Estimating the lagged effect of price discounting: a time-series study on sugar sweetened beverage purchasing in a supermarket

Background

Price discount is an unregulated obesogenic environmental risk factor for the purchasing of unhealthy food, including Sugar Sweetened Beverages (SSB). Sales of price discounted food items are known to increase during the period of discounting. However, the presence and extent of the lagged effect of discounting, a sustained level of sales after discounting ends, is previously unaccounted for. We investigated the presence of the lagged effect of discounting on the sales of five SSB categories, which are soda, fruit juice, sport and energy drink, sugar-sweetened coffee and tea, and sugar-sweetened drinkable yogurt.

Methods

We fitted distributed lag models to weekly volume-standardized sales and percent discounting generated by a supermarket in Montreal, Canada between January 2008 and December 2013, inclusive (n = 311 weeks).

Results

While the sales of SSB increased during the period of discounting, there was no evidence of a prominent lagged effect of discounting in four of the five SSB; the exception was sports and energy drinks, where a posterior mean of 28,459 servings (95% credible interval: 2661 to 67,253) of excess sales can be attributed to the lagged effect in the target store during the 6 years study period.

Conclusion

Our results indicate that studies that do not account for the lagged effect of promotions may not fully capture the effect of price discounting for some food categories.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13928-w.

The epidemiological impact of the Canadian COVID Alert app

Objectives

We analyzed the effectiveness of the Canadian COVID Alert app on reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths due to the COVID-19 virus.

Methods

Two separate but complementary approaches were taken. First, we undertook a comparative study to assess how the adoption and usage of the COVID Alert app compared to those of similar apps deployed in other regions. Next, we used data from the COVID Alert server and a range of plausible parameter values to estimate the numbers of infections and deaths averted in Canada using a model that combines information on number of notifications, secondary attack rate, expected fraction of transmissions that could be prevented, quarantine effectiveness, and expected size of the full transmission chain in the absence of exposure notification.

Results

The comparative analysis revealed that the COVID Alert app had among the lowest adoption levels among apps that reported usage. Our model indicates that use of the COVID Alert app averted between 6284 and 10,894 infections across the six Canadian provinces where app usage was highest during the March–July 2021 period. This range is equivalent to 1.6–2.9% of the total recorded infections across Canada in that time. Using province-specific case fatality rates, 57–101 deaths were averted during the same period. The number of cases and deaths averted was greatest in Ontario, whereas the proportion of cases and deaths averted was greatest in Newfoundland and Labrador. App impact measures were reported so rarely and so inconsistently by other regions that the relative assessment of impact is inconclusive.

Conclusion

While the nationwide rates are low, provinces with widespread adoption of the app showed high ratios of averted cases and deaths (upper bound was greater than 60% of averted cases). This finding suggests that the COVID Alert app, when adopted at sufficient levels, can be an effective public health tool for combatting a pandemic such as COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.17269/s41997-022-00632-w.

Extended Bayesian endemic–epidemic models to incorporate mobility data into COVID‐19 forecasting

Forecasting the number of daily COVID‐19 cases is critical in the short‐term planning of hospital and other public resources. One potentially important piece of information for forecasting COVID‐19 cases is mobile device location data that measure the amount of time an individual spends at home. Endemic–epidemic (EE) time series models are recently proposed autoregressive models where the current mean case count is modelled as a weighted average of past case counts multiplied by an autoregressive rate, plus an endemic component. We extend EE models to include a distributed‐lag model in order to investigate the association between mobility and the number of reported COVID‐19 cases; we additionally include a weekly first‐order random walk to capture additional temporal variation. Further, we introduce a shifted negative binomial weighting scheme for the past counts that is more flexible than previously proposed weighting schemes. We perform inference under a Bayesian framework to incorporate parameter uncertainty into model forecasts. We illustrate our methods using data from four US counties.

Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Cure on Depressive Symptoms in the Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Hepatitis C Virus Coinfected Population in Canada

BACKGROUND

Depression is common in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), with biological and psychosocial mechanisms at play. Direct acting antivirals (DAA) result in high rates of sustained virologic response (SVR), with minimal side-effects. We assessed the impact of SVR on presence of depressive symptoms in the HIV-HCV coinfected population in Canada during the second-generation DAA era (2013-2020).

METHODS

We used data from the Canadian CoInfection Cohort (CCC), a multicenter prospective cohort of people with a HIV and HCV coinfection, and its associated sub-study on food security. Because depression screening was performed only in the sub-study, we predicted Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-10 classes in the CCC using a random forest classifier and corrected for misclassification. We included participants who achieved SVR and fit a segmented modified Poisson model using an interrupted time series design, adjusting for time-varying confounders.

