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Siddiqui A, Faraoni D, Williams RJ, Eytan D, Levin D, Mazwi M, Ng VL, Sayed BA, Laussen P, Steinberg BE. Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model in pediatric liver transplant patients for predicting intensive care unit length of stay. Paediatr Anaesth 2023; 33:938-945. [PMID: 37555370 DOI: 10.1111/pan.14736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Revised: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 08/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Liver transplantation is the life-saving treatment for many end-stage pediatric liver diseases. The perioperative course, including surgical and anesthetic factors, have an important influence on the trajectory of this high-risk population. Given the complexity and variability of the immediate postoperative course, there would be utility in identifying risk factors that allow prediction of adverse outcomes and intensive care unit trajectories. AIMS The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model of prolonged intensive care unit length of stay in the pediatric liver transplant population. METHODS This is a retrospective analysis of consecutive pediatric isolated liver transplant recipients at a single institution between April 1, 2013 and April 30, 2020. All patients under the age of 18 years receiving a liver transplant were included in the study (n = 186). The primary outcome was intensive care unit length of stay greater than 7 days. RESULTS Recipient and donor characteristics were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression model. A total of 186 patients were included in the study. Using multivariable logistic regression, we found that age < 12 months (odds ratio 4.02, 95% confidence interval 1.20-13.51, p = .024), metabolic or cholestatic disease (odds ratio 2.66, 95% confidence interval 1.01-7.07, p = .049), 30-day pretransplant hospital admission (odds ratio 8.59, 95% confidence interval 2.27-32.54, p = .002), intraoperative red blood cells transfusion >40 mL/kg (odds ratio 3.32, 95% confidence interval 1.12-9.81, p = .030), posttransplant return to the operating room (odds ratio 11.45, 95% confidence interval 3.04-43.16, p = .004), and major postoperative respiratory event (odds ratio 32.14, 95% confidence interval 3.00-343.90, p < .001) were associated with prolonged intensive care unit length of stay. The model demonstrates a good discriminative ability with an area under the receiver operative curve of 0.888 (95% confidence interval, 0.824-0.951). CONCLUSIONS We develop and validate a model to predict prolonged intensive care unit length of stay in pediatric liver transplant patients using risk factors from all phases of the perioperative period.
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Williams RJ, Brintz BJ, Santos GRD, Huang A, Buddhari D, Kaewhiran S, Iamsirithaworn S, Rothman AL, Thomas S, Farmer A, Fernandez S, Cummings DAT, Anderson KB, Salje H, Leung DT. Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.08.08.23293840. [PMID: 37609267 PMCID: PMC10441499 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.08.23293840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/24/2023]
Abstract
The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance.
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Matava C, So J, Williams RJ, Kelley S. Design and Implementation of a novel Weekend Elective Paediatric Surgery Program to Reduce COVID-19 Related Backlog: Operating Room Ramp-Up After COVID-19 Lockdown Ends - Extra Lists (ORRACLE-Xtra). JMIR Perioper Med 2021; 5:e35584. [PMID: 34887242 PMCID: PMC8929408 DOI: 10.2196/35584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Revised: 01/03/2022] [Accepted: 02/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-COV-2 virus has resulted in unprecedented challenges for the health care system. A decrease of surgical services led to substantial backlogs for time-sensitive scheduled pediatric patients. We designed and implemented a novel pilot weekend surgical quality improvement project called Operating Room Ramp-Up After COVID Lockdown Ends—Extra Lists (ORRACLE-Xtra). Objective Our overall goals are to increase patient access to surgery (and reduce the wait list), improve operating room efficiencies, and optimize parent and staff experience. Methods Using the DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve, control) framework, we implemented ORRACLE-Xtra in a tertiary care academic pediatric hospital during a quiescent period of the COVID-19 pandemic. We defined process and outcome measures based on provincial targets of out-of-window cases. Parental and staff satisfaction was tracked by surveys. Results ORRACLE-Xtra led to 247 patients receiving surgery during the pilot period, resulting in a 5% decrease in the total number of patients on our wait list with Paediatric Canadian Access Targets for Surgery IV (147/247, 59.5%), with 38.1% (94/247) out-of-window of provincial targets. Most of the process and outcome measures were met or exceeded. Overall parental satisfaction was at 95.8% (110/121), with 79% (64/81) of staff reporting satisfaction with working weekends. Conclusions Through the ORRACLE-Xtra pilot program, we have shown that hospitals impacted by COVID-19 can reduce the surgical backlog using innovative models of service delivery in a Canadian context. Sustained funding is critical to achieving more meaningful reductions in wait times for scheduled surgeries over the longer term and needs to be balanced with staff well-being.
