Country-specific net-zero strategies of the pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is an important contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions1,2. Country-specific strategies are essential for the industry to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, given its vast heterogeneities across countries3,4. Here we develop a comprehensive bottom-up assessment of net greenhouse gas emissions of the domestic paper-related sectors for 30 major countries from 1961 to 2019-about 3.2% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from the same period5-and explore mitigation strategies through 2,160 scenarios covering key factors. Our results show substantial differences across countries in terms of historical emissions evolution trends and structure. All countries can achieve net-zero emissions for their pulp and paper industry by 2050, with a single measure for most developed countries and several measures for most developing countries. Except for energy-efficiency improvement and energy-system decarbonization, tropical developing countries with abundant forest resources should give priority to sustainable forest management, whereas other developing countries should pay more attention to enhancing methane capture rate and reducing recycling. These insights are crucial for developing net-zero strategies tailored to each country and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 for the pulp and paper industry.

The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments

The energy products of oil and gas majors have contributed significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and planetary warming over the past century. Decarbonizing the global economy by mid-century to avoid dangerous climate change thus cannot occur without a profound transformation of their fossil fuel-based business models. Recently, several majors are increasingly discussing clean energy and climate change, pledging decarbonization strategies, and investing in alternative energies. Some even claim to be transforming into clean energy companies. Given a history of obstructive climate actions and "greenwashing", there is a need to objectively evaluate current and historical decarbonization efforts and investment behavior. This study focuses on two American (Chevron, ExxonMobil) and two European majors (BP, Shell). Using data collected over 2009-2020, we comparatively examine the extent of decarbonization and clean energy transition activity from three perspectives: (1) keyword use in annual reports (discourse); (2) business strategies (pledges and actions); and (3) production, expenditures and earnings for fossil fuels along with investments in clean energy (investments). We found a strong increase in discourse related to "climate", "low-carbon" and "transition", especially by BP and Shell. Similarly, we observed increasing tendencies toward strategies related to decarbonization and clean energy. But these are dominated by pledges rather than concrete actions. Moreover, the financial analysis reveals a continuing business model dependence on fossil fuels along with insignificant and opaque spending on clean energy. We thus conclude that the transition to clean energy business models is not occurring, since the magnitude of investments and actions does not match discourse. Until actions and investment behavior are brought into alignment with discourse, accusations of greenwashing appear well-founded.

Dynamic evolution analysis of the factors driving the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An input-output analysis

In recent years, the global greenhouse effect caused by excessive energy-related carbon emissions has attracted more and more attention. In this paper, we studied the dynamic evolution of factors driving China's energy-related CO2 emissions growth from 2007 to 2015 by using energy consumption method and input-output analysis and used the IO-SDA model to decompose the energy carbon emissions. Within the research interval, the results showed that (1) on the energy supply-side, the high carbon energy represented by raw coal was still the main factor to promote the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions. However, the optimization of energy consumption structure is conducive to reducing emissions. Specifically, the high carbon energy represented by raw coal exhibited a downward trend in promoting the increment of energy-related CO2 emissions, while the clean energy represented by natural gas showed an upward trend in promoting the increment of CO2 emissions. It is worth noting that there is still a lot of room for optimization of China's energy consumption structure to reduce emissions. (2) On the energy demand-side, the final demand effect is the main driving force of the growth of carbon emissions from fossil energy. Among them, the secondary industry plays a major role in the final demand effect. The "high carbonization" of the final product reflects the characteristics of China's high energy input in the process of industrialization. At the same time, since the carbon emission efficiency of the tertiary industry and the primary industry is better than that of the secondary industry, actively optimizing the industrial structure is conducive to slowing down the growth of carbon emission brought by the demand effect. (3) The input structure effect is the main restraining factor for the growth of energy carbon emissions, while the energy intensity effect has a slight driving effect on the growth of energy carbon emissions. The results show that China's "extensive" economic growth model has been effectively reversed, but the optimization of fossil energy utilization efficiency is still not obvious, and there is still a large space to curb carbon emissions by improving fossil energy utilization efficiency in the future.

