Lessons Learnt and Pathways forward for National Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems after the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on government services in many areas, including Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS). However, the pandemic has also highlighted the importance of recording of mortality and causes of death, with some potentially positive impacts for longer term CRVS strengthening, including: (1) increasing online provision of registration services (2) reporting of mortality statistics from settings which had not previously done so (3) improved intersectoral cooperation, particularly with the health sector, improving the ability to record deaths and (4) increased awareness among governments and public of the importance of mortality statistics. Now, it is pressing for national governments, and international organizations working to strengthen CRVS systems, to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies adopted over the last year, and use lessons learnt to catalyse broader sustainable CRVS improvement strategies, providing governments with essential data on mortality and causes of death into the future.

Lakshmi PV, Prinja S, Singh T, Sirari T, Rao C. Comparative performance of verbal autopsy methods in identifying causes of adult mortality: A case study in India

Background & objectives:

Cause of death assignment from verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires is conventionally accomplished through physician review. However, since recently, computer softwares have been developed to assign the cause of death. The present study evaluated the performance of computer software in assigning the cause of death from the VA, as compared to physician review.

Methods:

VA of 600 adult deaths was conducted using open- and close-ended questionnaires in Nandpur Kalour Block of Punjab, India. Entire VA forms were used by two physicians independently to assign the cause of death using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD)-10 codes. In case of disagreement between them, reconciliation was done, and in cases of persistent disagreements finally, adjudication was done by a third physician. InterVA-4-generated causes from close-ended questionnaires were compared using Kappa statistics with causes assigned by physicians using a questionnaire having both open- and close-ended questions. At the population level, Cause-Specific Mortality Fraction (CSMF) accuracy and P-value from McNemar’s paired Chi-square were calculated. CSMF accuracy indicates the absolute deviation of a set of proportions of causes of death out of the total number of deaths between the two methods.

Results:

The overall agreement between InterVA-4 and physician coding was ‘fair’ (κ=0.42; 95% confidence interval 0.38, 0.46). CSMF accuracy was found to be 0.71. The differences in proportions from the two methods were statistically different as per McNemar’s paired Chi-square test for ischaemic heart diseases, liver cirrhosis and maternal deaths.

Interpretation & conclusions:

In comparison to physicians, assignment of causes of death by InterVA- 4 was only ‘fair’. Hence, it may be appropriate to continue with physician review as the optimal option available in the current scenario.

Building Capacity for Mortality Statistics Programs: Perspectives from the Indonesian Experience

Information on deaths by age, sex, and cause are primary inputs for health policy and epidemiological research. Currently, most developing countries lack efficient death registration systems that generate these data on a routine and timely basis. The global community is promoting initiatives to establish and strengthen national mortality statistics programs across the developing world. Building human, technical, and institutional capacity to operate these programs are essential elements for the program. In Indonesia, the government has established a national Sample Registration System (SRS) covering a population of 9 million and is looking toward further scaling up of operations of the mortality statistics program in conjunction with expansion of the national Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems. This article reports the theoretical and practical perspectives gained from experiences in developing human capacity in the Indonesian context. These perspectives are described in terms of the institutional, personnel, and functional components of the program for collection, compilation, analysis, and utilisation of mortality and cause of death data. The article also describes the challenges and potential solutions for implementing capacity building activities at national and subnational level. In conclusion, the need for and availability of training resources are discussed, including the potential for involvement of public health academia and international collaborations within a research framework on program management, quality evaluation, and data utilisation. Adequate attention to capacity building is essential to ensure the success and sustainability of national mortality statistics programs.

Evaluating the quality of evidence for diagnosing ischemic heart disease from verbal autopsy in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Mortality and cause of death data are fundamental to health policy development. Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems are the ideal data source, but the system is still under development in Indonesia. A national Sample Registration System (SRS) has provided nationally representative mortality data from 128 sub-districts since 2014. Verbal autopsy (VA) is used in the SRS to obtain causes of death. The quality of VA data must be evaluated as part of the SRS data quality assessment.

AIM

To assess the strength of evidence used in the assignment of Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) as causes of death from VA.

METHODS

The sample frame for this study is the 4,070 deaths that had IHD assigned as the underlying cause in the SRS 2016 database. From these, 400 cases were randomly selected. A data extraction form and data entry template were designed to collect relevant data about IHD from VA questionnaires. A standardised categorisation was designed to assess the strength of evidence used to infer IHD as a cause of death. A pilot test of 50 cases was carried out. IBM SPSS software was used in this study.

