Pre-diagnostic plasma inflammatory proteins and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in three population-based cohort studies from the United States and the United Kingdom

Previous studies suggest a role for inflammation in hepatocarcinogenesis. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated associations between circulating inflammatory proteins and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among the general population. We conducted a nested case-control study in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS) with 56 pairs of incident HCC cases and controls. External validation was performed in the UK Biobank (34 HCC cases and 48,471 non-HCC controls). Inflammatory protein levels were measured in pre-diagnostic plasma using the Olink® Inflammation Panel. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate multivariable odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between a 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in biomarker levels and HCC risk, considering a statistically significant threshold of false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted p < .05. In the NHS/HPFS, among 70 analyzed proteins with call rates >80%, 15 proteins had significant associations with HCC risk (pFDR < .05). Two proteins (stem cell factor, OR per SD = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.16-0.58; tumor necrosis factor superfamily member 12, OR per SD = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.31-0.85) were inversely associated whereas 13 proteins were positively associated with risk of HCC; positive ORs per SD ranged from 1.73 for interleukin (IL)-10 to 2.35 for C-C motif chemokine-19. A total of 11 proteins were further replicated in the UK Biobank. Seven of the eight selected positively associated proteins also showed positive associations with HCC risk by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, with ORs ranging from 1.56 for IL-10 to 2.72 for hepatocyte growth factor. More studies are warranted to further investigate the roles of these observed inflammatory proteins in HCC etiology, early detection, risk stratification, and disease treatment.

Association of tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer risk: The Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tea and coffee are widely consumed beverages worldwide. We evaluated their association with biliary tract cancer (BTC) incidence.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We pooled data from 15 studies in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to evaluate associations between tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer development. We categorized participants as nondrinkers (0 cup/day), moderate drinkers (>0 and <3 cups/day), and heavy drinkers (≥3 cups/day). We estimated multivariable HRs and 95% CIs using Cox models. During 29,911,744 person-years of follow-up, 851 gallbladder, 588 intrahepatic bile duct, 753 extrahepatic bile duct, and 458 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were diagnosed. Individuals who drank tea showed a statistically significantly lower incidence rate of gallbladder cancer (GBC) relative to tea nondrinkers (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.64-0.91), and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC) had an inverse association (HR=0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.00). However, no associations were observed for extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC) or ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC). In contrast, coffee consumption was positively associated with GBC, with a higher incidence rate for individuals consuming more coffee (HR<3 cups/day =1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66; HR≥3 cups/day =1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-1.99, Ptrend=0.01) relative to coffee nondrinkers. However, there was no association between coffee consumption and GBC when restricted to coffee drinkers. There was little evidence of associations between coffee consumption and other biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Tea consumption was associated with a lower incidence of GBC and possibly IHBDC. Further research is warranted to replicate the observed positive association between coffee and GBC.

Pre-diagnostic plasma proteomics profile for hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Proteomics may discover pathophysiological changes related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), an aggressive and lethal type of cancer with low sensitivity for early-stage diagnosis.

DESIGN

We measured 1,305 pre-diagnostic (median 12.7 years) SOMAscan proteins from 54 pairs of healthy individuals who subsequently developed HCC and matched non-HCC controls from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). Candidate proteins were validated in the independent, prospective UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project (UKB-PPP).

RESULTS

In NHS/HPFS, we identified 56 elevated proteins in HCC with absolute fold-change >1.2 and Wald test P < .05 in conditional logistic regression analysis. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis identified enrichment of pathways associated with cell viability, adhesion, proteolysis, apoptosis, and inflammatory response. Four proteins, chitinase-3-like protein 1, growth/differentiation factor 15, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist protein, and E-selectin, showed strong positive associations with HCC and were thus validated by ELISA (odds ratio ranged 2.48-14.7, all P < .05) in the NHS/HPFS and by Olink platform (hazard ratio ranged 1.90-3.93, all P < .05) in the UKB-PPP. Adding these four proteins to a logistic regression model of traditional HCC risk factors increased the area under the curve (AUC) from 0.67 to 0.87 in the NHS/HPFS. Consistently, model AUC was 0.88 for HCC risk prediction in the UKB-PPP.

CONCLUSION

However, the limited number of HCC cases in the cohorts necessitates caution in interpreting our findings, emphasizing the need for further validation in high-risk populations.