Net reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from feed additive use in California dairy cattle

The livestock industry is one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and there is an increasing demand for the industry to reduce its carbon footprint. Several studies have shown that feed additives 3-nitroxypropanol and nitrate to be effective in reducing enteric methane emissions. The objective of this study was to estimate the net mitigating effect of using 3-nitroxypropanol and nitrate on total greenhouse gas emissions in California dairy industry. A life cycle assessment approach was used to conduct a cradle-to-farm gate environmental impact analysis based on dairy production system in California. Emissions associated with crop production, feed additive production, enteric methane, farm management, and manure storage were calculated and expressed as kg CO2 equivalents (CO2e) per kg of energy corrected milk. The total greenhouse gas emissions from baseline, 3-nitroxypropanol and nitrate offered during lactation were 1.12, 0.993, and 1.08 kg CO2e/kg energy corrected milk, respectively. The average net reduction rates for 3-nitroxypropanol and nitrate were 11.7% and 3.95%, respectively. In both cases, using the feed additives on the whole herd slightly improved overall carbon footprint reduction compared to limiting its use during lactation phase. Although both 3-nitroxypropanol and nitrate had effects on decreasing the total greenhouse gas emission, the former was much more effective with no known safety issues in reducing the carbon footprint of dairy production in California.

Climate Change: A Review of a Public Health Opportunity for the Northeast

[Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2019-02.asp].

Impact of military on biofuels consumption and GHG emissions: the evidence from G7 countries

It was aimed to test the relation among the greenhouse gases emissions, economic growth, biofuels consumption, and militarization in G7 countries during the 1985-2015 period by Pedroni 1995 and panel Johansen tests and two long-run estimators-dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS. Long-run estimators found that economic growth and militarization have statistically significant positive impact on CO₂ emission of G7 countries. Furthermore, the panel causality tests were applied: Dumitrescu and Hurlin (Econ Model 29(4):1450-1460, 2012) and panel Granger causality. These tests determined the causal relationship between the variables. The results of this paper implied that economic growth and biofuels consumption depend on militarization, and economic growth and militarization are granger causes of the greenhouse gases emissions.

The Impacts of Regulations and Financial Development on the Operations of Supply Chains with Greenhouse Gas Emissions

To establish a micro foundation to understand the impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and financial development levels on firms’ GHG emissions, we build a two-stage dynamic game model to incorporate GHG emission regulations (in terms of an emission tax) and financial development (represented by the corresponding financing cost) into a two-echelon supply chain. With the subgame perfect equilibrium, we identify the conditions to determine whether an emission regulatory policy and/or financial development can affect GHG emissions in the supply chain. We also reveal the impacts of the strictness of GHG emission regulation, the financial development level, and the unit GHG emission rate on the operations of the supply chain and the corresponding profitability implications. Managerial insights are also discussed.

Carbon and water footprint of pork supply chain in Catalonia: From feed to final products

A systematic tool to assess the Carbon Footprint (CF) and Water Footprint (WF) of pork production companies was developed and applied to representative Catalan companies. To do so, a cradle-to-gate environmental assessment was carried out by means of the LCA methodology, taking into account all the stages involved in the pork chain, from feed production to the processing of final products, ready for distribution. In this approach, the environmental results are reported based on eight different functional units (FUs) according to the main pork products obtained. With the aim of ensuring the reliability of the results and facilitating the comparison with other available reports, the Product Category Rules (PCR) for Catalan pork sector were also defined as a basis for calculations. The characterization results show fodder production as the main contributor to the global environmental burdens, with contributions higher than 76% regardless the environmental indicator or the life cycle stage considered, which is in agreement with other published data. In contrast, the results in terms of CF and WF lay above the range of values reported elsewhere. However, major discrepancies are mainly due to the differences in the co-products allocation criteria. In this sense, economic/physical allocation and/or system expansion have been mostly considered in literature. In contrast, no allocation was considered appropriate in this study, according to the characteristics of the industries and products under assessment; thus, the major impacts fall on the main product, which derives on comparatively higher environmental burdens. Finally, due to the relevance of fodder production in the overall impact assessment results, strategies to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions as well as water use associated to this stage were proposed in the pork supply chain.

