Distribution of Capsular Types of Campylobacter jejuni Isolates from Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Children in Peru

Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhea worldwide. A capsular polysaccharide (CPS) conjugate vaccine is under development and requires determination of the valency. However, distribution of CPS types circulating globally is presently poorly described. We aimed to determine whether CPS type distribution in Peru differs from that in other endemic regions. We used a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the detection of CPS encoding genes capable of distinguishing all 35 CPS types on Campylobacter isolates in two prospective communities based studies conducted in cohorts of children less than 59 months of age in Peru. Results showed that CPS type HS4 complex was the most prevalent, followed by HS3 complex and HS15. Differences in CPS type for symptomatology were not statistically significant. Most subjects demonstrated repeated infections over time with different CPS types, suggesting that CPS types may confer of a level of homologous protective immunity. In this dataset, some differences in CPS type distribution were observed in comparison to other low-middle income countries. Further studies need to be conducted in endemic areas to increase our knowledge of CPS type distribution and guide vaccine development.

Effects of Child and Maternal Histo-Blood Group Antigen Status on Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Enteric Infections in Early Childhood

Background

Histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) such as fucosyltransferase (FUT)2 and 3 may act as innate host factors that differentially influence susceptibility of individuals and their offspring to pediatric enteric infections.

Methods

In 3 community-based birth cohorts, FUT2 and FUT3 statuses were ascertained for mother-child dyads. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction panels tested 3663 diarrheal and 18 148 asymptomatic stool samples for 29 enteropathogens. Cumulative diarrhea and infection incidence were compared by child (n = 520) and mothers’ (n = 519) HBGA status and hazard ratios (HRs) derived for all-cause diarrhea and specific enteropathogens.

Results

Children of secretor (FUT2 positive) mothers had a 38% increased adjusted risk of all-cause diarrhea (HR = 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15–1.66) and significantly reduced time to first diarrheal episode. Child FUT2 and FUT3 positivity reduced the risk for all-cause diarrhea by 29% (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.71–0.93) and 27% (HR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74–0.92), respectively. Strong associations between HBGAs and pathogen-specific infection and diarrhea were observed, particularly for noroviruses, rotaviruses, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, and Campylobacter jejuni/coli.

Conclusions

Histo-blood group antigens affect incidence of all-cause diarrhea and enteric infections at magnitudes comparable to many common disease control interventions. Studies measuring impacts of interventions on childhood enteric disease should account for both child and mothers’ HBGA status.

Minimally Invasive Saliva Testing to Monitor Norovirus Infection in Community Settings

Background

Norovirus is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Routine norovirus diagnosis requires stool collection. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a noninvasive method to diagnose norovirus to complement stool diagnostics and to facilitate studies on transmission.

Methods

A multiplex immunoassay to measure salivary immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to 5 common norovirus genotypes (GI.1, GII.2, GII.4, GII.6, and GII.17) was developed. The assay was validated using acute and convalescent saliva samples collected from Peruvian children <5 years of age with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)–diagnosed norovirus infections (n = 175) and controls (n = 32). The assay sensitivity and specificity were calculated to determine infection status based on fold rise of salivary norovirus genotype-specific IgG using norovirus genotype from stool as reference.

Results

The salivary assay detected recent norovirus infections and correctly assigned the infecting genotype. Sensitivity was 71% and specificity was 96% across the evaluated genotypes compared to PCR-diagnosed norovirus infection.

Conclusions

This saliva-based assay will be a useful tool to monitor norovirus transmission in high-risk settings such as daycare centers or hospitals. Cross-reactivity is limited between the tested genotypes, which represent the most commonly circulating genotypes.

Determinants of Campylobacter infection and association with growth and enteric inflammation in children under 2 years of age in low-resource settings

Campylobacter species infections have been associated with malnutrition and intestinal inflammation among children in low-resource settings. However, it remains unclear whether that association is specific to Campylobacter jejuni/coli. The aim of this study was to assess the association between both all Campylobacter species infections and Campylobacter jejuni/coli infections on growth and enteric inflammation in children aged 1-24 months. We analyzed data from 1715 children followed from birth until 24 months of age in the MAL-ED birth cohort study, including detection of Campylobacter species by enzyme immunoassay and Campylobacter jejuni/coli by quantitative PCR in stool samples. Myeloperoxidase (MPO) concentration in stool, used as a quantitative index of enteric inflammation, was measured. The incidence rate per 100 child-months of infections with Campylobacter jejuni/coli and Campylobacter species during 1-24 month follow up were 17.7 and 29.6 respectively. Female sex of child, shorter duration of exclusive breastfeeding, lower maternal age, mother having less than 3 living children, maternal educational level of <6 years, lack of routine treatment of drinking water, and unimproved sanitation were associated with Campylobacter jejuni/coli infection. The cumulative burden of both Campylobacter jejuni/coli infections and Campylobacter species were associated with poor growth and increased intestinal inflammation.

Penalized regression models to select biomarkers of environmental enteric dysfunction associated with linear growth acquisition in a Peruvian birth cohort

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is associated with chronic undernutrition. Efforts to identify minimally invasive biomarkers of EED reveal an expanding number of candidate analytes. An analytic strategy is reported to select among candidate biomarkers and systematically express the strength of each marker’s association with linear growth in infancy and early childhood. 180 analytes were quantified in fecal, urine and plasma samples taken at 7, 15 and 24 months of age from 258 subjects in a birth cohort in Peru. Treating the subjects’ length-for-age Z-score (LAZ-score) over a 2-month lag as the outcome, penalized linear regression models with different shrinkage methods were fitted to determine the best-fitting subset. These were then included with covariates in linear regression models to obtain estimates of each biomarker’s adjusted effect on growth. Transferrin had the largest and most statistically significant adjusted effect on short-term linear growth as measured by LAZ-score–a coefficient value of 0.50 (0.24, 0.75) for each log₂ increase in plasma transferrin concentration. Other biomarkers with large effect size estimates included adiponectin, arginine, growth hormone, proline and serum amyloid P-component. The selected subset explained up to 23.0% of the variability in LAZ-score. Penalized regression modeling approaches can be used to select subsets from large panels of candidate biomarkers of EED. There is a need to systematically express the strength of association of biomarkers with linear growth or other outcomes to compare results across studies.

Childhood undernutrition is widespread throughout the world and has severe, long-lasting health impacts. Substances measured in blood, urine and stool could be used as biomarkers to identify children undergoing growth failure before these impacts occur. However, it is not yet known which of the many markers that can be identified are accurate and clinically useful predictors of poor growth in infants and children. This study used a large number of candidate biomarkers of immune activation, metabolism and hormones and applied statistical methods to narrow them down from 110 different substances, to the 36 best predictors of growth in 258 Peruvian infants. It also estimated how large the effect of each of these markers was on height two months later. The biomarker with the largest effect was transferrin, a glycoprotein that can be measured in blood samples. 15-month old children with elevated transferrin were around two thirds of a centimeter taller on average at 17 months than those with low levels. Transferrin and other proteins, glycoproteins, hormones and antibodies that this study identified, can be measured easily and affordably in standard laboratories making them feasible to be used broadly as prognostic markers as part of child health and nutrition programs in under-resourced settings.

Evolution of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin Scar and Its Association with Birth and Pregnancy Characteristics in a Prospective Cohort of Infants in Iquitos, Peru

BACKGROUND

Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) scar formation is considered a visual marker of vaccination and cell-mediated immune response. This study characterized the association between pregnancy and birth characteristics with BCG scar formation.

