Biogeography and environmental preferences of Butia yatay (Mart.) Becc

During the Quaternary, Chaco Phytogeographic Domain (Chaco) flora in subtropical South America experienced temperature and humidity fluctuations, primarily driven by wind dynamics, leading to significant shifts in species distribution. The palm Butia yatay is endemic to the Chaco and thrives in areas characterized by a warm-rainy climate and mostly restricted to sandy soils. To investigate the current geographic distribution of suitable habitat for B. yatay while assessing the significance of soil variables, we employed two distinct algorithms in species distribution modeling (SDM). We also determined whether the distribution of B. yatay has changed since the Pleistocene and whether these changes align with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia. In the present SDMs, we considered two separate sets of predictors, one set with bioclimatic variables only and the other set with bioclimatic topographic and soil variables. Additionally, we reconstructed the historical geographic distribution of suitable habitats using bioclimatic data. Our results suggested that the primary determinants of B. yatay's current distribution include precipitation and temperature of the driest month and soil cation exchange capacity. Incorporating soil variables affected the estimated size and range of suitable areas. Projections into the past indicated similar suitable habitat distributions during interglacial periods compared with the present. During the Last Glacial Maximum, climatically suitable habitat may have shifted northward, partially overlapping with previously suggested Pleistocene refugia located between the Paraná and Uruguay Rivers. These findings indicate the main factors driving the distribution and ecology of B. yatay and enhance understanding of subtropical flora shifts during the Quaternary. The approach also may prove valuable for other studies within the Chaco.

Ecogeography of Dioscorea remotiflora Kunth: An Endemic Species from Mexico

Dioscorea remotiflora, a perennial climbing herbaceous plant native to Mexico, produces tubers with great nutritional and ethnobotanical value. However, most ecological aspects of this plant remain unknown, which limits its cultivation and use. This is why the objective of this research was to characterize the ecogeography of D. remotiflora as a source to determine its edaphoclimatic adaptability and current and potential distribution. A comprehensive database encompassing 480 geo-referenced accessions was assembled from different data sources. Using the Agroclimatic Information System for México and Central America (SIAMEXCA), 42 environmental variables were formulated. The MaxEnt model within the Kuenm R package was employed to predict the species distribution. The findings reveal a greater presence of D. remotiflora in harsh environments, characterized by arid to semiarid conditions, poor soils, and hot climates with long dry periods. Niche modeling revealed that seven key variables determine the geographical distribution of D. remotiflora: precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, November-April solar radiation, annual mean relative humidity, annual moisture availability index, and May-October mean temperature. The current potential distribution of D. remotiflora is 428,747.68 km2. Favorable regions for D. remotiflora coincide with its current presence sites, while other suitable areas, such as the Yucatán Peninsula, northeast region, and Gulf of Mexico, offer potential expansion opportunities for the species distribution. The comprehensive characterization of Dioscorea remotiflora, encompassing aspects such as its soil habitats and climate adaptation, becomes essential not only for understanding its ecology but also for maximizing its economic potential. This will enable not only its sustainable use but also the exploration of commercial applications in sectors such as the pharmaceutical and food industries, thus providing a broader approach for its conservation and optimal utilization in the near future.

Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Leonurus japonicus in China based on future climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model

Leonurus japonicus Houtt. is a traditional Chinese medicinal plant with high medicinal and edible value. Wild L. japonicus resources have reduced dramatically in recent years. This study predicted the response of distribution range of L. japonicus to climate change in China, which provided scientific basis for the conservation and utilization. In this study, 489 occurrence points of L. japonicus were selected based on GIS technology and spThin package. The default parameters of MaxEnt model were adjusted by using ENMeva1 package of R environment, and the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyze the distribution of L. japonicus. When the feature combination in the model parameters is hing and the regularization multiplier is 1.5, the MaxEnt model has a higher degree of optimization. With the AUC of 0.830, our model showed a good predictive performance. The results showed that L. japonicus were widely distributed in the current period. The maximum temperature of warmest month, the min temperature of coldest month, the precipitation of wettest month, the precipitation of driest month, and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. japonicus. Under the three climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution area of L. japonicus will range shift to high latitudes, indicating that the distribution of L. japonicus has a strong response to climate change. The regional change rate is the lowest under the SSP126-2090s scenario and the highest under the SSP585-2090s scenario.

Wild canids and the ecological traps facing the climate change and deforestation in the Amazon Forest

Ecological traps occur when species choose to settle in lower-quality habitats, even if this reduces their survival or productivity. This happens in situations of drastic environmental changes, resulting from anthropogenic pressures. In long term, this could mean the extinction of the species. We investigated the dynamics of occurrence and distribution of three canid species (Atelocynus microtis, Cerdocyon thous, and Spheotos venaticus) considering human threats to their habitats in the Amazon Rainforest. We analyzed the environmental thresholds for the occurrence of these species and related to the future projections of climatic niches for each one. All three species will be negatively affected by climate change in the future, with losses of up to 91% of the suitable area of occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. A. microtis appear to be more forest-dependent and must rely on the goodwill of decision-makers to be maintained in the future. For C. thous and S. venaticus, climatic variables and those associated with anthropogenic disturbances that modulate their niches today may not act the same way in the future. Even though C. thous is least dependent on the Amazon Forest; this species may be affected in the future due to the ecological traps. S. venaticus, can also undergo the same process, but perhaps more drastically due to the lower ecological plasticity of this species compared to C. thous. Our results suggest that the ecological traps may put these two species at risk in the future. Using the canid species as a model, we had the opportunity to investigate these ecological effects that can affect a large part of the Amazonian fauna in the current scenario. Considering the high degree of environmental degradation and deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest, the theory of ecological traps must be discussed at the same level as the habitat loss, considering the strategies for preserving the Amazon biodiversity.

Leveraging Public Data to Predict Global Niches and Distributions of Rhizostome Jellyfishes

As climate change progresses rapidly, biodiversity declines, and ecosystems shift, it is becoming increasingly difficult to document dynamic populations, track fluctuations, and predict responses to climate change. Concurrently, publicly available databases and tools are improving scientific accessibility, increasing collaboration, and generating more data than ever before. One of the most successful projects is iNaturalist, an AI-driven social network doubling as a public database designed to allow citizen scientists to report personal biodiversity reports with accuracy. iNaturalist is especially useful for the research of rare, dangerous, and charismatic organisms, but requires better integration into the marine system. Despite their abundance and ecological relevance, there are few long-term, high-sample datasets for jellyfish, which makes management difficult. To provide some high-sample datasets and demonstrate the utility of publicly collected data, we synthesized two global datasets for ten genera of jellyfishes in the order Rhizostomeae containing 8412 curated datapoints from both iNaturalist (n = 7807) and the published literature (n = 605). We then used these reports in conjunction with publicly available environmental data to predict global niche partitioning and distributions. Initial niche models inferred that only two of ten genera have distinct niche spaces; however, the application of machine learning-based random forest models suggests genus-specific variation in the relevance of abiotic environmental variables used to predict jellyfish occurrence. Our approach to incorporating reports from the literature with iNaturalist data helped evaluate the quality of the models and, more importantly, the quality of the underlying data. We find that free, accessible online data is valuable, yet subject to biases through limited taxonomic, geographic, and environmental resolution. To improve data resolution, and in turn its informative power, we recommend increasing global participation through collaboration with experts, public figures, and hobbyists in underrepresented regions capable of implementing regionally coordinated projects.

Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics

The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific-based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation-by-environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.

Genome-wide SNPs reveal recurrent waves of speciation in niche-pockets, in Europe's most venomous snake

Within the Balkan Peninsula, topographic and climatic agents have promoted biodiversity and shaped the speciation history of many ectotherms. Here, we targeted an iconic European reptile, the nose-horned viper species-complex (Vipera ammodytes), and explored its spatial and temporal evolution. We (1) utilized genome-wide SNPs to infer genetic structure and build a time-calibrated species-tree, and (2) applied species distribution modeling (SDM) with niche-divergence tests among major phylogenomic clades. Geographically structured genetic diversity was found. Cycles of recurrent isolation and expansion during glacial-interglacial periods led to allopatric speciation and to secondary contacts and formation of multiple hybrid zones throughout the Balkan Peninsula. Deep divergence is still detected among populations separated by old and imminent biogeographical barriers (e.g. Pindos Mountain Range, the Cyclades islands etc.), but in most cases speciation is incomplete. At the other end of the speciation continuum, we recognize two well-differentiated lineages, currently lacking any evidence of gene-flow; one is distributed in the Northwestern Balkans and the other in the Southeastern Balkans, further expanding into Asia. Despite their split 5 Mya, there is no evidence of ecological divergence, as speciation probably occurred in niche-pockets of analogous environments. These two lineages probably represent different species, while V. transcaucasiana does not merit species-status. By comparing the genomic phylogenies to an updated mitochondrial one, we propose an evolutionary scenario that resolves all mito-nuclear conflicts, according to which the history of the V. ammodytes species-complex was shaped by complex processes, including a major event of introgressive hybridization with asymmetric mitochondrial capture.

Animal-mediated plant niche tracking in a changing climate

Over half of plant species are animal-dispersed, and our understanding of how animals can help plants move in response to climate change - a process known as niche tracking - is limited, but advancing rapidly. Recent research efforts find evidence that animals are helping plants track their niches. They also identify key conditions needed for animal-mediated niche tracking to occur, including alignment of the timing of seed availability, the directionality of animal movements, and microhabitat conditions where seeds are deposited. A research framework that measures niche tracking effectiveness by considering all parts of the niche-tracking process, and links together data and models from multiple disciplines, will lead to further insight and inform actions to help ecosystems adapt to a changing world.

Assessing genomic and ecological differentiation among subspecies of the Rough-footed Mud Turtle, Kinosternon hirtipes

Combining genetic and ecological measures of differentiation can provide compelling evidence for ecological and genetic divergence among lineages. The Rough-footed Mud Turtle, Kinosternon hirtipes, is distributed from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas to the highlands of Central Mexico and contains six described subspecies, five of which are extant. We use ddRAD sequencing and species distribution models to assess levels of ecological and genetic differentiation among these subspecies. We also predict changes in climatically suitable habitat under different climate change scenarios and assess levels of genetic diversity and inbreeding within each lineage. Our results show that there is strong genetic and ecological differentiation among multiple lineages within K. hirtipes, and that this differentiation appears to be the result of vicariance associated with the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. We propose changes to subspecies designations to more accurately reflect the evolutionary relationships among populations and assess threats to each subspecies.

Climate change-induced distributional change of medicinal and aromatic plants in the Nepal Himalaya

Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) contribute to human well-being via health and economic benefits. Nepal has recorded 2331 species of MAPs, of which around 300 species are currently under trade. Wild harvested MAPs in Nepal are under increasing pressure from overexploitation for trade and the effects of climate change and development. Despite some localized studies to examine the impact of climate change on MAPs, a consolidated understanding is lacking on how the distribution of major traded species of MAPs will change with future climate change. This study identifies the potential distribution of 29 species of MAPs in Nepal under current and future climate using an ensemble modeling and hotspot approach. Future climate change will reduce climatically suitable areas of two-third of the studied species and decrease climatically suitable hotspots across elevation, physiography, ecoregions, federal states, and protected areas in Nepal. Reduction in climatically suitable areas for MAPs might have serious consequences for the livelihood of people that depend on the collection and trade of MAPs as well as Nepal's national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to consider the threats that future climate change may have on distribution of MAPs while designing protected areas and devising environmental conservation and climate adaptation policies.

Utilizing citizen science to model the distribution of Aedes aegypti in West Africa

In the rapidly urbanizing region of West Africa, Aedes mosquitoes pose an emerging threat of infectious disease that is compounded by limited vector surveillance. Citizen science has been proposed as a way to fill surveillance gaps by training local residents to collect and share information on disease vectors. Understanding the distribution of arbovirus vectors in West Africa can inform researchers and public health officials on where to conduct disease surveillance and focus public health interventions. We utilized citizen science data collected through NASA's GLOBE Observer mobile phone application and data from a previously published literature review on Aedes mosquito distribution to examine the contribution of citizen science to understanding the distribution of Ae. aegypti in West Africa using Maximum Entropy modeling. Combining citizen science and literature-derived observations improved the fit of the model compared to models created by each data source alone but did not alleviate location bias within the models, likely due to lack of widespread observations. Understanding Ae. aegypti distribution will require greater investment in Aedes mosquito surveillance in the region, and citizen science should be utilized as a tool in this mission to increase the reach of surveillance.