A natural language processing algorithm accurately classifies steatotic liver disease pathology to estimate the risk of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Histopathology remains the gold standard for diagnosing and staging metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). The feasibility of studying MASLD progression in electronic medical records based on histological features is limited by the free-text nature of pathology reports. Here we introduce a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to automatically score MASLD histology features.

METHODS

From the Mass General Brigham health care system electronic medical record, we identified all patients (1987-2021) with steatosis on index liver biopsy after excluding excess alcohol use and other etiologies of liver disease. An NLP algorithm was constructed in Python to detect steatosis, lobular inflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis stage from pathology free-text and manually validated in >1200 pathology reports. Patients were followed from the index biopsy to incident decompensated liver disease accounting for covariates.

RESULTS

The NLP algorithm demonstrated positive and negative predictive values from 93.5% to 100% for all histologic concepts. Among 3134 patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD followed for 20,604 person-years, rates of the composite endpoint increased monotonically with worsening index fibrosis stage (p for linear trend <0.005). Compared to simple steatosis (incidence rate, 15.06/1000 person-years), the multivariable-adjusted HRs for cirrhosis were 1.04 (0.72-1.5) for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH)/F0, 1.19 (0.92-1.54) for MASH/F1, 1.89 (1.41-2.52) for MASH/F2, and 4.21 (3.26-5.43) for MASH/F3.

CONCLUSIONS

The NLP algorithm accurately scores histological features of MASLD from pathology free-text. This algorithm enabled the construction of a large and high-quality MASLD cohort across a multihospital health care system and disclosed an accelerating risk for cirrhosis based on the index MASLD fibrosis stage.

Statins Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Severe Liver Disease in Individuals With Noncirrhotic Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the potential impact of statins on the progression of noncirrhotic chronic liver diseases (CLDs) to severe liver disease.

METHODS

Using liver histopathology data in a nationwide Swedish cohort, we identified 3862 noncirrhotic individuals with CLD and statin exposure, defined as a statin prescription filled for 30 or more cumulative defined daily doses. Statin users were matched to 3862 (statin) nonusers with CLD through direct 1:1 matching followed by propensity score matching. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome of incident severe liver disease (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation/liver-related mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 45.3% of CLD patients had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 21.9% had alcohol-related liver disease, 17.7% had viral hepatitis, and 15.1% had autoimmune hepatitis. During follow-up evaluation, 234 (6.1%) statin users vs 276 (7.1%) nonusers developed severe liver disease. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of developing severe liver disease (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.74). Statistically significantly lower rates of severe liver disease were seen in alcohol-related liver disease (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.49) and in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.00), but not in viral hepatitis (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.14) or autoimmune hepatitis (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.48-1.58). Statin use had a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis. Statin use was associated with lower rates of progression to cirrhosis (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71), and liver-related mortality (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with noncirrhotic CLD, incident statin use was linked to lower rates of severe liver disease, suggesting a potential disease-modifying role.

Aspirin for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Without Cirrhosis: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Aspirin may reduce severity of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and lower the incidence of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma, in patients with MASLD. However, the effect of aspirin on MASLD is unknown.

Objective

To test whether low-dose aspirin reduces liver fat content, compared with placebo, in adults with MASLD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This 6-month, phase 2, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted at a single hospital in Boston, Massachusetts. Participants were aged 18 to 70 years with established MASLD without cirrhosis. Enrollment occurred between August 20, 2019, and July 19, 2022, with final follow-up on February 23, 2023.

Interventions

Participants were randomized (1:1) to receive either once-daily aspirin, 81 mg (n = 40) or identical placebo pills (n = 40) for 6 months.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was mean absolute change in hepatic fat content, measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) at 6-month follow-up. The 4 key secondary outcomes included mean percentage change in hepatic fat content by MRS, the proportion achieving at least 30% reduction in hepatic fat, and the mean absolute and relative reductions in hepatic fat content, measured by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF). Analyses adjusted for the baseline value of the corresponding outcome. Minimal clinically important differences for study outcomes were not prespecified.

