Explaining the racial difference in AKI incidence

African Americans face higher risk of AKI than Caucasians. The extent to which this increased risk is because of differences in clinical, socioeconomic, or genetic risk factors is unknown. We evaluated 10,588 African-American and Caucasian participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a community-based prospective cohort of middle-aged individuals. Participants were followed from baseline study visit (1996-1999) to first hospitalization for AKI (defined by billing code), ESRD, death, or December 31, 2010. African-American participants were slightly younger (61.7 versus 63.1 years, P<0.001), were more often women (64.5% versus 53.2%, P<0.001), and had higher baseline eGFR compared with Caucasians. Annual family income, education level, and prevalence of health insurance were lower among African Americans than Caucasians. The unadjusted incidence of hospitalized AKI was 7.4 cases per 1000 person-years among African Americans and 5.8 cases per 1000 person-years among Caucasians (P=0.002). The elevated risk of AKI among African Americans persisted after adjustment for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, kidney markers, and time-varying number of hospitalizations (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.01 to 1.43; P=0.04); however, accounting for differences in income and/or insurance by race attenuated the association (P>0.05). High-risk APOL1 variants did not associate with AKI among African Americans (demographic-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.69 to 1.65; P=0.77). In summary, the higher risk of AKI among African Americans may be related to disparities in socioeconomic status.

Serum fibroblast growth factor-23 is associated with incident kidney disease

Fibroblast growth factor-23 is a bone-derived hormone that increases urinary phosphate excretion and inhibits hydroxylation of 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Recent studies suggest that fibroblast growth factor-23 may be an early biomarker of CKD progression. However, its role in kidney function decline in the general population is unknown. We assessed the relationship between baseline (1990-1992) serum levels of intact fibroblast growth factor-23 and incident ESRD in 13,448 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants (56.1% women, 74.7% white) followed until December 31, 2010. At baseline, the mean age of participants was 56.9 years and the mean eGFR was 97 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). During a median follow-up of 19 years, 267 participants (2.0%) developed ESRD. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, baseline eGFR, traditional CKD risk factors, and markers of mineral metabolism, the highest fibroblast growth factor-23 quintile (>54.6 pg/ml) compared with the lowest quintile (<32.0 pg/ml) was associated with risk of developing ESRD (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 3.36; trend P<0.001). In a large, community-based study comprising a broad range of kidney function, higher baseline fibroblast growth factor-23 levels were associated with increased risk of incident ESRD independent of the baseline level of kidney function and a number of other risk factors.

Serum phosphorus and mortality in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III): effect modification by fasting

BACKGROUND

Serum phosphorus levels have been associated with mortality in some but not all studies. Because dietary intake prior to measurement can affect serum phosphorus levels, we hypothesized that the association between serum phosphorus level and mortality is strongest in those who have fasted longer.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative sample of 12,984 participants 20 years or older in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994).

FACTORS

Serum phosphorus level, fasting duration (dichotomized as ≥ 12 or < 12 hours).

OUTCOMES

All-cause and cardiovascular mortality determined by death certificate data from the National Death Index.

MEASUREMENTS

Serum phosphorus measured in a central laboratory and fasting duration recorded as time since food or drink other than water was consumed.

RESULTS

Individuals fasting 12 or more hours had lower serum phosphorus levels than those fasting less than 12 hours (3.34 vs 3.55 mg/dL; P < 0.001) and higher correlation with repeat measurement (0.66 vs 0.53; P = 0.002). In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, the highest quartile of serum phosphorus was associated with increased mortality in participants fasting 12 or more hours (adjusted HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.38-2.20; reference, lowest quartile) but not in participants fasting less than 12 hours (adjusted HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.89-1.32; P for interaction = 0.002). Relationships were consistent using 8 hours as the fasting cutoff point or cardiovascular mortality as the outcome.

LIMITATIONS

Observational study, lack of fibroblast growth factor 23 or intact parathyroid hormone measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

Fasting but not nonfasting serum phosphorus levels were associated with increased mortality. Risk prognostication based on serum phosphorus may be improved using fasting levels.

Potential effects of reclassifying CKD as a coronary heart disease risk equivalent in the US population

BACKGROUND

Persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for cardiovascular disease events, but are not classified as such in current US cholesterol treatment guidelines. We examined potential effects of modified guidelines in which CKD was considered a "coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equivalent" for risk stratification.