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Kazemi P, Lau F, Simpao AF, Williams RJ, Matava C. The state of adoption of anesthesia information management systems in Canadian academic anesthesia departments: a survey. Can J Anaesth 2021; 68:693-705. [PMID: 33512661 DOI: 10.1007/s12630-021-01924-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2020] [Revised: 11/02/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Anesthesia information management systems (AIMS) are gradually replacing paper documentation of anesthesia care. This study sought to determine the current status of AIMS adoption and the level of health informatics expertise in Canadian academic anesthesia departments. METHODS Department heads or their designates of Canadian academic anesthesia departments were invited by e-mail to complete an online survey between September 2019 and February 2020. The survey elicited information on current AIMS or future plans for an AIMS installation, the number of department members dedicated to clinical informatics issues, the gross level of health informatics expertise at each department, perceived advantages of AIMS, and perceived disadvantages of and barriers to implementation of AIMS. RESULTS Of the 64 departments invited to participate, 63 (98.4%) completed the survey. Only 21 (33.3%) of the departments had AIMS. Of the 42 departments still charting on paper, 23 (54.8%) reported planning to install an AIMS within the next five years. Forty-six departments (73%) had at least one anesthesiologist tasked with dealing with AIMS or electronic health record issues. Most reported having no department members with extensive knowledge or formal training in health informatics. The top three perceived barriers and disadvantages to an AIMS installation were its initial cost, lack of funding, and a lack of technical support dedicated specifically to AIMS. The top three advantages departments wished to prioritize with AIMS were accurate clinical documentation, better data for quality improvement initiatives, and better data for research. CONCLUSIONS A majority of Canadian academic anesthesia departments are still using paper records, but this trend is expected to reverse in the next five years as more departments install an AIMS. Health informatics expertise is lacking in most of the departments, with a minority planning to support the training of future anesthesia informaticians.
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Hoyle HW, Smith LA, Williams RJ, Przyborski SA. Applications of novel bioreactor technology to enhance the viability and function of cultured cells and tissues. Interface Focus 2020; 10:20190090. [PMID: 32194933 DOI: 10.1098/rsfs.2019.0090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/20/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
As the field of tissue engineering continues to advance rapidly, so too does the complexity of cell culture techniques used to generate in vitro tissue constructs, with the overall aim of mimicking the in vivo microenvironment. This complexity typically comes at a cost with regards to the size of the equipment required and associated expenses. We have developed a small, low-cost bioreactor system which overcomes some of the issues of typical bioreactor systems while retaining a suitable scale for the formation of complex tissues. Herein, we have tested this system with three cell populations/tissues: the culture of hepatocellular carcinoma cells, where an improved structure and basic metabolic function is seen; the culture of human pluripotent stem cells, in which the cultures can form more heterogeneous tissues resembling the in vivo teratoma and ex vivo liver tissue slices, in which improved maintenance of cellular viability is seen over the 3 days tested. This system has the flexibility to be used for a variety of further uses and has the potential to provide a more accessible alternative to current bioreactor technologies.
