Prevalence, incidence, and outcome of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in Asia, 1999-2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most prevalent chronic liver disease worldwide. Asia is a large, heterogeneous area with substantial variation in socioeconomic status and prevalence of obesity. We estimated the prevalence, incidence, and outcomes of NAFLD in the Asian population to assist stakeholders in understanding NAFLD disease burden.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from database inception to Jan 17, 2019, for studies reporting NAFLD prevalence, incidence, or outcome in Asia. We included only cross-sectional and longitudinal observational studies of patients with NAFLD diagnosed by imaging, serum-based indices, or liver biopsy. Studies that included patients with overlapping liver disease or that did not screen for excess alcohol consumption were excluded. Two investigators independently screened and extracted data. The main outcomes were pooled NAFLD prevalence, incidence, and hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and overall mortality in patients with NAFLD. Summary estimates were calculated using a random-effects model. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018088468.

FINDINGS

Of 4995 records identified, 237 studies (13 044 518 participants) were included for analysis. The overall prevalence of NAFLD regardless of diagnostic method was 29·62% (95% CI 28·13-31·15). NAFLD prevalence increased significantly over time (25·28% [22·42-28·37] between 1999 and 2005, 28·46% [26·70-30·29] between 2006 and 2011, and 33·90% [31·74-36·12] between 2012 and 2017; p<0·0001). The pooled annual NAFLD incidence rate was 50·9 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI 44·8-57·4). In patients with NAFLD, the annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 1·8 cases per 1000 person-years (0·8-3·1) and overall mortality rate was 5·3 deaths per 1000 person-years (1·5-11·4).

INTERPRETATION

NAFLD prevalence in Asia is increasing and is associated with poor outcomes including hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Targeted public health strategies must be developed in Asia to target the drivers of this rising epidemic and its associated complications, especially in high-risk groups, such as older obese men.

FUNDING

None.

Effect of sarcopenia on survival in patients with cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The association between sarcopenia and prognosis in patients with cirrhosis remains to be determined. In this study, we aimed to quantify the association between sarcopenia and the risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis, stratified by sex, underlying liver disease etiology, and severity of hepatic dysfunction.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and major scientific conference sessions were searched without language restriction through 13 January 2021 with an additional manual search of bibliographies of relevant articles. Cohort studies of ≥100 patients with cirrhosis and ≥12 months of follow-up that evaluated the association between sarcopenia, muscle mass and the risk of mortality were included.

RESULTS

Twenty-two studies involving 6,965 patients with cirrhosis were included. The pooled prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis was 37.5% overall (95% CI 32.4%-42.8%), and was higher in male patients, those with alcohol-associated liver disease, those with Child-Pugh grade C cirrhosis, and when sarcopenia was defined by L3-SMI (third lumbar-skeletal muscle index). Sarcopenia was associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.30, 95% CI 2.01-2.63), with similar findings in a sensitivity analysis of patients with cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma (aHR 2.35, 95% CI 1.95-2.83) and in subgroups stratified by sex, liver disease etiology, and severity of hepatic dysfunction. The association between quantitative muscle mass index and mortality further supports the association between sarcopenia and poor prognosis (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.98). There was no significant heterogeneity in any of our analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia was highly and independently associated with higher risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

LAY SUMMARY

The prevalence of sarcopenia and its association with death in patients with cirrhosis remain unclear. This meta-analysis indicated that sarcopenia affected about one-third of patients with cirrhosis and up to 50% of patients with alcohol-related liver disease or Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis. Sarcopenia was independently associated with an ∼2-fold higher risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. The mortality rate increased with greater severity or longer durations of sarcopenia. Increasing awareness about the importance of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis among stakeholders must be prioritized.

Cost-effectiveness of universal screening for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

China has the highest prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection worldwide. Universal HBV screening might enable China to reach the WHO 2030 target of 90% diagnostics, 80% treatment, and 65% HBV-related death reduction, and eventually elimination of viral hepatitis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing universal HBV screening in China and identified optimal screening strategies.

