Factors Influencing Mammographic Density in Asian Women: A Retrospective Cohort Study in the Northeast Region of Peninsular Malaysia

Mammographic density is a significant risk factor for breast cancer. In this study, we identified the risk factors of mammographic density in Asian women and quantified the impact of breast density on the severity of breast cancer. We collected data from Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, a research- and university-based hospital located in Kelantan, Malaysia. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Five significant factors were found to be associated with mammographic density: age (OR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.92, 0.96), number of children (OR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.96), body mass index (OR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.92), menopause status (yes vs. no, OR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.82), and BI-RADS classification (2 vs. 1, OR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.84; 3 vs. 1, OR: 3.25; 95% CI: 1.86, 5.66; 4 vs. 1, OR: 3.75; 95% CI: 1.88, 7.46; 5 vs. 1, OR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.21, 5.02; 6 vs. 1, OR: 2.50; 95% CI: 0.65, 9.56). Similarly, the average predicted probabilities were higher among BI-RADS 3 and 4 classified women. Understanding mammographic density and its influencing factors aids in accurately assessing and screening dense breast women.

Alteration in the Functional Organization of the Default Mode Network Following Closed Non-severe Traumatic Brain Injury

The debilitating effect of traumatic brain injury (TBI) extends years after the initial injury and hampers the recovery process and quality of life. In this study, we explore the functional reorganization of the default mode network (DMN) of those affected with non-severe TBI. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a wide-spectrum disease that has heterogeneous effects on its victims and impacts everyday functioning. The functional disruption of the default mode network (DMN) after TBI has been established, but its link to causal effective connectivity remains to be explored. This study investigated the differences in the DMN between healthy participants and mild and moderate TBI, in terms of functional and effective connectivity using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Nineteen non-severe TBI (mean age 30.84 ± 14.56) and twenty-two healthy (HC; mean age 27.23 ± 6.32) participants were recruited for this study. Resting-state fMRI data were obtained at the subacute phase (mean days 40.63 ± 10.14) and analyzed for functional activation and connectivity, independent component analysis, and effective connectivity within and between the DMN. Neuropsychological tests were also performed to assess the cognitive and memory domains. Compared to the HC, the TBI group exhibited lower activation in the thalamus, as well as significant functional hypoconnectivity between DMN and LN. Within the DMN nodes, decreased activations were detected in the left inferior parietal lobule, precuneus, and right superior frontal gyrus. Altered effective connectivities were also observed in the TBI group and were linked to the diminished activation in the left parietal region and precuneus. With regard to intra-DMN connectivity within the TBI group, positive correlations were found in verbal and visual memory with the language network, while a negative correlation was found in the cognitive domain with the visual network. Our results suggested that aberrant activities and functional connectivities within the DMN and with other RSNs were accompanied by the altered effective connectivities in the TBI group. These alterations were associated with impaired cognitive and memory domains in the TBI group, in particular within the language domain. These findings may provide insight for future TBI observational and interventional research.

Neural alterations in working memory of mild-moderate TBI: An fMRI study in Malaysia

Working memory (WM) encompasses crucial cognitive processes or abilities to retain and manipulate temporary information for immediate execution of complex cognitive tasks in daily functioning such as reasoning and decision-making. The WM of individuals sustaining traumatic brain injury (TBI) was commonly compromised, especially in the domain of WM. The current study investigated the brain responses of WM in a group of participants with mild-moderate TBI compared to their healthy counterparts employing functional magnetic resonance imaging. All consented participants (healthy: n = 26 and TBI: n = 15) performed two variations of the n-back WM task with four load conditions (0-, 1-, 2-, and 3-back). The respective within-group effects showed a right hemisphere-dominance activation and slower reaction in performance for the TBI group. Random-effects analysis revealed activation difference between the two groups in the right occipital lobe in the guided n-back with cues, and in the bilateral occipital lobe, superior parietal region, and cingulate cortices in the n-back without cues. The left middle frontal gyrus was implicated in the load-dependent processing of WM in both groups. Further group analysis identified that the notable activation changes in the frontal gyri and anterior cingulate cortex are according to low and high loads. Though relatively smaller in scale, this study was eminent as it clarified the neural alterations in WM in the mild-moderate TBI group compared to healthy controls. It confirmed the robustness of the phenomenon in TBI with the reproducibility of the results in a heterogeneous non-Western sample.

Modelling COVID-19 Scenarios for the States and Federal Territories of Malaysia

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 disease, which has become pandemic since December 2019. In the recent months, among five countries in the Southeast Asia, Malaysia has the highest per-capita daily new cases and daily new deaths. A mathematical modelling approach using a Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was used to generate data-driven 30-days ahead forecasts for the number of daily cases in the states and federal territories in Malaysia at four consecutive time points between 27 July 2021 and 26 August 2021. Each forecast was produced using SSA prediction model of the current major trend at each time point. The objective is to understand the transition dynamics of COVID-19 in each state by analysing the direction of change of the major trends during the period of study. The states and federal territories in Malaysia were grouped in four categories based on the nature of the transition. Overall, it was found that the COVID-19 spread has progressed unevenly across states and federal territories. Major regions like Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Negeri Sembilan were in Group 3 (fast decrease in infectivity) and Labuan was in Group 4 (possible eradication of infectivity). Other states e.g. Pulau Pinang, Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan and Johor were categorised in Group 1 (very high infectivity levels) with Perak, Kedah, Pahang, Terengganu and Melaka were classified in Group 2 (high infectivity levels). It is also cautioned that SSA provides a promising avenue for forecasting the transition dynamics of COVID-19; however, the reliability of this technique depends on the availability of good quality data.