STUDY DESIGN

Nationally representative cross-sectional study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

4,823 adults 20 years or older from the 2007-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PREDICTORS

Cardiovascular risk stratification based on current US cholesterol treatment guidelines and 2 simulated scenarios in which CKD stages 3-5 or CKD stages 1-5 were considered a CHD risk equivalent.

OUTCOMES & MEASUREMENTS

Proportion of persons with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol at levels above treatment targets and above the threshold for lipid-lowering therapy initiation, based on current guidelines and the 2 simulated scenarios.

RESULTS

Under current guidelines, 55.1 million adults in 2010 did not achieve the target LDL cholesterol goal. Of these, 25.2 million had sufficiently elevated levels to meet recommendations for initiating lipid-lowering therapy; 12.1 million were receiving this therapy but remained above goal. When CKD stages 3-5 were considered a CHD risk equivalent, 59.2 million persons were above target LDL cholesterol goals, with 28.5 million and 13.3 million meriting therapy initiation and intensification, respectively. When CKD stages 1-5 were considered a CHD risk equivalent, 65.2 million adults were above goal, with 33.9 million and 14.4 million meriting therapy initiation and intensification, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

CKD and LDL cholesterol defined using a single laboratory value.

CONCLUSIONS

Many adults in the United States currently do not meet recommended goals for LDL cholesterol levels. Modifying the current cholesterol guidelines to include CKD as a CHD risk equivalent would lead to a substantial increase in both the number of persons with levels above LDL cholesterol treatment targets and those recommended to initiate lipid-lowering therapy.

Troponin I and NT-proBNP and the association of systolic blood pressure with outcomes in incident hemodialysis patients: the Choices for Healthy Outcomes in Caring for ESRD (CHOICE) Study

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty regarding treatment of hypertension in hemodialysis patients due to the observed J-shaped association between blood pressure (BP) and death. We hypothesized that this association reflects confounding by cardiovascular disease (CVD) and that stratification by CVD biomarkers, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal fragment of prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), might change this association.

STUDY DESIGN

National prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

446 incident hemodialysis patients.

PREDICTOR

Predialysis systolic BP.

OUTCOMES

Mortality (all-cause and CVD) and first CVD event assessed using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbid conditions, and clinical factors.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants with cTnI level ≥0.1 ng/mL or NT-proBNP level ≥9,252 pg/mL were classified as the high-biomarker group; remaining participants were included in the low-biomarker group.

RESULTS

Participants in the high-biomarker group (n=138 [31%]) were older (61 vs. 57 years) and had a higher prevalence of CVD (67% vs. 23%), but similar baseline BPs (152 vs. 153 mm Hg). There were 323 deaths (143 from CVD) and 271 CVD events. The high-biomarker group had a higher risk of mortality than the low-biomarker group (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.37-2.24). The association between BP and outcomes differed between the 2 biomarker groups (P for interaction=0.01, 0.2, and 0.07 for all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and first CVD event, respectively). In the low-biomarker group, BP was associated with greater risk of outcomes: HR per 10 mm Hg higher BP was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.01-1.14), 1.10 (95% CI, 0.96-1.25), and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.96-1.13) for all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and first CVD event, respectively. Importantly, lower BP was not associated with increased risk of outcomes in stratified models, including for those in high biomarker group.

LIMITATIONS

BP measurements not standardized.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed J-shaped association between BP and outcomes in hemodialysis patients is due to confounding by subclinical CVD. A stratification approach based on cTnI and NT-proBNP levels has the potential to inform BP treatment in hemodialysis patients.

