Projected impact of population aging on non-communicable disease burden and costs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2020-2030

BACKGROUND

The number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20-64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget.

METHODS

Ten priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored.

RESULTS

The prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Managing the growing NCD burden in KSA's aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Magnitude of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and associated factors among women aged 15-49 years old in two Sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

The consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages (SSBs) has been linked to the global epidemic of obesity and chronic disease. Following the economic growth, urbanization, and attractive market for beverage companies, the consumption of SSBs is a rising public health challenge in low and middle-income countries. Hence, this study aimed to assess the magnitude of SSBs consumption and associated factors among women of reproductive age group in two SSA countries.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used data from Integrated Public Use Micro Data Series-Performance Monitoring for Action (IPUMS-PMA) with a total sample of 3759 women aged 15-49 years old in Burkina Faso and Kenya. The data was collected on June - August 2018 in Burkina Faso, and May -August 2018 in Kenya. SSBs consumption was measured by asking a woman if she drank SSBs yesterday during the day or night, whether at home or anywhere else. A mixed-effect logistic regression model was employed to identify associated factors.

RESULT

Half (50.38%) [95%CI; 46.04, 54.71] of women consumed SSBs. Sociodemographic characteristics like primary education (AOR = 1.35; 95%CI: 1.05-1.74), secondary education (AOR = 1.46; 95%CI: 1.13-1.90), being employed (AOR = 1.28; 95%CI: 1.05-1.56),and dietary characteristics like consumption of savory and fried snack (AOR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.24-2.09), achieved minimum dietary diversity (AOR = 1.67; 95%CI: 1.38-2.01), moderate household food insecurity (AOR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.95), and sever household food insecurity (AOR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.89) had significant statistical association with SSBs consumption.

CONCLUSION

Consumption of SSBs among women in two Sub-Saharan African countries (Burkina Faso and Kenya) is high. Having higher educational status, being employed, achieved minimum dietary diversity, and having low/no household food in-security were found to be significantly associated with SSBs compared with their counterparts. We recommend for further study in other African countries using objective measurements of SSBs consumption.

Non-communicable Disease-Related Sustainable Development Goals for 66 Belt and Road Initiative Countries

BACKGROUND

Since 2015, the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has measured progress in achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) annually worldwide. Little is known about the status and attainment of indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 65 countries from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China in 2013.

METHODS

Data from GBDs were used to estimate 24 NCD-related SDG indicators in BRI countries from 1990 to 2017. Each indicator was scored from 0 to 100 to compare multiple indicators over the study period. The natural log of the annual change in each location and year and weighted annual rates of change were used to generate projections for 2030. National-level estimates were determined by socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles in BRI countries with more than 1 million inhabitants.

RESULTS

In 2017, the median overall score of NCD-related SDG index for the 66 BRI countries was 60 points, ranging from 29 points in Afghanistan to 84 points in Israel. More than 80% of countries achieved the SDG 2030 maternal mortality (MM) rate target in 2017, and the national skilled birth attendance rate was above 99% in more than 59% countries. However, none of the BRI countries achieved the goal for children's overweight, modern methods of contraception, and universal health coverage. It was predicted that 80.4% of NCD-related SDG targets would be achieved in these countries by 2030. The overall score of NCD-related SDG index were positively associated with SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSION

For many indicators, the achieved progress in many countries is less than the annual rate necessary to meet SDG targets, indicating that substantial efforts need to be made in the coming years. Progress should be accelerated through collaborations between countries, implementation of NCD prevention and control strategies, and monitoring of inequalities in NCD-related SDGs within populations.

Protocol Design for Surveillance of Risk Factors of Non-communicable Diseases During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Experience from Iran STEPS Survey 2021

BACKGROUND

Regarding the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and exposure to their risk factors, and the continuous need for nationwide data, we aimed to develop the latest round of the STEPwise Approach to NCD Risk Factor Surveillance (STEPS) survey in 2021 in Iran, while the COVID-19 pandemic was still present.

METHODS

In addition to the three main steps of this survey, including questionnaires, physical measurements, and laboratory assessments, we adapted the survey with the situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, by adding to various aspects of study phases and changing some scientific and executive procedures in this round of STEPS survey in Iran. These changes were beyond the initial novelties embedded within the survey before the pandemic, by refining the study protocol benefiting from the previous experiences of the STEPS survey.

RESULTS

By amending the required changes, we could include a total of 27874 individuals in the first step of the survey. This number was 27745 and 18119 for the second and third steps. Comparing the preliminary results with the previous nationwide surveys, this study was highly representative on both national and provincial levels. Also, implementing the COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all stages of survey led to the least infection transmission between the study investigators and participants.