METHODS

We used a Markov cohort model, inputting parameters based on data from previous studies and public databases, to assess the cost-effectiveness of four HBV serological screening strategies in China in different screening scenarios. We simulated universal screening scenarios in 15 adult age groups between 18 and 70 years, with different years of screening implementation (2021, 2026, and 2031) and compared to the status quo (ie, no universal screening); in total, we investigated 180 different screening scenarios. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the different screening strategies and the status quo (current screening strategy). We performed probabilistic and one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

FINDINGS

With a willingness-to-pay level of three times the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (US$30 828), all universal screening scenarios in 2021 were cost-effective compared with the status quo. The serum HBsAg/HBsAb/HBeAg/HBeAb/HBcAb (five-test) screening strategy in people aged 18-70 years was the most cost-effective strategy in 2021 (ICER $18 295/quality-adjusted life-years [QALY] gained). This strategy remained the most cost-effective, when the willingness-to-pay threshold was reduced to 2 times GDP per capita. The two-test strategy for people aged 18-70 years became more cost-effective at lower willingness-to-pay levels. The five-test strategy could prevent 3·46 million liver-related deaths in China over the lifetime of the cohort. It remained the most cost-effective strategy when implementation was delayed until 2026 (ICER $20 183/QALY) and 2031 (ICER $23 123/QALY). Screening young people (18-30 years) will no longer be cost-effective in delayed scenarios.

INTERPRETATION

The five-test universal screening strategy in people aged 18-70 years, implemented within the next 10 years, is the optimal HBV screening strategy for China. Other screening strategies could be cost-effective alternatives, if budget is limited in rural areas. Delaying strategy implementation reduces overall cost-effectiveness. Early screening initiation will aid global efforts in achieving viral hepatitis elimination.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence with tenofovir versus entecavir in chronic hepatitis B: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir differ in their association with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B, and previous meta-analyses have shown conflicting conclusions with substantial heterogeneity. We aimed to analyse the updated data and elucidate the source of heterogeneity.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane library for relevant studies with time-to-event data for incident hepatocellular carcinoma occurring in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received tenofovir disoproxil fumarate or entecavir monotherapy with follow-up of at least 1 year. Studies published between Jan 1, 2006, and April 17, 2020, and abstracts from international conferences in 2018 and 2019 were included. We pooled covariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for hepatocellular carcinoma using a random-effects model, assessed heterogeneity among included studies using the I2 statistic and Cochran's Q test, and identified the source of heterogeneity using prespecified subgroup analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, ID CRD42020176513.

FINDINGS

31 studies involving 119 053 patients were analysed. The 5-year cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 5·97% (95% CI 5·81-6·13, 28 studies) for entecavir and 3·06% (2·86-3·26, 13 studies) for tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in studies with unmatched populations (p<0·0001). For all eight studies matched by propensity score, the 5-year cumulative incidence was 3·44% (95% CI 3·08-3·80) for entecavir and 3·39% (2·94-3·83) for tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (p=0·87). Analysis of 14 comparative studies with covariate adjustment found that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir had similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (primary outcome); adjusted HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·73-1·07; p=0·20), although heterogeneity was significant (I2=56·4%, p=0·0038). In a subgroup analysis for hospital-based clinical cohorts, there was no difference in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence between the two regimens (adjusted HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·88-1·21; I2=0%). However, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate was associated with a lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma compared with entecavir in administrative database research (adjusted HR 0·67, 0·59-0·76; I2=0%).

INTERPRETATION

Our study found no significant difference between tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir in their association with incident hepatocellular carcinoma. We suggest that treatment should be guided by patient tolerability and affordability rather than whether one drug is more effective than the other.

FUNDING

Supported in part by E-DA Hospital (EDAHP 106008; EDAHP 103046).

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on liver disease-related mortality rates in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The pandemic has resulted in an increase of deaths not directly related to COVID-19 infection. We aimed to use a national death dataset to determine the impact of the pandemic on people with liver disease in the USA, focusing on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

Using data from the National Vital Statistic System from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) platform and ICD-10 codes, we identified deaths associated with liver disease. We evaluated observed vs. predicted mortality for 2020-2021 based on trends from 2010-2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analysis.

