Community-Based Cluster-Randomized Trial to Reduce Opioid Overdose Deaths

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based practices for reducing opioid-related overdose deaths include overdose education and naloxone distribution, the use of medications for the treatment of opioid use disorder, and prescription opioid safety. Data are needed on the effectiveness of a community-engaged intervention to reduce opioid-related overdose deaths through enhanced uptake of these practices.

METHODS

In this community-level, cluster-randomized trial, we randomly assigned 67 communities in Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio to receive the intervention (34 communities) or a wait-list control (33 communities), stratified according to state. The trial was conducted within the context of both the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic and a national surge in the number of fentanyl-related overdose deaths. The trial groups were balanced within states according to urban or rural classification, previous overdose rate, and community population. The primary outcome was the number of opioid-related overdose deaths among community adults.

RESULTS

During the comparison period from July 2021 through June 2022, the population-averaged rates of opioid-related overdose deaths were similar in the intervention group and the control group (47.2 deaths per 100,000 population vs. 51.7 per 100,000 population), for an adjusted rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.76 to 1.09; P = 0.30). The effect of the intervention on the rate of opioid-related overdose deaths did not differ appreciably according to state, urban or rural category, age, sex, or race or ethnic group. Intervention communities implemented 615 evidence-based practice strategies from the 806 strategies selected by communities (254 involving overdose education and naloxone distribution, 256 involving the use of medications for opioid use disorder, and 105 involving prescription opioid safety). Of these evidence-based practice strategies, only 235 (38%) had been initiated by the start of the comparison year.

CONCLUSIONS

In this 12-month multimodal intervention trial involving community coalitions in the deployment of evidence-based practices to reduce opioid overdose deaths, death rates were similar in the intervention group and the control group in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the fentanyl-related overdose epidemic. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; HCS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04111939.).

Geospatial Imprecision With Constraints for Precision Public Health: Algorithm Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

Location and environmental social determinants of health are increasingly important factors in both an individual's health and the monitoring of community-level public health issues.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to measure the extent to which location obfuscation techniques, designed to protect an individual's privacy, can unintentionally shift geographical coordinates into neighborhoods with significantly different socioeconomic demographics, which limits the precision of findings for public health stakeholders.

METHODS

Point obfuscation techniques intentionally blur geographic coordinates to conceal the original location. The pinwheel obfuscation method is an existing technique in which a point is moved along a pinwheel-like path given a randomly chosen angle and a maximum radius; we evaluate the impact of this technique using 2 data sets by comparing the demographics of the original point and the resulting shifted point by cross-referencing data from the United States Census Bureau.

RESULTS

Using poverty measures showed that points from regions of low poverty may be shifted to regions of high poverty; similarly, points in regions with high poverty may be shifted into regions of low poverty. We varied the maximum allowable obfuscation radius; the mean difference in poverty rate before and after obfuscation ranged from 6.5% to 11.7%. Additionally, obfuscation inadvertently caused false hot spots for deaths by suicide in Cook County, Illinois.

CONCLUSIONS

Privacy concerns require patient locations to be imprecise to protect against risk of identification; precision public health requires accuracy. We propose a modified obfuscation technique that is constrained to generate a new point within a specified census-designated region to preserve both privacy and analytical accuracy by avoiding demographic shifts.

Exploring the association between suicidal thoughts, self-injury, and GLP-1 receptor agonists in weight loss treatments: Insights from pharmacovigilance measures and unmasking analysis

INTRODUCTION

The study addresses concerns about potential psychiatric side effects of Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA).

AIM

The aim of this work was to analyse adverse drug reports (ADRs) from the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) using metformin and orlistat as comparators.

