The nutrition transition to a stage of high obesity and noncommunicable disease prevalence dominated by ultra-processed foods is not inevitable

The Nutrition Transition model is presented with the nature and pace of change in key stages varying by location and subpopulations. At present, all high-income and many low- and middle-income countries are in a stage of the transition where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are dominating adult morbidity and mortality and are very high or growing rapidly in prevalence. Some countries still have key subpopulations facing hunger and undernutrition defined by stunting or extreme thinness among adults. We call these double burden of malnutrition countries. All low- and middle-income countries face rapid growth in consumption of ultra-processed food and beverages, but it is not inevitable that these countries will reach the same high levels of consumption seen in high-income countries, with all the negative impacts of this diet on health. With great political and civil society commitment to adoption of policies shown in other countries to have improved dietary choices and social norms around foods, we can arrest and even reverse the rapid shift to diets dominated by a stage of high ultra-processed food intake and increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.

Small business activity does not measure entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship policy mainly aims to promote innovative Schumpeterian entrepreneurship. However, the rate of entrepreneurship is commonly proxied using quantity-based metrics, such as small business activity, the self-employment rate, or the number of startups. We argue that those metrics give rise to misleading inferences regarding high-impact Schumpeterian entrepreneurship. To unambiguously identify high-impact entrepreneurs we focus on self-made billionaires (in US dollars) who appear on Forbes Magazine's list and who became wealthy by founding new firms. We identify 996 such billionaire entrepreneurs in 50 countries in 1996-2010, a systematic cross-country study of billionaire entrepreneurs. The rate of billionaire entrepreneurs correlates negatively with self-employment, small business ownership, and firm startup rates. Countries with higher income, higher trust, lower taxes, more venture capital investment, and lower regulatory burdens have higher billionaire entrepreneurship rates but less self-employment. Despite its limitations, the number of billionaire entrepreneurs appears to be a plausible cross-country measure of Schumpeterian entrepreneurship.

Do cigarette prices motivate smokers to quit? New evidence from the ITC survey

AIMS

To examine the importance of cigarette prices in influencing smoking cessation and the motivation to quit.

DESIGN

We use longitudinal data from three waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey (ITC). The study contrasts smoking cessation and motivation to quit among US and Canadian smokers and evaluates how this relationship is modified by cigarette prices, nicotine dependence and health knowledge. Different price measures are used to understand how the ability to purchase cheaper cigarettes may reduce the influence of prices. Our first model examines whether cigarette prices affect motivation to quit smoking using Generalized Estimating Equations to predict cessation stage and a least squares model to predict the change in cessation stage. The second model evaluates quitting behavior over time. The probability of quitting is estimated with Generalized Estimating Equations and a transition model to account for the 'left-truncation' of the data.

SETTINGS

US and Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

4352 smokers at Wave 1, 2000 smokers completing all three waves.

MEASUREMENTS

Motivation to quit, cigarette prices, nicotine dependence and health knowledge.

FINDINGS

Smokers living in areas with higher cigarette prices are significantly more motivated to quit. There is limited evidence to suggest that price increases over time may also increase quit motivation. Higher cigarette prices increase the likelihood of actual quitting, with the caveat that results are statistically significant in one out of two models. Access to cheaper cigarette sources does not impede cessation although smokers would respond more aggressively (in terms of cessation) to price increases if cheaper cigarette sources were not available.

CONCLUSIONS

This research provides a unique opportunity to study smoking cessation among adult smokers and their response to cigarette prices in a market where they are able to avoid tax increases by purchasing cigarettes from cheaper sources. Higher cigarette prices appear to be associated with greater motivation to stop smoking, an effect which does not appear to be mitigated by cheaper cigarette sources. The paper supports the use of higher prices as a means of encouraging smoking cessation and motivation to quit.