RESULTS

Among 626,090 chronic liver disease-related deaths between 2010 and 2021, Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for ALD dramatically increased between 2010-2019 and 2020-2021 (annual percentage change [APC] 3.5% to 17.6%, p <0.01), leading to a higher observed ASMR (per 100,000 persons) than predicted for 2020 (15.67 vs. 13.04) and 2021 (17.42 vs. 13.41). ASMR for NAFLD also increased during the pandemic (APC: 14.5%), whereas the rates for hepatitis B and C decreased. Notably, the ASMR rise for ALD was most pronounced in non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Alaska Indians/Native Americans (APC: 11.7%, 10.8%, 18.0%, all p <0.05), with similar but less critical findings for NAFLD, whereas rates were steady for non-Hispanic Asians throughout 2010-2021 (APC: 4.9%). The ASMR rise for ALD was particularly severe for the 25-44 age group (APC: 34.6%, vs. 13.7% and 12.6% for 45-64 and ≥65, all p <0.01), which were also all higher than pre-COVID-19 rates (all p <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

ASMRs for ALD and NAFLD increased at an alarming rate during the COVID-19 pandemic with the largest disparities among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The pandemic has led to an increase of deaths directly and indirectly related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. As shown in this study, age-standardised mortality rates for alcohol-associated liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease substantially increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and far exceeded expected levels predicted from past trends, especially among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations. However, much of this increase was not directly related to COVID-19. Therefore, for the ongoing pandemic as well as its recovery phase, adherence to regular monitoring and care for people with chronic liver disease should be prioritised and awareness should be raised among patients, care providers, healthcare systems, and public health policy makers.

Sustained virologic response to direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C and hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The effect of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on the response to interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection remains unclear. Using a systematic review and meta-analysis approach, we aimed to investigate the effect of DAA therapy on sustained virologic response (SVR) among patients with CHC and either active, inactive or no HCC.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from 1/1/2013 to 9/24/2018. The pooled SVR rates were computed using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models.

RESULTS

We included 49 studies from 15 countries, comprised of 3,341 patients with HCC and 35,701 without HCC. Overall, the pooled SVR was lower in patients with HCC than in those without HCC (89.6%, 95% CI 86.8-92.1%, I2 = 79.1% vs. 93.3%, 95% CI 91.9-94.7%, I2 = 95.0%, p = 0.0012), translating to a 4.8% (95% CI 0.2-7.4%) SVR reduction by meta-regression analysis. The largest SVR reduction (18.8%) occurred in patients with active/residual HCC vs. inactive/ablated HCC (SVR 73.1% vs. 92.6%, p = 0.002). Meanwhile, patients with HCC who received a prior liver transplant had higher SVR rates than those who did not (p <0.001). Regarding specific DAA regimens, patients with HCC treated with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir had lower SVR rates than patients without HCC (92.6%, n = 884 vs. 97.8%, n = 13,141, p = 0.026), but heterogeneity was high (I2 = 84.7%, p <0.001). The SVR rate was similar in patients with/without HCC who were treated with ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir ± dasabuvir (n = 101) (97.2% vs. 94.8%, p = 0.79), or daclatasvir/asunaprevir (91.7% vs. 89.8%, p = 0.66).

CONCLUSION

Overall, SVR rates were lower in patients with HCC, especially with active HCC, compared to those without HCC, though heterogeneity was high. Continued efforts are needed to aggressively screen, diagnose, and treat HCC to ensure higher CHC cure rates.

LAY SUMMARY

There are now medications (direct-acting antivirals or "DAAs") that can "cure" hepatitis C virus, but patients with hepatitis C and liver cancer may be less likely to achieve cure than those without liver cancer. However, patients with liver cancer are also more likely to have advanced liver disease and risk factors that can decrease cure rates, so better controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Epigenetic mechanism involved in the HBV/HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma tumorigenesis

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were known to be risk factors for HCC, they were suspected to promote its development by eliciting epigenetic changes. However, the precise gene targets and underlying mechanisms have not been elucidated. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression has emerged as a fundamental aspect of cancer development and progression. The molecular mechanisms of carcinogenesis in hepatocellular carcinoma involve a complex interplay of both genetic and epigenetic factors. DNA methylation, post-translational modifications of histone proteins, chromatin remodeling, and noncoding RNAs are four major types of mechanistic layers in the field of epigenetics. HBV infection could affect methylation on p16(INK4A), GSTP1, CDH1(E-cadherin), RASSF1A, p21(WAF1/CIP1) genes, which may play important roles in the development of HCC. HCV infection was related to aberrant methylation on SOCS-1, Gadd45β, MGMT, STAT1 and APC. Other epigenetic alterations included histone proteins, chromatin remodeling, and noncoding RNAs were described in literature. Uncovering the epigenetic alterations of HBV/HCV-induced HCC carcinogenesis could highlight a new strategy for deciphering the mechanism of HCC tumorigenesis and development, as well as a potential diagnostic advantage.