RESULTS

Strong evidence of IHD as a cause of death was assigned based on surgery for coronary heart disease, chest pain and two out of: sudden death, history of heart disease, medical diagnosis of heart disease, or terminal shortness of breath. More than half (53%) of the questionnaires contained strong evidence. For deaths outside health facilities, VA questionnaires for male deaths contained acceptable evidence in significantly higher proportions as compared to those for female deaths. (P < 0.001). Nearly half of all IHD deaths were concentrated in the 50-69 year age group (48.40%), and a further 36.10% were aged 70 years or more. Nearly two-thirds of the deceased were male (58.40%). Smoking behaviour was found in 44.11% of IHD deaths, but this figure was 73.82% among males.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the VA questionnaires from the study sample were found to contain strong evidence to infer IHD as the cause of death. Results from medical records such as electrocardiograms, coronary angiographies, and load tests could have improved the strength of evidence and contributed to IHD cause of death diagnosis.

Elements of a strategic approach for strengthening national mortality statistics programmes

Information on cause-specific mortality from civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems is essential for health policy and epidemiological research. Currently, there are critical gaps in the international availability of timely and reliable mortality data, which limits planned progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This article describes an evidence-based strategic approach for strengthening mortality data from CRVS systems. National mortality data availability scores from the Global Burden of Disease study were used to group countries into those with adequate, partial or negligible mortality data. These were further categorised by geographical region and population size, which showed that there were shortcomings in availability of mortality data in approximately two-thirds of all countries. Existing frameworks for evaluating design and functional status of mortality components of CRVS systems were reviewed to identify themes and topics for assessment. Detailed national programme assessments can be used to investigate systemic issues that are likely to affect death reporting, cause of death ascertainment and data management. Assessment findings can guide interventions to strengthen system performance. The strategic national approach should be customised according to data availability and population size and supported by human and institutional capacity building. Countries with larger populations should use an incremental sampling approach to strengthen CRVS systems and use interim data for mortality estimation. Periodic data quality evaluation is required to monitor system performance and scale up interventions. A comprehensive implementation and operations research programme should be concurrently launched to evaluate the feasibility, success and sustainability of system strengthening activities.

Changes in proportional mortality from diabetes and circulatory disease in Mauritius and Fiji: possible effects of coding and certification

Background

Many developing countries are experiencing the epidemiological transition, with the majority of deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and others. In some countries, large proportional mortality attributed to diabetes is evident in official mortality statistics, with Mauritius and Fiji rated as the highest in the world.

Methods

This study investigates trends in recorded diabetes and cardiovascular disease mortality in Mauritius and Fiji under coding from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) versions 9 and 10, using mortality data reported from these countries to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Results

In Mauritius over 1981–2004, T2DM proportional mortality varied between 4% and 7% in males (M) and 5% and 9% in females (F). In 2005 there was a sudden increase to M 20% and F 25%, which continued to M 25% and F 30% by 2012. Over 1981–2004 the proportion of circulatory disease mortality rose from 44% to 49% in males, and from 46% to 57% in females. In 2005, circulatory disease mortality proportions fell precipitously to 34% in males and 37% in females, and declined to 31% and 34% by 2013. ICD–10 coding was introduced in 2005.

In Fiji, sharp rises in proportional T2DM mortality from 3% in both sexes in 2001 to M 15% and F 20% in 2002 were followed by more gradual trend increases to M 20% and F 26% by 2012–13. Circulatory disease proportions fell steeply from M 57% and F 53% in 2001 to M 44% and M 38% by 2004, with subsequent less steep declines to M 39% and F 30% by 2012. ICD–10 coding was introduced in 2001.

Conclusions

Large, abrupt changes in diabetes and circulatory disease proportional mortality in Fiji and Mauritius coincided with the local introduction of ICD–10 coding in different years. There is also evidence for diabetes-related misclassification of underlying cause of death in Australia and the USA. These artefacts can undermine accurate monitoring of cause of death for evaluation of effectiveness of prevention and control, especially of circulatory disease mortality which is demonstrably reversible in populations.

Death in Transitional Asia: 11-Year All-Cause Mortality in the Thai Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: Thailand is experiencing a substantial reduction in overall mortality, an ageing society and increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases. There is an urgent need to understand locally important risk factors for this new disease burden and their distribution. We investigated risk factors for mortality in a large cohort of Thai adults and report on key trends. PARTICIPANTS: A nationwide cohort of 87,151 Thai adults followed up since 2005 with their data records linked to the Thai civil registration system to monitor mortality up to the end of 2016. METHODS: We used logistic regression models to measure associations between a large range of socio-demographic, health behaviour and health status variables and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 1402 cohort members died between 2005 and 2016. In fully-adjusted models higher income, female sex, and higher education had the strongest protective effects against mortality. Normal body weight also protected (AOR 0.71 [0.52-0.96] with Obese as reference). Heavy smoking (AOR 1.48 [1.29-1.70]), and regular alcohol consumption (AOR 1.37 [1.12-1.68]) were associated with the highest mortality. Experiencing injury in the year proceeding the baseline survey also associated with increased mortality, while urbanising since childhood had a protective effect. CONCLUSION: This study adds to evidence regarding risks for all-cause mortality in Thailand. Results indicate the need for Thailand to maintain successful tobacco control programs and to address the effects of increased alcohol consumption. The protective effect of higher education is particularly important in Thailand given the growing proportion of the population who are finishing high school and moving to higher education.

