Contagion to unrest: Investigating the link between disease and civil unrest in Africa

Scholars, policymakers, and citizens alike remain invested in the impact of infectious diseases worldwide. Studies have found that emerging diseases and disease outbreaks burden global economies and public health goals. This article explores the potential link between measles outbreaks and various forms of civil unrest, such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, and other anti-government violence, in four central African countries from 1996 to 2005. Using a difference-in-differences model, we examine whether disease outbreaks have a discernible impact on the prevalence of civil unrest. While our findings indicate that the relationship between disease and civil unrest is not as strong as previously suggested, we identify a notable trend that warrants further investigation. These results have significant implications for health and policy officials in understanding the complex interplay between state fragility, civil unrest, and the spread of disease.

Building and Testing of a Conceptual Model to Describe and Measure the Health of People as Affected by Post-traumatic Stress Disorder During Social Unrest: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling

Background

Social unrest affects people's health and well-being. People's health-related needs during social unrest are concerns in both research and clinical practice. This study aimed to build and test a framework to describe and understand the health status and needs of people with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) during social unrest.

Methods

This study was a cross-sectional survey. A total of 460 people who had experienced post-traumatic distress as a result of the social unrest in 2019 and 2020 were included. A conceptual model comprised four essential areas, namely posttraumatic distress symptoms, participation restrictions, perceived stigma and functional disability, was built from literature. Part 1 validated four instruments that evaluate and define the factor structure of these four areas, In Part II, structural equation modeling was used to test and validate a combined model.

Results

Factors underlying the four areas were defined. Analysis using structural equation modeling confirmed a best fit of the model. PTSD symptoms, perceived stigma and participation restriction during social unrest contributed significantly to functional disability; PTSD symptoms exerted a direct effect on participation restriction and perceived stigma; and the effect of PTSD symptoms on functional disability was mediated through its influence on perceived stigma during social unrest.

Conclusions

A community-based inclusive approach is essential to understand the holistic needs of people with PTSD during social unrest. To improve health and well-being in addition to evaluating mental health impacts, considering interactions with the rapid change and stressful social environment is essential.

Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple public health, socio-economic, and institutional crises. Measures taken to slow the spread of the virus have fostered significant strain between authorities and citizens, leading to waves of social unrest and anti-government demonstrations. We study the temporal nature of pandemic-related disorder events as tallied by the "COVID-19 Disorder Tracker" initiative by focusing on the three countries with the largest number of incidents, India, Israel, and Mexico. By fitting Poisson and Hawkes processes to the stream of data, we find that disorder events are inter-dependent and self-excite in all three countries. Geographic clustering confirms these features at the subnational level, indicating that nationwide disorders emerge as the convergence of meso-scale patterns of self-excitation. Considerable diversity is observed among countries when computing correlations of events between subnational clusters; these are discussed in the context of specific political, societal and geographic characteristics. Israel, the most territorially compact and where large scale protests were coordinated in response to government lockdowns, displays the largest reactivity and the shortest period of influence following an event, as well as the strongest nationwide synchrony. In Mexico, where complete lockdown orders were never mandated, reactivity and nationwide synchrony are lowest. Our work highlights the need for authorities to promote local information campaigns to ensure that livelihoods and virus containment policies are not perceived as mutually exclusive.

Homicide committed by individuals with severe mental illnesses: A comparative study before and after the Tunisian revolution of January 14th, 2011

BACKGROUND

Many studies have established a correlation between the increase of homicide rates, and economic crises and rapid social changes following historical events. We propose to analyse the impact of the Tunisian Revolution on homicide rates in Tunisia in a clinical population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective comparative study of all individuals who commited an homicide and were admitted, at least once, to the forensic psychiatry unit in Razi Hospital between January 1st, 2004 and December 31st, 2018 after a decision of irresponsibility by reason of insanity.

RESULTS

The number of homicides committed by the individuals with mental illness included in our study was multiplied by a factor of 1.3 after the revolution, with a prevalence of 11.0% between 2004 and 2011, compared to a prevalence of 14.7% during the period 2011-2018. No significant difference was noted between the two groups regarding the socio-demographic characteristics or the characteristics of the act committed.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlighted that political and socio-economic crises following the Tunisian revolution significantly contributed to an increase of homicide rates in people with severe mental illness. Thus, macro-level socioeconomic determinants would be important to consider in homicide prevention strategies.