CONCLUSION

The novel initiatives and developed strategies in this round of Iran STEPS survey provide a state-of-the-art protocol for national surveys in the presence of an overwhelming catastrophe like the COVID-19 pandemic and the triggered limitations and shortages of resources.

What Generates Attention to Health in Trade Policy-Making? Lessons From Success in Tobacco Control and Access to Medicines: A Qualitative Study of Australia and the (Comprehensive and Progressive) Trans-Pacific Partnership

BACKGROUND

Despite greater attention to the nexus between trade and investment agreements and their potential impacts on public health, less is known regarding the political and governance conditions that enable or constrain attention to health issues on government trade agendas. Drawing on interviews with key stakeholders in the Australian trade domain, this article provides novel insights from policy actors into the range of factors that can enable or constrain attention to health in trade negotiations.

METHODS

A qualitative case study was chosen focused on Australia's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and the domestic agenda-setting processes that shaped the government's negotiating mandate. Process tracing via document analysis of media reporting, parliamentary records and government inquiries identified key events during Australia's participation in the TPP negotiations. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 25 key government and non-government policy actors including Federal politicians, public servants, representatives from public interest nongovernment organisations and industry associations, and academic experts.

RESULTS

Interviews revealed that domestic concerns for protecting regulatory space for access to generic medicines and tobacco control emerged onto the Australian government's trade agenda. This contrasted with other health issues like alcohol control and nutrition and food systems that did not appear to receive attention. The analysis suggests sixteen key factors that shaped attention to these different health issues, including the strength of exporter interests; extent of political will of Trade and Health Ministers; framing of health issues; support within the major political parties; exogenous influencing events; public support; the strength of available evidence and the presence of existing domestic legislation and international treaties, among others.

CONCLUSION

These findings aid understanding of the factors that can enable or constrain attention to health issues on government trade agendas, and offer insights for potential pathways to elevate greater attention to health in future. They provide a suite of conditions that appear to shape attention to health outside the biomedical health domain for further research in the commercial determinants of health.

Reiterating the Importance of Publicly Funded and Provided Primary Healthcare for Non-communicable Diseases: The Case of India Comment on "Universal Health Coverage for Non-communicable Diseases and Health Equity: Lessons From Australian Primary Healthcare"

India has established health and wellness centres (HWCs) and appointed mid-level healthcare providers (community health officers, CHOs) to provide free and comprehensive primary healthcare (PHC), through screening, prevention, control, management and treatment for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), in addition to existing services for communicable diseases, and reproductive and child health. The range of services being provided and the number of people accessing ambulatory care in these government centres have increased, leading to more equitable healthcare access and financial protection. In policy debates, contestations exist prioritising between PHC or hospital services, and between publicly-provided healthcare or privatised and "purchased" services. Nationally and globally the influence of industries and corporations in health governance has weakened the response against NCDs. PHC initiatives for NCDs must be publicly funded and provided, located within communities, and necessitate action on the determinants of health. The experiences from Australia (a high-income country) and India (a low-and middle-income country) amply illustrate this.

Cost-Effectiveness of Population Level and Individual Level Interventions to Combat Non-communicable Disease in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: A WHO-CHOICE Analysis

Background: To determine the health system costs and health-related benefits of interventions for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including mental health disorders, for the purpose of identifying the most cost-effective intervention options in support of global normative guidance on the best-buy interventions for NCDs. In addition, tools are developed to allow country contextualisation of the analyses to support local priority setting exercises.

Methods: This analysis follows the standard WHO-CHOICE (World Health Organization-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective) approach to generalized cost-effectiveness analysis applied to two regions, Eastern sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. The scope of the analysis is all NCD and mental health interventions included in WHO guidelines or guidance documents for which the health impact of the intervention is able to be identified and attributed. Costs are measured in 2010 international dollars, and benefits modelled beginning in 2010, both for a period of 100 years.

Results: There are many interventions for NCD prevention and management that are highly cost-effective, generating one year of healthy life for less than Int. $100. These interventions include tobacco and alcohol control policies such as taxation, voluntary and legislative actions to reduce sodium intake, mass media campaigns for reducing physical activity, and treatment options for cardiovascular disease (CVD), cervical cancer and epilepsy. In addition a number of interventions fall just outside this range, including breast cancer, depression and chronic lung disease treatment.

Conclusion: Interventions that represent good value for money, are technically feasible and are delivered for a low per-capita cost, are available to address the rapid rise in NCDs in low- and middle-income countries. This paper also describes a tool to support countries in developing NCD action plans.

Universal Health Coverage for Non-communicable Diseases and Health Equity: Lessons From Australian Primary Healthcare

Background: Universal health coverage (UHC) is central to current international debate on health policy. The primary healthcare (PHC) system is crucial to achieving UHC, in order to address the rising incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more effectively and equitably. In this paper, we examine the Australian case as a mature system of UHC and identify lessons for UHC policy to support equity of access to PHC and reduce NCDs.