Results

Among 80 randomized participants (mean age, 48 years; 44 [55%] women; mean hepatic fat content, 35% [indicating moderate steatosis]), 71 (89%) completed 6-month follow-up. The mean absolute change in hepatic fat content by MRS was -6.6% with aspirin vs 3.6% with placebo (difference, -10.2% [95% CI, -27.7% to -2.6%]; P = .009). Compared with placebo, aspirin treatment significantly reduced relative hepatic fat content (-8.8 vs 30.0 percentage points; mean difference, -38.8 percentage points [95% CI, -66.7 to -10.8]; P = .007), increased the proportion of patients with 30% or greater relative reduction in hepatic fat (42.5% vs 12.5%; mean difference, 30.0% [95% CI, 11.6% to 48.4%]; P = .006), reduced absolute hepatic fat content by MRI-PDFF (-2.7% vs 0.9%; mean difference, -3.7% [95% CI, -6.1% to -1.2%]; P = .004]), and reduced relative hepatic fat content by MRI-PDFF (-11.7 vs 15.7 percentage points; mean difference, -27.3 percentage points [95% CI, -45.2 to -9.4]; P = .003). Thirteen participants (32.5%) in each group experienced an adverse event, most commonly upper respiratory tract infections (10.0% in each group) or arthralgias (5.0% for aspirin vs 7.5% for placebo). One participant randomized to aspirin (2.5%) experienced drug-related heartburn.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this preliminary randomized clinical trial of patients with MASLD, 6 months of daily low-dose aspirin significantly reduced hepatic fat quantity compared with placebo. Further study in a larger sample size is necessary to confirm these findings.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04031729.

The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy.

METHODS

Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries.

RESULTS

Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

Incident cardiac arrhythmias associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a nationwide histology cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest a link between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and incident arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation (AF). However, robust data are lacking from cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging MASLD severity.

METHODS

This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically-confirmed MASLD and without prior cardiac arrhythmias (1966-2016; n = 11,206). MASLD was defined from prospectively-recorded histopathology, and characterized as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (MASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis, or cirrhosis. MASLD patients were matched to ≤ 5 controls without MASLD or arrhythmias, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 51,856). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident arrhythmias (including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, incident arrhythmias were confirmed in 1351 MASLD patients (10.3/1000 person-years [PY]) and 6493 controls (8.7/1000PY; difference = 1.7/1000PY; aHR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.22-1.38), and MASLD patients had significantly higher rates of incident AF (difference = 0.9/1000PY; aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.18-1.35). Rates of both overall arrhythmias and AF were significantly elevated across all MASLD histological groups, particularly cirrhosis (differences, 8.5/1000PY and 5.3/1000PY, respectively). In secondary analyses, MASLD patients also had significantly higher rates of incident ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest (aHR = 1.53, 95%CI 1.30-1.80), bradyarrhythmias (aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.06-1.48), and other supraventricular arrhythmias (aHR = 1.27, 95%CI 1.00-1.62), compared to controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to matched controls, patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD had modest but significantly higher incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias and ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest. Excess risk was observed across all stages of MASLD and was highest with cirrhosis.

Risk of Severe Infection in Patients With Biopsy-proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It has been suggested that patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) might be at increased risk of severe infections, but large-scale data from cohorts with biopsy-proven NAFLD are lacking.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study including all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD (n = 12,133) from 1969 to 2017. NAFLD was defined as simple steatosis (n = 8232), nonfibrotic steatohepatitis (n = 1378), noncirrhotic fibrosis (n = 1845), and cirrhosis (n = 678). Patients were matched to ≤5 population comparators (n = 57,516) by age, sex, calendar year, and county. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident severe infections requiring hospital admission. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios in NAFLD and histopathological subgroups.

RESULTS

Over a median of 14.1 years, 4517 (37.2%) patients with NAFLD vs 15,075 (26.2%) comparators were hospitalized for severe infections. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of severe infections than comparators (32.3 vs. 17.0/1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-1.79). The most frequent infections were respiratory (13.8/1000 person-years) and urinary tract infections (11.4/1000 person-years). The absolute risk difference at 20 years after NAFLD diagnosis was 17.3%, equal to one extra severe infection in every 6 patients with NAFLD. Risk of infection increased with worsening histological severity of NAFLD (simple steatosis [aHR, 1.64], nonfibrotic steatohepatitis [aHR, 1.84], noncirrhotic fibrosis [aHR, 1.77], and cirrhosis [aHR, 2.32]. Also compared with their full siblings, patients with NAFLD were at increased risk of severe infections (aHR, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were at significantly higher risk of incident severe infection requiring hospitalization both compared with the general population and compared with siblings. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

Progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and long-term outcomes: A nationwide paired liver biopsy cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

More data are needed regarding the long-term impact of the histological progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on long-term outcomes, including end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality.