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Ngan CGY, O’Connell CD, Blanchard R, Boyd-Moss M, Williams RJ, Bourke J, Quigley A, McKelvie P, Kapsa RMI, Choong PFM. Optimising the biocompatibility of 3D printed photopolymer constructs
in vitro
and
in vivo. Biomed Mater 2019; 14:035007. [DOI: 10.1088/1748-605x/ab09c4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
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Williams RJ, Karpuzoglu E, Connell H, Hurley DJ, Holladay SD, Gogal RM. Lead alters intracellular protein signaling and suppresses pro-inflammatory activation in TLR4 and IFNR-stimulated murine RAW 264.7 cells, in vitro. JOURNAL OF TOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH. PART A 2019; 82:279-298. [PMID: 30890031 DOI: 10.1080/15287394.2019.1591315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Lead (Pb) is a persistent environmental pollutant that has a structure and charge similar to many ions, such as calcium, that are essential for normal cellular function. Pb may compete with calcium for protein binding sites and inhibit signaling pathways within the cell affecting many organ systems including the immune system. The aim of the current study was to assess whether the calcium/calmodulin pathway is a principal target of environmentally relevant Pb during pro-inflammatory activation in a RAW 264.7 macrophage cell line. RAW 264.7 cells were cultured with 5 μM Pb(NO3)2, LPS, rIFNγ, or LPS+rIFNγ for 12, 24, or 48 hr. Intracellular protein signaling and multiple functional endpoints were investigated to determine Pb-mediated effects on macrophage function. Western blot analysis revealed that Pb initially modulated nuclear localization of NFκB p65 and cytoplasmic phosphorylation of CaMKIV accompanied by increased phosphorylation of STAT1β at 24 hr. Macrophage proliferation was significantly decreased at 12 hr in the presence of Pb, while nitric oxide (NO) was significantly reduced at 12 and 24 hr. Cells cultured with Pb for 12, 24, or 48 hr exhibited altered cytokine levels after specific stimuli activation. Our findings are in agreement with previous reports suggesting that macrophage pro-inflammatory responses are significantly modulated by Pb. Further, Pb-induced phosphorylation of CaMKIV (pCaMKIV), observed in the present study, may be a contributing factor in metal-induced autophagy noted in our previous study with this same cell line.
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Gentry CA, Nguyen PK, Thind S, Kurdgelashvili G, Skrepnek GH, Williams RJ. Fidaxomicin versus oral vancomycin for severe Clostridium difficile infection: a retrospective cohort study. Clin Microbiol Infect 2018; 25:987-993. [PMID: 30583055 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2018.12.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2018] [Revised: 11/13/2018] [Accepted: 12/09/2018] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study was conducted to compare clinical outcomes of fidaxomicin versus oral vancomycin in the management of severe Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS The investigation was a retrospective, multicentre, propensity score-matched analysis using a national clinical administrative database. Veterans treated for severe CDI from any Veterans Affairs Medical Center between 1 June 2011 and 30 June 2017 were included if they received fidaxomicin or an oral vancomycin regimen for treatment. The two groups were matched by the nearest-neighbour method from a propensity score derived from independent variables associated with the selection of a fidaxomicin course. RESULTS Propensity score matching resulted in two well-matched cohorts consisting of 213 fidaxomicin and 639 oral vancomycin courses. No statistically-significant difference was found for the primary outcome of combined clinical failure or recurrence (68/213 (31.9%) versus 163/639 (25.5%), respectively, p 0.071). Additionally, no statistically significant differences were found for the secondary outcomes of 30-day (23/213 (10.8%) versus 75/639 (11.7%), respectively, p 0.71), 90-day (48/213 (22.5%) versus 140/639 (21.9%), respectively, p 0.85), and 180-day mortality (62/213 (29.1%) versus 186/639 (29.1%), respectively, p 1.0) between the two treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS Courses of fidaxomicin or oral vancomycin for severe CDI resulted in similar treatment outcomes. Study findings are consistent with current treatment guideline recommendations for the use of either agent in the management of severe CDI.