STUDY DESIGN

Pregnant women were enrolled prospectively. Infants were followed up for the first 6 months of life, and the diameter of the BCG scar was recorded. Marginal models were fitted to assess the association of BCG scar diameter with pregnancy and birth characteristics using linear regressions with generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

A total of 307 infants were enrolled, of whom 19.2% (59/307) were of low birth weight. Among those with known gestational age, 7.1% were preterm births (21/295). Overall, 98.7% (303/307) of infants developed a BCG scar. BCG scar trends in a tropical environment, such as the Amazon, differ from the trends evidenced in the capital of Peru. For every additional week of gestational age, the mean scar diameter increased by 0.1 mm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.24; p = 0.017). Maternal illness during pregnancy impacted BCG scar size, as the infants of mothers who self-report fever had a smaller scar diameter (1 mm, 95% CI: 0.5, 1.8 mm; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The immune reaction to the BCG vaccination is affected by gestational age at birth and systemic inflammatory episodes during pregnancy.

Intestinal permeability and inflammation mediate the association between nutrient density of complementary foods and biochemical measures of micronutrient status in young children: results from the MAL-ED study

BACKGROUND

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is thought to increase the risk of micronutrient deficiencies, but few studies adjust for dietary intakes and systemic inflammation.

OBJECTIVE

We tested whether EED is associated with micronutrient deficiency risk independent of diet and systemic inflammation, and whether it mediates the relation between intake and micronutrient status.

METHODS

Using data from 1283 children in the MAL-ED (Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health) birth cohort we evaluated the risk of anemia, low retinol, zinc, and ferritin, and high transferrin receptor (TfR) at 15 mo. We characterized gut inflammation and permeability by myeloperoxidase (MPO), neopterin (NEO), and α-1-antitrypsin (AAT) concentrations from asymptomatic fecal samples averaged from 9 to 15 mo, and averaged the lactulose:mannitol ratio z-score (LMZ) at 9 and 15 mo. Nutrient intakes from complementary foods were quantified monthly from 9 to 15 mo and densities were averaged for analyses. α-1-Acid glycoprotein at 15 mo characterized systemic inflammation. Relations between variables were modeled using a Bayesian network.

RESULTS

A greater risk of anemia was associated with LMZ [1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.31)] and MPO [1.16 (1.01, 1.34)]. A greater risk of low ferritin was associated with AAT [1.19 (1.03, 1.37)] and NEO [1.22 (1.04, 1.44)]. A greater risk of low retinol was associated with LMZ [1.24 (1.08, 1.45)]. However, MPO was associated with a lower risk of high transferrin receptor [0.86 (0.74, 0.98)], NEO with a lower risk of low retinol [0.75 (0.62, 0.89)], and AAT with a lower risk of low plasma zinc [0.83 (0.70, 0.99)]. Greater nutrient intake densities (vitamins A and B6, calcium, protein, and zinc) were negatively associated with EED. Inverse associations between nutrient densities and micronutrient deficiency largely disappeared after adjustment for EED, suggesting that EED mediates these associations.

CONCLUSIONS

EED is independently associated with an increased risk of low ferritin, low retinol, and anemia. Greater nutrient density from complementary foods may reduce EED, and the control of micronutrient deficiencies may require control of EED.

Enteric dysfunction and other factors associated with attained size at 5 years: MAL-ED birth cohort study findings

BACKGROUND

Poor growth in early childhood has been associated with increased risk of mortality and morbidity, as well as long-term deficits in cognitive development and economic productivity.

OBJECTIVES

Data from the MAL-ED cohort study were used to identify factors in the first 2 y of life that are associated with height-for-age, weight-for-age, and body mass index z-scores (HAZ, WAZ, BMIZ) at 5 y of age.

METHODS

A total of 1017 children were followed from near birth until 5 y of age at sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Peru, South Africa, and Tanzania. Data were collected on their growth, environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), micronutrient status, enteric pathogen burden, illness prevalence, dietary intake, and various other socio-economic and environmental factors.

RESULTS

EED biomarkers were related to size at 5 y. Mean lactulose:mannitol z-scores during the first 2 y of life were negatively associated with all of the growth measures (HAZ: -0.11 [95% CI: -0.19, -0.03]; WAZ: -0.16 [95% CI: -0.26, -0.06]; BMIZ: -0.11 [95% CI: -0.23, 0.0]). Myeloperoxidase was negatively associated with weight (WAZ: -0.52 [95% CI: -0.78, -0.26] and BMIZ: -0.56 [95% CI: -0.86, -0.26]); whereas α-1-antitrypsin had a negative association with HAZ (-0.28 [95% CI: -0.52, -0.04]). Transferrin receptor was positively related to HAZ (0.18 [95% CI: 0.06, 0.30]) and WAZ (0.21 [95% CI: 0.07, 0.35]). Hemoglobin was positively related to HAZ (0.06 [95% CI: 0.00, 0.12]), and ferritin was negatively related to HAZ (-0.08 [95% CI: -0.12, -0.04]). Bacterial density in stool was negatively associated with HAZ (-0.04 [95% CI: -0.08, 0.00]), but illness symptoms did not have any effect on size at 5 y.

CONCLUSIONS

EED markers, bacterial density, and iron markers are associated with growth at 5 y of age. Interventions to reduce bacterial burden and EED may improve long-term growth in low-income settings.

Use of earth observation-derived hydrometeorological variables to model and predict rotavirus infection (MAL-ED): a multisite cohort study

BACKGROUND

Climate change threatens to undermine recent progress in reducing global deaths from diarrhoeal disease in children. However, the scarcity of evidence about how individual environmental factors affect transmission of specific pathogens makes prediction of trends under different climate scenarios challenging. We aimed to model associations between daily estimates of a suite of hydrometeorological variables and rotavirus infection status ascertained through community-based surveillance.

METHODS

For this analysis of multisite cohort data, rotavirus infection status was ascertained through community-based surveillance of infants in the eight-site MAL-ED cohort study, and matched by date with earth observation estimates of nine hydrometeorological variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System: daily total precipitation volume (mm), daily total surface runoff (mm), surface pressure (mbar), wind speed (m/s), relative humidity (%), soil moisture (%), solar radiation (W/m2), specific humidity (kg/kg), and average daily temperatures (°C). Lag relationships, independent effects, and interactions were characterised by use of modified Poisson models and compared with and without adjustment for seasonality and between-site variation. Final models were created with stepwise selection of main effects and interactions and their validity assessed by excluding each site in turn and calculating Tjur's Coefficients of Determination.

FINDINGS

All nine hydrometeorological variables were significantly associated with rotavirus infection after adjusting for seasonality and between-site variation over multiple consecutive or non-consecutive lags, showing complex, often non-linear associations that differed by symptom status and showed considerable mutual interaction. The final models explained 5·9% to 6·2% of the variability in rotavirus infection in the pooled data and their predictions explained between 0·0% and 14·1% of the variability at individual study sites.

INTERPRETATION

These results suggest that the effect of climate on rotavirus transmission was mediated by four independent mechanisms: waterborne dispersal, airborne dispersal, virus survival on soil and surfaces, and host factors. Earth observation data products available at a global scale and at subdaily resolution can be combined with longitudinal surveillance data to test hypotheses about routes and drivers of transmission but showed little potential for making predictions in this setting.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center; Sherrilyn and Ken Fisher Center for Environmental Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine; and NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme.