Natural Hybrid Origin of the Controversial "Species" Clematis × pinnata (Ranunculaceae) Based on Multidisciplinary Evidence

Interspecific hybridization is common and has often been viewed as a driving force of plant diversity. However, it raises taxonomic problems and thus impacts biodiversity estimation and biological conservation. Although previous molecular phylogenetic studies suggested that interspecific hybridization may be rather common in Clematis, and artificial hybridization has been widely applied to produce new Clematis cultivars for nearly two centuries, the issue of natural hybridization of Clematis has never been addressed in detail. In this study, we tested the hybrid origin of a mesophytic and cold-adapted vine species, Clematis pinnata, which is a rare and taxonomically controversial taxon endemic to northern China. Using field investigations, flow cytometry (FCM), phylogenomic analysis, morphological statistics, and niche modeling, we tested hybrid origin and species status of C. pinnata. The FCM results showed that all the tested species were homoploid (2n = 16). Phylonet and HyDe analyses based on transcriptome data showed the hybrid origins of C. × pinnata from either C. brevicaudata × C. heracleifolia or C. brevicaudata × C. tubulosa. The plastome phylogeny depicted that C. × pinnata in different sampling sites originated by different hybridization events. Morphological analysis showed intermediacy of C. × pinnata between its putative parental species in many qualitative and quantitative characters. Niche modeling results suggested that C. × pinnata had not been adapted to a novel ecological niche independent of its putative parents. These findings demonstrated that plants of C. × pinnata did not formed a self-evolved clade and should not be treated as a species. The present study also suggests that interspecific hybridization is a common mechanism in Clematis to generate diversity and variation, and it may play an important role in the evolution and diversification of this genus. Our study implies that morphological diversity caused by natural hybridization may overstate the real species diversity in Clematis.

Species Delimitation of Asteropyrum (Ranunculaceae) Based on Morphological, Molecular, and Ecological Variation

Objectively evaluating different lines of evidence within a formalized framework is the most efficient and theoretically grounded approach for defining robust species hypotheses. Asteropyrum Drumm. et Hutch. is a small genus of perennial herb containing two species, A. cavaleriei and A. peltatum. The distinction of these two species mainly lies in the shape and size of leaf blades. However, these characters have been considered labile and could not differentiate the two species reliably. In this study, we investigated the variation of the leaf blades of 28 populations across the whole range of Asteropyrum using the landmark-based geometric morphometrics (GMM), sought genetic gaps within this genus using DNA barcoding, phylogenetic reconstruction and population genetic methods, and compared the predicted ecological niches of the two species. The results showed that the leaf form (shape and size) was overlapped between the two species; barcode gap was not detected within the genus Asteropyrum; and little ecological and geographical differentiation was found between the two taxa. Two genetic clusters detected by population genetic analysis did not match the two morphospecies. The results suggest that there are no distinct boundaries between the two species of Asteropyrum in terms of morphology, genetics and ecology and this present classification should be abandoned. We anticipate that range-wide population genomic studies would properly delineate the species boundaries and help to understand the evolution and speciation within Asteropyrum.

Variable precipitation leads to dynamic range limits of forest songbirds at a forest-grassland ecotone

Boundaries between vegetation types, known as ecotones, can be dynamic in response to climatic changes. The North American Great Plains includes a forest-grassland ecotone in the southcentral United States that has expanded and contracted in recent decades in response to historical periods of drought and pluvial conditions. This dynamic region also marks a western distributional limit for many passerine birds that typically breed in forests of the eastern United States. To better understand the influence that variability can exert on broad-scale biodiversity, we explored historical longitudinal shifts in the western extent of breeding ranges of eastern forest songbirds in response to the variable climate of the southern Great Plains. We used climatic niche modeling to estimate current distributional limits of nine species of forest-breeding passerines from 30-year average climate conditions from 1980 to 2010. During this time, the southern Great Plains experienced an unprecedented wet period without periodic multi-year droughts that characterized the region's long-term climate from the early 1900s. Species' climatic niche models were then projected onto two historical drought periods: 1952-1958 and 1966-1972. Threshold models for each of the three time periods revealed dramatic breeding range contraction and expansion along the forest-grassland ecotone. Precipitation was the most important climate variable defining breeding ranges of these nine eastern forest songbirds. Range limits extended farther west into southern Great Plains during the more recent pluvial conditions of 1980-2010 and contracted during historical drought periods. An independent dataset from BBS was used to validate 1966-1972 range limit projections. Periods of lower precipitation in the forest-grassland ecotone are likely responsible for limiting the western extent of eastern forest songbird breeding distributions. Projected increases in temperature and drought conditions in the southern Great Plains associated with climate change may reverse range expansions observed in the past 30 years.

The roles of dispersal limitation, climatic niches and glacial history in endemism of the North American bryophyte flora

PREMISE

Bryophytes (mosses, liverworts, and hornworts) tend to have very large geographic ranges, which impedes progress toward understanding the drivers of diversification and extinction. This study aimed to investigate whether North American endemics differ geographically from more widespread species and whether differences in climatic niche or traits related to dispersal and establishment differ between endemics and more widespread species.

METHODS

All available herbarium records of bryophytes from North America north of Mexico (10⁶ collections) were used. Traits related to dispersal were obtained from the literature. Analyses tested whether range sizes and extents differed between endemics and nonendemics, and whether trait differences were associated with endemism. Climate data were used to determine whether differences in niche breadth are present between endemics and nonendemics, and whether suitable climate for endemics occurs outside North America.

RESULTS

Nonendemics have range sizes twice as large as endemics and they occur farther north and have greater longitudinal extents. However, they do not have the widest niche breadths and do not differ in spore size (with few exceptions) or sexual condition. Asexual propagules are more prevalent among nonendemics. Climatic models indicate that substantial areas of climate suitable for endemics exist outside of North America.

CONCLUSIONS

Distributions of endemics and nonendemics are consistent with an important role of glaciation in shaping the North American bryophyte flora. Endemics are not limited to the continent based on a lack of suitable climate elsewhere or by spore size or sexual condition.

Past, present, and future geographic range of the relict Mediterranean and Macaronesian Juniperus phoenicea complex

AIM

The aim of this study is to model the past, current, and future distribution of J. phoenicea s.s., J. turbinata, and J. canariensis, based on bioclimatic variables using a maximum entropy model (Maxent) in the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions.

LOCATION

Mediterranean and Macaronesian.

TAXON

Cupressaceae, Juniperus.

METHODS

Data on the occurrence of the J. phoenicea complex were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org), the literature, herbaria, and the authors' field notes. Bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database and Paleoclim. The climate data related to species localities were used for predictions of niches by implementation of Maxent, and the model was evaluated with ENMeval.

RESULTS

The potential niches of Juniperus phoenicea during the Last Interglacial period (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum climate (LGM), and Mid-Holocene (MH) covered 30%, 10%, and almost 100%, respectively, of the current potential niche. Climate warming may reduce potential niches by 30% in RCP2.6 and by 90% in RCP8.5. The potential niches of Juniperus turbinata had a broad circum-Mediterranean and Canarian distribution during the LIG and the MH; its distribution extended during the LGM when it was found in more areas than at present. The predicted warming in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 could reduce the current potential niche by 30% and 50%, respectively. The model did not find suitable niches for J. canariensis during the LIG and the LGM, but during the MH its potential niche was 30% larger than at present. The climate warming scenario RCP2.6 indicates a reduction in the potential niche by 30%, while RCP8.5 so indicates a reduction of almost 60%.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

This research can provide information for increasing the protection of the juniper forest and for counteracting the phenomenon of local extinctions caused by anthropic pressure and climate changes.