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Kirmani BH, Jones SG, Malaisrie SC, Chung DA, Williams RJNN. Limited versus full sternotomy for aortic valve replacement. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2017; 4:CD011793. [PMID: 28394022 PMCID: PMC6478148 DOI: 10.1002/14651858.cd011793.pub2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aortic valve disease is a common condition that is easily treatable with cardiac surgery. This is conventionally performed by opening the sternum longitudinally down the centre ("median sternotomy") and replacing the valve under cardiopulmonary bypass. Median sternotomy is generally well tolerated, but as less invasive options have become available, the efficacy of limited incisions has been called into question. In particular, the effects of reducing the visibility and surgical access has raised safety concerns with regards to the placement of cannulae, venting of the heart, epicardial wire placement, and de-airing of the heart at the end of the procedure. These difficulties may increase operating times, affecting outcome. The benefits of smaller incisions are thought to include decreased pain; improved respiratory mechanics; reductions in wound infections, bleeding, and need for transfusion; shorter intensive care stay; better cosmesis; and a quicker return to normal activity. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of minimally invasive aortic valve replacement via a limited sternotomy versus conventional aortic valve replacement via median sternotomy in people with aortic valve disease requiring surgical replacement. SEARCH METHODS We performed searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, clinical trials registries, and manufacturers' websites from inception to July 2016, with no language limitations. We reviewed references of identified papers to identify any further studies of relevance. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials comparing aortic valve replacement via a median sternotomy versus aortic valve replacement via a limited sternotomy. We excluded trials that performed other minimally invasive incisions such as mini-thoracotomies, port access, trans-apical, trans-femoral or robotic procedures. Although some well-conducted prospective and retrospective case-control and cohort studies exist, these were not included in this review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently assessed trial papers to extract data, assess quality, and identify risk of bias. A third review author provided arbitration where required. The quality of evidence was determined using the GRADE methodology and results of patient-relevant outcomes were summarised in a 'Summary of findings' table. MAIN RESULTS The review included seven trials with 511 participants. These included adults from centres in Austria, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and Egypt. We performed 12 comparisons investigating the effects of minimally invasive limited upper hemi-sternotomy on aortic valve replacement as compared to surgery performed via full median sternotomy.There was no evidence of any effect of upper hemi-sternotomy on mortality versus full median sternotomy (risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36 to 2.82; participants = 511; studies = 7; moderate quality). There was no evidence of an increase in cardiopulmonary bypass time with aortic valve replacement performed via an upper hemi-sternotomy (mean difference (MD) 3.02 minutes, 95% CI -4.10 to 10.14; participants = 311; studies = 5; low quality). There was no evidence of an increase in aortic cross-clamp time (MD 0.95 minutes, 95% CI -3.45 to 5.35; participants = 391; studies = 6; low quality). None of the included studies reported major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events as a composite end point.There was no evidence of an effect on length of hospital stay through limited hemi-sternotomy (MD -1.31 days, 95% CI -2.63 to 0.01; participants = 297; studies = 5; I2 = 89%; very low quality). Postoperative blood loss was lower in the upper hemi-sternotomy group (MD -158.00 mL, 95% CI -303.24 to -12.76; participants = 297; studies = 5; moderate quality). The evidence did not support a reduction in deep sternal wound infections (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.22 to 2.30; participants = 511; studies = 7; moderate quality) or re-exploration (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.48 to 2.13; participants = 511; studies = 7; moderate quality). There was no change in pain scores by upper hemi-sternotomy (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.33, 95% CI -0.85 to 0.20; participants = 197; studies = 3; I2 = 70%; very low quality), but there was a small increase in postoperative pulmonary function tests with minimally invasive limited sternotomy (MD 1.98 % predicted FEV1, 95% CI 0.62 to 3.33; participants = 257; studies = 4; I2 = 28%; low quality). There was a small reduction in length of intensive care unit stays as a result of the minimally invasive upper hemi-sternotomy (MD -0.57 days, 95% CI -0.93 to -0.20; participants = 297; studies = 5; low quality). Postoperative atrial fibrillation was not reduced with minimally invasive aortic valve replacement through limited compared to full sternotomy (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.07 to 4.89; participants = 240; studies = 3; moderate quality), neither were postoperative ventilation times (MD -1.12 hours, 95% CI -3.43 to 1.19; participants = 297; studies = 5; low quality). None of the included studies reported cost analyses. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS The evidence in this review was assessed as generally low to moderate quality. The study sample sizes were small and underpowered to demonstrate differences in outcomes with low event rates. Clinical heterogeneity both between and within studies is a relatively fixed feature of surgical trials, and this also contributed to the need for caution in interpreting results.Considering these limitations, there was uncertainty of the effect on mortality or extracorporeal support times with upper hemi-sternotomy for aortic valve replacement compared to full median sternotomy. The evidence to support a reduction in total hospital length of stay or intensive care stay was low in quality. There was also uncertainty of any difference in the rates of other, secondary outcome measures or adverse events with minimally invasive limited sternotomy approaches to aortic valve replacement.There appears to be uncertainty between minimally invasive aortic valve replacement via upper hemi-sternotomy and conventional aortic valve replacement via a full median sternotomy. Before widespread adoption of the minimally invasive approach can be recommended, there is a need for a well-designed and adequately powered prospective randomised controlled trial. Such a study would benefit from performing a robust cost analysis. Growing patient preference for minimally invasive techniques merits thorough quality-of-life analyses to be included as end points, as well as quantitative measures of physiological reserve.