METHODS

Descriptive and pharmacovigilance disproportionality analyses was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 209,354 ADRs were reported, including 59,300 serious cases. Of those, a total of 5378 psychiatric disorder cases, including 383 'serious' cases related to selected ADRs were registered during 2005-2023. After unmasking, 271 cases where individual GLP-1 RA were implicated showing liraglutide (n = 90; Reported Odds Ratio (ROR) = 1.64), exenatide (n = 67; ROR = 0.80), semaglutide (n = 61; ROR = 2.03), dulaglutide (n = 45; ROR = 0.84), tirzepatide (n = 5; ROR = 1.76) and albiglutide (n = 2; ROR = 0.04). A greater association between these ADRs with metformin was observed, but not orlistat. With regards to selected preferred terms (PTs), 42 deaths including 13 completed suicides were recorded. Suicidal ideation was recorded in n = 236 cases for 6/7 GLP-1 RA (excluding lixisenatide).

DISCUSSION

Suicide/self-injury reports pertaining to semaglutide; tirzepatide; and liraglutide were characterised, although lower than metformin. It is postulated that rapid weight loss achieved with GLP-1 RA can trigger significant emotional, biological, and psychological responses, hence possibly impacting on suicidal and self-injurious ideations.

CONCLUSIONS

With the current pharmacovigilance approach, no causality link between suicidal ideation and use of any GLP-1 RA can be inferred. There is a need for further research and vigilance in GLP-1 RA prescribing, particularly in patients with co-existing psychiatric disorders.

Assessing the prediction of arterial CO2 from end tidal CO2 in adult blunt trauma patients

BACKGROUND

The control of PaCO2 in ventilated patients is known to be of particular importance in the management and prognosis of trauma patients. Although EtCO2 is often used as a continuous, non-invasive, surrogate marker for PaCO2 in ventilated trauma patients in the emergency department (ED), previous studies suggest a poor correlation in this cohort. However, previous data has predominantly been collected retrospectively, raising the possibility that the elapsed time between PaCO2 sampling and EtCO2 recording may contribute to the poor correlation. As such this study aimed to analyse the correlation of PaCO2 to EtCO2 in the ventilated blunt trauma patient presenting to the ED through contemporaneous sampling.

METHODS

This study was conducted as a prospective observational study analysing the near simultaneous recording of EtCO2 and Arterial Blood Gas sampling of ventilated adult trauma patients in the ED of a Level 1 trauma centre over a 12-month period. Data was analysed using linear regression and subgroup analysis by Injury Severity Score (ISS) and Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) of the Chest.

RESULTS

Linear regression of EtCO2 vs PaCO2 demonstrated a moderate correlation with r = 0.54 (p < 0.01, n = 51, 95 % CI 0.31-0.71). Subgroup analysis by ISS, revealed a stronger correlation in those with minor ISS (0-11) (r = 0.76, p < 0.01, n = 13, 95 % CI 0.36-0.92) compared to those more severely injured patients (ISS > 15) (r = 0.44, P < 0.01, n = 38, 95 % CI 0.14-0.67). Analysis by AIS Chest demonstrated similar correlation between patients without chest injuries (AIS 0) (r = 0.55, n = 29, p < 0.01, 95 % CI 0.23-0.76) and those with an AIS >1 (r = 0.51, n = 22, p = 0.02, 95 % CI 0.11-0.77). In patients with traumatic head injuries who had an EtCO2 between 30 and 39 mmHg, only 57 % had a measured PaCO2 within 5 mmHg.

CONCLUSIONS

As patients transition from minor to seriously injured, a decreasing strength of PaCO2 to EtCO2 correlation is observed, decreasing the reliability of EtCO2 as a surrogate marker of PaCO2 in this patient group. This inconsistency cannot be accounted for by the presence of chest injuries and worryingly is frequently seen in those with traumatic brain injuries.

Adherence to the Atrial fibrillation Better Care pathway and the risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents with atrial fibrillation: a retrospective data linkage study 2003-18

BACKGROUND

The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway is the gold-standard approach to atrial fibrillation (AF) management, but the effect of implementation on health outcomes in care home residents is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations between ABC pathway adherence and stroke, transient ischaemic attack, cardiovascular hospitalisation, major bleeding, mortality and a composite of all these outcomes in care home residents.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of older care home residents (≥65 years) in Wales with AF was conducted between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2018 using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Adherence to the ABC pathway was assessed at care home entry using pre-specified definitions. Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes according to ABC adherence.