Diet-related greenhouse gas emissions assessed by a food frequency questionnaire and validated using 7-day weighed food records

BACKGROUND

The current food system generates about 25 % of total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), including deforestation, and thereby substantially contributes to the warming of the earth's surface. To understand the association between food and nutrient intake and GHGE, we therefore need valid methods to assess diet-related GHGE in observational studies.

METHODS

Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies assess the environmental impact of different food items. We linked LCA data expressed as kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per kg food product to data on food intake assessed by the food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) Meal-Q and validated it against a 7-day weighed food record (WFR). 166 male and female volunteers aged 20-63 years completed Meal-Q and the WFR, and their food intake was linked to LCA data.

RESULTS

The mean GHGE assessed with Meal-Q was 3.76 kg CO2e per day and person, whereas it was 5.04 kg CO2e using the WFR. The energy-adjusted and deattenuated Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. Moreover, compared to the WFR, Meal-Q provided a good ranking ability, with 90 % of the participants classified into the same or adjacent quartile according to their daily average CO2e. The Bland-Altman plot showed an acceptable level of agreement between the two methods and the reproducibility of Meal-Q was high.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study validating the assessment of diet-related GHGE by a questionnaire. The results suggest that Meal-Q is a useful tool for studying the link between food habits and CO2e in future epidemiological studies.

Greenhouse gas emissions and stocks of soil carbon and nitrogen from a 20-year fertilised wheat-maize intercropping system: A model approach

Accurate modelling of agricultural management impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and the cycling of carbon and nitrogen is complicated due to interactions between various processes and the disturbance caused by field management. In this study, a process-based model, the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum System (SPACSYS), was used to simulate the effects of different fertilisation regimes on crop yields, the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (SN) stocks from 1990 to 2010, and soil CO2 (2007-2010) and N2O (2007-2008) emissions based on a long-term fertilisation experiment with a winter-wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) and summer-maize (Zea mays L.) intercropping system in Eutric Cambisol (FAO) soil in southern China. Three fertilisation treatments were 1) unfertilised (Control), 2) chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), and 3) NPK plus pig manure (NPKM). Statistical analyses indicated that the SPACSYS model can reasonably simulate the yields of wheat and maize, the evolution of SOC and SN stocks and soil CO2 and N2O emissions. The simulations showed that the NPKM treatment had the highest values of crop yields, SOC and SN stocks, and soil CO2 and N2O emissions were the lowest from the Control treatment. Furthermore, the simulated results showed that manure amendment along with chemical fertiliser applications led to both C (1017 ± 470 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) and N gains (91.7 ± 15.1 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) in the plant-soil system, while the Control treatment caused a slight loss in C and N. In conclusion, the SPACSYS model can accurately simulate the processes of C and N as affected by various fertilisation treatments in the red soil. Furthermore, application of chemical fertilisers plus manure could be a suitable management for ensuring crop yield and sustaining soil fertility in the red soil region, but the ratio of chemical fertilisers to manure should be optimized to reduce C and N losses to the environment.

European trends in greenhouse gases emissions from integrated solid waste management

The European Union (EU) has 28 member states, each with very different characteristics (e.g. surface, population density, per capita gross domestic product, per capita municipal solid waste (MSW) production, MSW composition, MSW management options). In this paper several integrated waste management scenarios representative of the European situation have been generated and analysed in order to evaluate possible trends in the net emission of greenhouse gases and in the required landfill volume. The results demonstrate that an integrated system with a high level of separate collection, efficient energy recovery in waste-to-energy plants and very limited landfill disposal is the most effective according to the indices adopted. Moreover, it is evident that a fully integrated system can make MSW management a carbon sink with a potentiality of up to approximately 40 Mt CO2eq year(-1).

Greenhouse gas emissions from the enteric fermentation and manure storage of dairy and beef cattle in China during 1961-2010