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate

Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non-native species in Europe. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models.

Assessing the ecological niche and invasion potential of the Asian giant hornet

The Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) was recently detected in western British Columbia, Canada and Washington State, United States. V. mandarinia are an invasion concern due to their ability to kill honey bees and affect humans. Here, we used habitat suitability models and dispersal simulations to assess potential invasive spread of V. mandarinia. We show V. mandarinia are most likely to establish in areas with warm to cool annual mean temperature, high precipitation, and high human activity. The realized niche of introduced populations is small compared to native populations, suggesting introduced populations could spread into habitats across a broader range of environmental conditions. Dispersal simulations also show that V. mandarinia could rapidly spread throughout western North America without containment. Given its potential negative impacts and capacity for spread, extensive monitoring and eradication efforts throughout western North America are warranted.

Expansion of the Emerging Fungal Pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus Into America: Linking Phylogenetic Origin, Geographical Spread and Population Under Exposure Risk

In 2018 the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus (AFLP5/VGIII) was isolated for the first time in Chile, representing the only report in a temperate region in South America. We reconstructed the colonization process of C. bacillisporus in Chile, estimating the phylogenetic origin, the potential spread zone, and the population at risk. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the strain and modeled the environmental niche of the pathogen projecting its potential spread zone into the new colonized region. Finally, we generated risk maps and quantified the people under potential risk. Phylogenetic analysis showed high similarity between the Chilean isolate and two clonal clusters from California, United States and Colombia in South America. The pathogen can expand into all the temperate Mediterranean zone in central Chile and western Argentina, exposing more than 12 million people to this pathogen in Chile. This study has epidemiological and public health implications for the response to a potential C. bacillisporus outbreak, optimizing budgets, routing for screening diagnosis, and treatment implementation.

Corrigendum: Different Patterns of Ecological Divergence Between Two Tetraploids and Their Diploid Counterpart in a Parapatric Linear Coastal Distribution Polyploid Complex

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2020.00315.].

Geographic distribution and abundance of the Afrotropical subterranean scale insect Stictococcus vayssierei (Hemiptera: Stictococcidae), a pest of root and tuber crops in the Congo basin

Stictococcus vayssierei is a major pest of root and tuber crops in central Africa. However, data on its ecology are lacking. Here we provide an updated estimate of its distribution with the aim of facilitating the sustainable control of its populations. Surveys conducted in nine countries encompassing 13 ecological regions around the Congo basin showed that African root and tuber scale was present in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Uganda. It was not found on the sites surveyed in Chad and Nigeria. The pest occurred in the forest and the forest-savannah mosaic as well as in the savannah where it was never recorded before. However, prevalence was higher in the forest (43.1%) where cassava was the most infested crop, compared to the savannah (9.2%) where aroids (cocoyam and taro) were the most infested crops. In the forest habitat, the pest was prevalent in all but two ecological regions: the Congolian swamp forests and the Southern Congolian forest-savanna mosaic. In the savannah habitat, it was restricted to the moist savannah highlands and absent from dry savannahs. The scale was not observed below 277 m asl. Where present, the scale was frequently (87.1% of the sites) attended by the ant Anoplolepis tenella. High densities (>1000 scales per plant) were recorded along the Cameroon-Gabon border. Good regulatory measures within and between countries are required to control the exchange of plant materials and limit its spread. The study provides information for niche modeling and risk mapping.

Different Patterns of Ecological Divergence Between Two Tetraploids and Their Diploid Counterpart in a Parapatric Linear Coastal Distribution Polyploid Complex

Polyploidization is a widespread mechanism of evolutionary divergence in flowering plants. Ecological divergence of polyploid lineages has been proposed as a key process shaping the distribution of cytotypes in nature (niche shift hypothesis); however, evidence for the role of niche separation in replicated diploid-polyploid species pairs is still needed. This study aimed to assess the role of abiotic factors shaping current cytotype distributions. For that, we examined the distribution and environmental niches of two varieties recognized in diploid-tetraploid Jasione maritima across the species range and within a putative contact zone on the Iberian Peninsula. We counted chromosomes, screened for ploidy across Iberian Peninsula and characterized environmental requirements using niche modeling tools. We found that J. maritima var. maritima is composed by diploids with disjunct distribution in the west coast of France and northwest Iberian Peninsula, and by tetraploids in Iberian Peninsula, while var. sabularia is tetraploid. In the Iberian Peninsula, two parapatric contact zones along a linear coastal distribution were detected, one between diploid and tetraploid var. maritima, and the other between tetraploids of the two varieties. Environmental variables of diploid populations from France are distinct from those of southern diploid populations, which are more similar to tetraploids. In general, niche modeling results are congruent with the observed distribution patterns, although the results suggest a wider contact zone between varieties and cytotypes. Tetraploids of both varieties revealed different degrees of environmental divergence in comparison with their diploid counterpart. Tetraploid var. sabularia differed environmentally from diploids suggesting niche divergence. In contrast, tetraploid var. maritima overlapped with diploid environmental niche and currently occupies its entire predicted range, whereas diploids are restricted to northern areas of their suitable environment. Differences in ecological envelopes facilitate the recognition of functional units of biodiversity within polyploid groups, allowing the study of factors related to post-polyploidization divergence. Thus, whereas changes in environmental requirements may have allowed tetraploid var. sabularia to spread in habitats not favorable to diploids, other factors are involved with the distribution of diploid and tetraploid var. maritima.

Ecological niche differences between two polyploid cytotypes of Saxifraga rosacea

PREMISE

Different cytotypes of a species may differ in their morphology, phenology, physiology, and their tolerance of extreme environments. We studied the ecological niches of two subspecies of Saxifraga rosacea with different ploidy levels: the hexaploid Central European endemic subspecies sponhemica and the more widely distributed octoploid subspecies rosacea.

METHODS

For both cytotypes, we recorded local environmental conditions and mean plant trait values in populations across their areas of distribution, analyzed their distributions by niche modeling, studied their performance at two transplant sites with contrasting conditions, and experimentally tested their cold resistance.

RESULTS

Mean annual temperature was higher in hexaploid than in octoploid populations and experiments indicated that frost tolerance of the hexaploid is lower than that of the octoploid. Reproduction of octoploids from Central Europe was higher than that of hexaploids at a transplant site in subarctic Iceland, whereas the opposite was true in temperate Luxembourg, indicating adaptation of the octoploids to colder conditions. Temperature variables were also most important in niche models predicting the distribution of the two cytotypes. Genetic differences in survival among populations were larger for the octoploids than for the hexaploids in both field gardens, suggesting that greater genetic variability may contribute to the octoploid's larger distributional range.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the hypotheses that different cytotypes may have different niches leading to spatial segregation, and that higher ploidy levels can result in a broader ecological niche and greater tolerance of more extreme conditions.