METHODS

We included Swedish adults with biopsy-confirmed non-cirrhotic NAFLD and ≥2 liver biopsies >6 months apart (1969-2017; n = 718). NAFLD was categorized at initial biopsy as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), or non-cirrhotic fibrosis. NAFLD progression was defined by histological changes between biopsies (i.e. incident NASH, incident fibrosis, fibrosis progression, cirrhosis). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident ESLD (i.e. hospitalization for decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplantation) and mortality, according to NAFLD progression vs. stable/regressed disease.

RESULTS

At initial biopsy, 497 patients (69.2%) had simple steatosis, 90 (12.5%) had non-fibrotic NASH, and 131 (18.2%) had non-cirrhotic fibrosis. Over a median of 3.4 years between biopsies, 30.4% (218/718) experienced NAFLD progression, including 12.5% (62/497) with incident non-fibrotic NASH, 24.0% (141/587) with incident fibrosis, and 5.6% (40/718) with cirrhosis. Compared to stable/regressed disease, NAFLD progression was associated with significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD (23.8 vs. 11.4/1,000 person-years [PY]; difference = 12.4/1,000 PY; aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.17-2.32). While the highest ESLD incidence occurred with progression to cirrhosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 56.3/1,000 PY), significant excess risk was also found with earlier transitions, including from simple steatosis to incident fibrosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 18.9/1,000 PY). In contrast, all-cause mortality rates did not appear to differ when NAFLD progression was compared to stable/regressed disease (difference = 4.7/1,000 PY; aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.78-1.24).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide, real-world cohort of patients with paired NAFLD biopsies, histological disease progression contributed to significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD, but did not appear to impact all-cause mortality.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Currently, data are scarce regarding the long-term impact of histological progression or regression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on subsequent risk of adverse clinical outcomes, including the development of end-stage liver disease and mortality. This is particularly important because randomized-controlled trials of NAFLD therapeutics currently focus on short-term histological endpoints as presumed surrogates for those major clinical outcomes. Thus, the results from this study can help inform the optimal design of future NAFLD therapeutic trials, while also providing the necessary evidence base for public health policies focused on preventing the development and progression of NAFLD.

Growth Hormone Administration Improves Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Overweight/Obesity: A Randomized Trial

CONTEXT

Overweight and obesity are associated with relative growth hormone (GH) deficiency, which has been implicated in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). NAFLD is a progressive disease without effective treatments.

OBJECTIVE

We hypothesized that GH administration would reduce hepatic steatosis in individuals with overweight/obesity and NAFLD.

METHODS

In this 6-month randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of low-dose GH administration, 53 adults aged 18 to 65 years with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and NAFLD without diabetes were randomized to daily subcutaneous GH or placebo, targeting insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) to the upper normal quartile. The primary endpoint was intrahepatic lipid content (IHL) by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) assessed before treatment and at 6 months.

RESULTS

Subjects were randomly assigned to a treatment group (27 GH; 26 placebo), with 41 completers (20 GH and 21 placebo) at 6 months. Reduction in absolute % IHL by 1H-MRS was significantly greater in the GH vs placebo group (mean ± SD: -5.2 ± 10.5% vs 3.8 ± 6.9%; P = .009), resulting in a net mean treatment effect of -8.9% (95% CI, -14.5 to -3.3%). All side effects were similar between groups, except for non-clinically significant lower extremity edema, which was more frequent in the GH vs placebo group (21% vs 0%, P = .02). There were no study discontinuations due to worsening of glycemic status, and there were no significant differences in change in glycemic measures or insulin resistance between the GH and placebo groups.

CONCLUSION

GH administration reduces hepatic steatosis in adults with overweight/obesity and NAFLD without worsening glycemic measures. The GH/IGF-1 axis may lead to future therapeutic targets for NAFLD.

Effect of combined tobacco use and type 2 diabetes mellitus on prevalent fibrosis in patients with MASLD

BACKGROUND

Several studies have investigated the independent effect of cigarette smoking or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on MASLD. However, the interaction effect between tobacco consumption and T2DM on MASLD severity remains underexplored. In this study, we assessed the combined effect of tobacco use and T2DM on hepatic fibrosis in MASLD.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center retrospective cross-sectional analysis of eligible participants from the Mass General Brigham Fibroscan© database. The participants were divided into 3 groups: those with T2DM and a history of tobacco use (primary exposure group), those with T2DM but no history of tobacco use (secondary exposure group), and those without T2DM and no history of tobacco use (reference group). An additional model was developed, which included a fourth group, participants with a history of tobacco use but no T2DM. The likelihood of fibrosis was determined using a defined fibrosis-4 index cutoff value of 1.3. In addition, we computed the estimated marginal means for liver stiffness measurement and compared the values among the exposure groups. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to explore the associations between the exposure groups and the risk for hepatic fibrosis.