Due to the expanding dairy and beef population in China and their contribution to global CH4 and N2O budgets, a framework considering changes in feed, manure management and herd structure was established to indicate the trends of CH4 and N2O emissions from the enteric formation and manure storage in China׳s beef and dairy production and the underlying driving forces during the period 1961-2010. From 1961 to 2010, annual CH4 and N2O emissions from beef cattle in China increased from 2.18Mt to 5.86Mt and from 7.93kt-29.56kt, respectively, while those from dairy cattle increased from 0.023 to 1.09Mt and 0.12 to 7.90kt, respectively. These increases were attributed to the combined changes in cattle population and management practices in feeds and manure storage. Improvement in cattle genetics during the period increased the bodyweight, required dry matter intake and gross energy and thus resulted in increased enteric CH4 EFs for each category of beef and dairy cattle as well as the overall enteric EFs (i.e., Tier 1 in IPCC). However, for beef cattle, such an impact on the overall enteric EFs was largely offset by the herd structure transition from draft animal-oriented to meat animal-oriented during 1961-2010. Although the CO2-eq of CH4 and N2O from manure storage was less than the enteric emissions during 1961-2010 in China, it tended to increase both in beef and dairy cattle, which was mainly driven by the changes in manure management practices.

Greenhouse gas fluxes from agricultural soils under organic and non-organic management--a global meta-analysis

It is anticipated that organic farming systems provide benefits concerning soil conservation and climate protection. A literature search on measured soil-derived greenhouse gas (GHG) (nitrous oxide and methane) fluxes under organic and non-organic management from farming system comparisons was conducted and followed by a meta-analysis. Up to date only 19 studies based on field measurements could be retrieved. Based on 12 studies that cover annual measurements, it appeared with a high significance that area-scaled nitrous oxide emissions from organically managed soils are 492 ± 160 kg CO2 eq. ha(-1) a(-1) lower than from non-organically managed soils. For arable soils the difference amounts to 497 ± 162 kg CO2 eq. ha(-1) a(-1). However, yield-scaled nitrous oxide emissions are higher by 41 ± 34 kg CO2 eq. t(-1) DM under organic management (arable and use). To equalize this mean difference in yield-scaled nitrous oxide emissions between both farming systems, the yield gap has to be less than 17%. Emissions from conventionally managed soils seemed to be influenced mainly by total N inputs, whereas for organically managed soils other variables such as soil characteristics seemed to be more important. This can be explained by the higher bioavailability of the synthetic N fertilisers in non-organic farming systems while the necessary mineralisation of the N sources under organic management leads to lower and retarded availability. Furthermore, a higher methane uptake of 3.2 ± 2.5 kg CO2 eq. ha(-1) a(-1) for arable soils under organic management can be observed. Only one comparative study on rice paddies has been published up to date. All 19 retrieved studies were conducted in the Northern hemisphere under temperate climate. Further GHG flux measurements in farming system comparisons are required to confirm the results and close the existing knowledge gaps.

Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties

Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.

Anaerobic digestion of different feedstocks: impact on energetic and environmental balances of biogas process

The possibility of limiting the global warming is strictly linked to the reduction of GHG emissions. Renewable energy both allows reducing emissions and permits to delay fossil fuel depletion. The anaerobic digestion of animal manure and energy crops is a promising way of reducing GHG emissions. In Italy agricultural biogas production was considerably increased; nowadays there are about 520 agricultural biogas plants. The increasing number of biogas plants, especially of those larger than 500 kW(e) (electrical power), involves a high consumption of energy crops, large transport distances of biomass and digestate and difficulties on thermal energy valorization. In this study the energetic (CED) and environmental (GHG emissions) profiles associated with the production of electricity derived from biogas have been identified. Three biogas plants located in Northern Italy have been analyzed. The study has been carried out considering a cradle-to-grave perspective and thus, special attention has been paid on the feedstock production and biogas production process. The influences on the results taking into account different plant sizes and feeding rate has been assessed in detail. Energy analysis was performed using the Cumulative Energy Demand method (CED). The climate change was calculated for a 100-year time frame based on GHG emissions indicated as CO2 equivalents (eq) and defined by the IPCC (2006). In comparison to the fossil reference system, the electricity production using biogas saves GHG emissions from 0.188 to 1.193 kg CO2eq per kWh(e). Electricity supply from biogas can also contribute to a considerable reduction of the use of fossil energy carriers (from -3.97 to 10.08 MJ(fossil) per kWh(e)). The electricity production from biogas has a big potential for energy savings and reduction of GHG emissions. Efficient utilization of the cogenerated heat can substantially improve the GHG balance of electricity production from biogas.