RESULTS

We included 470 participants; 58% had predicted depressive symptoms at baseline. The median follow-up was 2.4 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.0-4.5.) pre-SVR and 1.4 years (IQR: 0.6-2.5) post-SVR. The pre-SVR trend suggested depressive symptoms changed little over time, with no immediate level change at SVR. However, post-SVR trends showed a reduction of 5% per year (risk ratio: 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .94-.96)) in the prevalence of depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

In the DAA era, predicted depressive symptoms declined over time following SVR. These improvements reflect possible changes in biological pathways and/or better general health. If such improvements in depression symptoms are durable, this provides an additional reason for treatment and early cure of HCV.

Prenatal Exposure to Insecticides and Weight Trajectories Among South African Children in the VHEMBE Birth Cohort

BACKGROUND

Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) or pyrethroid insecticides are sprayed inside dwellings for malaria vector control, resulting in high exposure to millions of people, including pregnant women. These chemicals disrupt endocrine function and may affect child growth. To our knowledge, few studies have investigated the potential impact of prenatal exposure to DDT or pyrethroids on growth trajectories.

METHODS

We investigated associations between gestational insecticide exposure and child growth trajectories in the Venda Health Examination of Mothers, Babies and their Environment, a birth cohort of 751 children born between 2012 and 2013 in South Africa. Based on child weight measured at follow-up and abstracted from medical records, we modeled weight trajectories from birth to 5 years using SuperImposition, Translation and Rotation, which estimated two child-specific parameters: size (average weight) and tempo (age at peak weight velocity). We estimated associations between peripartum maternal concentrations of serum DDT, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, or urinary pyrethroid metabolites and SuperImposition, Translation and Rotation parameters using marginal structural models.

RESULTS

We observed that a 10-fold increase in maternal concentrations of the pyrethroid metabolite trans-3-(2,2,-dicholorvinyl)-2,2-dimethyl-cyclopropane carboxylic acid was associated with a 21g (95% confidence interval = -40, -1.6) smaller size among boys but found no association among girls (Pinteraction = 0.07). Estimates suggested that pyrethroids may be associated with earlier tempo but were imprecise. We observed no association with serum DDT or dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene.

CONCLUSIONS

Inverse associations between pyrethroids and weight trajectory parameters among boys are consistent with hypothesized disruption of androgen pathways and with our previous research in this population, and support the endocrine-disrupting potential of pyrethroids in humans.

Privacy-preserving estimation of an optimal individualized treatment rule: a case study in maximizing time to severe depression-related outcomes

Estimating individualized treatment rules-particularly in the context of right-censored outcomes-is challenging because the treatment effect heterogeneity of interest is often small, thus difficult to detect. While this motivates the use of very large datasets such as those from multiple health systems or centres, data privacy may be of concern with participating data centres reluctant to share individual-level data. In this case study on the treatment of depression, we demonstrate an application of distributed regression for privacy protection used in combination with dynamic weighted survival modelling (DWSurv) to estimate an optimal individualized treatment rule whilst obscuring individual-level data. In simulations, we demonstrate the flexibility of this approach to address local treatment practices that may affect confounding, and show that DWSurv retains its double robustness even when performed through a (weighted) distributed regression approach. The work is motivated by, and illustrated with, an analysis of treatment for unipolar depression using the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Adaptive web-based stress management programs among adults with a cardiovascular disease: A pilot Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the feasibility and acceptability of using a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) to optimize the delivery of a web-based, stress management intervention for patients with a cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

59 patients with a CVD and moderate stress were randomized to a self-directed web-based stress management program (n = 30) or the same intervention plus lay telephone coaching (n = 29). After 6 weeks, non-responders were re-randomized to continue with their initial intervention or switched to motivational interviewing (MI). Feasibility, acceptability, and clinical significance were assessed.

RESULTS

SMART procedures were feasible. Attrition rates were almost twice as high in the web-only group than the lay coach group. This might be because of the low satisfaction (47%) in the web-only group. On average, 1.7/5 modules were completed. Effect sizes for stress and quality of life generally exceeded 0.2 (clinical benchmark), except for the group that initially received lay coaching and then switched to MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that a larger trial would be feasible. Issues pertaining to attrition and satisfaction for non-responders need to be addressed.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Findings contribute to the evidence on how best to develop and deliver e-Health interventions to maximize their efficacy while remaining cost-effective.