Antibiotic Resistance of Campylobacter Species in a Pediatric Cohort Study

The objective of this study was to determine the phenotypic patterns of antibiotic resistance and the epidemiology of drug-resistant Campylobacter spp. from a low-resource setting. A birth cohort of 303 patients was followed until 5 years of age. Stool samples from asymptomatic children (n = 10,008) and those with diarrhea (n = 3,175) were cultured for Campylobacter Disk diffusion for ciprofloxacin (CIP), nalidixic acid (NAL), erythromycin (ERY), azithromycin (AZM), tetracycline (TE), gentamicin (GM), ampicillin (AMP), amoxicillin and clavulanic acid (AMC), ceftriaxone (CRO), chloramphenicol (C), and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMS) was determined. Antibiotic resistances in Campylobacter jejuni and non-C. jejuni isolates from surveillance and diarrhea samples were compared, and the association between personal macrolide exposure and subsequent occurrence of a macrolide-resistant Campylobacter spp. was assessed. Of 917 Campylobacter isolates, 77.4% of C. jejuni isolates and 79.8% of non-C. jejuni isolates were resistant to ciprofloxacin, while 4.9% of C. jejuni isolates and 24.8% of non-C. jejuni isolates were not susceptible to azithromycin. Of the 303 children, 33.1% had been diagnosed with a Campylobacter strain nonsusceptible to both azithromycin and ciprofloxacin. Personal macrolide exposure did not affect the risk of macrolide-resistant Campylobacter Amoxicillin and clavulanic acid (94.0%) was one of the antibiotics with the highest rates of susceptibility. There is a high incidence of quinolone- and macrolide-resistant Campylobacter infections in infants under 24 months of age. Given the lack of association between personal exposure to macrolides and a subsequent Campylobacter infection resistant to macrolides, there is a need to evaluate the source of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Campylobacter This study provides compelling evidence to propose amoxicillin/clavulanic acid as a treatment for campylobacteriosis.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to assess the aetiology, burden, and clinical characteristics of diarrhoea in children in low-resource settings: a reanalysis of the MAL-ED cohort study

Background

Optimum management of childhood diarrhoea in low-resource settings has been hampered by insufficient data on aetiology, burden, and associated clinical characteristics. We used quantitative diagnostic methods to reassess and refine estimates of diarrhoea aetiology from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study.

Methods

We re-analysed stool specimens from the multisite MAL-ED cohort study of children aged 0–2 years done at eight locations (Dhaka, Bangladesh; Vellore, India; Bhaktapur, Nepal; Naushero Feroze, Pakistan; Venda, South Africa; Haydom, Tanzania; Fortaleza, Brazil; and Loreto, Peru), which included active surveillance for diarrhoea and routine non-diarrhoeal stool collection. We used quantitative PCR to test for 29 enteropathogens, calculated population-level pathogen-specific attributable burdens, derived stringent quantitative cutoffs to identify aetiology for individual episodes, and created aetiology prediction scores using clinical characteristics.

Findings

We analysed 6625 diarrhoeal and 30 968 non-diarrhoeal surveillance stools from 1715 children. Overall, 64·9% of diarrhoea episodes (95% CI 62·6–71·2) could be attributed to an aetiology by quantitative PCR compared with 32·8% (30·8–38·7) using the original study microbiology. Viral diarrhoea (36·4% of overall incidence, 95% CI 33·6–39·5) was more common than bacterial (25·0%, 23·4–28·4) and parasitic diarrhoea (3·5%, 3·0–5·2). Ten pathogens accounted for 95·7% of attributable diarrhoea: Shigella (26·1 attributable episodes per 100 child-years, 95% CI 23·8–29·9), sapovirus (22·8, 18·9–27·5), rotavirus (20·7, 18·8–23·0), adenovirus 40/41 (19·0, 16·8–23·0), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (18·8, 16·5–23·8), norovirus (15·4, 13·5–20·1), astrovirus (15·0, 12·0–19·5), Campylobacter jejuni or C coli (12·1, 8·5–17·2), Cryptosporidium (5·8, 4·3–8·3), and typical enteropathogenic E coli (5·4, 2·8–9·3). 86·2% of the attributable incidence for Shigella was non-dysenteric. A prediction score for shigellosis was more accurate (sensitivity 50·4% [95% CI 46·7–54·1], specificity 84·0% [83·0–84·9]) than current guidelines, which recommend treatment only of bloody diarrhoea to cover Shigella (sensitivity 14·5% [95% CI 12·1–17·3], specificity 96·5% [96·0–97·0]).

Interpretation

Quantitative molecular diagnostics improved estimates of pathogen-specific burdens of childhood diarrhoea in the community setting. Viral causes predominated, including a substantial burden of sapovirus; however, Shigella had the highest overall burden with a high incidence in the second year of life. These data could improve the management of diarrhoea in these low-resource settings.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to investigate the effect of enteropathogen infections on linear growth in children in low-resource settings: longitudinal analysis of results from the MAL-ED cohort study

BACKGROUND

Enteropathogen infections in early childhood not only cause diarrhoea but contribute to poor growth. We used molecular diagnostics to assess whether particular enteropathogens were associated with linear growth across seven low-resource settings.

METHODS

We used quantitative PCR to detect 29 enteropathogens in diarrhoeal and non-diarrhoeal stools collected from children in the first 2 years of life obtained during the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) multisite cohort study. Length was measured monthly. We estimated associations between aetiology-specific diarrhoea and subclinical enteropathogen infection and quantity and attained length in 3 month intervals, at age 2 and 5 years, and used a longitudinal model to account for temporality and time-dependent confounding.

FINDINGS

Among 1469 children who completed 2 year follow-up, 35 622 stool samples were tested and yielded valid results. Diarrhoeal episodes attributed to bacteria and parasites, but not viruses, were associated with small decreases in length after 3 months and at age 2 years. Substantial decrements in length at 2 years were associated with subclinical, non-diarrhoeal, infection with Shigella (length-for-age Z score [LAZ] reduction -0·14, 95% CI -0·27 to -0·01), enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (-0·21, -0·37 to -0·05), Campylobacter (-0·17, -0·32 to -0·01), and Giardia (-0·17, -0·30 to -0·05). Norovirus, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli, and Enterocytozoon bieneusi were also associated with small decrements in LAZ. Shigella and E bieneusi were associated with the largest decreases in LAZ per log increase in quantity per g of stool (-0·13 LAZ, 95% CI -0·22 to -0·03 for Shigella; -0·14, -0·26 to -0·02 for E bieneusi). Based on these models, interventions that successfully decrease exposure to Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia could increase mean length of children by 0·12-0·37 LAZ (0·4-1·2 cm) at the MAL-ED sites.

INTERPRETATION

Subclinical infection and quantity of pathogens, particularly Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia, had a substantial negative association with linear growth, which was sustained during the first 2 years of life, and in some cases, to 5 years. Successfully reducing exposure to certain pathogens might reduce global stunting.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exploring the relationship between environmental enteric dysfunction and oral vaccine responses

Oral vaccines significantly underperform in low-income countries. One possible contributory factor is environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), a subclinical disorder of small intestinal structure and function among children living in poverty. Here, we review studies describing oral vaccine responses and EED. We identified eight studies evaluating EED and oral vaccine responses. There was substantial heterogeneity in study design and few consistent trends emerged. Four studies reported a negative association between EED and oral vaccine responses; two showed no significant association; and two described a positive correlation. Current evidence is therefore insufficient to determine whether EED contributes to oral vaccine underperformance. We identify roadblocks in the field and future research needs, including carefully designed studies those can investigate this hypothesis further.