Niche Modeling of Economically Important Mahanarva (Hemiptera, Cercopidae) Species in South and Central America: Are Brazilian Spittlebug Sugarcane Pests Potential Invaders of South and Central America?

Mahanarva fimbriolata, Mahanarva spectabilis, Mahanarva liturata, and Mahanarva posticata (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) are known pests in South American sugarcane and pasture plantations. They cause phytotoxicity by feeding directly from plant sap, greatly decreasing their production. In this work, we applied Species Distribution Modeling using the Maxent algorithm to analyze these four spittlebug species possible occurrence in South and Central America. Therefore, current and future bioclimatic variables, as well as elevation and other agricultural variables, were used within RStudio. Future climatic variables were differentiated between the years 2050 and 2070 with several representative concentration pathways. Overall, the species showed various suitable habitats in different countries of South and Central America. Nevertheless, when compared with future climate analysis, the number of suitable habitats is declining due to climate change. Elevation, isothermality, and different precipitation variables were mainly responsible for the results. We were able to analyze that spittlebug populations are not limited by temperature, but rather by other abiotic factors, such as precipitation.

Acacia dealbata invasion in Chile: Surprises from climatic niche and species distribution models

AIM

Tree invasions are a threat to biodiversity conservation, and although it is hard to predict the future spread of invasive tree species, there are tools available which could allow some estimations. The magnitude of spatial spread (a proxy of invasiveness) can be predicted from species climatic requirement (climatic niche) and can be represented by species distribution models (SDMs). We aimed to assess whether Acacia dealbata conserves its niche in the new environment of south-central Chile, and also, to estimate the invasive stage of the species.

LOCATION

South-central area of Chile, between the O'Higgins (34°0″0'S) and Aysen Regions (47°0″0'S).

METHODS

We used a combination of global, native, and regional data to improve the estimation of the potential distribution of A. dealbata, which has been considered one of the most invasive species of the genus, being registered in at least 34 countries in all the Continents.

RESULTS

Our results show that A. dealbata does not conserve its niche in the study area, invading areas with climatic conditions different from those of the native range. It is also not at equilibrium with the environment. According to the global versus regional SDM comparisons, populations present in south-central Chile present different invasion stages. There are some stable populations, but there are other populations colonizing new areas, occupying unsuitable habitats and some of them are adapting to new climatic conditions. Climatic factors, such as precipitation seasonality, could be acting behind the expansion to new environments, and biotic factors or dispersal limitations could be preventing the species to colonize suitable areas.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The invasion process of A. dealbata is far from stabilizing, and management options should focus on prevention, avoiding, for example, the introduction of the species to Patagonia where the species has not spread yet. More research is needed to complement our results and enhance the development of effective management strategies.

Invasive Plant Species Establishment and Range Dynamics in Sri Lanka under Climate Change

Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future.

Phylogeography and species limits in the red-shouldered hawk (Buteo lineatus): Characterization of the Northern Florida Suture Zone in birds

The North American red-shouldered hawk, Buteo lineatus, is comprised of two widely allopatric eastern and western populations with an additional well-marked subspecies in the Florida peninsula. The two eastern populations meet in northern Florida, the location of a well-known suture zone in many nonavian organisms. We sequenced the complete mitochondrial ND2 gene and two nuclear introns to investigate its genetic population structure and species status. No mitochondrial haplotypes were shared between the eastern and western populations, and genetic variance among 14 populations was 0.42; almost all of this (0.40) was distributed among the three regions. A clade of haplotypes very common in the Florida peninsula decreased in frequency elsewhere and, when modeled as a hybrid zone, had an estimated width of 1,158 km with a center near Ocala, FL. Ecological niche modeling suggests the western, eastern, and Florida peninsula populations were geographically isolated during the last glacial maximum. We consider these to represent three phylogenetic species. A coalescent analysis incorporating incomplete lineage sorting and gene tree uncertainty also suggested the divergence between the western and eastern populations is consistent with species-level divergence. With the addition of this hawk, four avian species are now known to hybridize along the Gulf Coast of the United States in or near the Northern Florida Suture Zone. The widths of these avian zones vary substantially (176-1,158 km) and appear to reflect magnitude of gene flow, rather than extent of genetic differentiation. None of these birds was suggested as possible exemplars in the original description of the suture zone. Of the six species that were so identified, three have been surveyed to date, but none of those was found to be genetically differentiated.

Tracking microhabitat temperature variation with iButton data loggers

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Fine-scale variation in temperature and soil moisture contribute to microhabitats across the landscape, affecting plant phenology, distribution, and fitness. The recent availability of compact and inexpensive temperature and humidity data loggers such as iButtons has facilitated research on microclimates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Here, we highlight the use of iButtons in three distinct settings: comparisons of empirical data to modeled climate data for rare rock ferns in the genus Asplenium in eastern North America; generation of fine-scale data to predict flowering time and vernalization responsiveness of crop wild relatives of chickpea from southeastern Anatolia; and measurements of extreme thermal variation of solar array installations in Vermont.

DISCUSSION

We highlight a range of challenges with iButtons, including serious limitations of the Hygrochron function that affect their utility for measuring soil moisture, and methods for protecting them from the elements and from human interference. Finally, we provide MATLAB code to facilitate the processing of raw iButton data.

SPECIES: A platform for the exploration of ecological data

The modeling of ecological data that include both abiotic and biotic factors is fundamental to our understanding of ecosystems. Repositories of biodiversity data, such as GBIF, iDigBio, Atlas of Living Australia, and SNIB (Mexico's National System of Biodiversity Information), contain a great deal of information that can lead to knowledge discovery about ecosystems. However, there is a lack of tools with which to efficiently extract such knowledge. In this paper, we present SPECIES, an open, web-based platform designed to extract implicit information contained in large scale sets of ecological data. SPECIES is based on a tested methodology, wherein the correlations of variables of arbitrary type and spatial resolution, both biotic and abiotic, discrete and continuous, may be explored from both niche and network perspectives. In distinction to other modeling systems, SPECIES is a full stack exploratory tool that integrates the three basic components: data (which is incrementally growing), a statistical modeling and analysis engine, and an interactive visualization front end. Combined, these components provide a powerful tool that may guide ecologists toward new insights. SPECIES is optimized to support fast hypothesis prototyping and testing, analyzing thousands of biotic and abiotic variables, and presenting descriptive results to the user at different levels of detail. SPECIES is an open-access platform available online (http://species.conabio.gob.mx), that is, powerful, flexible, and easy to use. It allows for the exploration and incorporation of ecological data and its subsequent integration into predictive models for both potential ecological niche and geographic distribution. It also provides an ecosystemic, network-based analysis that may guide the researcher in identifying relations between different biota, such as the relation between disease vectors and potential disease hosts.