Family Caregivers' Experiences and Coping Strategies in Managing Stroke Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Exploration Study

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a chronic disease that requires stroke survivors to be supported long-term by their families. This is especially because of the inaccessibility to post-stroke rehabilitation outside hospitals. The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis and the pandemic restrictions in Malaysia are expected to exponentially increase the demand from family caregivers in supporting stroke survivors. Thus, this study aims to explore the burden, experience, and coping mechanism of the family caregivers supporting stroke survivors during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODOLOGY

A phenomenological qualitative study was conducted from November 2020 to June 2021 in Malaysia. A total of 13 respondents were recruited from two public rehabilitation centers in Kota Bharu, Kelantan. In-depth interviews were conducted with the participants. Comprehensive representation of perspectives from the respondents was achieved through purposive sampling. The interviews were conducted in the Kelantanese dialect, recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Three themes on burdens and experiences were identified. They were worsening pre-existing issues, emerging new issues, and fewer burdens and challenges. Two themes on coping strategies were also identified. They were problem-focused engagement and emotion-focused engagement.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the entire system of stroke management. While family caregivers mostly faced the extra burden through different experiences, they also encountered some positive impacts from the pandemic. The integrated healthcare system, especially in the era of digitalization, is an important element to establish the collaborative commitment of multiple stakeholders to compensate burden and sustain the healthcare of stroke survivors during the pandemic.

Article title: Trends and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Dengue Cases in Northeast Malaysia

Objectives

Dengue remains hyperendemic in Malaysia despite extensive vector control activities. With dynamic changes in land use, urbanisation and population movement, periodic updates on dengue transmission patterns are crucial to ensure the implementation of effective control strategies. We sought to assess shifts in the trends and spatial patterns of dengue in Kelantan, a north-eastern state of Malaysia (5°15’N 102°0’E).

Methods

This study incorporated data from the national dengue monitoring system (eDengue system). Confirmed dengue cases registered in Kelantan with disease onset between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018 were included in the study. Yearly changes in dengue incidence were mapped by using ArcGIS. Hotspot analysis was performed using Getis-Ord Gi to track changes in the trends of dengue spatial clustering.

Results

A total of 10 645 dengue cases were recorded in Kelantan between 2016 and 2018, with an average of 10 dengue cases reported daily (standard deviation, 11.02). Areas with persistently high dengue incidence were seen mainly in the coastal region for the 3-year period. However, the hotspots shifted over time with a gradual dispersion of hotspots to their adjacent districts.

Conclusions

A notable shift in the spatial patterns of dengue was observed. We were able to glimpse the shift of dengue from an urban to peri-urban disease with the possible effect of a state-wide population movement that affects dengue transmission.

Hospital Facebook Reviews Analysis Using a Machine Learning Sentiment Analyzer and Quality Classifier

While experts have recognised the significance and necessity of social media integration in healthcare, no systematic method has been devised in Malaysia or Southeast Asia to include social media input into the hospital quality improvement process. The goal of this work is to explain how to develop a machine learning system for classifying Facebook reviews of public hospitals in Malaysia by using service quality (SERVQUAL) dimensions and sentiment analysis. We developed a Machine Learning Quality Classifier (MLQC) based on the SERVQUAL model and a Machine Learning Sentiment Analyzer (MLSA) by manually annotated multiple batches of randomly chosen reviews. Logistic regression (LR), naive Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), and other methods were used to train the classifiers. The performance of each classifier was tested using 5-fold cross validation. For topic classification, the average F1-score was between 0.687 and 0.757 for all models. In a 5-fold cross validation of each SERVQUAL dimension and in sentiment analysis, SVM consistently outperformed other methods. The study demonstrates how to use supervised learning to automatically identify SERVQUAL domains and sentiments from patient experiences on a hospital's Facebook page. Malaysian healthcare providers can gather and assess data on patient care via the use of these content analysis technology to improve hospital quality of care.

Top 100 Most-Cited Publications on Breast Cancer and Machine Learning Research: A Bibliometric Analysis

BACKGROUND

Rapid advancement in computing technology and digital information leads to the possible use of machine learning on breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the research output of the top 100 publications and further identify a research theme of breast cancer and machine-learning studies.

METHODS

Databases of Scopus and Web of Science were used to extract the top 100 publications. These publications were filtered based on the total citation of each paper. Additionally, a bibliometric analysis was applied to the top 100 publications.

RESULTS

The top 100 publications were published between 1993 and 2019. The most productive author was Giger ML, and the top two institutions were the University of Chicago and the National University of Singapore. The most active countries were the USA, Germany and China. Ten clusters were identified as both basic and specialised themes of breast cancer and machine learning.

CONCLUSION

Various countries demonstrated comparable interest in breast cancer and machine-learning research. A few Asian countries, such as China, India and Singapore, were listed in the top 10 countries based on the total citation. Additionally, the use of deep learning and breast imaging data was trending in the past 10 years in the field of breast cancer and machine-learning research.

Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model

Introduction

Dengue, a vector-borne viral illness, shows worldwide widening spatial distribution beyond its point of origination, namely, the tropical belt. The persistent hyperendemicity in Malaysia has resulted in the formation of the dengue early warning system. However, weather variables are yet to be fully utilized for prevention and control activities, particularly in east-coast peninsular Malaysia where limited studies have been conducted. We aim to provide a time-based estimate of possible dengue incidence increase following weather-related changes, thereby highlighting potential dengue outbreaks.