COVID-19 and Fake News in the Dominican Republic

The first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Dominican Republic coincided with a period of political crisis. Distrust in governmental institutions shaped the critical phase of early response. Having a weak public health infrastructure and a lack of public trust, the Ministry of Health (MoH) began the fight against COVID-19 with a losing streak. Within 45 days of the first reported case, the political crisis and turmoil caused by "fake news" are limiting the capacity and success of the MoH response to the pandemic.

South Sudan: a young country’s fight against COVID-19

COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that has started to creep into African countries including South Sudan. Following confirmation of the first few cases, the government enacted preventive measures to curb community transmission. However, daunting challenges deter these precautionary measures. Just after two years the country took its independence from Sudan, civil conflicts sparked and continue to overburden and undermine the fragile healthcare system. The conflicts have caused disruption of health services, destruction of health facilities, death and migration of health workers, displacements of a huge number of people. This scenario continues while the country is grappling with the pandemic. Other concerning issues include: insufficient COVID-19 testing capacity, limited medical and personal protective equipment and an inadequate number of health workers which leave the country ill-equipped in the battle against the pandemic. Non-compliance of COVID-19 prevention protocols by the general public due to high rate of poverty and social stigma contribute to the spread of the virus. The current situation in South Sudan make evident that there is a need for an immediate ceasefire by the warring sides so the available health services including COVID-19 efforts, are not disrupted to ensure the safety of all. The government needs to further build the capacity of its health sector with the cooperation of its international health allies to be able to provide its citizens with the health services they need.

COVID-19 pandemic and civil unrests in Africa: implication of recent #EndSARS protests for increased community transmission in Nigeria

The recent Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the novel strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus) has become a worldwide public health crisis with associated high mortality rates globally. Human to human transmission of the infection emphasizes the importance of adhering to public and social measure to halt its spread. However, the recent #ENDSARS protests led by angry youths in Nigeria resulted to complete flouting of all WHO guidelines meted to curb the spread of the virus. Given that the nation is the most populous African country with over 50 percent of her population been youths, this situation has huge implications for the country and Africa as a whole. The risk of community transmission occasioned by the protest, coupled with travels and active mobility across countries within the continent increases the risk of community transmission with possible increases in new cases over the next few weeks to months. From the foregoing, it is expedient to increase awareness and enforcement of the use of personal protective equipment especially use of nose masks, face shields and frequent hand washing or sanitizing in public places. These individual-targeted measures will go a long way to curtail the imminent community transmission of COVID-19 across Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that Government and non-governmental agencies across the region actively engage to increase collaborative efforts; screening facilities and access to these services across the country, as well as accentuate regular adherence to preventive measures to the general public.

Preparing for campus demonstrations and protests: Four key focus areas

Over the past few years, the number of demonstrations and protests in Western countries has been increasing. These protests have tested the limits of free speech and expression, leading to individuals and groups attempting to, and in some cases succeeding in, shutting down speech with which they do not agree or find offensive. This has been particularly acute on college campuses, most notably at the University of California, Berkeley and Auburn University in Alabama, where speakers with far-right conservative views were forced to cancel their planned speeches because of safety and security concerns. As a result, colleges and universities throughout the USA are re-examining their policies and procedures for speaking engagements and demonstrations and protests, and how to manage them effectively while keeping their campus communities safe. This paper suggests methods by which universities can put into place policies, procedures and guidelines to minimise the possibility of an event becoming violent and overwhelming university resources while at the same time balancing the need for security and an environment that promotes the free exchange of ideas and expression.

Can we halt health workforce deterioration in failed states? Insights from Guinea-Bissau on the nature, persistence and evolution of its HRH crisis

BACKGROUND

Guinea-Bissau is one of the world's poorest and least developed countries. Amid poverty, political turmoil and state withdrawal, its health workforce (HW) has been swamped for the last four decades in a deepening crisis of under-resourcing, poor performance and laissez-faire.

METHODS

The present study aimed at analysing the human resources for health (HRH) situation in Guinea-Bissau in light of the recent literature on distressed health systems, with the objective of contributing to understanding the ways health workers react to protracted turmoil, the resulting distortions and the counter-measures that might be considered. Through document analysis, focus group discussions, 14 semi-structured and 5 in-depth interviews, we explored patterns as they became visible on the ground.

