Association of free-living diet composition with plasma lipoprotein(a) levels in healthy adults

BACKGROUND

Lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] is an apoB100-containing lipoprotein with high levels being positively associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Lp(a) levels are genetically determined. However, previous studies report a negative association between Lp(a) and saturated fatty acid intake. Currently, apoB100 lowering therapies are used to lower Lp(a) levels, and apheresis therapy is FDA approved for patients with extreme elevations of Lp(a). The current study analyzed the association of free-living diet components with plasma Lp(a) levels.

METHODS

Dietary composition data was collected during screening visits for enrollment in previously completed lipid and lipoprotein metabolism studies at Columbia University Irving Medical Center via a standardized protocol by registered dietitians using 24 hour recalls. Data were analyzed with the Nutrition Data System for Research (Version 2018). Diet quality was calculated using the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) score. Fasting plasma Lp(a) levels were measured via an isoform-independent ELISA and apo(a) isoforms were measured using gel electrophoresis.

RESULTS

We enrolled 28 subjects [Black (n = 18); Hispanic (n = 7); White (n = 3)]. The mean age was 48.3 ± 12.5 years with 17 males. Median level of Lp(a) was 79.9 nmol/L (34.4-146.0) and it was negatively associated with absolute (grams/day) and relative (percent of total calories) intake of dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA) (R = -0.43, P = 0.02, SFA …(% CAL): R = -0.38, P = 0.04), palmitic acid intake (R = -0.38, P = 0.05), and stearic acid intake (R = -0.40, P = 0.03). Analyses of associations with HEI score when stratified based on Lp(a) levels > or ≤ 100 nmol/L revealed no significant associations with any of the constituent factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Using 24 hour recall, we confirm previous findings that Lp(a) levels are negatively associated with dietary saturated fatty acid intake. Additionally, Lp(a) levels are not related to diet quality, as assessed by the HEI score. The mechanisms underlying the relationship of SFA with Lp(a) require further investigation.

TM6SF2 Determines Both the Degree of Lipidation and the Number of VLDL Particles Secreted by the Liver

In 2014, exome-wide studies identified a glutamine176lysine (p.E167K) substitution in a protein of unknown function named transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2). The p.E167K variant was associated with increased hepatic fat content and reduced levels of plasma TG and LDL cholesterol. Over the next several years, additional studies defined the role of TM6SF2, which resides in the ER and the ER-Golgi interface, in the lipidation of nascent VLDL to generate mature, more TG-rich VLDL. Consistent results from cells and rodents indicated that the secretion of TG was reduced in the p.E167K variant or when hepatic TM6SF2 was deleted. However, data for secretion of APOB was inconsistent, either reduced or increased secretion was observed. A recent study of people homozygous for the variant demonstrated reduced in vivo secretion of large, TG-rich VLDL1 into plasma; both TG and APOB secretion were reduced. Here we present new results demonstrating increased secretion of VLDL APOB with no change in TG secretion in p.E167K homozygous individuals from the Lancaster Amish community compared to their wild-type siblings. Our in vivo kinetic tracer results are supported by in vitro experiments in HepG2 and McA cells with knock-down or Crispr-deletions of TM6SF2, respectively. We offer a model to potentially explain all of the prior data and our new results.

Relationship of apolipoprotein(a) isoform size with clearance and production of lipoprotein(a) in a diverse cohort

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] has two main proteins, apoB100 and apo(a). High levels of Lp(a) confer an increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Most people have two circulating isoforms of apo(a) differing in their molecular mass, determined by the number of Kringle IV Type 2 repeats. Previous studies report a strong inverse relationship between Lp(a) levels and apo(a) isoform sizes. The roles of Lp(a) production and fractional clearance and how ancestry affects this relationship remain incompletely defined. We therefore examined the relationships of apo(a) size with Lp(a) levels and both apo(a) fractional clearance rates (FCR) and production rates (PR) in 32 individuals not on lipid-lowering treatment. We determined plasma Lp(a) levels and apo(a) isoform sizes, and used the relative expression of the two isoforms to calculate a "weighted isoform size" (wIS). Stable isotope studies were performed, using D3-leucine, to determine the apo(a) FCR and PR. As expected, plasma Lp(a) concentrations were inversely correlated with wIS (R2 = 0.27; P = 0.002). The wIS had a modest positive correlation with apo(a) FCR (R2 = 0.10, P = 0.08), and a negative correlation with apo(a) PR (R2 = 0.11; P = 0.06). The relationship between wIS and PR became significant when we controlled for self-reported race and ethnicity (SRRE) (R2 = 0.24, P = 0.03); controlling for SRRE did not affect the relationship between wIS and FCR. Apo(a) wIS plays a role in both FCR and PR; however, adjusting for SRRE strengthens the correlation between wIS and PR, suggesting an effect of ancestry.

Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Online Examinations in Covid-19

In this paper, the authors build a model that predicts the grade point from a collection of independent variables including student characteristics and exam marks achieved in four marketing management courses using data from four courses. The data from four courses in marketing management, for an off-line class in a master’s in business management program taught in 2019 and the same set of four courses in marketing management taught to an on-line class in 2020 was taken. Although the number of students enrolled was almost equal, and the courses, despite being offered a year apart, were nearly comparable in structure and content, the teaching and assessment for 2019 was conducted offline, whereas it was conducted online in 2020. In the set of four courses offered in 2019 using the offline mode, the exam was proctored and offline but for the same courses offered in 2020, the final exam was also proctored but online. The authors predicted that if exams were taken without any misconduct, the prediction model would have the same explanatory power for all exams, and that if there was malpractice, the explanatory power would be lower. Their findings show that the two datasets are similar; there are variations in the independent variables that statistically and significantly predicted the Grade Point Average (GPA). The R-squared statistic suggests that the model for prediction is strong. Hence there is reason to believe that malpractice was taking place when the examinations were online, in spite of it being proctored. The goal of this paper is to provide teachers with practical ideas for administering proctored tests in their online courses.

Dynamics of nondegenerate vector solitons in a long-wave-short-wave resonance interaction system

In this paper, we study the dynamics of an interesting class of vector solitons in the long-wave-short-wave resonance interaction (LSRI) system. The model that we consider here describes the nonlinear interaction of long wave and two short waves and it generically appears in several physical settings. To derive this class of nondegenerate vector soliton solutions we adopt the Hirota bilinear method with the more general form of admissible seed solutions with nonidentical distinct propagation constants. We express the resultant fundamental as well as multisoliton solutions in a compact way using Gram-determinants. The general fundamental vector soliton solution possesses several interesting properties. For instance, the double-hump or a single-hump profile structure including a special flattop profile form results in when the soliton propagates in all the components with identical velocities. Interestingly, in the case of nonidentical velocities, the soliton number is increased to two in the long-wave component, while a single-humped soliton propagates in the two short-wave components. We establish through a detailed analysis that the nondegenerate multisolitons in contrast to the already known vector solitons (with identical wave numbers) can undergo three types of elastic collision scenarios: (i) shape-preserving, (ii) shape-altering, and (iii) a shape-changing collision, depending on the choice of the soliton parameters. Here, by shape-altering we mean that the structure of the nondegenerate soliton gets modified slightly during the collision process, whereas if the changes occur appreciably then we call such a collision as shape-changing collision. We distinguish each of the collision scenarios, by deriving a zero phase shift criterion with the help of phase constants. Very importantly, the shape-changing behavior of the nondegenerate vector solitons is observed in the long-wave mode also, along with corresponding changes in the short-wave modes, and this nonlinear phenomenon has not been observed in the already known vector solitons. In addition, we point out the coexistence of nondegenerate and degenerate solitons simultaneously along with the associated physical consequences. We also indicate the physical realizations of these general vector solitons in nonlinear optics, hydrodynamics, and Bose-Einstein condensates. Our results are generic and they will be useful in these physical systems and other closely related systems including plasma physics when the long-wave-short-wave resonance interaction is taken into account.

Bleb revision with bleborhexis and clear corneal lamellar patch graft for overhanging cystic bleb

Background:

Trabeculectomy is associated with several complications. One of the common complications with mitomycin assisted trabeculectomy is thin cystic bleb leading to bleb leak, hypotony and infections. Various technique of bleb repair and reconstruction have been described, such as conjunctival advancement, or scleral, pericardial or corneal patch graft.

Purpose:

To demonstrate bleb revision by bleborhexis and clear corneal lamellar patch graft for a patient with thin cystic leaking bleb leading to hypotony and decreased vision.

Synopsis:

This was a 75-year-old one-eyed lady, diagnosed with primary angle-closure glaucoma in both eyes with absent light perception in the left eye, had undergone a combined trabeculectomy and cataract surgery in the right eye 6 years ago. She presented with diminution of vision (6/18p), introacular pressure (IOP) of of 6 mmHg, thin cystic leaking overhanging bleb, and dysesthesia. Bleb repair by bleborhexis with lamellar corneal patch graft was performed. Bleborhexis is a technique in which the overhanging fibrosed thin cystic conjunctival bleb is peeled off the cornea smoothly to leave a uniform clear corneal surface. Clear cornea, uniform diffuse bleb, well-formed anterior chamber with and IOP of 15 mmHg was noted on the first post-operative day, with a vision of 6/12p. This procedure helped meticulous reconstruction of the bleb, early recovery of vision, maintanance of normotensive eye, and save the eye from potential infections.

Highlights:

Bleborhexis with lamellar corneal patch graft provides for an easy and a elegant surgical technique with minimal corneal tissue damage, faster healing and patient comfort. It could be the favored technique in patients with thin overhanging clebs.