Cystatin C- and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate, vascular disease, and mortality in persons with diabetes in the U.S

OBJECTIVE Serum cystatin C is an alternative to serum creatinine for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR), since cystatin C is less influenced by age and muscle mass. Among persons with diabetes, we compared the performance of GFR estimated using cystatin C (eGFRcys) with that using creatinine (eGFRcr) for the identification of reduced kidney function and its association with diabetes complications. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We analyzed data from adult participants from the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with available cystatin C (N = 4,457). Kidney function was dichotomized as preserved (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) or reduced (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) using the 2012 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) cystatin C and the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equations. RESULTS Among 778 persons with diabetes, the prevalence of reduced kidney function was 16.5% using eGFRcr and 22.0% using eGFRcys. More persons with diabetes were reclassified from preserved kidney function by eGFRcr to reduced kidney function by eGFRcys than persons without diabetes (odds ratio 3.1 [95% CI 1.9-4.9], P < 0.001). The associations between lower eGFR and higher prevalence of albuminuria, retinopathy, peripheral arterial disease, and coronary artery disease were robust regardless of filtration marker. Similarly, the risk of all-cause mortality increased with lower eGFRcr and eGFRcys. Only lower eGFRcys was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS More persons with diabetes had reduced kidney function by eGFRcys than by eGFRcr, and lower eGFRcys was strongly associated with diabetes complications. Whether eGFRcys is superior to eGFRcr in approximating true kidney function in a diabetic population requires additional study.

Sequelae of early hospital readmission after kidney transplantation

We recently elucidated risk factors for early hospital readmission (EHR) following kidney transplantation (KT). We now sought to quantify the independent associations between EHR and post-KT outcomes, including late hospital readmission (LHR: 1 year after EHR window), death-censored graft loss and mortality, among Medicare-primary KT recipients (2000-2005). Of 32961 KT recipients, 7.7% had at least one readmission within 3 days of discharge, 14.8% within 7 days, 22.4% within 14 days and 30.5% within 30 days of discharge after the initial KT hospitalization. KT recipients who experienced EHR within 30 days of discharge after the initial KT hospitalization were more likely to have experienced LHR (29.6% vs. 9.0%, p<0.001) and were at 3.02 times higher (95% CI: 2.82-3.23, p<0.001) risk of LHR. Additionally, EHR was associated with death-censored graft loss (deceased donor recipients hazard ratio [HR]: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.36-1.51, p<0.001 and live donor recipients HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.40-1.70, p<0.001) and mortality (deceased donor recipients HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.43-1.58, p<0.001 and live donor recipients HR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.32-1.60, p<0.001). Thirty days posttransplant represents a high-risk window for KT recipients and the readmissions during this window are strong predictors of adverse sequelae, particularly LHRs. Efforts should be made to implement and improve systems to reduce LHR and subsequent graft loss and mortality among recipients with EHR.

High dietary phosphorus intake is associated with all-cause mortality: results from NHANES III

BACKGROUND

Elevated serum phosphorus is associated with all-cause mortality, but little is known about risk associated with dietary phosphorus intake.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between phosphorus intake and mortality in a prospective cohort of healthy US adults (NHANES III; 1998-1994).

DESIGN

Study participants were 9686 nonpregnant adults aged 20-80 y without diabetes, cancer, or kidney or cardiovascular disease. Exposure to dietary phosphorus, which was assessed by using a 24-h dietary recall, was expressed as the absolute intake and phosphorus density (phosphorus intake divided by energy intake). All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was assessed through 31 December 2006.

RESULTS

Median phosphorus intake was 1166 mg/d (IQR: 823-1610 mg/d); median phosphorus density was 0.58 mg/kcal (0.48-0.70 mg/kcal). Individuals who consumed more phosphorus-dense diets were older, were less often African American, and led healthier lifestyles (smoking, physical activity, and Healthy Eating Index). In analyses adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, kidney function, and energy intake, higher phosphorus intake was associated with higher all-cause mortality in individuals who consumed >1400 mg/d [adjusted HR (95% CI): 2.23 (1.09, 4.5) per 1-unit increase in ln(phosphorus intake); P = 0.03]. At <1400 mg/d, there was no association. A similar association was seen between higher phosphorus density and all-cause mortality at a phosphorus density amount >0.35 mg/kcal [adjusted HR (95% CI): 2.27 (1.19, 4.33) per 0.1-mg/kcal increase in phosphorus density; P = 0.01]. At <0.35 mg/kcal (approximately the fifth percentile), lower phosphorus density was associated with increased mortality risk. Phosphorus density was associated with cardiovascular mortality [adjusted HR (95% CI): 3.39 (1.43, 8.02) per 0.1 mg/kcal at >0.35 mg/kcal; P = 0.01], whereas no association was shown in analyses with phosphorus intake. Results were similar by subgroups of diet quality and in analyses adjusted for sodium and saturated fat intakes.