RESULTS

From 14,493 residents (median [interquartile range] age 87.0 [82.6-91.2] years, 35.2% male) with AF, 5,531 (38.2%) were ABC pathway adherent. Pathway adherence was not significantly associated with risk of the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 [0.97-1.05]). There was a significant independent association observed between ABC pathway adherence and a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (0.70 [0.50-0.98]), but a higher risk of haemorrhagic stroke (1.59 [1.06-2.39]). ABC pathway adherence was not significantly associated with any other individual health outcomes examined.

CONCLUSION

An ABC adherent approach in care home residents was not consistently associated with improved health outcomes. Findings should be interpreted with caution owing to difficulties in defining pathway adherence using routinely collected data and an individualised approach is recommended.

Increased distance or time from a major trauma centre in South Australia is not associated with worse outcomes after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

OBJECTIVE

Considerations in traumatic brain injury (TBI) management include time to critical interventions and neurosurgical care, which can be influenced by the geographical location of injury. In Australia, these distances can be vast with varying degrees of first-responder experience. The present study aimed to evaluate the association that distance and/or time to a major trauma centre (MTC) had on patient outcomes with moderate to severe TBI.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the Royal Adelaide Hospital's (RAH) Trauma Registry over a 3-year period (1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020). All patients with a moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] ≤13 and abbreviated injury score head of ≥2) were included. The association of distance and time to the RAH and patient outcomes were compared by calculating the odds ratio utilising a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 378 patients were identified; of these, 226 met inclusion criteria and comprised our study cohort. Most patients were male (79%), injured in a major city (55%), with median age of 38 years old and median injury severity score (ISS) of 25. After controlling for age, ISS, ED GCS on arrival and pre-MTC intubation, increasing distance or time from injury site to the RAH was not shown to be associated with mortality or discharge destination in any of the models investigated.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis revealed that increasing distance or time from injury site to a MTC for patients with moderate to severe TBI was not significantly associated with adverse patient outcomes.

An open natural language processing (NLP) framework for EHR-based clinical research: a case demonstration using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)

Despite recent methodology advancements in clinical natural language processing (NLP), the adoption of clinical NLP models within the translational research community remains hindered by process heterogeneity and human factor variations. Concurrently, these factors also dramatically increase the difficulty in developing NLP models in multi-site settings, which is necessary for algorithm robustness and generalizability. Here, we reported on our experience developing an NLP solution for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) signs and symptom extraction in an open NLP framework from a subset of sites participating in the National COVID Cohort (N3C). We then empirically highlight the benefits of multi-site data for both symbolic and statistical methods, as well as highlight the need for federated annotation and evaluation to resolve several pitfalls encountered in the course of these efforts.

Is There a Risk for Semaglutide Misuse? Focus on the Food and Drug Administration's FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) Pharmacovigilance Dataset

Recent media reports commented about a possible issue of the misuse of antidiabetics related to molecules promoted as a weight-loss treatment in non-obese people. We evaluated here available pharmacovigilance misuse/abuse signals related to semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue, in comparison to other GLP-1 receptor agonists (albiglutide, dulaglutide, exenatide, liraglutide, lixisenatide, and tirzepatide) and the phentermine-topiramate combination. To acheieve that aim, we analyzed the Food and Drug Administration's FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) dataset, performing a descriptive analysis of adverse event reports (AERs) and calculating related pharmacovigilance measures, including the reporting odds ratio (ROR) and the proportional reporting ratio (PRR). During January 2018-December 2022, a total of 31,542 AERs involving the selected molecules were submitted to FAERS; most involved dulaglutide (n = 11,858; 37.6%) and semaglutide (n = 8249; 26.1%). In comparing semaglutide vs. the remaining molecules, the respective PRR values of the AERs 'drug abuse', 'drug withdrawal syndrome', 'prescription drug used without a prescription', and 'intentional product use issue' were 4.05, 4.05, 3.60, and 1.80 (all < 0.01). The same comparisons of semaglutide vs. the phentermine-topiramate combination were not associated with any significant differences. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study documenting the misuse/abuse potential of semaglutide in comparison with other GLP1 analogues and the phentermine-topiramate combination. The current findings will need to be confirmed by further empirical investigations to fully understand the safety profile of those molecules.