Video link:

https://youtu.be/GeFYHWToueU

Medical weight management protects against weight gain during the COVID‐19 pandemic

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions and Relevance

Lowering of intraocular pressure after phacoemulsification in primary open-angle and angle-closure glaucoma: Correlation with lens thickness

Purpose:

To assess anterior chamber configuration changes during phacoemulsification in primary angle-closure suspect (PACS/PAC) and primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG).

Methods:

Prospective observational comparative study of anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) findings before and after phacoemulsification on three groups of patients (PACS/PAC, POAG, and controls). Data were collected over a period of 9 months. Main outcome measures included mean change in anterior chamber depth (ACD), angle opening distance (AOD), and trabecular iris space area (TISA).

Results:

153 patients (51 PACS/PAC, 51 POAG, and 51 controls) were included in the study. Change in all parameters (ACD, AOD at 500 um, and AOD at 750 um) between the groups demonstrated a greater change in PACS/PAC as compared to POAG and controls. AOD at 750 μm in the temporal quadrant, which has been considered to be having the highest correlation or best representation of the angle, increased in all groups after phacoemulsification (463.59 ± 10.99 vs. 656.27 ± 9.73 mm in PACS; 521.29 ± 16.36 vs. 674.37 ± 8.72 mm in POAG; 549.27 ± 12.40 vs. 702.82 ± 13.04 mm in controls, (P < 0.001). After phacoemulsification, intraocular pressure (IOP) decreased by 2.75 ± 1.17 mm Hg in PACS/PAC (P < 0.001), 2.14 ± 1.33 mm Hg in POAG and 1.90 ± 1.25 mm Hg in controls and it was statistically significant in the PACS group compared to control (P < 0.001).

Conclusion: Phacoemulsification with intraocular lens implantation is associated with increase in the ACD and angle parameters and a corresponding decrease in IOP. Findings were more pronounced in PACS/PAC suggesting early phacoemulsification may be a treatment option in this group.

A persistent plaque on the back of the hand

We report the case of a 75-year-old woman presenting with acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans affecting the right hand dorsum, developing after an insect bite sustained in Greece. Diagnosis was confirmed by serology, PCR and histopathological findings. The plaque resolved following a 3-week course of oral doxycycline.

Personalized Reminders for Immunization Using Short Messaging Systems to Improve Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Series Completion: Parallel-Group Randomized Trial

Background

Completion rates among adolescents who initiate the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine 3-dose series are low. SMS text message vaccine reminders are effective, but less is known about the best types for HPV series completion or the ability to assess and target vaccine decision-making stage.

Objective

The aim of this study is to compare the effectiveness of HPV vaccine series completion in minority adolescents who received precision and educational versus conventional SMS text message reminders.

Methods

Enrolled parents of adolescents aged 9-17 years who received the first HPV vaccine dose at 1 of the 4 academic-affiliated community health clinics in New York City were randomized 1:1 to 1 of the 2 parallel, unblinded arms: precision SMS text messages (which included stage-targeted educational information, next dose due date, and site-specific walk-in hours) or conventional SMS text messages without educational information. Randomization was stratified according to gender, age, and language. The primary outcome was series completion within 12 months. In post hoc analysis, enrollees were compared with concurrent nonenrollees and historical controls.

Results

Overall, 956 parents were enrolled in the study. The precision (475 families) and conventional (481 families) SMS text message arms had similarly high series completion rates (344/475, 72.4% vs 364/481, 75.7%). A total of 42 days after the first dose, two-thirds of families, not initially in the preparation stage, moved to preparation or vaccinated stage. Those in either SMS text message arm had significantly higher completion rates than nonenrollees (708/1503, 47.1% vs 679/1503, 45.17%; P<.001). Even after removing those needing only 2 HPV doses, adolescents receiving any SMS text messages had higher completion rates than historical controls (337/2823, 11.93% vs 981/2823, 34.75%; P<.001). A population-wide effect was seen from 2014 to 2016, above historical trends.

Conclusions

SMS text message reminders led to timely HPV vaccine series completion in a low-income, urban, minority study population and also led to population-wide effects. Educational information did not provide an added benefit to this population.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02236273; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02236273

Effect of Electronic Health Record Reminders for Routine Immunizations and Immunizations Needed for Chronic Medical Conditions

BACKGROUND

 Immunization reminders in electronic health records (EHR) provide clinical decision support (CDS) that can reduce missed immunization opportunities. Little is known about using CDS rules from a regional immunization information system (IIS) to power local EHR immunization reminders.

OBJECTIVE

 This study aimed to assess the impact of EHR reminders using regional IIS CDS-provided rules on receipt of immunizations in a low-income, urban population for both routine immunizations and those recommended for patients with chronic medical conditions (CMCs).