CONCLUSIONS

High phosphorus intake is associated with increased mortality in a healthy US population. Because of current patterns in phosphorus consumption in US adults, these findings may have important public health implications.

Performance and limitations of administrative data in the identification of AKI

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Billing codes are frequently used to identify AKI events in epidemiologic research. The goals of this study were to validate billing code-identified AKI against the current AKI consensus definition and to ascertain whether sensitivity and specificity vary by patient characteristic or over time.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

The study population included 10,056 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants hospitalized between 1996 and 2008. Billing code-identified AKI was compared with the 2012 Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) creatinine-based criteria (AKIcr) and an approximation of the 2012 KDIGO creatinine- and urine output-based criteria (AKIcr_uop) in a subset with available outpatient data. Sensitivity and specificity of billing code-identified AKI were evaluated over time and according to patient age, race, sex, diabetes status, and CKD status in 546 charts selected for review, with estimates adjusted for sampling technique.

RESULTS

A total of 34,179 hospitalizations were identified; 1353 had a billing code for AKI. The sensitivity of billing code-identified AKI was 17.2% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 13.2% to 21.2%) compared with AKIcr (n=1970 hospitalizations) and 11.7% (95% CI, 8.8% to 14.5%) compared with AKIcr_uop (n=1839 hospitalizations). Specificity was >98% in both cases. Sensitivity was significantly higher in the more recent time period (2002-2008) and among participants aged 65 years and older. Billing code-identified AKI captured a more severe spectrum of disease than did AKIcr and AKIcr_uop, with a larger proportion of patients with stage 3 AKI (34.9%, 19.7%, and 11.5%, respectively) and higher in-hospital mortality (41.2%, 18.7%, and 12.8%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of billing codes to identify AKI has low sensitivity compared with the current KDIGO consensus definition, especially when the urine output criterion is included, and results in the identification of a more severe phenotype. Epidemiologic studies using billing codes may benefit from a high specificity, but the variation in sensitivity may result in bias, particularly when trends over time are the outcome of interest.

Cystatin C- and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate, vascular disease, and mortality in persons with diabetes in the U.S

OBJECTIVE Serum cystatin C is an alternative to serum creatinine for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR), since cystatin C is less influenced by age and muscle mass. Among persons with diabetes, we compared the performance of GFR estimated using cystatin C (eGFRcys) with that using creatinine (eGFRcr) for the identification of reduced kidney function and its association with diabetes complications. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We analyzed data from adult participants from the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with available cystatin C (N = 4,457). Kidney function was dichotomized as preserved (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) or reduced (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) using the 2012 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) cystatin C and the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equations. RESULTS Among 778 persons with diabetes, the prevalence of reduced kidney function was 16.5% using eGFRcr and 22.0% using eGFRcys. More persons with diabetes were reclassified from preserved kidney function by eGFRcr to reduced kidney function by eGFRcys than persons without diabetes (odds ratio 3.1 [95% CI 1.9-4.9], P < 0.001). The associations between lower eGFR and higher prevalence of albuminuria, retinopathy, peripheral arterial disease, and coronary artery disease were robust regardless of filtration marker. Similarly, the risk of all-cause mortality increased with lower eGFRcr and eGFRcys. Only lower eGFRcys was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS More persons with diabetes had reduced kidney function by eGFRcys than by eGFRcr, and lower eGFRcys was strongly associated with diabetes complications. Whether eGFRcys is superior to eGFRcr in approximating true kidney function in a diabetic population requires additional study.

Fibroblast growth factor-23 and the long-term risk of hospital-associated AKI among community-dwelling older individuals

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

AKI occurs frequently in older persons. Elevated circulating fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23), a known marker of impaired mineral metabolism, may also reflect tubular dysfunction and risk of AKI. This study evaluated FGF-23 as well as traditional markers of kidney disease, namely urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and creatinine-cystatin C estimated GFR (eGFRCrCyC), as risk factors for AKI in elderly individuals.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Plasma FGF-23, UACR, and eGFRCrCyC were measured in 3241 community-dwelling elderly individuals in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Hospitalization for AKI was defined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Associations of each biomarker with AKI were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and biomarkers of kidney function.