Stereoselective two-carbon ring expansion of allylic amines via electronic control of palladium-promoted equilibria

General methodologies enabling the two-carbon homologation of pyrrolidine and piperidine systems have yet to be developed. Herein we report that palladium-catalysed allylic amine rearrangements enable efficient two-carbon ring expansion of 2-alkenyl pyrrolidine and piperidines to their azepane and azocane counterparts. Conditions are mild, tolerant of a range of functional groups and the process can occur with high enantioretention. The products formed undergo a range of orthogonal transformations, making them ideal scaffolds for the creation of compound libraries.

Spatial access to buprenorphine-waivered prescribers in the HEALing communities study: Enhanced 2-step floating catchment area analyses in Massachusetts, Ohio, and Kentucky

INTRODUCTION

The opioid overdose epidemic continues to impact a large swath of the population in the US. Medications for opioid use disorders (MOUD) are an effective resource to combat the epidemic; however, there is limited research on MOUD treatment access that accounts for both supply of and demand for services. We aimed to examine access to buprenorphine prescribers in the HEALing Communities Study (HCS) Wave 2 communities in Massachusetts, Ohio, and Kentucky during 2021, and the association between buprenorphine access and opioid-related incidents, specifically fatal overdoses and opioid-related responses by emergency medical services (EMS).

METHODS

We calculated Enhanced 2-Step Floating Catchment Area (E2SFCA) accessibility indices for each state, as well as Wave 2 communities in each state, based on the location of providers (buprenorphine-waivered clinicians from the US Drug Enforcement Agency Active Registrants database), population-weighted centroids at the census block group level, and catchment areas defined by the state or community's average commute time. In advance of intervention initiation, we quantified the opioid-related risk environment of communities. We assessed gaps in services by using bivariate Local Moran's I analysis, incorporating accessibility indices and opioid-related incident data.

RESULTS

Massachusetts Wave 2 HCS communities had the highest rates of buprenorphine prescribers per 1000 patients (median: 165.8) compared to Kentucky (38.8) and Ohio (40.1). While urban centers in all three states had higher E2SFCA index scores compared to rural communities, we observed that suburban communities often had limited access. Through bivariate Local Moran's I analysis, we identified numerous locations with low buprenorphine access surrounded by high opioid-related incidents, particularly in communities that surrounded Boston, Massachusetts; Columbus, Ohio; and Louisville, Kentucky.

CONCLUSION

Rural communities demonstrated a great need for additional access to buprenorphine prescribers. However, policymakers should also direct attention toward suburban communities that have experienced significant increases in opioid-related incidents.

Clinical benefits and economic cost-savings of Remote Electrical Neuromodulation (REN) for migraine prevention

AIMS

Assess the clinical benefits and associated direct and indirect cost-savings from Remote Electrical Neuromodulation (REN) for migraine prevention.

METHODS

REN, a prescribed, wearable, FDA-cleared neuromodulation-device for the acute and/or treatment of migraine, recently demonstrated efficacy for migraine prevention when used every-other-day, in a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center study. Following baseline (4-weeks), subjects underwent treatment with REN (or placebo; 8-weeks), and electronically reported migraine symptoms and acute treatments daily. Therapeutic-gain was the between-groups difference (REN minus placebo) in change from baseline to the second month of intervention. Health-economics impact was derived as cost-savings associated with REN's clinical benefits.