METHODS

 We built an EHR-based immunization reminder using the open-source resource used by the New York City IIS in which we overlaid logic regarding immunizations needed for CMCs. Using a randomized cluster-cross-over pragmatic clinical trial in four academic-affiliated clinics, we compared captured immunization opportunities during patient visits when the reminder was "on" versus "off" for the primary immunization series, school-age boosters, and adolescents. We also assessed coverage of CMC-specific immunizations. Up-to-date immunization was measured by end of quarter. Rates were compared using chi square tests.

RESULTS

 Overall, 15,343 unique patients were seen for 26,647 visits. The alert significantly impacted captured opportunities to complete the primary series in both well-child and acute care visits (57.6% on vs. 54.3% off, p = 0.001, and 15.3% on vs. 10.1% off, p = 0.02, respectively), among most age groups, and several immunization types. Captured opportunities for CMC-specific immunizations remained low regardless of alert status. The alert did not have an effect on up-to-date immunization overall (89.1 vs. 88.3%).

CONCLUSION

 CDS in this population improved captured immunization opportunities. Baseline high rates may have blunted an up-to-date population effect. Converting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) rules to generate sufficiently sensitive and specific alerts for CMC-specific immunizations proved challenging, and the alert did not have an impact on CMC-specific immunizations, potentially highlighting need for more work in this area.

Abstract P182: Recombinant Human Lecithin-cholesterol Acyltransferase Treatment In Patients With ASCVD Increases HDL Through Increases In Cholesterol Ester Content

Lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT) mediates the esterification of free cholesterol (FC) to cholesteryl ester (CE) in HDL and, therefore, plays a critical role in reverse cholesterol transport. MEDI6012, a recombinant human LCAT (rhLCAT) increases HDL-C. Our goal was to interrogate the pathways regulating the increase in HDL-C and effects of rhLCAT on apoB metabolism.

Methods: We enrolled five subjects (4 Man, mean age 67) with stable ASCVD into a Phase II, placebo controlled, double-blind, randomized cross-over study to determine the effects of two IV doses of MEDI6012, administered 48-hrs apart, versus placebo, on plasma lipids and lipoproteins. Stable isotope kinetic studies with D2-Leu, 13C-Phe, D2-Glycerol were performed to examine the metabolism of apoB100, ApoA1, ApoA2 and triglyceride.

Results: As expected two doses of IV MEDI6012 increased total cholesterol and HDL-C levels significantly (Table1). We did not observe significant changes in other measured lipids or lipoproteins. The significant increase in HDL-C was 34.9±10.3 (p=0.002) and due to an increase in the amount of CE (33±8.9 p=0.001); there was no change in free cholesterol (1.9±1.9). We found no changes in levels of sterols (i.e. Lathosterol) between the two periods. Preliminary in vivo kinetic studies of HDL metabolism in 3 subjects, showed no changes in the mean fractional clearance rate (FCR) or production rate (PR) of apoA1 between placebo (0.3±0.2pool/day, 1.3±0.5 mg/kg/day) and rhLCAT treatment (0.28±0.1pools/day, 1.3±0.3). There were no changes in ApoA2 FCR and PR after rhLCAT administration. Complete data for ApoA1, ApoA2 and ApoB100 and TG kinetics will be presented.

Conclusions: In subjects with ASCVD, treatment with rhLCAT increased HDL-C mainly by increasing HDL CE; there were no changes in the FCR or PR of HDL ApoA1 or ApoA2. Together, these results suggest that rhLCAT treatment is associated with increased steady-state transport of CE by HDL.

Whole-exome sequencing identifies multiple pathogenic variants in a large South Indian family with primary open-angle glaucoma

Purpose:

To identify the pathogenic variants associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) using whole-exome sequencing (WES) data of a large South Indian family.

Methods:

We recruited a large five-generation South Indian family (n = 84) with a positive family history of POAG (n = 19). All study participants had a comprehensive ocular evaluation. We performed WES for 16 samples (nine POAG and seven unaffected controls) since Sanger sequencing of the POAG candidate genes (MYOC, OPTN, and TBK1) showed no genetic variation. We used an in-house pipeline for prioritizing the pathogenic variants based on their segregation among the POAG individual.

Results:

We identified one novel and five low-frequency pathogenic variants with consistent co-segregation in all affected individuals. The variant c.G3719A in RPGR-interacting domain of RPGRIP1 that segregated heterozygously with the six POAG cases is distinct from variants causing photoreceptor dystrophies, reported affecting the RPGR protein complex signaling in primary cilia. The cilia in trabecular meshwork (TM) cells has been reported to mediate the intraocular pressure (IOP) sensation. Furthermore, we identified a novel c.A1295G variant in Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factors Gene 40 (ARHGEF40) and a likely pathogenic variant in the RPGR gene, suggesting that they may alter the RhoA activity essential for IOP regulation.