RESULTS

The mean participant age was 78 years; 60% of participants were women and 16% were African American. The median (interquartile range) values of biomarkers were as follows: FGF-23, 70 RU/ml (53, 99); UACR, 8.88 mg/g (4.71, 20.47); and eGFRCrCyC, 71 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (59, 83). Hospitalized AKI occurred in 119 participants over 10.0 years of median follow-up. In fully adjusted analyses, compared with the lowest quartiles, the highest quartiles of FGF-23 (≥100 RU/ml) and UACR (≥20.9 mg/g) were associated with AKI (FGF-23: hazard ratio [HR], 1.99; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 3.80; and UACR: HR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.83 to 6.13). Compared with the highest quartile, the lowest quartile of eGFRCrCyC (<57 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) was associated with AKI with an HR of 2.15 (95% CI, 1.21 to 3.82).

CONCLUSIONS

FGF-23 adjusted for albuminuria, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and baseline eGFR is independently associated with a higher risk of AKI hospitalizations in community-dwelling elderly individuals. Further studies to understand the nature of this association are warranted.

Lifetime incidence of CKD stages 3-5 in the United States

BACKGROUND

Lifetime risk estimates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) can motivate preventative behaviors at the individual level and forecast disease burden and health care use at the population level.

STUDY DESIGN

Markov Monte Carlo model simulation study.

SETTING & POPULATION

Current US black and white population.

MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMEFRAME

Markov models simulating kidney disease development, using an individual perspective and lifetime horizon.

OUTCOMES

Age-, sex-, and race-specific residual lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+ (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 mL/min/1.73 m²), 3b+ (eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m²), 4+ (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m²), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

MEASUREMENTS

State transition probabilities of developing CKD and of dying prior to its development were modeled using: (1) mortality rates from the National Vital Statistics Report, (2) mortality risk estimates from a 2-million person meta-analysis, and (3) CKD prevalence from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Incidence, prevalence, and mortality related to ESRD were supplied by the US Renal Data System.

RESULTS

At birth, the overall lifetime risks of CKD stages 3a+, 3b+, 4+, and ESRD were 59.1%, 33.6%, 11.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. Women experienced greater CKD risk yet lower ESRD risk than men; blacks of both sexes had markedly higher CKD stage 4+ and ESRD risks (lifetime risks for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively: CKD stage 3a+, 53.6%, 64.9%, 51.8%, and 63.6%; CKD stage 3b+, 29.0%, 36.7%, 33.7%, and 40.2%; CKD stage 4+, 9.3%, 11.4%, 15.8%, and 18.5%; and ESRD, 3.3%, 2.2%, 8.5%, and 7.8%). Risk of CKD increased with age, with approximately one-half the CKD stage 3a+ cases developing after 70 years of age.

LIMITATIONS

CKD incidence was modeled from prevalence estimates in the US population.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, the lifetime risk of developing CKD stage 3a+ is high, emphasizing the importance of primary prevention and effective therapy to reduce CKD-related morbidity and mortality.

Trends in the prevalence of reduced GFR in the United States: a comparison of creatinine- and cystatin C-based estimates

BACKGROUND

The US prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine level increased during the decade ending in 2002. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cystatin C measurements recently were calibrated to the international standard, allowing for an independent test of the trend in prevalence of reduced eGFR using cystatin C level.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional surveys performed during 2 periods.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative subsamples of adult participants from NHANES III (1988-1994) and the NHANES 1999-2002 surveys.

PREDICTOR

Survey period.

OUTCOMES

Prevalence of reduced GFR, defined as eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² based on levels of serum creatinine, cystatin C, or both (eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys), using estimating equations developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI).

MEASUREMENTS

Serum cystatin C level, measured from stored samples in 2006, calibrated to the international standard in 2012.