RESULTS

Out of 248 subjects randomized (128 active, 120 placebo), 179 (95:84) qualified for modifiedintention-to-treat (mITT) analysis. Significant therapeutic gains favoring REN vs placebo were found (Tepper et al., 2023), including mean (±SD) reduction in number of acute medication days (3.4 ± 0.4 vs 1.2 ± 0.5; gain = 2.2; p = 0.001) and presenteeism days (2.7 ± 0.3 vs 1.1 ± 0.4; p = 0.001). Mean changes of provider visits (reduction of 0.09 ± 0.1 vs increase of 0.08 ± 0.2; p = 0.297), and reduction of absenteeism days (0.07 ± 0.1 vs 0.07 ± 0.2; p = 0.997) were not significant. Mean annual cost-saving for one patient using REN for migraine prevention estimated $10,000 (±$1,777) from reductions in these four clinical outcomes relative to baseline without REN treatment. Extrapolated to a hypothetical US commercial health-plan of one-million covered lives, assuming the national prevalence of migraine patients on preventive treatment, annual mean (±SE) cost-saving from using REN migraine prevention estimated $560.0 million (±$99.5 million) from reduction in direct and indirect metrics measured.

LIMITATIONS

Clinical and cost-savings benefits presented are conservative, assessed only from endpoints measured in the clinical trial. Moreover, some of the endpoints had only scarce or no occurrences during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Demonstrated significant and meaningful clinical, and cost-savings benefits for patients, health insurance systems, and employers, from utilizing REN for migraine prevention.

Achievement of the ESC recommendations for secondary prevention of cardiovascular risk factors in high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes: A real-world national cohort analysis

AIM

To assess compliance with European Society of Cardiology (ESC) secondary prevention recommendations in a nationwide contemporary population with diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary artery disease.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective observational study using linked health data in patients across Wales with DM undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (2012-2017). The follow-up was for one year. We analysed the clinical characteristics, medications, target levels for HbA1c, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and blood pressure against the ESC prevention guidelines.

RESULTS

Overall, 3478 patients with diabetes had available data at 1-year post-PCI. Only 43% had HbA1c levels <53 mmol/L, but 81% had blood pressure < 140/80 (current ESC targets). Prescribing frequency of the newer hypoglycaemic agents (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors) was suboptimal, with a higher rate in patients with HbA1c ≥53 mmol/mol. Only 51% & 27% of the patients had LDL-C levels <1.8 &1.4 mmol/L (2016 & 2019 guidelines recommendations respectively), and 55% & 34% had non-HDL-C levels <2.6 & 2.2 mmol/L (2016 & 2019 guidelines respectively). Of the uncontrolled LDL-C patients, 42% (2016 target) and 35% (2019 target) were prescribed high-intensity statins. Females were more likely to have LDL-C targets above the recommended level.

CONCLUSION

Achievement of ESC treatment goals in this very-high risk cohort for DM and hyperlipidaemia was far from optimal, with a low prescription rate of the guidelines-recommended therapy. Target goals for hypertension were met more frequently. An up-to-date analysis reflecting the current practice against the most recent guidelines is warranted.

Imaging in urethral stricture disease: an educational review of current techniques with a focus on MRI

Urethral stricture disease refers to narrowing of the urethral lumen obstructing the flow of urine. Urethral strictures can significantly impact daily life due to incontinence, incomplete emptying, hesitancy, and increased risk of urinary tract infections. Imaging is central to the evaluation of suspected urethral stricture, as assessment of stricture length and severity is crucial for guidance of surgical management. The currently employed modalities include radiography, chiefly retrograde urethrography (RUG) and voiding cystourethrography (VCUG); magnetic resonance urethrography (MRU); and sonourethrography (SUG). MRU has become a recent focus of research as it provides high spatial resolution, multiplanar capacity, and soft tissue type differentiation for evaluation of periurethral compartments and concurrent soft tissue defects. The protocol for MRU has evolved over the years to now include dynamic micturition imaging and image reconstruction options. In this review, we discuss each of the imaging modalities used in the diagnosis and evaluation of urethral stricture and provide an overview of literature on MRU over the last decade, including suggested indications that have not yet been incorporated into current guidelines. We delineate scenarios where special diagnostic imaging beyond radiography is beneficial, providing examples from our practice and description of our techniques for each modality.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESCRIBING THE EVOLUTION OF MEDICATION USE OVER TIME IN PEOPLE LIVING WITH DEMENTIA USING NETWORK ANALYSIS