Cause-specific mortality estimates for Malaysia in 2013: results from a national sample verification study using medical record review and verbal autopsy

Background

Mortality indicators are essential for monitoring population health. Although Malaysia has a functional death registration system, the quality of information on causes of death still needs improvement, since approximately 30% of deaths are classified to poorly defined causes. This study was conducted to verify registered causes in a sample of deaths in 2013 and utilise the findings to estimate cause-specific mortality indicators for Malaysia in 2013.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional study involving a nationally representative sample of 14,497 deaths distributed across 19 districts. Registered causes of deaths were verified using standard medical record review protocols for hospital deaths, and locally adapted international standard verbal autopsy procedures for deaths outside hospitals. The findings were used to measure the validity and reliability of the registration data, as well as to establish plausible cause-specific mortality fractions for hospital and non-hospital deaths, which were subsequently used as the basis for estimating national cause-specific mortality indicators.

Results

The overall response rate for the study was 67%. Verified causes of 5041 hospital deaths and 3724 deaths outside hospitals were used to derive national mortality estimates for 2013 by age, sex and cause. The study was able to reclassify most of the ill-defined deaths to a specific cause. The leading causes of deaths for males were Ischaemic Heart Disease (15.4%), Cerebrovascular diseases (13.7%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (8.5%) and Road Traffic Accident (8.0%). Among females, the leading causes were Cerebrovascular diseases (18.3%), Ischaemic Heart Disease (12.7%), Lower Respiratory Infections (11.5%) and Diabetes Mellitus (7.2%).

Conclusions

Investigation of registered causes of death using verbal autopsy and medical record review yielded adequate information to enable estimation of cause-specific mortality indicators in Malaysia. Strengthening the national mortality statistics system must be made a priority as it is a core data source for policy and evaluation of the public health and healthcare sectors in Malaysia.

Contact X-ray Brachytherapy as an Adjunct to a Watch and Wait Approach is an Affordable Alternative to Standard Surgical Management of Rectal Cancer for Patients with a Partial Clinical Response to Chemoradiotherapy

AIMS

Emerging evidence suggests that contact X-ray brachytherapy (CXB) may increase the clinical complete response rate and durability when administered after standard chemoradiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer. The addition of CXB in partial responders is therefore probably cost-effective. The affordability of widening access to CXB in the UK, however, has not been evaluated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Decision analytical modelling with Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate long-term costs for the management of patients with rectal cancers who were given a CXB boost when a clinical complete response was not initially achieved following chemoradiotherapy in order to facilitate a watch and wait approach. A third-party payer (National Health Service) perspective was adopted, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out and a scenario analysis was performed to investigate the effect of the number of referral centres and number of patients treated with CXB.

RESULTS

We estimate that 818 (95% confidence interval 628-1021) patients per year are eligible for CXB as an adjunct to a watch and wait approach in England and Wales. As this management is less costly than surgical management for each individual patient, the more patients treated, the more affordable the technology. Even if as few as 125 patients are treated nationally in 15 centres, the cost of implementing this technology would be less than £4 million. If the average number of patients treated in each centre is 30, this technology would be cost saving within 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of CXB is not prohibitive according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold for implementation of new technology and may even be cost saving within 5 years compared with standard surgical management, depending on the uptake of the technology and the number of referral centres.

Validation of verbal autopsy methods using hospital medical records: a case study in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Information on causes of death (COD) is crucial for measuring the health outcomes of populations and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. In many countries such as Vietnam where the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system is dysfunctional, information on vital events will continue to rely on verbal autopsy (VA) methods. This study assesses the validity of VA methods used in Vietnam, and provides recommendations on methods for implementing VA validation studies in Vietnam.

METHODS

This validation study was conducted on a sample of 670 deaths from a recent VA study in Quang Ninh province. The study covered 116 cases from this sample, which met three inclusion criteria: a) the death occurred within 30 days of discharge after last hospitalisation, and b) medical records (MRs) for the deceased were available from respective hospitals, and c) the medical record mentioned that the patient was terminally ill at discharge. For each death, the underlying cause of death (UCOD) identified from MRs was compared to the UCOD from VA. The validity of VA diagnoses for major causes of death was measured using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).

RESULTS

The sensitivity of VA was at least 75% in identifying some leading CODs such as stroke, road traffic accidents and several site-specific cancers. However, sensitivity was less than 50% for other important causes including ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and diabetes. Overall, there was 57% agreement between UCOD from VA and MR, which increased to 76% when multiple causes from VA were compared to UCOD from MR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that VA is a valid method to ascertain UCOD in contexts such as Vietnam. Furthermore, within cultural contexts in which patients prefer to die at home instead of a healthcare facility, using the available MRs as the gold standard may be meaningful to the extent that recall bias from the interval between last hospital discharge and death can be minimized. Therefore, future studies should evaluate validity of MRs as a gold standard for VA studies in contexts similar to the Vietnamese context.