An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 in the United States

COVID-19 led to a recent high-profile proposal to reintroduce oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in the United States (U.S.), initially in clinical trials, but potentially for widespread and repeated use. We explore logistical challenges related to U.S. OPV administration in 2020, review the literature related to nonspecific effects of OPV to induce innate immunity, and model the health and economic implications of the proposal. The costs of reintroducing a single OPV dose to 331 million Americans would exceed $4.4 billion. Giving a dose of bivalent OPV to the entire U.S. population would lead to an expected 40 identifiable cases of vaccine-associated paralytic polio, with young Americans at the highest risk. Reintroducing any OPV use in the U.S. poses a risk of restarting transmission of OPV-related viruses and could lead to new infections in immunocompromised individuals with B-cell related primary immunodeficiencies that could lead to later cases of paralysis. Due to the lack of a currently licensed OPV in the U.S., the decision to administer OPV to Americans for nonspecific immunological effects would require purchasing limited global OPV supplies that could impact polio eradication efforts. Health economic modeling suggests no role for reintroducing OPV into the U.S. with respect to responding to COVID-19. Countries that currently use OPV experience fundamentally different risks, costs, and benefits than the U.S. Successful global polio eradication will depend on sufficient OPV supplies, achieving and maintaining high OPV coverage in OPV-using countries, and effective global OPV cessation and containment in all countries, including the U.S.

Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines

Countries face different poliovirus risks, which imply different benefits associated with continued and future use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). With the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) continuing to extend its timeline for ending the transmission of all wild polioviruses and to introduce new poliovirus vaccines, the polio vaccine supply chain continues to expand in complexity. The increased complexity leads to significant uncertainty about supply and costs. Notably, the strategy of phased OPV cessation of all three serotypes to stop all future incidence of poliomyelitis depends on successfully stopping the transmission of all wild polioviruses. Countries also face challenges associated with responding to any outbreaks that occur after OPV cessation, because stopping transmission of such outbreaks requires reintroducing the use of the stopped OPV in most countries. National immunization program leaders will likely consider differences in their risks and willingness-to-pay for risk reduction as they evaluate their investments in current and future polio vaccination. Information about the costs and benefits of future poliovirus vaccines, and discussion of the complex situation that currently exists, should prove useful to national, regional, and global decisionmakers and support health economic modeling. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with increasing costs of poliovirus vaccines continue to increase financial risks for the GPEI.

Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029

The polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunization in all countries substantially increased the expected costs of the polio endgame, without substantially increasing its expected health or economic benefits. Adding a second dose of IPV to the routine immunization schedules of countries that currently include a single IPV dose further increases costs and does not appear economically justified in the reference case that does not stop WPV transmission. For the reference case that includes all WPV eradication, adding a second IPV dose at the time of successful oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation represents a cost-effective option. The risks and costs of needing to restart OPV use change the economics of the polio endgame, although the time horizon used for modeling impacts the overall economic results. National health leaders will want to consider the expected health and economic net benefits of their national polio vaccine strategies recognizing that preferred strategies may differ.

Valuing the cost of improving Chilean primary vaccination: a cost minimization analysis of a hexavalent vaccine

BACKGROUND

The phased withdrawal of oral polio vaccine (OPV) and the introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is central to the polio 'end-game' strategy.

METHODS

We analyzed the cost implications in Chile of a switch from the vaccination scheme consisting of a pentavalent vaccine with whole-cell pertussis component (wP) plus IPV/OPV vaccines to a scheme with a hexavalent vaccine with acellular pertussis component (aP) and IPV (Hexaxim®) from a societal perspective. Cost data were collected from a variety of sources including national estimates and previous vaccine studies. All costs were expressed in 2017 prices (US$ 1.00 = $Ch 666.26).

RESULTS

The overall costs associated with the vaccination scheme (4 doses of pentavalent vaccine plus 1 dose IPV and 3 doses OPV) from a societal perspective was estimated to be US$ 12.70 million, of which US$ 8.84 million were associated with the management of adverse events related to wP. In comparison, the cost associated with the 4-dose scheme with a hexavalent vaccine (based upon the PAHO reference price) was US$ 19.76 million. The cost of switching to the hexavalent vaccine would be an additional US$ 6.45 million. Overall, depending on the scenario, the costs of switching to the hexavalent scheme would range from an additional US$ 2.62 million to US$ 6.45 million compared with the current vaccination scheme.

CONCLUSIONS

The switch to the hexavalent vaccine schedule in Chile would lead to additional acquisition costs, which would be partially offset by improved logistics, and a reduction in adverse events associated with the current vaccines.