Prescribing for community-dwelling older adults living with dementia is complex. Multiple medications may be used to manage symptoms associated with dementia and/or co-existing chronic conditions, and can lead to problematic polypharmacy. Our objective was to use network analysis, a data science method, to provide a comprehensive description of co-prescribed medications in persons with dementia and describe whether these patterns change over time. We created a population-based cohort of community-dwelling older adults (aged 67+ years) in Ontario, Canada, newly diagnosed with dementia (between April 2014 and January 2019), from health administrative data, and developed medication networks at one year prior to, at, and for up to five years following dementia diagnosis. Among 136,292 individuals newly diagnosed with dementia, the mean age was 82.2 years and 59% were female. The most common medication subclasses dispensed at diagnosis were primarily cardiovascular medications: statins (45.6%), proton pump inhibitors (27.3%), beta-blockers (27.0%), calcium blockers (25.1%), and ACE inhibitors (24.6%). Similar proportions of medication subclasses were found at five years after diagnosis, except cholinesterase inhibitors (34.0% at five years were dispensed cholinesterase inhibitors compared to 16.9% at diagnosis). The most frequent co-prescribed medication pairs at diagnosis included statins and beta-blockers (16.0%), proton pump inhibitors (16.0%), and ace inhibitors (15.4%), respectively. Co-prescription was similar at five years, but also included higher frequency of co-prescribing with cholinesterase inhibitors (e.g., 19.4% were prescribed cholinesterase inhibitors and statins). Network diagrams demonstrate the complexity of prescribing in this population and highlight concurrent prescribing which may require careful monitoring or deprescribing.

Prevalence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003-2018

OBJECTIVE

To determine atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence and temporal trends, and examine associations between AF and risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using anonymised linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank on CARE home residents in Wales with AF (SAIL CARE-AF) between 2003 and 2018. Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes with mortality as a competing risk. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of mortality.

RESULTS

There were 86,602 older care home residents (median age 86.0 years [interquartile range 80.8-90.6]) who entered a care home between 2003 and 2018. When the pre-care home entry data extraction was standardised, the overall prevalence of AF was 17.4% (95% confidence interval 17.1-17.8) between 2010 and 2018. There was no significant change in the age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF from 16.8% (15.9-17.9) in 2010 to 17.0% (16.1-18.0) in 2018. Residents with AF had a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.27 [1.17-1.37], P < 0.001), all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.14 [1.11-1.17], P < 0.001), ischaemic stroke (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.55 [1.36-1.76], P < 0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.28 [1.22-1.34], P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older care home residents with AF have an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, even when higher mortality rates and other confounders are accounted for. This re-iterates the need for appropriate oral anticoagulant prescription and optimal management of cardiovascular co-morbidities, irrespective of frailty status and predicted life expectancy.

Problems and Mysteries of the Many Languages of Thought

"What is the structure of thought?" is as central a question as any in cognitive science. A classic answer to this question has appealed to a Language of Thought (LoT). We point to emerging research from disparate branches of the field that supports the LoT hypothesis, but also uncovers diversity in LoTs across cognitive systems, stages of development, and species. Our letter formulates open research questions for cognitive science concerning the varieties of rules and representations that underwrite various LoT-based systems and how these variations can help researchers taxonomize cognitive systems.