Social connectedness is associated with food security among peri-urban Peruvian Amazonian communities

BACKGROUND

Food insecurity is a major global public health issue. Social capital has been identified as central to maintaining food security across a wide range of low- and middle-income country contexts, but few studies have examined this relationship through sociocentric network analysis.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated relationships between household- and community-level social connectedness, household food security, and household income; and tested the hypothesis that social connectedness modified the relationship between income and food security.

METHODS

A cross-sectional census with an embedded questionnaire to capture social relationships was conducted among eleven peri-urban communities. Community connectedness was related to study outcomes of food security and per-capita income through regression models.

RESULTS

Of 1520 households identified, 1383 were interviewed (91.0%) and 1272 (83.9%) provided complete data. Households in the youngest communities had the most total contacts, and the highest proportion of contacts outside of the community. Household income was also associated with more outside-community contacts (0.05 more contacts per standard deviation increase in income, p<0.001).Less food secure households reported more contacts nearby (0.24 increase in household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS) for each additional contact, p<0.001). After adjusting for household-level socioeconomic status, membership in an older, larger, and better-connected community, with a greater proportion of residents engaged in rural livelihood strategies, was associated with greater food security (-0.92 decrease in HFIAS for each one-unit increase in community mean degree, p=0.008). There was no evidence that social connectedness modified the relationship between income and food security such that lower-income households benefited more from community membership than higher-income households.

CONCLUSIONS

Although households reported networks that spanned rural villages and urban centers, contacts within the community, with whom food was regularly shared, were most important to maintaining food security. Interventions that build within-community connectedness in peri-urban settings may increase food security.

A Longitudinal Study of Household Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Characteristics and Environmental Enteropathy Markers in Children Less than 24 Months in Iquitos, Peru

Poor child gut health, resulting from a lack of access to an improved toilet or clean water, has been proposed as a biological mechanism underlying child stunting and oral vaccine failure. Characteristics related to household sanitation, water use, and hygiene were measured among a birth cohort of 270 children from peri-urban Iquitos Peru. These children had monthly stool samples and urine samples at four time points and serum samples at (2–4) time points analyzed for biomarkers related to intestinal inflammation and permeability. We found that less storage of fecal matter near the household along with a reliable water connection were associated with reduced inflammation, most prominently the fecal biomarker myeloperoxidase (MPO) (no sanitation facility compared with those with an onsite toilet had −0.43 log MPO, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.74, −0.13; and households with an intermittent connection versus those with a continuous supply had +0.36 log MPO, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.63). These results provide preliminary evidence for the hypothesis that children less than 24 months of age living in unsanitary conditions will have elevated gut inflammation.

The other Campylobacters: Not innocent bystanders in endemic diarrhea and dysentery in children in low-income settings

Background

Campylobacter is one of the main causes of gastroenteritis worldwide. Most of the current knowledge about the epidemiology of this food-borne infection concerns two species, C. coli and C. jejuni. Recent studies conducted in developing countries and using novel diagnostic techniques have generated evidence of the increasing burden and importance of other Campylobacter species, i.e. non-C. coli/jejuni. We performed a nested case-control study to compare the prevalence of C. coli/jejuni and other Campylobacter in children with clinical dysentery and severe diarrhea as well as without diarrhea to better understand the clinical importance of infections with Campylobacter species other than C. coli/jejuni.

Methodology/Principal findings

Our nested case-control study of 439 stool samples included dysenteric stools, stools collected during severe diarrhea episodes, and asymptomatic stools which were systematically selected to be representative of clinical phenotypes from 9,160 stools collected during a birth cohort study of 201 children followed until two years of age. Other Campylobacter accounted for 76.4% of the 216 Campylobacter detections by qPCR and were more prevalent than C. coli/jejuni across all clinical groups. Other Campylobacter were also more prevalent than C. coli/jejuni across all age groups, with older children bearing a higher burden of other Campylobacter. Biomarkers of intestinal inflammation and injury (methylene blue, fecal occult test, myeloperoxidase or MPO) showed a strong association with dysentery, but mixed results with infection. MPO levels were generally higher among children infected with C. coli/jejuni, but Shigella-infected children suffering from dysentery recorded the highest levels (26,224 ng/mL); the lowest levels (10,625 ng/mL) were among asymptomatic children infected with other Campylobacter. Adjusting for age, sex, and Shigella infection, dysentery was significantly associated with C. coli/jejuni but not with other Campylobacter, whereas severe diarrhea was significantly associated with both C. coli/jejuni and other Campylobacter. Compared to asymptomatic children, children suffering from dysentery had a 14.6 odds of C. coli/jejuni infection (p-value < 0.001, 95% CI 5.5–38.7) but were equally likely to have other Campylobacter infections–odds ratio of 1.3 (0.434, 0.7–2.4). Children suffering from severe diarrhea were more likely than asymptomatic children to test positive for both C. coli/jejuni and other Campylobacter–OR of 2.8 (0.034, 1.1–7.1) and 1.9 (0.018, 1.1–3.1), respectively. Compared to the Campylobacter-free group, the odds of all diarrhea given C. coli/jejuni infection and other Campylobacter infection were 8.8 (<0.001, 3.0–25.7) and 2.4 (0.002, 1.4–4.2), respectively. Eliminating other Campylobacter in this population would eliminate 24.9% of the diarrhea cases, which is almost twice the population attributable fraction of 15.1% due to C. coli/jejuni.

Conclusions/Significance

Eighty-seven percent of the dysentery and 59.5% of the severe diarrhea samples were positive for Campylobacter, Shigella, or both, emphasizing the importance of targeting these pathogens to limit the impact of dysentery and severe diarrhea in children. Notably, the higher prevalence of other Campylobacter compared to C. coli/jejuni, their increasing burden during early childhood, and their association with severe diarrhea highlight the importance of these non-C. coli/jejuni Campylobacter species and suggest a need to clarify their importance in the etiology of clinical disease across different epidemiological contexts.

Campylobacter is a major public health concern in developed and developing countries. C. coli and C. jejuni have long been considered to be the major disease-causing species, and clinical microbiologic approaches target these two species. However, less selective diagnostic approaches have shown the increasing importance of other Campylobacter species (i.e. non-C. coli/jejuni). Our case-control study investigated the association between diarrhea, C. coli/jejuni, and other Campylobacter among 439 stool samples from 201 children in peri-urban communities in Loreto, Peru. Three quarters of the 216 Campylobacter detections were associated with other Campylobacter, whose prevalence increased with age and was greater than that of C. coli/jejuni in all age and clinical groups (dysentery, severe diarrhea, and asymptomatic). Despite their lower prevalence, C. coli/jejuni were more strongly associated with higher levels of myeloperoxidase, clinical dysentery, and the presence of leukocytes and blood in the stool compared to other Campylobacter. Other Campylobacter were equally likely as C. coli/jejuni to be detected in severe diarrhea cases–odds ratio of 1.9 (p-value = 0.018, 95% CI 1.1–3.1) and 2.8 (0.034, 1.1–7.1), respectively. Removing C. coli/jejuni in this population would eliminate 15.1% of diarrhea compared to 24.9% if other Campylobacter were eliminated.