An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052

BACKGROUND

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-term poliovirus risk management policies.

METHODS

We used an integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to simulate possible futures and estimate the health and economic outcomes of maintaining the 2013 status quo of continued OPV use in most developing countries compared with OPV cessation policies with various assumptions about global inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) adoption.

RESULTS

Continued OPV use after global WPV eradication leads to continued high costs and/or high cases. Global OPV cessation comes with a high probability of at least one outbreak, which aggressive outbreak response can successfully control in most instances. A low but non-zero probability exists of uncontrolled outbreaks following a poliovirus reintroduction long after OPV cessation in a population in which IPV-alone cannot prevent poliovirus transmission. We estimate global incremental net benefits during 2013-2052 of approximately $16 billion (US$2013) for OPV cessation with at least one IPV routine immunization dose in all countries until 2024 compared to continued OPV use, although significant uncertainty remains associated with the frequency of exportations between populations and the implementation of long term risk management policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Global OPV cessation offers the possibility of large future health and economic benefits compared to continued OPV use. Long-term poliovirus risk management interventions matter (e.g., IPV use duration, outbreak response, containment, continued surveillance, stockpile size and contents, vaccine production site requirements, potential antiviral drugs, and potential safer vaccines) and require careful consideration. Risk management activities can help to ensure a low risk of uncontrolled outbreaks and preserve or further increase the positive net benefits of OPV cessation. Important uncertainties will require more research, including characterizing immunodeficient long-term poliovirus excretor risks, containment risks, and the kinetics of outbreaks and response in an unprecedented world without widespread live poliovirus exposure.

The costs of future polio risk management policies

Decisionmakers need information about the anticipated future costs of maintaining polio eradication as a function of the policy options under consideration. Given the large portfolio of options, we reviewed and synthesized the existing cost data relevant to current policies to provide context for future policies. We model the expected future costs of different strategies for continued vaccination, surveillance, and other costs that require significant potential resource commitments. We estimate the costs of different potential policy portfolios for low-, middle-, and high-income countries to demonstrate the variability in these costs. We estimate that a global transition from routine immunization with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) would increase the costs of managing polio globally, although routine IPV use remains less costly than routine OPV use with supplemental immunization activities. The costs of surveillance and a stockpile, while small compared to routine vaccination costs, represent important expenditures to ensure adequate response to potential outbreaks. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses highlight important uncertainty in the aggregated costs and demonstrates that the discount rate and uncertainty in price and administration cost of IPV drives the expected incremental cost of routine IPV vs. OPV immunization.

The cost-effectiveness of alternative polio immunization policies in South Africa

AIMS

To assess the cost-effectiveness of switching from oral polio vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), or to cease polio vaccination in routine immunization services in South Africa at the time of OPV cessation globally following polio eradication.

METHODS

The cost-effectiveness of nine different polio immunization alternatives were evaluated. The costs of introducing IPV in a separate vial as well as in different combination vaccines were estimated, and IPV schedules with 2, 3 and 4 doses were compared with the current 6-dose OPV schedule. Assumptions about IPV prices were based on indications from vaccine manufacturers. The health impact of OPV cessation was measured in terms of vaccine associated paralytic paralysis (VAPP) cases and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of OPV in routine immunization services is predicted to result in 2.96 VAPP cases in the 2005 cohort. The cost-effectiveness of the different IPV alternatives varies between US$ 740,000 and US$ 7.2 million per VAPP case averted. The costs per discounted DALY averted amount to between US$ 61,000 and US$ 594,000. Among the IPV strategies evaluated, the 2-dose schedule in a 10-dose vial is the most cost-effective option. At the assumed vaccine prices, all IPV options do not appear to be cost-effective in the South African situation. OPV cessation without IPV replacement would result in cost savings of US$ 1.6 million per year compared to the current situation. This is approximately a 9% decrease in the budget for vaccine delivery in South Africa. However, with this option there is a risk (albeit small) of vaccine-derived poliovirus circulating in a progressively susceptible population. For IPV in a single dose vial, the break-even price, at which the costs of IPV delivery equal the current OPV delivery costs, is US$ 0.39.