Factors associated with prescription of oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003–2018

Background

Prescription of oral anticoagulants (OAC) is paramount for stroke prevention in people with atrial fibrillation (AF), but treatment decisions in older care home residents are complicated by frailty, multi-morbidity and heightened stroke and bleeding risk. There is a paucity of data on factors influencing the decision to prescribe OAC in this high-risk population who are under-represented in research studies.

Purpose

To explore the factors associated with OAC prescription for care home residents aged ≥65 years with AF.

Methods

Nationwide retrospective cohort study of people aged ≥65 years entering a care home in Wales between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2018, using anonymised individual-level electronic health record and administrative data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to explore the association between resident characteristics and OAC prescription or non-prescription.

Results

Between 2003 and 2018, 14,493 people with AF aged ≥65 years became new residents in care homes in Wales and 7,057 (48.7%) were prescribed OAC (32.7% in 2003 compared to 72.7% in 2018), Figure 1. Increasing age and prescription of antiplatelet therapy were associated with lower odds of OAC prescription (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96 per one year age increase [95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 0.96] and aOR 0.91 [0.84 to 0.98], respectively). Conversely, prior venous thromboembolism (aOR 4.06 [3.17 to 5.20]), advancing frailty (mild: aOR 4.61 [3.95 to 5.38]; moderate: aOR 6.69 [5.74 to 7.80]; severe: aOR 8.42 [7.16 to 9.90]) and year of care home entry in the post-non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) era from 2011 onwards (aOR 1.91 [1.76 to 2.06]) were associated with higher odds of OAC prescription, Figure 2.

Conclusions

The proportion of care home residents prescribed OAC therapy has increased over time with the introduction of NOACs in 2011, but OAC prescription rates are still sub-optimal. Although there is an expected rise in OAC prescribing for increasingly frail people, further work is needed to investigate the interaction with deprivation and other socio-economic and demographic factors to assess potential inequalities in prescribing across these groups. Targeted educational tools for clinicians are needed to address barriers to OAC prescription for AF, such as older age and separate indications for antiplatelet therapy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Prevalence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003–2018

Background

Older care home residents are a high-risk group of people with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are under-represented in clinical trials. Improved understanding of AF epidemiology and management in this population is paramount for health and social care organisations to strategically plan services.

Purpose

To determine the trends in AF prevalence and compare adverse health outcomes in older care home residents aged ≥65 years with AF compared to those without AF.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of people entering a care home between 2003–2018 using nationwide, population-scale anonymised health and administrative data, provisioned from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (1 January 2000–31st December 2018). Direct standardisation was used to calculate AF prevalence by year of care entry (2010–2018). Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of adverse health outcomes.

Results

Between 2003 and 2018, 86,602 people aged ≥65 years became new residents in care homes in Wales. Residents with AF (n=14,493) had a significantly higher risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) of cardiovascular (aHR 1.27 [1.17 to 1.37], p&lt;0.001) and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.14 [1.11 to 1.17], p&lt;0.001), Figure 1. The risk (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 95% CI) of ischaemic stroke (adjusted sHR 1.55 [1.36 to 1.76], p&lt;0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sHR 1.28 [1.22 to 1.34], p&lt;0.001) was also higher in residents with AF, even when mortality was considered a competing event, Figure 1. There was no significant change in age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF between 2010 and 2018, 16.79% (95% CI 15.85 to 17.94) and 17.02% (95% CI 16.05 to 17.98), respectively (absolute change 2010–2018: 0.06% [95% CI: −1.38 to 1.50], p=0.93), Figure 2.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates unique data on the epidemiology of AF and associated outcomes in older care home residents. Whilst the prevalence of AF remained stable between 2010–2018, residents with AF had significantly higher risk of adverse health events. Treatment of AF in accordance with guidelines is critical in this population to optimise management and reduce adverse health outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery according to suture technique: Hughes Abdominal Repair Randomized Trial (HART)