Exposure to inequality affects support for redistribution

The distribution of wealth in the United States and countries around the world is highly skewed. How does visible economic inequality affect well-off individuals' support for redistribution? Using a placebo-controlled field experiment, I randomize the presence of poverty-stricken people in public spaces frequented by the affluent. Passersby were asked to sign a petition calling for greater redistribution through a "millionaire's tax." Results from 2,591 solicitations show that in a real-world-setting exposure to inequality decreases affluent individuals' willingness to redistribute. The finding that exposure to inequality begets inequality has fundamental implications for policymakers and informs our understanding of the effects of poverty, inequality, and economic segregation. Confederate race and socioeconomic status, both of which were randomized, are shown to interact such that treatment effects vary according to the race, as well as gender, of the subject.

Building a strategy for obesity prevention one piece at a time: the case of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation

Obesity is a major public health issue in Canada that is reaching historically high levels in spite of efforts, targeted primarily at individual behaviour, to promote changes in diet and physical activity. Urgency for change at the population level compels moving "upstream" toward multilevel, societal approaches for obesity prevention. Public health researchers, advocates and policy makers are increasingly recognizing the current food environment, including availability, pricing, and marketing of foods and beverages, promotes overconsumption of unhealthy food and beverage choices and have identified the food environment as a point for intervention for obesity prevention. In April 2011, a consensus conference with invited experts from research, policy and practice fields was held. The conference aimed to build consensus around policy levers to address environmental determinants of obesity, including next logical steps toward further policy action. Using economic policies, such as taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), was discussed as one opportunity to promote healthy eating. This article reports on the consensus discussion that led to recommendations to tax sugar-sweetened beverages as one step in a multipronged comprehensive approach to obesity prevention. This recommendation is based on a synthesis of available evidence, including evidence regarding political feasibility, and potential impacts of a tax. In addition, we present additional primary research using current SSB consumption data to model the economic and behavioural impact of such a tax in Canada.

Tobacco industry strategies undermine government tax policy: evidence from commercial data

OBJECTIVE

Taxation equitably reduces smoking, the leading cause of health inequalities. The tobacco industry (TI) can, however, undermine the public health gains realised from tobacco taxation through its pricing strategies. This study aims to examine contemporary TI pricing strategies in the UK and implications for tobacco tax policy.

DESIGN

Review of commercial literature and longitudinal analysis of tobacco sales and price data.

SETTING

A high-income country with comprehensive tobacco control policies and high tobacco taxes (UK).

PARTICIPANTS

2009 to 2015 Nielsen Scantrak electronic point of sale systems data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Tobacco segmentation; monthly prices, sales volumes of and net revenue from roll-your-own (RYO) and factory-made (FM) cigarettes by segment; use of price-marking and pack sizes.

RESULTS

The literature review and sales data concurred that both RYO and FM cigarettes were segmented by price. Despite regular tax increases, average real prices for the cheapest FM and RYO segments remained steady from 2013 while volumes grew. Low prices were maintained through reductions in the size of packs and price-marking. Each year, at the point the budget is implemented, the TI drops its revenue by up to 18 pence per pack, absorbing the tax increases (undershifting). Undershifting is most marked for the cheapest segments.

CONCLUSIONS

The TI currently uses a variety of strategies to keep tobacco cheap. The implementation of standardised packaging will prevent small pack sizes and price-marking but further changes in tax policy are needed to minimise the TI's attempts to prevent sudden price increases.

Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030

BACKGROUND

The Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China's policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030.

METHODS

First, a 'business as usual' scenario for China's cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030.

FINDINGS

Under the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (-3%~47%) compared with 2016.

CONCLUSION

Significantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures.

The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use

We study the effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette taxes on use of these products among adults in the United States. Data are drawn from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey over the period 2011 to 2018. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find evidence that higher traditional cigarette tax rates reduce adult traditional cigarette use and increase adult e-cigarette use. Similarly, we find that higher e-cigarette tax rates increase traditional cigarette use and reduce e-cigarette use. Cross-tax effects imply that the products are economic substitutes. Our results suggest that a proposed national e-cigarette tax of $1.65 per milliliter of vaping liquid would raise the proportion of adults who smoke cigarettes daily by approximately one percentage point, translating to 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers compared to the counterfactual of not having the tax.

Self-reported price of cigarettes, consumption and compensatory behaviours in a cohort of Mexican smokers before and after a cigarette tax increase

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of a 2007 cigarette tax increase from 110% to 140% of the price to the retailer on cigarette price and consumption among Mexican smokers, including efforts to offset price increases.