Polio immunization policy in Mexico: economic assessment of current practice and future alternatives

The World Health Organization recommends that all children aged less than 5 years should be vaccinated against polio through intensive immunization programmes as well as routine immunization. A national immunization week (NIW) was held in February 2002 in the Monterrey district of Mexico. A prospective micro-costing study was conducted to measure the total cost to the state of the NIW, the cost profile, and the ratio of cost per immunization contact to cost per dose of oral polio vaccine (OPV), and to compare OPV and inactive polio vaccine (IPV) in economic terms. Two scenarios were used as the basis for calculation. The cost of volunteers was excluded from the "lower-cost scenario" and included in the "upper-cost scenario". The total cost of the NIW was USD 100,454 for the lower-cost scenario and USD 156,614 for the upper-cost scenario. The major part of the costs was personnel costs (67.30 and 77.53% of the total costs in the lower- and upper-cost scenario, respectively). The ratio of cost per immunization contact to cost per dose of OPV was 6.45 for the lower-cost scenario and 10.05 for the upper-cost scenario. Changing from the current OPV-based intensive and routine schedule to a sequential IPV-OPV routine schedule would save USD 14.52 per vaccinated child, and changing to a full IPV routine schedule would save USD 9.41 per vaccinated child.

[Vaccination strategies for the global eradication of poliomyelitis]

The world-wide initiative to eradicate poliomyelitis has been remarkably successful since its launch in 1988. According to the WHO, the last wild virus should be isolated in 2005, thus paving the way for the certification of a world free of poliomyelitis in 2008. Discontinuation of poliomyelitis vaccination which constituted the ultimate objective of this campaign has been jeopardised by two recent developments: the characterisation of vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV), either circulating or excreted by immunodepressed patients, and renewed concern about the risk of bioterrorism. The threats posed by VDPV have led WHO to recommend that OPV usage be discontinued as soon as possible after eradication certification. This article examines the consequences of these developments and describes possible vaccination strategies to counter these new circumstances.

Cost analysis of post-polio certification immunization policies

OBJECTIVE

An analysis was conducted to estimate the costs of different potential post-polio certification immunization policies currently under consideration, with the objective of providing this information to policy-makers.

METHODS

We analyzed three global policy options: continued use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV); OPV cessation with optional inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV); and OPV cessation with universal IPV. Assumptions were made on future immunization policy decisions taken by low-, middle-, and high-income countries. We estimated the financial costs of each immunization policy, the number of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) cases, and the global costs of maintaining an outbreak response capacity. The financial costs of each immunization policy were based on estimates of the cost of polio vaccine, its administration, and coverage projections. The costs of maintaining outbreak response capacity include those associated with developing and maintaining a vaccine stockpile in addition to laboratory and epidemiological surveillance. We used the period 2005-20 as the time frame for the analysis.

FINDINGS

OPV cessation with optional IPV, at an estimated cost of US$ 20,412 million, was the least costly option. The global cost of outbreak response capacity was estimated to be US$ 1320 million during 2005-20. The policy option continued use of OPV resulted in the highest number of VAPP cases. OPV cessation with universal IPV had the highest financial costs, but it also had the least number of VAPP cases. Sensitivity analyses showed that global costs were sensitive to assumptions on the cost of the vaccine. Analysis also showed that if the price per dose of IPV was reduced to US$ 0.50 for low-income countries, the cost of OPV cessation with universal IPV would be the same as the costs of continued use of OPV.

CONCLUSION

Projections on the vaccine price per dose and future coverage rates were major drivers of the global costs of post-certification polio immunization. The break-even price of switching to IPV compared with continuing with OPV immunizations is US$ 0.50 per dose of IPV. However, this doses not account for the cost of vaccine-derived poliovirus cases resulting from the continued use of OPV. In addition to financial costs, risk assessments related to the re-emergence of polio will be major determinants of policy decisions.