RESULTS

Between 1988-1994 and 1999-2002, the prevalence of reduced eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys increased from 4.7% (95% CI, 4.1%-5.3%) to 6.5% (95% CI, 5.9%-7.1%) (P < 0.001), from 5.5% (95% CI, 4.6%-6.5%) to 8.7% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.0%) (P < 0.001), and from 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7%-5.2%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 6.2%-8.0%) (P < 0.001), respectively. The higher prevalence of reduced GFR in the later period was observed in all subgroups of age, race, sex, and GFR categories. After adjusting for changes in the US population by age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, and body mass index, prevalence ratios of reduced GFR in the later versus earlier survey were 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09-1.45), 1.34 (95% CI, 1.15-1.67), and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.17-1.65) using eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Likely underascertainment of persons with GFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m²; GFR was estimated and not measured; comparability of laboratory assays based on a calibration subsample.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of reduced eGFRcys in the US civilian noninstitutionalized population increased between 1988-1994 and 1999-2002, confirming the increase observed in the prevalence of reduced eGFRcr.

Trends in the inactive kidney transplant waitlist and implications for candidate survival

In November 2003, OPTN policy was amended to allow kidney transplant candidates to accrue waiting time while registered as status 7, or inactive. We evaluated trends in inactive listings and the association of inactive status with transplantation and survival, studying 262,824 adult first-time KT candidates listed between 2000 and 2011. The proportion of waitlist candidates initially listed as inactive increased from 2.3% prepolicy change to 31.4% in 2011. Candidates initially listed as inactive were older, more often female, African American, and with higher body mass index. Postpolicy change, conversion from initially inactive to active status generally occurred early if at all: at 1 year after listing, 52.7% of initially inactive candidates had been activated; at 3 years, only 66.3% had been activated. Inactive status was associated with a substantially higher waitlist mortality (aHR 2.21, 95%CI:2.15-2.28, p<0.001) and lower rates of eventual transplantation (aRR 0.68, 95%CI:0.67-0.70, p<0.001). In summary, waitlist practice has changed significantly since November 2003, with a sharp increase in the number of inactive candidates. Using the full waitlist to estimate organ shortage or as a comparison group in transplant outcome studies is less appropriate in the current era.

Relation of serum phosphorus levels to the incidence of atrial fibrillation (from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities [ARIC] study)

High serum phosphorus levels have been linked with vascular calcification and greater cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We assessed whether serum phosphorus was associated with the atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence in a large community-based cohort in the United States. Our analysis included 14,675 participants (25% black, 45% men) free of AF at baseline (1987 to 1989) and with measurements of fasting serum phosphorus from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study. The incidence of AF was ascertained through the end of 2008 from study visit electrocardiograms, hospitalizations, and death certificates. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of AF by the serum phosphorus levels, adjusting for potential confounders. During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, we identified 1,656 incident AF cases. Greater serum phosphorus was associated with a greater AF risk: the hazard ratio of AF with a 1-mg/dl increase in serum phosphorus was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.26). No significant interaction was seen by race (p = 0.88) or gender (p = 0.51). The risk of AF was increased in association with greater serum phosphorus in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of ≥90 ml/min/1.72 m(2) but not among those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of <90 ml/min/1.72 m(2). The total corrected calcium levels were not related to AF risk; however, greater levels of the calcium-phosphorus product were associated with greater AF risk. In conclusion, in the present large population-based study, greater levels of serum phosphorus and the related calcium-phosphorus product were associated with a greater incidence of AF.

Preemptive deceased donor kidney transplantation: considerations of equity and utility

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There exists gross disparity in national deceased donor kidney transplant availability and practice: waiting times exceed 6 years in some regions, but some patients receive kidneys before they require dialysis. This study aimed to quantify and characterize preemptive deceased donor kidney transplant recipients and compare their outcomes with patients transplanted shortly after dialysis initiation.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database, first-time adult deceased donor kidney transplant recipients between 1995 and 2011 were classified as preemptive, early (on dialysis ≤1 year), or late recipients. Random effects logistic regression and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression were used to identify characteristics of preemptive deceased donor kidney transplant and evaluate survival in preemptive and early recipients, respectively.

RESULTS

Preemptive recipients were 9.0% of the total recipient population. Patients with private insurance (adjusted odds ratio=3.15, 95% confidence interval=3.01-3.29, P<0.001), previous (nonkidney) transplant (adjusted odds ratio=1.94, 95% confidence interval=1.67-2.26, P<0.001), and zero-antigen mismatch (adjusted odds ratio=1.45, 95% confidence interval=1.37-1.54, P<0.001; Caucasians only) were more likely to receive preemptive deceased donor kidney transplant, even after accounting for center-level clustering. African Americans were less likely to receive preemptive deceased donor kidney transplant (adjusted odds ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.41-0.47, P<0.001). Overall, patients transplanted preemptively had similar survival compared with patients transplanted within 1 year after initiating dialysis (adjusted hazard ratio=1.06, 95% confidence interval=0.99-1.12, P=0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Preemptive deceased donor kidney transplant occurs most often among Caucasians with private insurance, and survival is fairly similar to survival of recipients on dialysis for <1 year.