Evaluation of Trends in Alcohol Use Disorder-Related Mortality in the US Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This cross-sectional study uses US vital statistics data to evaluate alcohol use disorder–related mortality rates from 2012 to 2021, with a focus on trends during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Association of Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy With Liver and Nonliver Complications and Long-term Mortality in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C

IMPORTANCE

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and its complications are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. However, large-scale data analysis of the long-term liver and nonliver effects of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment has been limited.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of hepatitis C virus elimination through DAA treatment with the risk of liver and nonliver morbidity and mortality during long-term follow-up among a large nationwide cohort of insured patients with CHC in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 245 596 adult patients with CHC using data from the Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database, 2010 to 2021. Of the total cohort, 40 654 patients had received 1 or more prescriptions for DAA medication (without interferon), and 204 942 patients were untreated.

EXPOSURE

Treatment with a DAA.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver decompensation, relevant nonliver events (nonliver cancer, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease), and overall mortality.

RESULTS

The DAA-treated cohort (vs untreated) were older (mean [SD] age, 59.9 [10.8] vs 58.5 [13.0] years; P < .001); more likely to be male (25 060 [62%] vs 119 727 [58%] men; P < .001) and White (23 937 [59%] vs 115 973 [57%]; P < .001) individuals; and more likely to have diabetes (10 680 [26%] vs 52 091 [25%]; P < .001) or cirrhosis (17 971 [44%] vs 60 094 [29%]; P < .001). Comparing DAA-treated with untreated patients, the incidence (per 1000 person-years) of liver outcomes (eg, decompensation, 28.2 [95% CI, 27.0-29.4] vs 40.8 [95% CI, 40.1-41.5]; P < .001, and HCC in compensated cirrhosis, 20.1 [95% CI, 18.4-21.9] vs 41.8 [95% CI, 40.3-43.3]; P < .001) and nonliver outcomes (eg, diabetes, 30.2 [95% CI, 35.4-37.7] vs 37.2 [95% CI, 36.6-37.9]; P < .001; and chronic kidney disease, 31.1 [95% CI, 29.9-32.2] vs 34.1 [95% CI, 33.5-34.7]; P < .001) were significantly lower in treated patients. The all-cause mortality rates per 1000 person-years were also significantly lower in DAA-treated compared with untreated patients (mortality, 36.5 [95% CI, 35.4-37.7] vs 64.7 [95% CI, 63.9-65.4]; P < .001). In multivariable regression analysis, DAA treatment was independently associated with a significant decrease in the risk of liver (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for HCC, 0.73; decompensation, 0.36), nonliver (aHR for diabetes, 0.74; chronic kidney disease, 0.81; cardiovascular disease, 0.90; nonliver cancer, 0.89), and mortality outcomes (aHR, 0.43).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this retrospective cohort study indicate that DAA treatment for insured patients with CHC was associated with improved liver- and nonliver outcomes, and ultimately, with long-term overall survival.

Tenofovir Alafenamide to Prevent Perinatal Hepatitis B Transmission: A Multicenter, Prospective, Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Few safety and effectiveness results have been published regarding the administration of tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) during pregnancy for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV).

METHODS

In this multicenter prospective observational study, pregnant women with HBV DNA levels higher than 200 000 IU/mL who received TAF or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) from gestational weeks 24-35 to delivery were 1:1 enrolled and followed until postpartum month 6. Infants received immunoprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was the safety of mothers and infants. The secondary endpoint was the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive rate at 7 months for infants.

RESULTS

In total, 116 and 116 mothers were enrolled, and 117 and 116 infants were born, in the TAF and TDF groups, respectively. TAF was well tolerated during a mean treatment duration of 11.0 weeks. The most common maternal adverse event was nausea (19.0%). One (0.9%), 3 (2.6%), and 9 (7.8%) mothers had abnormal alanine aminotransferase levels at delivery and at postpartum months 3 and 6, respectively. The TDF group had safety profiles that were comparable to those of the TAF group. No infants had birth defects in either group. The infants' physical and neurological development at birth and at 7 months in the TAF group were comparable with those in the TDF group. The HBsAg positive rate was 0% at 7 months in all 233 infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Antiviral prophylaxis with TAF was determined to be generally safe for both mothers and infants and reduced the MTCT rate to 0%.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: effectiveness and tolerability of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral regimens for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 in routine clinical practice in Asia

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens have shown high efficacy and tolerability for patients with HCV genotype 1/1b (GT1/1b) in clinical trials. However, robust real-world evidence of interferon (IFN)-free DAA treatment for HCV GT1-infected patients in Asia is still lacking.