Bioenergy as a biodiversity management tool and the potential of a mixed species feedstock for bioenergy production in Wales

A cutting management regime maintains high levels of biodiversity in semi-natural habitats across Europe. We utilise three years of annual yield data from Welsh semi-natural areas to calculate the mean feedstock production from cutting management to be 1.05×10(6) t DM annum(-1). Using formulae based upon Fischer Tropsch (FT) fuel process models, we predict that 2.12×10(5) t of FT fuel annum(-1) could be produced. That represents 38% of the Welsh transport sector's green house gas (GHG) reduction target for 2020. Alternatively, predictive formulae reveal that methane yields from anaerobic digestion of the feedstock could reduce GHG emissions by 11% of the domestic sector's reduction target for 2020. Electricity generation from methane is also explored. The results presented encourage further investigation into the contribution of this resource to sustainable domestic energy supply. Furthermore, the proposed system would potentially protect a broad range of ecosystem services and maintain biodiversity.

Unintended consequences of bioethanol feedstock choice in China

Economic, energy, and environmental impacts of 11 types of bioethanol feedstock in China were evaluated using a mixed-unit input-output life cycle assessment model. Corn grain and wheat grain had higher negative economic, energy, and environmental impacts. Sweet sorghum, cassava, sugar beet, and sugarcane showed better economic performance but increasing negative energy and environmental impacts. Cellulose-based feedstocks in general showed positive economic, energy, and environmental performance; but may lead to increasing negative impacts on freshwater use, global warming, toxicity, and aquatic ecotoxicity. Sugarcane-based bioethanol had the potential to provide positive economic, energy, and environmental impacts in China. Scrap paper-derived ethanol could also become promising under significant government support.

Life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from dairy production in Eastern Canada: a case study

The objective of this study was to conduct a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a typical nongrazing dairy production system in Eastern Canada. Additionally, as dairying generates both milk and meat, this study assessed several methods of allocating emissions between these coproducts. An LCA was carried out for a simulated farm based on a typical nongrazing dairy production system in Quebec. The LCA was conducted over 6 yr, the typical lifespan of dairy cows in this province. The assessment considered 65 female Holstein calves, of which 60 heifers survived to first calving at 27 mo of age. These animals were subsequently retained for an average of 2.75 lactations. Progeny were also included in the analysis, with bulls and heifers in excess of replacement requirements finished as grain-fed veal (270 kg) at 6.5 mo of age. All cattle were housed indoors and fed forages and grains produced on the same farm. Pre-farm gate GHG emissions and removals were quantified using Holos, a whole-farm software model developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Tier 2 and 3methodologies with modifications for Canadian conditions. The LCA yielded a GHG intensity of 0.92 kg of CO(2) Eq/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk yield. Methane (CH(4)) accounted for 56% of total emissions, with 86% originating from enteric fermentation. Nitrous oxide accounted for 40% of total GHG emissions. Lactating cows contributed 64% of total GHG emissions, whereas calves under 12 mo contributed 10% and veal calves only 3%. Allocation of GHG emissions between meat and milk were assessed as (1) 100% allocation to milk, (2) economics, (3) dairy versus veal animals, and (4) International Dairy Federation equation using feed energy demand for meat and milk production. Comparing emissions from dairy versus veal calves resulted in 97% of the emissions allocated to milk. The lowest allocation of emissions to milk (78%) was associated with the International Dairy Federation equation. This LCA showed that greatest reductions in GHG emissions would be achieved by applying mitigation strategies to reduce enteric CH(4) from the lactating cow, with minimal reductions being achievable in young stock. Choice of coproduct allocation method can also significantly affect the relative allocation of GHG emissions to milk and meat.

A new estimation of global soil greenhouse gas fluxes using a simple data-oriented model