Relationships among Common Illness Symptoms and the Protective Effect of Breastfeeding in Early Childhood in MAL-ED: An Eight-Country Cohort Study

Children in low-income countries experience multiple illness symptoms in early childhood. Breastfeeding is protective against diarrhea and respiratory infections, and these illnesses are thought to be risk factors of one another, but these relationships have not been explored simultaneously. In the eight-site MAL-ED study, 1,731 infants were enrolled near birth and followed for 2 years. We collected symptoms and diet information through twice-weekly household visits. Poisson regression was used to determine if recent illness history was associated with incidence of diarrhea or acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), accounting for exclusive breastfeeding. Recent diarrhea was associated with higher risk of incident diarrhea after the first 6 months of life (relative risk [RR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04, 1.16) and with higher risk of incident ALRI in the 3- to 5-month period (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03, 1.47). Fever was a consistent risk factor for both diarrhea and ALRI. Exclusive breastfeeding 0-6 months was protective against diarrhea (0-2 months: RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.32, 0.49; 3-5 months: RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75, 0.93) and ALRI (3-5 months: RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68, 0.98). Children with recent illness who were exclusively breastfed were half as likely as those not exclusively breastfed to experience diarrhea in the first 3 months of life. Recent illness was associated with greater risk of new illness, causing illnesses to cluster within children, indicating that specific illness-prevention programs may have benefits for preventing other childhood illnesses. The results also underscore the importance of exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life for disease prevention.

Astrovirus Infection and Diarrhea in 8 Countries

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Astroviruses are important drivers of viral gastroenteritis but remain understudied in community settings and low- and middle-income countries. We present data from 8 countries with high prevalence of diarrhea and undernutrition to describe astrovirus epidemiology and assess evidence for protective immunity among children 0 to 2 years of age.

METHODS

We used 25 898 surveillance stools and 7077 diarrheal stools contributed by 2082 children for enteropathogen testing, and longitudinal statistical analysis to describe incidence, risk factors, and protective immunity.

RESULTS

Thirty-five percent of children experienced astrovirus infections. Prevalence in diarrheal stools was 5.6%, and severity exceeded all enteropathogens except rotavirus. Incidence of infection and diarrhea were 2.12 and 0.88 episodes per 100 child-months, respectively. Children with astrovirus infection had 2.30 times the odds of experiencing diarrhea after adjustment for covariates (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01-2.62; P < .001). Undernutrition was a risk factor: odds of infection and diarrhea were reduced by 10% and 13%, respectively, per increase in length-for-age z score (infection: odds ratio, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85-0.96]; P < .001; diarrhea: odds ratio, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.96]; P = .006). Some evidence of protective immunity to infection was detected (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.71-1.00], P = .052), although this was heterogeneous between sites and significant in India and Peru.

CONCLUSIONS

Astrovirus is an overlooked cause of diarrhea among vulnerable children worldwide. With the evidence presented here, we highlight the need for future research as well as the potential for astrovirus to be a target for vaccine development.

Rotavirus Infection and Disease in a Multisite Birth Cohort: Results From the MAL-ED Study

Background

In a multicountry birth cohort study, we describe rotavirus infection in the first 2 years of life in sites with and without rotavirus vaccination programs.

Methods

Children were recruited by 17 days of age and followed to 24 months with collection of monthly surveillance and diarrheal stools. Data on sociodemographics, feeding, and illness were collected at defined intervals. Stools were tested for rotavirus and sera for antirotavirus immunoglobulins by enzyme immunoassays.

Results

A total of 1737 children contributed 22646 surveillance and 7440 diarrheal specimens. Overall, rotavirus was detected in 5.5% (408/7440) of diarrheal stools, and 344 (19.8%) children ever had rotavirus gastroenteritis. Household overcrowding and a high pathogen load were consistent risk factors for infection and disease. Three prior infections conferred 74% (P < .001) protection against subsequent infection in sites not using vaccine. In Peru, incidence of rotavirus disease was relatively higher during the second year of life despite high vaccination coverage.

Conclusions

Rotavirus infection and disease were common, but with significant heterogeneity by site. Protection by vaccination may not be sustained in the second year of life in settings with high burdens of transmission and poor response to oral vaccines.

Epidemiology of enteroaggregative Escherichia coli infections and associated outcomes in the MAL-ED birth cohort

Background

Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) have been associated with mildly inflammatory diarrhea in outbreaks and in travelers and have been increasingly recognized as enteric pathogens in young children with and without overt diarrhea. We examined the risk factors for EAEC infections and their associations with environmental enteropathy biomarkers and growth outcomes over the first two years of life in eight low-resource settings of the MAL-ED study.

Methods

EAEC infections were detected by PCR gene probes for aatA and aaiC virulence traits in 27,094 non-diarrheal surveillance stools and 7,692 diarrheal stools from 2,092 children in the MAL-ED birth cohort. We identified risk factors for EAEC and estimated the associations of EAEC with diarrhea, enteropathy biomarker concentrations, and both short-term (one to three months) and long-term (to two years of age) growth.

Results

Overall, 9,581 samples (27.5%) were positive for EAEC, and almost all children had at least one detection (94.8%) by two years of age. Exclusive breastfeeding, higher enrollment weight, and macrolide use within the preceding 15 days were protective. Although not associated with diarrhea, EAEC infections were weakly associated with biomarkers of intestinal inflammation and more strongly with reduced length at two years of age (LAZ difference associated with high frequency of EAEC detections: -0.30, 95% CI: -0.44, -0.16).

Conclusions

Asymptomatic EAEC infections were common early in life and were associated with linear growth shortfalls. Associations with intestinal inflammation were small in magnitude, but suggest a pathway for the growth impact. Increasing the duration of exclusive breastfeeding may help prevent these potentially inflammatory infections and reduce the long-term impact of early exposure to EAEC.

Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) are pathogens that infect the intestine and can cause diarrhea. They are also commonly identified among young children in low-resource settings, who can carry the pathogen without symptomatic diarrhea. We examined the risk factors for EAEC infections and their associations with child health outcomes over the first two years of life in eight low-resource settings of the MAL-ED study. EAEC infections were detected using molecular methods in more than 30,000 stools collected from 2,092 children in the MAL-ED study. We identified risk factors for EAEC and estimated the associations of EAEC with diarrhea, markers of intestinal health, and child growth. Almost all children were infected with EAEC at least once by two years of age. Exclusive breastfeeding, higher enrollment weight, and recent macrolide antibiotic use were protective against these infections. Although not associated with diarrhea in these children, EAEC infections were associated with intestinal inflammation and reduced length at two years of age. EAEC may impact child development, even in the absence of diarrhea, by causing intestinal inflammation and impairing child growth.

Infant Nutritional Status, Feeding Practices, Enteropathogen Exposure, Socioeconomic Status, and Illness Are Associated with Gut Barrier Function As Assessed by the Lactulose Mannitol Test in the MAL-ED Birth Cohort

The lactulose mannitol (LM) dual sugar permeability test is the most commonly used test of environmental enteropathy in developing countries. However, there is a large but conflicting literature on its association with enteric infection and host nutritional status. We conducted a longitudinal cohort using a single field protocol and comparable laboratory procedures to examine intestinal permeability in multiple, geographically diverse pediatric populations. Using a previously published systematic review to guide the selection of factors potentially associated with LM test results, we examined the relationships between these factors and mucosal breach, represented by percent lactulose excretion; absorptive area, represented by percent mannitol excretion; and gut barrier function, represented by the L/M ratio. A total of 6,602 LM tests were conducted in 1,980 children at 3, 6, 9, and 15 months old; percent lactulose excretion, percent mannitol excretion, and the L/M ratio were expressed as age- and sex-specific normalized values using the Brazil cohort as the reference population. Among the factors considered, recent severe diarrhea, lower socioeconomic status, and recent asymptomatic enteropathogen infections were associated with decreased percent mannitol excretion and higher L/M ratios. Poorer concurrent weight-for-age, infection, and recent breastfeeding were associated with increased percent lactulose excretion and increased L/M ratios. Our results support previously reported associations between the L/M ratio and factors related to child nutritional status and enteropathogen exposure. These results were remarkably consistent across sites and support the hypothesis that the frequency of these exposures in communities living in poverty leads to alterations in gut barrier function.

