. In order to develop applications robustly and in the public interest, it is important to organize reflexive strategies of assessment and engagement in early stages of development. Against this backdrop, initiatives related to the concept of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) have also appeared. This paper describes such an initiative: the construction of future scenarios to explore the plausibility and desirability of potential synthetic biology innovations. We guided teams of synthetic biology students who participated in the large international Genetically Engineered Machines (iGEM) competition, in constructing scenarios aimed at exploring the plausibility and desirability of potential synthetic biology innovations. In this paper we aim to examine to what extent, and how, constructing such future scenarios contributes to RRI. In order to do so, we conducted observations and interviews to understand what kind of learning and reflection was promoted by constructing the scenarios in terms of four dimensions, which are discussed prominently in the literature on RRI: anticipation, inclusion, reflexivity and responsiveness. While we focus on how constructing future scenarios can contribute to strengthening RRI at a project (and individual) level, we also consider how far our experiment may foster RRI in the iGEM competition in general, and perhaps even inspire constructive collaboration between 'social scientists' and 'natural scientists' in the context of larger scientific research programmes.

River export of triclosan from land to sea: A global modelling approach

Triclosan (TCS) is an antibacterial agent that is added to commonly used personal care products. Emitted to the aquatic environment in large quantities, it poses a potential threat to aquatic organisms. Triclosan enters the aquatic environment mainly through sewage effluent. We developed a global, spatially explicit model, the Global TCS model, to simulate triclosan transport by rivers to coastal areas. With this model we analysed annual, basin-wide triclosan export for the year 2000 and two future scenarios for the year 2050. Our analyses for 2000 indicate that triclosan export to coastal areas in Western Europe, Southeast Asia and the East Coast of the USA is higher than in the rest of the world. For future scenarios, the Global TCS model predicts an increase in river export of triclosan in Southeast Asia and a small decrease in Europe. The number of rivers with an annual average triclosan concentration at the river mouth that exceeds a PNEC of 26.2ng/L is projected to double between 2000 and 2050. This increase is most prominent in Southeast Asia, as a result of fast population growth, increasing urbanisation and increasing numbers of people connected to sewerage systems with poor wastewater treatment. Predicted triclosan loads correspond reasonably well with measured values. However, basin-specific predictions have considerable uncertainty due to lacking knowledge and location-specific data on the processes determining the fate of triclosan in river water, e.g. sorption, degradation and sedimentation. Additional research on the fate of triclosan in river systems is therefore recommended.

CAPSULE

We developed a global spatially explicit model to simulate triclosan export by rivers to coastal seas. For two future scenarios this Global TCS model projects an increase in river export of triclosan to several seas around the world.

Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future

Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility.

Estimation of environmental flow incorporating water quality and hypothetical climate change scenarios

Environmental flows (Eflow, hereafter) are the flows to be maintained in the river for its healthy functioning and the sustenance and protection of aquatic ecosystems. Estimation of Eflow in any river stretch demands consideration of various factors such as flow regime, ecosystem, and health of river. However, most of the Eflow estimation studies have neglected the water quality factor. This study urges the need to consider water quality criterion in the estimation of Eflow and proposes a framework for estimating Eflow incorporating water quality variations under present and hypothetical future scenarios of climate change and pollution load. The proposed framework is applied on the polluted stretch of Yamuna River passing through Delhi, India. Required Eflow at various locations along the stretch are determined by considering possible variations in future water quantity and quality. Eflow values satisfying minimum quality requirements for different river water usage classes (classes A, B, C, and D as specified by the Central Pollution Control Board, India) are found to be between 700 and 800 m³/s. The estimated Eflow values may aid policymakers to derive upstream storage-release policies or effluent restrictions. Generalized nature of this framework will help its implementation on any river systems.

Landscape changes, traditional ecological knowledge and future scenarios in the Alps: A holistic ecological approach

In recent decades, a dramatic landscape change has occurred in the European alpine region: open areas have been naturally recolonized by forests as traditional agricultural and forest activities were reduced and reorganized. Land use changes (LUC) are generally measured through GIS and photo interpretation techniques, but despite many studies focused on this phenomenon and its effects on biodiversity and on the environment in general, there is a lack of information about the transformation of the human-environment connection. The study of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), such as the ability to recognize wild plants used as medicine or food, can suggest how this connection evolved through time and generations. This work investigates the relationship between the natural forest cover expansion that influences the loss of open areas and the loss of TEK. Different data sources and approaches were used to address the topic in all its complexity: a mix of questionnaire investigations, historical maps, GIS techniques and modelling were used to analyse past land use changes and predict future scenarios. The study area, Trentino, Italy, is paradigmatic of the alpine situation, and the land use change in the region is well documented by different studies, which were reviewed and compared in this paper. Our findings suggest that open area loss can be used as a good proxy to highlight the present state and to produce future scenarios of Traditional Ecological Knowledge. This could increase awareness of the loss of TEK in other Alpine regions, where data on TEK are lacking, but where environmental trends are comparable.

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat.