Strengths and weaknesses of current polio vaccines--a view from industry

Polio eradication is within our grasp and, unless something terribly wrong and unexpected happens, the three types of wild polioviruses will cease to circulate in human populations within the next few years. This achievement will be a result of the rational use of OPV. A momentous global decision--discontinuation of vaccination--will then have to be taken. The most important uncertainty that will weigh upon that decision is whether wild polioviruses can re-emerge after "eradication" defined as "complete interruption of wild polioviruses transmission", has been obtained. It is important to realise that "eradication" does not mean "extinction" in the sense that the dodo is extinct. After eradication, wild polioviruses will still lurk in laboratory specimens and in protected environmental sites (like glaciers) and may even "re-emerge" by back mutation or recombination of Sabin-derived strains that may continue to circulate even after OPV use is discontinued. Theoretically, the risk of re-emergence of wild polioviruses would be lessened if IPV was used for a number of years to immunise all those born after cessation of OPV usage. But the question is "by how much?". Vaccination with IPV will reduce the risk that persistent OPV-derived strains (e.g. in immunodeficient patients) will have the chance to establish permanent transmission after vaccination is totally discontinued. However, the risk of re-emergence will not be changed since this will be determined by the risk of accidental re-introduction. Whether the expense of switching completely from OPV to IPV globally can be justified will depend upon the relative risks of wild poliovirus re-emergence from either OPV-derived sources or other environmental sources including "escape" of virulent seed viruses from IPV production facilities. This balance of probabilities and risks will be very difficult to determine. In any case, it is likely that the decision to upscale IPV production to required levels has already been delayed too long so that polio eradication will be achieved by the use of OPV in developed as well as in less developed countries that cannot afford to use IPV at a high enough vaccine coverage rate to make it safe. Wild poLiovirus transmission has been interrupted with OPV in the Western Hemisphere. There is no reason why this cannot be done in the rest of the world. In industrialized countries that can afford it and where vaccine coverage is sufficient to prevent wild virus circulation, IPV, in combined vaccines, will be increasingly used. Let us hope that politicians in developing countries and zealous ethicists in the developed world will understand why, in the present and foreseeable future circumstances, OPV is better than IPV in the poorer countries and will not demand, in the name of equity in health, a total switch to IPV. For eradication, IPV cannot, and hopefully need not, replace OPV. At this stage it should not.

Impact of the change in polio vaccination schedule on immunization coverage rates: a study in two large health maintenance organizations

OBJECTIVE

In January 1997, one of the most significant changes to United States vaccine policy occurred when polio immunization guidelines changed to recommend a schedule containing inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). There were concerns that parent or physician reluctance to accept IPV into the routine childhood immunization schedule would lead to lowered coverage. We determined whether adoption of an IPV schedule had a negative impact on immunization coverage.

DESIGN

A cohort study of 2 large health maintenance organizations (HMOs), Group Health Cooperative and Kaiser Permanente Northern California, was conducted. For analysis at 12 months of age, children who were born between October 1, 1996, and December 31, 1997, and were commercially insured and covered by Medicaid were continuously enrolled; for analysis at 24 months of age, children who were born between October 1, 1996, and June 30, 1997, and were commercially insured and covered by Medicaid were continuously enrolled. The 3 measures of immunization status at 12 and 24 months of age were up-to-date status, cumulative time spent up-to-date, and the number of missed opportunity visits.

RESULTS

At both HMOs, children who received IPV were as likely to be up to date at 12 months as were children who received oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), whereas at Group Health, children who received IPV were slightly more likely to be up to date at 24 months (relative risk: 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.19). These findings were consistent for children who were covered by Medicaid. At Kaiser Permanente, children who received IPV spent ~3 fewer days up to date in the first year of life, but this difference did not persist at 2 years of age. At Group Health, children who received IPV were no different from those who received OPV in terms of days spent up to date by 1 or 2 years of age. At Group Health, children who received IPV were less likely to have a missed opportunity by 12 months old (odds ratio [OR] 0.46; 95% CI: 0.31, 0.70), but this finding did not persist at 24 months of age. At Kaiser Permanente, children who received IPV were more likely to have a missed opportunity by 12 months (OR 2.06; 95% CI: 1.84, 2.30), and 24 months of age (OR 1.50; 95% CI: 1.36, 1.67).

CONCLUSIONS

The changeover from an all-OPV schedule to one containing IPV had little if any negative impact on vaccine coverage. Use of IPV was associated with a small increase in the likelihood of being up to date at 2 years of age at one of the HMOs and conversely was associated with a small increase in the likelihood of having a missed-opportunity visit in the other HMO.polio, poliomyelitis, vaccination, immunization coverage.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Progress toward poliomyelitis eradication--Africa, 1996

In 1988, the World Health Assembly established a goal of eradicating poliomyelitis worldwide by the year 2000. The four strategies recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for polio eradication are 1) achieving and maintaining high routine vaccination coverage levels among children aged < 1 year with at least three doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV); 2) developing sensitive systems of epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance, including establishing acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance; 3) administering supplementary doses of OPV to all young children (usually those aged < 5 years) during National Immunization Days (NIDs) to rapidly interrupt wild poliovirus transmission; and 4) conducting "mopping-up" vaccination campaigns--localized campaigns targeting high-risk areas where poliovirus transmission is most likely to persist at low levels. Eradicating polio from Africa remains one of the major challenges to global eradication by the target date. This report summarizes progress achieved in 1996 toward polio eradication in Africa with the implementation of supplemental vaccination activities; the reported OPV coverage during the NIDs or Subnational Immunization Days (SNIDs) was > 80% in the target age group in most countries, and the estimated cost was $0.50 per child vaccinated during NIDs.