METHODS

Data were analysed from the 2006 and 2007 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Survey in Mexico, which is a population-based cohort of adult smokers. Self-reported price of last cigarette purchase, place of last purchase, preferred brand, daily consumption and quit behaviour were assessed at baseline and follow-up.

RESULTS

Self-reported cigarette prices increased by 12.7% after the tax increase, with prices for international brands increasing more than for national brands (13.5% vs 8.7%, respectively). Although the tax increases were not fully passed onto consumers particularly on national brands, no evidence was found for smokers changing behaviour to offset price increases. Consistent declines in consumption across groups defined by sociodemographic and smoking-related psychosocial variables suggest a relatively uniform impact of the tax increase across subpopulations. However, decreased consumption appeared limited to people who smoked relatively more cigarettes a day (>5 cigarettes/day). Average daily consumption among lighter smokers did not significantly decline. A total of 13% (n=98) of the sample reported being quit for a month or more at follow-up. In multivariate models, lighter smokers were more likely than heavier smokers to be quit.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the 2007 tax increase was passed on to consumers, whose consumption generally declined. Since no other tobacco control policies or programmes were implemented during the period analysed, the tax increase appears likely to have decreased consumption.

Impact of smoking reduced nicotine content cigarettes on sensitivity to cigarette price: further results from a multi-site clinical trial

AIMS

To assess the impact of a reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes on estimated consumption of reduced nicotine cigarettes and usual brand cigarettes at a variety of hypothetical prices.

DESIGN

Double-blind study with participants assigned randomly to receive cigarettes for 6 weeks that were either usual brand or an investigational cigarette with one of five nicotine contents.

SETTING

Ten sites across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 839 eligible adult smokers randomized from 2013 to 2014.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Participants received their usual brand or an investigational cigarette with one of five nicotine contents: 15.8 (primary control), 5.2, 2.4, 1.3, or 0.4 mg/g.

MEASUREMENTS

The Cigarette Purchase Task was completed at baseline and at the week 6 post-randomization visit.

FINDINGS

Compared with normal nicotine content controls, the lowest nicotine content (0.4 mg/g) reduced the number of study cigarettes participants estimated they would smoke at a range of prices [mean reduction relative to 15.8 mg/g at a price of $4.00/pack: 9.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.81,12.19]. The lowest nicotine content also reduced the maximum amount of money allocated to study cigarettes and the price at which participants reported they would stop buying study cigarettes [median reduction relative to 15.8 mg/g, 95% CI = $8.21 (4.27,12.15) per day and $0.44 (0.17,0.71) per cigarette, respectively]. A reduction in nicotine content to the lowest level also reduced the maximum amount of money allocated to usual brand cigarettes (median reduction relative to 15.8 mg/g: $4.39 per day, 95% CI = 1.88,6.90).

CONCLUSIONS

In current smokers, a reduction in nicotine content may reduce cigarette consumption, reduce the reinforcement value of cigarettes and increase cessation if reduced nicotine content cigarettes were the only cigarette available for purchase.

Price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, EconLit and the Web of Science without language or time restrictions.

STUDY SELECTION

Two reviewers screened title and abstracts, then full texts, independently and in duplicate. We based eligibility criteria on study design (interventional or observational), population (individuals or communities without geographic restrictions), intervention (price change) and outcome (change in demand).

DATA EXTRACTION

We abstracted data on study features, outcome measures, statistical approach, and single best own- and cross-price elasticity estimates with respect to cigarettes. We conducted a random effects meta-analysis for estimates of similar product, outcome and country income level. For other studies we reported median elasticities by product and country income level.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We analysed 36 studies from 15 countries yielding 125 elasticity estimates. A 10% price increase would reduce demand by: 8.3% for cigars (95% CI 2.9 to 13.8), 6.4% for roll your owns (95% CI 4.3 to 8.4), 5.7% for bidis (95% CI 4.3 to 7.1) and 2.1% for smokeless tobacco (95% CI -0.6 to 4.8). Median price elasticities for all ten products were also negative. Results from few studies that examined cross-price elasticity suggested a positive substitution effect between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products.