Modelling of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in the Red River basin (Vietnam)

Many studies have been published on the use of models to assess water quality through faecal contamination levels. However, the vast majority of this work has been conducted in developed countries and similar studies from developing countries in tropical regions are lacking. Here, we used the Seneque/Riverstrahler model to investigate the dynamics and seasonal distribution of total coliforms (TC), an indicator of faecal contamination, in the Red River (Northern Vietnam) and its upstream tributaries. The results of the model showed that, in general, the overall correlations between the simulated and observed values of TC follow a 1:1 relationship at all examined stations. They also showed that TC numbers were affected by both land use in terms of human and livestock populations and by hydrology (river discharge). We also developed a possible scenario based on the predicted changes in future demographics and land use in the Red River system for the 2050 horizon. Interestingly, the results showed only a limited increase of TC numbers compared with the present situation at all stations, especially in the upstream Vu Quang station and in the urban Ha Noi station. This is probably due to the dominance of diffuse sources of contamination relative to point sources. The model is to our knowledge one of the first mechanistic models able to simulate spatial and seasonal variations of microbial contamination (TC numbers) in the whole drainage network of a large regional river basin covering both urban and rural areas of a developing country.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Water management in Egypt for facing the future challenges

The current water shortage in Egypt is 13.5 Billion cubic meter per year (BCM/yr) and is expected to continuously increase. Currently, this water shortage is compensated by drainage reuse which consequently deteriorates the water quality. Therefore, this research was commenced with the objective of assessing different scenarios for 2025 using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and by implementing different water sufficiency measures. Field data were assembled and analyzed, and different planning alternatives were proposed and tested in order to design three future scenarios. The findings indicated that water shortage in 2025 would be 26 BCM/yr in case of continuation of current policies. Planning alternatives were proposed to the irrigation canals, land irrigation timing, aquatic weeds in waterways and sugarcane areas in old agricultural lands. Other measures were suggested to pumping rates of deep groundwater, sprinkler and drip irrigation systems in new agricultural lands. Further measures were also suggested to automatic daily surveying for distribution leak and managing the pressure effectively in the domestic and industrial water distribution systems. Finally, extra measures for water supply were proposed including raising the permitted withdrawal limit from deep groundwater and the Nubian aquifer and developing the desalination resource. The proposed planning alternatives would completely eliminate the water shortage in 2025.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector.

Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation

Densely populated deltas are so vulnerable to sea level rise and climate change that they cannot wait for global mitigation to become effective. The Netherlands therefore puts huge efforts in adaptation research and planning for the future, for example through the national research programme Knowledge for Climate and the Delta Programme for the Twenty-first century. Flood risk is one of the key issues addressed in both programmes. Adaptive management planning should rely on a sound ex-ante policy analysis which encompasses a future outlook, establishing whether a policy transition is required, an assessment of alternative flood risk management strategies, and their planning in anticipation without running the risk of regret of doing too little too late or too much too early. This endeavour, addressed as adaptive delta management, calls for new approaches, especially because of uncertainties about long-term future developments. For flood risk management, it also entails reconsideration of the underlying principles and of the application of portfolios of technical measures versus spatial planning and other policy instruments. To this end, we first developed a conceptualisation of flood risk which reconciles the different approaches of flood defence management practice and spatial planning practice in order to bridge the gap between these previously detached fields. Secondly, we looked abroad in order to be better able to reflect critically on a possible Dutch bias which could have resulted from many centuries of experience of successful adaptation to increasing flood risk, but which may no longer be sustainable into the future. In this paper, we explain the multiple conceptualisation of flood risk and argue that explicitly distinguishing exposure determinants as a new concept may help to bridge the gap between engineers and spatial planners, wherefore we show how their different conceptualisations influence the framing of the adaptation challenge. Also, we identify what the Netherlands may learn from neighbouring countries with a different framing of the future flood risk challenge.

Cost-effectiveness and affordability of community mobilisation through women's groups and quality improvement in health facilities (MaiKhanda trial) in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Understanding the cost-effectiveness and affordability of interventions to reduce maternal and newborn deaths is critical to persuading policymakers and donors to implement at scale. The effectiveness of community mobilisation through women's groups and health facility quality improvement, both aiming to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality, was assessed by a cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in rural Malawi in 2008-2010. In this paper, we calculate intervention cost-effectiveness and model the affordability of the interventions at scale.

METHODS

Bayesian methods are used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the community and facility interventions on their own (CI, FI), and together (FICI), compared to current practice in rural Malawi. Effects are estimated with Monte Carlo simulation using the combined full probability distributions of intervention effects on stillbirths, neonatal deaths and maternal deaths. Cost data was collected prospectively from a provider perspective using an ingredients approach and disaggregated at the intervention (not cluster or individual) level. Expected Incremental Benefit, Cost-effectiveness Acceptability Curves and Expected Value of Information (EVI) were calculated using a threshold of $780 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, the per capita gross domestic product of Malawi in 2013 international $.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness of CI, FI, and combined FICI was $79, $281, and $146 per DALY averted respectively, compared to current practice. FI is dominated by CI and FICI. Taking into account uncertainty, both CI and combined FICI are highly likely to be cost effective (probability 98% and 93%, EVI $210,423 and $598,177 respectively). Combined FICI is incrementally cost effective compared to either intervention individually (probability 60%, ICER $292, EIB $9,334,580 compared to CI). Future scenarios also found FICI to be the optimal decision. Scaling-up to the whole of Malawi, CI is of greatest value for money, potentially averting 13.0% of remaining annual DALYs from stillbirths, neonatal and maternal deaths for the equivalent of 6.8% of current annual expenditure on maternal and neonatal health in Malawi.

CONCLUSIONS

Community mobilisation through women's groups is a highly cost-effective and affordable strategy to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in Malawi. Combining community mobilisation with health facility quality improvement is more effective, more costly, but also highly cost-effective and potentially affordable in this context.

Future waste treatment and energy systems--examples of joint scenarios

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.