Early hospital readmission after kidney transplantation: patient and center-level associations

Early hospital readmission (EHR) is associated with increased morbidity, costs and transition-of-care errors. We sought to quantify rates of and risk factors for EHR after kidney transplantation (KT). We studied 32 961 Medicare primary KT recipients (2000-2005) linked to Medicare claims through the United States Renal Data System. EHR was defined as at least one hospitalization within 30 days of initial discharge after KT. The association between EHR and recipient and transplant factors was explored using Poisson regression; hierarchical modeling was used to account for study center-level differences. The overall EHR rate was 31%, and 19 independent patient-level factors associated with EHR were identified: recipient factors included older age, African American race and various comorbidities; transplant factors included ECD, length of stay and lack of induction therapy. The unadjusted rate of EHR by center ranged from 18% to 47%, but conventional center-level factors (percent African American, percent age > 60, percent deceased donor and percent expanded criteria donor) were not associated with EHR. However, intermediate total volume and average length of stay were associated with increased EHR risk. Better identification of patients at risk for early hospital readmission following KT may guide discharge planning and early posttransplant outpatient monitoring.

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression.

RESULTS

The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

Candidacy for kidney transplantation of older adults

OBJECTIVES

To develop a prediction model for kidney transplantation (KT) outcomes specific to older adults with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and to use this model to estimate the number of excellent older KT candidates who lack access to KT.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing and U.S. Renal Disease System.

SETTING

Retrospective analysis of national registry data.

PARTICIPANTS

Model development: Medicare-primary older recipients (aged ≥ 65) of a first KT between 1999 and 2006 (N = 6,988). Model application: incident Medicare-primary older adults with ESRD between 1999 and 2006 without an absolute or relative contraindication to transplantation (N = 128,850).

MEASUREMENTS

Comorbid conditions were extracted from U.S. Renal Disease System Form 2728 data and Medicare claims.

RESULTS

The prediction model used 19 variables to estimate post-KT outcome and showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .44) and better prediction than previous population-average models (P < .001). Application of the model to the population with incident ESRD identified 11,756 excellent older transplant candidates (defined as >87% predicted 3-year post-KT survival, corresponding to the top 20% of transplanted older adults used in model development), of whom 76.3% (n = 8,966) lacked access. It was estimated that 11% of these candidates would have identified a suitable live donor had they been referred for KT.

CONCLUSION

A risk-prediction model specific to older adults can identify excellent KT candidates. Appropriate referral could result in significantly greater rates of KT in older adults.

Disparities in provision of transplant information affect access to kidney transplantation

Recently Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) began asking providers on Form-2728 whether they informed patients about transplantation, and if not, to select a reason. The goals of this study were to describe national transplant education practices and analyze associations between practices and access to transplantation (ATT), based on United States Renal Data System (USRDS) data from 2005 to 2007. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with not being informed about transplantation, and modified Poisson regression to examine associations between not being informed and ATT (all models adjusted for demographics/comorbidities). Of 236,079 incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, 30.1% were not informed at time of 2728 filing, for reasons reported by providers as follows: 42.1% unassessed, 30.4% medically unfit, 16.9% unsuitable due to age, 3.1% psychologically unfit and 1.5% declined counsel. Older, obese, uninsured, Medicaid-insured and patients at for-profit centers were more likely to be unassessed. Women were more likely to be reported as unsuitable due to age, medically unfit and declined, and African Americans as psychologically unfit. Uninformed patients had a 53% lower rate of ATT, a disparity persisting in the subgroup of uninformed patients who were unassessed. Disparities in ATT may be partially explained by disparities in provision of transplant information; dialysis centers should ensure this critical intervention is offered equitably.