Methods: Our qualitative research used policy mapping and monitoring and 30 key informant interviews, and applied policy theory, to investigate the implementation of Australian PHC policy between 2008 and 2018.

Results: Although the Australian PHC system does support equity of access to primary medical care, other ideational, actor-centred and structural features of policy detract from the capacities of the system to prevent and manage NCDs effectively, deliver equity of access according to need, and support equity in health outcomes. These features include a dominant focus on episodic primary medical care, which is a poor model of care for NCDs, and an inequitable distribution of these services. Also, a mixed system of public and private insurance coverage in PHC contributes to inequities in access and health outcomes, driving additional NCD demand into the health system.

Conclusion: Countries aiming to achieve UHC to support health equity and reduce NCDs can learn from strengths and weaknesses in the Australian system. We recommend a range of ideational, actor-centred and structural features of UHC systems in PHC that will support effective action on NCDs, equity of access to care according to need, and equity in health outcomes across geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

Tackling NCDs: The Need to Address Alcohol Industry Interference and Policy Incoherence Across Sectors Comment on "Towards Preventing and Managing Conflict of Interest in Nutrition Policy? An Analysis of Submissions to a Consultation on a Draft WHO Tool"

Ralston et al highlight the ways that different actors in global nutrition governance conceptualise and frame the role of non-state actors in governance arrangements, including the potential for conflict of interest (COI) to undermine global health efforts. The authors argue that the World Health Organization (WHO) draft tool on managing COI in nutrition policy is an important innovation in global health, but that further research and refinement is needed for operationalising the management of COI with diverse actors in diverse contexts. In this commentary, reflecting on strategic framing and industry interference in policy-making, we argue for the urgent need for states and intergovernmental organisations to prevent alcohol industry interference in the development of national and global alcohol policy. We argue that policy incoherence remains a key barrier, where governments pursue health goals in the health sector while pursuing exports and market liberalisation of health harmful commodities in the trade sector.

Next Steps for Elevating Health on Trade and Investment Policy Agendas Comment on "How Neoliberalism Is Shaping the Supply of Unhealthy Commodities and What This Means for NCD Prevention"

Despite intergovernmental calls for greater policy coherence to tackle rising non-communicable diseases (NCDs), there has been a striking lack of coherence internationally and nationally between trade and health sectors. In this commentary, I explore the arguments by Lenucha and Thow in relation to barriers for greater coherence for NCDs, apply them to regional trade agreements, and point to next steps in research and advocacy for greater attention to health and NCD prevention in government trade agendas.

Missed opportunities for NCD multimorbidity prevention in adolescents and youth living with HIV in urban South Africa

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological transition in high HIV-burden settings is resulting in a rise in HIV/NCD multimorbidity. The majority of NCD risk behaviours start during adolescence, making this an important target group for NCD prevention and multimorbidity prevention in adolescents with a chronic condition such as HIV. However, there is data paucity on NCD risk and prevention in adolescents with HIV in high HIV-burden settings. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which NCD comorbidity (prevention, diagnosis, and management) is incorporated within existing adolescent HIV primary healthcare services in Cape Town, South Africa.

METHODS

We reviewed medical records of 491 adolescents and youth living with HIV (AYLHIV) aged 10-24 years across nine primary care facilities in Cape Town from November 2018-March 2019. Folders were systematically sampled from a master list of all AYLHIV per facility and information on HIV management and care, NCDs, NCD risk and NCD-related health promotion extracted.

RESULTS

The median age was 20 years (IQR: 14-23); median age at ART initiation 18 years (IQR: 6-21) and median duration on ART 3 years (IQR: 1.1-8.9). Fifty five percent of participants had a documented comorbidity, of which 11% had an NCD diagnosis with chronic respiratory diseases (60%) and mental disorders (37%) most common. Of those with documented anthropometrics (62%), 48% were overweight or obese. Fifty nine percent of participants had a documented blood pressure, of which 27% were abnormal. Twenty-six percent had a documented health promoting intervention, 42% of which were NCD-related; ranging from alcohol or substance abuse (13%); smoking (9%); healthy weight or diet (9%) and mental health counselling (10%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates limited NCD screening and health promotion in AYLHIV accessing healthcare services. Where documented, our data demonstrates existing NCD comorbidity and NCD risk factors highlighting a missed opportunity for multimorbidity prevention through NCD screening and health promotion. Addressing this missed opportunity requires an integrated health system and intersectoral action on upstream NCD determinants to turn the tide on the rising NCD and multimorbidity epidemic.