RESULTS

Overall, 598 individuals were enrolled in the study. The bivariable logistic regression model revealed a significant independent association between T2DM, combined smoking and T2DM, and the outcome of interest, fibrosis. Age, sex, metabolic syndrome, aspirin use, statin use, hemoglobin A1C (A1C), and total bilirubin level were also significantly associated with fibrosis. In the adjusted fibrosis-4 multivariable model (comparing exposure groups to controls), cigarette smoking and T2DM interaction had higher odds of prevalent fibrosis (aOR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.62-5.76), compared to those with T2DM alone (aOR 2.28; 95% CI, 1.37-3.85). The continuous liver stiffness measurement comparison across the exposure group showed an estimated marginal means of 6.26 (95% CL: 5.58-6.94), 7.54 (95% CL: 6.78-8.30), and 7.88 (6.78-8.99) for the reference group, T2DM only group, and tobacco-T2DM group, respectively. The diabetes-only group and the combined tobacco-T2DM group had statistically significant associations with liver stiffness measurement (p values: 0.013 and 0.014, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Although diabetes is independently associated with hepatic fibrosis in patients with MASLD, the combination of tobacco consumption and diabetes is associated with a higher prevalence of fibrosis. Therefore, lifestyle change through tobacco use cessation in patients with diabetes could be beneficial in reducing the incidence of liver fibrosis among individuals with MASLD.

Antibiotic use and development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Antibiotics affect the gut microbiome. Preclinical studies suggest a role of gut dysbiosis in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but data from large cohorts with liver histology are lacking.

METHODS

In this nationwide case-control study, Swedish adults with histologically confirmed early-stage NAFLD (total n = 2584; simple steatosis n = 1435; steatohepatitis (NASH) n = 383; non-cirrhotic fibrosis n = 766) diagnosed January 2007-April 2017 were included and matched to ≤5 population controls (n = 12 646) for age, sex, calendar year and county of residence. Data for cumulative antibiotic dispensations and defined daily doses were accrued until 1 year before the matching date. Using conditional logistic regression, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated. In a secondary analysis, NAFLD patients were compared with their full siblings (n = 2837).

RESULTS

Previous antibiotic use was seen in 1748 (68%) NAFLD patients versus 7001 (55%) controls, corresponding to 1.35-fold increased odds of NAFLD (95% CI = 1.21-1.51) in a dose-dependent manner (pfor trend  < .001). Estimates were comparable for all histologic stages (p > .05). The highest risk of NAFLD was observed after treatment with fluoroquinolones (aOR 1.38; 95% CI = 1.17-1.59). Associations remained robust when patients were compared with their full siblings (aOR 1.29; 95% CI = 1.08-1.55). Antibiotic treatment was only linked to NAFLD in patients without metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.63; 95% CI = 1.35-1.91) but not in those with metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.09; 95% CI = 0.88-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic use may be a risk factor for incident NAFLD, especially in individuals without the metabolic syndrome. The risk was highest for fluoroquinolones and remained robust in sibling comparisons with whom individuals share genetic and early environmental susceptibilities.

The empirical dietary inflammatory pattern score and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Diet plays an important role in the pathogenesis of NAFLD. Inflammation is a potential mechanism linking diet to NAFLD development and its progression to cirrhosis.1 We analyzed data from a large, prospective cohort of US women to examine the influence of dietary inflammatory potential on the long-term risk of developing NAFLD and cirrhosis.

METHODS

We prospectively followed 96,016 women in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort (1995-2017) who were free of chronic liver disease, including NAFLD, at baseline. The inflammatory potential of the diet was ascertained using an established, food-based empirical dietary inflammatory pattern score. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for incident NAFLD and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Over 2,085,947 person-years of follow-up, we documented 4389 cases of incident NAFLD and 102 cases of incident cirrhosis. Increasing cumulative average empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) score was significantly and positively associated with incident NAFLD (multivariable-adjusted HR 1.31 per each 1-U increase in EDIP score, p-trend < 0.0001) and cirrhosis (p-trend of 0.034). Our findings also were consistent when examining recent diets using simple updated EDIP scores. In analyses of specific EDIP components, we observed an increased risk of incident NAFLD and cirrhosis with higher consumption of certain proinflammatory components of the EDIP score.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary patterns with a higher proinflammatory potential may be associated with a higher risk of developing both NAFLD and cirrhosis. Reducing the inflammatory potential of diet may potentially provide an effective strategy for preventing the development of NAFLD and progression to cirrhosis.