Ranking tailoring variables for constructing individualized treatment rules: an application to schizophrenia

As with many chronic conditions, matching patients with schizophrenia to the best treatment options is difficult. Selecting antipsychotic medication is especially challenging because many of the medications can have burdensome side effects. Adjusting or tailoring medications based on patients' characteristics could improve symptoms. However, it is often not known which patient characteristics are most helpful for informing treatment selection. In this paper, we address the challenge of identifying and ranking important variables for tailoring treatment decisions. We consider a value-search approach implemented through dynamic marginal structural models to estimate an optimal individualized treatment rule. We apply our methodology to the Clinical Antipsychotics Trial of Intervention and Effectiveness (CATIE) study for schizophrenia, to evaluate if some tailoring variables have greater potential than others for selecting treatments for patients with schizophrenia (Stroup et al., 2003).

Depressive symptoms are no longer a barrier to HCV treatment initiation in the HIV–HCV co-infected population in Canada

Background

Psychiatric illness was a major barrier for HCV treatment during the Interferon (IFN) treatment era due to neuropsychiatric side effects. While direct acting antivirals (DAA) are better tolerated, patient-level barriers persist. We aimed to assess the effect of depressive symptoms on time to HCV treatment initiation among HIV–HCV co-infected persons during the IFN (2003–2011) and second-generation DAA (2013–2020) eras.

Methods

We used data from the Canadian Co-infection Cohort, a multicentre prospective cohort, and its associated sub-study on Food Security (FS). We predicted Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-10 (CES-D-10) classes for depressive symptoms indicative of a depression risk using a random forest classifier and corrected for misclassification using predictive value-based record-level correction. We used marginal structural Cox proportional hazards models with inverse weighting for competing risks (death) to assess the effect of depressive symptoms on treatment initiation among HCV RNA-positive participants.

Results

We included 590 and 1127 participants in the IFN and DAA eras. The treatment initiation rate increased from 9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 7–10) to 21 (95% CI: 19–22) per 100 person-years from the IFN to DAA era. Treatment initiation was lower among those with depressive symptoms compared to those without in the IFN era (hazard ratio: 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69–0.95)) and was higher in the DAA era (1.19 (95% CI: 1.10–1.27)).

Conclusion

Depressive symptoms no longer appear to be a barrier to HCV treatment initiation in the co-infected population in the DAA era. The higher rate of treatment initiation in individuals with depressive symptoms suggests those previously unable to tolerate IFN are now accessing treatment.

Preserving data privacy when using multi-site data to estimate individualized treatment rules

Precision medicine is a rapidly expanding area of health research wherein patient level information is used to inform treatment decisions. A statistical framework helps to formalize the individualization of treatment decisions that characterize personalized management plans. Numerous methods have been proposed to estimate individualized treatment rules that optimize expected patient outcomes, many of which have desirable properties such as robustness to model misspecification. However, while individual data are essential in this context, there may be concerns about data confidentiality, particularly in multi-center studies where data are shared externally. To address this issue, we compared two approaches to privacy preservation: (i) data pooling, which is a covariate microaggregation technique and (ii) distributed regression. These approaches were combined with the doubly robust yet user-friendly method of dynamic weighted ordinary least squares to estimate individualized treatment rules. In simulations, we extensively evaluated the performance of the methods in estimating the parameters of the decision rule under different assumptions. The results demonstrate that double robustness is not maintained in data pooling setting and that this can result in bias, whereas the distributed regression provides good performance. We illustrate the methods via an analysis of optimal Warfarin dosing using data from the International Warfarin Consortium.

Community-Based Prevalence Estimates of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae Infections Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men in Montréal, Canada

BACKGROUND

Reported cases of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infections are increasing among Canadian men. Estimates of community-based CT/NG prevalence are lacking among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM).

METHODS

Respondent driven sampling was used to recruit GBM in Montréal, Canada between February 2017 and June 2018. Specimens provided from urogenital, rectal, and pharyngeal sites were analyzed using nucleic acid amplification test to detect CT/NG. Prevalence estimates of CT/NG, overall and by anatomical site were calculated. All estimates are respondent-driven sampling-adjusted.

RESULTS

Among 1177 GBM, the prevalence of rectal, urogenital, pharyngeal and overall were respectively 2.4%, 0.4%, 0.4%, and 2.8% for CT infections, and 3.1%, 0.4%, 3.5%, and 5.6% for NG infections. If testing had been limited to the urogenital site, 80% and 94% of CT and NG infections, respectively, would have been missed.