BACKGROUND

Incisional hernias cause morbidity and may require further surgery. HART (Hughes Abdominal Repair Trial) assessed the effect of an alternative suture method on the incidence of incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

A pragmatic multicentre single-blind RCT allocated patients undergoing midline incision for colorectal cancer to either Hughes closure (double far-near-near-far sutures of 1 nylon suture at 2-cm intervals along the fascia combined with conventional mass closure) or the surgeon's standard closure. The primary outcome was the incidence of incisional hernia at 1 year assessed by clinical examination. An intention-to-treat analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Between August 2014 and February 2018, 802 patients were randomized to either Hughes closure (401) or the standard mass closure group (401). At 1 year after surgery, 672 patients (83.7 per cent) were included in the primary outcome analysis; 50 of 339 patients (14.8 per cent) in the Hughes group and 57 of 333 (17.1 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.84, 95 per cent c.i. 0.55 to 1.27; P = 0.402). At 2 years, 78 patients (28.7 per cent) in the Hughes repair group and 84 (31.8 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.86, 0.59 to 1.25; P = 0.429). Adverse events were similar in the two groups, apart from the rate of surgical-site infection, which was higher in the Hughes group (13.2 versus 7.7 per cent; OR 1.82, 1.14 to 2.91; P = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of incisional hernia after colorectal cancer surgery is high. There was no statistical difference in incidence between Hughes closure and mass closure at 1 or 2 years.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN25616490 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

Stroke in Older Adults Living in Care Homes: Results From a National Data Linkage Study in Wales

OBJECTIVES

To determine the proportion of older people moving to care homes with a recent stroke, incidence of stroke after moving to a care home, mortality following stroke, and secondary stroke prevention management in older care home residents.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using population-scale individual-level linked data sources between 2003 and 2018 in the Secure Anonymized Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

People age ≥65 years residing in long-term care homes in Wales.

METHODS

Competing risk models and logistic regression models were used to examine the association between prior stroke, incident stroke, and mortality following stroke.

RESULTS

Of 86,602 individuals, 7.0% (n = 6055) experienced a stroke in the 12 months prior to care home entry. The incidence of stroke within 12 months after entry to a care home was 26.2 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 25.0, 27.5]. Previous stroke was associated with higher risk of incident stroke after moving to a care home (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.83, 95% CI 1.57, 2.13) and 30-day mortality following stroke (odds ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.59, 2.98). Severe frailty was not significantly associated with risk of stroke or 30-day mortality following stroke. Secondary stroke prevention included statins (50.5%), antiplatelets (61.2%), anticoagulants (52.4% of those with atrial fibrillation), and antihypertensives (92.1% of those with hypertension).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

At the time of care home entry, individuals with history of stroke in the previous 12 months are at a higher risk of incident stroke and mortality following an incident stroke. These individuals are frequently not prescribed medications for secondary stroke prevention. Further evidence is needed to determine the optimal care pathways for older people living in long-term care homes with history of stroke.

Is Reddit a reliable source for information on erectile dysfunction treatment?

Patients may turn to social media websites, such as Reddit, for information on erectile dysfunction prior to seeking care from a physician. We sought to identify, characterize, and assess the quality of the erectile dysfunction treatments discussed on the highly influential Reddit website. We assessed 2634 comments from two subreddits, r/AskMen and r/ErectileDysfunction, for positive and negative statements regarding treatments for erectile dysfunction. A total of 45 unique treatments were discussed and consisted of changes in sexual behavior (30%), lifestyle changes (29%), medical interventions (23%), talking with a partner about ED (10%), and use of supplements (8%). Only 24.4% of all treatments discussed are in line with current American Urological Association guidelines. Only 43.8% of all positive statements made endorsed a guidelines-based treatment, indicating a high rate of self-proclaimed success with alternative therapies. Our results indicate that there is active discussion of erectile dysfunction treatment on Reddit with a wide range of therapies recommended, however, the majority of the recommendations are not supported by strong clinical evidence.