Conclusion:

Our study supports that low-frequency pathogenic variants in multiple genes and pathways probably affect Primary Open Angle Glaucoma’s pathogenesis in the large South Indian family. Furthermore, it requires larger case-controls to perform family-based association tests and to strengthen our analysis.

Factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Identification of high-risk patients admitted to intensive care with COVID-19 may inform management strategies. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine factors associated with mortality among adults with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care by searching databases for studies published between 1 January 2020 and 6 December 2020. Observational studies of COVID-19 adults admitted to critical care were included. Studies of mixed cohorts and intensive care cohorts restricted to a specific patient sub-group were excluded. Dichotomous variables were reported with pooled OR and 95%CI, and continuous variables with pooled standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95%CI. Fifty-eight studies (44,305 patients) were included in the review. Increasing age (SMD 0.65, 95%CI 0.53-0.77); smoking (OR 1.40, 95%CI 1.03-1.90); hypertension (OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.29-1.85); diabetes (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.22-1.63); cardiovascular disease (OR 1.91, 95%CI 1.52-2.38); respiratory disease (OR 1.75, 95%CI 1.33-2.31); renal disease (OR 2.39, 95%CI 1.68-3.40); and malignancy (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.30-2.52) were associated with mortality. A higher sequential organ failure assessment score (SMD 0.86, 95%CI 0.63-1.10) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-2 score (SMD 0.89, 95%CI 0.65-1.13); a lower PaO₂ :F_I O₂ (SMD -0.44, 95%CI -0.62 to -0.26) and the need for mechanical ventilation at admission (OR 2.53, 95%CI 1.90-3.37) were associated with mortality. Higher white cell counts (SMD 0.37, 95%CI 0.22-0.51); neutrophils (SMD 0.42, 95%CI 0.19-0.64); D-dimers (SMD 0.56, 95%CI 0.43-0.69); ferritin (SMD 0.32, 95%CI 0.19-0.45); lower platelet (SMD -0.22, 95%CI -0.35 to -0.10); and lymphocyte counts (SMD -0.37, 95%CI -0.54 to -0.19) were all associated with mortality. In conclusion, increasing age, pre-existing comorbidities, severity of illness based on validated scoring systems, and the host response to the disease were associated with mortality; while male sex and increasing BMI were not. These factors have prognostic relevance for patients admitted to intensive care with COVID-19.

Fetal growth at different gestational periods and risk of impaired childhood growth, low childhood weight and obesity: a prospective birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the longitudinal associations of fetal growth with adverse child growth outcomes and to assess whether maternal metabolic factors modify the associations.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, China.

POPULATION

A total of 4818 mother-child pairs.

METHODS

Fetal growth was assessed according to estimated fetal weight (EFW) from 22 weeks of gestation until birth and the measurement of the birthweight. Fetal growth Z-scores were computed from random effects in the multilevel linear spline models to represent fetal size in early pregnancy (22 weeks of gestation) and growth in mid-pregnancy (22-27 weeks of gestation), early third trimester (28-36 weeks of gestation) and late third trimester (≥37 weeks of gestation).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Z-scores for childhood stunting, low weight, overweight or obesity, length/height for age (LAZ/HAZ), weight for age (WAZ) and body mass index for age (BMIZ) at the age of 3 years. Adjusted associations were examined using multiple Poisson or linear regression models.

RESULTS

Increased Z-scores of fetal size in early pregnancy and growth in mid-pregnancy and early third trimester were associated with a higher risk of childhood overweight or obesity (risk ratios 1.25-1.45). Fetal growth in each period was negatively associated with stunting and low weight, with the strongest associations observed for fetal size in early pregnancy and growth in mid-pregnancy. The results for continuous outcomes (LAZ/HAZ, WAZ and BMIZ) were similar. The associations of fetal growth with overweight or obesity in childhood were stronger among mothers who were underweight and who were overweight or obese than among mothers of normal weight.

CONCLUSIONS

Accelerated fetal growth before 37 weeks of gestation is associated with children who are overweight or obese, whereas the critical period for stunting and low weight occurs before 28 weeks of gestation.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Fetal growth during different periods is differentially associated with childhood stunting, underweight and overweight or obesity.