A methodologic framework for modeling and assessing biomarkers of environmental enteropathy as predictors of growth in infants: an example from a Peruvian birth cohort

Background: Environmental enteropathy (EE) impairs the gut's absorptive capacity and immune function and causes decelerations in statural growth that manifest gradually over time.Objective: To illustrate an approach for assessing emerging biomarkers of EE, we separately assessed the associations between 3 such markers and subsequent nutritional status.Design: Stool samples were routinely collected between January 2010 and November 2014 from a cohort of 303 Peruvian infants and analyzed for concentrations of the biomarkers α-1-antitrypsin (AAT), myeloperoxidase, and neopterin. For each marker, a mixed-effects linear regression model was fitted for length-for-age z scores (LAZs) obtained from anthropometric assessments that incorporated covariate predictors, polynomial terms for age, and product interaction terms to test associations over varying lag lengths. The biomarkers' contribution to the models was assessed with the use of the likelihood ratio test and partial R² statistics.Results: Test statistics for the combined inclusion of the 4-model terms that involved the biomarker were highly statistically significant for AAT (28.71; P < 0.0001) and myeloperoxidase (62.79; P < 0.0001) over a 3-mo lag and moderately so for neopterin (13.97; P = 0.0074). AAT and myeloperoxidase seemed to interact strongly with age, with the magnitude and direction of the effect varying considerably over the first 3 y of life. The largest proportion of the variance explained by any biomarker (2.8%) and the largest difference in LAZ predicted between the 5th and 95th percentile (0.25) was by myeloperoxidase over a 2-mo lag.Conclusions: Of the 3 fecal biomarkers studied, 2 that related to intestinal function-AAT and myeloperoxidase-were associated with small but highly statistically significant differences in future statural growth trajectories in infants in this cohort, lending further evidence to the EE hypothesis that increased gut permeability and inflammation adversely affects subsequent nutritional status. This association exhibited a complex interaction with age. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02441426.

Determinants and Impact of Giardia Infection in the First 2 Years of Life in the MAL-ED Birth Cohort

BACKGROUND.

Giardia are among the most common enteropathogens detected in children in low-resource settings. We describe here the epidemiology of infection with Giardia in the first 2 years of life in the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development Project (MAL-ED), a multisite birth-cohort study.

METHODS.

From 2089 children, 34916 stool samples collected during monthly surveillance and episodes of diarrhea were tested for Giardia using an enzyme immunoassay. We quantified the risk of Giardia detection, identified risk factors, and assessed the associations with micronutrients, markers of gut inflammation and permeability, diarrhea, and growth using multivariable linear regression.

RESULTS.

The incidence of at least 1 Giardia detection varied according to site (range, 37.7%-96.4%) and was higher in the second year of life. Exclusive breastfeeding (HR for first Giardia detection in a monthly surveillance stool sample, 0.46 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.28-0.75]), higher socioeconomic status (HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.56-0.97]), and recent metronidazole treatment (risk ratio for any surveillance stool detection, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.56-0.84]) were protective. Persistence of Giardia (consecutive detections) in the first 6 months of life was associated with reduced subsequent diarrheal rates in Naushahro Feroze, Pakistan but not at any other site. Giardia detection was also associated with an increased lactulose/mannitol ratio. Persistence of Giardia before 6 months of age was associated with a -0.29 (95% CI, -0.53 to -0.05) deficit in weight-for-age z score and -0.29 (95% CI, -0.64 to 0.07) deficit in length-for-age z score at 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS.

Infection with Giardia occurred across epidemiological contexts, and repeated detections in 40% of the children suggest that persistent infections were common. Early persistent infection with Giardia, independent of diarrhea, might contribute to intestinal permeability and stunted growth.

Causal Pathways from Enteropathogens to Environmental Enteropathy: Findings from the MAL-ED Birth Cohort Study

•

Children living in these settings had a high prevalence of enteropathogens, high levels of intestinal inflammation, abnormal intestinal permeability, high markers of systemic inflammation, and postnatal acquired linear growth deficits when compared to children living in the US or Europe

•

This study contributes empiric evidence to demonstrate that enteric infection alters both fecal markers of inflammation and permeability

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Current markers of enteropathy fail to account for a large portion of the observed shortfalls in linear growth in these populations, and markers of systemic inflammation appear as the most promising predictive biomarkers for identifying linear growth failure in children

Environmental enteropathy (EE) is hypothesized as a mediator of growth faltering, but few prospective studies have evaluated pathways linking enteropathogen exposure, intestinal inflammation and permeability, and growth. The MAL-ED study represents a novel analytical framework and explicitly evaluates multiple putative EE pathways in combination and using an unprecedented quantity of data. Despite evidence that gut inflammation and altered gut permeability are frequently present and that associations between enteropathogen exposure and gut dysfunction exist, the observed attributable effects of EE on growth faltering in young children were small.

Background

Environmental enteropathy (EE), the adverse impact of frequent and numerous enteric infections on the gut resulting in a state of persistent immune activation and altered permeability, has been proposed as a key determinant of growth failure in children in low- and middle-income populations. A theory-driven systems model to critically evaluate pathways through which enteropathogens, gut permeability, and intestinal and systemic inflammation affect child growth was conducted within the framework of the Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) birth cohort study that included children from eight countries.

Methods

Non-diarrheal stool samples (N = 22,846) from 1253 children from multiple sites were evaluated for a panel of 40 enteropathogens and fecal concentrations of myeloperoxidase, alpha-1-antitrypsin, and neopterin. Among these same children, urinary lactulose:mannitol (L:M) (N = 6363) and plasma alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) (N = 2797) were also measured. The temporal sampling design was used to create a directed acyclic graph of proposed mechanistic pathways between enteropathogen detection in non-diarrheal stools, biomarkers of intestinal permeability and inflammation, systemic inflammation and change in length- and weight- for age in children 0–2 years of age.

Findings

Children in these populations had frequent enteric infections and high levels of both intestinal and systemic inflammation. Higher burdens of enteropathogens, especially those categorized as being enteroinvasive or causing mucosal disruption, were associated with elevated biomarker concentrations of gut and systemic inflammation and, via these associations, indirectly associated with both reduced linear and ponderal growth. Evidence for the association with reduced linear growth was stronger for systemic inflammation than for gut inflammation; the opposite was true of reduced ponderal growth. Although Giardia was associated with reduced growth, the association was not mediated by any of the biomarkers evaluated.