CONCLUSIONS

This community-based study among GBM shows that the CT prevalence was about half of that observed for NG. A large part of CT/NG infections involves only the extragenital sites, highlighting the need for systematic multisite screening regardless of symptoms. In the mist of the COVID-19 pandemic and the limited CT/NG screening capacity due to test kits shortage, it might be considered to prioritize rectal and pharyngeal CT/NG testing over urogenital testing in asymptomatic GBM.

The effects of self-management interventions on depressive symptoms in adults with chronic physical disease(s) experiencing depressive symptomatology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. It is estimated that 20% of adults with chronic physical diseases experience concomitant depression, increasing their risk of morbidity and mortality. Low intensity psychosocial interventions, such as self-management, are part of recommended treatment; however, no systematic review has evaluated the effects of depression self-management interventions for this population. The primary objective was to examine the effect of self-management interventions on reducing depressive symptomatology in adults with chronic disease(s) and co-occurring depressive symptoms. Secondary objectives were to evaluate the effect of these interventions on improving other psychosocial and physiological outcomes (e.g., anxiety, glycemic control) and to assess potential differential effect based on key participant and intervention characteristics (e.g., chronic disease, provider).

METHODS

Studies comparing depression self-management interventions to a control group were identified through a) systematic searches of databases to June 2018 [MEDLINE (1946 -), EMBASE (1996 -), PsycINFO (1967 -), CINAHL (1984 -)] and b) secondary 'snowball' search strategies. The methodological quality of included studies was critically reviewed. Screening of all titles, abstracts, and full texts for eligibility was assessed independently by two authors. Data were extracted by one author and verified by a second.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were retained: 12 for meta-analysis and three for descriptive review. In total, these trials included 2064 participants and most commonly evaluated interventions for people with cancer (n = 7) or diabetes (n = 4). From baseline to < 6-months (T1), the pooled mean effect size was - 0.47 [95% CI -0.73, - 0.21] as compared to control groups for the primary outcome of depression and - 0.53 [95% CI -0.91, - 0.15] at ≥ 6-months (T2). Results were also significant for anxiety (T1) and glycemic control (T2). Self-management skills of decision-making and taking action were significant moderators of depression at T1.

CONCLUSION

Self-management interventions show promise in improving depression and anxiety in those with concomitant chronic physical disease. The findings may contribute to the development of future Self-management interventions and delivering evidence-based care to this population. Further high-quality RCTs are needed to identify sources of heterogeneity and investigate key intervention components.

Immune recovery after antiretroviral therapy initiation: a challenge for people living with HIV in Brazil

Immune recovery reflects health conditions. Our goal was to estimate the time it takes to achieve immune recovery and its associated factors, in people living with HIV (PLHIV), after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. A historical cohort study was performed among PLHIV (> 18 years-old) in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data from healthcare databases. Patients initiating ART between 2009-2018, with T-CD4+ lymphocytes and viral load recorded before and after antiretroviral therapy were included. The outcome is achievement of immune recovery, defined as the first T-CD4+ > 500 cells/µL after ART initiation. Explanatory variables were age, gender, place of residence, year of ART initiation, baseline viral load and T-CD4+, viral load status, and adherence to ART at follow-up. Descriptive analysis, cumulative, and person-time incidences of immune recovery were estimated. Median-time to immune recovery was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Factors associated with immune recovery were assessed by Cox regression. Among 26,430 PLHIV, 8,014 (30%) were eligible. Most were male (67%), mean age 38.7 years, resided in non-central region, median-baseline T-CD4+ = 228 cells/µL (< 200 cells/µL = 43%) and viral load median-baseline = 4.7 log10 copies/mL (detectable viral load = 99%). Follow-up time = 15,872 person-years. Cumulative and incidence rate were 58% (95%CI: 57-58) (n = 4,678) and 29.47 cases/100 person-years, respectively. Median-time to immune recovery was of 22.8 months (95%CI: 21.9-24.0). Women living with HIV, younger than 38 years of age, with T-CD4+ baseline > 200 cells/µL, detectable viral load (baseline), antiretroviral therapy-adherence and undetectable viral load (follow-up) were independently associated with immune recovery. Time to immune recovery remains long and depends on early treatment and antiretroviral therapy-adherence.

