The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Non-COVID-19 Deaths: Population-Wide Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Health care avoidance in the COVID-19 pandemic has been widely reported. Yet few studies have investigated the dynamics of hospital avoidance behavior during pandemic waves and inferred its impact on excess non-COVID-19 deaths.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to measure the impact of hospital avoidance on excess non-COVID-19 deaths in public hospitals in Hong Kong.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study involving 11,966,786 patients examined between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2021, in Hong Kong. All data were linked to service, treatment, and outcomes. To estimate excess mortality, the 2-stage least squares method was used with daily tallies of emergency department (ED) visits and 28-day mortality. Records for older people were categorized by long-term care (LTC) home status, and comorbidities were used to explain the demographic and clinical attributes of excess 28-day mortality. The primary outcome was actual excess death in 2020 and 2021. The 2-stage least squares method was used to estimate the daily excess 28-day mortality by daily reduced visits.

RESULTS

Compared with the prepandemic (2016-2019) average, there was a reduction in total ED visits in 2020 of 25.4% (548,116/2,142,609). During the same period, the 28-day mortality of non-COVID-19 ED deaths increased by 7.82% (2689/34,370) compared with 2016-2019. The actual excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 were 3143 and 4013, respectively. The estimated total excess non-COVID-19 28-day deaths among older people in 2020 to 2021 were 1958 (95% CI 1100-2820; no time lag). Deaths on arrival (DOAs) or deaths before arrival (DBAs) increased by 33.6% (1457/4336) in 2020, while non-DOA/DBAs increased only by a moderate 4.97% (1202/24,204). In both types of deaths, the increases were higher during wave periods than in nonwave periods. Moreover, non-LTC patients saw a greater reduction in ED visits than LTC patients across all waves, by more than 10% (non-LTC: 93,896/363,879, 25.8%; LTC: 7,956/67,090, 11.9%). Most of the comorbidity subsets demonstrated an annualized reduction in visits in 2020. Renal diseases and severe liver diseases saw notable increases in deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated a statistical method to estimate hospital avoidance behavior during a pandemic and quantified the consequent excess 28-day mortality with a focus on older people, who had high frequencies of ED visits and deaths. This study serves as an informed alert and possible investigational guideline for health care professionals for hospital avoidance behavior and its consequences.

Health Insurance Literacy and Medical Care Avoidance Among International Students: A Case Study

Objectives: This research examines the health insurance literacy and healthcare utilization of international students attending a university in the US Midwest. Methods: One hundred and forty-three undergraduate and graduate students attending a midsize metropolitan university in the Midwest completed an online survey in early 2022. Results: Many students surveyed could not identify the definitions of basic terms, such as copay. Furthermore, about 80% of students surveyed could not determine their financial responsibilities in two medical settings. Regression results show that the continent they are from and the length of their stay in the United States significantly predict their understanding of key health insurance terms. More than half of the international students surveyed indicated they often feel confused about their health insurance (57.34%). Only about 20% have delayed or skipped care due to unfamiliarity with the health insurance system. Conclusion: The health insurance literacy of most international students at the midwestern university we surveyed is not ideal. This and possibly other universities in the United States should take more initiatives to help their international students understand the health insurance system.

Increasing Inclusivity and Reducing Reactance During Provider-Patient Interactions

BACKGROUND

Significant health disparities exist for trans and gender-nonconforming patients, in part caused by a reduced likelihood of seeking health care due to experienced discrimination in health care settings. Increasing inclusivity in patient-provider interactions can decrease barriers to care seeking for these patients, but such advice to providers must be simple to implement and account for potential backlash among certain patient subgroups.

METHODS

In 3 studies, we use online samples to experimentally test patient reactions to 2 methods of provider inclusivity signaling: verbal sharing of the provider's pronouns and request for the patient's pronouns (a method frequently suggested in the literature) and the provider wearing a pin indicating their pronouns without verbal sharing or requesting that the patient share their pronouns.

RESULTS

Study 1 finds that political orientation significantly moderated the effect of pronoun request on patient satisfaction with the visit, P = .003; satisfaction with the doctor, P = .003; and willingness to return to the provider, P = .007, with politically liberal participants being more satisfied and more likely to return when pronouns were requested and politically conservative participants less satisfied and less likely to return. Study 2 replicated these findings and demonstrated that such backlash among conservative participants did not occur when inclusivity was indicated via the provider wearing a pin indicating their pronouns. Study 3 showed that while pronoun pins may be subtle enough to not cause backlash, they are noticed by the target community and increase satisfaction and willingness to return among participants who identify as trans, nonbinary, and genderqueer.

LIMITATIONS

These studies were hypothetical scenario studies run online rather than field studies.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that recommendations for increasing inclusivity should account for potential negative impacts on the practice from more politically conservative patients and that more subtle methods of indicating an inclusive health care environment are likely to be more implementable for practitioners in the field while still positively affecting the target population.

HIGHLIGHTS

Increasing inclusivity in health care settings by verbally sharing and requesting pronouns can cause backlash and aggression among politically conservative patients.More subtle methods of inclusivity signaling such as providers wearing pins sharing their own pronouns do not have this type of backlash effect and increase satisfaction and willingness to return among non-cisgender patients.Recommendations for increasing inclusivity in health care settings should consider negative reactions from other patient subgroups to ensure recommendations are those providers are likely to be willing and able to implement long term.

Cost-effectiveness of a Telemonitoring Program for Patients With Heart Failure During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong: Model Development and Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused patients to avoid seeking medical care. Provision of telemonitoring programs in addition to usual care has demonstrated improved effectiveness in managing patients with heart failure (HF).

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine the potential clinical and health economic outcomes of a telemonitoring program for management of patients with HF during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of health care providers in Hong Kong.

METHODS

A Markov model was designed to compare the outcomes of a care under COVID-19 (CUC) group and a telemonitoring plus CUC group (telemonitoring group) in a hypothetical cohort of older patients with HF in Hong Kong. The model outcome measures were direct medical cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the model assumptions and the robustness of the base-case results.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, the telemonitoring group showed a higher QALY gain (1.9007) at a higher cost (US $15,888) compared to the CUC group (1.8345 QALYs at US $15,603). Adopting US $48,937/QALY (1 × the gross domestic product per capita of Hong Kong) as the willingness-to-pay threshold, telemonitoring was accepted as a highly cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effective ratio of US $4292/QALY. No threshold value was identified in the deterministic sensitivity analysis. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, telemonitoring was accepted as cost-effective in 99.22% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to the current outpatient care alone under the COVID-19 pandemic, the addition of telemonitoring-mediated management to the current care for patients with HF appears to be a highly cost-effective strategy from the perspective of health care providers in Hong Kong.