Soil greenhouse gas fluxes (particularly CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) play important roles in climate change. However, despite the importance of these soil greenhouse gases, the number of reports on global soil greenhouse gas fluxes is limited. Here, new estimates are presented for global soil CO(2) emission (total soil respiration), CH(4) uptake, and N(2)O emission fluxes, using a simple data-oriented model. The estimated global fluxes for CO(2) emission, CH(4) uptake, and N(2)O emission were 78 Pg C yr(-1) (Monte Carlo 95% confidence interval, 64-95 Pg C yr(-1)), 18 Tg C yr(-1) (11-23 Tg C yr(-1)), and 4.4 Tg N yr(-1) (1.4-11.1 Tg N yr(-1)), respectively. Tropical regions were the largest contributor of all of the gases, particularly the CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes. The soil CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes had more pronounced seasonal patterns than the soil CH(4) flux. The collected estimates, including both the previous and the present estimates, demonstrate that the means of the best estimates from each study were 79 Pg C yr(-1) (291 Pg CO(2) yr(-1); coefficient of variation, CV = 13%, N = 6) for CO(2), 21 Tg C yr(-1) (29 Tg CH(4) yr(-1); CV = 24%, N = 24) for CH(4), and 7.8 Tg N yr(-1) (12.2 Tg N(2)O yr(-1); CV = 38%, N = 11) for N(2)O. For N(2)O, the mean of the estimates that was calculated by excluding the earliest two estimates was 6.6 Tg N yr(-1) (10.4 Tg N(2)O yr(-1); CV = 22%, N = 9). The reported estimates vary and have large degrees of uncertainty but their overall magnitudes are in general agreement. To further minimize the uncertainty of soil greenhouse gas flux estimates, it is necessary to build global databases and identify key processes in describing global soil greenhouse gas fluxes.

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.

A methodology for estimating health benefits of electricity generation using renewable technologies

At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100 bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population. This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers. In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem.

Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea

BACKGROUND

Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase.

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century.

METHODS

We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed.

RESULTS

The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099.

CONCLUSIONS

Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.

Nitrous oxide emissions from the gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone

The production of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), a potent greenhouse gas, in hypoxic coastal zones remains poorly characterized due to a lack of data, though large nitrogen inputs and deoxygenation typical of these systems create the potential for large N(2)O emissions. We report the first N(2)O emission measurements from the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone (GOMHZ), including an estimate of the emission "pulse" associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Edouard in August, 2008. Prestorm emission rates (25-287 nmol m(-2) hr(-1)) and dissolved N(2)O concentrations (5 - 30 nmol L(-1)) were higher than values reported for the Caribbean and western Tropical Atlantic, and on the lower end of the range of observations from deeper coastal hypoxic zones. During the storm, N(2)O rich subsurface water was mixed upward, increasing average surface concentrations and emission rates by 23% and 61%, respectively. Approximately 20% of the N(2)O within the water column vented to the atmosphere during the storm, equivalent to 13% of the total "hypoxia season" emission. Relationships between N(2)O, NO(3)(-), and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) suggest enhanced post storm N(2)O production, most likely in response to reoxygenation of the water column and redistribution of organic nitrogen. Our results indicate that mixing related emissions contribute significantly to total seasonal emissions and must therefore be included in emission models and inventories for the GOMHZ and other shallow coastal hypoxic zones.

Cambio climático y salud pública: escenarios después de la entrada en vigor del Protocolo de Kioto

According to the reports of the intergovernmental panel for climatic change (IPCC) human beings of the present and near future are going to experiment, in fact we are already experimenting, important changes in the world climate. Conscious of the magnitude of the problem, international organizations have taken a series of initiatives headed to stop the climatic change and to reduce its impact. This willingness has been shaped into the agreements established in the Kyoto protocol, where countries commit to reduce greenhouse-effect gas emissions. Kyoto protocol has come into force on February 16th 2005 with the support of 141 signing countries. Among the major worries are the effects which climatic change may have upon health, such as: 1) changes in the morbidity- mortality related to temperature; 2) Effects on health related with extreme meteorological events (tornados, storms, hurricanes and extreme raining); 3) Air pollution and increase of associated health effects; d) Diseases transmitted by food and water and 4) Infectious diseases transmitted by vectors and by rodents. Even if all the countries in the world committed to the Kyoto Protocol, some consequences of the climatic change will be inevitable; among them some will have a negative impact on health. It would be necessary to adapt a key response strategy to minimize the impacts of climatic change and to reduce, at minimum cost, its adverse effects on health. From the Public Health position, a relevant role can and must be played concerning the understanding of the risks for health of such climatic changes, the design of surveillance systems to evaluate possible impacts, and the establishment of systems to prevent or reduce damages as well as the identification and development of investigation needs.