Estimating the marginal effect of a continuous exposure on an ordinal outcome using data subject to covariate-driven treatment and visit processes

In the statistical literature, a number of methods have been proposed to ensure valid inference about marginal effects of variables on a longitudinal outcome in settings with irregular monitoring times. However, the potential biases due to covariate-driven monitoring times and confounding have rarely been considered simultaneously, and never in a setting with an ordinal outcome and a continuous exposure. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a methodology for causal inference in such a setting, relying on a proportional odds model to study the effect of the exposure on the outcome. Irregular observation times are considered via a proportional rate model, and a generalization of inverse probability of treatment weights is used to account for the continuous exposure. We motivate our methodology by the estimation of the marginal (causal) effect of the time spent on video or computer games on suicide attempts in the Add Health study, a longitudinal study in the United States. Although in the Add Health data, observation times are prespecified, our proposed approach is applicable even in more general settings such as when analyzing data from electronic health records where observations are highly irregular. In simulation studies, we let observation times vary across individuals and demonstrate that not accounting for biasing imbalances due to the monitoring and the exposure schemes can bias the estimate for the marginal odds ratio of exposure.

Can the Risk of Severe Depression-Related Outcomes Be Reduced by Tailoring the Antidepressant Therapy to Patient Characteristics?

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are the first-line treatment for patients with unipolar depression, yet there is little guidance on which SSRI provides the most benefit to a patient, based on personal characteristics. In this work, we explore whether an individualized treatment strategy can be used by health-care providers to adapt their prescription pattern to reduce the risk of a severe depression-related outcome (SDO) when choosing between citalopram and fluoxetine, 2 commonly prescribed SSRIs. Our population-based cohort study used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, the Hospital Episode Statistics repository, and the Office for National Statistics database in the United Kingdom to create a cohort of individuals diagnosed with depression who were prescribed citalopram or fluoxetine between April 1998 and December 2017. Patients were followed from treatment initiation until occurrence of the SDO outcome, treatment discontinuation, or end of study. To find an optimal treatment strategy, we used dynamic weighted survival modeling, considering patient features such as age, sex, body mass index, previous psychiatric diagnoses, and medications. Our findings suggest that using patient characteristics to tailor the antidepressant drug therapy is associated with an increase of 4 days in the median time to SDO (95% confidence interval: 2, 10 days).

Racial disparities in recurrent preterm delivery risk: mediation analysis of prenatal care timing

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the degree to which the association between race and spontaneous recurrent preterm delivery is mediated by the timing of the first prenatal care visit.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted using the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics Natality Files. We identified 644,576 women with a prior PTB who delivered singleton live neonates between 2011 and 2017. A mediation analysis was conducted using log-binomial regression to evaluate the mediating effect of timing of first prenatal care visit.

RESULTS

During the seven-year period, 349,293 (54.2%) White non-Hispanic women, 131,296 (20.4%) Black non-Hispanic women, 132,367 (20.5%) Hispanic women, and 31,620 (4.9%) Other women had a prior preterm delivery. The risk of late prenatal care initiation was higher in Black non-Hispanic women, Hispanic women, and Other women (women of other racial/ethnic backgrounds) compared to White non-Hispanic women, and the risk of preterm delivery was higher in women with late prenatal care initiation. Between 8 and 15% of the association between race and spontaneous recurrent preterm delivery acted through the delayed timing of the first prenatal care visit.

CONCLUSIONS

Racial disparities in spontaneous recurrent preterm delivery rates can be partly, but not primarily, attributed to timing of first prenatal care visit.

Physical Function and Survival in Older Adults: A longitudinal study accounting for time-varying effects

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

Variation in physical function in older adults over time raises several methodological challenges in the study of its association with survival, many of which have largely been overlooked in previous studies. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between time-varying measures of physical function and survival in men and women aged 70 years and over, while accounting for the time-varying effects of health and lifestyle characteristics.

METHODS

1,846 women and 1,245 men in the Cardiovascular Health Study followed annually for up to 10 years beginning at age 70-74 years were included. We estimated the effect of gait speed and grip strength on survival over the subsequent year, using age as the timescale.

RESULTS

A 0.1m/s higher gait speed was associated with a 12% decrease in the likelihood of death in the subsequent year among women (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.94). There was no statistically significant effect of gait speed on survival among men (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.03), or of grip strength on survival among women (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-1.00) or men (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.01), over one year.

CONCLUSIONS

Upon using time-varying measures of physical function while accounting for time-varying effects of health and lifestyle characteristics, higher gait speed was associated with increased survival among the women in our study. We found no evidence of an association between gait speed and one-year survival in men, or between grip strength and one-year survival in women or men.