AIM

To systematically review and meta-analyse the effectiveness and tolerability of IFN-free DAA therapy for HCV GT1 infection in Asia.

METHODS

We included studies that enrolled adult patients with HCV GT1 infection in routine clinical practice in Asia, using IFN-free DAA regimens, and reported sustained virological response (SVR) after 12/24 weeks end-of-treatment by 31 May 2017. The pooled SVR rates were computed with a random-effects model. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression as previously registered in PROSPERO were performed to determine how pre-planned variables might have affected the pooled estimates.

RESULTS

We included 41 studies from eight countries and regions, comprising of 8574 individuals. The pooled SVR rates for GT1 were 89.9% (95% CI 88.6-91.1, I2  = 55.1%) with daclatasvir/asunaprevir (DCV/ASV) and 98.1% (95% CI 97.0-99.0, I2  = 41.0%) with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir ± ribavirin (LDV/SOF ± RBV). Baseline cirrhosis but not prior treatment history and age, attenuated the effectiveness of both regimens. Baseline resistance associated substitutions (RASs) severely attenuated SVR of DCV/ASV (65.4% vs 94.3%, P < 0.001) and only minimally with LDV/SOF ± RBV (94.5% vs 99.2%, P = 0.003). Patients with renal dysfunction treated with DCV/ASV showed a higher SVR rate (93.9% vs 89.8%, P = 0.046). Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) LDV/SOF ± RBV achieved a lower SVR than those without HCC (94.1% vs 98.7%, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

All oral DAA treatment of HCV GT1 resulted in high cure rates in Asian patients in routine clinical practice setting including elderly patients and those with end-stage renal disease.

Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China.

METHODS

According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People's Republic of China during January 10-February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies.

RESULTS

The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067-87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16-6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350-61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567-2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.

Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Child-Pugh Class B Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

IMPORTANCE

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are increasingly used in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, data on ICI therapy in patients with advanced HCC and impaired liver function are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the efficacy and safety of ICI treatment for advanced HCC with Child-Pugh B liver function.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched for relevant studies from inception through June 15, 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials, cohort studies, or single-group studies that investigated the efficacy or safety of ICI therapy for Child-Pugh B advanced HCC were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guideline was followed to extract data. A random-effects model was adopted if the heterogeneity was significant (I2 > 50%); otherwise, a fixed-effect model was used.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The objective response rate (ORR) and overall survival (OS) were considered to be the primary efficacy outcomes of ICI treatment for Child-Pugh B advanced HCC, and the incidence of treatment-related adverse events (trAEs) was set as the primary measure for the safety outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 22 studies including 699 patients with Child-Pugh B and 2114 with Child-Pugh A advanced HCC comprised the analytic sample (median age range, 53-73 years). Upon pooled analysis, patients treated with ICIs in the Child-Pugh B group had an ORR of 14% (95% CI, 11%-17%) and disease control rate (DCR) of 46% (95% CI, 36%-56%), with a median OS of 5.49 (95% CI, 3.57-7.42) months and median progression-free survival of 2.68 (95% CI, 1.85-3.52) months. The rate of any grade trAEs in the Child-Pugh B group was 40% (95% CI, 34%-47%) and of grade 3 or higher trAEs was 12% (95% CI, 6%-23%). Compared with the Child-Pugh A group, the ORR (odds ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43-0.81; P < .001) and DCR (odds ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.50-0.81; P < .001) were lower in the Child-Pugh B group. Child-Pugh B was independently associated with worse OS in patients with advanced HCC treated with ICIs (hazard ratio, 2.72 [95% CI, 2.34-3.16]; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.81-2.99]). However, ICIs were not associated with increased trAEs in the Child-Pugh B group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that although the safety of ICI treatment was comparable between patients with HCC with vs without advanced liver disease and the treatment resulted in a significant number of radiologic responses, survival outcomes are still inferior in patients with worse liver function. More study is needed to determine the effectiveness of ICI treatment in this population.