CONCLUSIONS

There is sufficient evidence in support of the effectiveness of price increases to reduce consumption of non-cigarette tobacco products as it is for cigarettes. Positive substitutability between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products suggest that tax and price increases need to be simultaneous and comparable across all tobacco products.

Comparing alcohol taxation throughout the European Union

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The World Health Organization recommends increasing alcohol taxes as a 'best-buy' approach to reducing alcohol consumption and improving population health. Alcohol may be taxed based on sales value, product volume or alcohol content; however, duty structures and rates vary, both among countries and between beverage types. From a public health perspective, the best duty structure links taxation level to alcohol content, keeps pace with inflation and avoids substantial disparities between different beverage types. This data note compares current alcohol duty structures and levels throughout the 28 European Union (EU) Member States and how these vary by alcohol content, and also considers implications for public health.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Descriptive analysis using administrative data, European Union, July 2018.

MEASUREMENTS

Beverage-specific alcohol duty rates per UK alcohol unit (8 g ethanol) in pounds sterling at a range of different alcoholic strengths.

FINDINGS

Only 50% of Member States levy any duty on wine and several levy duty on spirits and beer at or close to the EU minimum level. There is at least a 10-fold difference in the effective duty rate per unit between the highest- and lowest-duty countries for each beverage type. Duty rates for beer and spirits stay constant with strength in the majority of countries, while rates for wine and cider generally fall as strength increases. Duty rates are generally higher for spirits than other beverage types and are generally lowest in eastern Europe and highest in Finland, Sweden, Ireland and the United Kingdom.

CONCLUSIONS

Different European Union countries enact very different alcohol taxation policies, despite a partially restrictive legal framework. There is only limited evidence that alcohol duties are designed to minimize public health harms by ensuring that drinks containing more alcohol are taxed at higher rates. Instead, tax rates appear to reflect national alcohol production and consumption patterns.

Classifying Alcohol Control Policies with Respect to Expected Changes in Consumption and Alcohol-Attributable Harm: The Example of Lithuania, 2000-2019

Due to the high levels of alcohol use, alcohol-attributable mortality and burden of disease, and detrimental drinking patterns, Lithuania implemented a series of alcohol control policies within a relatively short period of time, between 2008 and 2019. Based on their expected impact on alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable harm, as well as their target population, these policies have been classified using a set of objective criteria and expert opinion. The classification criteria included: positive vs. negative outcomes, mainly immediate vs. delayed outcomes, and general population vs. specific group outcomes. The judgement of the alcohol policy experts converged on the objective criteria, and, as a result, two tiers of intervention were identified: Tier 1—highly effective general population interventions with an anticipated immediate impact; Tier 2—other interventions aimed at the general population. In addition, interventions directed at specific populations were identified. This adaptable methodological approach to alcohol control policy classification is intended to provide guidance and support for the evaluation of alcohol policies elsewhere, to lay the foundation for the critical assessment of the policies to improve health and increase life expectancy, and to reduce crime and violence.

Support for, and perceived effectiveness of, the UK soft drinks industry levy among UK adults: cross-sectional analysis of the International Food Policy Study

OBJECTIVES

To answer four questions: What are attitudes, knowledge and social norms around sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs)? What are current levels of trust in messages on SSBs? What is current support for, and perceived effectiveness of, the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL)? What is the association between attitudes, knowledge, social norms, trust, SSB consumption and sociodemographic factors; and support for, and perceived effectiveness of, the SDIL?

DESIGN

Cross-sectional online survey.

SETTING

UK.

PARTICIPANTS

UK respondents to the 2017 International Food Policy Study aged 18-64 years who provided information on all variables of interest (n=3104).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-reported perceived effectiveness of, and support for, the SDIL.

RESULTS

Most participants supported the SDIL (70%), believed it would be effective (71%), had a positive attitude to SSBs (62%), had knowledge of the link between SSBs and obesity (90%), and trusted messages from health experts (61%), but not those from the food and beverage industry (73%). Nearly half (46%) had negative social norms about drinking SSBs. In adjusted models, older age, non-consumption of SSBs, social norms to not drinks SSBs, knowledge of the link between SSBs and obesity and trust in health expert messages were associated with greater support for the SDIL, whereas having dependent children and trusting messages from the food and beverage industry were associated with less support. In adjusted models, older age was associated with lower perceived effectiveness of the SDIL, whereas social norms to not drink SSBs, negative attitudes to SSBs and trusting messages from health experts and the food and beverage industry were associated with greater perceived effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

There was strong support for the SDIL and belief that it would be effective. Those with more 'public health' orientated norms and trust were generally more likely to support the SDIL or believe that it would be effective.