Combining mitochondrial and nuclear genome analyses to dissect the effects of colonization, environment, and geography on population structure in Pinus tabuliformis

The phylogeographic histories of plants in East Asia are complex and shaped by both past large-scale climatic oscillations and dramatic tectonic events. The impact of these historic events, as well as ecological adaptation, on the distribution of biodiversity remains to be elucidated. Pinus tabuliformis is the dominant coniferous tree in northern China, with a large distribution across wide environmental gradients. We examined genetic variation in this species using genotyping-by-sequencing and mitochondrial (mt) DNA markers. We found population structure on both nuclear and mt genomes with a geographic pattern that corresponds well with the landscape of northern China. To understand the contributions of environment, geography, and colonization history to the observed population structure, we performed ecological niche modeling and partitioned the among-population genomic variance into isolation by environment (IBE), isolation by distance (IBD), and isolation by colonization (IBC). We used mtDNA, which is transmitted by seeds in pine, to reflect colonization. We found little impact of IBE, IBD, and IBC on variation in neutral SNPs, but significant impact of IBE on a group of outlier loci. The lack of IBC illustrates that the maternal history can be quickly eroded from the nuclear genome by high rates of gene flow. Our results suggest that genomic variation in P. tabuliformis is largely affected by neutral and stochastic processes, and the signature of local adaptation is visible only at robust outlier loci. This study enriches our understanding on the complex evolutionary forces that shape the distribution of genetic variation in plant taxa in northern China, and guides breeding, conservation, and reforestation programs for P. tabuliformis.

Species distribution models and empirical test: Comparing predictions with well-understood geographical distribution of Bothrops alternatus in Argentina

Species distribution models (SDMs) estimate the geographical distribution of species although with several limitations due to sources of inaccuracy and biases. Empirical tests arose as the most important steps in scientific knowledge to assess the efficiency of model predictions, which are poorly rigorous in SDMs. A good approach to the empirical distribution (ED) of a species can be obtained from comprehensive empirical knowledge, that is, well-understood distributions gathered from large amount of data generated with appropriate spatial and temporal samples coverage. The aims of this study were to (a) compare different SDMs predictions with an ED; and (b) evaluate if fuzzy global matching (FGM) could be used as an index to compare SDMs predictions and ED. Six algorithms with 5 and 20 variables were used to assess their accuracy in predicting the ED of the venomous snake Bothrops alternatus (Viperidae). Its entire distribution is known, thanks to thorough field surveys across Argentina, with 1,767 records. ED was compared with SDMs predictions using Map Comparison Kit. SDMs predictions showed important biases in all methods used, from 70% sub-estimation to 40% over-estimation of ED. BIOCLIM predicted ≈31% of B. alternatus ED. DOMAIN predicted 99% of ED, but over-estimated 40% of the area. GLM with five variables calculated 75% of ED, while Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction showed ≈60% of ED; the last two presenting overpredictions in areas with favorable climatic conditions but not inhabited by the species. MaxEnt and RF were the only methods to detect isolated populations in the southern distribution of B. alternatus. Although SDMs proved useful in making predictions about species distribution, predictions need validation with expert maps knowledge and ED. Moreover, FGM showed a good performance as an index with values similar to True Skill Statistic, so that it could be used to relate ED and SDMs predictions.

Spatial phylogenetics reveals evolutionary constraints on the assembly of a large regional flora

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

We used spatial phylogenetics to analyze the assembly of the Wisconsin flora, linking processes of dispersal and niche evolution to spatial patterns of floristic and phylogenetic diversity and testing whether phylogenetic niche conservatism can account for these patterns.

METHODS

We used digitized records and a new molecular phylogeny for 93% of vascular plants in Wisconsin to estimate spatial variation in species richness and phylogenetic α and β diversity in a native flora shaped mainly by postglacial dispersal and response to environmental gradients. We developed distribution models for all species and used these to infer fine-scale variation in potential diversity, phylogenetic distance, and interspecific range overlaps. We identified 11 bioregions based on floristic composition, mapped areas of neo- and paleo-endemism to establish new conservation priorities and predict how community-assembly patterns should shift with climatic change.

KEY RESULTS

Spatial phylogenetic turnover most strongly reflects differences in temperature and spatial distance. For all vascular plants, assemblages shift from phylogenetically clustered to overdispersed northward, contrary to most other studies. This pattern is lost for angiosperms alone, illustrating the importance of phylogenetic scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Species ranges and assemblage composition appear driven primarily by phylogenetic niche conservatism. Closely related species are ecologically similar and occupy similar territories. The average level and geographic structure of plant phylogenetic diversity within Wisconsin are expected to greatly decline over the next half century, while potential species richness will increase throughout the state. Our methods can be applied to allochthonous communities throughout the world.

Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes

Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.

Genomic data reject the hypothesis of sympatric ecological speciation in a clade of Desmognathus salamanders

Closely related taxa with dissimilar morphologies are often considered to have diverged via natural selection favoring different phenotypes. However, some studies have found these scenarios to be paired with limited or no genetic differentiation. Desmognathus quadramaculatus and D. marmoratus are sympatric salamander species thought to represent a case of ecological speciation based on distinct morphologies, but the results of previous studies have not resolved corresponding patterns of lineage divergence. Here, we use genome-wide data to test this hypothesis of ecological speciation. Population structure analyses partitioned individuals geographically, but not morphologically, into two adjacent regions of western North Carolina: Pisgah and Nantahala. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the nominal species are nonmonophyletic and resolved deep divergence between the two geographic clusters. Model-testing overwhelmingly supported the hypothesis that lineage divergence followed geography. Finally, ecological niche modeling showed that Pisgah and Nantahala individuals occupy different climatic niches, and geographic boundaries for the two lineages correspond to differences in precipitation regimes across southern Appalachia. Overall, we reject the previous hypothesis of ecological speciation based on microhabitat partitioning. Instead, our results suggest that there are two cryptic lineages, each containing the same pair of morphotypes.

Inferring the geographic origin of a range expansion: Latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates inferred from genomic data in an ABC framework with the program x-origin

Climatic or environmental change is not only driving distributional shifts in species today, but it has also caused distributions to expand and contract in the past. Inferences about the geographic locations of past populations especially regions that served as refugia (i.e., source populations) and migratory routes are a challenging endeavour. Refugial areas may be evidenced from fossil records or regions of temporal stability inferred from ecological niche models. Genomic data offer an alternative and broadly applicable source of information about the locality of refugial areas, especially relative to fossil data, which are either unavailable or incomplete for most species. Here, we present a pipeline we developed (called x-origin) for statistically inferring the geographic origin of range expansion using a spatially explicit coalescent model and an approximate Bayesian computation testing framework. In addition to assessing the probability of specific latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates of refugial or source populations, such inferences can also be made accounting for the effects of temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneity, which may impact migration routes. We demonstrate x-origin with an analysis of genomic data collected in the Collared pika that underwent postglacial expansion across Alaska, as well as present an assessment of its accuracy under a known model of expansion to validate the approach.