RESULTS

Since independence, Guinea-Bissau experienced political events that have reflected on the healthcare arena and on the evolution of its health workforce, such as different coup attempts, waves of diaspora and shifting external assistance. The chronic scarcity of funds and a 'stable political instability' have lead to the commercialisation of public health services and to flawed mechanisms for training and deploying health personnel. In absence of any form of governance, health workers have come to own and run the health system. We show that the HRH crisis in Guinea-Bissau can only be understood by looking at its historical evolution and at the wider socio-economic context. There are no quick fixes for the deterioration of HRH in undergoverned states; however, the recognition of the ingrained distortions and an understanding of the forces determining the behaviour of key actors are essential premises for the identification of solutions.

CONCLUSIONS

Guinea-Bissau's case study suggests that any policy that does not factor in the limited clout of health authorities over a effectively privatised healthcare arena is doomed from the start. Improving health system governance and quality of training should take precedence over expanding HRH. A bloated and ineffective workforce must be managed through incentives rather than administrative orders, in order to improve skills and productivity against higher remuneration and better working conditions. Donor support might be crucial to trigger positive changes, through realistic and sustained investments.

Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework

This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya.

[Military psychiatry in a theatre of operations: on mission in Mali]

The recent missions of military psychiatrists in the theatres of operation underline the reactivity of the French healthcare system, focused on the expertise of the combat unit doctor. Operation Serval in Mali illustrates in particular the methods of medical-psychological support in exceptional situations, across a vast geographical area and in very difficult climatic conditions. The concept of "forward psychiatry" has a particularly important role to play in the early screening and treatment of psychological disorders in order to preserve the operational capacity of the deployed personnel.

[Psychological impact on French soldiers in the Central African Republic]

The many constraints and psychologically demanding situations to which French soldiers are subjected (living conditions, operational pace, scenes of exaction, hostile crowds, combat situations) have justified a psychiatrist being posted to the theatre of operation Sangaris, in the Central African Republic, soon after the military intervention began. While the psychiatrist's activity is typical of psychiatry in operational situations,.the configuration of the conflict- a civil war - and its impact on the psyche of the soldiers making up the task force have resulted in these practices being adapted and acknowledgement of the need to update skills.

The path towards universal health coverage in the Arab uprising countries Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen

The constitutions of many countries in the Arab world clearly highlight the role of governments in guaranteeing provision of health care as a right for all citizens. However, citizens still have inequitable health-care systems. One component of such inequity relates to restricted financial access to health-care services. The recent uprisings in the Arab world, commonly referred to as the Arab spring, created a sociopolitical momentum that should be used to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). At present, many countries of the Arab spring are considering health coverage as a priority in dialogues for new constitutions and national policy agendas. UHC is also the focus of advocacy campaigns of a number of non-governmental organisations and media outlets. As part of the health in the Arab world Series in The Lancet, this report has three overarching objectives. First, we present selected experiences of other countries that had similar social and political changes, and how these events affected their path towards UHC. Second, we present a brief overview of the development of health-care systems in the Arab world with regard to health-care coverage and financing, with a focus on Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. Third, we aim to integrate historical lessons with present contexts in a roadmap for action that addresses the challenges and opportunities for progression towards UHC.

'Not men enough to rule!': politicization of ethnicities and forcible circumcision of Luo men during the postelection violence in Kenya

BACKGROUND

As a contribution to ongoing research addressing sexual violence in war and conflict situations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Rwanda, this paper argues that the way sexual violence intersects with other markers of identity, including ethnicity and class, is not clearly articulated. Male circumcision has been popularized, as a public health strategy for prevention of HIV transmission, although evidence of its efficacy is disputable and insufficient attention has been given to the social and cultural implications of male circumcision.

METHODS

This paper draws from media reporting and the material supporting the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court case against four Kenyans accused of crimes against humanity, to explore the postelection violence, especially forcible male circumcision.

RESULTS

During the postelection violence in Kenya, women were, as in other conflict situations, raped. In addition, men largely from the Luo ethnic group were forcibly circumcised. Male circumcision among the Gikuyu people is a rite of passage, but when forced upon the Luo men, it was also associated with cases of castration and other forms of genital mutilation. The aim appears to have been to humiliate and terrorize not just the individual men, but their entire communities. The paper examines male circumcision and questions why a ritual that has marked a life-course transition for inculcating ethical analysis of the self and others, became a tool of violence against men from an ethnic group where male circumcision is not a cultural practice.

CONCLUSION

The paper then reviews the persistence and change in the ritual and more specifically, how male circumcision has become, not just a sexual health risk, but, contrary to the emerging health discourse and more significantly, a politicized ethnic tool and a status symbol among the Gikuyu elite. In the view of the way male circumcision was perpetrated in Kenya, we argue it should be considered as sexual violence, with far-reaching consequences for men's physical and mental health.