Impact of cigarette minimum price laws on the retail price of cigarettes in the USA

INTRODUCTION

Cigarette price increases prevent youth initiation, reduce cigarette consumption and increase the number of smokers who quit. Cigarette minimum price laws (MPLs), which typically require cigarette wholesalers and retailers to charge a minimum percentage mark-up for cigarette sales, have been identified as an intervention that can potentially increase cigarette prices. 24 states and the District of Columbia have cigarette MPLs.

METHODS

Using data extracted from SCANTRACK retail scanner data from the Nielsen company, average cigarette prices were calculated for designated market areas in states with and without MPLs in three retail channels: grocery stores, drug stores and convenience stores. Regression models were estimated using the average cigarette pack price in each designated market area and calendar quarter in 2009 as the outcome variable.

RESULTS

The average difference in cigarette pack prices are 46 cents in the grocery channel, 29 cents in the drug channel and 13 cents in the convenience channel, with prices being lower in states with MPLs for all three channels.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings that MPLs do not raise cigarette prices could be the result of a lack of compliance and enforcement by the state or could be attributed to the minimum state mark-up being lower than the free-market mark-up for cigarettes. Rather than require a minimum mark-up, which can be nullified by promotional incentives and discounts, states and countries could strengthen MPLs by setting a simple 'floor price' that is the true minimum price for all cigarettes or could prohibit discounts to consumers and retailers.

Price, tax and tobacco product substitution in Zambia: findings from the ITC Zambia Surveys

BACKGROUND

In Zambia, the number of cigarette users is growing, and the lack of strong tax policies is likely an important cause. When adjusted for inflation, levels of tobacco tax have not changed since 2007. Moreover, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, a less-costly alternative to factory-made (FM) cigarettes, is highly prevalent.

DATA AND METHODS

We modelled the probability of FM and RYO cigarette smoking using individual-level data obtained from the 2012 and 2014 waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Zambia Survey. We used two estimation methods: the standard estimation method involving separate random effects probit models and a method involving a system of equations (incorporating bivariate seemingly unrelated random effects probit) to estimate price elasticities of FM and RYO cigarettes and their cross-price elasticities.

RESULTS

The estimated price elasticities of smoking prevalence are -0.20 and -0.03 for FM and RYO cigarettes, respectively. FM and RYO are substitutes; that is, when the price of one of the products goes up, some smokers switch to the other product. The effects are stronger for substitution from FM to RYO than vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

This study affirms that increasing cigarette tax with corresponding price increases could significantly reduce cigarette use in Zambia. Furthermore, reducing between-product price differences would reduce substitution from FM to RYO. Since RYO use is associated with lower socioeconomic status, efforts to decrease RYO use, including through tax/price approaches and cessation assistance, would decrease health inequalities in Zambian society and reduce the negative economic consequences of tobacco use experienced by the poor.

Illicit cigarette trade in South Africa: 2002-2017

BACKGROUND

Increasing cigarette excise taxes is widely recognised as the most effective measure to reduce the demand for cigarettes. The presence of illicit trade undermines the effectiveness of tax increases as both a public health and a fiscal measure, because it introduces cheaper alternatives to legal, full-priced cigarettes.

OBJECTIVE

To assess trends in the size of the illicit cigarette market in South Africa from 2002 to 2017 using gap analysis.

METHODS

Tax-paid cigarette sales are compared with consumption estimates from two nationally representative surveys: the All Media and Products Survey and the National Income Dynamics Study. We explore the size of the illicit cigarette market and its changes over the period 2002-2017.