A new cryptic species and review of the east-Andean leaf chafer genus Mesomerodon Ohaus, 1905 (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae)

The Neotropical scarab beetle genus Mesomerodon Ohaus (Scarabaeidae: Rutelinae: Rutelini) is distributed in the western (lowland) Amazonian region from Colombia to Bolivia. Based on our research, the genus includes three species including a new cryptic species from Ecuador. We use niche modeling to predict potential suitable habitat and identify environmental factors associated with the distribution of Mesomerodon species. We characterize the genus, provide a key to species, diagnose each species, describe a new species, provide spatial and temporal distributions, and discuss distributions of the species in relation to Amazonian landscape biodiversity.

Quantifying the degree of bias from using county-scale data in species distribution modeling: Can increasing sample size or using county-averaged environmental data reduce distributional overprediction?

Citizen-science databases have been used to develop species distribution models (SDMs), although many taxa may be only georeferenced to county. It is tacitly assumed that SDMs built from county-scale data should be less precise than those built with more accurate localities, but the extent of the bias is currently unknown. Our aims in this study were to illustrate the effects of using county-scale data on the spatial extent and accuracy of SDMs relative to true locality data and to compare potential compensatory methods (including increased sample size and using overall county environmental averages rather than point locality environmental data). To do so, we developed SDMs in maxent with PRISM-derived BIOCLIM parameters for 283 and 230 species of odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) and butterflies, respectively, for five subsets from the OdonataCentral and Butterflies and Moths of North America citizen-science databases: (1) a true locality dataset, (2) a corresponding sister dataset of county-centroid coordinates, (3) a dataset where the average environmental conditions within each county were assigned to each record, (4) a 50/50% mix of true localities and county-centroid coordinates, and (5) a 50/50% mix of true localities and records assigned the average environmental conditions within each county. These mixtures allowed us to quantify the degree of bias from county-scale data. Models developed with county centroids overpredicted the extent of suitable habitat by 15% on average compared to true locality models, although larger sample sizes (>100 locality records) reduced this disparity. Assigning county-averaged environmental conditions did not offer consistent improvement, however. Because county-level data are of limited value for developing SDMs except for species that are widespread and well collected or that inhabit regions where small, climatically uniform counties predominate, three means of encouraging more accurate georeferencing in citizen-science databases are provided.

Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray-cheeked Thrush (C. minimus)

Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. mimimus), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic‐only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic‐only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over‐project thrush distributions compared to abiotic‐only or biotic‐only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), whereas Gray‐cheeked Thrush often co‐occurs with black spruce (Picea mariana). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray‐cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.

Landscape genetics indicate recently increased habitat fragmentation in African forest-associated chafers

Today, indigenous forests cover less than 0.6% of South Africa's land surface and are highly fragmented. Most forest relicts are very small and typically occur in fire-protected gorges along the eastern Great Escarpment. Yet, they hold a unique and valuable fauna with high endemism and ancient phylogenetic lineages, fostered by long-term climatic stability and complex microclimates. Despite numerous studies on southern African vegetation cover, the current state of knowledge about the natural extension of indigenous forests is rather fragmentary. We use an integrated approach of population-level phylogeography and climatic niche modeling of forest-associated chafer species to assess connectivity and extent of forest habitats since the last glacial maximum. Current and past species distribution models ascertained potential fluctuations of forest distribution and supported a much wider potential current extension of forests based on climatic data. Considerable genetic admixture of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA among many populations and an increase in mean population mutation rate in Extended Bayesian Skyline Plots of all species indicated more extended or better connected forests in the recent past (<5 kya). Genetic isolation of certain populations, as revealed by population differentiation statistics (GST'), as well as landscape connectivity statistics and habitat succession scenarios suggests considerable loss of habitat connectivity. As major anthropogenic influence is likely, conservational actions need to be considered.

Habitat suitability and demography, a time-dependent relationship

The habitat suitability index, which reflects spatial variability in species occurrence probability, has been shown to exhibit various contrasting relationships with local demographic performances (survival, productivity) in several species. One proposed explanation for these discrepancies is that the link between the habitat suitability index and demography is influenced by density-dependent, temporally variable processes. Based on the survival rates of more than 3,000 nests monitored over 12 years in the North African Houbara Bustard, we investigated whether the habitat suitability index computed over the species breeding range is related to nest survival throughout the breeding season, accounting for variation in meteorological conditions. We found that the relationship between the habitat suitability index and nest survival progressively changes along the breeding season and that this intra-annual variation is consistent between years. Our results support the hypothesis that variation in space use occurs intra-annually and that biotic interactions throughout the breeding season strongly influence the habitat suitability index-demography relationship.

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Environmental (in)dependence of a hybrid zone: Insights from molecular markers and ecological niche modeling in a hybrid zone of Origanum (Lamiaceae) on the island of Crete

The role of environment and the relative significance of endogenous versus exogenous selection in shaping hybrid zones have been crucial issues in the studies of hybridization. Recent advances in ecological niche modeling (ENM) offer new methodological tools, especially in combination with the genotyping of individuals in the hybrid zone. Here, we study the hybrid zone between the widely known spices Origanum onites and Origanum vulgare ssp. hirtum in Crete. We analyze the genetic structure of both parental taxa and their hybrid Origanum × intercendens using AFLP markers on 15 sympatric and 12 allopatric populations and employ ecological niche modeling and niche similarity tests to study their niche patterns. We complement these analyses with seed viability measurements. Our study revealed that the hybridizing taxa O. onites and O. vulgare ssp. hirtum and the resulting genotypic classes showed geographical and environmental niche similarities based on the predictions of ENMs and the subsequent similarity tests. The occurrence of the hybrid zone is not directly dependent on environmental factors which favor the fitness of the hybrid compared to the parental taxa, but rather on aspects such as historical factors and management practices, which may contribute to the localization and maintenance of the contact zone between parental species. Our results suggest that if a minimum required niche differentiation between genotypic classes is not achieved, environmental dependence might not have a prominent role on the outcome of the hybridization.