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Chalklin C, Skellern T, Williams RJ. A simple purse string closure to maintain breast projection after central excision. Ann R Coll Surg Engl 2015; 97:163. [PMID: 25723707 DOI: 10.1308/rcsann.2015.97.2.163b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
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Keller VDJ, Lloyd P, Terry JA, Williams RJ. Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2015; 197:262-268. [PMID: 25440503 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2014.11.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2014] [Revised: 11/10/2014] [Accepted: 11/13/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk.
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Boxall ABA, Keller VDJ, Straub JO, Monteiro SC, Fussell R, Williams RJ. Exploiting monitoring data in environmental exposure modelling and risk assessment of pharmaceuticals. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2014; 73:176-85. [PMID: 25127044 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2014.07.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2013] [Revised: 07/23/2014] [Accepted: 07/23/2014] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
In order to establish the environmental impact of an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), good information on the level of exposure in surface waters is needed. Exposure concentrations are typically estimated using information on the usage of an API as well as removal rates in the patient, the wastewater system and in surface waters. These input data are often highly variable and difficult to obtain, so model estimates often do not agree with measurements made in the field. In this paper we present an approach which uses inverse modelling to estimate overall removal rates of pharmaceuticals at the catchment scale using a hydrological model as well as prescription and monitoring data for a few representative sites for a country or region. These overall removal rates are then used to model exposure across the broader landscape. Evaluation of this approach for APIs in surface waters across England and Wales showed good agreement between modelled exposure distributions and available monitoring data. The use of the approach, alongside estimates of predicted no-effect concentrations for the 12 study compounds, to assess risk of the APIs across the UK landscape, indicated that, for most of the compounds, risks to aquatic life were low. However, ibuprofen was predicted to pose an unacceptable risk in 49.5% of the river reaches studied. For diclofenac, predicted exposure concentrations were also compared to the Environmental Quality Standard previously proposed by the European Commission and 4.5% of river reaches were predicted to exceed this concentration. While the current study focused on pharmaceuticals, the approach could also be valuable in assessing the risks of other 'down the drain' chemicals and could help inform our understanding of the important dissipation processes for pharmaceuticals in the pathway from the patient to ecological receptors.