Method

All serologically confirmed dengue patients in Kelantan, a northeastern state in Malaysia, registered in the eDengue system with an onset of disease from January 2016 to December 2018, were included in the study with the exclusion of duplicate entry. Using a generalized additive model, climate data collected from the Kota Bharu weather station (latitude 6°10′N, longitude 102°18′E) was analysed with dengue data.

Result

A cyclical pattern of dengue cases was observed with annual peaks coinciding with the intermonsoon period. Our analysis reveals that maximum temperature, mean temperature, rainfall, and wind speed have a significant nonlinear effect on dengue cases in Kelantan. Our model can explain approximately 8.2% of dengue incidence variabilities.

Conclusion

Weather variables affect nearly 10% of the dengue incidences in Northeast Malaysia, thereby making it a relevant variable to be included in a dengue early warning system. Interventions such as vector control activities targeting the intermonsoon period are recommended.

Primary stroke prevention worldwide: translating evidence into action

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and the third leading cause of disability worldwide and its burden is increasing rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries, many of which are unable to face the challenges it imposes. In this Health Policy paper on primary stroke prevention, we provide an overview of the current situation regarding primary prevention services, estimate the cost of stroke and stroke prevention, and identify deficiencies in existing guidelines and gaps in primary prevention. We also offer a set of pragmatic solutions for implementation of primary stroke prevention, with an emphasis on the role of governments and population-wide strategies, including task-shifting and sharing and health system re-engineering. Implementation of primary stroke prevention involves patients, health professionals, funders, policy makers, implementation partners, and the entire population along the life course.

Patient Satisfaction and Hospital Quality of Care Evaluation in Malaysia Using SERVQUAL and Facebook

Social media sites, dubbed patient online reviews (POR), have been proposed as new methods for assessing patient satisfaction and monitoring quality of care. However, the unstructured nature of POR data derived from social media creates a number of challenges. The objectives of this research were to identify service quality (SERVQUAL) dimensions automatically from hospital Facebook reviews using a machine learning classifier, and to examine their associations with patient dissatisfaction. From January 2017 to December 2019, empirical research was conducted in which POR were gathered from the official Facebook page of Malaysian public hospitals. To find SERVQUAL dimensions in POR, a machine learning topic classification utilising supervised learning was developed, and this study’s objective was established using logistic regression analysis. It was discovered that 73.5% of patients were satisfied with the public hospital service, whereas 26.5% were dissatisfied. SERVQUAL dimensions identified were 13.2% reviews of tangible, 68.9% of reliability, 6.8% of responsiveness, 19.5% of assurance, and 64.3% of empathy. After controlling for hospital variables, all SERVQUAL dimensions except tangible and assurance were shown to be significantly related with patient dissatisfaction (reliability, p < 0.001; responsiveness, p = 0.016; and empathy, p < 0.001). Rural hospitals had a higher probability of patient dissatisfaction (p < 0.001). Therefore, POR, assisted by machine learning technologies, provided a pragmatic and feasible way for capturing patient perceptions of care quality and supplementing conventional patient satisfaction surveys. The findings offer critical information that will assist healthcare authorities in capitalising on POR by monitoring and evaluating the quality of services in real time.

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD): Prevalence and its Spatial Relationship with Vaccine Refusal Cases in Terengganu, Malaysia

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global public health problem with pandemic potential. The progressive increment of HFMD cases in Malaysia needs further investigation to identify the pattern of disease spread, including its proximity to vaccine refusal. We sought to estimate the prevalence of HFMD in Terengganu and determine the spatial relationship between HFMD and vaccine refusal cases. This study employed data from the national electronic communicable disease notification system and vaccine refusal database maintained by the Communicable Disease Control (CDC) Unit and Maternal and Child Health Care (MCH) Unit. Data from all cases recorded in 2016 were provided by the Terengganu State Health Department, Malaysia. The number of HFMD cases for each district was estimated using the points-in-polygons function in R software. The spatial relationship between HFMD cases and vaccine refusal cases was tested using the cross K-function test. A total of 811 HFMD cases was notified in 2016, with the overall prevalence at 80.2 cases per 100,000 population. Among all districts in Terengganu, the prevalence of HFMD ranged from 19.2 to 230.9 cases per 100,000 population, with the cases highly concentrated in three districts: Kuala Terengganu, Marang, and Dungun. There was evidence of a spatial cluster of HFMD cases based on the Nearest Neighbour Index, r = 0.27 (p-value < 0.01). Moreover, the locations of HFMD cases were statistically and closely related to the areas of vaccine refusal cases (cross K test, p-value < 0.010). The prevalence of HFMD from year to year was high. HFMD cases and vaccine refusal cases formed clusters in the districts with a high-density population. The proximity of HFMD cases and vaccine refusal cases in Terengganu warrants further investigation.

GBD 2019 Stroke Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing Patient-Perceived Hospital Service Quality and Sentiment in Malaysian Public Hospitals Using Machine Learning and Facebook Reviews

Social media is emerging as a new avenue for hospitals and patients to solicit input on the quality of care. However, social media data is unstructured and enormous in volume. Moreover, no empirical research on the use of social media data and perceived hospital quality of care based on patient online reviews has been performed in Malaysia. The purpose of this study was to investigate the determinants of positive sentiment expressed in hospital Facebook reviews in Malaysia, as well as the association between hospital accreditation and sentiments expressed in Facebook reviews. From 2017 to 2019, we retrieved comments from 48 official public hospitals’ Facebook pages. We used machine learning to build a sentiment analyzer and service quality (SERVQUAL) classifier that automatically classifies the sentiment and SERVQUAL dimensions. We utilized logistic regression analysis to determine our goals. We evaluated a total of 1852 reviews and our machine learning sentiment analyzer detected 72.1% of positive reviews and 27.9% of negative reviews. We classified 240 reviews as tangible, 1257 reviews as trustworthy, 125 reviews as responsive, 356 reviews as assurance, and 1174 reviews as empathy using our machine learning SERVQUAL classifier. After adjusting for hospital characteristics, all SERVQUAL dimensions except Tangible were associated with positive sentiment. However, no significant relationship between hospital accreditation and online sentiment was discovered. Facebook reviews powered by machine learning algorithms provide valuable, real-time data that may be missed by traditional hospital quality assessments. Additionally, online patient reviews offer a hitherto untapped indication of quality that may benefit all healthcare stakeholders. Our results confirm prior studies and support the use of Facebook reviews as an adjunct method for assessing the quality of hospital services in Malaysia.

The Effectiveness of Stroke Riskometer™ in Improving Stroke Risk Awareness in Malaysia: A Study Protocol of a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Stroke is considered the second leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide. The increasing burden of stroke is strong evidence that currently used primary prevention strategies are not sufficiently effective. The Stroke Riskometer™ application (app) represents a new stroke prevention strategy distinctly different from the conventional high-cardiovascular disease risk approach.

OBJECTIVE

This proposed study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Stroke Riskometer™ app in improving stroke awareness and stroke risk probability amongst the adult population in Malaysia.

METHODS

A non-blinded, parallel-group cluster-randomized controlled trial with a 1:1 allocation ratio will be implemented in Kelantan, Malaysia. Two groups with a sample size of 66 in each group will be recruited. The intervention group will be equipped with the Stroke Riskometer™ app and informational leaflets, while the control group will be provided with standard management, including information leaflets only. The Stroke Riskometer™ app was developed according to the self-management model of chronic diseases based on self-regulation and social cognitive theories. Data collection will be conducted at baseline and on the third week, sixth week, and sixth month follow-up via telephone interview or online questionnaire survey. The primary outcome measure is stroke risk awareness, including the domains of knowledge, perception, and intention to change. The secondary outcome measure is stroke risk probability within 5 and 10 years adjusted to each participant's socio-demographic and/or socio-economic status. An intention-to-treat approach will be used to evaluate these measures. Pearson's χ2 or independent t test will be used to examine differences between the intervention and control groups. The generalized estimating equation and the linear mixed-effects model will be employed to test the overall effectiveness of the intervention.

CONCLUSION

This study will evaluate the effect of Stroke Riskometer™ app on stroke awareness and stroke probability and briefly evaluate participant engagement to a pre-specified trial protocol. The findings from this will inform physicians and public health professionals of the benefit of mobile technology intervention and encourage more active mobile phone-based disease prevention apps.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04529681.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Situational Analysis for COVID-19: Estimating Transmission Dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-Type Model with Neural Network Approach

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies implemented by Malaysian government in the year 2020 using a mathematical model with SIR-neural network approaches. It is observed that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic and, Malaysia had succeeded to flatten the infection curve at the end of the Conditional MCO (CMCO) period. However, the signs of ‘flattening’ with R0 of less than one had been taken as a signal to ease up on some restrictions enforced before. Though the government has made compulsory the use of face masks in public places to control the spread of COVID-19, we observe a contrasting finding from our model with regards to the impacts of wearing mask policies in Malaysia on R0 and the infection curve. Additionally, other events such as the Sabah State Election at the end of third quarter of 2020 has also imposed a dramatic COVID-19 burden on the society and the healthcare systems.

Facebook Reviews as a Supplemental Tool for Hospital Patient Satisfaction and Its Relationship with Hospital Accreditation in Malaysia

Patient satisfaction is one indicator used to assess the impact of accreditation on patient care. However, traditional patient satisfaction surveys have a few disadvantages, and some researchers have suggested that social media be used in their place. Social media usage is gaining popularity in healthcare organizations, but there is still a paucity of data to support it. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between online reviews and hospital patient satisfaction and the relationship between online reviews and hospital accreditation. We used a cross-sectional design with data acquired from the official Facebook pages of 48 Malaysian public hospitals, 25 of which are accredited. We collected all patient comments from Facebook reviews of those hospitals between 2018 and 2019. Spearman’s correlation and logistic regression were used to evaluate the data. There was a significant and moderate correlation between hospital patient satisfaction and online reviews. Patient satisfaction was closely connected to urban location, tertiary hospital, and previous Facebook ratings. However, hospital accreditation was not found to be significantly associated with online reports of patient satisfaction. This groundbreaking study demonstrates how Facebook reviews can assist hospital administrators in monitoring their institutions’ quality of care in real time.

The state of stroke services across the globe: Report of World Stroke Organization-World Health Organization surveys

BACKGROUND

Improving stroke services is critical for reducing the global stroke burden. The World Stroke Organization-World Health Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission on Stroke conducted a survey of the status of stroke services in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries.

METHODS

Using a validated World Stroke Organization comprehensive questionnaire, we collected and compared data on stroke services along four pillars of the stroke quadrangle (surveillance, prevention, acute stroke, and rehabilitation) in 84 countries across World Health Organization regions and economic strata. The World Health Organization also conducted a survey of non-communicable diseases in 194 countries in 2019.

RESULTS

Fewer surveillance activities (including presence of registries, presence of recent risk factors surveys, and participation in research) were reported in low-income countries than high-income countries. The overall global score for prevention was 40.2%. Stroke units were present in 91% of high-income countries in contrast to 18% of low-income countries (p < 0.001). Acute stroke treatments were offered in ∼ 60% of high-income countries compared to 26% of low-income countries (p = 0.009). Compared to high-income countries, LMICs provided less rehabilitation services including in-patient rehabilitation, home assessment, community rehabilitation, education, early hospital discharge program, and presence of rehabilitation protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an urgent need to improve access to stroke units and services globally especially in LMICs. Countries with less stroke services can adapt strategies from those with better services. This could include establishment of a framework for regular monitoring of stroke burden and services, implementation of integrated prevention activities and essential acute stroke care services, and provision of interdisciplinary care for stroke rehabilitation.

Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia

To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one).

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Neurodevelopmental effects of childhood malnutrition: A neuroimaging perspective

Approximately one in five children worldwide suffers from childhood malnutrition and its complications, including increased susceptibility to inflammation and infectious diseases. Due to improved early interventions, most of these children now survive early malnutrition, even in low-resource settings (LRS). However, many continue to exhibit neurodevelopmental deficits, including low IQ, poor school performance, and behavioral problems over their lifetimes. Most studies have relied on neuropsychological tests, school performance, and mental health and behavioral measures. Few studies, in contrast, have assessed brain structure and function, and to date, these have mainly relied on low-cost techniques, including electroencephalography (EEG) and evoked potentials (ERP). The use of more advanced methods of neuroimaging, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), has been limited by cost factors and lack of availability of these technologies in developing countries, where malnutrition is nearly ubiquitous. This report summarizes the current state of knowledge and evidence gaps regarding childhood malnutrition and the study of its impact on neurodevelopment. It may help to inform the development of new strategies to improve the identification, classification, and treatment of neurodevelopmental disabilities in underserved populations at the highest risk for childhood malnutrition.

Malaysia and COVID-19: In Data We Trust

The recent spike of transmissibility of COVID-19 was evident by a large number of COVID-19 cases and apparent quick spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Sabah, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan in Malaysia. The question remains as to what are the main contributory factors for the impending COVID-19 second wave in Malaysia and why the current surveillance system fails to show signs of the impending second — or the third — COVID-19 wave. In public health surveillance, data are the ultimate indicator, and in the era of big data and the Industrial Revolution 4.0, data has become a valuable commodity. The COVID-19 data keeper must fulfil some criteria to ensure COVID-19 data are useful. Researchers are obligated to share their COVID-19 data responsibly. The surveillance for COVID-19 is paramount, and the guidelines such as the one published by the World Health Organization ‘Public health surveillance for COVID-19: interim guidance’ must be referred to. Data must be taken seriously and shared to enable scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists and public health experts fight COVID-19.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Characteristics of paediatric patients with tuberculosis and associated determinants of treatment success in Malaysia using the MyTB version 2.1 database over five years

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) among children remains a significant public health problem in many parts of the world. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics of TB patients and to determine the predictors of treatment success among children in Malaysia.

Methods

Secondary data from MyTB version 2.1, a national database, were analysed using R version 3.6.1. Descriptive analysis and multivariable logistic regression were conducted to identify treatment success and its determinants.

Results

In total, 3630 cases of TB cases were registered among children in Malaysia between 2013 and 2017. The overall treatment success rate was 87.1% in 2013 and plateaued between 90.1 and 91.4% from 2014 to 2017. TB treatment success was positively associated with being a Malaysian citizen (aOR = 3.43; 95% CI = 2.47, 4.75), being a child with BCG scars (aOR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.39, 2.68), and being in the older age group (aOR = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.09). Having HIV co-infection (aOR = 0.31; 95% CI = 0.16, 0.63), undergoing treatment in public hospitals (aOR = 0.38; 95% CI =0.25, 0.58), having chest X-ray findings of advanced lesion (aOR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.33, 0.69), having EPTB (aOR = 0.58; 95% CI = 0.41, 0.82) and having sputum-positive PTB (aOR = 0.58; 95% CI = 0.43, 0.79) were negatively associated with TB treatment success among children.

Conclusions

The overall success rate of treatment among children with TB in Malaysia has achieved the target of 90% since 2014 and remained plateaued until 2017. The socio-demographic characteristics of children, place of treatment, and TB disease profile were associated with the likelihood of TB treatment success among children. The treatment success rate can be increased by strengthening contact tracing activities and promoting early identification targeting the youngest children and non-Malaysian children.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m². In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

GBD 2019 Viewpoint Collaborators. Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborators. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

GBD Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators. Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Previous attempts to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases have focused only on specific disease conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we estimated the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality attributable to chronic respiratory diseases through an analysis of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) by GBD super-region, from 1990 to 2017, stratified by age and sex. Specific diseases analysed included asthma, COPD, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, pneumoconiosis, and other chronic respiratory diseases. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors (smoking, second-hand smoke, ambient particulate matter and ozone pollution, household air pollution from solid fuels, and occupational risks) to chronic respiratory disease-attributable DALYs.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 544·9 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 506·9-584·8) worldwide had a chronic respiratory disease, representing an increase of 39·8% compared with 1990. Chronic respiratory disease prevalence showed wide variability across GBD super-regions, with the highest prevalence among both males and females in high-income regions, and the lowest prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The age-sex-specific prevalence of each chronic respiratory disease in 2017 was also highly variable geographically. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of death in 2017 (7·0% [95% UI 6·8-7·2] of all deaths), behind cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases numbered 3 914 196 (95% UI 3 790 578-4 044 819) in 2017, an increase of 18·0% since 1990, while total DALYs increased by 13·3%. However, when accounting for ageing and population growth, declines were observed in age-standardised prevalence (14·3% decrease), age-standardised death rates (42·6%), and age-standardised DALY rates (38·2%). In males and females, most chronic respiratory disease-attributable deaths and DALYs were due to COPD. In regional analyses, mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases were greatest in south Asia and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, also across both sexes. Notably, although absolute prevalence was lower in south Asia than in most other super-regions, YLLs due to chronic respiratory diseases across the subcontinent were the highest in the world. Death rates due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis were greater than those due to pneumoconiosis in all super-regions. Smoking was the leading risk factor for chronic respiratory disease-related disability across all regions for men. Among women, household air pollution from solid fuels was the predominant risk factor for chronic respiratory diseases in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, while ambient particulate matter represented the leading risk factor in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, and in the Middle East and north Africa super-region.

INTERPRETATION

Our study shows that chronic respiratory diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but sharp declines in several age-standardised estimators since 1990. Premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases seems to be highest in regions with less-resourced health systems on a per-capita basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws.

FINDINGS

While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

LBD Double Burden of Malnutrition Collaborators. Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.

Fine-scale geospatial mapping of overweight and wasting (two components of the double burden of malnutrition) in 105 LMICs shows that overweight has increased from 5.2% in 2000 to 6.0% in children under 5 in 2017. Although overall wasting decreased over the same period, most countries are not on track to meet the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025.

Treatment-Seeking Behavior Among Male Civil Servants in Northeastern Malaysia: A Mixed-Methods Study

Background: Men's health in Malaysia is slowly gaining more attention, but minimal research has examined how Malaysian men behave and seek treatment. While few studies have investigated men's treatment-seeking behavior (TSB), those that have been conducted seem to be inconclusive and tend to yield contradictory findings. Objectives: This paper aims to determine the proportion of inappropriate TSB and to explore in-depth treatment-seeking behavior among male civil servants in northeastern Malaysia. Methods: This paper adopted a mixed-methods approach, specifically a concurrent parallel study design. A quantitative study using a self-administered questionnaire was performed to identify the proportion of appropriate and inappropriate TSB among male civil servants in northeastern Malaysia. Concurrently, a qualitative study was conducted involving six focus group discussion sessions, and the results of both parts were integrated to provide a detailed explanation of TSB among the participants. Results: A total of 381 participants were involved in the quantitative study, yielding a response rate of 94.8%; 246 (64.6%) engaged in inappropriate TSB. Some of the reported morbidities among the participants were hypertension (26.5%) and diabetes mellitus (26.2%). From the qualitative study, a main theme related to TSB emerged with several sub-themes, which were health literacy, stage of seeking treatment, preference for alternative treatment, perceived threat of illness, self-treatment, and the influence of family members and others. Conclusions: TSB among male civil servants in northeastern Malaysia is poor, and the factors contributing to it are multidimensional. This study has provided new valuable evidence on men's TSB in northeastern Malaysia. The findings can be used to facilitate and improve current policies and the implementation of men's health services throughout the country.

A Critical Appraisal of COVID-19 in Malaysia and Beyond

When the first report of COVID-19 appeared in December 2019 from Wuhan, China, the world unknowingly perceived this as another flu-like illness. Many were surprised at the extreme steps that China had subsequently taken to seal Wuhan from the rest of the world. However, by February 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, had spread so quickly across the globe that the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic. COVID-19 is not the first pandemic the world has seen, so what makes it so unique in Malaysia, is discussed to avoid a future coronacoma.

Tobacco Denormalization Indicator in the Prevalence of Positive Smoker Identity and Its Associated Factors

Positive smoker identity (PSI) is a construct that evaluates the degree of smokers' positive thoughts, images and feeling about smoking behavior and culture. PSI encompasses the indicators related to tobacco denormalization strategy, which is one of the four WHO tobacco endgame strategies. PSmoQi is a newly validated instrument which could reliably assess PSI. This study's objectives were to determine the prevalence of positive smoker identity and its associated factors using PSmoQi. A sample of 253 smokers from government agencies in Kota Bharu City, Malaysia were recruited using invitation letters sent to their head of agencies. Data collection was done in a briefing session voluntary attended by the smokers. Factors associated with PSI were analyzed using Multiple Logistic Regression. The prevalence of smokers with positive smoker identity was 72.3%. Factors associated with positive smoker identity were older age (Adjusted Odds ratio; AOR: 1.042; 95% confident interval; CI: 1.004, 1.081); p = 0.028), higher smoking self-concept scale Malay version (SSCS-M) score (AOR: 1.216; 95% CI: 1.112, 1.329; p < 0.001), higher heaviness index (AOR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.001, 1.004; p = 0.011) and lower educational attainment (AOR: 0.458; 95% CI: 0.233, 0.900; p = 0.024). This study shows a high prevalence of PSI among smokers from government agencies in Kota Bharu City. Factors such as age, SSCS-M score, heaviness index and educational attainment influenced the level of positive smoker identity in a smoker. The finding would contribute an evidentiary guideline in screening smokers for smoking cessation clinic enrollment to achieve the best interventional outcome, as well as it would provide an objective indicator for tobacco denormalization status in a population.

Modelling the prognostic effect of glucose and lipid profiles on stroke recurrence in Malaysia: an event-history analysis

Background

Diabetes and dyslipidemia are significantly associated with stroke recurrence, yet the evidence for this relationship is conflicting. Consequently, the parameters in the glucose and lipid profiles may inform us regarding their relationship with stroke recurrence, thus enhancing the physicians' clinical decision-making.

Aim

This study sought to investigate whether glucose and lipid profiles could prognosticate stroke recurrence in Malaysia.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective hospital-based study where we analyzed the first-ever stroke cases regarding about which the Malaysia National Stroke Registry was informed between 2009 and 2017, that fulfilled this study's criteria, and that were followed for stroke recurrence. Using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, we estimated the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), which reflected the prognostic effect of the primary variables (i.e., glucose and lipid profiles on the first-stroke admission) on stroke recurrence.

Results

Among the 8,576 first-ever stroke patients, 394 (4.6%) experienced a subsequent first stroke recurrence event. The prognostic effect measured by univariable Cox regression showed that, when unadjusted, ten variables have prognostic value with regards to stroke recurrence. A multivariable regression analysis revealed that glucose was not a significant prognostic factor (adjusted HR 1.28; 95% CI [1.00-1.65]), while triglyceride level was the only parameter in the lipid profile found to have an independent prognostication concerning stroke recurrence (adjusted HR: 1.28 to 1.36).

Conclusions

Triglyceride could independently prognosticate stroke recurrence, which suggests the role of physicians in intervening hypertriglyceridemia. In line with previous recommendations, we call for further investigations in first-ever stroke patients with impaired glucose and lipid profiles and suggest a need for interventions in these patients.

Reduced CD4+ terminally differentiated effector memory T cells in moderate-severe house dust mites sensitized allergic rhinitis patients

BACKGROUND

Terminally differentiated effector memory (TEMRA) T cells exert potent effector function after activation. The proportions of CD4+ T cell subsets especially memory cells in allergic rhinitis (AR) patients sensitized to house dust mites (HDMs) have not been extensively studied.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the mean percentages and absolute counts of CD4+ memory T cell subsets between: (i) non-allergic controls and AR patients; (ii) mild AR patients and moderate-severe AR patients.

METHODS

Sensitization to Dermatophagoides farinae and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus were determined in 33 non -allergic controls, 28 mild AR and 29 moderate-severe AR patients. Flow cytometry was used to determine the percentage of CD4+ na?ve (TN; CD45RA+CCR7+), central memory (TCM; CD45RA-CCR7+), effector memory (TEM; CD45RA-CCR7-) and TEMRA (CD45RA+CCR7-) T cells from the peripheral blood. The absolute counts of CD4+ T cell subsets were obtained by dual platform method from flow cytometer and hematology analyzer.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the mean percentages and absolute counts of CD4+ T cell subsets between non-allergic controls and AR patients sensitized to HDMs. However, there were significant reduction in the mean percentage (p=0.0307) and absolute count (p=0.0309) of CD4+ TEMRA cells in moderate-severe AR patients compared to mild AR patients sensitized to HDMs and 13/24 (54.2%) moderate-severe AR patients sensitized to HDMs had persistent symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Reduction in the mean percentage and absolute count of CD4+CD45RA+CCR7- TEMRA cells were observed in moderate-severe AR patients compared to mild AR patients in our population of AR patients sensitized to HDMs.

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background

The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.

Methods

We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.

Results

Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.

Conclusions

While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

A 10-Year Journey of the USM Master and Doctoral Degrees in Public Health

The article introduces readers to the Master of Public Health and Doctor of Public Health programmes, offered by the Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia. The programme vision, structure and accomplishments over the decade are presented to provide an understanding of the programme. It is hoped that this professional programme will continue to flourish and produce new generations of public health medicine specialist equipped with the necessary knowledge and skills to make significant contribution towards improving the health of the population.

The estimated cost of surgically managed isolated traumatic head injury secondary to road traffic accidents

OBJECTIVE Traumatic brain injury due to road traffic accidents occurs mainly in the younger age group in which injury-related disability leads to long-term impact on employment and economic and social consequences across the lifespan. This study was designed to assign a monetary cost (in Malaysian ringgits [RM]) to the treatment of patients with surgically treated isolated traumatic head injury as determined up to 1 year after injury. METHODS Relevant resource items used were identified and valued using the direct measurement of costs method, cost accounting methods, standard unit costs method, fees, charges and/or market prices method. These values were then tabulated to generate the total costs for each patient, via a combination of macro-costing and micro-costing methods. Malaysian currency values were converted to US dollars according to the average conversion rate for the period from January to May 2016: RM1 = US$0.2452. RESULTS This costing study analyzed data from 49 patients. The estimated cost for the 1st year of care for all patients was RM1,471,919.80 (US$360,914.735), with a mean (± SD) cost per case of RM30,039.18 ± 22,986.25 or $7365.61 ± $5636.23. The mean cost of care per case was RM11,041.35 ± 10,936.88 or $2707.34 ± $2681.72 for mild head injury, RM32,550.00 ± 20,998.76 or $7981.26 ± $5148.90 for moderate head injury, and RM36,917.86 ± 23,697.34 or $9052.26 ± $5810.59 for severe head injury. Severe head injury (p = 0.001), sustaining 2 or more intracranial pathologies (p = 0.01), having a poor Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score (GOS score 1-3) (p = 0.02), requiring a tracheostomy (p < 0.001), and contracting pneumonia (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with higher cost. Logistic regression analysis revealed that cost of care increased by RM591.60 or $145.06 per year increment of age (β = RM591.60, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS The mean cost of treatment for traumatic head injury is high compared to the per capita income of RM37,900 in 2016. The cost values generated in this study provide baseline cost estimates that the authors hope will be used as a guide to determine where adequate funding should be allocated to provide timely and appropriate delivery of care.

Effect of MyMAFI-A Newly Developed Mobile App for Field Investigation of Food Poisoning Outbreak on the Timeliness in Reporting: A Randomized Crossover Trial

Prompt investigation of food poisoning outbreak are essential, as it usually involves a short incubation period. Utilizing the advancement in mobile technology, a mobile application named MyMAFI (My Mobile Apps for Field Investigation) was developed with the aim to be an alternative and better tool for current practices of field investigation of food poisoning outbreak. A randomized cross-over trial with two arms and two treatment periods was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the newly developed mobile application as compared to the standard paper-based format approach. Thirty-six public health inspectors from all districts in Kelantan participated in this study and they were randomized into two equal sized groups. Group A started the trial as control group using the paper-format investigation form via simulated outbreaks and group B used the mobile application. After a one-month ‘washout period’, the group was crossed over. The primary outcome measured was the time taken to complete the outbreak investigation. The treatment effects, the period effects and the period-by-treatment interaction were analyzed using Pkcross command in Stata software. There was a significant treatment effect with mean square 21840.5 and its corresponding F statistic 4.47 (p-value = 0.038), which indicated that the mobile application had significantly improve the reporting timeliness. The results also showed that there was a significant period effect (p-value = 0.025); however, the treatment by period interaction was not significant (p-value = 0.830). The newly developed mobile application—MyMAFI—can improve the timeliness in reporting for investigation of food poisoning outbreak.

Contribution of Genetic Polymorphisms of Inflammation Response Genes on Sporadic Colorectal Cancer Predisposition Risk in Malaysian Patients - A Case Control Study

AIM:

To investigate the frequencies and association of polymorphic genotypes of IL-8 -251 T>A, TNF-α -308 G>A, ICAM-1 K469E, ICAM-1 R241G, IL-6 -174 G>C, and PPAR-γ 34 C>G in modulating susceptibility risk in Malaysian colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

Methods:

In this case-control study, peripheral blood samples of 560 study subjects (280 CRC patients and 280 controls) were collected, DNA extracted and genotyped using PCR-RFLP and Allele Specific PCR. The association between polymorphic genotype and CRC susceptibility risk was determined using Logistic Regression analysis deriving Odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI.

Results:

On comparing the frequencies of genotypes of all single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs ) in patients and controls, the homozygous variant genotypes IL-8 -251 AA and TNF-α -308 AA and variant A alleles were significantly higher in CRC patients. Investigation on the association of the variant alleles and genotypes singly, with susceptibility risk showed the homozygous variant A alleles and genotypes IL-8 -251 AA and TNF-α -308 AA to be at higher risk for CRC predisposition. Analysis based on age, gender and smoking habits showed that the polymorphisms IL8 -251 T>A and TNF – α 308 G>A contribute to a significantly higher risk among male and female who are more than 50 years and for smokers in this population.

Conclusion:

We observed an association between variant allele and genotypes of IL-8-251 T>A and TNF-α-308 G>A polymorphisms and CRC susceptibility risk in Malaysian patients. These two SNPs in inflammatory response genes which undoubtedly contribute to individual risks to CRC susceptibility may be considered as potential genetic predisposition factors for CRC in Malaysian population.

GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6-46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7-20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0-12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6-10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05-1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5-90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8-35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8-17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends in stroke outcomes at hospital discharge in first-ever stroke patients: Observations from the Malaysia National Stroke Registry (2009-2017)

BACKGROUND

Stroke outcomes could be a quality indicator across the continuum of care and inform stroke management policymaking. However, this topic has rarely to date been studied directly.

AIMS

We sought to investigate recent trends in stroke outcomes at hospital discharge among first-ever stroke patients.

METHODS

This was an analysis of data from the Malaysia National Stroke Registry. Patients aged 18 years or older documented as having a first episode of stroke in the registry were recruited. Subsequently, the comparison of proportions for overall and sex-specific stroke outcomes between years (from 2009 to 2017) was conducted. The primary outcome was modified Rankin Scale score, which was assessed at hospital discharge, and each patient was categorized as follows: 1) functional independence, 2) functional dependence, or 3) death for analysis.

RESULTS

This study included 9361 first-ever stroke patients. Approximately 36.2% (3369) were discharged in an independence state, 53.1% (4945) experienced functional dependence, and 10.8% (1006) patients died at the time of hospital discharge. The percentage of patients who were discharged independently increased from 23.3% in 2009 to 46.5% in 2017, while that of patients discharged in a disabled state fell from 56.0% in 2009 to 45.6% in 2017. The percentage of death at discharge was reduced from 20.7% in 2009 to 7.8% in 2017. These findings suggest that the proportions of stroke outcomes at hospital discharge have changed significantly over time (p < 0.001), and there was a significant sex-related difference in stroke outcomes at hospital discharge following first stroke episode (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate there has been a significant change in stroke outcomes over the past nine years in Malaysia. This information ought to be considered in ongoing efforts of tertiary stroke prevention.