Interpretation

The large quantity of empirical evidence contributing to this analysis supports the conceptual model of EE. The effects of EE on growth faltering in young children were small, but multiple mechanistic pathways underlying the attribution of growth failure to asymptomatic enteric infections had statistical support in the analysis. The strongest evidence for EE was the association between enteropathogens and linear growth mediated through systemic inflammation.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dynamics and Trends in Fecal Biomarkers of Gut Function in Children from 1-24 Months in the MAL-ED Study

Growth and development shortfalls that are disproportionately prevalent in children living in poor environmental conditions are postulated to result, at least in part, from abnormal gut function. Using data from The Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) longitudinal cohort study, we examine biomarkers of gut inflammation and permeability in relation to environmental exposures and feeding practices. Trends in the concentrations of three biomarkers, myeloperoxidase (MPO), neopterin (NEO), and α-1-antitrypsin (AAT), are described from fecal samples collected during the first 2 years of each child's life. A total of 22,846 stool samples were processed during the longitudinal sampling of 2,076 children 0–24 months of age. Linear mixed models were constructed to examine the relationship between biomarker concentrations and recent food intake, symptoms of illness, concurrent enteropathogen infection, and socioeconomic status. Average concentrations of MPO, NEO, and AAT were considerably higher than published references for healthy adults. The concentration of each biomarker tended to decrease over the first 2 years of life and was highly variable between samples from each individual child. Both MPO and AAT were significantly elevated by recent breast milk intake. All three biomarkers were associated with pathogen presence, although the strength and direction varied by pathogen. The interpretation of biomarker concentrations is subject to the context of their collection. Herein, we identify that common factors (age, breast milk, and enteric infection) influence the concentration of these biomarkers. Within the context of low- and middle-income communities, we observe concentrations that indicate gut abnormalities, but more appropriate reference standards are needed.

Use of antibiotics in children younger than two years in eight countries: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the frequency and factors associated with antibiotic use in early childhood, and estimate the proportion of diarrhoea and respiratory illnesses episodes treated with antibiotics.

METHODS

Between 2009 and 2014, we followed 2134 children from eight sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, South Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania, enrolled in the MAL-ED birth cohort study. We documented all antibiotic use from mothers' reports at twice-weekly visits over the children's first two years of life. We estimated the incidence of antibiotic use and the associations of antibiotic use with child and household characteristics. We described treatment patterns for diarrhoea and respiratory illnesses, and identified factors associated with treatment and antibiotic class.

FINDINGS

Over 1 346 388 total days of observation, 16 913 courses of antibiotics were recorded (an incidence of 4.9 courses per child per year), with the highest use in South Asia. Antibiotic treatment was given for 375/499 (75.2%) episodes of bloody diarrhoea and for 4274/9661 (44.2%) episodes of diarrhoea without bloody stools. Antibiotics were used in 2384/3943 (60.5%) episodes of fieldworker-confirmed acute lower respiratory tract illness as well as in 6608/16742 (39.5%) episodes of upper respiratory illness. Penicillins were used most frequently for respiratory illness, while antibiotic classes for diarrhoea treatment varied within and between sites.

CONCLUSION

Repeated antibiotic exposure was common early in life, and treatment of non-bloody diarrhoea and non-specific respiratory illnesses was not consistent with international recommendations. Rational antibiotic use programmes may have the most impact in South Asia, where antibiotic use was highest.

Plasma Tryptophan and the Kynurenine-Tryptophan Ratio are Associated with the Acquisition of Statural Growth Deficits and Oral Vaccine Underperformance in Populations with Environmental Enteropathy

Early childhood enteric infections have adverse impacts on child growth and can inhibit normal mucosal responses to oral vaccines, two critical components of environmental enteropathy. To evaluate the role of indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO1) activity and its relationship with these outcomes, we measured tryptophan and the kynurenine–tryptophan ratio (KTR) in two longitudinal birth cohorts with a high prevalence of stunting. Children in rural Peru and Tanzania (N = 494) contributed 1,251 plasma samples at 3, 7, 15, and 24 months of age and monthly anthropometrics from 0 to 36 months of age. Tryptophan concentrations were directly associated with linear growth from 1 to 8 months after biomarker assessment. A 1-SD increase in tryptophan concentration was associated with a gain in length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) of 0.17 over the next 6 months in Peru (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.11–0.23, P < 0.001) and a gain in LAZ of 0.13 Z-scores in Tanzania (95% CI = 0.03–0.22, P = 0.009). Vaccine responsiveness data were available for Peru only. An increase in kynurenine by 1 μM was associated with a 1.63 (95% CI = 1.13–2.34) increase in the odds of failure to poliovirus type 1, but there was no association with tetanus vaccine response. A KTR of 52 was 76% sensitive and 50% specific in predicting failure of response to serotype 1 of the oral polio vaccine. KTR was associated with systemic markers of inflammation, but also interleukin-10, supporting the association between IDO1 activity and immunotolerance. These results strongly suggest that the activity of IDO1 is implicated in the pathophysiology of environmental enteropathy, and demonstrates the utility of tryptophan and kynurenine as biomarkers for this syndrome, particularly in identifying those at risk for hyporesponsivity to oral vaccines.

How multiple episodes of exclusive breastfeeding impact estimates of exclusive breastfeeding duration: report from the eight-site MAL-ED birth cohort study

The duration of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is often defined as the time from birth to the first non‐breast milk food/liquid fed (EBFLONG), or it is estimated by calculating the proportion of women at a given infant age who EBF in the previous 24 h (EBFDHS). Others have measured the total days or personal prevalence of EBF (EBFPREV), recognizing that although non‐EBF days may occur, EBF can be re‐initiated for extended periods. We compared breastfeeding metrics in the MAL‐ED study; infants' breastfeeding trajectories were characterized from enrollment (median 7 days, IQR: 4, 12) to 180 days at eight sites. During twice‐weekly surveillance, caretakers were queried about infant feeding the prior day. Overall, 101 833 visits and 356 764 child days of data were collected from 1957 infants. Median duration of EBFLONG was 33 days (95% CI: 32–36), compared to 49 days based on the EBFDHS. Median EBFPREV was 66 days (95% CI: 62–70). Differences were because of the return to EBF after a non‐EBF period. The median number of returns to EBF was 2 (IQR: 1, 3). When mothers re‐initiated EBF (second episode), infants gained an additional 18.8 days (SD: 25.1) of EBF, and gained 13.7 days (SD: 18.1) (third episode). In settings where women report short gaps in EBF, programmes should work with women to return to EBF. Interventions could positively influence the duration of these additional periods of EBF and their quantification should be considered in impact evaluation studies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Improving the detection of environmental enteric dysfunction: a lactulose, rhamnose assay of intestinal permeability in children aged under 5 years exposed to poor sanitation and hygiene

Background

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an asymptomatic intestinal disorder affecting populations living in conditions of poor sanitation and hygiene. The study tested intestinal barrier function in infants with EED.

Methods

We prospectively studied an advanced high-performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry assay of urine collected after oral intake of the monosaccharide, L-rhamnose and the disaccharide, lactulose, in 112 children from three continents.

Findings

Compared to the US cohort (n=27), the cohorts of children from Peru (n=19) and Zambia (n=85) were older with evidence of growth impairment. The median (range) of age (months) was 8.0 (2.0 to 13.0), 27.0 (15.0 to 29.0) and 21.0 (12.0 to 36.0), respectively. The median (range) of height for age Z score was −0.1 (−1.8 to 2.4), −1.8 (−3.3 to −0.2) and −2.3 (−8.5 to 1.2), respectively. Among children with valid sugar data (n=22 USA, n=19 Peru, n=73 Zambia), there were no significant differences in the median rhamnose urine concentrations between the three groups. The median (range) lactulose concentration (µg/mL) was 6.78 (0.29 to 31.90), 47.60 (4.23 to 379.00) and 75.40 (0.67 to 873.00) in the US, Peruvian and Zambian cohorts, respectively (p<0.001). The lactulose/rhamnose ratio (LRR) was higher in cohorts from Peru (0.75, 0.15, 5.02) and Zambia (2.26, 0.08, 14.48) compared to the US (0.14, 0.06, 1.00) cohort (p<0.001). In a multivariate effect modification model, higher weight-for-age z scores were associated with lower post-dose lactulose when rhamnose excretion was constant (p=0.003).