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Hodgins DC, Schopflocher DP, Martin CR, el-Guebaly N, Casey DM, Currie SR, Smith GJ, Williams RJ. Disordered gambling among higher-frequency gamblers: who is at risk? Psychol Med 2012; 42:2433-2444. [PMID: 22717172 DOI: 10.1017/s0033291712000724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND When gambling opportunities are made available to the public in a given jurisdiction, some individuals participate occasionally and others more frequently. Among frequent gamblers, some individuals develop problematic involvement and some do not. This study addresses the association among demographic and social risk factors, frequency of gambling and gambling disorders. METHOD Data from an adult community sample (n=1372) were used to identify risk factors for higher-frequency gambling and disordered gambling involvement. RESULTS Individuals with higher intelligence, older individuals and more religious individuals were less frequent gamblers. Males, single individuals and those exposed to gambling environments (friends and family who gamble) and those who started to gamble at a younger age were more frequent gamblers. Excitement-seeking personality traits were also higher among more frequent gamblers. A different set of risk factors was associated with the likelihood of gambling disorder among these higher-frequency gamblers. These variables included mental health indicators, childhood maltreatment and parental gambling involvement. Among higher-frequency gamblers, individuals who smoke cigarettes, those with a diagnosis of alcohol or drug dependence or obsessive-compulsive disorder, those with higher anxiety or depression and those with higher impulsivity and antisocial personality traits were more likely to report gambling-related problems. These individuals were also more likely to report gambling on electronic gambling machines (e.g. slot machines). CONCLUSIONS These data suggest a model in which higher-frequency gambling, particularly with electronic gambling machines, when combined with any type of emotional vulnerability increased the likelihood of gambling disorder.
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Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, Davies I, Lindenmayer DB, Price OF, Williams RJ. Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: insights from landscape-scale simulation. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2012; 105:66-75. [PMID: 22531752 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.03.050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2011] [Revised: 03/13/2012] [Accepted: 03/26/2012] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires pose significant risks to people and human infrastructure worldwide. The treatment of fuel in landscapes may alter these risks but the magnitude of this effect on risk is poorly understood. Evidence from Australian Eucalyptus forests suggests that mitigation of risk using prescribed burning as a fuel treatment is partial because weather and fuel dynamics are conducive to regular high intensity fires. We further examine the response of risk to treatment in eucalypt forests using landscape simulation modelling. We model how five key measures of wildfire activity that govern risk to people and property may respond to variations in rate and spatial pattern of prescribed fire. We then model effects of predicted climate change (2050 scenarios) to determine how the response of risk to treatment is likely to be altered in the future. The results indicate that a halving of risk to people and property in these forests is likely to require treatment rates of 7-10% of the area of the landscape per annum. Projections of 2050 weather conditions under climate change further substantially diminished the effect of rate of treatment. A large increase in rates of treatment (i.e. circa. 50% over current levels) would be required to counteract these effects of climate change. Such levels of prescribed burning are unlikely to be financially feasible across eucalypt dominated vegetation in south eastern Australia. Despite policy imperatives to expand fuel treatment, a reduction rather than an elimination of risk will result. Multi-faceted strategies will therefore be required for the management of risk.
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Whelan MJ, Hodges JEN, Williams RJ, Keller VDJ, Price OR, Li M. Estimating surface water concentrations of "down-the-drain" chemicals in China using a global model. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2012; 165:233-240. [PMID: 22153294 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2011.10.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2011] [Revised: 10/04/2011] [Accepted: 10/26/2011] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Predictions of surface water exposure to "down-the-drain" chemicals are presented which employ grid-based spatially-referenced data on average monthly runoff, population density, country-specific per capita domestic water and substance use rates and sewage treatment provision. Water and chemical load are routed through the landscape using flow directions derived from digital elevation data, accounting for in-stream chemical losses using simple first order kinetics. Although the spatial and temporal resolution of the model are relatively coarse, the model still has advantages over spatially inexplicit "unit-world" approaches, which apply arbitrary dilution factors, in terms of predicting the location of exposure hotspots and the statistical distribution of concentrations. The latter can be employed in probabilistic risk assessments. Here the model was applied to predict surface water exposure to "down-the-drain" chemicals in China for different levels of sewage treatment provision. Predicted spatial patterns of concentration were consistent with observed water quality classes for China.