Trends in the timing of pre-emptive kidney transplantation

Pre-emptive kidney transplantation is considered the best available renal replacement therapy, but no guidelines exist to direct its timing during CKD progression. We used a national cohort of 19,471 first-time pre-emptive kidney transplant recipients between 1995-2009 to evaluate patterns and implications of transplant timing. Mean estimated GFR (eGFR) at the time of pre-emptive transplant increased significantly over time, from 9.2 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in 1995 to 13.8 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in 2009 (P<0.001). Patients with eGFR ≥ 15 ml/min/1.73 m(2) represented an increasing proportion of pre-emptive transplant recipients, from 9% in 1995 to 35% in 2009; the trend for patients with eGFR ≥ 10 was similar (30% to 72%). We did not detect statistically significant differences in patient survival or death-censored graft survival between strata of eGFR at the time of transplant, either in the full cohort or in subgroup analyses of patients who might theoretically benefit from earlier pre-emptive transplantation. In summary, pre-emptive kidney transplantation is occurring at increasing levels of native kidney function. Earlier transplantation does not appear to associate with patient or graft survival, suggesting that earlier pre-emptive transplantation may subject donors and recipients to premature operative risk and waste the native kidney function of recipients.

Association of race and age with survival among patients undergoing dialysis

CONTEXT

Many studies have reported that black individuals undergoing dialysis survive longer than those who are white. This observation is paradoxical given racial disparities in access to and quality of care, and is inconsistent with observed lower survival among black patients with chronic kidney disease. We hypothesized that age and the competing risk of transplantation modify survival differences by race.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate death among dialysis patients by race, accounting for age as an effect modifier and kidney transplantation as a competing risk.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An observational cohort study of 1,330,007 incident end-stage renal disease patients as captured in the United States Renal Data System between January 1, 1995, and September 28, 2009 (median potential follow-up time, 6.7 years; range, 1 day-14.8 years). Multivariate age-stratified Cox proportional hazards and competing risk models were constructed to examine death in patients who receive dialysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Death in black vs white patients who receive dialysis.

RESULTS

Similar to previous studies, black patients undergoing dialysis had a lower death rate compared with white patients (232,361 deaths [57.1% mortality] vs 585,792 deaths [63.5% mortality], respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-0.84; P <.001). However, when stratifying by age and treating kidney transplantation as a competing risk, black patients had significantly higher mortality than their white counterparts at ages 18 to 30 years (27.6% mortality vs 14.2%; aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.84-2.03), 31 to 40 years (37.4% mortality vs 26.8%; aHR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.41-1.50), and 41 to 50 years (44.8% mortality vs 38.0%; aHR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.10-1.14; P <.001 for interaction terms between race and each aforementioned age category), as opposed to patients aged 51 to 60 years (51.5% vs 50.9%; aHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.92-0.94), 61 to 70 years (64.9% vs 67.2%; aHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88), 71 to 80 years (76.1% vs 79.7%; aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84-0.86), and older than 80 years (82.4% vs 83.6%; aHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, among dialysis patients in the United States, there was a lower risk of death for black patients compared with their white counterparts. However, the commonly cited survival advantage for black dialysis patients applies only to older adults, and those younger than 50 years have a higher risk of death.

Fluid balance, diuretic use, and mortality in acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Management of volume status in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) is complex, and the role of diuretics is controversial. The primary objective was to elucidate the association between fluid balance, diuretic use, and short-term mortality after AKI in critically ill patients.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Using data from the Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), a multicenter, randomized controlled trial evaluating a conservative versus liberal fluid-management strategy in 1000 patients with acute lung injury (ALI), we evaluated the association of post-renal injury fluid balance and diuretic use with 60-day mortality in patients who developed AKI, as defined by the AKI Network criteria.

RESULTS

306 patients developed AKI in the first 2 study days and were included in our analysis. There were 137 in the fluid-liberal arm and 169 in the fluid-conservative arm (P=0.04). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Post-AKI fluid balance was significantly associated with mortality in both crude and adjusted analysis. Higher post-AKI furosemide doses had a protective effect on mortality but no significant effect after adjustment for post-AKI fluid balance. There was no threshold dose of furosemide above which mortality increased.

CONCLUSIONS

A positive fluid balance after AKI was strongly associated with mortality. Post-AKI diuretic therapy was associated with 60-day patient survival in FACTT patients with ALI; this effect may be mediated by fluid balance.