Global incidence of adverse clinical events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with a multitude of adverse outcomes. We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of NAFLD-related adverse events.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults with NAFLD to evaluate the pooled incidence of adverse events.

RESULTS

19,406 articles were screened, 409 full-text articles reviewed, and 79 eligible studies (1,377,466 persons) were included. Mean age was 51.47 years and body mass index 28.90 kg/m2. Baseline comorbidities included metabolic syndrome (41.73%), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (16.83%), cirrhosis (21.97%), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (58.85%). Incidence rate per 1,000 person-years for mortality included: all-cause (14.6), CVD-related (4.53), non-liver cancer-related (4.53), and liver-related (3.10). Incidence for liver-related events included overall (24.3), fibrosis progression (49.0), cirrhosis (10.9), liver transplant (12.0), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (3.39). Incidence for non-liver events included metabolic syndrome (25.4), hypertension (25.8), dyslipidemia (26.4), diabetes (19.0), CVD (24.77), renal impairment (30.3), depression/anxiety (29.1), and non-liver cancer (10.5). Biopsy-proven NASH had higher incidence of HCC (P=0.043) compared to non-NASH. Higher rates of CVD and mortality were observed in North America and Europe, hypertension and non-liver cancer in North America, and HCC in Western Pacific/Southeast Asia (P<0.05). No significant differences were observed by sex. Time-period analyses showed decreasing rates of cardiovascular and non-liver cancer mortality and increasing rates of decompensated cirrhosis (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

People with NAFLD have high incidence of liver and non-liver adverse clinical events, varying by NASH, geographic region, and time-period, but not sex.

Isothermal nucleic acid amplification technology for rapid detection of virus

While the research field and industrial market of in vitro diagnosis (IVD) thrived during and post the COVID-19 pandemic, the development of isothermal nucleic acid amplification test (INAAT) based rapid diagnosis was engendered in a global wised large measure as a problem-solving exercise. This review systematically analyzed the recent advances of INAAT strategies with practical case for the real-world scenario virus detection applications. With the qualities that make INAAT systems useful for making diagnosis relevant decisions, the key performance indicators and the cost-effectiveness of enzyme-assisted methods and enzyme-free methods were compared. The modularity of nucleic acid amplification reactions that can lead to thresholding signal amplifications using INAAT reagents and their methodology design were examined, alongside the potential application with rapid test platform/device integration. Given that clinical practitioners are, by and large, unaware of many the isothermal nucleic acid test advances. This review could bridge the arcane research field of different INAAT systems and signal output modalities with end-users in clinic when choosing suitable test kits and/or methods for rapid virus detection.

A general-purpose Nanohybrid fabricated by Polymeric Au(I)-peptide precursor to wake the function of Peptide Therapeutics

Peptide-derived nanocomposites have been exhibiting fascinating biological advantages, including but not limited to excellent biocompatibility, biological degradation, high targetability and subsequent potent therapeutic efficacy. While some successes have been achieved in the nanoengineering of peptide-based architectures with defined dimensions and medical functions, enormous challenges remain about clinical nano-pharmaceutics of peptides, especially those modulating intracellular protein-protein interactions (PPIs). Methods: We developed a general method to translate intracellular-PPI-targeted peptides into a bioavailable peptide-auric spheroidal nanohybrid (SNH), for which polymeric peptide-Auric precursors [Au1+-S-peptide]n are in-situ reduced on the surface of gold nanoseeds via a simple and mild reaction. As proofs of concept, three cytomembrane-impenetrable peptides with different physicochemical properties were successfully engineered into stable and tumor-specific SNH respectively. Results: To highlight the advantage of SNH, PMI, a hydrophobic and enzyme-intolerant peptide capable of p53 restoration, was selected to challenge the power of SNH in a colon tumor xenografts model. PMI-Au SNH in vivo suppressed tumor growth potently after three administrations: intravenous injection, intraperitoneal injection and gastric perfusion, and maintained a favorable therapeutic safety. Conclusion: This therapeutically feasible strategy of peptide nanoengineering will allow us to fabricate a series of nanomedicines to modulate carcinogenic PPIs that hide and multiply inside cells, and in all likelihood reinvigorate the development of peptide drug against wide varieties of human diseases.