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Williams RJ, Howes RJ, Chabda S, Chalder A. Significant neurological presentations in commando trained personnel: case studies and consideration of differential diagnosis. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL NAVAL MEDICAL SERVICE 2012; 98:19-22. [PMID: 22970641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
A 27-year-old Royal Marine presented to his sickbay following two episodes of sudden onset visual disturbance. A subsequent MRI Scan demonstrated ischaemic changes in the territory of his right posterior cerebral artery. Transthoracic echocardiography was normal but a bubble contrast study was strongly positive indicating the presence of a relatively large patent foramen ovale (PFO). He underwent endovascular closure of his patent foramen ovale and was subsequently upgraded back to full duties. A 35-year-old Army Sergeant presented with sudden onset collapse, right sided weakness, dysarthria and confusion. He was airlifted to a Host Nation hospital and following a normal CT head underwent thrombolysis in the Emergency Department. This was unsuccessful but a CT guided embolectomy led to complete resolution of symptoms. Subsequent transthoracic echo revealed a PFO. He underwent endovascular closure and has since been returned to full duties. The incidence of PFO is common affecting 27% of the population but the incidence of ischaemic stroke in young adults (aged 15-45 years old) is rare. This maybe linked to the size of the PFOs in symptomatic individuals. These case reports emphasise the requirement for further investigation of individuals presenting with collapse and persisting neurology. Differential diagnosis and initial management for primary care and pre-hospital clinicians is also reviewed.
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Watson S, Wee HC, Griffiths H, Williams RJ. A highly phase-stable differential detector amplifier for magnetic induction tomography. Physiol Meas 2011; 32:917-26. [DOI: 10.1088/0967-3334/32/7/s14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Four pigeons were trained under concurrent variable-interval variable-interval and fixed-interval variable-interval schedules in a two-key situation. Both response allocation and time allocation to the two schedules were measured when various reinforcement rates were arranged on each key. All animals showed an approximately constant proportional preference for the variable-interval schedule over the fixed-interval schedule. These results support Schneider's (1969) analysis of fixed-interval schedule performance.
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Experiments using the Warburg-Barcroft apparatus led to the following results and conclusions: (1) Two yeasts in three different media were strikingly stimulated in their respiration by minute amounts of pantothenic acid. (2) Nine other compounds (vitamins and other biologically important substances) were tested and found in all cases to have on the deficient G.M. yeast, lesser and in some cases no appreciable stimulative effect. Thiamin was the most effective of these compounds. Its action was shown to be different and in some ways antagonistic to that of pantothenic acid. (3) Liver extract (Lilly's Number 343) contains substances capable of speeding up respiration (and growth) to a much higher level than seems possible with known compounds. (4) Pantothenic acid was found to have a definite stimulative effect on fermentation by dialyzed maceration juice from yeast. (5) It likewise stimulated respiration of apple and potato tissue and indications of a similar effect on certain animal tissues were obtained.
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Abstract
REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY The use of water treadmill exercise in horses is popular, although little is known about the physiological responses to this form of exercise. No information exists regarding the time taken to acclimate to water treadmill exercise compared to that of high-speed treadmill exercise, for both physiological and biomechanical parameters. OBJECTIVE To determine heart rate responses during acclimation to water treadmill exercise with and without sedation on first time exposure. METHODS All horses were exercised on a water treadmill at the walk for 15 min once a day for 4 days. Fourteen horses (mean +/- s.d. age 9 +/- 3.2 years) were assigned randomly to Group A (sedated) and Group B (nonsedated). Group A were given 20-30 microg/kg bwt romifidine within 10-15 min prior to the start of the first acclimating run. Acclimation was determined by the time taken to reach a threshold heart rate value. RESULTS Group A and B reached threshold heart rate values by the 6th minute of the 4th run (72.8 beats/min) and the 6th min of the 3rd run (78.7 beats/min), respectively. No significant difference was found (P>0.05) between Group A and B in the time taken to reach threshold heart rate values. Acclimation to water treadmill exercise requires a minimum of 2 x 15 min nonsedated acclimating runs. Sedation can be used to prevent horses panicking during the first exposure but thereafter does not affect the time taken to acclimate. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE Previous experience of water treadmill exercise should be taken into consideration prior to collecting physiological and biomechanical data. Further studies detailing the physiological and biomechanical responses are required prior to making recommendations for the incorporation of this mode of exercise into rehabilitation programmes.
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