Neo-Liberalism, Policy Incoherence and Discourse Coalitions Influencing Non-Communicable Disease Strategy Comment on "How Neoliberalism Is Shaping the Supply of Unhealthy Commodities and What This Means for NCD Prevention"

Lencucha and Thow have highlighted the way in which neo-liberalism is enshrined within institutional mechanisms and conditions the policy environment to shape public policy on non-communicable diseases (NCDs). They critique the strong (but important) focus of public health policy research on corporate interests and influence over NCD policy, and point toward neo-liberal policy paradigms shaping the relationship between the state, market and society as an area for critique and further exploration. They also importantly underline the way in which the neo-liberal policy paradigm shapes the supply of unhealthy goods and argue that health advocates have not engaged enough with supply side issues in critiques of policy debates on NCDs. This is an important consideration especially in the Asia-Pacific where trade and agricultural policies have markedly shaped production and what is being produced within countries. In this commentary, I reflect upon how neoliberalism shapes intersectoral action across trade, development and health within and across institutions. I also consider scope for international civil society to engage in advocacy on NCDs, especially where elusive ‘discourse coalitions’ influenced by neoliberalism may exist, rather than coordinated ‘advocacy coalitions.’

Big Tobacco, Alcohol, and Food and NCDs in LMICs: An Inconvenient Truth and Call to Action Comment on "Addressing NCDs: Challenges From Industry Market Promotion and Interferences"

In their editorial, Tangcharoensathien et al1 describe the challenges of industry market promotion and policy interference from Big Tobacco, Alcohol, and Food in addressing non-communicable diseases (NCDs). They provide an overview of the increasing influence of corporate interest in emerging economies and government attempts to implement the World Health Organization (WHO) 'best buy' interventions. The authors largely draw on examples from Asia and a few selected countries, but provide little detail as to how aggressive marketing and policy interference plays out in a context of poor legislation and regulation in many low- and middleincome countries (LMICs), where the burden of NCDs is increasing at an alarming rate and governments face a high burden of disease with a limited budget for countering industry interference. This commentary provides some poignant examples of the influence of Big Tobacco, Alcohol, and Food on market regulation and policy interference in LMICs and argues for more policy coherence and accountability in terms of multisectoral action and civil society activism. Securing funds for health promotion and establishing health promotion foundations could help achieve that goal.

Fostering the Catalyst Role of Government in Advancing Healthy Food Environments

Effective approaches to non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention require intersectoral action targeting health and engaging government, industry, and society. There is an ongoing vigorous exploration of the most effective and appropriate role of government in intersectoral partnerships. This debate is particularly pronounced with regards to the role of government in controlling unhealthy foods and promoting healthy food environments. Given that food environments are a key determinant of health, and the commercial sector is a key player in shaping such environments (eg, restaurants, grocery stores), the relationship between government and the commercial sector is of primary relevance. The principal controversy at the heart of this relationship pertains to the potential influence of commercial enterprises on public institutions. We propose that a clear distinction between the regulatory and catalyst roles of government is necessary when considering the nature of the relationship between government and the commercial food sector. We introduce a typology of three catalyst roles for government to foster healthy food environments with the commercial sector and suggest that a richer understanding of the contrasting roles of government is needed when considering approaches NCD prevention via healthy food environments.

Environmental and nutrition impact of achieving new School Food Plan recommendations in the primary school meals sector in England

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this modelling study was to estimate the expected changes in the nutritional quality and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) of primary school meals due to the adoption of new mandatory food-based standards for school meals.

SETTING

Nationally representative random sample of 136 primary schools in England was selected for the Primary School Food Survey (PSFS) with 50% response rate.

PARTICIPANTS

A sample of 6690 primary students from PSFS who consumed school meals.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary School Food Plan (SFP) nutritional impact was assessed using both macronutrient and micronutrient quality. The environmental impact was measured by GHGEs.

METHODS

The scenario tested was one in which every meal served in schools met more than half of the food-based standards mentioned in the SFP (SFP scenario). We used findings from a systematic review to assign GHGE values for each food item in the data set. The GHGE value and nutritional quality of SFP scenario meals was compared with the average primary school meal in the total PSFS data set (pre-SFP scenario). Prior to introduction of the SFP (pre-SFP scenario), the primary school meals had mandatory nutrient-based guidelines.

RESULTS

The percentage of meals that met the protein standard increased in the SFP scenario and the proportion of meals that met the standards for important micronutrients (eg, iron, calcium, vitamin A and C) also increased. However, the SFP scenario did not improve the salt, saturated fat and free sugar levels. The mean GHGE value of meals which met the SFP standards was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81) kgCO₂e compared with a mean value of 0.72 (0.71 to 0.74) kgCO₂e for all meals. Adopting the SFP would increase the total emissions associated with primary school meals by 22 000 000 kgCO₂e per year.

CONCLUSIONS

The universal adoption of the new food-based standards, without reformulation would result in an increase in the GHGEs of school meals and improve some aspects of the nutritional quality, but it would not improve the average salt, sugar and saturated fat content levels.