RESULTS

Since 2009, illicit trade has increased sharply. We estimate that illicit trade is between 30% and 35% of the total market in 2017. The acceleration in the growth of the illicit market since 2015 corresponds with a turbulent time at the South African Revenue Service, when many of the enforcement functions were greatly reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

The current levels of illicit trade are extremely high and need to be addressed urgently by implementing effective control mechanisms such as a track and trace system to monitor the production, taxation, and sale of cigarettes.

Smoking practices in New York City: the use of a population-based survey to guide policy-making and programming

To inform New York City's (NYC's) tobacco control program, we identified the neighborhoods with the highest smoking rates, estimated the burden of second-hand smoke exposure, assessed the early response to state taxation, and examined cessation practices. We used a stratified random design to conduct a digit-dialed telephone survey in 2002 among 9,674 New York City adults. Our main outcome measures included prevalence of cigarette smoking, exposure to second-hand smoke, the response of smokers to state tax increases, and cessation practices. Even after controlling for sociodemographic factors (age, race/ethnicity, income, education, marital status, employment status, and foreign-born status) smoking rates were highest in Central Harlem and in the South Bronx. Sixteen percent of nonsmokers reported frequent exposure to second-hand smoke at home or in a workplace. Among smokers with a child with asthma, only 33% reported having a no-smoking policy in their homes. More than one fifth of smokers reported reducing the number of cigarettes they smoked in response to the state tax increase. Of current smokers who tried to quit, 65% used no cessation aid. These data were used to inform New York City's smoke-free legislation, taxation, public education, and a free nicotine patch give-away program. In conclusion, large, local surveys can provide essential data to effectively advocate for, plan, implement, and evaluate a comprehensive tobacco control program.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies in response to excise tax policies: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To explore what is known about the tobacco industry's (TI) price-based responses to tobacco excise tax policies and whether these vary by country income group using a systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Studies assessing TI pricing tactics were identified via searches of five online databases using a combination of search keywords.

STUDY SELECTION

Inclusion criteria were applied by two reviewers independently who screened all search results (titles and abstracts) for possible inclusion. They identified 37 publications that reported TI pricing tactics.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study details were tabulated, and information was extracted on the country income group, population characteristics, excise tax structure, and pricing strategies.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of the 37 publications identified, 22 were conducted in high-income countries, while 15 covered low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Major pricing strategies employed were: differentially shifting taxes between products (35 studies); launching new brands/products as pathways for downtrading (six studies), product promotions and different prices for the same products for different customers (six studies); price smoothing (two studies); and changing product attributes such as length/size of cigarettes or production processes (three studies).

CONCLUSIONS

While there is limited evidence to fully ascertain industry responses to tax increases, this review suggests that the TI widely uses a multitude of sophisticated pricing strategies across different settings around the world with the intention of undermining tax policies, thereby increasing tobacco consumption and maximising their profits. There is a need for further research in this area especially in LMICs so that effective policy responses can be developed.

Gaps in the Evidence on Population Interventions to Reduce Consumption of Sugars: A Review of Reviews

There is currently considerable attention directed to identifying promising interventions to reduce consumption of sugars among populations around the world. A review of systematic reviews was conducted to identify gaps in the evidence on such interventions. Medline, EMBASE CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched to identify systematic reviews published in English from January 2005 to May 2017 and considering research on interventions to reduce sugar intake. Twelve systematic reviews that considered price changes, interventions to alter the food available within specific environments, and health promotion and education programs were examined. Each of the identified reviews focused on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). The existing literature provides some promising indications in terms of the potential of interventions to reduce SSB consumption among populations. However, a common thread is the limited scope of available evidence, combined with the heterogeneity of methods and measures used in existing studies, which limits conclusions that can be reached regarding the effectiveness of interventions. Reviewed studies typically had limited follow-up periods, making it difficult to assess the sustainability of effects. Further, there is a lack of studies that address the complex context within which interventions are implemented and evaluated, and little is known about the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Identified gaps speak to the need for a more holistic approach to sources of sugars beyond SSBs, consensus on measures and methods, attention to the implementation of interventions in relation to context, and careful monitoring to identify intended and unintended consequences.

Alcohol policy and gender: a modelling study estimating gender-specific effects of alcohol pricing policies

AIMS

To describe gender differences in alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and alcohol-attributable harm. To model the effects of alcohol pricing policies on male and female consumption and hospitalizations.