Extrahepatic Outcomes of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Nonhepatocellular Cancers

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses the entire spectrum of fatty liver disease in individuals without significant alcohol consumption, including isolated steatosis, steatohepatitis, and cirrhosis. The overall global prevalence of NAFLD is estimated to be 30%, and the associated clinical and economic burden will continue to increase. NAFLD is a multisystemic disease with established links to cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, polycystic ovarian syndrome, and intra- and extrahepatic malignancies. In this article the authors review the potential mechanisms and current evidence for the association between NAFLD and extrahepatic cancers and the resultant impact on clinical outcomes.

American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) International Multidisciplinary Roundtable report on physical activity and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We present findings from the inaugural American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) International Multidisciplinary Roundtable, which was convened to evaluate the evidence for physical activity as a means of preventing or modifying the course of NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A scoping review was conducted to map the scientific literature and identify key concepts, research gaps, and evidence available to inform clinical practice, policymaking, and research. The scientific evidence demonstrated regular physical activity is associated with decreased risk of NAFLD development. Low physical activity is associated with a greater risk for disease progression and extrahepatic cancer. During routine health care visits, all patients with NAFLD should be screened for and counseled about physical activity benefits, including reduction in liver fat and improvement in body composition, fitness, and quality of life. While most physical activity benefits occur without clinically significant weight loss, evidence remains limited regarding the association between physical activity and liver fibrosis. At least 150 min/wk of moderate or 75 min/wk of vigorous-intensity physical activity are recommended for all patients with NAFLD. If a formal exercise training program is prescribed, aerobic exercise with the addition of resistance training is preferred.

CONCLUSIONS

The panel found consistent and compelling evidence that regular physical activity plays an important role in preventing NAFLD and improving intermediate clinical outcomes. Health care, fitness, and public health professionals are strongly encouraged to disseminate the information in this report. Future research should prioritize determining optimal strategies for promoting physical activity among individuals at risk and in those already diagnosed with NAFLD.

Development and Validation of a Novel Tool to Predict Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Scores in Cirrhosis, Using Administrative Datasets

Background

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts disease severity and mortality in cirrhosis. To improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative databases lacking laboratory data, we aimed to develop and externally validate claims-based MELD prediction models, using claims data linked to electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

We included adults with established cirrhosis in two Medicare-linked EHR networks (training and internal validation; 2007-2017), and a Medicaid-linked EHR network (external validation; 2000-2014). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with 5-fold cross-validation, we selected among 146 investigator-specified variables to develop models for predicting continuous MELD and relevant MELD categories (MELD<10, MELD≥15 and MELD≥20), with observed MELD calculated from laboratory data. Regression coefficients for each model were applied to the validation sets to predict patient-level MELD and assess model performance.

Results

We identified 4501 patients in the Medicare training set (mean age 75.1 years, 18.5% female, mean MELD=13.0), and 2435 patients in the Medicare validation set (mean age: 74.3 years, 31.7% female, mean MELD=12.3). Our final model for predicting continuous MELD included 112 variables, explaining 58% of observed MELD variability; in the Medicare validation set, the area-under-the-receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for MELD<10 and MELD≥15 were 0.84 and 0.90, respectively; the AUC for the model predicting MELD≥20 (using 27 variables) was 0.93. Overall, these models correctly classified 77% of patients with MELD<10 (95% CI=0.75-0.78), 85% of patients with MELD≥15 (95% CI=0.84-0.87), and 87% of patients with MELD≥20 (95% CI=0.86-0.88). Results were consistent in the external validation set (n=2240).

Conclusion

Our MELD prediction tools can be used to improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative datasets lacking laboratory data.

Cardiovascular disease risk in paediatric and young adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

OBJECTIVE

Longitudinal evidence is lacking regarding the long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in children and young adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

DESIGN

This nationwide cohort study included all Swedish children and young adults ≤25 years old with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966-2016; n=699). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology, and further categorised as simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NAFLD patients were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD (n=3353). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident MACE (ie, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure or cardiovascular mortality). In secondary analyses, we also explored rates of incident cardiac arrhythmias.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 16.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 33 NAFLD patients and 52 controls. NAFLD patients had significantly higher rates of MACE than controls (3.1 vs 0.9/1000 person-years (PY); difference=2.1/1000 PY; aHR=2.33, 95% CI=1.43 to 3.78), including higher rates of ischaemic heart disease (difference=1.4/1000 PY; aHR=3.07, 95% CI 1.62 to 5.83) and congestive heart failure (difference=0.5/1000 PY; aHR=3.89, 95% CI=1.20 to 12.64). Rates of incident MACE outcomes appeared to be further augmented with NASH (aHR=5.27, 95% CI=1.96 to 14.19). In secondary analyses, NAFLD patients also had significantly higher rates of cardiac arrythmias (aHR=3.16, 95% CI=1.49 to 6.68).