Conclusions

This non-invasive two saccharide permeability protocol measures changes in intestinal permeability in children with EED and permits the identification of individuals for interventional trials.

Norovirus Infection and Acquired Immunity in 8 Countries: Results From the MAL-ED Study

BACKGROUND

Norovirus is an important cause of childhood diarrhea. We present data from a longitudinal, multicountry study describing norovirus epidemiology during the first 2 years of life.

METHODS

A birth cohort of 1457 children across 8 countries contributed 7077 diarrheal stools for norovirus testing. A subset of 199 children contributed additional asymptomatic samples (2307) and diarrheal stools (770), which were used to derive incidence rates and evaluate evidence for acquired immunity.

RESULTS

Across sites, 89% of children experienced at least 1 norovirus infection before 24 months, and 22.7% of all diarrheal stools were norovirus positive. Severity of norovirus-positive diarrhea was comparable to other enteropathogens, with the exception of rotavirus. Incidence of genogroup II (GII) infection was higher than genogroup I and peaked at 6-11 months across sites. Undernutrition was a risk factor for symptomatic norovirus infection, with an increase in 1 standard deviation of length-for-age z score associated with a 17% reduction (odds ratio, 0.83 [95% confidence interval, .72-.97]; P = .011) in the odds of experiencing diarrhea when norovirus was present, after accounting for genogroup, rotavirus vaccine, and age. Evidence of acquired immunity was observed among GII infections only: Children with prior GII infection were found to have a 27% reduction in the hazard of subsequent infection (hazard ratio, 0.727; P = .010).

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of norovirus across 8 sites in highly variable epidemiologic settings and demonstration of protective immunity for GII infections provide support for investment in vaccine development.

Assessment of an automated capillary system for Plasmodium vivax microsatellite genotyping

BACKGROUND

Several platforms have been used to generate the primary data for microsatellite analysis of malaria parasite genotypes. Each has relative advantages but share a limitation of being time- and cost-intensive. A commercially available automated capillary gel cartridge system was assessed in the microsatellite analysis of Plasmodium vivax diversity in the Peruvian Amazon.

METHODS

The reproducibility and accuracy of a commercially-available automated capillary system, QIAxcel, was assessed using a sequenced PCR product of 227 base pairs. This product was measured 42 times, then 27 P. vivax samples from Peruvian Amazon subjects were analyzed with this instrument using five informative microsatellites. Results from the QIAxcel system were compared with a Sanger-type sequencing machine, the ABI PRISM(®) 3100 Genetic Analyzer.

RESULTS

Significant differences were seen between the sequenced amplicons and the results from the QIAxcel instrument. Different runs, plates and cartridges yielded significantly different results. Additionally, allele size decreased with each run by 0.045, or 1 bp, every three plates. QIAxcel and ABI PRISM systems differed in giving different values than those obtained by ABI PRISM, and too many (i.e. inaccurate) alleles per locus were also seen with the automated instrument.

CONCLUSIONS

While P. vivax diversity could generally be estimated using an automated capillary gel cartridge system, the data demonstrate that this system is not sufficiently precise for reliably identifying parasite strains via microsatellite analysis. This conclusion reached after systematic analysis was due both to inadequate precision and poor reproducibility in measuring PCR product size.

Cost-effectiveness of norovirus vaccination in children in Peru

BACKGROUND

With candidate norovirus (NV) vaccines in a rapid phase of development, assessment of the potential economic value of vaccine implementation will be necessary to aid health officials in vaccine implementation decisions. To date, no evaluations have been performed to evaluate the benefit of adopting NV vaccines for use in the childhood immunization programs of low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We used a Markov decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding a two-dose NV vaccine to Peru's routine childhood immunization schedule using two recent estimates of NV incidence, one for a peri-urban region and one for a jungle region of the country.

RESULTS

Using the peri-urban NV incidence estimate, the annual cost of vaccination would be $13.0 million, offset by $2.6 million in treatment savings. Overall, this would result in 473 total DALYs averted; 526,245 diarrhea cases averted;153,735 outpatient visits averted; and 414 hospitalizations averted between birth and the fifth year of life. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio would be $21,415 per DALY averted; $19.86 per diarrhea case; $68.23 per outpatient visit; and $26,298 per hospitalization. Using the higher jungle NV incidence rates provided a lower cost per DALY of $10,135. The incremental cost per DALY with per-urban NV incidence is greater than three times the 2012 GDP per capita of Peru but the estimate drops below this threshold using the incidence from the jungle setting. In addition to the impact of incidence, sensitivity analysis showed that vaccine price and efficacy play a strong role in determining the level of cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of a NV vaccine would prevent many healthcare outcomes in the Peru and potentially be cost-effective in scenarios with high NV incidence. The vaccine cost-effectiveness model could also be applied to the evaluation of NV vaccine cost-effectiveness in other countries. In resource-poor settings, where NV incidence rates are expected to be higher.

A phase one safety study of Lactobacillus reuteri conducted in the Peruvian Amazon: Observations from the field

Clinical research on probiotics presents challenging issues for researchers, regulators, and funding agencies, and these issues become more complex when United States federally funded research is conducted outside the United States. Here, we describe the design and results of a Phase I safety study of Lactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938 conducted as a community-based trial under the Food and Drug Administration Investigative New Drug (FDA IND) program in a small town in the Peruvian Amazon. Forty-five healthy adults 18 to 65 years of age were randomized in a 2:1 ratio to receive either Lactobacillus reuteri 10(8) organisms once daily for 5 days or an identical appearing placebo. Results showed no evidence of invasive infection resulting from probiotic administration and no differences between groups. Although we encountered several challenges in conducting an FDA-approved safety trial in this setting, the rigorously collected contextually relevant data will be very valuable to support later Phase II/III studies of L. reuteri for use in similar settings.

REG1B as a predictor of childhood stunting in Bangladesh and Peru

BACKGROUND

Undernutrition remains a significant problem worldwide, with environmental enteropathy implicated as a contributing factor. An understanding of the pathogenesis and identification of children at risk are critical to the design of more-effective interventions.

OBJECTIVE

The stool regenerating gene 1β (REG1B) protein, which is a putative measure of intestinal injury and repair, was tested as a noninvasive biomarker of future childhood stunting.

DESIGN

A total of 222 children from Bangladesh and 97 children from Peru, who were from impoverished communities, were followed from birth through 24 mo of age with anthropometric measures obtained every 3 mo. Stool REG1B protein concentrations were obtained by using an REG1B polyclonal-polyclonal ELISA at 3 mo of age. We tested for the ability of REG1B to forecast future anthropometric shortfalls, independent of known predictors of undernutrition of family income and baseline height and weight.

RESULTS

In the Bangladesh cohort of 222 children, higher REG1B concentrations at month 3 were significantly and independently associated with a growth shortfall in a linear regression analysis at months 9, 12, 18, 21, and 24 and, in the Peru cohort, at months 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24. With the use of a mixed model for repeated measurements, higher stool REG1B concentrations at 3 mo were also independently predictive of a lower future length-for-age z score through 24 mo of age (Bangladesh P = 0.006; Peru P = 0.058).

CONCLUSION

The ability of fecal REG1B to predict growth shortfall in independent cohorts of impoverished children from the developing world offers promise as a malnutrition biomarker and supports a role for environmental enteropathy in the pathogenesis of growth shortfall.