DESIGN

Epidemiological simulation using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 4.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 18+ years, England.

INTERVENTIONS

Three alcohol pricing policies: 10% duty increase and minimum unit prices (MUP) of £0.50 and £0.70 per UK unit.

MEASURES

Gender-specific baseline and key outcomes data: annual beverage-specific units of alcohol consumed and beverage-specific alcohol expenditure (household surveys). Alcohol-attributable hospital admissions (administrative data). Key model parameters: literature-based own- and cross-price elasticities for 10 beverage-by-location categories (e.g. off-trade beer). Sensitivity analysis with new gender-specific elasticities. Literature-based risk functions linking consumption and harm, gender-disaggregated where evidence was available. Population subgroups: 120 subgroups defined by gender (primary focus), age, deprivation quintile and baseline weekly consumption.

FINDINGS

Women consumed 59.7% of their alcohol as off-trade wine while men consumed 49.7% as beer. Women drinkers consumed fewer units annually than men (494 versus 895) and a smaller proportion of women were high-risk drinkers (4.8 versus 7.2%). Moderate drinking women had lower hospital admission rates than men (44 versus 547 per 100 000), but rates were similar for high-risk drinking women and men (14 294 versus 13 167 per 100 000). All three policies led to larger estimated reductions in consumption and admission rates among men than women. For example, a £0.50 MUP led to a 5.3% reduction in consumption and a 4.1% reduction in admissions for men but a 0.7% reduction in consumption and a 1.6% reduction in hospitalizations for women.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and harm show strong gender patterns among adult drinkers in England. Alcohol pricing policies are estimated to be more effective at reducing consumption and harm for men than women.

Do state regulations on e-cigarettes have impacts on the e-cigarette prevalence?

BACKGROUND

We examine the association among five types of state regulations on electronic cigarettes (defining e-cigarettes, special tax, packaging, youth access and licensure) and initiation and current usage of e-cigarettes in 50 US states and the District of Columbia.

METHODS

Data came from the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the US e-cigarette regulations-50 state review by the Public Health Law Center. Logistic regressions were used to determine the odds of initiation and current use of e-cigarettes among individuals aged 18-24, 25-34 and the whole sample, adjusting for socio-demographic covariates.

RESULTS

Despite the short history of state laws on e-cigarettes, each of the five state laws was associated with lower odds of initiation and use of e-cigarettes in the whole sample. In the 18-24 age group, only the licensure was associated with lower initiation. In the 25-34 age group, the licensure and taxation were related to lower initiation and current usage. There were significant differences of e-cigarette initiation and usage based on the number of state laws regulating e-cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicates the potential of states' policy efforts to regulate e-cigarettes comprehensively in leading significant changes to e-cigarette prevalence in their populations.

Estimated impact of the GST on tobacco products in India

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential impact of the goods and services tax (GST) on price, consumption and tax revenue from tobacco products in India and across states.

METHODS

Data on prices, tax rates and tax revenue are used to estimate a benchmark scenario prior to the GST implementation in 2017-2018. Using own-price elasticity of demand for tobacco products, we estimate the impact of GST at the state level and the aggregate state-wise impact to obtain the national level impact.

FINDINGS

We predict that the statutory GST rate of 28% plus compensation cess will increase the price of cigarettes, bidi and smokeless tobacco by 0.18%, 8.8% and 6%, respectively, and, as a result, it will reduce the weighted average consumption by 0.3%, 10% and 6% and increase tax revenue by 0.17%, 35% and 4.7%, respectively. Most states will experience a fall in tax revenue from tobacco products by more than 50% compared with the value-added tax revenue they collected pre-GST. The GST compensation cess will have to be used to compensate states' revenue shortfalls.

CONCLUSIONS

The GST has increased the complexity of the tax system for tobacco products. In particular, for cigarettes, the specific cess constitutes the majority of tax revenue, and therefore, it must be revised regularly to protect revenue and keep real prices from falling. In addition, India should reintroduce excise taxation on all tobacco products, at least in part, on top of the GST, to make them less affordable and to smooth the transition after the expiration of the compensation cess.