Use of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among urban Canadian gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men: a cross-sectional analysis of the Engage cohort study

BACKGROUND

In Canada, gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBM) are disproportionately affected by HIV. Our objective was to describe access to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and identify factors associated with not using PrEP among self-reported HIV-negative or HIV-unknown GBM.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional analysis of the Engage study cohort. Between 2017 and 2019, sexually active GBM aged 16 years or more in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver were recruited via respondent-driven sampling (RDS). Participation included testing for HIV and sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections, and completion of a questionnaire. We examined PrEP access using a health care services model and fit RDS-adjusted logistic regressions to determine correlates of not using PrEP among those for whom PrEP was clinically recommended and who were aware of the intervention.

RESULTS

A total of 2449 GBM were recruited, of whom 2008 were HIV-negative or HIV-unknown; 1159 (511 in Montréal, 247 in Toronto and 401 in Vancouver) met clinical recommendations for PrEP. Of the 1159, 1100 were aware of PrEP (RDS-adjusted proportion: Montréal 84.6%, Toronto 94.2%, Vancouver 92.7%), 678 had felt the need for PrEP in the previous 6 months (RDS-adjusted proportion: Montréal 39.2%, Toronto 56.1%, Vancouver 49.0%), 406 had tried to access PrEP in the previous 6 months (RDS-adjusted proportion: Montréal 20.6%, Toronto 33.2%, Vancouver 29.6%) and 319 had used PrEP in the previous 6 months (RDS-adjusted proportion: Montréal 14.5%, Toronto 21.6%, Vancouver 21.8%). Not using PrEP was associated with several factors, including not feeling at high enough risk, viewing PrEP as not completely effective, not having a primary care provider and lacking medication insurance.

INTERPRETATION

Although half of GBM met clinical recommendations for PrEP, less than a quarter of them reported use. Despite high levels of awareness, a programmatic response that addresses PrEP-related perceptions and health care system barriers is needed to scale up PrEP access among GBM in Canada.

Price discounting as a hidden risk factor of energy drink consumption

OBJECTIVES

Global consumption of caffeinated energy drinks (CED) has been increasing dramatically despite increasing evidence of their adverse health effects. Temporary price discounting is a rarely investigated but potentially powerful food marketing tactic influencing purchasing of CED. Using grocery transaction records generated by food stores in Montreal, we investigated the association between price discounting and purchasing of CED across socio-economic status operationalized by education and income levels in store neighbourhood.

METHODS

The outcome, log-transformed weekly store-level sales of CED, was modelled as a function of store-level percent price discounting, store- and neighbourhood-level confounders, and an interaction term between discounting and each of tertile education and income in store neighbourhood. The model was separately fit to transactions from supermarkets, pharmacies, supercentres, and convenience stores.

RESULTS

There were 18,743, 12,437, 3965, and 49,533 weeks of CED sales from supermarkets, pharmacies, supercentres, and convenience stores, respectively. Percent price discounting was positively associated with log sales of CED for all store types, and the interaction between education and discounting was prominent in supercentres: -0.039 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.051, -0.028] and -0.039 [95% CI: -0.057, -0.021], for middle- and high-education neighbourhoods relative to low-education neighbourhoods, respectively. Relative to low-income areas, the associations of discounting and log CED sales in supercentres for neighbourhoods with middle- and high-income tertile were 0.022 [95% CI: 0.010, 0.033] and 0.015 (95% CI: -0.001, 0.031), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Price discounting is an important driver of CED consumption and has a varying impact across community education and income.

High-Risk Sexual Behavior, Binge Drinking and Use of Stimulants are Key Experiences on the Pathway to High Perceived HIV Risk Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Brazil

In Brazil, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is currently available for gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. As PrEP use depends on an individual's perceived risk, we explored pathways by which potentially modifiable behaviors lead to high perceived HIV risk. Using online surveys (N = 16,667), we conducted a path analysis on the basis of ordered sequences of multivariate logistic regressions. High perceived HIV risk was low (26.3%) compared to condomless receptive anal sex (41.4%). While younger age increased the odds of binge drinking and of condomless receptive anal sex, it was associated with decreased odds of high perceived HIV risk. In contrast, use of stimulants increased the odds of condomless receptive anal sex and of high perceived HIV risk. Our results suggest that binge drinking and use of stimulants are key points in different pathways to high-risk sexual behavior and may lead to different perceptions of HIV risk.