Mapping Global Potential Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) Using MaxEnt and CLIMEX Niche Models

The apple maggot, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a major quarantine pest of apples (Malus domestica Borkhausen) in the United States. Apple maggot is found only in North America and negatively impacts the apple industry in the western United States by reducing grower access to export markets. To reduce the threat of apple maggot to export countries and to facilitate the movement of commercial apples, an assessment of potential risk of establishment of apple maggot is needed to predict which regions are suitable or unsuitable for the fly. We used a correlative niche model MaxEnt and a mechanistic model CLIMEX to model global potential risk of establishment of apple maggot. The MaxEnt model was developed by integrating apple maggot occurrences with global climatic variables. Apple (a major host of apple maggot) climatic suitability was used as an additional variable to include species interactions in the MaxEnt model. The CLIMEX model was developed using published apple maggot physiological tolerance thresholds. Both the MaxEnt and CLIMEX models correctly predicted the known distribution of apple maggot in North America, met biological expectations when projected to the world, and mostly agreed on climatic suitability worldwide for the fly. Degree-days at 6.7 °C, elevation, precipitation seasonality, and apple climatic suitability were the most important predictors associated with apple maggot distribution in North America. Our results can be used to make science-based international trade decisions by policy makers, and for monitoring apple maggot potential introductions in countries where it currently does not occur.

Niche divergence between diploid and autotetraploid Tolmiea

PREMISE OF STUDY

Polyploidy is common in eukaryotes and is of major evolutionary importance over both short and long time-scales. Compared to allopolyploids, autopolyploids remain understudied; they are often morphologically cryptic and frequently remain taxonomically unrecognized, although there is increasing recognition of the high frequency of autopolyploidy in angiosperms. While autopolyploidy can serve as an instant speciation mechanism, little is known about the ecological consequences of this process. We describe the ecological divergence of a diploid-autotetraploid species pair in Tolmiea.

METHODS

We investigated whether abiotic niche divergence has shaped the current allopatric distribution of diploid T. diplomenziesii and its autotetraploid derivative, T. menziesii, in the Pacific Northwest of North America. We employed field measures of light availability, as well as niche modeling and a principal component analysis of environmental space. Within a common garden, we also investigated physiological responses to changes in soil moisture.

KEY RESULTS

Diploid and autotetraploid Tolmiea inhabit significantly different climatic niche spaces. The climatic niche divergence between these two species is best explained by a shift in precipitation availability, and we found evidence of differing physiological response to water availability between these species.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that spatial segregation of T. diplomenziesii and T. menziesii was accompanied by adaptation to changes in climatic regime. Tolmiea menziesii is not a nascent autotetraploid, having persisted long enough to be established throughout the Pacific Northwest, and therefore both polyploidization and subsequent evolution have contributed to the observed differences between T. menziesii and T. diplomenziesii.

Evolutionary and Ecological Characterization of Mayaro Virus Strains Isolated during an Outbreak, Venezuela, 2010

In 2010, an outbreak of febrile illness with arthralgic manifestations was detected at La Estación village, Portuguesa State, Venezuela. The etiologic agent was determined to be Mayaro virus (MAYV), a reemerging South American alphavirus. A total of 77 cases was reported and 19 were confirmed as seropositive. MAYV was isolated from acute-phase serum samples from 6 symptomatic patients. We sequenced 27 complete genomes representing the full spectrum of MAYV genetic diversity, which facilitated detection of a new genotype, designated N. Phylogenetic analysis of genomic sequences indicated that etiologic strains from Venezuela belong to genotype D. Results indicate that MAYV is highly conserved genetically, showing ≈17% nucleotide divergence across all 3 genotypes and 4% among genotype D strains in the most variable genes. Coalescent analyses suggested genotypes D and L diverged ≈150 years ago and genotype diverged N ≈250 years ago. This virus commonly infects persons residing near enzootic transmission foci because of anthropogenic incursions.

Ecological niche models of invasive seaweeds

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are commonly used to calculate habitat suitability from species' occurrence and macroecological data. In invasive species biology, ENMs can be applied to anticipate whether invasive species are likely to establish in an area, to identify critical routes and arrival points, to build risk maps and to predict the extent of potential spread following an introduction. Most studies using ENMs focus on terrestrial organisms and applications in the marine realm are still relatively rare. Here, we review some common methods to build ENMs and their application in seaweed invasion biology. We summarize methods and concepts involved in the development of niche models, show examples of how they have been applied in studies on algae and discuss the application of ENMs in invasive algae research and to predict effects of climate change on seaweed distributions.

Modeling the Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Vectors (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Iran: A Potential Transmission in Disease Prone Areas

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is now the main vector-borne disease in Iran. Two forms of the disease exist in the country, transmitted by Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti s.l. Modeling distribution of the vector species is beneficial for preparedness and planning to interrupt the transmission cycle. Data on sand fly distribution during 1990-2013 were used to predict the niche suitability. MaxEnt algorithm model was used for prediction using bioclimatic and environmental variables (precipitation, temperature, altitude, slope, and aspect). Regularized training, area under the curve, and unregularized training gains were 0.916, 0.915, and 1.503, respectively, for Ph. papatasi. These values were calculated as 0.987, 0.923, and 1.588 for Ph. sergenti s.l. The jackknife test showed that the environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation has the mean temperature of the wettest quarter for both species, while slope decreases the gain the most when it is omitted from the model. Classification of probability of presence for two studied species was performed on five classes using equal intervals in ArcGIS. More than 60% probability of presence was considered as areas with high potential of CL transmission. These areas include arid and semiarid climates, mainly located in central part of the country. Mean of altitude, annual precipitation, and temperature in these areas were calculated 990 and 1,235 m, 273 and 226 mm, and 17.5 and 16.4°C for Ph. papatasi and Ph. sergenti s.l., respectively. These findings can be used in the prediction of CL transmission potential, as well as for planning the disease control interventions.

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change

Understanding how biodiversity will respond to climate change is a major challenge in conservation science. Climatic changes are likely to impose serious threats to many organisms, especially those with narrow distribution ranges, small populations and low dispersal capacity. Lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) are endangered primates endemic to Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), and all four living species are typical examples of these aggravating conditions. Here, we integrate ecological niche modeling and GIS-based information about BAF remnants and protected areas to estimate the exposure (i.e., the extent of climate change predicted to be experienced by a species) of current suitable habitats to climate change for 2050 and 2080, and to evaluate the efficacy of existing reserves to protect climatically suitable areas. Niche models were built using Maxent and then projected onto seven global circulation models derived from the A1B climatic scenario. According to our projections, the occurrence area of L. caissara will be little exposed to climate change. Western populations of L. chrysomelas could be potentially exposed, while climatically suitable habitats will be maintained only in part of the eastern region. Protected areas that presently harbor large populations of L. chrysopygus and L. rosalia will not retain climatic suitability by 2080. Monitoring trends of exposed populations and protecting areas predicted to hold suitable conditions should be prioritized. Given the potential exposure of key lion tamarin populations, we stress the importance of conducting additional studies to assess other aspects of their vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity to climate and adaptive capacity) and, therefore, to provide a more solid framework for future management decisions in the context of climate change.

Increase in quantity and quality of suitable areas for invasive species as climate changes

As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima.