Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

INTERPRETATION

The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

METHODS

We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

FINDINGS

Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015

Background

The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.

Objectives

The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.

Methods

CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.

Results

In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.

Conclusions

CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed.

METHODS

We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2-25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1-5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8-31·1) and 34·4% (29·4-38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7-7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Revisiting Types and Risk Factors for Thyroid Malignancy in a State Endemic of Iodine Deficiency Goiter

Introduction

We have realized that recent rise in incidence of thyroid malignancy is partly because of incidental findings of cancer after resection for benign goiters. Therefore, we aim to reanalyze risk factors for thyroid malignancy in those patients who underwent primary thyroid surgery at Breast and Endocrine Surgical Unit, Department of Surgery, Hospital Raja Perempuan Zainab II, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia.

Materials and methods

Retrospective review in our database found 699 patients who had undergone thyroid surgeries between June 2007 and December 2014. According to the final histopathological report of resected specimen, these patients, operated for goiter, were divided into two groups: Thyroid malignancy group and nonmalignancy group. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of age, duration and weight of resected specimen for having thyroid malignancy.

Results

The mean value for age was 43.5 years [standard deviation (SD) = 14.0); duration of neck swelling was 5.9 months (SD = 6.7); and weight of resected specimen was 157 gm (SD = 161.0). Around 26.9% cases had thyroid malignancy (n = 188), about 77.13% cases had papillary thyroid carcinoma and 17.6% had follicular thyroid carcinoma. Age associates with risk for malignancy (p < 0.001), but duration of neck swelling (p = 0.513) and weight of resected specimen (p = 0.955) do not relate with this. With an increase of 1 year of age, the odds to have thyroid malignancy increase for 2%. This is equivalent with 14.4% increase in cancer for every 5-year increase in age.

Conclusion

Our study has found that increasing age is the only associated factor for risk of thyroid malignancy. When managing elderly patients who has clinically benign goiter, differential diagnosis of thyroid cancer need be considered as well.

How to cite this article

Wong MW, Hadi IA, Musa KI. Revisiting Types and Risk Factors for Thyroid Malignancy in a State Endemic of Iodine Deficiency Goiter. World J Endoc Surg 2017;9(2):51-54.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reporting Statistical Results in Medical Journals

Statistical editors of the Malaysian Journal of Medical Sciences (MJMS) must go through many submitted manuscripts, focusing on the statistical aspect of the manuscripts. However, the editors notice myriad styles of reporting the statistical results, which are not standardised among the authors. This could be due to the lack of clear written instructions on reporting statistics in the guidelines for authors. The aim of this editorial is to briefly outline reporting methods for several important and common statistical results. It will also address a number of common mistakes made by the authors. The editorial will serve as a guideline for authors aiming to publish in the MJMS as well as in other medical journals.

The Combination of Sonography and Physical Examination Improves the Patency and Suitability of Hemodialysis Arteriovenous Fistula in Vascular Access

PURPOSE

We compared the patency and the suitability of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) created for vascular access by two approaches: (a) physical examination with preoperative vascular mapping and (b) physical examination alone.

METHODS

We compared the patency and the suitability of AVF created in patients for dialysis. There were two cohorts of patients of 79 patients each: (a) patients with AVF created based on the combination of physical examination and preoperative vascular mapping (PE+VM) and (b) patients with AVF created based on physical examination (PE) alone. Fistula patency is defined as clinical detection of thrill (or auscultation) of murmur over the fistula and coded as having thrills (patent) versus not having thrills (not patent). Suitability of fistula is defined as functioning AVF (AVF can be adequately used via 2-needle cannulation for dialysis) and coded as suitable versus not suitable.

RESULTS

AVF created after the preoperative vascular mapping (PE+VM) has 5.70 (at six weeks) and 3.76 (at three months) times higher chance for patency, and 3.08 times higher chance for suitable AVF for dialysis than AVF created after the physical examination (PE) alone.

CONCLUSION

Physical examination with preoperative ultrasound mapping (PE+VM) significantly improves the short term patency and the suitability of AVF for dialysis.

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

BACKGROUND

Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

METHODS

We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.

FINDINGS

We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women.

INTERPRETATION

If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

TRADITIONAL CARDIOVASCULAR RISK-FACTORS AMONG HEALTHCARE WORKERS IN KELANTAN, MALAYSIA

We conducted a cross sectional study of cardiovascular risk factors among healthcare workers at four government hospitals in Kelantan, Malaysia. We randomly selected 330 subjects fulfilling the following study criteria: those who had been working for at least one year at that health facility, Malaysians citizens and those with some form of direct contact with patients. We conducted an interview, obtained physical measurements, a fasting blood sugar and fasting lipid profiles among 308 subjects. The mean age of the subjects was 43.5 years, 82% were female; 30.8%, 14.3%, 10.4%, 1.3% and 1.6% of the subjects had dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, a history of stroke and a history of ischemic heart disease, respectively. Forty-two percent of subjects had at least one medical condition. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 27.0 kg/M2 (SD=4.8) and 24.3% had a BMI > or =30 kg/M2. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 121.5 mmHg (SD=14.0) and 76.5 mmHg (SD=9.7), respectively and the mean waist-hip ratio was 0.84 (SD=0.1). The mean fasting blood sugar, total cholesterol, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein and low density lipoprotein were 5.8 mmol/l (SD=2.4), 5.5 mmol/l (SD=1.0), 1.4 mmol/l (SD=0.9), 1.5 mmol/l (SD=0.3) and 3.5 mmol/l (SD=0.9), respectively. Our study population had a smaller proportion of hypertension than that of the general Malaysian population. They had higher fasting total cholesterol, slightly lower fasting blood sugar, with a large proportion of them, obese and had diabetes. Immediate intervention is needed to reduce the traditional cardiovascular risk factors in this population. Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, health care workers, Malaysia

An audit of diabetes-dependent quality of life in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Malaysia

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to evaluate and validate the ADDQoL and to assess the impact of diabetes on QoL among the type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Malaysia.

METHODS

The Malay and English versions of the ADDQoL questionnaire were administered to patients attending routine outpatient visits in three primary hospitals and a public clinic. The construct validity of the ADDQoL was validated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The sample comprised 350 Malay respondents who rated the ADDQoL Malay version and 246 non-Malay respondents (Chinese or Indian) who answered using the ADDQoL original English version.

RESULTS

CFA confirmed the presence of one-factor structure for both samples. The internal consistency was high with Cronbach's alpha values of 0.945 and 0.907 for the ADDQoL Malay and English versions, respectively. Results showed that for all three ethnicities, the most important domain is 'family life'. Overall, Malay patients stated their 'living conditions' is the most negatively affected, while for Chinese and Indians, diabetes has the greatest impact on their 'freedom to eat'.

CONCLUSIONS

The ADDQoL was found to be culturally appropriate, valid and reliable among Malay- and English-speaking type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Malaysia.

Prevalence of diabetes in Malaysia and usefulness of HbA1c as a diagnostic criterion

AIM

The prevalence of diabetes mellitus among Malaysians aged ≥ 30 years of age has increased by more than twofold over a 20-year period. This study aimed to determine the current status and to evaluate the diagnostic usefulness of the HbA(1c) cut-off point of 48 mmol/mol (6.5%).

METHODS

Using a two-stage stratified sampling design, participants aged ≥ 18 years were recruited from five zones selected to represent Malaysia. An oral glucose tolerance test was performed on all those not known to have diabetes.

RESULTS

A total of 4341 subjects were recruited. By World Health Organization criteria, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus was 22.9%; of that percentage, 10.8% was known diabetes and 12.1% was newly diagnosed diabetes. Diabetes was most prevalent amongst Indians (37.9%) and Malays (23.8%). Prevalence of new diabetes mellitus was only 5.5% (95% CI 4.9-6.3) when based on the HbA(1c) diagnostic criteria of 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) and, although the cut-off point was highly specific (98.1%), it was less sensitive (36.7%) compared with 45 mmol/mol (6.3%), which showed the optimal sum of sensitivity (42.5%) and specificity (97.4%) in identifying new diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSION

This study recorded an overall diabetes prevalence of 22.6%, almost a twofold increase from 11.6% reported in 2006. This was likely attributable to the higher prevalence of new diabetes (12.1%) diagnosed following an oral glucose tolerance test. An HbA(1c) of 45 mmol/mol (6.3%) was found to be a better predictive cut-off point for detecting new diabetes in our multi-ethnic population.

Risk factors of leptospirosis among febrile hospital admissions in northeastern Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonotic disease. Risk factors for the disease may vary among countries.

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted to determine the risk factors of leptospirosis among febrile cases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 999 febrile patients admitted to 10 hospitals in northeastern Malaysia, from August 2010 to February 2011. An interviewer-guided proforma sheet on sociodemography, type of occupation and social history data was distributed to all adult patients with fever on admission. Serum sample for leptospirosis was screened by IgM Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (IgM ELISA) test and confirmed by Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT). The cut-off point for positive MAT was ≥ 1:400 titer in single acute specimens.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence of leptospirosis was 8.4% (95% CI: 6.8, 10.3) (n=84/999) by MAT. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the high risk occupation group (OR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 3.13) (p=0.005) and history of recent recreational activity (OR: 2.36, 95% CI: 1.46, 3.85) (p<0.001) were significant associated factors for leptospirosis.

CONCLUSION

This study shows a relatively high seroprevalence of leptospirosis in northeastern Malaysia. Identification of high risk occupational group and history of recent recreational activity will help to increase the index of suspicion to diagnose leptospirosis among febrile inpatients due to its mimicking other common febrile illnesses in Malaysia.

Effect of Withania somnifera (Ashwagandha) on the development of chemotherapy-induced fatigue and quality of life in breast cancer patients

Hypothesis. Withania somnifera is an herb with antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antistress, and adaptogenic properties. Previous studies have shown its antistress effects in animals. Traditional Indian medicine has used it for centuries to alleviate fatigue and improve general well-being.

METHODS

This is an open-label prospective nonrandomized comparative trial on 100 patients with breast cancer in all stages undergoing either a combination of chemotherapy with oral Withania somnifera or chemotherapy alone. The chemotherapy regimens were either taxotere, adriamycin, and cyclophosphamide or 5-fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide. Withania somnifera root extract was administered to patients in the study group at a dose of 2 g every 8 hours, throughout the course of chemotherapy. The quality-of-life and fatigue scores were evaluated before, during, and on the last cycles of chemotherapy using the EORTC QLQ-C30 (Version 3), Piper Fatigue Scale (PFS), and Schwartz Cancer Fatigue Scale (SCFS-6).

RESULTS

The median age distributions in the study and control arm were 51 years (range = 36-70) and 50.5 years (range = 32-71), respectively. The majority (77%) of patients had stage II and III disease. Patients in the control arm experienced statistically significant higher estimated marginal means of fatigue score compared with the study group (P < .001 PFS, P < .003 SCFS-6). Furthermore, various symptom scales of the EORTC QLQ-C30 were statistically significant in 7 out of 18 symptoms in the intervention group compared with the control group (P < .001). The 24-month overall survival for all stages in study and control group patients were 72% versus 56%, respectively; however, the result was not significant (P = .176), at a median follow-up duration of 26 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Withania somnifera has potential against cancer-related fatigue, in addition to improving the quality of life. However, further study with a larger sample size in a randomized trial is warranted to validate our findings.

Predictors of ischaemic heart disease in a Malaysian population with the metabolic syndrome

AIMS

Cardiovascular disease is the foremost cause of mortality in Malaysia but little is known about the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its associations with other known cardiovascular risk markers. We undertook a population-based study to examine these.

METHODS

For the study, 4341 subjects were selected using a multistage stratified sampling method. Subjects were interviewed for personal and past medical history. Biomedical markers and anthropometric indices were measured. The metabolic syndrome was defined using the harmonized criteria. The associations between the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk markers, including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, microalbuminuria and HbA(1c) were examined.

RESULTS

The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 42.5%. Subjects with the metabolic syndrome are significantly more likely to have higher BMI (> 25 kg/m(2)), HbA(1c) [≥ 42 mmol/mol (6.0%)], LDL (≥ 2.6 mmol/l), elevated albumin:creatinine ratio (> 2.5 μg/mmol creatinine for men, 3.5 μg/mmol creatinine for women) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (> 3 mg/l); odds ratio 5.48, 6.14, 1.44, 3.68 and 1.84, respectively, P < 0.001. The presence of an elevated albumin:creatinine ratio and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein are strong predictors for the presence of a higher number of positive criteria of the metabolic syndrome. HbA(1c) > 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) is associated with increased relative risk of elevated albumin:creatinine ratio, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and LDL (relative risk 3.10, 2.46 and 1.65 respectively, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in Malaysia. Our study revealed a strong relationship between risk markers of elevated BMI, HbA(1c), LDL, albumin:creatinine ratio and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein with the presence of the metabolic syndrome, putting them at a statistically high risk for cardiovascular mortality.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its risk factors in adult Malaysians: results of a nationwide survey

Aim: To report the national prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its risk factors among adult Malaysians (>18 years old) based on World Health Organization (WHO), the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel III (ATP III), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and the 'Harmonized' criteria.Methods: A multi-stage stratified sampling method was used to select 4341 subjects from Peninsular and East Malaysia. Subjects underwent physical and clinical examinations.Results: Based on the WHO, ATP III, IDF and Harmonized definitions, the overall crude prevalences of MetS were 32.1, 34.3, 37.1 and 42.5%, respectively. Regardless of the criteria used, MetS was higher in urban areas, in females, in the Indian population and increased significantly with age. Risk factors also increased with age; abdominal obesity was most prevalent (57.4%), was higher in females (64.2%) and was highest in Indians (68.8%).Hypertension was higher in males (56.5%) and highest among Malays (52.2%). In contrast,the Chinese had the highest prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia (47.4%).Conclusions: Malaysia has a much higher prevalence of MetS compared with other Asian countries and, unless there is immediate intervention to reduce risk factors, this may pose serious implications on the country's healthcare costs and services.