CONCLUSION

Compared with matched population controls, children and young adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher rates of incident MACE, including ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. Research to better characterise cardiovascular risk in children and young adults with NAFLD should be prioritised.

Prescribing Trends of Oral Anticoagulants in US Patients With Cirrhosis and Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Background Many patients with cirrhosis have concurrent nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data are lacking regarding recent oral anticoagulant (OAC) usage trends among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF. Methods and Results Using MarketScan claims data (2012-2019), we identified patients with cirrhosis and NVAF eligible for OACs (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 [men] or ≥3 [women]). We calculated the yearly proportion of patients prescribed a direct OAC (DOAC), warfarin, or no OAC. We stratified by high-risk features (decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease, or end-stage renal disease). Among 32 487 patients (mean age=71.6 years, 38.5% women, 15.1% with decompensated cirrhosis, mean CHA2DS2-VASc=4.2), 44.6% used OACs within 180 days of NVAF diagnosis, including DOACs (20.2%) or warfarin (24.4%). Compared with OAC nonusers, OAC users were less likely to have decompensated cirrhosis (18.6% versus 10.7%), thrombocytopenia (19.5% versus 12.5%), or chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease (15.5% versus 14.0%). Between 2012 and 2019, warfarin use decreased by 21.0% (32.0% to 11.0%), whereas DOAC use increased by 30.6% (7.4% to 38.0%), and among all DOACs between 2012 and 2019, apixaban was the most commonly prescribed (46.1%). Warfarin use decreased and DOAC use increased in all subgroups, including in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease, and across CHA2DS2-VASc categories. Among OAC users (2012-2019), DOAC use increased by 58.9% (18.7% to 77.6%). Among DOAC users, the greatest proportional increase was with apixaban (61.2%; P<0.001). Conclusions Among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF, DOAC use has increased substantially and surpassed warfarin, including in decompensated cirrhosis. Nevertheless, >55% of patients remain untreated, underscoring the need for clearer treatment guidance.

Autopsy histology data suggest cirrhosis is frequently under-reported on death certificates

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis may be asymptomatic yet contribute to ill health. Here, we studied how often cirrhosis is discovered first at an autopsy. We also examined how frequent this finding was not reported on formal death certificates.

METHODS

We used register-based data from all liver biopsies in Sweden performed after death. Cross-linkage to national registers was performed to examine how often such patients had accurate coding for cirrhosis on their death certificates.

FINDINGS

A total of 6187 patients with a liver biopsy performed after death, showing cirrhosis. Of these, 2523 (41%) did not have a diagnosis corresponding to cirrhosis on their final death certificate.

Pregnancy Outcomes in Women With Autoimmune Hepatitis - A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study With Histopathology

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic inflammatory liver condition that predominantly affects women. However, pregnancy risks remain unclear.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based cohort study (ESPRESSO) in Sweden from 1992 to 2016 including 309 singleton births in women with AIH and 1532 matched births in women from the general population was performed. AIH was diagnosed as a combination of administrative coding from medical diagnosis of AIH and liver biopsy data from Sweden's 28 pathology departments. Using conditional logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) for adverse pregnancy outcomes were determined.

RESULTS

Among 306 live births to women with AIH, 51 (16.7%) were preterm, compared with 70 of 1524 (4.6%) reference births. This corresponded to an OR of 5.10 for preterm birth (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.29-7.92), with similar odds using sibling comparators. Women with AIH with and without cirrhosis had similar odds for preterm birth. The AIH association was particularly strong with medically indicated preterm birth (OR, 13.01; 95% CI, 5.50-30.79). AIH was associated with low birth weight (OR, 5.31; 95% CI, 2.82-9.99) and low 5-minute Apgar score (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.14-10.49) offspring, but we found no association with congenital malformations (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.68-1.91), small for gestational age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.38-2.85), stillbirth (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.02-18.88), or neonatal death (OR, 7.42; 95% CI, 0.65-84.25). Maternal AIH was linked to an increased odds of cesarean section (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04-2.00) and preeclampsia (OR, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.01-6.64), but not to gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal AIH was associated with a 5-fold higher odds of preterm birth, and cirrhosis at diagnosis did not add to the impact of AIH on preterm birth. Future studies are needed to understand how to reduce this risk.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Chemoprevention with Generic Agents