Seasonality of cellulitis: evidence from Google Trends

INTRODUCTION

According to our clinical experience, cellulitis is common in summer; however, very few studies have mentioned this trend.

METHODS

Using Google Trends, we analyzed the monthly data of Google searches for "cellulitis" from 31 countries on 6 continents.

RESULTS

Seasonality explained 34%-92% of the variability in search volume, with peaks occurring in summer months.

CONCLUSION

The analyses offered new insights into the epidemiology of cellulitis on national and international scales. Clinical data are needed to validate the Internet search data.

Excess risk for acute myocardial infarction mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a detrimental impact on the healthcare system. Our study armed to assess the extent and the disparity in excess acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-associated mortality during the pandemic, through the recent Omicron outbreak. Using data from the CDC's National Vital Statistics System, we identified 1 522 669 AMI-associated deaths occurring between 4/1/2012 and 3/31/2022. Accounting for seasonality, we compared age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for AMI-associated deaths between prepandemic and pandemic periods, including observed versus predicted ASMR, and examined temporal trends by demographic groups and region. Before the pandemic, AMI-associated mortality rates decreased across all subgroups. These trends reversed during the pandemic, with significant rises seen for the youngest-aged females and males even through the most recent period of the Omicron surge (10/2021-3/2022). The SAPC in the youngest and middle-age group in AMI-associated mortality increased by 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6%-9.1%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.1%-6.8%), respectively. The excess death, defined as the difference between the observed and the predicted mortality rates, was most pronounced for the youngest (25-44 years) aged decedents, ranging from 23% to 34% for the youngest compared to 13%-18% for the oldest age groups. The trend of mortality suggests that age and sex disparities have persisted even through the recent Omicron surge, with excess AMI-associated mortality being most pronounced in younger-aged adults.

Clinical course and treatment efficacy of COVID-19 near Hubei Province, China: A multicentre, retrospective study

Currently, COVID-19 has been reported in nearly all countries globally. To date, little is known about the viral shedding duration, clinical course and treatment efficacy of COVID-19 near Hubei Province, China. This multicentre, retrospective study was performed in 12 hospitals in Henan and Shaanxi Provinces from 20 January to 8 February 2020. Clinical outcomes were followed up until 26 March 2020. The viral shedding duration, full clinical course and treatment efficacy were analysed in different subgroups of patients. A total of 149 COVID-19 patients were enrolled. The median age was 42 years, and 61.1% (91) were males. Of them, 133 (89.3%) had fever, 131 of 144 (91%) had pneumonia, 27 (18.1%) required intensive care unit (ICU) management, 3 (2%) were pregnant, and 3 (2%) died. Two premature newborns were negative for SARS-CoV-2. In total, the median SARS-CoV-2 shedding period and clinical course were 12 (IQR: 9-17; mean: 13.4, 95% CI: 12.5, 14.2) and 20 (IQR: 16-24; mean: 21.2, 95% CI: 20.1, 22.3) days, respectively, and ICU patients had longer median viral shedding periods (21 [17-24] versus 11 [9-15]) and clinical courses (30 [22-33] vs. 19 [15.8-22]) than non-ICU patients (both p < .0001). SARS-CoV-2 clearances occurred at least 2 days before fatality in 3 non-survivors. Current treatment with any anti-viral agent or combination did not present the benefit of shortening viral shedding period and clinical course (all p > .05) in real-life settings. In conclusion, the viral shedding duration and clinical course in Henan and Shaanxi Provinces were shorter than those in Hubei Province, and current anti-viral therapies were ineffective for shortening viral shedding duration and clinical course in real-world settings. These findings expand our knowledge of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and may be helpful for management of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 worldwide. Further studies concerning effective anti-viral agents and vaccines are urgently needed.