Weight-loss response to naltrexone/bupropion is modulated by the Taq1A genetic variant near DRD2 (rs1800497): A pilot study

Naltrexone/bupropion (NB) is a US Food and Drug Administration-approved antiobesity medication. Clinical trials have shown variable weight loss, with responders and non-responders. NB is believed to act on central dopaminergic pathways to suppress appetite. The Taq1A polymorphism near DRD2 (rs1800497) is associated with the density of striatal dopamine D2 receptors, with individuals carrying the A allele (AA or AG; termed A1+) having 30%-40% fewer dopamine binding sites than those who do not carry the A allele (GG; termed A1-). We performed a pilot study to assess the association of the rs1800497 ANKK1 c.2137G > A (p.Glu713Lys) variant with weight loss with NB treatment in 33 subjects. Mean (SD) weight loss was 5.9% (3.2%) for the A1+ genotype group (n = 15) and 4.2% (4.2%) for the A1- genotype group (n = 18). The mean weight loss for the A1+ genotype group was significantly greater than the predefined clinically significant 4% weight-loss target (one-sample t-test, P = .035), whereas the mean weight loss for the A1- genotype group was not (P = .85). Individuals with the A1+ genotype appear to respond better to NB than A1- individuals.

Nondegenerate solitons and their collisions in Manakov systems

Recently, we have shown that the Manakov equation can admit a more general class of nondegenerate vector solitons, which can undergo collision without any intensity redistribution in general among the modes, associated with distinct wave numbers, besides the already-known energy exchanging solitons corresponding to identical wave numbers. In the present comprehensive paper, we discuss in detail the various special features of the reported nondegenerate vector solitons. To bring out these details, we derive the exact forms of such vector one-, two-, and three-soliton solutions through Hirota bilinear method and they are rewritten in more compact forms using Gram determinants. The presence of distinct wave numbers allows the nondegenerate fundamental soliton to admit various profiles such as double-hump, flat-top, and single-hump structures. We explain the formation of double-hump structure in the fundamental soliton when the relative velocity of the two modes tends to zero. More critical analysis shows that the nondegenerate fundamental solitons can undergo shape-preserving as well as shape-altering collisions under appropriate conditions. The shape-changing collision occurs between the modes of nondegenerate solitons when the parameters are fixed suitably. Then we observe the coexistence of degenerate and nondegenerate solitons when the wave numbers are restricted appropriately in the obtained two-soliton solution. In such a situation we find the degenerate soliton induces shape-changing behavior of nondegenerate soliton during the collision process. By performing suitable asymptotic analysis we analyze the consequences that occur in each of the collision scenario. Finally, we point out that the previously known class of energy-exchanging vector bright solitons, with identical wave numbers, turns out to be a special case of nondegenerate solitons.

Cardiometabolic disease, comorbidities and risk of death: findings using data from large-scale electronic health records

Background

Myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and diabetes are separately associated with increased risk of mortality but it is uncertain if their combined effects are proportional, amplified or less than the expected risk of each disease individually. In addition, patients with these conditions tend to also have other long-term comorbidities. How the relationship between cardiometabolic disease and risk of death is modified by the presence of comorbidity is unclear.

Purpose

We investigated the separate and combined effects of MI, stroke and diabetes on all-cause mortality, and examined the impact of comorbidity on these associations.

Methods

We selected a patient cohort of 2,007,731 (51% women) aged ≥16 years at registration with their general practice, using large-scale UK primary care electronic health records that were linked to the national death registry. We identified patients with a recorded diagnosis of MI, stroke, diabetes or none before 2005 (baseline), and classified the patient cohort into mutually exclusive categories of their baseline disease status. For each group, we also extracted information on another major 53 long-term conditions prior to baseline. The cohort was followed until death, deregistration from the practice or censored at the end of study (31 Dec 2014). We used Cox regression, and tested for departure from additivity and multiplicativity to assess interaction.

Results

At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 51 (SD=18) years and 7% (N=145,910) had a cardiometabolic disease. Over an average follow-up of 7 (SD=3) years, 270,036 died (mean age of death=79 years). After adjusting for baseline age and sex, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]), relative to those without cardiometabolic disease, were as follows: diabetes=1.53 (1.51 to 1.55), MI=1.54 (1.51 to 1.56), stroke=1.87 (1.84 to 1.90), diabetes and MI=2.16 (2.09 to 2.23), MI and stroke=2.39 (2.28 to 2.49), diabetes and stroke=2.56 (2.47 to 2.65), and all three=3.17 (2.95 to 3.41). After adjusting for the 53 comorbidities, the HR (95% CI) were attenuated: diabetes=1.37 (1.35 to 1.39), MI=1.25 (1.23 to 1.27), stroke=1.49 (1.46 to 1.52), diabetes and MI=1.60 (1.55 to 1.65), MI and stroke=1.52 (1.45 to 1.59), diabetes and stroke=1.91 (1.84 to 1.98), and all three=1.77 (1.64 to 1.91). The results did not materially changed with adjustment for smoking and deprivation level. Test for interaction revealed some minor synergistic effects when cardiometabolic disease co-occurred but excess risks were lower than expected for two combined vs individual disease effects; no significant interaction was seen for all three vs individual disease effects.