Liver cancer, mainly hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a major cause of cancer-related death worldwide. With the global epidemic of obesity, the major HCC etiologies have been dynamically shifting from viral to metabolic liver diseases. This change has made HCC prevention difficult with increasingly elusive at-risk populations as rational target for preventive interventions. Besides ongoing efforts to reduce obesity and metabolic disorders, chemoprevention in patients who already have metabolic liver diseases may have a significant impact on the poor HCC prognosis. Hepatitis B- and hepatitis C-related HCC incidences have been substantially reduced by the new antivirals, but HCC risk can persist over a decade even after successful viral treatment, highlighting the need for HCC-preventive measures also in these patients. Experimental and retrospective studies have suggested potential utility of generic agents such as lipophilic statins and aspirin for HCC chemoprevention given their well-characterized safety profile, although anticipated efficacy may be modest. In this review, we overview recent clinical and translational studies of generic agents in the context of HCC chemoprevention under the contemporary HCC etiologies. We also discuss newly emerging approaches to overcome the challenges in clinical testing of the agents to facilitate their clinical translation.

Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Biopsy-proven Alcohol-related Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) frequently have risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but their long-term risk of CVD is not well-known, especially considering the competing risk of death from liver-related causes. It is further unknown if any excess risk varies across histological subgroups.

METHODS

We investigated the risk of CVD outcomes in 3488 persons with ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969 and 2016, compared with a matched reference population (n = 15,461). Administrative coding from national diagnostic and histopathology registers were used to define exposures and outcomes. Competing risk regression, taking non-CVD death into account and adjusting for potential confounders, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios for incident CVD up until Dec 31, 2019.

RESULTS

At baseline, patients with ALD had a median age of 58 years, 64% were men, and 2039 (58%) had cirrhosis on histology. The incidence rate of CVD was 35.6 per 1000 person-years in ALD compared with 19.0 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals. ALD was associated with a 2-fold increased short-term risk for CVD compared with matched reference individuals (subdistribution hazard ratio during the first year after diagnosis, 2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.95), but this risk decreased with time. Incidence rates of CVD were comparable across histological subgroups (ranging from 27.4 CVD cases per 1000 person-years in those with normal histology to 39.2 cases per 1000 person-years in those with cirrhosis).

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with biopsy-proven ALD have increased rates of CVD across histological subgroups compared with matched reference individuals, particularly just after ALD diagnosis. Active surveillance of modifiable CVD risk factors should be considered by clinicians treating patients with ALD.

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease among individuals with hepatic steatosis

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in adults with hepatic steatosis (HS). However, risk factors for CVD in HS are unknown. We aimed to identify factors associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with HS. We performed a nested cohort study of adults with HS detected on coronary computed tomography in the PROspective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of chest pain (PROMISE) trial. Obstructive CAD was defined as ≥50% coronary stenosis. MACE included hospitalization for unstable angina, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or all-cause death. Multivariate modeling, adjusted for age, sex, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score and body mass index, identified factors associated with obstructive CAD. Cox regression, adjusted for ASCVD risk score, determined the predictors of MACE. A total of 959 of 3,756 (mean age 59.4 years, 55.0% men) had HS. Obstructive CAD was present in 15.2% (145 of 959). Male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-1.2.84; p = 0.007), ASCVD risk score (aOR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07; p < 0.001), and n-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; aOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.38-2.62; p < 0.001) were independently associated with obstructive CAD. In the 25-months median follow-up, MACE occurred in 4.4% (42 of 959). Sedentary lifestyle (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.53, 95% CI 1.27-5.03; p = 0.008) and NT-proBNP (aOR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.01-2.25; p = 0.046) independently predicted MACE. Furthermore, the risk of MACE increased by 3% for every 1% increase in ASCVD risk score (aHR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05; p = 0.02). Conclusion: In individuals with HS, male sex, NT-pro-BNP, and ASCVD risk score are associated with obstructive CAD. Furthermore, ASCVD, NT-proBNP, and sedentary lifestyle are independent predictors of MACE. These factors, with further validation, may help risk-stratify adults with HS for incident CAD and MACE.