Silencing of long noncoding RNA HOXD-AS1 inhibits proliferation, cell cycle progression, migration and invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma cells through MEK/ERK pathway

Accumulating findings reveal that long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) as crucial regulatory molecules serve vital functions in the progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to investigate the biological roles and mechanisms of lncRNA HOXD cluster antisense RNA 1 (HOXD-AS1) in HCC cells based on transcriptome analysis. The Cancer Genome Atlas data analysis and experimental validation showed that HOXD-AS1 was increased in HCC tissues/cell lines and positively relevant to histologic grade. The subcellular localization results indicated HOXD-AS1 was dispersed both in the nucleus as well as the cytoplasm of HCC cells. In vitro loss-of-function experiments revealed that silencing of HOXD-AS1 could dramatically suppress the proliferation, migration, and invasion, and induce S or/and G2/M phase cell cycle arrest as well as apoptosis of Bel-7402 and MHCC97H cells accompanying the changes in expression levels of cyclin B1, cyclin D1, BCL-2, BAX, and MMP2. In vivo assay also showed that HOXD-AS1 silencing could markedly reduce xenograft tumor volume and weight of HCC cells. Transcriptome and bioinformatic analysis indicated that a total of 1103 genes were significantly altered by HOXD-AS1 silencing, of which 132 genes exhibited a significant correlation with HOXD-AS1 expression in HCC tissues. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis revealed differentially expressed genes were remarkably enriched in several cancer-related biological processes (cell proliferation, cell cycle, apoptosis, migration, angiogenesis, and hypoxic response). Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis indicated that HOXD-AS1 has the potential to affect p53, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway, and Western blot results further validated that HOXD-AS1 silencing could inhibit the MEK/ERK pathway in Bel-7402 cells. Collectively, HOXD-AS1, as an oncogenic lncRNA, might exert crucial functions in HCC progression and serve as a potential diagnostic biomarker and therapeutic target for HCC.

Excess diabetes mellitus-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a critical risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection contributes to worsening glycemic control. The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted the delivery of care for patients with diabetes. We aimed to determine the trend of DM-related deaths during the pandemic.

METHODS

In this serial population-based study between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2021, mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from the National Vital Statistics System dataset was analyzed. Decedents with DM as the underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificate were defined as DM-related deaths. Excess deaths were estimated by comparing observed versus expected age-standardized mortality rates derived from mortality during 2006-2019 with linear and polynomial regression models. The trends of mortality were quantified with joinpoint regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and state.

FINDINGS

Among 4·25 million DM-related deaths during 2006-2021, there was a significant surge of more than 30% in mortality during the pandemic, from 106·8 (per 100,000 persons) in 2019 to 144·1 in 2020 and 148·3 in 2021. Adults aged 25-44 years had the most pronounced rise in mortality. Widened racial/ethnic disparity was observed, with Hispanics demonstrating the highest excess deaths (67·5%; 95% CI 60·9-74·7%), almost three times that of non-Hispanic whites (23·9%; 95% CI 21·2-26·7%).

INTERPRETATION

The United States saw an increase in DM-related mortality during the pandemic. The disproportionate rise in young adults and the widened racial/ethnic disparity warrant urgent preventative interventions from diverse stakeholders.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Effectivity of mesenchymal stem cells for bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis: a systematic review and implication for clinical application

Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) is a chronic, progressive, fibrotic interstitial disease of the lung with poor prognosis and without effective treatment currently. Data from previous coronavirus infections, such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, as well as current clinical evidence from the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), support that SARS-CoV-2 infection may lead to PF, seriously impacting patient prognosis and quality of life. Therefore, effective prevention and treatment of PF will improve patient prognosis and reduce the overall social and economic burdens. Stem cells, especially mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have many great advantages, including migration to damaged lung tissue and secretion of various paracrine factors, thereby regulating the permeability of endothelial and epithelial cells, reducing inflammatory response, promoting tissue repair and inhibiting bacterial growth. Clinical trials of MSCs for the treatment of acute lung injury, PF and severe and critically ill COVID-19 are ongoing. The purpose of this study is to systematically review preclinical studies, explored the effectiveness of MSCs in the treatment of bleomycin (BLM)-induced pulmonary fibrosis and analyze the potential mechanism, combined with clinical trials of current MSCs for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and COVID-19, so as to provide support for clinical research and transformation of MSCs. Searching PubMed and Embase (- 2021.4) identified a total of 36 preclinical studies of MSCs as treatment of BLM-induced acute lung injury and PF in rodent models. Most of the studies showed the MSCs treatment to reduce BLM-induced lung tissue inflammatory response, inflammatory cell infiltration, inflammatory cytokine expression, extracellular matrix production and collagen deposition, and to improve Ashcroft score. The results of present studies indicate that MSCs may serve as a potential therapeutic modality for the treatment of PF, including viral-induced PF and IPF.