Conclusion

MI, stroke and diabetes are associated with excess mortality, which was partly due to associated chronic conditions. We found no evidence that the co-occurrence of these three conditions contribute to a higher excess mortality than expected from each of them separately.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre; Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

An interpretable model for incident heart failure prediction with uncertainty estimation

Background

Forecasting incident heart failure is a critical demand for prevention. Recent research suggested the superior performance of deep learning models on the prediction tasks using electronic health records. However, even with a relatively accurate predictive performance, the major impediments to the wider use of deep learning models for clinical decision making are the difficulties of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions and the interpretability of predictions.

Purpose

We aimed to develop a deep learning framework for more accurate incident heart failure prediction, with provision of measures of uncertainty and interpretability.

Methods

We used a longitudinal linked electronic health records dataset, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, involving 788,880 patients, 8.3% of whom had an incident heart failure diagnosis. To embed the uncertainty estimation mechanism into the deep learning models, we developed a probabilistic framework based on a novel transformer deep learning model: deep Bayesian Gaussian processes (DBGP). We investigated the performance of incident heart failure prediction and uncertainty estimation for the model and validated it using an external held-out dataset. Diagnoses, medications, and age for each encounter were included as predictors. By comparing the uncertainty, we investigated the possibility of identifying the correct predictions from wrong ones to avoid potential misclassification. Using model distillation meant to mimic a well-trained complex model with simple models, we investigated the importance of associations between diagnoses, medications and heart failure with an interpretable linear regression component learned from DBGP.

Results

The DBGP achieved high precision with 0.941 as AUROC for external validation. More importantly, it showed the uncertainty information could distinguish the correct predictions from wrong ones, with significant difference (p-value with 500 samples) between distribution of uncertainties for negative predictions (3.21e-69 between true negative and false negative), and positive predictions (3.39e-22 between true positive and false positive). Utilising the distilled model, we can specify the contribution of each diagnosis and medication to heart failure prediction. For instance, Losartan/Fosinopril, Bisoprolol and Left bundle-branch block showed strong association to heart failure incidence with coefficient 0.11 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.12), 0.09 (0.08, 0.11) and 0.09 (0.07, 0.11) respectively; Peritoneal adhesions, Trochanteric bursitis and Galactorrhea showed strong disassociations with coefficient −0.07 (−0.09, −0.05), −0.07 (−0.09, −0.04) and −0.06 (−0.08, −0.04) individually.

Conclusions

Our novel probabilistic deep learning framework adds a measure of uncertainty the prediction and helps to mitigate misclassification. Model distillation provides an opportunity to interpret deep learning models and offers a data-driven perspective for risk factor analysis.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Oxford Martin School,University of Oxford; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford

BEHRT-HF: an interpretable transformer-based, deep learning model for prediction of incident heart failure

Background/Introduction

Predicting incident heart failure has been challenging. Deep learning models when applied to rich electronic health records (EHR) offer some theoretical advantages. However, empirical evidence for their superior performance is limited and they remain commonly uninterpretable, hampering their wider use in medical practice.

Purpose

We developed a deep learning framework for more accurate and yet interpretable prediction of incident heart failure.

Methods

We used longitudinally linked EHR from practices across England, involving 100,071 patients, 13% of whom had been diagnosed with incident heart failure during follow-up. We investigated the predictive performance of a novel transformer deep learning model, “Transformer for Heart Failure” (BEHRT-HF), and validated it using both an external held-out dataset and an internal five-fold cross-validation mechanism using area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC). Predictor groups included all outpatient and inpatient diagnoses within their temporal context, medications, age, and calendar year for each encounter. By treating diagnoses as anchors, we alternatively removed different modalities (ablation study) to understand the importance of individual modalities to the performance of incident heart failure prediction. Using perturbation-based techniques, we investigated the importance of associations between selected predictors and heart failure to improve model interpretability.

Results

BEHRT-HF achieved high accuracy with AUROC 0.932 and AUPRC 0.695 for external validation, and AUROC 0.933 (95% CI: 0.928, 0.938) and AUPRC 0.700 (95% CI: 0.682, 0.718) for internal validation. Compared to the state-of-the-art recurrent deep learning model, RETAIN-EX, BEHRT-HF outperformed it by 0.079 and 0.030 in terms of AUPRC and AUROC. Ablation study showed that medications were strong predictors, and calendar year was more important than age. Utilising perturbation, we identified and ranked the intensity of associations between diagnoses and heart failure. For instance, the method showed that established risk factors including myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and hypertension all strongly associated with the heart failure prediction. Additionally, when population was stratified into different age groups, incident occurrence of a given disease had generally a higher contribution to heart failure prediction in younger ages than when diagnosed later in life.