Sociocultural and dietary practices among Malay subjects in the north-eastern region of Peninsular Malaysia: a region of low prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection is exceptionally low among the Malays in the north-eastern region of Peninsular Malaysia. The reasons are unknown. Our aim was to compare environmental factors that differed in relation to H. pylori prevalence among Malays born and residing in Kelantan.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted among Malays in Kelantan who underwent upper endoscopy between 2000 and 2008. Helicobacter pylori status was determined by gastric histology. Sociocultural and dietary factors were assessed using a validated investigator-directed questionnaire administered after 2008, and the data were analyzed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The study group consisted of 161 subjects (79 H. pylori positive and 82 controls). Univariable analysis identified five poor sanitary practices associated with an increased prevalence of H. pylori infection: use of well water, use of pit latrine, less frequent boiling of drinking water, and infrequent hand wash practice after toilet use and before meals. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified three variables inversely associated with H. pylori infection: frequent consumption of tea (OR: 0.023, 95% CI: 0.01-0.07), frequent use of "budu" or local anchovy sauce (OR: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.1-0.7), and frequent use of "pegaga" or centenella asiatica (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.1-0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Under the assumption that sanitary, sociocultural, and dietary habits have not changed over the years, we can conclude that an increased risk of H. pylori was associated with unsanitary practices whereas protection was associated with consumption of tea and locally produced foods, "pegaga" and "budu." These dietary factors are candidates for future study on the effects on H. pylori transmission.

Lipid profile parameters in Malaysian dyslipidemic patients

INTRODUCTION

The importance of serum lipids as cardiovascular risk factors is well recognized. However, most published studies have focused on western countries. The present study aimed to describe and analyze the lipid profile parameters in Malaysian dyslipidemic patients, and to identify concomitant clinical problems and risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) among such patients.

METHODS

A retrospective record review was carried out at Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia. The records were reviewed for 890 dyslipidemic patients who attended the hospital in 2007. Data were collected for age at time of presentation, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, pre-treatment lipid levels, and presence of associated illnesses. The study sample was classified according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III risk groups.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) values for total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were 6.4 (1.3), 4.1 (1.3), 1.4 (0.5) and 1.9 (1.2) mmol/l, respectively. Less than half of study sample (43.1%) had coronary heart disease and coronary heart diseases equivalents, 24.3% were at moderate risk, and 32.6% were at low risk. Hypertension was present in 79.9% of the study sample, while 27.5% were diabetics. Cardiovascular disease was reported among 17.9%. Logistic regression revealed that family history of premature cardiovascular disease, higher age risk group; ethnicity and total cholesterol were predictors for the development of cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSION

The present review showed that dyslipidemic patients had high total cholesterol levels, according to National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. They were clinically diagnosed at middle age. Hypertension and diabetes were the commonest associated clinical problems. A large proportion of the patients were within the coronary heart disease or coronary heart disease risk equivalent group. Family history of premature cardiovascular disease, age, ethnicity, and total cholesterol are important risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease in Malaysian dyslipidemic patients.

Reliability and accuracy of the tape measurement method with a nearest reading of 5 mm in the assessment of leg length discrepancy

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to determine the reliability and accuracy of the tape measurement method (TMM) with a nearest reading of 5 mm in assessing leg length discrepancy (LLD).

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 35 patients with LLD and 13 patients without LLD. Two blinded surgeons measured the lower limbs from the anterior superior iliac spine to the medial malleolus using TMM with a nearest reading of 5 mm. Computed tomography (CT) scanograms of the lower limbs of 22 patients were conducted by two blinded radiologists. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with 95 percent confidence interval was calculated to assess the interobserver reliability of TMM. The accuracy of TMM was assessed by comparison with CT as the gold standard.

RESULTS

The interobserver reliability of LLD measurement using both TMM and CT scanogram was high, with ICCs of 0.924 and 0.971, respectively. No significant mean difference on paired sample t-test was observed for both TMM and CT scanogram. Compared to CT scanogram, TMM had good accuracy, with an ICC of 0.805. When the mean TMM readings by two observers were compared to those derived from CT scanogram, the ICC was found to be 0.847, with a mean difference of 1.95 (range -3.17 to 7.07) mm.

CONCLUSION

There was excellent agreement in the LLD measurements between the two surgeons using TMM, between the two radiologists using CT sonogram, and between the TMM and CT measurements. This study showed that one TMM with the nearest reading of 5 mm was reliable and accurate in measuring LLD.