Conclusions

Our state-of-the-art deep learning framework outperforms the predictive performance of existing models whilst enabling a data-driven way of exploring the relative contribution of a range of risk factors in the context of other temporal information.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): National Institute for Health Research, Oxford Martin School, Oxford Biomedical Research Centre

Acute injection of a DHA triglyceride emulsion after hypoxic-ischemic brain injury in mice increases both DHA and EPA levels in blood and brain✰

We recently reported that acute injection of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) triglyceride emulsions (tri-DHA) conferred neuroprotection after hypoxic-ischemic (HI) injury in a neonatal mouse stroke model. We showed that exogenous DHA increased concentrations of DHA in brain mitochondria as well as DHA-derived specialized pro-resolving mediator (SPM) levels in the brain. The objective of the present study was to investigate the distribution of emulsion particles and changes in plasma lipid profiles after tri-DHA injection in naïve mice and in animals subjected to HI injury. We also examined whether tri-DHA injection would change DHA- and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA)-derived SPM levels in the brain. To address this, neonatal (10-day-old) naïve and HI mice were injected with radiolabeled tri-DHA emulsion (0.375 g tri-DHA/kg bw), and blood clearance and tissue distribution were analyzed. Among all the organs assayed, the lowest uptake of emulsion particles was in the brain (<0.4% recovered dose) in both naïve and HI mice, while the liver had the highest uptake. Tri-DHA administration increased DHA concentrations in plasma lysophosphatidylcholine and non-esterified fatty acids. Additionally, treatment with tri-DHA after HI injury significantly elevated the levels of DHA-derived SPMs and monohydroxy-containing DHA-derived products in the brain. Further, tri-DHA administration increased resolvin E2 (RvE2, 5S,18R-dihydroxy-eicosa-6E,8Z,11Z,14Z,16E-pentaenoic acid) and monohydroxy-containing EPA-derived products in the brain. These results suggest that the transfer of DHA through plasma lipid pools plays an important role in DHA brain transport in neonatal mice subjected to HI injury. Furthermore, increases in EPA and EPA-derived SPMs following tri-DHA injection demonstrate interlinked metabolism of these two fatty acids. Hence, changes in both EPA and DHA profile patterns need to be considered when studying the protective effects of DHA after HI brain injury. Our results highlight the need for further investigation to differentiate the effects of DHA from EPA on neuroprotective pathways following HI damage. Such information could contribute to the development of specific DHA-EPA formulations to improve clinical endpoints and modulate potential biomarkers in ischemic brain injury.

Stratified effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment on long-term blood pressure: an individual patient-level meta-analysis involving 50 randomised trials and 334,219 participants

Background

Meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials (RCT) have shown the efficacy of pharmacologic lowering of blood pressure (BP) in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. While efficacy has been shown across important patient characteristics, meta-analysis based on aggregate data could not fully account for potential sources of variation due to individual-level characteristics. Moreover, it is unclear if any variation in treatment effects due to patient characteristics are reflected in differential effects of BP-lowering treatment on long-term BP according to these characteristics.

Purpose

We determined the effects of BP-lowering treatment on repeated measures of blood pressure, identified trial- and participant-level sources of heterogeneity, and examined consistency of these BP-lowering effects across different patient characteristics.

Methods

We conducted an individual patient-level data meta-analysis (N=50 trials) using one-stage approach. We classified trials according to trial design: drug comparison (N=28), placebo-controlled (N=21) and BP-lowering intensity (N=8) trials. We fitted mixed models with fixed treatment effects and fixed time effect, random intercepts at trial and participant level, and a random slope for time at participant level. We adjusted for age, sex and baseline BP (except when used as stratification factor). We used likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion to compare models.

Results

This meta-analysis included 334,219 (42% women) participants. At baseline, mean age=65 (SD=9) years, among whom 18% were current smokers, 47% had cardiovascular disease, 29% had diabetes, and 73% were previously on BP-lowering medication. Participants had an average of 8 BP measurements over 4 years of mean follow-up. For drug comparison trials, mean differences (95% confidence interval) in systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) between comparison arms were 1.3 (1.2 to 1.3) mmHg and 0.5 (0.5 to 0.5) mmHg, respectively; for placebo-controlled trials, the SBP and DBP differences were 4.2 (4.0 to 4.3) mmHg and 1.9 (1.9 to 2.0) mmHg, respectively; and for BP-lowering intensity trials, the SBP and DBP differences were 8.2 (8.0 to 8.4) mmHg and 3.7 (3.6 to 3.9) mmHg, respectively. However, BP reduction differed by duration of follow-up, type of trial. In particular, for placebo-controlled and BP-intensity trials, heterogeneity in BP reductions according to patient characteristics such as baseline BP, age, sex, prior CVD, diabetes and non-randomised anti-hypertensive use were observed.

Conclusion

This study shows the role of pharmacologic agents in effectively reducing long-term BP across individuals with a wide range of characteristics. The magnitude of BP reduction varied by several patient characteristics. This might have implications for investigation and explanation of any differential effects of BP treatment on major clinical outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation; NIHR Oxford Biomedial Research Centre